MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Oct 03 2002 09:29 AM
Lili Weakens a Bit Heading for Central Louisiana

11AM update

Lili has made landfall as a category two storm, after being a strong category four yesterday. This is incredibly interesting, and plenty of studys I'm sure will go into what happened here with Lili. It's also very lucky that it didn't make landfall as a stronger system. God has blessed the folks in Louisiana for the most part. There is damage, no doubt, but not as bad as it could have been.

Hype yesterday was intense, for good reason, it was a big storm, and every inch of movement was being analyzed and even the slightest hint of trouble was extrapolated. Nail biting moments I'm sure for emergency management and folks in weather and at the Hurricane Center.

As for why it weakened suddenly, I am not so sure . It could have been the shear, the water temps, the elongation, or a combination of all the above, perchance sprinkled with a miracle as well. All the best to our friends in Lousiana! You have dodged yet another bullet in two weeks time. I hope the damage that did occur was minimal. Some areas, I'm sure, will have a lot to clean up.


Currently Lili is moving inland, and has dropped to category 1 status, causing some wind damage and rain. It is still moving very rapidly. Hopefully quickly away so cleanup can commence.

Kyle is still around. Say hello!

Original Update


Good morning, some good news to pass along.

Hurricane Lili has experienced a little shear overnight and has been downgraded to a category 3, and is moving west away from the New Orleans area which a few people voiced concerns over last night. However, it still is a major storm and is heading to the Central Louisiana coast.

The eye became ragged and open on the south overnight as the storm got elongated north and south. As it makes landfall today it will still give a farily large storm surge and come with wind damage. As for intensity we'll have to watch it hour by hour.

More to come during the day.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Oct 03 2002 09:58 AM
4:35 CDT...

This is about as intense as it's been yet. This is true Tropical Storm conditions. It's raining sheets and there have been 2 tornado warnings in my Parish (Jefferson) in the last hour. 1 was in Marrero and Avondale (across the river maybe 6-8 miles south) and another one in Jefferson, LA whic is due south of me about a 2 miles or so.

Steve


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 03 2002 10:35 AM
Re: 4:35 CDT...

Hang in there Steve, looks like it will be a long day for you, but she has let up just a little. Hopefully making landfall will let some more air out of her tires. Eyewall kinda caved in at some point this morning. be safe and smart on your day off.

Joe in Jax


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Oct 03 2002 10:47 AM
Everything's cool...

There are a couple of downed limbs on my block and a little flooding in a ponding area on the corner, but it's not that bad. We still haven't lost power which I'm kind of surprised at, but it's all good. As the threat shifts west to Lafayette, here are a couple of links for the next day or two:

http://www.theadvertiser.com/

That's Lafayette's newspaper.

http://www.katc.com/

That's an ABC affiliate out of Lafayette, LA. There are some weather cams out of Lafayette and Eunice, LA.

Steve


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 03 2002 10:55 AM
Re: 4:35 CDT...

Just another note. Lili looks like she's gone about as far west as she's gonna go. New Iberia looks to catch the NE wall of the eye, Lafayette will have the center pass right over it. Steve, your prob. in the worse rainband your going to see today. Good luck and hope things get back to normal quickly for you and your family.

joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 03 2002 11:04 AM
Re: 4:35 CDT...

Down to Cat2, great news for all of LA!

JustMe
(Weather Guru)
Thu Oct 03 2002 12:23 PM
Re: Everything's cool...

My thoughts and prayers are with you all In Louisana and Mississippi.
Happy it is not as bad as it could have been
Sue


BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Thu Oct 03 2002 12:39 PM
Re: Everything's cool...

Londovir--Cudos once again!!!



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 12:48 PM
LANDFALL

Northern eyewall now at the coast at the very west end of Vermillion Bay. New Iberia right in the line of fire in the front right eyewall very soon. Best of luck.

cappycat
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Oct 03 2002 01:46 PM
Re: Lili Weakens a Bit Heading for Central Louisiana

We're still here! Last night when we saw that N jog and massive winds, then there was a tornado S of us. We left and went to my fathers house (next door, so not far to go) for the night.

We have lost some trees...one is snapped in half at the middle of the trunk. Last night at about 3AM we could hear a roaring off in the distance towards the S, out in the swamp, then were hit with a pretty big feeder band. We didn't lose electricity though...didn't lose it with Andrew either.

Anyway, we are ok here. So relieved that Lili was not the monster we were all ready for.


cappycat
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Oct 03 2002 01:52 PM
Re: Everything's cool...

Steve, glad you guys are doing ok, too. I am thinking that this afternoon and a nap sound pretty good right about now

clyde w.
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 03 2002 02:05 PM
Re: Everything's cool...

Steve,

Thanks for the links last nite...I'll check them out in detail this evening...work's a *&%& right now. One of them reminded me of visiting the grandparents in the Glades.

Glad to see you made it through ok. Guess my Avery Island call was pretty close...hope I don't get any hate mail from any hot sauce fans.

Anyway, be safe, and I'll check in again this evening to make sure all the CFHC family from LA has come through ok.


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Oct 03 2002 02:15 PM
lili shows sympathy

heheheh. isidore did a pretty good job of busting everybody.. lili has seconded that. not coming in a as a major.. this is no big deal. floyd all over again for most people. goes to show how rare a category four hurricane landfall really is.
HF 1416z03october


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Oct 03 2002 02:19 PM
9:15am...

We're getting sporadic bands coming through with gusts in the 35-40 range. I'm just enjoying the day off. Glad everything's cool with you too Cappy. I'm still thinking there will be some bad weather today as the biggest danger is rainfall under training bands. We've been okay here in Metairie, but I think there has been some localized flooding in St. Tammany Parish (East of here) because they've been under a pretty vicious band for several hours. Good luck over there to everyone in St. Tammany!

Steev


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Oct 03 2002 02:34 PM
Re: 9:15am...

MS not having any really serious problems at all... Tide looks to be about 5-6 feet above normal.... Izzy had an 8 foot tidal surge... winds at my house about the same, maybe a little less... 30 - to 40 max gusts...

Water level got about 25 feet from base of sea wall at its highest point ... just got back from the beach... several areas of hwy 90 are under water and traffic rerouted... typical for this high of tides..

Goes to show you how perfect environmental conditions need to be to sustain a strong Cat 4 storm... they are rare indeed... Lili is still going to do quite a bit of damage but boy it could have been catastrophically worst...


BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Thu Oct 03 2002 02:43 PM
Louisiana 1927

The sense of relief and deliverance they are probably feeling in south Lousiana must be overwhelming this morning.
Good for them!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 03:14 PM
Power of Prayer

Pure and simple folks..how else does aCat 4 /Cat 5 hurricane ina favorable environment go from 145 mph (or more) to 100 mph, in less than 8 hours?

IHS,

Bill


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 03:35 PM
Re: Power of Prayer

I may be wrong, but I think the water closer to the coast was alot cooler than the water Lili intensified over. I'm not sure what the temps were. I think she also got some shear from the left as well. Okay, one of you gurus, help me out here!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 03:43 PM
Re: Power of Prayer

Thank Dyno Gel again for decreasing the cat from a 4 to a strong 1 at landfall.Winds 90 making landfall over last 1-2 hours. There is though no evidence yet of sustain winds near 90, only up to 72mph with gusts near that, should be down to 75 or 80 at intermediate advisory.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 03:47 PM
Its a good thought...

