Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:03 AM |
Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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Tropical Storm Bonnie sputtered a bit earlier this evening, but she has regained some convection and is slowly moving to the north. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida panhandle eastward to the mouth of the Suwanee River.
Current intensity remains at 40 knots, however, NHC forecasts a slow increase in intensity to 60 knots - just below hurricane status - prior to landfall near Fort Walton Beach on Thursday morning. Residents in the Watch area should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Bonnie and take necessary precautions if the Watch is upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning on Wednesday.
Tropical Storm Charley developed an impressive Central Dense Overcast (CDO) this evening. Charley, with sustained winds of 55 knots, continues to move toward the west northwest at 22 knots. Charley continues to maintain excellent outflow and has a large circulation envelope. The following Watches and Warnings have been issued:
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD
INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE.
I expect Charley to reach hurricane intensity on Wednesday - rapid intensification is possible with this cyclone. In the long term, Charlie has the potential to pose a threat to the Florida peninsula, and Florida residents should plan now for the possibility of a significant weather event on Saturday. This would be especially true if Charley passes north of Jamaica rather than south of it on Wednesday. It is certainly a system that nees to be monitored closely as the weekend approaches...and we'll do just that for both Bonnie and Charley.
ED
Event Related Links
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:20 AM |
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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Bonnie looks like she's making a comeback, but boy is she a small storm. I'm reminded of a tropical depression from a few years ago - I think T.D. #4 from 2000 - that was a very small swirl of clouds. Bonnie's different in that it is sustaining some deep convection, but the overall impacts from this system aren't going to be felt over a very large region no matter what happens between now and landfall. That doesn't mean that everyone shouldn't be prepared, though. I had the privilege to have Craig Fugate, the director of the Fl. Division of Emer. Mgmt., speak at my local AMS chapter's banquet back in April and he spoke of changing outcomes - everyone in the affected areas shuld take the initiative to be prepared for anything and change their own outcomes. The warnings and information will be out there - people just need to heed it. I'll be interested to see what the global models do once they have the Gulfstream sampling data; should give us a clearer picture of the eventual track of Bonnie.
Similarly, it should give us an indication of the environment that Charley will head into down the road. Once we get to this time tomorrow, though, and the sampling data from the NW Caribbean is ingested into the models, we should get an even clearer picture on this storm. It's rapid forward speed is making a westward path less likely, but people in the western Gulf should still be watching it just in case. With that mass of clouds, it's hard to tell where exactly the low level center is without visible imagery, but I'd place it just south of the center of the mass. Wouldn't be shocked to see an eye pop out sometime overnight, but also wouldn't be shocked to see it maintain status quo for awhile. The basic models - like the BAM_ series, the A98E, etc - have really converged along with the GFDL on a Tampa Bay track for Charley in the next 4 days or so. It's strange to note that they are even more closely clustered than they are for Bonnie. Nonetheless, much can and will change and everyone in the Gulf should be mindful of the situation.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:22 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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Thanks for the new thread, Ed. I think tomorrow will be the most crucial day as far as Charley goes. If the NHC is correct, and it stays on that WNW course for the next 24 hours, wouldn't it pass to the west of Jamaica? I'm gonna keep checking the loops.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:30 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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Colleen:
Being on St. pete beach area in the same shape you are. By tomorrow afternoon I think we will be more sure if going to get a hit on Tampa Bay.
Dave
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:37 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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Bonnie to be quite honest disappoints me, may never make hurricane status.This will be lucky for quite a few folks.The one thing I take from Bonnie is that how perfect it must of had been when Camille developed.I was but a young boy then an impact that has lasted a lifetime.HF you were right, by no means a comparison.Charley now it is ALMOST perfect it will develop but just not as fast.The track right now I would not lay my bottom dollar on it.I would wait and see where crosses Cuba then make a call.The weather at times is tough enough to call just for an approaching cool front much less throw in the qulams of a hurricane.The angle of approach of Charley shall depend on maybe 3>5 degrees of W movement.This movement will not happen until Charley slows down.A body in motion wishes to remain in motion(until an outside force is imposed).
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:48 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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Question for you Ed. Even though Charley has a growing CDO, the large envelop you mentioned I just don't see, as it seems the circulation judging from the dvorak is within the CDO. Maybe its deceiving because we don't have visible, but it seems that the total circulation pattern isn't that large. Also, do you think that we will feel the effects of Charley on the east coast in Melbourne? Seems thta if it contunues at its current forward speed, it couldn't get very strong. Are you thinking this may slow down a bit before landfall if it follows the eastern track. That is, do you think it would cross the peninsula and cross into the Atlantic say at Daytona? (given the current guidance )? I know you can't give a hard answer. Just want to know if we should be prepared here in Melbourne> Thanks
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:53 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name)
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ok.. wrote this..adding to this.. watching TWC ... want to mention not only does he look like he is moving NW he is beginning to stretch in the direction.. something to think on.
tomorrow morning mothers all over Miami are going to wake up, look at the news/weather and think...
school supplies vs hurricane supplies..
going to get a lot of attention tomorrow.. getting close to prime time for Charley..
....
Okay...
so is like this...
Someone, somewhere in South Florida is going to have to deal with a strong threat of Charlie affecting their weather on the way to parts north.
The problem is not where Charlie will end up as much as where he goes on his way there.
