MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 07:45 PM |
Back and Tracking Ivan
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6:30PM Update:
Recent Ivan recon report shows 943 mb, which is a good pressure drop. Ivan is gaining strength tonight.
From what I can see there is not much to be really all that confident in models for the long term, perhaps tomorrow.
Those with Charley and Frances photos that want to share them, please email them to john@flhurricane.com john is handling the photos.
Original Update
Hurricane Frances has gone through Florida and southern Georgia.
Ivan looks to be bearing down on Jamaica later in the week and crossing Cuba, folks along the gulf coast will want to watch it. Grenada much got the brunt of Ivan and is still reeling from the effects of it.
More to come.
We're back
those asking for a mailing address for donations should use
Mike Cornelius
804 Omni Blvd
Suite 101
Newport News, VA 23606
We'll be updating hardware very soon thanks to all. More recognition will be coming shortly
Hurricane Victims also need help, for sure moreso than me, so groups such as the American Red Cross and the like also could use the help.
Event RelatedLinks
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 08:07 PM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Keep your fingers crossed that this will be the last one for a while. Anyway, good luck with the upgrade. I have a few pics of the flooding around my house in clearwater, so at some point I might post a link to them... not serious flooding, but it looked cool and hopefully I have a couple of ok shots of Tampa bay emptied out of water *chuckles*
take care all
(if you add www. to the link, they work... FYI)
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 08:10 PM |
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Glad to have the site back up and running
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I have been lost without this site. Ivan sure does smell of a north gulf coast storm. May be wishcasting. I just don't want Florida to get this one. They couldn't handle Ivan. It could be the strongest and largest one yet. I hope I am wrong, but I don't think the US will excape this one either.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 08:23 PM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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I still don't see much of a north motion. it wobbled that way earlier today, but has maintained a steady WWNW track.
| TropiGal |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 08:37 PM |
Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Boy am I glad to see this board back up and running. I was going through withdrawal sumpin' awful! I don't know what was worse, Starbucks being closed for 2 days due to Frances or this board being down. It's a toss up.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 08:37 PM |
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Ivan the Terrible
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I have never seen one, in all the years I have been doing this...track so southerly. HAS to hit the Gulf.
HIGH SST's....well....you KNOW what I am fearing...
For once Rick, I'll share your concern...Mobile Bay is as good a bullseye as any right now. Stay Safe!
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 08:39 PM |
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Re: Ivan the Terrible
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Funny, but you may be fairly close on this one. It has consistently been south of the models. If it stays left, then a Lake Charles to PCB landfall as a strong, very very strong hurricane is becoming more likely.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 08:43 PM |
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Re: Ivan the Terrible
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5:00:
** WTNT44 KNHC 082036 ***
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004
TODAY HAS BEEN A HISTORIC DAY FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE/
NATIONAL OCEANIC ATMOPHERIC ADMINISTRATION/NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED
STATES VISITED THE FACILITIES AT MIAMI FLORIDA.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE AND
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 947 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A DISTINCT
EYE...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. IT
APPEARS THAT IVAN IS OVERCOMING THE SHEAR AND HEADING TOWARD A MORE
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE
OCEAN IS NOT AS WARM. THEREFORE SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
IVAN HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING
295 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...KEEPING IVAN ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. IT MUST BE RE-EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72
HOURS CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS.
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS CONTINUES IN THE LATEST 12Z RUN. SOME
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 08:48 PM |
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Re: Ivan the Terrible
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What cooler water are they referring to. Everything I see shows the Gulf having even warmer water than the Caribbean.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 09:00 PM |
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Florida
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As much as I hate to say it, I see Ivan as a Florida problem. Believe me, I DON"T want this to happen. I would love to see Ivan go out to sea and be a fish spinner but that is pretty unlikely. I don't wish this one on anybody but please let me be wrong and it miss Florida. Mike, I will be starting my new job on Monday after being out of work for a long time and I hope to somehow send some dough your way to help out with this wonderful site. Thanks for your hard work!!!
ShawnS
| palmetto |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 09:07 PM |
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Re: Florida
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I'm also seeing a Florida problem, though I desperately don't want to. Even though the panhandle has come away relatively unscathed, I'm growing weary of the entire business. My folks haven't even taken the boards from Frances down--they say they'll wait until after Ivan.
I missed this site so much. You do such good work here--please keep it up!
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 09:38 PM |
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Re: Florida
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Good to have you back Mike. It was tough being down during Frances as I was an IM conduit for some local folks.
Thankfully Frances was not nearly as bad inland as Charley. But I really don't think the state can take another hit in 5-6 days. Already there is moderate to major flooding on every river on the west coast of Florida, and minor to moderate flooding in Central Florida. This is the ultimate worst case scenario I can think of...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 09:42 PM |
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Re: Florida
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I am just sick and tired of the Hurricanes! Buy a house and two months later... whammo! Two canes in a month! I have to say that I've learned a lot more about Tropical weather in the past month than I ever cared to. I am not anxious to spend more time cooped up...
-Brian
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 09:55 PM |
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Ivan
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Another monster hurricane, a CAT 4 and it's not even in the Gulf of Mexico yet. It seems like Florida is a magnet this year for hurricanes, but I don't really know where this one is going. Those Artic highs and troughs start popping up now-a-days and then it blows your forecast right out the window. Thanks Mike for getting the site back up, I'll contribute some money, it's for a good cause!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 09:59 PM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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To see similarities b/t where Charley was and where Ivan is now, go to www.orlandoweather.com and click on the interactive "Atlantic Tracker." (You can view the paths of each hurricane by selecting in the left lower corner.) Pretty crazy!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:04 PM |
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Re: Ivan
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Hey everyone,
Was away and without Internet access since early Saturday, although it looks like this site was also down for some time. Got a lot of catching up to do.
I hope everyone fared OK with Frances, I know she wasn't of the intensity of Charley, but what a duration...was watching TWC the whole weekend.