But I highly doubt prayer was the causal factor here. Shear picked up, dry air became entrained in the circulation, and the sst's cooled as she approached. Also, highly doubtful the 145 mph was ever accurate...was probably more like 120 at the surface, at the most, as evidenced by the readings from the central gulf buoy. A lot of intensity hype with this one....it wasn't her fault, lol.

As for the prayer part, well....the prime being sure must have it in for South Florida then. Either that or no one thought to pray during Andrew...



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 03:47 PM
Re: Power of Prayer

Hmmm...Bill's "pure and simple" theory makes me wonder why those prayers didn't work for Andrew, which intensified greatly before landfall. Maybe not enough folks were praying? Somebody picking and choosing which prayers to answer? Oh, never mind, not a religious discussion board.

In addition to the SST's that somebody mentioned, dry air trained in from the west, and some shearing looked like it occured. Will be interesting to see what theories - other than just prayer (no, I'm not discounting it, really have no idea - just hope people look for an answer that will help predict things a little better than that) - come to light in the years to come.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 03:50 PM
LOL

"hmmm", whoever you are....great minds....

lol


Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Thu Oct 03 2002 04:05 PM
Re: LOL

God protects fools and drunks I guess there were not enough fools and drunks around during Andrew but Florida has apparently been well protected since!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 04:11 PM
Re: LOL

(Hic) I resemble that remark!

BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Thu Oct 03 2002 05:39 PM
Re: LOL

I read in the NHC Discussion that the drop in Lili's intensity is going to be well studied.
But like the official tracks and opinions now, will the methods of prediction they arrive at be listened to, or given too much power??
Something has been bothering me -- like alot of other states, there were people who could not evacuate for many reasons: no transportation, ill relatives, elderly parents, no shelters.
'nuff out of me. Back to lurking...


cappycat
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Oct 03 2002 07:00 PM
flooding in Terrebonne

Just saw on WWL an interview with law ernforcement out in Terrebonne. Montegut, Dulac and Dularge are extremely flooded. Homes in Montegut with as much as 6-8 ft of water in them. Road way with 10 ft of water. Cocodrie also with severe flooding. That area was under mandatory evacuation for both Isidore and Lili. For Izzy, they were high and dry. I sure hope they heeded the warning this time. Residents say this is worse then the flooding they saw with Andrew.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 07:46 PM
Re: lili shows sympathy

I remember John Hope saying one time that the conditions in a strong Hurricane ( cat 4/5 ) are alot like the conditions on Mars here on Earth, ie. unusual, short lived, very foreign. He explained the reasoning behind storms like Allen, Gilbert. Mitch, Bret, and why the lost there intensity's. just a thought!

andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 03 2002 07:49 PM
Re: flooding in Terrebonne

hope the impact was to just a small area. a co-workers husband rode the storm out on a crew boat in lake charles. she is still on pins and needles. has anyone heard any damage assesments?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 08:47 PM
Re: flooding in Terrebonne

I have to say it.
Could Lili's drop been a product of Dynogel?
I'm starting to become a believer.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Oct 03 2002 09:25 PM
Re: lili shows sympathy

Yeaaa, we made it through. Hope all in Louisiana are well! Will be praying for complete restoration for everyone.

No matter why the lost of power happened, we here in La. will always be eternally greatful. We began getting wind around 4:30 am. We may have received about 4 inches of rain. We never lost power, however, friends and family are without power even now. Transformers did blow, and many trees fell. Local tv stations had great coverage of the effects of Lili. I believe in the power of prayer, and I would rather give the credit to God than Dyna Gel. In my mind, it was a miracle.


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 03 2002 10:11 PM
Re: lili shows sympathy

Glad to read things seem within reason this afternoon Some
flooding , power problems, and wind damage occur with every hurricane, but Lili, for whatever reason, didn't do nearly as much as could have been imagined. To all the folks in LA, hope you get back to normal just as fast as you can. We all need to make a living, ya know.

I thought about this for awhile today, and came to the conclusion that the NHC did alright with Lili. They really did almost peg her 48 hrs out, if not their errror wasn't by that much. I thought they took a big risk not putting NO under a hurricane watch, but they turned out to be right. I'm not going to take pot shots at them by saying something like "what if Lili ________?" because in the end Lili didn't. Nice job on this one guys.

I was going to write something about what seemed to me to be 'doomcasting' that was going on last night, but I've decided that now's not the time. Besides, since a huge disaster didn't play out before their eyes, they won't be here to read it anyway.

Great posts by just about everybody; I have picked up alot of good information and tips on this forum, I've really enjoyed being able to share my view of things with others, and have others share their's with me. I do hope that my poor attempts to use humor didn't bother anybody too much, I've just seen enough of life's bad days to know the sun usually manages to come up the next day.

Joe in Jax


Kevin
(Weather Master)
Thu Oct 03 2002 11:32 PM
Re: lili shows sympathy

I'm really glad to see the damage with Lili will be more category 2-ish than it could have been. Lili was a moderate hurricane, nothing more and nothing less. Will definitely be remembered for a long time and the "hurricane streak" is over. My thoughts and prayers are with those who were greatly effected by this storm.

Another thing...I'm beginning to think we've entered the new era of increased major hurricane landfalls in US. I also think that the EC is not going to get as much in the coming years as Dr. Gray has said. There is has been 4 years straight now with extremely powerful Caribbean storms threatening the US but never actually hitting. Lili just broke that "rule", and I think she marks the beginning of a major increase in US landfalling coming from the Caribbean. Sure, in a couple of years we will probably see a real bad season again (like 1999) just because we see those types of seasons every 5-6 years. But don't be surprised to see big Caribbbean threats from now on. This is something I feel we need to watch for in the coming years.

Watch the SW Caribbean early to middle of next week as some models indicate pressure falls down there. A prospect, but a slim one given we are still almost a week away from any such event.

Kyle should finally recurve...somewhere in between NC and Bermuda seems good. Basically, NHC seems to be on track.

Kevin


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Oct 03 2002 11:55 PM
Everything's winding down...

They put us under a tornado watch until 10:00pm as some of the final bands are rotating around the eastern side of the storm. It's still gusting above 30 in the city as it has been most of the day. There is only one more potential of a flooding, training band, and that's over the northern Gulf.

As to dynogel, ABC 26 put up a closeup map of the water temperatures over the Gulf (don't know where they got the map). Anyway, the blowup to 4 and downgrade to 2 happened over water temperatures varying by 10 or more degrees. Obviously, the hot pocket that it hit yesterday am quickly increased the intensity. However, when the storm (last night) crossed some of the cooler pockets, it petered out. Then, just before landfall, it hit another warm pocket and tightened up a bit, but didn't have any real pressure falls or wind increases.

Overall, most of the state escaped pretty easily with some exceptions. They were hit pretty hard in Iberville Parish with winds felling trees and damaging roofs. St. Mary Parish had many downed oak trees. And lower Terrebonne (as reported above) is stuck under tidal flooding after a levee broke in 4 places near Montegut - inundating Montegut and Dulac (way down 'dere). Grand Isle suffered the usual damage and remains under water. In lower Lafourche and Jefferson, all of LA Hwy. 1 south of Golden Meadow remains closed as the water is 4-5' deep around Grand Isle, Port Fourchon et al. The city escaped any serious damage with the exception of a few damaged cars and rooftops from falling trees. There is some flooding in western Slidell (east of Lake Pontchartrain) and several camps have been damaged. Some of the same subdivisions that flooded when the winds switched to SW after Isidore have water flowing through them again.

