| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 19 2008 10:52 PM |
93L Forum
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Future Kyle or just a "pile"? I'll say this much, I as well as many have been pretty much "punch drunk" from the dizzying degree of activity over recent weeks. No doubt that storm weary people in the coastal Gulf state regions would be happy to see this season end right now. Unfortunately, I do not think this at all likely. Late this afternoon before even realizing that we had a new invest, I was looking for any hint of low to mid level turning east of the Lesser Antilles, in the midst of all the convection and blowoff. Then to see this well defined appearant mid level center a good 5 degrees west, just spinning there! I do not know what the earlier upper level 200mb runs looked like, but from what I can see from looking at the recent 18Z GFS 200mb run, conditions do not appear marginally better for development, they appear optimum. Between 36-48 hours, there appears to be a lazy anticyclone sitting over the E. Central Caribbean. Question now might be, will there be any tropical system there to deepen under it? The little model data available might likely suggest a overall WNW motion, but I have not analyzed the steering conditions much, and for that matter am still groggy from Ike, that I have yet to really even figure if 93L might move more with the deep layer or more lower level ( shallow BAM ) flow. If 93L follows the 12Z HWRF model, than I cannot see much if any development due to shear. If 93L were to move fairly quickly towards the west or NW, than essentially the same would likely occur. However, should 93L be able to simply maintain itself with perhaps a slow west to WNW motion for the next 24 to 36 hours, than I would tend to anticipate development.
Longer range steering? Possible digging trough sweeping the northern Gulf in time. Once again, timing would be everything from a Southern Bahamas recurve to a W. Caribbean to E. Gulf threat - just too early to tell what we are dealing with.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Sep 20 2008 01:23 AM |
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Re: 93L Forum
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I haven't been able to see much movement from 93L today. Another area of interest is in the SW Caribbean and a rather active wave is ready to emerge from Africa. Could be another busy couple of weeks coming up.
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 20 2008 12:20 PM |
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Early Morning roundup
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 20 2008 01:40 PM |
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Re: Early Morning roundup
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Both hurricane models pick up 93L. Both track it NW and take it over Puerto Rico and to the Bahamas. After some eratic movement near the Bahamas Kyle should be picked up by a trough and recurve to the NE with a maximum as a cat. 2. (GFDL). The HWRF shows a WNW-track after the phase of weak steering currents (it isn´t picked up by the trough). At the same time it spins down from a maximum near hurricane strenght.
So developement possible with a lot of different scenarios. Let´s wait and see!
| Evan Johnson |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 20 2008 03:42 PM |
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Re: Early Morning roundup
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well here we go again. ill warm my model plots and wind current products up. the intensity plots have it as a cat 1 hurricane 96 hours from now. if you recall 91L the intensity didnt have it even as a tropical storm for quite some time. reason i say this is because the intensity model plots are calling for this thing to be a decent storm not to far out which means theres a good percentage it will fire up to something. plus the upper level low is weak if not gone and so is all the garbage storms hanging out in the atlantic shearing everything apart. im not too convinced (ever) of the model plots projecting any path while it is stil a wave, id rather wait till its a depression before thinking about where it is going to go.
Wind Steering Product: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
as you can see, there is a lot of room for this thing to go wherever it wants to at the current time.
GFS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008092006&field=850mb+Theta-E&hour=Animation
as you can see by gfs model prediction, they have the thing recurving NW N NE ENE barely scraping the florida state. however, note the formation of what looks to be a decent storm brewing up and moving west.
GOES-E Project Science: http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/overview2/color_lrg/latest.jpg
make sure you view the image in full size.
CLARK Intensity Plots: http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clarki11latest.png
note 96 hours out the estimated intensity of a cat 1 hurricane. 3 out of the 16 models have it pointing as a cat 1 96 hours out. 7 out of the 16 models have it as a tropical storm 48 hours out.
we will have to wait and see. i hope what i have posted will give everyone a good idea of whats currently going on with this thing.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 20 2008 04:50 PM |
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wrong model graphic
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Anyone notice that the model graphic on the front page which is shown as pertaining to 93L is actually the old model graphic for 91 (remnants of Josephine)? ARE there model graphics for 93L? Looks like the tropics have been reloading with heat getting ready for a last surge here in late sept/early oct. Florida has been fairly lucky so far except for flooding from Fay...and these late season, low latitude storms can pose a recurve threat to Florida.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 20 2008 05:33 PM |
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93L models and motion
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There are current ( correct ) models for 93L. Am attaching a link here, http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al932008.png
Note however, that given the appearant and approx. LLC of 93L, around 15.5N and 65W, the models seem (to me) to initialize the system to far to the west by several degrees. That, and the fact that the upper shear increases "if" 93L either moves more northward or if to attempt to develop more towards the north, than I would tend to lean towards an assumption of any developing system to tend to struggle and eventually stay well east of the Southeast Conus. What is odd to me, is that despite the tendancy of the 12Z Shallow and Mid level BAM models, I just do not quite see the level of easterly surge that would seem to continue to push 93L more westward as they indicate. Whether it is even possible to yet determine any "initial" motion or not, as it stands now the overall area of disturbed weather simply seems to be "propogating" in an overall northwest motion. Any develpment that might occur as far east as 65W ( or eastward ), would seem to move in such an overall NW motion as well. If in time, 93L should move north of Puerto Rico or HIspanola, than I just cannot see how longer term motion would bring any eventual tropical cyclone towards the S.E. Conus. Pretty much in line with how the 12Z GFS would seem to carry the system for now.
