(Weather Guru)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:18 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Hows this for a prediction. Cat 1 off of the coast of Texas/La in around 5 days.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:31 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

There is also the possibility that the trough moving into the east coast could weaken the ridge enough to have it move northward. That all depends on her latitude when she passes Jamaica IMO. Jury will convene I'm sure during the next few days. Now for the tracking ffun before someone needs to get concerned. Cheers!!

Cycloneye

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:37 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

My thinking is that Claudette will be a Texas problem but many things can happen with the ridges and (ULL'S) that the track is uncertain after day 4.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:38 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Joe B. put out an interesting 3:45 update. Of course I'm not going to post it

, but he cautioned Gulf Coasters from Mobile Westward to pay close heed. He also (as I posted myself earlier) thinks it could be a healthy hurricane down the line.

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:39 PM

claudette a beauty

find her beautiful to watch unfold these last few hours..

really incredibly beautiful

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:41 PM

agree on the healthy hurricane possibility

has the look of a system that once wound up will really go for it

(Weather Guru)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:42 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

i just tried to pull up the models from wrel's link and it has a note on it that says he is gone to boy scout camp. Perfect timing wouldnt you say?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:45 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Gary,

Go to netwaves.net or do a google search for Wright Weather. You can get the tracks and plots from both those sites.

Steve

(Weather Guru)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:47 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Thanks steve!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:50 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Here are the links:

http://www.net-waves.net/weather/td04.php

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/gfdl/tracks/

Steve

(British Meteorologist)

Tue Jul 08 2003 05:51 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Been out all day and look what i come home too!

She certainly looks impressive on satellite, with a growing area of central deep convection, and excellent outflow. My gut feeling is that we will see a hurricane within the next 24 hours, if not within the next 12. As far as track goes, i am in good agreement with NHC's forecast... taking her across the Yucatan and into the Gulf. I think we may see more of a northerly turn and an evantual landfall on the US gulf coast... but it is way to early to say where, when, and how strong!

Anyway, will post as often as i can

Regards,

(Moderator)

Tue Jul 08 2003 06:31 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Yes it is too early to tell, but there some things that could change the MX/TX strike. I don't rule out anywhere in the gulf coast, including FL.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Jul 08 2003 07:06 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Hey everyone...I was watchin the Tropical Update on TWC and Dr. Lyon's said the stronger the storm..the farther north the track will be. The weaker the storm the farther south it'll stay. Is that the case with this storm or is it too early to tell? All i know is the gulf states dont need another storm right now. I think tomorrow will give us a better idea of where the storm will be heading. I'll say it'll be a hurricane in 30 hours.

(Moderator)

Tue Jul 08 2003 07:10 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

A question: could Claudette's forward speed at 29mph tear her apart or is she suppossed to slow down?

Bill: Glad you liked the birth announcement
Frank: I probably should be in Witness Protection Plan.

Gary: We've been doing this a LONG LONG LONG TIME! 4-5 years!

Oh yeah, one more thing Gary: don't discount the models just yet....we did that all last year and they were ---for the most part---all correct.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Jul 08 2003 07:36 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Historically (look at Weather Underground) the storms in this area have gone west...now, having said that, realize what a small piece of history we have seen, and....the more the storm moves north, the more likely climatology will NOT be the determinant factor. How many storms have we seen in the last fews years that bucked climo?

MOST storms that have developed like this...ie, lower latitude, moving quickly, have become very formidanble storms indeed! We will see....

IHS,

Bill

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Jul 08 2003 07:42 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Mind you, I am only a hobbyist, but I have been watching hurricanes for a long time and I don't recall a storm looking so impressive but taking so long to become classified. I read some of the post the last few days and I am with them that the NHC might have been waiting for the recon "smoking gun". As I understand it, the stronger the storm, the more it becomes embedded in the upper air flow. At least thats how I remember it. I welcome the more knowledgeable to correct me if I am getting it wrong.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Jul 08 2003 07:51 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Droop this storm puzzles me. You have an ULL to the west and a trough due to move into the east by Friday. Doesn't sound like MX/TX to me, but we've said that before. When a cyclone strengthens it becomes like a spinning top ; the faster it spins, the more easily influenced it is by the steering around it, like hitting the top with a string it changes direction with ease. That's the principle that Dr. Lyons is referring to (I assume, cause I didn't hear it). But there certainly are other factors. Right now we have to see how much of a northerly component it will have during the next 48 hours. Should it reach 20N by Thursday, it will more likely have a chance to be influenced by the trough/any weakness in the ridge. Hard to say right now, but I feel a bit uneasy about it even here in central Florida. Odds are that it will stay below that latitude through 72 hours. Even so, what happens after that is still up for grabs as the steering currents may be weaker. Let's face it, she hasn't had a chance with the strong easterly flow, but that won't last forever. I see her slowing in the next 24 -36 hours. Time to watch. And its only July 8th. Cheers!!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Jul 08 2003 08:03 PM

Re: claudette a beauty

I agree Lois. The last few visibles looked awesome. Claudette has that look like she wants to give it a go. Forward speed and maybe land should be her biggest tests. You have to admire how she's come together moving 25-29 MPH.

Something keeps telling me to take this storm seriously. If things break right, Claudette's got a shot at becoming a Cat 2 or 3 (= somebody could pay). Everyone pay attention to this one.

Steve

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Jul 08 2003 08:08 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

She looks to be gaining strength. Although what happens in the short term. Theres an upper level trough just to the west of Claudette. Winds running from southwest at 20-30 kts. This is already having it's effects on the far western side where storms have waned. If she slowed down some this probably wouldn't be a problem. The upper low to the northwest is slowly pulling out. So don't be surprised if theres some intensification tonight, then possibly weakening some tomorrow. Time will only tell, but conditions will improve as it enters western Caribbean.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Jul 08 2003 08:26 PM

VORTEX

URNT12 KNHC 082340
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/2342Z
B. 15 DEG 01 MIN N
72 DEG 02 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 032 DEG 041 NM
F. 097 DEG 62 KT
G. 040 DEG 032 NM
H. EXTRAP 1003 MB
I. 22 C/ 470 M
J. 23 C/ 462 M
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 145/1
O. 0.1/ 5 NM
P. AF968 0304A CLAUDETTE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 62 KT N QUAD 2328Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT. SOME
BNDNG ON RADAR, BUT NOT CONSISTNT W/FLT LVL FIX. ALSO, WNDS IN
SW QUAD INDICATE AS MUCH OPEN WAVE CHARACTER AS CLSD CNTR.

;

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Jul 08 2003 08:27 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Going to be interesting indeed!

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Jul 08 2003 08:32 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Recon recorded a flight wind of 62kts, and pressure 1003mb a short time ago and are still investigating... Although the estimated surface wind is 40kts which would equal 46 mph.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Jul 08 2003 08:58 PM

Re: VORTEX

"ALSO, WNDS IN
SW QUAD INDICATE AS MUCH OPEN WAVE CHARACTER AS CLSD CNTR"

Could this be from her forward speed. Interesting case study for future MET students; a storm that look so organized on sat images but recon info not reflecting (to a degree we would like

) what sat images show.

If her forward speed is impeding her, watch out when she slows down!

(Weather Master)

Tue Jul 08 2003 09:09 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Love the birth announcement ! (LOL) Hope you are feeling better, good to see you posting again. Looks like a busy time the next few days.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue Jul 08 2003 09:24 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

The 5 day forecast is pretty much an average of the latest model runs and takes Claudette on a bee line to Lower Texas... Lets all remember this to see IF it comes to fruition.... I'm not sure if I buy this yet, but climatelogically speaking, west is best for this track..

They do have it slowing down somewhat the last two days out, but on this track, something drastic is going to have to happen for this to be a Florida event, or even Central/Eastern Gulf Coast event... Models have performed crappy thus far this season, but now with a developing system, and with some good initialization, maybe they'll be more successful...

If you believe in models, then everybody east of Tx/LA line should be OK.... I'm not ready to write off the Central Gulf Coast just yet, but she keeps on this rapid track to the west, then odds are increaing that she's might be a TX storm.. time will tell...

You would think the large ULL off to the west might influence the system to move a little more off to the north, and that could also affect her strengthening much more than she has... I don't think it will really crank up to more than a Cat 1, if that, until she slows down and enters the GOM... but heck if I could really predict the weather, think I'd be writing this post.. NOT... hehe

This should be a very interesting system to watch...

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue Jul 08 2003 09:31 PM

One more thing

Monitor how close Claudette gets to Jamaca. If she takes a path close to Jamaca (just south of the island) then she is following the model that takes her more towards the south central GOM, which would affect the nothern Gulf Coast and places eastward... The farther south she tracks from Jamaca, the more westerly path she is taking and a more impact to TX/MX...

(Moderator)

Tue Jul 08 2003 09:34 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

OK. Here is my take as of now. If I end up close someone remember me! The models are splitting once the GOM comes up ( tropic models ). We know this may be due to the possible events coming down the US. The Global models ( some ) relax the high over the Eastern US. If C would slow some it could be the big of the biggest we have seen! What is in its way except itself? I as of now would focus on a LA/MS strike... as of now! I really feel this will shift east as time goes on. Talk about it

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue Jul 08 2003 09:46 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Hey Coop, your guess is as good as anybody's right now... I just don't want it to be right... not the MS/LA line at least... watching the latest IR she gives the impression of some minor elongation on a north/south axis... sometimes when systems get elongated in a certain axis like this it might mean she might be pulling a little more to the north... however, this is not always the case... I really don't think anyone really knows exactly where she'll go.... we all are influenced by the models, even though they're wrong a majority of the time.... going to watch TWC and the good Dr. Lyons to hear his thoughts on the system..

JustMe

(Weather Guru)

Tue Jul 08 2003 09:48 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

I am a little concerned at ths storm being so early and seems to be gainning strength so quickly

I am going to wait and watch with this one ..
anything goes not willing to put a destination yet

Texas to Florida ...... Keep your ears and eyes open
Pay ATTENTION

(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)

Tue Jul 08 2003 10:02 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Read all of your posts today with keen interest - and good ones they were! I can read them at work, but cannot respond from work (government system). Great poetry, humor, links, and even some scientific thought

- this site has it all! I've thrown in my guesswork on the Storm Forum.
Cheers,
ED

Robert

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Jul 08 2003 10:07 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Claudette was born 2 days ago, then had a lack of south westerly inflow due to proximity to south america in the eastern carribean then got it back as it gained latitude. Thats why the eastern carribean is called the hurricane grave yard it ussally has dryer air due to high altidude mountains in venezuala plus that same feature creates a blocking of southerly inflow, and i will take that thinking to my grave. Aside from that she is beutifull on sattelite very impressive. I belive she will hit or scrape bye the NE yucatan from there who knows where she goes. As far as intensity goes she wants to go all the way but we have to see if mother nature will let her.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Jul 08 2003 10:26 PM

New Vortex Msg

URNT12 KNHC 090127
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0127Z
B. 15 DEG 02 MIN N
72 DEG 43 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA KT
E. DEG NM
F. 173 DEG 40 KT
G. 023 DEG 006 NM
H. EXTRAP 1000 MB
I. 24 C/ 406 M
J. 24 C/ 424 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234/1
O. 0.5/ 3 NM
P. AF968 0304A CLAUDETTE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 55 KT NW QUAD 0125Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
RADAR PRESENTATION SLOWLY ALIGNING W/FL CNTR. SW COMPONENT
STRONGER BUT STILL SMALL IN SCOPE.

Pressure down 3 millibars in about 2hrs. Thats a pretty healthy drop.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Jul 08 2003 10:53 PM

Re: New Vortex Msg

now up to 65 mph.

(Moderator)

Tue Jul 08 2003 11:00 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Hey Dr Lyons is great, sure miss John Hope, a great fellow who forgot more that most of us could ever know ! One thing I noticed about this is after the NHC made it " offical " with its semi sad/sarcastic STDS, the TWC sounds like they wait on them more than they did before. I guess I am saying just tell it how you see it. This is one reason contract sources become popular over government! Don't be suprised if the NHC will kill it and bring it back a time or two. Anyway a guess it is but I think "C" will make a mark somewhere... if not already somewhere in history.Hey had to break for a call and Dr. Lyons... up to 65 mph now!!

Robert

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Jul 08 2003 11:01 PM

am Im Seeing Things please verify

Look At nasa Goes Zoomed in on infared or water vapor there appeers to a ragged eye wobbling along west at 15N and when you do the loop you can track it the last 10 or 15 frames.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Jul 08 2003 11:13 PM

Africa

Looking at the Infra Red of Africa
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF a nice area of convection with what apears to be a circulation-
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7.GIF

surface plots http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif show a 1002 low! just north of this area of conection. If the plot was wrong and these two are one an dthe same we miht have another system to watch in a few days.

Now with Claudette SAL levels http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal-atl.html have been moderate across most of the tropics which may have been inhibiting development of some of the waves moving across the Atlantic. Claudette once in the gulf should be clear of any of this dry dusty air and may strengthen much faster.

Regardless, an interesting read on the SAL can be found on the link above

(Weather Master)

Tue Jul 08 2003 11:21 PM

FIRST U.S. HURRICANE OF 2003?????

My prediction is that we will see our first U.S. Hurricane landfall of 2003 along the gulf coast next week. Everyone from Tampa to Brownsville will need to stay alert.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Jul 08 2003 11:36 PM

Re: FIRST U.S. HURRICANE OF 2003?????

looking back at Lil http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archive/2002/storms/lili/lili.html
and Isidore http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archive/2002/storms/isidore/isidore.html
they both were on similar paths as Claudette and made that big right turn. Of course they were both later in the year when stronger trofs are able to dig deeper.

just throwing out some discussion ideas

HanKFranK

(User)

Tue Jul 08 2003 11:46 PM

Re: FIRST U.S. HURRICANE OF 2003?????

two possibilities now in my mind:
A) claudette keeps racing and never gets much more organized.. or in fact weakens.. hits central america on thursday/friday... 20% chance
B) claudette slows and begins to turn up.. intensifying over time into something troublesome.. 80% chance
a lot of the model runs fix claudette as a weaker system.. one which would naturally continue to race westward. our storm is intensifying and acquiring solid vertical structure to go with its impressive appearance. this suggests that deep layer steering currents will begin affecting claudette very soon and bring the storm more northward.. this paired with the forecast weakening of the ridge.
the possibilites from there will of course include all of those little saving graces that have time and again spared our coastline in recent years.. shear, dry air entrainment, strange side effects of the yucatan (think isidore),... perhaps even a dogged westward motion will persist and make claudette yet another caribbean threat which fails to materialize into a u.s. one. hell, maybe it will play possum and go backwards across the caribbean like lenny a few years ago.
however, if that 5 day nhc track has any merit, it's going to be an interesting time around july 15-16.
HF 0446z09july

Rad

(Weather Guru)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:06 AM

Re: FIRST U.S. HURRICANE OF 2003?????

Yucatan >>>> STRAIGHT OUT THE DOOR .. >>>C _YA !!!!

(Weather Master)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:18 AM

Re: FIRST U.S. HURRICANE OF 2003?????

Good solid reasoning HankFrank, also the global model runs that I have seen are to far south of the actual coordinates. That messes up the whole runs right there. The tropical models are more on the ball and is more believable. This system should clear or barley tip the yuc and curve on up into the GOM. BTW, thanks for the laugh, it's been a long day!

(Moderator)

Wed Jul 09 2003 05:14 AM

Re: FIRST U.S. HURRICANE OF 2003?????

Anyone have an idea of MSW for Mid Gulf Coast landfall?

(British Meteorologist)

Wed Jul 09 2003 05:30 AM

Mutiple centres?

Just had a quick look at the IR loop, and obviously it shows the two main areas of deep convection. There is what seems to be a CDO feature coming and going near where the NHC have placed the official centre for Claudette. However, i think i see a hint of a similiar feature in the second area of deep convection to the NE of the current 'centre'. This would also be nearer where flight winds of 85 knots were reported earlier today. Does anyone think we may have a storm with possible multiple centres? or maybe that the centre may reform in the larger area of deep convection?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 07:40 AM

Re: Mutiple centres?

Not sure Richard. She's struggling a bit with the ULL to her west. At first I thought she was "dumbelling" around the center. However, the stronger convection is NE of the "center." Would be interesting if she weakened and moved NW around the periphery of the ULL, then re-strengthened. that would put Florida/Keys under the gun. Will wait for visible sat pix. Cheers!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 07:52 AM

Re: Mutiple centres?

Not sure what to make of Claudette this morning. IR's indicate a split system, but WV shows the energy refiring around piece in front moving west. It looks like Claudette is outrunning the favorable upper support she had yesterday with her western side getting sheared by the ULL south of Cuba. Surprisingly (to me), 3 day implications could yield a Central American landfall afterall. That looked to be the case when the global models weren't initializing the storm well, but a Yucatan or Yucatan Channel track eventually seeemed to be winning out. I'm going to hold off another day or so before making my call.

NHC likes the continued westerly track for 24 hours followed by a turn more WNW and slowing of the system. Their guidance would indicate an upper TX/SW LA landfall. I'm not sure I'm buying into that, but it's still more plausible than an eventual AL or Florida landfall. One thing I'd add is if Claudette does eventually favor a more westerly track (and it's not set in stone by any stretch), the next wave showing signs of life could take a WNW path and threaten the US Coast with whatever it's got.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 08:08 AM

Re: Mutiple centres?

Ok the center is 15.3 north in 76.9 west that would put it with in the new area of convetion forming this morning in the last few satellite shots of the goes satellites. So reformation is very likely in we maybe looking at a hurricane by tonight if the shear levels keep backing off like the 8:05 update says it has been backing off. We will see if this new flare up can hold...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 08:50 AM

Re: Mutiple centres?

Looking at the first vis shots, it looks like the center has certainly moved out from under the convection (west). Looks like it is outrunning the convection. Also just checked Joe Bastardi's comments...he thinks the system is a goner and will be reduced to a wave by later today!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 08:58 AM

I agree

Hi all, interestingly, the NHC 5 day forecast has a pronounced turn to the north at the end of the forecast period...

Looking at the latest vis loop she doesn’t look at that great on its western side with little or no convection. You can barely discern the LLC on the vis and it looks really exposed on about 40% of it. However, that being said, deep convection appears to be firing off to its north and east… so I doubt any real strengthening will occur today…

Until we get convection on all sides Claudette will not strengthen much more that she has to date…. Huge ULL off to the west certainly inhibiting any real development at the present time.

Climatologically speaking, 60% of previous storms passing within 65 miles of her track have impacted anywhere from Mid Texas to Fort Walton Florida area. The other two went in Cent Am… so I’d assume we have at least a 60% chance of the system getting into the GOM… climatologically speaking of course

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/04LHST.html

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 08:58 AM

Re: Mutiple centres?

Looking at the water vapor this morning, Claudette seems to be barreling right into the upper low. This UL looks better defined this morning than it did yesterday. If this trend continues, I think you'll see the storm weaken considerably today. And as was mentioned before, a weaker system is more likely to stay on a westward course. I remember reading in THE HURRICANE AND ITS IMPACT that full huricanes have been destroyed by moving directly into these upper lows. Do ya'll think this might be the fate of Claudette?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 09:06 AM

Recon found a center, Latest Vortex msg

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1224Z
B. 15 DEG 23 MIN N
76 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1460 M
D. 50 KT
E. 048 DEG 067 NM
F. 096 DEG 59 KT
G. 050 DEG 046 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 16 C/ 1533 M
J. 21 C/ 1531 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1 /2 NM
P. AF967 0404A CLAUDETTE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 59 KT N QUAD 1211Z.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:05 AM

Reformation

Two Comments on the current situation:

1. Claudette appears in the last hour or so to be regining a little of her form from yesterday. At least a nice little ball of convection is forming very near the center (All off to the NE of the official center)

2.. I beleive it is possible that she is reforming a little NE of her official location.

Thoughts and comments. Also, Jason Kelley, Where are you?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:18 AM

Re: Reformation

It does seem to be tucking in under the convection during the last few hours. Maybe the environment is starting to slowly improve.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:18 AM

Re: Reformation

The water vapor shows it best. It looks like Claudette has a 24 hour battle ahead of her. If she survives the encounter, it will be interesting to see how the NHC forecast scenario plays out. Claudette center could be farther north and east if alot of center reforming occurs.
It maybe premature to look at Gulfcoast threats until we see if Claudette survives and where the center is come tomorrow noon-time.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:42 AM

Re: Reformation

Take a look at this Nogaps run.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2003070900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Has it hitting the LA/MS border.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:43 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

last set of cor. show a definite slowdown in forward progress.nhc uses something like the last 9hrs averaged together to compute speed i believe.last thre hrs. movement is 14.6mph.slowdowns usually mean a change in direction is about to happen. NW jog coming?i agree ull out front is problem but looks to be moving out out quicker than C movement forward now maybe.the ull depending on its west moement and how far it moves could be a closed door to the west and a push north.the next 12 - 24 hrs i think the models will change.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:59 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Latest Vortex message has the center at 15.6 77.63 with a 1001mb pressures down 3 mb. Does look to be slowing fairly significantly according to coordinates. and turning more wnw.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:59 AM

newest nogaps

thanks..wow..
ok... so thats intersting, really interesting...have to watch how it plays out

really dont think anyone should write off this storm because of short term variations, it is holding tight at what i would consider less than minimal conditions for it being here at all..

and seems to take the hits and keep going.. seems to roll with the punches the ull and strong shear is shooting at it..

all previous model runs showed a much stronger high not collapsing...

think if and when this storm gets up into the gulf it could be one to remember

claudette from the caribbean

watching.. love it
bobbi

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:11 PM

Re: newest nogaps

Here's the message:

126
URNT12 KNHC 091507
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1507Z
B. 15 DEG 36 MIN N
77 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1435 M
D. 15 KT
E. 218 DEG 102 NM
F. 047 DEG 31 KT
G. 287 DEG 003 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 18 C/ 1532 M
J. 21 C/ 1538 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1 /1 NM
P. AF967 0404A CLAUDETTE OB 19
MAX FL WIND 59 KT NE QUAD 1211Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:18 PM

Re: Reformation

I'm here...but out of pocket right now, so no time for analysis...I'll do a full post this afternoon...I have some thoughts..

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:21 PM

Re: newest nogaps

click on this site and scroll down to Recon Vortex Decode and you will see the new location and pressure.
http://www.net-waves.net/weather/td04.php

Justin in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:26 PM

Re: newest nogaps

She does not look good on sat loops

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:30 PM

Re: newest nogaps

Also, if you look at the weather forecast for Melbourne, the forecaster talks about the high pressure that has kept Florida hot and dry for the past few days is breaking down. This is the same high pressure ridge that was driving Claudette west.
"A WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND LYING ALONG
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO NE FL COAST HAS WEAKENED THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
LESS OF A FEATURE.
This breakdown seems quicker than was the thought before.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:32 PM

Re: Reformation

Hello all:
Based on the numbers it does not seem reformation is in process now. Visible would place the center on the extreme SW of the cloud mass, and plotting the coordinates confirms that. The cloud mass is being sheared from SW and that looks like it will continue...Joe B in his report said it is outrunning itself...speed in this instance kills...if the center were only 100 mile NE it would be getting all the benefits of the ULL evacuating it and could be growing...where it is now it is fighting. If it is to survive it must get down to 15mph forward motion or so and reform convection near the center...if the center outruns the convection ...it will not make it much further. EDS.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:40 PM

Re: Reformation

Agreed....But, I beleive the slow down is occuring. Looking at the data from the past advisories, she has averaged moving west 1.3 degrees each advisory. This past advisory, that was down to .7 degrees. Nearly half. Now I don't beleiv she has slowed that significantly, but the numbers do indicate a slight decrease in forward speed.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:40 PM

Re: Reformation

one more thing Bastardi also answered a question I had about the number of storms in the 1st week of July that formed in the eastern carribean and actually made it up past 25N...answer none. In fact he mentioned only 2 had ever formed there previously in this time frame and they both went west. IF (big if) Claudette survives it looks to be a Yucatan/ Mexico storm to me. It would have to be at 17.5-18 and 82 to 85 to be a threat to the GOM , in my opinion, and that will not happen unless it stops and turns on a dime., Cheers! EDS.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:43 PM

Re: Reformation

Have you looked at the forecast from the NHC? 17.6 83.8 Apparently they beleive that turn will occur.

