CFHCAdministrator
()
Thu Sep 19 2002 04:50 PM
Isidore Now A Hurricane

As expected Isidore is now a Category I hurricane, with maximum winds sustained at 75Mph heading towards the west-northwest at 8mph.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

More strengthening is expected and some minor weakening is expected to occur during its track across Cuba. Only God knows what Isidore will do when it re-enters the Gulf of Mexico and puts its crosshairs on a target. Florida west coast to the Keys need to keep a very close eye on it as she enters the Gulf because you will be the closest to it and will have the less amount of time if it decides to make that turn. Others will have a little more time to track it if it decides to head your way. As of now, even the best of the best have no real solid track forecast. Keep watching!

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [john@flhurricane.com]


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 04:59 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

HF,

See my reply on the previous page...



doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 19 2002 04:59 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

to who ever questioned the track of this storm and Donna...the tracks a totally different...Donna was north of the islands of Hispanola and Cuba and made a hard right turn over the keys into SW Florida...Donna was an early Sept. storm..about two weeks earlier than this one, as I recall.

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:01 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

What track after 72 hours will take is the big question now and as for intensitie I fear that it may go to cat 4.All residents from Brownsville to the keys better watch it closely.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:07 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Ok... i am not going to say much about the track of isidore, except i am sticking to my landfall area of Mobile to Pensacola...

Rather, i am going to comment on the intensity. Although in a good environment for strengthening, Isidore really has not strengthened at a great rate. I think that by the time the centre moves over Cuba tomoro we will be looking at a strong C1 Hurricane, with sustained winds about 90 mph. Of course, weakening will occur as the centre moves over land. The circulation, however, is quite large, and Isidore is not that compact a storm. Therefore, providing he does not slow to a crawl while crossing Cuba, expect him to re-emerge into the GOM with winds in the 75 to 80 mph range. Then... strengthening as it meanders over the Gulf waters.

With a large circulation, we may just see Tropical Storm force winds over the extreme southern Keys.

Rich B

StormWarn2000


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:09 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found that the minimum
pressure in Isidore has fallen to 984 mb...and the peak flight-level
winds were 76 kt. The crew also estimated surface winds of 70 kt.
On this basis...the advisory winds are increased to 65 kt...making
Isidore the second hurricane of the season.

Isidore has been basically on track today...and the initial motion
is 300/8. The short-term forecast is unchanged...taking Isidore
over western Cuba in 24 hours. In spite of copious quantities of
dropsondes having been released in the environment of Isidore from
the NOAA gulfstream-iv jet over the past two days...there remains
considerable divergence among the track guidance models beyond 48
hours. Much of this divergence appears to be related to the
forecast development of a cutoff mid- to upper-level low between
Bermuda and the Bahamas. The AVN has the strongest and most
westward version of this low...and the northeasterly flow around the
low may be why this model drives Isidore so strongly southwestward
near the end of the forecast period. For whatever reason...the AVN
ensemble mean does not take Isidore as far to the west as the AVN
control. The UKMET has flipped from its earlier northward
track...and is now in better agreement with the AVN. I remain
unconvinced that this low will be as strong or as west as the AVN is
forecasting. However...given the overall tendency for the guidance
to shift westward...I have nudged the official forecast westward
near 72 hours. The bottom line is that when Isidore gets into the
Gulf...steering currents will become very weak...and it will likely
meander and cause much anxiety for several days.

Now that Isidore has a well-formed core...the pace of
intensification should increase. The outflow pattern is well
established and the size of the cyclone is growing. Four out of
five of the ships rapid intensification predictors are positive.
The only slight negative factor over the next 36 hours will be
interaction with the cuban landmass. It is likely that Isidore will
be a major hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/2100z 20.6n 82.0w 65 kts
12hr VT 20/0600z 21.3n 83.1w 80 kts
24hr VT 20/1800z 22.4n 84.2w 85 kts
36hr VT 21/0600z 23.2n 85.0w 90 kts
48hr VT 21/1800z 23.5n 85.5w 100 kts
72hr VT 22/1800z 24.0n 86.5w 105 kts


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:11 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

even without the wind can you imagine gettin 20 inches of rain???

Gofins13
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:17 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

The TWC said the cold front coming down was strong for Sept. Could it be that this trof will dig deeper than originally expected? Help Jason!! :

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:23 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Hmm is the NHC no longer using all caps ? Thats interesting..

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:23 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

" The bottom line is that when Isidore gets into the Gulf...steering currents will become very weak...and it will likely meander and cause much anxiety for several days. "

Oh joy! More anxiety?!?! Where is Isidore's lawyer? I want to sue!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:27 PM
I am hoping for the AVN Solution

I am hoping the AVN has been right all along and moves this thing away from the US. A major hurricane striking the US would suck, I am hoping for a wsw or westward track away from us..



Kevin
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:30 PM
Anixety!!!

This is what you get when you have a hurricane season that has produced nothing but tropical storms and one weak hurricane up-to-date: a storm that sits in the GOMEX, intensifies and torments the hell out of forecasters everywhere in it's possible path.

Describing the weekend and next week as extremely anxious may be an understatement.

Kevin


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:32 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

jasons gotta do the weather in about 30 minutes so he's not ignoring you. he's good about answering our questions.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:35 PM
Hey Kevin...

Not to get totally off topic here, but shouldn't your tag line read "New Orleans Saints - 2002 NFC South Champions?" After we lay waste to our 3rd successive 2001 playoff team, people will understand why the Saints are now the TEAM TO BEAT in the South - not to mention that it will be nice to own the head to head over both Chicago and Green Bay. Bring on the 49ers! After this week, it's on to Ford Field and the hapless Detroit Lions. That will make us 4-0 and at least 2 games ahead of the Bucs.

Maybe at least you could acknowledge that the Bucs will struggle to even finish 2nd after the much feared Carolina Panthers get a hold of you guys!

Anyway, looking forward to a long night of millions of posts and threads growing at 40-50 per hour until I just can't take it anymore. As it is, I've gone to bed at 1am every night and have been waking up at 5. Such is live during the active period of the hurricane season.

Steve - Who Dat?


Gofins13
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:36 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

I agree andy1tom!!! Hes GREAT!!!!!!!!

Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:37 PM
andy1tom

even without the wind can you imagine gettin 20 inches of rain???

YES! a few years ago, we had Danny in Mobile Bay. 47 inches of rain in the 3 days it stalled in the mouth of Mobile Bay. Winds were nothing, but the rain and flooding was horrible!

Southern


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:42 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

could be faith now comes the rain we need but there will be a price this is going to get ugly here it is ala miss line to destin just my gess ihope this thing dont hang aroumd 6 more days when people get home and here there will be a major storm in the gulf look out there will be no batterys on the gulf coast be safe

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:44 PM
New list of tracks better than UM/Weather Underground...

http://www.hurricanealley.net/10Lpsttrks.html

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:46 PM
Re: I am hoping for the AVN Solution

My only problem with the AVN solution is this question:
Is the AVN just setting us up for some rubber band action? Load the storm up, get some more juice and pow big time hit on US. I just don't see Isidore ending up in Mexico right now. i think he is going to hit the Gulf Coast some way, some how.


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:51 PM
model stuff

a'ite jason, whenever youre off the air: read that page you posted.. id actually seen that before but just glanced over it and forgotten. aside from observing firsthand what those nhc suite models tend to do, any more free info you can come up with would be cool.
i've got a new short term take, which sort of flies in the face of my overall forecast but could still work in: think the center of isidore will cross only the very western tip of cuba, move just south of isle of youth. also think the intensity forecast is 15kt too low at 48-72hr. i didnt like the nogaps forecast yesterday, but since it's quit ramming the storm into the BOC and just stalls it and turns it back north... now it follows what i had in mind, personally think it will be closer to the yucatan and meandering erratically sunday.
two things i think will play into the ultimate path of izzy:
1)whether the disturbance south of mexico starts to develop. it could further confuse the upper pattern in the gulf.
2)upper cutoff forming near bermuda and backtracking.. think this will have a surface reflection that tries to develop and heads for the mid altantic next week.. that ultimately presses against the continental longwave and causes the shortwaves to buckle and amplify upstream.. one of which should finally bring isidore out.
in the meanwhile, izzy will be wandering in the gulf.. maybe quasi stationary late weekend/early next week. thought is that upwelling will not be a big deal since the oceanic heat content runs fairly deep in the gulf.
it would not surprise me if isidore borders on category five before or after some eyewall replacement cycle in a couple of days.
HF 2145z19september


Gofins13
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 05:51 PM
Re: New list of tracks better than UM/Weather Underground...

Great graphic Steve--That says a whole lot!

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:06 PM
Going on the air, but real quick...

More pressure drops....here we go!

008
URNT12 KNHC 192124
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/2124Z
B. 20 DEG 33 MIN N
82 DEG 00 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1244 M
D. 65 KT
E. 150 DEG 05 NM
F. 227 DEG 70 KT
G. 149 DEG 011 NM
H. 982 MB
I. 18 C/ 1550 M
J. 23 C/ 1556 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF966 1210A ISIDORE OB 22
MAX FL WIND 76 KT N QUAD 1940Z.



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:07 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

About those graphics , if you notice about 8 hit florida and 6 landfall elsewhere, and all but one gets turned back towards the ne in the long run, so if izzy slows down and hangs out , this has a very high chance of turning back towards florida in the long run?

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:10 PM
Cuba Radar

Was fishing around and found this http://www.met.inf.cu/radar.asp which seems to be the only Cuban radar I can find. It's annoying to watch but its there none-the-less.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:10 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Actually, whoever said Izzy was moving northward is right. The last few visible shots have him riding the 82N line and is approaching 21N. if this motion continues he may still get east of the Isle of Youth. Now I'm micro-managing...Cheers!!!

Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:14 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Fact: there is a Biker's Convention in Key West this weekend. Someone picked a bad weekend for that event!

Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:14 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Just checked out the radar...Izzy does seem to be moving northward again...

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:20 PM
Re: Anonymous

If this thing stall north of the Yucatan and does nothing but meandering, Florida had better start preparing for a big time diaster. Many storms that stall north of the Yucatan tend to move NE and into the Florida Big Bend area. Gordon did this a couple of years ago. Here in Orlando we didn't get anything horrible but you could definitely tell a tropical system was to our north. Now plug in a larger storm at category 3 or category 4 intensity.

Basically, if Isidore stalls north of the Yucatan there is a very good chance in my mind that Isidore may effect the Big Bend area as a major hurricane.

I am certain a N and NE track will occur, but the question is when it will occur. The upper-level pattern early next week will tell the story, and it may not be a good story at that.

Kevin


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:20 PM
Events planned this weekend.

Get this, on Dauphin Island this weekend is having a kite festival. I wonder.....did they wish for winds?

Southern


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:23 PM
dont get caught on wobbles

youre probably seeing an illusion. between the last two recon fixes the storm has gone .07degree north, .15degree west. pretty close to the 300 heading nhc estimated last advisory. note that the pressure between the first and third in this set of vortex messages, over a 3 1/2 hour period has fallen 5mb. not exactly rapid intensification, but not all that slow either.
south of the isle of youth, just nicking the western tip of cuba... here goes.
HF 2216z19september


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:29 PM
Steve H.

Just to clarify my post earlier: I was not directing that comment at you. :-)

Bruce
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:35 PM
Eye

Can be seen on Key West long range loop.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:35 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Well i guess saturday morning we will find out which turn he will make, west or east , so since we have time is anyone willing to give a gut feeling poll, west miss trough or east trough pickup

joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:38 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

The visible images also caught my eye in another way. The outer bands of clouds to the north and northeast are truely heading out in those directions without any interference. I don't really know what I'm trying to say, but Izzy may be "smoothing" out to NW motion, as the pressure drops he may start pushing off the little annoying things in life that are keeping him more westward? Just a thought.
Joe in Jax


Gofins13
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:42 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

I think the trof will be deeper & stronger--than expected--therefore i believe it will drive it nne, towards the big bend.

