MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 08:43 PM |
Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen
8PM Update
Hurricane Winds are up to 150MPH at 8PM, pressure is 926mb. Jamaica is in its sights. Many have not evacuated there (From radio reports) so the chance of loss of life is high. It's getting too late to do so now as winds are starting to pick up there. Good luck Jamaica!
Jamaica News
CocoLaPalm, Negril, Jamaica Webcam
7PM Update
Recond has found a pressure reading of 927 MB, down from the 937 at the 5PM advisory, which indicates Ivan is gaining strength.
Original Update
Hurricane Ivan remains a category 4 system as it approaches Jamaica, the current forecast keeps it a Category 4 as it nears the coast. The eye of Ivan looked ragged earlier today, but now it has shown itself again so it may strengthen again. The wind speed, however, is down slightly to 140MPH. Ivan has slowed a little so it may be overnight before Jamaica sees the worst of it. And the forecast track has Ivan going in along the western edge of Jamaica, leaving the northeast side (usually the worst side of the storm) to go across most of Jamaica.
To those in Jamaica, again prayers and best of luck go to you. This will be the strongest storm you have dealt with directly in many years.
After Jamaica, Hurricane Ivan is still expected to cross into Cuba and near the west coast of Florida. Unfortunately, even at 5PM, the future track beyond 5PM is uncertain. The official track is the same as earlier, and the National Hurricane Center mentions a possibility that they may shift their track west a bit tonight, which would mean more for the panhandle and for the other northern Gulf coast states.
Again this graphic is prone to large error.
More will come later.
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Event RelatedLinks
Jamaican Radar (long and short range)
Jamaican Weather Service
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info
Disaster Relief Information
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 08:47 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Thanks for the new thread, Mike. You must be breaking your back to keep this site up and running. I had one time I got knocked off but that was it.
Pray for Jamaica.
| Cane Watcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 08:48 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Stupid question, how do you get the discussions, maps, etc... a half hour before its on the website? I see the weatherunderground stuff, but I don't like there maps..
Thanks,
| alley |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Try this one. You can enlarge all of the images and it's about as quick with reports as Weather Underground.
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp
| Cane Watcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 08:53 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Thanks, for the great link. Just curiousl if there was a email service from the NHC or not.
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 08:54 PM |
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THANK YOU ALL
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Thank you MikeC and everyone here who makes this site and these discussions possible.
It certainly beats watching the Weather Channel and scrolling snippets of news; it helps take the edge off the uncertainty.
So Thank you again!
And that also applies to all the great meteorologists who graciously donate their time and thoughts to the discussion!
Susie
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 08:55 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Thanks Mike, all the work you do is greatly appreciated!
Looking at this 24 image loop, i'm thinking that Ivan is getting it's act together before hitting Jamaica, despite the NHC latests wind decrease.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 08:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Can some one tell me why hurricanes do not produce hail?
I know a dumb question but I have always wondered...
| Mozart |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 08:59 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Yes, the NHC does offer to e-mail their advisories. However, my experience has been that they actually get to you much later, usually an hour or two after they are posted.
NHC E-Mails
By the way, here's a picture not many of you have seen that I think is pretty cool.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:00 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Ahhh.. is it just me or does the ivan6.jpg in your post look like a pixelated jumble of pinks and reds and lavender????
Yes, I have alot of trouble telling some colors apart but this doesn't look anything like previous pics..
TY
'shana
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:01 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Is that a due north in the last few frames?
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:02 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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The storm is a totally warm core system, unlike a cold frontal passage. You don't get the dry air punches, or the lower freezing levels seen in many hail storms.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:03 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Quote:
Is that a due north in the last few frames?
err...NNW
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:03 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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I'm glad someone else is seeing that, because I thought it was all the Scotch I'm inhaling!
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:03 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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The last few frames move it n a bit, but that may be a wobble.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:04 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Looking at the WV loops it seems that the ridges have been stationary for the past few hours. As of right now I see Ivan tracking over or just to the south of Jamaica. It continues its WNW motion, eventually moving more NW'erly. I see it passing over or just west of the Isla de la Juventud and heading north along about 83.4W. Once it hits about 30N it starts moving more to the NE. Again this is with the current synoptic features in place, obviously things can, and probably will change before early next week. Shawn in reference to reading the WV loops and ridges/movement, etc. One reason it may look a certain way is because the WV loop map isn't a flat picture like a tracking map. It's more a snapshot of the globe, so looking at features on that and trying to relate them to what they would look like on a tracking map gets tricky sometimes. I don't know if that helps or not.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:05 PM |
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E-mail advisories...
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I use the WX-ATLAN mailing list from UIUC...
WX-ATLAN
You can get not only advisories, but recon, offshore forecasts, discos...lots of tropical stuff. Pretty much the fastest e-mail service I have found for tropical advisories...and I've tried them all.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:05 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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It does look like the last couple of frames have taken a rightward jog, but too early to tell if it is a turn. Overlaying the sat pic with the forecast position, it is ever so slightly NE of forecast position, but very close.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:06 PM |
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Hail?
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>>> Can some one tell me why hurricanes do not produce hail?
I do believe in some cases hail does come from hurricanes...but hurricanes can spawn tornadoes, which most certainly do produce hail.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:07 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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I love this loop: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.html
It's a wobble to the North, for sure. If it holds, it will miss Jamaica to the North!? I've been hoping it would run over that 7500 foot high
mountain... Maybe it will after all.
Notice that Ivan is getting it's act back together again. Not much dry air training into the core like eariler. Bummer for Jamaica.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:08 PM |
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Re: Hail?
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I could be wrong, but I don't remember hail being associated with the tornadoes directly associated with the landfalling hurricanes. Maybe a met could chime in.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:10 PM |
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Re: Hail?