It's my understanding that there is now an "I" storm out there. I don't think we really need this...Obviously I can't will it up my way, but if there is anything I can do to keep it from striking FL, let me know....seriously...a tremendous THX to Mike for his outstanding work...Mike check the mod forum for my reply...we get about a week reprieve and then hell again.
OK, glad to be back here. If there's any good to come from any of this it's that NO ONE will ever be caught unprepared again (until the next time). You guys are great.
Back later tonight...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:13 PM |
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ivan/onward
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glad to see things online again. not too crowded yet.. with ivan on the way that isn't going to last.
item #1 is ivan. latest recon pegged the pressure down to 943mb... lowest so far. like frances did this storm has the potential to bottom out as a cat 5.. jamaica is likely the only landmass it would get in that state. modeling has been clustering around the florida peninsula as its u.s. impact point for a couple of days now.. globals that melt the ridge periphery down still offering the only out as a cuba-bahamas storm (of course they aren't exactly getting rid of ivan, just slowing the storm down off the southeast coast as the ridge rebuilds by the middle of next week). i'm going to render my idea right now that ivan will hit somewhere on the west coast of florida.. from the keys up to apalachicola.. between late monday and late tuesday as a cat 3/4. the potential for eleventh hour weakening as with frances exists (weakening ridge/shearing environment late in the game). exactly how disruptive jamaica and cuba are also remains to be seen.
other features...
frances is looking less and less tropical as it rides up the appalachians. substantial rain impact felt across much of the atlantic coastal plain, ga/carolina piedmont, and the appalachians.. coming to an end. tornado threat also decreasing. florida got it worst, but with bonnie, charley and gaston having traversed the region in the last month things are quite wet.. ivan's coming is not going to help things.
97L.. persistent disturbance now no longer a tropical feature.. development as a subtropical system unlikely but possible. system has been slowly closing on the azores in a sheared environment, blocked by ridging to the ne, with a trough digging and breaking away to the west. has been tracked since august 30th.. unusual longevity for an invest.
modeling suggests two low-potential areas of development in the subtropics.. northerly flow behind frances into the gulf merging with an easterly wave, with residual ridging. no organization at this point, but eta suggests a trough will develop near the yucatan later this week.
trough forecast to dig, cut off and retrograde near 30n in the central atlantic.. several clusters of convection associated.. slight potential for this low to become deep layer by associating with surface convection, and acquire tropical characteristics.. once it develops.
waves near 45w, 31w.. and newly emerging. the 45w wave has a moderate chance of development... weak ridging aloft, broad circulation.. unfocused, scattered convection also. hasn't changed profile much since tue, moving w-wnw at around 12mph. low model interest. 31w wave not much different in terms of potential, moving w at lower latitude. characteristics similar.
development clock is ticking with isis having developed in the eastpac.. 5-10 days.
glad to see people coming back on. y'all take it easy.
HF 2212z08september
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:14 PM |
Re: Ivan the Terrible
|
Quote:
I have never seen one, in all the years I have been doing this...track so southerly. HAS to hit the Gulf.
HIGH SST's....well....you KNOW what I am fearing...
For once Rick, I'll share your concern...Mobile Bay is as good a bullseye as any right now. Stay Safe!
I have been reading this site for 3 years now and have never posted. I don't know a whole lot about all of the technical stuff, but if I keep reading here, I ought to become fairly intelligent with the weather. Everyone around here "expects" me to be keeping up with whats going on and I have been so lost without this site up. I was mainly concerned with everyone's safety and I hope that all faired well. Believe it or not Citronelle (about 30 miles north of Mobile) gets alot of the higher wind gusts and rain storms. We had a storm about 6 weeks ago that just ripped the car porch off from the house and smashed it where the car usually is and the other end of the house had the vinyl siding and eave torn off. Boy, if I had known all about the 5% wind/hail deductible, I would have surely not filed the claim. We got nothing for the claim. But, we got some pretty good wind gusts 40-45 mph in Citronelle Monday. I am awed at what you people know. You have been so close if not even closer than the local weather channels and The Weather Channel. Thanks to all who make this work. I actually prayed that Frances would go around Florida and come hit us (Mobile) if that is what it took so that they would not get more. My heart and prayers are with all of you in Florida. Just to let you know, I still would rather see Ivan come this way than Florida, you guys have had enough. I think this is quite long enough for my first post. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!!!
| TropiGal |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:19 PM |
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Hebert Box
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Not sure exactly where the Hebert Box #2 is and I'm wondering if Ivan looks like it might be approaching it. Any thoughts?
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:21 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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I AM SOOOOO happy this site is back up.. i am going to try and support financially..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:23 PM |
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Survived
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We lost power with the first wind band that came through.
(roughly 1:30pm Sat)
No damage to house or trees, we got very lucky.
Just as lucky as my landfall guess. N of Ft.Lauderdale - S. of Ft. Pierce.
I have lived in Brevard since 1985 and have never seen this kind of activity. Simply AMAZING
Still to early to tell with Ivan, but I would say it's LA and TX's turn.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:28 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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What did Florida do wrong? When was the last time that we were still 5 to 6 days away from landfall and saying that there was no way out of a storm hitting a certain area? This is insane! I have never seen the models agree this much going 5-6 days out. The only thing in question is if it will hit the west coast of Florida or the east coast of Florida. I would give anything to have Ivan become a CAT 5 and hit my home and mine only to save Florida from another hit. I guess the only thing to do know is pray.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:31 PM |
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Cocoa Beach
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Like I said, I would give anything to have that happen and save Florida. I don't wish this on my friends here in Texas or LA either but it would sure be better than another Florida hit.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:33 PM |
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By the way...
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is there ANY possibility that these models may be missing something and could be wrong?
ShawnS
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:34 PM |
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Re: By the way...
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Quote:
is there ANY possibility that these models may be missing something and could be wrong?
ShawnS
do you havea link to the models
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:36 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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I think box 2 is between 15 & 20, and 80 & 85. If I remember correctly, the box put Fla and the Bahamas at greater risk based on pre-1950 or so data, but didn't mean much between about 1950 and 1999, when Irene went through it.