(Weather Master)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:47 PM

Re: newest nogaps

Claudette is looking like a troubled TS with the center just inside the ccd but at times slightly exposed to the wsw. Currently in most systems the pressure fluctuates as it gets influenced from many varibles in the enviroment, right now the only thing keeping her together is the very warm ssts. The upper low to its w is helping the eastern exhaust of the system and helping the activity.
Bill was easy for us, this one might be slightly more interesting in the near term. The upper low isnt falling apart as fast as projected though is slowly. This will keep claudette from becoming a hurricane in the next 24 hours or so. As the upper low becomes a trough over central america, claudette should get under a better environment ( though not as good as some forcast) and become a hurricane near Cozumel in the next day or 2. Her speed in direction (wnw-nw at times) should be down to around 12-15 mph by Friday nearing the Yucitan coast. A trough coming down the eastern U.S. should lay out to E of 85W and above 25N. Due to claudette being too far south from there she will continue wnw and then become a threat to texas by Monday or Tuesday as a minimul hurricane.
No one in around the gulf from Fla-La should take this into granted as she could turn alittle more nw or nnw and get influenced more by the eastern US trough.
I cant say this is my forcast obviously cause things do change, but this is a first glance. I will update later tonight or on Thurs. scottsvb

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 12:55 PM

Re: newest nogaps

I think that Claudette just disemboweled herself!! I don't see anything left of the LLCC but a shredded bit of scraggly clouds. Unless there is something left under the convection somewhere. But it looks to me like she's gone. If so, let's see if this wave can spawn a new LLCC if it gets to the GOM. Am I way off on this assessment?? I just don't see anything left of her. Maybe time to look to the Atlantioc again. Cheers!!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:06 PM

maybe, maybe not

Does look rather ragged at the moment doesn't she. I am going to prematurely speculate that the LLC is reforming more off to the north and west... and I think it still does have an LLC... From what I can detect off the latest vis sat loop I think we have an LLC but it is in the process of relocating. Maybe I'm wrong but that my impression looking at the latest sat loop... time will tell... nevertheless she is going through a most critical phase of development...

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:09 PM

Re: newest nogaps

I think she's going anywhere from Morgan City, LA to Apalachicola, FL

She seems to be improving. Pressures are dropping once again.

(Weather Master)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:10 PM

Re: maybe, maybe not

though her pressure is down to 1001mb expect her winds to decrease to 60mph or less at 2pm, frankly i would put her at 50mph even. I see nothing sustained from bouys near 50 mph except some brief gusts to the ne in squalls.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:11 PM

Re: maybe, maybe not

Actually I think I just saw the exposed LCC moving WNW under the mask of sheared convection...but I could be seeing things.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:12 PM

Re: newest nogaps

extrapolating out the center based on past location and motion, puts her inside the CDO. That may be why she seems more ragged currently. I do beleive she has slowed a bit and the convection has swallowed the center.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:19 PM

Hey Scott

What bouys are you reading in that area to get your data? Can you provide the link please? Thanks

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:21 PM

Re: maybe, maybe not

Where did you find bouy reports down there?
Also, where can I find the most up-to-date sat pics. All of the ones I have are at least an hour old.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:25 PM

Center maybe??

Look at the latest GOES vis sat pix... sure give the illusion of some type of center ( might be a med level, stacking problems???) at 15.8N and 78.44W... would like another opinion... definitely moving off to the wnw or perhaps just north of wnw... interesting....

(British Meteorologist)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:30 PM

Re: Center maybe??

The problem Claudette has (had?) is the central vortex is so small. Any shear, as stated by NHC, could easily disrupt it. Given the continuing convection to the north east of the 'official' centre, and the possible turn that some of you have mentioned, i reckon we may be seeing the centre redeveloping more in the deep convection.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:41 PM

Re: Center maybe??

The LLCC is very well defined moving slowly to the west-northwest in moving out from under the cdo convetion.
Take a look at a good satellite.... Here it is super clear satellite

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 01:48 PM

Re: Center maybe??

Hey Frank P. Good eye, that should be the llcc showing plain as day about 15.8/78.4. Thats pretty close to the last recon fix at 1702z. Notice the thunderstorms building just to the north, it will be interesting to see if these can wrap around.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 02:01 PM

Re: Center maybe??

>>I think she's going anywhere from Morgan City, LA to Apalachicola, FL

LMAO Sir Cane. That puts you close to the center or just to the right of the storm, eh

? I'm just teasing, but I don't think that's all that bad of a forecast. If so, though, I would think that would be a week out.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 02:06 PM

Buoys, Scott?

I've got all the buoy links and can't find any down there, Scott...what is your link, so we can all look?

Thanks,

IHS,

Bill

(Weather Master)

Wed Jul 09 2003 02:29 PM

Re: Buoys, Scott?

you can get it from a couple sites. Using the noaa.gov will give ya some or you can dial-a-bouy ($$) and get info (if available). scottsvb

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 02:32 PM

Re: Center maybe??

That is very good until the last frame when it dissappears. Is it under the little blob now???

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 02:39 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Does anyone have info on how strong the trough will be in the midwest and will it pick up Claudette. Sure seems to be turning more wnw

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:03 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

There is a nice blow up of convection right on top of where the llcc went under the overcast in the last hour or so.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:06 PM

Great Sat Pic

Absolutely no doubt now that the center is in the CDO. The shear seems to be slacking off a bit in the last few frames on that fantastic sat pic linked earlier. Also is moving WNW not W.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:08 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Yeah Teal, convection is exploding this afternoon near the center of the system.... not indicative of a weakening system... you could really see the center of the system up intil the last couple of loops off the vis sat, then the convection just explodes... Claudette is one tough Babe... and not giving up without a good fight... must be a T3 Terminatress.... as Arrrrnold would say "She'll Be Bock"

(Meteorologist)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:12 PM

Some early afternoon thoughts...

Pretty interesting discussions here and across the net about Claudette this morning. People have been trying to kill her off all morning, but I think this is just a bit premature. Claudette, while not strengthening (much), isn't weakening significantly either. A lot of being made about the satellite representation of her, and lots of people are ignoring far and way the most important tool available to tropical forecasters...the recon report. As long as recon is in the system, you are getting a MUCH, MUCH better view of what is going on than on the satellite views..even the visibles. They are still sending vortex messages, which means we still have a tropical storm...indeed we have seen the pressure fall, and northward jog, which has huge implications for the future (as Bastardi noted at noon edt...he wrote a LOT of what I was going to write.). With a slight north jog, you are taking away some westward momentum away, and allowing the system a better chance to stack and ventilate. In additon, the north winds recon found well away from the center on the west side are a pretty good indicator that claudette is taking everything the ULL can throw at it and surviving.

So, we will assume that claudette survives, and the ULL pulls away and weakens in the next 24 hrs. With a moree poleward movement, you really get the northern Gulf Coast into play...the BAM models are an interesting study of what might happen...as a fairly shallow system, right now the BAMM is the model of choice, as it takes it's steering clues from the middle level flow...however, if Claudette does manage to deepen, then the BAMD will likely be a more accurate depicton of the steering flow...which is more concerning to the northern Gulf.

At this point, we need not concern ourselves with individual model solutions ...we need to focus on model trends...are they consistant from run to run...which models agree..which ones are outlyers?

I think Claudette makes it to minimal hurricane prior to making it to the yucatan...I think she does make it into the Gulf. But it is way too early to make that kind of call about a US landfall. At this point, I'm not ruling anybody out.

In additon, don't fall into the climatology trap...in this case, Claudette is writing her own rules, since she is already breaking the exisiting climatology.

Back to analysis for a while...be hanging around all afternoon and evening...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:15 PM

Re: Some early afternoon thoughts...

Jason,
Really appreciate your insight.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:25 PM

Re: Some early afternoon thoughts...

THanks JK.

I know I must be seeing things, but it appears in the last two frames that an eye may be forming. Don't know how, but I think she is intensifying rapidly this afternoon.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:30 PM

eye feature?

jth, maybe its an optical illusion but I also see something that might indicate an eye feature from the latest vis sat loop... coordinates would be 16.04N and 79.0W

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:32 PM

Re: eye feature?

That looks about right. Need to see a couple more new frames to verify.

Cycloneye

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:48 PM

Re: eye feature?

I am looking at the same thing as both of you so 3 persons see it but let's wait and verify this with new frames.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:53 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

I'm going on vacation Thursday of next week, so I don't need any Hurricane to mess it up. I've had it planned for 6 months.

I think the biggest threat is LA/MS as it moves North in the Gulf. It may even stall for all I know. Depends on how strong the steering currents are. Should be interesting to watch. We don't get to do this often in July.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 03:57 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

tropical models have reversed the northern turn late in the forecast period with a more westerly to wsw motion; exception being the LBAR

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/gfdl/tracks/Composite_tracks_claudette.gif

(Meteorologist)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:00 PM

Re: eye feature?

I see what you are talking about...it does look like a 'dimple' in the cloud shield..seems a bit early for an eye to form...but you never know...

Rad

(Weather Guru)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:00 PM

Good theory Jason

Nice theory there Jason, always interesting and very informative . Ok........... now we need too hear from Mr. Ed Dunham !

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:17 PM

latest model runs ... huh?

Funny thing about the latest model runs, yeah it takes it more towards Texas but read the last two fixes at the 96 and 120 hour…

The BAMD, BAMM and A98E all have the system NOT taking any northward component at all from the 96 to 120 hour time frame…

BAMD takes it from 23.5N to 23.4N, BAMM takes it from 21.3N to 21.2 N and the A98E takes it from 19.7N to 18.9N.. all three continue it to the west but SOUTHwest or WSW???

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:28 PM

Re: latest model runs ... huh?

yea, that what i was thinking ( ???)

(Moderator)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:37 PM

Re: latest model runs ... huh?

If I remember correctly the LBAR Model was the best to go with for BILL. I haven't really looked at much verification though. I also recall the NHC Model doing fairly well with BILL. Too early to know, since he was short lived. Correct me if I'm wrong, please

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:39 PM

Re: latest model runs ... huh?

what i see is that the system is sitting in the gulf, but a few of the models dont move it very much in the 96 hr to 120 hr, does this mean a possible stalling for an approaching trough to recurve it back toward the north or ne in time ?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:40 PM

Re: latest model runs ... huh?

Interesting Joe B. 4pm update. He's really backtracked and beating himself over the head in the ultimate irony of some recent harsh words. He's now in the likely to develop camp (but won't commit to rapid intensification) and is teasing a TX/MX lanfall rather than a Louisiana one. Tough call. I think it's just as likely to get caught out there in the trof split coming (as he noted) as it is to move inland in MX or TX.

One thing Joe noted was that the reason it's likley to do okay is because it's putting distance between itself and the ULL by the northern component in the track. That makes sense.

In any event, it should be a wild next several days. All bets are off that each one of us (except Cyclone Eye) can find reasoning to bring it to our own backyards.