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I got this snipped from the Internet...so it must be true
:If a hurricane threatens, evacuate if told to do so, they produce flooding, lightning, tornadoes, hail, severe storms and high winds.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:11 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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I'm thinking big storms don't make real turns that fast.... It has to be a jog....
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:13 PM |
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Re: Hail?
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Wow, I feel so much better!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:13 PM |
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Re: Hail?
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Not exactly Phil...
Tornadoes are formed from thunderstorms which ALSO form hail., but tornadoes don't form hail...one doesn't cause the other, but are results of the same parent...
Tropical cyclones are, by defination, warm core, which means that the center of the storm in the mid-levels is warmer than the surrounding atmosphere. Hail forms from strong updrafts that carry liquid water above the freezing level. In a tropical cyclone, the updrafts are very different, and the liquid water rarely makes it to the freezing level because it is so much higher than in a regular thunderstorm.
Make sense?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:14 PM |
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Ivan
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I posted on the last thread before I was aware of this new one but in it I said that looking at the WV loops and thought there might be a chance that Ivan could go more on a northerly track and miss Florida to the east. I still think the upper low to the ne of him is having some sort of effect. I may have said something else in that post but I don't recall everything I said. It is on the old thread,though.
ShawnS
Shawn
Here's your post from the previous forum:
Again, I'm not that good at looking at the wv and telling what will effect these storms so bear with me but it looks like to me that Ivan may want to go on a more northerly track much sooner than expected and miss Florida altogether. Please correct me if I'm way off here, but please be nice...LOL!
ShawnS
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:16 PM |
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Re: Hail?
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But hurricanes can, in certain rare instances, form hail, correct?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:17 PM |
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ivan/little else
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ivan should be making an impact on the gulf coast.. probably on tuesday. i've been hanging on a west florida hit below apalachicola.. going to narrow my window from st marks down to naples now. late tomorrow i'll be ready to draw an X.
with almost utter certainty that florida takes a hit on the gulf side, intensity is the big question remaining. latest IR shows a reorganizing inner core.. wouldn't be surprised if the storm goes back to borderline 5 as it impacts jamaica later. the official track has it grazing the southwest side of jamaica.. i'm expecting it to go onshore, with the capital seeing eyewall effects. right of the caymans as a 4, and a cuba crossing south of the florida keys..also as a 4, with the storm having turned nnw at that point. final impact on west florida should be a cat 2 or 3. the higher up the coast it hits, the weaker. kinda duh, since this is more or less the official, but i'm thinking the official is on the ball for now.
one thing not previously mentioned that troubles me greatly.. creeks and rivers are running high in much of florida, the southeast coastal plain, piedmont, and southern appalachians. with ivan progged to move over the same area, decelerating and bending back to the left as ridging rebuilds.. tremendous flooding potential exists in frances wake. the west coast of florida looks to take a hammer blow, but that likely won't be the end of the story.
elsewhere nothing exciting in the basin. weak low on a wave nearing the islands (14/58 or so).. some convection, but it's awfully close behind ivan. low prob of development. wave midway between africa and the islands low-amplitude and indistinct. wave that left the coast yesterday with some amplitude and gyration near the cape verde islands.. not very perky at this point.
td 10 remnants south of the azores drifting SE.. ssts low and shear not good at this point, but it still has a comma-shaped convective signature sheared east.. and the upper environment should revert to ridging in a day or two.. don't expect anything though.
the complex upper trough/low arrangement in the central atlantic may beget a surface system, but too confused at this point to make any reasonable guesses. it has entrained lots of tropical energy, and plenty of low level convergence there.. just hasn't evolved to where it can spawn anything.
td 13e in the eastpac has another development counter going in the atlantic. may see another storm or two next week. peak of the season now.
HF 2115z10september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:17 PM |
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By the way...
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it must have been a jog because it has already jumped back to the west some,again.
ShawnS
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:18 PM |
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Kingston Call
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Just spoke to Kingston, they lost power about an hour ago.. Winds are very strong, heavy rain and getting worse..
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:18 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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It's highly improbable that it will miss Jamaica to the east. Looking at multiple loops, this northly bounce comes right after a fairly lengthly westerly jog. Hurricanes just do that. Go figure, huh?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:20 PM |
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Maps
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Full size images available at Skeetobite.com
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:22 PM |
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Re: ivan/little else
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Gonna stick with my crow munching forecast...
In at Naples, Tuesday afternoon, CAT III...out at the Cape, Wednesday afternoon, CAT I. Onward to Hattaras...weak CAT II Thursday evening.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:22 PM |
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Re: Hail?
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Yes, but it is exceedingly rare, and almost exclusively happens after the hurricane makes landfall, or is generally aloft and never makes it down to the surface...I have never heard of hurricanes producing hail at the surface in the tropics or Florida (doesn't mean it hasn't happened, but I haven't heard of it).
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:23 PM |
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Re: Ivan
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Shawn, that wasn't me......
I am not hard to recognize, i am the one with the pointy ears!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:24 PM |
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Re: Hail? & ? for Jason
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I believe the other night when they found the 160-165mph there were reports of hail and lightning.
FWIW, the mets here are saying what's keeping the westward track IS the FSU ensemble track, which he said started last night. One said if the trend is still to the west tonight, we'll probably see them shift the track more westward at 11.
Which really isn't all that surprising, given the fact that they have been stressing THE CONE for days now.
Anyone in the Orland/Tampa Area that can get Channel 9 (Channel 20 in Polk County/Lakeland Area) this might interest you: Tom Terry is going to go over ALL the models so we can (hopefully) get a better idea as to why they're thinking what they're thinking.
Jason, does the FSU ensemble normally do a better job than all the other models? Is that why they rely on it so heavily?
