MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 05:19 PM |
Isidore Nears
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11PM Update
Earlier reports were wrong. Both the 57mph gust... and the NE movement and changing of the hurricane watch.
Navarre is also receiving lots of flooding as is many areas near there.
10:20PM Update
New Orleans reporting winds at NE at 57 mph / 91.7 km/h with gusts to 69MPH.
Earllier mention of motion change in Isidore may be incorrect...
9:30 PM Update
Hurricane Watch extended east to Pensacola... Recon reports isidore moving NE now toward Mobile...
Tropical Storm Isidore shows signs of trying to reorganize near the center now, which may boost it to Cat 1 status before landfall. Folks in the area are getting tremendous flooding rains (and to show you how big this storm is, we are getting rain here in Orlando from it also).
Lili is holding on, despite getting torn up a bit. We'll have to watch this one toward the weekend. And Kyle, now a hurricane still there, will hold probably as a minimal hurricane.
Thanks for those in the Central Gulf for giving us updates on Isidore. Good luck to you all, and stay dry!
Apologies for the front page strangeness. It is getting overloaded with data for the advisories. I haven't found time to rewrite the rather complex system handling it. (I know what the problems are)
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:28 PM |
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Pensacola update
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We've had close to 7 inches of rain. Much more is expected. I must say I haven't seen such downpours since Georges in 1998.
Looking on satellite views, it looks like Isidore's East side is building convection and may just wrap around before landfall. We may just have a Hurricane on our hands tonight.
I think Isidore will come in around Miss./AL line. We'll see a NE turn I predict. Could go as far as Pensacola, depending on how far East he turns. It's also possible that he could come in around New Orleans and then bend NE into Miss/AL/FL for a 3rd landfall. :P
Should be an interesting night. This area has had it bad this year. Bertha, Hanna, and now Isidore.
SirCane
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:28 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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We're having massive street flooding in the City. I'm up on Met. Ridge so I'm about 3' up. But I left work just in time (really too late) today. Many major arteries are shut down, and others are several feet under. You can check on updates from New Orleans at:
fox8live.com (running real slow)
theneworleanschannel.com (WDSU NBC 6)
nolalive.com (Time Picayune)
insideneworleans.com (Cox)
Otherwise, there are numerous mandatory evacuations from Grand Isle to Myrtle Grove. It's pretty incredible, and is the most serious flooding we've had since Tropical Storm Frances in (I think) '88. The difference is there's plenty more to come. Basically everywhere outside the levee protection systems in St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, Lafourche and Terrebonne are under orders to leave due to tidal flooding. But it's the rain in Orleans and Jefferson. For the urban areas, it's really a developing situation because they're figuring on another possible 10" of rain tonight. That might be high, but it's not gonna get any better anytime soon.
I'll try to get on later and give an update on the city. I'm high and dry - well not dry cause I got Lotsa [tm] beer. Isadore rules.
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:32 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.80stp/si.klix.shtml
This is underdone
| mp3reed |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:35 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:37 PM |
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Re: Pensacola update
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"I think Isidore will come in around Miss./AL line. We'll see a NE turn I predict. Could go as far as Pensacola, depending on how far East he turns. It's also possible that he could come in around New Orleans and then bend NE into Miss/AL/FL for a 3rd landfall. :P "
And STILL no extension of the hurricane watch area over our way ! Needless to say, if they wait until 2am (or even 11pm) to issue those warnings, it's going to catch a lot of procrastinators off guard. I can't tell you how many people I've talked to today that have done literally NOTHING in preparation because it's "ONLY" a tropical storm warning and not a hurricane watch/warning. Sooooo, I hope that 1) it doesn't strengthen 2) it doesn't turn any to the NE and 3) catch
all the dummies off guard !!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:39 PM |
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thread starter
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izzy's probably 12 hours from landfall. crunch time, any last minute strengthening could still get it up to minimal hurricane, and break the cycle. there is some convection north of the center, and tons of subsidence cutting around the center from the west. adds to the baroclinic character isidore has been showing. still going with houma, borderline hurricane at most.
lili continues to burst convection and have its center repeatedly jump out to the west and then reform. nhc has been predicting shear to stop mangling the system for about two days now, yet it still keeps ripping away. lili appears to have gained a little latitude today with its jumpy and slower westward motion. if this doesnt kill itself it will end up meandering near florida/cuba/bahamas early next week.
kyle is hurricane, according to the nhc. like i needed them to tell me. official track turns it south and even southeast after 48hrs.. and starts weakening it. low confidence i reckon, should meander after 48 or so, maybe all weekend. still think this will be coming westward next week if it survives.
a small low has formed east of virginia.. with some limited convection. this was a coastal storm represented on models to lead isidore.. doubt it will try anything, but it is over warm enough water in a developing baroclinic environment..
out near 23/41, moving north there is still that old wave that was turned north behind lili. it should turn east beneath the deep low near the azores.. shear is lightening. dont expect anything.. but still keeping an eye on it.
african waves significantly weaker and probably not getting another cape verde system this year.. place shuts down about now usually.
in the long range.. west caribbean and BOC may have frontal tails that get left behind and caught under ridging during the next couple of weeks. it's the time of year for those things to happen.