1... west of keys
2...thru keys (eww...whimpering here)
3...oh lets not talk about north keys and SE fla..long shot anyway
As I see it right now.. Charley is going more NW than WNW. He is going so fast that I figure by the time my son and I online got done arguing that one he had traveled the distance from downtown Miami to North Miami Beach.. again "ewww"
So... aside from the "how strong?" "how big" and "how fast" my biggest question here is at what angle is he aiming for Tampa Bay.
Nice to say Tampa Bay but if he comes in around Marathon than the upper Keys and SE florida is on NE quandrant with tons of weather.
Watch.. he'll probably stall in the straits when steering currents go flat.. mark my words, would be ironically pathetically funny replay of Donna. But Donna stalled a lot, Charley never has..
Charley has gone chug chug zoom zoom across approximately over 400 miles in one day. I know I'm not a math major but... approx 25 mph foward speed over 24 hours.. you do that math..
I'm glad I'm not Billy Wagner tonight because he has big decisions to make down in the Keys. Normally he could wait a bit but with this ongoing forward speed and the tracks encompassing the lower keys.. he has to act as soon as possible. And he always does which is why I admire him greatly. So...if some announcement is made tomorrow morning that they will start a evacuation of non-residents in the lower keys tomorrow sometime.. IF..you all know that Miamians everywhere are going to stop, look, listen and run to Publix. Or at least make shopping lists.
Could go west of the Keys.. and then slam into those bay cities on the West Coast but..I think that's not the most likely scenario with her current motion being closer to NW than WNW.
And, while I've been writing this he probably went further than the average commute to work for most the people reading this... think on that one. Don't think too long or it will have gone another five miles.
Where will he hit Cuba?
At what angle?
How big will he get?
How big/strong will he get?
How many times will the models be pulled left and right over the next 24 hours before we know who is really under the gun as he makes his way towards a probable West Coast landfall.
I think a track blending Cleo from the South and then Donna track takes over...
My guess..
Good night.. we should all get some rest, we won't rest much tomorrow night.
And if Billy is reading this somewhere...sorry I can't make you laugh tonight but do me a favor and go light some candles in the grotto for me...
Bobbi
| HURRICANE EYE |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 01:14 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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I agree that it appears to be moving just north of wnw and by morning he will have an eye with 90 mph winds and will land fall on the ne side of jamaica or skirting the ne coastline while maintaining its strength, after passing the island charley will intensify to 125mph before coming ashore in the swamp land area of cuba roughly around 81west long , than emerging into the gulf were it reintensifies back to 125-130 mph landfalling south of tampa bay with the eye wall traveling ne thru the state,this is just a guess so just be prepared and watch the nhc track. good night
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 01:14 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name)
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Am I mistaken that there is a low out in front of Charley that for the time being is causing a slight N movement?
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 11 2004 01:21 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name)
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I don't know but something seems to be disrupting him. Looks like the CDO just fractured in two. Another chat line says that QS shows no closed off system (no west wind). Is this possible....he's still moving too fast.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 01:27 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name)
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I would think that a W wind would be noticable even at this speed.I know on some weaker storms moving this fast that sometimes a west wind is not easliy obtain.This one has good structure.Maybe a fluke.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 02:31 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name)
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I hope no one starts a " it's jogged to the north...look out Miami" line. And this storm's name doesn't begin with an "A". This will be a E GOM storm, it's not splitting in half, it's right about where it was forecast to be at 16.4N 73.8W. It is still a tropical storm, it does not have an eye yet but it will. Jamaica has a problem, Eastern Cuba has a bigger problem, and the west coast of Florida should be ready for the worse case. In fact all of Florida from the SW corner all the way to the state line of Georgia should be ready for at least Cat1 effects at some point from friday till Sun/Mon. It's T-numbers held at 3.0 this morning.Bonnie's inched back up to 2.0, maybe this is her last shot at coming up with something to remember her by, otherwise she's a tight little ball of wind getting soaked up by the front.
But please give the Miami area a break; after living here for over 40 years, the last thing I want to see again is their whole freaking car-driving city on I-95 heading north so the rest of us are left with no options
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 04:00 AM |
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Charley starting to weaken again?
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The western side of the cdo has warmed in it would not suprize me if it fall apart again.
This storm fades bombs fades bombs! What is it with this storm!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 04:08 AM |
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Re: Charley starting to weaken again?
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where do you see this weakening???and when has it weakened? it hasnt at all and sat images show continued strengthning.!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 04:24 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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Ed certainly named this thread correctly.
Bonnie is like the Energizer Bunny(oops), she keeps going and going and going.
Charley on the other hand will be a tough call. Will Jamaica terrain knock the wind out of him, or will the mid level low over the Caymans deflect him over the Yucatan or Cuba?
Over the last few hours Charley has changed from a near perfect circle to a hammerhead shape. With the apex pointed dead at Jamaica. If he can use this plow shape to his advantage then he is on to the southeastern GOM.
A good Vis Sat shot on both storms would be nice at this point.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 04:39 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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URNT12 KNHC 110815
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/0815Z
B. 25 DEG 25 MIN N
90 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1448 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 160 DEG 44 KT
G. 062 DEG 13 NM
H. 1001 MB- 3mb pres. drop in 1:45
I. 18 C/ 1462 M
J. 21 C/ 1462 M-1C drop inside ctr
K. 20 C/ NA
L. OPEN WEST
M. C20
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 0702A BONNIE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 44 KT NE QUAD 0811Z.
going and going!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 05:18 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
CHARLEY HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED
ON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA....
SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST BRINGS THE 34 KT WIND RADII JUST SOUTH OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM
DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 05:27 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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0845z IR shot of Charley beginning to get a saw toothed pattern over the eastern semicircle. 6 "teeth" visible from NE thru SSE. Not usually a good sign if maintained.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 06:20 AM |
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Analyze what we know
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ok.. let's try to get serious a second with some analyzing. Let's assume the current track stays accurate and Charlie lands as a Friday the 13th storm just south of Tampa Bay.
Can those in the know here tell us hobbiests, based on the current data, what he will land as? Cat 1? Cat 2? More? And, where do the strongest winds/storms/surge lie?
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 06:22 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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I don't think that Bonnie is going to do much. She has already weakened, I think we have to watch out for Charley. Especially here in Central Florida from Tampa to Jax. Going to be a rough ride for the next couple of days. Charley is forcasted to be a high cat 1 to low cat 2. Its time to batten down the hatches.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 06:29 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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URNT12 KNHC 111004
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1004Z
B. 25 DEG 31 MIN N
90 DEG 32 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1434 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 218 DEG 52 KT
G. 140 DEG 22 NM
H. 1001 MB
I. 17 C/ 1479 M
J. 23 C/ 1486 M
K. 20 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C15
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 0702A BONNIE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 0957Z.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 06:29 AM |
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Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
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reading through posts here. this room is like a bunch of reporters at an execution reporting in any and every rumor to home base... every trend is mentioned
a watch is up for the keys
its a fast moving tropical storm, i imagine cuba will slow it down a little (someone comment on this please)
watch the whole pattern over a few hours not every new image on the NRL and dvorak...thats my advice... movement is a blend
as for west wind... maybe by the time the planes got to where it was going it left..
reading everyone, talk later
news here is in pre-hype mode but more impt than anything else... "heavy winds and rain" are in fridays forecast for Miami area
so when does Cuba get warnings
somewhere here please explain how that works, ive had a lot of people ask me why Cuba didnt have specific warnings in place
good morning, going to get coffee
my son woke me before the alarm to tell me he's on the plane and then threw data at me about charley and bonnie, sounded like this mornings discussion here... going to be a long long day
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 06:30 AM |
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Re: Charley Recon Airborne
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URNT11 KNHC 111012
97779 10124 40172 68000 56300 11019 58602 /4588
RMK AF968 0203A CHARLEY OB 01
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 11 2004 06:38 AM |
Re: Charley Recon Airborne
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http://net-waves.com/weather/td02.php
Look at that blow up of convection(Cdo) right over the eye over tropical storm Bonnie(Yes a eye was reported) with that being said it is like throwing a match in a lake of gas! Can you say booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 06:57 AM |
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Re: Bonnie WV signature
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Noticed a beaver tail outflow to the SW. WV imagery has more of an exhaust plume toward the Bay of Campeche.
Interesting patterns.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 11 2004 06:57 AM |
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Re: Charley Recon Airborne
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Bonnie has grown significantly in size and is still west of 90 degrees. If I were in Boothvillle-Venice this morning, I would start paying close attention.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 07:31 AM |
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going shopping...
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see u later
doing a fast publix.. now not later
cause might not be much left by the time i get off work tonight
saw franklins eyes on tv..could not say miami is too out of it...a little right or left of track.. not in middle but still too high probs not to go to publix now..working all day
will be on later
hi guys
by guys
bobbi
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 07:38 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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All right who woke up Bonnie ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 07:45 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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Yikes!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:14 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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bonnie is growing in over all size.winds up 50mph press still falling 1000mb she looks like a storm now and could be on her way to a hurricane.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:15 AM |
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WOW
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This si shaping up to be a very interesting day. I look for an extension west of the tropical storm watch for Bonnie. She is showing no signs of a NE turn and is getting close to where, even with the turn, she would clip SE LA. Also could be going through thet very rapid intensification we have been expecting. Could still be a cane at landfall.
As for Charley, He will be a Cat 2 by the end of the day. Also, he appears to be moving more westerly early this morning. If he goes south of Jamaica (A long shot at this point), then all bets are off and the track will again shift back west.
If Jason K is awake, do you still question the models. Also, can someone let us know what Joe B's thoughts are.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:15 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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If anyone wants a quick synopsis of where Charlie's going, read the Tampa Bay Area Discussion. It isn't very encouraging if you live here.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:15 AM |
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Quick Link to Kingston Jamacia
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Wind from the SE (130 degrees) at 35 MPH (30 KT) gusting to 46 MPH (40 KT) Pressure 29.94
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html
I'm actually excited about this one, our office has a convention in Hollywood Florida this Thursday through Sunday. It's a Westin right on the Ocean, I mean RIGHT on the Ocean. During high tide the waves break against the sea wall.
I figure a little jog to the East and we'll have something to watch
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:26 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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Holy Hannah! is all I can say. I think the entire state of Florida---maybe even some of the eastern coast...will be engulfed in watches/warnings before this day is out.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:31 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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Can anyone hazard a guess as to what impact Charley woud likily have on flights out of TIA. I'm suppose to leave early Saturday morning to take my younger son to college.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:34 AM |
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TIA
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I would imagine that all flights would be cancelled out of TIA due to Charley and/or Bonnie. Local mets are hinting at more watches/warnings going up at 11am. Hope that helps.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:35 AM |
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Link to discussion
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Hi Colleen, could you post the link?
