MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Aug 27 2004 09:17 PM
Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

Tropical Depression #7 has formed off the coast of South Carolina, and is expected to move inland and be a rain event. It's not expected to strengthen much, but it depends on how long it remains over the water. Therefore Tropical Storm watches are up from Surf City in North Carolina to Fernandina Beach in Florida.



Frances is still moving along, and will be something to watch here in the US as the Labor Day weekend approaches. Right now it's forecast to continue to be in a favorible area for strengthening, and has a chance to become at Category 5 over water at some point. (Note I don't suggest that it will near any land as this) In any case Frances is looking very impressive on satellite.

More to come.

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Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

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NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
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Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Aug 27 2004 09:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

Thanks for the new forum Mike!

TD7 is probably just a fairly strong rainmaker, but anyone in NC & SC had better pay some close attention..could ramp up. Frances is the bigger worry, but that's a week or more away.

Everyone stay safe.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 27 2004 09:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

I personally think it will be JAcksonville or Georgia that will get the visit as it seems to be drifting South but what they hey do I know..

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 27 2004 10:15 PM
Re: Frances

looks as if frances has gone threw her first eyewall replacement tonight. It also looks like the movement in last few frames is more west than north! Think now she will pass closer to the islands than first thought. Also, may just be me, but had TD 7 gone farther south than forcasted? could it be possible TS watch in morning be drawn farther down into florida? Forecast for Fran... think somewhere near south florida in 6-7 days as cat 3-5. Also think in 4 days we will see the largest peace time evacuation in history, if she should threaten the SE U.S.... Also i see something trying to form off africa in two days.... August going out with a BANG!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 27 2004 10:20 PM
Re: Frances

If TD7 becomes TS Gaston and some of the other possibilities play out (Burmuda system and a E. Atl wave?), August 2004 will easily become the most active August (or month) ever if it isn't already.

BTW, does anyone know how many storms formed in the most active August and the most active month overall? I think 7 in September 2002 is the most for September and usually that month has more activitiy that August, but if anyone knows this stuff...

In any case, this is all insane; we've had what could be an entire season in 28 days.


edwinberrios
(Registered User)
Fri Aug 27 2004 10:31 PM
Re: Frances

Before I read your post I was showing the same westerly movement to my wife. I agree that over the past two or three hours (I am writing this at 10:30 PM) Frances seems to have started moving on a more westerly direction. Lets see what the 11 PM Forecast brings.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 27 2004 10:44 PM
Re: Frances

NHC eye getting bigger!

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Aug 27 2004 10:49 PM
Re: Frances

per NHC it should track on a NW to WNW track for the next 24 hours.... this is consistent with what I've see lately on the IR loops...... looks to be more WNW than NW but really hard to pinpoint with IR..... NHC said its been tracking about 310 degrees of late.... should start a more wnw track later in the forecast period..... the strenght of the ridge will determine where this system ends up.... anything is possible.... another Andrews track, Hugo possibly.... still too early to call but regardless looking like this thing could be a big problem for someone....

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 27 2004 10:58 PM
Re: Frances

with the eye replacement..... ususally within 6-12hrs there is a jump in intensification .... so i think she will grow tonight and into the morning and be a CAT 3 by lunch time sat.... i notice that the UKMET seems to somewhat on track with this forecast lately... The ridge seems to be picked now by more models and looks to be turning the more westerly than previous forecast.... i think she we brush the northern islands now and or create some very big surf....

HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Aug 27 2004 11:25 PM
threats

close in: t.d. 7 is meandering.
the system is progged to go west and may or may not do this.. seeing model interpretations of invest 98L to the east indicating a binary interaction of the two. it may re-develop further south of it's current position. the nhc forecast has a recurving path.. my guess is that it will move more slowly and be less quick to respond to nearby changes in upper flow by the proximity to it's neighbor. expect it to organize at or slightly slower than indicated by official guidance and stay offshore longer as well. lots of subsidence in the area may keep it in check somewhat. may or may not get carried out by the westerlies as progged by the approaching shortwave.. potential to hang out longer than indicated.. especially if it interacts much with the system to the east.
further out: 98L.. potential system.
modeling has been less vigorous with this system, but i'm thinking it may be wrong to have less confidence. an upper vortex has drifted southwest overhead of the surface system, and like t.d. 7 it is now in an outflow-enhanced area. this system has a good chance to start developing tomorrow as it moves generally west. the more it develops, the more t.d. 7s current prog is thrown out the window. end result can easily be a system that moves NE of t.d. 7 (which should be gaston tomorrow) and gets carried out in it's stead near hatteras early next week.
thoughts on td 7 and 98L are what i'll call unique... i usually don't stray that far from the official, but have some weird ideas about these systems i can't shake. probably two courses of crow, but who's counting?
far out but getting closer: cat3 frances.
already beginning eyewall replacement cycles.. makes me doubt it will make cat 5 status.. thinking 4. purely a hunch, not something to take me to court on. long range prog right now is further south than what i was envisioning for the system early in the week.. much further south. a labor day weekend landfall of this system is what i'm going to go with. i'm not going to put in a location until the system is around 70w.. but am thinking the east coast of florida at this point. that will shift north if anything. safest bet is always the north carolina coast as a cat 2, but until i can see the floyd/isabel scenario taking shape.. and it is looking rather unlike that track (though also unlike andrew, which i keep hearing but don't buy into). we have a week to watch this thing draw closer and fine tune it.. but until modeling starts poking holes in that ridge i'm becoming convinced that somebody gets nailed.
time to go post a challenge. we've got some bullets to dodge.
i'll shorten and borrow the usual parting comment from fox news' shepherd smith: stay aware.
HF 0325z28august


meto
(Weather Guru)
Fri Aug 27 2004 11:49 PM
Re: threats

if frances goes thru south central bahamas it will be on andrew's track thru there. and there is a good chance it will be a very strong 4 or 5 very dangerous hurricane.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 27 2004 11:52 PM
Re: threats

Nice job hank. Differnce between Frances and Floyed after 70W will be that there is no big trough over the eastern gulf 5 days from now, Infact past long term runs from 144-240 continue to show ridging in the mid and upper levels. Not going out like i posted earlier today on more then a 5 day forcast but unless models change, I dont see anything more then wnw during the next 7-10 day frame. Things will be interesting. Hurricane watches might go up as early as Sat night for the NE carribean islands.
scottsvb


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 28 2004 12:27 AM
Golly..

looks like there isn't much to make Frances turn more west the next 72 hours except the shear she's in right now. Am I reading this right?

All we need is an east to west coast Cat 4/5 down here right now. Not good.


HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM
Re: Golly..

it's early. often these systems have a way of working out for the better.. charley being the only major exception to that rule in the last ten years. frances has already been hyped out the wazoo.. and it's still a week or so away. remember earl had lots of people pretty worked up just two weeks ago, and look what happened there. isabel, lili, floyd, opal.. there is a long list of recent systems that could have been storm of the century, but fumbled ashore as 10-25 year storms.. odds are frances will find a way to do the same.. assuming it makes it across (still not a certainty, but becoming a better bet with time).
HF 0450z28august


Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM
Re: Golly..