Lili wasn't too bad. I'm greatful for the 1 1/2 days I got off of work and the beer, coffee and snacks I had during its duration. I'm going to crash early tonight to catch up on the sleep I lost yesterday. I'm also greatful that there really aren't any reports of injuries or fatalities from the storm in LA, though that obviously could change. My family is fine, and I had a great time with my kids watching the feeder bands roll in throughout the morning and hopefully imparting to them some of the appreciation that I have for mother nature.

I think we all need a pat on the back - amateurs and pros. We have the best hurricane forum I've ever found on the web. Extra special thanks to the "C" brothers for all their time, effort, and expense!

Steve


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Oct 04 2002 12:44 AM
Re: Everything's winding down...

How bout we give you guys the rest of the season off?

Glad to hear you and your family did OK. The decision to stay home turned out well for you, and it seemed you were prepared to take whatever action was needed to keep yourself and loved ones safe. That's all any of us can ever hope to do when put into a fix like you were. Nice job, Steve.


BillD
(User)
Fri Oct 04 2002 01:57 AM
Re: LOL

I was born in Miami and have lived here my entire life. For sure we have more than our fair share of both drunks and fools. There is no doubt in my mind that as Andrew blew apart neighborhoods, two cities and an airforce base, a large percentage of southern dade county was down on their knees, with their families, praying, as their houses flew apart around them, and it obviously didn't do them any good.
Bill


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 04 2002 02:14 AM
Thanks Steve.. water temps prooves a point

Hurricanes are engines so to speak and you need heat to get them going and even minor water temperature changes can make a massive difference.

Local met here mentioned it before landfall but I didn't give it that much thought... always a learning process.

Anyway, glad you are safe and sound and here..


Bruce
(Weather Guru)
Fri Oct 04 2002 11:29 AM
2002 Hurricane season, ect

Well, the season is just about over. Maybe one or two more storms to go this year. Dynogel, I don't think so. Maybe on a supercell yes, Hurricane NO. Glad to hear Steve, you and your family made out alright. Things could have been so much different if LiLi didn't loose much of her punch. I think all of us Hurricane addicts got a little taste of what mother nature had to offer this year. I'm not going to touch the GOD spared us issue. Wishcasters, I think we all have a little bit in us or we wouldn't be on this site. Dr. Gray off this year big time in my book. Just goes to prove you can't fool or predict mother nature. We still have a lot to learn about our ragging Planet called EARTH.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 04 2002 01:19 PM
Some Louisiana Humor...

A friend of my from the great state of Louisiana sent this to me... After the stress of the past couple of weeks and especially with Lili, I thought we all could use a little humor... Hopefully my good neighbors to the west will take it tongue-in-cheek....

To ex-Louisiannans, present Louisiannans, and future Louisiannans:
Louisiana Hurricane Season Notes

We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any day now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Gulf of Mexico and making two basic meteorological points:

(1) There is no need to panic.
(2) We could all be killed.

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Louisiana. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one."
Based on our experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:

STEP 1.
Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.
STEP 2.
Put these supplies into your car.
STEP 3.
Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.
Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Louisiana.

We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:
HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE:
If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:
(1) It is reasonably well-built, and (2) It is located in Nebraska.
Unfortunately, if your home is located in South Louisiana, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they
might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss. Since Hurricane George, I have had an estimated 27 different home-insurance companies. This week, I'm covered by the Bob and Big Stan Insurance Company, under a policy which states that, in addition to my premium, Bob and Big Stan are entitled, on demand, to my kidneys.

SHUTTERS:
Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors, and -- if it's a major hurricane -- all the toilets. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:
Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap.
The disadvantage is that, because you make them yourself, they will fall off.
Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.
Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.
"Hurricane-proof" windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like
ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska.

Hurricane Proofing Your Property:As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like
barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc. You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately).
Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.

EVACUATION ROUTE: If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Louisiana," you live in a low-lying area.) The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.

HURRICANE SUPPLIES: If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Louisiana tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM.

In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:
23 flashlights
At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off,to be the wrong size for the flashlights.
Bleach (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)
A 55-gallon drum of underarm deodorant.
A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)
A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Camille; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)
$35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.

Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck, and remember: It's great living in Paradise.....!

Sorry for the length of the post... hopefully it will remain quiet in the tropicals long enought for some of us to catch our breath..


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Oct 04 2002 01:33 PM
Re: looking back and looking ahead

Lili proved that the hurricane forecasters with all the new technology, computers, satellites, and planes have a long way to go in predicting hurricane intensities.

While we here in La. lucked out and the windspeed of Lili without warning dropped 45 mph in 6 hours , it could certainly go the other way.

New Orleans' worst nightmare is a cat 1 storm tooling 10 mph towards N. O. from the southeast and without warning jump to a category 4 and gain forward speed in a sudden rush to the coast. Very few evacuate N. O. with a 85 mph storm coming. Until the forecasters get a better handle on predicting hurricane intensities there will always be a very real danger that this could happen.
Carmen in 74, Opal, and now Lili all prime examples of just how fickle these storms can be. The track is one thing the intensity forecast the other.
Hopefully next time the day after won't show a weak hurricane rapidly intensifying to a 3 or 4 at the last minute and throwing it's full fury onto an unprepared populace. How many times can you cry wolf before the wolf shows up? I don't know, but one day the wolf will bite and bite hard much like it did for Andrew, Audrey, and Camille.
The challenge to all the mets and especially ti the TPC in Miami will be to get a better understanding and a better handle on these mighty storms, and to maintain the confidence of those who rely on their information. The challenge is there. Let's all hope that it is met and met soon before there is a real worst case scenario.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Oct 04 2002 02:26 PM
Re: looking back and looking ahead

Moving onto to Kyle. ZZZZZZZZZZZ. Well, anyhow Kyle has separated from his convection and one wonders (ME) whether the mid-level will reform a surface low further to the SE of the existing center (as it did once already). Kyle wants to move NW. But The flow wants to fight this. Or, vicey vercy, Kyle wants to fight the flow. IMO center reformation is less likely, but not out of the question looking at the loops. Whether or not this occurs, Kyle may hang around awhile and be aggravating. But much less aggravation than having to clean up after Lili. Interestingly, the models (NOGAPS) try to develop an area in the BOC early next week, so that and the Caribbean seem to be the places to watch (the BOC not being what those in the north central GOM want to hear. Question for the masses. WIll we see another named system this year, and if so, where do we think it may come from. Thoughts??? Cheers!! Steve H.

VolusiaMike
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Oct 04 2002 02:45 PM
Re: lili shows sympathy

Back to Kyle, looking at the NHC forecast, the WV loop and steering winds, I am confused about the relatively quick (given his tendancy to do nothing else quick) move to the NW in their forecast. Looks like a W or SW movement this morning. Any body got any ideas?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Oct 04 2002 02:49 PM
October/November

Bill Grey predicted 1 for October. BTW he predicted 3 for September(we had 8).

I think we'll have 3 plus a subtropical storm. 1 in the BOC, 1 in the Carribean and 1 in the Atlantic near Bermuda.

I also see 1 in the Carribean for November.

Things are still rather warm in the Gulf since the fronts have not been whistling through yet. 50s have been predicted here several times already in the medium range forecasts here in La., but have failed to verify. They are saying in the 50s next week for the lows in B. R. but we'll have to see. The tropics have been winning out.

The way I see it the Panhandle and the Keys are ripe targets for October storms.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Oct 04 2002 04:36 PM
Re: Some Louisiana Humor...

Frank P,

This is really funny...I laughed a lot. Thanks for the good time.

cc


BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Fri Oct 04 2002 05:58 PM
Re: Some Louisiana Humor...