But I may be remembering that incorrectly. I suspect it's easy to look up.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:39 PM |
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Model data...
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Take them with a grain of salt at this point...the G-IV missions commence soon, and (barring problems like we had with Frances) we should get somewhat firmer data once that gets into the modelling...the first G-IV flights are scheduled for tomorrow.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:51 PM |
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Re: Ivan the Terrible
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I don't understand the NHC 5pm advisory where it says
AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE OCEAN IS NOT AS WARM. THEREFORE SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.
The graphics I've seen have the SST's about 5 degrees warmer. Can someone explain? Thanks.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 10:55 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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I'm not so sure where Herberts Box in terms of lat. longitude but even if a hurricane does pass through it, it doesn't mean it will hit Florida. Many other factors have to be full-filled such as the angle of the approaching hurricane, and the upper-level air patterns around it, etc.
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:07 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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You can find the info here ....... Herbert Box
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:08 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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OH YA, WELCOME BACK CFHC !!!!!!!!!!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:11 PM |
Re: Model data...
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The models already have included some of the G-IV mission data. In fact, this is the lowest Lat. mission ever flown. Please see:
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004
A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET PERFORMED A SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF IVAN LATE YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAD A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IVAN MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ENOUGH FOR ALREADY STORM WEARY PEOPLE IN FLORIDA TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT.
But even a close miss could bring more winds and rains than some area can handle.
OrlandoNative
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:23 PM |
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Re: Model data...
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My bad...I have a post-Frances 'hangover' and am just beginning to get my analysis started on Ivan...I missed that...thanks for pointing that out!
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:27 PM |
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Re: Ivan the Terrible
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Isiodore in 2002 was a very southern track. She was still a depression in about the same spot where Ivan is now, but she gain strength and had everyone questioning her next move. I hope Ivan doesn't pose the same problems she did with forecasting.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:27 PM |
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Models
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Bottom line is that we pretty much ARE looking at some sort of Florida hit!?!?
ShawnS
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:30 PM |
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Re: Models
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Were I a betting man and forced to make a call right now? Yes.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:32 PM |
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Re: Ivan the Terrible
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Most hurricanes in this area of the atlantic are very hard to forecast. There are weak streeing currents, Cuba and Hispanola to interact with, and usually some type of shear effecting the storm. This storm right now is embedded in a deep westerly flow, until it gets out of this wind it's not going anywhere but west.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:32 PM |
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Re: Models
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It is too early to tell. The GFS has Ivan crossing eastern Cuba, the Bahamas and then heading for the fishes.
But my gut feeling is that Florida is in for another hit.
Bill
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:38 PM |
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Re: Welcome Back Flhurricanes
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Welcome back - no rest for the weary and the folks in Florida.
Everyone stay safe and God Bless.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:38 PM |
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Re: Models
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For those of you who are long time weather watchers who live in Florida, I have noticed that Florida Peninsula runs weather patterns over several weeks duration. For example if it rains this sSaturday, it is likely to set up a pattern of raining every Saturday for at least a while. I am thinking that in spite of the fact that these storms are major events even at Cat 1 status, that it is still a weather pattern that has started with Florida being hit every 2 -21/2 weeks and I am afraid that Ivan is elected to continue that pattern, unless some little Ull or surface level low forms between us and Ivan and misleads him into oblivion.
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:40 PM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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I'm so glad this site is back up! I haven't posted before, so here's a little intro. My name is Angie and I am firefighter in Orange County, FL. I live in Lake County, Sorrento to be exact, and we got hit pretty hard with Frances. Orange Co was pummeled by Charley. I was watching the banter going on with you all before Frances and I was educated alot on Hurricanes from you all. Thank You very much. I am scared to death of Ivan. I sent my kids to Virginia to be with family for Frances because I knew my husband and I would be working non stop once the storm cleared out. (He is a firefighter too). Well, my kids are coming home tomorrow and I am so worried because I can't send them back up north. I am stressed out beyond belief. I have been working 100+ hours a week and then having my own damage at home to contend with is overwhelming.
Ugh, I'm sorry to ramble. I just wanted to thank you all for all the info and I will continue to read what you guys say so I can stay informed. I also sent some money to help with the site, albeit, it isn't much, it's the best I can do right now.
Thanks again!!
Angie Robertson
Sorrento, FL
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:51 PM |
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Novice question
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I'm always hearing talk about looking at water vapors. I have looked, but I can't tell anything. My hubby asked me a question and I knew this would be the best place to ask.
When your looking at water vapor, does it indicate a trough or a ridge? Does the hurrricane follow a trough? How do you tell what is steering looking at the water vapor?
Thanks in advance, Southern4sure
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:55 PM |
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Re: Ivan the Terrible
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Latest vortex message from recon has the pressure down to 938, max flight wind 131 kt.
Bill
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 08 2004 11:58 PM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Quote:
I'm so glad this site is back up! I haven't posted before, so here's a little intro. My name is Angie and I am firefighter in Orange County, FL. I live in Lake County, Sorrento to be exact, and we got hit pretty hard with Frances. Orange Co was pummeled by Charley. I was watching the banter going on with you all before Frances and I was educated alot on Hurricanes from you all. Thank You very much. I am scared to death of Ivan. I sent my kids to Virginia to be with family for Frances because I knew my husband and I would be working non stop once the storm cleared out. (He is a firefighter too). Well, my kids are coming home tomorrow and I am so worried because I can't send them back up north. I am stressed out beyond belief. I have been working 100+ hours a week and then having my own damage at home to contend with is overwhelming.
Ugh, I'm sorry to ramble. I just wanted to thank you all for all the info and I will continue to read what you guys say so I can stay informed. I also sent some money to help with the site, albeit, it isn't much, it's the best I can do right now.
Thanks again!!
Angie Robertson
Sorrento, FL
Its good to have you here. I admire you for the work that you obviously were involved in during the hurricanes. I hope things work out well for you and your children through this next week.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:02 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Man... I was getting the shakes! A couple days without this board is just too hard. I'm on a 12 step plan though...
