MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:25 PM |
Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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5PM Update
Hurricane Warnings are up for the Southeastern Bahama islands.
Frances models trended to the right earlier today but went back left later on. And so did the National Hurricane Center's forecast track. The current official track takes it onshore near the space coast midday Saturday. Models still may vary, and I still think we'll have a better idea by tomorrow night. But that's how things stand as of now.
A full update will come later this evening.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Gaston has reformed as it moved off the Virginia and the Delmarva peninsula last night, overland it dumped flooding rains over portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. It's not expected to affect land again.
Hermine has become Extratropical after touching the coast of Massachusetts. There is also a tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic that may spawn Tropical Depression 9 later in the week.
Everyone wants to know about now Category 4 again Frances.
Right now it is passing uncomfortably close to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Radar from San Juan) But it will stay north and only bring moderate winds approaching tropical storm strength to the most extreme northern islands.
But what are the model trends this morning? Back to the right a bit. Will the ridge break down enough for it to recurve to miss Florida or not? Or will it strengthen and push it through into the gulf? The middle ground would put it into Florida along where the Hurricane Center is predicting, but the error at that far out could allow for other scenarios. Not much new today on that front, but the trend to the right again is interesting.
It's still too early to say where it will affect, and how strong it may be when it gets there. If the National Hurricane Center track holds, it isn't good for Florida. But I think it will be adjusted some as the time goes along. We'll know more sometime late Wednesday I believe. Regardless, getting plans together along the coast isn't a bad idea.
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time (new as of 3:30PM today)
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:46 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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So from reading this thread, Frances is going either into the GOM or to the Carolinas??????????????????
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:53 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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Quote:
So from reading this thread, Frances is going either into the GOM or to the Carolinas??????????????????
No those are the extremes, more likely its somewhere in the middle. The key is to see where the trend goes and persistance.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:56 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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That's about right. Which means that unfortunately it looks like someone will feel the full impact of this storm. Based on the trends of the season to date, I would expect a turn before FL and a direct hit on the SC coast.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:58 PM |
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Models
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When do the new models come out?
Should have added to the previous post that though the seasonal trend would suggest SC, I believe it will hit FL. Possibly even entering near Miami and riding up the state moving into GA.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:58 PM |
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Re: Models
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my worst fear.... Miami...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:59 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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Alright, I guess that was a bit gruff, but your feeling seems to be that the track will shift to the right. I don't know about that. The GFS shifted left from 0Z to 6Z. Not a lot, but some, bringing the center dangerously close to the central Florida coast. 12 & 18 Z will be interesting. I have to make some quick decisions based on these runs down here in Palm Bay. Getting a bit antsey
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:01 PM |
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GFS Data Question
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Has anyone heard that there was problems with the GFS data last night ? Doesnt the UKMET, NOGAPS, and possibly the Canadian modell get fed the same data ? I am not a model expert, but have been heariing there was issues with the data input last night at least for the GFS (and of course the models that initialize off that).
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:11 PM |
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Models
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AVN forecasting Frances to take a Floyd path and on Monday has it hitting NC as a strong Cat III; also brings 97L to Ivan by then (this scenario brings minimal hurricane winds to my area on Sunday)
CMC forecasts Cat IV landfall at West Palm Beach
GFDL forecasts a Floyd turn, bringing 50-60 mhp winds to my area on Saturday, and Landfalling Sunday in South Carolina at 110-115 mph
JMA forecasts Cat IV landfall for Miami on Sunday
still forecasts something to break off to the east of Frances and form
UKMET forecasts direct hit on Cape Canaveral as Cat IV on Saturday (the last time that happened was 1926)
of these, 2 turn it north, 2 take it into south Florida, and one takes it over me
as Ive said with other storms, the AVN and GFDL seem to be the most accurate, so I am going to have to keep my turn to the north forecast
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:16 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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I haven't heard that, and frankly if there were init problems, they likely would have been mentioned in the 5am discussion, or in this or this discussion from NCEP/HPC.
Very good quote here which answers some questions from eariler....
"THE BIG QUESTION MARK OF THE PD IS THE TRACK OF HRCN FRANCES AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CONUS THIS PD. THE MODEL HAVE QUITE AN ARRAY OF
SOLNS. THE 00Z GFS...GFDL...AND NCEP MEAN HAVE SHIFTED THEIR
TRACKS MORE TO THE RIGHT...MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS ON DAY
5/SUN TO DAY 6/MON WHILE THE 00Z CAN GLOB AND NOGAPS ALONG WITH
THE 30/12Z ECMWF TAKE THE SYS NWWD ONCE MAKING LANDFALL IN SERN FL
AROUND DAY 4/SAT. THE UKMET HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT
WITH ITS TRACK...BUT IT STILL TAKES FRANCES INTO FL AROUND MLB ON
DAY 4/SAT...WHICH IS THE CLOSEST OP MODEL TO THE NHC TRACK.
WITH MAINLY THE NCEP MODEL MAKING THE BIG TURN AND SENDING THE SYS
INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SEND THE SYS INTO
FL...IT MAKES ONE WONDER IF THE ADDITION OF 46 DROPSONDES TO THE
00Z RUNS OF THE NCEP MODELS MAY BE MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK. OF NOTE HERE...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS BOTH TONIGHT AND
LAST NIGHT MADE A FAIRLY LARGE CHANGE FROM THEIR PREVIOUS 18Z RUNS
AND TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z RUN TOMORROW NITE. ALSO...IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO CAT 3 OR HIER HCNS
TO HIT THE E COAST BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND SAVANNAH IN APPROX THE
PAST 100 YRS. THE MEDR PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
EXTRAPOLATE IT THRU DAY 7"
Notice the forecaster says that the NCEP models got the dropsonde data and the other (non-US) models didn't.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:16 PM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:
AVN forecasting Frances to take a Floyd path and on Monday has it hitting NC as a strong Cat III; also brings 97L to Ivan by then (this scenario brings minimal hurricane winds to my area on Sunday)
that plus the Herbert Box factor..... brace miami, brace
CMC forecasts Cat IV landfall at West Palm Beach
GFDL forecasts a Floyd turn, bringing 50-60 mhp winds to my area on Saturday, and Landfalling Sunday in South Carolina at 110-115 mph
JMA forecasts Cat IV landfall for Miami on Sunday
still forecasts something to break off to the east of Frances and form
UKMET forecasts direct hit on Cape Canaveral as Cat IV on Saturday (the last time that happened was 1926)
of these, 2 turn it north, 2 take it into south Florida, and one takes it over me
as Ive said with other storms, the AVN and GFDL seem to be the most accurate, so I am going to have to keep my turn to the north forecast
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:20 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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so the model with the biggest turn is the one with the latest data?
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:24 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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It seems to me that for time being extrapolation points will give you a better run than the models at least in the short term(12>18hrs).She seems to be on a basic W movement just a few degrees N not much.
as of 13:45 @20.1N and 64.0W still S of models see how the ULL out front of Frances impacts her movement.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:25 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Thanks Jason, its just some meteorolgists in SE Florida are saying their may have been issues. It will be interesting to see if those models trend to the left again in the 12z and 18z runs., like they did yesterday.
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:29 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Quote:
Thanks Jason, its just some meteorolgists in SE Florida are saying their may have been issues. It will be interesting to see if those models trend to the left again in the 12z and 18z runs., like they did yesterday.
ULL discussion for Miami NWS. Its moving to the west folks.
SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004
.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE
FL COAST SW THROUGH EAST CNTRL FL...ACROSS LAKE OKEE AND INTO THE SW
GULF...ALBEIT SUBTLE...WITH 88D AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG IT OFF THE NE FL AND SW FL COASTS. AT THE
UPR LVLS...MOST PROMINENT FEATURE IS UPR LVL LOW ACROSS THE NW
BAHAMAS WHICH CONTINUE TO TRACKS WEST. 12Z SNDG PWAT...WHICH IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY GPSMET RETRIEVALS IS RUNNING AROUND 1.9 TO 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING. THIS IS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LAYER WEST OF THE UPR LOW ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS
BEEN DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING. WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SE AROUND 5
KNOTS PER 12Z SNDG...AND UPR LVL FEATURE TRACKING WEST...LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE INTERIOR FOR TODAY
AND JUST INLAND OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST. THIS GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN THE FCST SO PLAN NO CHANGES. 12Z CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CAME UP WITH A CAPE OF 4180..MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON INLAND HIGHS OF
AROUND 92...LI OF -8...AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF AROUND 24. SO TODAY
STORMS HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO BEING STRONGER
THAN USUAL WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL...PARTICULARLY INLAND.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:31 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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What does that all mean?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:34 PM |
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JBs call
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JB is still sticking to his guns for a NC hit...that's great news for Floridians if it pans out. Last week, before this was a TD even, I said "I smell Hattaras." I just get a feeling for these long-tracking CV storms.
Let's see what NHC says at 11:00 (may even be out already). More later.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:36 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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That's interesting, Jason. Why would only one model get the data input and not the others? It would seem the other way around. Of course, I don't work for NHC so I don't know how that works. Obviously.
So, if all the other models get this data and they all begin turning it to the right, I guess we could see a light at the end of the Florida tunnel. OR if the models get the data and still keep it on its current track, we can keep on preparing ourselves for a intense storm. Which we should be doing anyway.
One more question: will that stationary front in the SE have anything to do with Frances' path? Just curious.
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:37 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Quote:
What does that all mean?
There has ben some thought that the ULL if it persists it could drive the storm more to the N but if it moves out that feature will have little to no effect on the track. Bottom line is florida is going to need a weakness between the two highs to avoid landfall and that looks unlikely to me. west palm to jacksonville until further notice
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:41 PM |
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Re: Models
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To help those of us (ok… me) who have a hard time visualizing the forecast path, I have created the following image based on HPC 7 day loop: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
Assumptions
1) Frances remains current size/strength
2) Wind envelope(s) based on NHC Advisory 26A
I can re-create these images any time for use here and remain open to suggestions and guidance.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:43 PM |
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Re: JBs call
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I said that this one would hit the outer banks area too, my techinque is called persitence and climatololgy one of these days your bound to be right. I use stuff like that for long range tracking hurricanes because there is no way that you can predict how things are going to shape out in the upper air features 10-11 days in advance. Raining pretty hard here had a wind gust up to 35 mph, big whoop!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:45 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Quote:
so the model with the biggest turn is the one with the latest data?
Not exactly...the 00z run of the GFS, with the dropsondes, was further west....the 00Z Eta, with the dropsondes, was much further s and west. The 06z GFS (with the newsst data) is further west and south than the 00z run. The 06z Eta (again, with the newest data) trended back north a bit, but is still a far left track. This mornings Eta (which is only in to 54hrs as I write this, and contains last nights sondes,which are now 12 hrs old) is a little more north and east, but not nearly as much as the GFS. No 12z GFS to look at yet.
So we are seeing pretty good swings in model solutions...making any forecast a low-confidence one at this point.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:46 PM |
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11am track
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So based on this track from the 11am Advisory they are looking for it to skim up the east coast of FL now and remain offshore, until it gets to the FL/GA border and then make landfall perhaps.
Nice graphic there skeetobite, how did you create it?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:47 PM |
Re: Track shift
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Now goes to Jax area at 1100. Stay tuned, it'll change again!
sc
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:47 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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The lastest 11 AM is in the track has been nudged a little to the right and north..
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:49 PM |
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Re: JBs call
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JB is obviously picking up on the data we received that the NCEP may have information others don't...any way I think we all agreed that Wednesday's models will be the tale...I am impressed so far this year with the NHC's 72 hour fixes, unlike a couple of years ago when anything else did happen.
In response to DEE of Bradenton...IF the NHC 5 day were to hold, and that is what this discussion is all about, then in Bradenton/ Parrish we should get only the W and SW quardrant and then " only " tropical force winds I would suspect.
If it did a Donna trac and similar intensity...again NW abd W side, but probably hurricane CATI to II force for about 30-60 minutes., depending on where it would enter the coast.
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:49 PM |
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Re: Models
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ive seen some models suggest a jax landfall allthough in the past 24 hrs they change but still some are suggesting it.Being in jax Im extremely concerned,we havent had a hit here since dora in 64 and ever since floyd and now charley our forcasters here anyway are real reluctant to say anyting,i have a bad feeling abut this one,seems to me with every update the cone comes a little more N,my fear is everyone in this general area will not be concerned and we could very well see a charley play out here
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:49 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Yes, it has...although I haven't read the disco yet, that means that they are banking on the GFS/GFDL combo...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:50 PM |
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NHC 5 day
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Track more northerly...looks like FL/SC border:
5 Day Track
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:51 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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yep, some are talking bout floyd and this one, there are big diffrences, this one is much farther sourh, going west, and there is no trof, as there was with floyd. looks to be getting even stronger. 145+ today.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:52 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Morning Jason,
Good to see you on again.
Please feel free to give your input.
This looks bad for the central part of the state
History would predict a N. turn but also many historic storms have crossed the state. In the last 50 years, most have curved up to the NC area however.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:53 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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based on the models what is turning it north a weakening in the High? pardon my ignorance.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:55 PM |
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Re: NHC 5 day
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Florida - Georgia right?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:57 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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There is a trough actually in the northeast, that's suppose to work it's magic on Frances and pull it up north, but there could be some change to that as the approaching high will weaken it to some degree.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:57 PM |
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Re: Models
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It would be cool if you could update this based on the 11AM NHC forecast track.
Thanks!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:59 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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South Florida has a pretty good chance of missing this. This thing is going to Georgia or South Carolina.
Tomorrow will tell the tale, though. If this thing doesn't start going "officially" WNW by tomorrow night, Florida is going to be back on the hotseat. But, if it is, most of Florida will be pretty safe.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:59 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Glad to see this site is still going strong! Storm2k is jammed up. Not many crazy people hyping everything up here as well. Thanks everyone.
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:59 PM |
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Re: NHC 5 day
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thats what im seeing,ive had a gut feeling about this,and thats all it is im not an expert by any means,even though its obvious where they are now putting it cant help but have that voice in the back of my head saying its not gonna hit us,i do know thats a good way of thinking,we are so overdue to be hit up here
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:00 PM |
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Re: NHC 5 day
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Ths is actually stil not a good scenarion because it would run the coast from Cape Canaveral to JAx at around 30 miles East of the shoreline. Tremendous flooding, storm sure and wind damage if ths pans out
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:00 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Shawn what are you basing this on?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:01 PM |
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Wind Swath Graphic
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This is actually pretty cool. It takes all of NHC wind swath graphics and loops them (from Hurricanetrack.com - great little site BTW).
Wind Swath Graphic Loop
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:01 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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What a nightmare for the folks at the NHC. I wouldn't want to be a forecaster along ANY part of land that has WATER next to it. I sure hope they pay them well.
If I were to think like I always think, the NHC discussion this morning may say something like: "will wait and see what the next set of model runs do before changing the official track" or something like that.
Or not.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:01 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Gees meto, lol your soo funny. Over last 2 years on here I see you always post storms are going to your house and making it a cat 5. Believe me if you ever get 1 more then a cat 1 you wont want 1 again. Does make me laugh though.
With Frances, yes they are going as of 11am post the current GFDL and GFS runs but even those models will change. Key is now curent movement over the next 12 hours, If a wnw path dont start later today then the models might move ever so closer to the w. Then again we all still dont know the strength or pos extention of the ridge to its north 2-3 days out and timing of the next trough or strength. I dont think the next trough right now will get to the central gulf until Sat so S florida still needs to keep a eye on this.
scottsvb
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:02 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Looks like the track will continue to move to the right. Here you go Carolinas!! At least it shouldn't be as strong when it gets there. If it continues to the right we may get out of the windfield here in east central Florida. Looks like JB may have this one nailed. Whew!!
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:04 PM |
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Herberts Box?
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Looks like the Herberts box rule will not apply with this storm. One thing i did notice about the graphic yesterday was that two other historic storm tracks were shown going through the box, but Frances entered it with a much higher latitude, i think this might have made a difference.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:06 PM |
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JB
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>>> Looks like JB may have this one nailed. Whew!!
First of all. No one knows for sure where this one is going, so that "Whew!!" is way too premature.
Second of all, there are a good number of posters on this board who do not live in Florida, so if you guys hopefully avoid a direct hit, someone north is going to take it.
This is a very dangerous storm and everyone needs to keep up their guard!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:07 PM |
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Re: NHC 5 day
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40% Data + 15% Trends + 45% Gut Feeling = Projected Path for Hurricane Frances
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:10 PM |
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Re: Herberts Box?
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What type of role will the ULL in the Bahamsa play with this storm ?
