MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:39 PM |
Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
(Click here to read personal reports from the Bahama Islands),
Tropical Depression #9 forms in the East Atlantic has a good chance to become Ivan .... ,moving west toward the Caribbean... Time to watch later.
Next..
The 5PM position of Hurricane Frances remains on track, slightly adjusted right (closer to Melbourne)... however... it bends it back more left to raise the chances of a Gulf of Mexico event as well..
The windspeed is also slightly down and pressure a little up, but i'm thinking it will fluctuate around this intensity for a while.
Here's an important notice from the Melbourne NWS office and Tony Christaldi:
1) Because of the oblique angle at which Frances is expected to approach the coast... emphasis *still* should not be placed on the point of the projected landfall of the cetner. Frances' wind field is very large: Tropical storm force or greater winds ecompass more than 50 thousand square miles. Preperations should be made throughout the watch/warning area assuming a *direct* hit from a major Hurricane.
2) Attempting to extrapolate short term (1 to 3 hour) trochiodal wobbles into a longer term motion is prone to be erroneous... especially given the current forward speed. Which is about 10 MPH less than what Hurricane Charley was moving at landfall.
3) For those looking for Comparisons to Hurricane Floyd. The synoptic patterns between Floyd and Frances are completely different. There is no short wave trough of significant amplitude over or approaching the southeast United States or western Atlantic ocean.
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Melbourne (East Central Florida)
Miami (South Florida)
Key West (Florida Keys)
Tampa Bay (West Central Florida)
Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.
Definitely more to come later...
** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
TD#9 Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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If you had the choice of Lakeland or Kissimmee where would you ride the storm out at. Lakeland is an apartment building, Kissimmee would be a house built in 2001
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Tropical Storm Ivan tomorrow
Frances turned north but the track has been adjusted farther west
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Latest track takes it directly across the state on out into the Gulf of Mexico, instead of a more northerly path up through the state. Winds down to 115mph at landfall (not sure I'm buying that) and it should pass directly over my house before exiting the state a few counties above me.
I think we'll see another track shift again before this is said and done; don't know if they are doing this because of the latest NW movement trends; but I think it would be wise to see what the 11 and 5 am advisories bring us as far as track and intensity.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:01 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Yeah...that new track certainly could become a very scary thin for New Orleans later down the line. I am starting to actually beleive in a future northern GOM event. First off though, all prayers go out to those of you in Florida. This could do much more damage than Charley even if she weakens simply because of the sheer size of the storm and the lasting effects of winds.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:06 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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I'm sorry...they are adjusting the track back and forth and the info came in early from the NHC. They had listed the winds at 115mph on Channel 9; now they changed them to 130mph. Makes more sense now.
Rabbit...I think the reason they are still shifting the track to the west is because they don't expect that NW movement to continue or have a huge impact on the track. If it stalls - as is predicted - when it starts moving again it could be going W/WNW again, and that's the best explanation I can get out of my non-expert-on-weather brain waves. ;-)
I would expect it to change again. And agan. It's like watching a Tennis match. Only the stakes are higher.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:06 PM |
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New Vortex
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New Vortex...pressure slightly higher, winds lower...
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/2007Z
B. 24 DEG 02 MIN N
74 DEG 33 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2626 M
D. 65 KT
E. 318 DEG 067 NM
F. 048 DEG 104 KT
G. 315 DEG 015 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 14 C/ 3101 M
J. 16 C/ 3105 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-W
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF861 1806A FRANCES OB 25
MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 1823Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 312/010NM
FROM FL CNTR
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:09 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Frances now starting to slow its forward speed and I expect it to drop to 5-8 mph durring the night. Tommorow should be interesting day. NHC moved the landfall a bit north at 5pm but I'm not yet convinced of going that far north. The turn w-nw towards Florida may happen sooner than NHC has shown and as slow as Frances will be moving overnight I don't see her that far north when it makes its turn. Stronger easterly winds in the upper level are developing only 75-100 miles north of Frances but will see more tommorow
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:10 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Colleen,
You hit it on the head...the Globals (except GFS) are strengthening the ridge again shortly before and duing landfall and transit, causing a WNW or even W motion...the NHC is finally buying into those tracks.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:11 PM |
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Re: New Vortex
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Oh My, She is getting it back together. Take a look at the deep convection in the southern 1/2 that has come back. WOW
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:18 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Well Frances sure has made up some ground to the north over the last few hours. Moving .7 degrees north and .9 degrees north from 11am to 5pm today. By contrast she moved .3 degrees north and 1.2 degrees west in the same timespan yesterday. However, she also appears to be slowing some which is probably a factor of her interaction with the land and shallower water that she is now around, what appears to be another eyewall movement and her feeling her way along that ridge to the north. In looking at several of the surface models, as well as, upper level winds I did expect a decent jog to the north sometime today and/or tonight. It appeared to me that the trof out to the west of Frances, back over by the Pensacola area and a little west, had maybe weakened the ridge just a little. Enough that she could track further north than she had previously. However, I don't see this becoming a trend as I believe that the ridge will strengthen again and cause her to resume the more WNW motion she has exhibited for a number of days, at least since last Saturday. In fact, just on the latest satellite view she appears to "correct" herself and shift back closer to just north of due west. These wobbles will likely continue up until the time she makes landfall.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:20 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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O.K., I'm going to go ahead and ask. We are talking about the ridge building in again and putting Frances on a more WNW track. What are the chances of the ridge being stronger and pushing her more westerly than wnw meaning she could end up in the central gulf instead of the north central gulf? I know that there is another trough in the pacific nw right now that should come in and pick her up by the first to middle of next week but how far west could she possible get before that?
ShawnS
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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I can see the trof and I can see the ridge building down from canada in this WV Loop.
Is this what is forecast to force the dramatic left turn shown by the models? And is there nothing left of the trof to encourage more northerly movement?
Thanks.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:27 PM |
Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Hey everyone, this is my first time on the board. I'm in Coral Springs, FL, about 15 miles inland from the east coast, just north of Ft. Lauderdale. To those who know about the storm; what are my chances of taking a big hit?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:28 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Quote:
Hey everyone, this is my first time on the board. I'm in Coral Springs, FL, about 15 miles inland from the east coast, just north of Ft. Lauderdale. To those who know about the storm; what are my chances of taking a big hit?
32.78%
Define big hit...it will not be pretty, but you should be out of the worst of it.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:30 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Mike--just one teensy off-topic comment. TD#9 is definitely NOT a fish spinner. 5-day has it in the islands as an 80mph hurricane and one to definitely be watched once we are done with Frances.
Soon to become Ivan the Terrible...and heading west
Just wanted to clarify. Now back to our regularly scheduled nightmare...
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:32 PM |
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another 6 hours....
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and we'll get a handle on this, right?...NOT!
This storm is suprising me too. Thought the wobble meant something when I got on site a few hours ago...and now we are back on a Miami or whatever gig...and on and on..
Does look like Frances is rebuilding again. Plenty of time for the storm to get wicked again...
hang tight everyone...this is gonna be a ride. Anyone know the name of that hapless little island that it went directly over?
san salvador. probably where columbus landed in 1492. -HF
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:34 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Quote:Quote:
Hey everyone, this is my first time on the board. I'm in Coral Springs, FL, about 15 miles inland from the east coast, just north of Ft. Lauderdale. To those who know about the storm; what are my chances of taking a big hit?
32.78%
Define big hit...it will not be pretty, but you should be out of the worst of it.
So is the high pressure system going to force it further west (therefore south) than the latest advisory said? Are there any indications that the high pressure could strengthen enough to stop any significant northern movement, in turn sending it right into South Florida? Is there any chance (not a remote one, but a real chance backed up by evidence) that this could happen?
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:34 PM |
Lower wind speed at landfall?
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Local 6 in Orlando is reporting a projected landfall at Vero with a windspeed of only 105mph. Anybody think this is realistic?
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:35 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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it might have been myiguana. something like that!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:35 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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>>> Anyone know the name of that hapless little island that it went directly over?
San Salvador...it's in the Advisory...
BTW this is a link to current conditions in the Carib...lists all the island names for easy reference!
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:37 PM |
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5pm Advisory
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A little light on facts and info. When does Stewart get back on the clock?
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:37 PM |
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Re: Lower wind speed at landfall?
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Stormhound, Channel 6 is making the same mistake a bunch of folks in the office are. In the NHC discussion, they have the 48 hour location at 90kts and Inland (which usually means its made landfall and is weakening. The discussion stated they believe that Frances will make landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:42 PM |
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New Eye Reformation?
