MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 12:54 PM |
Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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4:00PM
Recon reporting pressure dropping again which confirms that the weakening phase is over. Unfortunately back down to 959 mb
2:30PM
Storm pressure is up higher, going through bit of a weakening trend, may weaken a little more before it stabilizes. Still a category 3.
Do not focus on one point, track errors may be large.
Thanks skeetobite again.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Ivan has formed east of the Caribbean Islands. More to come on it later.
Hurricane Frances, still a category 3 system, is being disrupted a bit this morning, from slight shear that has formed from the southwest. This is some relief to the Bahama islands, some of which have been ravaged so far.
Reminder this is just a guide, don't be fixatted ont he point of landfall.
The good news is that a large system like Frances can take a longer time to recover from distruptions like these, but the bad news is that the waters on the far side of the Bahamas are very warm from the Gulf Stream, add the sloward forward motion into the equation and it could recoup its strength again.
There will most likely be more surprises like this as well. It's not over yet. The east coast of Florida has prepared for the most part excellently for the storm, and the chance for a strong landfall is most definitely still there. I hope it does not, but although it could dip to Category 2 a bit, I think Frances will have enough time to recover before landfalling in Florida. Shear likely will help keep the recovery phase down until just before landfall, which is good news.
More to come during the day.
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay (West Central Florida)Long Range Radar Loop
[url=http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/wxstatement.php?t=HLS&l=JAX]
Jacksonville (North Florida)[/url] - Long Range Radar Loop
Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.
Definitely more to come later...
** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.
Event RelatedLinks
Miami Radar Long Range loop (Note the Miami NWS Radar hardware is having issues and may be down)
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
TD#9 Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:08 PM |
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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YEP. There is some shear but the big issue is dry air in the upper levels. A little si of relief that hopefuly will keep frances in check. :?:
| Kruz |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:15 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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still looks like it will exit FL right over my house
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:31 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Yes I saw on the sfwmd site yesterday a model that showed the system now known s Ivan splitting Yucatan/Cuba into the so. GOM by the next weekend...oh happy day!
On to Frances: Frances is nearly stationary! BUT the ridge now exiting NC coast is moving steadly ESE and will force Frances to the wNW trac predicted by the NHC...Also the shear is lessening and outflow seems to be returnig to the W anSW portions of the storm...more symmetrical configuration beginng to reappear...good convection N of center...
Look for re-emergence of eye feature soon and return to the trac...
FYI Barometers continue relatively lower in the N Dade Broward and Palm Beach County areas
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:37 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Yes, watching the barometers here in Ft. Laud. I must say...it is a rather nice day except for the occational breeze from the NE. All prepared and shuttered up down here! I don't recall having this much time to prepare for a storm.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:37 PM |
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Models
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The models I just looked at here bring the storm in a little farther north than NHC track indicates, they remain on the south side of most of the models at the point where the center crosses the coast. Wonder if they may bring there track a little more to the north toward Melbourne.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:38 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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The last time Frances weakened, they thought it would go back to Cat IV in hours, just like they do now
there are three differences, however:
There is more shear right now, there is some very dry air wrapping into the hurricane, and it is starting to feel the influence of land
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:46 PM |
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Doug check out the Miami long range radar loop
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From what I can see, and I know I'm looking at the upper levels of the system and not the LLC per se from this far out... but it sure hints of a center of rotation almost running parallel to the island of Eleuthera, the nothern part of the dog leg island that Frances has been pounding... IF this is the center of the system, looks to be moving around 290-300 degrees... only a medium confidence level at best with this evaluation.... here is the link, run it at fast speed....
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:46 PM |
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Frances and Ivan
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I still think this storm turns due west because of the high pressure blocking its path northward. Flooding concerns becoming a real threat with slow motion expected. Bring the winds, not the flooding. At least I have insurance for the winds. Local stations already telling people to leave their shutters up for the possibility of Ivan next weekend. They say only remove necessary ones for fresh air or emergency exits. Remember all of you who thought this was a slow season about 5-6 weeks ago. You can really eat your crow now. Looks like I will be one of the first ones to see rainbands early this afternoon. My weather station is up and running, hopefully the power will stay on. Anyone outside the impact area that would like to PM me with their phone number, I will gladly call you to post my weather station info., should I lose power and can't link or post it. Thanks.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:48 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Rabbit,
Are you still on the ship with JB on a northward turn up the coast to SC? I'm curious what he has to say this morning...
0-> Chris <-0
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:54 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Finally got some good sleep last night after seeing Frances weaken a bit, down to 120-125mph. Still powerful however. I'm still seeing shear coming out of the WSW from a high just south of central Cuba. The shear doesn't seem to be as strong as it did yesterday which could lead to some restrengthening(see attachment). I actually believed that if the storm came to a slow crawl this would be a somewhat worse scenario for Port St Lucie south. My reasoning being that Frances would continue to track a bit more west than north, pulling it closer and closer to the SE coast of Florida. Then the ridge builds in, Frances increases her forward speed a bit and tracks WNW(or maybe just a bit north of due west) again like she had been doing all week.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:54 PM |
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Ivan will be a big hurricane
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Looking at the sat pics the whole diameter of Ivan is very large and I fear it will be very strong maybe another major.I am also worried because it wont be a fish for the islands so the vigil from Puerto Rico commenses.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:55 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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FYI made a hardware change this morning that should make the site much more stable today. (knock on wood)
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 01:56 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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very unsure of movement at the moment--could be anywhere between West Palm Beach and Charleston
Pressure up to 959 and it could be downgraded to 110 at 11
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:06 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Agent B: Do you have any reason to believe that there is a possiblity that flager and daytona beaches may lift the evaculation status any time today? Thanks Tammy
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:11 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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I dont think that they will downgrade anyone until this hurricane is past it. Miami is still under the warnings and it is past them already. The NHC will be very cautious.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:13 PM |
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Re: Doug check out the Miami long range radar loop
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THANKS FRANK: I BOOKMARKED THAT SITE FOR THIS EVENT, AND I AGREE THAT IS THE CENTER BUT I THINK IT IS MOVING SLOWLY WNW RIGHT TOWARD WPB...HARD TO TELL FROM THIS OR THE SAT PICS WE SEE.
I STLILL SEE SIGNS OF REGENERATION OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AND LESS INFLUENCE OF THE DRY AIR...SLOWLY RE GROUPING ITSELF...IMO
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:13 PM |
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Dear Friends, I found this website when I was searching the web for info. I own a home in Jupiter and live in Dallas. Hopelessly far away, unable to secure the property, and from what I understand - impossibole to find labor and supplies even if I was there. Just a brief comment: For the most part this site is a wonderful clearinghouse of pics, images and noaa and nws info. My criticism? No one here knows what the hell they are talking about. Don't be offended.. because apparently either do the so-called "pro's" - weathermen and meteorologists who post here all day. Your doom and gloom forecasts took weeks and months off this reader's life - and while we still may not kow what's to come - I think you should evaluate your own prognostic skills before posting with such certainty in the future. "I'm sure it will head back to the WNW shortly" - "It looks like this is only temporary and will restrengthen to a CAT 4 maybe a weak CAT 5." At this hour, these predictions are wrong and wronger - and to borrow from the movie, the people who posted them are dumb and dumber. Stick to the facts, please.
Sorry to hear your house is going to be leveled. Read the site disclaimer before you make such an assinine comment.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:20 PM |
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C40
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Of particular interest to me on the latest recon report was the 40 mile eye, open to the SW and NE. I believe that whether or not Frances is able to contract that eye today will be very telling on what intensity we have at landfall. It is possible, though not probable, that the pressure has risen partially owing another eyewall replacement cycle--as well as the shear that has developed.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:21 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Glasserin if that is your opinion about this site then stick to the NHC website and information. I use these sites to discuss these weather events....not to make decisions about property or even let the site get me excited/anxious about storms...I let the NHC get me excited about them...they are the pros...(and some on here are pros as well) However, on these sites its is ALL unofficial. If you enjoy discussing hurricanes then you will like this site...and all the crappy forecasts...lol
| Cathy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:24 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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To: GlasserinD
If you want only the facts go to the NHC site. The value of this site is the infomed opinions of many are posted here. The reader must realize that these folks are providing real time thoughts based on their level of expertise. I, for one appreciate all who post (even you) and do not want only "the facts" -
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:24 PM |
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Re: C40
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is it me or is the storm stationary at the moment?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:26 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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THIS SITE IS LIKE FOX NEWS : WE REPORT WHAT WE THINK WE SEE, YOU DECIDE WHAT TO BELIEVE.
LOTS OF WHAT IS WRITTEN HERE PRECEDES BY HOURS SOMETIMES WHAT THE NHC EVENTUALLY PUBLISHES...THEY SEE IT TOO BUT BEING CAUTIOUS DON'T PUBLICALLY DISCUSS IT. MANY HERE ARE SKILLFUL ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE SHORT TERM WITH SOME ACCURACY.
FOR EXAMPLE THE NHC PUBLICALLY IS DISCUSSING THE RIDGE COMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE STORM...HENCE THEY ARE KEEPING IT IN A LAND FALL UNFORTNATELY RIGHT OVER THE MARTIN ST.LUCIE COUNTY AREA...
WHAT WE KNOW IS AS THAT RIDGE EMERGES AND MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PATH OF THE STORM...NOBODY EXCEPT THE SCIENTISTS CAN SAY HOW MUCH THIS INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY BE...BUT VISUALLY NOW THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL DEVIATE FROM THE OFFICIAL TRAC.
IT IS AS FOOLISH TO WISHCAST THAT THE STORM WILL DEVIATE TOTALLY AWAY FROM THE STATE AS IT IS TO SPECULATE THAT IT WILL RESULT IN THE WORST. JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE HERE WRITES SOMETHING YOU DON'T LIKE DON'T CRITICISE THAT PERSON OR DEMEAN THE PERSON'S ABILITY FOR THAT ALONE. THEY MAY BE RIGHT.
THIS SITE IS FOR FUN..AND OFTEN GOOD INFORMATION...USE IT IN THAT SPIRIT AND ENJOY,OR NOT AS YOU WISH.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:27 PM |
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Re: C40
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never mind..you can see the center on miami long range radar....looks like WNW to NW..on track? (of course as soon as I link this site it will be overloaded)
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:27 PM |
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Re: C40
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Quote:
is it me or is the storm stationary at the moment?