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:27 PM |
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Re: Hail? & ? for Jason
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Colleen - where did you hear that - was it with Ivan over Grenada?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:30 PM |
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Re: Hail? & ? for Jason
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I heard it from Warren Madden on TWC the other night when they updated the winds to 160mph. The plane reported hail and lightning. I think that was Wednesday night around 1:45am.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:32 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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Actually they often do produce hail. However this is usually limited to the freezing level (about 10,000 feet) in the stronger convection and melts before it reaches the ground. Hurricane convection generally lacks the vertical instability to produce the really strong up/downdrafts conducive to large hail-most of the energy is horizontally stratified in the system's high winds. The recons have reported hail at flight level in several hurricanes this season. It seems to become more common as the systems move north and interact with continental air masses in their outer feeder bands.
Speaking of convection, I noted that the leading feeder band on the west side of Frances, as it moved offshore south of Tampa, suddenly started producing HUGE amounts of lightning over the Gulf, as opposed to few strikes over land. Interesting.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:34 PM |
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Re: Hail? & ? for Jason
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Allrighty then, thanks. I thought there were ground reports somewhere. Jason, or anybody who knows - is hail uncommon to the aircraft hunters or is it just a rare sea-level hurricane phenom?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:36 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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It looks like the ridge may still be building to the west a bit more. Not much, but a little, I think. If that is the case than I guess my theory on the more northerly track sooner would be out the window. I thought I would be getting better at this by now.
ShawnS
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:39 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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yes it has gone more nnw this could increase the threat to fla,
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:40 PM |
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Re: Hail? & ? for Jason
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Quote:
Jason, does the FSU ensemble normally do a better job than all the other models? Is that why they rely on it so heavily?
The FSU SENS is still a work in progress, but it has had some SCARY successes both in operational use and in post-analysis of past storms. From my understanding (and Clark is much more qualified to answer this than me) once the SENS latches onto a track (which it has done with Ivan for a while now) it does a very good job, without the run to run variations that sometimes plague other models (or at least not the same magnitude). It's not perfect, and had had it's share of out to lunch moments, but it has some really good track record.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:45 PM |
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Re: Hail? & ? for Jason
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Thanks, Jason. I've got to take my son to football practice, so I'll see ya'll later. I need a break from this stuff.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:46 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica
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21:15 took another wobble to the west... I don't think the overall motion with the system right now is NNW ... motion right now somewhere between wnw and nw would be my best guess...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:48 PM |
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Models Changes
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Colleen,
I think you can rest assured the TPC folks are doing their best. Inundated with information, they're probably not ready to make a quick switch on track forecast...probably a course of least regret.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:53 PM |
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Re: Hail? & ? for Jason
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I could have sworn I read about hail in Ivan on an advisory ... 27a? But when I go back and look that info isn't there. Or in any of the other advisories and discussions I checked. Weird. It is there somewhere..
'shana
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:55 PM |
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Re: Hail? & ? for Jason
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There were 2 vortex reports from Frances that had small hail in the SE eyewall...could that have been it?
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 09:57 PM |
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Re: Hail? & ? for Jason
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Right, that makes sense - I've seen that too.
Nice one
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:07 PM |
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Re: Hail? & ? for Jason
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latest satt. it is moving more to the nnw
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:13 PM |
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Re: ivan/little else
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FYI, Steve Jerve on WFLA-8 (NBC) here in Tampa just said their VIPIR forecast is tracking a little to the east of where the NHC puts it. Also, Hillsborough County just gave a press conference saying they plan to issue mandatory evacuation orders for Levels 1, 2 & 3 on Monday.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:15 PM |
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Re: ivan/little else
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the track is shifting more to the east.
| sullynole |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:22 PM |
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Re: ivan/little else
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i believe it was a meteorologist at channel 8 that also swore on his job that charley was going to make a direct landfall in tampa.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:22 PM |
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Meto
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I thought I saw it moving more towards the w to wnw again.
ShawnS
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:25 PM |
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Re: ivan/little else
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That's odd. Channel 8 was the one running all the commercials saying that their model forecasted a Port Charlotte landfall for Charley 3 days out.
No one knows where it's going to end up at this point, I was just putting another point of view out there.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:26 PM |
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back on track
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http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.html
Eye is more defined and back to NNW track over SW Jamaica.
Good look at Atlantic Ridge holding it's own against outflow from Ivan as well.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:27 PM |
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Re: Meto
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Quote:
I thought I saw it moving more towards the w to wnw again.
Not the storm at the moment, the forecast track to Cuba and up.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:41 PM |
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Re: ivan/little else
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The track is shifting west isn't it ?
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:45 PM |
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Re: ivan/little else
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i think the track later tonite will shift more to the right (east)the ridge has stopped moving west.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:46 PM |
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Re: ivan/little else
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Accuweather.com has a good color water vapor map. The ridge has stopped moving, it hasn't budged for the last hour or so.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:48 PM |
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Forecast tracks/Model Tracks...
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The Official NHC forecast at 5 shifted slightly to the left....but not as far left as the models have shifted today.
The more accurate modelling has indeed shifted to the west today....the most significant being the ECMWF, which has bird-dogged Ivan thru the Keys and up the EAST coast for the last several days...it has now settled in with a Big-Bend landfall...the rest of the more reliable track modelling has shifted to the west as well in the 12 and 18z runs.
| ThirdRay |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:49 PM |
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Re: ivan/little else
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What's funny about Channel 8 and there Viper commericials is that they only bothered to brag about having had the correct path of Charlie AFTER it had turned. Also it was that Channel that had told Tampa for 3 days to evacuate to PORT CHARLETE and Orlando !!!!