So my call on the potential Cat 2 or 3 (post Yucatan) is alive and kicking no matter how unlikely it seems. But I'm not making a landfall call at least until tomorrow night or Friday morning.

Steve

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:42 PM

Re: Some early afternoon thoughts...

Jason of course is correct, but frankly I am surprised to see the storm pulsing up again. Still moving on same general track and at rapid rate, which continues to increase liklihood of a western solution. EDS.

(Moderator)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:44 PM

Re: latest model runs ... huh?

Take a look at the GMEX/CARIB area on color water vapor. Claudette is beginning to move the area off the FLA KEYS. I also thought I noticed an eye-like feature earlier, but the GHCC IR sat isn't showing it on the loops. Do you think the cold front in the midwest is skewing the models?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:45 PM

center fix

Latest vis loop appears to hint of a center (not an eye) at 16.18N and 79.15W... If this is true, system might be heading a tad north of wnw... from its previous positions, also could just be a wobble and system still on a true wnw heading...

Then again, maybe it's just a dimple....

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:55 PM

Re: center fix

>>If I remember correctly the LBAR Model was the best to go with for BILL.

I don't follow those tropical models that much. They're always squirrelly until the last minute. The ECMWF and ETA were the models that were on to Bill even ahead of it's classification. They were a tad bit west, but their alliance foretold what was going to happen.

Steve

(Moderator)

Wed Jul 09 2003 04:56 PM

Re: center fix

Take a look at the 2015z NRL Vis sat pix. Appears to be some mid-low level shear on the west.
www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 05:05 PM

Re: center fix

Looking at the visible image's, looks as though Claudette is pulsing up again. The deep convection is wrapping around the center and on the visible it looks as though some of the shear is relaxing. I think it'll be a hurricane at landfall over the Yucatan. Once in the gulf im just as clueless as alot of other people. Still should be a fun next few days.

(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)

Wed Jul 09 2003 05:05 PM

As Requested

Got to rush off to bowling so I'll keep this short.
1. Claudette, like me, had a rough day, but is making an excellent comeback (now if only I can)

2. With a season already full of record breakers, I don't worry too much about Climatology, 25N, etc - didn't seem to bother Bill too much (well stated Jason)!
3. Sure need to revise my forecast a bit - even with regeneration I'm sure that she'll hit the Yucatan...and I'm just as sure that she's destined for the Gulf...and may well stall there for awhile.
4. The ULL is the key to her future - if it weakens and opens up, the cyclone survives.
5. For the last two days the upper wind progs have indicated a south-to-north jet streak over the area where she is now - if she intensifies there will be some northward component to her track.
More later.
Cheers,
ED

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 05:07 PM

Per the NHC discussion

Per the NHC's 5:00 pm discussion: "CLAUDETTE WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THETROUGH...SO THE STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE GULF of MEXICO...NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN POSSIBLY WESTWARD AS PRESSURES INCREASE TO THE NORTH"

Maybe this is what the models were predicting... ridge build north of system... so it's not going north later in the track... time will tell... looking better for northern GOM....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 05:24 PM

Re: Per the NHC discussion

Local Mets - West Palm Beach have indicated we in SFL have nothing to worry about from Claudette- going to Mexico or Texas, Bastardi said it should be an open wave about now-- So we in South Florida have nothing to worry about.

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 05:30 PM

Re: Per the NHC discussion

The beat goes on. Still very unsure about her future. NHC forecasters seem to be thinking a little bit more towards that TX landfall and they could very well be right, but I am still very uneasy about it. I guess time will tell. She will likely continue to just pulse up and down overnight and possibly early tomorrow before conditions improve some. Its amazing to see this thing in such good shape given the fast moving winds aloft over her.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 05:59 PM

Re: Some early afternoon thoughts...

You called it Jason. I've seen worse enviroments but as some noted, this is the "hurricane graveyard" and Claudette seems to be holding up. I still think another 12 hours will give a better indication of Claudettes intentions.

(British Meteorologist)

Wed Jul 09 2003 06:07 PM

A better looking storm

Well Claudette seems to be doing as she wants! Although ragged looking earlier, she has managed to fight off the shear, keep her fragile little vortex, and now build some pretty impressive convection. The way the convection is looking now i would not be surprised if we see a CDO develop quite pronounced, maybe even an eye, in the next few hours. With the upper level environment just starting to ease alittle, and expected to get progressively less hostile, i think we are in with a good chance of seeing her make it to Hurricane status before moving onto the Yucatan late tomorrow night. As for where she goes, and how strong she will be after her passage into the Gulf... who knows!

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 07:36 PM

Re: A better looking storm

Looks like convection is on the wane again in latest pics. Probably will pulse up again in a couple of hours, but I think its safe to say 'C' will hold her own without weakining or strenghthening overnight.

Really tough to see, long-term, where she will come ashore in the gulf. I think a lot depends on just where she crosses the Yucatan. A southerly route across the landmass will weaken the storm and keep it from moving much north at all, while a slightly more northerly route across the land may allow a slightly stronger storm to originate in the gulf. All that being said, I'm going with anywhere from Kenedy County, Texas (where Brett made landfall) to just north of Corpus Christi. Watch me be off by 750 miles!!

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 07:43 PM

Re: A better looking storm

To clarify, north to Port O'Connor.

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 08:05 PM

West?

The 7:00 advisory just came out and the NHC is saying she is moving west. I could be wrong but I just took a look at the last visibles available and I sure think I see some kind of a northerly jog to the path, like at least a WNW if not even a NW jog. Maybe someone could take a look and see if I'm just seeing things.

(Moderator)

Wed Jul 09 2003 08:07 PM

Re: A better looking storm

"C" has earned her keep today. Looks like things may not set up for my LA/MS strike but it still early (stall). Someone mentioned the early NOGAPS run this am. That was what I was seeing happening as of yesterday. We will see. I do believe C has the potential to cause a major problem for gulf coast in general.

(Moderator)

Wed Jul 09 2003 08:19 PM

Re: A better looking storm

Looking at the newest model runs, the LBAR has reflected my thinking the best aside form the NOGAPS this morning.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 08:31 PM

Re: A better looking storm

Boy right now it would be really hard for me to go against the mostly westward track.... each model run takes her more to the west... this can change as fast as they run the models however... climatologically, west is consistent with similar tracks... yeah, each storm is different, but so far, she has behaved quite well as far as her track is concerned.. I said last night the farther south she was from Jamaica, the more likely she would continue on a westward track today.. that came to fruition....a weaker system would be more influence to track west, she never really got cranked up because of the ULL trashing all day, thus another factor in eliminating a northward component... I really thought she might have taken a more northerly component sometime today based on at least one or two models from yesterday... wrong....

Problem is, just when you think you have em figured out, they change... maybe this will be the case with Claudette... TX/MX border seems like as good as spot as any, maybe even farther south... who knows.... I think something drastic is going to have to happen for this thing to get anywhere near the northern GC, or even more drastic to affect Florida... bottom line, anything and everything is possible with tropical systems, but that's how things seem to be stacking up tonight... maybe tomorrow, some new twists will factor in and all will change.

Shawn, I could not detect any discernable NW jog, but I think I'm suffering from a serious case of VSLD, visible satellite loop deleriousness.... from watching the loops all darn day...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 09:11 PM

Re: A better looking storm

Shawn Definitely a northward jog; slowed some too. Cheers!! And I put a fork in her earlier!

BillD

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Jul 09 2003 09:13 PM

Re: A better looking storm

My first post of the season, but I've been following everyone's comments, and they are great as usual!

I agree with Shawn on a possible direction change, although we should wait a little longer to be sure. But I see a more NW movement and a definite slowdown in forward speed. IR can be deceiving though, and it could just be a temporary jog.

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 09:16 PM

Re: A better looking storm

She does look more and more impressive. If she reaches Hurricane strength tonight or tomorrow morning, then she may very well turn northwesterly earlier than first thought. That said, I am still convinced that she is a Mexico problem.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Jul 09 2003 09:24 PM

Re: A better looking storm

Well, this will be enough for me today too. But one last look and now I too will hazard a guess that the bearing is more northward than before. Admittedly it is near imposssible to be accurate as there is not any real visible eye feature, but in the last 5-6 frames of the NOAA IR-4 a center like does seem to be noticable. If one follows that with a straight edge you can see that it moves definitely north of west, so that in a straight line it would miss all but the northereastern tip of Yucatan. If this is true, then this is definitely news. But only the Hunter's know for sure. This feature is at about 17/79.
we'll all know later on. EDS.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Jul 09 2003 09:25 PM

Re: A better looking storm

Boy, I've watched the IR loop for the past 30 minutes, and TWC loops to with the good Dr. Lyons.... I just can't see any significant NW jog off IR... it might be there, but I can't find it... you guys might be right, I'm just unable to find it... wnw yeah, nw... just don't know

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 09:38 PM

Re: A better looking storm

I'm with you on this one Frank. Looking at some of the most recent loops, it looks to me like the LLC may be pinwheeling about, but the storm looks to be continuing the western component. Claudette is certainly looking livelier and I still feel that by tomorrow noon, we might have a better feel for the route she is going to take.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Jul 09 2003 09:43 PM

Re: A better looking storm

No offense, but looking for slight jogs on IR is really like beating your head against the wall...it's not the right tool for the job.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Jul 09 2003 09:45 PM

Re: A better looking storm

It looks like the western part of Claudette maybe gaining on the upper low. Does anyone else see that?

JustMe

(Weather Guru)

Wed Jul 09 2003 10:21 PM

Re: A better looking storm

John Hope this one is in your hands

I can see a little move North but it is little. I can't wait for morning to see... If it gets caught up in the low could be
very interesting if the high seeks it's way in too.

Claudette is a Lady with a mind of her own and a real will to survive. I dont think she is going to go down easy.

won't rule out any movement anywhere now

(Moderator)

Wed Jul 09 2003 10:26 PM

Re: A better looking storm

This all may be fuel for the Coop! Like Ed I can't post from work but my job includes checking everything related. Like Frank has said.. anything can happen! See ya' Thursday

BillD

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Jul 09 2003 10:31 PM

Re: A better looking storm

I agree, watching IR frame to frame is about as useful as banging your head against the wall, I was just a little less direct in how I said it.

But I still think something has changed in the last couple of hours. We'll see by the morning, my eyes are tired from staring at loops all day.

Bill

(Moderator)

Wed Jul 09 2003 10:44 PM

Re: A better looking storm

One more. I have not seen any sat data tonight but I have read all posted here. Could it be caused by center reformation, a little power surge or saying I may stall???? We will see. Got to check Dr Lyons now then Jason!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:01 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

oh yea she slowed down 10.2 mph on the last 3 hrs.I just too the life of me cannot see this W run forever till her death.I look at the WV loops and that ull is a closed door to the W.C has to barrel through the ull are take the easier path around the E side. I believe that the ull is what slowing it down now.I would also not be to surprised to see some more shear w/her proxemity
to the ull before it said and done.Then you got the trough coming down if it comes down far enough another closed door on parts of Texas.Early to say this but central GC from TX/LA - Pen/FL look like candidates.Maybe I'm a sucker but thier it is.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:28 PM

Pre-bedtime notes....

From recon, Claudette seems to be dying down a bit...pressures up slightly, center dislocated from the CDO...not a good combo right now...

Tropical ETA (only thing out so far) is well south...into Belize...interesting to see that...

Interesting note about tomorrow...NOAA is flying the Gulfstream in there tomorrow on the high-level sampling mission to get some data into the models...we should get some better model data from that (not that the data we have is bad now...but I am waiting eagerly for the enhanced data).