Thanks!!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:38 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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Looks like our good buddy Jason was right on about Bonnie's potential to explode... sure looks rather impressive on the IR... just started picking up some outerbands of Bonnie on the long distance radar loops out of NO, and should be able to closely moniter her forward motion throughout the day.... be interesting to see some good vis loops this morning... also agree with the earlier post about Charley... looks to be going more west this am... stay tuned
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:42 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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Charley did move due west for the past few hours. Is this a trend or a jog??? I think the NHC is asking the same question. Bonnie track further west than expected as well.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:46 AM |
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Re: Link to discussion
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It's right on the front page of CFHC, before the main stories. Just keep looking down until you see Tampa Bay Area Discussion.
let me know if you find it.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:50 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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Quote:
Can anyone hazard a guess as to what impact Charley woud likily have on flights out of TIA. I'm suppose to leave early Saturday morning to take my younger son to college.
No brainer, all flights cancelled if this track comes close to verifying. Furthermore, airlines quit sending planes into an affected area in advance because they dont want aircraft stuck and out of service or damaged. I suggest you either get in a car and leave today, not tomorrow or stick it out.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:52 AM |
Re: Link to discussion
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Found it!, thanks
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:52 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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I do not think that was movement to the West. It appears to be pretty steady in its direction. Still looks like a Florida Storm to me, regardless..
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:54 AM |
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Charley vortex message
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A quick message before I've got to go...looks like Charley's held his own but gained a 12 mi. wide eye in the process. Nothing spectacular, but he's on his way.
000
URNT12 KNHC 111223
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1223Z
B. 16 DEG 19 MIN N
75 DEG 24 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1368 M
D. 55 KT
E. 299 DEG 08 NM
F. 062 DEG 76 KT
G. 301 DEG 007 NM
H. 995 MB
I. 17 C/ 1521 M
J. 21 C/ 1525 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/3.0 NM
P. AF968 0203A CHARLEY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 76 KT NW QUAD 1221Z.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 08:54 AM |
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West Movement
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I noticed that westward movement on the WV imagery. It could just be a jog, but the further west it goes before beginning to make that NW/N/NE turn could have a huge impact on what the Florida Gulf Coast gets. Forecasters here are saying it will be over the western tip of Cuba than into the extreme eastern GOM.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:00 AM |
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Re: going shopping...
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I don't think it was a question that a jog to the west would not make it a Florida storm, but any divergence to the west would be important for this reason: where it crosses Cuba. If it passes through the middle of Cuba, it won't be a strong coming out, but if it just crosses the western tip of Cuba it's not going to make a big difference.
Also: the question asked about TIA and flights was a valid question. There are some people here who just lurk and don't know what effects a hurricane will have on other activities. It wasn't a "no brainer" it was a question that deserved a decent answer.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:02 AM |
|
Re: Charley vortex message
|
Notice the position...Almost a full degree south of the current listed position. Looking at the sat pics it appeared to be south of where they had it. I could be wrong. I seem to remeber last year that you had to use some kind of formula to figure out the position from the Recon fix.
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:06 AM |
|
|
Re: going shopping...
|
Quote:
I don't think it was a question that a jog to the west would not make it a Florida storm, but any divergence to the west would be important for this reason: where it crosses Cuba. If it passes through the middle of Cuba, it won't be a strong coming out, but if it just crosses the western tip of Cuba it's not going to make a big difference.
Also: the question asked about TIA and flights was a valid question. There are some people here who just lurk and don't know what effects a hurricane will have on other activities. It wasn't a "no brainer" it was a question that deserved a decent answer.
Colleen,
I think the poster meant it was a no brainer for what the airport would do if a hurricane hit tampa. The poster was not implying it was a no-brainer of a question. The answer the poster received was decent and absolutely correct.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:08 AM |
|
bonnie was jealous...
|
never deny a girl storm of attention
shes getting it now
and she will pull Charley up right after her
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:09 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Charley vortex message
|
That NW wind report will more than likely give us Hurricane Charley at 11am. Don't you multiply knts by 1.15 to mph? I think 76 knots would be around 86-87 mph.
Here's something weird that just happened: I got a call from an 800 # and when I answered it said, "This is a call from the Florida Emergency Management (something or other) all lines are busy right now" and then they hung up. It was a recorded message. Do we here in Florida have that new advance warning system in place?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:11 AM |
|
Re: going shopping... hey coleen
|
how encouraging is it when you look at twc forecast for 2 days from now and says "heavy wind and rains" and then 3rd day is "showers"
ummmm dont need a sat to see that one
good luck
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:13 AM |
|
|
Re: going shopping...
|
Yeah, it was. I jumped the gun on that one. I'm trying to get my kids out the door and they are not cooperating.
Sorry if I sounded rude, I did not mean it the way I typed it out.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:13 AM |
|
Re: going shopping...
|
Thank you all. I am a lurker, but a native of the Tampa Bay area, and I've seen many of these storms threaten but then the track changes....you guys know the drill. I'm curious as to how far in advance they'd suspend flights and how quickly they'd reopen them, but I realize that there are probably too many unknowns to answer any of that.
I guess at this point there's nothing we can do except continue to prepare for our trip, and add hurricane preparations to the long list of tasks. Driving is not an option as my son's college destination is California. Leaving early is also not an option....in addition to preparing my home for a possible storm, I'll need to prepare my parents' and sister's homes, as they are currently out of town.
Bleah!
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:13 AM |
|
|
Re: Charley vortex message
|
It was a call from Publix, they are running out of bread and bottled water.. LOL.. Seriously, I do not think so.. But then again you never know..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:14 AM |
|
Emergency Management
|
Yes Colleen I believe we do.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:15 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
Anybody whi really wants to follow how this will play out shoudld fix on the progress of the trough which is clearly seen on the water vapor...Based on what that demonstrates, I think Bonnie will make a sharper turn to the east than forecast meaning more ENE to E once it turns...
