CFHC
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| Wed Oct 09 2002 02:19 PM |
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Kyle
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That Kyle will not go away! Now Tropical Depression Kyle is heading towards the Florida east coast. I don't think Kyle with get any stronger than a Tropical Storm before landfall, but we still need to watch it because Kyle has a history of doing his own thing.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [jc]
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Oct 09 2002 02:55 PM |
Re: Kyle
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After looking at the sats this morning, I agree with an earlier comment that he may be renamed "shower Kyle." Almost no convection.
| Jax Chris |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 09 2002 05:42 PM |
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Re: Kyle
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Yeah, I just looked at the images, and what miniscule convection there is isn't very organized. I'll be surprised if Kyle gets above Tropical Storm strength (if even that) before getting to Florida. The question remains, though, as to if Kyle can hold it together as a system and make it into the Gulf. If he does, will he strengthen to a Cat 5 and head towards Mobile?
It's been overcast and actually a bit hazy here all day (not associated with Kyle). I figure it's probably going to be a grey weekend in Jacksonville, but that's okay as: 1) I've got studying to do and would be inside all weekend anyway; 2) the Jaguars are on the road and the weather here won't affect their winning.
Chris
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Oct 09 2002 06:31 PM |
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Re: Kyle
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kyle should reach the east coast of florida, probably between melbourne and daytona, early friday. of course this is highly questionable.... since the nhc has mentioned that it might downgrade kyle to a remnant low this afternoon. convection would have to try and come back pretty soon, time is short.
if i told you prior to the season that two tropical systems would affect the east coast of florida, most of you would probably have pictured more than edouard and kyle, eh?
note: bastardi is still online and free (yaaay!), and has been speaking of west caribbean development late in the weekend or early next week. got me looking, at least.
HF 1830z09october
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Oct 09 2002 06:39 PM |
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Kyle's Folly
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chris in Jax,
Thanks for the Chuckle!!!
Probably won't even get any rain out of Kyle.
The Central and South Florida have had our anti storm force field up all season. Lived in Central Florida many many years. Only real storm to ever come through here was Donna. But, they're fun to track here in the no storm zone.
Go Buc's
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 09 2002 10:04 PM |
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Re: Kyle
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The NHC refuses to put the dagger into Kyle. He still makes me believe that, as bad as he looks, that he might still have just a little bit of juice left in him. I predict this based only on the fact that the infrared photo's at 5:30 showed a flash of convection right on the center. So I look at it this way: he'll be near or on Jacksonville by friday, very warm and undisturbed water, front stalled just to the north of him, Jags out of town.
33% chance he regain's TS
50% chance he remain's a TD
80% chance he causes enough weather to mess up my drive to or from, or both, work.
100% chance his hurricane days are over.
100% chance I will not be going to the Home Depot anytime soon.
Joe in Jax
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 09 2002 11:21 PM |
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Re: Kyle
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As of 7:15 pm, I, joepub1, declare the Kyle has reformed into Thunder Storm Kyle. He still has a heartbeat, ladies and gentlemen.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2002 11:32 PM |
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Re: Kyle
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Kyle is trying to make a comeback, but the question is the amount of time he has left. He is moving quickly WSW and may not have a lot of time to get this act together. The clouds are thickening some and there is a small area of moderate convection that has been expanding just east of the LLC. Kyle could really take a strong swing at becoming a minimal TS again if more convection develops. I said yesterday a moderate TS to minimal hurricane at landfall because I thought the convection would actually persist, but this hasn't occured as I had expected. Florida can expect breezy conditions with Kyle. If he redevelops more convection, very heavy rainfall in large amounts would be possible. Not a threatening situation unless a big intensification phase gets underway. The air is likely to dry and stable for that too occur.
Joe B. (wishcaster at times) will be watching the W. Caribbean next week for development of a hybrid storm. E GOM would be likely target for any system, but I won't say much about this until a low cuts off of a frontal tail and I see semi-favorable conditions. All of this may be occuring by the time I get home from vacation (Thursday or Friday).