(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:29 PM

Re: A better looking storm

At 03Z I'd place it at 16.6N 81.0W with what appears to be a small eye starting to form...and frankly I don't see a northward component. In fact, over the past hour or so, I see very little movement at all. The storm has pulsed up a new CDO and it looks quite healthy at the moment. I suspect some reintensification has taken place over the past couple of hours - quite likely given the apparent slowdown. And all of this in early July - looks like its going to be a memorable season.
Cheers,
ED

(Weather Master)

Wed Jul 09 2003 11:40 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Claudette is continuing right on course over last 96 hours when she was a open wave even. Her movement has been generally 275dg with some wnw 1 hour jogs. I was amazed at some earlier saying she has a eye forming or was rapidly intensifying. Like Jason Kelly mentioned, the recon is the best indication that we all have. Also some flare ups in the deep convection allusionate us to think she might be changing course or she might be relocating.
Overall she is behaving still as expected. Maybe still moving slightly faster then projected as of now but her speed will continue to slow as she approches the Yucitan. Still I canot confirm at 60mph, infact earlier i said she should be best a 50mph system and that now is barley how i see her. 3 reasons come to my conclusion on this. 1 her LLC is and has been off to the wsw of her the last 24 hours indicating she isnt in the CDO where strengthening will occur, 2 recon continues to report presures around 1001-1004 and with that presure it generally rotates down to a 45-50 mph. Also latest recon max flt level winds at 47kt or about 40 mph,, though isolated areas might have higher gust in flare ups.
Generally, Claudette is moving along as expected, struggling and to me barly a tropical storm. I do expect her to continue a w to more wnw motion into Thursday with some slowing but not until she reaches the coast of Mexico with winds around 45-50mph (which she has been all day). After moving across the Yucitan she will slow even more Friday into Saturday and strengthn up to a hurricane. After that she could start a move to Tampico as heights over the TX,La area rise or she might be far enough south to not move W and wait for the next trough mid week. Time will tell. scottsvb

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 12:39 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

storm has moved some north, last few hours, strong disturbance coming off africa. and more behind it.

(British Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 03:26 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

NHC has her moving just north of west on the intermediate advisory. Additionally, Recon now puts the extrapolated surface pressure down to 998 mb... a drop of 6 mb in about the same number of hours! This is normally a sign of a strengthening storm. Claudette also looks good on IR imagery, with a large area of deep convection continuing!

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 03:28 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

I Hope this is acceptable!
URNT12 KNHC 100601
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/0601Z
B. 16 DEG 33 MIN N
81 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1431 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 106 DEG 57 KT
G. 029 DEG 091 NM
H. EXTRAP 998 MB
I. 17 C/ 1523 M--F/L temp outside eye/ctr
J. 25 C/ 1529 M-F/L temp inside the eye/ctr
K. 15 C/ NA--Dewpoint inside the eye/ctr
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.5/ 3 NM
P. AF968 0604A CLAUDETTE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 57 KT N QUAD 0531Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB.
RADAR BNDING VERY CONSISTENT W/FL CNTR, W/CNTR OFFSET TO THE
NW WITHIN THAT FEATURE.

(British Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:29 AM

Claudette down to 996 mb

Another drop in central pressure has just come in from the Recon flight, with the new central pressure extrapolated to be 996 mb! The pressure given in the 0600z Intermediate ADvisory was 1004 mb! thats a drop of 8 mb in a few hours. Additionally, recon reports what the satellite confirms, increasing convection throughout the eastern semicircle of the storm. Looks like Claudette is really only going to do what she wants!

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:42 AM

Re: Claudette down to 996 mb

Down 8 mb in 5h 14min, roughly. Temp outside the eye came up 2C in 1:39 min. The prev fix at 06Z had the warmest inside eye temp yet. 25C ! Better put on your safety belt, this one is going to be rough. 06Z models are still taking in back SW after the Yucatan. Cold frt and trrough must be skewing them south..

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:09 AM

Re: Claudette down to 996 mb

Should be a new Vortex Msg shortly. Previous were at 0601Z and 0740Z. That gives about 13 min from now. Looks like Recon is on the NW side, about 3 deg N and 3 deg W of last center fix.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:01 AM

Meanwhile.....ANOTHER "STRONG TROPICAL WAVE"...

...just off Africa---looks like a TD already.

C is getting better organized all the time, moving more off to the NW and slowing...and as Ed D says (we forget this sometimes) ALL this in EARLY July.

It'll be a ride this year folks--fasten the belts....

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:10 AM

Re: Meanwhile.....ANOTHER "STRONG TROPICAL WAVE"...

Claudette looking much better on satellite....think we will have a hurricane later today.

Mary K.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:12 AM

Re: Meanwhile.....ANOTHER "STRONG TROPICAL WAVE"...

Question for those who are knowledgeable: I know that hurricanes take the path of least resistance. So, is the dryer air over the Northwestern/Central GOM more resistant or less resistant than the moist air that appears to curve towards Tampa Bay? I do know that air masses change from hour to hour at times. Just trying to become more educated about the air mass etc.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:25 AM

Claudette is DOING IT.. i mean...look at last few frames.. LOOK

very impressive.. really

believe she should be a hurricane by 11 unless they wait til 2 or something drastic changes...

unreal beautiful to see it come together the last few frames

and think track is too far to the left... think she is turning faster than expected which would imply ridge is weaker than we thought and or..well....what does the nogaps say this mornng im wondering

later...just wanted to add my eight cents

Bobbi

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:32 AM

Re: Claudette is DOING IT.. i mean...look at last few frames.. LOOK

Can someone post a site where I can get real time satelite data. Hurricane Watcher posted a great sat yesterday, but I clicked on the link today and it hasn't moved with the storm so you don't see anything.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:43 AM

Re: Claudette is DOING IT.. i mean...look at last few frames.. LOOK

Yeah, very impressive. It looks like Claudette has won and is setting up for some intensifying. Look out Yucatan.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:50 AM

MOdels

Maybe I'm not seeing these models correctly, but is that another trough coming in a couple days after the first one moves out? Some of the models still have C in the SW Gulf at that time moving WSW. If that is another trough, could she do a cyclonic loop and head back north or even NE?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:53 AM

new vortex

New Votex, 988 mb 65knts

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:09 AM

Re: Claudette is DOING IT.. i mean...look at last few frames.. LOOK

I'm not really a poster - just enjoy watching and reading

I had the same problem - I tried going to the root address but wouldn't let me in at the same zoom level - however if you go into the address from the post and change the Lat=, Lon= coordinates to the current location it moves. I assume you change other criteria too but haven't tried yet.

garyb

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:17 AM

NASA SITE

jth this is the site http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:17 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Looking at my map my eyes must be decieving me. Claudette has really begun to lift northwest I think mexico is out

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:24 AM

Re: NASA SITE

Am I missing something? I can't get real time like the one posted earlier..plus I can't figure out how to zoom and still get a loop. HEELLPPP !!!

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:26 AM

Re: new vortex

Did recon relocate the center??? Just looked at new Vortex message and center is NE of past advisory...interesting.

garyb

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:32 AM

Re: NASA SITE

jth click on the first map then read what to do. look at all the fields and make a choice

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:38 AM

Re: NASA SITE

Thanks

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:40 AM

Re: NASA SITE

jth

open the old post - go to the address and find lat= and type in 17 - find lon= and type in -83 hit enter and you're right over C at least for now. I couldn't get anywhere on the GOES site either.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:46 AM

Re: NASA SITE

got it thanks

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:50 AM

Re: NASA SITE

jth,

For what it is worth, you can get the fastest updating satellite images as far as being close to real time on the NRL Monterey Site.

NRL Hurricane Page

Just click on whatever sat image you want to look at, select 'animate' at the top, and follow the instructions.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:51 AM

New Center

I thought this site would light up after that new vortex message. JK are you out there? What do you think about the new location. How does this effect the future of C??

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:58 AM

Re: New Center

Just read the message even closer. Max flight level winds were in the SW quadrunt????? and says has a closed wall. Very interesting. Can't wait for new update.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:05 AM

Re: New Center

Looks to me like we might have seen a center jump...but the guys at NHC have more data than we do, so, as you said, the 11 am adv discussion should be a good read (I hope Stacy Stewart does it).

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:12 AM

The deal according to >ME<

Still too early to make a call on the future. On Tuesday and Wed. I said it would have to be Thursday PM or Friday AM before I'd make the call. I did caution everyone that I thought she had Category 2 and Category 3 potential. Many of you no doubt thought I was full of crap

. But if you looked at the visibles Tuesday night right before they went dark, you were amazed at Claudette's organization (albeit temporary then) in the face of what she was fighting. One could logically deduce potential intensification the next time she was under upper ridging - or at least in a more favorable shear environment, because she was showing the heat she was packing so-to-speak. That was missed by some big-time gurus around the web who thought they had Claudette figured out as she was to meet her demise.

SURPRISE!

I see 3 scenarios:

1) Claudette continues rapidly intensifying and makes a move poleward with the trof. Landfall would likely be Sunday between Terrebonne Parish, LA (Houma/Dulac/Cocodrie) and Bay County Florida (PCB). - 25% chance

2) Intensification stops and the models (and I mean almost ALL the models) have it right. Claudette crosses the Yucatan and heads toward the Upper Mexico/Lower-Central Texas Coast with a TO BE CONTINUED scenario. To be continued would most likely mean a stall and then shunt to the west along with the high that will be building in over the top of the Gulf Coast. - Chance 50%

3) Storm stays about the same. The European Model had it right from the get go and just plows Claudette on a speed journey through the Yucatan, the southern BOC and into the Pacific. - Chance 25%

Let me just say that I don't like to go against the ECMWF on western gulf storms. When it sees the 'big picture', it's my favorite model. What I can't figure out is if it is seeing the big picture, and Claudette just runs on out, or if it is basing its solutions on something that just isn't there. And that's a call I can't make. I watch the runs, but I just don't know that much about it because there aren't many known biases with its western Atlantic tropical connections.

So I'd suggest that everyone from Houma to PCB watch the storm today and tonight. You may be able to breathe a sigh of relief by noon tomorrow. Or, you might be kicking your plans for a potential IH landfall into high gear by tomorrow night.

Looking forward to everyone's comments today as we have a 988 storm which is obviously beginning to feedback. I'm not trying to sound alarmist, but this could become a HUGE problem for somebody.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:31 AM

Real time satpics

Try this jth....

IHS,

Bill
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:34 AM

Re: new vortex

Remember the location in the recons are in hours and minutes, not degree...ie, 16.10 does not mean 16.1 degrees....
it has to be converted to LAt/Long (except for the first two digits).

IHS,

Bill

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:37 AM

Re: new vortex

PLease explain.....how does 17.3 and 82.45 translate in Lat and Lon?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:38 AM

Re: New Center

Recon reports come in sequences, by flight legs, when they say the max winds in sw quad, that DOES not mean that the fastest winds in the whole storm are in the SW quadrant (although they may be)...it usually means that the highest winds they found IN THAT QUAD are as stated..there could be higher winds elsewhere....

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:38 AM

11:00 Coord

17.8 83.6

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:39 AM

Re: new vortex

Do I read the heading as 295 degrees?? That would be NW. Not sure that's correct. Any help would be appreciated. Cheers!!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:40 AM

Claudette Strengthens Hurricane Warnings Issued

...CLAUDETTE STRENGTHENS...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AT 11 AM EDT THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO CAMPECHE.

AT 11 AM EDT THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THESE WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CLAUDETTE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT CLAUDETTE HAS STRENGTHENED AND RE-ORGANIZED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.

AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CLAUDETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CLAUDETTE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUTER RAINBANDS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA AT THIS TIME.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:48 AM

Re: Claudette Strengthens Hurricane Warnings Issued

Go watch the most recent Gulf satellite.

This thing is moving directly Northwest right now.

If this lasts, the Gulf Coast is in trouble. She is already a big girl but she's going to get huge out over the gulf. This is one of the most organized storms at this point that I've seen in a long time.

Anyone from Galveston to Mobile/Pensacola better wake up because it does not appear to be headed off into Mexico anytime soon.