Frank,
They forgot the AXE! Gotta have an axe!
Cynthia


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Oct 04 2002 06:13 PM
Re: lili shows sympathy

AAAACCCKK!! Referring to my previous post Mike, Kyle's surface circulation took a beeline north, but it's hooking NW now. Meanwhile, the convection with a mid-level circulation (??) is heading SW against the flow of Kyle's Surface circulation. This mid-level circulation may try to take on a life of it's own if they move away from each other quickly. Kyle gives birth? Must have gone to Amsterdam for surgery. Anyhow this is an idea, we'll watch and see. But Kyle clearly is exposed and heading north. I don't think I've ever seen a MLC break off and swim against the LLC like that. Maybe this is the Son of Kyle that we thought would happen (at least Melbourne NWS jokingly referred to it from the models on Tuesday). Maybe it will come to pass. Nah, probably not. Cheers!! Steve H.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Oct 04 2002 06:28 PM
Perspective

I wasn't going to say anything but....

Folks, the comments about how God did not "spare" those in the path of Andrew are so WRONG. A CAT 5 hurricane hit S Fl and La (Cat 4) and ONLY 33 people died? Yes, there was a lot of property damage....but amazingly few deaths and injuries. That is the miracle of Andrew. As a song says...sometimes God calms the storm, sometimes he calms the child.

I don't want to get into a theological debate, everyone is entitled to their view. RE: temp gradients...haven't we seen powerful hurricanes over less than optimum water temperatures before that kept or increased their intensity, rather than lost it? I don't buy that as THE explanation, but I'll put it this way---even if it was the water temp gradient.....how convenient that it was in just the right place and time..or that the storm was in the right place and time, eh? Not a coincidence!

IHS,

Bill

ps---and then there was Cat 4 Bret hitting the least populated place on the entire US Gulf and East coasts?! A miracle is a miracle, and it wasn't by chance.

I don't pretend to understand why and how God does what HE does all the time, but , like 'good art' I know it when I see it!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Oct 04 2002 06:35 PM
Re: Some Louisiana Humor...

Fantastic..thanks, will insert "Florida" and 'florida-ese' in the appropriate places...

Great job, ROFL!

IHS,

Bill


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Oct 04 2002 06:47 PM
Just for fun...

Great and completely applicable article Frank P. We're seeing probably our last band from Lili in the CBD right now. Just a sprinkle and some wind, but I'll take 'dem tropical rains anytime I can get 'em.

Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Oct 04 2002 06:51 PM
Rest of the season

We were just talking about is at the office today, and I see that the attitude of some on the board is that 'the season is (nearly) over'.

Well, no, it has 7 weeks to go, and October can be busy. I don't know how busy but I sorta like what cooltiger (I think it was) said---3 storms and a st. And Fl is the most likely Oct/Nov target. Water is still very warm, in fact , it rebounded from 79 degrees just off our coast to 82 degrees today...on the north Gulf!

The point is, we still have the secondary peak in October to get through, and just because we have gone through a spate of 'close to home' storms, doesn't me we are through, or out of the woods.

Don't forget Kate in 85---Thanksgiving week, right here in Tallahassee! Cat 3 in the Gulf, Cat 2 at landfall.....

BTW, Kyle gave birth once,, maybe he will do it again?

IHS,

Bill


wannaBfrankP
(Registered User)
Fri Oct 04 2002 07:32 PM
pretty good, but.....

Nice one oh Jedi master of the hurricane, but...

You forgot two key topics for most of us Louisianaians hurricane preparations: beer and Nash.

I'm sure most southern Louisiana residents just didn't feel right this year with a notably absent Nash Roberts. I know that I, for one, heard several quiet whispers to the effect of, "Do you think they'll bring him back for one more year?" The comfort level of the general populous would have been raised a little if channel 4 would have maybe even played some old tapes of Nash and his marker (which I hear is now in the Smithsonian.)

The other important element in any good southern LA resident is the beer. I live directly on the northshore of Lake Pontchartrain (don't cringe, Slidell, not Mandeville), and for much of the past week, our street has been covered in marsh grass, camp debris, and water. It just wouldn't be the same to drive down my street and not see three can cosey-equiped beer-toating buddies for every one debris shoveler.

We all should be very thankful to live around such great people always willing to lend a hand. In fact, I saw more waves and smiles in the past week than I have seen all year. Thank goodness (translation: dynagel) things were not much much worse.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Oct 04 2002 07:53 PM
Well

I don't mean to pick on you Bill...but I have to speak to what I believe as well. There are endless candidates for miracles throughout history, when seen in a sympathetic light. We could go on and on and on about how something's favorable outcome was a "miracle," when it in fact could just as well (and most likely) have been due to chance. Flame me if ya like, but the lawyer in me finds fault in your logic.

By your reasoning, Lili was a miracle, beacuse she weakened. Andrew was a miracle as well, not because he weakened, but because people were somehow "spared." So we have miracles on two fronts, to the sympathethic eye. Logically then, God was not happy with the people in Galveston (where 8,000 were killed), Florida/Lake Okeechobee (over 1,500) or even Audrey in '57 (nearly 400), for these storms certainly cannot be considered miracles...or can they?? Perhaps they were miracles because they fertilized the land, or because 10,000 other people were spared...who knows?

All condescension aside, you have a right to your opinion, and me to mine. But if you are going to attempt to present logical argument, be prepared to defend it without bending your own rules when unfavorable evidence presents itself.

No one can prove or disprove the existence of a higher being at this point in time...but I would like to think that a storm that brought death, property damage, disease, and financial ruin to entire communities in South Florida would NOT be considered one of his "miracles." I shudder to think of what would happen if I took his name in vain...

Thats my last on the topic, and sorry for the tangent. On to Kyle...


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 04 2002 08:04 PM
Hey WannabFrankP

WBFP, two excellent points about the beer and Nash.... (although I think beer basically flows through their water taps) I'm also surprised old Mr. Roberts didn't make a guest appearance on WWL...

Cynthia we gotta add the axe to the list too.. 'cause dey all be axing for an axe right after dat dam storm'....

Hey WannaBFrankP.................. Nice screen name.... hehe....

And I know who you are, and where you live and where your work........ so unless you change it.... don't be surprised to find maybe a horse's head in your bed this weekend... HA.. I am Italiano remember....

too funny

Bill, I don't think the season is over yet... I expected at least a couple more storms during October.... big cold front should be here this weekend for NGC.... certainly time for that to factor in .... I just need a couple weeks reprieve..... to catch up on some sleep......

ciao


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Oct 05 2002 03:41 AM
How Long Will Kyle be Around?...........If You Checked Out.....

........the 11pm discussion, this will be an agonizing week or more. Franklin is definitely getting punchy:

THE ENVIRONMENT OF KYLE IS CURRENTLY VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THE SHEAR IS STRONG...AND THE SURROUNDING AIR IS
RATHER DRY. CONSEQUENTLY I EXPECT KYLE TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BEFORE THE SHEAR LESSENS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT THAT TIME
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LIMITED REDEVELOPMENT. NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A NON- OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS LIKELY TO CREATE MORE HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR KYLE.

HOW LONG WILL WE BE DEALING WITH KYLE. JUST FOR FUN...I NOTE THAT
THE LATEST LONG-RANGE RUN OF THE GFS HAS KYLE...ITS DECAYED REMNANTS
ACTUALLY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA JUST IN TIME FOR THE KICKOFF OF
THE MIAMI/FLORIDA STATE GAME...ONE WEEK FROM TOMORROW.