TS/STS Marco threatening Florida by late next week? Lets throw this idea around some.
I'll add this: We also need to see pressure falls in order to see windspeeds increase with Kyle. That could an inhibiting factor.
Kevin
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2002 11:33 PM |
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Kyle
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I agree Joe on the upgrade back to Thunderstorm Kyle, I originally downgraded it at 5 am to Shower Kyle. It does have A Thunderstorm back.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Oct 09 2002 11:36 PM |
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Re:I FOUND IT!
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2 days ago I was warned of a tropical storm headed for my area. Tonight as I began my preperations to weather this storm , the first in our area in a number of years I began to search the satellites and low and behold there it was like a beacon in the Atlantic preparing to bring flooding rains and high winds to our area just as those highly accurate meteorologists in West palm Beach have been saying. I then turned to the forecast track and once again found that I would miss this devastating weather event . In hopes there was an error I turned to Bastardi- no updates nor warnings were noted. I then checked Millenium and found no hope for a resurrection there. East coast tropical had nothing either . I guess I'll head to bed early tonight but with a plan to check on that little beacon later, You just never know.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Oct 09 2002 11:37 PM |
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Re:I FOUND IT!
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2 days ago I was warned of a tropical storm headed for my area. Tonight as I began my preperations to weather this storm , the first in our area in a number of years I began to search the satellites and low and behold there it was like a beacon in the Atlantic preparing to bring flooding rains and high winds to our area just as those highly accurate meteorologists in West palm Beach have been saying. I then turned to the forecast track and once again found that I would miss this devastating weather event once again. In hopes there was an error I turned to Bastardi- no updates nor warnings were noted. I then checked Millenium and found no hope for a resurrection there. East coast tropical had nothing either . I guess I'll head to bed early tonight but with a plan to check on that little beacon later, You just never know.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2002 11:49 PM |
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KYLE
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Buoy 120 miles east of Cape Canaveral has sustained winds at 18 knots gusting to 21 knots. Waves are 8 feet and water temperature is 83 degrees. Something is actually out there.
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Oct 10 2002 12:04 AM |
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Re: Kyle
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Although my eyes have begun to tire I have learned from satellite pictures over the last hour that Kyle has doubled itself in convection. As this continues through tommorrow Kyle will have grown to a monster category 5 storm covering an area 600 miles in diameter. I'll be watching closely for the first evacuation orders for the whole east coast of Florida by midnight and fully expect to be wakened out of my sleep by police sirens warning me to get out of the state as they drive thru the neighborhoods . Sorry for the double post earlier but I bet some people began to come back to the site when they saw all the new posts becoming suspicious that a big event is coming..
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 12:21 AM |
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Re: Kyle
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Looks like Kyles thunderstorm is showing up on Melbournes Long Range radar loop. Might get a trace of rain from him after its all over.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 12:33 AM |
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interesting
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either this is a good fake or the rebuilding trend has started. kyle has a couple more thunderstorm cells starting on the cloud bands at this time. might make it interesting after all.
HF 0032z10october
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 12:52 AM |
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Re: interesting
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I'm begining to think Thunder Storm Kyle has had his feelings hurt by those of us in Florida. Thunder Storm Kyle is starting to show a little convection to his northwest, of all places, much like Lili did after she was called a wave by the NHC. Could we end up with a weather maker afterall?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 12:53 AM |
Re: Kyle
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...and I said that "Thunderstorm" Kyle would come right over my house in Longwood, FL (NW of Orlando). Judging from the latest sat pix, I may be in for a little more than that. He won't make it to TS though.
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Oct 10 2002 01:09 AM |
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Re: Kyle
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A green spot has developed on the NRL site indicative of rapid stregthening beginning. I expect renaming and upgrading to hurricane status by the 11pm advisory. It may also be relocating as the green spot is below 28 degrees
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Oct 10 2002 01:54 AM |
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Re: Kyle
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C'mon Dave Stuart - Hurricane by 11:00 pm. You have got to be kidding????
I just saw the latest at NRL (0109Z on 10/10) and I see some strengthening but this dog is nothing still. Not enough room to expode into a 'cane.