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 11:09 AM

Re: Claudette Strengthens Hurricane Warnings Issued

If she slows down even more (as they are predicting) than this storm could be anybody's baby. It will definitely throw a monkey wrench into the mix.

Questions to ask:
Is the high pressure system going to stay on top of Florida keeping us out of danger?

Or will it move out giving Claudette a chance to get scooped up to the northwest/north (poleward) by the ridge?

If the ridge DOES scoop it up, will it scoop it up towards Florida?

What if Claudette misses the scoop?

Then what?

Well, my studying weather during the off season has definitely helped me this year.
I still don't know squat .

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 11:10 AM

Re: Claudette Strengthens Hurricane Warnings Issued

Here is another good satellite it shows the whole united states in on the right edge shows are storm...
Satellite pic...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 11:13 AM

Re: Claudette Strengthens Hurricane Warnings Issued

What's up 'cal? I haven't either. I tried to respond to a post by LoisCane on Tuesday night when it was looking great, but it took me an hour to find a way to say "I get a little uneasy when I see that /look/ down in the Caribbean Sea." I finally blew it off and said something else. But you better believe it.

Question today is whether or not Claudette can make the connection with the upper trof coming down. I can't make that call. It seemed impossible, but as the storm is reorganizing somewhat to the north (as per 11am NHC discussion), the chances increase. I still think it's only about 2 in 10 that Claudette hits the northern Gulf Coast in the 3-4 day period, but if its heading continues between 290-310, that possibility grows accordingly.

I like my #2 scenario where it gets stuck in no-mans land. On Joe Bastardi's tropical update this morning, he noted height-falls coming in from the SE which basically stops the stream-flow and would leave Claudette to drift around in the SW-W Gulf for a few days.

I don't think the call can be made until tomorrow with all the things in play. In the meantime, it's going to strengthen.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 11:20 AM

Re: Claudette Strengthens Hurricane Warnings Issued

Hey pig,

as you can tell i have been alleviated from my posting duties on SR.com

Dan Indest is a communist

but I've been watching your coverage of the storm, GJ

WeatherNLU is a slacker these days

Anyway back to the storm, yeah I think that we won't be able to tell whats happening with this thing for another day or two. It's actually scaring me because Bob Breck said on Tuesday that he thought it was going to turn NW around the Yucatan.. which it has.. then follow along a ridge right into the Morgan City area.

If thats the case, New Orleans is in big trouble.

(Weather Master)

Thu Jul 10 2003 11:47 AM

CLIMATOLOGY

I know many here have said that climatology isn't gospel, but you also can't ignore it either. A few days ago when the storm was near the islands, climatology said it would head toward the Texas/Mexico area. If you look at the location now in the western Carribbean, climatology says it will head somewhere between Texas and Tampa. At least climatologically speaking, in just a few days the path has changed dramatically. My prediction still stands: The first landfalling U.S. Hurricane of 2003.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 11:59 AM

NW= 315 degrees

WNW= 292.25 degrees

so, if it is moving at 300 degrees...that is between wnwn and nw..

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 12:02 PM

Re: NW= 315 degrees

that is, between WNW and NW...LOL.

Lets see if the nw trend keeps up or intensifies...not sweating here in Fl, yet....

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 12:03 PM

Re: NW= 315 degrees

Thanks Bill. Quite a shift from before though. I'm still trying to figure out where the center is based on looking at the swirling mass as a whole. Seems like its still evolving, or the shear is confusing me (more likely the latter). Only the 3rd storm (1st real tracker) and I'm humbled already. Jeez, can't wait for Danny! LOL!! Cheers!!

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 12:05 PM

Re: NW= 315 degrees

Looks to me like the center could be reforming even further N. Will see if verifies, but that's what I'm seeing in the last few frames.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Jul 10 2003 01:37 PM

Re: NW= 315 degrees

Abbreviated post: The sat pics do not confirm further reformation. the storm remains assymetrical, and the vortex is still under the SW most could mass. I think shear is still a problem, due to some blow off, a warming of the cloud mass and further development in a plateau for the time being.
Direction remains toward the NE most tip of yucatan...EDS.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:11 PM

No west component recenter or movement?

THere was no west component between the 11 and 2 update. So is that a re center or actually north movement. could it be responding to the trough?????????

(Weather Master)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:22 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

From 11 am to 2 pm the storm moved 30 miles due North!! What is this???? NHC now claims NW movement, not WNW. Temporary or not?? ULL causing movement NW???

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:24 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Hey All, I just woke up and the storm seems to really be cranking now. Im still not sure where it's headed though. I'll watch it for the rest of today and by midnight or tomorrow morning we should have a better idea. I love your post Steve...I always enjoy them and read them more then once. Well im goin to prepare alittle ya know just incase and so I'll be ready for the rest of the season. It looks to be an active one.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:31 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

I thought I saw a straight north movement, but didn't believe it until I saw the advisory. NHC uses a smoothed path, so NW would be right. If it keeps moving mostly N or N it'll be NNW at the next advisory.

TWT= time will tell.

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:36 PM

huh?

Well, this is interesting...in the last close up frame, it seems to have jogged to the NNE! This may be a satellite artifact.,but even if it is, the movement seems to be at least 360 degrees....if this verifies....all bets are off!

Even if it is only a jog, it is totally unexpected.

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:38 PM

Models chaging

Northern Gulfcoast under the gun

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:39 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Just a quick thanks to everyone for your informative posts. Here are a couple of links to show the latest model graphics:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/gfdl/tracks/
I do not know when the next update will be issued, but, like others, I am curious to see if there is going to be a shift in the models.
Tony
Panama City, FL

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:43 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

The 8AM advisory from the NHC mentioned this:

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17MPH [SNIP] ...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Well, so far they are right. She has slowed down and she has made a more NW movement. However, the movement toward the NW happened a little quicker than they expected, I think.

If the track begins shifting to the right--clockwise--then we ALL better be paying attention because she's about to hit some really warm water. Another thing. If she misses any land areas which would weaken her, we could see big problems for someone down the road.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:50 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

>>I love your post Steve...I always enjoy them and read them more then once.

Thanks, but I ain't squat. I'm no different from anyone else on this forum, and certainly not of the caliber of Jason, HF, Ed, et al. Those guys are the ones who's posts need to be read more than once, because they know a helluva lot more than I do. Shame on you for just waking up btw. Can I say "Jealous"? I've been up since 6:50 - sure do miss those 90 day summer vacations.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:55 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Thanks for the info !! What do you think of GFDL into East TX and LBAR to LA ?? Looks like UKMET had bad model initializtion. It looks like TX/Mexico is not a sure bet at this time and all Gulf Coast residents should monitor the movement of this storm closely.
Tony

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:56 PM

following a ridge to morgan city?

is that what you said?

well if the other comment about any chance of it floundering around the gulf plays out someone will be in for big trouble cause imagine over those warm waters and big slow storm could intensify mighty nicely.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 02:59 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Ok...Well I enjoy everyones post on this board period. We'll leave it at that. I seem to learn lots from your post along with everyone else's. Now back to the storm....

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 03:00 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

hey wxman richie.. think what that means is that the storm may have jogged north but the hurricane center believes the overall motion will be ______

just smiling... gotten used to that confusion and believe that is the explanation always give me when i asked

is crankin.. one wonders what it would look like if it totally organized under just the one center and took off..

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 03:03 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Looks like it may be making a cycloid...or has become almost stationary, little drift to the NW at the end of the frames....this is what makes this verrrryyyy interesting...

IHS,

Bill

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 03:19 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

I just finished watching the WV loops for the GOM. Interestingly enough (to me anyway), there looks to be what appears a ridge/trough in mid-Texas that could become a player in where Claudette goes. I have no idea how far to the west this goes. Do you see what I'm talking about? Could that be a reason for the change in the motion of this storm?
All eyes need to watch this one, that's for sure. I am NO EXPERT by any means, but I'm thinking the NHC will shift the track to the right at 5pm. But the way things usually go for me, they'll probably shift it to the LEFT.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 03:30 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Getting interesting. I thought that a more North track may be possible in the gulf than a WNW motion.

Thanks for the updates, Steve.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 03:50 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Look at her now. Looks like she's moving almost NNW now. If it keeps going this way, it looks as if it will hit around Biloxi, MS. Of course it's going to change course, but I find it amazing that in only 12 hours its gone from WNW to NW to now NNW.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 03:59 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

She's definately moving more NNW right now.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:03 PM

PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

The 'patient' seems to have taken an unexpected turn...whats your diagnosis/prognosis, Doc?

Thanks!

IHS,

Bill

garyb

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:08 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Must be seeing things. The last few frames looked north east motion

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:08 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

Hmmm...storm seems to be eroding on S side...at 2pm, cp was estimated at 1005, winds 45kts!

Hmmmmm.

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:10 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

almost looks like the mid-level and low-level circs are currently detached. Looking a little beaten right now!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:10 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

Thats per the 2:06 pm Vortex Data Message from Recon..... winds may not be the highest, but that 1005 is a CP...hmmmm

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:14 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

An eye is clearly visible for the first time on latest vis, but hardly any sside convection...dry air intrusion, likely off Nicaraugua..or southerly shear...Ed mentioned a jet streak over the area ;circulation still well formed though....

IHS,

Bill

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:21 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

I didn't see an eye. I saw an area devoid of convection between two rotating clusters if that makes any sense.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:21 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Def moving or reforming n - nnw......

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:25 PM

Eye gone-

Sure am glad you posted that, I went back and looked, and saw that the pic on the GEOSync (NASA) site had not updated since about 2:50--there was an eye then, since it has collapsed and is as you noted----looks a lot more ragged--it puled up, not it is pulsing down.

What a fickle storm....!

IHS,
Bill

Based my N movement on the OSU site pic, whcih is up to date...storm seesm to be almost to 19 N at this time!

IHS,
Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:26 PM

Re: Eye gone-

Meant to write--it pulsed up, now down.

IHS,
Bill

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:27 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

I'm concerned....

First, I am wondering if nhc is holding a vortex report until after the release of the 5 pm adv...we should have had one by now.

The satellite images imply an almost due north motion...not good for the Gulf Coast. Claudette is looking better and better as the ULL moves away and she slows down. At this point, missing the Yucatan and grazing Cuba isn't out of the question.

I'm ready for some fresh recon and the upper level sampling mission!

More as I dig further...fire away questions if you got 'em.

Ricreig

(User)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:30 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

... so, bottom line. It appears all bets are off and even us 'Floridians' need to keep an eye open on this one?

I don't think conditions are favorable for a prolonged North jog, but conditions change and any time a Tropical Storm or worse is South of Florida, we need to keep our coullective eyes open.

The models I've seen over the past few days keep inching North and East....It won't take too much more of this before the panhandle needs to become concerned.

Yea team...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:31 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

Sat. presence looks ragid Jason? Why?

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:33 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

In reply to:

... so, bottom line. It appears all bets are off and even us 'Floridians' need to keep an eye open on this one?

yup...at this point...I do think this is a jog, but even this limited jog can have profound impacts on the eventual landall...

It got my bosses in my office talking, to be sure.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:35 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

Developing outflow...

Claudette is moving away from the sheared environment to a less sheared one...reorganization is going on, and she does look a bit ragged, but in my opinion this is transitory and temporary.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:36 PM

Re: PAGING DR. JASON KELLEY

Well the storm is probably going through one of it's many disorganized period's....Like Bill said it pulse's up then down. I'm on Pensacola Beach but even with the storm turning alittle northward Im not worrying yet. I do agree with you Jason, I think Claudette on her current path may barely craze The Yuc. and remain of the Yuc. Channel. From there I dont have a clue as of yet. I'd like to know everyone's guess on where it may move. For now Im gonna say Galveston to LA/MS border beware. Thats subject to change many time's LOL

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:40 PM

???? Recon

That recon report is weird. How could it go from 993mb w/the highest winds being at 75knts to 1005? They did note that the center is 5nm east of the fixed position, so it looks like it is further east than thought. Hm.

