Cat II Hurricane Paula located about 100 miles south southeast of Cozumel, Mexico at 12/21Z moving north northwest at 9 knots toward the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

Paula will probably remain at Cat II, although a brief intensification to Cat III is still possible later tonight. Paula is also expected to slow down a little with more of a northerly course early Wednesday and should be in the Yucatan Channel by Wednesday afternoon on more of a northeasterly course. Beyond Wednesday evening the future track of Paula is still somewhat uncertain. The hurricane could move east or even southeast and remain south of Cuba. It could track more easterly across the western half of Cuba - or it could move east northeast through the Florida Straits. As the storm approaches 22N, windshear will begin to weaken the cyclone. With a track south of Cuba the storm will certainly maintain good structure whereas a track across the island would disrupt it considerably and a track through the Straits would weaken it with ever increasing shear. The models are still bouncing around between these various solutions, however, given the faster pace of the more northerly track today, the 'Cuban' solution or the 'Straits' solution seem more likely now, and a hybrid of these two solutions is also a possibility, i.e., first into the Straits and then landfall into Cuba - and not out of the question that it could cross back into the western Caribbean again.
ED