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:44 PM
Re: joepub1

I really still see Isidore heading WNW, but this should all change soon. Major hurricanes tend to move more northerly and this one should be no exception. I expect a WNW motion for the next 24-36 hours and a NW motion after that. After 72 hours Isidore may stall, but it is a bit too early to tell.

Kevin


jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:54 PM
Re: Cuba Radar

Thanks for the cuban radar site. Lets if we can crash their server. That radar looks circa 1990 with the graphics but enjoy the radar becasue its the only cuban rader we've got. This system might start a move out of the gulf around tuesday, maybe.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 06:58 PM
radar

try http://www.weather.gov and use the key west long range, it's a bit better then the tin foil rabbit ears that cuba is using. Looks NW on radar.

Rudy


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:01 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

nice cat is that izzy

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:10 PM
Sat Pix

It is very hard at this point to tell exactly where it's going because they must have changed the vectors on the loops...one minute it's there, the next minute it looks as though it jumped a 100 miles north. But...it is STILL east of the Isle of Youth. We shall see.....

meto
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:11 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

its moving mainly north last hour.

jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:13 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Its a badger as in University of Wisconsin Badgers..my alma mater. A badger when cornered gets real nasty..Izzy will be cornered in the Gulf and will be real nasty so maybe the badger is aperfect mascot for Izzy.

meto
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:15 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

colleen do you watch ch.9 orlando they said got a 7 day forecast from nooa that shows him turning back to fla,

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:15 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

so i am starting to think this may be like opal an other storms that occur later in the season around september seem to get in the gulf an head north. at least that is climatolgically speaking. so when the storm cranks up over the weekend in the gulf it heads north Mobile- Pensacola? again like 1995

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:28 PM
HF is right in the last thread,

Board is becoming a wishcasting haven the last few hours. "It's going north." "It's coming my way." Please at least quality those statements with links, backup or knowledge that a particular jog/illusion/whatever talked you into upping your beer stock or whatever.

Steve


Kevin
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:35 PM
Re: HF is right in the last thread

I am absolutely not wishcasting this storm to come into the Florida Panhandle/Big Ben at this time. I believe a landfall in that area is a pretty good possibility because of the very slow to non-existant movement this weekend and early next week, the trough may very well pick Isidore up if he gains more latitude. Climatology also favors anything from a N to NE GOMEX hit. My thoughts will change, I will call it as a I see it.

Kevin


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:35 PM
Re: HF is right in the last thread,

Latest Recon. Still moving just north of west. Pressure falling.
460
URNT12 KNHC 192302
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/2302Z
B. 20 DEG 38 MIN N
82 DEG 14 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1231 M
D. 45 KT
E. 216 DEG 045 NM
F. 306 DEG 64 KT
G. 218 DEG 006 NM
H. 981 MB
I. 19 C/ 1565 M
J. 23 C/ 1560 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF966 1210A ISIDORE OB 28
MAX FL WIND 76 KT N QUAD 1940Z.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:36 PM
YOU CAN SEE THE EYE

You can now see the eye with this radar. Lots of rain squalls moving in on the keys too. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:37 PM
Re: HF is right in the last thread,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html ... shows northern movement

Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:38 PM
Re: YOU CAN SEE THE EYE

very nice

Gofins13
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:44 PM
Re: HF is right in the last thread,

Give Me A break----Please!!!! Its easy to say things--when you wont identify your self!!

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:46 PM
Re: HF is right in the last thread,

Isidore continues to deepen now 991mb.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:46 PM
MARINE WARNING

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
FLORIDA BAY
GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM

* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT

* AT 710 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WATERS APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS OVER THE KEYS AND MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA BAY AND GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE KEYS...AS WELL AS THE GULF WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:53 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

looks nice moving west on that radar getting stronger ihope this is not andrew all over meaning winds your right weather pat this time of yrar north east gulf coast is a good bet if i had to bet i pray not anywhere sometimes the saying be carful what you wish for might come true

ShawnS
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:53 PM
Re: HF is right in the last thread

I just want to throw out one comment here. I'm not going to try and predict a landfall,however, I do want to know why people are not throwing out the possibility that NONE of these troughs pick Izzy up. Think about it; when all this started the first trough was forecasted to grab him. The next thing you know, that was thrown out and then the second trough was predicted to most certainly pick him up. Now, it is being said that the second will miss him and it will be a third one that will do the job. How far out and how many times will it be said that the next one will get him? How about the possibility that Mr. Izzy just doesn't want to do the "normal" thing. Maybe he doesn't care about all the climatology stuff. It's like sometimes these things have a mind of their own. That's how we end up with Andrews and Allisons. Once in a while you get one with a major attitude that is worse than mine(ha,ha,ha). They don't always follow what climatology says they should do. That being said, I don't have any freaking idea where he will end up, but I will still stick with my western gulf proble. I just don't know where in the western gulf.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:53 PM
Kevin...

You ought to know I wasn't talking to you. You back up everything with reason. Even though you're a youn'un, you've known me for probably 2 years. I don't recall ever being critical of anything you posted.

Just the same, I not referring to anyone who actually posts with an alias or tag. Hey, it's not my board anyway. But there is a certain expectation that if someone isn't asking a question but instead making a statement without any backup, I want to call them on it. Maybe it's just a high expectation, but after 3 seasons on CFHC, it's got a standard to live up to.

Hey, I'm more wrong than anyone, but I try to get my 2 cents out there with some reason. Look at Rick in Mobile for instance. He's hillarious. Obviously not every wave is going to turn into a Category 5 and hit Mobile, but at least he's got the kahoonies to give us a name and point of reference.

Anyway, I'm getting off my soapbox which is made out of cards to begin with. I'm looking forward to the 8pm to see what our fearless leaders have to say.

Steve


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:54 PM
HERE HE COMES

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS ISLAND LOCATIONS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL COME NORTH INTO THE LOWER KEYS AROUND 8 PM...
AND QUICKLY PASS OVER ALL THE LOWER KEYS AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS BEFORE 9 PM...INCLUDING KEY WEST...BIG PINE KEY...THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND MARATHON.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS...PLAN FOR LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 4OTO 50 MPH MAINLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BRIEF SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE PAST THE AREA BY 9 PM. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS THAT MIGHT BLOW. DRIVERS...BE
ALERT FOR EFFECTS OF THESE CROSS WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:57 PM
Hey gofins13...

If that was to me, I signed off at the bottom. I'm not logged in right now. I always try to own up for my posts.

Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 07:58 PM
Re: HF is right in the last thread,

Go to another forum if you dont like , the so called wishcasters, or other peoples opinions, i like to read everyones opinions, and comments about these storms , so thank you and have a nice day

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:00 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

its ok with me izzy if you go see shawn

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:08 PM
Hey Shawn...

I think the only remote possibility it becomes a western Gulf storm - one with an appreciable effect on Texas anyway - is if it comes at you guys from the South. I don't see a wnw track into Texas in the cards. Here's why: There's a big pool of cold air spilling down from Canada that's going to make it into the southern plains in the next couple of days. Unless Isidore can somehow come underneath the second trof and around the backside of the 3rd - not likely with a SW flow in front of the 2nd - it's not going to be able to bust through. However, if it was to stick around the YP for a few days as some of the models have hinted, and then stalled out off the Mexican Coast (which also doesn't look too likely), it would have to begin that northward trek at some point. Right now, I'd have to go with a < 10% chance of TX landfall. Ultimately, if Izzy has its sights set on the US, it would probably be east of here. I went with MS once I got in the game, but if I had to lay $$$ on it, I'd bet somewhere east of there.

Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:12 PM
Re: HF is right in the last thread,

Shawn, it is entirely possible that Izzy could end up in the west GOM. If the AVN solution is realized a pressing ridge building down from Montana could force him westward. It's still not October and storms certainly go west to that portion of the GOM. But since it's currently in the area near Cuba and the Keys, the people here are getting excited. I don't dispute that landfall could happen in the western GOM. It is one of the scenarios that should be considered. Unfortunately, the models that take it W or SW don't go out that far to show the end result on the coast. Right now the SE GOM meandering seems likely. We have time to watch as the storm moves in another direction. BTW, Izzy was moving north for a bit, more like a stairstep, but near due north just the same. Now he is back to 300degrees. Cheers!! Steve H.

ShawnS
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:12 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

I'm only saying that there are other options other than the obvious. I'm kind of a loner in a way. I like to pay more attention to the "underdogs" and try and figure out how they can pull off the upset, to put it in sports terms. I hate always going with the favorite. It's too easy. That's why alot of times I seem off the wall with my comments.Sometimes I'm right; alot of times I'm wrong. The bottom line is that I look at EVERY possibility and not just the ones that the models are throwing out, because as we know, the models are not always right,either.

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:16 PM
Re: Hey Shawn...

Steve,
I didn't really think that you were talking to me at all, but I was just checking. I don't want to be viewed as a wishcaster, I forecast my scenarios based ont the way I see things. This is why I always back my stuff up with reasoning.

Also Steve, I'm betting on NE GOMEX at this time. There is considerable doubt, but only the latitude would have verify from the NHC forecast for Isidore to be picked up. Western GOMEX isn't a good bet at this point.

Kevin


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:18 PM
Hey Nick...

Last post on decorum from me. I'm not going anywhere. I've been here for 3 years and earned my status as probably the only +200 poster on the site since the format change. Since more than half the time I'm not even logged in, I don't even have the right status.

Don't get me wrong. I like reading everyone's opinions too, but post a link, name, idea or something if you're making a call. If you think a storm is going west or north or east or whatever, at least you can say why. I don't think that's too much to ask. If you or me or whoever is wrong because there's a sat jump or something, the pros will correct us. I don't think that's too much to ask. The hosts give us the ability to post anonymously. The least we can do (when we're posting anonymously) is to put a little backup don't you think? That's what makes this board so much better than evrerything else on the weather web (including GOPBI and TWC). We've got the killers: Glen, Jason Kelly, Ed, HF, cycloneye - all kinds of gurus. The least we can offer is a little quality.

That's it for me on my anti-wishcast posts for the season. If anyone wants to discuss, PM me. Gotta go check the 8 update!

Steve (will be logged in next time).


troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:19 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

this link illustrates what Steve was saying about a jump north

yuu can block that last fram where the image is viewed "closer in" to not get that skip look to it. Or just go fram by frame manually.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

troy


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:19 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Just to slightly change the tone, looking at the infrared and Key West rader side-by-side, I will say the eye is right smack in the center of the heavy convection. Very well developed Cat1, don't you think?
Western Cuba would not be a very nice place to be for the next couple of days........
Joe in Jax


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:22 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

I think the AVN is a good solution as any of the others right now. However, The AVN only goes so far. It seems that the most likely event is that Izzy will eventually get far enough north to catch one of these troughs. There seems to be a pattern of pretty deep troughs digging south right now. Most likely, one of these will grab Izzy and redirect him NE at some time into Florida or the Central GOM. In the long term, I don't think that sliding into Mexico or Southwest Texas is a very likely event for Izzy's finale.

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:23 PM
18z GFDL is....

...interesting, to say the least...and a good compromise from the various opinions floating around...check it out...

http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002091918-isidore10l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:24 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Well Isidore's gonna knock Havana a littel then head into the Gulf. Potential for worst case is there, but I'm hoping against it. I'm watching it.

joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:29 PM
Re: 18z GFDL is....

Well, we know it's just a model. But it did shift back to the east a little(again ). It's got a little bit of everything for everybody to chew on, in fact! Really screaming along at the end. Think it will be in that much of a hurry?

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:34 PM
Back in full effect - logged in though :)

Here are today's official coordinates (starting late last night).

03 GMT 09/19/02 19.7N 79.5W
09 GMT 09/19/02 20.0N 80.8W
15 GMT 09/19/02 20.0N 81.2W
21 GMT 09/19/02 20.6N 82.0W
8 pm ET 09/19/02 20.7N 82.3W

Hope I didn't tick anyone off - wasn't my intent. So as of today, we're now at 1 degree further north and 2.8 degrees further west. Overall, that's west of WNW. I looked at the Goes 8 and saw (excluding the sat jump) what gave it that "north" looking jog. Apparently the coldest cloud tops were rotating around a bit asymetrical there for a time and the bulk of them rotated to the north side of the storm. Then they moved a bit more around the west side and kind of evened out again. If you go to the Goes 8, you can see the general WNW movement over the last 30 frames. For instance, late this afternoon, the CDO was taking aim at Isle of Youth (S of Cuba). It's been nudging toward it ever since. The entire envelope is pushing WNW with time.

