Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Jan 01 2017 12:34 AM
Outlook for 2017

About a month ago it was difficult to identify a suitable analog year for the 2017 tropical Atlantic activity and it still is - no real firm indicators one way or another, however 1984 (13/5/1) is starting to emerge as a possible analog year. After starting with a weak La Nina, ENSO Neutral conditions are forecast to exist through most of 2017 in the tropical east Pacific. I'll start with 13/5/1 for 2017 and adust the numbers as necessary when the start of the season gets closer. Those numbers would suggest that 2017 would be an above normal season in the Atlantic basin - but its early. The current ridging pattern in the subtropical Atlantic is keeping SSTs on the warm side this winter (so far). 1984 did feature some late season storms and if the pattern holds, 2017 might do the same.

Once again we will keep this thread open until the season starts on June 1st and you can input your own guesstimates on the 2017 numbers until then - and revise them as often as you wish. As a group, CFHC did a fantastic job last year on the seasonal totals - best ever.
Cheers,
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Jan 06 2017 05:51 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

Another analog year that is emerging is 1996 (13/9/6) so I'll adjust my outlook to 13/7/3.
ED


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Mar 05 2017 09:35 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

Not making prediction yet. But I am intrigued by the weather on the west coast this year and a similarity with the pattern there in 1968-69. I know 1969 brought 13 storms and Camielle. It seems that the tropical Atlantic this year would be supporting higher than normal sea temps and a more robust tropical high pressure ridge which would lead to a more vigorous season. Waiting with interest for the May predictions by the usual entities.

SouthGAwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Mar 16 2017 01:51 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

12/6/3

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Mar 21 2017 10:55 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

11/7/4

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Mar 24 2017 12:31 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

Not sure what this will add but here is the early outlook from Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell.
Is the Current US Climate Cycle Thwarting Major Hurricane Hits


gsand
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Apr 01 2017 01:02 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

12/5/2

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Apr 11 2017 11:38 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

TSR on 4/5/17: 11/4/2 with two US land falling TS. ACE is at 67...next update is 5/26 with final seasonal forecast

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Apr 20 2017 02:56 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

13/6/3

(Arlene may happen today)


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Apr 21 2017 07:37 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

16/7/4

DanMcEntire
(Registered User)
Thu Apr 27 2017 12:56 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

Quote:

Not sure what this will add but here is the early outlook from Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell.
Is the Current US Climate Cycle Thwarting Major Hurricane Hits




This is a great resource!


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Apr 30 2017 11:40 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

18/9/5

EMS
(Weather Watcher)
Wed May 03 2017 12:23 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

13/3/1

Wingwiper
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon May 08 2017 10:08 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

13/7/3

JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Thu May 11 2017 09:31 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

17/9/4

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu May 11 2017 01:44 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

amending to 11/5/2

vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Thu May 11 2017 11:33 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

15/6/3

GlenJohnson
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri May 12 2017 05:54 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

15/4/3 Wanted to go low, but it's been a strange year. Doesn't mean they'll be bad, may all miss us again, hit New York. We'll see.

GlenJohnson
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat May 27 2017 07:35 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

New forecast from NOAA
Named Storms 11-17
Hurricanes 5-9
Major Hurricanes 2-4

Looks like everything but Hurricanes I was right in the ballpark with them. Lets see what happens. I bet I'm way low on that one.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sat May 27 2017 01:37 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

13/7/1

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun May 28 2017 09:06 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

I am pretty close to NOAA's numbers.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Tue May 30 2017 12:09 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

Going to go with 16 - 7 - 3 this year. No particular reason. I went low side last year and was wrong...probably will switch on me this year. Let's hope WeatherBells predictions of LOT of threats to the US doesn't verify!

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue May 30 2017 09:21 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

TSR's 5/26 forecast increased to 14/6/3 and ACE now up to 93.There seems to be consensus that an El Nino will be delayed which explains the increase... since this is for fun I will keep my updated guess 11/5/2

Kraig
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed May 31 2017 06:23 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

I'm going to go a little lower, with 10/6/2.....

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed May 31 2017 07:12 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

Ed Dunham sadly passed away on May 14th, the outlook will continue on, but he will be greatly missed.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed May 31 2017 07:58 PM
Re: Outlook for 2017

My preferred analog years: 1951, 1996 and 2001 assuming no El Niño ... but with some deference to 1965 and/or 1972 should an El Niño develop this year, and develop prior to September.

Speaking just of the continental U.S., an above-average landfall risk along all of the Gulf states, the southeast, and all the way up the eastern seaboard to Canada. (An unusually larger and higher than average landfall risk area).

Much above-average chance of early season development/s, especially close to Mexico, Central America, and the U.S.

My 2017 total numbers forecast for the Atlantic basin: 14 Names, 7 Hurricanes, 3 Majors


~ In memory of Ed. Always inspiring, always insightful, always sincere. Rest in peace. ~


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Jun 01 2017 06:08 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

16/9/4

And very sad news indeed about Ed Dunham.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Jun 01 2017 08:51 AM
Re: Outlook for 2017

i'll let the last one slide, but the listing is closed for the season. Now to see what happens...


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