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Looking at the latest loops it looks to me as if we are having another reformation of her eye. The reds on the IR shots are now wrapping around where I think the new eye will eventually be. Let's see what you all think.
ShawnS
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:44 PM |
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Re: Lower wind speed at landfall?
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Quote:
Stormhound, Channel 6 is making the same mistake a bunch of folks in the office are. In the NHC discussion, they have the 48 hour location at 90kts and Inland (which usually means its made landfall and is weakening. The discussion stated they believe that Frances will make landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane.
Thanks Clyde. Major blunder on the part of Local 6.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:47 PM |
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Re: 5pm Advisory
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Anybody get the feeling that as soon as you think you have grasped the idea of where FRANCES is going, then something goes wrong and your back to pulling your hair out? I've gotten that feeling atleast 5 times this week. Its crazy. Anways, the NHC's new track has me even more concerned as they are implying the idea that they believe a second landfall is possible. And Im going to assume that the track in the gulf will be more westerly then what they are showing because there shouldnt be anything around to turn Frances that hard and fast, plus the model guidance I've seen today leads me to believe that. Anybody want this season over with already say I....I !!!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:48 PM |
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Re: Lower wind speed at landfall?
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asked earlier............ if you had the choice of a direct C/L of the eye or an ne quadrant.... which would be safest......
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:52 PM |
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Re: 5pm Advisory
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Actually, at least as far as my thoughts, Frances is well behaved...it's just a behavior I didn't want to see.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:55 PM |
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Re: Lower wind speed at landfall?
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Quote:
asked earlier............ if you had the choice of a direct C/L of the eye or an ne quadrant.... which would be safest......
With a CAT IV? Unless I had NO OPTIONS for leaving, neither one of those two is a very safe choice. If you think there's a chance you'd be in either location, why wouldn't you evac?
| Todd |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:55 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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Maybe this link will help explain the NHC forecast(s)/thinking a little more graphically
https://nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgrid.pl?aor+sfcanal_blend_12z+alltimes
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:57 PM |
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Re: Lower wind speed at landfall?
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Im sorry, I should have stated that I am talking about inland CF South of Clermont or Orlando / Apopka
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 09:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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I wonder if TD9 is what the GFS has coming up near South Florida in about a week?
Bill
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:00 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Quote:
I wonder if TD9 is what the GFS has coming up near South Florida in about a week?
Bill
Yep.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:00 PM |
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Re: Lower wind speed at landfall?
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Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
asked earlier............ if you had the choice of a direct C/L of the eye or an ne quadrant.... which would be safest......
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With a CAT IV? Unless I had NO OPTIONS for leaving, neither one of those two is a very safe choice. If you think there's a chance you'd be in either location, why wouldn't you evac?
Quote:
Im sorry, I should have stated that I am talking about inland CF South of Clermont or Orlando / Apopka
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:02 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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What the hell is going on at 108 hours?
See attachment
| Todd |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:05 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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Sorry Phil...part of yesterday's run was in the group.. I had been waiting for these runs all day .. they just haven't cleared aout everthing
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:07 PM |
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San Salvador....
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In terms of human suffering...for the last 6 hours or so, that little Island has withstood 140 mph sustained winds...and plenty of opportunity to catch 170 mph gusts. What is possibly left of it, I wonder?
| Hurricaned |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:07 PM |
I find the Orlando information confusing!
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I find information regarding Orlando very confusing. If I use the Official Point Forecast from the National Weather Service, it says pretty encouraging things about Orlando:
Saturday - <major snip job> Windy, with a north northeast wind 30 to 35 mph increasing to between 40 and 45 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.
Saturday Night - <major snip job>Windy, with a north northeast wind 45 to 55 mph becoming southeast. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph.
...and yet, when I look at the Hurricane/Tropical Local Statement for Melbourne, it says this - "THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS
MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 140 MPH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS."
Okay, which one to believe??? :?: :?: :?:
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:09 PM |
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Re: I find the Orlando information confusing!
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Quote:
I find information regarding Orlando very confusing. If I use the Official Point Forecast from the National Weather Service, it says pretty encouraging things about Orlando:
Saturday - <major snip job> Windy, with a north northeast wind 30 to 35 mph increasing to between 40 and 45 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.
Saturday Night - <major snip job>Windy, with a north northeast wind 45 to 55 mph becoming southeast. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph.
...and yet, when I look at the Hurricane/Tropical Local Statement for Melbourne, it says this - "THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS
MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 140 MPH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS."
Okay, which one to believe??? :?: :?: :?:
DIG IT !!!! THIS IS WHY I ASK
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:10 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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I'm tired of being wrong!
ShawnS
Heh. Get used to it...happens to me all the time! Like with this one...
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:10 PM |
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Re: I find the Orlando information confusing!
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The national weather service has caps to the wind speeds based on how far the hurricane is out.
Believe the hurricane local statements.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:12 PM |
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Re: I find the Orlando information confusing!
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There is alot of confusing reports out there.
When did we go from this storm hitting with 120knts to 90?
I thought Frances was supposed to strengthen?
I will stay for 90knts but 120 is a bit much.
Can someone explain?
Thanks
| Hurricaned |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:12 PM |
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Re: I find the Orlando information confusing!
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Quote:
The national weather service has caps to the wind speeds based on how far the hurricane is out.
Believe the hurricane local statements.
...but, is the "local" statement including Melbourne coastal information as well? Is that why the difference?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:12 PM |
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Re: 5pm Advisory
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Frances is going exactly the ways she is supposed to.It is us and our technology thats she is not going along with.It is good though because lives are saved because of our guesses,just hope the people who do not get hit understand this time they are lucky.The people in Punta Gorda would gladly trade a miss for what they got.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:16 PM |
Re: I find the Orlando information confusing!
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I am also confused!! I am trying to direct my friend, single mom w/5 kids newbie in w palm beach to a safe destination(kissimmee?) My only source of info is the internet (i live in Cal.) her info sources are very confusing. Is there an internet station for tracking this thing,with specific, accurate, up to date info?
| Todd |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:17 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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I know what you mean .. We'll need to sit and see how it plays out. There are a lot of if's in these runs and they're based on fairly old data but they do give a general feel for the overall picture. These are not cast in stone! Yesterday's runs had it way on the east side.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:18 PM |
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Re: I find the Orlando information confusing!
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Does anything with the government make any sense?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:22 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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(Off topic post removed by moderator)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:26 PM |
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Re: I find the Orlando information confusing!
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Looks like on the latest floatersat. a jog west?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:28 PM |
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Miami, poured for five minutes and sky was blue a minute later
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Everyone has been calm here for the last few hours as they changed the storm direction to the NW. Mind you everyone knows it could turn back...but it was a welcome breathing spell.
Mayfield on TV with Norcross just now said the information they just got back from recon shows the ridge is building in strong in front of the storm and it possibly is slowing down because of that and they are still expecting it to bend back towards the west sometime down the line. When is the question.
Funny because....when it started pouring.. people everywhere on the streets were running like the storm was coming.
A wake up call I think.. saw people putting up shutters finally.
Shelters almost filled and the Home Depot is empty with only customers scrounging around for anything they can get their hands on.
Going out a bit.. relaxing a bit.. while I can.. Will stay up late watching the storm like last night.
Poor San Salvador
Bobbi
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:29 PM |
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Closer... more detail/cities/streets
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New wind map available here:
http://www.skeetobite.com
Local Mets in Tampa calling for 100 mph sustained winds in Lakeland as Frances passes over. Seems like less based on latest NHC forecast.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:29 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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I have a feeling that this is going to continue to weaken (flight winds only 120 now) and hit land as a Cat III
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:31 PM |
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Re: I find the Orlando information confusing!
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They're both right. That larger statement was for the overall area, and there are some locations that could receive those winds. Just not Orlando, a good 75 miles inland as the crow files to the southeast.
The storm, despite having excellent outflow all day, has been gradually weakening. I don't think that's bound to continue, however. A combination of an eyewall replacement cycle along with the disruptive forces of the islands has led to what we've seen today. The eyewall replacement is probably about done, though it remains open on the SW side. The islands are still going to inhibit the inflow as long as the storm moves along the spine of the Bahamas, but shouldn't be enough to lead to further weakening.