I expect movt to be around 5mph on the next adv. Looks like it's putting on the breaks..
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:29 PM |
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Frances changing direction
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When they slow down, they change direction. As indicated by the national hurricane center, and anyone in the know, to guess on the strength of a hurricane is just that...a guess. They still don't understand enough about hurricanes to "see" why and when and how a hurricane jumps from cat 3 to 5.
So...anyone who thinks this weakening trend means we are out of the woods...better think again. I remember when hurricane Frederic rambled through the Caribbean..hitting all the land it could...and wobbled into the gulf as a tropical storm. Well, it finished as a strong 3 into Mobile, in 1979.
This storm is stalling a bit, and will enter warmer waters. The real interesting thing we can be sure of...is that we can't be sure of anything.
I have seen them die out at this stage, and restrengthen....
so if someone posts that they think it will get back to a cat 5, and others are offended...then those offended need to watch Mary Poppins or something like that....
the reality, is that anything is possible, and this is a forum designed for hobbiests...who's opinions are varied and worth what all of our opinions are....next to nothing...
In all of this, if we all learn more about these fascinating systems...well, then, that is the point. For by learning more, we then can take wiser action....(like evacuating half of Florida?)
| Hurricaned |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:29 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Quote:
THIS SITE IS LIKE FOX NEWS : WE REPORT WHAT WE THINK WE SEE, YOU DECIDE WHAT TO BELIEVE.
LOTS OF WHAT IS WRITTEN HERE PRECEDES BY HOURS SOMETIMES WHAT THE NHC EVENTUALLY PUBLISHES...THEY SEE IT TOO BUT BEING CAUTIOUS DON'T PUBLICALLY DISCUSS IT. MANY HERE ARE SKILLFUL ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE SHORT TERM WITH SOME ACCURACY.
FOR EXAMPLE THE NHC PUBLICALLY IS DISCUSSING THE RIDGE COMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE STORM...HENCE THEY ARE KEEPING IT IN A LAND FALL UNFORTNATELY RIGHT OVER THE MARTIN ST.LUCIE COUNTY AREA...
WHAT WE KNOW IS AS THAT RIDGE EMERGES AND MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PATH OF THE STORM...NOBODY EXCEPT THE SCIENTISTS CAN SAY HOW MUCH THIS INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY BE...BUT VISUALLY NOW THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL DEVIATE FROM THE OFFICIAL TRAC.
IT IS AS FOOLISH TO WISHCAST THAT THE STORM WILL DEVIATE TOTALLY AWAY FROM THE STATE AS IT IS TO SPECULATE THAT IT WILL RESULT IN THE WORST. JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE HERE WRITES SOMETHING YOU DON'T LIKE DON'T CRITICISE THAT PERSON OR DEMEAN THE PERSON'S ABILITY FOR THAT ALONE. THEY MAY BE RIGHT.
THIS SITE IS FOR FUN..AND OFTEN GOOD INFORMATION...USE IT IN THAT SPIRIT AND ENJOY,OR NOT AS YOU WISH.
Hey Doug, have you noticed that you can toggle all caps with the "Caps Lock" key?
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:32 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Quote:
Agent B: Do you have any reason to believe that there is a possiblity that flager and daytona beaches may lift the evacuation status any time today? Thanks Tammy
No, because they don't want a large number of people who have already left trying to get back to their homes and further snarling traffic. Also, Frances still has not made landfall so her course is still very much uncertain at this point in time. I remember reading on this site a while back that one thing to watch is to how the models "trended" from run to run. For a few days they seemed to track Frances north in the morning, south in the afternoon with each run. For the past few runs most have forecasted landfall from Melbourne south, with just a few still showing an almost due north movement(near impossible at this point IMHO). I just don't seen any places from South Florida all the way up to Flagler lifting or modifying evacuation orders 1)because of the huge problems it would cause on the roadways and 2)because Frances still has not made landfall. Hope that helps some.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:35 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Yes, but I was excited and it seemd to work for the moment.
| JaxBeachMan |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 02:36 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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What are the chances that they order more evacuations up the coast (St johns or Duval County)?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:02 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Anyone with a brain will know that this forum is for those who wish to sort thru data and form a better concept of what is occuring than is provided to the general public. I have found it priceless. And every 'general public' advisory has followed the consensus here pretty closely. Owning a home here and being concerned about it from Dallas it is one thing, finding yourself in the crosshairs is another thing entirely.
These guys deserve better, much better, than your critisism.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:10 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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i for one like to hear these peoples forecast and reasoning for them and hope they continue doing so. if you want the facts read the newspaper tomorrow. its not wrong because it is after the fact. btw before you belittle all "our mets and professionals" at least have your facts right. they have been posting here for quite some time and their forecasts have some merit to them. they have been right alot more than wrong.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:11 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Quote:
JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE HERE WRITES SOMETHING YOU DON'T LIKE DON'T CRITICISE THAT PERSON OR DEMEAN THE PERSON'S ABILITY FOR THAT ALONE. THEY MAY BE RIGHT.
THIS SITE IS FOR FUN..AND OFTEN GOOD INFORMATION...USE IT IN THAT SPIRIT AND ENJOY,OR NOT AS YOU WISH.
I second that !!! Apparantly GlasserinD doesn't understand that the internet is like his TV......... if he doesn't like what he is seeing, he can turn the channel or just not watch at all ! If he's already read it and doesn't like it, someone needs to tell him what the delete key if for !
Personally, I found this site to be nothing less than invaluable for the past several years !!Just my .02
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:12 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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As of right now, there does not appear to be any reason to call for any additional evacuations. However, with the storm slowing and possibly stalling, anything is possible right now. The one saving grace in this is that the slow motion assures time to make decisions.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:16 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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wife told me twc said they were moving the warnings farther north. also said jax would make decesion on evactions tomorrow. this was probably expected as it isn't moving fast and still doesn't look to be going as far west as expected
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:23 PM |
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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will the hurricane reach clear water?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:24 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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THE 11:00 DISCUSSION CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE DETIORATION OF THE CORE OF THE STROM DUE TO SHEAR WHICH WAS EVIDENT ON THE WV YESTERDAY AS IT TURNED NNW FOR A WHILE... IT ALSO IMPLIES TWO THREE DAYS OVER FLORIDA???
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:29 PM |
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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The feeder bands arre moving in on me right now(pompano beach)...winds kicked up and very gloomy out. This is gonna be a strong storm. Everybody ..please be prepared. God bless us all
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:29 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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I am looking at this storm and I see the shear, but also see what I think is the storm trying to wind it self back up.. Am I seeing things.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:30 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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why isn't the NHC web updated for 11am on web yet ?
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:30 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Kudos to you guys!!! This site is priceless and has very valuable information. I have learned so much since visiting this site for the past 2 years. Keep up the fantastic job!!!
Quote:Quote:
JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE HERE WRITES SOMETHING YOU DON'T LIKE DON'T CRITICISE THAT PERSON OR DEMEAN THE PERSON'S ABILITY FOR THAT ALONE. THEY MAY BE RIGHT.
THIS SITE IS FOR FUN..AND OFTEN GOOD INFORMATION...USE IT IN THAT SPIRIT AND ENJOY,OR NOT AS YOU WISH.
]
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:32 PM |
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how unpredictable the tropics are!!!
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Frances weakened very quickly and rather unexpectedly, and it still may miss the coast if it continues to turn north (if it heads straight in any direction, such as NW, it will hit FL)
TWC said that the 115 mph winds may be generous, and I personally think the chances are very good that this will drop below 115 at landfall, possibly to Cat I (although not very probable)
also interesting to listen to the wording they use on TWC
if the winds decrease 30 mph in 12 hours, it is "slight" weakening
if the winds were to increase 30 mph in 12 hours, it would be "rapid" intensification
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:44 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE
DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS.
i don't think these winds are suppose to last much longer. heard last nite that they would be there for about 20 hours and that was on the 10pm weather
| palmetto |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:46 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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In the latest loops, does it seem to anyone else that the eye may be peeking back out?
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:47 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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You are not seeing things, according to the NWS in Melborne in their 10:30 update:
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004
...MAJOR HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS INVOF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES HAVE SHOWN SOME
COOLING IN RECENT SAT IMAGERY...INDICATIVE OF A CONVECTIVE BURST
AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING
This coupled with the warmer waters in the gulf and its slowed speed, have the potential to intensify this storm.
MaryAnn
Quote:
I am looking at this storm and I see the shear, but also see what I think is the storm trying to wind it self back up.. Am I seeing things.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:49 PM |
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Re: C40
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Unfortunately the Miami doppler radar has been down again since just after 10:00. Bryan Norcross mentioned it when discussing the 11:00 AM advisory with the NHC. This puts the NHC at a disadvantage, but they said they are using radar and other data from the recon flights as much as anything else. Brings me back to Andrew, although the radar stopped working then when it blew off the roof.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:53 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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PORT SAINT LUCIE FL...NO ONE HAS MENTIONED OUR TOWN ON THE NEWS ALTHOUGH WE HAVE 130,00 PEOPLE. MOST OF MY NEIGHBORS HAVE HIT THE ROAD. WE ARE BOARDED UP EXCEPT FOR 1 SLIDING GLASS DOOR WHICH WE WILL BOARD JUST PRIOR TO THE HIT. IF IT KEEPS GOING LIKE THE MODELS WE MAY GET A DIRECT BLOW HERE. IN ANY CASE IT WILL BE VERY STRONG FOR US. IT IS ALREADY GETTING WINDY OUTSIDE. MY NEIGBORHOOD LOOKS LIKE A GHOST TOWN WITH ALL THE HOMES BOARDED. VERY FEW NEIGHBORS TO TALK WITH. THE GAS STATIONS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF GAS, WE ARE GASSED
UP, IN CASE.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:54 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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I may be new to posting here, but I would like to put some things into perspective. First, I have been an amateur forecaster (High School, College, and hobby) since I was a little kid, over 30 years ago. Back then, the computer models were much more inferior than the ones of today, and there has been a tremendous improvement in all forecasts. Will it ever be 100% accurate? No. The atmosphere is too complex, data over the ocean is more sparse, and there are too many variables that can occur many miles away from a storm that can have downstream effects. Also, hurricanes are on a smaller scale than mid-latitude cyclones, which makes it more difficult.
