Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Jan 01 2015 12:17 AM
Outlook for 2015

SST trends, and even SST climatology, suggest about a 65% probability of at least a firm El Nino event during the heart of the Atlantic 2015 hurricane season. At this early stage, analog years are difficult to determine - perhaps something similar to the 1987 season (7/3/1). Sometimes a firm El Nino year (1953) can still produce an active Atlantic tropical cyclone season but those anomalies are rare. My current thoughts are to lean toward a season with lower than normal activity with an initial forecast of 8/5/1. With below normal SSTs forecast for the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea for the Spring and early Summer, an early start to the 2015 Atlantic season is not very likely. As the season approaches, feel free to add your own numbers in our annual attempt to quantify the numbers for the upcoming season. Rational for your forecast is not required and you can adjust your numbers as often as you wish until this thread closes on June 1st. At the end of the 2015 season we'll revisit our numbers and see how well we did (or didn't).
Cheers,
ED


JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jan 01 2015 09:00 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

I've had this forecast planned out for a couple of years, focusing on the continuation of an overactive season in a year ending with a 5 that's been the trend lately. I'll either really be onto something or the worst projection ever on this site.


38/19/9


Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jan 02 2015 12:11 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

My god! 38/19/9? New year's egg nog a bit heavy or profit? I think we're in a slower and slower period, so 8/2/1 but I've got a ½ year to amend.

I'm mostly curious to see us 20 Greek letters deep in the naming system. Happy 2015!

Quote:

I've had this forecast planned out for a couple of years, focusing on the continuation of an overactive season in a year ending with a 5 that's been the trend lately. I'll either really be onto something or the worst projection ever on this site.


38/19/9




Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Jan 02 2015 02:09 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

The primary reason that we do this is to see who did the best job of guesstimating the seasonal activity in the Atlantic basin. Another reason is to see if we, as a group, can show any improvement in our average outlook for the season, i.e. have we learned anything (or not) over time - so with that second goal in mind, to avoid an unfair bias against the other participants, your numbers will not be used when the average of all inputs is finalized. However, your numbers will certainly be used in the individual scoring so your inputs will be evaluated with all of the other inputs when the season comes to an end. Note that nothing meteorologically suggests an all-time record number of storms for 2015 in the Atlantic basin.
ED


JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jan 03 2015 11:32 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

Well with a team average in mind I'll go ahead and drop the outlandish forecast and keep that one in my private log files for the end of the year and come up with something a little more reasoned.

After thinking on it a little while and looking over the past couple of years, I think the overall number of storms will stay low but the intensity of the storms may rise a little bit, with the exception of storms that briefly form, either close to land or in a briefly favorable environment before falling apart. Number of Major Hurricanes I'm stuck at between two and three but I'll go ahead and round up to three.

7/5/3.


B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jan 26 2015 03:46 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

6-2-1

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Feb 12 2015 09:04 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

There have been several years in a row marked by systems that never really got their act together, with only a few exceptions. I'm going to go all 1995 on this year though, 19/11/5

The secondary calll for this year for "bonus points"" is if Florida sees a true landfalling hurricane this year. If not we get an even 10 years without one. (on 10/24) We may have an active year, but at this point I'll lean toward hitting the 10 year record. (which probably means watch out Florida)

Both predictions are 100% unscientific.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Feb 19 2015 02:09 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

It is difficult to find a realistic analog year for the 2015 season. Right now, 1957 is the only season that remotely matches what 2015 could be like. Given the unique SST pattern (both current and forecast), the seasonal forecasts from the various agencies are probably going to have quite a range from very quiet to very busy. Its quite possible that Florida will indeed hit the 10 year record of no landfalling hurricanes.
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue Mar 10 2015 01:37 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

Since 1950 there have only been three years that had an El Nino event last for the entire year: 1953, 1969 and 1987. With an El Nino event about to verify (five straight months) there is a good possibility that 2015 could become the fourth year that this has happened since 1950. 1957 is no longer a viable analog year, but two of the active El Nino years, 1953 and 1969, are looking like possible analog years for this upcoming season. The other two are 1977 and 1991. With the exception of 1953 and 1969, no other year with a moderate El Nino has produced above normal tropical cyclone activity, however, 1958 did have an average number of storms (10/7/5), so about 25% of the time an El Nino season can still produce an active season in the Atlantic basin. The latest SST forecasts (issued 3/2/15) suggest that above normal SSTs will exist in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea for the entire 2015 Atlantic tropical cyclone season - so an early season storm is certainly possible this year - and that would also be true for a late season storm or two.