Would it surpise any of you to see the track flip flop again back to the west ?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:11 PM |
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Re: NHC 5 day
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I live in Miami... as of the 11 am advisory the blasted thing still going due west.. waiting for that big turn .. hope it makes it for our sake... although i think the carolinas have seen their share.
| rjp |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:12 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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Everyone here in Charleston is trying to get their roofs fixed and things cleaned up now that Gaston has passed and Frances possibly threatening. Things won't be pretty if this storm heads in anywhere close and/or to the south of here.
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:13 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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I'm in Charleston too, RJP. Yes, we have received a foot of rain from Gaston by taking a direct hit, the roots of trees are so saturated that they were blowing over in 40 mph gusts.
It would absolutely be devestating.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:16 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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I have noticed a signifigant shift offshore and to the north with Frances, which is no longer forecast to come ashore in Florida. I assume that this means that it is increasingly likely that the system WILL turn north like Floyd
Remember that the five day forecasts are mirroring Floyd's three day tracks
| Cane Watcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:17 PM |
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Re: JB
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I agree with Phil. Lets wait until Wed. before we have a party in Fl. As quickly as the track shifted north, it can shift back south and put So. / Cent. Fl under the gun again.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:18 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Quote:Yes Colleen, I think they are seeing NOTHING to change their minds about what is likely so until they do, and with 3-4 days left before landfall is likely, they are waiting for 'better signals'.
What a nightmare for the folks at the NHC. I wouldn't want to be a forecaster along ANY part of land that has WATER next to it. I sure hope they pay them well.
If I were to think like I always think, the NHC discussion this morning may say something like: "will wait and see what the next set of model runs do before changing the official track" or something like that.
Or not.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:21 PM |
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Re: JB
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there has been a trend over the last day for the track to shift north with each advisory
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:23 PM |
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Reminder!!!
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I hate to remind all of ya'll in Florida of Andrew but I think now would be a perfect time to do so. If you remember Andrew was predicted to stay completely away from Florida but at the last minute he made a hard left and barreled right at ya'll. My point is that, like some have already stated, just because the models are saying a more northerly track doesn't mean it is etched in stone. Not only that, these models are not agreeing with each other too well right now so that is a BIG problem. Even if Frances does start to take a more WNW or even NW track later, it doesn't mean it will continue it. Bottom line, PLEASE STAY ALERT!!! ALL OF YOU!!!!
ShawnS
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:25 PM |
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Re: JB
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Remember, like Phil said, one shift to the left or right does not make it a "trend". Of course the closer the storm gets to landfall the more validity those shifts have, but 4-5 days out is still a long time. I did notice the leading edges of swell from Frances showing up on the outer Canaveral buoy this morning. As of 11am it was reading 3.0ft@12.9 seconds. This storm has continued to move a little faster than I thought it would, as I didn't see any swell showing up until sometime Wednesday. Also, this morning was the first I had heard any of the local weather guys in central Florida mention the slowing of Frances and a turn to the north, bringing it parallel to the coast, but not making a direct hit. Like I said before it's still way too early to tell that for sure, but was interesting to hear someone other than members on this board mention it. And Phil I have some good friends out on LI so I too hope they're safe.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:27 PM |
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Re: Reminder!!!
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Quote:
I hate to remind all of ya'll in Florida of Andrew but I think now would be a perfect time to do so. If you remember Andrew was predicted to stay completely away from Florida but at the last minute he made a hard left and barreled right at ya'll. My point is that, like some have already stated, just because the models are saying a more northerly track doesn't mean it is etched in stone. Not only that, these models are not agreeing with each other too well right now so that is a BIG problem. Even if Frances does start to take a more WNW or even NW track later, it doesn't mean it will continue it. Bottom line, PLEASE STAY ALERT!!! ALL OF YOU!!!!
ShawnS
THIS IS THE MOST INTELLIGENT THING SAID ON THIS BOARD FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:28 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Went to the store here in Tampa and everything is going as normal. I talked to the manager at HD and he said there is no high demand for items like there was with charely and business as usual. Went to grocery store and was normal.
People in general in florida are just watching to see if this really has a chance of coming. We all know the Floyd type storms that come close and brush the Bahamas then head up and threaten and even just hitting the outerbanks and out to sea scaring NE. Andrew was diff, there was no doubt it was coming but where was the issue and how strong. Overall most wont hit the stores till Thurs on east coast and late in the day w coast or Friday if track bends back to the left. Right now we just dont know for sure what path it will take. There is no strong trough to affect her till later this weekend and the reason it will start going wnw is the ridge strength and position. Im sticking with around 21N and 70W tomorrow afternoon and near WPB Friday evening. Models will change and the nhc path will adjust with each 6hr run. There is no worries yet on Frances unless you live in the Bahamas and florida if any until later weds. We all say 12z run on Thurs will nail down landfall within 100miles instead of the current 700.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:28 PM |
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Re: Reminder!!!
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It is now time to sit and wait to see if the gradual turns begins to materialize within the next 24 hours. When this turn begins could have a HUGE bearing on where landfall will occur due the proximity of the path. South Florida is now just barely within the three day cone of error. All of Florida , ga and SC are in the five day cone of error. I would suggest that foks in South Florida not let their guard down just yet.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:28 PM |
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Re: JB
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No, there hasn't.
There was a shift SOUTH yesterday afternoon at the 5pm, then an extension of the previous at 11pm, followed by what can be argued as a shift n at 5, and now a real shift N at 11A...but to say that over the last day there is a northward trend with each advisory is plain wrong.
Rabbit, you may end up being right about the eventual track...but don't make stuff up to try and prove it!
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:30 PM |
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Re: JB
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I agree with who posted that Wednesday or Thursday will be the day that Frances direction will bein position with the models. This is just my opinion. Now approaching the area of PR. I think everyone from Maine to Mexico need to stay alert of this hurricane.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:36 PM |
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Re: JB
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Frances track
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:38 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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your funny, im pointing out diffrences and this a strong cat. 4
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:39 PM |
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eye wall
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The eye is starting to take a nice round shape, and we will see a borderline cat 5 soon...
direction is Miami, then onto Mobile...
there is no trend north yet. If and when the hurricane slows down a little, then and only then will a definite shift in the direction occur.
Silly to even think about the models. they are all different, and NO ONE knows what this will do..
I will go with my gut feel...
Miami, and a cat 4-5 at landfall, then into the gulf for more hankey pankey....
RICK! We have a serious situation here. It's not funny anymore! Please don't make me start editing...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:41 PM |
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Re: eye wall
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just remember Floyd didnt turn until early morning on the 14th of Sep 1999
Frances is still 4 days out before it nears Florida
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:43 PM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:
It would be cool if you could update this based on the 11AM NHC forecast track.
Thanks!
Done!
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:44 PM |
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Re: JB
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Forgot to post this with my reply. A good site for checking out troughs, ridges, etc.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:45 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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Rabbit...two things:
(1) Florida is NOT out of the woods at all. If you look at the "projected path" Florida is most certainly under the gun whether you go to the left or the right of the cone. The NHC is not saying anything close to what you're stating.
2) Your statement that the path has been consistently shifting to the north with each run is incorrect. Yesterday it shifted north in the morning, at 5pm it was back south again, then it was about the same at 11pm. At 5:00am this morning it was still to the left, and at 11am today it shifted right. There's no trend to the north in any of those tracks. The only ABSOLUTE thing you can say is that the path has had Florida under the gun since we started getting closer to the US.
There's no evidence yet of a turn to N, or even the WNW. I just watched News Channel 8 and the met wasn't all that excited about the new track, which tells me no one really has a lot of confidence in the models---which are all over the place with this one-- at this point in time. I'd like to say he's really bored by this hurricane but I don't think that's the reason he's not putting a lot of emphasis on it.
When you write stuff, try to be accurate. People new to this board may look at just one or two posts and think that they are either going to get whacked or they're in the clear. A good rule of thumb when saying "we're in the clear" is this:
UNTIL IT PASSES YOUR LAT/LON POSITION, YOU ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:46 PM |
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Re: JB
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ok GFS slowly starting to come in. Will analize the plots for this over next 30 min. Funny how to start already, just 12hours out or say really 8hours this has Frances at 21n almost.
I think its about .5 above from where it should be.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:46 PM |
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Re: JB
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Sigh, I reluctantly agree Jason, but sure want to be hopeful about a Floyd-like "miss". We are just so stressed out here from Charley aftermath. That said, I guess I will go back to boarding up. I am directly on Intercoastal Waterway and can see condos on beach from my front yard. So we will be in Evac zone if needed-hence my hurry to finish. Got the east side done. Working on north now.
My Lowe's was totally sold out of many items last night and there was a long line for 15 generators on a truck. People here are definitely in prep mode. I wanted Plylox clips but they were long gone.
Maybe I will lose some weight out of all this!
Tom- Ormond Beach/Volusia County
| StormLover |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:49 PM |
Re: eye wall
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I totally agree. I see no northward trend at all looking at any radar loops. My gut tells me that Frances will hit between central and south Florida as a strong Category 4. I think the ridge of high pressure currently over the Atantic will keep it well to the south of Georgia or the Carolinas.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:50 PM |
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Re: eye wall
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while i am not going to say where landfall will be it is moving due west this morning. if it doesn't start the northern turn soon models or not it is gonna come toward fla. even if landfall is in the s/c n/c area if it gets close enough to the coast of fla. before the north turn its effects will be felt. so all that think fla is outta of the woods on this one, don't bet the farm yet.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:50 PM |
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Re: JB
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Re: Frances' track: stop looking at the
symbol and start looking at the cone. Now you tell me what that tells you.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:50 PM |
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Re: flight paths
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here is where most of the gps drops were taking yesterday, and i guess the models are picking up on weaking ridge
noaa plane is staying in Barbados, due to St. Croix too close to storm
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:52 PM |
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Re: JB
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GFS 24 hrs out now or say 20 hours it has Frances near 22N and 70W . Hmm 2 deg north in 20 hours? This wnw track better start in next 6 hours or less.This comes out to about .5 per 6 hours now on the first 24 hour run.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:54 PM |
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Re: Models
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Thanks SkeetoBite:
This should tell all of us that even if the storm was to follow this path we will need to implement Plan B and board up ; many communities will feel hurricane and trpoical storm winds all over the Florida east coast.
But this is only a point based on a calculation. Tomorrow evening we will know where the storm is truly going because of the narrowed dreaded cone of fear..
.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:54 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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I am not basing my forecast entirely on the NHC model, and the model shift is not necessarily based solely on the official forecast, but the fact that most of the models have been shifting east slightly with each run
I have been tracking since Andrew, and am well aware that you are still in the threat area if it is not north of you, but I am making forecasts that I feel confident in, and I am still confident that it will turn north before getting here. Everyone needs to remember that these are the 5-day forecasts we are seeing, and that the NHC admits that there are extremely large errors involved. Also, as for it not turning north yet, remember Bonnie and Isabel--they both headed due west towards Florida, and turned north rather quickly
My guess is 30-60 miles offshore, moving in a NW to NNW direction by Saturday
I am well aware that the track could shift to the west again, but it could also shift further east.
As for preparedness, I have an emergency hurricane kit that is always stocked with the supplies needed. The only preparing at the moment is to have the supplies that are good to have at the beginning of the season.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:54 PM |
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Re: eye wall
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Frances might be starting her northward turn. On the sat loops she appears to be moving just north of west in the last half of the loop. This may just be stair stepping, but it might be a new trend
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:57 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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Frances forecast track with wind
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:58 PM |
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Re: eye wall
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Quote:
Frances might be starting her northward turn. On the sat loops she appears to be moving just north of west in the last half of the loop. This may just be stair stepping, but it might be a new trend
Looks like stair stepping to me .
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:59 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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Quote:
Went to the store here in Tampa and everything is going as normal. I talked to the manager at HD and he said there is no high demand for items like there was with charely and business as usual. Went to grocery store and was normal.
People in general in florida are just watching to see if this really has a chance of coming. We all know the Floyd type storms that come close and brush the Bahamas then head up and threaten and even just hitting the outerbanks and out to sea scaring NE. Andrew was diff, there was no doubt it was coming but where was the issue and how strong. Overall most wont hit the stores till Thurs on east coast and late in the day w coast or Friday if track bends back to the left. Right now we just dont know for sure what path it will take. There is no strong trough to affect her till later this weekend and the reason it will start going wnw is the ridge strength and position. Im sticking with around 21N and 70W tomorrow afternoon and near WPB Friday evening. Models will change and the nhc path will adjust with each 6hr run. There is no worries yet on Frances unless you live in the Bahamas and florida if any until later weds. We all say 12z run on Thurs will nail down landfall within 100miles instead of the current 700.
I must disagree with you, Scott. People in Central and Eastern Florida are taking this storm VERY seriously. I was out last night (Orlando), and there were long lines everywhere. After Charley, everyone here is preparing early. Those that work on the east coast say there is even more preparation going on over there. I think mainly due to the fresh memories of Charly, Florida is taking a more proactive approach than I've seen in my 30+ years here.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:01 PM |
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Re: eye wall
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Lisa there will be wobbles to the wnw but a new path will show on a 3 hour trend. By 2-3pm (eastern) we will see if it still is. Generally its been going just N or due west near 275-280dg since Sunday.
48hour GFS has it running up the bahamas NW near 23.5-73.5. This could happen but I think its still just alittle NE by 50-100 miles.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:02 PM |
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
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Well, for all of our sakes, I truly hope your forecast comes to fruition. I really do.
But you have to be consistent with what you're saying: before you said that with each track it has been moving consistently north, and as Jason pointed out, that is simply not the case. I remember Isabel and Bonnie and Floyd, but the NHC had started saying LONG BEFORE that Floyd WOULD make that turn, we just didn't believe them until it actually did. I don't see a single mention of a definite turn to the the WNW in any of their discussions lately. If anything, they're more than likely pulling their hair out with these models runs differing every six hours.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:03 PM |
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Re: eye wall
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Thats nice storm if they are doing it there. Talked to buddie and brother in s florida, they are watching but stores they say are also normal.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:03 PM |
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Stair Stepping
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I'm not so sure that it is stair stepping. You could be right, but it could be just the changing of the eyewall structure. I know she has been doing that quite a bit.
ShawnS
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:05 PM |
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Rabbit Season & Wishcasting
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Rabbit seems to be taking it on the chin...we'll see how everything plays out.
It seems like some folks (names withheld to protect the guilty) who live in the Gulf region seem to want this storm to come their way, despite what is becoming more and more evident. The northward turn. That's fine, but this is NOT a gulf storm. Don't wishcast it there. You may have a bunch of mischief of the homebrew type soon enough.
The "dreaded" cone. LOL.
NHC is doing a fantastic job with this storm, as they really have all year (with the exception of underforecasting Charley, but CFHC got it right!). Stay prepared everyone...gonna be a dicey next five days that's for sure.
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:06 PM |
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Re: JB
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Quote:
GFS 24 hrs out now or say 20 hours it has Frances near 22N and 70W . Hmm 2 deg north in 20 hours? This wnw track better start in next 6 hours or less.This comes out to about .5 per 6 hours now on the first 24 hour run.
take a look at wxrisk.com. DT thinks the gfs is full of you know what.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:07 PM |
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Re: eye wall
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its moving west.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:08 PM |
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Re: GFS Data Question
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I'm new to this board - but I know that shopping in the greater Osceola county area is daunting to say the least - - Wally world is already out of gallon water, canned Propane and dry food stuffs. Once burned and twice shy - people are taking this very seriously.
I do have one simple question - people are talking about a weakening of the tropical H pressure ridge off the carolina coast - where is this data coming from - - I look and look but I do not see??
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:08 PM |
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On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees
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Looking at the PR radar loop, Frances is not going due west but in a general north of due west motion... my best guess is 280 degrees, give or take a couple... this minor northerly component is very evident on the radar loop and IR loop and is basically on track with the projections for now at this present location... it SHOULD be taking a more WNW track later this evening or early tomorrow morning and something that should be monitored closely to see if this comes to fruition and IF the models have any real clue as to what is going to happen down the road... I do feel the track will shift more south within the next day or two, not sure how much though.... going to be a tough call regardless....
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:11 PM |
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Re: eye wall
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Quote:
Lisa there will be wobbles to the wnw but a new path will show on a 3 hour trend. By 2-3pm (eastern) we will see if it still is. Generally its been going just N or due west near 275-280dg since Sunday.
