Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Jan 01 2016 02:07 AM
Outlook for 2016

NCEP has revised their forecast and now expects that it will be mid Summer of 2016, rather than Spring, before the current strong El Nino moderates to ENSO neutral conditions in the Pacific 3.4 Region. If the forecast pans out, it would be normal to anticipate that early season (or pre-season) activity would be unlikely, however, their forecast also suggests above average SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea from January through June - so I wouldn't close the books on any early season activity just yet. At the moment the best analog years seem to be:

1998 - 14/10/3
1988 - 11/5/3
1966 - 11/7/3
2003 - 16/7/3

Six month SST forecasts are not exactly precision forecasts, but I would still anticipate ENSO Neutral by late July into August. With SSTs generally warmer in the basin, I'm going to start with an outlook for an above average level of activity with 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes with 3 of those hurricanes reaching 'major' status. We'll leave this thread open until the start of the Atlantic season on June 1st. You can post your own seasonal forecast numbers here and change them until the season starts. At the end of the 2016 season we'll take a look back and see how well we've done.
ED


IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Jan 10 2016 10:54 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

I concur with a tad smaller total # with a tad greater # on the majors: 13 named with 6 becoming hurricanes and 4 achieving major hurricane status. Given the forecast for El Nino at the start of the season, the early activity should be weaker storms with the hurricanes following the classic bell curve September 10th activity peak. If abnormally high SST's linger late in the season like in 2015, 2 or 3 of the majors could come later in the season (like Cat 4 Joaquin) between mid-September to mid-October.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Feb 02 2016 03:23 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

13/7/3 from average of the analogs....

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Apr 07 2016 09:12 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

14/8/3

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Apr 14 2016 11:49 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

I'll be a little more aggressive this year with neutral ENSO forecast mid summer
16/9/4
Couple of good reads---

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa...-question-marks


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Apr 30 2016 09:53 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

15 / 11 /5

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed May 04 2016 01:03 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

Latest NCEP SST ENSO forecast suggests that the upcoming season might be more like 1983 and less like 1998. I'm going to split the difference and lower my expectations to 10/6/2 or a slightly below normal season.

TSR April Outlook: 12/6/2
CSU April Outlook: 13/6/2

ADDED: Best analog years so far seem to be 1992 (7/4/1) and 1970 (10/5/2).
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue May 10 2016 10:09 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

Three weeks remaining until the start of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. When the season begins on June 1st, this thread will close. Not all that much interest in the seasonal inputs this year - perhaps because it has been over 10 years since a hurricane has hit Florida. Seasons that followed a strong El Nino have either had minimal activity (1983) or high activity (1998) - which adds a degree of difficulty to the 2016 seasonal outlook, however, give it your best guess and we'll see how we did at the end of the season.
ED


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Tue May 10 2016 11:42 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

13/9/4

gsand
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat May 14 2016 10:24 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

12/7/3
Stay safe everyone!


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed May 18 2016 11:23 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

14/6/2

JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Thu May 26 2016 10:20 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

13/7/4.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu May 26 2016 02:00 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

Looks like my first time didn't post. I am going with 12/6/2 this season.....still praying Florida's string of good luck holds. SO glad the doomsayers back in 2005 were wrong about storm trends!

vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Thu May 26 2016 10:19 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

13/6/3

stormtiger
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri May 27 2016 10:14 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

I am looking for a slightly above normal season.

15/8/3


Kraig
(Weather Watcher)
Sat May 28 2016 01:51 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

I'm going with 15/9/4.

IMTechspec
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat May 28 2016 02:26 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

Another season ahead with multiple uncertain factors, at this point.

My best guess is 12 / 7 / 3 .


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun May 29 2016 08:13 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

With consideration for two named storms before the official start of the season, I'm going to nudge my numbers up to 11/6/2 - a normal season. There are still a few more days for you to post your guesstimate for the season before we close out this thread on June 1st when the season officially gets underway.
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue May 31 2016 12:34 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

(From jtrmr)
jtrnr1951
Registered User
Reged: May 30 2016
Posts: 1
My random guess
#96186 - Mon May 30 2016 07:28 PM

15,10, 5........and I hope I'm wrong.

(transferred from another thread)
ED


EMS
(Weather Watcher)
Tue May 31 2016 10:34 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

14/8/3

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue May 31 2016 11:41 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

My thinking has been going back and forth some, but I am comfortable enough with 17/9/3 (including Alex and Bonnie, which we have already had). This is on the high to very high end of most mainstream forecasts, and is admittedly not with great confidence.

Some analog years that stand out more to me than others include: 58, 66, 73, 88, 92, 98, 03 and 2010.

Whether or not the season ends up as 'active' as 17/9/3, I also expect a much much greater-than-average risk of systems affecting the southern through eastern United States - as well as much higher-than-average odds that any systems which do push inland, to be able to maintain further inland.

For Hawaii, the West & Southwest: Not to the same extent as in 2015, I also put Hawaii, the West and Southwest US at a higher-than-average risk of impacts from tropical cyclones (more likely in the form of flash flooding, waves, etc., than any sort of direct hit- but still possible)..

For the North Atlantic: 17/9/3 final. With above average threats, overall.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue May 31 2016 11:50 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

Actually, TSR increased their forecast to 17/9/4 a few days ago and I'll post more on that in a few minutes so you are in good company (I guess) It was enough for me to nudge my totals to 12/6/2.
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Jun 01 2016 12:01 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

A total of 18 site members (one more than last year) participated in the 2016 version of our annual exercise to guess the level of activity in the Atlantic Basin in terms of Total Number of Named Storms / Number of Hurricanes / and the number of those hurricanes that reach Major Hurricane status (Cat III or stronger). The guesstimates ranged from a low of 12 named storms (myself and three others) to 17 named storms by cieldumort - and that is probably the smallest range that we have ever had. It means that all of us expect an above average number of named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic this year - and we have already had Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie. The average of all inputs was 14 / 8 / 3. The forecasted number of hurricanes ranged from 6 to 11 and the number of major hurricanes was 2 to 5.

From the pros:
On 4/14, CSU: 13/6/2 with an ACE of 93
On 4/15, TSR: 12/6/2, however, on 5/27 TSR revised their forecast to 17/9/4 - a rather significant change and they based this increase primarily on the NAO trending negative. They increased their ACE from 80 to 130.
On 5/27, NOAA: 13/6/3 (averages of their range of numbers)

This thread is now closed, however, at the end of the season we'll check back with the actual season totals and see if we were in the ballpark. Thanks to all of you that participated!
Cheers,
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Nov 26 2016 09:35 PM
Outlook for 2016 - Final Tally

With the likelihood that the 2016 season has ended its time to see how well we did - and on average it was the best forecast that the site members have ever had! The final total for 2016 was 15/7/3 and your average forecast was 14/8/3 which is outstanding! stormtiger won the numbers game with a supurb forecast of 15/8/3. EMS at 14/8/3, doug at 13/7/3 and Mike C at 14/8/3 all had scores of -2 and tied for second place - all excellent forecasts. gsand, M.A., JoshuaK, vpbob21, Kraig and IMTechspec all had great scores of -3. NOAA came in at -3, CSU at -4 and TSR and I both were at -5. In about a month I'll post my initial forecast for the 2017 season. Thanks once again for all of you who participated this season.
Cheers,
ED



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