We've been "mapping" away at skeetobite.com. Some new stuff and updated tracks as signifcant changes are released.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:02 AM |
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Re: Ivan the Terrible
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In a way that is good! Maybe it will intensify and reach its peak before landfalling any place else and will be annoying rain only for some one who needs it.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:02 AM |
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Re: Model data...
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Jason- I must say that our girls trip to PCB this past weekend was BEAUTIFUL!!!!!!!! The weather was warm, the sun was shining and the water was flat!
For all of you other Floridians expecting Ivan- my husband is on is way down to Florida to help restock the hardware side of Lowes (flashlights, batteries, etc) and my brother in law is on his way to help restock the lumber side. So, worry not, you will have plenty of supplies if needed for Ivan!
Kelly
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:07 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Glad this site is back. Most level headed intelligent weather board I've run across.
Seen the 8pm public advisory?
Quote:
IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. BONAIRE REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH A FEW HOURS AGO.
'shana
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:12 AM |
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WOW!
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Down to 938mb and up to 145mph and it's not done. It has moved a bit more due west in the last couple of hrs. I know it is just a wobble but let's just hope that maybe,just maybe, it somehow is more of a trend than a wobble so that it would cause a track away from Florida. I know it is a LONG shot at best but it is all there is to hope for.
By the way, I haven't stated this until now but my girlfriend's mom lives in Clearwater and we are very concerned. That is another reason why I have shown such interest and concern over what Ivan is planning on doing. She just moved there from here earlier this year. In joking, I told her when she left that she would be hit by a hurricane this year because she was moving there. I wish I had never opened my big mouth about a hurricane hitting Florida.
ShawnS
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:12 AM |
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happy to see you back
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Really missed being able to check to see what everyone had to say.
I can't tell you how many people who don't know that I post or use this site told me that they use flhurricane .. and were upset it was down.
As for Ivan... a very hard storm to predict. Harder than most.
Bobbi
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: happy to see you back
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>>> As for Ivan... a very hard storm to predict. Harder than most
Agreed bobbi. This new bad boy could strike anywhere from Brownsville (or south) to the Keys (or east). Like JK, though, if you asked me now where it's final US destination is...unfortunately...I would have to say FL West Coast. Entrance at Tampa & Exit at WPB. God I sure hope not.
Since 2004 is breaking all the rules (Brazilian hurricane, 3 Fl hits, late [fairly] start w/record August activity), it's pure speculation at this point. Does anyone remember Aruba under a Hurricane Watch??? This bad boy is SO far south and I just don't see anything preventing it from getting into the GOM in a few days. Good god.
At least there's several days for everyone to get their lives back together (sort of) before we can think about US landfall. Time to start saving up on sleep.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: pretty w/sun
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the sun is setting and has a pretty eye
the eye of ivan
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:28 AM |
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Re: pretty w/sun
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Yes, a major hurricane at sunset is a beautiful and terrifying thing to behold.... And Ivan is no exception.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:31 AM |
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Re: bigger than Frances?
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is Ivan bigger than Frances? storm wise....the width of storm
bigger than Frances?
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:32 AM |
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Re: pretty w/sun
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i am not wish casting but if it to hit florida i hope it hurts the southern part more.. keys south dade??? because all those people in ft. myers-tampa, orlando.. they have had enough.... i hope Ivan spares them.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:32 AM |
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Re: bigger than Frances?
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No, check out Skeetobite's comparison
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:37 AM |
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Re: bigger than Frances?
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um... what's the latest link.... the last i saw was from 5am..... its changed in 12hrs and i think we keep getting bigger...poor cuba!
last one i saw
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:42 AM |
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Re: bigger than Frances?
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If it were not so close to South America, I think it would already be as big as Frances, but at least a thrid of it is over land right now. And it has exploded on IR in the last couple of hours. I would not be surprised if it is a cat5 at 11 PM. As GG said earlier, hopefully it will burn itself out over water and not stay at such a high intensity as it approaches land.
Bill
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:43 AM |
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Re: happy to see you back
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Your right Bobbi these storms are very difficult to predict, as I said in a earlier post. This hurricane seems to be wobbling just like Frances, right know it tracking more north of west than just west. This storm could make a sharp turn to the north and then surprise us all, or remain traveling west northwest and entering the GOM and causing mass destruction. Bottom line is that the storm is very potent and will continue to increase in strength, maybe even breaking some records.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:43 AM |
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Re: pretty w/sun
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it looks like hell to me!
care to clarify that last statement? hell as in shot to s--t, or hell as in a whole world of hurt?
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:48 AM |
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Re: pretty w/sun
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Great to see the site up again. Im still tired of Frances and now theres already a Cat 4/Borderline 5 "expected" to make it into the Gulf. That just makes my stomach drop. Never had that feeling during a season. What makes it worse is that there is actually a chance this could come very near me and other residents of the Central Gulf Coast. I'd say landfall between N.O to Tampa for now as most recurving gulf storms take that path. I sure hope this season lays to rest the stupid comments every year around July like, "seasons over, hurricane cancel, and the many others I see on other sites". when there havent been many storms....Whelp everyone get some rest, got some more busy times ahead. Everyone have a great evening.
| docjoe |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:54 AM |
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Re: happy to see you back
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I believe in 1993 Bret skirted right along the northern coast of South American although I dont recall if it ever reached hurricane strength. BTW this is my first post here. I have been visiting the site for awhile though. Far and away the best site of its type I have seen. Kudos to all....and keep the Ivan info coming. I live about 10 miles inland in Santa Rosa county and definitely am watching this one.
joe
Welcome aboard DocJoe!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:54 AM |
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Re: Ivan
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looks to be going through a eye wall replacement.... the cloud tops around the eye are amazing!
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:00 AM |
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11:00 ADVISORY
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What are your thoughts on the 11:00 advisory? Do you think theres much change?