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:51 PM |
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Re: ivan/little else
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I know, I was a little frustrated with that. However...I'm trying to pay attention to what people other than the NHC are saying since you never know who will be accurate this time. I just hate to put all my eggs in one basket and assume that TWC or NHC are the only ones that are ever correct.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:52 PM |
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pressure drop
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929
URNT12 KNHC 102222
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2222Z
B. 17 DEG 05 MIN N
76 DEG 16 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2456 M
D. 115 KT
E. 055 DEG 017 NM
F. 142 DEG 122 KT
G. 058 DEG 013 NM
H. 927 MB
I. 9 C/ 3060 M
J. 19 C/ 3046 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/07
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 2218Z.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:53 PM |
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Re: pressure drop
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Just saw that as well - down to 927 MB
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:53 PM |
|
Re: pressure drop
|
That looks like 13 mbs in the last few hours, and if I am not mistaken, the eye temp has risen a little also.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:54 PM |
|
Re: ivan/little else
|
TWC just said they got an update and the pressure is now down to 927 from 933. That's not good.
Another problem with storms coming from this angle is that you just don't know until hours before landfall where it will be. It's such an odd angle, even 3 days out the cone is just huge.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:59 PM |
|
Re: ivan/little else
|
In a related development, it looks like the circulation has completely overcome the dry air intrusion I saw earlier, which is probably why the pressure has fallen. The western eye wall is still thinner than the rest, but overall presentation has shown better organization. I really hope this doesn't hit Jamaica full force.
I did catch an interview earlier with a Jamaican official who said many homes were built of brick top to bottom, so he thought they were stronger than of those in Grenada.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 10:59 PM |
|
Re: ivan/little else
|
Does anyone have any idea why Accuweather's forecast is so different from the others? They still have landfall at Tampa.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 11:11 PM |
|
Just an FYI
|
Our Morning News Anchor, Jeremy Pate, and Ashley Brand, Weekend Meteorologist at WTVY in Dothan, AL (our sister station) are flying with the hurricane hunters out of Biloxi tomorrow night...I will try to give updates or post pictures as I get them.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 11:11 PM |
|
Re: ivan/little else
|
Not only has the ridge stopped moving, it looks like it might be eroding away already. But I don't know if that will change the track any, that has been predicted all along about this point.
Bill
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 11:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Just an FYI
|
Very nice - I'd love to see some pictures from Ivan.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 11:44 PM |
|
|
|
Re: ivan/little else
|
Glad to see the site back up - thanks for all your efforts, Mike.
Looks to me like Ivan is putting on it's game face for Jahmaica. Many satellite images show it getting very symmetrical.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 11:49 PM |
|
|
Site Problems/WV Loops
|
Mike, thanks again for getting this site back on line...I was down for about 30 min.
Losing visibles, but check out this water vapor loop.
Looks like Ivan's heading straight for Kingston...
Also, various sources are reporting many Jamaican's not obeying mandatory evac orders...one can only assume they'd rather face Ivan than looters. That's such a shame. Mandatory curfew's have been ordered, meaning that if you're on the streets, they WILL arrest you.
Pray for Jamaica...
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 11:49 PM |
|
|
Re: ivan/little else
|
I know that it is still to early to tell what or where Florida's fate will be. I have a hard time with the track off the coast to the panhandle. Don't know too much, but that spaghetti model tells a different story. If the projection is off the coast, all the way up, it will keep everyone's attention and people will be prepared, but not cause panic. Just a silly thought in my mind, as people were really acting like fools in my town today. Most importantly my thoughts are with Jamaica now.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 11:55 PM |
|
|
|
Stronger Ivan
|
Ivan's up to 150 mph
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html
"..and it is possible that Ivan could regain category 5
status as it passes Jamaica."
| sullynole |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 11:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: ivan/little else
|
wasn't it about three days before that NHC had the track into the Ft. Myers area or was it earlier than that? it would make sense that they were advertising that landfall then?
I am not saying that particular station is not a good source, I am just saying don't put all your weight in that for shifting the official track. models shift, thats what they do. Truthfiully, the general public should not be watching any models... many people tend to focus on the track of one of the models and get hyped up about nothing. Only meteorologists (or very experienced trackers who could be considered meteorologists in that sense) can really weigh the models while looking at what is going on in the atmosphere.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 10 2004 11:57 PM |
|
Re: ivan/little else
|
WOW, This isnt looking good for Jamaica. If pressure continues to drop in the next 2 or 3 hours before landfall I'd expect a borderline Cat4/Cat5 at landfall. Winds are probably increasing as we speak. By tomorrow I think Ivan could bomb like Gilbert, maybe not on that level but back to a 5 nonetheless.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: ivan/little else
|
Unfortunately, I gotta agree with drooper...Ivan is definitely strengthening just in time to whallop poor Jamiaca...We need another ERC and SOON! Otherwise, I'm guessing he's probably at CAT V status or damn close right now...
God...can you imagine those poor bastids who ignored evac orders...with no power...sitting in their ramshackle homes with a shotgun in hand (to fend off the inevitable looters) and not knowing what they are about to face?
I don't even want to think about the number of fatalities right now...but I can only surmise it will be in the hundreds, if not thousands...
Pray for Jamaica.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:05 AM |
|
Re: ivan/little else
|
They were forecasting Ft. Myers early, then Tampa. Actually, they were still forecasting Tampa when Charley made the abrupt turn into Port Charlotte.
I don't listen to just one model, I actually channel hop/surf the net to see what everyone is saying. What I'm trying to figure out is why the majority of the models say one thing, and the official track is something else. It seems that they take the eastern outlier and the western outlier and plunk the official right in the middle. That's even when I've looked at the models and at times not one of them agree with the official. Seems strange.