In situations like this, someone is always going to be scared and not see its worst. I would rather have that, than not be scared, and take a direct hit. Putting myself in the shoes of a forecaster, lives are at stake, and I would want to do everything I can to prevent the loss of them. If that means warning an area too large, so be it. Again, I am not affilliated with any forecasters, just my perspective.
I certainly hope the new ETA is right and it keeps the thing offshore until it gets farther north, because I feel it will have a difficult time regenerating due to its large circulation encountering land.
Many of us here (I think) like to like to try to learn, and challenge ourselves to hit a forecast. The final answer to any weather forecasts lies with the NWS.
Having said all that, I wish everyone in the path well, and prayers, and peace.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:55 PM |
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Strengthening
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NWS Melbourne mentions this in their discussion this morning,
you can see the cloud tops are cooling on the IR. Has anyone looked at the shear tendency chart yet, it shows it as decreasing, so perhaps slight intensification is possible.
CLOUD TOPS INVOF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES HAVE SHOWN SOME COOLING IN RECENT SAT IMAGERY...INDICATIVE OF A CONVECTIVE BURST AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:57 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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GlasserinD.... I am sure you have it all figured out, and that's why your complaining.... Nature is never easy to predict. There are tons of variables all changing at the same time, which makes it challenging for scientists to figure out anything. It is especially difficult to predict what large, powerful storms are going to do. Some people that post here are experts, others are just interested. However, just because someone is an expert in a field does not give them the ability to predict the future. Scientists look at all the available data and then make reasonable predictions based upon that. Unfortunately, it's the best we can do. Most of the comments on this page have all been very reasonable explanations for what could happen.
Terra
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:58 PM |
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Fox news in the hunter
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I don't know if anyone caught this, but Geraldo Rivera is/was in a hurricane hunter, and reported that it was moving 310 deg. at 8.5 knots (10ish I guess), and I think he mentioned the pressure had dropped a bit. I don't recall hearing or reading that elsewhere yet, so I would like to verify it.
| Rabbit |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 03:58 PM |
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Re: Strengthening
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the hurricane is NOT strengthening, and the recon plane in its latest report, as noted on TWC, said that the plane was only able to find 105 mph winds
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:00 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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I will assume, Glasser, that you are referring to me as a "so-called" met. What is your problem with us? There are several mets on here who just give their time (at the busiest time for any of them) to help our our neighbors. We aren't paid for this, nor do we want to be. We aren't spreading goom and doom...we are attempting to pass along the best information that we have...sometimes we don't have all the answers, and sometimes we get it wrong...its the nature of the business.
I'll tell you like I tell my viewers who complain when their soap operas are covered up when I have tornado warnings on the air...every computer in the world has an off switch.
Use it.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:00 PM |
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Local Update
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First rainband just went through. Winds gusted to 32 mph. Power has already gone out twice only to come back on. Hopefully I can stay online.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:01 PM |
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Re: Strengthening
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Sometimes the wind increases precede pressure drops. So you both could be right.. The barometric pressure could be dropping, just not showing in the winds as of yet.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:03 PM |
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Re: Strengthening
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pressure is up to 960
also, dry air is wrapping around the western edge of the center
| Jamiewx |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:05 PM |
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Re: Strengthening
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Rabbit, I never said the Hurricane was strengthening at this time, i said that maybe some intensification is possible, due to increasing cooler cloud tops and decreasing wind shear. Or at least i never meant to imply the hurricane was currently strengthening.
| andy1tom |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:05 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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well said jason. thanks for your thoughts on the board. we know you are busy. guess the mets in texas never get a forecast wrong.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:06 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Response to stick to the facts. I do, I always use the NHC's track on the main articles, but mention other models to better realize the "Cone of error" is just that. NHC isn't perfect, but they are generally the best.
The facts are on the left, the current position and windspeed, Anything more than that is a guess. This is here to get and discuss information about the possible future of the system and to make your own decisions and even question what you see if needed. If you have any doubt whatsoever, then take the word of the National Hurricane Center. That's what I do.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:07 PM |
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Re: Strengthening
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Remember these points that have been posted...
1) sheer has lessened
2) Hurricane is entering warmer waters
3) Convection has increased, with resultant cooler cloud tops
4) Pressure is dropping
IMHO...this will re-energize to a 4 at landfall...
on a general heading of wwnw...punish MIami...
then into the Gulf as a cat 2-3....
and window too far out to tell ....
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:08 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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There is virtually no outflow in the west or southwest portions of the system, and the upper shear is attacking successfully the NW portion too! Outflow from the NE and SE seems good. the shear is continuing through the current time and it looks as if it is present over the Florida peninsula which is NW and in the current direction of the storm...It will take slow forward motion, warm water and no shear to regenerate. I don't think it will ever be as big as it was, the weather on the west side is dissapating. But the central core could support some intensification if the shear lessens
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:11 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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GlasserinD, my response to you is that posting attacks like that will ruin the opportunity for unregistered users to post in the future, why don't you try taking on the responsibility that meteorologists have in this type of a situation. If it wasn't for meteorologists you would not know as much about this Hurricane as you know right now. So maybe you ought to be thankful.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:16 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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To Jason and the many other informative and dedicated experts and hobbiests on this board... Your knowledge and contributions are greatly appreciated. I am an earth science teacher in St Lucie County (Ft Pierce) and live in Vero Beach. I have used the explantions and predictions from this site both as a teaching tool in my classroom and to educate myself and my family. Everywhere on this site there are cautions about the nature of the content here (i.e. not official). Most of us are here seeking greater detail, more discussions, and updated info that often preceeds the official NHC releases. And as Mike could probably tell you, this site is heavily visited and enjoyed, probably by thousands who never post a thing. This one detractor is simply does not comprehend the value of the amazing knowledge and resources contained in this website and forum. Sincere thanks to all who have contributed during this busy, crazy week.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:17 PM |
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Re: Strengthening
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where are you seeing the pressure drops at? The latest shown is 960, which is up from the 959 at 11am
| HCW |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:18 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Shear map for someone that asked for it on the last page
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:20 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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looks like the shear is still pretty strong out of the west
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:21 PM |
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Re: how unpredictable the tropics are!!!
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At 11pm last night, Stewart wrote that there was disruption in the storm due to upper-level wind shears which were expected to abate within 24-26 hours. Since they have put the landfall at 10:00pm Saturday night, that gives it almost a full 24 hours without wind shear + moving over the warm waters of the Gulstream, I don't think Frances is "dying' by any means. Then, add in what the Melbourne NWS just issued, and the picture gets a little bit clearer. I'm just not all that confident that things are going to pan out exactly the way it looks right now. The track has shifted so many times to the left and right...mostly based on incorrect models, wobbles to the left and right plus actual weather that IS affecting it.
I think we will see more shifts + different wind intensities over the next 24 hours and as the NHC has said many, many times--there is no exact path/place they can pin down as to landfall.
Let me make this clear: the above statements are not things I WANT to happen, since I am in the path of this storm. So I am not "wishcasting" or playing "doom and gloom" games. I am only posting my very humble opinions as to what I have seen happen over the last 5 years..er, days. This storm is driving everyone nuts.
Keep safe, and keep alert. As for the poster who stirred up the pot earlier, I would not wast anytime responding to him as we are trying to minimize downtimes so that us "so-called amatuers" can get actual and factual information out. He doesn't deserve any responses. As hard as it is, let it go and try your best to stay on topic...and he is NOT a topic.
btw...this is Colleen...for some reason I cannot log on, no big deal, but I just wanted to let you know who I am.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:23 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Evidence of the continued active shear that is destroying the west side of the storm is best seen on the FLOATER IR ch2. There you will see very rapid, almost dart like wisps streaking NNE over the western edges of the clouds from Frances.
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:24 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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GlasserinD - I suppose that news anchors should be faulted for not yet knowing the results of next November's elections, and sportscastors flogged for not providing us with next January's SuperBowl score.
I for one value this forum. It offers me (an amateur) the chance to interact with pros, and I've learned a lot just by lurking here for the last three years. The mods and members are a great bunch of folks, and I say keep up the good work.
With all due respect GlasserinD, I suggest that you stick to official updates if our simple discussions stress you out that much.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:26 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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This storm is wearing me out and I'm not even in the path of it. I can't imagine what it must be doing to all of you in Florida. I still see a NW motion with definite building of storms around the center. Still looks to be some shearing but the west and southwest sides of the storm appear to be coming back some. IMO, if she is trying to restore some of her strength it is happening at a slow pace at this time.
ShawnS
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:27 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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IMO Her appearence on Visible satellite is looking better, I think we can all agree she is huge in size. I just heard recon. reported a pressure of 957, thats a 2mb drop and one of the islands recorded a pressure of 958mb, so I think she might have leveled off a bit. Also looking at the Satellite there doesnt appear to be as much shear undercutting the storm as was obvious yesterday. Basically Im gonna give her a shot at some re-intesification once the shear totally relaxes which should occur in 12 -18 hours. Also, for the people saying dry air is the problem, she has been in a dry enviroment her whole life, so I doubt that was the problem. Im gonna go with a Cat 3 maybe borderline Cat 4 at landfall. Just heard Nassau reported a wind gust of 87 MPH and their located quite a ways from the center. So this isnt a localized wind event by any means. My gut though is when she finally makes landfall, this will be more of a rain, battering waves, surge, and erosion problem with massive flooding possible much like Opal. For awhile I thought this was gonna be a wind machine but not so much now. But of course wind damage will still occur just not Extreme damage, I'll say Moderate to maybe Extensive. Well I need to go rest, I've been sick the last 2 days (No Im not just skipping school due to the storm!
) Frances sure aint makin me feel better.
Last thing, look west and see what other fun things we'll getta track as soon as Frances is done for. So much for the slow season. Also, here in Pensacola, waiting to see how much rain and wind I can get from Frances, as it will be my first time I've ever been directly effected by a hurricane YAY. Anyways stay safe and I hope everyone gets off the highways before she hits. Cheers
Look WEST? Is there something brewing in the GOM?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:28 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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Does anyone know where abouts this storm will be when it passes over central florida? One track I saw took it well south of my house(southern seminole county) while another took it much closer. The eye of Charley passed pretty much right over us and another direct hit, even cat one, will do some damage.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:30 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Rabbit, earlier you stated that the max flight winds found recently were 105mph--they were actually 105kts (121 mph). Earlier today they were finding max flight level winds around 98kts.
