(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 11:43 AM

Hey Steve - Warnings shifted west

Morning all.... Northern gulf coasters have something to watch for sure today....

Hanna is maintaining its deep convection to the south of the LLC this morning based on latest IR... started developing this convection last night around 10:00 pm... thus the upgrade to TS. This is our second TS warning for the MS coast this year, and if old Edouard would not have fizzled out, we could have experienced three TS warnings ... whether or not Hanna impact the MS area that much remains to be seen as I would expect the center to pass to the east of us, along with all the associated severe type weather. .. but the more this thing drifted west, as it has done the past 24 hours, the more likely the NHC had to extend the warning areas to the west..

From what I monitored last night and this morning, the system did not make any discernable loop per se, nor did the LLC wash out and relocate to the SE.... what it does next remains to be seen...

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 13 2002 11:46 AM

East of caribbean system

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/sju/AFD/SJUAFDSJU.1.txt

Here is the discussion from the NWS in San Juan that says all of what this potential wave soon to be TD#10 will do in the caribbean this weekend.I will keep in touch with all the info that will come regarding this system that by the time it nears PR it may be TS Isidore.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 11:54 AM

Latest model runs.... for what they are worth...

Several models take the system just east off the mouth of the MS River and then turn Hanna back to the NNE… GFDL has it going through Ocean Spring/Pascagoula Ms area, but predicted intensity is off because the storm is already stronger right now than the model indicates it will be at land fall…

Hey Cycloneye, you keep us informed on what's going on down there... right now people along the gulf coast are focusing a little closer to home... but anything in the Caribbean down the road is always an interest to us...

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 12:15 PM

Latest recon data not impressive

223
URNT12 KNHC 131134
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1134Z
B. 27 DEG 20 MIN N
89 DEG 15 MIN W
C. NA
D. 20 KT
E. 300 DEG 020 NM
F. 012 DEG 28 KT
G. 303 DEG 019 NM
H. EXTRAP 1002 MB
I. 24 C/ 380 M
J. 25 C/ 384 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. 0.1/3.0 NM
P. AF968 0609A HANNA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 28 KT W QUAD 1127Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 12:22 PM

Here's the deal...

>>AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

This storm has already moved beyond 89 west. NO advisory or discussion by the TPC or really anyone here but Frank P had the storm crossing 89. The storm is moving NW at 7. While I expect a turn to the N and then NE like almost all North Gulf storms do, I'm sticking with my landfall between Biloxi and Daupin Island. New Orleans just got our first little band (?) of rain moving through. It was pretty strong and lasted for about 4 minutes. Not much wind, just a downpour. I haven't even made it over to the NWS to see where it came from, but I'm assuming it developed S and moved across.

As noted by several people yesterday, the MLC was NOT going to take over this storm. In any event, heavy rains should affect MS, AL and FL and POSSIBLY (but less likely) extreme SE LA tonight and tomorrow. I'm betting Hanna reaches at least 60 knots by landfall and should make for an interesting weekend for everyone east of me and west of St. George.

Goes to show that none of us - including the experts in Miami, State College and Washington DC really ever knows what's going to happen with a tropical storm. There's a lesson in this storm - as in most - that it's all guesswork.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 12:25 PM

Yep.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml

Came up from the south. It's the most-outer band. So hey, I guess I can't complain about this season - nothing overly exciting in N.O., but rain from at least 3 different systems has fallen on my house this year. That hasn't happened since 1985.

Steve

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 12:32 PM

Hey Steve, gotta love it this morning ...

Ms Hanna doesn't look at that impressive to me right now... looking at the latest IR loop it certainly gives the impression she continues to have stacking problems, in that the MLC might still be off to the east somewhat... still has plenty of time to reach strong TS status though... regardless, should be quite a rainmaker for somebody, and hopefully in the areas of AL/GA that really need it...

Looking forward to the first visibles...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 12:58 PM

Western Gulf

Guess we better keep an eye out. That blob is getting bigger. BarryB

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 12:59 PM

Re: Hey Steve, gotta love it this morning ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

Latest IR shows almost a WNW movement of Hanna. Give cudos to the MM5 and Canadian models which appear to have the best handle on the system though may be biased westward. Should Hanna continue to move NW until at least the 1PM CDT advisories come out, it's a mouth of the Missississipi storm. Let me say that I have not even once speculated this far of a western component if it holds up. I will be surprised.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 01:02 PM

Re: Hey Steve, gotta love it this morning ...

Looking at the Shortwave IR, the LLC seems to be due south of the mouth of the Mississippi moving generally off to the west. One thing is for sure, she is still poorly organized.

I don't know what to think, I guess we will just have to watch and see what happens.

Houstontracker

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 01:14 PM

Nothing surprises me anymore...

with these tropical systems because I stay surprised... they sure can make me look silly at times with my analysis that's usually already off by the time I post it... Hanna is going to have to make a big right hand turn soon... or throw out all the models and start over... still looks to be a marginal TS at best right now, and that's being generous by the NHC... buoy data basically supports a TD only...

fun huh...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 01:33 PM

Re: Nothing surprises me anymore...

Yea for sure. Looks like the last couple of frames on the loop are coming up blank now, must be some sort of problem.

Looks to me like Hanna might be a Louisiana landfall now, really gonna have to make a big turn to miss. Still, most of the weather should be well east of the center unless she can get it together soon.

Something still might be brewing in the BOC along the Mexican coast. I would just as soon see Hanna get out of the way and see if we can get a true tropical system going down there.

Houstontracker

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 13 2002 01:56 PM

Gotta give credit....

I sure didn't think we'd see this much west component last night....kudos to you Frank!

2 vis's in so far...too early to tell much about motion, but the structure is basically unchanged...be interesting to see if she can convect in the next few hrs...