Incidentally, I'm not completely ignorant in this area, I have a science background and teach high school science (including earth science). Don't get me wrong, I'm not anywhere close to a met, but I do have a basic education in this area.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:07 AM |
|
|
Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
I'm certainly not a meteorologist but I know a fair bit about psychology. I've been wondering to myself if the Westward shift of the track had more to do with psychology than meteorology.
The NHC was blasted by some of the public for "Not Warning Us!" While the accusation was completely unfair, they had certainly stated time and again that there was an error of margin, stay on your toes, the storm could go anywhere in this range.
Nevertheless, the little dart showing the eye stayed right on Anna Maria Island for a very long time and people North and South watched the dart and became complacent.
I would not be surprised to see this track kept just off the coast until shortly before landfall. It keeps everyone on their toes instead of just a few of us.
I'm not saying it will or it won't hit in Tampa, I don't think anyone can say that until about an hour before it lands. But by keeping the dart from getting stuck in one point, the NHC keeps all the Gulf Coast and Panhandle on their toes. As it should!
Just my thoughts...
-Bev
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:10 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
That's exactly what I'm thinking. Would be nice if it took a long ride and the Gulf and then fizzled out, though.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:12 AM |
|
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
They are arguing among themselves on the fcst tracks. Read this from the 4pm discussion.
...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AFTER THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE TO THE NEW GUIDANCE...IT IS NOT PRUDENT TO MAKE A CHANGE AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
edited to avoid confusion-danny
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:14 AM |
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
I would agree that there is a good possiblity that keeping the track a little to the right was to keep people on their toes. But there are probably other reasons as well. One is that the models are still flucuating back and forth to some degree, and they don't all agree. There is also the fact that the FSU SENS and the GFDL did very well with Charley and Frances. The GFDL we can see, the FSU model we can't. There are other models that are not publicly available either. So don't discount that they have sources of information we do not. But I've been saying it now for several days, I really think they are not sure where it is going to go and are not going to commit to any extreme, they can't.
Bill
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:19 AM |
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
It is my opinion that there is no need to alter a track to get attention, especially since everyone in Florida is watching and preparing anyway. The NHC in my opinion is above that, and their only concern is getting right as best as they can. The ramifications for anything other than that are too great.
Don't forget, there are models that are further east-the GFS has been persistantly east. On the sat pics I watch, I overlay the forecast position, and the actual track has been ever so slightly NE of forecast anyway.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
Mr. Spock,
Kirk here. Agreed...don't think the NHC has any ulterior motives...why would they?
All in all your post was very logical, as one would expect from a half vulcan/half human.
Give my regards to Sarek.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:27 AM |
|
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
Not sure about saying the GFDL did very well. It spent a lot of time aiming Frances at South Carolina. However, I think it is more of an issue of trying to keep Tampa awake. Granted, everything is still in the area. Only thing that concerns me is that everyone here has a hypersenitivity to the track right now. I heard folks who live in Lakeland saying that they are glad it is going to miss them this afternoon after the track moved west. Truthfully, I think a little track uncertainty is better to keep people in tune.
However, going into the weekend, I also see the point of trying to keep Tampa from thinking they are safe and then getting caught off guard.
With all that said, I have no idea exactly what they are using to decide. There is a little sensitivity in Central Florida after the way Charley caught everyone off guard with his power. Plus, I see friction with the local stations and NHC in public. WFTV's Tom Terry already came on before the FSU vs Miami game and more or less said he disagrees with NHC's track. So, that will fuel the fires a bit around here.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:28 AM |
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
Thank you, will do, and I have calculated that there is a 98.763584956043% chance it is legit.
Live Long and Prosper
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:30 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
Well, I just got a days worth of free accuweather info on foxnews. JB was on there giving a little demo on the hurricane and his graphics, though no specifics; whatdaya expect anyways?
I don't know about you, but i was always more a Picard man than a Kirk guy...
Sorry Phil, couldn't resist. I guess I just ran out of gas (rim shot).
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:32 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
OK...it's my fault for bringing the whole thing up...but we need to stay on topic...no more Trek stuff...again it's my own damn fault but let's keep it on Ivan, not Picard now.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:32 AM |
|
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
II'm watchin for a bit of a Northward jog which will move the track more East. Just a hunch on my part.
Poor Jamaica. Reports of looting and damage already coming in.
Live long and prosper........(how do you do that thing with your fingers?).......huh...!!
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:36 AM |
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
I have been trying to set up a duel between Picard and Kirk for a while. The hangup is they can't agree on the holodeck to be used.
Granted, the GFS has been woefully too far east for too long, but it has been persistent. Part of me is wary of trying to nail something down while this is going on. The GFS has performed well at times, and in fact, has been too far WEST other times. I do agree with Joe B. on one thing in particular: The Carolinas are in for another heavy rain event, and the GFS has been persistent in trapping it to some degree, or at least slowing it down.
(edited part) The GFS's performance I am referring to is definitely not the recent set of storms, but over the last couple of years. I think most forecasters take RECENT biases in effect, until they are no longer valid
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:37 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
Back to subject, Ivan is prepin' it's A game for Jamaica, satellites show it very organized. - Check the forecast points, and you'll see it's moving a little right of the forecast track.
| RBL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:38 AM |
|
Last GFS 18 UTC
|
Good nigth every body, look the last GFS es more EAST.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_fpc.shtml
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:41 AM |
|
Question
|
Is there an itty bitty high pressure or vortex just to the nw of Ivan or does it just appear that way on the WV because of the way the clouds are moving?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
ShawnS
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: And now back to Ivan
|
Sorry I had to!
Latest GHCC loop seems to indicate a "left turn Ivan". Looks to be a near 90 degree turn toward the west from 2245 to 0015Z. Good and bad for Jamaica. They Do know how to deal with lawbreakers in Jamaica, and it's Not pretty!