That all said, should 93L somehow maintains a weak low to mid level circulation and somehow develops south of Hispanola all the while tracking as far west as 70W longitude, than I could see a possible evolution that could be a cause of concern to Haiti, Cuba, and possibly Florida. Just not looking as if this would be the most reasonable scenario for the moment.
Though certainly not a likely candidate ( at least for any short term develpment at all ), I would be far more concerned with any eventual development in the western Caribbean as any potential impact to the Gulf states or Eastern U.S. Fortunately, the EURO model, which I have tremendous respect for, does not seem to be indicating any significant develpment in the Caribbean at all, for the moment.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 20 2008 05:53 PM |
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Re: wrong model graphic
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The link below is right from Skeetobite's web site displaying 93L.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=93&a=2
| Evan Johnson |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 20 2008 11:17 PM |
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Re: wrong model graphic
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i smell tropical storm kyle brewing up quickly. right now there is some some shearing going on but this thing is still quite organized. currently moving westward at 15 mph. if you notice the a majority of the latest intesity plots have it becoming a tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon/evening.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clarki11latest.png
lets keep our eyes out for this one.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 21 2008 08:23 AM |
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Re: wrong model graphic
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Looking much more organized, but will still take time for slow developement. It´s on a NNW track.
Interesting 0:00 UTC-runs of the hurricane modells. Both modells show future Kyle to move generally NNW, at times very slowly and than a beginning NW-W turn in response to a high to the north at the height of the North Carolina as a possible Major Hurricane in the end of the 5-day-forecast period. So this one has to be watched closely the next days!
| Evan Johnson |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 21 2008 02:25 PM |
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Re: wrong model graphic
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looks to me the model runs this morning have this thing shooting straight up maybe a little to the NNW. very odd for a storm in this area.
latest wind steering: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
you can clearly see the frontal boundry acting as a wall for the entire southeast coast. how long it will hang around i dont know but we will have to watch closely.
p.s. bob harts experimental forecast track here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/INVEST93L.d1-merge.track2.png
| Evan Johnson |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 22 2008 03:01 PM |
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Re: wrong model graphic
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its been awhile since something has been said about 93l. i will take the liberty of doing so.
latest wind steering: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
im a little confused on how they gather a north movement from that. can a met chime in? thanks.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Sep 22 2008 05:51 PM |
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Re: Steering Currents
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Your link illustrated steering currents from 850-700mb which is more like low-level flow (below 10kft). Since the low associated with Invest 93L is now over the extreme eastern tip of the Dominican Republic and drifting north, the upper level flow probably already has more of an influence. This difference in flow creates some vertical shearing and contributes to the lack of any rapid organization. Here is a link that I like to use to get an idea of the upper level steering at 300mb (30kft):
SFSU 300MB Jetstream - 48 hours
Charts are also available for 00, 12, 24 and 36 hours. If the system eventually develops, the upper level steering patterns would suggest a possible concern for an area from the mid-Atlantic coast to the Northeast coast.
Cheers,
ED
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 23 2008 04:19 PM |
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Re: Steering Currents
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I still cannot see a Northward motion from this system. Seems to me that it has and is drifting slowly Westward.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 23 2008 04:50 PM |
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Re: Steering Currents
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Agreed. It's current location is west of PR. The majority of convection is south of Hispanoila.
This is not an issue of shear.. and yes the land mass to it's north took a bit out of him but it's hard for anyone to make me believe his center is over land and not south of Hispanola.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Choose a loop, they all look the same.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ft-l.jpg
Perhaps the tropical disturbance will be relocated. Can't wish something away just because you want to..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 23 2008 07:50 PM |
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Re: Steering Currents
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Does anyone think that this system will be affecting the southernmost penisula of New Jersey on Saturday?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 23 2008 09:03 PM |
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Re: Steering Currents
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Most of the models are showing a weak system going well East of the US toward Nova Scotia. Considering that the input data is weak, I wouldn't hedge my bets until/if this system even develops. It looks like they are developing a stronger mid-latitude system just off the coast of the Carolinas/Virginia.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 24 2008 06:18 PM |
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Re: Steering Currents
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I'm not convinced 93L will ever get its act together, but the models have now moved to the west, now centered just to the west of Boston. Could be a pretty messy storm in NE if it does materialize.