Charley's forecast track is totally up in the air I think, depends on speed of arrival for one thing, becaus it looks like a good sized ridge is develpoing behind this trough, and if the trough misses it anything goes.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: going shopping... hey coleen
|
Yeah, no kidding. People in Pasco County are already leaving (by boat) because they have had so much rain there already. My husband just called and said that the phosphate plant in Riverview is in emergency mode (like what the heck is that?) and they are extremely concerened about the Alafia River flooding into their plants there.
I told him this last night. He shook his head like a bobble head because he was watching "Sea Biscuit".
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:17 AM |
|
Not a good time to start crying "Wolf"
|
Toho,
Not a good idea at this time...even if meant as a joke...
This is how panic is perpetuated.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Emergency Management
|
Ok, than it was probably a test. Jeez. I need to step away and tend to Thing 1 and Thing 2. FOFLOL.......those would be my boys.
| St. David |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:22 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
Am I the only one that beleives that Bonnie will go more towards Alabama then Florida? Just a gut feeling that the storm won't be effected as much by the cold front as everyone thinks. Plus I don't see the front moving very fast. now if I still don't see a turn NE by 3 today im going to start
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:26 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
Nope not the only one. Also don't think it will dig as far south as previously thought. therefore, Charley could go west of the current predicted path. Notice the latest run of the BAMM has Charley back in the central gulf.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:31 AM |
|
Re: Not a good time to start crying "Wolf"
|
Anyone that has lived in this area long enough, knows it is a joke.. Publix never calls you when they are out of bread and water, Winndixie does !!
Do not mean to make people edgy, we still have a lot of uncertainty. I lived through Andrew in 1992 in South Miami, so I know what panic is..
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:31 AM |
|
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
It has been about two years since I last frequented this site. The possibility of Charley approaching my area on Friday has brought me back. I will post weather observations from my weather station here in Seminole, FL (just north of St. Petersburg) if the storm approaches as currently forecasted, or if Bonnie makes an unexpected jaunt eastward.
My thoughts on Charley...I see no reason to disagree with the official forecast track. Charley is moving far too fast for the trough to miss it. If the track shifts any, it will be more toward the west. If Bonnie were more formidable than she is, she could delay the influence of the trough on Charley, but Bonnie is too compact of a system for this. I think the NHC's forecast track is about right. Just another 24 hours, and I believe we will be able to pinpoint a fairly accurate landfall location.
God Bless,
Ronn
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:36 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
alot now depends on track and size of bonnie
storms are heat seeking missles..charley will follow bonnie
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:39 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
Quick note about the BAMM..... that whole model set got started at the wrong point to begin with. Charley is a a half of degree further north which makes a difference. I'd throw the whole set out myself, bad run.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:42 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
Just a another note: Bonnie has hit 2.5 on the T-numbers. A hell of a comeback again.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:51 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
No I will stick with what I just said...looked at it all again...the trough is digging down well past San Antonio TX now and a strong push of dry air is well off the NW TX coast pushing generally east-se into the central gulf..this will push Bonnie more east, and my view of it is that this is already occuring as the center now sits right on 90 now...the general elongation of the cloud mass is beginnig to be toward the ene and if you watch the development of the moisture plume ahead of the system you canget a pretty good indication of that as a general direction this is more ene too.
Charley has flattened out some what and that could be temporary; but my bet is that it is feeling the influence of increasingly large Bonnie and the overall shift to the east. Charley may also be influenced by an ULL whch is moving generaly west ahead of it...
It is possible for Charley to shift left of the path and go further west before recurve...But This trough should block it going all the way west.
These are possibilities that I think the current dynamic seems to suggest.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 09:51 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
As I quickly scan the net for data, I've seen two different models MERGE the two storms almost, I repeat almost into one. I'd kinda wondered about the timing last night/ this morning, and I wouldn't put it out of the picture that Bonnie is slow to get where she needs to go and Charley ends up holding hands with her somewhere over North FL/ Atlantic seaboard. That would seem to bad news for LI Phil and that area more than anyone else. I said this last night, I'll say it again: weird season and it just started.
Everyone remember these are still two tropical storms at the moment, no huricanes yet....
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:00 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
Doug in a way we agree totally. There is really only one door for both storms to go through, and thats across C/N FL. I think when someone says Charley will shift further west, they mean further up the coast of Florida. I don't see it any other way myself.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:00 AM |
|
Re: Charley vortex message
|
jth - sorta yes, sorta no. The degrees part is fine; it's the second number, the minutes, that you have to 'decode.' But, it's simple - just divide the number by 60 and you have your decimal degrees. That, 16 degrees 11 minutes (as an example) would be 16.18 degrees.
Colleen - that 76kt wind was at flight level, which I believe was 850mb. There's an additional reduction to the surface from that height which varies by storm (and some storms can even have stronger winds at the surface, though this isn't as common). The recon flight, in the D group, estimated surface winds to be about 55kt - roughly 65mph - though they haven't reached the NE side yet I don't believe.