Current Analog Years
1977 6//5/1
1969 18/12/5
1991 8/4/2
1953 13/6/4

Average of the Analog Years is 11/7/3.

With a nudge from the 'potential' for a slightly busier season, I'll bump up my forecast to 9/6/2.

Remember, if you have already posted your forecast you can change it, if you wish, right up until the thread closes on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Mar 14 2015 10:20 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

11/6/2

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Apr 09 2015 03:51 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

I will average the two (CSU/TSR) and post 9/4/2

I seem to recall an increase in precipitation along California coast In previous strong El-Nino years. For their sake lets hope so anyway...


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Apr 15 2015 12:13 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

1977 is starting to look like a strong analog year - so I'm going to drop my numbers back to my original forecast of 8/5/1.
ED


Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Wed May 06 2015 08:50 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

I can't edit my January post, but 8/2/1 seems low, especially since we're about to pop one in early may - amending to 10-4-2

stormtiger
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu May 07 2015 11:15 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

I believe things will continue to be slow on the high end; however, the trend to name more of the weaker disturbances TSs will continue.

I'm going with 11/3/2 but unfortunately I believe on of the two will bring some grief early on in the season to the Corpus/Galveston area.

Out side of the one big storm, I think we'll see three or four TS hit the continental US mostly on the GOM side of Florida.
I think the Caribbean will be relatively quiet. The Atlantic Coast will see below normal activity. There will be one major hurricane that will be a fish spinner.

Florida will continue their streak of good fortune.


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Thu May 07 2015 11:47 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

It's expected to be an even duller season than 2014; cooler AO SSTs and El Nino expected this summer and autumn; it could be the dullest in a good long time.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon May 11 2015 01:05 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

The latest NOAA SST Outlook (issued today) anticipates a strong El Nino of 1.5 to 2C by August that lasts for the remainder of 2015 (at least). This adds 1987 to the analog years - perhaps the best analog year for 2015. The 1987 totals were 7/3/1. 1987 had a tropical depression in May, but the first named storm did not develop until August. Its not uncommon for seasons which have an early season (May) storm to go quiet for a couple of months before the next storm shows up.

So far, inputs on the site for this thread have been on the slow side - which is also common when a quiet season is anticipated by meteorological agencies. You still have until the end of the month to post your own numbers for the season.
ED


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Mon May 11 2015 03:12 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

After my disastrous tilt against the trend last season, I think I am going to tow the line a bit more for this one. El Nino all year is the biggest influence on my prediction of 8/4/2. Nice reverse number progression as well. I am just praying those of us in Florida escape for another year and set a new record!!

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Fri May 22 2015 11:28 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

After reading this excellent fairly current Wiki I am going with
8/2/1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Atlantic_hurricane_season


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun May 24 2015 09:09 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

A strong El Nino is now expected this Summer and it should last for the rest of 2015 (and its quite likely that it will extend well into 2016). I've made a final tweak to my numbers: 8/4/1.

1991 (8/4/2) looks like another excellent analog year for 2015. If a moderate to strong El Nino persists through the upcoming winter, 1992 and 1983 are likely analog years for 2016.

The season begins soon - so you still have one week remaining to add your own seasonal totals to this thread before it closes on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED


GlenJohnson
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon May 25 2015 03:52 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

Two thoughts here. One, it may be a slow season, but the water around Florida is so warm if one hits, it could boost it into a real killer. Two, I've been wrong so many times, I'm going with 11/6/3 and that's based on my birthday. Nuff said.

vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Mon May 25 2015 09:21 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

10/5/3

beachcrafts
(Registered User)
Tue May 26 2015 03:52 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

8/3/2 no particular reason.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed May 27 2015 02:18 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

10, 4, 1

Not finding any one analog year very compelling. See some reasons to give more consideration to both 1982 (6, 2, 1) & 1991 (8, 4, 2) than I had earlier.