Btw, credit goes to the good people who post here. I may have never learned of the IR tricks that screw up night vision if I hadn't happend upon CFHC. To me, Radar is the best tool, and visible satelites are 2nd. The IR Shortwave works good at nighttime if there is an exposed center.

It's all good. Saints rule!

Steve



Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:34 PM
Re: 18z GFDL is....

That run of the GFDL is in line with my thinking. Maybe a little further west first. Not a prospect I really want to see happen.

Bruce
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:38 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

He seems to be just about stationary from looking at the Key West radar loop. Is the low to the west of him the reason why the trough will not pick him up? The trough is way down to the Texas/Mexico border. My first thinking was the low to his west would have pushed him north, then the trough would have picked him up.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:41 PM
Jason....18Z GFDL

notice the different flavor of the GFDL. It takes him NW, then back toward the Yucatan in a full Loop. Then to the NNE coming in the Big Bend of Fl. REalize that any deviation of this by a dgree or two could put this in Sarasota or tallahassee. But what a difference in the approach from the 12Z!! Means that the 1st trough misses and the second trough lifts hin NNE as the trough lifts towards the great lakes. BTW, the sortwave is digging pretty far south firing off t'storms near the Mexican east coast. If the ULL over the BOC fills quickly, the trough will blow thru the GOM. Cheers!! Steve H.

Bruce
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:45 PM
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL

Steve, so the ULL is holding back the trough? Why is this ULL not moving him North?

Gofins13
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:48 PM
Re: 18z GFDL is....

Yes,That is intresting! The GFDL has been pretty consistent!

joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:54 PM
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL

The LBAR seems to be going the same route as the 18Z GFDL, with the BAMD, BAMM, and A98E all stalling, looping, or at least doing something else with it.

troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:55 PM
Question for Jason K

What affect will the moon phasing toward full coupled with Fall equinox on the 23rd have on the tides. Especially for Cuba? Just wondering for a learning standpoint
thanks
Troy



wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:03 PM
Re: Question for Jason K

Gotta be honest here...I have no idea...

But I will dig around and see if I can find an answer...



meto
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:03 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

has anyone heard about a stall out, then get pushed to fla.

tom5r
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:06 PM
Re: Question for Jason K

It's getting kinda windy in the Islamorada area now, which is slightly north of the middle keys. There's a beautiful full moon shining to my east but some pretty massive clouds coming in with more impressive ones to the south. Key West radar is showing many small storms heading from the southeast, crossing the keys and slightly arcing to the southwest after reaching the gulf.

HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:12 PM
guru.. gwaha...

couple things id like to comment on:
i just got called a guru. its sort of funny to me, a guy who didnt make it in the fsu meteorology program (or at least quit while he was ahead). there was no way i'd get finished with that in four years, and didnt want to take calc 2 for a third time either.. so just skipped out. but, i know of a few people who didnt jump ship, the few and proud survivors.. what i have in enthusiasm doesnt make up for what they have in education and determination. maybe this site draws the best tropical weather discussion on the web (never have bothered with anywhere else), but we're mostly amateurs.. with degree holding exceptions like dunham(experience in mlb), kelley(generous with the knowledge in pc), and scottsvb(tampa, who apparently made it through the terrors of fsu's meteorology program, many props for that). just want that in perspective.. might be a big fish, but its a relatively small pond... the professional met. world has some very provocative and superior minds.. for hurricane forecasting names like john hope, william gray.. hey, i'd throw bastardi up there too. he's a great source. there are also those guys at the nhc this year who have made the discussions sound less like canned spam and more interesting to read.
second.. shawn, youre making noise again in self defense. hey man, we're not knocking you when we disagree, not saying that you couldnt be right.. just that we dont think you are. western gulf solution needs an initially weaker system and stronger upper low backing in from the east.. that kind of retrogression seems unlikely with the longwave pattern locking over the states. most probable event is that the storm meanders until one of these shortwaves finally draws it up, sometime next week. as a whole i'd say the chances this system gets west of 90w are about 20%, and west of 92w about 5%.. and if then it should be nosediving into the BOC. shawn really, the chances it hits texas to me are about as slim as it never making it into the gulf. thats why im discounting your ideas. not because im being mean or closed minded.
third.. jason k, if you answered, then i missed it: any more pointers on those nhc suite models? im about to lose bastardi as a primary source of thought provoking discussion, so have to come up w/ some other folks to turn to when i need guidance.
okay, another gargantuan post. maybe i should make lots of small ones instead and boost my user rating? nahh.. not the way i want to carry a rep here. just as another guy trying to get this stuff down.
HF 0105z20september


Rad
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:15 PM
IS IT OR ISIDORE ??

Well is it or.......... ISIDORE, that is the question. Lemme tell ya people I am getting nervous, BUT I AM READY , please get prepared for the UNEXPECTED!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:21 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

I've got bad feelings about Isidore. That cold front isn't going to make it very far south according to the climate models, and that would have steered her our way here on the west central florida coast. Now it seems her course will carry her towards the texas or louisiana coast. Their wide continental shelf and shallow water make even small storm surges very destructive. It actually would be better for her to hit us in florida, as odd as it sounds, since the nastiest side of the storm would largely blow the water OFFSHORE. But a frontal assault on let's say, new orleans, even from a cat 1 isidore would be horrifiying. Imagine if she strengthens to cat 3 in the warm water and calm air of the gulf. Woe to the insurance companies, and woe to those who love an ocean view. She's a hell of a way to break a drought.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:26 PM
LOL..

Maybe 'guru' was too strong but you never miss any possibility HF. Everyone would give you that. And me? Not that you were implying, but I never earned a user rating based on one liners that's for sure. As you know, I'll take my lumps with my luck.

And before anyone forgets the quixotic Steve vs. "bigtime Gurus" battle, Isidore is another notch against 2 of the Big 3 - 1) Dr. Gary Gray's east of NC season; 2) Dr. Bill Gray's 8 storm season. I might even get the hat trick with 3 for calling out Joe "the Animal" Bastardi on his 1/1.5 Buras to Appalachacola landfall scheme since I think Isidore ends up there when it's all said and done.

Steve


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:28 PM
Re: guru.. gwaha...

HF, you do a great job....don't sell yourself short.

Now, the tropical suite...

The Bam's a are Beta advection models...which mean that they take the trajectory forecast from the AVN and derive the storm motion from there...the difference in the three are that they use layer means...the shallow is 850-700, the middle is 850-500, and the Deep is 850-250 (working from memory, but I think that is right....)...the Bams work best when the storm is influenced by the ambient flow, and not the other way around.

LBAR, the limited barotropic, is just that, a limited domain barotropic (dynamic) modal...it is a movable mesh on a storm centered domain...most useful when there aren't strong external forces outside the mesh of the model grid that are influencing storm motion....also, LBAR is 2 dimensional...which doesn't really account for upper level dynamic changes...

I find these models most useful in verifiying the output of other model data, and not as "primary" data, so to speak...I wouldn't bas e a forecast on them, but would use it to confirm what other data is telling me....

OK....there is a start...anything specific you want to ask me?



troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:33 PM
Jason I found info on tides

The month is famous for the "harvest moon", the name given for the full moon nearest the autumnal equinox. It provided the extended light that extended harvest activities after sunset. The full moon near the equinox is also a period with high seasonal tides. If a landfalling hurricane or coastal storm happens at these times, coastal flooding can be greatly enhanced. The Great New England Hurricane of September 21, 1938 came at this unfortunate time.
http://www.intellicast.com/Almanac/Northeast/September/

not sure how that will effect Cuba or possibly points further north and yes shawn points west even
because it was the North East Almanac.

Anyway, sucks to be in Cuba


Troy


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:36 PM
Re: Jason I found info on tides

Heck, on a good day it sucks to be in Cuba!!!



usufruct
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:38 PM
Historical tracks

In looking at the historical tracks (Hurricane Alley site) I note that not one storm has passed near Isidore's location into the Gulf and then made a hard right turn into the Florida peninsula. One did curve northeastward and crossed the upper peninsula, but all the others headed into the central Gulf coast. If climo is any indication, peninsula Florida may be in the clear.
Robin Lauriault
Melrose


Dana
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:39 PM
Re: guru.. gwaha...

What him say???

joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:45 PM
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL

Bruce, I have no exper. in these matters, but maybe I can be of some help. Today in Jax we get rain, from the north! First time in months its come from that direction. We must have a real small slice of high pressure right on top of us, because our 'summer' rain comes from the west and south. First signs of our weather pattern begining to change toward the fall. That's why I wouldn't discount Izzy shooting off toward the NE at some time. Hope that helps.

troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:46 PM
Re: guru.. gwaha...

Jason
gonna hit ya up with another question.
How long before a ground swell from Izzy hits your area- if at all. I remember when Mitch was way down south a pretty decent swell squeaked between Cuba and the Yucitan and the waved were at least 8' up in your area.

Surfed Pensacola Beach well before he made his move north. The only time I ever drove 8+ hours just to surf!

Troy (still waiting for a cat 3 to sit around Bermuda for a few days and throw us a big swell)


usufruct
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:46 PM
Re: Jason I found info on tides

Jason, I don't want to turn this hurricane site into a political forum, but you made the first move. I have been travelling to Cuba for years and I can assure you that you are mistaken regarding your impression of Cuba. You should go there and see for yourself. It is a marvelous, vibrant country with some problems (largely caused by US right wingers), but with some very positive aspects as well. Open your eyes, my friend.
Robin Lauriault


Bruce
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:48 PM
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL

Thanks

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:49 PM
Re: guru.. gwaha...

I figure about a day or two after the passage into the gulf...We should see some pretty good swell by Sunday, I'd think.



StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:51 PM
Re: guru.. gwaha...

Him say most models full of hooey.

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:52 PM
Re: Jason I found info on tides

You are correct...it was a tongue in cheek statement, and I would LOVE to visit Cuba sometime...I have a grandfather who visited there in the 50's and has good memories of his visit. I hear it is a lovely country...I guess I am one of those US right-wingers you speak of, but I was wrong in my blanket assessment (although I disagree with you politically...reasonable people can disagree!).

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:54 PM
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL

I'm sorry!! I didn't realize that a communist regime which represses it's citizens was a puppet government created by the U.S. right wingers. Wow I can learn so much on this sight!!! Come on
Keith


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 09:57 PM
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL

Ok, I don't think we need to continue the political discussion. Let's get back to whether Izzy visits Shawn's backyard as a Cat 4 or 5.

usufruct
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:00 PM
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL

No, perhaps I didn't explain my views properly. The Cuban government was not created by US right wingers, it has been harrassed by US right wingers, which harrassment has caused some problems for the Cuban economy, particularly since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, they are coping fairly well. Now let's drop this topic and talk about Isadore.
Robin


bsnyder
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:02 PM
Re: Jason I found info on tides

On the GFDL animation site you linked to, what do the green and blue shadings signify?

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but I'm a real novice!


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:04 PM
Re: Jason I found info on tides

Not stupid at all...
The light green is areas of depression force winds, the blue is TS force winds...

There is a scale on the left side...



Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:07 PM
my take tonight

For what its worth my thoughts on Izzy tonight is that once it crosses Cuba, it will continue on basically whatever track mode its has been in up to that point, provided the system is moving at least 10 mph.... rationale is that this is a big storm with plenty of inertia, and nothing in the area to really stop it from progressing in its general direction... no big blocking high any where to be seen in the immediate future... if the trough stalls, and opens up a path for the system, the strong southerly flow will influence the system northward... this is basically what happened with Camille... with one exception... Camille was supposed to hit the Florida panhandle and not the MS coast... we were told all day that the system was going to go off to the NNE or NE... never did, and the rest is history...

