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Mon Aug 05 2002 10:42 PM

TD 3# Forms

As Bertha fizzles out over land, TD #3 starts to spin up off the South Carolina Coast. All models suggest TD #3 will Strengthen and move away from the coast. We will be watching this one.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow Even more on the links page.

- [jc]

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 05 2002 11:04 PM

Re: TD 3# Forms

Oh,ho,hum! TD#3 . Just another fish spinner. NEXT!!!

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 05 2002 11:36 PM

Re: TD 3# Forms

Here's one for you. I noticed that the official track for the remnants of Bertha is to take it west than more wsw and be just north of Galveston later in the week. Let me throw something out there. What happens if this does take place but the LLC that is left somehow skirts a little further south and gets back out over the water just south of Galveston? I know you all are laughing right now but nobody expected Allison last year to go up into NE Texas and then come right back down over us and back into the water,either. I'm just throwing this out for entertainment,but if it is predicted to get this close to the water again than why not throw the idea out there. I must say that I did get the information about the remnants being near Galveston later in the week off of ACCUWEATHER.COM. Any thoughts on this?

greg-kfdmtv

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 06 2002 12:01 AM

Re: TD 3# Forms

Shawn....

The remains of Bertha are centered just north of Baton Rouge and appear to be moving slightly south of due west at this time.

The ridge to the northwest and north of the low should force the remains to move more southwesterly with time as the ridge builds more to the southwest.

I expect the remains of Bertha to be in the Houston-Beaumont area by Wednesday morning.

There is an outside chance that the low could move just offshore from the upper Texas coast. However, I would not expect any increase in intensity but a motion as described could
certainly allow the low to stay alive producing heavy rains.

Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV Beaumont, Texas

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 12:15 AM

Greg

What happens,though, if the low can stay alive and get back into the water? I have seen these things happen before and when they do they seem to explode . I know that this is very far fetched but as we all have seen anything is possible when you are dealing with tropical systems......especially remains of one. I don't think it would have to be over water too long for something to get going. You know as well as I do how systems have gone crazy when they get right along the Texas coast. It's like the coastline feeds them more.

greg-kfdmtv

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 06 2002 12:21 AM

Bertha remains

Shawn...

I would only expect that the convection near the center would be kept alive with the threat from this system being heavy rains.

I believe it would have to move 50-100 miles offshore to redevelop significantly. That southern track appears quite unlikely to me.

Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV Beaumont, Texas

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Aug 06 2002 01:07 AM

Hey Greg...

Shawn,

Don't get yer hopes up on Bertha. She was a 'tease' if you know what I mean. Think about it. An eye came literally across this city and we got .03" of rainfall. Bah humbug. Maybe - JUST MAYBE - if the storms fire up again late tonight, we could be under a band. But with New Orleans' tropical luck, I'd expect the bands of training showers to fire off about 5 miles west of the city.

The remnants are definitely going to have to head WSW in order for you to see anything out of them. The center appears to be headng right for Alexandria at the moment (pop. 100k, 180 miles NW of New Orleans). But if you get what we got - and that was two nice days which were breezy and in the 80's, feel fortunate.

Steve

57497479

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 06 2002 01:18 AM

WHICH WAY DID THEY GO?

Well, almost 3 named storms down and still not much to write home about.I'm beginning to think that we may either go down the list of names farther than I thought (thanks to all the fish spinners) or we may have a fairly quite season. I know that it is still a little early in the season, but our weather pattern seems to be a little goofy. Maybe I'm just getting a little impatient.
T. Leap

Barry B

(Registered User)

Tue Aug 06 2002 01:37 AM

Re: Hey Greg...

Greg Its great to see you back on the site. Shawn You and I think alot alike. I am in Cameron Parish LA. Question, where is all the regular posters are they posting on another board?

StormHound

(Weather Guru)

Tue Aug 06 2002 02:30 AM

Re: Where are all the regular posters?