Also, this was in the NW quadrant of the storm, where the newest intense convection is firing. I think some of the dry air that entrained into the system is acting like bad gas, causing the storm's convection to sputter and burst for now.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:34 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Here is what the NHC has to say about Frances, and it's straight from the horse's mouth. Take it however you want it.
Quote:
IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS. HOWEVER...FRANCES IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE IS PLENTY
OF TIME...ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...FOR CHANGES IN THE INNER STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE TO OCCUR...WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
So, you see....even the NHC has posted what some of us here think *could* ..but hopefully WON'T happen.
Colleen
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:39 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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first off, as to my 105, I just checked it again, and it was in knots...
This storm is bringing to mind storms such as Opal, Bonnie, and Isabel--all were very intense hurricanes; all entrained dry air before landfall, and Isabel and Bonnie both stalled and underwent wind shear which disrupted the circulation, and none of these storms recovered:
Opal was 160, hit at 125
Bonnie was 120, hit at 100
Isabel was 160, hit at 105
I am not saying strengthening is impossible (nothing really seems impossible this year after last month), but it is very unlikely that Frances will strengthen much before landfall, especially back to 140; and it is still possible that it could weaken
my forecast: 105-110 mph between West Palm Beach and Daytona Beach
also, to all of you that are not registered, why not? if you make a mistake, you can fix it (ive made tons of typing mistakes ive had to correct)
(side note: does anyone else find it odd that there is West Palm Beach on the East Coast?)
| andy1tom |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:44 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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even though they aren't big islands how much affect would they have on weaking?
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:44 PM |
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Re: Strengthening
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Hi All,
Just curious why Rickonbat would say this will head west and enter the GOM. Is tehre anything going on that could possibly cause this?
Thanks for all the great work
That's because you dont know rick...and that's why I constantly ask him not to keep posting cat V headed for Mobile predictions on every storm...newbies might take it to heart and genuinely believe it.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:45 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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12:20pm ET - Afternoon everybody - We're all wondering the same thing we see; will Frances re-strengthen? I am not a professional meteorologist. I was a weather forecaster with the Air Force and I am now working on my degree in meteorology; that said, I've noted some professional meteorologist in this forum and they need to be heard (read). There are and will continue to be diverse points of view, but the boys & girls that bury their noses in these models and there are a few know their craft well. Let's move on: The topic is will this baby regain Category 4? It may. The best way to speak to this is a scorecard - 1) Will it restrengthen? - Gulf stream checks in at 30 to 31C (86 to 88F), shear tendency has decreased by 5 knots, and she continues to have excellent outflow except on the west side, will remain over water at least another 36 hours. 2) Weakening - 300mb shear remains between 15 & 20 knots directly over the system, with upper ridge axis to her SW, inner eye has become disrupted, dry air intrusion is noted on current water vapor imagery as of 1615Z impinging on the CDO on her west and southwest side, some land interaction, slow movement which tends to cool sea surfaces. Category 4? Possible, given how much time we're looking at prior to landfall, we all remember Charley, but the structure of Frances is different now. Category 3? Likely, if she reconsolidates and an eye is re-established prior to landfall. Category 2? 100 knots is nothing to sneeze out, and if the core can't recover, you're looking at a wind field that will continue to expand and what could be sustained hurricane force winds north of the eye for in excess of 24 hours; no picnic if you live on the beach. As for Ivan; he's a long way off, and too many variables to even guess where he's going, but he is on the southern track and a ridge is along for the ride with him. Beyond 5 days it will depend on where that shortwave trough is, and it's longwave cousin. If the shortwave bypasses the system, say hello to Gulf of Mexico; but that's at least 7 days out and there are no models that reliable beyond 5. Next week is the peak of the hurricane season climatologically.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:45 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Yes, the visibles are looking much better...maybe, as someone pointed out earlier, the eye is peeking out again?
Also, looking at this loop, it appears to me that it is moving more W of NW. However, this could just be an uncompleted loop. Check it out for yourselves:
Latest Visible Loop
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:46 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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What I find real intresting is how far away the strong winds with Frances extend from the center. If Im not mistaken it's already pretty windy on the east coast of Flordia. Also in the Bahamas with Nassau reporting an 87mph wind gust with the storm still quite far away. TWC showed a interview from Abaco and there was already some damage their but Im not sure how far away the center was from there. Anyone got a map of the Bahamas so I can get these names down?? I keep forgeting. Anyways, over here in the Panhandle, its quite breezy, Winds from the NE about 20mph or so. I dont know if its a direct effect from Frances, Just thought I'd state the fact.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 PM |
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WEST?
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I hope I'm not correct on this but from what I just saw from the latest visible loop she may have just jogged west again.
I know I kind of go back and forth with what I see sometimes but that is due to my lack of knowledge on these storms. That is why I love this site so much because I feel free to express my views on what I see and sometimes I'm correct, which tells me I've actually learned something. Sometimes I'm wrong but that's O.K., too because I have all these wonderful people on this site to help me figure out my mistake so I can continue to learn. I would not trade this site for anything and thanks to all of you who have helped me along the way and all of you who will help me in the future. Most of all, thanks to Mike and John and the mods out there who keep this site in tip top shape; even in extreme circumstances like these. One he_ _ of a job,guys!!!!!
ShawnS
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:48 PM |
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Strengthening or not?
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I've heard conflicting things on TV concerning this. Over the last hour or so people on tv have mentioned that the colored infared shows that the NW side of the storm seems to be building back in and maybe that is a sign the shear from the SW is weakening.
Watching a live loop and can see that indeed it seems deeper in color than before.
Local TV is hyping every feeder band that might pass through. Imagine up in West Palm they are watching the eye and not the feeder bands.
Thanks for all the HARD work and TIME given by people like Jason who are REAL METS and don't mean Met fans vs Yankee fans but working weather people who give of their time and usually enjoy talking to other weather friends on breaks from their own busy work. SNONUT for posting his thoughts when I am sure he has better things to do. And.. many of the amateur people on this site that I respect greatly.
Anyway.. like to hear more thoughts on the storm. Windy here but having blue skies for now til the next feeder band comes through.
The storm does look different now than it did before and for that person who made a comment about Miami.. well.. Let her rip.. we are ready as ready can be and .. I love Miami. Not as much as Key West but its one hell of a town, trust me on that.
Thanks for all the hard work keeping this site up. I really miss it when it goes down. Nice to see it up.
Bobbi
Well said bobbi, real met fans (if there are any left) suck.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:49 PM |
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Re: Strengthening
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Quote:
Hi All,
Just curious why Rickonbat would say this will head west and enter the GOM. Is tehre anything going on that could possibly cause this?
Thanks for all the great work
Yes, the fact that Rickonboat lives in Mobile and predicts every hurricane to head straight for him.
But rick is a good guy and provides insightful observations. We don't rely on him for track very much.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:51 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Ft. Lauderdale has reported a wind gust up to 44mph. How far away is Frances from Ft. Lauderdale?
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:51 PM |
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MLB HLS
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A couple of bits from the Hurricane Local Statement issued at 11:50
"FRANCES IS
MOVING SLOWLY AND COULD MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST ON SHORT NOTICE AND INCREASE RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS ALL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA MUST STAY VIGILANT."
"THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 115 MPH. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN BEFORE...FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY POSSIBLE."
So Melbourne is not ruling out strengthening here, and any more weakening may increase the wind field, thus affecting a much wider area. That could be worse than stronger winds affecting a smaller area.
Just listened to Steve Lyons, he says structural damage confined to mainly the east coast, but downed trees and power lines could extend into Georgia too.
This is a pretty neat image for seeing just how far out strong winds extend.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:52 PM |
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Re: WEST?
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last two visible loops hints of due west, or wnww, either that or we just had an eye reformation, we've not been able to clearly see it in a long time ..... obviously we need more loops... and not to harper on just a wobble or two, but ANY wobble now will have a critical impact on where this thing goes inland....
Frank P
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 04:58 PM |
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Re: WEST?
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Back on now as "Colleen A." instead of "Lakeland Gal".
I agree, Frank. It does look like a movement towards the west/wnw, the eye may going through another replacement cycle..for the 50th time. A couple of more loops may tell the tale. But it's definitely not our imaginations...
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:00 PM |
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Re: how unpredictable the tropics are!!!
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TWC forecasts like gas stations raise and lower gas prices...goes down slowly....goes up immediately. Hopes for the best as only living 2 miles from the coast...Godspeed everyone along this eastern coast of FL.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:01 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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Great post Alaberry Patch!
I think the storm will have a hard time re-consolidating and reaching its former peak winds, but I think 135mph is possible. More likely though it maintains or strengthens slightly prior to landfall.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:02 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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MOVING SLOWLY AND COULD MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST ON SHORT NOTICE AND INCREASE RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY.
sounds like they are not ruling out either one. i wonder if it does take a west movement if it is gonna speed up or slow down?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:05 PM |
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Re: WEST?
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Just a note of interest: the met on Channel 9 said at 12pm that the movement was to the NW and he expected that to continue. Just now, he only pointed pointed out how fast it was moving. I could just be that he figures that we can read the NW part on our own, but I've been following him now for three days straight (I'm a met stalker) and when he *doesn't* say something, it's usually because he has a good reason.
Or possibly not.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:05 PM |
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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Why haven't they updated this map!!! This is the best map with regional information on the web that I could find (another great one is the Carribeam Hurricane Network where you can put your exact coordinates in and see just how far the eye will get you you, how far the storm is fron you now and when it will reach you... SERIOUSLY COOL). All the other maps give just GENREAL information with no cities, or just Miami and Tampa on them. You would think that this being the FLORIDA site, you would get a LOT more and more FREQUENTLY updated information!
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:07 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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Can anyone offer updated Volusia Cty info at this time. Are you still under evacation? When would an evacation update be given? I live in GA but Daytona mean so much to my family and we actually all planned to be visiting as of this evening at Ocean Walk Resort. I hope all my friends in Daytona and all of Florida are safe.