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:43 AM |
|
|
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Re: Last GFS 18 UTC
|
Using the latest GFS info, Phil's crow-eating prediction is on target, though, it's just one model at one point in time against the FSU and NHC. I'm trying Phil, but we'll see. I'm with JB where it probably comes in around Tampa and most likely out the Jacksonville area and bad news later for the Carolinas.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:43 AM |
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
Quote:
II'm watchin for a bit of a Northward jog which will move the track more East. Just a hunch on my part.
Poor Jamaica.
Tom Terry started to go down this path (East track) during the 6pm newscast, then decided not to disagree with the NHC quite so blatantly. He stopped short and then just said, "I'll keep watching it closely."
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:44 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Question
|
is 926mb still the latest recon ?
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:45 AM |
|
Re: Question
|
I am not sure if I see what you do, but wow, did that CDO and eyewall come back or what? I hadn't seen a photo in an hour or 2, and it certainly got its western flank back.
In the interest of not being a post hog, I'll edit this to respond to the above post. The map that shows the model's forecast tracks is showing 2 of 5 going back out over the Atlantic, 1 being close, and 2 near Tampa. If I were to build the consensus, I would say 5 of 6 are from Tampa eastward. Granted, there are other models, but I am sure this is the uncertainty the NHC is looking at as well.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:46 AM |
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
You guys know whats impressive? Look at how the convection was elongated about 4 or 5 hours ago and look now. Its almost perfectly symmetrical. I can only imagine how bad it will be in Jamaica tonight. Think about it...near Cat 5 roaring through at night and riding out the storm in a hotel on the beach or anywhere for that matter. Its gonna be one hell of a nightmare. As bad as this may end up, Im hoping some video comes out of there so we can see just how strong a storm of this strength is. Im not trying to sound like I dont care about the folks their...But come one, this is once in a very long time kind of stuff were witnessing. I pray for all Jamaican's riding this storm out tonight though. Keep safe. PS Anyone have any obs or radar images from Jamaica? I had a few obs but I think they've already lost power. Any help is greatly appreciated.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:49 AM |
|
Hang on Jamaica
|
Ivan's ramping up for sure now. Solid eye and very semetrical. SW coast is going to get it.
I don't see any weakening of the ridge yet. I might even hazard an extension of the ridge developing between Cuba and Jamaica. May not be there in the morning. I can't imagine the effect on Ivan's track, but it might slow it down and limit growth if still there when Ivan comes through.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:50 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology
|
There's the weather service of Jamaica
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/
Looks as though the radar has stoped working though...
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Question
|
HCW, yes 926mb was the last recon pressure. They are currently recovering back to their base. Next recon scheduled to depart at 0200Z, about an hour from now.
If Ivan has made a westward jog, as it appears, the mountains of Jamaica will not have near the effect on bringing him down. Yes, I noticed the symmetry has improved quite a bit in the last few hours.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:55 AM |
|
|
|
devastation
|
This is looking very bad for Jamaica. My thoughts and prayers are with them. I don't think there is any other to describe it except that they are in for a truely hellish night.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:59 AM |
|
|
|
Didn't see this till now...
|
>>> Using the latest GFS info, Phil's crow-eating prediction is on target, though, it's just one model at one point in time against the FSU and NHC. I'm trying Phil, but we'll see.
I hope I'm wrong...I really do, although that still means a whole world of hurt on someone else...
I've been wrong with every storm this season, so what's one more. One thing though...when I make a call, I stick with it till the dire end...I don't change my forecast over time to suit things and then claim I scored a coup...
the names are being withheld to protect the guilty...end of season I will remember...
Unfortunately...unless this were to pull a hard right (ain't happening) to turn out to sea, someone in the CONUS will be getting whomped.
If it's Naples...to the Cape...to Hattaras...well, then, gee, I could say I was right. Does that make it any better?
Let's just hope something with the hills of Jamiaca and then the Mountains of COOBA can knock this down to at least a two. That would be more of a "victory" than nailing the landfall point.
Pray for Jamaica and everyone else be safe...'k?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:01 AM |
|
|
Re: Didn't see this till now...
|
Jamica is in for a beating, the Prime minster is telling everyone to pray also. Just some thoughts.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:04 AM |
|
|
|
Re: devastation
|
Here's a link to an update from Jamaica at 2255Z. Just scanning the first few lines, it looks really bad for them.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml
Looks like Aruba has some major flooding going on. One pic has a man wading in chest deep water.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:09 AM |
|
Re: Didn't see this till now...
|
I see a verrryy slight wobble to the South. I don't think it will hold, but if it did it might keep the eyewall off of the coast. I'm hoping it doesn't throw back to the NW and smack hard into landfall.
Holy cow, those poor people. Why do these things always come at night!?
It looks like Kingston will be spared a direct hit.
Anyone got an idea on current wind speeds?
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:16 AM |
|
|
JB
|
Accuweather track has not changed and still shows a West Central Florida landfall. I know Joe Bastardi had changed his forecast, and was now forecasting a West coast landfall. Does anyone know if he has changed his thinking this evening.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Didn't see this till now...
|
Last recon has 118kt in the SW quadrant at 1834Z.
That equals 135.88mph at flight level (7990ft), and should be near 122.3mph at the surface. The higher elevations would probably be closer to the 135mph wind speed.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:18 AM |
|
|
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Re: JB
|
No, as I posted eariler, he had an interview on Fox News and he's sticking with his west central Florida prediction.