Working on an explanation for some of what's going on with Bonnie, hope to have that in a little while.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:03 AM |
|
for doug on good writing
|
good thoughts..
yes trough is also making bonnie move faster towards a harder right turn ..in my opinon
think charley notices bonnie and also think he might go more wnw now than he was last night which looked more nw but...big BUT.. think it will make a sharper turn back in its curve towards florida
sort of six of one half a dozen of the other
you win some, you lose some.. so...
that being said remember also.. Charley is a developing system, they both are and because of that they are prone to give us surprises and heartburn
IF this was a Cat 3 down there..we'd be more certain how it would play out
If someone sees Charley slow down please yell out and.. if anyone has some good loops to link to do so.. please
good analysis Doug in my opinon
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:03 AM |
|
More from TWC
|
TWC now has Mike Seidel at Ft. Walton Beach, Jim Cantore on St. George Island, and I just heard they are sending out a third person as well, location TBD. This won't be until later on today, though. Guess the overnight buildup has changed a few minds up there in Atlanta...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:04 AM |
|
Re: Charley vortex message
|
Yes, many counties in Florida (including mine) utlize an Emergency Notification System. I recommend you monitor your local media for possible information. Not sure what part of Florida you are in...
Michael
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:07 AM |
|
|
Craziness & Seriousness
|
>>> That would seem to bad news for LI Phil and that area more than anyone else. I said this last night, I'll say it again: weird season and it just started.
Thanks for your concern, but I'm more than a tad worried for all y'all on the gulf coast. Things are going to be crazy and soon. Anyone with interests from the Keys north to the FL/AL border should finish preparations NOW and know your evac routes. Stock up on supplies if you haven't already.
Folks, please try to stay on topic (excellent posts so far) and keep the idle banter to a minimum.
Also, the recon data are great for those who know how to interpret them, but they clog up the boards. Only post the relevant data (and you know what those are).
Everybody be safe...and if they tell you to leave...and you can...GO!
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:08 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
Nice surprise this morning Bonnie the best she ever has looked.The little low out in front of Charley I believe is affecting Charley's path.The full WV basin view shows it moving W(19N and 83W).I thought last night that Charley was going to ride the hump.Now all he has do is follow the path and go threw the door.It look's to me Charley goes over W Cuba.I have not looked at the Graphic models at PSU but did they acknowledge the low?
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:11 AM |
|
Re: More from TWC
|
What a difference a night makes! Bonnie is looking BETTER THAN EVER. Yeah, Slidel is right down the road from here in Ft. Walton. Things are getting interesting. Anyone think Bonnie has a shot at being a Hurricane now?
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:12 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
Joe Pub,
The models actually initiated at the correct position. The current listed position is almost a full degree north of the actual position.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:16 AM |
|
HWO
|
I fixed it so the Tampa Hazardous weather outlook appears on the front page now, folks may want to look at it right now.
Link to it
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:16 AM |
|
|
|
Models
|
Bonnie & Charley
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:17 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
Its looks like bonnie is getting bigger. Hey joe, I wonder if tim (channel 12) is saying it will hit.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:21 AM |
|
Re: Models
|
The 12Z models are up for Charley at hurricane city. Here's the link. Interesting to say the least. Looks like I might be leaving Tallahassee and headed north!
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL01.html
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:26 AM |
|
Re: Convergence of systems and timing
|
Surfer Tim said Saturday is going to be a bad day for us. The local NWS forecast for friday in jax:
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 88. Windy, with a north wind 10 to 13 mph increasing to between 43 and 46 mph. Winds could gust as high as 69 mph.
That's Friday. Geeeeezzzzz.
As to Charley's location, I was just going by the NHC 8am update. I didn't try to put out any bad info. I always thought they had a pretty good idea where these things were.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:30 AM |
|
|
Charley's Projected Path
|
I'm with the NHC on this one.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:30 AM |
It's kinda hard to tell...
|
Looking at the link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
Is it possible the the meat of the storm will pass on the Eastern side of Jamacia?
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:31 AM |
|
Re: It's kinda hard to tell...
|
I was planning on flying back to Orlando midday Friday, so yes, even for me it's pretty interesting. May have to up it to Tomorrow...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:32 AM |
|
|
|
Re: It's kinda hard to tell...
|
I was just there and thinking the same thing. Could be a direct hit on Jamaica as per NHC forecast, but it could be far more dangerous if Charley skirts around to the east...
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:32 AM |
|
|
Re: It's kinda hard to tell...
|
Wow, Charley's models ARE tranding more to the West now.
Florida is really in for quite a ride with these two storms!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:43 AM |
|
Re:recon Bonnie?
|
URNT11 KNHC 111420
97779 14204 41281 91000 30400 99005 09049 /3174 49905
RMK AF984 0802A BONNIE OB 01
URNT11 KNHC 111434
97779 14344 41271 91000 14900 99005 18152 /2524 49905
RMK AF984 0802A BONNIE OB 03
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:49 AM |
|
Re:recon Bonnie?
|
Hurricane Watch From Al/Fl Border to Suwanee River!!!!!!
With TS Warning
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:51 AM |
|
Bonnie's turnabout
|
I suspect, judging from satellite imagery, that Bonnie's enhancement this morning is partially due to interactions with the frontal/midlatitude environment to it's north. The center is on the NW side of the mass of convection, a rather typical tropical/hybrid structure. If I recall correctly, we saw this with Danny a few years back, maybe even Earl not too far back. She's undergoing strengthening right now it seems, but I wouldn't say explosively. Near-hurricane strength is still a good bet.
You may be wondering how a tropical system can develop within a midlatitude environment, and I'll try to explain it a little. I'm not saying it's the predominant force behind Bonnie's growth, but it's probably playing some role.