Thanks Tammy
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:15 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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he probably has a real job and hasn't had time to do it. nobody is paid here, and when most get a chance they will add their input.
| kirdona |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:15 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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This site is the best! I am learning so much from all of you.
We just moved to Columbus, GA and most of the spaghettis take Frances right over us. Granted, we are very far inland, but having never experienced a hurricane before, I was hoping someone could give me ideas of what we can expect here.
Thanks!
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:15 PM |
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reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now
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the definite left hand turn is indicative of one of two possible options...it slowed down...reacted to the high pressure ridge, took a bit of a whammy from some sheer...and is now reworking alond the ridge to the wwnw...
or..the eyewall is rebuilding...and there's a lot of wobbling going on....however...I see the entire storm taking an egg shape that points to the w or wwnw....and that usually implies the new direction..
I expect within 12 hours it will be a cat 4 again..and hit Miami...
then into the gulf for new fun and games...
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:17 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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Andi, the thing that gets me is that we have all of these people that love to gripe about thing s on here and are still anon. If someone can take the time to post a gripe, then take time to register.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:18 PM |
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ft lauderdale wind gust was in a feeder band squall
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Calm down.
Winds are very low here...but when we get feeder band it gets wild and windy and gusty for like four minutes.. and then its gone. Which is why we are all watching nonstop weather. Can't go anywhere. Walgreens.. mom and pop stores..everywhere you go its Frances live.
Mind you.. are expecting sustained winds later but 44 now was a gust in a feeder band if it happened.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:19 PM |
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Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now
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Agree Rick,
This is going to get blocked northward and head due west and intensify. Think Miami is too far south though, more like Ft. Lauderdale northward. The western edge is now filling in nicely from the dry air earlier.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:20 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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All of a sudden the SW part of the system has exploded. What gives??
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:21 PM |
Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now
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My dad just commented to me about the apparent "west" movement that may just be a wobble, as many of you have. Does anyone have a site that has radar loops, or even a better a Bahama radar?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:22 PM |
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moving west??? or rebuilding on the west side
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I think that we should all wait and see what is going on after an hour or two...
Think that it is rebuilding on the west side of the storm more than moving west of wnw. As the storm is expanding out again in all directions..especially the west it looks like W movement but think its more wnw.
Yeah..could be in denial but think its more an illusion.
Think its wnw.
Ed Rappaport btw is on tv again an hour after he earlier explained Miami and Dade/Broward look a little better elaborating on watching current trend where it does look like it could be rebuilding on the west side and they are watching for a westward trend.
hmmmn
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:22 PM |
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Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now
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Due west movt now the last 5 frames. I guess that we will know at 5pm if it's a wobble or not .
| BillD |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:23 PM |
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Re: ft lauderdale wind gust was in a feeder band squall
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Blue sky, sunny and hot here, with some variable wind. Don't have a weather station, so can't give wind speeds, but nothing major. I got nothing of that last band, it was kind of ragged by the time it got here, and I guess what was left went to either side of me. Hasn't rained here since some time last night. Typical hot and muggy South Florida afternoon, except for the breeze.
They just got the Miami doppler back up and running.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:24 PM |
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exploded
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Quote:
All of a sudden the SW part of the system has exploded. What gives??
ShawnS
Do you mean exploded as in got stronger or discentigrated?
The weakening anyway, appears to be at an end. But will the storm strengthan?
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:25 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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i agree that the "fun and games" are fixing to begin.... i sure hope those toward the southend of the warnings didn't let their guard down. anyone have an idea of the speed now that is starting to go more westward now? does it have time to gain strength?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:29 PM |
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Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now
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This may be a trend reflected by a few global models and what the ECMWF has been doing all week.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:31 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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My gosh! That graphic of the winds was both incredible and horrible. Thank you for posting it.
According that graphic Eleuthra is currently directly in the eye. The worst is yet to come. The back side of the winds will push battering waves and storm surge directly into the harbor and punish the south end. It's not looking good for Abaco either.
We have a home in Casuarina, just a tiny settlement of locals which is directly between Sandy Point and Hole In The Wall. Basically in the center of the bottom V of Abaco.
During Floyd the water came completely over the peninsula (too small to see on most maps) and emptied into the creek behind my house, then ran back out to see following the creek. All of our friends at Casuarina have thankfully evacuated and they are at Cherokee which is much higher. But I cannot even imagine the waves pounding in there right now. Even on a good day the Atlantic waves crash impressively.
Map of Bahamas as requested by someone. Good maps- click to zoom on particular island.
http://users.powernet.co.uk/mkmarina/bahamas/bahamas.html
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:35 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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This storm is starting to look weird. It almost looks like the center wants to go ...SW????
ShawnS
| andy1tom |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:35 PM |
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Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now
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coop, good to read ya post again. beginning to worry you may have headed north already
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:36 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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For any of the Mets here.
What reason would a local television guy have for showing a graphic having the storm going north 50-75 miles offshore?
Maybe because it is still within the realm of possibilty...can't rule anything out yet.
WKMG Channel 6 in Orlando.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:39 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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I agree! I evacated from the Space Coast to Tampa. Didn't want to take any chances. Charley was no fun even though he came from the other coast! I was terrified throughout it and was also w/o electricity for a week. Transformers were sparking everywhere during the strom & I thought for sure my roof would start on fire. I said I would never stay through another one & I didn't!
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:42 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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FYI I see Jacksonville FL is now under a Hurrican Watch. Actually it's from Flager Beach up to Fernandina Beach. This is about 60 miles south of me! We are way down in low country in south east ga. Nothing usual is happing in my small town yet. We are only 30 miles from the Florida border in Callahan FL.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:44 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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I am not a met, but I think I can give you the answer. The ETA model has a similar track, so they must be using that. The GFS does not agree at all, however. If that is true, it is dangerous to take a forecast from one model and just use it.
Just a guess.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:44 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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Think we've got the reason behind the weakening down pat here...let me see if I can explain it pretty well.
Remember the upper low that had been located to the west of Frances as it traversed towards the Bahamas? Once it reached S Florida, it ceased movement and began to weaken, becoming nearly indiscernable on water vapor imagery. This was the status for a day or so, until yesterday.
Analysis of the visible and water vapor satellite imagery from yesterday shows that this weak upper low -- also reflected in the vorticity (spin) fields from the relatively high resolution RUC model -- and Frances completed somewhat of a Fujiwhara-type of interaction, leading to Frances moving northward for a time and then the upper low becoming entrained into Frances' circulation. Satellite showed that this upper low was entrained on the southwest side of the storm, moving around into the storm in a counterclockwise fashion. This is also consistant with the eyewall first breaking up on the SW side of the storm and later the erosion of the northeast eyewall and the dry slot to the west of the storm.
Essentially, Frances had lunch yesterday afternoon, ending up with an upset stomach. Now that it's had time to digest the low, it is back to strengthening over the open waters near the Bahamas. Recon should be out there shortly to provide a new fix; I imagine that a better defined eye and slightly lower pressure might be the end result. I don't expect any rapid or significant strengthening, but feel that the weakening trend is over.
Ivan is looking mighty healthy out in the E Atlantic today and is well on it's way to becoming a hurricane. Perhaps moving ever so slightly south of due west right now, it may well become a major hurricane in the next 3-5 days. as it approaches the islands. These "deep track" storms are often times the strongest ones, with climatological paths into Texas, Florida, or across many of the big islands, so it'll certainly be one to watch in the not-too-distant future. But for now...all eyes are on Frances.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:45 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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Quote:
For any of the Mets here.
What reason would a local television guy have for showing a graphic having the storm going north 50-75 miles offshore?
WKMG Channel 6 in Orlando.
May be just me but I don't like Ch 6's weather casters.
they used that graphic that does NOT follow what the NHC says the track will be. They are not doing anyone any good by doing that. I prefer ch 9
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:45 PM |
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Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now
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Well as some have noted it has moved more westward over past couple of hours, best bet is too just continue to watch this trend, given recent history of numerous jogs northward and westward. Remember slow moving storms do jog quite a bit.
Looking at latest shear and shear tendency maps theres still some healthy west and west southwest shear over the storm as upper level anticyclone is sitting south of FL over central and western Cuba. Although shear tendency shows a decreasing shear values between FL and northern Bahama islands. Thus theres a good chance this could strengthen some as it moves over this area "slowly''. I 'am thinking probaly cat 3 and landfall but this could easily be slightly stronger or weaker so I'am taking middle classification for now. I'am sticking with landfall south of cape and north Jupiter Inlet although recent movement westward will need to be watched closely...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:45 PM |
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frances
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i want to thank all of you for an outstanding site here.
i have been reading your comments for days and you are all much better thatn the national media outlets...and so interesting.
i have learned so much about steering currents from you..among many other things.
long live all of us hurricane heads!
great work.
as for frances ...she is something else.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:49 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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I agree. Channel 9 is my choice, as well.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:50 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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alan -- WKMG is an Accuweather station. They've been calling for that track for a week now and apparently have yet to change. They did the same with Charley, calling for it to move further north offshore (and not impacting the Orlando area). I can't say definitively one way or the other, but I'll bet you it's the Accuweather influence...
...and they're proving why many mets. in the professional community absolutely despise Accuweather. They're also taking a huge risk (one unlikely to pay off yet again) with such a forecast.
JB just called. He's coming down there to personally pummel you tonight...LOL
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:51 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit
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This storm alarms me mostly because it did weaken somewhat. People seem to be breathing a collective sigh of relief, that or feeling the weakening will become a trend. I would love nothing more than have this hurricane dissolve, sadly, that is not going to happen. Right now, I think the nightmare scenario would be to start moving due west with shear relaxing, slide over the warmer waters and and hit even further left.
Keep in mind, at this point, nothing is really out of bounds for this storm, It's behaving exactly the way it should, as someone said on here last night, it's just we don't have the tools to understand what it's going to do yet. So it looks like the storm is misbehaving from our imperfect understanding.
Also, A thank you of graditude to all the Mets who have tried their best to understand this storm. Even with all our fancy tools, weather forecasting is problematical at best. (maybe I should go back and get a Masters Degree and join on somewhere LOL... it could be fun....or a nightmare of stress on days like this)
Hang in there everyone...and once this one is done, take a deep breath and we'll start looking at Ivan.