48hour GFS has it running up the bahamas NW near 23.5-73.5. This could happen but I think its still just alittle NE by 50-100 miles.
absolutely..there is no feature to turn it that quickly per the gfs and we are at a point where 50-100 miles makes all the difference in the world on effects for the EC of Florida and beyond. take a look at the euro people...it has shown great consistency and is on track..dont know bout its gulf solution but i sure think its south bias is worht looking at. rememebr also gfdl uses some gfs data sowhen when gfs flips gfdl usually will too..nhc is really pinning their hopes on these two models. nhc is a very difficult position here as sofla is right on the edge of getting significant weahter based on THEIR track.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:13 PM |
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Re: JB
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Scott: that is really nothing new...the GFDL 6Z has it at 21.9/70.5 and the wnw moves start almost immediately...from a ratio of 1/7 to 1/3...
Of course IF that does not occur, everything shifs left again...hence the NHC is catious here.
HOWEVER the GFDL was very accurate about 60-72 hrs out on Charley hence they NHC's trend to look closely at the GFS/GFDL for guidance.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:14 PM |
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Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees
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Nice post Frank and your right.
GFS 72hr out has her near 25N and 75W. I also want to note that the 200mb trough is further back over the western gulf and southern mexico which would argue for more of a ridge to its ENE. Hmm
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:20 PM |
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Re: Rabbit Season & Wishcasting
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I think everyone in Florida is a little on edge therefore we (I) tend to point out what have been the facts. There hasn't been a turn yet (although hopefully it is beginning) therefore, I will hold steadfastedly to what I can see and what I read as facts. I no longer am in the business of "wishcasting" since Charley. I'm like Fox, they report, you decide. Rabbits are well known prey of foxes.
As for the Mobile hit comments, I'd leave them up. Since the person has been saying that, Mobile's been spared a major hit. I think we should give a round of applause.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:21 PM |
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recon
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URNT11 KNHC 311604
97779 16004 30224 71500 73200 15013 68//1 /5764
AF306 0906A FRANCES OB 06
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:21 PM |
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Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees
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your right doug but first off let me say to all that these models will shift around still with each run. With this GFS run Im stating the positions and looking at the overall picture. The gfdl also made earl a cat 2-3 at 1 time too but we all know that was a error. With Charley it did ok but most models were in somewhat agreement and at the end only 1 or 2 were right with the landfall. I in general go with the GFS and lean towards the Nogaps.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:22 PM |
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Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees
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It must be the Herbert Box Paradox; what the models are now plotting does not conform to the Herbert Box theory that any storm that passes below 20degreees N/ 60 degrees W would invariably affect southern Florida.
It's "Hebert" not Herbert. Pronounced ay-berh
:?:
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:24 PM |
Re: GFS Data Question
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I'm glad everything is normal in Tampa. I can't say the same for Vero Beach, Sebastian, and Ft. Pierce. I spoke to my family down in Vero today. Pretty much all of the bottled water is gone already. People are stocking up and gearing up there.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:26 PM |
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Re: recon
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000
URNT11 KWBC 311558
97779 15584 30162 62800 55100 16010 55632 /4584
RMK NOAA3 1106A FRANCES OB 03 KWBC
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:27 PM |
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Re: Rabbit Season & Wishcasting
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Rabbit stew in a few days. Frances is still heading mostly west, and the posts have been excellent. We all keep thinking "..in just a few hours more I will know where this is heading..."...yet we all know they are dynamic entities, subject to sudden changes. The Ridge is looking to be further west than forecast, and that is why I am looking for a westerly trend. we will see.
...so again...cat 5 Miami, then Mobile bound...
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:28 PM |
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Re: recon
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Thanks for posting this but perhaps a little interpretation concerning this data would be meaningful to the viewers.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:29 PM |
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Re: recon
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Not to ruin your wonderful analysis or the suspense of your findings but it looks like the GFS may have nudge left again..
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:31 PM |
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Re: Rabbit Season & Wishcasting
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I'll gladly eat crow with my Hattaras call, because after Hattaras, it's up towards LI & NE. No thank you. I hate to say this, but I've been calling this one for a week, and I see less reason to change. So Rabbit's on board with me. Going to be a ride...all you in Florida don't let your guard down for one minute.
And Rick, it's getting tiresome, OK?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:31 PM |
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Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees
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12Z of the Nogaps is out and it shows a path thru the bahamas and into WPB (area) and across the state around 310dg near Tampa. This is consistant with the past run.
96hour GFS is 100 miles east of WPB near Freeport BAH and moving NW. ( note also again at the start of this that by 8pm eastern tonight it has Frances near 22N already, if this is already initialized as a early jump before its real movement, the placement of the hurricane might be 50-75 miles more sw of where the plots are) This might be then in agreement with the Nogaps position 96hrs out just offshore of WPB. 1 more update to come. scottsvb
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:34 PM |
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Re: Rabbit Season & Wishcasting
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I'm calling Georgia / South Carolina border.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:34 PM |
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Hebert
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"what the models are now plotting does not conform to the Herbert Box theory that any storm that passes below 20degreees N/ 60 degrees W would invariably affect southern Florida."
Hebert's theory - or whatever it's called - did NOT say that any storm in the box (which I believe is bordered by 15 & 20 N, and 55 & 60 W) would "invariably" (inevitably?) affect South Florida. Instead, Hebert noted that most intense hurricanes that affect South Florida and come from the east have passed in or near that box. However, the converse is NOT true; in other words, most storms that pass through that box do NOT affect South Florida. Thus, statistically speaking, although a storm going in the area of that box is more likely to affect S. Fla. than one that doesn't go through that box, it does not come close to being a guarantee. -Brad
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:37 PM |
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Clark - FSU Superensemble?
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Clark or anyone else with the info:
Anybody know what the FSU Superensemble is showing today? Any change from yesterday afternoon's S.Fla. forecast? Thanks.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:40 PM |
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Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees
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GFS 120 showing it just offshore Daytona beach by 20 miles (about) and parreling the coast of florida. For what its worth the CMC has her going up the bahama chain and staying well off the coast of florida, this model (though not out of the question) usually doesnt handle movement of tropcial systems that well as seen in the last many runs. It has been all over the place. Just waiting on the Ukmet run to figure out the whole package, will post later.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:41 PM |
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Re: recon
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Hopefully this will help:
000
URNT12 KNHC 311114
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1114Z
B. 19 DEG 56 MIN N
63 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2649 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 105 DEG 138 KT
G. 023 DEG 21 NM
H. 950 MB
I. 11 C/ 3092 M
J. 19 C/ 3088 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 0806A FRANCES OB 27
MAX FL WIND 138 KT N QUAD 1107Z. SMALL HAIL OUTBOUND SOUTHWEST
EYEWALL.
Here's how to read it:
Bulletin Identifier
A. Date and time of fix
B. Latitude of the vortex fix in degrees and minutes
Longitude of the vortex fix in degrees and minutes
C. Minimum height of a standard pressure level, given in meters
D. Estimate of maximum surface wind observed in knots
E. Bearing and range from center of the maximum surface wind
F. Maximum flight level wind near storm center
G. Bearing and range from center of maximum flight level wind
H. Minimum sea level pressure computed from dropsonde or extrapolation
I. Maximum flight level temperature in Celsius / Pressure altitude in meters, OUTSIDE the eye
J. Maximum flight level temperature in Celsius / Pressure altitude in meters, INSIDE the eye
K. Dewpoint temperature in Celsius / Sea surface temperature in Celsius inside the eye
L. Eye character
M. Eye shape orientation and diameter
N. Fix determined by / fix level
O. Navigation fix accuracy in nm / Meteorological accuracy in nm
P. Remarks Section
That's probably the most productive thing I've done today.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:41 PM |
|
|
|
Northward motion
|
No wobbles in this satellite image. Still moving west, but there is now a northern component.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:43 PM |
|
|
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Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees
|
WV loop
note the general WNW movement and the upper low to the west
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:44 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hebert
|
With that said, Frances will inevitably impact the weather for the entire state one way or the other.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:44 PM |
|
Re: Clark - FSU Superensemble?
|
AAAKKK! GFS has Her sitting over Grand Bahama island for like 18 hours, then moves her WNW towards Melbourne but leaves her right on the coastline then moves her slowwwwwly up the coast (on the coast) Finally coming in at JAX. I recant my previous statement and apologize. This is not justification for a right shift of the track. Slightly left again I think if NHC uses the GFS. NEXT RUN PLEASE!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Northward motion
|
What's weird is that when you pull up the satellite image for the Western Atlantic and Caribbean, it already shows Frances OUT of the 20 box. So, is the Goes not updated or what?
No arguing over the northward movement, just check out the other satellite look and it still looks like it's stairstepping.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:48 PM |
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Re: Northward motion
|
It probably is--I've heard on TWC numerous times that hurricanes dont generally move in straight lines, they wobble
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:51 PM |
|
|
Re: Clark - FSU Superensemble?
|
So what you're saying is that the latest model runs are no good? Please 'splain, my friend.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:52 PM |
|
|
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Re: Northward motion
|
Running a long range radar loop from San Juan over a few hours shows a general westerly movement with a tinge to the north. Not quite WNW more W but close to WNW.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:52 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
Hopefully I am speaking to the choir. The bottomline for those who live on FL east coast and are reading these boards wondering what to do or not do, is to begin preparing NOW; this does not mean panic....get some supplies...check your shutters/bolts/plywood......and sometimes take a break from these boards... watching the tennis match in the models can drive you nuts....remember what you do now can also help you next month...when the peak of the season begins!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:53 PM |
|
|
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Re: Northward motion
|
Yes, me too. Especially with an eye as big as Frances', it might be hard to discern between a "wobble" and an actual track change. Jeez, I'm getting a headache.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:55 PM |
|
|
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Re: Northward motion
|
the only way to get the actual motion trend is to look at the wide view--the images are spaced farther apart than on the floater
or you could block out every other image (by clicking the squares)
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:56 PM |
|
Great high resolution sat pix
|
not many loops but impressive if you have not viewed it yet..
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...e&itype=vis
still looks to me at about 280 to 285 degrees... from all the radar looks I taken of late
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:57 PM |
|
Re: recon
|
many thanks, colleen!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:02 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
One thing to rememver about tracking a center with radar is that the further away you are from the radar, the higher in the storm you are sampling...for instance, at about 80 miles away you are looking at 10000 ft up in the storm...now, if the storm isn't perfectly upright, then as you scan up into the storm, it can appear to impart a motion that isn't a true motion because of that lean. Not saying that this is happening in this case, but be wary of tracking a storm center at range with radar.
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:04 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
I just want to say that everyone in Florida needs to wait and watch to see what will happen. I love to track hurricane's I would never wish someone to lose life or belongings like our friends in Cent Fl have. I hope that that people prepare for the worst and pray for the best. Be prepared and keep cool I guess is what I am trying to say. I am in Jax and if it comes here then oh well, it does. "Nobody can change what will happen in life, they can only learn and accept." Be safe all...
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:05 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
colleen, does it look like it is getting stronger. looks like a classic cv hurricane. its barely moving north maybe .01 degree. mainly west as it has been.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:08 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
Good point Jason as you can't see the LLC that far out using the PR radar loops, however, I always try to combine the radar presentation with sat pixs both IR and VIS (if available) in making a determination as to direction of system... untl recon tells me what's really going on.... I think using both systems (radar/sat pix) you can get about a 90% accuracy as to overall direction... IMO
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:10 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
looks to me like it is going a little north of west at the moment and the last couple of sat shots
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:19 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
twc was talking few minutes ago, maybe headed to cat.5 it looks im afraid the best it has . and it still moving mainly west over the last advisories.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:19 PM |
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Re: Northward motion
|
I see it too
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:20 PM |
|
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Re: Northward motion
|
For about 2-3 frames its moving slightly North. I would want to see that for awhile before its a trend though. Anyway, just be prepared. People here in Southern Brevard are taking this very seriously. Generators, wood, water....Its going fast.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:20 PM |
|
|
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Re: Northward motion
|
Wouldn't the pressure have to fall a good 22 mb for a cat 5 ?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:22 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
If the current visible show, as I think it does, that it is about to cross 65 at approx 20.5N then it is to the right of the GFS/GFDL numbers...( GFDL 20.5N/66.5W)...Food for thought.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:22 PM |
|
movement wwnw
|
The ke to this system is the influence of the high pressure ridge. The models had the ridge moving offshore, hence, allowing frances to turn more northerly. However, to my knowledge, that hasn't happened.
Forward motion appears the same too...so, the track will stay about the same. Could be a sweeping slow turn to the north, and not anything generally quick to pick up.
Wonder what the update will show as far as intensity. Huge layer of purple convection wrapping around the storm, with the eye getting more and more concentric. Storm is intensifying.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:28 PM |
|
|
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Re: Northward motion
|
I'm still confused as to why the GOES Satellite doesn't have it outside the 20 box yet, but when you look at the Western Atlantic & Carib. satellite, it is! Another interesting thing I noticed: looking at the strike probablilities archive, the probs have gone UP for WPB instead of DOWN. You would think that with the new track it would have been the opposite.
Well, 5pm will be interesting. And yes, it looks like it's getting stronger. And bigger.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:28 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
Similar to Doug's comment, the center might be a few ticks of a degree to the right of the NHC forecast track, but not a significant amount; certainly not enough to say that it's off of that track. So far, what little northward component to the motion exists is consistent with the NHC's forecast.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:28 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
HMC, the pressure in hurricanes varies. For instance, in 1992, Andrew was a tropical storm with an amazingly high pressure of 1015mb. Local atmospheric pressures can affect tropical system pressures, and they can have higher than normal pressures but still have much higher wind speeds, and vice versa. In 1999, Floyd reached its max at 150mph with a minimum pressure of 921mb. Last year, when Isabell reached Cat 5 strength, it's mininum was 920, and at one point it was a Cat 5 with a pressure as high as 938mb. There are many factors involved, but you don't necessarily need another 22mb drop to see a Cat 5 with Frances.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:31 PM |
|
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|
A 27A Advisory....
|
will be helpful. Doesn't that come in at around 2 or so? Maybe that will give us some more brainfood.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:35 PM |
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Re: Northward motion
|
The probs will go up because the system is getting closer-regardless of its path.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:35 PM |
|
amazing what a hundred miles can mean.
|
A little further south, and the beautiful Virgin Islands would have suffered terrible damage, with Puerto Rico next. Suffice to say, a plane trip out of the Bahamas is in order. We watch this, and just a little thought, and we realize...."what would I be doing, if I had delayed...and a plane out of the Bahamas is not possible?"...I for one, would NOT want to be on a little Island with a cat 5 barreling down on me....
Sure hope it misses the islands..but don't see it...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Northward motion
|
Let's not forget Charley, who had an 18mb pressure drop down to 944mb with winds at 115mph at 10am, then at 11am it skyrocketed to 145mph just as it was about to make landfall.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:36 PM |
|
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Re: A 27A Advisory....
|
so with the new track does that lesssen central Florida hit
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:37 PM |
|
|
Re: movement wwnw
|
Even though the folks in Florida shouldn't let their guard down, the scariest part is now where the storm is heading and it looks like Savannah is going to feel the brunt of it. And they are already having some monor flooding in that part of the state now.
I would think that Gov. Perdue would be best served leaving the convention in NYC and heading back to Atlanta, because they probably are going to have to activate the state EOC probably sometime on Wednesday if Frances' current track and speed remain the same. If a Friday/Saturday landfall in SE Georgia is predicted then they would at least need a 48-hour window to evacuate the coastal areas and flip I-16 to one way( like with Floyd). BUT< with the dearth of hotel rooms in Macon and here in Atlanta, you could see a major exodus to Alabama to get away from this monster.
This has to be the most frustrating storm to try and figure out the track and the timing. I guess I'm sounding alarmist because even though I'm 4 hours from the coast, the not knowing is the worst thing.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:40 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
Quote:
I'm still confused as to why the GOES Satellite doesn't have it outside the 20 box yet, but when you look at the Western Atlantic & Carib. satellite, it is!
Colleen, shoot me the links to the sats you are looking at and I will try to clear it up....
Quote:
Another interesting thing I noticed: looking at the strike probablilities archive, the probs have gone UP for WPB instead of DOWN. You would think that with the new track it would have been the opposite.
Not really, as the storm gets closer, the overall confidence in the forecast track gets better...remember that is not over WPB, but with 65 MILES of WPB...that is simply just a reflection of Frances being closer to the US.
Quote:
Well, 5pm will be interesting. And yes, it looks like it's getting stronger. And bigger.