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:03 AM |
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Re: Glad to have the site back up and running
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Thank Goodness !!! Jeez, I missed this site; I've probably checked a dozen times a day to see if it was back up. I was NOT looking forward to going through Ivan next week without everyone here !! I lurked on this board for several years before getting brave enough to post. It is the first place I look for storm info............... my husband often gets tired of my saying, "but the board said"
OK, I'm going to paypal now to send in all of my ebay money so the site can stay up !! Then I'll go catch up on the posts. Wait............ on second thought, maybe I'll go catch up first (in case it goes back down) !!
Welcome back y'all !!!!!!!!!!!!!
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:04 AM |
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Re: 11:00 ADVISORY
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Seems like it may change direction soon..
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:14 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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For a good comparison of a low-track storm, here is Hurricane Joan from 1988:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198811.asp
Formed not long after the immense Gilbert.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:18 AM |
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Re: 11:00 ADVISORY
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WELCOME BACK to the board !!!! YEA!!!!!
I expect the 11pm advisory to possibly upgrade the winds in Ivan. since the pressure has been dropping since this afternoon.
THe models seem to be moving farther Eastward but I'm not sure that they have a good handle on this one yet.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:22 AM |
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MUST READ!!!!!
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http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html
VERY INTERESTING! MAYBE A WAY OUT FOR FLORIDA! LET"S HOPE SO ANYWAY!
ShawnS
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:24 AM |
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East coast damage
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Just got back from a trip to Melbourne. Drove up A-1-A on the way back to the Orlando area. Had to take my son back to the ex-wife, so I wasn't just gawking.
Here's my thoughts.
Surprisingly, Cocoa Beach took a lot more of a hit than points on my drive further south. I started at Indiatlantic, just east of Melbourne, on A-1-A. Melbourne didn't look too bad. Traffic lights down, some trees and some signs. One church had almost its entire eastern side taken off, but other than that, Downtown Orlando looked 10 times worse after Charley.
Same story on A-1-A in Indiatlantic, Indian Harbour Beach and Satellite Beach, although much more structural damage to homes. Didn't see any roofs off, just lots of awning and shingles. Most of the trees and sea grapes were stripped of their folliage and were basically bunches of brown sticks.
The damage starting getting worse near Patrick Air Force base. One building on the base was demolished. I also started to see sand build up on the road, signifying the surge had breeched the dunes here.
Approaching Cocoa Beach, the damage became worse. Roofs were off several buildings, signs were blown out. Stopped off at the beach and the house next to the walkway had their entire backyard covered in sand. It was at least two feet deep on their back wall. Sand splatters covered the house.
The worse damage was to the church on A-1-A. Probably most have seen the steeple that broke off and stuck upside down in the roof. The pictures aren't anywhere close to seeing it live. The other massive damage was to the bank building where A-1-A comes back to being a four-lane road heading north. Several of the windows were blown out and part of the building was torn off.
Moving towards SR 528, the damaged tapered off, but that may have been because it was further from the beach. Didn't see a lot of trees down on the Bee Line until I got to near the airport and I believe most of those trees were down during Charlie.
The St. John's looked swollen, but not as much as I thought it would be. I've seen it that high before, but maybe the flood waters haven't hit yet.
Anyway, that's my report. Any thoughts on why Cocoa might have been hit harder than Melbourne, which was 30 miles closer to the center?
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:26 AM |
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Re: 11:00 ADVISORY
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Theres a person on this board I think his name is scottvb something like that, hes good with these storms.Sure would like to have his input. I noticed that he posted on the temp forum gatorpond. Scottvb where are you?
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:32 AM |
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Re: bigger than Frances?
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While the overall growth of Ivan appears impressive in satellite images, so far there has been no change in the wind field dimensions as reported by NHC.
If there is a change at 11pm, we'll make an updated comparison map.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:35 AM |
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Hurricane Alley Spaghetti Run
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I found a new place to get the Spaghetti Model run from hurricane Alley - here is a direct link to the image. And this is the site where is comes from. It also has some other useful graphics.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:41 AM |
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Re: bigger than Frances?
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First, it is soooooooo good to have the site back up!
Now as far as "The Russian Bear" Ivan...Just a gut feeling tells me one of three things as far as landfall...
1) Ivan goes between the west tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula and heads for a Texas lanfall anywhere from Brownsville to Houston landfall...
2) Ivan goes over Cuba and pays Fidel a visit in Havana and then heads northwestward for a Mid GOM coast landfall anywhere from FWB, Fla to NoLa
3) Ivan does a Charley/Frances of sorts, heads over Havana and goes northward to make landfall where Frances did and straddles the AL/GA border causing a large bit of damage again in the Atlanta Metro area..
One disclaimer though---I do reserve the right to change this predicition as late as Friday by 5pm
Those are my three guesses, but one thing I'm pretty confident about is Ivan will not be a fish pureer....
>>> fish pureer....
um...what is a fish pureer?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:45 AM |
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Jeffmidtown
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I can tell you right now that your #1 option can be thrown out the window. That will not happen! The other two are definite possibilities.
ShawnS
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:46 AM |
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Re: bigger than Frances?
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Ivan has got to be close to a Cat V tonight.
Just look at this very healthy hurricane.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:50 AM |
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Models
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The GFS was too far to the right on Frances, and that trend seems to be continuing. I will give it high marks for consistency though. It has (for several runs) taken it east of Florida, and then looped it back into the mid atlantic. With a storm like this, it is my opinion that the farther east solutions are going to be hard to achieve. I still expect it to end up in the NW Caribbean. Gilbert never was able to make the predicted turn, and it intensified rapidly after hitting Jamaica. If my memory is correct, it was about 135 mph over Jamiaca, and stregthened to 888 mil. and 180 mph after that.
The ULL looks to be moving away faster than Ivan is approaching. It may be enhancing the outflow, and the eyewall now looks like a perfect doughnut. I think this is Cat 5 by 11 pm. This also might make it harder to turn, although it looks to have wobbled back to the right on the last pic.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:53 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Ah, nice to see the site back. Ivan's a monster out there....yet also a beautiful storm to behold. Certainly strengthening tonight, I don't think we'll see any bump in the winds at 11pm -- but tomorrow is another story. The turn north hasn't happened yet, which is actually a bad thing for the US (unless it never does turn north).
