MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:41 AM |
Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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Ivan is looking absolutely astounding on the satellite images tonight.. A Category 4 borderline 5 (forecast to become a 5 now). The central dense overcast around the eye is perfect at the moment. Luckily I don't think it'll hold this intensity long.
Note: Still category 4 as of 11PM:
Although, unfortunately, think it will be on the high end of the major hurricane scale as it approaches Jamaica.
Right now the track puts it over cuba, and once again into the Gulf of Mexico west of Florida. This is a larger system, like Frances. So it is likely effects may be felt across a wider area. The forecast track shifted a bit right at 11PM tonight as well. Hopefully it'll keep shifting right and go out to sea and miss the US entirely.
It still has a chance to meander to the west and avoid the gulf, but the more likely scenario is for it to head over cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Which would unfortunately put the western coast of Florida and the rest of the Gulf coastal regions in watch mode again.
If it were to approach Florida it would come in again at an odd angle, causing warnings up and down the coast similar to Charley (if not longer). The areas hit by Charley will be under the gun, and likely Tampa again. I hope, for Florida's sake. It decides to ditch the idea of a vacation there. Venice, Punta Gorda, Ft. Myers, Key West, Sarasota, Tampa and the panhandle are the models current destinations. Not again!
The islands of the Caribbean, Mexico and the Gulf states need to watch Ivan over the next week -- especially Florida. (Again.. I just hope we don't strikeout)
I don't think it will be a category 5 when it makes landfall, however.
Event RelatedLinks
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:52 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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I don't want to be an alarmist because I know those model forecasts are just educated guesses but 120hours out puts that Ivan right on Tampa Bay longitude and latitude. That is waaay too close for comfort considering the flooding that we have gone through this week. The winds are also a wee bit strong. Hopefully the computer models are just shaking out the crumbs from the last pack of peanut butter crackers that the forecasters were munching on during the power outages from charley and Frances, otherwise, we are going to be in a really really sticky mess about Monday into Tuesday 9/13-9/14. My offices already have a leaky roof thanks to Charley/Frances one-two punch.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:58 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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I worked on two houses today with leaky roofs.
One in the Daytona beach area and the other in the Deltona area N. of Orlando.
There are thousands of roofs with leaks in them alll over Florida.
BTW, Tampa did NOT get hit with Charley. It was Frances that caused a lot of rain and flooding in the bay area.
Some parts of Polk county on the other hand did experience Charley. Charley was a very small compact storm compared to Frances and Ivan.
I'm wondering how far the tracks will keep moving East.
At this rate, the Bahama's wil be out of harms way soon
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:03 AM |
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Models
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I find it odd that the further west Ivan goes the further east the tracks go. I'm starting to wonder if there may not be some BIG surprises in store these next few days. More than likely not, but you never know.
ShawnS
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:03 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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I know this is not an insurance board.. But figure some may know the answer. If I had damage to my roof that caused leakage from Charlie, and I got it temporary fixed and the fix blew off (actually twice once during a thunderstorm) during Frances, will the the water damage I received during Frances require another deductible? My adjuster came to my house 2 days after the hurricane, but never got on my roof and he is comming back tommorow to look at things again.. Still have not received a penny or any reports or info from Adjuster. I had to hire a public adjuster.. Anyways sorry I am off topic. Figured a response would help others too..
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:05 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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Insurance claims are a mess. Last I heard was the damage from Charley and Frances were seperate instances and you had to pay the deductable for each event. Can't combine them.
| rolaren |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:07 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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Hi, I'm new here, nice site you have!
I'm just learning about all this stuff and it really scares me seeing Ivan's latest models putting it right into Tampa.
If it stayed at a 4 and hit Tampa, how bad would it be in the Kissimmee/Orlando area? I saw a thing on accuweather that wants to aim the eye right across FL like Charley went.
Thanks for any insights...
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:15 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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Okay listen here, Ivan. The Gulf Coast has had ENOUGH rain, winds, and warnings to last us for the next 50 years. Sit and spin you squally bastard until there's no spin left in you. Die. Die fast, die painfully, just die. Okay that was my wishcast, folks.
I used to love hurricanes. Well not the effects, but I used to love to watch them come and go, meander, wind, twist, strengthen, weaken, everything. I have been watching, plotting, and enjoying their antics since my first experience with one as a child in Naples, FL. But right now, I'm tired. I'm tired of cleaning up. I'm tired of plotting, I'm tired of worrying.