Is it December yet?
and knowing this year... We still might have something brewing!
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:52 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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clark
with the recent changes on how long before you can give us the inside scoop on what is going on??
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:53 PM |
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Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now
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Hey Storm Cooper, Good to see you posting again. I have noticed quite a few models (Ukmet, CMC, Nogaps and ECMWF) all bring Frances as a Strong TS or Minimal hurricane very close to our area (Panhandle). Yet NHC still keeps the storm over land into Georgia. Not that I disagree with them but I've only seen the GFDL with that solution. Havent seen any other models except the ones I mentioned. So what are your thoughts? Im not as concerned here as you probably should be, but I've been very intrested in hearing your thoughts about where a possible second landfall may be, if there is one. Thanks
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:53 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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Channel 6 is using a VIPIR forecase model.
This model shows another path that moves the storm along the coast instead of making landfall near Vero Beach, Fla.
According to them, the VIPIR model would keep the strong winds in the storm's northern quadrant away from Central Florida. I think it's wishful thinking on their part, but that's just my call.
Can anyone else who is more knowledgeable explain this model they are using that seems so divergent from all others right now?
TinaLee
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:54 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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WMKG in Orlando always does that.. They always adjust the track to be different. Hoping I guess one time they will be right.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 05:58 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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Quote:
he probably has a real job and hasn't had time to do it. nobody is paid here, and when most get a chance they will add their input.
Yeah! By day, President of the largest property management staffing company in America, but by night... SkeetoBite!
Skeetobite is a hobby. Maps are updated as info and time becomes available.
Be safe everyone-
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:00 PM |
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Re: exploded
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The storm is going to move with some wobbles through the islands. Despite their small size, they do have some affect in a frictional nature. I still have the thought in the back of my mind of a stall.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:01 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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Skeeto-
I have to say your images are absolutely amazing! I can hardly wait until the new ones come up.
That said, the latest one seems harder for me to understand. Is it because it is size adjusted, more 'close-up' on the state?
Keep them coming - from here in Orlando they offer me a real look at what's coming.
TinaLee
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:01 PM |
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Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now
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I saw an interview with max mayfield(dir of the nhc miami) on NBC 6 last night in south florida. He said they were using the gfdl for their official track. i'm not sure if that has changed today, but that might be why their track goes to georgia rather than the panhandle.
| Bloodstar |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:03 PM |
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Hurricane hunters found an eye
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it's 20 miles wide and open to the SW
but it is there...
Not what I want to hear.
Mark
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:04 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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channel 6 was still calling for 40-60 mph winds in kissimmee during charlie before i lost power-this was as 80mph winds were blowing down trees in my yard !
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:05 PM |
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Re: reintensification and eyewall rebuilding project going on now
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I'm not really concerned as S FL is where the real problems will be. As for us up here, I'm just patient. Also keep in mind how many times the NHC track has changed. I'll keep watching and see what will verify.
| andy1tom |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:05 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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hope i didn't step on toes but it frost my a$$ when people criticize those of you that go out of your way to make this a great board. same goes for you jason.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:06 PM |
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eye
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yep, it looks like the eye is peeking out again from under the clouds.
I predict little change in strength before landfall.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:07 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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Clark, That was an excellent observation and analysis of what caused the weakening. It makes total sense to me. Is this upper low what was causing the SW shear and providing all the dry air being entrained into Frances? Looking at the satellite I dont see and upper low around anymore so Im assuming its been destroyed? I guess alittle strengthening could occur then if this is the case but its not occurring at the moment as the pressure is now 960mb. Oh well, its another wait and see day.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:07 PM |
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Re: exploded
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Unfortunately, I disagree on the explosion...The visible shows a loss of convective activity near the center and that is confirmed by the IR which shows warming of the tops...I think I see dry air wrapping all the way around into the center
I don't think this looks healthy at all.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:08 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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Quote:
Skeeto-
I have to say your images are absolutely amazing! I can hardly wait until the new ones come up.
That said, the latest one seems harder for me to understand. Is it because it is size adjusted, more 'close-up' on the state?
Keep them coming - from here in Orlando they offer me a real look at what's coming.
TinaLee
Important
The latest image was adjusted to show the true scale of the hurricane (red line) and tropical storm force (blue line) wind fields at the time of the last NHC advisory.
Make no mistake folks, this thing is huge, regardless of intensity at landfall, if you live in the USA and are south of Georgia and east of Texas, you will get up close and personal with Frances soon.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:10 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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With regards to this model some have mentioned a newstation in orlando area is using is probably just a copy of the ETA model. Because if you look at latest 12z ETA it has storm staying just offshore and moving north. This looks to do to ETA weakening the ridge in upper levels, but looking at latest analysis 17z it looks as though ETA is weakening rdge too much.
| LI Phil |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:10 PM |
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Re: exploded
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Just got thru reading everyone's posts. Great stuff as always. TWC mentioned she's currently weakening and DEFINITELY has taken an almost due west path (showed it on the visual with the little white line).
Keep up the great stuff...now that I'm caught up I'll see what I can do about finding stuff you guys request.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:24 PM |
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Re: exploded
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pressure at 2pm up to 962 mb
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:29 PM |
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Re: exploded
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Do you think this just a jog west or a trend?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:30 PM |
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Info available on DTV in Tampa and Orlando.
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If you have access to Digital TV broadcasts [usually considered to be done via a High Definition reciever], the following info is showing on these sub-channels. WFTV 9-2 in Orlando is showing a continuous one hour time lapse loop of the long range radar in Miami. WFLA 8-3 out of Tampa changes between showing forecast models, Miami long range radar with lighrning tracking. WKMG 6-2 in Orlando has NOAA Weather radio for audio with various displays from their VIPIR system, including radar and sattelite loops.
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:31 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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I'm gonna go a little wild here and guess that Channel 6 is an NBC affiliate? Channel 8 here in Tampa is an NBC affiliate and is using the Vipir model, too, and it shows the storm staying offshore.
My thinking is this: if it isn't being used by the NHC, I'm not going to use it.
| LI Phil |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:32 PM |
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Re: exploded
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At this point (I also posted this last night), please do not ask me to make any meterological decisions...I'm not a met and I don't want anything I say to result in a decision that could affect the life and limb of anyone out there. Sorry. Maybe Rabbit or JK or Clark or Scottsvb or ED can field this one.
I'll report what I see or hear, but I will let you decide...
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:32 PM |
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Re: exploded
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Frances tracked much more WNW from 11am to 2pm than she had in over 24 hrs. It was a movement of .2 degrees north and .5 degrees west. Obviously it was only in a 3hr timespan, and by 5 o'clock we'll be able to tell if that might be a trend more westward starting. However, yesterday she tracked much closer to NW than she ever had, and any movement that's more west than north needs to be monitored very closely. On the infrared maps it looks like an eye is still somewhat visible to the SE of Great Abacao, but it sort of "disappears" as the storm tracks WNW, and the convection sort of dies out. This is more of a snapshot of current conditions though and shouldn't be marked as a trend.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:32 PM |
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I was...
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I was going to post with some thoughts, but Clark did such a good job that I can find nothing to add that is either pertainent or relevant at this time (gratitous Sportscenter reference).
I do concur with Clark's analysis (I miss my GEMPAK!!!!)...sharp work my friend.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:34 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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Thank you for that understandable explanation. All the helpful people here are outstanding in their own way - it helps to get the 'whys' behind the 'when and where'. Our local mets here are mostly echoing NHC - but fox was doin the 'up the east coast of FL with the eye just offshore' as of 9pm last night. Uising some model they like to use here on severe weather.
<minirant>The guy from Good Day Live actually said today that Frances could intensify to a Cat IV or V by landfall... I wish someone would tell him that his guesses are not helping people who get all the news from tv! </minirant>
Quote:
Essentially, Frances had lunch yesterday afternoon, ending up with an upset stomach. Now that it's had time to digest the low, it is back to strengthening over the open waters near the Bahamas.
OK ... that just got my funnybone... ty!
'shana in Austin
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:36 PM |
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pressure schmessure
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The pressure is going up slightly...because it is encountering portions of the Babamas...and is busy wiping out trees and huts.......it will intensify and hammer the southern Florida coast soon enough
Rick...KNOCK IT OFF! Even if you happen to be right, choose better terms to describe possible future events.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:37 PM |
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Re: exploded
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Channel 9 mentioned a potential turn toward Daytona....
:?:
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:39 PM |
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Re: I was...
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I thought the example of Frances eating lunch yesterday and having an upset stomach was just priceless....
BUT, I'm still concerned about Mon & Tue.....Here in Atlanta they are calling for heavy rain and winds for about 48-60 hours. Jason or Clark, anything in the futurecast to dispel that forecast, or should I be looking for an old man with a whit beard leading animals down Peachtree St?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:47 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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Ok, just saw WKMG's Vipir deal. I don't think they are wrong in giving the scenario. What they displayed is a worst case situation, IMHO. I thought the on air met made it very clear that it was just another possibility from the official. Not saying it was going to happen. If public saftey is the issue, then it fair to give such information just to keep folks further north from getting complacent.
Personally, I do see the validity in what they are saying and there are other models that go along with it. The comments they made seem proper.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:50 PM |
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
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I am not really getting this northerly jog/motion thing...SHORT TERM we are seeing soimewhat of a west wobble...but I am got getting what everybody is pointing to for some sort of radical north motion. Of course no one at NHC has explained it in the Disco's...I am assuming that modelling is just being blindly followed again.
Clark, still there? Do you see anythig in the analysis fields that leads to a significant northward motion?
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:50 PM |
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Re: MLB HLS
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Did Vipir predict the sudden gig that brought Charley on shore at Punta Gorda or are they just blowing smoke up their own A$$e$ ? here in Tampa it seems they cant go 20 seconds without running their little commercial stating they were first. I don't remember particularly them being the leader.....