Essentially, on a very basic level, there are two types of instabilities - barotropic and baroclinic. Baroclinic is what we actually see in the atmosphere, whereas barotropic is more idealized. However, tropical systems are nearly barotropic, while midlatitude systems are baroclinic in nature. That's the distinction I'd like to make here; the rest is just gory details. In any case, these instabilities drive the formation and growth of these systems.
The tropical case is more simplistic than the midlatitude case under this scenario (though many other factors I won't go into influence only tropical development); in this framework, the midlatitude case can be simplified to the tropical case by making a couple of assumptions. The energies behind the two instabilities are different, however.
Essentially, with interactions with the midlatitude environment, you get an additional set of energy - not an additive thing, just a slight bit more energy available for instability - for the tropical cyclone. The processes are still approximately tropical in nature - and the system is still tropical, particularly considering the warm waters of the Gulf and the core of the system - but I'd be willing to bet a high-resolution (cyclone phase) analysis of the core of Bonnie would suggest that the storm does not a very deep warm-core (tropical) structure.
I'd like to reiterate that this is a very simplified view of things, but may provide a little insight into the current enhancement and appearence of the system.
11am advisory & discussion are out - not much new, though they note the possibility of Bonnie reaching hurricane status in the 12-18hr period before weakening near landfall. Don't see any reason to disagree with that or the track. 11am Charley info still to come.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:52 AM |
|
|
|
11am discussion
|
reconnaissance and satellite data...and reports from NOAA buoy 42001
...Indicate Tropical Storm Bonnie has become much better organized
and has strengthened. Buoy 42001 located about 45 nmi northeast of
the center reported a 10-minute average wind of 41 kt with a gust
to 52 kt. Gradient wind computations using a 10 mb pressure
difference between Bonnie and buoy 42001 indicate near 50-kt winds
are possible. Therefore...the intensity has been conservatively
increased to 45 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 025/05. It appears that Bonnie has
passed north of the mid-level ridge axis that extends westward from
South Florida and is coming under the influence of an approaching
shortwave trough located over the Southern Plains. Bonnie is
expected to gradually accelerate over the next 24 hours and turn
more northeastward later today...if it hasn't done so already. The
global and regional models remain in good agreement on landfall
occurring Thursday morning in the Florida Panhandle. The main
concern is that with the mid-level winds forecast to become
southwest or west-southwesterly by 24 hours...Bonnie could make a
sharp turn more toward the east-northeast or east just before
landfall occurs. This would be to the right of the current forecast
track and this scenario will be closely evaluated for the next
advisory. Due to the uncertainty in the exact location and
intensity at landfall...a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane
Watch have been issued for the previous tropical Strom watch area.
The intensity forecast remains problematic with the burst of deep
convection...tops as cold as -83c...that has developed over the
center this morning. If recon finds an eye or eyewall forming later
this afternoon...then it is possible that Bonnie could become a
hurricane between the 12 and 24 hour time periods...before
weakening occurs due to increasing wind shear just before landfall.
Factors supporting possible strengthening to hurricane intensity
are -- better inner-core wind field organization currently
ongoing...deep convection currently over the center...low shear
expected for the next 12 hours or so...and Bonnie passing over a
warmer Gulf Eddy in 12-18 hours during the nocturnal convective
maximum period tonight and tomorrow morning.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The good news is that Bonnie is not forecasted to make hurricane strength.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:55 AM |
|
|
Re: 11am discussion
|
Charley is now forecasted to become a hurricane later today. Maybe the interaction with Jamaica will prevent any significant intensification. Hopefully he won't do much damage there.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 10:59 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 11am discussion
|
Bonnie is looking in good shape. I think that it's a strong possibility that she'll become a Hurricane before landfall.
hardcoreweather.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:02 AM |
|
possibly a direct hit
|
go figure... would have said last night north of jamaica
this morning would have said.. south of jamaica
at 11am.. this loop... right on jamaica probably
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:08 AM |
|
Re: 11am discussion
|
Other than a possible fix to how Bonnie gets over to the east coast, the NHC is sticking to their guns. They seem to have a desent grip on the next 48 hrs. Charley seems to be in much better shape then they thought; we could possibly see an eye somewhere between Jamaica and Cuba. Jamaica is more of a "hilly" island, went there in 1980. It might scratch Charley a little bit, but not much. Western Cuba is Florida like in many ways, plus narrow to boot. Not much stopping him now from being whatever he's meant to be when he hits the gulf.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:09 AM |
|
question?
|
When is that next system up around Wisconsin supposed to make it down this way?
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
watching unfolding developments of the interplay between elements in the atmosphere.. the NEXT big trof??
like some feedback, please
thanks
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:11 AM |
|
PS question?
|
is the ull to charley's west strengthening or not? has pulled it wnw for some time.. how will that play out today and tomorrow
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:12 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 11am discussion
|
I'm reminded of Hurricane Floyd when he was supposed to come up right through the middle of the penninsula. He then veered to the right and gave all of us a sigh of releif!!
