Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue Jan 01 2013 01:00 AM
Outlook for 2013

Its time once again to start the annual guesstimate of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin - and this year its no easy task. The Atlantic has recorded 19 named storms in each of the past three seasons which is an uncommonly high level of tropical cyclone activity. Some indicators, like the expected above normal SSTs in the Atlantic Basin during the upcoming hurricane season, suggest yet another busy season, however other indicators, like climatology after a series of busy seasons and neutral ENSO expectations in the Pacific 3.4 region, would support a more normal level of activity. TSR issued its initial outlook for the basin on December 5th, 2012 with a forecast for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, i.e., another rather busy season. Note that there has never been 4 seasons in a row with a high level of activity, but that doesn't mean that it can't happen.

Its been difficult to find a good analog year for the upcoming season and 2001 (15/9/4) is the only one that I can find that vaguely fits the anticipated ENSO SST pattern. The year with the best fit for the expected Atlantic temperature pattern is 2006 (9/4/2), so there is quite a large variation between the two analogs. I'll start with an above average seasonal forecast of 13/7/3 and perhaps by early April the murky crystal ball will clear up a little.

You can start posting your own numbers for the upcoming season - and you can revise your forecast as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. Remember to post precise numbers rather than a range of numbers. Rationale for your forecast is strictly optional, i.e., its not required. We'll check back and see how we did at the end of the season.
Cheers,
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Mar 08 2013 12:09 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

SST trends over the past couple of months and NCEP projections suggest that 2013 will quickly evolve into an ENSO neutral year. SSTs are expected to be above normal in the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea for all but the latter part of the 2013 hurricane season.

The best analog years, 1968 and 2006, hint at a season of below normal activity, however, the warmer than normal SST expectations should increase the activity to more of a normal season. An above normal level of activity no longer seems as likely as it did in January. With those somewhat conflicting considerations, I'll lower my initial forecast for the season to 11 named storms, 7 hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes. Other less representative analog years are 1990 and 2001.

CSU will issue their initial numerical forecast on April 10th and TSR will update their initial December outlook on April 5th. You can issue your own guesstimate for the season in this thread anytime between now and the start of the 2013 season on June 1st - and update your numbers as often as you wish.
ED


B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Mar 11 2013 04:35 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

I'm trying to put my 2013 forcast together. Who came close on the 2012 tropical prediction contest we do each year. I may have missed that post. 14/7/2...???

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue Mar 12 2013 07:51 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

See the last post in the "Outlook for 2012" thread in the 2012 Storm Forum for a quick summary of the forecast results for the 2012 season.
ED


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Wed Mar 20 2013 12:37 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

At this time it appears we will begin the hurricane season in neutral ENSO. I believe the SSTs are higher then last year and so I will go with an aggressive year. I believe we will have 16 storms with 8 hurricanes and 4 major.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Apr 05 2013 11:23 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

The latest SST trends and ENSO forecasts still suggest a neutral ENSO year (on the negative side of neutral in the -0.1 to -0.5 range). These SST projections prompt a new set of analog years as follows:

1996 13/9/6
2001 15/9/4
1981 12/7/3

The tropical Atlantic basin should be a little cooler than last year but still above normal, so I'm going back to my initial thoughts for a slightly above normal season of activity with a forecast of 13/8/3.

The latest forecast issued today from TSR remains unchanged at 15/8/3. CSR issues its numerical forecast for the season on April 10th.

You can enter your own guesstimate for the season (no rational required) until this thread closes on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Apr 10 2013 10:34 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

CSR's initial forecast for the season was released today and projects totals of 18/9/4 - a highly active season.

TWC also issued its forecast for the season today : 16/9/5.

Additional analog years are 1984 and 1949.
ED


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Wed Apr 10 2013 12:05 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

CSU has also viewed 2004 as an analog year. I also wonder if many storms are expected to generate from the warmer SST in the eastern Atlantic; hence, the high numbers of expected hurricanes.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Apr 10 2013 10:21 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Regarding 2004, I noticed that also, however, from an ENSO SST point of view, it doesn't seem to be a very good analog. The NOAA ENSO forecast for the remainder of the year expects Neutral conditions with anomalies from -0.1 to -0.5. Here are the actual monthly ENSO 3.4 anomalies for 2012 and 2013 (so far) vs. the actual monthly anomalies for 2003 and 2004.