I hope the game is more exciting. ! Cheers!! Steve H.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Oct 05 2002 05:05 AM
kyle still there

mjo graphic shows the basin going into negative for a while.. probably not much activity for the next week or two. el nino is also finally squeezing out the cool sst pool near the galapagos, so basin shear shouldnt get any lighter. still expect another storm or two.
on another note i've taken a glance at kyle.. convection is just about gone. kyle has to survive for a while without convection if it wants to keep on being a pest. i'd say probably better than 50% it dissipates within the next few hours.. but the chance that it will keep persisting isnt lost on me.. it's already been going for two weeks.
going to get my fall break morning of hunting done.. time to catch some shuteye.
HF aiken, sc 0503z05october


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 05 2002 10:22 AM
CONVECTION FLARE UP

There has been a huge flare up of convection east of Nicaragua over night. Anything going to come from this? This is the time of year for that region. NHC not mentioning anything.

troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 05 2002 01:58 PM
Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html

do the close-up animation thing.
hints at a rotation.

good catch Richie


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Oct 05 2002 02:16 PM
Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP

Agree Richie, this area has been where the models have been hot and cold on with development during the past week, but theycontinue to show pressure falls in that area, particularly the UKMET. Can't tell what the shear is like there yet. Have to check it out. Let's see if this area persists. Cheers!! Steve H.

57497479
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 05 2002 02:18 PM
Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP

There is no doubt a big blow up of convection down there, and this is the time of year to see systems come from this area. Will need to keep watch.

There is also a little flare up around 52 and 13. Did you notice the little spin to its NW. I'm just learning all this stuff, so what i think I am seeing is a trough in that area that is pulling the convection a little N and the spin is a upper level low????
Go easy on me if I am wrong .... and If I am wrong please explain to me what is happening in this area.

Toni


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 05 2002 02:21 PM
Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP

Looks to be some SW winds over that area of the Caribbean (especially evident in the WV loop)..blowing clouds off to the NE.
As for Kyle, the 5am NHC advisory has him at 32.0N, 72.0W. I just checked out the latest visible. The exposed llc is very clearly defined at 32.3N, but only 71.1W..is this a move toward the east? Kyle keeps trying to fire up some convection below the center, but this just gets sheared off to the southwest.

Lou


Kevin
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 05 2002 02:40 PM
Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP

Like I said in my post on Thursday, watch the SW Caribbean closely in the coming days. This looks to be associated with a tropical wave that isn't moving a whole lot. There was some weaker convection near Panama yesterday. If this convection is from the same source as yesterday's was, then I'd say the area might have drifted NW some. There could be a slight mid-level rotation with the convection, but this one has a ways to go. Persistance would help. If I remember right, Michelle came from a disorganized yet persistant area of thunderstorm activity around the same area.

Kyle needs to go away, either that or do something else. Tracking him is actually getting be annoying.

Kevin


57497479
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 05 2002 03:26 PM
Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP

Thanks Kevin, I too agree with a lot of others that we will have a few more storms this season,perhaps even active well into Nov.

How bout those BUCS !!! So far so good.......

Toni


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Oct 05 2002 05:04 PM
What's the official count as of now?

What are we at, 12-4-3, or 12-4-4? My early season prediction was 13-8-3. That's obviously low in the 'total' number department, high in the Cat1&2 category and ? on the IH's with the Carribean season yet to roll out.

Steve-unlogged


57497479
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 05 2002 05:17 PM
Re: What's the official count as of now?

To tell you the truth Steve, I'm not real sure on the count. I have been working 12 hr. days lately and it has been a chore for me to keep up with all of this activity. Not much sleep lately, but hopefully we can have a couple of days off before the caribbean starts to get active. Sounds like your #'s are close!

Toni


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Oct 05 2002 06:53 PM
Re: What's the official count as of now?

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s1048.htm

Check this out. Obviously we're progressing with technology and meteorology. I hadn't even heard of this yet!

Steve


57497479
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 05 2002 07:59 PM
Re: What's the official count as of now?

Obviously these radars were in place to be used at the beginning of the season. I don't recall hearing anything about them or that they would be used. Anyway, the data that these radars can produce could be invaluable in the future. The high resolution is totally awsome, almost made you feel like you were there, but under safer circumstances of course.

The convection in the Caribbean and in the Atlantic is still holding together. The caribbean looks more impressive at this point. When I see convection firing in that neck of the woods this time of the year it gets my full attention.

Toni


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Oct 05 2002 08:08 PM
Radar

This project has been in place, off and on, since Hugo, and more so since Fran. It's a 'spin-off' (no pun intended) from tornado research....they worked on Bret too, but could not get fully into position.

IHS,

Bill


57497479
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 05 2002 08:30 PM
Re: Radar

This is my first season on this forum and it has really been great. I have learned alot. I just wish I had known about this site years ago.

SOMEBODY PLEASE TELL ME THAT IS NOT KYLE THAT THE UKMET IS TRYING TO TAKE SOUTH. IS HE NOT EVER GOING TO GO AWAY?

TONI


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 06 2002 02:26 AM
Re: Radar

After the two most exciting and intense weeks of the season things have quieted down somewhat.... wave in the W Caribbean appears to be holding it's own thus far moving towards the WNW and/or NW but not expected to develop any time soon...Presures inland over CA running in the 1008 and 1009 mb range tonight.. Kyle is a non event and subtropical low east of Bermuda heading off to the SW.. another wave approaching the antillies heading WNW but faced with a big shear event just ahead of it... so nothing imminent on the horizon...

If I was to pick which one had best chance to develop I guess I'd go with the W Car right now... if it can continue to persist and not fizzle out over land...

Saints still lead the NFC South I might add..... Old Miss whipped the Gators... BIG upset... HoustonTracker should be on cloud nine tonight...


Bruce
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 06 2002 12:55 PM
RAIN

Ed, when are we going to get some rain In Brevard? Melbourne set a record in September, October looking to be very dry also. Whats going on?

Bruce
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 06 2002 03:29 PM
TS Kyle

Kyle making a come back, again. How will the ULL to his west effect him?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Oct 06 2002 04:32 PM
AVN & Canadian Models...

Are among the most aggressive in predicting a western Gulf event in 5 days. MM5 and NOGAPS are more in line with an East Pac development. Canadian actually is putting a Cat-1 or Cat-2 between Lake Charles and Galveston. We're otherwise in a lull period (for the most part). If there's any action for the US this month, 15th-25th is most likely.

Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Oct 06 2002 09:18 PM
Re: Radar

Also may i "ADD" There is alot of the season left !......GO BUCS !

57497479
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 07 2002 12:41 AM
Re: Radar

So far this season has superseded the # of storms predicted by a lot of people. Just think offically it was suppose to be average to below average, and the season is certainly not over yet. The caribbean and the GOM could easily have another 2-3 storms and the Central Atlantic could also see another storm.
Then there is Kyle he's been a PIA, but he's been around soooo long that when he is finally gone I think I may miss him!
LOL Toni
HOW BOUT THOSE BUCS!!!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Oct 07 2002 01:04 AM
How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs?

Heh.

Here's a late afternoon note from Bastardi echoing potential Western Gulf action:

>>Full post tomorrow including a focus on western gulf weather where a pattern conducive to alot of rain, and possible development is setting up.

He also notes Kyle will move South, then SW and potentially threaten FL or the Bahamian Kingdom sometime later in the week. Looks like maybe an interesting week afterall.

Steve - Saints 4-1 - 1st Place in the ENTIRE NFC baby.


57497479
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 07 2002 01:36 AM
Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs?

Long range models also confirms what Bastardi is concerned about. Seems like the west/central gulf is a target zone this season.
I want to see Kyle start moving before I believe anything out of him!

