MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 14 2004 03:22 PM
Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

11 PM Update
Danielle is now a hurricane with sustained winds of 65 knots. It is somewhat uncommon for a tropical cyclone to reach hurricane strength on or east of 30W. Danielle is moving to the west northwest and a more northwestward motion is expected. At the moment it looks like Danielle will remain at sea during its lifetime.

Tropical Storm Earl continues to move west northwest at 20mph and this motion should continue for several days. Note the following from NHC: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES...AND ST. LUCIA.

Earl should continue to intensify and reach hurricane strength on Monday.

Tropical Storm Charley Continues to swiftly move northeastward off of the New Jersey coast and should reach Long Island around sunrise on its way to the Boston area. Charley will soon transition to an extratropical system.
ED

Original Post
Earl is of most concern to Florida over the next few days. Are you ready to possibly go through this again this coming weekend? Tropical storm Earl will likely be classified at 5PM and move toward Jamaica and then Cuba.

Charley is moving through NC/Virginia and quickly toward the northeast as a much much weaker system.

We'll be watching as we recover from Charley.

More to Come Later.

Damage Photos from New Smyrna Beach area taken by Mike C.

Event RelatedLinks
Hurricane City is having live audio and video broadcasts throughout the day on Bonnie/Charley and Jim's Audio show is from 8PM to 11PM EST
All model "Spaghetti" for Earl from hurricanealley
Another Multi-Model Track plot for Earl

Damage Photos from New Smyrna Beach area taken by Mike C.

General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 03:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

So much for a quiet season.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 03:29 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

The T #'s for both storms are at 2.5 now.

Robert
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 14 2004 03:53 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

(Post deleted by moderator)

52255225
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 14 2004 03:58 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

(off topic post)

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 04:00 PM
Hurricane Charley Pictures

Here is some images of Charley

Charley before landfall

Shot #2

Another Shot

yet another shot


BillD
(User)
Sat Aug 14 2004 04:13 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

I agree that is a little harsh, but I understand where he is coming from. There are millions too many people living along the coast that have no clue of the real risk to themselves and their families. It is unfortunate, but it will take more wakeup calls like this before the local, state and federal governments do anything to stop the uncontrolled growth of these low lying areas. As horrible as this situation is, it is minor compared to what would have happened had Charley hit Tampa, or anywhere along the SE coast of Florida. If Andrew had hit 20 miles further north the destruction and deaths would have been ten times as bad. For those of us that have been through several major hurricanes, we know what to do. But most of the people that live in Florida never have, and thousands more clueless people arrive every month. It is a major disaster (not to mimimize what just happened) waiting to happen, and it will happen.

Bill


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 14 2004 04:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

There is a harshness in the post that also shows the lack of understanding of the younger generation. We had an elderly family member who lives in a senior retirement mobile home park. He was told to evacuate and his family begged and pleaded for him to come with them. He refused because his wife is dead. He said that he was not leaving his and her belolngings because if he lost that he would have nothing at all. He lucked out in that the storm did not go where it was said to go. However, those people born during the wars know the dangers but are motivated by other reasons rather than ignorance to remain with their belongings. We have to have compasion for them. The anger needs to be at the situation that allows any residential areas to be built in what is known to be an evacuation zone. Then look at Hardee Polk Highlands Counties and outguess the Great Physician.

Robert
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 14 2004 04:32 PM
Guppie

Yes Guppie you are totally right.

People were warned. 9/11 was a tragedy, a friend of mine had a best friend that died in iraq we view that as tradgedy, the train driver sent to rescue the veterans + the veterans in the 1935 Cane was truely a tradgedy not this, Charley was just a hurricane.

(Robert, my village lost 25 members during 9/11, of whom I personally knew three...let me tell you, it's hard going to funerals when there is NO BODY. DO NOT make another post like this last one...or it will be your last post, I can guarantee that)


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 14 2004 04:32 PM
From the NWS TLH AFD

Not good news for the northern Gulf Coast at this point...

.LONG TERM...UPR TROF TO FINALLY LIFT NEWD WITH RIDGING MOVING EWD
OVER ERN CONUS MID-WEEK. TIME TO LOOK EWD AT TD FIVE..POSITION
BRINGS IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND INTO NW CARIB DAY 5. TRACK LOOKS
OMINOUSLY LIKE BONNIE.

Everybody be prepared....


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 14 2004 04:40 PM
Re: From the NWS TLH AFD

Thanks for the heads up.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 04:47 PM
Re: From the NWS TLH AFD

Well there is somthing to wake you up.

BillD
(User)
Sat Aug 14 2004 04:48 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

Earl is a TS in the 5PM advisory.

T's on Danielle are up to 3.5.

Bill


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 04:50 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

and 65 mph!

WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 14 2004 05:38 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

Earl looks like trash. I am surprised they named it now. It looked better earlier. Danielle looks impressive but will be a fish.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Aug 14 2004 05:54 PM
Charley

My heart goes out to any and all who lost family or friends due to Charley. Seeing the pix on TWC just makes it feel worse. You guys were (for the most part) great. I don't want to have to moderate during these times...

That being said, I have an itchy trigger finger tonight, and enough PM's encouraging me to edit sooner that I won't hesitate to do so...

From a personal perspective, my region is under a TS warning as we speak.. This hurricane is leaving his mark on the entire coastline.

Went down to Jones Beach (shout out to Richieweather...field six baby) this afternoon for a swim...mellow waves but expect things will get worse.

Earl and Danielle loom...not much time to rest. Behave, please!!! We haven't had any Isaroni's/Paloma's/Matthew's this season, but it's just a matter of time. Robert, I've got my eye on you...just go surf dude, it's cool...don't stir the pot.


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Aug 14 2004 06:21 PM
Re: Charley

Post on this page please...

52255225
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 14 2004 06:22 PM
Re: Charley

Well said Thank You!

Robert
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 14 2004 06:47 PM
Re: phil

Just Cancle My screen name phil im discusted i have no freedom.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Aug 14 2004 06:49 PM
Re: phil

Hate to see you go. At least or spelllchcker won't suffer.

RobC
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 14 2004 07:31 PM
Newly adjusted hurricane season numbers

Hi. Newly registered user here who has followed Charlie the last few days through this forum. I'd first like to say that I'm amazed with the meteorological knowledge displayed on this web site. I'm an amateur hurricane tracker, and have learned quite a bit about the nitty-gritty physics of hurricanes just by reading posts here. Though I'm sure my words don't carry a lot of weight, I would just like to say what a good job posters have been doing here.

I would like to make a brief comment on Danielle and Earl. It seems to me to be quite rare for the the first five tropical depressions of a season to all develop into named storms. Furthermore, if Danielle and Earl do develop into hurricanes (as expected), isn't this also unusual that four of the five depressions have developed into hurricanes?

Finally, given that we are just now approaching the peak of the hurricane season, I am wondering if we might actually exceed the recent updated 2004 hurricane forecast of 7 hurricanes, 3 major. Is it possible to end up having 8-9 hurricanes with 4-5 being major (given that it is only mid-August)? I would be interested in anyone's thoughts on this...


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 14 2004 07:57 PM
Re: Plan o'the Day-Sunday

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 14 AUGUST 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUG 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/1200,1800Z A. 16/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0105A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 15/0930Z C. 15/2230Z
D. 12.9N 58.8W D. 14.2N 62.5W
E. 15/1100Z TO 15/1830Z E. 15/2300Z TO 16/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 14 2004 07:57 PM
Re: Newly adjusted hurricane season numbers

It is possible, but not likely as these major hurricanes can exhaust the energy supplies by churning up the water and exposing cooler deeper waters to the surface. However, having said that, this charley was such as fast mover she/he did not spend too much time in any one place, leaving miles of untapped heat energy in place. It is going to be an interesting season no matter what happens from now on. The Florida peninsula has still got several sides it could be approached from and of course that goes for all the coast lines exposed to the gulf or atlantic.

BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 14 2004 07:59 PM
Re: news coverage

It seems odd that the press is all over Punto Gorda and not too much out of Port Charlotte.
Any ideas why?


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 14 2004 08:08 PM
Re: Newly adjusted hurricane season numbers

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT 14 AUG 2004

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN LOOKS MORE LIKE OCTOBER THAN AUGUST WITH A
DEEP TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST INTO LOUISIANA AND THE NW GULF.
ALL-TIME COLD FOR AUGUST HAS OCCURRED IN PLACES OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES....

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AFTER THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE YEAR.......THE EARLIEST
SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE SINCE 1955...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS NEAR 21N41W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. MAJORITY OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG ELY FLOW AND LOW VALUES OF
VERTICAL SHEAR THOUGH THERE IS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN DANIELLE/TD 5. THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT
FARTHER SOUTH TO 18N/19N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A TROUGH DIGS
AHEAD OF DANIELLE... POSSIBLY PROVIDING SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS


52255225
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 14 2004 08:22 PM
Re: news coverage

Out of Tampa its all over equally! Lot of damage all over the center of the state.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 14 2004 08:36 PM
Re: news coverage

Earl appears to be making some people nervous already. I am reading about unseasonably cool temperatures around Lousianna.I was wondering about Charley. Could he have developed subtropical characteristics since the in-land damage was so narrow and so oddly patterned. For Instance, there were places in the path that were clobbered. Then other places that were for the most part unscathed. I may still be in aftermath shock but, something is bugging me about this hurricane season.

nevermind.. i was going to comment, but see that clark did a better job below. -HF


Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 14 2004 08:43 PM
Re: news coverage

I have to agree with you...my gut (which is rather large..lol) feeling tells me that this hurricane season is going to be one that will go down as one for the books, and not in a good way. I'm a little worried about Earl, if he strengthens to a C3 or 4 and takes a more westerly path into the gulf and heads toward Louisiana or Southern Alabama, we here in Atlanta will be bailing water for days. But then again it could be another Bonnie which dumped almost 2" of rain in an hour here in Atlanta...

Again my thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected by Bonnie and Charley, and we'll see about next weekend...

Best wishes from the home of the NL East leading Atlanta Braves


BillD
(User)
Sat Aug 14 2004 08:44 PM
Re: news coverage

I would agree something is defintely different about this season. I think the NHC is noticing it too, to the point they are mentioning it in their discussions (see danielw's post).

But as far as Charley's path, I don't see it much different than Andrew. The energy of the storm was tight and compact around the center, just like Andrew. I rode out Andrew about a mile south of my house, and just in that mile, the damage difference was night and day, my place was virtually untouched, while a mile south all the trees were stripped of their leaves and/or flattened. And then go ten miles further south, and it was total devastation, go 20 miles south of that, and just a few tree limbs down.