HF 2240z25september
| turkeyman |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:42 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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Where did all the people go Steve? Night before last there were bunches of posts. Now it seems everyone is not interested now that LA gets the storm NHC predicted We've had a lot of rain today also. Haven't checked the guage though. My neighbor works for the NWS in the Slidell and keeps an official reading at all times. He's also good on updates and different weather patterns affecting hurricanes. I've been interested since Camille. When you've seen the biggest, these smaller ones just don't meet the mustard. I always keep saying, "Wonder when it's going to get bad?" At any rate, keeping an eye out for them high cloud tops that breed them tornados.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:46 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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izzy looks to be turning n/e plus lions said last few frames looks to be moving n/e what do you see storm team
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:48 PM |
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Mobile update.........
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VERY wet, wind is blowing....streets flooding, lots of area closings. Surf at Gulf Shores reported at 10 ft!
And it is predicted to get worse.
Southern
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:50 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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the tornados are here. jason is tracking 3 and maybe a forth.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:51 PM |
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Tornadoes....
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Just a quick update...
We have had at least one confirmed tornado in Walton Co (Destin/Sandestin area) with lots of tree and structure damage...In Santa Rosa Beach a mobile home is lying in the middle of a street, and no one can identify where it came from...We have also had about 4 other possible ones...I have just wrapped up about 2 hours of long-form tornado warning coverage...barely got the Isidore info in the 5 news due to all the local severe weather.
Gonna be a looooooong night here...
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:53 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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that was me with the post before jason didn't log on
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:57 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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So Jason where do u think the storm will finally make landfall? and how stong do u think it may get or will it stay the same strength it is now? Im here in Gulf Breeze an getting tons of rain. Wonder how strong the winds will be in the morning?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 06:58 PM |
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Re: Mobile update.........
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rain, as much as I have ever seen..probably as much as Hurricane Frederic already...and more to come. Joe B. indicated that the hurricane (not yet, I know) would intensify at landfall...maybe so...at any rate...were it to get it's act together...wouldn't it be interesting...a 100 mph wind possible?....who knows...but gusts to that...sure...and tornadoes.
Lilly is looking to skirt underneath...and be another thrill to watch. Kinda fun to track and learn and talk about these things...with no one getting hurt...
excellent posts, everyone....hang in there...and keep dry...I sure am...looking out my garage with the door open....
gonna be a fun night, i think
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CFHC
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| Wed Sep 25 2002 07:04 PM |
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Photos
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If anyone snaps photos of things going on (with a digital camera or scans, etc) can send them here. I have enabled file attachments to messages, so you can send jpg gif or png image files (up to 3000000 bytes) to share. You need to be logged in to do so, however.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 07:05 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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Really busy...some new local development...really briefly, I find not a lot of reason to quibble with NHC, although I think they are still too far west with landfall...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 07:05 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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jason do you see a n/e turn it looks to be if this thing taps la coast then moves n/e it could stay over the gulf loger what do you see
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 07:06 PM |
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satellite pics...
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sure look like a last minute intensification going on...New Orleans may get SUPRISED with this one, ya'll...!!!!!
| Larry |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 07:08 PM |
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Re: Tornadoes....
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Good luck Jason - hope your area has no more tornadoes! We were on the edge the path of one when Fran came through Raleigh..... a 4' diameter oak ended up in our living room. Luckily no one was hurt, although my three daughters were in the room at the time.
Your viewers are lucky to have someone as sharp as you to keep them informed.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 07:09 PM |
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Re: satellite pics...
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Rick, I'm still expecting the Cat5 you predicted, so I guess Izzy will pick up intensity in a hurry!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 07:33 PM |
Re: satellite pics...
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well, so I was off slightly....WAY OFF!
we are fixin to get inundated with rain...pretty soon...looking at the satellite pics. Ya know...If izzy kicks toward us...I might experience some 100 mph winds...a lot of excitement..and no fatalities or anyone hurt...just the way I would want..
A SHIP LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 64
MPH WITH A GUST TO 82 MPH.
but consider...sustained winds of 64 mph....another 12 hours to landfall...whatchya'll think?.....I would hate to minimize this thing...cause it seems to be like a pendulum. swings either way, huh?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 07:38 PM |
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Re: satellite pics...
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Maybe it will get real active tonight here in Gulf Breeze near Pensacola. No school tomorrow. I think the winds will get real strong later to. Does anyone know hoe strong the winds may get in Pensacola. We are on the eastside of the storm. Please help me out someone id appreciate it. Plus we got about 10 inches of rain in my backyard today. more to come
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 07:45 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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hey turkeyman we havent forgot you!! Go Dolphins!!
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 08:10 PM |
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Re: satellite pics...
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There is a chance that Isidore could reach min. hurricane strength before reaching the coast. There is currently some high-cloudiness wrapping around the western side of the circulation. All in all, I'd give Issy 35% chance of reaching 64 knots before or at landfall.
At 8 PM, Lili has 40 knots winds and she is now moving west at 6 knots. RECON is currently investigating her.
Watching TWC, heard anyone out on streets in NO is subject to arrest. I also heard people are trapped in their cars on I-10 and are being taken out to due to road flooding. Bad situation up there.
Around 5 PM today we got a squall here in Orlando, a tropical downpour and wind gusts to 30 knots accompanied it.