BUCS 4-1 YOUR GOING TO HAVE TO SHARE THE GLORY
TONI


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 07 2002 01:50 AM
Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs?

Kyle just won't give up, will he? But threaten Fl or Bermuda? Years ago we called those nor-easters! Believe it when I see it. W GOM clouds seem real close to land to develope anytime soon; have no idea what that ULL to east of Kyle is up to. Sub-trop perhaps?

For all the Saints and Bucs fans: we here in Jacksonville can tell you for a fact that the Eagles are no lock for the Super Bowl as we beat them 28-25 (and we're in a rebuilding year? 3-1 ). In fact, all of Florida's pro teams are looking really good at the moment.

Frank, I told you those Gators were a weak Cat2, at best. Zook's catching hell over here.

Joe in Jax


57497479
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 07 2002 02:12 AM
Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs?

The BUCS are going thru a transitional year also, but I like what I see so far.
Toni


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 07 2002 02:20 AM
Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs?

And on that note, Toni, you just became a guru!

57497479
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 07 2002 02:33 AM
Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs?

Well thank you Joe, but I am only a GURU at replies. I am defiantly still a student.

Toni


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 07 2002 03:08 AM
Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs?

Well, at 11 the NHC seems to think that Kyle is now going to move SOUTH of me again. A very long discussion, which hinted at him poss. becoming a hurricane again. When Dora hit NE FL 38 yrs ago, it was because she interacted with another storm and got pushed west. Of course, they also said they don't really know exactly where he is; it seems he's got a good magic act going again:
THE INITIAL LOCATION IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH A 07/0025Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATING A POSSIBLE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION... WHILE THE SAME IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE MID-LEVEL DOUGHNUT-HOLE FEATURE TO THE SOUTH.

I have no idea what their getting at..........

Toni, your now a three-star weather guru student....I'll bet FL see's a landfall from something before Oct 31.........

Joe in Jax


57497479
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 07 2002 03:50 AM
Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs?

Hey Joe, could be wrong but I think they are just trying to say that there could be 2 llc. The one to the NW of the advisory position is exposed and there also looks to be a mid llc to the south, trying to work it's way to the surface. In the 5pm discussion they did speak about a possible center reformation to the south. We will have to wait and see which llc is the dominate, if it is to the N then looks like Kyle will be called stationary again, if it is south we may have hope for some movement.

By the way, How did I get the 3 stars and what does it mean?

Toni


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 07 2002 08:44 AM
KYLE

He will not go away!!!!!! Dolphins (4-1) still the best football team in Florida, we beat the world champions!!

57497479
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 07 2002 10:40 AM
Re: KYLE

OK, I take it that everyone loves their football and I can also see that there is a lot of football competition . So with all these 4-1 teams on this board all I am going to say is that it should make for some very interesting football this season.


Kyle is holding his own this morning but his center has become elongated a bit. There is now probabilities up for the Fl East Coast. Until I can really see some movement with Kyle I'm staying neutral with his movement.
The disturbed weather continues to linger in the SW Caribbean. Look at the convection this AM Getting ready to exit the Yucatan and than to the W. Really need to keep watch in this area.
Toni

GO BUCS GO!!! (Don't let me down chucky)


Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 07 2002 11:43 AM
Re: KYLE

Any one old enough here to remember Curly from the three stooges. When he would get excited about something he would go in circles and say wu wu wu and then finally go off in one direction or another? That is the way Kyle is starting to act....

Jax Chris
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 07 2002 12:09 PM
Re: KYLE

Making the obligitory football talk, I said (not here) at the start of the season that I would be happy if the Jaguars finished the season above 50%. So right now I'm ecstatic, but the season's far from over. I'm not sure what happened in the two weeks between the pre-season and the regular season, but even in the first game Jacksonville had a whole different level of play than we did in the four throw-away games. Maybe everybody was happy we worked things out with Smith.

As far as Kyle goes, I'm hoping he stays away from the coast, since I'm only about a mile in-land. He's made so many turns out there, though, that he's dizzy and I don't think he's capable of tracing a straight line. I swear this storm's listening to the weather radio; now that Kyle's heard that he's predicted to go SSW for the next 24 hours he'll try to go NNE just to be preverse (and since he's dizzy he'll stagger off SE). I guess for now it's just going to be continue to keep an eye on him and the gas tank filled.

Chris


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Oct 08 2002 03:02 AM
Re: KYLE

kyle is about to start its 19th day of existence.. already an unusually long-lived system. pretty good model consensus starting it south tomorrow and bending westward later on. so far modeling has had a pretty loose handle on kyle.. overpredicted westward movement and recurvature. my thinking goes.. consensus track but very slowly.. some intensification during shear gaps.
other basin features not looking very impressive. deep layer low east of kyle weakening and not organizing, possible frontal hybrid near the tx/la coast next couple of days. still various modeling hinting at central atlantic development, but this has been a nonproductive theme for about a week and there is little overall model agreement.
the idea about an mjo flip lull may be holding some water.. no new development since september 21st.. and about 15-25 days of quiet with typical mjo cycles. however, bastardi's high pressure at hatteras/west caribbean teleconnection is about to switch on.. so its just about time for the october activity to begin in earnest, should this pattern recognition scheme work. there are probably a couple more in the works, at least one, maybe three or four.
HF 0300z08october


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Tue Oct 08 2002 03:13 AM
Re: KYLE

I find it interesting that this forum has become completely silent with a tropical storm off the East coast that looks to POSSIBLY be taking a turn that could increase some threat to the SE US in the next week. I know, I know...we have heard this some tired song several times already with Kyle..but the 11pm NHC discussion hints at the possibility that our long-time lurker might just get into a favorable environment as it heads southwest in the general direction of Florida.
Maybe it's time to start paying a bit closer attention to future advisories....

Lou


57497479
(Weather Master)
Tue Oct 08 2002 03:32 AM
Re: KYLE

Kyle is about to make the top10 longest lasting cyclone list. If Kyle manages to get underneath the expected ridge than we may see him intensify. The probabilities for Fl. are starting to roll in now. Can't believe it but we may have to keep a serious eye on him.

Toni


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Oct 08 2002 03:42 AM
Re: KYLE

>>Maybe it's time to start paying a bit closer attention to future advisories.... <<<

The models are becoming a little more agreeable. FL EC seems to be their chioce at the moment, central part the last time I looked. Problem is, even if Kyle makes landfall, what will he be? He's looked so bad, for so long, I think most people just don't see anything there to be worried about. We'll just have to wait to see what, if anything, becomes of him in the next couple of days. Haven't we been saying that for about 2 and a half weeks now?

Joe in Jax


VolusiaMike
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Oct 08 2002 10:46 AM
Re: KYLE

I find it interesting that the Orlando area TV market mets are basically ignoring Kyle, with one exception. They all make mention, but one predicted a swing around the high, staying off shore then NE, another made a modest mention of a small tropical system moving S, while the third did discuss the possibility of Kyle influencing our weather. Usually the hype mode is fully engaged. Hopefully, all the predicters of minor, if any development are correct because I do not think anyone is paying attention. Maybe they are too tired from last month's adventures.