(User)

Fri Sep 13 2002 02:47 PM

goes out

think maybe its back online, but goes 8 was out for a while this morning, giving garbage images. not too hard to discern that the west/weak option is the viable one with hanna. instead of turning NE into a more favorable environment the storm decided to suck up more subsidence back west.. so what we have is the new version of the same old thing: for the life of this system it has insisted on shooting itself in the foot. funny that 2nd guess at pascagoula, which was based solely on the first leg of that little westward semicircle jog hanna took yesterday morning.. may actually end up working.
so, deep convection removed, center in the subsidence, weaker west option with hanna. basically another bertha for all of you on the central gulf coast.
99L... its moving fast. for all the better organization seen with it, it still has this basic problem: forward speed. hadnt really considered this until i thought about every other fast moving weak system near the caribbean.. they all tend to remain poorly organized until they slow down. maybe it has slowed just a tad since yesterday.. but not going to develop very fast unless it does some more.
up the road, probably will have developed into something.. a struggling system moving westward across the caribbean might in the long run be worse for us. a quick developer would want to take the first trough elevator out into fish spinner country it could find. something over in the western carib this time of year though.. heh.
west gulf: bastardi still eyeballing it so maybe that nagging suspicion is true. can see some disorganized convection down there right now, nothing too ominous looking.. but after hanna gets out of the way NE this area could try to spawn something.
other items: td7 remnants are now a pulse ahead of the big longwave off the east coast.. good riddance.
system near 25/55 right under the upper trough, not appearing very well organized, but still plenty of convection to go. the whole upper pattern here is transitioning, so hard to say exactly what happens with wave energy injected underneath. all in all not as organized as yesterday.
another fairly large wave came off africa the other day with no fanfare. no signature outside the itcz though.. but the enhanced convection down there is fairly prodigious. sideways chance, but something to monitor down the road (globals are noticing it even if theres not much on satelite).
a'ite, bout time for the next advisory..
HF 1440z13september

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 02:51 PM

Hey Jason....

thanks... gotta give Steve a pat on the back to as he was the only one on the board that predicted a landfall west of Al. Yesterday he said between Biloxi and Dauphin Is... so cudos to my Nawlins neighbor too..

one thing bothers me about this setup...

wouldn't you expect that the longer Hanna stay out, not really moving that fast towards the north, the greater the turn off to the NE will be... for MS to really have any impact, I would think that Hanna needs to hurry up and go more north... the longer its stays out, the greater the impact would be to the east of MS ... still making it a weather event for Al and Fl coasts...

Radar shows the first feeder bands approaching the MS coast this morning...

Center appears to be located at 27.6 and 89.4 based on latest vis pix...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 02:58 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

I-75 Terrorist Investigation
I know it is off topic, and we are watching Hanna, but for anyone near I-75 (Alligator Alley) in Florida, it is closed for approx 20-25 miles due to investigation of *possible* terrorist plan to attack Miami. Live coverge on CNN,MSNBC, and Fox News. Just an FYI.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 03:05 PM

HF.... right on...

gotta give HF his credit as well because he predicted the pascagoula Ms area as well yesterday when we first started getting the wobble westward... be interesting to see where it eventually goes.... I'm still not counting out Pensacola as the target area...

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 13 2002 03:08 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

Question: this thing is like the other recent stroms...exposed llc...all the convection being dropped or slughed off to the south and east...so what happens to all that energy that is being left behind as it moves inland tonight? is that going to fuel development in the bay of Campeche?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 03:12 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

they are teens making small explozies for they're stupid gang wars with a gang in Miami.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 03:14 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

dont give kuddos to anyone till landfall. If it does make landfall in florida then frank and some of ya are wrong and others are right about panhandle.

(User)

Fri Sep 13 2002 03:34 PM

kudos? nah, ill have a screwdriver

dont give me any kudos anyway.. thus far i've said sarasota, gone to the MS coast, then changed it to back up the middle. dont know about your country, but where i come from thats TERRIBLE guesscasting.
have to say that this 'close in development' business is really a pain. what we end up with is lots of weak systems that have erratic tracks.. going for the 4th landfalling system of the year and still not a hurricane in the mix. since the magic date is getting closer, here's another factoid about how weird things have been--no landfalling hurricanes in the u.s. since irene on 15october1999. that was a long time and a lot of storms ago. gabrielle last september 14 with the 980mb pressure makes the streak questionable... but from an 'official' standpoint, this lucky streak is becoming ludicrous.
HF 1528z13september

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 03:46 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

Well, we are experienceing the first band of showers here in Mobile this am.

Southern

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 03:47 PM

10am Update...

TPC centers the storm at 89.4W and says the turn to the North should happen anytime now. You can see the mid-level trof coming across central LA, so a LA landfall as west as the TS Warnings go (Grand Isle) is next to being out of the question. On the official track, Hanna will be making 2 landfalls - one across the LA Delta and the other just east of Pascagoula/Moss Point in Jackson County, MS.

For any of the LA wishcasters out there, it doesn't look like this trof will miss a connection with Hanna. That's probably a less than 5% chance, so don't get excited like I know you are.

Current Probabilities give the nod to Mobile @ 49%, Buras @ 62% and Gulfport @ 51%. New Orleans is at 43% which I'm thinking is high, and Pensacola is at 41%.

So as I've been saying

, this is a MS, AL, FL storm with the bulk of the heaviest convection likely to be from the MS/AL border over to Panama City.

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 04:11 PM

Hey doug...

http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/caribbean-ir.gif

That's a link to a high resolution IR picture out of CSU. Check out the BoC. Definitely looking much better organized than it has to date. Note the curved/banding/arcing shape of the clouds. This might be a SE TX weather maker early next week if it hangs around for a while. To me, it has the look of another future tropical storm.

Steve

(User)

Fri Sep 13 2002 04:11 PM

hey..

look at the visibles on that system in the bay of campeche...
its going inland.. but does look to be developing. its near 22/98, not too far east of tampico. low level inflow clouds look banded.
want another...? see that hooked low level signature near 24/58, moving west...? that is the wave that has been bursting convection for days NW of 99L. it is going under the amplification off the east coast.. tough for it that it has passed the old upper trough axis behind and all the convergence is east and behind it. still have to see what sets up ahead.. shear isnt too bad if it stays south, and as the old TUTT behind reconfigures the easterlies should come back. 99L is going to rocket by to the south next couple of days.. hard to say what this thing will do if it stays together.
HF 1556z13september

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 04:22 PM

Re: 10am Update...

Well my personal perdiction on landfall isnt final yet. I gave a swath from cedar key(which wont exactly happen) to pensacola in florida with a landfall close to Panama city. At first i did say watches might go up from tampa to there but almost none of us forcasters expect such a w turn. At first most of the models even said across central florida then been backing around to the w almost every run. Anyways with that said my intensity forcast is still on and still most of the moisture will be a Florida thing. Late last night the pressure went up slightly and pressures in the mid low to the ese went down. As the NHC perdicted though the mid level low faded leaving the pressure low but keeping the original LLC intact. Infact with the mid level low fading out the LLC became more dominate and presures droped again to 1001mb. Forcast is a landfall near Mobile to Panama city. Most weather though will be to the east of there possible as far south as Tampa. Though Hanna will come onshore late tonight as I expected all along, more pops will be expected in Tampa far away from the center compared to Mobile only about 50 miles from the center. I expect breezy conditions near landfall with moderate bands moving onshore at landfall from Mobile east. But winds near TS strength will be e of there near Pensacola east to Panama city. Otherwise not much to say. System off the leewards still doesnt have a closed LLC and I dont expect it to over the next 24-36 hours.
scottsvb HURRICANEUPDATECENTER

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 04:31 PM

Hey Anon....