Waiting for a real storm to track...

I predict TD #3 will hit Shawn, I mean Galviston, as a Cat 5...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 02:51 AM

Re: TD 3# Forms

Why do they have TD 3 moving South at 6 mph, when the latest coordinates would have it moving SSW? It also looks less impressive than earlier. Could this slip the trough?

Keith

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 03:22 AM

Re: TD 3# Forms

By the way, has anyone read Joe B.'s post for Monday Evening? He sure likes to try and keep things interesting.

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 03:31 AM

Re: TD 3# Forms

Did anyone read the NHC TD#3 discussion? Boy it sure sounds intresting. If the system manages to slip south of 30N which it's not far from we may have a wondering storm with better outflow. Now I said earlier to today that it would make the turn northeast, but it's something to keep a close eye on until it does.

Larry

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 06 2002 04:13 AM

Re: TD 3# Forms

Shawn,

Trust Joe B. to throw a monkey wrench in the works

He has been pretty good at predicting these 2 systems; hope he is wrong now and it is just a fish spinner. Or, if it is a weak system, we wouldn't mind a little rain here in NC....
which would be the last thing I would expect.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 04:16 AM

TD #3 Remains a ??????

Agree Joe, thought the call to take it NE was permature, but odds do favor it. But more doubt as of 11 pm discussion. The fact that it has remained weak has helped it get pushed further SSW. If it gets much further south it can avoid the impact of the trough and get cut off leaving it drifting until it gets under the influence of the high over the midwest, which could shove it westward. A definite possibility. Conditions would gradually improve after the trough passage if it did miss it. AVN may be a bit too aggressive plowing that cold front all the way into FL...so the trough may split. Could become trouble for the east coast of FL and points west if this happens. Cheers Steve H.

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 04:23 AM

Re: TD #3 Remains a ??????

Agree Steve do think AVN is overdoing the frontal passage into FL. I think if TD#3 can get to 28N we may be in for an intresting ride...

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Aug 06 2002 04:59 AM

Hey!

What did Joe B have to say in his evening update? Seem's like his website has been down off and on for the better part of 2 days. I can't get it up now (hardy-har-har).

But you want to see something bizarre? Check out the last GFDL model which brings #3 just to the east coast of FL and then proceeds to launch four storms in succession from that part of the troff - all spinners. I've never, EVER (thanks Jericho) seen anything like that before.

Steve

Larry

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 06 2002 05:13 AM

Re: Hey!

Steve,

Joe B. said that the latest run of the european showed a south then SW course. I'll quote a short bit of his following remarks:
"The problem we have here is the trof coming in collapses the height field all AROUND the system, not in back of it. This means the stream flow, instead of being southwest and taking it out, may very well be light north since the ridge to the west is stronger than the ridge to the east."

He then restated his feelings that the pattern he sees would call for watching the SW Atlantic or eastern gulf even if this system did escape to the NE.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 07:02 AM

Re: TD 3# Forms

td 3 is moving s to ssw faster than computer models said. think trough will miss it. nhc said it will be in good enviroment for good outflow, just north of bahamas. looks good in 1 am. satellite pic.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 09:42 AM

Re: TD 3# Forms

It's starting to look more and more like the trough may not pick it up. It's also beginning to look like the Florida east coast had better keep a close eye on this one. Td#3 has a very good chance to really get it's act together and eventually find its way into the GOM. Let's take this even a bit further, does anyone want to comment what direction it may go if it does get into the GOM? T. Leap

57497479

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 06 2002 10:02 AM

Re: TD 3# Forms

5AM and the loop still looks impressive!!!! T.Leap

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Aug 06 2002 10:56 AM

Here's Bertha...

FINALLY a heavy feeder band moving in. I just woke up with some loud thunder and heavy rainfall. Looks like we'll get a couple of inches with this squall. Better late then never.

Steve

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 11:47 AM

Re: Here's Bertha...