2012
-0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.3
2013
-0.6 -0.7 -0.4

2003
1.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
2004
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

ED


JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Sat Apr 27 2013 09:04 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

I'll go ahead and lay down a random guesstimate of;

17 Named Storms
13 Hurricanes
8 Major Hurricanes

A bit on the high end intensity wise but I have this feeling in my bones for 2013.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed May 01 2013 12:30 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

15/8/4 no particular reason

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Wed May 01 2013 04:22 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

For no particular reason: 17/6/4

beachcrafts
(Registered User)
Thu May 02 2013 01:32 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

15/7/3 guesstimating.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri May 03 2013 12:13 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

The latest NOAA SST ENSO trends and projections (as of 4/28) still call for ENSO neutral conditions in the EASTPAC - in fact just about flat neutral along the 'zero' anomaly line for the remainder of the year. This keeps 2001, 1981 and 1996 as the best analog years - so no change from my earlier outlook for an above average season of activity at 13/8/3, i.e., 13 named storms, of which 8 will be hurricanes of which 3 will be major (Cat III or greater) hurricanes.

The start of the 2013 hurricane season is now less than a month away - which means that you have about 4 weeks (until this thread closes) to throw your seasonal predictions into the annual contest. Join the guesstimates. Remember to use exact numbers rather than a range of numbers - it makes it easier to determine who had the best guess at the end of the season.
ED


GlenJohnson
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat May 04 2013 10:14 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

20, 12, 6.....

Hurricane29
(Weather Guru)
Sat May 11 2013 12:44 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Very active season.. 18/9/4

I am expecting at least 3 U.S. hurricane landfalls...of which at least one will be a major hurricane.


Kigeliakitten
(Registered User)
Sat May 11 2013 04:12 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Totally a wild guess:

20/10/5


gsand
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun May 12 2013 09:19 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

14/8/5, no particular reason.

2+weeks to go, everyone stay safe this year...


Wingman51
(Weather Guru)
Mon May 13 2013 11:14 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

What the heck - 19/9/5 - - I don't see a real strong analog to 2004 - Let's keep it that way

weatherhead
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon May 13 2013 09:00 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

What the heck, 19/11/4

CarolinaGurl
(Weather Watcher)
Tue May 21 2013 09:10 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

13/8/5



stormtiger
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue May 21 2013 09:53 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Here in La. we've had a relatively cool May with fronts coming through and on into the GOM fairly regularly unlike last year when we had 90 degree plus temperatures and drought conditions in May. With the fronts we've had a lot of rain too.

With that in mind I see a limited season this year compared to recent seasons; however, I want to temper that with the notion that TWC seems to be more agressive in naming storms than they have been a decade or two ago and consequently we see more marginal storms named than we once did.

I'm going with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes but only 3 major canes. I think this season will be more heavily weighted to the Atlantic Ocean and the GOM will be relatively quiet with only tropical storms, no canes.

I think this season is going to be relatively weak like last season, but all it takes is a Sandy to hit in the right spot under the right circumstances to cause a lot of grief.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun May 26 2013 12:40 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

So far only 15 participants in the 2013 version of guesstimating the seasons totals. This thread will close on June 1st at 00Z (8PM EDST on May 31st) so you still have until Friday evening to toss your numbers into the fray.
Cheers,
ED


JimB
(Registered User)
Sun May 26 2013 09:28 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

10/7/2

Joeyfl
(Weather Guru)
Sun May 26 2013 09:39 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

13 Tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon May 27 2013 01:59 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

15/10/5

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon May 27 2013 02:27 PM
Attachment
Re: Outlook for 2013

Another interesting season up ahead. With an expected neutral ENSO and a continuation of the positive MDO the safe bet, the one that requires as little thinking as possible, is for an above-average season as far as total numbers of named storms/hurricanes/majors are concerned.