I don't buy into Danielle recurving way east. I can't say why, but looking at the global models, I just don't see why it would. If someone with more knowledge in this can explain why, I'd love to hear it, because I am obviously missing something obvious.

Bill


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 14 2004 08:52 PM
Danielle a hurricane?????

The latest dvorak numbers for Danielle are now 4.0/4.0, which would support a 65 knot hurricane. This will probably be upgraded at 11pm

--Lou


javlin
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 14 2004 08:54 PM
Re: news coverage

I don't think so Guppie I think Charley was all Tropical.Earl looking better all the Time amazing that these storms are holding it together at 25mph.I'm looking fo player's next week guy's.When and where is the next front suppose to come.I see two ULL'S one at 70W and 30N and a small one(probably the one from Charley) at 88W and 22N(not moving much).It seems the fronts have been 7-10 days apart.It's far reaching really a guess if there is another one in the GOM I would speculate FL panhandle to mid Texas just a guess.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 14 2004 09:00 PM
Re: news coverage

GuppieGrouper - you listed the reasons why Charley was most certainly a tropical system and not subtropical or extratropical. One of the primary defining characteristics of a tropical cyclone is a tight, compact wind field with the strongest winds near the center in the eye. The damage from Charley is consistant with this, as you noted. Subtropical systems and particularly extratropical systems have their strongest winds well-removed from the center of circulation. The satellite signature & cyclone phase analyses from the models all confirm a tropical cyclone at it's strongest warm core when it made landfall.

BillD - the models are picking up on the remnants of both Charley and Bonnie merging together with the trough along the east coast and moving across the Atlantic to pick up Danielle. We've been joking that Charley and Bonnie will get together and become Charnie (coincidentally, there was a meteorologist a long time ago named Charney who worked in instability theory); now if Danielle joins the party, we've got Charnielle on our hands. But, it's likely that's what they are picking up on to recurve the system...we'll see in the next couple of days if that plays out.


javlin
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 14 2004 09:04 PM
Re: news coverage

I have to agree with BillD.Danielle stength maybe?That can cause a poleward drift from what's what discuused around the board.Phil or Dan might have some insight maybe the ridge breaks down later.I havn't learn yet how to read the MB maps and there effects.

javlin
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 14 2004 09:06 PM
Re: news coverage

Clark's the Man
Hey Clark isn't that when the talk about baronic comes in .I have only read alittle about it do not fully understand it all.


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 09:08 PM
Re: news coverage

It was strange driving around North Orlando area today. Lots of people out in all the neighborhoods I drove through cleaning up tons and tons of downed trees and debris. Neighbors helping neighbors. Many streets not passable due to downed trees and power lines.
I too think that this is going to be an extremely active next couple of months in the tropics.
I know that I'm keeping my hurricane supplies handy.,


BillD
(User)
Sat Aug 14 2004 09:16 PM
Re: news coverage

Clark,

Thanks for the great explanations, and the whole Charnie, Charnielle thing cracked me up. But I'm still not convinced that the high will weaken enough that far east for Danielle to turn, of course the stronger she is (and she is definitely strenghtening) the more likely any weakness in the ridge will mean she turns.

Bill


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 14 2004 09:17 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

More insterested in talking about Earl than Charley and didnt see the post but am more disgusted with the total stupidity of people who think only the East coast gets hurricanes and the anger should be at local officials who did not make it clear that any storm south of you should be watched and taken every precaution ... the fault for those communities lie with their mayors, police, emergency management.. news crews... miami stations were live from thursday night and everyone here watches to make sure there are no last minute surprises.. cannot imagine that every city south of Tampa didn't have tv and radio on.

Complain about public awareness or lack of education. Scare they you know what out of these people like some drivers ed class.. this is your house before..this is after..

Hurricanes are not remote controlled interactive video games run by the Hurricane Center.. as Mayfield said in EVERY interview with Miami reporters.. you always have to expect last minute surprises.

Anyway...want to read about Earl not Charley, media is 24/7 still on Charley and there will be more and more heartbreaking stories

But they needed happened because the reason we have less deaths now days is because of awareness..warnings.. knowlege..

Unlike 1926 and Galveston.

Imagine everyone from Mexico to Miami will keep their eyes on Earl. But hopefully they will keep watching in 2007 and 2009 and etc..


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 14 2004 09:19 PM
Re: Danielle a hurricane?????

The stronger Danielle becomes at this point the fishier she becomes.

I'd worry about Earl.


SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 09:27 PM
Re: Danielle a hurricane?????

I'm already worried about Earl.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 14 2004 09:42 PM
Re: Danielle a hurricane?????

Thanks to Lou and Mike C for the photos on this and the last thread. Earl appears to be the next tropical event for someone in the US or Latin America. Funny thing is, 18WNONAME has a very similar track (though more sloped WNW than N followed by W curve) as Rananim which landfell a couple days prior to Charley and Bonnie. 18W doesn't appear to be headed toward Super Typhoon status but it is certainly heading south of Shanghai. There are also two other invests up for the WPAC including a TCFA on 94W.

Things will be interesting this week. I'll be out of pocket on Monday and Tuesday because I have to go to Lake Charles then Lafayette. We'll be hitting it hard in Lafayette at several of the better drinking establishments and most likely some of the better eating ones too. People talk about the food in New Orleans, and yeah, our stuff is good. But it's better in Lafayette. They are the original [tm]. I gotta go on some recon missions so I figured early in the week was better than later just in case there's any activity worth watching (and a shot at a day off next week). I don't know what Earl's going to do. It's way too early to call. Bastardi gave a west Gulf headsup earlier in the week. Still working on a couple of bloody marys the day after. I didn't have pickled okra (and wasn't using Tabasco), but the beans are spiced (even if they're a product of New Zealand). Heh. It still tastes good.

SOI's gone DEEP negative. A burst of westerlies should be making its way across the Pacific in due time and may heat up the water a bit more in the Central Pacific. That's a headsup for the Hawaiian Islands.

NAO is as deep as it's been in months and may have signaled this development phase (despite the lack of much MJO though I haven't researched it in the last week or so). NAO is forecast (as of Friday) back to neutral for tomorrow. Then there are differences in the model runs. We'll have to see. But if the NAO is driving or telegraphing multiple developments over it's next two tank phases, it might be something to look at every now and then.

NAO Values

NAO Ensemble Forecasts

Steve


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 14 2004 09:56 PM
Re: Danielle a hurricane?????

If you're bored waiting for Charlie, this is a story about the record lows the trough brought down to us. I've never seen a sunny day (UV = 11+) in mid-August in New Orleans where the temperature was in the mid 80's. UNREAL. You don't have to register on that site, just put in some dummy information.

Steve
Record Lows in New Orleans


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:05 PM
Re: Newly adjusted hurricane season numbers

For the purpose of this study, 32 variables were considered. The list of these variables can be found here. The historical data for the past years, from 1950 forward was used for the tropical cyclone information, the best track data from the National Hurricane Center was used for the location information. Each of the 32 variables was given a weighting and a tolerance value. The results can be viewed here. Only the years when the "match" was at least 80% were used. It was determined that the analog years since 1950, or those that best "fit" this year's conditions through the end of September are 1972, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1995, 2002.

Year Tropical Cyclones Hurricanes Cat 3-5 Hurricanes
1955 12 9 6
1972 6 3 0
1985 11 7 3
1988 12 5 3
1990 14 8 1
1995 19 11 5
2002 11 4 2

The forecasts have been made using the basic formation points, and tracks of the storms from June 1 through November 30 for the analog years. There is a measure of "feel" involved in the final forecast, but this is simply the prerogative of the individual doing the study.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/forecast200401.htm
*Kind of correlates with the 1955 mention from NHC earlier.*-edit


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:10 PM
Cold front .....

yeah and this cold front also prevented what should have been a western or central gulf coast storm (climatologically speaking), and shunted it off towards the unfortunate people of SW florida... Now the question of the day is., or perhaps the coming week will be; will Earl get the same treatment??? If it makes it to the GOM, will we have the luxury of protection of another front... statistically speaking, I think not... which would not bode well for the central or western GOM... if it does make it to the GOM... still to early to call, but the models did pretty dang good with Charley overall.... maybe they can get two in a row...

SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:14 PM
Re: Cold front .....

Going to be interesting, Frank.

Seeing how bad S. Florida got it, I don't think anyone in the Central or Western Gulf Coast is going to take any chances with Earl.

Better get our sleep while we can!


Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:20 PM
MJO

I was just thinking about MJO when i scrolled down and saw steve's post give it mention. All this activity with a negative MJO, wonder what will happen when the MJO goes positive. Steve or anyone correct me if i wrong but a negative NAO is positive for tropical development, but is a negative SOI a postive for tropical development?

I still don't fully understand these phenomena, just try to remember which values correspond to development.

Also noticing Earl on the IR, has really begun to pull itself together.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:21 PM
Re: Cold front .....

Yeah Cane, and in the unlikely event the season does not produce another hurricane (did I high HIGHLY UNLIKELY)... the fact the we've had a direct hit of a Cat 4 in an area of the continental US makes this already a significant and perhaps a historical season regardless of what happens down the road....... For the US to get hit with two majors this year would not be good at all... and its still so early in the season... Heck, the heart and soul starts basically now and runs till late September....

SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:42 PM
Re: Cold front .....

You're not kidding. The peak of the season JUST GOT STARTED! You know, looking back, there has NEVER been 5 storms named in the first 14 days of August alone. That is history right there!

This pic is CRAZY. There is a TRAIN of waves coming off Africa! This pic is UNREAL.... See what you think.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF


RobC
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:45 PM
Re: Cold front .....

Wow. Is that imaging current SirCane? That's unreal.

SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:47 PM
Re: Cold front .....

Yep, it's current. You can see that Danielle is looking more and more like a classic Cape Verde Hurricane!

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:47 PM
Re: Cold front .....

UNBELIEVEABLE ... and just three weeks ago people were whinning that we were going to have a slow season ... oh please call me a WHAMBULANCE... sat pix looks like they're all on the runway and ready to take off... Danielle is Hurricane number 3 and will be a fish spinner... but I really see Earl as another potentially serious player for the US... and the pix shows we have some more players in the bullpen getting loosened up... could be a very intense Cape Verde season getting ready to crank...

SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:53 PM
Re: Cold front .....