10/4/1 final, but a potential total bust especially so if el nino becomes either strong, or trends to neutral.

From a western Gulf of Mexico perspective, despite all the "low" forecasts agencies are putting out there, the amount of moisture now in the southern plains concerns me. For one, it is now so saturated from earth to atmosphere - and expected to keep a wet bias for many months to come - that any landfalling tropical cyclones along the Gulf could maintain inland longer than usual. This ties in to a related concern - the propensity of the current and forecast pattern to draw up moisture, and so, potentially future disturbances, from the western Atlantic, and/or even the eastern Pacific.. maybe even crossovers.




MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Thu May 28 2015 06:29 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

8/5/2

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Thu May 28 2015 08:08 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

8/2/1

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat May 30 2015 05:54 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

Last season the actual numbers were 8/6/2 and the best analog year was 1976 (9/6/2). This year 1977 is a strong candidate for the likely analog year - the 1977 totals were 6/5/1. I'm making a minor adjustment of my numbers to 8/3/1.

Still time to add your numbers until the thread closes tomorrow (5/31) at midnight.
ED


GlenJohnson
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat May 30 2015 08:49 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

Still going with 11/6/3, even more so now that I see the news story that the hurricane insurance rate for Florida is going down. Means we're in for trouble for sure. Been lucky to long.

gsand
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun May 31 2015 07:22 PM
Re: Outlook for 2015

9/4/2. I like what Ed said about the analog but bumping a bit for no particular reason.

Stay safe everyone!


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Jun 01 2015 12:19 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

This year we had 17 participants which is normal for a season that is expected to be quiet. The range was from 6/2/1 to 19/11/5 and the rounded average was 9/4/2.

CSU forecast: 7/3/1
TSR forecast: 11/4/1
NOAA forecast: 9/5/1 (rounded)

Sometimes even your local weather can give you a hint as to what the upcoming season could be like, because your local weather is usually typical of a particular weather pattern that may influence some other meteorological attribute such as a higher or lower season of tropical activity. This year in east central Florida we have had a wet and uncommonly warm Spring. In April I had a new monthly rainfall record of 5.46". My previous April record of 4.41" was in 1997 (6/3/1). In April I also had 6 days with thunder which tied the record high for the month with 1994 (7/3/0), 2013 (13/2/0) and 2014 (8/6/2). Not exactly a scientific method, but the correlation is interesting.

Thanks to all who participated - at the end of the season we'll revisit the forecasts and see how well we did.
Cheers,
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Nov 30 2015 11:09 PM
Outlook for 2015 - The Final Results

The 2015 season has ended and most of the CFHC site users did an outstanding job this year with their forecasts for the season. The final numbers for 2015 were 11/4/2 - a normal season of named storms although slightly low on the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. The average forecast by all of the site users that participated was 9/4/2 for a skill score of -2 and an 'outstanding' rating - which ties 2015 with 2014 for the highest rating ever achieved in our annual exercise. Doombot! and stormtiger had it very close - both with a score of -1, while M.A., doug, cieldumort and gsand all had a score of -2. The range in scores was from -1 to -18. Lamar-Plant City, GlenJohnson and vpbob21 all had scores of -3 while beachcrafts and MichaelA had scores of -4 - all of these for an 'excellent' rating. I was in the 'good' category with a score of -5 along with JoshuaK, craigm and dolphinatic with scores of -6. On the professional side, CSU had a score of -6, NOAA came in at -4 and TSR did a great job at -1. Note that there really wasn't a good analog year that matched this season.

Right now 2016 looks like it will be a little more active, however, probably not as much of an uptick in activity as you might be thinking. I'll post some thoughts on that in a Met Blog and in a new Storm Forum Outlook thread for 2016 in early January. But for now, congratulations on a forecasting job well done for 2015 - its going to be tough to beat these results in 2016 but we'll give it a try.
Cheers,
ED



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center