I've never predicted the MS coast in any of my posts as the targeted area... .. All I've stated during the past 12 hours or so is that I thought the system might have a more westerly component.... This was primarily based on certain models that I think have been performing somewhat accurate of late... If it hits the MS coast, then I was wrong in my initial targeted area... My targeted area has been, and still is the Pensacola and Florida panhandle area... that should be where most of the severe weather occurs... IMO

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 05:25 PM

Turn to the north starting?

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=kmsy&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=VisibleSatelliteLoop&prodnav=none&pid=none

I put up the intellicast link because the Goes was repositioned in the last few frames. It appears to me that there is only a drift NW-NNW at this time. I have no idea what the time intervals are for intellicast's frames, so this may be just an hour or two's worth of movement. Still, I think the motion is now responding to the mid-level trof in East-Central LA - which btw, is starting to lift out. However, all airflow behind it is sweeping through, and with Hanna's at her current lattitude, there's still no way she misses the trof IMHO. Anyway, the turn north should be beginning. Had Hanna been 2 degrees further south, the next trof sweeping through would probably have picked her up anyway, but she may have had time to strengthen into something more substantial.

Btw, it was >>>>me<<<< who called for a MS landfall, but I may still be too far west. But like everyone else, I believe W FL gets the bulk of the precip. Speaking of that, there is a surge heading up toward Bay County area.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 05:30 PM

slowing down?

Looking at the last couple of hours of vis sat loop appears to indicate that Hanna does not appear to moving very much at all, almost stationary... maybe this is the beginning of the big turn... who the heck knows... still not all that impressive overall but does have a tightly wrapped LLC...

Frank P.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 05:53 PM

Re: slowing down?

Agree--the storm seems to be stationary again, wobbling a little perhaps, but no real movement. Convection is building toward the center fromt he se , less banding on the west at the same time.

Normally when a system pulls up stationary, it means a change is about to happen...we will see...the trof is not exerting as much pull as expected.

IHS,

Bill

andy1tom

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 13 2002 06:02 PM

Re: Turn to the north starting?

how much of a surge?? I have been flip flopping about taking my boat out of the water.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 06:32 PM

From the 1 o'clock update...

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 13 2002 06:42 PM

PC Surge...

Andy,

High Tide at the PC pass is around 4 am Sat morning....and it is a pretty high tide for this area...about 2 feet...we are gonna have a good fetch thru the pass opening today, so I'd expect High Tide to be about 3-4 above normal...I'd definatly loosen up the lines if you do decide to leave it in the water.

andy1tom

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 13 2002 06:49 PM

Re: PC Surge...

Thanks, I am gonna play chicken little and take it out. You can thank me for causing it to keep way west of here.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 06:50 PM

N-NNE wobble?

Last vis sat pix loop I looked at gave the impression of a POSSIBLE NNE or N wobble... starting to get delirious watching the loops... time for me to take a break... later gang...

Frank P

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 07:03 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

there is a lot of dry air to the west can this thing still fire up or get left it is realy bad here in pensacola but by the storm nice and sunny

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 07:46 PM

Oh oh

The storm is begining to wrap up while sitting stationary. Convection is moving closer to the center according to latest visible pics.

IHS,
Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 07:48 PM

And upon closer examination...

The slightest eastward drift is seen...about 3 mph....

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 08:06 PM

Re: And upon closer examination...

I see no movement at all. How long has she been sitting in the same spot? She does look to be wrapping up a little better. Joe B is still concerned about a period of very rapid intensification before landfall. The longer she sits, the better the chance of this coming to pass. I am still leaning toward a moderate TS, but could surprise us all and make minimal Hurricane

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 08:14 PM

Here's Joe's 3:30 update.

3:30 pm observations on tropics.. Hanna: Hanna may be getting ready to get its act together as the past few hours it appears the system has stopped and allowing convection to start to close in on it. In addition, if one looks at the large ellipse of dry air around it, one notices it now shifted northwest of the system, as if Hanna is now near of south of the mid level circulation that has been looping her around, not south and southeast. If this speculation is correct then it means the low level center moves in a direction to INTERSECT with the convection that has been following this, not away from it. All this is of course speculation, but Bertha deepened modestly in these waters before landfall, its later in the year a better surface map and upper map, and so I will hold with my landfall pressure at 995 or lower. I will know tonight as we will be able to see if this speculation is correct.

--------------------------
Expect the 4pm TPC update to read something like this, "Hanna is basically stationary. We've expected this all along as it now beings its much anticipated movement to the NNE. Pressures haven't fallen much this afternoon, but there is a possbility of some strengthening prior to landfall late tonight." - You've heard it all before.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 08:23 PM

Re: hey..

where o where is hannah gonna go???

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 08:39 PM

Re: hey..

She is deepening. The pressure at all bouys both north, east, west. and south of her are down quite a bit. Look for at least 50mph winds at next update.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 08:50 PM

Re: hey..

Could be... convection firing off to the east of the center... this is the first time all day any significant convection has developed near the center... looking at the latest vis loops, does hint to have a NNE wobble to it, maybe..

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:03 PM

Movement does look NNE.

I just saw this on the last visible loop. This movement shouldn't lead anybody to a definite solution, though. Hanna has a track record of wobbling...so could just be a flucuation. If the recent burst of convection near the center sustains itself, intensifies, or expands I'd expect some strengthening tonight. Nothing is in stone yet...we'll see what 5 PM NHC advisory says.

Future Isidore is going through a bit of a dowturn in convection today...just a stage developing systems go through. Expect it to rebound tonight and really crank up tomorrow. Recon may just find a surprise if they go in there tomorrow. Nearly all of the models show at least a respectable TC moving through Caribbean early next week. With such great agreement among the models I really can't argue against this not developing into something significant eventually. It will just take time. My thoughts on this in the storm forum will come soon.

Kevin

Expericing some heavy rain and gusty winds here from outer bands of "Hanna".

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:06 PM

NHC confused...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.html
Probably an interesting evening.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:09 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

Hey i think the storm is getting better organized to well i want it to get to maybe about 60 mph cuz i live near pensacola an well im getting real excited i wanna see something outta this one

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:19 PM

Stationary

Reviewing the latest vis loop Hanna has not move much in the past hour... and practically none in the past thirty minutes or so.... convection continues to build off to the east and southeast of center... may take a while to see any increase in wind velocities, if at all.... does look better this afternoon than earlier today... buoy data certainly supports TS status now, didn't this morning..