Current thinking - a NW jog should last for another 6 hours, then bend back to near WNW (or slightly south of that) towards the coast. The old upper low that has been in advance of the storm has reared it's head again today and has impacted the track just a bit to the north -- not totally unexpected, to tell the truth. It's almost a quasi-Fujiwhara effect, but not quite. However, shortly the storm should begin to round that low and get accelerated slightly to the WNW across Florida. Erin (95) isn't a bad analog for this storm's track, albeit probably slightly more northerly across the state.
Landfall near Ft. Pierce, a bit further north of my position of WPB, is looking pretty good. I'm almost certain there will be a second landfall on the Gulf coast, but the models disagree as to where and how strong. Personally, just off of experience, I would suggest somewhere in the Apalachicola area - between Panacea and Ft. Walton Beach, only so large because of the orientation of the coastline - as a high end tropical storm or minimal hurricane. In any case, most of Florida is going to receive a LOT of rain from this storm...5-15 inches in parts.
BTW, one last tidbit. The outflow from Howard in the EPac is getting shunted somewhat around the high currently steering Frances. The heat released as a result of the outflow is serving to pump up the ridge a bit more, something that should keep Frances going a bit further south. It is also worth noting that the 12z models AGAIN did not initialize the height field correctly: the NOGAPS, previously the best performer, was the worst, whereas the GFS and Eta (et al) were only slightly better. They were still 20-30m too low - and for the NOGAPS, almost 40m in spots.
That's where we sit now...more later if events warrant.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:31 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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are you saying this one is a name they retire
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:31 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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I'm afraid Frances may go as far as Pensacola or Mobile now. Too much uncertainty! Seems like every night the track moves West.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:31 PM |
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|
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Re: another 6 hours....
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yes!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:33 PM |
|
NHC Update...
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 600 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2004
AT 512PM EDT...2112Z...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE CENTER POSITION OF FRANCES HAD WOBBLED BACK TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE FORWARD MOTION MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS A LONG TERM MOTION OR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES...SOME ERRATIC MOTION WITH SEVERAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
FORECASTER STEWART
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:35 PM |
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frances get stuck
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for about six hours frances' eyewall convection has been lopsided, and i'm sure the storm has weakened. even without recon, the satelite presentation isn't category four anymore. it's 2/3 right now. rather large fluctuation in intensity, no? something i hadn't really seriously considered (perhaps because its occurence is often inexplicable).. that the storm may in fact 'magically' weaken as it closes on the coast.. could be in play. right now it looks like a stream of subsidence got into the eyewall and is killing the convection ring in places.. in others it is enhanced to compensate.. net result being an irregular, filled eye and a less intense storm.
this strange illogic, that strong hurricanes tend to weaken as they approach landfall, has blocked several storms from being catastrophic in recent years (floyd, lili, isabel to name a few). the official line on frances may take her down a notch later this evening.. but of course the storm has 36-48 hours to regain its composure.
so, if any of you people are out there stressing yourselves to death over the uncertainty with this system, enjoy the new stuff. assuming the worst is the safest path, but take solace in the fact that the worst has a way of evaporating when it comes to hurricanes.
t.d. 9 in the picture now, and the initial prog taking it due west at high speed looks a bit fishy to me. my thought is that more poleward movement will happen as it passes wrinkles in the upper ridge.. and that it moves more poleward anyway due to strength. that 70kt intensity shown has modesty written all over it, if the storm can deepen without accelerating to insane speeds.
don't forget 97L. it's slowed and a bit of ridging will build over it from the east, knock the shear back to where it can consolidate. i've argued that it already HAS developed, but now i'm going to go with it will develop as per nhc classification.. and move north and northeast out into the north atlantic.
HF 2234z02september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:36 PM |
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Re: NHC Update...
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So maybe I wasn't so crazy after all.
ShawnS
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:37 PM |
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Re: I find the Orlando information confusing!
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You could try a website of one of the local radio stations. The NWS information is actually very good, but you have to understand the context. The info for MLB was for the coast, not inland.
As far as the 90 kt, vs 120 kt, nothing changed, that was a mis-interpretation of the forecast, the 90 kt was inland, not landfall.
I understand your frustration, but the reality is they don't know for sure where this storm is going to go. They have a good idea, and they are trying very hard to explain, but it isn't easy. No place in Florida is safe, that is why they have Hurricane Warnings up along most of the east coast. As I said a couple of times last night, if you want safe, go to Kansas. But it is probably too late for that. There are over a million people in mandatory evacuation zones along the east coast of Florida all looking for a "safe" place to go, it will not be easy to leave at this point.
Bill
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:38 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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I've been keeping an eye on the GOES-12 wind shear map and it looks to me like Frances could have some shear coming up from Cuba out of the SW. Right now it looks like it would continue all the way until Frances got to just a hair ENE of Nassau. Or am I seeing things?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:40 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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Just in,Kerry says no hurricanes in Florida during his term,sites Andrew,Charles,Frances,all during Bush terms.Dan Rather does not know which storm to cover,the one in Florida or New York.Do not mean to make lite of the situation,just trying to take the edge off the people under the gun.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:40 PM |
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Re: NHC Update...
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I am in Pompano Beach now. I had to evacuate today. I have been so busy preparing that I haven't been able to stay abreast of the posts. Can someone fill me in on the storm? The local TV has it's usual HYPE and HYSTERIA! I think I picked up that they still don't know where the storm is gonna go! I am experiencing rain right now. I want to stay online as long as I can
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:41 PM |
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Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets
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Skeeto, thanks for all the work! Great graphics. They are opening a shelter here in Tallahassee for all the evacuees tonight at 7 PM at the local Mormon church. No hotel rooms to be had. Looks like we may feel the effects of her second landfall and be in the NE quadrant. I'm expecting 60-85 MPH winds and gusts. Nothing I can't ride out.................UNLESS she strengthens quickly and I'm GONE. Too many 75-100 ft pines around my house to stay and risk that. Good luck to all. It's been a wild ride and fixing to get alot wilder.
| francois |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:42 PM |
Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets
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I have a question for you. Is this map accurate according to the National Weather service ? It seems that Orlando won't be hitted. Am I correct?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:42 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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Looks like the eye is starting to open up again as per IR. May start to strengthen again, but then again maybe not.
ShawnS
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:44 PM |
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Sats...
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Latest sats show the eye redeveloping...along with a 1 mb (extrap) drop in pressure from the Vortex...could be the beginning of her getting reorganized.
| Hurricaned |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:45 PM |
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Re: Miami, poured for five minutes and sky was blue a minute later
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Quote:
Everyone has been calm here for the last few hours as they changed the storm direction to the NW. Mind you everyone knows it could turn back...but it was a welcome breathing spell.
Ummmmmmmm,,,,,,,,, what does this mean in English for Orlando?
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:49 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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I think you are right Jason. She looks to be on the upswing again. I'm thinking winds here in Tallahassee of 60-85 MPH based on the current track. Realistic? Keep up the great work!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:49 PM |
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Orlando outlook.
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Orlando area should prepare for winds sustained at 120MPH gusting to 140MPH.
That's not to say that it will happen, but it very well could.
Doombot!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:50 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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Could that be a new eye forming the north,a small clear spot on sat floater Jason?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:51 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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Could that be a new eye forming on the north,a small clear spot on sat floater Jason?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:52 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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did i just hear Lyons say, Miami clear in about 2 hours
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SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:53 PM |
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Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets
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Quote:
I have a question for you. Is this map accurate according to the National Weather service ? It seems that Orlando won't be hitted. Am I correct?
These maps are accurate to the exact coordinates (we may be off by about 100 meters here or there) given by NHC for the forecast they cover.
The wind fields are based on the dimensions (stats) of Frances at the time of the advisory. Example: Hurricane force winds extending 80 miles and Tropical Storm force winds extending 185 miles. In short, they are exactly to scale based on the data given.
We received guidance this morning on more accurately diminishing the "cone" for the wind field to better match the affect of the storm moving over land.
Note that the accuracy of these maps in relation to the forecast has nothing to do with the accuracy of the forecast!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:55 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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I'm not sure what floater you are referring to, but the 2232Z GOES-12 image clearly shows a warm spot which is likely a (re)developing eye.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:57 PM |
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Track
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Not sure what to believe. Looks like it's weakening and then like it's strengthening. Storm moves right and track goes left. This is crazy, one minute it looks better for S. FL. and the next it looks worse. Well, preparations are made, time to sit down, follow the storm and enjoy some Jack Daniels.
| dhcp |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:57 PM |
Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!!
|
Hello. I have veiwed this site for quite awhile now, although, this is my first time posting here.. first, allow me to thank the founders and participants of this website for making such an honest effort into predicting the movement of these horrendous storms...