Yes, it does....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: A 27A Advisory....
|
Yes, it does. But just keep in mind that it is still heading in our general direction, and the track really can't be pinned down until we see some real consistincies with the track/models etc. Also, don't just look at the
symbol, look all around it. That's the margin of error. The closer it gets, the smaller that will become and somewhere someone will be breathing a sigh of relief while others start hyperventilating. Keep yourself tuned in to your local news.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:46 PM |
|
Re: A 27A Advisory....
|
it is moving wwnw you have to look at overall path not every little wobble. this thing is getting very strong......think models are are going left again.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:51 PM |
|
Something to consider!
|
If Frances is getting stronger, which she looks like she is, she could possibly change the environment around her which would really complicate things. The stronger she gets,the more likely she creates her own path. Models will not pick up on that. If I'm wrong about this than please excuse this whole post!
ShawnS
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:53 PM |
|
|
|
Satellite Loops
|
Here you go, Jason:
GOES Satellite Loop
Western Atlantic WV Loop
I couldn't get the visible page to come up; but I did notice that on this one it sure has jumped to the north quite a bit.
Thanks for clearing up the strike probs. question up, and helping me understand these pictures.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:56 PM |
|
Re: Something to consider!
|
twc it is now down to 27.92 from 28.05
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:57 PM |
|
T Numbers
|
I use to have a site book-marked which has the most recent t-numbers. Anyone still have a link to this site?
Thanks!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:57 PM |
|
Re: Something to consider!
|
Frances *is* getting stronger. Latest Recon has the pressure down to 942mb.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:58 PM |
|
noaa3
|
URNT11 KWBC 311728
97779 17284 30207 64719 24200 12112 15125 /8487
RMK NOAA3 1106A FRANCES OB 06 KWBC
winds 112? 20.7N 64.7w?
not a center fix tho
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:58 PM |
|
|
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Re: T Numbers
|
942 mb
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:59 PM |
|
Re: Satellite Loops
|
This is definitely more WNW than W.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Northward motion
|
Wouldn't the "wobbles" be attributed to Frances sort of feeling her way along the bottom of the ridge? I mean the ridge isn't a perfect shape, and where it dips or retreats wouldn't Frances also move a bit north of south? Also, does anyone have a link to a map/model of exactly what the subtropical ridge is forecast to look like in the upcoming days?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:00 PM |
|
Re: Satellite Loops
|
OK..there isn't much disparity there to my eye...everything looks right with one exception..you don't track the center with WV!!!!
(I'm not harping on you specifically here, BTW), You are seeing the mid-level center on WV and the low level center on Vis's....they SHOULDN'T match up exactly,Otherwise, I really still don't follow you, because the two loops you linked match up quite well.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Something to consider!
|
Well, this is just my own thought: could be that while Frances was busy intensifying, she was wobbling here and there. Of course, I could (and probably am) incorrect.
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:03 PM |
|
|
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Re: Satellite Loops
|
colleen,
its crosed 20 and 65...moving a good clip actually, wnw continues and its on track but maybe a bit fast. if yous tart to see it slow than there might be a turn coming but that really isnt part of the plan.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Something to consider!
|
Quote:
Well, this is just my own thought: could be that while Frances was busy intensifying, she was wobbling here and there. Of course, I could (and probably am) incorrect.
I was going to say the exact same thing but didn't feel like getting bashed
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Satellite Loops
|
Thanks, Jason...it is definitely hard to follow me at times.
I was looking at the Visibles from both; the only reason I posted the WV was because the visible would not come up on the NHC's website.
It will all come together for me sooner or later. Hopefully sooner.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:09 PM |
|
Re: Northward motion
|
Don't know what your looking at, but it wobbled north and has since wobbled back wsw a little. Still on a westerly course.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:09 PM |
|
|
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Re: Satellite Loops
|
If i am looking at the 12Z GFS right, it looks like it shifted to the left near Cape Canaveral on Sunday and shooting up to SC/GA Border on Monday morning.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:11 PM |
|
|
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Re: Something to consider!
|
West at 16mph...so it's sped up a little bit and now expected to make a turn later on today. I think they may be a little conservative with the winds.
I'm not afraid to get bashed. I'm a weather hobbiest, not an expert. Besides, I don't take it personally, I just take it as a "gentle learning curve".
Than I send Frank P. out to finish you off.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:13 PM |
|
Re: Satellite Loops
|
THE NASA HAS PLACED LANDFALL AT WEST PALM BEACH, DISCOUNTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
CAN SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN WHY THE NHC IS RELYING SO HEAVILY ON THIS EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE?
SEEMS TO ME THE MODELS MAY BE RELYING ON HISTORICAL DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH RECON???
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:13 PM |
|
|
18Z GFS
|
How long will it take for the 18Z GFS to get all the data needed to put out a run?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:14 PM |
|
ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs
|
Thanks first off for all your help here.
First.. why isn't Miami a 9 on probs and WPB say a 12?
Why are they both the same if the storm is supposed to come in up the coast at a higher angle? That sort of makes me wonder.
Second.. there is talk Miami could get stronger than TS winds which yesterday was mostly what "they" were saying.
Third..does anyone know here how the FSU ensemble is going? Are they in line with a right hand turn or are they the same as yesterday? Does anyone know?
Fourth..Because as it strengthens it develops a high aloft which enhances the high pressure driving it west? Is possibly why it is moving faster now than it was before?
Fifth..can someone point out the where the weakness will be on Thursday late in the day?
thanks
| Kimster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:14 PM |
|
|
Re: Northward motion
|
I don't believe that is necessarily true.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:16 PM |
|
how its lookin?
|
THE 2 PM AST POSITION...20.3 N... 65.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB
so were does this put it in relation to model runs?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Satellite Loops
|
There basing their forecast so heavily on the weakeness on the ridge because the ridge is governing the track of Frances if it wasn't there or not so south this cane would have become a fish spinner, or set it's sights on a new target.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:17 PM |
|
|
Re: Something to consider!
|
I'm still with my southern North Carolina call from last week (yeah, that's south of the Outer Banks). I could be a tad far north to be sure.
Anyway, Ken Aucion (former Fox8 #2 Met know Chief at a station in Columbia, SC) also thinks Frances has a great shot of attaining Cat V status. Bastardi think it can get down a slow as 925mb but if it follows his track, he thinks it's weakening at landfall.
He also did a nice expose of a SE flow this year which would tend to concentrate the rain and storms a certain way (e.g. Gulf wouldn't probably get hit from a long tracked storm but more likely from something developing out of the Caribbean or Gulf itself.
Steve
PS - A rickonboat post without a cat 5 call for Mobile is a day without vitamin c - serious time or not.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:20 PM |
|
|
|
Models
|
What is the NASA? Is that a model used by the NHC? Yesterday the NHC stated that it was relying on the GFDL because of it's consistency. There's so much information coming in that has to be fed into all these models; let's not forget that they're input by human hands and errors can be made either way. I really don't think there's a "general consensus" with the models at this point.
Another interesting point: when Charley was coming, almost every single model brought it in to Tampa Bay, except one. I think it was the MM5 or something like that...it brought it onshore at Ft. Myers.
It was right.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:23 PM |
|
|
|
1745 Dvoraks
|
31/1745 UTC 20.4N 65.0W T6.0/6.0 FRANCES
31/1745 UTC 40.1N 70.0W T2.5/2.5 GASTON
6.0/6.0
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:24 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
I meant NASA, they are forecasting the system separate and apart from the NHC, making their own forecast -- in fact, they are launching Saturday's rocket today, and evacuating their premises after launch...they expect landfall in S. Fla and then a push upward through the state
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:24 PM |
|
|
|
Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs
|
I can anwser your third question, your are right about the high being over the hurricane, it's the main driving force for the outflow of a hurricane. As the upper level high becomes stronger it pushes dry, subsiding air over the ridge, making it strengthen. Yes, that is a possibly reason for it moving faster than it was before, but it moving more west is somewhat likely. A hurricane is a cork in a river, it modifies it's existing surrondings, so what your saying could be a reason for the general westward movement.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:25 PM |
|
|
|
I Agree!
|
Yes, it would be like a day without Vitamin C not to hear the "Mobile" hit once a day. Even a broken clock's right twice a day, huh?
I can't even think of predicting where this storm is going to go. I don't think I ever have, come to think of it. I'm not that good at predicting any type of weather event, so why even bother?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
NASA also can not wait for a definate track. If the Atlas rocket for tonight does not get launched, they may have to do major stowage work to protect the payload. NASA will always have to take the most conservative route becuase of the time it takes them to secure operations. Therefore, NASA has to act before many other agencies. However, they still only use the same information that the NHC has. They do not have anything different. They may choose to interpet differently for their own use.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:27 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Satellite Loops
|
Quote:
THE NASA HAS PLACED LANDFALL AT WEST PALM BEACH, DISCOUNTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
CAN SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN WHY THE NHC IS RELYING SO HEAVILY ON THIS EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE?
SEEMS TO ME THE MODELS MAY BE RELYING ON HISTORICAL DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH RECON???
Do you have the link to NASA???
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:28 PM |
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|
|
NASA site?
|
>>> I meant NASA, they are forecasting the system separate and apart from the NHC, making their own forecast
Is the NASA site available for the public (at least the weather forecast portion)? If so, can you post a link to it?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:29 PM |
|
Re: Models
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noaa flights and sat and gps drops obs...a 1330utc 31 aug.... had most winds ne of center (strongest 22nm , ne of center) a very classical looking hurricane..... she did have a big area of cat 3 winds from north to south on east side extending far from center..(maybe by 35miles at most)..
*note this just reasearch data*
i am going over data coming in right now from noaa3, (they done alot of drops today)..... think i saw a wind guest of or near 157
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:29 PM |
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Re: Models
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Actually, they have not moved anything up. It is the same rocket that they have scrubbed the launch on for four consecutive since last Saturday. I doubt they get it off before they have to take it off the bad and remove the payload.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:29 PM |
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Re: Models
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That is not totally correct. The rocket they are attempting to lift off, a spy rocket, was actually scheduled for lift off days ago and the launch has been scrubbed every day , including yesterday, because of lightening in the area.. So Saturday's rocket is actually last weeks rocket...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:45 PM |
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs
|
Lois:
"First.. why isn't Miami a 9 on probs and WPB say a 12?
Why are they both the same if the storm is supposed to come in up the coast at a higher angle? That sort of makes me wonder."
Because Miami is closer to the storm than WPB. Those probabilities only reflect the chance of the storm coming within 65 nm within 72 hours. Thus, Miami's odds on the NHC site will rise somewhat earlier than WPB's, because Miami will be in that 72-hour window several hours before WPB. Similarly, when the NHC was predicting that Charley would landfall near Tampa, the odds for cities farther South (e.g., Naples) went up before the odds for Tampa went up because most of the 3-day forecasts still had it south of Tampa.
So IF the forecast track remains the same, then the WBP odds should be slightly higher than Miami's odds in a day or two. However, because the two cities are not that far apart and because some of the same models that project a hit farther south would bring it within 65 nm of both cities, the odds for the two cities likely will not be that much different.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:47 PM |
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs
|
And I meant, "that much different FROM EACH OTHER," not, "that much different FROM WHAT THEY ARE NOW." Of course the odds will change - likely increase - as the storm gets closer.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:48 PM |
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NASA
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Okay, well if NASA has such a great weather forecasting group, why the heck don't they launch these rockets BEFORE lightning strikes? Like in the morning? Geez louise.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:50 PM |
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Re: Models
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Toho is right on this one. My other half works for a telemetry site which tracks launches and this one was originally set to go friday but mechanical as well as weather has scrubbed it out.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:51 PM |
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Re: NASA
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Colleen I was wondering the same thing about the launches........do it before the t-storms come up.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:55 PM |
Re: NASA
|
Why not launch in the morning when there is less lighning? Well because certain payloads are intended for specific geo-synchronus orbits. The launch has to be specifically timed to reach a certain point over the earth while expending the least amount of fuel. It's called a "launch window" . Jeez Louise!
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:55 PM |
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Re: NASA
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I think the launch times are dictated by where they want the satelite to be positioned and the intended orbit. But I agreee,the wx is usually fine in the moring. Go figure.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:55 PM |
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Re: NASA
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will someone please say if central Florida is less likely to get the blunt of Frances ... in your thoghts is Jaxvl and north more likely to take the hit?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:55 PM |
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Re: NASA
|
OK, Gut call here. The ULL is really acclerating to the West now. This was one of the features to turn the system more West. High pressure seems to be in control over Florida. The system is picking up speed. Really just a matter of does it beat the trough in or will the trough even have an affect. I'm going with Florida storm!
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:56 PM |
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cat 5 soon
|
won't see a hurricane much worse than this...is 200 mph winds possible?...
sho enough...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:57 PM |
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Re: NASA
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Why would you want someone to commit to such a statement?
This far out it would be like reaching over your shoulder to scratch your butt.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:58 PM |
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Re: NASA
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Quote:
OK, Gut call here. The ULL is really acclerating to the West now. This was one of the features to turn the system more North. High pressure seems to be in control over Florida. The system is picking up speed. Really just a matter of does it beat the trough in or will the trough even have an affect. I'm going with Florida storm!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:58 PM |
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Re: NASA
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Thunderstorms aren't exactly easy to predict. You can predict a likelihood a day or two in advance, but the exact location is almost impossible until the day of the storm.
In any case...back on topic.
Frances is looking better on satellite imagery, if not exactly symmetrical with it's convection. With the eyewall cycle from yesterday back in the past and warm water/low shear ahead, strengthening is likely for a day or two at least. I would not be surprised to see the convection go more symmetric (it's there now, but ragged along the edges) and see the storm reach to near cat 5 status...probably not yet, but during the next diurnal max.
Track -- still the million dollar question. Due to liability issues, I can't give out the Superensemble material any more, so I apologize. I will say that it pretty much follows the NHC official track from last night, however, but is higher on intensity. I'd still trend a little to the left of that, but there is considerable uncertainty with the eventual track and I'm not buying the recurvature bit...not yet at least. The further south it makes landfall, the more people it will impact and the stronger it will be. Kinda obvious, yes, but worth repeating.
No idea about what's going on outside the Frances realm today, so I'll leave it at that.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:59 PM |
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Re: NASA
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If the ULL accelerates westward, does that mean Central Florida is still in the line of fire? What are your thoughts about this?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:59 PM |
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Re: NASA
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Yeah but the meter ticks for those that are involved in the launch..............the scrubs and wait times do run into lots of money.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:59 PM |
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Re: cat 5 soon
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URNT11 KWBC 311848
97779 18484 30216 67600 24400 05037 14093 /8013
RMK NOAA3 1106A FRANCES OB 13 KWBC
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:00 PM |
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Re: NASA
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I gave my reasoning. It's not as if I just threw a dart at the board. My reasoning stands for itslef, albeit it could be wrong. I'm not a professional so this isn't to be taken as such. And if I'm wrong I'll gladly eat crow. BTW, at the present motion of the system it realls isn't that far out.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:01 PM |
Caneman
|
Did you mean maybe the ULL would have caused it to turn NORTH?
ShawnS
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:03 PM |
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs
|
Much uncertainty with regards to Frances. Models not helping much at least in the long term. GFS which continues too flip back and forth. 00z GFS had it headed towards NC-12z now has it brushing FL coastline and lanfalling in GA. Latest spaghetti model plot has few making sharp turn toward NW-N, several bring this towrds central/N FL,and then theres a few which head it more west-WNW. I'am still up in the air on future of ridging to north as many are, for now I''ll go with ''possible'' landfall between Stuart and Jacksonville FL(or what previous NHC 5AM track was) although still a ton of question marks???
| c ray |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:05 PM |
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Re: NASA
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Long time lurker (since Floyd), and posted only one time. I always use this site to keep informed as storms approach, and it's no different w/ Frances. I live in Brevard Co., and the company I work for is in the furniture business with deliveries scheduled each day through the weekend. My question to those who are more in the know would be this- if the track remains close to the East Coast when would evacuations begin to go up? As a company we are trying to decide a course of action and would appreciate any input to help decide when to suspend operations if needed.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:05 PM |
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Re: NASA
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Hey Caneman,
I was refering to:
will someone please say if central Florida is less likely to get the blunt of Frances ... in your thoghts is Jaxvl and north more likely to take the hit?
--------------------
JustMe
Just me's statement, I don't think anyone can tell him if he is clear or not.
| Brett |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:05 PM |
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs
|
Great debate here kids. Thanks for the information Jason. Answer me this: We all agree the strength and/or weakness of the ridge to the north will determine the fate of Frances. What I have not seen are updates on this issue. Local mets here last night were discussing the possibility that if the trough in the northern US deepens, a high pressure ridge somewhere would have to correspondigly strengthen, and all bets were on the atlantic high. Are there any idications as to whether the ridge is strenghtening, moving, or weakening? Is it possible Frances could follow the AVN and do a slow swing north and slice the coast of florida all the way up through the carolinas? I would rather not have to board up my windows, and have a wedding to attend on Saturday. Where can I look to see the strength of the ridge to plan accordingly?