I am new to all this, still a hurricane virgin so to speak, but I can't help noticing that all predictors, professional and amateur tend to bend the potential track towards their own location. It was especially noticeable this morning on the radio when the DJ went to weather men in the different cities that the show is syndicated. Those in Miami had the storm heading due W, Tampa followed the NHC, straight through the middle of their market, and Jacksonville had it hugging the coast and coming ashore just south of them, even Atlanta had the storm dumping rain all over them. I don't mean this as criticism, its just an observation, but it seems there is some kind of perverse need to bring the storm closer to ones location, I thought perhaps that it might be just the media trying to sensationalize, but the same kind of thing happens here too.
Great site BTW, I am waiting for my ID to be processed
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 06:57 PM |
|
|
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
|
NORTH
Why does this loop make it appear to be going west-southwest, if anything ? It's hard to tell since no eye is visable; is it just reformation or is this really indicative of a total change in direction ?? 
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:00 PM |
|
VIPIR...
|
I was on the design team at Baron Services prior to my job here, and I am intimately familiar with VIPIR and how it works...
Yes, VIPIR (or more accurately the custom version of the MM5 that is displayed on VIPIR) it anticipate the more rightward motion of Charley about 24 hrs prior to landfall. I was running the model and I actually have video of me, the night before, calling for a Ft Myers landfall based on this. While the stations that had VIPIR did have this information, not all of them used it..or didn't use it well.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: MLB HLS
|
I may be wrong on this and Jason may be able to pipe in on this from his standpoint if he wants or has time. I think that the local stations will highlight the possible dangers to their viewing area. Therefore, information that highlights a possible danger to the area, that seems to be a reasonable option, will also be highlighted. I think that it is normal and probably the correct thing to do. I would sure hope that the person I am watching is giving me as much information as possible about what could happen. I am a firm belieiver in giving out the worst case situation. If you prepare for the worst case, most times you will be ready.
Back to Frances, this slow speed opens up so many possibilities. Just really have to keep an eye on her. Use the extra time to get ready. I think I will go cut my lawn now before it becomes a swamp.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:10 PM |
|
|
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Movement
|
I believe Frances is going to go due west or even slightly south of due west. I see high pressure to the SW and to the NE of the storm. Frances is looking for that weakness across Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties to avoid the 2 highs. Lowest pressures in that region all the way across the state to Naples. The old Hebert's box thing may just come true.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:18 PM |
|
Re: MLB HLS
|
I watched Channell 8 NBC exclusively for Charlie and they only mentioned the VIPER trac AFTER the turn just like everyone else. Steve Jerky and that commericial are why I will be watching this board and ABC from now on. If they predicted Charlie 3 days in advance like they say, why did they tell eveyone watching to evacuate to the area where it HIT ???? It is clear they BLEW it (no Pun intended) and just blatently lie about it afterwards. I do not know if VIPER is any good or not, but I certainly know WFLA is TERRIBLE.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:20 PM |
|
Re: Movement
|
I agree. Even in the absence of a discernible eye, the latest frames idicate a reforming in a westerly, even WSW direction.
| crm9501 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:24 PM |
|
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
|
I am in Boca Raton and the wind speed is picking up and the sky looks very dark. We have lost and gained power twice so far. They told us to expect these bands thoughout the day. Anyone know or have an idea of where it might make landfall and when? I have not had time to read all the posts as of yet. I'm very new to this so any technical talk will blow right over my head (LOL)! Keep safe everyone!
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:27 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Movement
|
I guess it would have help if I had included the link I was referring to a couple of posts back
What direction is she going ??????
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_29/anis.html
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:29 PM |
|
|
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
|
Will the more west movt cause the forecast track to be shifted back to the left and increase the chance of a second panhandle landfall ?
What do you think Jason ?
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:29 PM |
|
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Re: Movement
|
I agree with you all. I see a West or even a WSW motion right now. This could be a big factor on where Frances makes landfall and whether she gets into the Gulf or not.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:33 PM |
|
|
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Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
|
Check out this visible loop...if the center is where I *think* it is, which would just below the tip of the island it just hammered and right in between that island and the one to the south of it (a hurricane sandwich), it almost looks as if the eye is reappearing and has formed south and west. If you click on the upper right hand corner of the window where it says "Forecast Points", it sure doesnt' appear to me that Frances is headed that way...at least for now.
Goes Visible Loop
I don't know if I'm right or wrong about where the center is, but I've been watching Frances for some 50 years now, and Iso it could be that my eyes are just tired.
Feel absolutely free to correct me if need be.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:34 PM |
|
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
|
Droop -- Frances essentially swallowed it whole. It was responsible for some dry air entrainment into the storm, but much of that is in the process of being moistened out. The storm is pretty much at a steady state right now, but does have the potential for some reintensification. How much (of both potential and strengthening)....to be determined.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:34 PM |
|
Re: Movement
|
So...what are the odds of Frances beating Ivan to the FL coast? Looks to me on the latest satellite pics like the convection has rotated around, but she hasn't moved.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:37 PM |
|
Re: Movement
|
there is no wsw motion, you have to watch the radar pretty much now overall with motion. What you are seeing on the vis is the decay on the sw side of the center giving a appearance of a w movement. I do think its going more wnw but should be near 285dg later this evening or tonight and come into florida Sat evening. I did same couple days back on my 3 day landfall that it would weaken in the near term due to the influence of the trough but clark pretty much explained it very good. I did and still do expect this to regain intensity later tonight into tomorrow as a strong Cat 3 making landfall in Martin or St lucie counties as has been expected.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:39 PM |
|
|
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Wind Field
|
Looks like Tropical Storm Force winds will be moving onshore this evening according to this graphic
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:41 PM |
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Re: Movement W
|
Looks like it might be happening you see it best I think on Dorvak.One would have to see this continue for a few more hours before one could commit to it.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:41 PM |
|
|
|
Current Conditions
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Nowcast
Through 4 PM...a spiral rainband from Hurricane Frances will continue to move towards the southwest across the Atlantic waters. This rainband will affect the East Coast Metro areas...producing winds of tropical storm force...possibly up to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall will also be seen.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:46 PM |
|
Re: Movement
|
mbfly.. excellent link. TY. Perhaps it is just my laymans, untrained eye but it appears that the mass of the center core is rebuilding to the southwest. Not wishcasting... just an observation. All eyes will be on the 5:00 p.m. track update for sure...
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:50 PM |
|
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Local update
|
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 50 MPH.
A MEASURED WIND GUST TO 54 MPH WAS RECEIVED FROM BOCA RATON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SQUALL EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO FORT
LAUDERDALE TO AVENTURA. MUCH OF METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE WILL BE IMPACTED.
PERSONS SHOULD AVOID BEING OUTDOORS! POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED WHEN TREE LIMBS ARE BLOWN DOWN.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:50 PM |
|
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
|
Ive heard that if the storm happens to stall or stay under 5mph on land this could drop as much 30 inches on florida
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:51 PM |
|
5:00 Update
|
I would say don't expect much to change at the 5:00 update as far as the track is concerned. I just don't see the NHC really changing anything at this point and time.
ShawnS
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:53 PM |
|
Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
|
well I've just stared at the Miami long range radar loop for about the last 10 minutes... and I don't see much of any discernable movement at all during the loop time span... if its moving, its not moving very much at this very moment.... at least not to this set of tired, burning and untrained eyes....
here is the loop if you want to persue some up close and personal agony...
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 07:55 PM |
|
|
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Pressure Drop
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Steve Lyons just got the latest vortex message, says the pressure has dropped a couple of millibars. Local mets are saying it is pulling itself together. Steve also saying the WNW motion is not expected to continue and the storm should resume a NW motion.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:01 PM |
|
|
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Re: 5:00 Update
|
Never say never...they've changed the track with almost every advisory. Not by a lot, but they have done it. In fact, I think the closer you get to a landfall, the more they are going to tweak that track so expect more, not less.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:01 PM |
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|
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Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
|
Colleen, I was seeing that motion too. On the infrared loops it looked almost like Frances was turning back on herself. Almost like one side was "heavier" than the other, and as a certain point in the storm circulates past due north it almost pulls the storm closer to due west. Also, the west side of the storm is starting to look rather ragged. Obviously this is probably due to its interaction with the Bahamas and the SE coast of Florida.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:02 PM |
|
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
|
SL on TWC said that pressure is down slightly . An area of deep convection near center is noted. Could the weakening trend be over? Or is this just a short, temporary burst? Any info?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:03 PM |
|
Coming back???
|
Pressure down...winds up....700mb heights falling...
748
URNT12 KNHC 031925
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1925Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
77 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2738 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 024 DEG 82 KT
G. 288 DEG 021 NM
H. 959 MB
I. 10 C/ 3093 M
J. 17 C/ 3096 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF984 2306A FRANCES OB 11
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 1811Z.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:03 PM |
|
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic
|
been hearing news that the storm is really pulling itself back toegther and could reintensify before landfall
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:09 PM |
|
|
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Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
|
I don't see much movement, either. Now..is the center on the island or off the island?
AFLAC!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:12 PM |
|
not what we needed
|
A two millibar drop in pressure is not significant when a storm is holding its own or intensifiying, but it means a tremendous amount when a storm is weakening. This is because a lower pressure usually means an end to weakening, as one could make a strong argument that the true strength of a hurricane (or any low) is measured by pressure.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:14 PM |
|
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
|
You guys who know what you're talking about: is there a chance that it will take a turn west and hit further south than predicted tracks have it going? How about the odds of it intensifying? Thanks ahead of time everyone.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:14 PM |
|
Center moving towards SE Abaco
|
Looks to me Miami radar has a good pix on the eye approaching the SE Abaco Islands... shows up in the last couple of frames.... need more loops to determine direction
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
| Anton Ross |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:16 PM |
|
Charleston question
|
Long-time lurker, first time caller.
Noticed the latest dispatch from NHC now has Charleston (SC) with a <12% chance of making acquaintance with Frances in the next 72 hours. I keep seeing this stall and then a more Northward angle on her, and am not quite happy about it. With both Charley and Gaston I had to deal with power/cable out, downed trees, a wrecked garden, etc... and wonder if anyone has some thoughts?
Awesome board, by the way.
Best,
Anton in Charleston (well, the Pleasant side of the river)
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
|
Quote:
I don't see much movement, either. Now..is the center on the island or off the island?
AFLAC!