Yet, I don't see this happening with Charley.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:16 AM |
|
Re: PS question?
|
URNT11 KNHC 111443
97779 14434 40177 75200 15400 12045 16168 /2521 41035
RMK AF968 0203A CHARLEY OB 13
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:22 AM |
|
South of Jamaica, but close
|
If it maintains its current heading, it appears to me that the center of Charley will pass just to the south of Jamaica. Regardless, they will be getting some of the worst of the weather but I don't think its impact with the island is going to weaken the system much, nor slow it down.... we'll find out soon
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:23 AM |
|
Re: PS question?
|
I have a ? Why do we port the obs that the planes are reporting if we dont have any explanation with them? All it says to me is that someone can copy and paste. I appriciate all of the people in here that take the time to post what these reading mean. Hey joepub, hope you have your candles ready cause jea is going to be w/o power for sure.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:28 AM |
|
Bonnie
|
May just be me thinkin, but i think and based on what i see and bonnie may come ashore farther north (west) than expected and as a Hurricane.... i notice that the "hanging" front looks to be weaker to north of storm than i first thought... this goes back to what i thought yesterday.... the low that was over the mobile region has produce alot of shower activity well ahead of storm (which i think is influenced by Bonnie now) and appears to be drifting more north now... question is will bonnie do as alex.... i think somewhat yes... the "shear" to north is pretty strong but also look over near the houston area....???? shear looks to be heading south, could that be a sign of Bonnie getting bigger?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:37 AM |
|
Re: Bonnie
|
Looks like Charley is headed toward the central GOM. Florida spared again??
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:37 AM |
|
Re: 11am discussion
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Agree rmbjoe. Hope we learned one thing from Floyd, and I'm not doing any comparison between these two storms and Floyd.It would be for the most part, Floridians need to STAY HOME. Protect and prepare your home and family, but if you get on the road, there's not going to be a good direction to go in this case. Running from one only puts you in the path of the other. Use a shelter; they will be aval. but your much more at risk in a car stuck on a highway in 50-60 mph winds and driving rain, with people losing their cool. With the exception of areas close to the coast, it's pretty much going to be a windy, rainy day that you'll survive with no problem. I hope people don't make it worse then it has to be.
Anybody think the "center" of both storms will cross the same patch of dirt at some point, within a 72-96 hour period?
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:37 AM |
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Re: 11am discussion
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This is not like FLoyd. But here in Maryland Floyd wasn't a sigh of relief more like a wake up call.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:39 AM |
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Re: 11am discussion
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Does anyone think that watches should be extended further west ? The models are trending that way
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:40 AM |
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Re: PS question?
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Ahhhh, Gary, I see you know our power grid well......
Local joke, it really sucks.
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:40 AM |
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Re: Bonnie
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We just got an email saying that bonnie and charlie will not get close to us at all and we are not in any danger of being affected here where I work. I just laughted and said, what website is he looking at cause at the same time he sent that word out that weather guy for channel 12 was on the radio saying we could get strong winds and storms from bonnie and charlie was too far out to tell at this time. Funny how people who havent been in a storm or have had too many scares brush off something that coudl be at thier back door. Hey colleen hows tampa getting prepared?
| PFSThunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:41 AM |
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Charley
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You need to look again because thwe latest graphic has the center going right over Orlando by Friday afternoon. The storm is moving father left but it has one heck of a curve in it as the infuence of the front begins to interact with the movement.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:41 AM |
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For Gary C.
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I posted this at 10:06, 2 pages back:
>>> Also, the recon data are great for those who know how to interpret them, but they clog up the boards. Only post the relevant data (and you know what those are).
It seems to me that some people either do not take the time to read others' posts or ignore them altogether. Perhaps it's time to start deleting the recon stuff that appears without explanation...
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:42 AM |
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Re: 11am discussion
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The NHC is going to be real carful with extending watches and warnings. Those this are expensive and they dont want to be like the boy who cried wolf. But on the other hand if the models are changing they are going to have to make a choice.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:50 AM |
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Re: 11am discussion
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Quote:
The NHC is going to be real carful with extending watches and warnings. Those this are expensive and they dont want to be like the boy who cried wolf. But on the other hand if the models are changing they are going to have to make a choice.
Whats the avg cost to an area if they extend the warnings to a city like Mobile ?
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:52 AM |
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Re: 11am discussion
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It is estimated that every mile of watch or warning costs 1 million dollars in manpower and supplies.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:52 AM |
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Re: Charley
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You must be looking at an old run. The 12Z has shifted further west.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:54 AM |
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Re: 11am discussion
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Quote:
It is estimated that every mile of watch or warning costs 1 million dollars in manpower and supplies.
Thanks for the answer Jason
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:55 AM |
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Tampa Preparations
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Well, let me put it this way. After I dropped off Thing 1 and Thing 2 at camp, I decided to go to Publix to stock up on some extra stuff. I saw maybe about 20 cars in the parking lot and most of the people were buying things other than hurricane supplies. I think that people are not preparing because we get all excited and then nothing happens. My gut feeling is this is going to be a big surprise for people tonight and tomorrow. I think people tend to forget that we are not that far from the GOM and depending on how close Charley gets to us, we could get hurricane strength winds. Do you know how many mobile homes there are in Polk County? TONS. On the bright side, it only took me 35 minutes to get what I needed and some cash, too.
In Hillsborough County, they are handing out 20-25 sandbags per household at local fire departments.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 11:58 AM |
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Re: Charley
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Not by much, Steve. It still has it coming in near TB but a little bit slower. It isn't a dramatic shift to the west.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:00 PM |
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Re: Charley
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Both Storm tracks are shifting more west. Or am I seeing things ?
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:01 PM |
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NEW THREAD
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MIKE PUT UP A NEW THREAD...DON'T POST HERE ANYMORE
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:03 PM |
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Re: 11am discussion
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million dollars per mile evacuated
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Aug 12 2004 08:08 PM |
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Re: Charley vortex message
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Where can I find a flood map of Tampa ?
Thanks
http://www.hardcoreweather.com