Puzzled,
Brett
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:05 PM |
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Re: cat 5 soon
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Well everything I have seen over the past hour shows Frances making a mnor jog northwestward and now continues west at this time. Frances continues to look stronger on satellite as outflow increasing to the north allowing Frances to strengthen again. I would epect pressures to fall this afternoon and winds increase to a strong Cat. 4(150 mph). I was thinking earlier that Frances was making its turn w-nw but simce its jog a definit west track has continued. I do agree Frances will turn w-nw as it approaches the Bahama's but again exactly where it makes the turn is very important. I still do not feel Frances will miss Florida but where in Florida is still unknown. My guess is still between WPB and Vero Beach. Like everyone else wait and see.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:05 PM |
Re: cat 5 soon
|
(Duplicate post removed by moderator)
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:07 PM |
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs
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appreciate your thoughts and help
have company wanting to come to florida for the holiday
i want to tell them not to come
thanks again
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:07 PM |
|
could it be?
|
the "front" over the southeast is pulling north due to high over florida and ULL over se florida is pushing in GOM.. this appears to be worse case possible.... more south track into florida.....unless atlantic high moves east fast, florida is under the gun
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:12 PM |
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Re: Projections
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The models are all up in the air and I really don't think we will know where it makes landfall at until a couple of hours before. Like with Charley, all the models were in general agreement with Tampa Bay, but one had it going into Ft. Myers. And by chance, it did go towards Ft. Myers. I'm not buying this recurvature thing, and I don't think we'll know whats going to happen till it actually does. Everyone from Miami to Jacksonville should be on the lookout.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:12 PM |
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Re: could it be?
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your right john. some 18z models in and show again east central florida.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:13 PM |
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Re: could it be?
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The ULL in the Bahamas was barely moving earlier and now it looks like it is really retrograding. Wouldn't this be because of a fairly stong ridge shoving it? And the spped of Frances has picked up again wouldn't this be becuase of a fairly strong ridge? I don't know all the answers but that is what it seems like to me.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:14 PM |
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Re: could it be?
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I was looking at the water vapor loop and it looked as if the trough is not moving further south. Is the trough currently starting at New Orleans and moving NE across Alabama the deciding factor or is it one behind that.
The reason I ask is with Charley, the trough extended way into the GOM. This one doesn't seem to be moving further south than New Orleans.
Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but an ULL will put a hurricane approaching from the west, as in this case, would be pulled to the north. After all, upper level winds would be going counterclockwise and upper level winds are the steering for the hurricanes. That would mean Frances would get tugged from 5 p.m toward midnight.
Please let me know if I'm wrong.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:14 PM |
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Re: could it be?
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Where are you getting these models from? Whats the website? I'd appreciate it!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:16 PM |
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Re: could it be?
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And if I'm right. I also think landfall in Florida would be wuicker then what is progged. Say Friday afternoon if landfall is Miami but Friday evening if Vero or the Cape. Thoughts and input welcome
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:16 PM |
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Re: NASA
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Clark, thanks for your post and insight,
You told us a lot with your post.
No false hope here of an early turn.
Everyone in Florida please take this storm seriously.
Make preparations now, today while you have time.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:18 PM |
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Re: could it be?
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yes, I meant to say North but now with the ULL backing out it may not have any affect on pulling Frances North.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:18 PM |
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Re: could it be?
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Much uncertainty with regards to Frances. Models not helping much at least in the long term. GFS which continues too flip back and forth. 00z GFS had it headed towards NC-12z now has it brushing FL coastline and lanfalling in GA. Latest spaghetti model plot has few making sharp turn toward NW-N, several bring this towrds central/N FL,and then theres a few which head it more west-WNW. I'am still up in the air on future of ridging to north as many are, for now I''ll go with ''possible'' landfall between Stuart and Jacksonville FL(or what previous NHC 5AM track was) although still a ton of question marks???
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:20 PM |
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Re: recon
|
URNT14 KNHC 311813
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01191 10635 13132 11107 23050
02193 20637 23126 21103 21046
03194 30639 33109 31006 22051
04196 40641 43083 41107 22055
05198 50643 53043 51208 22058
06200 60644 63985 61111 23075
07202 70646 73838 71311 21100
MF202 M0647 MF105
OBS 01 AT 1701Z
OBS 07 AT 1725Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01205 10651 13620 11813 05082
02207 20652 23885 21210 06116
03208 30654 33995 31110 06099
04210 40656 43058 41109 05073
05212 50658 53088 51009 05069
06214 60660 63112 61206 05072
07215 70662 73130 71204 05062
MF205 M0651 MF137
OBS 01 AT 1733Z
OBS 07 AT 1759Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 04050
RMK AF985 1006A FRANCES OB 09
winds 137....20.5 65.1
URNT11 KNHC 311833
97779 18334 30192 66718 30600 33033 11038 /3131 43110
RMK AF985 1006A FRANCES OB 10
As HF will surely remind you, please don't rip & paste these reports unless you can add some commentary or explanation. Thanks!
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:21 PM |
|
Re: NASA
|
From the 2:05 tropical discussion:
"Another upper cyclone...400NM in diameter...is along the W periphery of the altc ridge near 24N78W. The cyclone is retrograding W at about 10KT...possibly contributing slightly to Frances steering N of due W at this time."
Recall I suggested yesterday and again this morning this low would influence the course of the strom and because it was not retrograding as fast as the storm was approaching. Iit could explain why the models had picked up on the NW move...
Now the latest WV suggests that this ULL is accelerating to the SW a little faster and the strom has actually pushed this west much more today than it did yesterday. the eastern most influence of it westerday was over Hipanola, but today it is west of the Bahamas, and the axis of the ULL is digging to the SW. Perhaps the models tomorrow will reflect the lessining of the influence of this VERY LARGE upper feature, and reshape the projected path again.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:21 PM |
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|
Eyeball it...
|
Here's the WV Loop of the basin. You can clearly see the ULL over the Bahama's as well as the approaching trof. Clearly this could be a race...
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:23 PM |
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Re: could it be?
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Quote:
Where are you getting these models from? Whats the website? I'd appreciate it!
you can get models here
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:23 PM |
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Re: could it be?
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http://hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html
orlando heres one of many I use...
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:25 PM |
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs
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For JUst me ...
This hurricane is a major event. It can possibly be worse than Charley. Florida will not be a pleasant place to be before/during/ or after this storm.
Me? I would tell them most definately not to come.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:28 PM |
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Re: could it be?
|
Thanks a lot! That helps to understand what you all are talking about these models.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:29 PM |
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Re: NASA
|
I also mention that couple days ago Doug, good obs. I been tracking Frances on radar the last 4 hours and after a 2 hour wobble wnw then last 90 min has shown more w. I would suspect unless another jog occurs that it will be near 20.5N and 66w. Still moving w but wnw should happen this evening,(if not,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,what even say it!!) LOL.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:30 PM |
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Re: I Agree!
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Quote:What you *ARE* good at is exhibiting a bit of 'horse-sense' at times. You draw the 'alarmists' and the 'knowledgable' together when you ask questions and make observations...keep it going!
I can't even think of predicting where this storm is going to go. I don't think I ever have, come to think of it. I'm not that good at predicting any type of weather event, so why even bother?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:32 PM |
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Re: NASA
|
that is as of 5pm eastern,,,,recon shows pressure is down to 940mb,
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:35 PM |
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Re: NASA
|
meaning?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:36 PM |
|
recon
|
URNT12 KNHC 311907
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1907Z
B. 20 DEG 22 MIN N
65 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2579 M
D. 50 KT
E. 226 DEG 084 NM
F. 323 DEG 123 KT
G. 238 DEG 011 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 13 C/ 3074 M
J. 24 C/ 3057 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/07
O. .1 /2 NM
P. AF985 1006A FRANCES OB 11
MAX FL WIND 137 KT NW QUAD 1735Z. SMALL HAIL IN SW EYEWALL.
pressure down....also....noaa reported small hail too...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:38 PM |
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5 eastern?
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>>> that is as of 5pm eastern,,,,recon shows pressure is down to 940mb
Not sure what you are referring to scottsvb...it's 3:35 here in the Eastern time zone. Is that what will show up in the 5:00 TWD? Could you please explain a bit more...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:40 PM |
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Re: NASA
|
Scott, not to be offensive, but the 18Z models aren't out yet to my knowledge, particularly the GFS. Correct me if I'm wrong here. Where are your projections for Frances to Land?? Think its still a south/central florida event or north Florida//North.
| RBL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:40 PM |
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RE: Links
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Orlado,
This a good link where have all toghether:
http://www.net-waves.com/weather/td06.php
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:44 PM |
|
Re: ULL over the Bahamas
|
What interests me about this feature is that if the ULL erodes and elongates out to the SW as it seems to be doing , that could actually reinforce the ridge or build a secondary ridge in its wake that would certainly influence the storm's intensity and direction.
I'm not a scientist and this is just an opinion, but if this gets out of the way, I think Frances could stay south of the cyrrent model trend.
That's why we have to wait and see what shakes out tomorro, IMO.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:45 PM |
|
Site Performance
|
Mike and the admins...i just want to say that this site continues to have good performance compared to S2K...i imagine that will change rather soon though.
That's because Mike is jumping through hoops to keep it up and running. Everyone on this board owes Mike an incredible debt of gratitude. Let's hope she stays up...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:45 PM |
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Re: RE: Links
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Yes Phil, around that coor by 5pm, and yes steve the tropical models been out for 2 hours. Such as Lbar, Bamms models.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:47 PM |
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Re: RE: Links
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Dont know exact landfall, I wont have a good idea till after the 12z models come out weds, but still even then, things can change.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:47 PM |
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Re: recon
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between last vortex and this on.e... she gained about 1m bigger eye....and pressure dropped... also it apears that from nw to ne and to se side winds are above 110mph!!!!
she may become a cat 5 overnight
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:49 PM |
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Re: recon
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I know that this is a little OT but is Stacy doing the 5pm update ?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:52 PM |
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Re: Site Performance
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Yes he does......................and if this becomes a pay site, count me in as it is not cheap to run something like this. Redbird
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:52 PM |
|
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Landfall?
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Tomorrow is the make or break day...been saying that all along as have others. We won't know for sure even then, but with all the empirical and other data, climo & even eyesight (plus all the models), we will probably be able to guestimate a landfall location within 100-200 miles...strength will be much tougher to predict. Whereever it does decide to go ashore, though, we better hope it happens at low tide, because we had a full moon last night and tides will still be a bit higher than normal at landfall.
Everyone should probably take a big break from tracking Frances over the next 12-24 hours and catch up on sleep. Doesn't appear too many of us will be getting much of that come Thursday and onward...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:53 PM |
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Re: Site Performance
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Quote:I agree this site is super. Why are you saying 'change rather soon'?
Mike and the admins...i just want to say that this site continues to have good performance compared to S2K...i imagine that will change rather soon though.
Also, because this hurricane and it's effects are so important to so many people, and given the links here (and elsewhere) have and may continue to go down, I think it would be prudent for each member here to have an alternate site or two as a backup. If FLHurricane were to go down or be unreachable, where is the best alternate that gives the kind of data and expertise we see here. Certainly, the NHC site, but it doesn't tell us much about either the why or the alternatives. What URL's would you contribute for backup purposes? I hope this site does NOT go down, but I also hope my power doesn't get cut as this storm affects this area, but both events are likely....I know about generators and batteries, but what about good backups for this site IF needed. Lives could be affected by haveing good alternatives as this storm gets closer to whomever, S, Central or N, whomever ultimately gets the 'prize' of a Frances visit.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:55 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
|
Looks like anouther track shift based on the models .
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
I wonder if the NHC track will change in the next adv that we should have in the next 40 mins.
If your running low of space I would be glad to donate just let me know .
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:56 PM |
|
what does this mean?
|
31/1145 UTC 20.0N 63.2W T5.5/5.5 FRANCES
31/1745 UTC 20.4N 65.0W T6.0/6.0 FRANCES
cat 4? she is strengthing right?
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:56 PM |
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Re: Site Performance
|
the closer the storm gets...the more people will jam up these boards.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:57 PM |
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Re: Site Performance
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Yeah the site is showing signs of cracking, but I've got plaster ready. I've upgraded the server a bit Sunday, and I may have to again. The site requirements for a place like this are odd, in that it can be relatively slow for a while and then suddenly it spikes -- as in several orders of magnitude, as a 10GB access log file for the first half of August shows. I have been tweaking settings and memory to streamline it as well as offloading images to another bandwidth throttled server. (Text remains unthrottled)
I do have something new I just wrote, especially because of model fun... http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php
Is using the model group linked on the front page and taking snapshots every hour and animating it on that screen. It only has one seed image now, but should become more useful over time to help see trends in the models.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:00 PM |
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cool sat shot!
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sat shot
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:02 PM |
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Re: Site Performance
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Mike-I love the model animator concept. It'll be great to see a visual model trend history, as opposed to raw numbers and archived images. Kudos.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:08 PM |
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Re: Site Performance
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That will be a great tool!
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:08 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
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In reply to HCW...
My goodness, just look at how bad that UKMET initialization is! It is WELL north and east of even the last NHC intialization. I really can't buy into the UKMET track when the initial position is that far off. The GFDL is a little closer but seems to really be an outlier by taking the storm right up into South Carolina.
The 12Z GFS doesn't look too bad to me. It basically takes the storm into NE Florida, which seems reasonable given the pattern at this time.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:10 PM |
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Motion
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i still think this storm is goind more wnw than w...minus a few wobbles left and right
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:13 PM |
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Re: Motion
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It has to go wnw or else it bumps into the islands.
The forward speed is what has me concerned. Was this speed predicted? I think landfall may be sooner than originally thought.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:13 PM |
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Re: Site Performance
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Thanks Mike - great work so far. No doubt the system's gonna crash at some point, but hopefully you'll have it back up and running soon thereafter. For the west movement folks, zoom in on your favorite GOES loop and you will see the system overall heading is WNW or north of due west, but it's not moving west. Frances is climbing in lat:
Check:
NOAA Vis
ORCA global infrared
Both depictions clearly show Frances attaining lat (pushing 21). DT (I think it was) believed this would be temporary as Frances felt the nudge from Gaston. We'll see.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:15 PM |
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will it look the same?
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this s floyd in 1999... 1999 September 14, 12:59 UT
fixing to see frances soon!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:17 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
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Watched the Tropical Update at 2:50pm and Cheryl Lemke said that a "gradual wnw turn is expected in the next couple of days". Well, if this sucker's still moving at 16mph in 48 hours, that is 770 miles further west before it STARTS that turn. Are we even that far from the Bahamas?
About the NASA comment: I realize that there's windows of opportunity. I made a general comment. I never said that I was a rocket scientist.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:20 PM |
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agreed
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The plan was for it to start a wnw movement. As said if it doesnt it would crash into Cuba. Which is inside the cone but not expected. Not concerned with where it goes today as opposed to 3 days from now. Concerned a window opens but a narrow one and slams shut again and turns more west.
Will see.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:21 PM |
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Re: Site Performance
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Quote:Mike, not only are you a at *least* a fair to middlin' weather prognosticator, but your programming skills are quite evident.I know, before I retired to start teaching, I *was* a programmer for Lockheed Martin for many years... I recognize good work when I see it.
Yeah the site is showing signs of cracking, but I've got plaster ready. I've upgraded the server a bit Sunday, and I may have to again. The site requirements for a place like this are odd, in that it can be relatively slow for a while and then suddenly it spikes -- as in several orders of magnitude, as a 10GB access log file for the first half of August shows. I have been tweaking settings and memory to streamline it as well as offloading images to another bandwidth throttled server. (Text remains unthrottled)
I do have something new I just wrote, especially because of model fun... http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php
Is using the model group linked on the front page and taking snapshots every hour and animating it on that screen. It only has one seed image now, but should become more useful over time to help see trends in the models.
Having said that, you don't control the reliability of power, the backbone and the like, so like a generator backs up power, when needed, alternate sites are still a good idea, IHMO. I've been a fan of this site since you started about '95 or so, and keep coming back here, not because of 'hype' but because of performance value. Even if I have to use a backup, I'll be back, and I'll bet a lot of others have similar views. You needn't worry about competition, the service you offer is A-1 in my book. Keep up the good work!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:21 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
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No Colleen but you are a darn good weather person who has helped many see more clearly.