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Oct 10 2002 03:01 AM |
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Re: Kyle
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That was Stuart's attempt at sarcasm. Never fear though, since Kyle is refiring the Cape Canaveral/KSC area has put up the Florida storm deflector shield, and guidance now has him turning NW and avoiding a landfall in Florida....imagine that. Now it probably will reach hurricane status. Seriously though, Kyle is moving a bit faster than the NHC is showing on the 11pm advisory, and it's actually amazing that he's firing convection in such dry air...it's coming right off the warm water. He may make it to 45 knots befoe approaching the east coast, but probably the east coast of GA. Cheers! Steve H.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 03:18 AM |
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Kyle goes for 6th place
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The NHC is to the point now that their singing Bee Gee's songs and seeing drum-playing bunnies in their sleep. Is this what the world is coming to?
At 5am Kyle becomes the 6th longest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin. We here in Jacksonville (at least myself) will stand outside and brave his powerfull, leaf-bending, 25 MPH winds to welcome him ashore if he decides to do it here in lovely NE Florida. I will be truely in awe if would bring us some much-needed rain, and some relief to the summer that just won't end. There is no need for him to go north and pound all those unsuspecting poor souls in Georgia, as I know they could not be nearly as prepared as we are here in Jacksonville.
Thunder Storm Kyle continues to show repeated powerful bursts of convection that should provide more than enough energy to maintain his leaf-bending 25MPH winds. It will be interesting to see what he does when he gets into the true gulf stream waters and rides the coast for a while, for the air is not nearly as dry up here. If the NHC starts playing the Rocky tune, I will more than likely change my tune.
My 11pm update:
50% Kyle makes TS
100% Kyle maintains TD
0% Kyle makes hurricane
25% Kyle makes landfall in my backyard
0% I make a trip to Home Depot
Joe in Jax
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 04:18 AM |
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Kyle
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Will I get my golf game in on Friday?
I'm in Central Florida.
Hey, I believe in the Kennedy Space Center Storm Shield.
It has worked for years and years and years.
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Oct 10 2002 04:23 AM |
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Re: Kyle
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Has anyone else noticed the rotation near eastern Cuba? Does anyone know what the likelyhood of development there?
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Oct 10 2002 04:31 AM |
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Kyle...
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Actually hasn't looked better on IR in at least 48 hours. Does anyone disagree with NHC's forecast track (11pm) as much as I do? NOGAPS is the only model talking quick recurvature, but that's actually on the Peninsula. It's not going to turn out that way. I'm going with a 15% chance of seeing some precip from Kyle before he's outta here. I still like my dual landfall scenario in the same spots.
Oh yeah. Little note in Isidore. Remember when he was near the Isle of Youth and I said that the historical tracks were all going to be off and that Isidore would be making his own track? Final writeup is availble at the NWS BR/NO home page.
Steve
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 11:55 AM |
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Re: Kyle...
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looking fine this AM, TS Sometime today?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 12:44 PM |
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Re: Kyle...
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Expect tropical storm watch or warning to go up along the east coast of Florida somewhere. Kyle is trying to crank. Convection quickly building over the center; warm GS waters. H'es steeping up....wil he step out and make the hard right turn??? BTW, models this morning are showing the western caribbean developing low pressure in 120 hours. Need to watch this area!! MM5-135 has a developing hurricane over, you guessed it, Western Cuba, wanting to come NNE. First Kyle though. If he wraps tighter and stays on his course too much longer (260 - 270) he'll make landfall in northern Brevard county. If he makes the turn, then up towards St. Augustine/JAX. Interesting to watch, he's blowing up big time with convection, and in just the past 4 hours. Cheers!! Steve H.
| Jax Chris |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 12:46 PM |
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Re: Kyle...
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I don't know; I think it's going to be pretty iffy for Kyle to make it back to a Tropical Storm today. Looking at the water vapor image, he's pretty much surrounded by dryer air in the direction that he currently wants to go, so I think it's going to be difficult for him to get much more convection. I'm with joepub1; watch the Jaguars on TV, run out for beer but no need for plywood.