I can't see a clear center right now. Probably due to the shear it was experiencing as well as its west side now interacting with Florida. Personally it looks like the "eye" starts to the SE of Great Abaco, tracks to the NW, gets right on top of the tip of the island and tracks close to due west.
| PFSThunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:17 PM |
|
|
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
|
She's back. On the GOES Floater IR, the CDO is established again and the eye is back. Can't get a direction yet since the eye just became visible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| digitalssinc |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:19 PM |
|
Re: Center moving towards SE Abaco
|
I am going to Destin tomorrow, has anyone heard what I should expect for the next few days there?
By the way, I have been monitoring this site for about 3 days now, and I have formed a tremendous respect for the people who work hard to give the truth.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:22 PM |
|
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
|
first impression on the radar loop look to be somewhere between wnw and nw.... still wobbling around so not sure which or if a combination of both.... but you can certainly see it as it is hitting the SE part of the island...but I know its NOT north.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:22 PM |
|
|
|
Update
|
4 pm thoughts from Thomas:
Once again I post this email due to numerous requests asking my opinion on our current tropical trouble twosome!
Barely CAT 3 Frances "once again" wobbled right then back to the left today due to eye wall reformation (trochoidal). She is moving fairly slow at around 9 mph on a WNW heading and could slow done even more. At 2:30 pm EDT on Friday September 03, 2004 the center of Frances is just south of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas. This position increases the chances of landfall on the east coast of Florida.
Looking at the 1830 UTC/1:30 pm EDT visible satellite imagery still shows a shrouded eye BUT with a BIG burst of convection in the right side of the eyewall. This big burst of convection should ensure a continued WNW track in the near term. Back on Wednesday September 01, 2004 I forecasted some SW shearing as Frances traversed to approximately 75 deg. west longitude and indeed that has happened during the past 24 hours. I still expect normal eyewall re-development within 18 hours as Frances moves over the near 90 deg. F waters of the Gulf Stream. I also have strong concerns that Frances will strengthen dramatically back to a strong CAT 4 when over the Gulf Stream prior to landfall.
Though we are still in for some circulation friction, trochoidal track wobble, eyewall reformation, as well as some minor strength fluctuation during the next 24 hours, I see no reason to change my forecasted landfall of between Palm Beach and Vero Beach as a strong CAT 4 but now on Saturday evening. BUT like with CAT 4 Charley, speed divergence could abruptly pull Frances ashore (sharp left turn). Otherwise a WNW track from the Palm Beach-Vero Beach window across inland Polk County to near or north of the Tampa Bay region back into the GOM is probable.
A good storm chaser location will continue be the Hobe Sound-Port St. Lucie window BUT BE SAFE. As Frances tracks WNW towards the northern Tampa Bay metro area after landfall, I still expect inland east central Florida to see a long period of 111-155 mph winds (CAT 3-4) and inland west central Florida 75-110 mph winds (CAT 1-2). I would also expect 10-20" of rainfall and numerous tornadoes. With most of the central peninsula saturated from yet another very wet summer I would expect extensive inland flooding problems. A second landfall of a CAT 1-2 Frances is also possible in the Florida panhandle or Mobile, AL.
I do continue the chances of a NW-N track turn missing Florida to the east at 20%. I also add that there is a 30% possibility that a CAT 4 Frances sits quasi-stationary over the Gulf Stream right off of the coast for a day or two and then heads N-NE. And last but not least, a 30% chance that a CAT 4 Frances eyewall skims the coastline and eventually goes ashore at a Cape Canaveral to New Smyrna Beach window.
As I surmised yesterday evening tropical depression #7 east of the Windward Islands "was" T.S. Ivan. My impression continues that Ivan will stay on a track south of the Greater Antilles through the Caribbean Sea and a future CAT 5 threat.
My .02 for today.
Routine disclaimer. As I've officially retired from space and atmospheric weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is lower, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:25 PM |
|
Re: not what we needed
|
Well if Frances can just maintain herself now and keep the convection going she'll be ok. Im still thinking landfall around West Palm Beach, Cat 3, 115-120 mph and maybe a few gust up to 135 or so. When do the next model runs come out? I learned how to read all of them, Im just to lazy to figure out all that UTC, zulu stuff lol. Any help is appreciated.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:26 PM |
|
Panhandle Weather this weekend..
|
Saturday, and most of the day on Sunday should be really nice...things should begin to go downhill late Sunday...depending on the track and the structure of Frances as she moves north, you may or may not get rain as far west as Destin....a little to early to tell...I'd bet on at least some rain on Monday.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:29 PM |
|
Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend..
|
What about Gainesville? We live about a mile W of the beach in St Johns County, and I'm thinking of heading inland
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:32 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend..
|
Jason what are your thoughts on a possible 2nd landfall in the panhandle ?
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:33 PM |
| Attachment |
|
Vortex Decoding Tool
|
Hello all! I'm not a met, not even a weather person much, but I am a programmer, and I've come up with a tool that hopefully can be of some use to someone.
The attachment to this post is a text file. (You can't post HTML attachments on here.) If you save the attachment as an .HTML file on your computer, and open it on your web browser, it will contain a text window and two buttons (Clear and Decode). If you follow the link on the page (near the top), a new window will open containing the most recent hurricane Vortex Recon Report. If you highlight and copy the recon report, then paste it into the box on my program, you can press the Decode button, and it will convert it into (slightly) easier to read English...
I don't promise it's going to work 100%, and it only can handle recod vortex reports, not drop or supplemental (YET), so try it if you feel like it. PM me if you have problems, suggestions, etc.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:34 PM |
|
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Melbourne Discussion
|
Well, seems like this year mother nature is catching up for we haven't had in the way of tropical weather for so long.
From MLB
". HPC DAYS 6-7 PROGS SHOW STRONG HIGH PRES PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH T.C. IVAN LURKING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE MAGNITUDE OF ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH FORECASTS AT THAT LONG OF A TIME FRAME ARE WELL KNOWN - STAY TUNED NEVERTHELESS...THIS SEEMS TO BE A PAYBACK YEAR OF SORTS FOR FLORIDA ."
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:34 PM |
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
|
thanks for all your efforts! Don't listen to the gripers. Let's give 'em th benefit of the doubt: maybe they're just scared. Keep up all the interesting observations. I'm in NJ but only 20 feet from the sea, so always interested!
| digitalssinc |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:36 PM |
|
Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend..
|
Jason,
Thanks for the quick response. You are farther east than i will be. Everyone keeps says how it will go through FLA and jump back in the gulf, how real is this scenario?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:41 PM |
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Re: Vortex Decoding Tool
|
Awesome.... works great for me.... thanks
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:41 PM |
|
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
|
Anybody know when the SW shear over Francis will let up? Its very obvious right now in the visible satellite. I think when or if it lets up then she'll begin intensifying again, but until then she'll at least be able to maintain herself. Any answers Clark, JK?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:42 PM |
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Re: Vortex Decoding Tool
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This is great for us lay people. You are a magician. Thanks.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:43 PM |
|
Re: Vortex Decoding Tool
|
5:00 Advisory
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT FRANCES
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100
KNOTS BUT...BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA
AIRCRAFT...THE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING A LITTLE BIT.
THIS NECESSITATES EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO
STRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL...WHILE MOVING OVER WATER. ALTHOUGH NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT STREGTHENING...THERE IS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR FRANCES TO RE-INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT PASSES OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND APPROACHES THE FLORIDA COAST.
AS ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
USUAL WOBBLES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS AND A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BECAUSE NEITHER THE STEERING NOR THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAVE CHANGED..THERE IS NO POINT TO DISCUSS IT AGAIN.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FRANCES...A POWERFUL HURRICANE...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL CAN NOT BE SPECIFIED EXACTLY.
BECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING
TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 25.9N 77.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.4W 100 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 27.4N 80.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 31.1N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z 35.1N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1800Z 40.0N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Vortex Decoding Tool
|
Wow! Awesome tool, thanks for making it available!
Best Regards,
Bev
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 08:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: not what we needed
|
FINALLY...Alan Winfield (what a name for met in Florida, huh?) just pointed out where the center of the storm is: right smack between the big island chain (Abaco Islands?) and the island south to it, and she's over water. Moving to the WNW. *IF* this continues, there will be another track shift to the left.
Well, my eyes are blurry, so I'm gonna go rest them for a while.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 09:02 PM |
|
Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend..
|
Increasingly less likely...not out of the question, but even if it does it would probably be in a very weak state.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 09:05 PM |
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Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend..
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It's real, but it may not matter too much...the forecast track would keep it over land a long time, and a very short time back over the Gulf...unless it comes back into the Gulf much further south than forecast she's not gonna have time to do much of anything...and if she does, she'll have to stall and not make landfall until Tue or Wed (Which is highly unlikely).
We are the NBC affiliate for the Destin area, so give us a look on your visit.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 09:12 PM |
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Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
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To my eye, there really isn't that much shear...I concur with Clark that what we are seeing is the 'hangover' from Frances ingesting the remnant of that ULL over the Bahamas...
Current Shear Map
Notice the very light shear....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 09:14 PM |
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Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
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I think there is a fair chances for this to become 120 mph hurricane again?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 09:15 PM |
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Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend..
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They shifted the track back to the left again...I think he said Indian River area? No, I think it's still Vero Beach. And it's back to taking 24 hours to cross the state.
The met on Channel 9 Orlando mentioned something about a potential turn before it hits the coast, but then said the NHC is adamant about this track. Is a turn to the N/NW possible at this point?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 09:21 PM |
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Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
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Jason-do you or anyone know where i can get a display of the winfield along the forecasted track-the track that was predicted on the 5:00p.m. advisory?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 09:25 PM |
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Mike posted a new Heading....
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FWIW..... there is a new heading posted.... probably good idea to post there
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 09:26 PM |
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Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
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Quote:
Jason-do you or anyone know where i can get a display of the winfield along the forecasted track-the track that was predicted on the 5:00p.m. advisory?
Check www.skeetobite.com in a little while. He's been doing a great job with wind field graphics.
| Cathy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 09:29 PM |
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Re: Vortex Decoding Tool
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WOW - a great tool, thanks for sharing with us!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 09:38 PM |
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Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my....
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Thanks storm hound!!!
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 03 2004 11:47 PM |
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Re: Vortex Decoding Tool
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Wow, that's awesome. I can never remember which line is which and it used to take forever to look everything up!!!!