I'll have more on Friday for you all about the storm, but everyone in the Gulf needs to watch this. Most model guidance says eastern Gulf, but those from Biloxi west need to be watching it too. If pressed for an asnwer though, Florida is the most likely spot...again. This time, probably the panhandle, most likely the western panhandle, but I'll have the chance to look at it more by then and narrow things down. Until then...just sit back and watch -- and if you are on the coast, it wouldn't hurt to get prepared now, as three days from landfall, people will be going crazy getting ready considering what this year has already brought.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:53 AM |
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Wobble...
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and back to the left again on the latest pic.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:54 AM |
Re: bigger than Frances?
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I would have to agree with you. It looks like we go to the same sites. Let me know if you need any: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/links.html ,,http://www.weather.com/?from=globalnav,, http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/,, http://www.noaa.gov/index.html,, http://www.hurricanealley.net/,,http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm6+shtml/032058.shtml?,, http://images.flhurricane.com/,,http://www.skeetobite.com/,, http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html,, http://www.hurricanecity.com/,, http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/,, http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/index.asp?partner=accuweather,, http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm,, http://www.hurricanehollow.com/models.html,, http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:57 AM |
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something you don't see to often
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very useful site..... hope fla is spared
totally off topic saw this today....
kewl pic
An HH-60H Seahawk, from Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron Four (HS-4), keeps an eye on a nearby vessel and a waterspout in the South China Sea, off the coast of Malaysia, Sept. 5, 2004. DoD photo by Photographer's Mate Airman Richard R. Waite, U.S. Navy.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:01 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Its good to have you back too! Always nice having a pro around.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:09 AM |
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Accuweather Track
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The Accuweather track is taking the system right up the west coast. take a look. I guess JB makes forecast for Accuweather.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:17 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Hi all, yes i posted on gatorpond( the temp forum this morning). Thanks again to the emails I recieved from people on my calls on Frances all the way to landfall 5 days out on Martin county. On gatorpond I give some reasons to my forcasting. I hope everyone gets the power back up and the flooding subsides asap.
I will only give a brief note on Ivan right now as I did on the other forum. The NHC pretty much has this down pat thru 72/84 hours thru Jamaica area--thru Cayman Islands to just N of western Cuba in 84-96 hours. GFS is the outliner right now and CMC will be off in the next 48 hours as it continues to show lack of troughiness in the medium range till it gets to the central gulf. Currently the Nogaps has been the most consistant with the global models followed by the Ukmet. I suspect the GFS to swing more to the left over the next couple of runs. I wont give a call yet on landfall area after 3 days here as the steering currents will be weak. Everyone on both sides of Florida - Mobile need to keep a eye on this,, especially western florida. Will post a landfall area by friday.
scottsvb pegged frances' track closely 3 1/2 days out from florida... he may be on a roll. -HF
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:18 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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What am I, chopped liver??? LOL
Yes, I am glad to see Clark make his return as well...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:20 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Hey, scottsvb,
Thanks for posting...just one question...if you had to pick a landfall location and strength, right now, what would you say? A lot of people are relying on you! Please take a shot...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:25 AM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Jamiewx -- that's pretty much the same track as the NHC. I'd imagine it's probably the same forecast, as deviations from the official path without clearly noting that they are not the official track forecast issuers are frowned upon.
With Ivan -- I've looked at a few more things here, and here's what I think as of now. Frances steering away will help to draw Ivan ever so slightly northward, probably in 12-24hr, as will a slight weakness in the ridge to it's north. The ridge to it's north is consolidating near Bermuda as opposed to further south, which in itself should allow a bit more northward motion. The trough currently entering the west has a punch to it, but it's awfully far to the north and I don't see it being able to punch downward far enough to completely turn the storm. The current flow pattern favors a gradual movement towards the southeast/south central Gulf, followed by some more movement northward, and I don't really see much to change this drastically.
Ivan should end up crossing extreme western Cuba in about 4 days, possibly also crossing the Isle of Youth. I think it just might miss Jamaica to the south. Projected time frame from the NHC looks good; if anything, I'd bump up the times a few hours, but that's not of much concern right now. It's too early to narrow a landfall point down, but I'd place highest odds on the region between Apalachicola and Biloxi, with slightly lower odds from Apalachicola eastward to Ft. Myers. I don't see this missing the coast and the Gulf. Those in the western Gulf should pay heed to this as well -- the longer this goes west, the more the danger to them increases.
Intensity -- with the current environment, strong outflow and an upper-low to the west to exhaust the storm, I don't see any reason why some further strengthening is not possible. I think most of it will occur as we get a bit closer to Jamaica and that intensity fluctuations will primarily be controlled by eyewall replacement cycles, but low-end 5 is not out of the realm of possibility. I mentioned this possibility awhile back on the temp board and still believe in it, albeit we're much further to the west now. I think Ivan is probably close to peaking for the time being, followed by some slight weakening (which may or may not end up reflected in the actual intensity products from the NHC), then perhaps another rampup after the next eyewall replacement cycle.
Of note is that the stronger the storm gets, the natural tendency is for the storm to gradually gain latitude. There exists a balance between the pressure gradient force, or how strong the difference is between a high and a low, and the coriolis force, which is the atmosphere's contribution to the spin of a storm. If the storm gets stronger, the pressure gradient force goes up as the pressure gradient tightens. As such, the Coriolis must increase, which leads to the storm to drift a bit further north.