LOL the so-called rocket scientists botch up quite a bit.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:23 PM |
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SJ Radar
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Seeing these things on radar after watching so many sat loops is always a refreshing change. No matter where she goes, it's not going to be good. PR is VERY LUCKY as are the Islands. The Bahamas...that's a whole other story. Guess they're the first in line for the direct hit. Let's hope they make out OK
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:25 PM |
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cool pic
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evry seen something like this?
coooool pic....its a full moon over three storms
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:30 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
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Thanks, Redbird. I just like poking fun at myself, at least that way I don't take it personal. ;-)
I am anxiously awaiting the 5pm update, and then after THAT is over, I'm heading over to ESPN Fantasy Football to do my live draft at 6pm while trying to whip up dinner with a twitch of my nose around 8pm when Thing 1 and Thing 2 come home from football practice.
Sorry if that was OT, but I'm coming down with a case of Hurricanitis so I'm not quite myself. ;-)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:31 PM |
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here latest color sat
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here it comes
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:31 PM |
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Re: cool pic
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Check out updated track....across Brevard county!! 5 PM weather underground....can this be right....is only 4:30!
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:31 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
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This is an email I received around 2 pm, I hope he's not right for my sake.
It looks to me that many Meteorologists and the NHC are being led around by the daily changes in the GFS model. In the past 24 hours the NHC/TPC has moved the Florida landfall northward to West Palm Beach, then Melbourne and now Jacksonville. I can't say I ever remember a direct strike to Jacksonville or even Savannah for that matter. The most consistent model day to day has been the ECMWF which forecasts a Miami to Tampa Bay track.
I still think a CAT 4 SE Florida coast hurricane strike is our best bet, somewhere around a Miami-Fort Lauderdale window. However a Palm Beach landfall is possible. Why?
A factor for a more northerly landfall at Palm Beach may be that a piece of the front currently stationary over the deep SE may break away and linger. I considered this idea last week as a possible source of a home grown Gulf Of Mexico tropical cyclone. But his idea is not originally mine as it might apply to "Frances" but is certainly possible and important so I feel it important to mention it.
One thing that lingers in the back of mind though is this. What are the chances of a CAT 4 hurricane strike to both coasts of South Florida in one hurricane season? Or for that matter in 3 weeks.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:32 PM |
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Re: Site Performance
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Quote:
Mike, not only are you a at *least* a fair to middlin' weather prognosticator, but your programming skills are quite evident.I know, before I retired to start teaching, I *was* a programmer for Lockheed Martin for many years... I recognize good work when I see it.
Having said that, you don't control the reliability of power, the backbone and the like, so like a generator backs up power, when needed, alternate sites are still a good idea, IHMO. I've been a fan of this site since you started about '95 or so, and keep coming back here, not because of 'hype' but because of performance value. Even if I have to use a backup, I'll be back, and I'll bet a lot of others have similar views. You needn't worry about competition, the service you offer is A-1 in my book. Keep up the good work!
I am a programmer, that's what I do for a living. Currently doing financial work, but have done programming ranging from Aerospace Engineering to PC Games. Although I'm working in Virginia currenly, I'm tying to get a job back in Florida though.
There is an entire site redesign I've been working on most of the year with some help and I hoped to have it ready by now, but I think I'll tweak it some more (with experience from Charley and Frances) and throw it up for next season.
Frances is certainly a challenge, it's so easy to say "it'll go right" but every time I think it will, something else makes me doubt it.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:33 PM |
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Re: here latest color sat
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THAT is an awesome picture.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:34 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
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I got a posse of kids too and all that goes with it. I have some experience with Floyd thru my dad who was out here on business than..............same scenario as now but again uncertainty as to what will happen.
I got hurricanitis or is it just tired of all my son's friends here?
Back on topic---------------when do you think we will more definitive answers?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:35 PM |
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Re: cool pic
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Steve...you'll find out at 5pm. I imagine they get info and feed it in as fast as they can. Now, get outside and run a few laps.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:37 PM |
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Re: cool pic
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Colleen, I have the new 5PM track map in my hand!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:38 PM |
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Re: here latest color sat....MoV
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here' the mov file that goes with sat shot....i would recommend high-speed internet connection...and a mov player (windows media or quicktime player)
sat mov file
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:39 PM |
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Re: cool pic
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They've turned on the 1 minute rapid-scan GOES-12 imagery on Frances and there's some really cool stuff coming out of it right now. Remember the little vortices we saw inside of Isabel last year? Frances has 'em now too, about 4-5 depending on when you look. Don't recall the address, but it's from UWisc.
Cloud pattern got organized a bit faster than I thought, leading to an increase in strength. 5pm pressure is 939mb -- and for those interested, Lixion Avila is doing the 5pm. The storm is moving much further west and much faster than originally anticipated, meaning landfall is now in the 4 day window as opposed to near 5 days. NHC 5pm brings the storm up to 130kt, then levels it off a bit to 115kt before landfall near St. Augustine in 96-108hr. The storm then moves NW to just east of Valdosta, GA.
The track is slowly bending more left...as the upper low to the west retrogrades further and weakens, as it is doing now, I think we'll see it come a bit back further to the west with time as well.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:40 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
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I have noticed a reliance on the GFS. There seems to be a comfort level with it that other models do not give. However, I think they are trying to the best they can to make some sense out of the chaos.
It may be time to suggest a new slogan for Florida. Welcome to Florida! It will blow you away!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:41 PM |
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Re: cool pic
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Yes, they shifted it back a little to the left again. Yikes.
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:42 PM |
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Re: here latest color sat
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Off-topic:
Mike,
I can relate, I'm a web developer -- what languages are your forte?
Also, if you need help setting up a mirror for the site, or maybe just a place for a temp forum while this one is down, I have a dedicated server with over a terrabyte in bandwidth and tons of space (with domains). I'm using very little of my resources, 2% as it is.
Let me know if you're interested.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:46 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
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Sounds kind of like California Rocks! which it does quite often.
when we do start getting more frequent reports?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: here latest color sat
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Colleen, would I lie to you? Now I think I'll go outside and throw up
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:54 PM |
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Please Don't Throw Up
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Steve...what do you mean? You've never lied to me! I saw it, too.
Guys & Gals, you've been so good today...let's keep the chat room stuff in the other forums or PMs. Thanks!
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:56 PM |
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5pm Discussion
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200406.disc.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:59 PM |
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Re: Please Don't Throw Up
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Only kidding Colleen!! But they have the winds at 150 mph (130 knts), THen weakening to Cat3/4 before hitting. I think this may peak at 155/160...yikes.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:00 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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Avila's good, but he's no Stewart.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:01 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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So, basically the track as of 5pm today is pretty darned close to what it was at this time yesterday. I honestly believe that it is becoming more and more of a threat to Florida, and that if people have not begun to take some precautionary measures, now is the time to step up to the plate and do it. It won't be a waste of money, since we still have 4 months left in this season.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:02 PM |
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Re: Please Don't Throw Up
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Hmm so a little to the South, and maybe a little more to the south this evening.. I think I am smelling trouble with a capital T.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:02 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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Hey Clark,
Thanks for the headsup on the FSU SE model. Dr. Avilla referenced it in the 5 TWD. I used to be able to get some of the runs at independentwx.com, but they don't have the link for it anymore on their website
. It must have gone completely proprietary or something.Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:02 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
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| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:03 PM |
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Nasa Buddy
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Just got off the phone with him.
They have given everyone Friday off, so the can make prep.
His bosses believe they will call for a evac of barrier Islands Thursday PM
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:03 PM |
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Re: Landfall?
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SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY... DURING THE THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES
WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES IN TRACKS RANGING FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS....WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
WHICH...IN FACT...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE NEW NOGAPS AND GFDN RUNS. THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:08 PM |
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The Ridge
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What would cause the ridge that is making Frances stay westward and south to weaken?
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:17 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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Hey everyone, been awhile since I've posted. I've been doing my own research on Frances and my thought right now is that the ULL near S Fl and the Bahamas may have an effect on the track of Frances. The ULL is drifting SW and weaking, which should allow the ridge to build a bit more. Im guessing the ULL is what caused the little Northward movement earlier today. Also take into account the fact that Strong hurricanes strengthen the ridge over the top of them. So IMO this all leads to a landfall left of the NHC forecast track. Im in the same boat as DT basically. Any thoughts?? Also, if the Euro model is right it looks like Frances could become a threat to the Panhandle. This would only occur with a south flordia landfall. Steve, Coop, do ya'll have any thoughts about this?
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:24 PM |
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Re: The Ridge
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Jason,
An 'attack' on it would (via trof, split, front, etc.).
Steve
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:27 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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its a possibilty if it hits way south (west palm/miami) but my feeling is more central fla. like the nhc track. we may still get some winds but there won't be the water surge. as fast as it is moving if it does hit in southern fla it won't take it long to get in the gulf. i still don't buy into this northern turn.. i know it is going north some but i not sure there is going to be enough time to take it away from the fla coast as fast as it is moving. btw was it predicted to speed up like this?
| StormLover |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:27 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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Frances has been slowly speeding up within the last few hours. It seems that it won't have enough time to turn very far northward before it makes landfall. The weather channel's hurricane expert Dr. Steve Lyons said he felt the time of landfall would now be more around Friday night. How will passing over the Bahamas affect its strength before it hits the US? Anyone think we may be dealing with a possible Category 5 here?
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:29 PM |
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cat 5 Miami
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course, we all knew that, now didn't we?
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:36 PM |
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Re: cool pic
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Hi
Just registered yesterday... been lurking for a few days. Lots of relatives and friends all along the Eastern seaboard, they're all asking me ???s. eep.And my mom thought this would be a great week to take a cruise... yup.
Anyway... that pic? There are 4 storms I think... TS Howard is just off the Pacific coast of Mexico at 14.8N 108.4W 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004 according to NHC ... soon to be a hurricane which we won't need to worry about here. Cool pic.
Thanks ya'll for all the good info!
'shana
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:38 PM |
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Re: cat 5 Miami
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Well I think thats a way to seriously ruin your weekend, I don't think it will be Miami but maybe my area. Ugh, its going to be a heck of a weekend.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:44 PM |
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Wave Height
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FWIW, accuwx pro has a cool model called wave watch III. Looking at wave heights, it's showing 30' waves for 09Z05SEPT2004 from about Cocoa Beach all the way up to Jax. Yikes! That's wave height, not surge.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:46 PM |
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Re: Wave Height
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wonder what the surge will be?? plus with the wave height.. man alot of people are gonna lose some valuable real estate. makes me glad my flood policy is paid up
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:48 PM |
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Re: cat 5 Miami
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Anybody have acess to the ECMWF Ens.? Could you please post a link. It seems the Euro is the one model I have a hard time tracking down. Thanks
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:52 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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Quote:
Frances has been slowly speeding up within the last few hours. It seems that it won't have enough time to turn very far northward before it makes landfall. The weather channel's hurricane expert Dr. Steve Lyons said he felt the time of landfall would now be more around Friday night. How will passing over the Bahamas affect its strength before it hits the US? Anyone think we may be dealing with a possible Category 5 here?
Andrew did weaken somewhat over the Bahamas, didn't he? Of course, the warm, deep waters of the FL Straits allow for a bumping back up in strength.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:55 PM |
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WV Loop
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I was just looking at the water vapor loop and to be honest I do not see where there is anything that can keep Frances from moving west. It almost looks like the trough is being eaten away by either the ridge building in or maybe by Frances herself. I know that sounds stupid but at the same time I'm not real good at figuring out WV images and trying to get info from them. If this is not true than at least it will be a mistake I can learn from.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:55 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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How was Andrew's early track as compared to Frances? All I remember is Andrew barrelling right at us in South Florida?
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:02 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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andrews track
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:03 PM |
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Super-Rapid Scan Loops...
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Check out the Visible Floater....
SRSO loops...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:13 PM |
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Re: Super-Rapid Scan Loops...
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Jason, thanks for the info from last night. We are watching closely. Have noticed the shifts in the models again to the south. This may sound crazy, but Frances is a pretty gal! Prayers go out to the Bahamas! The next 48 hours may get pretty rough for them. Sorry, I have not registered. I can't at work, so i will try when I get home. Kimmie
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:18 PM |
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Re: Super-Rapid Scan Loops...
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European Model Request:
http://www.ecmwf.int/
Click on the maps (3 side by side) then click North America (to your right). then you can move between dates/times.
Steve
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:20 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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Been watching this storm dilligently all day like most everyone on the east coast I'm sure. I went back and checked out the movement from Saturday to today. Obviously this storm has moved much further west than it has north, but the difference was very evident when I plotted it out. From 5am Saturday to 5am today the difference in movement was 2.9 degrees north and 11.5 degrees west. From 5pm Sat to 5pm today it's movement was 2.6 degrees north and 13.3 degrees west. I keep seeing the trof draped across the SE just north of Florida, and that high pressure ridge out to the east. For some reason I just don't see Frances taking a dramatic turn to the NW and continuing that trend. Obviously a NW turn, and continued motion in that direction over the next few days would put landfall anywhere from Melbourne northward. However, like I said I have a gut feeling this thing is coming in through south Florida. I think it's moving too fast west, faster than some thought it would be at this point in time, to make a very dramatic turn to the NW and head on the track that the NHC has right now. Just a hunch, but I also hunched that Charley wasn't going to make it all the way to Tampa, though that one was a little easier to call.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:23 PM |
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Re: Super-Rapid Scan Loops...
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Steve,
Looks like the European has landfall between WPB & Vero. This general area is what most forecasts today are calling for.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:24 PM |
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Re: Super-Rapid Scan Loops...
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Where is HankFrank and his forecast??
i go to work in the day, man. no computers on the job site. -HF
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:25 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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when will the next models come out??
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:29 PM |
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Re: Super-Rapid Scan Loops...
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Quote:
Check out the Visible Floater....
SRSO loops...
This is not directly related to the hurricane (or maybe it is?), but check out that impressive East Coast seabreeze front that pushed inland today, seemingly in a line all the way from Jacksonville to Miami.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:32 PM |
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floyd
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http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/FLOYD/track.gif
more worried on this track
| Kimster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:34 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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Colleen, I think you are a magnet this season....
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:35 PM |
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Re: floyd
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what worries me is a split between the two..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:36 PM |
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Re: 5pm Discussion
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18z GFS is out now,,, its even alittle further south then the 12z run. Now its showing a landfall near Melbourne across the state- Ocala then more N after that. I also see after a decent wnw movement the first 24 hours then almost more nw then slowing down due to the exiting weak trough off the S.E. US then turns more again wnw by Friday thru Saturday making a landfall. Soooo many varibles come into play here with the current movement and slowing and then turning wnw more at the end. Next main trough wont affect this to at least Sunday now so the path now is in the strength of the ridge in the near term, then how fast the weakness off the carolinas and GA moves out to push her again wnw. Point is in all this,, 18Z ETA and now GFS sees this slowing then turning wnw Friday.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:38 PM |
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tighter window
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don't think i'll close it up completely yet, but going to narrow my strike window tonight. still expecting a stairstep near the bahamas and a terminal left. think it will come ashore as a 3/4 between daytona and beaufort.. emphasis near brunswick, ga.. moving wnw/nw at the time. the harder recurvature shown in the ncep globals looks a tad too extreme for me (too much ridge strength for nnw movement east of 80w), and much of the rest of the globals are drifting around or painting central florida... like to stay a little right of the consensus as a matter of course. intensity is hard to prog, but follow the idea that it oscillates around 120-130 kt for the next 3 days or so then slowly weakens as it nears the coastline... to around 110-120kt range. system has accelerated a bit more than i expected.. but landfall timeframe still centered on sunday morning, september 5th.
gonna stick to this general idea, until it becomes unfeasible or verifies.
gaston heading out this evening, likely an advisory or three from being declared extratropical.
elsewhere in the basin rather irked that nhc isn't classifying the system nw of the cape verdes (97L).. sheared or not the dvorak rating has risen today to a paired 2.5 and that's tropical storm intensity. since the system is sheared and the vortex partially exposed, it has the obvious qualifications for at least depression status.. but nhc is still feeding us the same line of 'chance to develop'. it's window for classification will close soon.. possibly for a while and potentially for good.. as it encounters the upper wsw jet from the upper low digging in frances wake. it should move w to wnw as a sheared system and do little in the way of further developing for 3-4 days.
another wave has exited and has a large envelope of rotation at the mid-levels.. but is low latitude and convectively mediocre... globals develop it by late in the week.
that's the tropics as august is coming to a close.
