| saltysenior |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 14 2010 04:02 PM |
2010 forecast
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there is a post named ''outlook for the 2010 season'' , where members of this forum guess on the amount of activity this year.....this post is locked and i want to change my predictions to save face.......isn't that was the big bucks gov. forecasters did the other day????
Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Aug 14 2010 04:14 PM |
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Re: 2010 forecast
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Yes there is, but that forecast thread closes around June 1st every year. Since its a fun competition it would have no way to fairly score it at the end of the season if constant updates were permitted. The idea is to compare our forecasts against the final season totals to see how well we did (or not). Don't worry about saving face - lots of folks including myself have sat down to a good 'crow dinner' at the end of the season
ED
| saltysenior |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 14 2010 05:06 PM |
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Re: 2010 forecast
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the reason i started my post,was to point out the mistakes made last year and so far for 1/2 of the '10 season by the professional ''experts''........the weather bureau and other forecasters are not ever held accountable for their forecasts......i'm not only talking only of hurricanes....they mess up 50% of the time with a forecast for tomorrow...
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Aug 14 2010 07:55 PM |
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Re: 2010 forecast
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Because Meteorology is an inexact science with too many variables that can alter a forecast made with all good intentions, the court system has ruled, at the Federal level, that meteorologists and the agencies that they work for cannot be held legally liable or responsible for losses that result from a busted forecast. Think about it - if these punishments were allowed, there would be no forecasts because no one would be able to handle the litigation costs associated with that type of work. Meteorologists are indeed held accountable in ways that the general public seldom ever sees.
Because CFHC does not permit personal attacks - and that interpretation includes agencies and businesses both public and private - we just don't wander down the path that takes pot-shots when things don't turn out quite like we think that they should have. However, meteorologists constantly try to learn from their mistakes - which is always good advice no matter what your job is. In reality, almost every NWS site has a forecast accuracy of at least 85% - often higher. Some folks will always be better at their job than others in the same vocation - and that includes meteorologists.
Remember, its always okay on this site to express a differing opinion or analysis or forecast. If I disagree with your assessment I will tell you why, but if I disagree with 'you', we'll talk about it in private and not post it on the site.
ED