I live in New Port Richey (Pasco County) and I am fed up with FEMA, local emergency management agencies, NOAA, NHC, and most local meterologists.. I'm not sure how many of you live within the Tampa Bay area but let me tell you, when Hurriicane Charley failed to make landfall anywhere within it, it's incredible how disappointed the media agencies were.. they failed to realize they were the ones that HYPED the projected path into the Tampa area.. as you all know, Tampa Bay has been spared a direct hit by a major hurricane for years.. as soon as the local stations who pushed and pressed and swore it was coming this way were wrong, they were quick to defend themselves while expressing disappointment.. an almost impossible position to assume.. one of their replies was something along the lines of "these are just computer models.. computers like humans can be wrong" .. well no sh*t.. the problem isn't that the computer model was wrong.. the problem is, these people WANTED and HOPED the storm hit here.. its all about television network.. sad they value ratings and excitement over peoples safety, lives, and our beautiful communities that would have been merely destroyed, especially in Pinellas since it is surronded by 3 bodies of water..
That storm did not drop an ounce of rain in Pinellas or Pasco Counties nor did it really damper Hillsborough or Hernando Counties.. now the day after the storm we were hit hard.. but the entire bay area was shutdown completely for almost 2 full days.. unnecessary evacuations were ordered.. people were panicing and chaos was resident.. then when Charley made landfall down south basically where it was ORIGINALLY forecasted to cross the east coast, people were really angry.. I know I was..
it's hard to appreciate the efforts of real meterologists today because most of them are all about ratings and the coverage.. they feel important that thousands of people are relying on what they're forecasting and know their opinion is valued.. its ashame that such important judgement can be so clouded by a camera and the thrill of natural disaster waiting to happen..
Over the past two seasons I"ve learned to appreciate websites that are run and owned by enthusiasts... its obvious you guys do not want to intentionally misrepresent data or opinion but want to offer a clear and accurate path as to where the storm is headed.. I really appreciate that, very much..
schools here in Pinellas and Pasco are closed tomorrow.. don't get me wrong but we're overpreparing.. it's my belief if this storm crosses through the bay area that by the time it does, it will be within the category 1 - category 2 stage on the S/S scale.. furthermore, it is clearly obvious it is not going to make landfall tomorrow never the less pose any kind of safety risk to Pasco or Pinellas County Friday or Friday night.. Pinellas has by far the absolute worst emergency management service in existence.. sure its a small and densley populated county.. but to close schools a day before it hits hundreds of miles away on the other coast?
absolutely ridiculous and unacceptable.. Walmart here on US Highway 19 in Port Richey will be closed as of midnight Friday and they are boarding up their stores.. that is foolish.. these storms have caused nothing but chaos and panic and the media is directly responsible.. NOAA and the weather channel doesn't help..
just keep it real guys, like you always have.. adversity in a situation like this is probably the most logical and level headed approach one can have.. people were buying up water today left & right locally.. guys, I LIVE IN NEW PORT RICHEY.. NOT PALM BEACH COUNTY or the liking.. its never a bad thing to be fully supplied but jesus.. give me a break.. some of the severe weather storms we have in the summertime are of more intesity.. outrageous, completely outrageous.. the east coast clearly has a reason to fear and worry... the west coast has a reason to be alert.... thats about it..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM |
Re: Sats...
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I hope so....cause I won't be far behind it
| francois |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM |
Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets
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Thanks a lot for your answer....... Will you post an other map after the 11pm forecast from the National Weather Service?
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:01 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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Quote:\
I'm not sure what floater you are referring to, but the 2232Z GOES-12 image clearly shows a warm spot which is likely a (re)developing eye.
It also looks like its back to a more westerly track. So I guess that it was big wobble today .
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:05 PM |
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Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!!
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You can replace supplies, not lives,I think its great we can watch this,these people do the best they can ,if they are wrong consider yourself lucky,If they are right thank god you had a chance to prepare,people a hundred years ago thought a thunderstorm was coming and maybe died thinking!
| mp3reed |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:08 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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I have family in Ormond, New Smyrna, and Cocoa. Should they evacuate? I hope they are tuned in. I know John and Mike are. Cuz call me.
| Hurricaned |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:15 PM |
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Dumb newbie question about the new map and "red" and "blue" areas
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The red area shows the hurricane winds. The blue area shows the tropical storm/winds.
The red area is shown to be a decreasing cone. I assume that's because once it hits land, it looses strength and consequently gets smaller?
The map shows the winds for the red area at certain times and locations. What are the winds for the blue area at certain times and locations?
| Karen |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:15 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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Thanks, spook. I needed that!
I'm finishing up securing the house where I live (I'm not the owner, thankfully; I'm pretty sure this roof is gonna go!) before joining my family in Malabar tomorrow. I almost wish I could stay put, because they live closer to the projected location of landfall than I do. But I guess 30 miles won't make much difference in the grand scheme of things, and I'd rather be with my loved ones than be alone when this thing hits.Y'all, please keep Brevard county in your thoughts and prayers!
| Cathy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:20 PM |
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Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!!
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Schools are frequently closed in uneffected areas (or less effected areas) to provide shelter for folks evauating from other counties.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:23 PM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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Good for you karen,been through several storms in La.,and misses,always liked the misses better,nothing worse than no elect.,water and cleaning up and whineing kids after the excitement wears off!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:27 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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Just wondering what effect the gulf stream will have on Frances. Specifically in terms of steering (northward?) and strengthening. Thanks
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:30 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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Yep. Sure looks like the eye is re-opening at nearly the same position as the 4PM advisory. I would not be surprised to see little to no movement on this upcoming 7PM advisory.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:33 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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MY GUESS ABOUT THE GULFSTREAM -- IT BLOWS UP TO 150-160 JUST BEFORE LANDFALL
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:38 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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we live in jacksonville would you say we are out of the woods ???
i still feel like daytona landfall ???
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:41 PM |
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Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!!
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Let me ask you a question, did the temp drop there before the turn. I met a man in Port Charlot who claims a front came through and the temp dropped but no one seemed to notice.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:42 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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my guess as well, in addition to northerly push for a Cape Carnival land fall.
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:44 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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im also in jax local mets here are saying not to let our guard down yet things can change in a second,i think key here is which way it will decide to track through the state,as of the 5 pm update we were told to expect tropical storm conditions,but again to not let our guard down yet.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:45 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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The Gulf Stream will not impact the track of Frances. It may have an impact on its intensity, depending on interactions with the Bahamas and other factors, but should at least allow the storm to maintain itself.
Today, I just think the inflow's gotten all messed up with those islands and Cuba to the south and west. The outflow is excellent and the air is no drier around the storm than it has been -- and with strong storms, due to subsidence compensating for the large rising motion in the storm itself, you'd expect quite a bit of dry air immediately around the storm.
The Southwest Florida area and Florida Keys have probably been spared the worst, though parts of them may still see tropical storm (40-50mph) winds before all is said and done. The Jacksonville and Daytona Beach areas are by no means out of the woods, especially for tropical storm force winds, but a direct landfall is likely to be further south.
Interesting note -- during the 4pm conference call from the NHC, Jacksonville NWS asked if they wanted to hoist tropical storm watches for the rest of the Florida east coast (as had apparently been previously discussed). The NHC (Avila) said no, that the forward motion and track of the storm did not warrant it at this time. He also said that he prefers hurricane watches (and likely t.s. warnings) in that situation as opposed to tropical storm watches. Just a little aside to the topic here.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:47 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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Why do call cat 5 typhoons super,and no thurricanes super hurricanes?Also dothey have tornados in the eastern hemis.?never hear much news about tornados there.
spook, friendly moderator advice: this post belongs in another forum. if it had a sentence w/o errors i'd be less compelled to remark, but we don't want lazy/offtopic posts clogging the board. -HF
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:50 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Noon today my area in Highlands County was going to be in the direct path, now more north. Was to be sustained high winds, now it's weaker. This back and forth waiting game is driving me crazy. I respect Mother Nature and know that when she wants something, she'll come get it. We are as prepared as we will get, but is anyone else feeling almost bored and complacent at this point? It's a bad feeling...
| Hurricaned |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:50 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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Quote:
...but a direct landfall is likely to be further south.
Clark, I live in Orlando, how much further south are you predicting?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:51 PM |
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Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!!