Bottom line -- be prepared for anything.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:27 AM |
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early take
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ignoring the dynamic models that show quick recurvature, not interested in the gfs (other than the storm getting caught off the east coast.. think that means something, if not it's literal interpretation).. rest of the globals which are harping on jamaica to western cuba to the west coast of florida... have my attention.
instead of focusing on five days from now, going to think of future events as a trickle-down effect from what happens between now and saturday. if the storm goes right of jamaica.. the storm be a south/east coast of florida to hatteras threat. probably a cat 3.
run it over or just west of jamaica and the storm will be a fluctuating cat 3/4 threat for the west coast of florida.. this is where my confidence is right now... though it may be mimicking frances and weakening late in the game.
further west (like, yucatan channel) and the storm's potential spread is from the panhandle to north mexico. in this scenario, likely an irregular track and unpredictable timeframe. there's also that far out shot at ivan keeping to the far left and plowing into central america.. doesn't fly in my mind, but it's happened enough so that i never casually remove the prospect from mind.
jamaica may be hit by a category 5 hurricane on friday. this is not good.
HF 0226z09september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:29 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Alot of people are relying on me? Well I hope not. Even though I usually get most of the systems right I'Im human and did get Earl wrong. I cant give ya a exact point right now cause its not good forecasting to give a call on 5 days out. I do at time but thats when the steering currents are more obvious. Lets just say what I posted above in the 84hour time frame. Clark said it right on that its a wait and see and Friday we will have a good idea on the 3 day landfall forecast.
Amazingly, scottsvb, that's what we all thought
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:30 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Good to see you back Clark, always love to read your post. Keep up the good work. Also, please keep the words Ivan, landfall and western flordia panhandle out of the same sentence for the sake of all here just kiddin with ya, nothing we can do about it LOL people are already preparing and all my teachers are thinking this will be a big one here. I dont want to agree with them, but I think if there will be any trend, its gonna be further west from where the models are now. Good for the West coast of FL, bad for some Gulf Coasters. Lets keep are fingers crossed maybe he'll die a quick death. But for the meantime, very beautiful storm over the open waters, just like I like'em.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:31 AM |
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Re: bigger than Frances?
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Hey there, I'm glad the site is back up (though, I evacuted CB when it was a Cat 4 and came back Tuesday to no cable/internet access until this afternoon). Expect a donation as soon as I set up a Paypal account, and by the way, anybody who reads or posts here should donate to this cause, as well as to those affected by the hurricanes.
It's been a crazy past week for all Floridians. I evacuted to Tampa, only to find that the eye passed over us (or center with calm winds) and the road our hotel is on totally flooded over with zero access to the westbound lanes. Back in Cocoa Beach, I've never seen damage of this sort in this area. The only event that I can compare it to was when I saw Andrew's devistation, a totally and wholly different story. Many beach-front homes sanded over, looks like snow on palm trees from a distance, and of course, the church is a totally surreal sight. Good luck, God-bless, and God-speed to all those who are badly affected by these storms. I was luckly, having little structural damage, aside from a couple shingles blown, but consequently, having fences down and a yard filled and stacked with various flora, foilage, and fronds taking a good two days worth of work. Out of all the stress it's caused though, I think Frances will be remembered most for the model's total inability to firmly grasp the motion and future of France, even if they had the general direction.
Looking to Ivan, I certainly agree that it looks Cat 5 status, having a resemblence to Mitch and Gilbert. As for forecasting and wishcasting, I hope that it doesn't hit Florida, because we can't take any more, but it too early to tell. We'll see the latest update and track soon...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:32 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Hey Jason -- Frances really turned out to be a doozy here in the Panhandle, eh? We didn't end up going out to follow the storm, citing flooding concerns, but Ivan may prove to be another story.
I'm just glad the site is back -- the days without checking up from everyone were long!
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:34 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Wow this is getting better and better! We have another pro back! Im sooooo glad this place is back to normal.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:35 AM |
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Re: East coast damage
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Thanks for the travelogue--my house is in Satellite Beach but I'm in NH at the moment. We are 4 blocks west of A1A and just lost a few shingles, a tree I wanted down anyway, and a couple sections of fence. Yet our neighbors diagonally across the street had major roof damage and the inside is virtually flooded. And their house supposedly was built to withstand 150mph winds. Go figure.
My theory on Cocoa damage is age of construction and roof style:from what I have seen (albeit at a distance and through my friend's eyes) is that a higher percentage of flatter roofs were damaged. That roof style was most popular in the 50's and 60's, when many of Cocoa's structures were built. By contrast, my house has a hip roof, which supposedly withstands high winds better, and the average age of structures in Sat Beach, IHB, etc are probably newer than Cocoa Beach, which saw heavy development in the early days of the space program. Just some ideas from a lay person who probably has no clue...
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:38 AM |
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Re: pretty w/sun
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whole world of hurt. the storm looks too good! The weather this year is eerie.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:38 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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Never really rained that much here...got about half an inch in Panama City..max wind gust came in that first feeder band on SUNDAY...(51mph at the PFN airport).
New disco from Jack Beven is in....
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:40 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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11 PM Discussion in.. Track Shifted right..
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:43 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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As others have already said, I have been lost without this forum for the past several days. I look to you guys for much needed insight on these storms.
As for Ivan, I really don't know how much more we can take here in Central FL. My house is starting to show troubles brewing. During Frances, my roof started leaking...and with today's normal afternoon thunderstorm, new leaks are popping up. Strangely, there is no visible damage outside (ie..shingle loss etc). My pool deck is shattered from falling trees and the fence is now completely gone. Thanks to Frances, I now have a 75 foot pine tree lying across the back...roots high in the air. The normally placid creek behind my property is a raging river now over 15 feet deep. It is within a foot or two from going over the banks (something it has never done in the 28 yrs I have lived in this house). If Ivan pays a visit here, I fear I may suffer truly severe damage.
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:43 AM |
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Major Hurricanes..Major Winter?
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Eerie can not capture in words what this summer is. First the major rain stroms of June with the flooding of NJ and then the stalled cold front, back to back tropical storms and the flooding of the rest of the east coast thanks to those three, and then Frances and the never-ending storm. Now Ivan. is looking to be a Cat 5 contender
Wonder what winter will bring...
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:54 AM |
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Re: Major Hurricanes..Major Winter?