Again, I caution everyone Not to depend on these models so much. My hunch was right on the remains of Bertha just stalling and eventually raining itself out. It never did take that west to southwest move or the continual northwest track that the models said it would. Now if a dummy like me can sit here and out perform these models sometime, then we need to start paying closer attention to other possibilities that the models are not picking up on. That brings me to TD#3. The models are still bullish on this trough picking it up and sending it out, but we all see what is going on here and it is leaning towards the models being wrong again. I'm not saying that I'm 100% sure that the models will be incorrect on this one because I know that the logical thing is to think that TD#3 will be picked up. However, models never what to go out on a limb on things, which means they would NEVER predict a trough MISSING a system. The models could be right still, but right now I'm leaning towards this thing making it into the gulf. I can't believe I'm actually ageeing with Joe B. HAHAHA!!!!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 12:38 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

K so is everyone ready for Bertha #2.

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 12:45 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

What do you mean?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 12:47 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

looks like its headed for the gulf again, shawn , now reason it wouldn't develop if it got there.

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 12:57 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

I don't think there is a circulation left anymore. It would take too much for it to get going again. Not only that, I think the storms will fade off once they get back into the water.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 01:03 PM

Pressure Falling

Hey Steve,

Have looked at the bouy 120 NM East of Cape Canaveral?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41010
The water is certainly warm enough to sustain Tropical growth.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 01:05 PM

Link to Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico Recent Marine Data

For those of you who don't have this link.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 01:07 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

Shawn there is definitely a circulation, look at the NRL visible. It looks better than when it hit land.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 01:15 PM

TD # 3

Appears to be heading east right now on vis loop. Is this temporary?? Will a new LCC form under the deep convection?? Doubt it. Looks like it's making it's move. If it doesn't stall, it will spin fish. Cheers!! Steve H.

tom5r

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 06 2002 01:17 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

TD-3 is here for our entertainment pleasure. I dont think it's gonna do a thing. I've seen more impressive 'Nor Easters' on the Jersey shore. We in the Florida Keys are still watching for one of those bad boys coming off the African coast that tend to bee-line straight towards us.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 01:58 PM

Re: TD # 3

does appear to have moved SE. The center is clearly visable on sat. at 30.3 76.44. May just be a slight jog east on the continued south movement but only time will tell

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 02:24 PM

Re: TD # 3

now exposed at 30.36 76.4. Looks to be heading out. will probably be a fish spinner.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 02:31 PM

At Closer Inspection...

TD #3 appears to have the LCC wobbling in a loop. We'll see if this thing goes NE or sits. Got a feeling if it doesn't make it's move today, someone may have trouble on the east coast. Evn though it's getting sheared right now and has it's northern half exposed, the overall circulation is more symetrical. If if stays put for 24 hours, and has the ridge build over it...look out. Cheers! Steve H.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 04:40 PM

I'm Losing IT!

During the past hour, it appears that TD#3 has lost the LLC, as it has gottten sucked into the MLC underneath the center. Could a new center be emerging to the SW??? Check the NRL vis loop out. Cheers!! Steve H.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 04:50 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

I've looked at the visible, Radar, and IL and I can't detect any E motion to this except for a jog right around 11AM. It also makes you wonder how there are no probabilities for Florida even though it's right on it's doorstep. Maybe that's why I don't work at the NHC.
Keith

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 04:58 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

I have been tracking the center all morning on visibles. I have it at 30.4 76.42. It is completely open on the northern side. It has been basically sitting still for the past few hours. If anything, it has nudged a tiny bit west in the past hour. It's so close to the magical 30 degree mark that I can't beleive they aren't discusing the possibility of the trough passing it by. Also, it apears to be to the west of the main trough axis. Am I wrong on this????

nickd

(Registered User)