Just goes to show you-never complain about a slow season till you get into August! Historically-June and July aren't very active.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:54 PM
Re: NCEP Discussion

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
134 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 17 2004 - 12Z SAT AUG 21 2004
...FINAL MODEL DISCUSSION...

A BLOCKY LATE SUMMER PATTERN AT HIGHER LATITUDES WILL MODIFY THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE ERN GLF AK WEAKENS AND
RETROGRADES WWD WHILE A SUB ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SWD BETWEEN TWO
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGES IN TO CENTRAL CANADA. AGAIN A VERY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN WITH HTS WELL BELOW NORMAL. SWD OVER SRN CONUS A
MEAN SEPARATE MORE SRN STREAM TROF WILL WORK EWD OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE MS VALLEY WHERE IT WILL PARTIALLY PHASEE WITH THE
DEEP MEAN TROF NWD IN THE SRN CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN
RAISING HTS OVER THE SERN SEABOARD AND ADJACENT CARRIBEAN.


...ATLC TROPICS...
CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC TROPICS BECOMING QUITE ACTIVE WITH TWO
CURRENT SYSTEMS WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 AND T.S. DANIELLE BOTH
FORECAST TO BECOME HURCNS IN A FEW DAYS. MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME HAS DANIELLE TURNING WELL NWD IN THE OPEN
ATLC. T.D. 5 FORECAST TO COME S OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO NR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY DAY 5 THU POSSIBLY THREATENING SRN OR SERN
GULFMEX NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER WRN AFRICAN DISTURBANCE SEEN BY
LONGER TERM MODEL RUNS COMING INTO THE CENTRAL TROP ATLC...MUCH
MORE UNCERTAIN AT THAT TIME RANGE BUT LONGER TERM TREND OF
GFS/ECMWF IS TO RAISE W ATLC/CARIB HTS WHILE GFS INDICATES THIS AS
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. SEE LATEST NHC
ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS.
ROSENSTEIN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT www.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 10:58 PM
Re: Earl & Hurricane Danielle

Before I mention the other storms just wanted to say that my heart goes out to the people in SW Fla affected by Charley. Been watching the video, and it reminded me of the aftermath of Andrew, which I saw firsthand.
Danielle just upgraded to a hurricane, but has fish written all over her., Earl is the one to watch, seems to be getting organized, looks like a western GOM storm unless a sharp trough picks him up., we'll see how it plays out in the next few days. Also, that wave train in Africa looks really scary., heading for a real active time the next 4-6 weeks., wasn't it just a couple of weeks ago some of us here were talking about the quiet time?, how fast things change!

TG


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:05 PM
Re: Earl & Hurricane Danielle

Jamie,

The SOI usually goes way negative if there is/are developing cyclone(s) in the WPAC. A negative SOI over the long haul usually portends El Nino. It can signify blocking or amplification in the US 15ish days down the road. This can help with the idea of whether or not the eastern US will show trof conditions or just a flatter flow across. Depending on other variables, this can help inidicate whether or not the Gulf or East Coast is at risk at a given time. It doesn't portend storms on this side of the ocean, but it can help with paths. The NAO breaking negative is one of the better signals (in non El Nino years) of a coming burst of tropical activity.

Steve


StormLover
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:06 PM
Re: Earl & Hurricane Danielle

Seems like we are in a pattern similar to the 1950s when many strong hurricanes formed and threatened the mainland US. Anyone here think that later on the NHC will upgrade Charley to a Cat 5 like they recently did with Andrew? The scenes of total devestation must have required near-Cat 5 windspeeds.

JimAnderson
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:14 PM
T and Dvorak numbers

Guys,

Often, when looking at the various storms, someone will mention T numbers and/or Dvorak numbers. Could someone post a link to a glossary or definition?

You all have been truely fascinating during Charley. I have in-laws in N. Fort Myers who were debating going to their trailer parks shelter, but based upon what I saw on here and the NHC site, when my wife talked to them about 1pm yesterday, she was able to convince them to get to shelter. THANKS!

Haven't heard from them yet, but figure it is probably because LEE county is still out of electricity/telephone service.

Jim


Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:17 PM
Models

scary how the 12Z NOGAPS turns Earl to the North toward FL panhandle, but i guess models will be flip floping, and we will have to see if any trends develop or whether other models come into agreement with it. 18Z GFDL takes the system closer to the Yucatan, will be interesting to see where the models take Earl over the next couple of days.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:17 PM
Re: T and Dvorak numbers

Here is a chart with the T numbers and Dvorak classes.
Pressures are different this year. A little higher than the chart says. Maybe one of the more meteorology inclined here on the board can explain it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:20 PM
danielle

okay...for a few reasons that i don't want to say yet because im not sure of..i wouldnt slam the door on her getting further west than a storm would normally at that lat this far out being a hurricane

most likely will curve too fast to be a problem but still have to watch how things play out in the mid atlantic in charley's wake

as for earl.. a lot to think on

heard dolphins made a big donation to victims in SW florida..
.. wayne made 1 million dollars donation.. nice, not his biggest fan, but nice

hopefully money will be raised for the people who need it most out there


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:23 PM
mjo/steve

i think the point is that unless im wrong we are not in a wet phase and all this is going on...can u imagine when the wet phase gets into the basin

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:27 PM
Dvorak

Here is another interesting link, with reference to T-numbers and Dvorak strength.

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/atlantic_tropic_watch_guide_to_d.htm


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:33 PM
Re: Dvorak

Jamie, I like that link better

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:42 PM
Re: Dvorak

Quote:

Jamie, I like that link better




its, always been one of my favorite links for Dvorak, i actually printed a chart for future reference, i had some post a question about telling Dvorak strength once and i gave this link, should have posted it a while ago for anyone one the board that has not seen it.

Am noticing quite a few people giving praise to CFHC and noting how much they have learned. I have to say i have learned a lot myself from this board, and my library of useful tropical links has grown dramatically this season. The site is like a big online weather/tropical community and its a great place to come for information and education especially with the proffesional meterologists like Ed and Jason. Sorry to be off topic, back on topic as of now, just a pause to praise the site and its admin for making it available.


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:45 PM
Re: Dvorak

Thanks Jamie....

Earl is REALLY getting his groove on tonight...at this rate, Cat one by tomorrow is likely....


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 14 2004 11:55 PM
Re: Dvorak

This is a hypothetical question. With the path so similar to Charley, is there anything that will prohibit Earl from taking the path that was once predicted for Charley, such as coming in to Tampa Bay. Even a Cat 1 at the wrong angle at high tide would be a flood and catastrophic event for Tampa Bay. Just hoping that this is impossible for this season.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 15 2004 12:59 AM
Re: Tracks

8/12/04 1200Z model runs:
Going back and looking. At which models came the closest to Punta Gorda.
The GFDI came closest, followed by DSNS (disney?), and the OFCI model. The others were north of Tampa/St. Petersburg.
Not bad for 30 hours in advance!


BillD
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:18 AM
Re: Tracks

Nothing is impossible and anything is possible, but this far out we don't even know that Earl will make it into the GOM, much less hit Florida. Way too early to tell whether Earl will follow Bonnie, Charley or go anywhere from SE Florida to Texas.

Bill


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:19 AM
Re: Earl

Yeah he could be real nice to everyone and dissipate.

BillD
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:25 AM
Re: Earl

I hope so, but I don't think he will.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:46 AM
Re: news coverage

javlin - yes, somewhat. Midlatitude (cold-core systems) tend to be of a more baroclinic nature, while tropical systems are closer to barotropic. Deals with how the systems grow, in laymans terms. It's tough to explain without going into atmospheric dynamics and could take 20 pages, neither of which I'm about to do!

BillD - I agree, though I'd tend to believe the models right now just because they are so tightly clustered. I'll buy recurvature; I don't know that I'll buy it within the next few degrees of longitude. By 50°W, sure; just after 40°W, I'm not so sure. Ultimately though, I think it's a fish spinner, leaving the intensity question to be the last unanswered question.

Also saw a question about the Dvorak technique. Not sure how much depth the links went into, but in a quick summary, the Dvorak technique was established many years ago to classify tropical systems and their intensities based upon observed satellite patterns. It splits tropical cyclones into a few major cloud-organization categories - I don't recall the exact ones, but there's a spiral band category, a CDO category, and I *think* a sheared category - and allows an intensity for each to be obtained based upon how well a given system matches the expected cloud organization structure for that type of storm. It's a good estimator of intensity, but as we've seen not necessarily an accurate one. It is not good with rapidly developing storms, for instance, as we saw with Charley (highest estimate of T5.0, or 90kt).

A couple of observances on the tropics...

* The models I have seen lately take Earl a bit further south than Charley. The storm does continue to become better organized and I do not think it will be a storm that struggles to get it's act together over the Caribbean. The current steering flow should keep it on a west to west-northwest motion throughout the forecast period, albeit I think probably at a faster rate initially than the NHC is calling for. The strength of the next East coast trough will determine it's ultimate fate - Mexico/Texas or eastern Gulf. Current projections say it may well be weak enough to not have much of an influence on Earl, but that's five days away. The G-IV will be headed out to Earl in a day or two, which should help to refine things. No sense in predicting a track beyond saying it should be somewhere near Jamaica in about four days. Intensity? All factors seem to be favorable, save for the fast motion, for some strengthening. Hurricane status is almost assured; wouldn't be shocked to see a cat 2 or 3 in four days.

* Danielle continues to become better organized and, while this may sound like a broken record, major hurricane status is not out of the question for this one either. The next day or so will be critical; the further west it gets before recurving, the stronger it gets. Imagine the eye will pop out on the first few visible images of the day in the east Atlantic - it's a classic Cape Verde storm, but also a classic fish spinner.

* Wave train over Africa is well established, but we may see a brief lull of a wave or two after Danielle moves away. Waters out there aren't *that* warm yet and the strengthening of Danielle is going to churn them up just a bit. It's folly trying to predict storm formation (or no formation) from something over the middle of Africa, but I think we'll have a few days' respite before the next waves get cranking in the east Atlantic.

* Those of you in the Tallahassee area interested in seeing some Bonnie or Charley video in a couple of weeks, feel free to PM me and I'll fill you in on the details. Our local AMS chapter should be showing some video of Bonnie's onslaught and Charley's aftermath later this month.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:54 AM
Re: Dvorak

For those interested in a more comprehensive view of the Dvorak technique, including how all storms are broken down into four categories (I was close before - there's also a curved band pattern), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has an excellent resource available online:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/tcguide/ch2/ch2_3.htm

Specifically, read through section 2.3.2 while keeping their figures 2.4(a,b) and 2.5(a,b) open in a separate window.