Kevin
| bsnyder |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 08:13 PM |
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Re: Kevin
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Kevin, just wanted to say GO BUCS!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 08:42 PM |
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Let's talk about this GANG
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I don't like the looks of this...kicking WEST...slightly...but worse..doesn't seem like it is moving north...
perceptions and thoughts...either eyewall is forming and a slight re-adjustment of the REAL center of circulation is evident as he re-emerges from the dead...OR...worse..he will STALL out there...well, since I am not one to get excited...no big whoop...
HOWEVER....
I SHORE DO HOPE THIS THING DON'T LINGER...
11 hours from landfall...all it has to do is slow down 50%...which...in the last few frames...duh...
what do you all think....need some experts here..don't like what I am seeing....
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 08:54 PM |
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RADAR
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Hi All,
Just wanted to let you know to go to www.my-cast.com and set up your own personal radar. You can zoom it in to anywhere you want, even right over your house or business. It is very accurate and up to the second. I have mine zoomed in on the Louisiana coast tonight. Richie
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 08:56 PM |
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Re: Let's talk about this GANG
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I'm no expert, but I see what you see. I can't figure out what exactly is happening. On water vapor it almost looks like a SW wobble, might just be the center reforming. But I don't think he's headed N at 10 any more.
Bill
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 08:59 PM |
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Re: Let's talk about this GANG
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Last post was me, thought I was logged in.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 09:05 PM |
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Re: Let's talk about this GANG
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Rick, on the long range radar loop it appears to me the center is still on a mostly N track, say around maybe 5-10 degrees.... I would imagine on its present speed I don't think it has more than 6-8 hours left over water before it hits the LA coast on its present track.. unless of course it turns more to the NE, then it would have more water to work with....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
Don't see the west center reformation....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 09:15 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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lions just said recon now has izzy moving n/e looks like he will not hit ala / fl look out
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 09:16 PM |
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doesn't show the true picture.
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Dr Steve Lyons on the weather channel says this thing is heading towards Mobile Bay...appears to ME to be hesitating a little....
guess what...?.I looked at the satellite loops, and looked at that last link....not sure what the heck is going on...need input guys...I have done NOTHING to get ready for this.
where are the xperts when ya need them? where is everyone?.
| Rick |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 09:30 PM |
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Re: doesn't show the true picture.
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You've done nothing to get ready?
Don't take it personal, but seeing as how you had all the info anyone could ever want but took no action, makes you worse than all the blissfully ignorant fools that just moved to the coast. Can you say "Darwin Award Nominee"?
But, actually, I think you're just trolling!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 09:31 PM |
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Re: doesn't show the true picture.
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FORGETABOUTIT, Aint nothing but a big ole rainmaker , ....GOODNIGHT IZZY !!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 09:32 PM |
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gettin' ready
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okay...I confess...i got ready...i bought some beer
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 09:36 PM |
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Re: gettin' ready
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I buy BEER everynight !!
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 09:37 PM |
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Re: gettin' ready
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huh. heard the same thing you did on TWC, but local newcasters haven't said a word about it. Do ya think ???
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 09:37 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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izzy must turn and go n/e the dry air is coming in fast by noon on thur it will be nice on the coast
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:00 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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9.30 hurr watch moved east izzy moving n/e at mobile
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:06 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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Are u all sure? Does this mean Pensacola could have hurricane force wind gust tonight an in the mornig or close to it?
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:10 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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can't find anything official on the extention. nothing on the last TWC report, and haven't heard anything local either. Link to info ??
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:12 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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yes i am in pensacola to looks like things change just like that
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:13 PM |
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Lyons says Izzy moving N/NNE
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Nothing else states that......anyone have any more info?
Southern
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:30 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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Can you point me to the info on the new change in the hurricane watch area as well as the change in direction?? Have a skeptical husband who's "willing to bet". I believe!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:36 PM |
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Re: Lyons says Izzy moving N/NNE
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so is pensacola in a better position to get strong winds now can someone tell me whats happening?
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:36 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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Still a lot of rainleft with Izzy. Has rained off and on In Brevard County FL and at UCF in Orlando most of the day. in the South part if Izzy will probably drag across Fl tonight and on Thursday.
Good luck everyone in the NOLA area. hope after the center moves throguh(or better yet before) it makes that NE turn it is suppose to. Get you guys in to that dry air that awaits after Izzy.
Troy (what a crappy time to be knee deep in studying, but I guess its better than knee deep in rain)
| greg-kfdmtv |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:37 PM |
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Isidore near landfall
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Isidore will be moving across the Grand Isle-Southwest Pass area in the next few hours. It is still moving almost directly north with no change in intensity....it will not be a hurricane.
Main effects will be torrential rain and tornado threat.
Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV Beaumont, Texas
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:43 PM |
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izzy lili kyle
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isidore ought to be ashore in a few hours. pretty sure it wont make hurricane. putting down a lot of rain, pretty much it. a pretty big disparity with what was possible before it hit the yucatan.
lili is looking pretty bad again. you can only wonder if the center has finally opened up. deep convection is very much reduced from its previous extent.
kyle isnt going anywhere right now.. and it isnt going there quickly either.
HF 0244z26september
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:45 PM |
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Re: izzy lili kyle
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did i say pretty three times in three consecutive sentences.. im going crazy. pretty crazy.