I live in Southern Brevard county (Palm Bay). For the last 2 weeks, all I have been hearing is how Southern Brevard doesn't get hit by hurricanes. And that how we were supposed to get Hurricane force winds here with Charley, and didnt. I have prepared for the last 3 or so storms that threatened to make appearances ( Floyd, Irene and recently Charley). Although we haven't been hit directly by these storms, doesn't mean it won't ever happen. Just wanted to get that out there. Hopefully people will always prepare themselves. And if it doesn't hit you, thank God. Consider your preparations as practice.

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 28 2004 01:12 AM
Re: Golly..

Yes you have to be prepared to #1 protect yourself from the storm, and #2 to be self sufficient for at least 3-7 days. Trust me help does not get to you quickly after the storm passes you, so you need to have enough supplies to get you through. Everyone gets very excited about these storms, inlcuding me, however, if you have ever had a hurricane pass through your city ( I have had 2, Andrew and now Charley) the worst part of the storm is the aftermath. Finding gas, waiting in long lines for ice, trying to find batteries and other essential items, going without electricity and water, its a major hassle. Not to mention the cleanup, having to wait for Insurance Adjusters (check your policy for a huge windstorm deductible if you live in FL) and then having to battle out claims with your insurance, trying to find roofers to temporarily dry your house in, and getting estimates from contractors who cant come out to see you for months which inturn delays your insurance claims, and then there is debri cleanup , this is all one major headache. Take it from me, the hurricane itself is a major and very dangerous rush, however, the aftermath is a major major pain in the A$$.

Again, check your insurance policy careful for huge deductables and also be aware that some major insurance companies have made some very major changes to your homeowners/windstorm insurance regarding coverage, or lack there of.. I have had to hire a Public Adjuster because of my Insurance Companies response. They are very very tight with their wallets these days... Mine wouldnt even cover hotel expenses when I was without water/power in my house.. So becareful and read your policies.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 02:09 AM
TD 7

Looking at sat for last 6hrs on TD 7 seems to show it getting better organized. There is great banding over center and to the east of center. Storms are starting to wrap around low level. We could have a TS by 11:00am, or atleast by 5:00pm... Think recon later today will help upgrade to a storm... if anything else, it looks to be heading now SSW AT 5 or so....

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 28 2004 02:12 AM
Re: Golly..

Sorry to hear that things are still such a mess. Hope that the red tape will end soon for you all. If and when you have time
maybe you could make up a quick checklist for others to go by on the Disaster board.
For those who want to check and see if their area has been hit before. NOAA has a Historical Hurricane Tracks web site.
http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 28 2004 02:21 AM
Re: TD 7

I just heard one of the mets/Hur Hunters, on Wx Chan just say the same thing. The wrap was different and the lat/longs and distance from Charleston had changed in the last 3 hrs.
Also stated that they thought Frances was ending her eyewall cycle and might begin to strengthen again.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 02:48 AM
Re: TD 7

yeah, think Frances is making comeback now. IR in last hr is better than 3hrs ago. Also, eye appears to have gotten bigger since replacement.... Forward speed has slowed alot and it seems a north jog durning eye replac. may have taken place...a wobble here, means hundreds of miles difference in 5 days. Still i am going with a SE florida landfall though, into GOM....

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 28 2004 03:03 AM
Re: 0615z Satellite Obs

The satellites are back up. Frances eye is about half the size it was at 0345Z.
High cloud tops (Dvorak-white) from the 6 o'clock position to the 11 o'clock position. Eye appears elliptical and has rotated from a 9 o'clock position to a 6 o'clock position.
Outflow on the eastern side is marked by thin cirrus clouds.
The large cloud layer and western feeder band appear to have been intruded on by drier air, as they have broken down somewhat.
There may be an increase in westerly shear, but due to the satellites just coming back on line, 1 frame doesn't tell a lot.


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 28 2004 06:09 AM
So far...Frances is on track

I woke up today resolved to start planning for what is becoming clearer to me that Frances MAY strike SE (WPB area) and head out to the GOM via Bradenton/Tampa. Of course, it all depends on the strength of the ridge and when it will curve Frances westward. So far NHC is on track with this respectable storm. But I do believe that all interests living on barrier islands from the Keys to the Outer banks need to start working on their Plan Bs and Cs

LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 06:09 AM
Re: Golly..

They say the same about the Daytona Beach area, because we are in a bend and have the effects of the Gulf Stream as well. I don't buy it. I think its complacency.

MaryAnn

Quote:

I live in Southern Brevard county (Palm Bay). For the last 2 weeks, all I have been hearing is how Southern Brevard doesn't get hit by hurricanes. And that how we were supposed to get Hurricane force winds here with Charley, and didnt. I have prepared for the last 3 or so storms that threatened to make appearances ( Floyd, Irene and recently Charley). Although we haven't been hit directly by these storms, doesn't mean it won't ever happen. Just wanted to get that out there. Hopefully people will always prepare themselves. And if it doesn't hit you, thank God. Consider your preparations as practice.




LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 AM
Re: So far...Frances is on track

All of us on the SE US coast need to watch. Here is what the NWS of Melborne had to say in its 5 am weather discussion:

NOTE TO USERS...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HURRICANE FRANCES CLOSELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST TRACK STRENGTHENS THIS ALREADY MAJOR (CATEGORY 3 ON SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE) HURRICANE EVEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS
LATE WEDNESDAY.


jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 06:19 AM
Re: Golly..

Quote:

They say the same about the Daytona Beach area, because we are in a bend and have the effects of the Gulf Stream as well. I don't buy it. I think its complacency.

MaryAnn

exactly,
any system being steered by a strong blocking high doesnt care about bends or gulf stream..in fact it might like the gulf stream for a little energy boost after along tiring journey across the atlantic

Quote:

I live in Southern Brevard county (Palm Bay). For the last 2 weeks, all I have been hearing is how Southern Brevard doesn't get hit by hurricanes. And that how we were supposed to get Hurricane force winds here with Charley, and didnt. I have prepared for the last 3 or so storms that threatened to make appearances ( Floyd, Irene and recently Charley). Although we haven't been hit directly by these storms, doesn't mean it won't ever happen. Just wanted to get that out there. Hopefully people will always prepare themselves. And if it doesn't hit you, thank God. Consider your preparations as practice.







danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 28 2004 06:34 AM
Re: TD 7

Hate to change the subject here, but TD 7 is beginning to build some CDO-like convection over the LLC. Eastern half of the storm is wrapped nicely, and has some outflow.
GA/SC/NC in for some rain-lots of it.


LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 07:38 AM
Re: TD 7

According to the 8 am advisory, you are right on target:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION


Quote:

Hate to change the subject here, but TD 7 is beginning to build some CDO-like convection over the LLC. Eastern half of the storm is wrapped nicely, and has some outflow.
GA/SC/NC in for some rain-lots of it.




Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 08:09 AM
Re: So far...Frances is on track

Recent IR pics and first visible show an improved appearance this morning. A ring of red around the eye this morning. It looks to have reorganized itself overnite.

A lot of areas along the coasts of US have that (NIMB) not in my backyard attitude about strong storms visiting them. I think many listen to neighbors who have lived an area for a 'longtime'. The 'longtime' might be 40 years which historically isn't such a along time.
Remember areas hit hardest by Charley hadn't been hit hard since Donna in 1960. My local areas last big one was in 1949. Only a small percentage of people living here on the, Treasure Coast, of Florida have even heard of that storm. Please to all, listen to official NHC and local advisories and act accordingly.

I didnt mean to get off topic for this page so move it if needed.
It looks like by Monday areas of Florida will be in the 5 day long range cone and this board will really get active.
Hurric


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 AM
Re: So far...Frances is on track

Quote:

All of us on the SE US coast need to watch. Here is what the NWS of Melborne had to say in its 5 am weather discussion:

NOTE TO USERS...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HURRICANE FRANCES CLOSELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST TRACK STRENGTHENS THIS ALREADY MAJOR (CATEGORY 3 ON SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE) HURRICANE EVEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS
LATE WEDNESDAY.




I find this interesting also: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
It appears the NHC is betting on the southern models which take Frances much closer to S. Florida rather than the models showing a turn to a more northerly track. Having just gone through the eye of Charley here in E Orlando, several of my neighbors 'homes' (mobile home) are now in a dumpster...or the pieces are, and if Frances does hit almost anywhere on the E Coast of Florida, then recurves as the 'northern models' suggest, just later, this one could also find a way to add to the debris of my neighborhood using my now dented mobile home as additional missiles. I hope the NHC is wrong and it does recurve as some of these models suggest, but I fear they are right.

Does anyone have info about how well the UKMET model has done on this storm? It shows a bias toward Central East Coast of Florida. If the enclosed URL is any indication, the NHC and the UKMET are in close agreement.


HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 08:43 AM
saturday AM situation

frances chugging along unchanged from last night. guidance still taking the storm into/near the bahamas late in the forecast period.. insinuating that it will strike the east coast in a week. my take unchanged.. storm will go north of the caribbean islands, strike the east coast on or about saturday, september 4th.. quite possibly in the cat3-4 range.
going to fine tune what i said about td7 and 98L last night... and add two other suspect areas for next week. idea about td7/98L binary action may not be as pronounced as i was reckoning last night.. still calling for it, but the ridge should shift east before they get anything real interesting going. td 7 is deepening and should begin to move west today. may intensify quite a bit before it reaches the coast, as per the level of organization it has attained. didn't move as much as i was reckoning last night, so it shouldn't quite get the landfall position i progged just eight hours ago.. somewhere on the sc coast though. should landfall at a high angle late sunday.. perhaps early am monday.. thinking around fripp/edisto at this point. may be a minimal hurricane, but probably a high end tropical storm. should be moving erratically at that point as it interacts with the tropical system passing by to the northeast. based on the forecast pattern it may get 'stuck' instead of carried out to sea.. though models trending less in that direction now.
98L i'm going with development.. later today. no dvorak #s yet.. should change soon. think tropical storm potential.. probably low to mid range... at least through monday. unless more of the ridge periphery sticks than forecast, it should break through and clear hatteras by a couple hundred miles. still going with this as the sacraficial recurvature lamb.
new area of interest appearing in some modeling in the northern gulf for mid week, upcoming. the shortwave energy currently over the southern plains should have a significant piece left behind (trough splitting is the name of the game in this pattern). in other words, there may be another spin-up system near the louisiana coast in early september.. models vary on how far south this feature will be released.. if it gets a decent distance offshore development chances will be present more than if it is hanging over the delta.
the surface flow that helped frances close off a few days ago continues in a weaker form.. wave energy is out of sync behind the system, but global models are consistently developing at least one new tropical cyclone out there during the upcoming week. hard to ID the perp.. as things are so out of whack.. both the spread system near 28w and the one emerging today are potential developers down the line. it's longtracker season, so we should get a few more out of there during the coming weeks.
put a forecast challenge up at oh-dark-thirty last night in the storm forum. big players out there right now, head on over and see if you can reason out their moves.
HF 1243z28august


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 08:44 AM
Re: So far...Frances is on track

Both storms improved between the 5am adivosry and the 8. Frances has gone almost donut shaped on IR, and #7 is expanding with every new photo that comes in.

TPS


Kevin
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 28 2004 08:46 AM
Re: So far...Frances is on track

Although I can't tell you for sure how well the UKMET has done with Frances, I think that the model has had a right bias with Frances throughout the storm's entire life. Someone please correct me if I am wrong. So...the latest leftward shift is somewhat disturbing. This is the second or third run of the UKMET that has taken the storm more towards the left. Here's a good graphical representation of some of the models:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
You can see the UKMET model track, a track that will either cause Frances to make landfall in EC Florida or a very close brush. The tropical models, the two BAMM outputs, look alright track-wise but also seem to be a little slower. The BAMMs are better for storms in the deep tropics. The GFDL, well, is an outlier. Its track shows that the model may not have a very good handle on the high pressure system that will be anchored north of Frances.

So, there's still plenty of time to watch, but this storm has some hints of Floyd to me. If you have 7-day longwave spacing, then we should have another trough approaching the eastern US in another 7 days...next Saturday. How close Frances is along with her exact position will determine the effects on Florida, if any.


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:09 AM
Re: So far...Frances is on track

Quote:

this storm has some hints of Floyd to me


We are apparantly thinking along the same lines. BTW, I evacuated for Floyd (trailers aren't good places to brave storms) and as I remember, it bent a number of road signs down around Ft Pierce/Stuart then eroded more of the Daytona area beaches, if I recall correctly. Let's hope that is all Frances ends up doing at worst....anyone know who has any batteries in stock....I still can't find any stores that have more than a couple

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:19 AM
Re: So far...Frances is on track

Richard, most Lowes and Home Depot have restocked their batteries. They are relatively easy to find. Saw a mess of them last night in Lowes.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:22 AM
Re: So far...Frances is on track

Looks like Frances will have a very similar track to Floyd-including the offshore turning to the north. The situation with all of the fronts off the coast seems to be continuing, if they are developing things into tropical storms and depressions. Frances may become a 4 or 5, but will likely hit the Carolinas around Sep 4-5 with winds 115-125 (around the time Fran hit in 1996)

TD7 will likely become a tropical storm at 11

98L will probably be a TD by tomorrow and a TS by Monday


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:22 AM
observations?

everyone post where they think TD7 is headed.

Then, take a look at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF and tell me if Frances doesn't have to cross some fairly consistent shear before those in Florida should start worrying. Any possibility the shear rakes Frances more to a northerly coaurse (ie: SC or NC) or is the shear not strong enough?


HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:30 AM
Re: observations?

go check out the storm forum.. there's a thread already dedicated to just that.. and frances track as well.
HF 1330z28august


HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:34 AM
9:30 update

dvorak ratings are in:
frances at 5.0.. nhc may consider reducing the intensity to 95kt, but will likely keep it at 100kt.
t.d. 7 has 3.0 rating.. which would normally constitute a mid-range tropical storm. nhc will almost surely upgrade at 11am, and if this organization trend on satelite translates to intensity change.. hurricane watches or warnings may go up later today.
98L at d1.5. probably a depression by the 5pm advisory today... slight chance it will be at 11am. it is developing, and moving west a bit more quickly.
HF 1334z28august


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:35 AM
Re: observations?

Quote:

Any possibility the shear rakes Frances more to a northerly coaurse (ie: SC or NC) or is the shear not strong enough?


....a related question: Which will affect its' path more, the shear or the ridge to the northeast? ... and why?

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:37 AM
Re: So far...Frances is on track

I am hoping that you are right that Frances will be similiar to Floyd. However, I think a lot will depend upon how far west the ridge builds. Its all speculation at this point. If the current NHC Forecast proves correct, this is looking less like a NC/SC storm I think, more of a FL or Georgia Storm. Again purely speculation on my part..

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:41 AM
Re: So far...Frances is on track

Quote:

Again purely speculation on my part


...aren't we all. Even the NHC and other professionals. No one knows, we all speculate and possibly hope Francis <= Floyd.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:46 AM
Floyd vs. Frances

On one hand, Frances isn't anywhere near as big as Floyd was and there might not be as much rain due to her as there was directly due to Floyd, which is a good thing if they have similar tracks.

On the other hand, we have TD7, probably Gaston, and possibly TD8 to swamp the NC/SC/GA area before the arrival of Frances (just like we had Dennis before Floyd) so a similar track would probably still produce monstrous flooding.


SC Bill
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:55 AM
Re: observations?

There is a well known poster on this Board who has a set destination and landfall strength for every system anywhere (do I have to be any more specific?). I am tempted to do the same thing, at least with a destination, as has already been pointed out the Savannah GA - Beaufort SC area is both way overdue and probably way too complacent. TD 7 blowing through here as a weak tropical storm might, in a way, be a good thing, as I believe the "strength" of even a weak or moderate tropical storm would open many people's eyes.

So, where is TD 7 going? I am leaning with the crowd which thinks it is going to meander a bit longer than the official forecast and gain a bit more strength. Landfall, just north of Charleston, SC?

>>> There is a well known poster on this Board who has a set destination and landfall strength for every system anywhere (do I have to be any more specific?).

Surely that wouldn't be rickonboat?


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:56 AM
Re: Floyd vs. Frances

Fortunately, the NHC's speculation is based upon a lot of experience and expertise. I do not think I buy into a NC/SC landfall. We shall see, by the end of the weekend we will start seeing a 5 day forecast emerge that where it will effect CONUS.

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:58 AM
Re: Floyd vs. Frances

Quote:

On one hand, Frances isn't anywhere near as big as Floyd was and there might not be as much rain due to her as there was directly due to Floyd, which is a good thing if they have similar tracks.

On the other hand, we have TD7, probably Gaston, and possibly TD8 to swamp the NC/SC/GA area before the arrival of Frances (just like we had Dennis before Floyd) so a similar track would probably still produce monstrous flooding.



I remember well...it changed my vacation plans...Unlike Noah, I didn't have an Ark and many of my favorite destinations were very much under water. Well, I did say I hope Frances is a Floyd...at worst! Floods kill and damage as much as winds and hurricanes often do both at the same time. Lest we forget...


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 09:59 AM
Interesting 00 GFS model run

What I'm looking for right now as I peruse the models is what they are doing with the ridge, and how it is playing out long term, how strong, will it have any weaknesses to allow Frances to slip off to the north... GFS model (for what its worth) shows the ridge to be strong enough to move Frances toward the southern part of Florida and eventually into the GOM... ending up in SE Louisiana.... very similar to a Georges track..... hey its just a model... another data point to screw me up as I try to analzye this thing...

here is the link, it takes a while to download, 48 plots... its worth the wait if you live in S Fl or N GOM....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_p06_l_loop.shtml


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:04 AM
Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run

Quote:

here is the link, it takes a while to download, 48 plots... its worth the wait if you live in S Fl or N GOM....


Great URL...this is saying that N.O. needs to watch this beast too if I read this right, and the Keys are in for a beating?

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:09 AM
NWS S FL early morning discussion references the GFS

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TODAY...MAKING IT INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TONIGHT.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND T.D. SEVEN...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALL THE WAY
UP TO 300 MB BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AS SUCH...SEA BREEZE FORMATION IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREAS...DUE TO THE WSW FLOW.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOWARDS THE GULF
COASTAL AREAS.

Basically Frances is espected to take the path of least resistance, and should track around the outer edge of the high pressure ridge... IF it move back northward as discuss above, then Frances will be on the lower edge being steered off to the west or wnw or nw, depending on the position and strength of the ridge..


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:14 AM
Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run

Exactly,,,, but.............
IF, IF, IF... uh did I say IF this model comes any where near to fruition, then you could very well have a double hit with a major storm... a real worse case scenario, and the KEYS and NO do show up near ground zero in this model run... of couse it will change over time....... all this really proves is the uncertainly of Frances track.... however, that being said... over the next couple of days, models start to cluster in a similar agreement, then I might starting worrying alittle... not yet though..


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:23 AM
Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run

I wasn't so much worrying about the possibilities this model shows, but was exhibiting a sigh of relief at the hope that next Saturday, my birthday will not include Frances here in my neighborhood. But, as you say, it's only a model and most of the models I've played with in my 62 (almost) years of playing with them, all crash and burn Well, it's still fun playing...it's the real ones we have to worry about in the long run....

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:25 AM
Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run

Quote:

Quote:

here is the link, it takes a while to download, 48 plots... its worth the wait if you live in S Fl or N GOM....


Great URL...this is saying that N.O. needs to watch this beast too if I read this right, and the Keys are in for a beating?





That's not a great URL cause it would take it right up Mobile Bay


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:32 AM
Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run

Quote:

That's not a great URL cause it would take it right up Mobile Bay


Let me rephrase it...it is a great link depicting one models view of the possible future. On the bright side, the model seems to indicate a weakening trend by the time it arrives in that area....Can you take the rain?

joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:38 AM
Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run

The GFS has stayed with this S/FL-Keys scenario for a few runs in a row, which makes you think it can't be completely bonkers. It has played to the left most of the time while the UKMet has played the right side. It's the UKMet that's coming toward the GFS, giving a reason to not quite make this a Carolina problem just yet. Five days ago I think some models thought this was going to be a fish, most havn't had a good read on the ridge to the north. We shall see...

Anybody want to let me know if they think Frances has lost some of that north movement this morning, or is the sun playing tricks with the visable sat pics?