It may be more information that you ever wanted to know about the technique, but it gives you a comprehensive view of what an analyst goes through when assigning a subjective T-number. It's worthwhile to note that objective Dvorak analyses go through the same process without the human constraints/enhancements (depending on how you want to view it!).


HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:55 AM
C/D/E

late, winded from mountain biking this afternoon.. keeping it terse.
charley heading out, going the way of bonnie. end of story.
danielle strengthening, likely to recurve far out to sea. ssts out 2-3 days aren't terribly warm, southwesterly shear ahead.. but as the storm makes it's right turn the relative shear should drop and ssts up near 25-30N in the east atlantic are warmer. dependent on how dramatic a recurvature takes place.. a significant extratropical remnant cyclone may make a run toward the iberian peninsula later on.
not likely at this point, though. storm has some potential to be major.
earl. jk's assessment on the strengthening this evening looks valid.. cdo feature trying to assert itself. should be going through the islands tomorrow afternoon/evening. if we have a hurricane out of earl before midweek look for a track to the right of the guidance envelope.. and potential interaction with the greater antilles. if it gets to hurricane after midweek expect it to be to the left and nearing the yucatan. i'm siding with the stronger earl, getting into the gulf around next saturday. already posted earlier a quote from the hpc discussion.. the later solution at this time is a recurvature into the central gulf coast around monday.. grand isle to apalachicola. bonnie redux. i suppose gfs keeps indicating a shortwave lifting out of texas around then.. it was yesterday. not very specific, but i'll go with the consensus on all that.
old trough boundary hanging in the central gulf deserves a glance but not much more. another piece of the old trough drifting nw near bermuda.. very limited convection and almost no chance. wave that was tailing danielle is lapping it and being mostly entrained (note the mid-level vortex devoid of convection NE of danielle's center).. follow on wave around 10w looks well-defined at this point. watcher when it comes off monday behind danielle.
gfs wants to develop more systems in the future.. the further west they start up (closer to 50w off the itcz).. the more likely they are to be players and not fish spinners. earlier noted that we are strangely in mjo positive and basin convection should be inhibited.. mjo signal seems to be masked and not running the show right now. soi very negative last few days as noted by steve... shots of strongly negative soi phase will contribute to the onset of an el nino warm phase. we're getting there.
HF 0555z15august


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:08 AM
HF & Clark

You two gentlemen are more than welcome to post any time any where on these boards. Lord knows I (and I am sure many others) are quite thankful for your insightful posts, and I am learning everytime I log on. Keep up the great posts!

Sorry to anyone if I overreacted (much) earlier this evening, but we cannot have posters who treated this storm as a summer shower. Enuf said.

Peace & best to all affected by Charley (which is actually dumping on me right now...just rain & a bit of wind-nothing like SFL residents faced...prayers for them)

LI Phil


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:12 AM
Re: C/D/E

Lending credence to the recurvature of Earl is the latest run of the UKMET model. Of course, the UKMet didn't do so hot at times with Bonnie and Charley, but it's still interesting to note.

It is a bit faster than the NHC, calling for landfall in about 6 days. The path is almost Charley redux - interaction over Jamaica, passing over the western tip of Cuba - up until what it does in the Gulf, where it takes the system into the Florida panhandle just west of Apalachicola. It makes it a strong system, though the guidance I have just says "STRONG" as opposed to saying how strong. The GFS doesn't really initialize Earl in the last run I saw (18z yesterday), but the midlatitude features are ominous for the eastern & central Gulf. The last NOGAPS I've seen (12z yesterday) takes this system into the Ft. Myers area - sound familiar?

In any case, it's one to watch over the coming days, and I'll buy the stronger Earl and the resulting track as well. The saving grace would be some significant interaction with Cuba - I'm not sure it'll gain enough latitude to really be affected by the Dominican Republic. Only time will tell.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:18 AM
Re: C/D/E

I believe you or one of the other mets on the board said something the other day/night about the pressures being higher than normal this year. Would this be part of the reason the models are Not picking up the storms. Pressure differential and gradient are out of the norm? I know I set myself up for that one, but I'm used to getting better data from buoys and such. This year I haven't been able to tell that a storm was anywhere around the buoys.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:26 AM
Re: C/D/E

bonnie and charley were tight, compact systems. with a tight inner core the pgf (pressure gradient force) is higher, which tends to accelerate the winds higher than you would normally see with a large-envelope storm of the same pressure. you get less widespread damage than say a hugo type storm, but more bang for your buck in the zone.
HF 0626z15august


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:34 AM
Re: C/D/E

Thanks HF. Have any of you seen the PSU GFDL loop?It shows Earl sitting over Cozumel at 126hrs from 18Z yesterday. That would be 00Z on the 20th if i calculate that right. Thursday night at sundown. Another weekend landfalling storm!

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:58 AM
Re: C/D/E

HF took care of most of the question (very well, I might add), but I'd also like to add a thing or two.

The pressures being higher on average won't affect the models picking up the storm, just that a higher pressure than normal inside the storm can result in higher wind speeds than one might expect from climatology. This goes into the PGF stuff HF mentioned - the gradient wind.

Models can't initialize a tropical cyclone well at all, though they tend to be able to pick up on a vortex once it is well-defined or if it is large enough. The resolution in many of these global models is not very high - 12 to 40km - meaning that smaller systems may have additional troubles being captured in the model analyses.

The buoy system is very useful, but there aren't terribly many buoys out there. With these small systems, it's tough to find many impacts unless the center passes near or over a buoy. Bonnie passed very near buoy 42001 in the northern Gulf and some impacts were measured there; I believe the NHC used it as justification for some intensity changes.

GFDL 12z on Earl did not really even capture the storm, so I'd like to see some more run-to-run consistency with capturing the storm before latching on to where it may head. I did see the 18z to the Yucutan, however, and it certainly is one possibility out there...can't really discount anything right now, unfortunately.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 15 2004 03:03 AM
Re: C/D/E

I seem to remember the gfdl taking one of the other storms to the same area. Just looking at the previous weather patterns most could probably pick that location out.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 15 2004 03:22 AM
Re: E-Earl *DELETED*

Post deleted by danielw

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:42 AM
Re: E-Earl

WTNT45 KNHC 150856
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED
SLIGHTLY EAST-WEST...THE AMOUNT AND QUALITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. THE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB IS A CONSENSUS
T3.0...OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 40 KT
BASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT BANDING FEATURES. AIR FORCE RECON
WILL BE INVESTIGATING EARL LATER THIS MORNING.....

THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN TAKING EARL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN OR NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OR EVEN NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALL OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 5...CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETREAT EASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY
RESULT IN EARL SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...
NOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...ONLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE UKMET.

*edited version. full advisory can be found under "EARL" on the upper left side, above communication heading-edit*




danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 15 2004 06:03 AM
Re: Danielle- Visible Pic

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES09152004228vB7QSt.jpg
0915Z Sunday; 0515EDT


Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 15 2004 06:45 AM
The pattern of low latitud systems in 2004

The pattern so far this season has been for low latitud systems moving from the atlantic into the caribbean and those haved been TD#2=Bonnie,TD#3=Charley and now Earl with the exception Danielle who is going to the fishes.It seems like the azores high has been strong with some fluctuations pushing the systems fast in the atlantic and caribbean and mantaining them low in latitud for a good deal of time.This pattern scares me because yes so far they haved passed well south of Puerto Rico and now Earl will do the same but if a CV system in the future forms more north in latitud then Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will be in the path so let's see what happens as august 15 has arrived date that starts the CV season but has iniciated with hurricane Danielle a big fish one.

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 15 2004 11:34 AM
Earl....

I don't want to sound alarmist, and this information is based on my intuition along with the opinion of someone who I believe is in the top 5 of hurricane forecasters alive today, and the only one of those who works for the Government.

Residents of the US Gulf Coast, particularily those who live between Houston and Apalachicola, need to watch Earl VERY closely.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 15 2004 11:34 AM
Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200405_5day.html

Yeah, I know the models will shift left and right over time, as they ALWAYS do with the 5 day forecasts... but at the moment it does not bode well for the GOM ...


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 15 2004 11:35 AM
Re: The pattern of low latitud systems in 2004

I'm going to give my take on Earl and Danielle, and stay out of the fray. Well never mind, it's gone now.

Earl is looking OK this morning, recon finding some good winds on the N side. Center may not be closed, but then Charley I swear was a hurricane and still had an open eyewall at some point, so I don't think it's a big thing. Still young in it's life. He seems to want to stay to the left of NHC's path that they keep drawing for him, and hankfrankly, if I don't see some north movement pretty soon, I don't think he'll ever get to either the 5 or 11 am (Sun) forecasts. I'm almost ready to let myself start thinking this is a panhandle-west storm at worse (looking at it from where I'm at). I had a thought about eight hours ago that if Danielle made it past 40W as a hurricane she might start to weaken the ridge, allowing a more northern turn, and in fact the NHC in their discussion said that myself and the U.K. Met might be the only two people or models thinking that. The way he's running hard to the west makes it unlikely to happen. He would have to almost stall somewhere to make me think he was FL bound. JB may indeed have his storm.

Danielle is a fish, yet could affect somebody's weather by having an effect on Earl's stearing. Watch what she does.

To think that 3 weeks ago I thought my numbers of 13/8/4 were a bad batch. Now I wonder if I'm going to be too low. And being in Florida I will say that if anybody from any other state would like to wishcast Earl upon themselves, please do. Have at it. We could use a break for the moment.


HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 11:42 AM
staying left

it's still very early with earl. the storm has stayed on the left of guidance.. and recon found a 1011mb pressure.. not very deep. makes the rapid westward movement not at all surprising. until it deepens it may well stay left and south of the forecast track.. which down the road could spell yucatan/central america implications.. though i expect it will find itself sometime during it's trek of the caribbean and gain a poleward component.
yes, earl is a potential bad situation for the august 21st-24th timeframe.. and probably for the central gulf coast. the surface ssts are a bit lower there due to frontal penetration, but still quite warm and probably only enough to cap intensification (not cause opal/lili type weakening before landfall).
we've got all week.. but yeah the writing is on the wall.
HF 1541z15august


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 11:50 AM
It's still EARLy...

but the whole Gulf (again) needs to watch this one.

And the West GOM in particular. That's all for now...


Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 15 2004 12:02 PM
Re: It's still EARLy...