HF 0248z26september
| Rick |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:46 PM |
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Re: gettin' ready
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"okay...I confess...i got ready...i bought some beer"
I hope you bought a bunch! I thought I was ready for anything back when Irene snuck up on us. Had to wade through chest-deep water to get re-stocked on beer and cigs
My g/f (who had just moved to Boynton Bch from Wisconsin) went with me. After we got home with the supplies, there was a report on the news about people getting electrocuted in the water.... snakes and alligators in the water... deadly diseases in the water... etc.
Luckily, the first aid kit was stocked and I didn't need to go after bandages for myself after she saw that report!
| Rick |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 10:51 PM |
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Re: izzy lili kyle
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"did i say pretty three times in three consecutive sentences.. im going crazy. pretty crazy"
Four, actually! Pretty weird, eh?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 25 2002 11:56 PM |
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Re: Let's talk about this GANG
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Bill,
I can see the SW movement here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 12:20 AM |
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Re: Let's talk about this GANG
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it almost looks like a southeast movement to me. Izzy looks like he is sitting on 90, to me. Does anyone else see that?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 12:38 AM |
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Re: Let's talk about this GANG
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This is similar to what I saw earlier, only even more pronounced. But its difficult to tell where the center really is under all that stuff.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 01:01 AM |
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Re: Let's talk about this GANG
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In watching that loop likes like an eye is trying to form. You can also see it starting on water vapor loop. Kyle look good, such a pretty storm.
Lisa in NC
| cappycat |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 01:21 AM |
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From Izzy land....
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Lots of rain and wind, tornado warning up in Grand Isle and lower Lafourche parish. Blessedly, the only excitement we have had here on our place was when my dad's dog vanished during a potty trip. After a few minutes of seaching in torrential rain with flashlights, our wayward pooch was found. So now we are just waiting for landfall.
Stay dry and safe.
| cappycat |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 01:29 AM |
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Re: From Izzy land....
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as of 12:25 central 90.3 and 28.1 moving N at 13 mph.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 01:37 AM |
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Re: From Izzy land....
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ahh who cares isadore is all hype, we dont care about the rainstorm from isadore, but total amounts of rain and tornados are important to mention though. People there need to just go to bed and listen to the wind, it will maybe reach 50 mph and branches down in the main squalls. Lily, well she is still a mess, I didnt even make any predictions yet on her cause there is nothing to perdicte unless she creates a outflow. Oh well, nothing to talk about in the tropics, just alot of rain squalls. scottsvb
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 02:03 AM |
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lotsa rain
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a few more hours for the new orleans area, then it's done. gonna be quite a bit i'd imagine, when the storm totals are out. winds are near gale force with 50mph gusts at the lakefront, per obs. also, noticed a buoy down at the coast (terrebonne bay?) has a 986mb pressure.. 1am cdt intermediate advisory has 987. whoops.
lili has a knack for persisting despite never getting organized. moving slowly now.. but will shear EVER let up? dont think it can take much more.
HF 0605z26september
| Rick |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 02:32 AM |
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Re: lotsa rain
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Yup! Lily's a persistant little gal, ain't she! Got a drive to survive! I don't think she's finished yet!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 03:22 AM |
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Re: lotsa rain
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The NHC deserves a lot of credit for their landfall forecast of Izzy. They pretty much nailed the landfall in SE LA. I complain about them all the time (and still don't think they measure up to the days of Neil Frank), but they got this one right and should be commended. Too bad the same can't be said for the Weather Channel--hopeless since John Hope is gone. Steve Lyons is probably trying to turn Izzy towards Mobile in his sleep right about now. BTW, what did the lake look like today Steve?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 03:40 AM |
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Biloxi Getting Pounded Right now 2:30 am CDT
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Just came back from the beach... Gee I had to walk across the street... (nearly arrested by Biloxi's finest)
This is the highest tide I've seen in Biloxi since Camille.... Gulf water was at the sea wall in front of my house approaching the second step... (three total).... I've never seen it hit the second step... may get into HWY 90 before its done... I guarantee that there are many areas of HWY 90 in MS under water right now.... along with a plethora of businesses....this has to be at least 8 feet above sea level... maybe 9
Large sections of piers were floating everywhere hitting the seawall... probably from casinos.. street lights still on, what an unbelievable sight....
Treasure Bay Casino broken loose from morings... being held in check with cables
Large section of East end of Biloxi under water... mandatory evacuations.
Even Elena with her 100+ winds DID NOT PUT TIDE THIS HIGH AT SEAWALL AT MY HOUSE....((first step)
This storm is going to do much greater damage than was anticipated....
Winds have to be 50+ with gusts to 60....
Going back to the beach..... will post an update if I return.. hehe and still have power....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 03:47 AM |
Izzy
|
Check out this radar. The eye (or whatever it is now) is over land according to this radar.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
| Rick |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 04:05 AM |
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Re: Izzy
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Wow! That's a dead on bullseye!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 04:07 AM |
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Hey Scottsvb...
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Think it was all hype? Check out this list of closings as of 8:52pm. Keep in mind these are only major routes listed. Almost every street in town has some water in it. Totals will end up 12-17" in spots. I don't know how many homes were flooded, but it's probably in the hundreds or thousands. All that will come out in reports tomorrow. If I can find a link to some good pictures, I'll post it.