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:41 AM
still a TD at 11?

either NRL has not updated the site, or TD7 wont be upgraded at 11, because it still says NONAME
are they waiting for the recon maybe? any thoughts?


LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:45 AM
Gaston

We now have Gaston. And Frances is building slowly. 120 mph and pressure falling to 958 from 962.

LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

Here is the 10 am weather discussion from Melborne. What are they hinting at?

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MAIN EFFECT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
A DEEP WESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA FOR STORMS. LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE FRANCES AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL
REFRACT AROUND THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND MOVE INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:52 AM
Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run

Quote:

The GFS has stayed with this S/FL-Keys scenario for a few runs in a row, which makes you think it can't be completely bonkers.

Anybody want to let me know if they think Frances has lost some of that north movement this morning, or is the sun playing tricks with the visable sat pics?


Just looked at the WV loop...still NW movement so far as I can tell. As for the GFS vs UKMET, so far as I've seen so far, only the GFS is picking that scenereo...or am I missing one. I'll be interested to see if the UKMET (and the NHC) keep trending toward this solution. My problem is that the ridge extending S and W early in the week then retreating by mid-week, gives Frances time to recurve back to the North-NW just in time to still make a SE coast landfall either via Florida or just missing it. At least it seems this way at present. It's all a guess and the best guessers so far have been the NHC, but being human, they can and do make mistakes so we all need to stay informed. This could affect any one of us real soon.

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 10:57 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

Quote:

BY HURRICANE FRANCES AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL
REFRACT AROUND THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND MOVE INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS

Here is the 10 am weather discussion from Melborne. What are they hinting at?



I think they are not buying the GFS solution about going to the GOM just yet either. It does sound more like they think the Floyd analagy is closer to the truth.

ticka1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 11:16 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

I am reading everyone's discussions on Frances but I still see the NHC track trending more and more towards the lower Florida Eastern Coast aka Key West and Miami - is there going to be a sharp turn in there and pulls her up the to the Eastern Coast? Just curious?

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 28 2004 11:32 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

several of the forecast models take Frances into the Southeastern Bahamas at six days out

also there are two tropical storms forecast to form in the eastern Atlantic by then


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 11:32 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

Quote:

I am reading everyone's discussions on Frances but I still see the NHC track trending more and more towards the lower Florida Eastern Coast aka Key West and Miami - is there going to be a sharp turn in there and pulls her up the to the Eastern Coast? Just curious?


Yes it will turn. The question is timing. The ridge to the NE is building which will delay the turn, pushing the storm to the west. By mid-week, it is expected to receed to the north somewhat. This should pull the storm around its' left end, north west or even NNW. As Frances has slowed somewhat, it may still be far enough east so that the curve brings it off the East Coast of Florida by Saturday. If it speeds up however, that turn could be heading toward Mobile per the GFS. I think the NFS is holding their course till a trend develops they can put their finger on. Most of the models I've seen show a N-NW turn mid-week. The main difference is how far west before that happens.

joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 28 2004 11:33 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

I think they are not buying the GFS solution about going to the GOM just yet either. It does sound more like they think the Floyd analagy is closer to the truth.

I don't think the GOM is likely to happen either. That being said.....this has been a very strange season in which a lot of the old rules have gone by the wayside. Bertha/Floyd are good storms to go by if you believe that's whats going to happen, but this year the unusual has happened so often (7 named storms,3 majors all in the month of August???) and the patterns, to say the least, have not been the norm. I just can't buy into a Carolina landfall at this point; I'm not convinced this storm ever makes a hard turn to the NW again (I believe it's coming back to WNW right now as I type) until it hits something on the east coast.


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 28 2004 11:34 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

Dont bother checking the NHC outlook--it is about 12 hours behind

outdated


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 02:58 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

Does anyone think that Frances might turn, but do it to late and hit Florida? In this case, East Central Florida would be in the line of fire.

FlaRebel
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 03:04 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

I'm not sure where she is going, but she is a beautiful thing. She seems to be getting bigger by the minute. No longer a small compact storm that she was yesterday. I would not want her knocking on my door for sure.

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 03:20 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

Frances's T numbers are up to 6.0.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html


Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 28 2004 03:21 PM
from the NWS Melbourne Discussion at 3pm

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING UPPER HIGH OVER THE ATLC AND BENDING POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES MORE TO THE WEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SHE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND APPROACH THE SE BAHAMAS THU. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FRANCES COULD RECURVE...IF IT FINDS ENOUGH WEAKNESSES
IN THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF IT. BY EXTRAPOLATING THE NHC DAY 5 POSITION...HAVE DECIDED TO SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING NE TO E WINDS FRI...BECOMING WINDY SAT.


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 03:29 PM
Frances T Number

>>>>>>>>>Frances's T numbers are up to 6.0.<<<<<<<<<<<

That would support a Cat 4 storm.....

My recent observations: Frances appears to be bending back WNW in the past several satellite frames. The storm is also strengthening. The eye is much more distinct and very symetrical. Also, the cloud tops continue to cool.

--Lou


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 03:37 PM
Re: Frances T Number

NRL now has Frances at 130 mph, with central pressure 948 mb (27.99)

--Lou


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 03:40 PM
Gaston nearing hurricane strength

Recon went out to Gaston and found something much more than a minimal tropical storm...they almost found a hurricane.

Vortex message is reporting an extrapolated 996mb pressure with max flight-level winds of 59kt. They estimated surface winds of 60kt -- just below hurricane intensity.

Frances is taking on the classic donut look more and more with each passing hour. Outflow is very good in almost all quadrants. Recent images show a wobble back to the west, but that's probably just temporary in the short-term. The eye is well defined and I don't doubt that we may have a borderline cat-4 hurricane here with the next advisory. The appearance reminds me more of Isabel nowadays, but the track isn't the same. Still anywhere from Key West to Virginia needs to watch this one...I'm leaning towards the SC or FL coastline, but that's nothing more than a hunch.

Many, many, many planes will be in Frances tomorrow and the following day. 6-hr fixes at low levels are scheduled starting at 18z tomorrow; another Air Force plane will be in at 0z on the 30th flying at 31k-35k feet; the NOAA9 plane will be in Frances at 43k-45k feet at the same time; the G-IV will be heading around the storm on the 31st at 0z; a WC130 surveillance mission will be in Frances on the 30th at 18z; a P3 mission with SMRF will be heading in on the 30th at 18z; and finally, a buoy deployment mission ahead of the storm will take place on the 30th at 18z (until the 31st at 0z) within 100 miles of 22.5 N and 67 W.

As a researcher into tropical cyclones, I'm excited - nay, giddy - about the possibilities this is going to provide. My focus is on extratropical transition for now, but the amount of data that is going to come out of these missions is astounding. The end of the weekend and start of the week should be fun -- let's see where we're at then in terms of landfall & intensity. Unfortunately, cat 5 is not out of the realm of possibility...sooner rather than later.


