Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Jan 01 2012 05:46 AM |
Outlook for 2012
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CSU decided not to issue a quantitative (numerical) forecast in December because they felt that ENSO forecasts do not show any skill at the 6 to 9 month forecast period (probably true) but I think that a forecast is still feasible - if nothing more than an initial starting point which can be based on long range SST projections that are still being issued by NOAA. TSR did issue an initial outlook for 2012 on 12/7/11 with a forecast of 14/7/3.
NOAA expects the current La Nina to continue through the Summer of the 2012 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. They also expect that the SST anomaly over just about the entire Atlantic basin will remain neutral for the full tropical season. With that expectation, the best analog years for 2012 would seem to be 1956 (8/4/2), 1975 (9/6/3), 1971 (13/6/2) and 1932 (11/6/4). 1932 is more for likely track pattern rather than numbers. 2000 (15/8/3) was also considered, but rejected as a good analog because during 2000 a warm anomaly (rather than a neutral condition) existed in the central Atlantic along 30N.
My initial outlook for the 2012 season is for 11 or 12 named storms (I'll firm up the number in the Spring) with 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes - pretty much a normal season of activity. Primary U.S. landfall threat zone looks like the Florida panhandle westward to the Texas coast (all of it). In other words, the initial pattern suggests more of a northern Gulf Coast season for 2012, but that could certainly change in the next six months.
If you feel the urge, you can add your own initial thoughts for the upcoming season - and your numbers can be revised as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. You don't need to provide any rationale for your numbers - unless you wish to.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Mar 02 2012 02:49 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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The latest NCEP forecast issued on February 27th suggests that ENSO Neutral conditions in the Spring will evolve to a weak El Nino during the Summer that will become a weak to moderate El Nino in the Fall/Winter. Neutral SST anomalies in the tropical north Atlantic are expected to shift to a warmer than normal basin for the September through November timeframe. With the basin anomaly now expected to be turning warmer during the peak and the latter portion of the hurricane season, the 2012 seasonal outlook for Atlantic tropical cyclones now indicates a slightly above normal level of activity.
The expectation is for 13 named storms with 8 of them becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes. The best analog years are now: 1996: 13/9/4 2001: 15/9/4 1951: 10/8/5
Although no particular target area is indicated by the analog years, the entire East coast seems likely to remain as the primary threat zone for 2012 activity.
For those that wish to post their expectations for the season, this thread will remain open until the season gets underway on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Mar 11 2012 07:20 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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I'm going with 16/7/3 this season. Also, I'm going all in with an early season named system landfall in the Gulf Big Bend area and a late season system making landfall in the North East anywhere north of Maryland all the way to Canada...I think Gaia is ready to give us a spanking...Where? It's all up to her.....Be Happy and Keep Smiling.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Apr 01 2012 01:51 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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Latest expectation still suggest ENSO neutral conditions this Spring will warm to a modest El Nino event by late Summer and Fall in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. The tropical Atlantic SSTs are now expected to remain neutral throughout the hurricane season - and slightly cooler than previously forecast.
On April 4th, CSU will issue its tropical cyclone forecast for the 2012 season, and an earlier discussion issued by CSU on March 21st suggested that the upcoming season is expected to be less active than normal.
With the likelihood that the tropical Atlantic will be a little cooler than previously expected and considerably cooler than last season, a downward adjustment in the 2012 Outlook seems realistic. I've lowered by expectations to a more normal to slightly less than normal level of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The new best-fit analog years are 2009, 2006 and 1968.
ADDED: 1951 is also a reasonably good analog year.
There is a good chance for an early season storm (June or earlier) this year.
Now its your turn to post your own forecast for the season - rationale is welcomed, but not required. Please post specific numbers for number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes rather than a range of numbers, i.e., 10/5/2 rather than 9-11, 4-6, and 1-3. At the end of the season we'll take a look back and see how well we did. This thread will remain open until the start of the hurricane season on June 1st - up until then you can adjust your forecast as many times as you wish.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Apr 04 2012 09:49 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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CSU has posted its initial forecast for 2012 at 10/4/2.
TSR has posted its updated forecast for 2012 at 13/6/3.
ED
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Apr 10 2012 12:45 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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10/6/3: cooler SST's and the now "moderate" El Nino which will hamper late season development. I will rethink after the 12th when TSR updates.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Apr 17 2012 04:52 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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TSR on 4/12 (rounded) 12/6/3. I'll check.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Apr 17 2012 06:57 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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I'll go with 11/6/3
| GlenJohnson |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Apr 28 2012 02:14 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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12/6/4, we never really saw winter, so things stayed warm. Probably go higher, we're way past due. In the immortal words from Jurrasic Park, " Everybody hang on to your butts."