As a note to what you said on the recon, the SW portion of the hurricane isn't usually the strongest part and probably wouldn't correspond to higher wind speeds present in the upper right section. Though, if you're anywhere in Jamaica, you will go through on helluva rough time.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:25 AM |
|
Re: Didn't see this till now...
|
1834 was this afternoon
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:29 AM |
|
Re: Punta Gorda evacuations
|
I apologize if this was already mentioned. Punta Gorda and western Charlotte County are under mandatory evacuations starting Saturday. I'm not sure where to find a link to the actual order.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:30 AM |
|
Re: devastation
|
The last hour of IR pixs were almost due west.. or just north of due west (time of 23:45 to 00:45).... I sure hope it stays on this track for a couple more hours or so... I doubt it..... next couple of NW wobbles, if they occur will put the eye wall on the island..... its bad enough as it is, but could get a whole lot worse in the next couple of hours... stay tuned....
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:31 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Didn't see this till now...
|
The last recon message, from Ivan, was transmitted at 2332Z/ 1932EDT. They used an older max flt lvl wind in the transmission. NHC had upped the windspeed in the 5pm advisory based on some other factor, as the last reported MFLWindspeed is shown below.
URNT12 KNHC 102332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
...P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 118 KT SW QUAD 2034Z
Looking back at the Vortex messages.
...P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 2218Z.
This was transmitted at 2222Z-1822edt.
122kts=140.5mph at flt lvl or 126mph at the surface.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:33 AM |
|
Re: Punta Gorda evacuations
|
Link for Charlotte County evacuations: http://www.charlottecountyfl.com/Emergency/bulletins.asp
| Hurricaned |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:34 AM |
|
Orlando getting hurricane winds?
|
What are the chances of Orlando getting hurricane winds?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:34 AM |
|
Re: Punta Gorda evacuations
|
Thank you!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:41 AM |
|
|
|
Steve Jerve & VIPIR Model
|
I watched the coverage on New Channel 8 last weekend when Frances was coming our way, and VIPIR had it nailed. I'm not saying that Steve Jerve is better than the NHC, but they have a pretty impressive record with the VIPIR model on Charley, Frances...and I hope it's wrong with Ivan.
Dennis Phillips was the one swearing that we wouldn't get hurricane force winds here in Tampa last weekend. We did. However, I remember distinctly with Charley that there was one model that he pointed out (the MM5?) that put it in at Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda and that was right.
We all want to know where it's going and when and we want to know RIGHT NOW. That's just human nature. Floridians are so on edge right now you could cut the tension with a knife. I talked to people tonight at football practice and most people said, "I'm not buying any track until it's an hour before landfall."
However....a brush along the coast will be no party whatsoever. That's why we have to remember that the storm isn't "just a point". When Georges was just about 100 miles offshore from Tampa, the winds and storms were horrendous. That was worse than anything we got (well, that I got) with Charley or Frances. Even if it's offshore by 50 miles, it's gonna be ugly.
I'm not letting my guard down until the track shifts 200 miles left.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:44 AM |
|
Re: devastation
|
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.html
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/gulf_wv_loop.gif
Look at that eye on second link!
Here's uniformed me predicting the eye misses Jamaica.
That SE droop over Al and GA worries me a little for myself.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:47 AM |
|
Re: Punta Gorda evacuations
|
Poor Jamaica....I challenge anyone to look at a IR loop of the last few hours and tell me this isnt a Cat5 now. Of course recon leaves right as Ivan begins to intensify. I bet pressure is near 920mb or so right now. What time does next recon get in there? I saw 5z, is that 1am? Still havent gotten around to learning zulu and all that. Still cant help but feel bad for the folks in the path, to bad they have been ignoring officials today and venturing out. Hoping for the best.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:48 AM |
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Re: Steve Jerve & VIPIR Model
|
You are SO right. I'm sweating an off-shore track because what Frances delt us was no picnic. I'm guessing an off-shore pass would be worse than Frances.
Will I stay? Time will tell.
Gah!!! After 25 years of living here, we have this?!
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:50 AM |
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Re: devastation
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wow! that second link looks so perfect that it almost looks fake
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:52 AM |
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Re: Question
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The cyclonic circulation centered near 30N/ 63W seems to be nudging the ridge toward the west. How much effect will this have on the ridge. I.e., break it down, or build it up?
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:54 AM |
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Re: devastation
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Not so sure it will miss Jamaica...I really hope so..I was just there a few months ago. It has been stair-stepping and if you extrapolate, it will hit the island.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:54 AM |
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Re: Punta Gorda evacuations
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Is it me or does the current WV show the ridge eroding and another ridge pushing down from the Northwest ? Looks like the path for the storm to move northward is starting to open
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:54 AM |
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Re: devastation
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Not so sure it will miss Jamaica...I really hope so..I was just there a few months ago. It has been stair-stepping and if you extrapolate, it will hit the island.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:54 AM |
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Re: Recon
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Recon is ?inbound at this time. Looks like they are coming from Keesler AFB.
URNT11 KNHC 110142
97779 01424 70289 83200 95300 28015 84929 /6971
RMK AF980 1609A IVAN OB 18
To convert Zulu to your time. Subtract 4 hours for EDT, and 5 hours for CDT. This will give you military time. Subtract 12 from the military time and it will give you the correct time of the observation or flight, for your time zone.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:56 AM |
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Re: Question
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>>>> Poor Jamaica....I challenge anyone to look at a IR loop of the last few hours and tell me this isnt a Cat5 now
I think it is...but whether it's a "Strong 4" or a "weak 5" does it really matter? They're going to see a whole world of s---
Pray for Jamaica
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 AM |
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Re: Punta Gorda evacuations
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that would cut off much farther west movement.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:02 AM |
Re: devastation
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You might be right, looks like an egg every couple frames. Anyone have a preference to the modles, with respect to accuray?