SC Bill
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 03:46 PM
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength

Does the recon info give any enlightenment at this point as to track? I am sitting here on the SC GA border, reading local statements, forecasts and advisories and had just decided that I MIGHT see 30 knot gusts at the most. The last NWS Charleston bulletin puts Gaston ashore near "downtown" Charleston Sunday evening at 8:00 pm. Any odds landfall could be further South??

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 03:58 PM
Re: Frances Cat. 4

Seems that Frances is continuing to strengthing, and it also look like Cat. V status isn't out of the question. Still not sure where it's going to hit, but I got a feeling it's going to be another Florida storm, not sure where in Florida though. Hopefully it won't be as strong as it is when it gets here.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:02 PM
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength

Unfortunately, no. All that the recon can do is provide updates on the current intensity and structure of the storm; it's left to forecasters to use their own skill and the available products (models, observations, etc) to make a forecast. It's noteworthy to note that this is the second blown forecast of a storm in this region this year -- the recon's "flight level" was just a few hundred meters, meaning it's very likely we have a high-end tropical storm at 5pm, blowing past the forecasts. It's track is still up in the air.

However, the strength of this storm may well have an impact on the future track of Frances. As Gaston is picked up by the approaching trough to the west and becomes extratropical, a boundary may well be left behind/strengthened by the merging/extratropical transition process. How far south this extends and how long Gaston lingers around will play a role in whether or not it affects Frances. It's yet another kink thrown into the future forecasts of Frances that the NHC - and, well, most of us - did not expect.


StormLover
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:08 PM
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength

Here's something I have been wondering about. If Gaston lingers around longer, could it help keep Frances further south so that it would hit Florida instead of the Carolinas? Also, the longer Gaston lingers before moving away, how might it affect the strength of Frances should it move towards a southeast US landfall?

rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:12 PM
cat 5's are rare.....this is a big August

At the very least, anyone on the Gulf Coast, and from the tip of Florida to Maine, better keep tabs on Frances.

Sure looks Andrew like to be. The eyewall replacement cycle resulted in an eyewall 20 miles wide, increases the size and potential devastation "swath" this thing will bring.

When does the hurricane center ever mention cat 4 possibility...? now, I guess...


cat 5 Mobile, isn't such an outlandish joke anymore


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:14 PM
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength

Hey y'all...just checking in then headin' down to the beach. Great posts all day...didn't have to leave the site to get brought up to date!

Assuming the site stays up, I'll be back for the evening sesh.

Cheers,

LI Phil


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:17 PM
Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run

Quote:

Quote:

That's not a great URL cause it would take it right up Mobile Bay


Let me rephrase it...it is a great link depicting one models view of the possible future. On the bright side, the model seems to indicate a weakening trend by the time it arrives in that area....Can you take the rain?




I think Mobile can take the rain. Rememer Danny a few yrs ago? Stalled for 5 days in Mobile Bay and we got 47 inches of rain. I'll take rain...you can have the hurricane

Southern4sure


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:18 PM
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength

If Gaston where to remain in place for a longer time it might upwell the waters and cause a decrease in water temp, which would make that area un-favorable for Frances to strengthen.
I don't think it would push Frances further south because there is quite an area of water sperating them, If Frances took the current forecast that was said by the NHC.


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:23 PM
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength

We had 31 inches from Danny and can handle the rain really well. The storm surge is anouther story



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:24 PM
Reality Check, Lets not jump the gun...

I just wanted to note that you can look at and speculate data until your blue in the face. We will not have and idea of landfall untill 3 days out.
We have been duped into false tracks before.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

I bet (I love to gamble) that she will cross 58 W before 20 N



meto
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

frances is exploding. she is rapidly intensifying. the eye is in the center of the cdo .....very scary pics. she very well could become the most powerful hurricane in this part of the atlantic. the pressure is now in the 27....im afraid she's a very strong cat. 4 now. a 5 down the road. goes12 has the pics......wow...

rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:27 PM
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength

I'm not even noticing Gaston much. Gaston is just gonna cause a rainy and wet period wherever it goes...unless it stalls out there. If it doesn, rapid building is certainly not out of the question. Gaston has already built to near hurricane strength, and few thought that might happen.

Frances has as good a chance to get to a biggee soon. It will be interesting to see how long Frances can stay at this level. I had heard of a "life-cycle" on the bigger canes, and watching this might make us take a little credence to that theory.

Moving just fast enough, and over open waters...watch what happens if it kicks more west. Then the old theory of "making it's own weather" kicks in. The upper level high it builds strengthens, and it becomes somwhat impervious to anything in its way, except happless land masses....like Mobile, for instance....oh,, well, first Frances will punish MIami with cat 5 gnashing of the teeth.....then loop to Mobile as a docile category 4...or perhaps....graze the keys...and then loop toward New Orleans, and wipe that city out...


this year looks like it might punish the insurance companies...
a real widow-maker


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:32 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

I don't think she'll be the strongest hurricane in that part of the ocean, because then she'll have to beat 888 milibars remember Gilbert? And that would be crazy.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:37 PM
HOLY 5H!+!

Couldn't leave for the beach...damn weather...can't live without it!

This WV loop ought to put the fear of god into every resident on the east coast...While it's only a theory, with some plausible basis in fact, when these storms get this strong, they create their own weather. Look at Frances outflow...blowing the dry air away...holy S--T! I got a feeling that she's gonna blow right thru any ridge that may be in her way and take the path of least resistance right to the coast. Good god this is one strong storm. I don't toss around "CAT V" casually, but if I were a resident of the Bahamas, I'd be on the first plane out of there. For those Bahamians who can't afford to get away, they better add another couple layers of mud to their huts...

I hope no one scorned Frances, cause hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.

Edit: Rick, didn't read your post about "making it's own weather," just saw it now. You thinkin' what I'm thinkin'?


meto
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:38 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up

gilbert did not get that low until it was in central carrib. this is in the atlantic. and it reminds me of gilbert very much.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:39 PM
Re: Cat 4

Cat 4 Hurricane! Frances winds are up

meto
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:43 PM
Re: Cat 4

you can see just how dangerous this hurricane is by the satt photos. it is a classic c.v. hurricane. winds prob near 140

Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:44 PM
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength

Geez Rick can you cool it just a bit. While I can appreciate what your saying, I think most folks would just as soon take a bit more serious approach to Frances about now. A lot happening on the tropical scene almost hourly now and some observations on what is happening and not big time speculation on what coulda mighta happen might be more reasonable.
Hurric

Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:54 PM
Officially a CAT IV

Frances officially a CAT IV, Hurricane watches up for SC with Gaston.