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There are no fronts currently in the Florida region. A drop in temperature may be realized, however, with an outflow boundary from a thunderstorm complex. This happens when cool air rushes fastly out of a thunderstorm and spreads out in one/all directions, leading to an increase in wind speed and a drop in temperature. This was likely due to the east coast seabreeze (another example of something that is not a true front but can produce a slight cooling effect) and thunderstorms associated with it and not anything with Frances.
It should be noted that the 5-minute rapid scan visible imagery of Frances did show an outflow boundary earlier today with the storm itself. Such a boundary is usually a sign of weakening convection and an overall weakening of the storm -- this may have been either a result of or a factor into the weakening of the storm earlier today. It raced out of the west side of the storm towards the west & Florida, but was only really detecable with high-resolution satellite.
One last bit: if you use that same highres visible imagery (link in the first post of the thread) and look at the eastern bands of Frances over time, you'll see these little undulations that appear to radiate outward but remain stationary. These are examples of atmospheric phenomena called gravity waves. They are nothing to worry about and lead moreso to minor internal undulations in the pressure and wind fields, but are cool to look at.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:53 PM |
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Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!!
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Clark, tell Travis that I am pissed at him. He needs to check his e-mail.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:56 PM |
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Curfews
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Most counties along the treasure coast(Martin, St.Lucie, Indian River) now have 8 pm to 7 am curfews and no alcohol sales after 8 pm. News also said that 85% of Florida's 14 million people could expect a hurricane warning or watch at sometime during this storm. WOW!!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:57 PM |
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Re: Sats...
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Hurricaned -- probably just a bit south of the NHC forecast. See the graphic with the first post in this thread and shift it ever so slightly south, and you have my thinking. I'm also not too sure about the sharp turn it is forecast to take again once over water; I think a more gradual turn is more likely with this storm. A track similar to Erin 95, with a more southerly route across the peninsula and a slightly further east landfall in the panhandle, is along the lines of what I'm thinking right now.
Latest recon found 948mb pressure, but also an eye that is open SW-N and 20mi. in diameter. Surprised the winds are still as high as they are, but I think part of it is that the NHC wants to cover themselves in case the storm reintensifies in the next day or so. San Salvador only reported 120mph winds, meaning sustained winds are probably now in that ballpark, but if the NHC went down there now, it'd get a few people needlessly off-guard in Florida.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:57 PM |
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Re: 5pm Advisory
|
I
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:58 PM |
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Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!!
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being a lurker here for a couple of day it has realy kept me informed
i havent seen hanks latest track i saw last night he was still feeling like a more northern course and does any one know what joe bastardi thinks about current track
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:01 AM |
|
|
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Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets
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Quote:
Thanks a lot for your answer....... Will you post an other map after the 11pm forecast from the National Weather Service?
The wind maps will be updated as significant changes in the forecast coordinates are released. We'll be watching all advisories until Frances is no longer a hurricane.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:02 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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Notice NHC went back to a WNW track in the latest advisory. Miami is not out of the woods yet. Also, appears to be regaining a little strength. Only time will tell, but I would bet on a Cat 4 minimum at land fall.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:07 AM |
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Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!!
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WeatherNLU -- done and done. You should have something in the next few minutes. He got it, just forgot to reply.
spook -- we have what you could call "Super" hurricanes, with winds over 150mph, but with the Saffir-Simpson scale in wide use in this part of the world, there's no need for yet another designation.
Also, tornadoes do occur throughout the world. Like you won't hear about many of our tornadoes in other parts of the world, you don't hear about theirs here. However, the US does have more than most other nations, likely a result of favorable synoptic (large-scale) weather patterns.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:08 AM |
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|
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Re: Dumb newbie question about the new map and "red" and "blue" areas
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Quote:
The red area shows the hurricane winds. The blue area shows the tropical storm/winds.
The red area is shown to be a decreasing cone. I assume that's because once it hits land, it looses strength and consequently gets smaller?
The map shows the winds for the red area at certain times and locations. What are the winds for the blue area at certain times and locations?
The winds in the blue areas are not forcast in intensity from the invisibe line between the hurricane force winds and the outer edge of the storm. Since I'm not a weather guy, I guess the answer is 'hey man; this thing is spinning, it has long arms full of all kinds of weather imaginable and winds will vary in strength and direction depending where you are inrelation to the center storm' (or something like that)
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:11 AM |
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|
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Re: 5pm Advisory
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Well Frances passed 75W at around 24.3N(maybe just a tad south even) which was further south than the approximate forecast from a few days ago of it crossing at about 25n/75w. To me this means that the forecasts for an SC/GA/N FL hit decrease the further Frances moves to the west. I know that anything can happen, but I'm still thinking this will landfall somewhere between Miami and Vero(remember you're not out of the "clear" until it's passed north of you).
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:17 AM |
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Re: 5pm Advisory
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However iin this case, even if it passes you by, it could come back South. The chance is slim, but if the ridge builds strong and other things fall in place, a WSW track is not out of the question.
In other words, on this one, don't let your guard down.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!!
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i think it was wed there was a model i think gfdl that showed a storm following frances i guess they were right ???
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: Dumb newbie question about the new map and "red" and "blue" areas
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Skeetobite.... I to am in Lakeland. What are your thoughts as to how severe this will be? I enjoy yuor posts. We still have debris in our yards from Charlie here...Advise please
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:28 AM |
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Re: 5pm Advisory
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I.E.Betsy 1965,moved north,then sw,then west then nothwest,blamed on seeding of storms back then,but as time has shown,these things follow least resistance!
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:30 AM |
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Re: Dumb newbie question about the new map and "red" and "blue" areas
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I just don't understand this weakening. Every time I think she may be getting back together, something happens again. I wonder if the mountains of East Cuba are disrupting the inflow/outflow. She seems too far away for this, but it is all I can come up with.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:33 AM |
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|
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Updates
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According to our local tv station that just spoke to the hurricane center, the track will shift northward toward Melbourne at 11 pm. Also, here is the latest from my friend Thomas:
Once again I post this email due to numerous requests asking my opinion on our current tropical troubles.
Barely CAT 4 Frances wobbled right then back to the left due to eye wall reformation this afternoon. She is moving slower at around 9-10 mph on a WNW heading. Visible satellite imagery still shows a shrouded eye but I expect normal eyewall re-development in the next 12-18 hours. On the NHC Amateur Radio Net on 14.325 kc I'm hearing weather reports of sustained winds of in excess of 100 mph in the Bahama Islands.
Though we are still in for some circulation friction, track wobble, eyewall reformation, as well as strength fluctuation during the next 24 hours, I see no reason to change my forecasted landfall of between Palm Beach and Vero Beach as a strong CAT 4 on Saturday afternoon. A good storm chaser location will be the Hobe Sound-Port St. Lucie window BUT BE SAFE. As Frances tracks WNW towards the northern Tampa Bay area after landfall, I expect inland east central Florida to see a long period of 111-155 mph winds (CAT 3-4) and inland west central Florida 75-110 mph winds (CAT 1-2). I would also expect 10-20" of rainfall and numerous tornadoes. With most of the central peninsula saturated from yet another very wet summer I would expect extensive inland flooding problems. A second landfall of a CAT 1-2 Frances is also possible in the Florida panhandle or Mobile, AL.
Last but not least I do lower the chances of a Ft. Lauderdale-Miami landfall from 50% to 20% and a NW-N track turn missing Florida to the east from 1% to 20%.
Last but not least we now have tropical depression #7 east of the Windward Islands. Looking at satellite imagery it's already T.S. Ivan. My first impression of Ivan is of a track south of the Greater Antilles through the Caribbean Sea and a CAT 5 threat.
My .02 for today.
Routine disclaimer. As I've officially retired from space and atmospheric weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is lower, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
| Karen |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:40 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Karen
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:50 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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if Hurricane Frances stalls when it gets on land, what is everyone predicting with the rainfall amounts?ive heard of as much 20 inches if it does stall
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:50 AM |
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Lakeland taking down street lights...
|
Wife and I went out for dinner tonight, noticed an odd thing we've never seen before in recent memory: work crews were scouring every major intersection and taking down all but 1 redlight for each direction of traffic. Darnest thing I've ever seen. Pull up to a redlight, and there's only 1 light hanging off the lines. Every intersection on the south side of town that we saw (around Shepherd Rd. area of town).
Guess that they're solving two problems at once: 1) get rid of excess projectiles in case of potential 100+mph winds, 2) get a healthy supply of replacement lights if there are badly hit areas that lose all of their signal lights.