HF 2238z31august
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:47 PM |
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Re: floyd
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Frances is not Floyd and is not Andrew. I know a lot of people are trying to compare them, but the conditions surrounding all three storms were very different. Some commonalities, but those are inherent to this time of year. The building high, troughs coming through, etc. This is a storm all its own and we need to treat it as such. And what a beautiful monster! As the setting sun puts the eye into shadow it sends chills down my spine.
Bill
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:47 PM |
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Re: tighter window
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so hank under your window.. miami is clear
| TheElNino |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:51 PM |
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Frances strengthens to a Category 5
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I've been seeing a consistent deep convection (deep red-on the NHC IR) surrounding Frances' eye. She's in store for more rapid deepening taking her to a Category 5 soon, perhaps by late tonight if she maintains the deep convection around her center.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:52 PM |
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Re: tighter window
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under my window. you can decide what it was worth in a few days.
HF 2252z31august
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:03 PM |
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Re: tighter window
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VERY interesting GFS run there, looks to be lining up with this afternoon's more westerly and southern trends. FWIW Frances is moving due west at this time.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:08 PM |
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1945?
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http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1945/index.html
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:19 PM |
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getting stronger ya'll
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For the life of me, I see nothing that indicates all this carolina, georgia, top of florida stuff.
This hurricane will wreak unbelievable havoc on the bahamas. Sure hope those people, when they had the chance, left.
we get it, rick.. miami-mobile, nothing else possible. -HF
| BillD |
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| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:21 PM |
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Re: tighter window
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Kevin,
Agree, this is a shift left again for GFS, and way left of the 00Z run, which had gone far right and east from the previous runs. I hope the models start to settle in tomorrow. And I also agree the track is west, it stair-stepped a little earlier this afternoon, but is still on a west track.
That ULL over the Bahamas looks like it is getting squashed, I am assuming it is going away.
Bill
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:22 PM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:What's the chance of your recomputing the new path/wind field. ...I, and my students have found this an easy way to see the effects of this storm than all of the other charts. The NRL comes next because it shows the wind fields. Even consider it a standing request if yo will.....Thanks in advance
To help those of us (ok… me) who have a hard time visualizing the forecast path, I have created the following image based on HPC 7 day loop: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
Assumptions
1) Frances remains current size/strength
2) Wind envelope(s) based on NHC Advisory 26A
I can re-create these images any time for use here and remain open to suggestions and guidance.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:24 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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Quote:
For the life of me, I see nothing that indicates all this carolina, georgia, top of florida stuff.
This hurricane will wreak unbelievable havoc on the bahamas. Sure hope those people, when they had the chance, left.
we get it, rick.. miami-mobile, nothing else possible. -HF
i am trying not to be an alarmist.. but i agree with you on this one.. Miami better pay attention.. ULL my bonny, this is continuing to the west.. all day i am looking for the north turn... waiting waiting.. the poor bahamas...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:29 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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well, i do agree that it's getting stronger this evening. eye more circular, latest IR show a solid red cdo ring that is also nearly symmetrical. if it's going to make a cat 5 run, it's going to do it soon.
HF 2329z31august
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:34 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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HF, I'm sure you've seen the current NHC discussion (excerpt):
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE FRANCES WILL END UP. DATA FROM THE RECENT
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF
THE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT
OUTLIER...MOVING FRANCES NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR. THE
NOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER
CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND UKMET
HAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR
AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.
The qyestion is; Why do you suppose the NHC is favoring the left side after 72hrs? Is there some admission that it is moving West rapidly and not likely to be able to turn fast enough to follow the GFS or even the UKMET which has been doing a good job so far?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:35 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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First of all, it's y'all, not ya'll. Second, for long time readers and posters, rick has a long and storied history of seeing every storm at a CAT V strike on Mobile. However, for newbies, they might not get the joke and genuinely take the doomsday scenario to heart.
Sure, a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a blue moon, but it's getting to be tired...quite tired.
Is Miami out of the woods...by no means...if it's in the "cone" (NHC forecast error track), then it's in play, and Miami is certainly within the cone.
The NHC has NEVER been that far off in the past several years, and I somehow don't expect that to change over the next five days. Could it track much further west than currently forecasted? I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet a crow sandwich on it (BTW, does anyone have any new recipies...).
As I've been saying (and others) for the past several days, we will not have any landfall certainty (within 100-200) miles until tomorrow at the earliest, so saying Miami CAT V is as good as throwing at a dartboard.
Take rick with a grain of salt. It was really funny at one time, but, in light of the seriousnes of this storm, it's not anymore.
Now, of course, rick is going to come back on and say, "No, No, it's heading west so it has to be Miami...then Mobile". If you live in Miami, you could be in for some serious weather...I just think, as do most rationale posters, it would be from the west side of the eyewall and outward.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:35 PM |
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Ridge
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Now I'm not going to be crazy and say Frances will come to Texas, but I will say that IMO there will have to be a serious weakness in the ridge to shove Frances off her almost due west track. I say forget about the trough(s) because I just don't see them having an impact on her. I'm starting to think that the straites may not be out of the question. Now I'm sure I will be singing a different tune tomorrow but that is how I see it right now.
ShawnS
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:39 PM |
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Re: Ridge
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>>> Now I'm not going to be crazy and say Frances will come to Texas, but I will say that IMO there will have to be a serious weakness in the ridge to shove Frances off her almost due west track.
Actually, you'd need the mother of all strong ridges (not weakening ones) to keep this on a line towards Texas (or wherever you're thinking). Don't discount the trofs either. LOL
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:41 PM |
Re: getting stronger ya'll
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Quote:
First of all, it's y'all, not ya'll. Second, for long time readers and posters, rick has a long and storied history of seeing every storm at a CAT V strike on Mobile. However, for newbies, they might not get the joke and genuinely take the doomsday scenario to heart.
Sure, a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a blue moon, but it's getting to be tired...quite tired.
Is Miami out of the woods...by no means...if it's in the "cone" (NHC forecast error track), then it's in play, and Miami is certainly within the cone.
The NHC has NEVER been that far off in the past several years, and I somehow don't expect that to change over the next five days. Could it track much further west than currently forecasted? I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet a crow sandwich on it (BTW, does anyone have any new recipies...).
As I've been saying (and others) for the past several days, we will not have any landfall certainty (within 100-200) miles until tomorrow at the earliest, so saying Miami CAT V is as good as throwing at a dartboard.
Take rick with a grain of salt. It was really funny at one time, but, in light of the seriousnes of this storm, it's not anymore.
Now, of course, rick is going to come back on and say, "No, No, it's heading west so it has to be Miami...then Mobile". If you live in Miami, you could be in for some serious weather...I just think, as do most rationale posters, it would be from the west side of the eyewall and outward.
well if the forcasts has it up near mid florida and the margin of error can be 200 miles.. miami is not such stretch now is it.. i am no weather expert but i know how far vero beach is from miami...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:43 PM |
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I have the models figured out...
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Basically every evening the models shift back to the south and west - S FL to C FL.... then in the morning when I get up they shift back to the north and east N Fl, GA, SC.... I think this has been going on for several days now... here is the key, once they can finally agree during both the morning and evening runs, then we have a true trend.... so if tomorrow in the morning expect the models to trend back to the north and east.... now if they don't ..... and they are still south and west.....then maybe they'll be on to something.... until then everyone on the east coast is sitting on a time bomb, I'm going to have carpal tunnel in my neck from all this back and forthness.... but the bottom line, this is one storm I want to track from a distance..... absolulely no wish casting from me... and I still am sticking with my Kennedy Space Center hit..... we had some TDY guys at Stennis today all pack up and head back to Kennedy to get the personal affairs in order....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:45 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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This is an old discussion; from 5am this morning NOT 5PM. Please check and don't confuse people who are looking for current info.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:45 PM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:
What's the chance of your recomputing the new path/wind field. ...I, and my students have found this an easy way to see the effects of this storm than all of the other charts. The NRL comes next because it shows the wind fields. Even consider it a standing request if yo will.....Thanks in advance
No trouble. I will update this graphic as NHC changes their forecast. While several models have changed, NHC opted to not change their coordinates until a later Advisory (apparently they want to review a few more runs). Here is the 11am image (ADV27)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:45 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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My THINKING was the furthest west would be central gulf coast. I KNOW SHE IS NOT COMING HERE!!!!!!! It is too late in the season for Texas to get a tropical system unless it is homegrown.
ShawnS
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:45 PM |
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Re: Models
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But there was a different path per NHC Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:47 PM |
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Re: I have the models figured out...
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Yes, this is definitely not the storm to wishcast.
I admit that tropical storms can be exciting and all, some cleanup, no deaths (although, Gaston was another story).
But a hurricane, CAT III+ at landfall, would leave thousands homeless, and more than a dozen dead, with billions of dollars in damage. At this point it's not the question of IF it will hit the Southeast, it's a question of who would it hurt the LEAST if it were to hit.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:50 PM |
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Re: Models
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dude - great stuff for us laymen. Kudo's to you!
Now, if you could throw in storm surge and move Frances to a WPB to Sarasota senario, I'd love to see it.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:51 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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Nope, not a stretch at all. Any prediction of landfall right now would be a SWAG. You can choose your word for S, but I'll use Silly Wild Ass Guess.
Even the NHC doesn't know, don't you think they would be telling us if they did? Has anyone read the recent discussions? There are still a lot of variables and unknowns, and we might not even have a good idea what is going to happen until Thursday. That is where a similarity with Andrew and Floyd comes into play, both of those were cliff hangers up until about two days out.
Bill
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:52 PM |
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Re: I have the models figured out...
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MAX FL WIND 130 KT NE QUAD 2302Z
Huccicane Hunters sent this at 7:07 pm. If somebody already put this up, sorry in advance.
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:52 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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Quote:Quote:
First of all, it's y'all, not ya'll. Second, for long time readers and posters, rick has a long and storied history of seeing every storm at a CAT V strike on Mobile. However, for newbies, they might not get the joke and genuinely take the doomsday scenario to heart.
Sure, a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a blue moon, but it's getting to be tired...quite tired.
Is Miami out of the woods...by no means...if it's in the "cone" (NHC forecast error track), then it's in play, and Miami is certainly within the cone.
The NHC has NEVER been that far off in the past several years, and I somehow don't expect that to change over the next five days. Could it track much further west than currently forecasted? I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet a crow sandwich on it (BTW, does anyone have any new recipies...).
As I've been saying (and others) for the past several days, we will not have any landfall certainty (within 100-200) miles until tomorrow at the earliest, so saying Miami CAT V is as good as throwing at a dartboard.
Take rick with a grain of salt. It was really funny at one time, but, in light of the seriousnes of this storm, it's not anymore.
Now, of course, rick is going to come back on and say, "No, No, it's heading west so it has to be Miami...then Mobile". If you live in Miami, you could be in for some serious weather...I just think, as do most rationale posters, it would be from the west side of the eyewall and outward.
well if the forcasts has it up near mid florida and the margin of error can be 200 miles.. miami is not such stretch now is it.. i am no weather expert but i know how far vero beach is from miami...
trinjabe you are correct. Miami is way in play. If anyone dounts this look at that 84 hour eta and look at the euro and so on and so on and look at the latest gfs coming back west as will the gfdl which is run on gfs. Miami is far from stretch but jacksonville isnt either.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:54 PM |
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Surge map
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I've been looking for SLOSH (sea, lake, overland surges from hurricanes) models, off and on, for an hour or so. this may be one of the better ones.
I'll still try to find ones that show surge for CAT I, II, III etc., but as of yet, no luck.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:55 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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one thing i have learnt on my two days on here... METEROLOGY is like chiropractic medicine...
(no disrespect to the weather men who keep us "prepared"cool site!
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:55 PM |
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easy does it LIphil
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thanks for your nice moderation, LI phil...
I have written nothing that suggests I don't believe this is serious. We hear your opinions, and everyone else's..and I suppose we are not "allowed" to poo-poo them as you are comfortably doing to mine. I called Miami or the keys 2 days ago, and then hooking into the gulf. The high level ridge in the Atlantic is why I made that call...and watching the hurricane kick dead left...as Andrew did.
I am not interested, nor is anyone else, in trashing one another.
what exactly, does being a moderator entail? I'm confused.
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:56 PM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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It's official -- track is now WNW. I would think this would push the projected landfall up a tadbit north, but who knows.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:57 PM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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Quote:
thanks for your nice moderation, LI phil...
I have written nothing that suggests I don't believe this is serious. We hear your opinions, and everyone else's..and I suppose we are not "allowed" to poo-poo them as you are comfortably doing to mine. I called Miami or the keys 2 days ago, and then hooking into the gulf. The high level ridge in the Atlantic is why I made that call...and watching the hurricane kick dead left...as Andrew did.
I am not interested, nor is anyone else, in trashing one another.
what exactly, does being a moderator entail? I'm confused.
LOL... on some chat boards it means you get to subsitute your opinion for another....
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:58 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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Quote:First, I'm quite aware of what time it is, and 2nd, this was in an E-Mail to me from the NHC that came in at 5:30PM today....maybe he said similar things this morning, but this was going 'you've got mail' just moments before I posted the question to HF. I asked HIS opinion as to the NHC's left bias despite the recent model shifts N and E by the here-to-fore 'good guys' oand left outlier models that now show NE bias. Also, please join us by registering.
This is an old discussion; from 5am this morning NOT 5PM. Please check and don't confuse people who are looking for current info.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:58 PM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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I've noticed that you seem to enjoy busting on people...get off it and stay on topic...that's what you preach...y'all...ya'll...who cares, dude...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:01 AM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:Ask 'skeetobite'. He is the one with the program. He posted the 11am info he had, hopefully his source of data will be updated soon. The graphics from NRL, etc., may NOT be the source of his data input to his program.
But there was a different path per NHC Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:03 AM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:
But there was a different path per NHC Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?
Trying not to exceed 5 days in these graphics since the experienced folks indicate anything beyond 3 days is pretty much a guess.
I need at least 2 coordinates and wind speeds (in miles from the center) for each coordinate. With that info, I can plot and image this monster until it dissipates.
SkeetoBite <<< Definitely not a weather guy
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:05 AM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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I have been watching this storm for a couple of days and it has always had a very slight N component all along, even though the NHC kept saying West. It does appear to have a little more North in the track now, but I don't see it as significant, yet.
Bill
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:09 AM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:Possibly you could limit the 5 day period to the Thursday-Sunday based upon the 5pm NHC forecast data? Will your program take info from that source? Thanks for your efforts so far, they really do help 'tell the tale' to a lot of people used to watching the center red line and ignoring the widespread AREA being affected.Quote:
But there was a different path per NHC Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?
Trying not to exceed 5 days in these graphics since the experienced folks indicate anything beyond 3 days is pretty much a guess.
I need at least 2 coordinates and wind speeds (in miles from the center) for each coordinate. With that info, I can plot and image this monster until it dissipates.
SkeetoBite <<< Definitely not a weather guy
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:09 AM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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Ok folks! I know that this is an excitable time and tempers are heating up. However, there will be NO name calling or third grade tantrums allowed on this site. If you feel the need to pull someone's hair, or to give verbal noogies, DON'T! Step away from the site for a while and realize that each and every person who visits this site has the same rights and abilities to voice their opinion as we all do. Clean it up, or we will. I know we don't all see "Eye to Eye", but this is the time to share some good will, not take pot shots.
Just asking everyone to calm down a bit.
Thanks -John
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:10 AM |
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Re: getting stronger ya'll
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No, it's not too late. Unlikely, but not too late. Hurricane Beulah, 1967, the 1919 hurricane, and even the great Galveston Hurrican of 1900 ... all in September, all born outside the GOM.
No, Frances doesn't look like any kind of Texas hit, but another one isn't totaly out of the question...
Quote:
My THINKING was the furthest west would be central gulf coast. I KNOW SHE IS NOT COMING HERE!!!!!!! It is too late in the season for Texas to get a tropical system unless it is homegrown.
ShawnS
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:11 AM |
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gfdl
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Interesting that gfdl has it forecasted to stay off the coast, going up the coast.
Is this the only model that projects this path?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:13 AM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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I agree with John. LI Phil means no harm, his is simply making comments. Please respect every other ones rights and thoughts. Thanks.
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:18 AM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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This is officially going WNW now, correct?
TWC reported it at 7:50, I just want to make sure another source can verify this...
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:19 AM |
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Storm Surge Model for Tampa Bay
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Thanks Phil - just found it.. a Cat4 across us covers the entire barrier island with water (as much as 7 feet deep in some places) and as much as 4 feet well into Tampa. WOW. That doesn't count the surges on the beach or being on the west side of the storm for any length of time.
