Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Jul 22 2013 03:00 PM |
Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Dorian
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At 22/18Z, Invest 98L was slowly consolidating its increasing convection near 12.2N 18.9W, or southeast of the Cape Verde Islands just off the west coast of Africa. Pressure was 1009MB, SST is 28.5C, sustained winds were at 25 knots and movement was to the west at 12 knots. The system is currently moving through an area of light windshear so some additional development is possible in the next couple of days. Future movement should be to the west and west northwest with the system beginning to encounter an increase in westerly upper windshear by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
ED
(Title updated to reflect current cyclone status.)
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 22 2013 04:44 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 98L in Far Eastern Atlantic
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well... a bit of an oddity that after the GFS was so definitive about something forming it backed off.... and now the NHC seems more excited than models would appear.
Watching the one by Africa closely. Has a good signature, it has a long, long way to go.
Will be lucky if it survives. But an orange circle so soon shows some level of confidence.
The lead wave before it did much to give this new wave a fighting chance as it may have taken a bite out of the SAL. Either way SAL seems less in charge than it was last week.
Massive high... lower than desired water temperatures. Looking good now, may be a temporary thing.
Watching, looking for good discussion here... without hype.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Jul 24 2013 12:06 AM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 98L in Far Eastern Atlantic
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At 24/00Z Invest 98L was located at 13.3N 25.6W and its chances for additional development into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday are now at 70%. Pressure is now 1008MB and winds are increasing. If convection increases, its possible that NHC might take this system directly to Tropical Storm status, however, that status could be short lived. SSTs are a couple of degrees cooler along the projected path to the west northwest for the next day or two - and westerly windshear will be on the increase late Wednesday into Thursday. Movement is to the west northwest at 13 knots.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jul 25 2013 01:25 AM |
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Dorian
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Tropical Storm Dorian maintaining status quo as a 45kt TS near 15N 33W. Movement expected to continue at 15-18kts to the west northwest and the track could take on a more westerly component in a few days. SSTs have warmed somewhat along the projected path and the large area of dry air to the west of the cyclone is slowly shrinking. With the dry airmass moving westward at the same rate of speed as Dorian, this factor may become a non-influence on the future strength of the system.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Aug 03 2013 01:24 AM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Ex-Dorian East of Melbourne
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At 03/06Z, Invest 91L (Dorian Remnant Low) was located about 60 miles east of Melbourne - currently with little movement. Satellite derived winds are close to tropical storm force to the east and southeast of the low center. Probability of redevelopment has increased to 60% and just a small additional increase in convective development could result in a tropical cyclone reclassification later this morning. NHC anticipates a slow movement to the north, although the operative word might indeed be 'slow' since some of the models only move the center about 30 miles to the north or northnorthwest in the next 24 hours.
The storm center has been just about stationary for the past 12 hours while intensifying over the Gulf Stream.
ED