If this comes to fruition, and another added factor to my rationale, there is a really good southerly flow out of the GOM tonight into the northern Gulf Coast and this should prevail for the next several days... this is going to influence the system to continue on a basically northward trajectory.... also the ULL off to the west might also influence the northerly track. Now where it will ultimately end up I really can't say, but I would not rule out anything from New Orleans to Panama City.... best guest AL/Fl line... another factor in my forecast is its logical from a climatological perspective..

Once thing I vividly remember about Camille is the really strong southerly wind flow we had consistenly for three days prior to impacting the MS coast...

I don't buy the GFDL at all even though it been rather consistant of late, I just don't think its going to loop... looking at the recent IR loop the system continues to track along on a steady path from wnw to nw...

There have been some outstanding post over the past 24 hours, it has taken me about an hour to read them all, congratulations to everyonel for the outstanding job...

and there is nothing wrong with wishcasting, just remember sometimes you get what you wish for... as for me... I just hope it goes off to the east of MS... our shore line is just too shallow to deal with tides 12-15 feet, which could be expected with a strong CAT 3... my house is 20 feet above sea level and I'm right on the beach in Biloxi...

I said for the past day or so it would be in the western panhandle, and I'm still sticking with it... if I'm wrong I can eat crow with the best of em...


Robert
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:07 PM
Troy2

Troy im in the same boat as you are waiting for the cat3 in bermuda, But i gota say if you didnt surf gustav you missed out man it was last tuesday. we 6-9 footers rolling in to the stuart area with an off shore wind. I surfed walton rocks. there were perfect lines and gaping barrels i saw my friend inside one it was sweet. Sweet up into the point i got sucked over the lip broke my board in half with my face and got pounded into the reef below. It was sick kinda like north shore, stuff you dont see in florida.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:11 PM
The Cuban thing...

My Maclenny niece and nephew got to go to Cuba with their dad 2 summers ago (12 and 6 then). Though they're half Cuban and grew up in Florida (Lockport now), they don't speak a lick of Spanish. They got to see a different way of life that they had to feel through since they couldn't read or speak it. Bucket showers. Old American cars. All of that. They enjoyed the experience, but were none too sad to get back home to NE Florida.

If there is something good to say about Cuba besides that I love Spanish people and Cubans it's that Cuba has been able to acheive a greater than 98% literacy rate - though I'm sure over half of what they learn is indoctrination . In Louisiana, it would probably be a good thing if 50% of the college students were actually literate .

segweigh (sp) - You hate to see any poor countries get hit by natural disasters. Jamaica and Isle of Youth have gotten clobbered but truly are lucky Isadore was only developing and not a Mitch. Props out to everyone reading this in the Islands. Good luck to everyone in Cuba for the next couple of days too!

Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:16 PM
relax, if U are not a Mobilian

okay ya'll...cut and paste my posts...either rickoshade or rick in mobile.....all the same...this thing is gonna do what I said....stay on a wnw track...stall in the southern gulf...and smack us with a cat 4-5....(Mobile)

this is NOT wishcasting...the second front will catch it and spin it north...

however...SHAWN...there is a chance it will HIT U....

the same chance that has any team beating ALABAMA....

now, on the serious side...

cat 2 tonight..

cat 3 hitting fidel...playing his fiddle...

cat 3 in the southern gulf....sorta catching it's breath...and waiting for front #2...

then off to the races, with fresh warm water, nice winds aloft....smacking dear ol Mobile with cat 4-5 winds...

ya know...many have talked about supercanes....this may be the one...yeah, that's the ticket...a category 6!

zzzzzzz


troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:19 PM
Re: The Cuban thing...

Robert

Surfed Monday, Tuesday and even that wedesday in between classes. Had 2 exams that Tuesday so only gotto surf one measley hour at Patrick AFB. A swell from about Bermuda is at the perfect angle for Brevard and I would guess your area. Ever hit Reef RD?

Troy


Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:19 PM
Re: The Cuban thing...

Speaking of Cuba,
I just heard a local news report that the NHC will be allowed to fly USAF Recon. planes in their air space. Evidently this is done on a case by case basis. I imagine this would be a good case.


bsnyder
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:19 PM
Re: Thanks Jason

I had the window shoved all the way to the right....never saw that scale on the left. I think I need to get a bigger monitor!

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:23 PM
Hey Rick

My memory is going bad... didn't OU just beat the Tide... hmmmm .... next up for another Tide lost... USM Golden Eagles... but look at it this way Rick... yall can count it as a Bowl game... hehe

I've been saying all season that I though New Orleans was more due for a major storm than anyone else along the northern Gulf Coast... Boy if Izzy hit there it would make my season... nothing personal Steve... but would like have a long term forcast right once in a while...


usufruct
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:24 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Well I suppose they're going to be picking up alot of grapefruit off the ground on the Isle of Youth in the next few days and rushing it to the juice plant. An average size grapefruit tree can bear over half a ton of fruit, so an 80 mph breeze can turn a tree into a broken down bush.
As to Isadore's course, Bastardi said that big storms do what big storms are supposed to do - head north, and Frank's recent post substantiates that thought. If I lived between Appalachacola and Pass Christian I would be seriously contemplating a visit to Aunt Margaret's in Birmingham about now.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:25 PM
Re: Troy2

i agree totally with troy but i live in the panhandle in pensacola an never expirenced a hurricane. but i think u have a very good point hopefully wont be another camille though keep up the good work

clyde w.
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:26 PM
Re: my take tonight

It seems like the forecast over the next 48-72 hours is one of persistence. Will Izzy continue to head WMN-NW. The general consensus is yes, he will. I think the key moment for everyone along the Gulf coast is about 60 hours from now, give or take.

At that point, does he stall, or does his inertia carry him on that path? Is he tugged N or NE by one of the approaching troughs, or does the AVN validate and he moves WSW? It seems to me that right around the 60 hour mark, these questions are gonna start being answered one after another. Right now, and I have no compelling reason to believe this, but something about the latest GFDL run has me thinking it may be on to something. Maybe it's just the PC way that it is now incorporating all the options

Anyway, I doubt if we'll see anything new in the 11 update other than an extension of the current forecast track...persistence.


Rad
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:30 PM
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL

AGREE STORMHOUND ..................... ANYBODY EVER BEEN TO IRAQ..? I FLEW HALF WAY AROUND THE WORLD JUST TO SMOKE A CAMEL................... BACK TO BAGHDAD .

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:34 PM
Doesn't have to be a Camille gang

and it won't but guess what... a strong Cat 3 is going to do tremendous amount of damage, especially if it hits in shallow coastal areas and people will probably die.... so if this thing comes in as a CAT 3... it is not going to be good... where ever it goes.... now if it gets to CAT 4... geesh... I don't even want to think of that...

JustMe
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:36 PM
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL

Thanks for the chat today.
I enjoyed all that I learned.
Hurricanes have always been a challange and will always continue to be..
Maybe the weather left in God's hands is all we need.

Goodnight and thanks again

Sue


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:39 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

COLLEEN I WAS POSTING DIFFERENT SENERIOS THAT ISADORE COULD TAKE IN THE PAST THREAD. I DIDNT SAY BROWNSVILLE WOULD BE HIT, I SAID SOUTH OF THERE NEAR TAMPICO BUT I GAVE OTHER REASONS HOW IT COULD MOVE NNE BY THE 2ND TROUGH. I DEFIDENTLY NOT GIVING A OFFICAL FORCAST FOR SOMETHING 6 DAYS OUT. I WOULD BE OUT OF A JOB ,.LOL. SCOTTSVB

clyde w.
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:41 PM
Re: Doesn't have to be a Camille gang

Just saw TWC's weekly planner. They seemed to be leaning toward a FL Panhandle strike--based on their forecast on Tuesday of Rain/Wind for that area...but Paul Goodloe repeatedly said stay tuned as it wasn't set in stone.

On a side note, I can guarantee without question that if Izzy threatens Central Florida at any point, that just before my power goes out TWC will be showing that damn show "Atmospheres"!!


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:42 PM
Last couple of things before the update comes in - gotta go play some Halo!

troy2 - great article find on the harvest moon. Next full moon is Saturday - SEPT. 21 13 59 (Noon?). It provides for an interesitng phenomina since Saturday will be the full moon, about the equinox and a Cat 3 storm. Hmmm.

Frank P - Great post as always. Thank you too.

Rick - I drank to your post. LMAO as always.

Steve


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:47 PM
Re: Doesn't have to be a Camille gang

the reason why that happens though is a lot of people have never been through a bad one. Last weekend a good example. we had t/s warnings. i took the boat out, picked up loose items (had can goods and water since june) and nothing happened. am i upset.. Heck no.. glad nothing happened. but the new comers think well thats all there is to it. the next on comes through and they think they are seasoned veterens. then when things turn to @#$% in a handbag its to late. NEVER underestatment these babies. it is always better to error on the side of good judgement.

Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:50 PM
Re: Doesn't have to be a Camille gang

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2002



the last fix from an Air Force plane near 2300 UTC reported a
minimum pressure of 981 mb. On its way home...a dropsonde launched
from the plane reported winds above the surface ranging from 90 to
95 knots. Since then... satellite images have indicated that Isidore
has become stronger as indicated by Dvorak T-numbers which have
increased to 4.5 and 5.0. Initial intensity is adjusted to 75 knots
at this time with an estimated pressure of 979 mb. The next plane
will be in the area at 0600 UTC.
All parameters appear to be favorable for strengthening. Isidore is
becoming a large cyclone with an expansive outflow...feeder bands
and is moving over the higher upper-oceanic heat content of The
Basin. In addition...SHIPS model indicates that 4 of 5 required
parameters for rapid intensification are met. Therefore...Isidore is
forecast to become a major hurricane in the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico.
A hint of the eye can be observed from both Havana and Key West
radars. These observations combined with satellite fixes give an
initial motion of 305 degrees at 7 knots...which is basically the
same as 6 hours ago. No change in track is expected for the next 48
hours and Isidore will be spending Friday crossing the westernmost
portion of Cuba. Thereafter...the forecast track becomes highly
uncertain. Global models slow the system down to a halt in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico as steering currents collapse due to the
passage of a mid-level trough to the north. At longer range...all
models move the hurricane on a general northward track except the
NCEP Global Model. The latter moves the hurricane southwestward
toward the Bay of Campeche. This solution is probably due to a
strong low which the model develops just north of the Bahamas. It is
tempting to go with the NCEP model solution since this model has
been very reliable. But for now...it is better to keep the hurricane
with a northwestward drift beyond 48 hours until the steering
pattern becomes more clear.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/0300z 21.0n 82.5w 75 kts
12hr VT 20/1200z 21.7n 83.5w 85 kts
24hr VT 21/0000z 22.5n 84.5w 95 kts
36hr VT 21/1200z 23.0n 85.5w 100 kts
48hr VT 22/0000z 23.5n 86.5w 105 kts
72hr VT 23/0000z 24.0n 87.0w 105 kts




Hmmmmm......


Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:52 PM
Lights in the sky during Hurricanes

Anyone,
What are the aqua-blue flashes/lights in the sky during a hurricane? During Hurricane Andrew I noticed frequent flashes of aqua-blue...thought it was lightening but no bolts or anything...Anyhow, whoever gets this storm...look for those lights they are amazing and eerie at the same time.


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:52 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Looking at Key West radar makes me think Isle of Youth may take direct hit on SW corner, which leaves rest of island in NE quad. Yuck! May not be a great night to be in Keys either, big batch of storms seems to be holding together with their name on it. Best of luck to people in all those areas, lay low, and keep dry. These things can really scare the wits out of you esp. at night.
Joe in Jax

The Jags can't lose this weekend.......because it's bye week.
Gators on the other hand, well it could be bye week for them too


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:53 PM
Cat 2 by morning? maybe?