Earl: Looks like convection is firing around the center....probably be a hurricane soon? look at latest visible...

btw, from someone who does remember Andrew in south florida...those pictures look exactly the same...however...we should note that most of those buildings were built before the new 2001 Florida Building Code....many of those buildings were built under older, less stringent standards than the South Florida Building Code...so although the damage might appear as bad as Andrew...it could have been worse if this was an Andrew type hurricane...we will know better once NHC prepares their post-op research. just a thought.


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 15 2004 12:10 PM
Re: staying left

though i expect it will find itself sometime during it's trek of the caribbean and gain a poleward component

You type that, and Earl just put out one of the best visible cloud bursts I've seen from a sat pic. Talk about high and cold, wow. 1515 utc vis. Holy smokes. Came right on top of Grenada, and their winds went WSW with thunderstorms. Wind was ENE, calm, and WSW over their last three obs. Now that makes me wonder if the LLC is further north then we think? Moving kinda quick for that, but who knows this season. The old rules are getting a run for their money, making new ones everyday it seems.


HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 12:11 PM
danielle and the wave train

danielle is going slowly as the ridge to the north is decaying.. the low level easterlies are pushing subsequent waves close enough to danielle's envelope that they have less chance of developing early. have to watch the next wave as globals favor the one coming off on tuesday.. not developing it quickly like danielle did and tracking it to near the northern islands by next weekend. ridge should be intact in danielle's wake.. i'm sure cycloneye is entertaining thoughts on this one.
just read the 11am on earl.. west at 28mph. regardless of how good it looks.. if this one doesn't apply some brakes it's going to check it's own development and stay left. of course if it's a hurricane by tuesday afternoon it'll end up in the gulf.
HF 1611z15august


BillD
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 12:20 PM
Re: It's still EARLy...

I just noticed that Earl is follwing the same track as TD3/Charley did, Earl's forecasted track follows Charley's almost exactly for the next two days.

From the 11 AM advisory on Earl:

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES... 40 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRENADA.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 28 MPH ...44 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

From the 5 PM Aug 9 2004 advisory on TD3 (Charley):

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES...45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRENADA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH
...35 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Also Earl is really moving, 28 mph. For now it is just watch and wait.

Bill


HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 12:21 PM
Re: staying left

those are some interesting obs. makes me wonder if the center is jumping around. uncertainty with the system.. it's racing and poorly organized, but showing signs of the ability to make a solid intensity jump. trend is for organization, but that speed is going to undo a lot of work the center is doing to get organized. i was betting right of guidance on the challenge the other night (ed posted one late on earl.. open until midnight tonight).. still a chance i'll land something. as far as westward progression.. it keeps speeding up.. gonna bust there.
HF 1620z15august


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 15 2004 12:37 PM
Earl Next Threat

Everyone almost should get a point for predicting a turn to the n and having no affect on land for Danielle. Earl is really going to be alot tuffer call.
With charley it was soo easy to predict with a mega trough for this time of year over the central gulf and eastern seaboard. My 5 day forcast ended him up just 25miles south of my sarasota landfall area. Called for a Cat 3 but didnt expect 145 especially that rapid ints during the day. Pretty close though.
Wont give a 5 day forcast yet on Earl cause outside of the Yucitan, I dont think U.S. landfall will happen in 5 days.
Earl cant go much faster as it is now. He should start to slow some once it gets near Jamaica Tuesday morning and become a hurricane by then or maybe sooner. He will not become a hurricane within the next24 hours unless recon finds a down burst of wind of that speed or higher. Expecting Monday night or Tuesday on this. I do expect him to stay south of Jamaica and head into the Yucitan on Weds evening. By thurs emerge off the NW area of the Yucitan.
A series a short waves coming out of the southern plains and into the nw gulf will I expect slow Earl down to almost a crawl. By late friday into next weekend a movement to the N followed by NNE or NE as he could be picked up and head towards the eastern gulf from Tampa north to New Orleans. Big spread and this isnt my forcast as of now after Weds. Just a guess. Will update this by monday night or Tuesday morning on my 5 day run. Earl should be a strong cat 1 or more by weds night. After weakning over the Yucitan, a steady strengthning faze will begin once he pulls NW of there slowly. Anything after Weds is just speculation.


1234
(Registered User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 12:50 PM
Re: Earl Next Threat

I don't like what the models are doing with this storm





http://www.hardcoreweather.com


alan
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Aug 15 2004 12:54 PM
More thoughts on Charlie

Wow. I just took a drive to the office downtown. It was amazing where you hit a line and there started to be a lot more damage. Lots of trees down downtown and lots of signs blown out. A few roofs off, but looks like typical catagory 1 damage.

The very interesting thing is my mother and my best friend experienced a completely different storm just four to five miles to my east, if that much. There, the center passed over them in Maitland and then Altamonte Springs. The wind was blowing hard and then it quit. it turned slightly breezy and very humid. About 20 minutes later, the wind blew hard from the other direction, but that didn't last long.

Here on the east side of Apopka, we had some hard winds for about 20 minutes. There is little damage except for a tree that snapped in half across the street. That tree was almost dead anyway.

My friend who was on Pine Island survived the storm. We have heard from him. Nearly every structure on the island is damaged. Most of his house is gone. He had his first meal since Friday today. A hot dog provided by red cross. Watching the radar, the eye brushed the north end of the island on the way to Charlotte Harbor.


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 15 2004 12:55 PM
Re: staying left

Grenada weather obs. at noon:
Winds ESE at 30 mph, rain, pressure going up.
Winds for the last four hours:
9am ENE 14mph
10am Calm
11am WSW 12mph LLC to the NE?
12:00 ESE 30mph LLC to the NW?

I'm learning on the run this season. Grenada sits at 12N 61.5W.
11 am advisory: 11.9N 62.0W


52255225
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:04 PM
Re: More thoughts on Charlie

yeah glad to hear someone mention pine island. my uncle lives there. his house was the only one on jacaranda that made it he says all trees are gone the canal had all the water sucked right out! my Dad is on 75 south from bradenton going to meet him to bring him a generator food etc. no power there their saying for atleast 3 weeks. total devastation.

VolusiaMike
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:08 PM
Update from Volusia County

Just a quick note to update on conditions from Volusia County, Ormond Beach, after Hurricane Charley. Still no power for most of the City, lots of debris everywhere may more than a month before total cleanup.

Michael


alan
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:12 PM
Re: More thoughts on Charlie

Does anyone know where to get a radar loop from Friday?
if you do, post a link. The only place I know of gives the loop from Saturday.
Thanks.


HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:31 PM
joepub

could be that the storm is multi-vortex.. or that the center is oscillating around inside a larger envelope. maybe a new one formed. but yeah, that's how i would interpret those obs.. doesn't match nhc's position estimate. the center they fixed was barely closed and shallow.
good to hear signs of life from pine island. glad the guy made it.
HF 1730z15august


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 15 2004 01:45 PM
Re: Update from Volusia County

Sat here the other night watching Charley exit over Daytona, thinking that could have been us. Jax has sent help trying to help get power restored, but it takes a little while for the crews to find the downed lines, and get the trees off of them. I hope they get you guys up and running real soon, I really love that area.

The obs I posted about Grenada more than likely show that the LLC is moving around some and has passed to the west of the island, either over, or a little south of it. I guess one point may be that it may not be moving as fast,but still in the 20ish range, and it's in the act of getting itself together. Long ways to go, still worried about a breakdown in the stearing flow day 3 on, just can't get a feel for it. Off to work, back for a late look tonight, got tomorrow off. Need a break.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:04 PM
Re: More thoughts on Charlie

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/

Not sure but this may help you some.


SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:12 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

I've been going on other boards and people are already forecasting it to go to such and such a place. It's WAY too early to know. If I had to say today-the front will pull it North anywhere between Morgan City, LA to Apalachicola, FL. Then again-it could go off into Mexico. We really don't know.

The NHC should get a decent handle on it in a couple days.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:36 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

Agreed... a little too early yet. I think the NHC has a good grab on it.... as far out as their forecast period goes. As far as models and some interest in the UKMET... it's last run changed a great amount to the west... for now.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:45 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

off into mexico.. yeah, if it keeps racing that can happen. it isn't gaining a lot of latitude for now, and that's for the better over the long run.
HF 1844z15august


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 02:53 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

A part of the AFD from Tally and what JK for one, has a feeling of...

THE OFFICIAL TPC FORECAST HAS EARL MOVING NNWWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF FRI MORNING AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
MAY PULL EARL TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MID RANGE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT
WELL CLUSTERED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WE STARTED TRENDING THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND.


javlin
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 15 2004 03:08 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

HF wouldn't it help if it gains any lat. the development on the S side then making it track a tad further N.That is one of the things you said last year I never forgot.The proximity to land for development.Earl looks to be tracking just a tad N maybe 275'-280'.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 15 2004 03:31 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

javlin - further south is better in the long run, as HF mentioned, because it likely keeps a weaker storm affecting less people - and not affecting the U.S. at all. If the storm starts to head further north, it's getting stronger and likely affecting the U.S..

Whether it's better or worse in the long run depends on your perception of things, I guess: stronger storm or less impacts on life and property?


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 15 2004 04:09 PM
Danielle a Cat 2 Hurricane

According to NRL, Danielle now has 85knot winds with a central pressure of 975 mb...that would make it a Category 2 hurricane.
--Lou


javlin
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 15 2004 04:10 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

I don't dispute that point Clark at all.I was just tring to point out that maybe any movement to the N in the long run will facilitate development.Thus Earl possibly working the ridge to his N.It just seems to me a more N track of Earl might be inevitable.Hopefully I am wrong like times before.

JimAnderson
(Registered User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 04:17 PM
Dvorak and T-Numbers

Belated Thanks,

I new you guys would come through. Just like to keep up with what I am reading about.

Great Discussion Board and hope Earl just kind of fizzles...We've had enough for a while.

Jim


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 15 2004 04:20 PM
Hurricane Charley Recovery in Central Florida

Here in the Orlando area, recovery from Charley is progressing very slowly. It has been announced today that those people whose power has not yet been restored (over 1 million in central florida alone) will likely be in the dark at LEAST another 7 days. Apparently most of the power for this region is brought up from down south. The power grid down there has been much more severly impacted, so it's like a chain reaction.

On another note, each day since the hurricane, we have gotten very severe thunderstorms in Central Florida. Yesterday saw a flurry of tornado warnings and the same is occuring today. The torrential rains are making an already difficult situation more tenuous. I spent the morning trying to chop up some of the trees lying on my fence, but had to high-tail it indoors because of the weather.