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:21 PM

Hanna

Well, it's time to post my thoughts, I guess. I saw the latest visible satellite shots, and it is definitely building more convection near the center. Since no one has accurately predicted what this girl will do, why not expect the worst?.. If she stays out there long enough, a hurricane, even a moderate cat 2 or worse, could appear. No one has mentioned whether there is a nice ridge above, or good outflow, etc. What do you all think? I have watched enough of these since 79 to know strengthening beyong current guesses is quite possible. As far as movement......I agree that when they stall...it generally means there is a shift in the upper steering currents...which puts anywhere north of here at risk.

I might as well throw out a prediction....I think it will grow to a CAT 2 or better, and of course...hit Mobile....but that's only cause it will make for an exciting evening and morning....oh, and landfall will be tomorrow around 12 midnight....if it stays out longer than that...then it could be a real juicy one.....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:27 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

Im with u Rick maybe a moderate cat 1 if it sits out there any longer. it is getting better organized as we speak. guess we will wait an see

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:28 PM

LMAO!

>>I might as well throw out a prediction....I think it will grow to a CAT 2 or better, and of course...hit Mobile....but that's only cause it will make for an exciting evening and morning....oh, and landfall will be tomorrow around 12 midnight....if it stays out longer than that...then it could be a real juicy one.....

Naturally it's going to hit Mobile

. I missed that eternally optimistic wishcasting for a strong storm. You get a shot at this one, but I don't see Cat-2. Latest WV, IR and VIS all show what appears to be deepening though. The convection is nosing off to the NW while the center remains stationary. Last couple of frames reverse the former, apparent eastward jog and either put it right back where it was or maybe a tad bit north.

Ice up that sixer if you're in AL this weekend.

Steve

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:29 PM

NHC getting cocky this afternoon too..

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2002

...HANNA REFUSES TO MOVE...BUT IT WILL...

Gotta love em at the NHC... sometimes they throw in a little sneaky sense of humor...

Heck, I could have forecasted that... hehe

Tracking these stubborn storms gives me the feeling like I'm just watching my grass grow...

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:38 PM

Cat 5 Rick is back

Nice to hear from you Rick... heck, we all know that anything and everything is possible with these systems... regardless, the port city should be right in the middle of what ever this thing becomes...

My earlier thoughts today was for it to be a strong TS say 60K winds... I think I'll stick with that right now, thought that might be a little high based on todays lack of development, but looks like its trying for that last comeback before it moves inland...

but hey, if I knew where it was going and how strong it would be when it hit, I'd be at the casinos right now winning some big bucks.

BTW, I have a brother in Mobile named Rick and he to is a storm fanatic, like the rest of us...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:45 PM

Hanna should crawl in witha whimper

I don't see any strenthening. There's just too much dry air over her llc. Once it moves across the shore it should acelerate some to the Notheast. Hopefully for Ga., Sc. Ala. and the panhandle will get some beneficial rains.

For any substantial strenthening to occur , Hanna needs to get away from the upper level dry air.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:52 PM

What if she misses the trough?

Is that possible? It looks like in another 6-8 hours the trough will be gone. Is she too shallow to be picked up?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 09:55 PM

Ship and buoy reports

Ship report at 27N and 88.7W noted pressure at 1001.7 MB, but then again their barometer might not be calibrated either...

13/21 C6FM6 27.0 -88.7 25.0 24.0 180 28 1001.7 10.7 30.0

also looks like some convection trying to build off to the NE of center and all the recent developing convection obsecuring some of the center... pressures continue to fall across the northern gulf coast

http://www.ems.psu.edu/wx/buoydata/curr/gulfofmex.html

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 10:05 PM

Re: Ship and buoy reports

center now appears to be completely covered. Now lets see how fast she can deepen.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 10:09 PM

Re: Ship and buoy reports

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 10:20 PM

Recon data still unimpressive

629
URNT12 KNHC 132101
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2101Z
B. 27 DEG 46 MIN N
89 DEG 09 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1443 M
D. 25 KT
E. 314 DEG 055 NM
F. 034 DEG 26 KT
G. 315 DEG 084 NM
H. 1003 MB
I. 18 C/ 1578 M
J. 20 C/ 1537 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.1/ 5 NM
P. AF967 0709A HANNA OB 02
MAX FL WIND 26 KT NW QUAD 2036Z.

keep watching to see if convection continues around the center... if trend continues maybe some strengthening will occur later tonight... who knows with this pyscho babe...

WV loop does show quite a bit of dry air off to the northwest of the center as cool poster earlier...

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 13 2002 10:40 PM

Re: Hanna

Are you sure ?? I'm in Mobile looking at blue skies and calm winds at the moment. Do you think Hanna's been Dyn-O-Gelled ??

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 13 2002 10:51 PM

Hanna looking stronger!

Looking at latest view Hanna appears to be getting her act together. A 75mph Hurricane is not out of the question from where I stand.......

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 13 2002 10:51 PM

Re: Hanna

mbfly, I think what's really happening is all that louisiana hot sauce flushing out of the MS river is stoping Hanna dead in it's track..

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 11:04 PM

something different

hanna is done moving west for now im guessing. decided to finally develop some convection near the center too.. obs are showing pressure falls so maybe it will deepen some. i'm wondering if it will want to move as sharply north as the official forecast shows.. still have NE in mind. worst weather out of this one--panhandle, of course.
99L: going too fast, this one is. it cant organize because it is racing. might blow all the way across the caribbean before getting its act together. but i do think it will.
elsewhere: bermuda triangle--area is confused with bursts of convection in places. the old hook of thunderstorms on that wave is indiscernable now, just diffluence convection on the east side of the waning TUTT, heading on up the front end of the west atlantic trough. some more back behind the base of the trough, east of the bahamas. a couple of models still showing surface weather in this whole disturbed area, but none are making anything out of it. still it has my eye.
SW gulf--nope, went inland.
HF 2259z13september

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 13 2002 11:29 PM

The beginning???

Strengthening beginning??

375
URNT12 KNHC 132251
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2251Z
B. 27 DEG 46 MIN N
88 DEG 59 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1436 M
D. 50 KT
E. 029 DEG 021 NM
F. 163 DEG 41 KT
G. 043 DEG 108 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 17 C/ 1517 M
J. 22 C/ 1528 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.1/ 5 NM
P. AF967 0709A HANNA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 52 KT E QUAD 2144Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Sep 13 2002 11:41 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

lions said the storms near hanna are high clouds in fact wind at low levels are only 25 kt if that the case will not grow anymore.and from what he said no ones doing anything to get ready but it will be nice at pensacola beach sat i gess what could have been.he is the pro everyone just dont no i gess

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:03 AM

Re: The beginning???