Are they in the same storm that we're looking at? Maybe a different quadrant?

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:40 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

WOW..this is where we amatuers get divided from the real guys quickly and we certainly could use some professional input...but Coleen may have been the first to note why this is happenning...the trough now over the central TX coast looks vigorous...the ULL ahead of our storm seems to have opened up...the vortex diving into the center of the storm like it has may be reformation, and now the general flow of the system is northward, ahead of the trough. I did not see the dry air intrusion mentioned earlier. Given enough time with the current structure, this storm could reinvigorate stronger than before...now there is more convection west of the center than ever and that seems to being pulled around...the activity is not over and the 5:00 will be very interesting indeed.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:44 PM

5:00 Discussion

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 10, 2003

Claudette may have been a hurricane at 1530z. The hurricane hunter
aircraft reported flight-level winds of 76 kt...and an eyewall
dropsonde indicated sustained hurricane-force winds at the surface.
Two hours later...the plane found a fragmented windfield near the
decayed eyewall...with winds lower and pressures higher than
measured on the previous pass. While the plane reported a pressure
of 1005 mb...it did not get a good center fix and the initial wind
and pressure will remain 60 kt and 993 mb until the next plane
arrives. However...these are likely generous estimates. It should
be noted that since the aircraft left... satellite imagery hints at
an exposed center southwest of the convection and the possible
re-organization of the system to the northwest of the current
position.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 310/12. Other than
that...the track forecast philosophy remains a broken record...the
same as for the past few days. Claudette should move generally
west-northwestward for 48-72 hr on the south side of the
subtropical ridge...then slow and turn westward over the Gulf of
Mexico as the ridge weakens. Some medium range guidance even
suggests a southwestward motion after 72 hr. The forecast track is
shifted somewhat to the north of the previous track through 72 hr
due to the initial position...and similar to the track after 72 hr
based on the medium range models. It should be noted that at 120
hr there is a large spread in the dynamical models between the GFDL
landfall near Freeport Texas and the UKMET landfall near Tampico
Mexico...so it is too early to narrow down the threat area.

While Claudette has good cirrus outflow in all directions...there is
southwesterly flow undercutting theoutflow and shearing the storm.
Large-scale models continue to forecast a generally favorable
environment through 96 hr...so the intensity forecast will call for
strengthening...albeit less than forecast earlier. This
strengthening may very well come in bursts as seen this morning.

Forecaster Beven

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:48 PM

Re: ???? Recon

Two words Colleen...center relocation.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:48 PM

Turning

All I got to say is watch out Western Cuba and watch out Naples

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:50 PM

Re: 5:00 Discussion

So...here is what we got:

Storm pulsed, probably weaker now than earlier, but as Jason notes, it'll pulse up again

Some models now show La landfall

We have a probability at PNS for first time...

and...NHC has a smoothed NW motion, and has shifted their track

words to the wise...all eyes open on this one, may be reorganizing and temporarily disorganized, but also may be moving more to the N, than w.

Stay tuned.

IHS,
Bill

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:50 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

I don't see any dry air either, Doug. I think that what we're seeing is Mz. Claudette attempting (and probably succeeding, too) to put herself in a less hostile atmosphere.

Remember....the original models put her near Tampa. However, at this point, where she goes is anyone's guess because she's trying to re-organize herself. I don't get nervous when the original track has Florida in it's path, I get nervous when the original track is on the other side of the GOM.

We're in big trouble if she shifts right and misses land. Of course, this is today. By tomorrow we could wake up and she could be going due W.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:51 PM

Dr. K answers the page!

Thanks Jason!

IHS,
Bill

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:57 PM

did recon have the right center is my question?

will know soon i suppose

nice to see ya jason, not sure what is going on.. have to keep watching

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:59 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

So Jason where are your concern area's as of now along the Gulf Coast right now? Where do you feel Claudette is moving or where do u think she will move?

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 04:59 PM

Re: ???? Recon

Thanks, Jason.

I've broken my record of predicting the exact opposite of what the NHC says. They have shifted the track north...but I don't know for how long.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:00 PM

if you look carefully on the visible loop and zoom

you can see what looks like the old center trying to pull wnw-nw beating against strong winds/shear something that is making the storm look like it is moving ne but not sure that wasn't the convective cloud over the cdo going whosh

yet... outside frame of storm still looks beautiful with feathery cirrus in all directions, as stated before..

wierd storm... really

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:02 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Watched Lyons of Weather Channel and there was nothing to indicate even a slight deviation from the National Hurricane Center forecasts although when he showed satellite movement it looked more NNE than the WNW he was talking about. The local Mets are in agreement with him as well from West Palm Beach. Occasionally everyone gets fooled - Bastardi yesterday said it would be an open wave. In any event So Floridians have nothing to fear with this Yucatan bound storm.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:06 PM

Re: if you look carefully on the visible loop and zoom

What looks to be going on is:

a new burst is beginning

there is still some shear from the u/l
midlevel sw shear

also some S-N shear

a new eye is forming N and NNE of the old one

LLCC moving under convection..

here we go again....

IHS,
Bill

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:10 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

They said that when Josephine came ashore right above Tampa, too. They INSISTED it was going north, and it wasn't. I believe they also did the same thing with Irene.

No one's out of the woods until it passed your area. Floridians are no more out of the woods than Texans. Statements like that are the ones that keep people off guard and unprepared.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:11 PM

Bastardi out with a 4:10pm comment

Obviously I'm not pasting it, but the hilites are:

Storm is driving him nuts

The center that took over this morning may not be the real center (see my dualing clusters comment above)

Tropical wave he thought was out of the system is still there, moving SW away.

Overall size and energy getting better

Competition is on between what may be the final center and what might reform to the SW

He hasn't seen this effect in storms with this long of a history - usually a Pacific phenominon.

None of this changes the possibility of a major hurricane striking the Mex/Tex Gulf coasts

If the northern center was to take over and crank, there's enough trof left to ensure that Central GC residents will be staying tuned.

etc.

If you want the whole and rest of the story from the man himself, you'll have to sign up for their 30 day free trial.

Steve

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:19 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

nice call colleen!!

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:27 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Thanks, Gary.

My brother bought me a Q&A Weather book for Christmas 2 years ago and I finally opened it up and looked at, LOL! It makes a little more sense when I can see what they see.

Besides, for 5 years (you think I would have learned after 3 years) the NHC has been right for the most part and I have been wrong. So, I figured this year I was not going to try and buck the system, and just watch stuff as it pans out.

(British Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:29 PM

Cuba - no watches or warnings?

Hey guys,
well doesnt she keep us on our toes! Claudette certainly is gonna be one to remember. She looked excellent earlier today, but now not so good. I am in the same boat as the rest who thinks this is her re-organising. I am a little surprised at the fact there are no Watches or Warnings for western Cuba, especially given the fact the storm is heading now to the northwest, and may reform a little north of the current location too! Also interesting how a few of the models are now dropping there westwards swing once she enters the Gulf, and now take her more northerly. Still expect her to become a hurricane before landfall... wherever she moves onshore at!

Regards

Ricreig

(User)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:30 PM

Nails Hitting Heads

In reply to:

No one's out of the woods until it passed your area. Floridians are no more out of the woods than Texans. Statements like that are the ones that keep people off guard and unprepared.

Collleen; AttaGirl. One thing we NEVER want to do is to understimate a powerful force such as a Tropical Storm or Hurricane. Until it disolves away into distant memory, we never want to become complacent and thereby unprepared. Anyone living in the tropical areas ALWAYS needs to watch every storm... just in case.

Those of us that are weather watchers, experts and just interested are all human and apt to make human mistakes. When it comes to making mistakes about Tropical weather, well, we, none of us, can afford to forget they can and do kill people. The one mistake we can all prevent is being unprepared.

Atta Girl!!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:31 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Models are not budging. Its west or Claudette is out to fool the world.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:32 PM

Re: Bastardi out with a 4:10pm comment

Hey Steve,

So Bastardi is saying two competing centers, dumbelling around each other? That would explain the 'apparent' movement to the NNE...

(Weather Master)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:37 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

This storm is just full of too many suprises, and I love it. Even though I have a few more gray hairs, and the season is still young. Colleen remember Elena? She passed Tampa and our local mets said there was nothing to worry about. Next thing I knew, here came the rain and wind and I was out in my yard in the middle of the night tryin go put stuff up. Then she changed her mind again before making landfall and decided to visit our Gulf Coast friends! I say don't let your guard down until landfall!

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:37 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Well, not exactly....

Compare the 00z, the 06z, the 12z and the 18z...you see a consistant shift east from almost all the models with each run...now with a new center, and the better upper level data we should see later tonight, we might get some very interesting runs at 00z and 06 tonight.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:40 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

If the center is reforming to the NW nearer the newest blow up of convection, it looks to be near 20N and 85W. If the center is a bit east of that location, it will be the first time that convection has blown up to the west of the center. Does anyone think this storm will continue to pulse until it finally makes landfall?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:42 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Don't let the guard down Colleen. I see the center and its slowly moving toward the middle of the Yucatan Channel. The SW portion of this low is dying. The center is relocated. You can see the circulation changing to wrap towards the new center. Cheers!!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:48 PM

Re: Bastardi out with a 4:10pm comment

Kinda clyde,

He said yesterday around noon that his ECMWF ideas were toast because the wave had already split off SW of the system. That apparently was something else. And now he said the wave is separated to the west of the center and that it was the line that looked like it wanted to wrap in but instead took off.

He didn't come out and say anything definite on competing centers, but did mention that there is a northern center and apparently one that may form to its SW. The biggest thing I got from his 4:10pm update was that once this is resolved, Claudette's got a chance to deepen big time. He said potential Cat-3 which is what I've been saying since Tuesday (2 or 3).

Steve

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Jul 10 2003 05:49 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

I think the dominant center is now under a burst of convection located at about 18.5/83 or due east of where the fix was. As I watched the vis. loop you could actually see the vortex racing into this location...it was exposed for a while. EDS.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 06:00 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Just watched the TWC tropical update. Claudette looks really ragged right now. But storms, like most people, have personalities, and if I had to sum up Claudette in a word, it would be tenacious. I think you're right Steve, if she can just get her act together for an extended period, she is going to reach cat. 2 or 3. She's been a survivor from the beginning.

PS- Look at that, I'm a weather hobbiest! Who knew I'd ever think of 50+ things to say about the weather.

Ricreig

(User)

Thu Jul 10 2003 06:01 PM

...and speaking of comparisons

Jason,

Which of the models seems in your opinion to be doing the best with this storm?

Also, it seems that I remember last year, your station/web site had an animated model plot online??? I couldn't find it when perusing your station's web site. Did I just miss it or was it not there, or am I remembering wrong....eg...senility doing to me again?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 06:04 PM

Satellite imagery question

Quick question... is there a link where you can see the entire "life" of Claudette on a visible or WV loop?

Thanks!
Allison

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 06:10 PM

Re: ...and speaking of comparisons

Don't get me started on our website...suffice it to say that it wasn't ours...

I'm not trusting any of them...rarely ever do...but I am watching intently the overall trends of all of them...

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 06:17 PM

Clyde......

PS- Look at that, I'm a weather hobbiest! Who knew I'd ever think of 50+ things to say about the weather.

ROFLOL!!! I'm a "Weather Guru" (I think) with a 140+ things to say.

Then again, I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last September in Buffalo.

(Weather Master)

Thu Jul 10 2003 06:17 PM

RADAR VIEWS

Cuban radar and long range Key West radar show the outer bands of our storm.

http://www.met.inf.cu/radar.asp
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 06:24 PM

Re: No west component recenter or movement?