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scary thought! You guys will probably think im crazy but I have had more strange dreams these last 2 weeks than it seems like ever before. One was that this newest one Ivan got so powerful like a 6 or something crazy and went from west to east directly across the big bend area and literally ripped florida minus the panhandle away from the rest of the country! I know this is not possible but you know how dreams are. Really a weird one.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:00 AM |
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Re: East coast damage
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Hey Gailmm...glad to hear your house did ok. I was posting the updates from S. Merritt Island until we lost power. We also faired well, we didn't even lose a shingle (we have miami-dade rated shingles and I guess they stood the test). You are correct about the flat roofs - I saw so many of them ripped off. Also many gable roofs failed. You are correct about the hip roofs being stronger, that is why I choose that roof style - the wind blows and it actually helps hold the sheathing in place. With flat roofs you get uplift.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:06 AM |
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My initial thoughts....
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Well, been studiing Ivan for several hours and here is what I have gleaned so far.
1) This is a GOM storm.
2) This is very near definately a Florida landfalling storm (the furtherest west I could place it at this point is Biloxi...and that is a stretch)
3) If pressed to make a call, I'd have to say the western peninsula is the most likely location....but this is extremely low confidence, and I am vaciliating between that and a Panhandle strike. The model guidance is not definative, to say the least...while I recognize why NHC is further right in this advisory, I am not in total agreement. Remember that NHC is using a model blend to come up with their track and not the 'best performing' model...this is a pretty good technique for trends, but not the best for nailing down an exact location, especially when the track spread is wide. The hinge is the trough, and the eventual impact on the track. The good news is that, as outlined in Beven's 11pm disco, there should be at least some slight weakening prior to landfall, but this might not be enough to significantly weaken it.
All residents of Florida should be watching very closely this week (as if they weren't already).
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:07 AM |
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I'm back / Frances Stats.
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Hi Everyone,
I am back after 4 days of having no power, no phone, no cell phone, a limited water supply and raw sewage pouring into my street. All in all my house weathered the storm well compared to my neighbors. In my neighborhood, there are tons of trees down, shingles off most homes, roof damage to many others, screen enclosures ripped apart, most fences down, signs all down, traffic signals all out, etc. I was in the southern eyewall for 5-6 hours straight on Saturday night. The wind just roared at hurricane force for all those hours. It is amazing how loud it is in a house all boarded up. Almost all of Palm Beach County was without power during the storm. Half of the county is still out after 5 days. I am one of the lucky ones to get power back. We still have a night time curfew, most traffic signals still out, stores closed, schools closed until next week, gas lines every place, etc., etc. My backyard weather station recorded a peak gust of 89 mph, a minimum pressure of 28.85" and 9.56" of rainfall. Of course the station was off the air for the height of the storm, so it came to keeping the stats the old fashioned way by pen and paper. Hope everyone else weathered the storm well. Pictures to come soon.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:09 AM |
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NWS Tampa Earlier Discussion
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".LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WED)...HERE WE GO AGAIN? LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE DEALING WITH IVAN BY THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AS USUAL ALL ELEMENTS OF UPPER RIDGING AND TROUGHING WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR US TO BE NAILED. UNFORTUNATELY...CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
IT AFFECTING FLORIDA SOMEWHERE. WILL BE ABLE TO FOCUS MORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO AS WE ALWAYS SAY...STAY TUNED."
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:14 AM |
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the state of Ivan
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Last photos seem to show a slightly north of west motion, and the last picture now shows the eye has cleared out. I am wondering if an ERC has completed. I am guessing the winds will be increased by Thur. morning, since the increase in winds should spin down as a result of the sharp pressure drop earlier. It is still hard to believe the models keep shifting right. Not that I trust the ETA at this point, but at 84 hours, it has a track to the left of the others. I am thinking this will end up in the eastern GOM, but Charley was a good reminder that even short range forecasts can be challenging.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:15 AM |
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Re: My initial thoughts....
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Nice analysis Jason. So if you think a Biloxi landfall is a stretch, that'd mean Pensacola wouldnt be at to much more of a risk I'd hope? I just have a bad feeling about this one. Just seems like the storm with the most damage potential so far this year, and I dont want nothin to do with it. I dont wish it on anybody else though, so I feel bad because someones gonna get it...bad unfourtanetly. Hopefully we'll see some weakening prior to landfall rather than strengthening. So I guess all along the GC, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Goodnight
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:26 AM |
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Re: My initial thoughts....
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I'd say that Pensacola is a lot more at risk than BIX, but lower than other parts of FL....however, a strike in your area certainly is possible.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:26 AM |
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Re: My initial thoughts....
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Just got through watching Glenn Burns our local met on WSB-TV and had the 11pm track from the NHC in which he said that the storm was supposed to hit just south of Tampa and cross over the state through Orlando and when I saw it, I felt my stomach drop to the floor.
Anyone who reads and contributes to these boards, please say a prayer for this monster not to hit Florida, because I just don't know how much more that state can take.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:28 AM |
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Re: Back and Tracking Ivan
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New map based on 11pm.
Also, true scale comparison. Seems that Ivan gets stronger and stronger, but the wind fields don't grow!?
Skeetobite.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:34 AM |
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Re: East coast damage
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Thanks for explaining what I thought I was observing. I remember reading that about hip roofs and it's one of the reasons we settled on the house we bought. Course, we're weird-we also looked at hurricane records to help us decide where we wanted to settle, though we fell in love with the area and probably would have bought there anyway. Joke's on us, huh?
Glad you made it through ok too. When it comes time to re-roof, we'll get those bad boy Dade shingles.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:49 AM |
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Re: My initial thoughts....
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Geez thats Manatee county! To soon to tell. round and round and round she goes where she'll make landfall who knows! Can you imagine having no mets or technology to inform us? I bet people from early era were devastated by hurricanes. no preparation nothing just whammo! Pretty scary
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:04 AM |
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Re: My initial thoughts....
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there is a new thead posted about 1 hour ago,,,plz go there,,ty.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:05 AM |
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Before satellite data
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And here's an extreme example of why we're lucky to know where the storm is...
The 1900 Galveston Hurricane