Yikes..
Here is a storm surge model from NOAA on Tampa Bay. It is a video and you will need a quicktime player.
http://nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/bathytopo/visual/slosh.mov
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:20 AM |
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Back to Topic: Frances
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Looks like she is following the NHC projected path fairly well all day today. See below...you won't see the early plots but they were pretty much on target give or take a couple of stair steps wnw:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:23 AM |
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SSD Numbers
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The Dvorak numbers from SSD are now at 6.5/6.5 or 127kts.
Also of note is that Frances' intensity has been maintained at above these numbers for quite some time. That is, for the past few days it has been 5.5/5.5 or even 5.0/5.5 which should relate to 102kts and 90kts for 5.0, but the actual intensity has been 110-115kts, so it would seem to be even stronger than 127kts at the moment.
In any case, the satellite images have been extremely impressive with a stable and circular eyewall and extremely deep convection unlike earlier wrapping all the way around.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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Ahhhhhh I know we are all nervous.........and edgy. The mood in my house is not a good one either...........the vibe is jacked and we are getting on each other's nerves so I know how that goes.
Phil gives us a place to share info along with Mike.............let's all try to understand each other's angst.
(((((( ))))))))
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: Back to Topic: Frances
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See this model spread....interesting that many models are now moving south toward South FL (YIKES) and Central FL again. (link is from S FL Water Mgmt):
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: Back to Topic: Frances
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The NHC has been on target this year with every hurricane very well, they must be working their butts off!
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: Models
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Also saw that "WNW" movement, though it still seems, and data supports, to be moving west. Movement from 2pm-8pm was .3 degrees north, and 1.3 degrees west. I've seen it "jog" north a few times, but I still think that's because it's feeling its way along that ridge.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:26 AM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:
But there was a different path per NHC Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?
Quote:
Trying not to exceed 5 days in these graphics since the experienced folks indicate anything beyond 3 days is pretty much a guess.
I need at least 2 coordinates and wind speeds (in miles from the center) for each coordinate. With that info, I can plot and image this monster until it dissipates.
SkeetoBite <<< Definitely not a weather guy
Possibly you could limit the 5 day period to the Thursday-Sunday based upon the 5pm NHC forecast data? Will your program take info from that source? Thanks for your efforts so far, they really do help 'tell the tale' to a lot of people used to watching the center red line and ignoring the widespread AREA being affected.
To avoid further diluting this thread, please PM me with your ideas or email here: frances@skeetobite.com
Thanks!
BTW - not all requests or ideas wil be possible, it takes 3 different programs to pull this off!
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:30 AM |
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Re: gfdl
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The Canadian also keeps Frances offshore. The GFS has wavered back and forth and at least in the 0831 00Z run was more or less in agrement with the GFDL, but now has moved back west and south. Most of the others are more in line with the NHC forecast, with the exception of the A98E model which takes Frances hard left across Cuba into the Caribbean.
As I said in another message, I am hoping to see the models settle down and come to a better consensus.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:32 AM |
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Texas
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When I said it was too late for Texas I was more less drawing that conclusion from the past several years and the way the upper air patterns have changed during that time. One of the main things I have noticed is how these cool fronts seem to be aproaching our area earlier and earlier each year. Just this month I believe we have had 5 fronts pass through here and that is not the norm.If you go back the last few years I bet most of the systems that effected the Upper Texas Coast were from either the caribbean or gulf; not from systems crossing the entire atlantic. At this time of year there are too many fronts and troughs that come through for any long distant storms to make it.
ShawnS
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:36 AM |
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Re: floyd
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bill been sayin that for 2 days. the conditions are totally diff. now than when floyd was around. farther south than floyd was. and much deeper trof was around back then.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:36 AM |
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Re: Back to Topic: Frances
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Quote:
See this model spread....interesting that many models are now moving south toward South FL (YIKES) and Central FL again. (link is from S FL Water Mgmt):
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
I created an animation with that (which is now automatically updated) http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?6
The models seem to be trending left. (But it's only been recording since 3PM today or so, it will be more useful tomorrow)
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:37 AM |
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Model Spread
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
What I find unnerving about this model run is the tendency for a number of them to turn the storm more WESTERLY when just offshore of Florida. That differs from the official NHC track of turning even more N.
--Lou
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:37 AM |
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Re: Texas
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Don't the ridges seem to be much larger than normal this year?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:37 AM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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Yes, that was reported in the 8:00 advisory:
FRANCES SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15
MPH...
Sorry, didn't have an english version handy, but that is what it says WNW :-)
Bill
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:40 AM |
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Re: Back to Topic: Frances
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That is VERY cool Mike. I can't wait to see that all day tomorrow...Rec...yeah i notice that too
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 AM |
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A new Forum
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There seems to be a lot of posts here, it's really slowing my computer down when I open this forum, could you open a new storm forum about the same topic?
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:42 AM |
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Re: gfdl
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I was really surprised when I ran the gfdl, but then, I am watching the anticipated path from NHC change twice a day, too.
This would be more interesting if it wasn't such a monster storm. Just moved from Florida about 6 months ago.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:44 AM |
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Re: Back to Topic: Frances
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Mike,
That IS really cool. I've been playing the models in my head, this is a much eaiser to use visual tool. Particularly since the other way requires I remember more than my aging brain can handle
Bill
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:48 AM |
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Re: Back to Topic: Frances
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Interesting plots Justin as two of the models, if extrapolated, could take Frances into the GOM, which we DO NOT want this thing to make a SECOND landfall anywhere.... once will be more than enough...... but they are only models .....
I think Frances is still basically on track, she was expected to begin a WNW motion and so she has... I guess the next big thing to look for is will she maintain current speed or start to slow down... fast mover more southerly, starts to slow may cause her to move more polar...
Phil, as all the moderators have a tough job... even though this is off topic I want to speak my piece, y'all can delete if you want.... But I have seen this board go absolutely crazy during several past years when majors threatened the SE coast, and up until the past couple of hours I though the majority of posts have been just outstanding regarding the posts on Frances.... everyone one contributes, whether you are a pro, or just a novice asking a question, or just a retarded amateur weather freak like myself, we all add to the value of the process... I feel like most of the posters here are my friends, even though I have never met any, and its OK to disagree, that's what makes this board to interesting... .this board play a critical need to many of us that find ourselves in harms way... I know this because during these events when the board goes out of service, I feel like a junkie without a fix .... cudos to Mike for making this available to all of us... nuff said...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:51 AM |
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Re: Back to Topic: Frances
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Quote:Yes, but as you noted earlier, in the morning, left, in the afternoon, right...or was it the other way around,? Anyway, it is a lot like a windshield washer.... when they stop moving, either the storm is over, or we know where NOT to be this weekend
[
The models seem to be trending left. (But it's only been recording since 3PM today or so, it will be more useful tomorrow)
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:52 AM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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They say WNW and I think had it around 280 or 285. True WNW is 292.5 if my memory serves me right is true WNW. So it's somewhere between WNW and W (north of due west somewhere). An interesting graphic tonight is hurricane alley's AMS Run is setting the stage for an East Florida landfall. Someone above mentioned convergence of the models, well it doesn't get any more harmonically converged than that. I'm still not giving up on my southern NC call, but my call is definitely at a 4th down and 35 point. Bottom line here is the destruction that would go along with a strong III or IV landfall in east Florida. And a storm running up on an angle (rather than crossing) is goint to take out more than one area. The situation is getting more grave by the hour. With winds up to 140, weakening is all relative. Suppose she comes down to 125 or whatever (not very reassuring is it?).
Dubious by his absence is Joe B. His last update was at 12:15. He mentioned lack of sleep then, but I would expect him to put something out in the near future. He was originally Outer Banks or more north from last week. He has continuously acknowledged that he is the outlier forecast, but he just doesn't see the setup to foster what is going on. Frankly, I didn't either. But that's a real moot point if the ridge holds or builds stronger overtop.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 AM |
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Models
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Where did this XTRAP model come from and why does it exist? I mean come on this thing has had Frances coming all the way across the gulf, towards Texas, it seems like the entire time. I've never even heard of this model and maybe for good reason.
ShawnS
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 AM |
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Re: Models
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0Z numercals are out, for the most part they show a Cape hit. There does seem to be a move to the WNW from NW late in the period, which follows after Frances slows down a bit. This would open up the whole Florida coast to a direct hit, even above the Cape, which usually benifits from the way the coast falls back from the usual curve that these storms take. By direct hit, I mean one that has little interaction with the coast before the eye actually crosses the coast. When they scrape along the coast, they tend to weaken some. A late WNW move into the coast would be a most unwelcome event to add on to an already tough forecast that the coast above Melbourne finds itself in.
The city of Jacksonville is waiting until tomorrow before they make any plans for moving people around this weekend. They too are waiting for the models to get a little bit more together on where this may go. I'm looking at this from HF's point of view. Any forecast south of me is bad news, because I believe if the NHC is going to miss, they'll miss right (north). I felt better being the prime target, to be honest. A hit as far south as Daytona could be real bad news for N FL, and this could be a slow hit as well, leaving the whole area ia a big mess for hours.
You almost have to live up here to understand what I mean when I say how strange this is to think that the area from Daytona north to the FL/GA boarder might take a Cat 3-4. We have escaped so often, even seeing Jax just as the final point of the 11AM forecast was kind of wild. Hope to skip most of the wild ride Frances is going to give someone, but geeeeezz she's a big girl......
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 AM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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And btw, it's the amount of people sharing the server, not the number of posts, that's slowing you down. Storm2k's been down off and on for 3 days due to similar circumstances.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 AM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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I know it will be a long time before I want to eat spaghetti again after seeing all those runs today.
Are we confident now that the carolinas are not going to get hit?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:01 AM |
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Re: Models
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>>> Where did this XTRAP model come from and why does it exist?
"XTRAP" is not a model. It is showing the direction the storm is currently moving, were it to continue infinitely on it's present course. Just discount it altogether.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:03 AM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:....could be wrong but are you maybe referring to the PROGRAM that our host wrote to 'trap;' the models from the NHC so we can visualize the trends more easily?
Where did this XTRAP model come from and why does it exist? I mean come on this thing has had Frances coming all the way across the gulf, towards Texas, it seems like the entire time. I've never even heard of this model and maybe for good reason
ShawnS
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:05 AM |
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Models
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Wow, had not seen the 18Z HurricaneAlley spaghetti plot. That is a scary sight.
However, many of the models have been flip-flopping (no political jokes Phil!) including key models like the GFS. I still don't think they have a good handle on Frances. Also many of these models "feed" off each other. It is natural for them to track together. Which is why I also pay close attention to the Canadian and UK models (just now learnng about the Euro model) because they are not necessarily influenced by the others. As good as we might be at this, I think we in the US have a lot to learn from the rest of the world.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:07 AM |
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My Bad!!!
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I guess that is why I had never heard of it!!!
Thank You.
ShawnS
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:09 AM |
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Re: easy does it LIphil
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You are correct John...I have relied on this site for several years and look forward to many more...Thanks for all you've provided me and my family.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:12 AM |
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Frances Locally
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Went out and about tonight checking things out. Some homes in the neighborhood have already started putting up shutters. Gas stations had lines of 10 cars plus. Stores packed and lines very long. Supplies dwindling quickly. The good news is that everyone in this area is taking the storm seriously. Local WPB tv stations now doing hurricane updates every 1/2 hour.
My take - Just remember that 90% of all major hurricanes that go through Hebert's box hit Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties down the road as major hurricanes.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:14 AM |
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Re: My Bad!!!
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I posted earlier about a movement back to the wnw after slowing down in the northern bahamas, Its depending on the weakness off the SE US to move out to the NE.Then a bit of a turn wnw before the next trough picks it up on sunday. Landfall looking more likely in WPB-Cape but not ready to say that until after 12z models out on Weds. scottsvb
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:18 AM |
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Re: Frances Locally
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Just got back from Costco. What a zoo.
They were out of water. The D batteries and flashlights were going quick. Most of the canned good were getting low. Of course, there were people in line with meat griping about the panic hitting Florida.
But, as I told the people in the office, now is the time to buy things such as non-perishable food, water and batteries. You'll use them eventually if you buy the things you would normally eat anyway. My shopping list: Water, canned fruit and veggies, soup, rice, pasta, d-batteries, an extra flashlight set, diapers, formula, candle lighters. Did I miss anything?
Propane tank is full from Charley.
Gas line was long, but I think that has more to do with the state tacking on 8 cents of taxes in three hours than with Frances.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:18 AM |
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Re: Frances Locally
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Wxman Richie....wait till the watches and warnings go up for our area....then we will see some action! Btw, does anyone have an idea when South/Central FL coast watches/warnings would be issued? I am trying to figure out a timeline for my shutter hanging party.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:19 AM |
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Re: Frances Locally
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Quote:SAM's here in Orlando just about out of batteries, the gas stations are mostly full of cars, some only have 'premium' left. This may be as much the 8c tax break the state offered through today (August) as preparation for the storm, but it does have the right effect...many cars will be nearer full than empty this time around.
Went out and about tonight checking things out. Some homes in the neighborhood have already started putting up shutters. Gas stations had lines of 10 cars plus. Stores packed and lines very long. Supplies dwindling quickly. The good news is that everyone in this area is taking the storm seriously. Local WPB tv stations now doing hurricane updates every 1/2 hour.
My take - Just remember that 90% of all major hurricanes that go through Hebert's box hit Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties down the road as major hurricanes.
As to the 90%...maybe this one of the 10% that MISS the Dade-PB county area?? For your sake, I hope it is....for my sake, I kinda hope it is the 90% 'cause I'll most surely be homeless on Sunday morning unless I can find the pieces of my trailer
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:21 AM |
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Re: Models
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It seems to me that the LBAR for a few if not more runs has been consisently S.If the ULL is currently weakening and the high is building to the N of Frances we will most likley see the same movement tomorrow morning.That being said I would have to opt out for landfall way S in FL.I would love to this thing heave N I just can't see it happening.I really hope I am wrong.
Oh by the way moderator's done a fine job in keeping the site up and running.
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:26 AM |
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Re: Models
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yup
I just saw that, too
yikes!
Well, anywhere it hits will be bad news...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:29 AM |
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Re: Models
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Strange...just looked at the Models on the WeatherUnderground site, and they are only showing 2 models, BAMM and GFDL. Usually they show several of the others. Any guesses why? I'm speculating they just don't have current models and don't want to confuse the picture further.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:36 AM |
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Wind Swath
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Ricreig...can you post that wind swath graphic showing landfall in Vero Beach heading WNW to NW?
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:39 AM |
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Re: Models
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That's the nice thing about this site: you can find alot of great information on it!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:41 AM |
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Re: Models
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Never mind... they're all there now (the models).. must've been a loading thing.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:45 AM |
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Re: Wind Swath
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Quote:Scroll back to post #22229 in this thread...it is the most recent that shows that path. Skeetobyte originally posted it and in PM to him, he said he'd try to get a current one up, but it would look much the same as post #22229
Ricreig...can you post that wind swath graphic showing landfall in Vero Beach heading WNW to NW?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:48 AM |
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Re: Models
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XTRAP is short for eXTRAPolation. It is a straight line plot of the storm based on its current direction and speed. No forecasting at all on it.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:52 AM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:Yeah...why didn't *I* think of that when I was asked originally....We had been talking about the program that displays trends, but the frams all had the ....XTRAP... line on it and you are right, this is the extension of the current path...where it'd go if it didn't turn at all. Good thinking....
XTRAP is short for eXTRAPolation. It is a straight line plot of the storm based on its current direction and speed. No forecasting at all on it.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 01:54 AM |
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All the models seem to have some credibility
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It seems like every model has a good reason to be doing what it is doing. [Excluding A98E which is so far out to lunch, it will have to call the office and tell the boss it is lost] Not sure there will be a model consensus for another 24 hours. Seem to be so many variables right now. A friend of mine even noted that these runs are laying waste to the whole of the global models across the board on temperature and the like. They really seem to be strungling to latch on to something and stick with it.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM |
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Re: All the models seem to have some credibility
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Maybe that A98E is picking up on something? Not trying to say the storm is going to do what it suggests, but didn't it change wildly from several runs ago?
Watching the water vapor imagery.....did I just see that ULL near FL take a pretty good shove to the SW?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 02:15 AM |
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Re: All the models seem to have some credibility
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something of note that i have seen... the nogaps since 3 days ago keeps movin back to the west ..... and it's still pretty close to other tracks until close to south florida
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 02:18 AM |
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NEW THREAD
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Mike has posted a new thread. All replies should be directed there!