Hey Jason.... can you traslate that into English for us non-meteorologist plain folks ?? I love this site and depend on it a lot, but some of it is over my head! What does this mean ? Winds picking up, pressure dropping ??? Still calm here in Mobile......
Thanks !!

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:12 AM

Re: The beginning???

oops.... that's "translate" (I guess hooked on phonics didn't work for me !) *sheepish grin*

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:20 AM

Re: The beginning???

Sure..from the FSU guide to decoding recon...

A. Date and time of fix...
B. Latitude of the vortex fix in degrees and minutes...
Longitude of the vortex fix in degrees and minutes...
C. Minimum height of a standard pressure level, given in meters... .
D. Estimate of maximum surface wind observed in knots...
E. Bearing and range from center of the maximum surface wind, given in degrees and nautical miles...
F. Maximum flight level wind near storm center with direction from center given in degrees, and speed in knots...
G. Bearing and range from center of maximum flight level wind, given in degrees and nautical miles from the storm center...
H. Minimum sea level pressure computed from dropsonde or extrapolation from within 1500 feet of the sea surface, given in millibars...
I. Maximum flight level temperature in Celsius / Pressure altitude in meters, OUTSIDE the eye...
J. Maximum flight level temperature in Celsius / Pressure altitude in meters, INSIDE the eye...
K. Dewpoint temperature in Celsius / Sea surface temperature in Celsius inside the eye...
L. Eye character...brief verbal description such as poorly defined, closed wall, open to NW, etc.
M. Eye shape orientation and diameter...Eye shapes are codes as follows: C-circular; CO-concentric; E-elliptical. Orientation of major axis of ellipse is transmitted in tens of degrees, and all diameters are transmitted in nautical miles.
N. Confirmation of lat/long/time fix with format as in A and B above.
O. Fix determined by / fix level...There are five means of determining fixes and nine means of indicating fix level. The fix determination will be a series of one to five numbers depending on how many items were used to determine the position of the storm center. The coding is as follows: 1-Penetration, 2-Radar, 3-Wind, 4-Pressure, 5-Temperature. The fix level will be either one or two numbers, depending on whether or not the surface and flight level centers were the same. The surface center will be given if visible, both the surface and flight level centers will be indicated only when they're the same. The coding is as follows: 0-surface, 1-1500 ft, 8-850 mb, 7-700 mb, 5-500 mb, 4-400 mb, 3-300 mb, 2-200 mb, 9-Other.
P. Navigation fix accuracy in nm / Meteorological accuracy in nm...
Q. Remarks Section.

Sorry for the length...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:36 AM

Re: LMAO!

I think everyone is in a wait & see mode with this lady!!!!

(User)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:37 AM

deepening?

for once the center isnt exposed. convection going off right next to the center.. the snowball is rolling. eastward drift is also making landfall unlikely west of mobile, making the western panhandle the primary target. maybe even as far over as bay county. the chance this will cross the coast as a weak hurricane has also become less off the wall.. could very well be a minimal hurricane crossing the coast if it keeps lingering offshore and develops a constant cdo tonight..
perhaps i should drive over there and catch the action.. might be worth it.
HF 0031z14september

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:38 AM

Re: The beginning???

Hey jason do you think yhis eastward drift is only temp.?

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:44 AM

Re: deepening?

Come on down! I'll be here!

LOL...

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:45 AM

Re: The beginning???

I'd say so, but if the more northward track doesn't begin pretty soon I'm gonna get nervous...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:52 AM

Re: LMAO!

jason nhc I/R IS OLD IFOUND A VIS JUST BEFORE DARK IT HAD GOT REAL BIG REAL FAST HAVE YOU SEEN THIS

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 01:01 AM

Re: The beginning???

They are mentioning an east drift...as well, the convection is over the top of the LLC..and appears to be blossoming. The only drawback is looking at the water vapor loops....it shows too much dryness on the west side...but it looks to me as though that is lessening now. No one should argue the fact that if Hanna sits there long enough...she will grow.

better go get some beer

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 01:15 AM

Re: LMAO!

HANNA REALY LOOKS STRONG ON SAT NOW WHAT DO YOU SEE JASON

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Sep 14 2002 01:24 AM

Re: QUESTION

I see what you guys are saying about the center being under the convection and have seen this in the loops, does this mean the center is relocating, or could it be?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 01:27 AM

Re: QUESTION

Typically, this would indicate better organization. Better organization means stronger system. This year, of course, most storms are not typical.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 14 2002 01:40 AM

Center relocation...

I don't think we will see a center relocation because she has such a well defined LLC...but that convective burst has really helped out her organization...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 01:47 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

Do u all out there think the NHC will up the winds the next advisory. I'm really hoping for a strong tropical storm or min. Huricane just cuz i never been in a storm so this is my first one so i want to be able to remember it somehow. so what do u all think

Bruce

(Weather Guru)

Sat Sep 14 2002 02:12 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

I have only seen Erin 95. Winds so strong at 90mph . If someone would have told me the wind could blow stronger, I would have said , "No Way".

57497479

(Weather Master)

Sat Sep 14 2002 02:27 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

Hana looks like she is still drifting /moving in a ENE direction. On the last frame of the loop it looks like the E side of the big ball of convection is being pulled toward the E. I know that her path is all up in the air and I suppose with her history, just about anything is possible especially if she continues to intensify. Please elaborate more on possible direction and how this will effect estimated time of landfall.
I have been following eveyones post and you all are doing a great job ! Toni

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 03:01 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

Jason Kelly, is there any way this storm could meander its way to north central florida?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 03:02 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

hmmm... the winds have been raised to 50mph now 65 mph gust the only problem now is the big convective burst is warming now. i think it will last but early saturday morning there will be another burst probably this will strngthen the storm right before it comes ashore. kinda like barry last year might make it to min. cat 1 if it can crank out another burst of convection. well thats my prediction i'll be here in gulf breeze near pensacola waiting on her

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 14 2002 03:04 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

Highly doubtful, although you might get some trailing winds and rains...the synoptics of it just aren't going to allow it to go that far east.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 03:07 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

IT LOOKED NICE FOR A WHILE NOW HERE COMES THE SOUTH WIND TO KILL HER THIS WILL BE IT FOR HANNA

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 03:16 AM

Pensacola update.......

Very windy. Gusts to around 30mph and it's not even here yet! You can go outside and just sense something is brewing. Bad part is, Hanna is looking more and more better organized. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 75mph Hurricane by tomorrow morning.

