Ed Dunham
|
|
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
|
|
Wed Aug 14 2013 02:31 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Area of Interest - Invest 92L - Western Caribbean Sea
|
|
At 14/13Z, Invest 92L was located about 300 miles east of Belize City near 17.4N 83.5W with winds of 25 knots and a central pressure of 1009MB. Movement is to the west northwest at 8 knots. SSTs in the western Caribbean Sea are at 30C. The southerly to southwesterly shear zone located to the northwest of the system is expected to weaken and retrograde westward as a weakness develops in the western extention of the Atlantic ridge that currently extends into the GOM.
Conditions seem favorable for additional development and intensification with movement becoming more northwesterly toward the northeast Yucatan peninsula.
ED
|
|
berrywr
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Wed Aug 14 2013 09:36 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 92L - Western Caribbean Sea
|
|
Looks pretty good on satellite but ASCAT/OSCAT clearly indicate the system is an open wave.
|
|
berrywr
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Wed Aug 14 2013 10:05 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 92L - Western Caribbean Sea
|
|
This is my Facebook discussion in reference to the Model Diagnostic Discussion and Extended Forecast Discussion: Please note the last paragraph in regards to 92L - The common sense version of this bulletin is the models in the past 24 hours are now 50-50; the GFS wants to bring 92L up to Lousiana and the other half want to steer the system into the Western Gulf of Mexico; yesterday at this time the GFS was the outlier and the ECMWF (an extremely reliable global model) and the UKMET...that's the Brits and their global model had a date along the Tex/Mex coast. The GFS' 300mb upper air chart in four days places an upper level trough along the TX/LA coast...a retrogression (backwards) moving upper trough that is situated along the eastern half of the nation right now. If that scenario pans out, the GFS will verify, but what is unclear is there is a front nearby and how 92L will likely interact with the upper level trough and surface front. It doesn't appear at this time it will be a strong system but if there is one thing the SE USA doesn't need right now and that's more rain.
|
|
Ed Dunham
|
|
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
|
|
Thu Aug 15 2013 06:16 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 92L - Western Caribbean Sea
|
|
At this early hour of the morning, Invest 92L is looking very weak and very disorganized - if this weakening trend continues, the Invest may get dropped. Really not much out there at the moment to define a system of interest.
ED
|