Tue Aug 06 2002 05:11 PM

stalled

i agree. It doesn't look like it's moved that much at all. Has the LLC moved under the convection? In the next few hours we will find out more. Is it me or has the NHC been sleeping lately? On Sunday they acted like nothing notable was going to come out of the Gulf system and all of a sudden we have TD #2 and then hours later we have Bertha. Even on the weather channel at around 3:00 they said lots of rain but no tropical formation when you could see clearly from the radar that something was spinning tightly. I wonder how many people in Louisiana got caught off guard with Bertha? Don't get me wrong I fully respect the NHC as one should but I do have questions about their methods of doing things. Just my 2 cents.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 06:01 PM

Re: stalled

I have lost the center as it is backing SW under the convection. should be upgraded soon. Probably an intermediate advisory coming out soon.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 06:27 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

What kind of storm magnet does Shawn keep in his pocket...it seems to draw every system toward Texas.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 06:30 PM

Reformation?

It's hard to say exactly what is happening with TD#3, there are actually several things at once!

However, it looks like either the mlc is shearing to the sw away from the LLC, OR, the LLC is reforming to the SW..any way you look at it, no e or se motion at this time, and if a sw motion is materializing, that spells out a possible threat to Fl.

A shallow system (weak) will be more likely to move sw in the ll flow; as the system gets stronger, it is more likely to move with the UL flow, e and NE, unless it gets 'left behind'.

Timing is, as always, everything!

IHS,

Bill

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 06:36 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

I must say it looks like the ramains of Bertha are heading right for the water again. I looked at the radar from Baton Rouge and it clearly shows the circulation headed more in a SSW motion than SW. If this continues then it will have alot of water to try and reform in. My verdict is still out on TD#3. I'm certainly leaning towards a threat to someone along the gulf coast, though.

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 06:45 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

Ok where is this so called ESE motion that's in 11am advisory? I have been looking at this close up and if anything it's nearly stationary or drifting SW. NHC is holding off on an advisory to upgrade and will wait for confirmation from Recon. This needs to be closely watched...

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 06:48 PM

Re: Here's Bertha...

Jason's,

What do you guys think?????

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 06:58 PM

Bouy Info

It looks as if things are getting going out there.
The winds are picking up and the pressure continues to fall.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41010

garyb

(Weather Guru)

Tue Aug 06 2002 07:40 PM

NUMERICAL MODELS

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (AL032002) ON 20020806 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020806 1800 020807 0600 020807 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.3N 76.3W 29.2N 76.4W 28.1N 75.9W
BAMM 30.3N 76.3W 29.9N 76.4W 29.4N 75.6W
A98E 30.3N 76.3W 30.7N 76.1W 30.9N 74.4W
LBAR 30.3N 76.3W 30.0N 75.6W 30.8N 74.7W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020808 0600 020808 1800 020809 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.4N 75.1W 27.6N 74.2W 29.0N 71.4W
BAMM 29.1N 73.1W 30.4N 68.9W 35.4N 62.3W
A98E 29.9N 74.6W 30.1N 74.0W 28.8N 73.2W
LBAR 33.0N 72.6W 36.8N 69.1W 48.6N 58.1W
SHIP 47KTS 51KTS 53KTS
DSHP 47KTS 51KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.3N LONCUR = 76.3W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 77.0W DIRM12 = 160DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 32.0N LONM24 = 77.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 06 2002 07:45 PM

Re: NUMERICAL MODELS

After looking at Vis loop it appears the LLC on outside NE side of convection is moving east, although the question is whether a new LLC is developing under deep convection?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 08:26 PM

Re: TD 3# Forms

Sat. pic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Looks like it is 150 miles East of Cape Canaveral.

Radar:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=kcof&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RegionalRadarLoop&prodnav=none&pid=none
You can see the storm swirling about.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 08:36 PM

Looks Like the Old LLC

Is gone. Got shredded by the shear. If there isn't one under the canopy of convection this thing is toast. If it's there, the east coast of Florida may have problems. Cheers!!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 06 2002 08:41 PM