Hurric, that just our Rick...let him go...one of these years a CAT V will end up in Mobile Bay and then we can all look back fondly and say...that sumbitch was RIGHT. Until such time, it's just funny.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 04:56 PM
Re: Officially a CAT IV

Do you know how many days Isabelle maintained cat 5 winds?
I know she didn't "wind down" like exspected.


rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:06 PM
Re: Officially a CAT IV

Course, now that Frances is so strong, look for another eye replacement cycle...at least one or two more, and she will also increase in overall size. Additionally, one might surmise the models don't deal as realistically with a cat 4-5 cane, since they probably don't understand all the data, rare as they are. My gut feel is that the general wnw direction, as I see it heading now...will not vary much. I could be dead wrong, cause I am a real novice. Just remember how "straight" a path GIlbert and Andrew,....the biggies....tended to run.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM
Re: HOLY 5H!+!

Well, the French scorned Frances - they didn't like the name, asking for it to be retired. It was agreed that this would be the last time, and boy is this one going to go out with a bang. The NHC 5-day track is scary, placing it in the central Bahamas as a 125-kt hurricane on a beeline for Miami in 7 or so days.

(FYI: the NHC official track, almost since the beginning, has been following the FSU Superensemble nearly to a T. If I could get on campus to take a look at it right now, I'd expect more of the same.)


Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM
Re: Officially a CAT IV

Phil, You would think he'd be loadin up the boat and headin south to Panama about now instead of playing on the net.
Hurric


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM
Re: Officially a CAT IV

Yo Rick, my good neighbor to the east... as I've said numerous times, this is going to be all about the ridge of high pressure that will be steering this monster... you're gonna need something to make this beast change, weakness in the ridge, front, something... if the ridge holds out to be as stong as most of the models make it out to be, then this thing is not going to pull a Floyd... and Fl is right in its path, maybe down the road the models miss an undetected weakness in the ridge and Frances slips through, and we get the north component, very possible, maybe.. .... another wide card.. Gaston should be well out of the way and if anything might help pump up the ridge reinforcing that wnw track down the road..... eventually its going to turn NW then N, where, is the million dollar question... or perhaps a 40 billion dollar question if this hits as a Cat 4 or 5... and that's still a big IF

Robert
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM
Re: Officially a CAT IV

Well I Crawled away becuse of phil, but i will also crawl back for this storm. Phil I did not major in english so please exuse me if my spelling is not perfect. water temps in the bahamas are 30 - 32 degrees celsius. Lets not forget its 7 days away (7) A lot can happen joe dose not have a clue but he hints @ carolinas. But If it does enter the bahamas it will hit florida and lets not forget 1935 labor day hurricane should things pan out as forcast today 888 and 180-200 mile per hour plus are not a far out possibility.

Robert...I'm not trying to drive you or anyone away...it's just that Mike & John have established a few simple rules. Play by them and you're always welcome to post here. Cheers, LI Phil


rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:23 PM
eyewall

....eyewall seems 50% larger...heading wnw

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:27 PM
Re: eyewall

I agree - the eye has been steadily growing through the day, and taking a more westerly component in movement as far as I can tell by the grid lines.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM
Re: eyewall

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Just incredible.
The storm basically fills in the box.
50-55 and 15-20
What is that 310 square miles?


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM
New Orleans area forcast.... long term

NO area forecast this afternoon.....hmmmm

THE TRACK OF THE VERY STRONG HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AFTER DAY 7...NEXT SATURDAY.

Well Sir Frances has gotten their attention ..... as I'm sure its going to get quite a few of the different area's long term forecast's attention..... you can't rule out the GOM at this time... maybe later in the week, but right now you can't rule out anything...


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:30 PM
Re: Officially a CAT IV

Quote:

another wide card.. Gaston should be well out of the way and if anything might help pump up the ridge reinforcing that wnw track down the road..... eventually its going to turn NW then N, where, is the million dollar question... or perhaps a 40 billion dollar question if this hits as a Cat 4 or 5... and that's still a big IF


The GFS solution http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_p06_l_loop.shtml is starting to look better (or worse depending on where you live, than it did this morning. I think the NHC is starting to think so also as it is now showing a track S of the UKMET which had been almost neck and neck with the official NCH track.

meto
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:35 PM
Re: Officially a CAT IV

this hurricane may create its own enviroment. ive heard this will be a strong ridge. and extend into the souththeast. maybe a degree or 2 north but not much. it could turn north and split middle of fla. wonder what 1935 would have looked like on satt.

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:37 PM
Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term

Quote:

NO area forecast this afternoon.....hmmmm

THE TRACK OF THE VERY STRONG HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AFTER DAY 7...NEXT SATURDAY.

Well Sir Frances has gotten their attention ..... as I'm sure its going to get quite a few of the different area's long term forecast's attention..... you can't rule out the GOM at this time... maybe later in the week, but right now you can't rule out anything...


True enough. The NHC just sent this exerpt: THE NHC RUNNING TRACK ERRORS THROUGH 28/18Z ARE
44...71...AND 104 NMI AT 24-...48-...AND 72-HR...RESPECTIVELY.
THESE ERRORS ARE HALF OUR AVERAGE ERRORS...AND ARE BETTER THAN ALL
OF THE COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THEREFORE
...WE HAVE A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST TRACK...WHICH
REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UKMET MODEL TO
THE NORTH.

which to me says they are now pretty sure of themselves and apparantly taking the GFS pretty seriously as a solution. Maybe it is time I start to 'buy-in' to that myself. I'll admit, I thought the Floyd scenereo was most likely, but I'm now less sure of that....'bout to be convinced otherwised.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:40 PM
Re: Officially a CAT IV

They should give a name to these storms such, like supertyphoons in the western pacific but more like super cyclones. This storm has un-limted potenial right now and is preforming exterme cyclongensis, very interesting. This system could easily break through any ridge, expect the semi-permanent.

It's got a name-Frances. I'm not so sure that the 'retirement' thing wasn't a hoax, as I've not been able to find any backup--James88 is always by the book, so if he posted it, I'll take it as gospel for now. However, we may be retiring Frances for other reasons than the French Government's request.


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:41 PM
Re: HOLY 5H!+!

Quote:

While it's only a theory, with some plausible basis in fact, when these storms get this strong, they create their own weather.



Rick....me thinks we've had this discussion before...remember Charley and the old wives tale thread....I'm still on the old wives tale side of that belief but darned if I can figure *what* path Frances will want to create for itself

meto
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 05:51 PM
Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term

floyd was pulled north by a trof.looked at extended outlook for usa. and it shows dry par tly cloudy for north usa. and isolated showers in se. there arnt any trofs. or cold fronts coming down late next week. this looks to be close to andrew and 1935 hurricane paths when they were going thru the bahamas.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 06:06 PM
Re: Frances is a Monster

This monster looks perfect on the satillite imagery, its beautiful infact. It's amazing that you love seeing a hurricane form, but you switch over to hating it as soon as it heads your way. I hope it doesn't hit in the middle of Florida, not sure if my house will be here anymore. A Cat. V is a unimaginable thing unless you've been in one, which I haven't. Hopefully I won't have to have my experience next weekend.

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 06:13 PM
Re: Frances is a Monster

Quote:

This monster looks perfect on the satillite imagery, its beautiful infact. It's amazing that you love seeing a hurricane form, but you switch over to hating it as soon as it heads your way. I hope it doesn't hit in the middle of Florida, not sure if my house will be here anymore. A Cat. V is a unimaginable thing unless you've been in one, which I haven't. Hopefully I won't have to have my experience next weekend.