Orleans Parish Closures/Impassable Roads:
Downman Road and Haynes Boulevard underpass
Chef Menteur Highway and Downman Road
Canal Boulevard from Navarre Avenue to Florida Boulevard
Conti Street at City Park Avenue
Dwyer and Crowder boulevards
Earhart Expressway
Camp Street Exit
Lakeshore Drive
I-10 at Metairie Road
Pontchartrain Expressway and Claiborne Avenue
I-10 and Louisa
I 6-10 and Paris Avenue entrance
2900 Tulane Avenue
100-200 blocks of Baronne
1500 block of Canal Street
Annunciation and Magazine
Earhart from Claiborne Avenue to Simon Bolivar
100 block of Burgundy
Julia Street from Camp to the river
Conti and Royal
Carrollton Avenue from St. Charles to Claiborne
3200 and 3400 block of Tulane Avenue
LaSalle and Poydras
Most of the Downtown Development District
MacArthur Blvd. From Holiday to Kabel
General DeGaulle from Holiday to the Crescent City Connection
Jefferson Parish Closures:
Old Hammond Highway Bridge over 17th Street Canal
Highway 45 floodgate at north side of Jean Lafitte Park
Destrehan Avenue at floodgate
-------------------------
You get the idea. Most of the city is still impassible. This is a flooding event that's been going on for about 12 hours. That's pretty intense if you ask me - not just hype.
Tomorrow there should be some major stream/river flooding in St. Tammany Parish (Northshore) into Southern MS. It will get worse as the rivers crest toward the weekend.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/gallery_index.ssf
That's a link to some photo galleries, but doesn't really focus on how it was in the city. I'll try to find those on another spite.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 04:14 AM |
|
Here are some more good photos...
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http://www.wwltv.com/local/slideshow4/slideshow01.htm
If the link doesn't work, just go to WWLTV.com and click, "View Images from Flooding." WWLTV.com pretty much otherwise sucks as they require registration to read everything. But the images are in unregistered domain.
Steve
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 04:59 AM |
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ISIDORE
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Hi Steve,
5 a.m. center of Isidore 20 miles SW of New Orleans moving north at 16 mph. Should be right over YOUR house at 6 a.m. Stay dry.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 05:17 AM |
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Thanks Richie...
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It's all good. Rain's picking back up again.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37cr/si.klix.shtml
As you can see (4:10CDT), there is another band cutting across now. I think we'll get another 3-5" before the eye is out of here. The worst case for the city would be for Isidore to stall for a couple of hours. As you can see from the radar image (3:14-3:54), the center looks more like just east of Houma than 20 miles SW of NO. It didn't move too much during that sequence (not N 16/hour as TPC has repoted anyway. Tomorrow's a washout. I'm going to dry my rockports and the inside of my car when the rain finally stops. Work owes me some cleanup time since they're responsible me having to do it to begin with
Steve
| 57497479 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 06:07 AM |
|
|
Re: Here are some more good photos...
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Thoughts and prayers go out to everyone that is feeling the brunt of Izzy.
The slide show was un believable. Thank God Izzy was tamed down before comming ashore.
Toni
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 06:38 AM |
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Re: Here are some more good photos...
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Boy, have you got some rain out of this 12 to 14 inches and still raining
Good luck!
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 07:56 AM |
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Re: Here are some more good photos...
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Rick in Mobile, How are you hanging in there? Weather Channel just stated a tornado near Mobile, just checking in, hope your ok!
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 09:48 AM |
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Mobile update
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torrential rains, high winds, roads closed due to flooding, trees blown over, half the city is closed, and we have hours to go.
Just heard of a tornado spotted.
I think I would rather have the eye over me.......
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 11:07 AM |
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Biloxi update
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Pressure 29.19mb, winds ~45-50 mph at 9:30
Tide has gone down at least 2 -3 feet since high tide at 1:30 am.
Treasure Bay Casino suffered considerable damage... both main access entrance piers gone..
MS Coast Colliseum pier ~300 ft... gone... Colliseum is one mile from my house to the east... about 150 ft of the pier (in broken up sections about 10-15 feet in length) is lying next to the sea wall right in front of my house... I sat in my lawn chair in my front yard at edge of HWY 90 during the height of the tidal surge and watched large sections of the pier smashing into one another in the surf... quite a sight .... we have not gotten much rain at my house since early this morning, just wind and high tides...
Had this system been delayed another 24 hours it could have been a whole lot worse.... I'm sure for many, esp in NO it was bad enough.... most of the many rivers in the area are all expected to crest sometime tomorrow well above flood stage (4-6 feet)
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 11:11 AM |
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up the coast..
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breeze and showers here in tallahassee so far. cloud deck is maybe 1500' and moving along fairly quickly. was kind of hoping we'd get a rainband to kick the wind up some, that hasnt come through yet.
this morning.. lili is looking better again. very finicky storm. i would say that it looks as convectively organized as i've ever seen it, but unsure of the exact center, even on visibles. dont think it's open, though.. looks closed. right around 15/72.
kyle is going to be interesting to watch. according to modeling it starts meandering south and weakening next few days. 72 hr out it is a tropical storm and near 25/60.. with the ridging in the east i dare say that if it survives the rough period it will start working it's way towards the east coast.
underneath and west of kyle, lili will probably be trying something. modeling has taken it over to the gulf mostly, or maybe central america. barring the global model idea that it nudges north to the bahamas and then comes east, most likely will be meandering by cuba and the NW caribbean early next week.