The local people have that "deer-in-the-headlights" look when mention is made of Earl. It's generally agreed that ANY threat of another storm would create a mass panic situation in light of what we just went through. it's hard to decide which would be worse...complacency or hystrical panic..
--Lou


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 04:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Charley Recovery in Central Florida

recmod,

So sorry to hear that. TWC just ran before/during/after Charley video. Hard to imagine the damage...looks a little bit like after Andrew in the hardest hit areas.

If there is any good to come from this it will be no talk of dynagel...because if there was ever a time it could have been used, it was last Friday.

My heart goes out to you and yours and anyone else still reeling.


1234
(Registered User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 04:40 PM
Re: Hurricane Charley Recovery in Central Florida

Amazing Video from Charley

http://www.extremestorms.com/Charli...nta%20Gorda.wmv



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:10 PM
Re: Where is Earl Going?

Interesting change from the NHC.....

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO PREVENT MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE U.K. MET DOES SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY
DAYS 4-5. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS HAS DIFFICULTY TRACKING EARL
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT SUGGESTS A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT ON
THIS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


52255225
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:11 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

looks like earls headed toward mex/tex at this point, according to nhc.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:20 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

That seems to be a temporary relief for us Floridians for the moment. I know the models are just that. Also the initialization of those models can change as fast as the center of circulation. So here is hoping that Earl has a straight narrow predictable course and that his forward speed continues to outrun the capacity to form a solid center!

javlin
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:20 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

Looks to be.I would still not opt out totally on that solution yet.The track will change again maybe even further W.HF is right looking more positive in development 1009mb est.If it strengths enough it goes more N.I would have to comment thou he sure is looking a little more W for the time being.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:31 PM
left/westward?

interesting that models are clustering left and suggesting a flat trajectory/weaker system with earl.. because the outflow has improved some today.. especially to the east. there is a poleward plume tailing back from the northern side of the storm as well.. better defined than earlier. will be interesting if recon finds a sharper center with earl.. looks to have slowed down a tad as well.
danielle has a window to go major in the next few hours.. maybe a few days down the road as it recurves also. intensity will probably cap where the nhc has it, but there is a chance. my last november forecast for the season was 11/6/3.. be kinda funny if the fourth storm of the season is the third major hurricane. how often do your numbers get busted by mid-august?
i was a little suspicious of the gulf/northwest atlantic in charley's wake.. but seems like nothing doing in those areas. got a mind that the piece of the trough grabbing danielle that splits and retrogrades can do something, though models not keen on this idea. just a hunch (those work on occasion).
wave i was earlier thinking of for tuesday is actually about to come off early tomorrow. later in the week when it's past 40w it may become interesting. not close to an invest for now. not sure.. the globals haven't been as keen on the forthcoming waves.. not as consistent anyway. the one coming off or the one back near 0w should at least spawn an invest between them.
HF 2131z15august


ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:40 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

In Cocoa Beach, very little storm damage besides downed tree limbs and one business's sign knocked down. Also, sorry if this sounds like an amateur question, but LI Phil mentioned 'dynagel,' and I was just wondering what it means.
I don't mean to break the non-talk of it; just curious...
Thanks


javlin
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:48 PM
Re: left/westward?

Hf one thing thou the N componets so far go as such 11.1,11.3,11.4,11.7,11.8,11.9,12.0,12.3 this is one of two jumps .3 N,now they want to call it W.What is it that they see?

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:49 PM
Well I just opened a huge can of worms...sorry

The dynagel reference is sort of a running board joke, but since I brought it up, I better explain...

From the NHC FAQ pages click on "C5". Dynagel was thought to be a substance which, if dropped on a hurricane, could reduce it's strength. More of an urban legend than anything else. Sort of like the silver iodide experiments of the 60's & 70's.

I'm sorry I brought it up, but if you require additional explanation, send me a PM and I can tell you the history of the "dynagel joke."

Cheers all,

LI Phil


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:50 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

Its a substance that is reportedly been invented to break up hurricanes. We believe it is half myth and half research. Some of us started to joke about it over the 2001, 2002, 2003 seasons, whenever a potential storm would form and fall apart due to upperlevel stacking problems. IT is now just a joke.

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 15 2004 06:31 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

Thanks, sounds very imposs--, uh, interesting. Nice for a laugh, though.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 15 2004 06:36 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

Well they didn't drop any dynagel into Charley. !!
A few items of news from the Orlando area,
No school monday or tuesday in volusia, seminole and osceola counties. Polk county schols out all next week. Lots of damage here into the millions of dollars. Ice and Water being brought into areas that need it.
I am lucky. I never lost power or had any damage but if I had been just a few miles East, it would have been a much different story.
Thanks everyone on the board for the reports and discussions that kept a lot of us going prior to and during Charley.
Earl looks to be moving too fast to develop very quickly.
I don't even want to think of another storm right now.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 15 2004 07:14 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

Just took another look at EArl on the Infared 1/2 hour loops and although he is experiencing a diurnal cooling of cloud tops. He looks enormous in total diameter. I am hoping to see him downgraded to a use-to-was tomorrow. Of course I am going to prepare as though he was taking dead aim at polk county. I am hearing really, heart wrenching stories around here of people who evacuated to our area to escape Tampa only to have roofs blown off of the places they escaped to and I talked to a woman earlier today in line at a Grocery store who had driven 44 miles to get ice. It is hard not to feel somewhat guilty when our lights did not even go off. Grateful and guilty.

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 15 2004 08:27 PM
Hurricane Charley Video

User 1234 posted a link on the previous page to some video from Hurricane Charley. It appears that link is not functioning.

Here is a functioning link

http://www.extremestorms.com/Charlie%20Core-%20Punta%20Gorda.wmv


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 08:51 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

The 18Z run of the AVN/GFS pretty much kills off Earl and brings in a new player way out & low...... got to look back but I think this may be one HF was speaking of a few post back.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 15 2004 08:57 PM
Re: Models do not bode well right now for GOM...

Woooo. What a weekend. Finally got power back. Charley scored our shed that was suppose to stay tied down to 110MPH. We were lucky. A lot of folks a lot worse off, so I feel lucky with the minor damage. Not something I want to repeat anytime soon. So if I wish for Earl and his siblings to poof out, I hope you all understand.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:01 PM
No recon

Looks like recon had some troubles today before getting out to Earl, as they transmitted their last report after only 5 observations about 4 deg. latitude north of Earl. Suspect mechanical problems, but we'll know more at 11p when the next discussion comes out.

Earl is trying to make a comeback it seems, and the outflow envelope of the storm is very expansive. Danielle continues to look healthy, perhaps with the eye contracting ever-so-slightly. SSTs aren't unfavorable, but there's a lot of dry air in the region at the midlevels. Major hurricane status still isn't out of the question, but it's probably got to do it soon.

New wave - the one HF alluded to - is now emerging off of the coast, still looking fairly healthy...perhaps even better than it did over land. It's got a shot, but the other one behind it may find things a bit more favorable (at least in the short term).


1234
(Registered User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:02 PM
Re: No recon






Never mind they moved the floater on me without telling me



http://www.hardcoreweather.com[/url]


DroopGB31
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:21 PM
Re: No recon

I have a question. Ealier today I saw a guy Live on MSNBC in Punta Gorda and he was talking about the storm damage. He thinks that Charley may not have been a Cat 4 at landfall. He said in the Upper 2, Cat 3 range. Judging from the video I have seen, this was definetly a Cat 4. I think some people dont realize how small this hurricane was at landfall and that onlya very small area really expirenced the strongest winds. It seems though that a large area has been devastated. I just dont think a Cat 3 could cause all the damage the area has seen. I personally believe somewhere near the eyewall could have seen gust in the 155 to 175 mph range IMHO. Does anyone else have comments?

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:26 PM
Re: 173 gust

I read that an unofficial gust recorded at one of the hostiptals in Port Charlotte was 173 Clearly this had winds 130+ just watch some of the video.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:27 PM
Re: No recon

Having seen the way the storm acted first hand, It was extremely compact. Also the speed the system traversed meant that the wind levels were not sustained for the amount of time that a slower moving system would. If the system had been moving slower, it would have expended much more energy and destruction at the landfall point. Instead it spread its destruction far far inland. That is why the damage does not seem up to cat 4. It was a cat 4 system. The damage was mitigated by the forward speed.

52255225
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:27 PM
Re: No recon

I saw it! yep hes got an eye. when I refreshed the page it was gone! whats up with that?

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:31 PM
Re: No recon

Shep from FOX News had a talk w/ Max from the NHC posing the same question. The NHC will go back and study the data and decide if a Cat 3 or 4 made landfall but in the end what happened happened... 10 mph or so really made no difference... it was bad. BTW... Shep Smith used to be at our own Ch7 (home of JK) years ago.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:36 PM
Re: 173 gust

I would tend to think it was a Cat 4 at landfall as well. Maybe someone can work out the wind speeds and rate of deterioration of a landfalling hurricane but it was still a cat 2 when it hit Lake Whales in Polk county and with gusts of 105 mph in Orlando, it had to be pretty strong to hold together on it's over 100 mile journey inland to Orlando.
so much depends on where you are in relation to the eyewall where the strongest winds were experienced.
My sister said that ice was being shipped in from North Carolina to the Volusia county area today.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:41 PM
Re: No recon

I saw that too Clark. I wondered if they were just saving fuel!
Fly out, find tropical storm wind speeds, and fly back! Not Likely-Safety First. Looking at earlier flights today I think that AF985 and AF977 are both flying out of St Croix, as both their lat/ longs from today are in the Caribbean. Looks like the last report, before they turned back, was from west of Dominica.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:52 PM
Big surprise ... latest model runs shifts right..

I think we are in a mode where we are going to shift left and right many times throughout the week... lets start watching trends and see if they can get more clustered over time...

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm


DroopGB31
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 15 2004 09:54 PM
Re: No recon

I totally agree with you Rasvar, If Charley would have sat off the coast for about 2 or 3 more hours we probably would have had a Cat 5. Another thing that minimized damage was how fast it strengthened. The surge wasnt as high because it didnt have a long time to really build up a large surge. The damage would have been alot worse also if it had moved a little slower inland, so instead of seeing 2 hours of bad weather, u'd see 3, 4 maybe 5. I would like to say they got lucky, but really they didnt at all. I guess you could say, things could have been worse.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 15 2004 10:00 PM
Re: No recon

Well i can tell you this for sure, anyone caught in Charleys eye wall DIDN'T FEEL VERY LUCKY... it was bad enough as it was, but you are right, as bad as it was, it could have actually been much worse... and that's unbelieveable to me....

goes to show you, you just never know what these things might end up doing....