Its already up to 85mph with 979mb pressure....I'm thinking if this next recon doesn't find cat 2 strength winds then we'll at least have them by morning. Isle of Youth looks like its gonna get pounded. Beautiful eye showing on the Key West long range radar. But then again, I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder as I'm sure the folks on the Isle of Youth think its pretty ugly.

meto
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:54 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

this hurricane could very well strike the west central coast of florida, after it stalls north of cuba for a couple of days. as a strong cat, 3 hurricane or a 4.

andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:55 PM
gators

yep bye-bye zook... did steve know something???

troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:56 PM
Re: Doesn't have to be a Camille gang

In reply to:

i agree totally with troy but i live in the panhandle in pensacola an never expirenced a hurricane. but i think u have a very good point hopefully wont be another camille though keep up the good work



Hope it didnt sound like I wanted you guys up there to get blasted by it.
Was merely speaking of a long period swell hittin the beaches up there. Because of the wind direction, fetch etc., the coast there would receive the swell much better than the FL west coast.
Mitch was such an intense storm that a big swell made it up from off Honduras through the channel and onto the beaches of Pensacola.

here is a link for projected swell form Izzy
http://www.surfinfo.com/html/fnmoc.html



Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 10:59 PM
Re: Lights in the sky during Hurricanes

Anyone,
What are the aqua-blue flashes/lights in the sky during a hurricane? During Hurricane Andrew I noticed frequent flashes of aqua-blue...thought it was lightening but no bolts or anything...Anyhow, whoever gets this storm...look for those lights they are amazing and eerie at the same time.

Does anyone know what I am talking about?


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:03 PM
Re: Lights in the sky during Hurricanes

I see that all the time with night storms... what I know for a fact is that when electrical power transformers on power poles blow up during the storm they make some spectular light shows... blue was one of the dominant color from the several that I have experienced through many hurricanes..... but I'm not sure if that's what you're referring to...

Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:06 PM
Re: Lights in the sky during Hurricanes

I imagine it is a combination of both...for me it was facinating to watch the flashes and then see the clouds swirling by above.

Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:08 PM
Re: Lights in the sky during Hurricanes

When the effects of Floyd hit E Central Florida, all night long we kept seeing the same "aqua-blue effect" you were talking about. I also didn't know what it was until the transformer in my neighbors yard blew. What a beautiful yet irritating light it put off. Irritating, because we didn't have power for almost 5 days. But that's my best guess for what that light is. You can see transformers blow from a ways away. Hope that helps.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:10 PM
ScottSVB

Oh yeah, sorry about that Scott. I told you that I was confused by your forecast, didn't I? I guess I just couldn't pull all the information out of it, analyze it and actually figure it out.

BTW....I would also hate to see you out of a job if you forecasted that anyone was out-of-the woods. Where do you work anyway? Are you on TV? NWS Ruskin? Airport? Inquiring minds wanna know.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:21 PM
Steve.. probablities inching up for NO

Latest probability product from the NHC shows NO with an increase from 3 to 6. Buras also went up from 4 to 7 and Gulfport went from 3 to 5... Apalachicola stayed at 5, PC went from 4 to 5. and Mobile went from 2 to 4... GOM 28 89 went up from 9 to 12... overall the NO and surrounding area went up basically 3% while the panhandle basically stayed the same and the west coast of FL went down a tad...

Maybe not all that significant but certainly some food for thought.

Now I know Jason doesn't like this product that much but to me is certainly something that you can factor in making your overall assessment and forecast... Let me tell you this, if I get a 99% probablilty rating I'm taking it serious.. hehe


Dana
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:25 PM
Naples T.V.

Thats a first. All three main channels here are showing evacuation routes. Has the myoptic view of "It'll never happen here" changed? Intresting.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:25 PM
Hey Colleen

the straw that stirs the pot... hehe

Hey, I wanna know too....


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:29 PM
Re: Naples T.V.

Dana, you get a Cat 3 storm in the GOM not all that far from the Fl west coast and models are clueless to where this thing is going... I think it pretty smart and logical... can never be prepared enough in my opinion... if I was in west fl I 'd watch this thing like a hawk.... regardless of what everone else is saying...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:33 PM
Re: Steve.. probablities inching up for NO

Probabilities usually go up when a storm is advancing towards an area. It means nothing, unless it states >50%.. With the storm heading wnw they also have to extend the probablities westerly. You can see that Miami, Fort Pierce and even points further north on the east coast of florida are covered... The NHC is covering their bases, as the models always mishandle Gulf Storms.. Especially gulf storms this time of the year... The Gulf always is a problem for the NHC and also for the models, so I wouldnt put much stock into either at this point.. Just take a wait and see attitude, and hope the damn thing drifts west or wsw.. (Yeah right).. Either way, I am hoping that it lands somewhere a way from me.. Been through a Cat 5 hurricane already.. Someone elses turn..

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:39 PM
10 o'clock notes...

1. Official forecast calls for a nudge north Sunday PM. Forecast for 72 hours is 87 west. May be stall point or beginning of trip to NE Gulf.

2. TPC is adamant the trof misses Isadore.

Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:39 PM
Re: Steve.. probablities inching up for NO

For Anyone out there who has never been close to a cat 4 or 5, we are in Central Florida and when Andrew hit Miami, we had tropical force winds for over a day and a half and we were 300 miles away. No matter where this storm goes after Cuba, everyone on the Gulf will feel it for a few minutes to a few days. If it gets any stronger than a Cat 2.

bsnyder
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:40 PM
Re: Naples T.V.

Okay, I'm trying to explain something to my mom. If this storm skirts the west coast of Florida, and stays just off shore, wouldn't the first winds felt in Tampa be from the East and pushing water OUT of the bays into the GOM? And then only as the storm moved north of the area, we'd start to get winds from the West?



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:40 PM
Colleen breaks out the Dynogel and saves the Gulf States from Hurricanes Wrath

Is it a surprise to anyone that the models for an intensifying hurricane heading into the gulf are clueless ? The gulf is always a sore spot for the NHC and the models that they depend upon. It should be of no surprise to those of you who track these storms year after year, that Gulf storms can be problematic. So stop freaking out, take a breath, this is just one of those storms. Can't control the storms, unless Colleen breaks out the Dynogel again..


Dana
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:41 PM
Re: Naples T.V.

Agreed Frank. It's been so long here that everybody blows these storms off. As a Florida Cracker I've had 1 hit and a few brushes. I tell the skeptics to take a drive down I-75 at 70 mph and climb out on thier hood and see if they can stand up and stay there. Not likely of course. Now double that wind speed in your front yard. Better grab your boat anchor before venturing out though.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:41 PM
HEY ANON

I don't disagree with you but the last TS (Hanna) in the GOM went more west than most people predicted... and as I watched the system change to that slight westerly component, the probablities kept inching up more to the west over time... and it all started just like what's going on with Izzy... small increments.... now does 12% probability means that much... no, but if the trend continues it certainly might mean something in the future...

what you're looking for are consistent trends over time... will they change, of course... they'll go up and down with time... however, if they don't, then you need to take them a little more seriously... but they have to start with something


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:47 PM
Re: Steve.. probablities inching up for NO

Wow you were in Central Florida and had tropical storm force winds for two days ? I was in So Miami when Andrew passed, but I knew people in Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach that hardly felt any effect from Andrew.. Since Andrew was such a fast moving storm (around 16 MPH) the storm was only lasted for about 4-5 hours. I know because it was about 6am in the morning when I opened the door to my bathroom only to find my yard where my house use to be..

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:47 PM
broken record...but insane, nevertheless

cat three in 32 hours or less...cat three in gulf...stalls...heads north mobile...yadda yadda yadda...

this is the best weather site in the galaxy...and in all seriousness...i care about ya'll...but this one is gonna be a bad one..

question...doesn't it seem to you all to be rather small...is it a buzz saw like Andrew......or is it it's own special flavor...

ISADORE...

what a WIERD name...we shoulda known.


troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:48 PM
Re: HEY ANON

wouldnt it be funny if someone registered as ANON or Anonymous.

Ok need break from weather watching, maybe watsh my Sponge Bob Squarepants DVD


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:48 PM
Re: HEY ANON

Frank, I have to agree with you. Im not wishcaster at all, but this storm has been consistent going west more than predicted. Same as Hanna. I think landfall will be between Pensa and Pasc, (gut feeling). I have said this all along. I may be wrong and have to eat crow, but this hurricane has been consistent with its movement.

Southern


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:49 PM
things heatin' UP

we are weather wierdos....and boy do I LOVE it...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:50 PM
Re: HEY ANON

Thanks for your reply.. I hope you are correct, cause I would rather see this storm head in that direction anyway.. Saves me the headache of having to deal with the aftermath of the storm.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:52 PM
Steve

I can't see this thing stalling in the northern GOM, maybe it might slow down or drift in the SE GOM after it passes Cuba but once it gets going again as it approaches either the north or north east gulf coast it's going to continue on that track... my opinion only..

Don't you just love talking to the ANONs... sure wish they had a name or something to identify them and their posts.... all them anons post alike and hard to tell em apart... hey, maybe there is only one anon and that is his name... hmmmm, so that is why the posts are so similar... hehe


Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:53 PM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
Latest long range radar loop from Key West. It looks to me as if the center is already west of the Isle of Youth. I'm new at this, but it seems that if the eye went East of the Isle, Floridians would really worry. If not, don't shoot...Like I said I'm new at this!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:54 PM
southern4sure

it's comin our way...ain't it?

Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:58 PM
Re: southern4sure

Im not sure about a direct hit, but very close.

Southern


PaulyAce2002
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 19 2002 11:58 PM
Re: Lights in the sky during Hurricanes

The only time I have seen blue lightning was during the landfall of Tropical Storm Keith here in Tampa Bay the day before Thanksgiving in 1988. Gordon came by just off the West Coast of Florida before running out of land in Cedar Key in 2001, but did so in the day, as did Gabrielle.

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:00 AM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

I think its still a tad south of the Isle of Youth...looks like it could split the place down the middle at its current track. Whatever the case they probably aren't having a very good night there.

PaulyAce2002
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:01 AM
Re: Lights in the sky during Hurricanes

My bad...Gordon was 2000, Gabby was 2001.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:04 AM
Re: southern4sure

Rick you da man... love your posts especially when I'm drinking a cold one or two...

Southern... we need to keep watching the probabilities.. they keep going up I might start getting a little more concerned... but I'm not there yet.... I am still sticking with my Fl panhandle prediction, but no more west than AL/FL line, but still that is awfully close to Mobile... way to close for comfort with a CAT 3, if its gets that strong and I think it certainly has the potential...

what I don't want to happen is for this thing to track more west towards NO cause that would not bode well for us on the MS coast...

Hey ANON... I've been in a CAT 5 too... Camille... I experienced 5 feet of storm surge in my house along with 200+ wind gusts and 180 mph sustained winds.....


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:07 AM
FrankP

all the models put the thing right up our ##$%#
shoot...I hate it when I'm right!


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:09 AM
Frank

My grandfather was an engineer while the bankhead tunnel was being built. The workers took their families into the tunner and it was sealed. He always said if another major hit, he would do it again. Safest place he said.

Southern


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:10 AM
Re: southern4sure

tell us what Camille was like, Frank..cause we are fixin to experience a bad one...in all seriousness...

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:13 AM
Hey Rick

were you in Mobile for Fredrick... that was a bad boy for sure... I sure hope this isn't a repeat... its been a while since Mobile been blasted with a big one... still not convinced this is where Izzy is going, but then again..... why not...

You been predicting the big one for sometime... maybe you'll get it right this time... I hope you are wrong... got alot of relatives in Mobile...


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:18 AM
Frank

Yeah...I was here for Frederic...in '79...got married in December of that year...daughter getting married next month...get the connection...had a dream a few years ago..two hit mobile same year...first one soft...second one...you get the idea...not one to whine...but i have felt a bad hurricane hitting this area....real bad...hope I am all wet...seriously...but the feeling that the big one is due for the emerald coast...well..eventually ...even I will get it right. I have no powers of prediction...NONE...just having fun...problem is...one day...all this fun will result in a CAT 5 hitting this area....we are DUE...

kinda feels like it, anyway


PaulyAce2002
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:22 AM
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane

Actually Floridacane, thats not too bad of a gauge. Right now, whether or not it passes left or right of the Isle of Youth looks like a photo-finish.

Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:22 AM
Rick

Your too funny!/ Got your email.

Southern


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:27 AM
Camille....

lost everything I own.. I was 17...
house had 5 feet of water, after the water went down we had 3 inches of stinking mud... and no way to clean it....
slept on my front porch for about a month....
no clothes except what I had on when it hit...
all the cars had been submurged in water... none worked for weeks, some never did crank again....
no electricty for 5 weeks...
no running water for 3 weeks.....
no gas for 3 weeks
no bath for two weeks, rode my bike about 10 miles to a friends house for a bath...
I still have no pictures of me prior to 1969....
ate enough spam so that to this day I can't stand the smell of it...
long LONG lines for everything....
ice was a premium...
no gas for cars, but none worked anyway...
phone service down for weeks...
highway 90 useless for several months
they were giving away water in Budweiser Cans... boy for a minute I though we were going to get free beer....
tetanus shots were a must....
snakes everywhere.... killed about 6 in my yard alone
NOW THE BAD NEWS...
several of my friends lost loved ones... bodies were found in my neighborhood 20 feet up in Oak trees....

I was so young and me and all my friends were so excited that the storm was coming... I remember laughing every time they said on the radio it was getting stronger... I thought they were just full of it.... no way for it to be that strong...

YEAH, I want another Cat 5 in Biloxi... get real


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:32 AM
Re: Camille....

awesome post Frank...now I know why your are so ate up with it...so am I...hope it don't hit us...don't bet on it THOUGH...

ground zero babeee......

at least whoever gets it....will know...know what we all oughta do
go and help them and their loved ones and anyone who is suffering...go help them ALL...
That's what we ALL ought to do...someone is fixin to get the big one...hope it doesn't grow past a 3...but guess what...

IT WILL


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:53 AM
Re: Rick (a fun diversion)

lets do a quick math problem: assuming historical records are on the mark, the u.s. has been hit by three category five hurricanes since 1935. this is a small sample, but we'll use the strike frequency anyway. the spacing between labor day and camille was 34 years, between camille and andrew was 23. all three hit south florida or the gulf coast, with one landfall at cat 5. now, all three were small, compact hurricanes, with extremely tight cores.. damage was catastrophic within the eyewall but not too bad outside. for the sake of argument, lets say the cat 5 severe damage swath is 50 miles wide.. possibly being liberal. okay, so you here's the formula:
2150 miles of coastline from brownsville to hatteras.. where a five could possibly hit. we'll give mobile the benefit of the doubt and say it has five times the likelihood (which it obviously doesnt) of being hit than this stretch of coast in general. okay, so 2150/5=430 miles. now, a cat four will affect a random 50 mile section of this 430 miles every 30 years or so..
so 430/50=8.6% of the coastline.. 91% chance your section isnt hit. make this a stacked odds permutation and you have to go seven times before getting the odds to 51.7%.. near even. now, we have seven installments of 30 years to wait.. thats 210 years.
so, with mobile given an especially weighted, unscientific chance of getting hit, you only have to wait just over two centuries to see a category five come calling. so, all you have to do is keep making this forecast for every gulf storm for until the year 2212 and youve got an even chance of getting it right, once.
heheh... now that ive taunted the storm by saying how statistically improbable it is that youre going to get a cat five, id be shaking in my boots if i was in mobile.
HF 0446z20september


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:59 AM
Re: Rick (a fun diversion)

Thanks from Mobile.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 01:16 AM
Re: Rick (a fun diversion)

that guy that posted he had TS winds for 2 days in C florida during andrew if full of CRAP. I was here and had high clouds and passing showers with some gusts maybe near 20-25 at times then went to calm. What a imagination!!!!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 01:39 AM
Well

I dunno friends. I still have a discomfort about this storm, and I am in So. Fla. I will admit to a bit of wishcasting, but beyond that, I just look at that trof digging into Texas, and the motion of the clous in front of it shifting North and NE...and I just have a bad feeling that this sucker may turn north some overnight. Goodnight everyone. Let's all stay safe.

troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 20 2002 02:09 AM
Re: Well

no 2am adv yet?

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 02:12 AM
Re: Well

I was just wondering that myself. Anyone wanna take a crack at making their own 2am?

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 02:17 AM
Re: Well

Well its out now...but I think they could have saved time by saying "see the 11pm advisory" as its nearly the same. Should be interesting to see what this plane finds thats in her now. Anyone wanna make bets on 95mph winds and um 975mb pressure?

HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 03:15 AM
the take

0604z/2:04am edt
center 21.08n/83.03w
highest flight level wind 74kt
min central pressure 973mb
973mb usually correlates to about 100mph winds.. maybe theyll get stronger winds in another pass.
movement is still wnw, looks like the center will pass over the very extreme western tip of pinar del rio province in cuba.
track has been fairly consistent for over 24hrs now.
HF 0708z20september


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 03:22 AM
Re: the take

Yea, I was wondering the same thing when I saw that message. I wasn't too far off with my random edumikated guess. Wonder what kinda speed their dropsounds are getting..my mind is too fried to try and decode the jumbo this late in the night.

HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 03:22 AM
and..

pressure has fallen 8mb in about 7hrs. at this rate it will be a major hurricane (pressure<965mb )around noon friday. this further south track has all of my ideas about gulf meandering and eventual recurvature in a corner.. the goofy ever westward runs that nogaps/avn and several of the nhc suite models have put out at times have verified fairly well so far. of course steering currents should be nearly dead within 36hrs.. by the end of the weekend the orders for crow will be placed.
HF 0715z20september


tom5r
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 20 2002 03:38 AM
Re: and..

key west radar shows the eye just skirting the southern edge of the isle of youth.Seems to be curving to the west. You can see the eye spinning really well right now.

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 03:48 AM
Re: and..

That tin foil on the rabbit ears radar site I posted earlier shows the eye as well and doesn't shove it so eratically westward, but does seem like its headed more west than anything now. Just in case ur bored and don't feel like looking back its... http://www.met.inf.cu/radar.asp

tom5r
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 20 2002 04:00 AM
Re: and..

hey, I like that little tin foil rabbit eared radar. Nice graphics. I believe the keys are out of danger at this point. Definetly going into the gulf. From there, who knows?

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 04:09 AM
Re: and..

Looks like your just gonna get some random wind and rain in the keys. However given the totally unpredictable nature of this storm, she may come back to haunt ya later this week.

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 05:04 AM
Cat 2 and growing!

Well she's now a strong Cat 2 (105mph winds), just a stones throw from being a Cat 3. All eyes on the next flights...will she become a major this morning?

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 20 2002 05:05 AM
WOW

Winds now up to 105 mph. Major cane very, very soon!!!!

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 05:12 AM
Re: WOW

Forcast has it a major cane today. As I said, all eyes on the flights. Interesting that they have it sitting in the gulf so long. I'm also curious as why they hold the intensity at 105k, unless they are just trying to keep from widespread panic. Seems with it parked out in the super warm gulf with nothing to stop it...that bad things (tm) will happen.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 06:24 AM
Re: the take

We are waking up to a very disturbing scenario for some one this weekend. Has anyone here ever noticed the tendency of a growing hurricane to present the shape of a fetus on an ultrasound when the cloud tops are highlighted? Makes one think about the mind of God.....

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 06:26 AM
Re: the take

A fetus? I never even remotely considered the idea. It does, now that u mention it. Well if this is a fetus its been the longest most painful labor and delivery ever....and its comming out to be one very big baby.

Bruce
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 06:33 AM
Re: the take

At 105mph I thought we would be seeing a eye by now

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 06:37 AM
Re: the take

It is clear as a bell on both Key West and the Cuban radar. Not sure why its not obvious on the IR.

Bruce
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 06:44 AM
Re: the take

Also looking at TWC GOM IR loop, That cold front is pushing some massive amounts of thunderstorms all along the coast of Mexico. Still don't understand why that trough is not going to pick him up.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 06:45 AM
Re: the take

Check out the Dvorak on the NHC page. Under the floater URL it is very very obvious how strong that center is. There is not a single bit of breakage and it is starting to get a thick lining of clouds around the center. We very well may have a Cat 3 now. But it is not far away unless it loses some steam going over Cuba

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 06:55 AM
Re: the take

No doubt this is one hell of a storm. If its not a cat 3 now, it will be as soon as it clears Cuba. This thing has a cat 5 written all over it. Its the perfect scenario for one. No, I'm not wishcasting, as I said before I'm from Indiana and it'd take a Cat 5 moving at 500mph due north to hit me!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 07:00 AM
Re: the take

Appears the ULL to the west of the system is now moving ENE as it interacts with the front droping of the Texas coast. Have a gut feeling this front will push Izzy on a more northly track in the next 12-24 hours.
SB
South Florida


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 07:01 AM
Re: the take

I agree Bruce.... I also stated that last night that this strong southerly flow we now have in the northern gulf coast should influence Izzy... I don't think the models agree with me at all... Maybe the trough is going to flatten out over the weekend and lose its potential for influencing the storm... I do know that if the trough stalls and and does pick up Izzy, we have a very similar scenario to how Camille set up relative to track.... and someone is going to get blasted sooner rather than later...

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 07:08 AM
Re: the take

I use to think this was headed to Florida, way back when the NHC declassified it, however I am seriously thinking its about to be large enough to have a mind of its own. I think its off to the races to see if the trough can pick it up before it decides its own destiny and sits out in the gulf for a while. By the way, I've made a lot of post here in the past few days and am relatively new to posting, so hello to everyone. I'm Derek, from Indianapolis. I lived in Orlando for a while and posted from there. I work for an airline tracking flights if your curious where my interest in this comes in, if theres a big storm we aren't sending planes there!

ShawnS
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 20 2002 07:17 AM
Food for thought!

For all of those who still think that the this trough will pick Izzy up need to go to the NWS site in Corpus Christi,tx and you will find something very interesting. Their last discussion was made at 4:30 central time and it states that the trough is already lifting out and leaving Izzy behind. There is also more interesting things they say. I haven't posted the link but it should be pretty easy for you all to find.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 07:20 AM
Great overnight posts all...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrwv.html

Trof is already gaining latitude as it lifts out. Animate this link (set to 30 as always for complete effect). The NHC is now suggesting that a 3rd trof may miss it too - and it ain't even on the map yet. Shawn - you should be particularly excited with the 00z run of the UK Met. Goes to show none of us are out of the woods. Further, the European still has a Cat 3-4 off the Western YP by THURSDAY of next week! Can you believe that???!!!! Almost all other global models - except the GFDL and CMC are now in the W/WSW camp. Current tradjectory is NW as evident by the radar links. NHC guidance is shifted west.

This is probably the most interesitng Hurricane I've tracked in my years. One positive note, the experimental windspeed product at NHC isn't still going up at 72 hours as of the latest run. That's somewhat encouraging. 115 can be handled. 150 is another ball of wax entirely. Shear has increased to 20knots probably due to the ULL to the NW. If my Bastardi 101 is right, that puts it in a shear zone quadrant rather than a ventilation one.

If the majority of the Global tracks are hitting on the right scenario, we should all be in great shape for supplies. There will be plenty of time to shop and have everything replenished in potentially affected areas - especially if we're still tracking Isidore NEXT WEEKEND! Imagine that.

In the words of the immortal Rick Flair from days gone by, "Now we go to school."

Steve


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 07:42 AM
ACK!

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index?nav=home&type=jbs

Bastardi's out this morning. His take is a bit more ominous than yesterday. He's switched his alliance to Option #2 from the 3 he put forth yesterday and likes the European's idea that we may be tracking Isidore a week from today as a major storm. It's worth the read and forces me to take the storm a little more seriously. I've been going with a MS Coast ladnfall with a liklihood it would be further east. Hmmmm.

Steve


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 07:43 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

Well if this thing sits out in the GOM for a week or so there are going to be some really tight behinds along all the gulf coast... still can't see it above a Cat 3 or weak Cat 4 at this time.... don't like playing the waiting game... not at all... wears you out big time... we need this thing to make its mind up, screw the steering currents, and just go somewhere... period... ULL off to the west should enhance out flow in the NW quadrant... another factor, if it does just sit out in the GOM for an extended period upwelling certainly will be a factor and inhibit strengthening over time..... other than it dissipating, which I doubt happens, the best for all is for it to keep moving....