Doug---the last recon report did mention that the center was 5nm east of the fixed position, so it did move eastward. Notice that they also mentioned Western Cuba in their last update, so they must be thinking the storm MAY affect Cuba in some way, shape or form. What that tells me is that they are thinking it will go further north and west than WNW and maybe just brush the Yucatan Peninsula instead of crossing as was first thought.

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 06:29 PM

Re: Cuba - no watches or warnings?

Hmm....

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 06:31 PM

LOL

I'm a weather Master. Do what it what you will. I wonder if that makes /it/ an official weather weenie? Guess you'd have to ask my wife? Buffalo last September, eh? I was there last July and will be up there in August to see my mother-in-law remarry. I didn't want to stay at a Holiday Inn Express so I stayed at my mother-in-law's in Cuba, NY (not to be confused with the western tip of Cuba).

Time to research!

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 06:52 PM

Re: LOL

I was looking at the Gulf of Mexico Water Vapor loop and I see the upper low still and I also notice a large area of dry air coming southward out of Texas...Is that the trough? Im still learning so Im not sure but I was also wondering if that could keep Claudette from going to far into the Western Gulf of Mexico. Can someone help me please. Thanks

HanKFranK

(User)

Thu Jul 10 2003 07:10 PM

descrambler?

i can only hope that the upside of working outside all day and not having weather access is giving me a better big picture of what's going on while avoiding jumping on all the short term trends. maybe it's a good thing... the cutting edge of forecasting (guesscasting in my case) is a very fickle place.. the big picture tends to win out. usually.
so, observations. as far as consistency.. one big thing has changed since this time yesterday. claudette is no longer flying westward. the center is now responding to other influences than the ridge.. jumping due to shearing and trying to shift into the 'sweet spot' on the flank of the upper low in the gulf... claudette gave up on charging westward and eliminating itself as a u.s. threat.. something not many recent storms have done.
the nhc has been reading the storm fairly well.. timing of events has been a little off and so has intensity.. but not by much. so i'll stay with their interpretation of things for the most part.. do think claudette will intensify a great deal more in the long run than they forecast, however. it keeps pulsing in terms of intensity, but the overall trend is toward better organization.. the things that could have killed claudette have probably failed, and the storm is now going to hurt somebody, somewhere.
as far as future track i'm not willing to paint a bullseye anywhere... though i'm in the texas/north mexico school of thought. as one of our resident mets has mentioned, with our next recon fix and the new model initializations with claudette in the right place doing the right thing.. we should get a much better idea this evening.
one factor that i think may play very heavily into the future is claudette's history of responding slowly to influences. synoptically the ridge breakdown and the weakening of the upper low haven't affected the storm as early as forecast.. so the track has been more exaggerated in terms of trends. west longer than forecast, faster than forecast.. now maybe it will move northwest longer than forecast.
in other words, i'm a little biased towards gdfl and nogaps runs.
one other thing of note: the northern gulf coast and florida.. i'm not willing to go with those places when other options exist. for years now, in most every instance tropical cyclones have avoided hitting the u.s. when they could plow westward into mexico or central america.. or recurved early. in this case the southern option is not just given as viable by models.. but very much preferred. so if i had to choose between morgan city and tampico.. i'd go with tampico in a heartbeat. as far as florida being a target.. naw.
away from claudette, the wave approaching the islands may have a little more to it than is being mentioned.. and the one near the cape verdes isnt too shabby for july. at mid latitudes.. this time of year the area off the east coast isnt a bad place to look. have a feeling something will develop off there before too much longer.
anyway, longest post in a while. nothing concrete on threats.. other than to say that claudette has much more potential than the average july storm.
take it easy, all
HF 0014z11july

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 07:58 PM

Re: descrambler?

Just reviewed NHC 8PM advisory - It's weakening but I looked at the Monterray satellite site and it does not look like it's in a weakening mode. Still going NW but the NHC satellite site makes it look like it is going due North for the last couple hours. I am confused and probably missing something as they have a lot more expertise then me

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:12 PM

Re: descrambler?

the center keeps jumping.

(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:25 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Claudette

Just a note to let you know that I've updated my thoughts in the Storm Forum. Time to relax with a movie (and keep a promise - wives don't see too much of us during the season). After that I'll catch up on about 150 posts

Cheers,
ED

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:29 PM

Weather Weenie

My wife knew when she married me that she was marrying one, she just had no idea how big of one I was...

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:29 PM

New Vortex Msg...

Interesting....pressure up to 1013...yuck.

Center Fix 19 33 N, 85 32 W...Max winds 39 kts in the E quad.

Claudette really has been knocked down this afternoon.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:34 PM

Re: New Vortex Msg...

NHC has seemed pretty baffled today.

Even if she weakens, she'll more than likely fire up in a big way before long.

I'm not sure that the NHC has a very good feel on where she's going at the moment.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:40 PM

I gotta agree HF

South Texas is looking like the most logical place for landfall. I'm getting more convinced that the big high pressure behind the trof (that's what it is droop) is going to at least block any northward motion for a few days after a point if not downright steer it westward. Local mets say the high should reach the Gulf Sat or Sun.

Steve

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:41 PM

Re: New Vortex Msg...

I think she will shake it off, look at her past. The LABAR 00 has shifted east ( just as JK stated they may ) Also the 12z NOGAPS is (was) a little funky. Hang in there Jason and keep feeding back

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:43 PM

Re: New Vortex Msg...

You sure they have the right vortex up?

It actually looks better to me than it did a couple hours ago...

Link-----> http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trpirfl1.html

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:53 PM

Re: New Vortex Msg...

It was the 2357z pass thru the east side, so that new convection on that side was just firing as they passed thru..they might have been ahead of the new development....subsequent passes should clear that up.

The big news in that pass was the big west jump in the center fix. Just looked at the new 00z trop models and they are still trending east with the lbar headed to the same place Bill made landfall.

(Weather Master)

Thu Jul 10 2003 08:53 PM

Re: New Vortex Msg...

Pressure can't be 1013. Current pressure at Cozumel is already less than that and it is 1013 at Grand Cayman which is far from the center.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:07 PM

Re: New Vortex Msg...

It can be...but remember this is a fluid situation...there could be multiple centers and recon could have found an older decaying one. There are several possible solutions for the higher pressure report.

I'll admit, I've never seen a storm like this one.

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:07 PM

Young Droops ??

Good questions, Young Droop. I'll try and answer them to the best of my non-meteorologist ability.

What you are looking at over Texas is a trough associated with a low pressure system in the upper Midwest. Whether or not that effects Claudette depends on how far south the trough goes. It does not look to me as if this one will dig down far enough to sweep her up. However, there is another area of low pressure just entering New Mexico.
With a hurricane, timing is everything as far as landfall (or no landfall) goes. The TS/Hurricane is going to take the easiest route it can, and if the high pressure system doesn't move, it will go around it. I look at it this way: I'm standing in front of a mountain and need to get to the other side. I'm not in any hurry, so I have to decide whether or not I want to climb all the way up the mountain, wearing myself out, or should I just walk around the base of the mountain, which is much less work? Make sense?
All of this, of course, will depend on the jetstream and how it affects the the low and high pressure areas. If the jet stream is further north, the ridge/trough won't reach that far south, and vice versa.
You were correct when you said you saw the trough, but I don't believe that their is any dry air in there. Dry air is depicted by an orangie-looking color on the WV images. So here are some of the things you have to look for when trying to determing the path of a storm:
*High pressures/ridges & where they go or don't go
*Low pressures/troughs & where they go or don't go.
*How strong the low pressure/high pressure areas are
*The jetstream and it's plan of action
*How fast the storm is moving
*How strong the upper level winds are
There are probably lots of other things too, that I haven't mentioned because I don't know about them.

An easy way to look and see where the low and high pressure systems and their ridges and troughs are is on Weather.com, and it will give you a good indication of what the storm will do.

I hope this helps. If anyone finds anything incorrect in my post, feel free to correct me---I'm still learning, too.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:18 PM

Re: Young Droops ??

Hey Thanks Coleen, that was a big help...Actually that was exactly what I wanted to find out so thanks alot.

Mary K.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:19 PM

Re: Young Droops ??

Colleen thanks for that reminder. I forget from year to year what to look for on these storms. I know it is too soon to tell yet but it is starting to remind me of October 2001. I have a heck of a time remembering the name of that storm. All I know is that we expected it to hit on a Sat or Sunday and we were at the office shutting everything down on Friday instead. By the time we got everything secured, the worst of the storm had passed. I am on call out duty again this year for battening down the hatches since I live about 3 miles away from the office.

I am hoping that this turns into a little rain for us and no trouble for anyone else.

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:22 PM

Re: Young Droops ??

You are very welcome. I'm just passing along what other people taught me.

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:22 PM

Re: New Vortex Msg...

Great point. You expressed that at 6 also. I am by far an expert but have lived on the G coast all my life... this is getting a little strange. There is some serious timimg issues coming up as for direction but I think she will be a well built storm. We all on the G coast need to watch as this has been said by most here!

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:27 PM

Mary.....

I believe that the name of that storm was Elena. I know it was during football season, if that's any help.

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:31 PM

Re: Young Droops ??

Hey, that was a pretty good rundown! Pretty cool indeed. You may want to send that in a fill in a the blank test format to... well never mind. I think it is great

(Weather Master)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:37 PM

Re: Young Droops ??

Thanks Colleen, I needed that!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:38 PM

West Again

Looks like she may be moving WNW again and starting her re-strengthening. She looks to graze the NE tip of the Yucatan in the next 12 hours or so, then who knows. Still think it is completely a Mexico problem, but I have been wrong many times before.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:43 PM

Mary---

The storm was Gabrielle, I believe.

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:48 PM

Colleen

Great post to young droop////

Elena was in 85....I spent 48 hrs in my EOC on the Fl west coast---I called the turn toward the Fl west coast 2 hrs before NHC or anyone else picked it up, recalled all my people---and then watched the you know what hit the cyclonic system ( aka the fan)....that was a close call for Tampa Bay.

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:49 PM

Re: Mary.....

Labor day, 1985

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:52 PM

Re: West Again

Well the firest words that come to mind when looking at this storm is "A mess". It has become more ragged then what was seen earlier today, but thats a given when some shear from SW is still present. Now that the center is near 20n/85w with a NW movement one would think this may miss the Yucatan and move right throught the straight or just barely clip the Yucatan. Theres been quite a problem in locating the center and getting a good fix. Last fix from recon was pressure of 1013 mb form 993mb. This of coarse is a problem and doubt its pressure went up 20mbs.

Forecast remains uncertain, although models have shifted eastward a little, but still pointing towards western gulf, with exception being the LBAR which brings it towards LA. The high to the east and upper low to west seem to be steering this Northwestward, how long this last is any body's guess.

Also, nicely written Colleen.

Justin in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:55 PM

Re: Mary.....

I must say that there is some good analysis going on here. I enjoy reading everyone's posts. I am interested in knowing who is either in school or has a degree in meterology? Regardless though I enjoy hearing from everyone.

Justin in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 10 2003 09:57 PM

Re: descrambler?

HANKFRANK...what do you mean by something developing off the East Coast?? What area do you think has potential or what area should we be watching?

MikeC

(Admin)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:00 PM

Claudette

I'm on the road for weeks and we get a june storm and a gulf July storm. I'm barely having time to check on it so sorry for the lack of updates. I'm in the middle of changing jobs so so far this season I haven't been able to give the site as much love as in the past. And with this going on it's HIGHLY aggrivating

.

Thanks to everyone here for keeping me and everyone updated! I won't be back home until the 20th.

(Weather Master)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:12 PM

Re: Claudette

Don't worry Mike, concentrate on what you have to do and all of us here will hold down the fort. We'll keep the light on for ya!

(Moderator)

Thu Jul 10 2003 10:38 PM

Re: Colleen

Elena 85. I was in Gulf Shores, AL for that and we got the best part! I learned a great forecasting tool from my father on that one! Our current girl may prove to be something like that!