57497479
(Weather Master)
Tue Oct 08 2002 10:47 AM
Re: KYLE

Well after reading Forcaster Beven's 5 AM discussion I thought that we could finally kiss Kyle goodbye, but I have to say that when I looked at the Sat Loop this AM I was suprised to see that Kyle still has some shape and convection firing. If it comes to fruiton the GFDL and the NOGAPS are taking Kyle across central FL and into the GOM (unbelievable, I made a joke some time ago and said that Kyle was just waiting on a ride to the Central GOM like all the others) Any way there is a lot of WHAT IF'S for this to happen and the only WHAT IF we know right now is that Kyle just likes to hang out and is not in any hurry to get anywhere fast. Not too worried about the intensity part just yet, I would like to see a steady movement some where first before I put too much stock in any sure thing with Kyle.
Toni


Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Tue Oct 08 2002 11:28 AM
Re: KYLE

My guess is that the football schedules have the chambers of Commerce afraid to hype the storm because of the lost tourism dollars if Kyle is a dud. If he approaches Florida as a minimal tropical storm, he will simply chase the beach goers into the local bars and restaurants and no buisness will be lost and maybe more money will be spent than otherwise. They are truly in my opinion betting a high stakes profit on this storm .

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Oct 08 2002 11:46 AM
Re: KYLE

Yeah, Kyle has to be seriously considered for a landfall prospect, and I believe the models (and history tells us) don't handle intensity very well. Kyle will be coming under a strong ridge when he makes the west turn, and these waters near the SE coast and Bahamas are quite warm as they have been undisturbed by tropical systems this year. Current models have him coming in near south/central Florida, prabably just north of Stuart. But it's too early to call. But GFDL and NOGAPS (the one's that show Kyle surviving) have him crossing the peninsula into the GOM (GFDL at 50 knots coming into Florida) and maybe intensifying in the GOM. Just a scenario, but probabilities are rising. He could make it in time for the bonfire for the hurricanes/FSU. CHeers! Steve H.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Oct 08 2002 03:19 PM
Will Kyle Live to Gte Under the Ridge??

Whatever is left of Kyle will come across the Florida peninsula. Whether or not it is a thundershower or a TS or Hurricane is still the question. First he must survive the next 24-36 hours, as he looks less than anemic. NHC discussion has UL cutoff low and some ridging in the bahamas. How this all plays together will be interesting They have Kyle off the central Florida coast (250 miles east of Sabastian Inlet) at 50 knots at 72 hours. Much quicker than before. But many things unanswered. Cheers!! Steve H.

joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Oct 08 2002 05:08 PM
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??

Thunder Storm Kyle- I like that .
At 1 pm his center was out there for all to see, with everything sheared off to the SE. The enviroment in front of him looks like it is begining to change, though, and Florida will see something of him. If he makes it to the gulf, Florida might see him twice .

I will make no comments on how Thunder Storm Kyle looks; the last time I made fun of how bad a TS looked she turned into a Cat4 and thought about taking the big easy out. I will spare Miami/Jax. Kyle, you look great just the way you are!

Joe in Jax


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Oct 08 2002 06:00 PM
Bulletin from Collier County

FYI..btw, C bros, think we could start a Kyle thread?

IHS,

Bill

..................................................................................................

This is a post e-mailed by Collier County to their emergency mgt subscription list about noon today (10/8):

Tropical Storm Kyle was all but forgotten since we were following Isidore
and Lili during the past two weeks but this is the 18th day since Kyle
became a tropical sysem. It has been meandering in the vicinity of Bermuda
for the past several days but it is now moving once again. Currently, Kyle
is located approximately 600 miles east of Jacksonville and is moving to the
SSW at 5-6mph. It should begin moving to the WSW and be in the vicinity of
the Northern Bahamas by Friday evening. The long range projections have it
making landfall north of the West Palm Beach area as a tropical storm during
Saturday morning.
At the present time Kyle is in an environment of wind shear that would
retard further development. However, by Wednesday evening it should gain
strength with winds estimated in the 55-60 mile range near the center.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty that Kyle can redevelop but it
has managed to survive far more wind shear during the past two weeks.
If Kyle can maintain its tropical characteristics, Collier County will
experience a wet and windy weekend but it appears at this time that no
evacuations or shelters will be required.
If your plans this weekend include Orlando or Tampa, you may want to
reconsider. We will keep a close eye on Kyle and will provide additional
updates as needed. At any rate we will provide an update around noon time
for the remainder of the week.


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Oct 08 2002 06:26 PM
Re: Bulletin from Collier County

The 12Z GFDL puts Kyle right off of Jacksonville in 4 days as a strong TS/weak hurricane.

The 12Z AVN loses Kyle altogether, as does the CMC.

Kyle had no cloud cover at 2PM, but was still moving to the SSW.

?????????
Joe in Jax


Ricreig
(User)
Tue Oct 08 2002 06:42 PM
Re: Bulletin from Collier County

Someone recently was asking when we were going to get some more rain in Florida.... I have a sneaking suspicion that regardless of the intensity, Kyle will cause some rain in the state and who knows, given that it may cross the Gulf stream, very warm water, it may even prove 'interesting' as it intensifies rapidly into a full fledged hurricane.

One of the factors we look for in a tropical wave/storm, is persistance.....I think Kyle has proven it has that attribute....wouldn't be surprised to find it a bit breezy here in Central Florida this weekend....


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Oct 08 2002 07:05 PM
time for a downgrade

kyle still hasnt made a solid case for it's threatening florida.. today the system is sheared and exposed.. though moving south and probably out of the shear. kyle will probably be downgraded to a depression, yet again.. and may become so disorganized that it does turn into that open wave that so many globals have been taking across florida for the weekend. of course, at the other end of the spectrum, it could recover under lighter shear and intensify all the way to the coast..
if kyle makes it as a discrete system for another 24 hours, it will most likely hit the east coast of florida friday or saturday as a tropical storm.
HF 1905z08october


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Oct 08 2002 07:24 PM
Re: time for a downgrade

Actually, the last few frames of Kyle show him trying to get his act together again, as his structure is on the upswing and is trying to pull convection back in. Maybe I spoke too soon Cheers!! Steve H.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Tue Oct 08 2002 08:38 PM
5PM Update

Kyle now a TD, but more of a threat to Florida and moving faster. From the NHC:
Kyle weakens to a depression...again...
Interests in the northwest Bahamas and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Kyle.


Ricreig
(User)
Tue Oct 08 2002 08:56 PM
Re: time for a downgrade

What you say is quite true....however, this season I am not willing to bet against a system that has already become #8 all time longest lived tropical system, one that has been written off several times. So, case made or not by Kyle, I stand by my "I'll not be surprised if it is breezy and wet" this weekend in Central Florida....

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Oct 08 2002 09:11 PM
Re: 5PM Update

Latest satellite pictures do show a weak incease of thunderstorms to the southeast of the center. Even though Kyle was downgraded I do expect tommorow to show a developing storm heading for central Florida. Upper leveles wil improve as Kyle moves more southward. The farther south the better chance for development. If kyle makes south of 28 degrees then development will occur. This is no big storm but it could turn out to be a very wet system for Florida this weekend. Best forecast is landfall between WPB and Ft. Pierce. GUESS??

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Tue Oct 08 2002 09:22 PM
Re: 5PM Update

Took a few days off tracking...a little hiatius for me. Good thing I got the rest because it appears Florida is going to be dealing with Kyle by Friday. NHC only keeps the intensity at 30 knots through the period, but that simply means they are extremely uncertain. I expect Kyle to make landfall somewhere between Melbourne and Cocoa Beach with intensity ranging from a moderate TS to a minimal hurricane. Somewhere in between is what I favor most at this point. The convection has become slight more numerous in the past hour, but we will have to see if this trend persists.

Another thing I should add: who says weak systems are slouches? I have a feeling Kyle is going to be a messy ball of deep convection by the time he gets to Florida, not a naked circulation with dying convection like Edouard was. Flooding and tornadoes are a distinct possibility with this type of system, and all people in Florida need to keep a close eye on Kyle.