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 07:55 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

Don't know alot about all of this as a newbie, but the National Weather Service seems to think Izzy will still be a player on Wed, 25 Sep as it creeps toward the FL Panhandle. Here's the link.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 07:56 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

Hi Everyone - I am a novice and have been following you guys quietly for years. Today I have a question . . . when I look at the various loops and stills I am confused: I can't see how Isidore will miss the trof! It appears that the trof is in perfect position to shove him to the west! Please help me understand!

Thanks,
Cathy

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 07:58 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

I meant EAST -

Cathy


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:04 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

Cathy,

The trof is actually behind that front. Go back to the link I posted and animate for 30 frames. Behind the weather along the western gulf coast (in Texas), you'll see what appears to be a pickle shaped thing turning a bit and lifting out. Hope that helps.

Steve


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:07 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrwv.html

There's the link again. If you set it to 30 like I suggested, you can see the southerly end of the trof now above the latitude of the TX/OK border.

Again, hope that helps.

Steve


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:14 AM
So where are we now

A couple of random thoughts to pass along. Rick, I hate to burst the bubble. SSTs in the Gulf seem unable to sustain a Cat5, probably not even a Cat4. While Cat3's don't seem as exciting, one this large could pose major problems.
As far as track goes, I'm getting more comfortable with the idea of a Panhandle hit. For lack of a better bullseye, I'll put it on Jason Kelley's forehead. Jason can now breath a sigh of relief, as Izzy should be many miles away. The models are converging on the idea of a loop-di-loop in the Gulf, before a move NNE into Big Bend-Panhandle. I don't really buy the idea that a storm of Izzy's size will be dancing the polka. Nevertheless, I think the general idea is looking good. Couple that with climatology and common sense, and Izzy will eventually start moving more N, then NE over time. I really don't see a lot of compelling reasons to move him to the west, except maybe to prove to Shawn that he really doesn't want to see a major storm up close and personal.
I'm out!


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:14 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

If Izzy does go and spin around for a week, that could be good news. My guess is that the churn and upwelling of cooler water would eventually weaken him a bit if he stays over the same area for more then three days.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:17 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

Thanks Steve - after several runs I saw what you are talking about. What are the white clouds extending to Central America that's moving eastward? (That is the feature I was incorrectly calling a "trof".)

Sorry to ask such basic questions!

Cathy


ShawnS
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:23 AM
Stormhound

Once and for all, I DO NOT want a huge storm to hit here. If you would go and read my posts from the past several days I have said that over and over. A cat 1 is as much as I want. I have already lived through a STRONG CAT 2 back in 1983 when Alicia hit here. I don't want that again. From now on, be sure and read the person's other posts before making a comment like that. NO MAJOR HURRICANES HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:23 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

That's a 'cold' front. In the transitional seasons (May, June and September) they'll sometimes line up north/south say more than NE/SW as they're trailing down the Gulf because they don't have a big push behind them. They kind of just get hung up.

Steve


Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:24 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

Some interesting historical information I found this am. Thought I would share it with you all.

The Most Intense Hurricanes In The United States 1900-1996

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intensity is for time of landfall. The cyclones may have been stronger at other times.

RANKING HURRICANE YEAR
CATEGORY PRESSURE
(MILLIBARS) PRESSURE
(INCHES OF MERCURY)

1. FL (Keys) 1935 5 892 26.35
2. CAMILLE (MS/SE LA/VA) 1969 5 909 26.84
3. ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 4 922 27.23
4. FL (Keys)/S TX 1919 4 927 27.37
5. FL (Lake Okeechobee) 1928 4 929 27.43
6. DONNA (FL/Eastern U.S.) 1960 4 930 27.46
7. TX (Galveston) 1900 4 931 27.49
8. LA (Grand Isle) 1909 4 931 27.49
9. LA (New Orleans) 1915 4 931 27.49
10. CARLA (N & Cent. TX) 1961 4 931 27.49
11. HUGO (SC) 1989 4 934 27.58
12. FL (Miami)/MS/AL/Pensacola 1926 4 935 27.61
13. HAZEL (SC/NC) 1954 4 * 938 27.70
14. SE FL/SE LA/MS 1947 4 940 27.76
15. N TX 1932 4 941 27.79
16. GLORIA (Eastern U.S.) 1985 3 *& 942 27.82
16. OPAL (NW FL/AL) 1995 3 & 942 27.82
18. AUDREY (SW LA/N TX) 1957 4 # 945 27.91
18. TX (Galveston) 1915 4 # 945 27.91
18. CELIA (S TX) 1970 3 945 27.91
18. ALLEN (S TX) 1980 3 945 27.91
22. NEW ENGLAND 1938 3 * 946 27.94
22. FREDERIC (AL/MS) 1979 3 946 27.94
24. NE U.S. 1944 3 * 947 27.97
24. SC/NC 1906 3 947 27.97
26. BETSY (SE FL/SE LA) 1965 3 948 27.99
26. SE FL/NW FL 1929 3 948 27.99
26. SE FL 1933 3 948 27.99
26. S TX 1916 3 948 27.99
26. MS/AL 1916 3 948 27.99
31. DIANE (NC) 1955 3 + 949 28.02
31. S TX 1933 3 949 28.02
33. BEULAH (S TX) 1967 3 950 28.05
33. HILDA (Central LA) 1964 3 950 28.05
33. GRACIE (SC) 1959 3 950 28.05
33. TX (Central) 1942 3 950 28.05
37. SE FL 1945 3 951 28.08
38. FL (Tampa Bay) 1921 3 952 28.11
38. CARMEN (Central LA) 1974 3 952 28.11
40. EDNA (New England) 1954 3 * 954 28.17
40. SE FL 1949 3 954 28.17
40. FRAN (NC) 1996 3 954 28.17
43. ELOISE (NW FL) 1975 3 955 28.20
43. KING (SE FL) 1950 3 955 28.20
43. CENTRAL LA 1926 3 955 28.20
43. SW LA 1918 3 955 28.20
43. SW FL 1910 3 955 28.20
48. NC 1933 3 957 28.26
48. FL (Keys) 1909 3 957 28.26
50. EASY (NW FL) 1950 3 958 28.29
50. N TX 1941 3 958 28.29
50. NW FL 1917 3 958 28.29
50. N TX 1909 3 958 28.29
50. MS/AL 1906 3 958 28.29
55. ELENA (MS/AL/NW FL) 1985 3 959 28.32
56. CAROL (NE U.S.) 1954 3 * 960 28.35
56. IONE (NC) 1955 3 960 28.35
56. EMILY (NC) 1993 3 960 28.35
59. ALICIA (N TX) 1983 3 962 28.41
59. CONNIE (NC/VA) 1955 3 962 28.41
59. SW FL/NE FL 1944 3 962 28.41
59. CENTRAL LA 1934 3 962 28.41
63. SW FL/NE FL 1948 3 963 28.44
64. NW FL 1936 3 964 28.47

* - Moving more than 30 miles an hour.
& - Highest category justified by winds.
# - Classified Cat. 4 because of estimated winds.
+ - Cape Fear, North Carolina, area only; was a Cat. 2 at final landfall.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIRECT HITS BY HURRICANES U.S. MAINLAND 1900-1996

CATEGORY 5: 2
CATEGORY 4: 15
CATEGORY 3: 47
CATEGORY 2: 37
CATEGORY 1: 57

TOTAL 158

Major hurricanes
(Categories 3,4,5): 64



Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:28 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

Eye showing up on GOES vis... center at 21.66N and 83.63W... still going NW... Hound I agree with you .. I don't buy no Cat 5, never have, especially if this thing stalls in GOM... and I don't buy the system doing the loop de loop... based on size and inertia... but I can eat crow with the best of em... I'm still saying no farther west than the AL/FL line, with the panhandle getting the brunt... models are wrong a lot moretimes than they are right...

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:28 AM
Great post Kimster...

Historically speaking, lots of memorable ones on that list. Interesting, Isidore would not yet make that list as he is at 966mb. He's creeping up on it though.

Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:30 AM
sst's

The potential for hurricanes becoming a cat 5 are not bound only by SST's.......but I sure appreciate the insight. a cat 3 is exciting enough...Gilbert developed it's own weather, it became so large and intense...remember?...this one may not do that...looking at the satellite's...i have to watch it this morning for a while...but a category 3 meandering in the Gulf of Mexico doin' the twist, oughta make everyone sing and dance....

It will wobble to a 2, but I notice the feeding bands and general convection is growing. likely gonna pull moisture and strength as it makes banana splits out of the banana fields in Cuba...it has all the makings of a 4-5 to me..and I'm sticking to it...(POSITIVELY WISHCASTING?...a little)
Looks to me like it has a nice wnw-nw movement..will wobble a little over Cuba...and begin is ascent into hurricane infamy in a day or so...wouldn't be suprise to see regeneration to a 3 on sunday...and a cat 4 Monday....

depending on the movement...if Izzy keeps moving...she will begin her turn shortly after leaving the cigar factories....



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:30 AM
Re: Great post Kimster...

Is Isidore a He or SHE?

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:33 AM
Re: Great post Kimster...

In reply to:

Is Isidore a He or SHE?




Isidore is a HURRICANE....however, the name is masculine


Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:34 AM
Upwelling will be a non factor

Because the waters in the GOM are very warm both at the surface and at the deep layers and if Isidore stalls in the gulf no upwelling will happen due to those very warm waters in the surface and deep.But if it stalls for a week then that could happen but this wont stall for many days.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:36 AM
Re: Great overnight posts all...

Cathy,

That was Water Vapor Steve is showing you, Wait till the vis satellites come out in the day time you will be able to see much better on the movement of the clouds at low level and high level winds. Water Vapor is not a very good tool for predicting movement of hurricanes.


Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:39 AM
Re: Great post Kimster...

That immediately caught my attention...I believe someone should strongly consider ordering alot of Dyno gel....

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:48 AM
Agreed, but...

Water Vapor does show (especially that loop) why the trof won't pick up Isidore.

Steve


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 08:52 AM
Some morning thoughts, and off the beaten path data....

Growth and evolution continues, no surprises overnight...Izzy shoud be a major hurricane in the Gulf later on.

As far as the model runs, we are gonna have to give at least some weight to the meander solution...although you have to remember that the BAM's and the a98 models agree so well with the AVN because they are BASED on the AVN...naturally they shouldn't be too much of an outlyer...

I went digging this morning....this is an ensemble forecast, which is a composite forecast of several models blended together....it's interesting...check it out...

Ensemble..

Here is another, for the AVN/MRF ensenble, which is basically running the same model several different times with SLIGHTLY different inital data to account for posssible errors...look at the MSLP plots over the mid and long range...

MRF Ensemble

Then the NOGAPS ensemble....

Nogaps ensemble...

Similar data from the Canadian...

CMC ensembles...

Now, if you are thoroughly lost, here is the skinny of it...the blended output of several various model whcih disagree in the shorter term, ALL bring Izzy to the NW Florida Gulf Coast eventually...with STAGGERING agreement on location, if not time.

Food for thought...


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:00 AM
Latest model run from nhc

a subtle little change from previous run in the A98E and LBAR. Here's a summary of the latest run after 72 hours....
BAMD - going wsw after 24 hours - no real change
BAMM - going wsw after 24 hours - no real change
A98E - changed - has system continuing on NW track
LBAR - changed - has system moving more on a NE track as opposed to earlier NNE track

Pick your poison....

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02092012


Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:04 AM
Re: Some morning thoughts, and off the beaten path data....

In reply to:

Now, if you are thoroughly lost, here is the skinny of it...the blended output of several various model whcih disagree in the shorter term, ALL bring Izzy to the NW Florida Gulf Coast eventually...with STAGGERING agreement on location, if not time.




As usual Jason, you've outdone yourself...good show. This is both reassuring (I live E-Central Fla) and scarey at the same time. Any time a major storm is within a strone's throw from my trailer, I get antsy and make preparations to not only evaculate, but move my belongings to safer shelter where possible.