Unfortunately, hurricane seasons rarely follow formulas to the letter. Even in seasons that "ought" to be one way or another, a number of other variables, or an unexpected shift in one of the main variables, say, an unexpected El Nino, can absolutely torque a seasonal forecaster's best efforts.

My best guess for this season now stands at 17 Storms, 10 Hurricanes, 4 Majors, and I expect that the range this year is really, to be candid, more or less 10-22 Names, 7-12 Hurricanes and 2-6 Majors.

Needless to say, I view 2013 as a lower-confidence year for the seasonal forecasters, despite that fact that so many are in phenomenally good agreement right now.

Let's take a look at the seasonal forecasts that have been released so far (and the only ones I think are really worth "counting" if one is going to try to compare expert seasonal forecasts against climatology, because by the time Aug/Sept rolls around, most folks really don't need a tropical weather 'expert' to tell them which way the season's winds are blowing).



Sample of Professional Seasonal Forecasts Released Prior to June 2013 for Upcoming Atlantic Season

   Agency                                                                                                      Tot. Storms                        Tot.Hurricanes             Majors
Colorado State 18 9 4
WSI (TWC) 16 9 5
TSR 15.3 7.5 3.4
UKMET 14 9 N/A
Accuweather 16 8 4
Cuban INSMET 17 9 N/A
Weatherbell 16 12 5
NOAA 16.5 9 4.5

HTML Tables



So yes, it is plainly obvious from above that the bulk of the professional seasonal forecasters in 2013 are in a range of about 16 Names, 9 Hurricanes & 4 Majors. Another very, very active year, if verified.

But before even commenting on strikes vs. formation, how about a look at how pre-June seasonal forecasts actually hold up against reality, and just so nobody can accuse me of cherry-picking, I am simply going to use the past three seasons from what are generally regarded by many as three of the very top seasonal forecasting agencies.

      Year                      Agency                               Forecast (N/H/M)                                   Actual (N/H/M)                                 Miss
2012 NOAA 12/6/2 19/10/2 -11
2012 CSU 10/4/2 19/10/2 -15
2012 TSR 13/6/3 19/10/2 -11
2011 NOAA 15/8/4.5 19/7/4 -5.5
2011 CSU 16/9/5 19/7/4 -6
2011 TSR 13/7.5/3.5 19/7/4 -7
2010 NOAA 18.5/11/5 19/12/5 -1.5
2010 CSU 15/8/4 19/12/5 -9
2010 TSR 16/8/4 19/12/5 -8

HTML Tables



If the past three years are any indication (and they are), three different agencies covering three different seasons, thus totalling nine seasonal forecasts, only provided one out of the nine that was basically accurate (NOAA 2010). Two out of the nine were in the ballpark (NOAA 2011 & CSU 2011), leaving six out of nine, fully two-thirds, as varying degrees of bust.

In the end, it doesn't really matter to any individual in any given year how many total named storms/hurricanes/majors there are. What matters most in any given year is where they go, and maybe to a lesser degree, when they go there.

I've added a best-guess strike map for this year to my own seasonal best guesses, and it is available for view by clicking on the attachments tab up at the top. For what it's worth, I believe 2013 will have an above average to much above average threat of U.S. landfalls. This is due in part to the overall numbers of tropical cyclones produced, and the most probable steering currents throughout the season.


SchexStorm
(Registered User)
Mon May 27 2013 07:04 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

I will guess 16/7/4

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue May 28 2013 01:53 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

As an afterthought, I wanted to mention that I don't believe the odds of a below-normal season to be very good - I'm of the opinion that we will most likely see an average to hyperactive year in 2013, biased to be at least above average, with a breakdown something like this: In bottom 5 seasons: 0%, well below avg: 2%, below avg: 8%, about avg 20%, above avg 20%, well above avg: 25%, in top 5 seasons: 25%.

Basically, baring a surprisingly fast developing El Nino, excessive SAL, or other such unforeseen event, I would simply want to bet that 2013 continues the general trend seen since 1995 consistent with the warm AMO phase, which if anything, has only become more pronounced (Image below).