I will also add that I am leaving for a trip to the Smoky Mountains late Friday afternoon, Kyle's presence could bring some bad communting weather. Our plan was to get to the SC/NC border by Saturday afternoon...we'll have to drive slower with the possible heavy rains that Kyle may bring.

The Bucs are 4-1 and are looking to take control of the NFC South, Saints look out! The panthers have lost two in a row and have begun their slipping-off act. The Falcons would need a miracle to turn things around. Looks like a good, tight two-team race.

Kevin


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Oct 09 2002 12:00 AM
Kyle

Sure. I will be looking for Thunderstorm Kyle to come right over my house this weekend. I will keep my eye on it but it looks really bad in the latest satelite image.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Oct 09 2002 12:04 AM
Re: 5PM Update

If our friend Kyle doesn't get a burst of convection out of him soon, looks like he could dissipate. At 5 pm he looked to be wrapping some convection in, but now he is waning. There is subsidence to his NW and an ULL to his south. He needs to get into the moisture in the south. It's hard to tell how his LLC is even on Dvorak loops. They may keep him still as a depression at 11pm, or may dissipate him. Cheers!! Steve H.

57497479
(Weather Master)
Wed Oct 09 2002 12:12 AM
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??

CONGRATULATIONS JOE! You also became a WEATHER GURU just in time to greet the multi-talented , guess what I am now
------------- Kyle.
Looks like it is going to be a long week.
Toni


57497479
(Weather Master)
Wed Oct 09 2002 12:37 AM
Re: 5PM Update

Hey Steve,
At the 5p discussion Beven said that Kyle's center looks well defined,but it is hard to tell now on the visibles. It's a very hard call with Kyle because he has made so many come backs. But let's face it, he is either going to slowly fade away into the sunset or he is going to go out with a bang. If he can get thru another day he should be in a little better environment and the ridge should start to build. But if I had to place a survival bet on Kyle, I would bet that he will at least hang on enough to make his name famous!

PS Hey Mary,There is a lot of truth to your thoughts.

Toni


ROB H
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Oct 09 2002 01:42 AM
Re: 5PM Update

Looks like Kyle is history, Took one look at Florida and
said im outta here.


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Oct 09 2002 01:48 AM
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??

Thunder Storm Kyle seems to lost his thunder, and at 11 may lose his storm. Is the streak over? I mean there is nothing, zero, nada, going on with him at the moment. I became a guru just to declare Kyle dead?

Joe in Jax


57497479
(Weather Master)
Wed Oct 09 2002 02:14 AM
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??

OK Joe & Rob, check out the shortwave IR loop, there still may be a little hope. Let me know your thoughts. Have you seen the latest GFDL run? If that little scene comes to pass we may never get rid of Kyle and he will give Ginger a run for her money.(LOL don't you just love those sayings that you grew up with, looks even funnier when you write it)

Hey Steve H. what are you putting in the water over there???

Toni


Robert
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Oct 09 2002 02:21 AM
Attachment
Re:Kyle Will Live And Get Under the Ridge??

Well Kyle dont look to healthy, thats about all i got to say. if he survises he is coming to florida and thats lookin like abig IF at this late hour.

i am gonna see how this file thingy works


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Oct 09 2002 02:42 AM
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??

>>check out the shortwave IR loop, there still may be a little hope<<

Well, there is a spin there.

>>Have you seen the latest GFDL run? <<

The GFDL is a member of the Axis of Evil, and it's prediction will not be alowed to happen. That is the forth different outcome that it has forecast in the last, hmmmmm, four runs? Toni, I hate that model, but NHC loves it for sure. It hit my back yard this morning!

My Jags go to Tennesse to play the hated Titans, who at 1-4 also have a low-level center but no convection.


57497479
(Weather Master)
Wed Oct 09 2002 03:09 AM
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??

I think that Kyle is rotating around that axis of evil. Maybe that has been his problem all along, we may have to perform an exorcism!
WOW finally some excitement! You know I know what the GFDL does and it has changed it's mind almost every run today. But I am too curious not to look.
Even if nothing else becomes of Kyle we can at least say that he has made a few of us laugh.
Toni


57497479
(Weather Master)
Wed Oct 09 2002 03:20 AM
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??

We waited to long to perform the exorcism. 11p discussion says that Kyle is going to poop out right in my back yard in about 72hrs.

Toni


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Oct 09 2002 03:56 AM
kyle checking out?

kyle is a low cloud swirl this evening. there may be enough subsidence entrained on the nw side to prevent a recovery. it only figures that kyle leaves shear and heads toward the warmest waters yet, only to take a big drink of desert air and spin down. thats how it goes with tropical systems.
HF 0357z09october


57497479
(Weather Master)
Wed Oct 09 2002 04:14 AM
Re: kyle checking out?

Maybe we should start thinking about MARCO. I have to admit that Kyle is just about a done deal.
Toni


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Oct 09 2002 04:16 AM
Kyle is coming

Kyle is coming an I'm in his way!!! I do NOT think we will have tornado's or any bad weather. Kyle is just a rain system at this point.
Buc's are indeed 4 - 1 and look to be the best in the South.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Oct 09 2002 06:03 AM
Kyle & Bucs...

Kyle was still looking interesting on this afternoon's visibiles. He doesn't look like squat on the nighttime IR. If the model trends continue, and he's able to recover (which he has every time he's petered out) he'll be at least a TD if not a semi-potent TS at landfall in Florida late this week. If he does become a GOM problem thereafter, I'd look east of Ft. Walton for 2nd landfall. A pretty strong coldfront is liable to blast through TX and probably even the LA Gulf Coast, so that means if there is anything in the Gulf. It's headed North then Northeast. Early call - just for fun - landfall around Jupiter with 2nd landfall around Indian Pass.

Having defeated 4 playoff teams from 2001 - including the Bucs - it's clear who the best team in the NFC is. After we dispose of Washington and San Francisco, there will be no doubt who rules the NFC South.

Steve


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Wed Oct 09 2002 09:31 AM
SHOWER KYLE

I think thunderstorm Kyle should be weakened to shower Kyle. Looks like it is headed towards Ft. Pierce on Thursday evening. I wonder if the NHC is keeping it as a depression just in case it reintensifies? 5 am discussion still mentions the possibility. Just don't see this thing doing anything.

Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Wed Oct 09 2002 01:14 PM
Re: SHOWER KYLE

Since we currently have the privilege of playing "what ifs", I think I would like to say"what if" Kyle were to get within a 100 miles of the Florida coast and stall again. This time he gets the needed moisture with a well stacked vertical placement and a tightly closed off center, and sits in the warmest pocket of moisture that the southern Atlantic has to offer this time of year, where no storm has gone before, during this season. WE go to bed on Wednesday night thinking Kyle is a used to was, and wake up and find SUPER-Kyle on Florida's south east coast making a Bee-line for FT Lauderdale or parts north. This is not wishcasting(disclaimer necessary) this is an intense fear of mine, since Kyle has been around so long, a lot of us forget he is there. I hope the NHC is as efficient on Kyle as they were on Isidore and Lilli.

Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Wed Oct 09 2002 01:54 PM
Re: SHOWER KYLE

I doubt it Mary, BUT lets see....Kyle was supposed to be fish food a week ago. Everyone here, including me, said Kyle was finished. He's hung in there, through A LOT of shear. So I am not counting Kyle out just yet. My prediction, Central Florida coast by Friday evening, Tropical Storm...


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