I guess the question begs: Why? IE, What is going to move the storm back East and North? Is it the "3rd" trough that isn't even on the maps yet that will do the deed or as a major storm making its' own weather tending to go north a bigger factor?


Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:09 AM
Re: Stormhound

Shawn,

Just ignore the "wishcasting" comments directed at you.

I enjoy reading your posts as well as everyone elses. I am here trying to better understand the entire hurricane processes period.

Kimster


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:10 AM
Re: Some morning thoughts, and off the beaten path data....

Why?

The main reason is the general global synoptic setup...there are gonna be continuous smaller trofs (shortwaves to us weather goobers) that are gonna swing by Izzy over the longer term...as long as that flow pattern continues (which there is a model consensus that it will, no matter HOW long Izzy stays in the Gulf), as soon as Izzy gets far enough north, he is gonna be picked up by one of them...be it the first or the 7th or the 30th or whatever...unless the troffing over the east breaks down completely or is substancially weaker than all the data we have points to, there is gonna have to be a north AND east component at some point.


Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:16 AM
Re: Some morning thoughts, and off the beaten path data....

GM Jason,

Very interesting forecast ensembles. I don't particularly like what I see. Cat. 5? A nightmare does not properly define what that would be like.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:17 AM
Re: Some morning thoughts, and off the beaten path data....

I know it's still to early to call, but I appreciate Jason's hard work. This my friends is scaring the bejesus out of me. Will be a weekend spent switching between the games and the Weather Channel.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:18 AM
Whats up with the FSU super ensemble?

I heard it mentioned once or twice last season. Have not really heard much about this one this year. I'm assuming it is still in the experimental phase; but I just never hear anything about it anymore.

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:21 AM
Re: Whats up with the FSU super ensemble?

It's there...and I have been looking at it, but the public access to it leaves to be desired...for what it's worth, it joins in the previous consensus...

BTW, I'm NOT predicting this thing to be a Cat 5...those are a totally different animal, and the atmospheric conditions have to be PERFECT to happen...all model data show a trend for SOME weakening prior to landfall...however, landfall as a 3 or 4 is bad enough.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:26 AM
I say forget the models........

Isidore is going to go where he wants to go. Just looking at the model maps give me a headache. They do not have a good handle on him. I'm thinking anywhere from Apalachicola to New Orleans at the time.

Yes I do see conditions as favorable for a CAT 4 or 5. That water is COOKING folks.


cyclone_head
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:44 AM
Hurricane History

Food for thought...a couple of theories....Historically, tropical storms that were born where Izzy was have been very hard to predict. Beginning in the 1900's a total of about 6 major storms followed the same paths as of today, however unlike the forcasted tracking, those storms ended up, at least 4 out of the 6, crossing Florida. I'm not too convinced of the forcasted paths as of yet. Another theory is the old "100 year flood" theory. It was probably one of those historic storms crossing Florida in the early 1900's that was the last so called 100 year flood...It is 2002...do the math....please comment...

cyclone_head (Rick)


Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:52 AM
Hey guys new invest in atlantic 91L

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home

This is for system SE of Bermuda and it may form into a subtropical or tropical system but be a fish.

But what I am watching more is the ITCZ that is active again and maybe something comes out of there but the cv season is almost over and there is much hostil conditions but you never know so from here in Puerto Rico I will watch just in case.


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 09:54 AM
Taking a break....

Gonna take a break for a couple of hours...need to remind my kids that their daddy still loves them more than the weather!

For those of you who have made nice comments, thank you...and I must say that all of you help me more than I could possibly help you....hearing all the ideas and questions and such helps me focus on the problem, and hunt down solutions...the level of interest and knowledge on here is excellent. You should all be very proud.

See you all around Noon CDT...Get those questions ready!



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 10:13 AM
Re: Taking a break....

I couldn't get those models posted earlier. Where in NW FL do they have a cat 5 and excatly how strong?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 10:31 AM
Hey!

B. Jesus? Wasn't that dude with Motown

Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 10:34 AM
Re: Taking a break....

Anon,

Here's the link Jason posted earlier:

http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/super/index.html

Change the time, I believe it projects out to 144 hours.

Kimster


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 10:42 AM
Morning

Well, looks like my prediction for a northward job last night was wrong, which I will be the first to admit. Looking at all the models and the images today, I am slowly starting to agree with the WSW theory, which I wasn't buying before. Especially with the mention of the ridge to the north of Isidore. Unless this thing shift a bit more north, and stalls just north of Cuba, I think it is going to meander slowly WSW, and head towards the Yucatan. Whether it moves ashore, or does the loop di loop, is anyone's guess. I'm watching intently for any changes in the track. Anyone have any ideas as to what, if anything, will cause it to deviate from the NW motion prior to 36 hours when the steering collapses? I think where the center ends up in 36 hrs. is going to have a lot to say about his path later next week.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 10:42 AM
Re: Taking a break....

Quick question. I know most people are saying that the trough won't affect Izzy. My question is that the front and Izzy seem to be on a collision course. What happens when they meet? I don't think I would want to be in that head on collision.

Thanks,
Keith


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 10:48 AM
Re: Hey guys new invest in atlantic 91L

Hey Cyc,
AVN has a "strong" wave around your island by mid of next week...
cc


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 10:50 AM
Re: Taking a break....

NHC now says that Izzy has maxed out for the next 24 hours. Also, the TS watch for Keys is lifted and one is posted for the Yucatan. Interesting. I still think that no matter how long it sits out there, Izzy eventually has to come north.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 20 2002 10:51 AM
Re: Taking a break....

You know you have it bad when you DREAM about troughs and ridges...;-) Sheesh. I am going to take a 30 minute break (like it's a job or something, LOL) and look at it again.

My neice, who just turned 1, has a favorite word: ISIT. (iz-it). I asked my sister if she would PLEASE give Cameron a tracking map, then say to her "ISIT?". Wherever Cameron's finger lands, that's where the storm will go.

Different from the way the NHC does things, but at this point, it could prove to be JUST as accurate as anything else we've seen. And we've seen ALOT. Although she IS my neice and my godchild, I daresay that in a battle between this particular 1 year old vs. a model ensemble for accuracy would lead me to lean towards Cameron's idea...because she is very strong willed and usually gets what she wants. :-)


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:01 AM
Hehe Colleen :)

Colleen you just may be on to something there hehe.

I just looked at the IR and the Water Vapor for the GOM...and I have to say I agree with some of the posters here....and am rethinking my WSW prediction above. The ULL is clear on the water vapor, and those are some MAJOR thunderstorms in mexico, moving east. If you look at the clouds currently over the Yucatan, on the last few images, they being to move north and east. I just don't see Isadore not being influenced, at least a little, by the approaching ULL from the front. Just seems like it may move a bit north before that front dies.

Thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:14 AM
Re: Hehe Colleen :)

does the fact it is near land and meeting resistance make the system want to drift to the west? if so once in open waters it should go back to more of a nw movement.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:15 AM
Intensity changing forecast?

It seems that every model I have looked at has IZZY at pressures well above what he actually is. GFDL seems to be the closest on intesity; but even it, surprisingly enough, is low compared to what Isidore has actually done. Combine that with what appears to be a pretty well defined front coming into the GOM, I think Izzy's track is going to start getting more muddled again after 18-24 hours and not 36-72 hours. Thinking that Isidore does not quite as far west and may not do a southern loop but a turn from WNW-NW-N-NE sometime in the period. Same result but probably a day or two less in the Gulf. I guess it is still possible that the storm tries to dive south into the Yucatan to miss the front. Just not quite sold that a storm of that intensity will take a southern dive. Granted Mitch is a prime example of that. It seems NE may end up being the path of least resistance.

PaulyAce2002
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:19 AM
Re: Intensity changing forecast?

That's pretty much what the LBAR model is thinking, a loop towards Florida...

ALL the other models have this going west now. Looking better for the West Coast out of Florida, but as Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'til it's over."


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:21 AM
cat 5.. ack

let me start by saying, all the cat 5 talk is getting a bit old. i know rick is kidding, but some of you who dont have your kidder credentials sound like youre seriously considering it. what youre doing equates to betting a magnitude 9 earthquake will shake california next month. not likely. back on page 7 of this thread i made a post that talks about how remarkable and uncommon a cat 5 event is. and all of those things jason posted are ensemble models.. blends of different runs of the same model.. it actually makes them bland and none shows a cat 5, more like a tropical storm.. but fairly good agreement that the florida panhandle gets the storm. so really, get off the serious talk about it. way too much hype, unrealistic expectations.
anyhow, isidore is getting pretty close to major hurricane strength.. still no eye showing on satelite. intensification is probably slowed a bit by land interaction... should be there later today. speaking of slowed, the storm looks to have slowed down even more. steering is already weakening.
upper pattern around the storm is in transition. the upper low to the west is sandwiched between the storm and the max from the longwave.. forecast to weaken. it may be adding that slightly more northern component we are seeing today. back to the east the new upper low.. that cutoff from a trough split.. is already becoming apparent. this is the one that is going to slow isidore down and provide much of the movement control. it would have to become very strong to push isidore west very much.
surface weather in the atlantic is a topic of interest too..
anybody notice the new invest? yep, 91L is out in the central atlantic. it's an old surface reflection of the former TUTT, drifting northward. big surface high to the north should stop it in the subtropics and keep its movement erratic.. basically the same that happens to isidore. none of the models intensify it much, though.
northwest of there, above the new cut off low.. convection bursting from the frontal remnants, and that old former hanna low that sort of sloppily lingered in the area. this will be the system that runs west under the ridge, maybe causes further buckling upstream. only nogaps intensifies to much of anything, but could be a weak little coast runner from hatteras to new england early next week.
western gulf: surprised by how well it's supporting convection. there is a disturbance in the gulf of tehuantepec being drawn across toward the BOC to join this conglomeration.. if it persists it will have to be watched. btw, throw the current model runs out if something starts developing down there. chaos theory, baby.
african waves: the deep westerlies down there are still hanging around, but weaker. actually a narrow ridge axis at low latitudes trying to pop back up. wave at 45w and the other near 30w have a decent amount of energy.. a few of the globals want to resolve something out here. pretty rough still.. i dont see much development in the next couple of days.
there... wonderfully complex issues in the atlantic. probably another development for next week too. K storm is probably in the works.
aite, nuther big post.
HF 1513z20september


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:32 AM
Just for giggles...

Just looked at the Operational MRF run (the extended range component of the AVN that runs out to 384 hrs)...and yes, the MRF does have a NW Fl landfall....on Oct 3rd. Yep...keeps Izzy in the gulf for 320 hrs...over 2 weeks!

Geeze...I SO love weather forecasting!


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:40 AM
Re: Just for giggles...

I don't even want to think of still talking about Izzy two weeks from now!!!! I think everyone on the board will be reduced to babling idiots from lack of sleep and constant arguing that the next trough will be the one to pick it up!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:40 AM
Re: Just for giggles...

lol i bet it wont be there in 320 hrs LOL.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:42 AM
Re: Just for giggles...

Have to kinda agree with HankFrank. I've been guilty of being overly concerned at tis point. Looks like alot of things going on now which would seem to prevent any significant increase in strength, if even any at all. Looking more and more like AVN with it's W to WSW direction may pan out. Lets hope.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:47 AM
Shawn

Lighten up. That is what is known as a joke. For better or worse, you have earned a reputation as predicting every storm will landfall in Texas. You can't expect not to here about it from time to time. In fact, weren't you ranting about how we were all fools for predicting a FL landfall? You can't have it both ways. You will keep hearing people talk about Texas as much as you will continue to talk about FL. It's all good as long as we don't take it personally.
Ok?


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:52 AM
Re: Just for giggles...

Sorry, my mistake. I thought everyone on the board had ALREADY been reduced to babbling idiots from lack of sleep...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:00 PM
Recon

When is the next flight?

PaulyAce2002
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:14 PM
Re: Just for giggles...

Jason, did that model forecast strength?

From my novices chair, I would tend to believe that it would flux with all the tossing around it would do...



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