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Apr 29 2012 04:49 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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I'm going to go with 14/7/4.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Apr 30 2012 04:58 AM |
Re: Outlook for 2012
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New Season, already?? whew....., the older I get the faster time seems to move
Well, will take my stab at the 2012 Season numbers. Am guessing 13/6/2. Given the cooler SST's out there, am thinking they'll be less long tracking CV systems. Also think there may be a good deal more activity overall forming/moving close to the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, & E. Gulf.
Though still about a month out, Happy & Safe season everyone!
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Apr 30 2012 06:53 PM |
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Outlook for 2012
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I am going with 13/7/4
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 09 2012 01:58 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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Im going with 14/8/3
| M.A. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 10 2012 12:16 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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Im going with 15/7/3.
| jessiej |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu May 17 2012 01:01 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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11/4/2
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat May 19 2012 04:10 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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In the Atlantic, the earlier forecast for slightly cooler than normal SSTs has changed to a forecast for slightly warmer than normal SSTs. In the Pacific, the earlier forecast for moderate El Nino conditions during the upcoming hurricane season has been revised to ENSO neutral to a weak El Nino. These trends indicate slightly more favorable conditions for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone formation, but upper air conditions are still expected to be less than ideal for tropical cyclone formation this year. 2006, 1976, 1951 and 1968 remain as the best analog years for the 2012 season.
In less than two weeks this thread will close when the season starts. You still have time to throw your hat and your forecast for the total number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes into the thread before June 1st. We'll summarize the forecasts at the end of the season and see how well we did.
Cheers,
ED
| GlenJohnson |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat May 19 2012 11:38 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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Quote:
In the Atlantic, the earlier forecast for slightly cooler than normal SSTs has changed to a forecast for slightly warmer than normal SSTs
Quote:What did I tell ya? Still think it will go higher, so I'm going 14/8/5.
12/6/4, we never really saw winter, so things stayed warm.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed May 23 2012 01:02 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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I'm probably going to regret this, but with the Atlantic now expected to be slightly warmer than normal, and since your first forecast is often your best forecast, I'm going to revert to my original forecast of 11/6/3.
This is the lowest input that we have ever had on our early season guesstimates. You still have until June 1st to add your outlook for the season before this thread is closed.
Cheers,
ED
| riche |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu May 24 2012 11:38 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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Hope you guys dont mind a complete Rookie from across the pond joining in here!
I love coming to the States and the Carribean - always coimg over between June and September when the weather seems to get a little interesting so I always keep an eye on the depressions.
I am going for 16/5/2
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 24 2012 12:15 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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Okay, I'll go with 14/8/4. Note I rarely ever do this guesstimate, however today I will. The four might be high if we weaker storms forming close in or long trackers that have problems stacking themselves probably but I think we could get there.
When in a "neutral" phase it's hard to tell if this is where we are staying or if we are going into El Nino. It's a phase.
Water is warm, the season has started early and for numerous reasons I'll say we will have at least 14 named systems.. as always time will tell.
Like to hear some rationalization for the numbers by people posting.
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 25 2012 05:08 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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I'm thinking this season is going to be a little more active than average with 17 storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major canes.
This early start will make up for a slower late September and October.
I see the GOM being hit from La. Eastward to Panama City by a major cane. I see fewer mid Atlantic storms and an active Western Carribean year.
The Eastern seaboard from the Ga/Fla line north will not see much action but will see a few minor systems make glancing blows.
| gsand |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun May 27 2012 01:58 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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Greetings all from Palm Bay.
Hard year to predict but I'll go with 16/10/5.
Stay safe everyone!
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun May 27 2012 10:03 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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I'm going to stick with my general theory that activity will be higher than normal: 19 Tropical Storms, 10 Hurricanes, and 6 Major Hurricanes.
I wonder if the 2 early season storms will bump the number up a bit. Either way, I think systems will form often, but will often be sheared. The ones that make it though, will have very warm waters to work with. so a higher percentage of storms should make it to major Hurricane status.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue May 29 2012 12:08 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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Greetings, everyone. I hope you are having a safe and healthy 2012.
My best guess for 2012 is for 14 storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 majors.
It is worth noting that we have had two named storms, already.
Despite these roughly "average" totals (at least since 1995 has been concerned), I expect a greater chance for landfalls, including higher than average odds of US landfalls.
If I am right, and we have fewer names, but more landfalls than usual, that means that a larger percentage of 2012 named systems than usual in the Atlantic basin will impact land - which would just go to show how average (and of course even below average totals) do not necessarily result in average to below average impacts.
My rationale for 14, 6 and 3 may easily be busted - and perhaps by a lot, should:
1) an El Nino begins prior to September (expect my guess could be much too high in that case) , OR
2) we actually slide back into a La Nina phase by September (expect my guess could be much too low in that case).