11am stuff is probably issued now. probably no big changes.
HF 1513z26september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 11:29 AM |
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Well...
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Hope you are all staying safe and dry along the gulf coast....looks like you folks in the Tennessee Valley are gonna get a good dump as well. Hang in there...
As for Lili, the NHC has issued its last advisory for now. The storm has dissipated into a remnant low. Its hilarious to me, as a hurricane newbie, that as I look at the visible and the IR, I see a rotation beginning, and convection flaring around a "center,".....it looks better organized to me than it has in days! And yet, it is now now longer anyting but a low, which "may" regenerate. Shows you how much I know.
Still, I am going with the UKMET and the NOGAPS. This thing is gonna wind itself up, and head wnw, turn nw, and cross into the bahamas as a minimal hurricane. We will see.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 11:30 AM |
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Re: Well...
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Didn't mean to be anon there. Last post was from me.
Brett
Miami
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 12:11 PM |
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Re: Well...
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Lili sure is looking like she wants tos be Izzy's twin sister.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 12:13 PM |
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Re: Well...
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Agree Brett, she looks better now and the forecast track moving it to the SW of Jamaica is hosed. If anything she's (or the wave) moving 315 degrees now. Again as was thinking the same thing, NOGAPS and UKMET may have this right on. NOGAPS develops a stronger system though. If it gets into the bahamas the ridge will pull it westward. Let's watch! CHeers!! Steve H.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 12:22 PM |
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Correction
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UKMET has a stronger Lili not the NOGAPS. Sorry. Cheers!! Steve H.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 12:35 PM |
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Re: Correction
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Agree Steve. I do think its gonna make a difference (as the NHC does) whether she gets back together quick or not, in terms of her going more North sooner. Why is beyond me, but I'll buy it. If she gets her act together, and (as it already appears) she drifts a bit more North, I don't think she is gonna follow Izzy. I think she just may head right through Cuba as a TS, and then sit in the Bahamas for a bit.
Although I do have a tendency to wishcast, I am not doing so here. The ridge many models have building to her north, on the east coast, is what has me believing she may strengthen in the Bahamas if she stalls there. The next day is important in her final track, methinks.
What do you all think of Bastardi's comment about Kyle coming into play?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 01:08 PM |
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Re: Correction
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Not sure Brett, seems kinda stretching it a bit, Joe is, but it could happen. Depends on the extent and strength of the ridge. Looks like lili's closing off to the South of Port-au-Prince. Keep a watchful eye on her. She may come for a visit on Monday> CHeers!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 01:27 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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Apparently Tropical Weather Watcher and East coast tropical weather sites must have given up on all the action , that leaves this site alone in providing thought provoking comments and invaluable information about the tropics. Of course I forgot Bastardi's column however we'll be loosing that anyway soon. Can't begin to say how good this site is so won't even try.Am in the process of contacting State Farm Ins to find out why my rates are skyrocketing while So Florida is so well protected by troughs etc. No significant damage has occured in 50 years in my area. One further thought , anyone who has been to Mexico knows the quality of the shacks people live in down there. If only 6 people were killed in this storm how does the media come to the conclusion of huge death numbers in this country from a similar level storm. It's all hype.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 02:51 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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The storm was only a cat 3. While bad, the damage growth from 3 to 4 to 5 is an exponential curve. Plus, with proper warnings, folks can take pletny of protections. The housing in mexico is not really as shabby as what you seem to think. Truthfully, with some of the corrupt builders and inspectors in South Florida, a lot of the Mexican buildings are better built!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 03:25 PM |
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insurance costs
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I don't think it's the death toll that insurance companies are concerned about. Rather, it is the cost to rebuild homes and businesses that are damaged by torrential rains and hurricane force winds. The toll in the Yucatan is extremely high. We rarely get hit with hurricanes in the Florida pennensula. There have been litterally thousands of buildings built since any storm has hit except Andrew in South Florida. I'm not an insurance company apologist but I'm sure the toll of damage from a major storm will be in the billions of dollars even if the loss of life is not high. They will take advantage of any perceived risk to increase their premiums. On that you can bank.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 03:31 PM |
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Kyle
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Check out the 2pm tropical model coordinates for Kyle at 48 & 72 hours:
_______48 HOURS____72 HOURS
BAMD 25.3N 66.2W 25.8N 71.1W
BAMM 26.1N 62.4W 26.0N 64.9W
A98E 24.1N 62.8W 22.4N 64.7W
LBAR 25.6N 61.1W 24.3N 59.8W
Interesting--aren't those significantly farther west, and more westward movement between 48 and 72 hours, than previous runs, or am I not remembering correctly?
I certainly hope that's not the start of a new trend, and that LBAR turns out to be closest to the truth. Any analysis from experienced forecasters?