Just a really eerie thing to see the work crews dismantling the lights. Makes you realize they aren't kidding about this. Heck, they didn't even do this for Charley, back when they were thinking Charley could plow into us directly....
Londovir
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:51 AM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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its not weak 140 mph, winds
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:51 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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Quote:
Notice NHC went back to a WNW track in the latest advisory. Miami is not out of the woods yet. Also, appears to be regaining a little strength. Only time will tell, but I would bet on a Cat 4 minimum at land fall.
looks stalled to me
| RevRandy |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:54 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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From a Novice perspective....
Watching the water vapor loop, it appears that Frances skirted North of the Bahamas. Is this True? If so, does this move her more Northerly. Also, from the west, I see what I would call a front moving in and what appears to be an area of shear in the GOM. What effect/time would this have on Frances? Also, trying to watch the ridge above her in the same loop, doesn't it bulge north to some degree? Could she force her way north?
I know, novice, but I live near Charleston and would like to see Frances dissolve.
nah, modeling is grouped on east florida.. looks like we're in the clear further up the coast. not likely that's going to change this late in the game.-HF
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:54 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Hi there... strong feeder bands keep coming through.
Was at the ocean a bit. Really pretty mild between squalls. Still far away. Someone noted for it to feel that strong being so far away said something.
Most of the Beach areas are boarded up and inland some houses have boarded.
Watching the loop. Coverage 24 hours.
Worries me that the high looks to be building in on NW side of the storm on wv and Mayfield keeps mentioning it in Miami in interviews on different channels. Hard to get a feel for what is really going on.
Great maps, btw.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:56 AM |
Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
|
Hey, Karen!
Feel exactly the same way. Walked outside and it was quiet, except for the screeching sound of saws biting into wood. At least I'm further up (Ormond Beach and no, I'm not getting complacent!) but I'm wishing that this thing would hurry up and get over!
And then, there's Ivan ... I wonder if we should even bother to take the wood down on Sunday ...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:56 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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anybody expecting this to go cat 5?if it doesnt what do you think?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:56 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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It has definitely slowed down to a crawl. Not sure about stalled. I feel very sorry for those islands right around the center at this point, they are getting hammered.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:57 AM |
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Re: Updates
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any advice on whether to go to clearwater as extended family wants us to do or stay put in orlando. we figure middle of the night traffic wont be as much a gridlock as daytime. I have young kids that went through Charley and we got pretty bad roof damage then(roofers replaced 80% with tar paper for now), so they are very scared while family in clearwater got nothing. I'm just scared we'll go from the pot to the fire....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:57 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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what maps are you talking about?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:59 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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Completely and totally off topic.....UW Badger?!?!?! You rock!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:01 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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First the excitement of prepartions,then the wait,then the storm,then the aftermath ,then back to the realworld!
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:05 AM |
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Re: Updates
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I don't think anyone can say whether either location is safer. With 2 million+ people evacuating the east coast, you will likely find that traffic will be bad at all times of the day and night. Here in Miami they are emphasizing to find a place to evac to within the county and not try to leave South Florida.
If it were me I would be talking to friends and neighbors close by to try and find a safer structure to move to, if necessary.
Bill
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:07 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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I beg you all tonight to be as realistic in your estimates of intensity forecasts as possible. Please we do not need any exaggerations at this point. Those of us in harm's way need to know the true picture so that we neither over react or under react. If you have true knowledge and experience, this is the time to share it.(I recognize the professionals when I hear one, but I don;t always recognize the pretenders those who make up weather jargon as they go along. I am fairly smart, but I am clinging to everyone's opinion to help me make the best decision I can make for myself and my husband who is in his 70's and will take some managing under the best of circumstances. I have been at work all day and I am trying to catch up as best I can without asking any repetitive questions. But I do have one about the graphic. It shows Lakeland towards the end of the cone of hurricane winds. My question based on what is known now, is how long is Lakeland expected to experience these winds since the hurricane's winds are some what flowing like an oscillating fan. ? An estimate is really appreciated and I am not holding anyone to any exact numbers. Thanks sincerely.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:08 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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IR ch2 shows that Frances definitely has reverted to a much more westerly course...the eye has clouded over, and the configuration of the system is changing to accomodate this more westerly trend....So Florida is not out of the woods, in my opinion...intesity should hold for now...it looks like it is cycling some.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:10 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Lived and rented in FL for nearly 17 years and this was the first year that I bought renter's insurance. Isn't that some crap? Freaks the heck out of me!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:11 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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latest sat.pic shows a larger eye,west jog?
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:14 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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Jim C, from the TWC, just down the road from me. Never thought I would see him reporting live.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:15 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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Can you post a link for the IR ch2?
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:18 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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For what it's worth, Im watching the CBS 4 on line coverage and they have been talking to store owners and reporters through the Bahamas. Right now their wind radar is showing that Frances is whipping Cat Island now... And just as they went to Max Mayfield at NHC talking with Bryan Norcross, the feed got all screwy.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:18 AM |
Re: Sats...
|
I can't tell if she is moving at all on the Floater. Not good and if it stalls what next. I'm in Hollywood Fl. I don't think I'm going to get a direct hit but if she stalls it could wait for the High to rebuild and move her farther west. I sure hope that scenario doesn't come true but it's a thought.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:19 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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Iam old fashioned and like to interpret observable data.
I continue to be impressed at the pressure falls in places like Marathon, Key West, and Naples....Marathon is 29.87; KW is 29.88, as is Naples, Miami. Opa Locka: and Ft.L. 29.87
Ft. P 29.91; FtMy29.91; SRQ 29.92 VB 29.93
Lower pressures further south and west? Hmmm!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:19 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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I have a question regarding the 120 mi per hour wind speed recorded in san salvador. Since the island is very small and only a small portion of the storm passed over it, could the island have experienced the less intense side of the hurricane? If the northeast quadrant of the storm had passed over the island would they have experienced winds closer to 140 miles per hour?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:20 AM |
|
Definite west jog IMO
|
Looking at both the IR and WV loops sure looks like a west jog to me.... eye not clear but basic eye wall discernable and noticable jog to the west of system evident during latest review of available GOES loops....
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:21 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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Quote:
Completely and totally off topic.....UW Badger?!?!?! You rock!
and you roll
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:24 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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ATWC.org...click on loops...click on NOAA and have fun
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:25 AM |
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Old Met Vet Nash Roberts
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old school New Orleans vet Nash Roberts, a legend in this time, always used surrounding area observable pressure data as a measuring stick to determine potential storm movement and direction... he wore out a many of black markers in this process..... you would really expect this thing to move to the wnw or n of due west around this strong ridge.... maybe that is the beginning...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:26 AM |
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main board content
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time to throw this out:
some off topic posts starting to show up on this thread, and the end result of too much of that is generally that posting privilidges are cut to people who aren't registered. which sucks, since a good number of unregs make very insightful posts. the admin guys are burdened enough keeping the site up in this heavy-traffic period, they don't need to worry with folks who clutter the main board.. don't push it.
if your post consists of a couple of sloppy sentences, information that isn't suited for this board (several forums are nearly idling elsewhere on the site) or pedantically obvious information, it probably doesn't belong here.. this board is for current events discussion/analysis, with leeway for other critical information, or questions that are generally addressed.. it shouldn't be thought of as a personal chat room.
i'll PM regs who stretch the rules, and edit directions onto unreg posts with questionable content. that's where we are now.
HF 0125z03september
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:28 AM |
|
8:43 vortex message
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Didn't see this posted, apologize if it's a dupe...
URNT12 KNHC 030043
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0043Z
B. 24 DEG 17 MIN N
75 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2654 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 324 DEG 77 KT
G. 236 DEG 009 NM
H. 948 MB
I. 11 C/ 3048 M
J. 18 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-NW
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1 / 2 NM
P. AF985 2006A FRANCES OB 14
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NW QUAD 2325Z.
Interesting that they only found a max fl wind of 98 kt....did they not look hard enough? That's only around 112mph or so....would seem to be a lot less than we've seen before, as ground level winds are less, right? Weird storm continues to be weird....
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:28 AM |
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|
Reports from the Bahamas
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Some reports of wind gusts to 175 (not confirmed) but 35' waves are confirmed! Holy 5h!+!
I'm not sure how that will translate to surge (will try to find out) but that can't be good.
Even up here, we're supposed to have 10'->12' waves by Sunday/Monday. Normally they're 1'->3. You do the math.