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue May 28 2013 07:52 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Mine is 15/7/2

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue May 28 2013 11:34 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013

18/11/5

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Tue May 28 2013 12:12 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

20/12/6

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue May 28 2013 10:30 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Going to be big year i think... 2005 like numbers... and an early Cape season i believe... I don't see Florida missing out on a Hurricane this year.... i know... sounds bad. But the overall pattern IMO looks very, very active.
27 Systems
24 Named Storms
19 Hurricanes
9 Major Hurricanes

Let's hope for a quite one!


eulogia
(Weather Watcher)
Wed May 29 2013 07:19 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

I'll throw in a guess -

22 Named Storms

12 Hurricanes

5 Major Hurricanes


DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu May 30 2013 05:18 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Been listening to the Mets. Even my daughter who says this is going to be a crazy year. (says floridians just know the weather...lol) So we talked it over and here is our shot into the dark...

19 Named
9 Hurricanes
6 Major (ouch)

wish cast..they all become fish spinners.


IMTechspec
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu May 30 2013 07:10 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Excellent information from cieldumort. If we believe in following the trends, which I will this year, then this is fairly easy with the recent data. There have been a few more dramatic year to year swings in the last dozen years or so, but I do not see any reason for the current trends to change significantly.

I am also going with 18 / 11 / 5 .


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu May 30 2013 10:04 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Glad to see everyone back in the saddle! it has been one of the weirdest winters I can remember in 40 years of watching the weather in Florida. I guess it would not be odd to have an unusual storm season. I just hope Florida's run of luck continues. Going for 3 decent predictions in a row....
I think I am going to split the middle of a couple and go with:
18 named
9 hurricanes
4 strong storms
This is one year I hope we overestimate!


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Fri May 31 2013 01:04 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

In just under the bell, it's been a crazy year on this end, I just started school at Georgia Tech where I'm aiming to get both a second undergraduate degree and an M.S. in the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences college. I still haven't decided if I want to focus on Meteorology or Climatology, Heck, maybe both?

Anyway onto my prediction
19 Depressions
18 Tropical Storms
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Fri May 31 2013 01:42 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Go for it! There is many a day I wish I had gone into meteorology instead of being put off by the physics and math requirements! I had the chance and passed it by!

Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Fri May 31 2013 05:31 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

Last minute guess- 19/10/3

vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Fri May 31 2013 05:58 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

I'll go with 17/8/4

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri May 31 2013 08:34 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

We ended up with 31 participants this year - the highest number since 2008 - so the interest in this is still there and thanks to all who put their numbers into the pot. After stirring the pot, the average predictions were 17/9/4, i.e., expectations for a very busy season once again. We'll check the actual totals at the end of the season and see how well we did.
Cheers.
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM
Outlook for 2013 - Final Results

Well not exactly one of out better years for forecasting seasonal totals - matter of fact, it was our poorest performance but we were certainly not alone in our demise. The average seasonal forecast by CFHC Users was 17/9/4 and the actual result was 13/2/0 for a total error of -15.
TSR 15/8/3 = -11 and CSU 18/9/4 = -16

2013 was a slightly above average season for total named storms but way below average for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes - and this was not an El Nino year. Using our normal scoring scheme, this is how well we did (or perhaps it shows how well we didn't ):

0 to -2 Outstanding - 0 forecasts
-3 to -4 Excellent - 0 forecasts
-5 to -6 Good - 0 forecasts
-7 to -8 Fair - 1 forecast
-9 to -15+ Hmmm - all the rest (30 forecasts)

The lower level of activity compared to the past three years and the minimal number of hurricanes combined to wipe out every forecast. The best score this year was B.C.Francis with -8. Joeyfl, MikeC and I all had -9 and all of those scores would normally be considered as a busted forecast. If I only scored the number of named storms, I was lucky enough to join CarolinaGurl and Joeyfl and hit the exact total of 13. B.C.Francis and gsand were close with 14. The forecast extremes ranged from 10/7/2 (-10) to 24/19/9 (-37).

Thanks to all of you who joined in the fun of our annual forecast activity - we'll try to do a little better next year.
Cheers,
ED



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