(User)

Sat Sep 14 2002 03:32 AM

ahhh @#%*&

center has jerked nnw since the last fix. pressure stable around 1002. they upped the winds based on flight level winds found well southeast of the center, but the highest buoy obs near the center are only 25kt or so. i dont get it.. center ricochets off the convection whenever it starts to line up. okay, last time i'm changing this.. alabama/mississippi border tomorrow 10am. 50mph tropical storm. pressure probably around 1002mb. hanna just doesnt seem to deepen like a normal system when it bursts convection. maybe its all that subsidence.
anyway 99L probably just an open trough, but convection is healthy. whatever gets over into the western carib from this next week can start brewing us up another storm.
noticed the nhc outlook mentioned a wave further back.. there is one at very low latitude around 35w. i wasnt paying any attention to it.. but they are.. so maybe i should too.
anyhow just another tropical storm, drawing a sideways S track in the gulf and not really changing its profile.
HF 0337z14september

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 04:53 AM

Re: ahhh @#%*&

Okay Okay Ok. Sorry all been at work all evening working on this system and i just got in to post on here. I dont need to progress on the strength of hanna as she is where we and the NHC expected though he slow move to the NNE is just that. I expected a early morning landfall around 6-9am eastern saturday morning and I will stay with that and my panama city to pensacola area forcast. Now 2 things could happen here and i feel the later of the 2 will. 1 Hanna gets another burst of convection and finds its way NE into the convection on its southern side and pressure drops to near 998mb winds go up to 60mph pushing the system to around pensacola area by mid morning Sat., or 2 she stays near the same or even weakens some to around 1006 mbs and gets pushed off ENE by the turning of the flow and moves in just south of Panama city giving apolachacola to Cedar Key the worst affects and a minimal TS. Im sticking with my above forcast feeling that she just cant get that move off to the NNE at 8-10mph as was expected this evening and will go with the mid level flow out of the sw and move NE with wobbles to the ENE at times. My timing then is late morning but who knows. She has been a pestering system in movements due to the weak flow and everything around her nudging her. With a weaker system if her presure rises alittle as i expect, then she will bring alot of rain to panama city and points east, but even as far west as Pensacola should continue to get bands. All in all next system will be coming from the carribean early next week. Sunday should be a day of development on this and mid week coming up will be interesting on the carribean system on where it wants to go. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter. Any questions feel free to ask.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 08:29 AM

Landfall #1...

The center - which is very evident on the shortwave IR is now over the Plaquimines Parish, LA (MS River Delta) between Boothville/Venice and Pilotown.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

1 landfall down. For a circulation center this close to me < 100 miles, winds are less than 5mph. Next landfall should be in a few hours. I'm still thinking it's going to be west of the MS/AL border. I've been on that skateboard for 2 days, I'm not about to jump off of it now. We've gotten a couple of rainbands, but nothing amounting to more than a half inch or so. Last night about 8:30pm, Metairie saw some brief, heavy downpours. We might get one or two more bands (tops) to move on through today. Still, the call for the bulk of the precip in NW FL and eastward seems like a good call.

Steve

(User)

Sat Sep 14 2002 11:05 AM

and #2..

well then.. pascagoula it is. be interesting to see if this system actually produces any gale force winds as it comes ashore. then beyond this, monday it could be redeveloping off the mid atlantic coast, if enough of the circulation survives crossing the southeast. due to orographic lifting the southern appalachians stand to pick up locally heavy rainfall amounts. since theres a five year/five foot rainfall deficit up there they stand to gain overall.
99L.. convection is very deep this morning east of trinidad. recon will be there within six hours to tell if there is a vortex somewhere in there. for those of you who like to drool over unlikely but scary gfdl runs, check the 00z. also notice the sharp, slow moving trough in the middle of the nation. globals have this thing negatively tilting over the east late next week.. THAT is a bad omen for landfall. better hope this thing doesnt develop.
back near 35w, low latitude.. strong, persistent convective burst. nhc analysis has a low with this feature.. if it keeps going like that we'll have another invest before long.
random thought: bahamas to florida, to eastern gulf. energy left behind from what split off the bottom of the amplification earlier this week.. backing up in hanna's wake.
just popped in my head.
why am i up so early? some jackass smoked things up downstairs and we had a dorm evacuation.. then the firemen went room to room and spent almost an hour getting sleepers out. not my idea of fun. but the outer rainband from hanna is just arriving, so not as bad as it could have been.
HF 1100z14september

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:04 PM

Hanna Moving/Isadore in the Making

Hanna is finally going to make landfa;;, but the convection is off to the esat and the panhandle & big bend may see more rain and wind than where she comes in. TD # 10 is now getting close IMO. Early vis loops shows a center beginning to form at about 11N/56W. Very low latitude for this , but it seems to be moving WNW...280? Lots of convection building on the west side of this so if it continues in this fashion, we could have Izzy by late tomorrow, maybe sooner. This one has me concerned for the SE coast or the GOM. This could develop progressively and be on the upswing as (if) it passes 75W (which I believe it will). Going to check the models for 6Z. Cheers!! Steve H.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Sep 14 2002 12:13 PM

Re: and #2..

HF, took a look at the GFDL and it does not look to good for South Florida. NOGAPS and UKMET also bring it up through the islands but further east over Haiti than through Cuba and up. Will have to wait, it is still early!

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 01:42 PM

Isidore in the Making

Looks like it is organizing but my question is if it is far south will the coast of SA affect it's intensification?Models are showing it going to the western caribbean but after that it is to early to speculate where it will go.

(Weather Master)

Sat Sep 14 2002 01:48 PM

Re: and #2..

Hanna: Circulation looks slightly elongated from w-e this morning, Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama Coast should get quite a weather day. Strong gusty winds, some isolated flooding along with tropical downpours, and isolated tornadoes/waterspouts are a good bet for this one.

99L: This one's is ready to pop and it probably already has. Convection is extremely vigorous this morning and a low level circulation may be forming just west of the heaviest convection. Model runs have me concerned...they all have a formidable system coming through the Caribbean. I'd have to think that if this one take a westerly route and curves northward over Cuba we'd have a major hurricane to deal late next week, but this is major speculation at this point. When Hanna finaly get out of our hair and we finally get 99L classified I'll take a more serious look at things though. I can say one thing for sure though: Look out if 99L continues to develop when it moves through the Eastern Caribbean Sea. Whenever you have a storm developing in a typical "dead zone" you know it's for real. We still need one major storm to make this season "balanced" and I think we may have one in the cards here.

Wave midway between Africa and Islands slowly trying to improve. Much less important than the front runner already near the islands. May develop slowly anyways.

Weather here in C. Florida is sort of weird. Breezy, the clouds are thin and milky and are allowing some nice sun to get through. Type of weather that would make you suspect a tropical entity was somewhere.

Kevin

Ed Dunham

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sat Sep 14 2002 02:08 PM

Re: Isidore in the Making

Here is a good link to bookmark for (near?) future reference.