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 15 2004 10:02 PM
Re: No recon

Is anyone else able to get satellite shots newer than 0045Z ?

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 15 2004 10:08 PM
Re: No recon

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

01:15 UTC time from GOES
not sure how that equates to Z time


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 15 2004 10:14 PM
Looking rather ragged tonight does Earl

IR loop not to impressive as he is just able to hang on to a small blob of convection pretty close to the center of circulation, or just north of it... watching the IR loop, the blob of convection appears to be moving off to the WNW at about 290 degrees as best as I can tell... so I think he does has a northern component to his motion tonight....

BillD
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 10:15 PM
Re: No recon

I'm also getting 0115Z, but just now. Z = UTC.

Bill


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 15 2004 10:16 PM
Re: No recon

that's what I thought Bill but I'm to tired to look it up... thanks

James88
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 16 2004 10:21 AM
Re: No recon

Looks like recon are having a hard time finding a LLC in Earl, so there is the possibility that it may be downgraded to a tropical wave at the next advisory. However, since this system would probably have a good chance of regeneration, they may give it the benefit of the doubt, like they did with TD #2 not long ago. We shall see.

BillD
(User)
Mon Aug 16 2004 10:25 AM
Re: No recon

James, was just going to post the same thing. They have yet to find any west wind, didn't find it yesterday morning either. And so far lowest pressure they've found is 1011. I would agree that they will probably downgrade it at 11.

Good to have the board back!

Bill


James88
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 16 2004 10:30 AM
Just a tropical wave

It's official, Earl has been downgraded:-

955
WTNT35 KNHC 161420
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

...EARL DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EARL UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


$$


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 16 2004 10:43 AM
Re: Just a tropical wave

I'd be real surprised if we've heard the last of Earl.. I also found a mid level circulation of the system at 14.8 and 71.1, moving west but fighting some shear , looks very similar to the midlevel rotation that got bonnie back as a developing system.... who knows....

Ricreig
(User)
Mon Aug 16 2004 11:15 AM
Re: news coverage

Quote:

It seems odd that the press is all over Punto Gorda and not too much out of Port Charlotte.
Any ideas why?


Frankly, they probably can't get there yet, at least not en-mass.

I live in Orlando, the Eye went right over where I was...the savage wind, the calm, the even more savage wind, the whole number. I am at my Technical Institute where I am a teacher trying to catch up with what the world saw from the outside while I and several million Floridians caught in the middle watched from within. While Charley doesn't compare to Camille whiich I also witnessed from close up, here in Orlando on the East Side of town, we caught the winds of 87 sustained and gusting to 105. I live in a trailer park....'bout 1pm on Friday, I stopped believing the TPC and started believing my eyes, experience and 'gut feelings' and decided to pack what I could save and evacuate. Many of my neighbors didn't listen when I told them to do the same....more than a few now are forceced to evacuate their now destroyed homes and mobile homes in my 'Shadow Hills' mobile home park. Those of us who still have a tin box to go back to all sustained damage, mine, mostly was caused by pieces of a couple down a ways that was totaled. We are without power and all that implies including water and sewer. I am glad to have a refrigerator...I am not glad to have to had to throw out hundreds of dollars worth of food...already starting to rot. My friends house in South Orlando where I spent the night, lost a patio cover/roof, a large tree decided to go swimming in his pool and the squirrels now have a direct path to his roof and of course to the pool. Power is down everywhere, traffic lights are maybe 40% back in service, but immediately after the storm, none, I mean literally none, seemed to survive in the wake of the center and dozens of planes at Executive Airport near my mobile home were destroyed or damaged including a DC-3 from WW-2. The cops, individually, have done a fine job, standing out in the major intersections trying to handle thousands of cars that came over here from Tampa when they thought they were going to be the bullseye. No gas is left at many stations and way over 2/3 of the stations I've been by are without power, and the ones that do remind me of the early 1972 gas embargo with lines of cars 50 or more deep lining the streets waiting their turn. More than one car in line is empty with the driver walking with a small gas can...they ran out of gas waiting in line...

So, don't fault the media, I'm sure the Port Charolette and surrounding areas are MUCH worse than here in the Orlando area, and we are 'walking wounded' ourselves....give it a bit of time....


SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 16 2004 11:21 AM
Re: Just a tropical wave

Quote:

I'd be real surprised if we've heard the last of Earl.. I also found a mid level circulation of the system at 14.8 and 71.1, moving west but fighting some shear , looks very similar to the midlevel rotation that got bonnie back as a developing system.... who knows....





I agree. Earl looks pretty good for a wave this morning! More strong convection than he ever had. Don't think we've seen the last of Earl. If he regenerates-it will be interesting to see where the new center forms!


Ricreig
(User)
Mon Aug 16 2004 11:24 AM
Re: Dvorak

Quote:

This is a hypothetical question. With the path so similar to Charley, is there anything that will prohibit Earl from taking the path that was once predicted for Charley


Nothing that would prevent it, but a ton of things that make it unlikely. Not the least of which is that it likely won't make it here as a storm, but even if it did, the weather to our north and west (cold fronts and such) as well as the strength and orientation of the tropical ridges that existed with Charley will certainly have changed a great deal. I don't see Earl as a significant threat to Tampa or, thank God, to Orlando or the devestated SW coast of Florida. Having said that, it always pays to keep an eye on tropical systems, as you should never forget, nothing, absolutely nothing PREVENTS a repeat, just odds and circumstance make it unlikely.

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Aug 16 2004 11:40 AM
Earl's future

Agree with Richard. While I wouldn't bet against Earl reintensifying, possibly even to hurricane strength, I would pretty much figure only South Texas to be under the gun, so to speak. Earl is probably going to slam into the Yucatan, then go into the BOC, and that is the point where he may recurve slightly.

One can never say "never," of course, but I think Floridians can breathe a lot easier with Earl.

My thoughts and prayers go out to you Richard, and all the others affected. That was some post earlier. It probably belongs in another forum, but for now it stays right here, for all to see.


AmateurJohn
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Aug 16 2004 11:55 AM
Our Charley Experience

I have been keeping a journal of our experience with Charley. I will copy and paste it here. We are doing fine. Our town made it through the storm a lot better off than did the towns just a bit west of us. I know we were very lucky and we feel very badly for the people who lost everything.

Friday, August 13, 2004:
6:30-8:00pm – height of storm passes through Lake Placid. Looks like we may have had gusts up to hurricane strength with sustained winds probably at least 50-60mph. For quite a while, the rain was practically horizontal. Trees outside our house were swaying and bending, but thankfully not breaking.

6:45pm – we lose electric power

Saturday, August 14, 2004:
9:00am – after making sure the house did not sustain any damage from Charley we leave for Ft. Pierce to find a motel with electricity (and air conditioning) for the night Leaving Lake Placid, highway 70 West is closed west of US 27. This is the road that leads into Arcadia, and I suspect the authorities don't want people who don't live there heading that way. Highway 70 West is backed up from its intersection with US 27 all the way to highway 29, a distance of about 5 miles. Between Lake Placid and Okeechobee there is a constant stream of westbound traffic along highway 70 and there is a huge traffic jam through Okeechobee with westbound traffic barely moving. These are all the people who evacuated from the west coast heading back home.

Sunday, August 15, 2004
1:00pm – returned to Lake Placid. Just outside of Ft. Pierce there was an electric sign advising that highway 70 was closed at US 27 and advising motorists to seek alternate routes. This is over an hour from US 27. Traffic was still extremely heavy in Okeechobee. We were able to take the back roads to US 98 to get us home, avoiding the traffic mess along highway 70.

Most of the Lake Placid area seems to have gotten away with relatively minor damage, compared to other areas of the state that were more in the path of Charley’s eye. A lot of tree branches down, some minor property damage. We saw one awning blown into an orange grove. We saw one house with a tree blown onto its roof.

My wife's daycare Center fared pretty well. One window was blown out and another cracked. Other than that, there were a lot of branches and leaves in the parking lot and playground, but otherwise they came out OK. Since there was no electricity there, we took a lot of food out of the refrigerator and freezer and gave it to the folks in the neighborhood who were able to grill it before it spoiled.

7:45pm – our power returned 49 hours after we lost. Most of Lake Placid is still without power. We invited our daughter and her family (who were still without power) to stay with us until their power was restored.

There is a curfew in Highlands County tonight from 9:00pm to 7:00am tomorrow morning.

Monday, August 16, 2004
10:00 – phone service returns. We are now back to normal. The daycare Center got its electricity back, but is still without phone service.


cyclone_head
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 16 2004 12:05 PM
Still Here in Orlando!!

I am here....was a rough ride though. We were at CAT 2....I pray I never have to ride Cat 3 or above....Pics to come later...No power still at my house. Live right downtown Orlando.

Ricreig
(User)
Mon Aug 16 2004 12:16 PM
Re: Earl's future

Quote:


My thoughts and prayers go out to you Richard, and all the others affected. That was some post earlier. It probably belongs in another forum, but for now it stays right here, for all to see.


Thank you sir, and to all the others that have given me insight and knowledge that helped me, and I'm sure many others, to have the ability to make informed decisions that in my case at least, reduced my losses to negligable. The inconvenience is still here, but my losses are low.

Having been through Donna, Camille, a couple in the 40's when I was young, and now Charley, experience has taught me to keep informed. This forum is a great and valuable resource in getting the information needed to make informed decisions. As a pilot, I know weather is important, as a weather hobbiest, I know it is also something we all need to keep informed about. Thanks to you and all who make such valuable information available.


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 16 2004 12:32 PM
Re: Earl's future

It could have been anyone of us who live in Florida. This website has been the most useful tool in gathering our thoughts and action plans and to deprive each other of feeling complacent or going through some form of denial. When there is a giant on the loose as was Charlie we all need to take heed and take appropriate action. Nothing is more important than our own safety and that of our loved ones.

With that said the Cape Verde season has barely begun and there is another wave of interest out in the Atlantic. Also, we must not keep or guard down with the apparent demise of Earl, it may only be for the moment, and may resurrect in the western caribbean, or worse, the GOM.