Chris
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 01:14 PM |
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Kyle
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I stepped away from the computer for 2 hours and this thing is exploding. WATCH OUT!!! Kyle has done many unexpected things already!!!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 01:24 PM |
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kyle, day 20
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getting pretty far up the list for active storms.. if kyle begins recurving offshore it could be around for a few more days. convection this morning is back to a degree where kyle wont be dissipating, and may start to reintensify. as kyle curves northward and phases in ahead of an approaching shortwave, there could very will be baroclinic deepening. i'd say chances are better than even that kyle reintensifies to a tropical storm.
track is tricky, as if the storm continues westward much longer it will run over land and not reintensify. the majority of model turns kyle offshore, quite close to the space coast, and keeps the center within 25-50 miles of the ne florida and georgia coasts.. taking it inland between hilton head and cape romain in about 48hr. have a feeling we may get t.s. watches posted in this area during the next couple of advisories. there is enough convection back to term it a 'partial cdo'.. as kyle slows down and recurves this will likely increase in coverage. we get recon in this afternoon to tell us for certain, but i'd be willing to bet the storm is strengthening. call right now: tropical storm conditions near the coast from daytona to myrtle beach during the next 72hr.
HF 1324z10october
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 01:49 PM |
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oh come on now...get a grip...
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Its not exactly exploding.. its alive.. it's kicking but its not nearly exploding.. Kyle and its constant misplaced covective blob is alive and well and not dying.
Think the front will catch it and hope it and the front live happily ever after and it hits land with a name..
All this work for nothing would be depressing.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 02:42 PM |
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TS Watch issued for Florida east Coast
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1100 10/10-
Cocoa Bch to Brunswick. Official forcast only takes Kyle to 35 mph, but they are hedging their bets.
Can the Rocky theme be far behind?
IHS,
Bill
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 02:45 PM |
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Re: Kyle on radar
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CAn see first of the bands that are so visible on the visible now coming onshore ahead of Kyle's center on radar.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 02:54 PM |
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TS watch.. lol always loved Kyle
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Sort of the type of the kid that hung down at the end of the block always waving hello, stopping for a minute to say hello, watching with a mischevous smile that sort of hinted of things promised, just maybe... what a riot. Just won't die. Sort of like that kid song.. And, the cat came back, each and every day..
Well.. seems he's getting awful close and the wv loop makes it hard to believe he'll pull back just before landfall and swirl at sea a bit more..
Either way on TWC IR it does show its best face.. first time in days it has looked so good on IR. Have to tell you.. looks like a tropical storm on WV.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 03:15 PM |
Re: Kyle...
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Good call steve-o!
IHS,
Bill
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 10 2002 04:09 PM |
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Re: Kyle...
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Remember everyone along the mid central and south florida coastline when you get those clouds and possible rain from Kyle to the north it is NOT Kyle..NOT the CDO but it is called Cirrus Blow off. That's what they called it on TWC this morning and since that "cirrus blow off" has often been there and at times blown up into tstorms I don't want anyone screaming they got Kyle when it was just that cirrus blow off stuff.
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Oct 10 2002 04:21 PM |
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Re: Kyle...
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/agree Lois. Last images are showing another blowup to the east of the center, and some banding to the NW near the Florida coast, but still very exposed, rapidly moving center. All the clouds and dying showers to the south are just blowoff, like Lois said. The kicker? This thing is not going to hit Florida...and my prediction? It goes back out to sea. Hahaha. Would that not be soo appropriate for this storm? I am watching the western carrib. as well this weekend. Something is gonna brew down there. And what about the tail of the front coming off Texas? The waters too churned up there?
A poster before also mentioned a swirl near Cuba....I am noticing one as well...near Jamaica. Anyone else lookin'? And some of the models are having the wave comin off Africa develop as well....
Could be a busy week next week.
Brett
Miami
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Nov 14 2002 05:50 PM |
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Re: Kyle
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kyle is my name!!!!