Between myself and my parents through both hurricanes Charley and Frances we have lost: In Abaco, a dock, shed, all vegetation inundated with salt water, a porch, half a roof, and massive flooding. In Arcadia, 1/4 of a roof, 7 large oaks, a barn, a shed, all fencing, a hunting cabin (split in half right down the middle. Odd looking! Had to get that info aerial, can't even get in there for so many trees down and so much water.) We've lost crops in both FL and TN due to the flooding. In Palmetto, all canvas from out boat ripped to shreds, but she's still floating!
Yes, we feel blessed to have our lives, but I'm beginning to wonder if it isn't "three strikes and you're out".
I don't think I'll ride this one out if it comes folks. I felt the floor rise up and go down under me during Charley's ride through Arcadia. I don't think I can do it again. I'm renaming Ivan.
I-Van-Outta-Here
-Bev
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:56 AM |
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Insurance Claims Question
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Actually, there is a fine line of definition with the double deductible for the two storms. You mentioned you have roof damage sustained from Charley. If Frances worsened an already existing condition, there is only ONE deductible. If however, you have two separate damages, then the deductible would be applied twice. Unfortunately, I fall into that second category. I had my fence destroyed by Charley...but no structural damage to the house....that is one claim with a deductible. Frances damaged my roof which will require a second claim...since the roof is unrelated to the fence damage, I am socked for two deductibles.
Hope that clarified the situation for you. One other note, while on the topic of insurance. The officials are actually broadcasting to the folks here in Florida that it would be better to wait until AFTER Ivan rolls through to file a claim for damages. That way, all the damages would be lumped as one claim with a single deductible. (Who's to tell the adjuster what came from Frances and what was done by Ivan>??)
--Lou
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:09 AM |
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Re: Models
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The new GFS is out to 90 hours now, and it looks to have shifted quite a bit to the left. It has it crossing central Cuba. We'll have to see if this is the beginning of a model trend, in which case, I still feel the GFS is still too far to the right. This has the potential to affect not only the Gulf Coast/SE US, but could eventually continue north to areas that have seen enough rain to last the rest of the year and then some. Where I am in NJ, we had almost 7 inches last month, and 10 miles north of me, there was the 13" event over several hours a couple of months ago. My area got less than 2" that day. The problem is, the wetter it is, the less wind it takes to knock trees down. Even if this were to affect an area like Virginia, still as a tropical storm, I would bet that the wind damage would be equivalent to a stronger system. First things first, no one knows where it will make landfall. My guess is still in the eastern GOM. If it does go over central Cuba, it would be harder for it to recover. Not that you want it to hit anywhere, but I think Fla. has had enough to last a long time.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:14 AM |
| Attachment |
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NHC Forecast Error....
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This is a map done by a talented young man on the talkweather.com forums by the name of Matt Grantham...he has given me permission to repost it here, and Mods, you can use it in the headlines section if you like.
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:14 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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Yup. Feeling like a deer in the headlights. Arcadia has no shelters left to open. That trough over the mid west better stay right where it is. Either that or we all line up on the beach and blow.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:20 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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Great to see the site back, and a few may know now that Ivan is a Cat 5. A slow start but that changed in a hurry and the panhandle has been real lucky but I really don't mind seeing Nov 30 coming... if that will mean anything.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:37 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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Wow , this has been one heck of a season, out of nine named storms 4 have been major hurricanes., 3 have made it to CAT 4 and now we have the first CAT 5 at a whopping 160 MPH. I feeling the effects of Francis right now in NE Ohio and while the winds are only 25-35 MPH, it is still scary, I cannot imagine what it would be like with major sustained hurricane force winds.
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:38 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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I have the opportunity to go to Naples on Sunday to board up and ride out the storm in a condo, which is located about 100 yards off the beach. I'd be paid to do this - and all expenses taken care of by the condo's owner. Any thoughts on taking on such an endeavor? The condo itself is located on the 2nd story of a 10 story building. It has no storm shutters, however is partially protected by mangroves.
I am also not sure how I should even think about getting there from the airport as the first floor is the "parking lot" and there would certainly be a loss or high probability of damage to any car I would rent...so I suppose it's a taxi. I would intend on bringing all supplies (minus plywood) with me as luggage.