-Brad
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 03:39 PM |
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Re: Kyle--not as big a change as I thought
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OK, looked back, and here's the westward drift in the models from 8 am to 2 pm runs:
BAMD: about 3.5 degrees (just approximations--looking at 8 am plots, not numbers)
BAMM: about 2.2 degrees
A98E: about 1.4 degrees
LBAR: 2+ degrees, but moving SE in both runs
Not as big a change as I thought - I guess I looked at BAMD first and focused on that.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 03:43 PM |
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Re: Kyle
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The BMAD takes Kyle 790 miles WSW, BAMM 400 miles to the WSW and the A98E 525 SSW. That A98E forecast looks like what Bastardi was talking about this morning.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 05:28 PM |
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Getting my 15 minutes of fame tonight
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Local TV (WLOX TV 13) in Biloxi interviewed me this afternoon to discuss the storm tidal surge and pier debris in from of my house.... Pretty much told them what I posted on board early this morning about how high the tide got, watching the storm in my lawn chair and seeing the pier wash up... yada yada yada..... they said it would air the interview tonight on the 10:00 edition of the news (CDT)
Probably won't be 15 minutes but 60 seconds at best...
Female interviewing me was really NICE!..... hehe
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 05:42 PM |
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Re: Getting my 15 minutes of fame tonight
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Eyes? LOL
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 06:24 PM |
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Re: Getting my 15 minutes of fame tonight
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hey frank p, good deal. doesnt look like anything bad came out of izzy for you.
thoughts on the other stuff:
lili is alive but not classified.. you can see it is a closed low on satelite. if i'm not mistaken a closed tropical low generating winds of a certain magnitude is a tropical depression, but theres no following the nhc conventions sometimes. what is it rad likes to say.. if it aint broke, dont fix it?
official on kyle is for very, very little movement through 72. i think this is more or less correct, but probably be a little further south and west than indicated. bamd is just a little too over the top for me.
so much for izzy. gave us two weeks of tracking, and a pretty good scare for a while.. but, the usual. ssdd.
kyle and lili are iffy in terms of ever being a real threat, yet persist. almost october now. if dr. gray is (was?) to be believed, october/november will yield but one storm. basin shear sure does seem to have picked up in the last few days.. whether this is just transitional or el niņo is having it's way finally.. we'll see. still think that pattern swings will give us western caribbean activity around mid/late october.
HF 2226z26september
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 06:38 PM |
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also..
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that nasa interactive closeup satelite is really nifty. you can really pinpoint things with it.. this pertains to lili. here's my philosophy: the nature of the system, sheared as it is, has been to have a broad circulation open on the west side, and have it temporarily tighten into a small vortex whenever convection is bursting on the east side. ive been seeing this for days.. a small vortex will emerge from the west side, seem to loop under.. then another will run out as the convection cycles. maybe it's the same little thing doing cycloid loops over and over within the broader circulation.. not saying i know. but this is what it's essentially been all along.. now that it's not racing and loses the translational motion supercharged flight level winds.. they have dropped it to a 'tropical wave'. i do think that some exception needs to be made for cases such as this.
anyhow, still cant say if this will ever organize.. not only has it been consistently nudging its way into the retreating, now reorganizing upper trough.. but its own anticyclone has been lagging back and adding to the southerly shear.
should be near jamaica tomorrow. interaction with land might break the status quo.. whether that be to cause the center to redevelop in a better place or just kill it outright.
HF 2240z26september
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 06:48 PM |
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Re: Getting my 15 minutes of fame tonight
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Here is my quick take on the three systems:
Isidore: Done for as a tropical system. Just beginning as an extratropical rainmaker.
Lili: She looks like crap tonight. The low pressure area is still to the west of all of the convection, which btw, looks to be sheared and even dissipating some. Survival is very iffy at this point. I'll give her a shot of regeneration in a few days.
Kyle: No one really wants to take him seriously, and we don't have to until he proves he can survive under 30-40 knot shear for 48 to 60 hours. Doesn't look like trough will pick him up, but shear is going to slap him silly. If he can survive he may just go due west under developing ridge and intensify. You know what that means....yeah, it means wait and see if he can survive the shear. We'll take it from there.
African wave train has been declared dead for 2002. W. Caribbean/GOMEX could breed some storms in October...shear will determine whether these are weak little TS's or if we can add a minimal hurricane or two to the list.
Kevin
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 07:07 PM |
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Cane/HF
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Caneman.... yeah, among other a couple of other things, hehe
HF... all in all not bad... everyone really surprised with the height of the surge, me included... probably a lot more damage than was anticipated, all water related, numerous business south of 90 had 2-3 feet of water in them.. should all be cleaned up in a couple of days... winds probably did little if any damage... maybe a few shinges blown off roofs but that's about it...
Elena had an 8 foot surge... got to the base of the seawall in from of my house... Izzy got to second step and water was splashing onto the highway... this is the first time since Camille that this has happened in my area.... surreal seeing water that high, piers strewn all over the place, and water splashing onto the road
Final note: Izzy didn't reach hurricane status relative to wind strenght, but it CERTAINLY did relative to storm surge in my area... he put on a darn good show for me. As TS goes, I have to give him an A+ for sure
One thing for sure.... this web site is one of the best for storm information, analysis, and forecasting opinions...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 07:43 PM |
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Wave train dead
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Don't think so..latest wave off the coast exploded when it got to the water,,,may be one more system there.
IHS,
Bill
been a long two days!
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 07:49 PM |
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Re: Wave train dead
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Bill: Make sure you look on latest E ATL IR image, convection over water is fizzling while convection over land is still going. That convection will fizzle when it hits water though. Wave train is dead, I'll leave it at that.