Charlie teaches us to remain vigilant and always be prepared for the possibility of coming face to face with a giant; it does not have to be our apocalypse but we must respect nature for its might.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 16 2004 12:36 PM
Charley's Lessons and Earl's Future

Hey gang...made it through Charley with minimal damage to our home. We were to the west of Charley's eye, although we did experience some very high wind gusts. We lost a part of our fence surrounding the pool pump and some palm fronds. The neighbor directly across the street lost two trees. There are a lot of screen enclosures around here gone, or ripped apart. Tree limbs everywhere but all in all people in my area were extremely lucky. Not so for the people we know to the east of us. As you've heard most of stories from other Polk county residents, I won't repost it again except to say that it was not pleasant for them. I don't have an anonomometer (sp?) but I can tell you that we had significant winds as we were just on the outer fringes of Charley's western side. I want to post more of a human side to the story and what I've learned from this hurricane.
When the storm began changing it's course and began heading towards Ft. Myers, there was great relief here in our house until we looked at the map. That's when we realized that Charley's eye could pass directly over us. Our relief was short-lived. However, except for BayNews9, who understood what this meant to Polk County and the other inland counties near us, most of the other stations (especially ABC 28) made it sound as if Tampa Bay was completely out of the woods. I got really upset with Dennis Phillips as he kept saying, "Folks, let me just say this again, IF this track verifies, and I believe it will, Tampa Bay had just ducked a huge bullet." Later on, he was still preening his feathers and that's when I picked up the phone. I called the weather desk and told them that I lived in Polk county and could Dennis Phillips stop saying how great he was and start informing the folks in Polk/Highlands/Hardee etc counties what THEY could expect since the storm was making a beeline for us? The veins in my head were practically popping out. It wasn't until about 2-2:45 that he broke into a news conference from one of the Tampa Bay counties to inform the inland counties of the dangers. BayNews9, Tampa Bay's CBS 10, Fox 13 and News Channel 8 had been doing an okay job, but BayNews9 did the best job overall. We were able to make it through the storm with up to date forecasts after that because I think Dennis Phillips got a smack upside the head from his boss.

Then, of course, there were the people the next day who said they weren't expecting Charley to hit them and were mad at the NHC and other stations. I will defend the NHC and the stations here because they continually said that the cone was very important because it could hit on the left side or the right side of the "official" track and that could make a big difference. Well, it did. Those counties that got the hit were in the CONE and they WERE under evacuation orders. If they did not heed them, I'm sorry for them but as Jeb Bush said, they had what they called "Hurricane Amnesia". A lot of close calls here that never came to fruition left people feeling blase about the whole thing. People who stayed in mobile homes after being told of the dangers put their own families at risk. A lot of the elderly didn't leave because shelters don't take pets. That's probably the main reason for the death toll in Punta Gorda. A lot of people didn't leave because they can't drink in shelters or do whatever they want to in shelters. All of these things are what lead to an unnecessary loss of life, and although of course I have compassion for them, I also have a bit of anger for those that want to cast blame on the NHC and other outlets. It simply comes down to being responsible for your own actions. If you're told to leave during a hurricane, then by all means, LEAVE. If you don't, the only place to look for blame after the fact is in the mirror.

Yesterday my sons' football league had their Jamboree. We heard stories of people without electricity, water, etc. who still made the trip here to participate. People around here just a couple of blocks away have no power. We have a lot of gas stations closed. However, there are some people who just can't look past the end of their noses and see how lucky they are...like my son's coach. He was complaining that they should have had more people here because "that damn storm wasn't that bad" and we should have been making a lot more money than we were but because people had "few limbs down they chose not to come." I let loose on him, too. I told him that football may be the center of his life, but there were people all over this county who had NOTHING left, even some of his own players, and if all he cared about was the stupid money he didn't make than he was one sorry individual. I also told him that he might want to take a ride around Polk County and look at the devastation around him and instead of blowing hot air out of his mouth, start using it to help other people. I told him that although he was generally a nice guy, at that time I thought he was a pompous, selfish, uncaring person who didn't have a lick of compassion for anyone. Even the Bucs weren't playing, for goodness sakes! My outburst was quite loud and I have to admit that I was a little embarrassed afterwards, but I didn't really care either way. I fully expected to be told that I would no longer be the team mom for his team, but that never happened. Instead, we were informed over the intercom that $1 of every admission fee would go to the American Red Cross Disaster fund.

I'm sorry that I have gone on so long about this, but I've never been through an actual disaster that hit so close to home and it's amazing the way people react to it. Some of us are just different than others and can only see it when it hits us, unfortunately I see everything and I cry like a baby to see people suffering but I also get mad when people refuse to take responsibility for their actions.

I sure hope that Earl stays a tropical low, but I don't think he will. I also hope that we don't have another storm hit anyone again, but that's unlikely. At least I know what to expect and to all those out there that haven't experienced one and want to, let me forewarn you: the reality is quite different than what you can imagine. It isn't any fun staring at a Cat 4 coming up your back door. A 1 or 2, maybe but not a major one. Be careful what you wish for, my friends. You might just get it.

On top of all that, I just learned that I have strep throat and I am feeling really ratty. So forgive my rantings, feel free to edit anything that isn't necessary and thanks for listening.



LI Phil
(User)
Mon Aug 16 2004 12:52 PM
Storm Stories

The more you guys post, the worse I feel. While I have never met one person on this board, you feel more like family to me than some of even my family members. I suppose as long as you came out of this alive, then you did alright. Hopefully everyone has insurance and the material possessions can be replaced. That won't make it right, but it will make it better.

I've decided to make an executive decision on my own and will discuss it with the other mods...

I'm leaving all the personal storm stories up on the main board. If it helps to ease the healing process, you shouldn't have to hunt for the proper "forum," just post away. This may not go over with my fellow moderators, but at least for the time being put up whatever you want to right here. (within reason).

Everyone here owes John, Mike & Ed an incredible amount of gratitude for having this site, and especially to Mike for trying to keep the site & the important storm info running during the crucial hours before the storm made landfall.

Peace y'all and all be safe.

LI Phil


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 16 2004 02:12 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

Ok I'm back in Southeast VA today, flew from Orlando International (it has roof damage and some gates are malfunctioning)


I'm checking on earl (Quick looks say mexico) and more for later, but tons of things to do for my regular job so it may be a while. I did notice something very odd. On my trip from New Smyrna Beach to Orlando International Airport, we took the Greeneway and crossed over lake Jessup. It's like every fish in the entire lake died, it's a massive fish kill there. Dead fish every few feet all across the lake, I've never seen anything like it.

Anyone know what happened there?


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 16 2004 02:47 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Earl and Danielle

The only thing I can think of is that maybe the lake was emptied when Charley passed through it and then when the back side of it came back in? But I don't know if that would happen in a lake. I know they said that all the water would be pushed out of the mouth of Tampa Bay and then back in, but that's a bay, not a lake.

Another explanation might be some kind of contamination of the lake that could have nothing to do with Charley.


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Aug 16 2004 02:52 PM
Dead fishes

This occurred in 1987, and may be the same cause:

August 13,1987

More than three million fish floated belly up in Lake Jessup in what some called the worst fish kill in the lake's history.

The dead fish, victims of an algae bloom, covered the southern shore of the 10,000 acre lake.

Vultures and alligators feasted on the bloated remains, stacked 20 deep in some places along the shore.

Interesting the date...


Larry
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Aug 16 2004 03:00 PM
Re: Dead fishes

Per the attached link, Hurricane Isabel contributed to fish kills here in NC due to lowered oxygen levels. This could be what happened there too.

Larry

Hurricane Isabel Spawns Fish Kills in Northeastern North Carolina


James88
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 16 2004 05:02 PM
Cape Verde Wave

The wave over by the Cape Verde's looks like it is becoming better organised. Does anyone see this becoming Frances?

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 16 2004 05:25 PM
Charley

Since it looks like Phil is letting us post here, I have some pictures from SW Orlando (Hunter's Creek area) where we took the eye pretty much head on.

http://users.adelphia.net/~parra/charley/index.html

Not as bad as other areas, I know, but since we were so far from landfall I can only imagine how bad it is further south.


James88
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 16 2004 05:57 PM
Re: Just a tropical wave

It doesn't look like Earl will be reborn anytime soon - his remnants are cruising along at 30mph! Now that's fast. While convection is trying to organise itself, I do think it may have trouble keeping up at that kind of speed. Any thoughts?

alan
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 16 2004 06:13 PM
Re: news coverage

A tough story about the DC-3 talked about in a previous post. The owner has spent two years restoring the plane. He was about two weeks from getting the plane in flight before the storm. He chained the landing gear to the tarmac for the storm. After the storm, the landing gear was still chained to the ground and the plane went through three hangars. My friend's plane was in hangar No. 4. Amazing how things work.
At the office today, most people came in. About half were still without power. Almost everyone lost power for at least 12 hours. Damage to a few houses, but nothing too serious. The worst was someone whose parents live in Port Charlotte. Their home is gone.


Ricreig
(User)
Tue Aug 17 2004 07:46 AM
Re: news coverage

Quote:

A tough story about the DC-3 talked about in a previous post. The owner has spent two years restoring the plane. He was about two weeks from getting the plane in flight before the storm. He chained the landing gear to the tarmac for the storm. After the storm, the landing gear was still chained to the ground and the plane went through three hangars. (quote) As a pilot, I feel bad for your friend, and fellow pilots that lost their 'love'. On the other hand, I feel much worse for those that lost everything, or worse, their lives or the lives of loved ones. ... but a DC-3...that is kind of like losing a loved one, isn't it? They don't make them like that anymore. My class is having a discussion about this right now....I teach at High-Tech Institute and we were talking about Charley, the damage, loss of life and property. I mentioned the DC-3 to them and someone said...so what...it was an old airplane.... I told them that the plane was part of a breed that made a real contribution to the defeat of the Hitler Ilk....He happens to be a black student....He then said, you know, that plane *was* important....I probably wouldn't be here if the Allies had lost the war, Hitler didn't like blacks too much, did he? ....he too was then sad at it's loss.

suziar
(Registered User)
Tue Aug 17 2004 09:23 AM
Re: Just a tropical wave

Hello, I can't find any information on the exact path and direction of Hurricane Charley and I am wanting to know if my brother, who actually likes to be kept private, all I can say is that his business is Art Glass; if I think he needs some assistance at this time, I will then call him. If Palm Harbor area was spared, I'd like to know. Thanks, Suziar

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 17 2004 10:17 AM
Re: Just a tropical wave

Wind gusts in Palm Harbor maxxed out around 25mph. No damage at all.


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