I have: Camille. BIloxi and Gulfport Ms were changed forever. It is starting to look like the closer you live to Miami, the worse your chances may be for escaping Frances. It is *way* too early to predict landfall to be sure, but at the moment I'm not seeing any reason to doubt the NHC's path and by extrapolation of the NRL chart showing the forecast wind coverage, S Florida will take the brunt but T.S. winds could include as far north as Orlando. Way too early to worry, but plenty of good reason to restock the batteries and other hurricane essentials.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 PM
The Sun Sets on Frances

As the sun is setting we will catch the last glimspe of Frances on visble imagery. This storm has grew a huge amount, and will continue to grow. In regard to the forecast, I don't think meterologists (mid-latitude) can predict if any cold fronts will be coming down to the se in 7 days, or later so we don't know if it will be a Floyd situation or not. This is a storm of a decade, or maybe a past storm of a century, the future may hold more new storms of this mangitude so be prepared.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 28 2004 06:36 PM
Re: The Sun Sets on Frances

Looking for cold fronts is easy! Go to one of your northern maps of Canada, or the Pacific coming from Alaska. Any fronts that might be available will be coming from there. I am going to go with nogaps. At about 60-65W and approximately 20-22N, there is a swirl of an upper level low. Its located between the new invest and Frances. I think that No Gaps is thinking that this will nudge the cane towards the right, I am going with that notion while I go to the store tomorrow to restock my hurricane supplies. Fortunately I did not need a battery or an extra container of water, but this time, I am not seriously considering no impact if The hurricane were to come inland at Ft Lauderdale, or Vero Beacn, We saw what it did to the opposite side of the state when Charley came in,.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 28 2004 06:47 PM
Re: The Sun Sets on Frances

Interesting day in the tropics. Frances turned IV, Gaston got named and is probably headed for hurricane status tomorrow daytime, and 98L (or whatever it is now) look to be on the way. I wish I could cut and paste all the chaos Bastardi's got up toady. He's touched on everything from a triple pin-wheel solution to a westerly trend in the models to Frances missing the US to the east. There are a lot of options. Great stuff and well worth a 30 day free trial even if you don't renew.

I'm still thinking South Carolina with Gaston (pretty evident). I originally had it going in as a potentially strong tropical storm. Though it could approach hurricane status, my hunch is that it gets up between 55-70mph before landfall. It's also doing a good job of chilling the waters off the Carolinas' coasts which could be key in the future should Frances follow my idea and head for southern North Carolina. TD #8/98L or whatever it is is probably coming west with the ridge but at a farther north lattitude. I can't say if it will make landfall, play fujiwara or become absorbed into a frontal trof and become extratropical. Interesting week ahead. I predict lots of people find ways to steer the storm in their own direction.

Welcome back Robert. And rickonboat, I like your solution as usual. One of these days.../pinkfloyd

TPS


zacros
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 07:08 PM
Gaston and Frances

A few days ago I was sitting in my office, checking the long range radar and noticed a nice little low sitting off of the coast of South Carolina. Also, all of this talk about Frances growing toward hurricane strength rather rapidly. Now, I am sitting in Charleston watching Gaston grow toward hurricane strength and Frances grow toward a CatV. Watching the sun set on Frances was rather ominous as I began to wonder what tomorrow may hold. It will certainly be windy and rainy here. Hopefully, we will escape without to many problems. I also hope that Gaston can upwell enough cold water so that Frances can not do what Hugo did 15 years ago (suddenly boom just before hitting south carolina). Enough cold water on the surface could be the difference between a CatIV or V hitting the coast and Cat II or III hitting. From a pure storm perspective, Frances is a good looking storm. However, I am praying for anyone that may be in her path (including my own family and my sister in Florida).

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 07:10 PM
Recon on Gaston

Last two recon vortex fixes have reported eyes with Gaston, first an open circular eyewall of 40 nmi., now a closed (with few breaks) elliptical eyewall of 38 - 45 nmi. in width along its axes. Estimated extrapolated pressure is down to 994mb, and the eye is beginning to appear on the infrared and visible satellite imagery. A nearby buoy on the west side of the storm reported a 1000mb pressure a couple of hours ago. The storm, sitting over the Gulf Stream, is certainly intensifying, even if it doesn't have a classic look to it on satellite. Max flight-level wind of 60kt was found on the SW side, kind of surprising since that is the weakest side of the storm, but things have probably changed on the E side since recon was in there 2-4 hrs. ago. See no reason to shift the landfall pattern with the storm pretty much on track.

Frances - don't think I need to rehash anything everyone else has said. The next two days will tell us a lot.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 28 2004 07:18 PM
Re: Frances Models

Looks like some of the models are taking Frances a little nudge to the north. A little nudge here might be a great distance by the time it gets closer.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 07:23 PM
Re: Recon on Gaston

I have to wonder what kind of influence the fast westward moving tropical disturbance south of Bermuda will have on Gaston? Appears to be DUI of Gaston more and more. Could make for a flooding heavy rain event over the Carolinas.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 07:24 PM
Re: Recon on Gaston

It does seem that Gaston will reach Cat 1 at least in the short term.... as for Frances I can't add anything that has not already been said except my concerns grow for south FL as time goes on. If "wishcasting" worked I would see some spun fish on this one but it seems this may be close... still time to prepare and for things to change.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 28 2004 07:33 PM
Getting Ready for Frances

There is no time like the present for everyone along the east coast, especially in Florida, to get their preparedness plan ready. I plan on doing all my shopping and preparations for the possibility of this storm tomorrow. We all know it is much harder during the work week to do this. After seeing Charley, I think this storm will cause a huge panic on the entire east coast of Florida come early and mid week. Hopefully, she will turn out to sea and not bother anyone. Our local West Palm Beach tv station showed 2 possibilities. One , she heads west across South Florida because of the high pressure and two she follows a weakness left by Gaston up off the east coast of Florida.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 28 2004 07:41 PM
Re: Getting Ready for Frances

Maybe we can call on the "god" of opposites. IF we all go out and spend too much money on hurricane supplies, get whipped up into sheer panic state, begin evacuations today, and clear out all the gasoline, candles, ice and outdoor cooking equipment, tents, tarps and what have you say, by Tuesday, then and maybe only then Frances will catch a clump of dry air and deflate like a balloon. Just hoping!

k___g
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 28 2004 08:21 PM
Re: Getting Ready for Frances

Having just been through Hurricane Charley <one of the million or so, caught off guard, in the Orlando area>, we have NO desire to go through Hurricane Frances unprepared. Even though Hurricane Frances is at least a week away from any type of landfall in the CONUS, we will be prepared by tomorrow for her arrival...wherever that may be...still a long way off but, not looking good for Florida...

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 PM
NEW THREAD

Mike has put up a new thread...all new responses should be directed there.


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