Kevin
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 08:45 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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strong wave off africa hasnt weakened.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 08:50 PM |
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Re: Isidore Nears
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http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200209261800AI3_g.jpg
african wave looks better than it did earlier.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 09:49 PM |
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Izzy IS history
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Three words for NHC:
RETIRE THAT NAME!
If not for three landfalls, all with enough effect to make all who were touched by him never forget his name as long as they live....
If not for the fact that he reached Cat4, but you wouldn't call it so......
Then at least retire him for the fact that he made forecast models look like &%!#, never went the direction YOU said he was moving (N=W opps, sorry cuba, W=S opps, really sorry yucatan, NW=N he's all yours la), and caused me to lose a week and a half's worth of sleep watching (and feeling, 5 in of rain in 6 hrs is not your normal rainstorm) him do all of the above.
RETIRE THAT NAME!!
The storm formally known as Lili shows another burst of life tonight E of Jamaica.......if this was just starting up, everybody would be getting all excited, but Lili, were tired of the tease act. Time to show us something more than a burst to the NE, it's becoming a old movie this year.
Kyle, what's up with you? Rumor has it you might get down into an interesting lat+lon, again if you were coming from the west, everybody would be excited, but approach PR from the north? Can you handle the shear coming at you, guy? How much longer can you stay out there and not fall apart?
Great posts from everybody in the GOM and beyond. Rickinmobile, man if you want a Cat5 in Mobile, you might want to buy a few more things to go with the beer, or at least buy more beer so when Lyons says "it heading for Mobile!" you won't believe him.
Joe in Jax
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 10:09 PM |
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Re: Izzy IS history
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i see people talking nonsense now..
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 10:17 PM |
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Re: Izzy IS history
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I see people reading it.......
But I can't tell who they are????
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 10:44 PM |
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Re: Izzy IS history
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And now for some more of my nutty stuff...
Lili is back at 11
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 10:47 PM |
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Re: Izzy IS history
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I SEE DEAD PEOPLE !!!!!!!!!!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 10:58 PM |
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Indeed..Lili is back..
|
002
WONT41 KNHC 270234
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002
QUIKSCAT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM LILI HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED. SINCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 11:38 PM |
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Re: Indeed..Lili is back..
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jason where is the discussion on lilly??I only seem to find the advisory!!!!
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Sep 26 2002 11:50 PM |
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Re: Indeed..Lili is back..
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Here is the 11pm Discussion:
WTNT43 KNHC 270339
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002
A 26/2319Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH LILI HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND
THAT A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
NOW EXISTS. IN ADDITION...A 26/2309Z SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS
INDICATED A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO COOLED TO -80 TO -85C
DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL SHEARED. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LILI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSERVATIVELY
BASED ON QUIKSCAT WIND DATA. HOWEVER... SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND
STRONGER WINDS IN GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE LIKELY EXIST IN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/05...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE WORD
ESTIMATE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LILI MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD
AFTER 48 HOURS ONCE LILI CLEARS JAMAICA. THE FORWARD SPEED OF LILI
IS PROBLEMATIC WITH MODEL SPEEDS RANGING FROM AS LOW 5 KT BY THE
AVN/GFS MODEL AND AS HIGH AS 12 KT BY THE NOGAPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK WILL USE A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD VALUE OF 7 TO 8 KT UNTIL A GOOD
CENTER LOCATION AND INITIAL FORWARD MOTION CAN BE ESTABLISHED BY
RECON DATA.
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING LILIS DEVELOPMENT THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF LETTING UP SOME DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL EXISTS AND ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO LET
UP. BY 36 HOURS...THOUGH...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE ELONGATED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF LILI WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY
WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PLACE LILI UNDER MORE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE CENTER CONSOLIDATES WITHIN THE
DEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS LILI TO 75 KT IN
72 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 15.7N 73.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 27/1200Z 16.2N 74.3W 35 KTS
24HR VT 28/0000Z 17.0N 75.3W 40 KTS
36HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 76.3W 45 KTS
48HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 77.5W 50 KTS
72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.5N 80.5W 60 KTS
ED
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 27 2002 12:03 AM |
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observations
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i see a few rogue thunderstorms trying to form along swirl bands west of the center.. despite the shear. THAT'S new. shear doesnt look nearly as overwhelming as earlier, and the center is definitely not racing anymore. dont think it will intensify much for the next 24-36.. once shear lets up i'd imagine it will deepen at a more typical pace. long range stuff is a mix of into mexico and into the gulf... if you discount the globals that keep taking it north across haiti (discounted). i'm guessing it will skirt jamaica as a tropical storm tomorrow night and be in deepening mode closer to the yucatan by late sunday. dont buy the fast-west option. intensity and evolution of synoptic features vary on different models, so i wont bother making any best guess tracks, just the general corruption of the nhc official. by the way.. if shear and upwelling dont kill kyle.. i dont know what will.
wave off of africa.. plenty of convection, but not much rotation to it. slow developer if anything, and history favors quick recurvature if it develops very far east of the islands.
fsu.. louisville...!!! those are the kind of upsets i passionately dislike..
HF 0405z27september
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 27 2002 12:34 AM |
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more observations
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its an imaginary fish spinner, but i leave no stone unturned! gfdl and nogaps both want to make a quick developing, east moving low near 25/45 in about 24 hours. at least at 12z they did. so, watch for meaningless marco.. or nothing.
going for the high count, baby.
HF 0436z27september