Questions you guys might not have the time to answer or research? Throw 'em out...I may not have the computer prowess of Skeeter & Mike (who you guys owe BIG TIME), but I can pretty much find out anything you might need to know in a short period of time...google & me...we rock.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:29 AM |
|
Re: Sats...
|
Quote:
I beg you all tonight to be as realistic in your estimates of intensity forecasts as possible. Please we do not need any exaggerations at this point. ... My question based on what is known now, is how long is Lakeland expected to experience these winds since the hurricane's winds are some what flowing like an oscillating fan. ? An estimate is really appreciated and I am not holding anyone to any exact numbers. Thanks sincerely.
I couldn't agree more with all the hype around here. Seems that everyone wants to share in the limelight! People in Tampa are boarding up their homes! That's not going to keep any trees from falling onto the roofs and doing some serious damage. There's a big difference between a major hurricane hitting coastal areas with a surge of water and winds in excess of 120 mph, and a diminishing hurricane moving inland producing flooding rains, tornados, and strong gusts of wind that topple trees, etc. Coastal areas are demolished - but damage to inland areas is far more sporadic, depending more upon vegetation, structural integrity, etc.
Keep in mind that the diameter of hurricane force winds is estimated to be 80 miles across when it hits the coast, but the diameter and intensity of the winds will diminish as the storm moves inland (beyond 80 miles). The highest winds will be found in the forward right quadrant of the storm, relative to the storm's movement. How everyone fares depends upon the track that Frances wants to take. Only time will tell, unfortunately. Fortunately, we do have NHC with the best tools available to guestimate where and when.
There has got to be a better way to respond to these warnings in the future, though, without everyone getting into a panic.
Just my .02.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:32 AM |
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|
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Re: Reports from the Bahamas
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According to some of the reports coming in from the Bahamas 145-155mph winds are the standard, especially on Cat Island. ON CBS 4 they talked to this one lady who owns a grocery store there and you could barely hear her over the winds howling on the phone.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:33 AM |
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Re: Sats...
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But Lake Worth is 29.89, and that is not exactly south.
Bill
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:33 AM |
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|
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Re: 8:43 vortex message
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Quote:
Interesting that they only found a max fl wind of 98 kt....did they not look hard enough? That's only around 112mph or so....would seem to be a lot less than we've seen before, as ground level winds are less, right? Weird storm continues to be weird....
Strange for sure, but just because they only found a 98KT flight wind, doesn't mean a lot. They probably just missed the strongest winds. I think it's down some, maybe 125, but not that down.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:41 AM |
|
Really Starting To Wrap Up!
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Frances seems to be really tightening up. Alot of deep convection around the center, which is wound up pretty good right now.
ShawnS
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:43 AM |
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Re: Really Starting To Wrap Up!
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Thanks, but that's not what we wanted to hear. A large dose of shear, or Diegel would work for most folks.
Diegel is not to be confused with Dynagel!
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:45 AM |
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Re: 8:43 vortex message
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Max wind report was in the northwest quad. they probably are higher in the northeast quad they just haven't sampled there yet.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:45 AM |
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|
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Re: Reports from the Bahamas
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Quote:
Some reports of wind gusts to 175 (not confirmed) but 35' waves are confirmed!
I read somewhere today (or heard in some report) that the Bahamas don't get much storm surge because of ocean depth around islands. But it would make sense that they would still be susceptible to increased (extreme) surf.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:51 AM |
|
Re: Reports from the Bahamas
|
I forgot to mention that I can't find any motion to it. I guess because the eye is covered with convection so it's hard to tell.
ShawnS
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:54 AM |
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|
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Frances
|
It definitely looks as though Frances is back on a W/NW course, and it wasn't just a "wobble".
Question: Steve Lyons mentioned something today at 5 or 6 about dry sinking air coming in which might inhibit the strength of Frances. It was about where the subtropical high/ridge is. I just looked at the WV loop, and to my somewhat trained eye, it looks as though that dry slot is not as dry as it was and he was hoping it would be. It looks like it's filling back in again.
Does anyone else see what I see?
Could this be the cause of the eye changing? Or is it just recycling (again)?
And yes...I heard SL say that Miami would be out of the clear in 2 hours about 4 hours ago. I don't know why he said that...maybe he was thinking this NW track would last longer than it actually did.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:00 AM |
|
Re: Frances
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I would guess still WNW.
ShawnS
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:01 AM |
|
|
Re: Frances
|
Quote:
It definitely looks as though Frances is back on a W/NW course, and it wasn't just a "wobble".
Check out the Storm Floater 2 IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
I sure don't see the storm turning back toward the W at all...looks to be continuing that slow NW motion.
As for intensity..the convection is definitely on the increase.
--Lou
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:05 AM |
|
Re: Frances
|
Hi Colleen --
Typically around these storms, you'll see a lot of dry air. As I mentioned in either a previous post or another thread, there is a lot of rising motion inside the core of the hurricane. However, to keep the atmosphere in balance, there must be an equal amount of sinking motion outside of the core of the storm. Some of this is found in the eye, whereas the rest is found outside the storm.
Thus, oftentimes when looking at water vapor with powerful hurricanes, you will see a lot of dry air around the storm. This can even appear to move towards the storm at times. However, it rarely impacts the strength of the storm as it is a natural by-product of the storm itself. Yes, it is true that all instability (like storms) is designed to restore stability, and that over time,a storm will fill (weaken) on it's own, but the impact of this dry air towards causing that isn't a very big one.
A note about the storm for the board --
The overall symmetry of the storm has improved over the past couple of hours. The storm has resumed a more WNW path, as the NHC expected in their 4pm conference call. I've learned that trying to interpret wobbles over water is a fool's errand -- it usually only leads to you to misjudge what is really going on with the storm. It usually takes a couple-few hours of sustained "wobbling" to suggest that a direction has changed. Though, as we've learned, a little wobble can make a big difference; see Charley for a prime example.
Give the storm another 6 hours and it might start to get its act together once again. It's nearing the longer islands of the Bahamas, but moving slowly. If anything, I think the slower motion - despite interaction with land - could help restrengthen the storm as a result of more consistant inflow patterns (even if they are being affected by land). I don't expect a lot of restrengthening - and I use that term as I expect the winds to be more in the cat. 3 range at 11pm - but some is possible. Let's not go wild with the cat 5 or dissipation posts now; neither is very likely to happen. Near the status quo through landfall is about where we should be looking.
Things are still looking primed for a secondary landfall in the Florida panhandle somewhere, but we have another day or two to figure the particulars of that out. Only recently have the models begun to agree on a east coast landfall location; let's see what happens in the next day or so before going any further than that.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:06 AM |
|
Re: Frances
|
Here's a link to a nice map labeling all the
Bahamian islands ...
As mentioned above, it's going over Cat Island right now, barely south of the latest NHC track.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:29 AM |
|
|
Re: Frances
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Damage Reports coming in from Bahamas via a.m. radio cell phone reports. I'll post them in the "Disaster Forum".
Long and Cat Islands extensive Damage, no word from San Salvador. Bahamian Govt. calling this a National Disaster, hoping for help from U.S. but doubt it might be coming due to Frances likely strike on FL.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:30 AM |
|
Re: Frances
|
These wobbles are driving me nuts. One time I think it's going one way and a few frames later it looks like it is going another way.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
|
Mike, the circles in your graphic appear to be much too small. In fact are they based on diameter instead of radius? Clearly the 185 mile circle should be several times larger than the 80 mile circle, but it is not. What's up?
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:34 AM |
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Winds down at 11pm
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Winds down to 135 mph at 11pm Advisory...now looking at a Cat 3 at landfall.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:36 AM |
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|
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Re: Winds down at 11pm
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Hurricane center located near 24.5n 75.4w at 03/0300z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 9 kt
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:39 AM |
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Re: Winds down at 11pm
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definately a weakening trend now
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:44 AM |
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Re: Frances
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A quick note about evacuations. I had business in Ft. Myers today. On the ride home tonight there was a steady stream of westbound traffic along State Road 80. However gasoline was scarce all the way from Ft. Myers to Lake Placid. I probably passed 30-40 gas stations and about 75% were out of gas. The ones that did have gas had long lines.
The supply will get even thinner in the hours before Frances hits. I hate to think what it's going to be like after the storm passes and there's no electricity for days.