Current Caribbean Weather

Cheers,
ED

57497479

(Weather Master)

Sat Sep 14 2002 02:31 PM

Re: Isidore in the Making

Thanks ED that is a great site. I agree, I believe we will need this site in the next several days. Invest 99 has me concerned will need to keep close tabs on this one!
Toni

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Sep 14 2002 02:37 PM

Biloxi obs

Hanna had very little effect for the Biloxi/Gulfport MS area... we had a couple of feeder bands over the night, and some minor flooding on HWY 90 due to the 3-4 foot high tides... but overall what you'd expect from being on the west side of a weak TS... looks like the center is passing off to the east of Pascagoula, and headed towards the MS/AL line

the thing that always amazes me is that you could still sense the potential power of even a weak tropical system.... Mobile taking the brunt of the very heavy rains this morning..

lowest pressure we had was around 29.70 or so, with some gusts maybe in the upper 20s...

actually Hanna looks better on the radar loop right now as it goes inland than any time prior....

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 14 2002 02:38 PM

Carribean wave

it looks like its a depression or storm now but to far south what looks to be the center is at 9 n and making landfall in NE Venezula. check it out on goes sat loops nice dense cloud structure with banding and a small cdo.

Southern4sure

(Weather Guru)

Sat Sep 14 2002 03:30 PM

Hanna in Mobile..........

well the 10 am cooridinates have Hanna just about sitting on my house. It is very breezy, raining, very tropical looking. But is not bad....just rain.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 03:32 PM

Wave in Windwards

Appears far south on vis loops but still trying to form a center. I figure the somewhere near 10.5N/59W is where the rotation will focus, since the bands to the north/northeast are still a sickle shape. It is very close though, but even if it does interact with land, I think it is a go as it moves west norrthwest during the next couple of days, which may slow it's intensification. That isn't necessarily a good thing though down the road. Let's see what the recon finds. Cheers!! Steve H.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 03:39 PM

Anybody knows about recon data from wave?

I am eagered to know since I am in the caribbean.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 14 2002 04:07 PM

Re: Anybody knows about recon data from wave?

I to am interested in what recon has to say im wondering if we might have an emilly down there. It seems the nhc isnt as good on updating its recon obs as much as they were last year does ne one notice this to or is it just me.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 04:27 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

Don't know where the recon reports are but NRL just put up a track map and show it at 30 knots. Maybe preliminary data they got in. But I believe we have TD #10. Should move to the WNW for the next coupla days. Cheers!! Steve H.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Sep 14 2002 04:28 PM

Re: Anybody knows about recon data from wave?

Just took a look at the NRL page and they have a Tropical cyclone formation alert: position 10.0N 59.0W moving WNW @15kts

www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Sep 14 2002 04:32 PM

Re: Steve you beat me to it

I'm just going to have to learn to type faster

(Weather Master)

Sat Sep 14 2002 04:59 PM

After reviewing visible satellite imagery...

It is becoming clearer to me that our soon-to-be TD#10/Isidore is not going to be sucked into South America. The only part of the system is the south side...barely edging extreme northern Venezuela. LLC is going to stay away from Venezuela it looks like. Slow development should occur in the E. Caribbean followed by more rapid intensification in C. Caribbean. Plenty of time to watch.

Hanna should be declared dead by tomorrow morning but very heavy rains a some gusty winds remain a threat through late tonight.

More thoughts to come later.

Kevin

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 05:00 PM

Re: Steve you beat me to it

TD appers to be forming east of Trinidad where pressure is 1010 mb. Likely little lower east of Trinidad where low pressure is located. Think we will see TD by late this afternoon. Motion should be toward WNW. There is some shear near 65w although this will weaken and is only a narrow area at best. So all in all conditions fairly favorable for further development. As all models pick up on this system and move it WNW or NW in time.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 14 2002 05:01 PM

winward islands

looks as if it trinidad is gonna get hit, i think its a depression right now maby a storm but i dont think the nhc will upgrade unless recon gives solid data or it starts to clear south amerrica.

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 05:02 PM

Re: Steve you beat me to it

Sorry,last post was me.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 05:52 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

Definitely close to land Kevin. Let's see if she'll be affected greatly by this. I don't think it will wipe it out. Hey Jeanine, if I beat ya it musta been by nanoseconds :>) Time will tell as usual. 6Z GFDL is having problems with its intensity (close up) window. But it shows it crossing Cuba and near Islamarada at 120, assume as a hurricane. It doesn't really intensify it until it's just north of Cuba. So the model shifted westward from 0Z. Let's see first if we'll have a storm in the Eastern Caribbean. Hanna looked better coming on shore than she did last night!! She should begin to wind down. Cheers!! Steve H.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:06 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

kevin storms dont exploded in the c carribean, they have to get w of haiti in the nw carribean to exploded usually.

GOMF

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:19 PM

TD now...

NRL just changed the wave entering the Caribbean to 10L.Noname...Cycloneye, too far south of PR so I guess we're safe.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:23 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

Gilbert did

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:23 PM

Re: TD now...

IR sat loop looks impressive. Low pressure center looks to be roughly near 10n/60w give or take a degree. Looks as though center will brush across Venezuela before turning more WNW.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:33 PM

Re: TD now...

368
WONT41 KNHC 141813
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2:15 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS FOUND THAT A SMALL 25 TO
30 MPH CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.
THE FIRST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

...is this too far south to actually survive??

GOMF

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:35 PM

Re: TD now...

I meant "too far south" to affect PR...

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:36 PM

Re: TD now...

TD#10 has formed first advisory out at 5 PM.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:38 PM

Td "10

Im doubting more and more now that td10 will be a south east issue more a yucatan issue or gulf. TD10 needs to gain some lattidude quickly if it wants to get to the southeast. Most of the models yesterday had it form much further north then it is now so im excpecting ne troughs to have les effect on td10. The one model i did see where it hit venuswale had it continue through much like Ts bret did in 93 and pop out in the sw carrib.

Late, Robert.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:38 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

As far as surviving, it all depends on which direction it will take. It survived so far so it has that going for it.

A litle more north of wnw in forward motion would help its survival rate. But, there have been storms that keep a steady w motion at that lat (Bret) and still survive, survive weakly, but they survive.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:48 PM

Re: TD now...

Yes Gome Puerto Rico is out on the clear from this but anyway some rain still may fall and some gusty winds also but the bulk of the bad weather will be south of PR.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 06:56 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

then again 10l could do a Gordon-
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1994/GORDON/track.gif

which would be be a W carribean E Gulf storm and a SE US storm all in one trip.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 14 2002 07:19 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

Yeah Gordon would be something, but if that happend i think this one would be stronger then gordon.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 07:27 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

the 12z runs that are out still show a more northerly movement than a straight W for the to be a td at 5pm storm.

