| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat May 12 2012 12:37 PM |
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Pre-season Invest 92L in North Atlantic
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A healthy non-tropical low, Invest 92L, centered south-south-west of the Azores in the north central Atlantic, is acquiring some tropical characteristics today, making for a pre-season hybrid system.
Invest 92L is embedded within a large upper level low that is sufficiently colder than the sea surface temperatures. Shear is light and the surface circulation is becoming less dependent on its parent upper low. This region is sometimes favorable for full tropical transition, and it appears that 92L has the potential to become a named system - subtropical, or even marginally tropical.
Recently 92L was estimated to have maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph, but this could now be conservative given the continued improving structure and slightly deeper convection seen within the past few hours.
Subtropical and tropical cyclones that form in this region usually max out with sustained winds of between 35 and 65 MPH, rarely higher, and tend to drop moderate rain.
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat May 12 2012 01:45 PM |
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Re: Pre-season Invest 92L in North Atlantic
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Nice Catch!!
Hot off of the Press...
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN