| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 06 2011 03:44 PM |
Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate
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The Bay of Campeche system is now 96L with a 1008 mlb low and estimated winds of 25mph.
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2011 04:17 PM |
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Re: Area of interest 96L
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011
THE MAIN AREAS OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE EASTERN LOW...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z DGEX MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL OR HYBRID LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALLOWING IT TO MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00-06Z GFS...SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PRIOR GFS RUNS ALONG WITH MANY 00-06Z GEFS MEMBERS SHOW DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THUS...THIS SCENARIO DESERVES SOME MERIT.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 06 2011 11:23 PM |
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Re: Area of interest 96L
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Patience...patience...patience...I read that same discussion earlier today...this system will be with us for quite some time given the upper air pattern across Pac NW, Canada and Post-Tropical Lee and its upper air cutoff low.
Ed Dunham
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| (Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 07 2011 11:14 PM |
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate
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Tropical Storm Nate located about 135 miles west northwest of Campeche, Mexico, at 08/03Z - and drifting east with sustained winds of 40 knots (probably generous) and a central pressure of 1003MB. The following Tropical Storm Warning is in effect:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
Earlier today Campeche reported sustained winds of 35mph - in the past few hours the pressure at Campeche has been on the rise.
Campeche Current Weather Conditions
Most (but not all) of the convection is displaced to the south of the center. The high resolution models support a slow movement to the north and then west over the next few days, however, there really are no steering currents for the next couple of days so a very slow and erratic drift is likely. With the trough in place from the Bay of Campeche northeastward across the Florida peninsula also stationary for the moment, an eventual drift with some northward component seems reasonable. The reliability of any projection beyond two days is probably small.
There is south to southwesterly shear along the trough - some of it moderate - so I'm not in the same camp with regard to Nate eventually reaching hurricane status- especially since the shear zone is progged to remain in place for two or three days. SSTs are certainly warm enough to support some intensification if the cyclone doesn't get sheared apart or drift over land before the shear abates.
ED
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2011 11:44 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate
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I am not too sure about Nate reaching Hurricane status either. (A minimal Hurricane with winds of 75 mph likely, but >80 mph not so sure.) The latest NAM shows a weaker system than past runs previously forecasted. Depending on where the mid-level low cuts off across the East Central US, Nate may be impacted by decent shear throughout much of the forecast period. Looking at the CIMSS site, I see the dry air (courtesy of Texas) that the NHC was referring to in their latest discussion. I am not sure if this will be a significant factor, if Nate organizes as models suggest. He could very well close off with little dry air intrusion. A very interesting situation with Nate. I'm sure things will become clearer over the next few days, though.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2011 09:29 AM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate
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Looking at models this morning there seems to be much less certainty about where Nate is headed. Before, the more reliable models trended it to the north then west. Right now, several of those have swung way over toward the east. I know it is still a weak system and hard to get a handle on. Any strong feelings from the Mets out there about whether this thing could slide up that frontal boundary an into Florida later in the week?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2011 12:17 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate
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The latest GFS runs on Maria and Nate are pretty ominous. GFS has been very reliable all year, but ECMWF is the one that seems to be the most reliable on these two systems, at least according to the NHC. The European has never really grabbed onto Maria and still doesn't, and sends Nate toward northern Mexico (perhaps the best solution for parched Texas).
Lots of model divergence on these two systems.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 09 2011 12:46 AM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate
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Nate has now drifted north of 20N latitude - located at 20.2N 92.1W at 09/04Z. The center is again exposed this evening with convection displaced to the south of the center. It is difficult to envision a 60 knot tropical storm under such sheared conditions, however, the pressure has dropped to 994MB.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 10 2011 07:32 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate
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Although surface pressure has increased, northerly windshear has decreased and outflow has improved in the northern portion of the cyclone. Convection is also wrapping around the center so chances for additional development have again increased. Nate had been drifting west and currently the system is almost stationary, but a slow westward or west southwestward motion should resume this evening. Updated Watches/Warnings are as follows:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO NORTH OF TUXPAN
* MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO NORTH OF TUXPAN
* MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
ED