If you've been thinking of evacuating and haven't done so yet, think about how far you're going to get on the gas that's in your tank now.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:45 AM |
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Re: Winds down at 11pm
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Well appears some shear has given Frances a more ragged a appearence compared to previous days. But shear tendency is on the decline thus expect better conditions over northern Bahama islands,although don't believe it will go away totally but conditions should improve some and unfortunately this will also be over and near gulf stream.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:45 AM |
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Re: Winds down at 11pm
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>>> Winds down to 135 mph at 11pm Advisory
That's great news. Still a CAT IV, but just barely, and forecast to drop to a III tomorrow. As beautiful and scary as these monsters can be, I pray for a drop to a II before landfall, but that doesn't appear likely.
Personally, I think Frances is nearing the end of her eyewall replacement cycle, and will regain IV status tomorrow, but since what I think usually results in the opposite, maybe I should root for a V, then it'll become a II...never going to root for a CAT V, especially one that would threaten Mobile Bay.
Vigilance is the key...watching up from here more than 1,000 it's hard for me to fathom the emotions going on down there, but if you guys can try to get some good sleep tonight...do it. Tomorrow is going to be absolutely insane. (Humming Tom Petty, "the waiting is the hardest part")...actually since HOPEFULLY everyone has already completed their preps, it's almost like...let's get this over with. Maybe not, but those that haven't better RUSH to completion and get the hell to higher ground/shelters/another state.
Been getting knocked off the site a lot so I imagine the traffic is incredible...Mike has been doing a super job and is probably eliminating every possible thing he can to keep the site up.
I reiterate from earlier (as long as I can access CFHC), if anyone has a question or concern, if I can provide a FACTUAL/REALISTIC answer (not some wishcasting jingo) I will. Pose 'em. If I can find you what you're looking for I will...as I said...me & google...perfect together.
Peace for now.
| JaxBeachMan |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:48 AM |
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Re: Winds down at 11pm
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What do you think the chances are of Frances turning a little north and hitting St Augustine/Jacksonville? Is evacuation still a possibility?
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:49 AM |
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Re: Winds down at 11pm- correction
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Sorry folks, better than that...winds are down to 125, not 135 as my earlier post stated
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danielw
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:50 AM |
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Re: Models
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Looks like the A98E model is contaminated again. Tracks to near Birmingham and then SW to the mouth of the MS river!, over 24 hours.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:54 AM |
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Re: Winds down at 11pm
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>>> What do you think the chances are of Frances turning a little north and hitting St Augustine/Jacksonville? Is evacuation still a possibility?
I don't know if this question(s) was directed towards me...one thing I am absolutely NOT qualified to do is to make predictions on where the storm is going or whether or not to evacuate. You need to listen to your local NWS for that and abide by what they say. If you are under a mandatory evac order...well...go...even if it's only to a local shelter. I've heard that those not told to evac should stay in their residences for fear of clogging the already overcongested highways...so that's all I'm going to say on that.
When I said I could answer questions, I meant more about storm surge maps (if I can find them) current conditions, storm reports, that type of stuff. I cannot, and will not offer any storm predictions. (other than crow eating guesses...not to be confused with the real deal). Listen to the NWS, they've done this before...they're pretty good, believe it or not.
Godspeed...
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:05 AM |
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Re: Winds down at 11pm
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As for Jacksonville, refer to latest bulletin ...
W PALM BEACH FL 13 8 1 1 23
FT PIERCE FL 5 14 2 1 22
COCOA BEACH FL 1 14 4 2 21
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 7 9 4 20
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 7 8 16
There are a number of reasons to believe Jacksonville (among other places) is "relatively safe" from a direct hit from Frances at it's current intensity. Stay alert!
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:14 AM |
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Re: Winds down at 11pm
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In North Orlando,
Last night I was very worried.
Tonight I'm not concerned as much.
What I thnk I'm seeing is a dying Frances who will
have weakening winds and of course lots of rain as she comes ashore near Jensen Beach and moves over Lakeland toward the gulf.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:15 AM |
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Re: Winds down at 11pm- correction
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I thought this got posted, apparantly not:
According to the advisory, the winds are at 135mph, moving WNW at 10mph. This storm is still a Cat 4.
Anyone have any ideas on what will happen to intensity when it crosses the Gulfstream? I still think she's going to be a well organized storm before making landfall. And I'm not "hoping" for it, as I'm in the general direction of her eye. J
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:18 AM |
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NEW THREAD!
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Mike posted a new thread...all replies should be directed there. Thanks!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:32 AM |
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Re: another 6 hours....
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Quote:Listen to *us* talk...ONLY a Cat III. When was the last time we could *hope* for *only* a Cat-III to hit a highly populated state in the middle of a holiday weekend? That just goes to show you how gigantic this storm actually is, how tremendous its' potentilal to kill, injure and destroy lives and propery. Yes Rabbit, I too hope it is ONLY a Cat-III and that Frances dies a quick death. Let it die a quick death by drowing at sea before it can reach our shores, before it can ruin more lives in our fine country and the great state of Florida in particular.
I have a feeling that this is going to continue to weaken (flight winds only 120 now) and hit land as a Cat III
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:40 AM |
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Re: NHC Update...
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Quote:*That* pretty well sums it up, we do NOT know what it is going to do or who it will affect. Every time we *think* we know, it changes again, but whatever happens, time is getting nearer to the time when all speculation will end I, for one, will be joining you in leaving my home, such as it is, and letting nature take its' course. Will you and I be homelesss Sunday, or just face repairs? We don't know but we're going to find out very soon. Let's hope for the best, preparae ourselves for the worst and know whichever way it turns out that some things are just beyond the power of us weak and mortal humans.
I am in Pompano Beach now. I had to evacuate today. I have been so busy preparing that I haven't been able to stay abreast of the posts. Can someone fill me in on the storm? The local TV has it's usual HYPE and HYSTERIA! I think I picked up that they still don't know where the storm is gonna go! I am experiencing rain right now. I want to stay online as long as I can
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:51 AM |
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Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets
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Quote:No, yolu are not correct. Orlando and most of the state will feel the effects of Frances. Even if the storm goes poof and disappears instantly, at this moment, it already has affected virtually the whole state. Millions of people have had to evacuate their homes, Many millions have worried, spent money on batteries, put up shutters, taped windows, worried, bought food that won't rot that they usually wouldn't touch with a stick, worried, planned, bought gas, worried, stood in interminable lines for bottles of water...well, you get the idea. A direct HIT on Orlando seems less likely if yo are referring to the eye itself, but we WILL see at least a Charley or perhaps worse, and *Don't* forget, that line in the forecast is JUST A GUESS by the NHC...it is ONLY a FORECAST and that *could* and probably will change. For missions in and around Orlando, it is HOPE, something to smile about and make ourselves smile just a second. We hope it is right and fear for our friends and neighbors that used to be in the clear that may well take our place in the hottest of seats in our stead. Orlando will be hit, probably not as bad as it could have been, but it will be hit, maybe not the eye, but by wind and rain that will likely cause more damage, more lines, more shortages, and many hot, muggy DARK, and sleepless nights without air conditioning. But, on the gright side, we have the *hope* that it *could* have been worse....
I have a question for you. Is this map accurate according to the National Weather service ? It seems that Orlando won't be hitted. Am I correct?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:56 AM |
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NEW THREAD!!!
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Richard,
You are an excellent poster, but Mike has had a new thread up for like two hours. Please please post there! Thanks!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:14 AM |
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Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets
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Quote:Skeetobite, I hope you can get the NHC to release forecast maps depiciting the detail and information at a glance as well as you do it. As long as it they continue to release 'postage stamp' maps with 12 point lines representing the path, people will continue to both ask 'so am I affected?' and think of a hurricane hundres of miles across as a point not much bigger than their back yard.Quote:
Thanks a lot for your answer....... Will you post an other map after the 11pm forecast from the National Weather Service?
The wind maps will be updated as significant changes in the forecast coordinates are released. We'll be watching all advisories until Frances is no longer a hurricane.
Thanks for doing this, for your efforts on our behalf, and for the attitude that profit would be nice, but this is NOT the time, it time for someone, someone to think like you do, a job that needs to be done and then *does* it. Kind of like the people that created and maintain this site....not for the money it *could* make if commercialized, but for the satisfaction of providing a NEEDED SERVICE. My hat is off to you (in fact, Charley blew it off and if you find it, I live at ....)
Thanks for a job well done!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:19 PM |
Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Hi !
I am here in Yauco, Puerto Rico.
We just missed Frances and are looking out for Ivan.
I have family in Florida and am worried . Send any info available.
Thanks