I know the gfdl is a hype machine sometimes but its 12z run looks scary for S florida. Especially those little pieces of Paradise way down South on US 1

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 07:30 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

this could be the one all these toy storms this year now time for the real deal the gulf has been stormy the last 4 weeks high off the east coast end of the week the gulf will get the big one were it hits only time will tell in 2 days when it gets in west caib it will take off they dont like to do much in the east caib

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 07:31 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

great job this past week guys thanks it has been fun

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 07:41 PM

Forecast models?

Does anyone know where I can find a graphical representation of the different forecast tracks associated with newly formed TD#10? Thank you for the help!

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 07:47 PM

Two different systems?

Is it me or does it look like that there could be two different systems out by the islands. If this is the case than maybe BOTH the east coast and the gulf will have systems to worry about.Comments?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 08:06 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

Well I think we will have to see what evolves out of this system. The closed circulation is definitely hitting Venezuela now...the question is, will it get a northerly component to take it away from the SA coast?? Or, will that die and the wave develop one further north? Odds are that the one hitting Venezuela right now will come further NW with time and build as it moves into the central Carib, then tkae a track that is further west (eventually towards the Keys). But if it does not survive will it spawn a new low futher north. I'm way too impatient, so I better chill and watch. But this TD could have significant impacts down the road IF it stays together. Cheers!! Steve H.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 08:36 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002

AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATED THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FOUND A SMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A
LARGE ENVELOPE...CURVED BANDS AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE
EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION WILL
BE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND IS MOVING TOO FAST. THEREAFTER...IF IT
SURVIVES THE EFFECTS OF LAND...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND DECREASES ITS FORWARD SPEED. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSIFY THE DEPRESSION SIGNIFICANTLY...MIGHT AS WELL NOT MENTION
HOW STRONG...BUT THE UNBEATABLE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL ONLY SHOWS A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OR MORE. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WEAKENS. GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED INTO TWO BRANCHES. THE
STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN...AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA OR EASTERN CUBA. THE GFDL IS IN
BETWEEN...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER CUBA AND THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTING FEW DAYS AHEAD.

AT THIS TIME...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY SQUALLS
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 10.1N 61.5W 25 KTS
12HR VT 15/0600Z 10.5N 64.5W 25 KTS
24HR VT 15/1800Z 12.0N 67.5W 30 KTS
36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.5N 70.5W 40 KTS
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.5N 73.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 76.0W 60 KTS

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 08:52 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

Models vary on future track of this system. GFDL brings this to CAT 3 into SW FL. AVN/NOGAPS/UKMET turn this NW then N. Although AVN brings it closer to FL than the other two. Haven't seen other NHC models, but looks like an intresting week ahead!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 08:57 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

Here we go again as a maybe storm for someone becomes everyones storm even though it might not make it past Venezuela. The models which in my opinion are wortheless and have been proven of no value more than 72 hours out are being touted and soon the tv weathermen will be talking about preperations for the week ahead. If I've learned anything over the last 5 years it is to ignore all predictions more than 3 days out and take anything less with a great deal of doubt. The only certainties are that were I live in Stuart we are well protected by troughs that will steer all storms away yet my homeowners insurance for hurricane protection will continue to skyrocket.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 14 2002 10:57 PM

Re: Wave in Windwards

is that a trough that stays there year round??

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Sep 14 2002 11:21 PM

Hey weather1...

http://www.hurricanealley.net/

http://www.net-waves.net/weather/tropics.php

Those are pretty good too. There's another one at Hurricane City, but I don't have it bookmarked.

L8R,

Steve

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 15 2002 12:28 AM

The future of TD#10

As expected, we have TD#10. What can I say? Well, nothing much. I'm trying not to speculate with this one and I'm just not going to. Here are my thoughts:
1. It is getting away from Venezuela, but barely. If the storm's convection is still strong and safely away from SA in the morning I'll be content to say TD10 will have passed it's first major test. It's 75% there right now.
2. Eastern Caribbean: I don't expect this storm to due a whole lot here. It might strengthen to a 35-45 knot storm in this area. The intensification should really speed up in the Central Caribbean.
3. Forward speed: I believe it's reasonable to think that as TD10 gains latitude it will slow down, giving oppurtunity for intensification. Still hauling butt for the next 24 hours though. Of course, this will just get it away from SA and get it out of the Eastern Caribbean quicker. A double-edged sword I suppose.
4. Track should become more west-northwest anytime in next 12-36 hours.

That's basically all I have to say at this point. I'm zipping my mouth beyond 72 hours. This situation may end up being like Debby. She seemed like a sure-fire threat, right? I guess that wasn't the case in the end. Of course, every storm has a different timeline. I'd suggest we take this one day by day. If a threat arises to Florida, NHC will mention it. Anything before this is just speculation.

Kevin

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 15 2002 12:34 AM

Hey Anon.......

How about we send you some cheese to go along with all that whining you're doing... hehe

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 15 2002 12:43 AM

Stuart ,fl

Thats bull Stuart , fl gets hit all the time

1871 Aug 25th a 105mph hurricane comes ashore just north while moving NW
1896 bd October cat one
1898 aug 2nd 80mph
1928 august a cat one
1928 1 month later a cat 3
1933 a hurricane from East sept 3rd winds over 125mph heavy damage 75% of roofs blown off population only 5,100 at the time 2 killed citrus loss nearly complete.
1933 in September a Cat 3 almost in the same area
1939 a cat one in august from the Southeast
1949a cat 4 just south on August 26th unofficial gust to 160mph many homes destroyed,52 million in damage here 2 killed,Jenson bch causeway completely wiped out.
1947 broward hit by a cat 4 but this area got heavy winds too by large hurricane
1950 oct 18th hurricane King hits 25 miles to the west with 80mph winds causing heavy bch erosion here
1964 aug 27th hurricane cleo passed as a cat 1 with 85mph winds to the west
1964 Hurricane Isabell hits from the SW with 115mph winds Oct 15 after hitting the west coast
1979 sept 3rd hurricane david hits with 85mph gusts here press 28.71 5 ft tides,minor damage
1999 oct 16th hurricane irene 75mph press 29.12 moving NNE @ 10mph dumps very heavy rain & many trees knocked down.

and thats just a handfull there are a lot more that are not mentiond

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Sep 15 2002 01:03 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Form in the Gulf

guys its a week away go take a brake we will need it i do think it will get to the gulf but this thing is a 1000 miles away we cant get one corect 100 miles away this year these things have been crazy see ya