So...call me crazy or lucky...what do you think of such an endeavor?
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 09:17 AM |
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Ding ding ding! Florida may take another one...
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/090853.shtml?
Latest forecast track cuts this one right through the eastern part of Florida. The models that were east are coming west, those west are coming east. Things seem to be coming into agreement now. You can definitely tell the high pressure to the NE of Ivan has relaxed this morning. The storm is really starting to gain some latitude now.
This could be an incredible storm if the latest NHC track verifies. I'll try to analyze this a little more this afternoon, time permitting.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 10:33 AM |
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Re: Ding ding ding! Florida may take another one...
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| Jeanine |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 10:37 AM |
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Re: Ding ding ding! Florida may take another one...
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Hi Everyone,
We started getting relaxed last night and low and behold this a.m, yeh ding, ding ding, I've had to look twice. This has to be a joke! Sorry, I think many people are going to be shocked when they wake up and see the news. I know its still 4-5 days out but still. Not trying to be a alarmist, just really scared!
Thank you for this site guys! Cant remember password
Jeanine
Hollywood, FL
e-mail mike at: mike@flhurricane.com and he'll retrieve your pword or give you a temp
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 11:14 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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Quote:
I have the opportunity to go to Naples on Sunday to board up and ride out the storm in a condo, which is located about 100 yards off the beach. I'd be paid to do this - and all expenses taken care of by the condo's owner. Any thoughts on taking on such an endeavor? The condo itself is located on the 2nd story of a 10 story building. It has no storm shutters, however is partially protected by mangroves.
I am also not sure how I should even think about getting there from the airport as the first floor is the "parking lot" and there would certainly be a loss or high probability of damage to any car I would rent...so I suppose it's a taxi. I would intend on bringing all supplies (minus plywood) with me as luggage.
So...call me crazy or lucky...what do you think of such an endeavor?
I don't think you want to be any part of being 100 yards off shore for a Cat 4 or 5. People several miles inland of Frances have told me they will evacuate next time. If the condo doesn't have hurricane shutters, it was probably built pre-Andrew. Many of those on the beach were completely destroyed by Frances. Frances was a pussycat compared to what Ivan could be.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 11:24 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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Based on Ivan: NHC Advisory 28
Full size street level image and more available at http://www.skeetobite.com
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 11:32 AM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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as we say in the caribbean RASS!!!!!!!! that track shift way right over night!!! pray pray pray...
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:16 PM |
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Re: NHC Forecast Error....
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The error out right now is minimal.. problem is it is basically the width of florida.
Thinking now it might come in at a nne angle but too close to call
Spent a lot of time wondering this morning on the 1835 Hurricane that cut through Bear Cut by Virginia Key and tore up the Keys on her way North.
Put some links on my blog. Wish there was an accurately drawn map for that one.. as nice as skeetobite's maps.
Watching and waiting to see where he crosses Jamaica and hoping somehow.. he misses.
Sometimes a miss is as good as a mile.. in this case 50 would help.
Which model is doing the best today.. I'm wondering.
Bobbi
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:24 PM |
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Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
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Hi Lake Toho-Kiss,
I am in Kissimmee too. Do you mind if I ask who your insurance is with? I'm just curious as mine(state farm) havent been here YET from Charley. They were supposed to finally come last thurs but they cancelled due to the evacs, etc with Frances. I had heard the things about the double deductible so I was kinda sorta relieved, but I am still so scared as to what they will say when they finally DO get here. We lost alot of shingles right down to the wood so my brother in law put tarps up right after Charley, but that kept ripping and blowing down during those fierce daily storms in the days following.(AHHHH here comes one now as I type!) It was leaking so badly that in some places it was coming down in a constant stream and the ceilings were getting cracks. Since the garage ceiling already caved in the day after Charley hit we were scared the rooms with leaks would be next so I caved in and got a roofer out here to put up Tar paper that cost $750! I asked a few neighbors what they paid and all said $1000 so that figure didnt blow my mind although my husband was really po'ed at me.(he's in the AF up in FWB) Of course some of that came off during Frances ands its leaking badly in some spots again and I am waiting for the roofers to come back out. Not sure how much they'll charge this time, but I am just so worn out from all this I dont care! Do you know anyone who has had results with their insurance company? I am just so afraid they wont cover all the damage or say it isnt as bad as it is.