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue May 29 2012 01:22 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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Never tried this before. I'll go with 15, 7 and 3. That's way off the chart.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 29 2012 04:52 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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I'll go on the high end at 16/8/3 with the early start. I'm never any good at this anyways!!
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed May 30 2012 04:20 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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A total of 28 forecasts were submitted last year, but only 18 so far this year with just 2 days to go before the thread is closed on June 1st. No reasoning is required - just submit your best guess on what the totals for Named Storms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes will be for this season.
Cheers,
ED
| okihabu |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed May 30 2012 01:27 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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My predictions for 2012 are 13-8-4.
| beachcrafts |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed May 30 2012 03:48 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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I'm going with 15/5/3
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 30 2012 06:10 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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I've posted in another forum here... can't remember what I posted tho am sure Ed does...
Interesting reading the thoughts here as we watch two pre-season storms form close in and affect land.
I think the thoughts are more interesting the number and I'd like to ask how many of the storms would affect land (US in particular) as an added number of interest.
I think I said 13/6/4 but would also think on upping that first number if another early storm forms.
Early storms form for many reasons, in many areas of the basin.
So far I've driven through weather from both Alberto and Beryl, am wondering on where Chris will form.. and how many will affect land as I think the pattern favors continued close in forming storms... maybe I'm wrong. Time will tell.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu May 31 2012 04:14 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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Actually you posted 14/8/4 - it is on Page 1 of this thread. I'll leave your numbers as that unless you post something different later today.
The latest NCEP forecast issued on 5/29 still suggests a weak El Nino during the mid and latter portion of the upcoming season.
ED
| srquirrely |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu May 31 2012 09:47 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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18/9/4 Just 'cause...
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu May 31 2012 11:02 PM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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14/6/3 for me this year
| IMTechspec |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2012 12:26 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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14 / 8 / 3
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 01 2012 03:58 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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....and with 3 minutes remaining until the official Atlantic Hurricane Season & what might be the final entry before midnight (well, ok "adjustment" to entry), armed with some bad canned Pabst beer and some week old twinkies by my side..... will make the strategic adustment to my forecast to be: 14/7/1
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Jun 01 2012 04:02 AM |
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Re: Outlook for 2012
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This thread is now closed and we'll summarize the results at the end of the season. Thanks to all of you who participated - including my own, we ended up with 24 forecasts. The average of all forecasts: 14/7/3.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Oct 18 2012 03:15 PM |
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2012 Seasonal Forecast Results
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Although the Season still has about six weeks remaining, the trends in the basin hint that the season is rapidly coming to a close.
2012 was yet another highly active season with a total (so far) of 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. If the end of the season does not produce anymore activity, 2012 would become the first season to record 17 named storms. The pre-season expectation by many (myself included) was that a weak El Nino was going to occur and that the seasonal tropical activity would be low, but Sea Surface Temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific stayed neutral - and busy seasons often occur during ENSO neutral conditions. As a group, CFHC didn't do so good this year with an average total forecast error of 7. The CSU forecast in April was 10/4/2 - for a total error of 13 - and every CFHC forecast did better than that! The season started with 4 named storms before July 1st - which is a record - and quickly put a dent in many of the early season predictions. A total of 24 forecasts were submitted and the average forecast was 14/7/3. The forecasts were graded for total deviation (plus or minus) from the actual number in each of the three categories and then totaled to get a final score for each forecast. The levels of skill and the number of forecasts in each grouping were as follows:
SCORE
0-2 Outstanding (none)
3-4 Excellent - 3 forecasts
5-6 Good - 8 forecasts
7-8 Fair - 8 forecasts
9-12 Hmm - 5 forecasts
The best score this season was 4 by stormtiger, Lamar-Plant City, and srquirrely (thats two years in a row with good scores for Lamar-Plant City and srquirrely). If another named storm should occur before the end of the season, srquirrely would become the outright winner with a score of 3. Good forecast scores of 5 or 6 were recorded by B.C. Francis, weathernet, Hurricane Frederick 1979, M.A., riche, gsand, danielw and IMTechspec.
I'll start a new thread in January with a first outlook for the 2013 season. 2007 might be an analog year for 2013 but thats still uncertain at this early date.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Oct 26 2012 03:40 PM |
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Re: 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results - Updated
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With Sandy and Tony, the totals for the season are now 19/10/1 - a remarkably busy season, yet the hurricane drought in Florida has now reached 7 years and 2 days which is also remarkable.
The adjusted tally is as follows:
SCORE
0-2 Outstanding (none)
3-4 Excellent - (none)
5-6 Good - 2 forecasts
7-8 Fair - 5 forecasts
9-15 Hmm - 17 forecasts
Certainly not a good year for seasonal forecasts
Bloodstar (19/10/6) and srquirrely (18/9/4) both had good forecasts with a score of 5.
ED