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:04 AM |
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Re: Question
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I agree with ya Phil, Strong 4, Weak 5 doesnt matter, people are enduring an ass kickin only mother nature can provide. By the way, is there any such thing as a weak 5? LOL Just prayin for the folks down there.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:04 AM |
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Re: Punta Gorda evacuations
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could be near 160 now......looks has started more north again.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:05 AM |
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Re: Punta Gorda evacuations
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Personally, I can't see much beyond 12 hours (at the outside).
I've seen so many flip-flops with the "It's gonna hit here!!!"-type tracks that I've put myself on a 12 to 18 hour limiter.
So, based on that... http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
The VIS & IR floater still looks to me like a ridge-extension building to the NW of Ivan.
May it Weaken tomorrow. (and miss Jamacia tonight!)
Edit: With the eye... even so it's going to cause mass distruction....
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:07 AM |
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Re: Ivan Update
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HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2004
A FORECAST ADVISORY FOR IVAN WAS RELEASED EARLY IN ERROR. PLEASE DISREGARD THE ADVISORY UNTIL THE FULL 11 PM ADVISORY PACKAGE IS RELEASED.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:09 AM |
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Re: Ivan Update
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Yeah, I read a forecast advisory 35 and thought that was a little odd.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:10 AM |
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Re: Ivan Update
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** WTNT24 KNHC 110148 ***
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0300Z SAT SEP 11 2004
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL CUBA.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE IVAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 76.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 76.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.5W
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.3N 77.9W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.3N 79.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.4N 80.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 81.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 76.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
I take it this is the one in error? Nice detective work.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:10 AM |
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Trough
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I knew I didn't know much about this stuff but I guess I know less than I thought. I was about to ask if it looked like the trough seemed to be shrinking? Then you all come on and say that it may be close to making the move north. I think I'll leave it to y'all from now on.
ShawnS
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:11 AM |
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Looters and other pleasant folk
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If anyone was watching TWC since 10:00...it's what I had feared. The folks who aren't evacing are the same folks who fear their property will be looted IF they decide to evac.... That's just not right, but I guess ther's nothing that can be done about it now....
Hunkering down, in the face of a CAT IV (or possibly a V) because they are more afraid to leave than to lock their doors...jezus...this is only the beginning...wait till it gets up here...Be afraid...be very very afraid.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:15 AM |
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Re: Looters and other pleasant folk
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Phil,
I'm afraid that part of the U.S. is going to get hit hard by a strong hurricane, then another part (mid atlantic?) is going to get flooded due to a slow-moving, decaying tropical system, with tornadoes, which seems to be happening every week anymore. With the high rainfall amounts over the east the last several weeks, it doesn't take nearly as much wind to blow trees over. This is why they say never to focus on just the eye, the storm isn't a point.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:15 AM |
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Re: devastation
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It is not going to "miss" Jamaica, in fact they are already within the hurricane force wind field. They are getting the strong or dirty side of the storm. They are getting pounded now. Ivan seems to be wobbling, but the eye will pass close enough to cause major damage, even if it does not pass right over. Not to mention storm surge.
Bill
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:16 AM |
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Re: Looters and other pleasant folk
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HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE IVAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
815 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF KEYS RESIDENTS IS IN EFFECT. RESIDENTS SHOULD EVACUATE NOW. RESIDENTS...MAKE SURE YOU HAVE YOUR RE-ENTRY PERMIT. THE SHELTER FOR MONROE COUNTY IS LOCATED AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY. TAKE U.S. 1 NORTH TO THE TURNPIKE...THEN EXIT EAST ON SW 8TH STREET. FOLLOW THE SIGNS TO THE SHELTER...WHICH IS NOW OPEN. SHELTERS IN THE KEYS WILL NOT BE OPEN. TOLLS AT CARD SOUND ROAD AND ON THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN LIFTED.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KEYW.shtml
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:17 AM |
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Tom Terry
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Quote:
WFTV's Tom Terry already came on before the FSU vs Miami game and more or less said he disagrees with NHC's track. So, that will fuel the fires a bit around here.
Rasvar...what did Tom Terry say about the track? I watched him all last week with Frances and he's a heck of a good forecaster. At 5:30pm he said something to the effect of "I'm beginning to get a little more confident with this track" but not much more. They also run their own model (don't know if it's VIPIR) and that model was dead on with Frances.
I'm interested in what he had to say. Jerve and Terry aren't in it for the glory, I truly believe that they have the public's best interests at heart.
I can't even imagine what Jamaica must be going through right now. Gosh, I know that no one wants to lose their things, but that's all they are...THINGS...you can replace those, you can't replace your life. The ones I feel sorry for are the little ones whose parents decided not to leave. They must be absolutely terrified. This might not be a politically correct thing to say, but any parent who exposes their chid/children to such a catastrophic storm to save a few "things" (that probably won't be there anyway) need a good smack upside their damned heads.
Who's going to be looting with 150mph winds + the gusts and the rain anyway? That being said, I will continue to pray for those who left and those who stayed behind. Especially the children..
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 AM |
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Re: Tom Terry
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Coleen, I'm a mom of 2 young boys. I'll make a deal with you......I'll hold 'em down while you slap 'em and then we switch. Watcha think?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 AM |
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Re: devastation
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Not sure where you guys are going with this only...
It's not good.
I only wish Ivan was going through it's "pon-far" but that's not likely...
Right now I'm more feeling for the Jamaican's ...because of their political/regional situation...
By next Monday, we'll have plenty of horror stories...
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:23 AM |
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Re: devastation
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I really feel for the Jamaican people...If you have have ever been to the island and outside of the tourist areas, you can see how the people live. The homes are not very well constructed, mostly wood shacks. A friend of mine left the island yesterday ahead of the storm.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:26 AM |
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Re: devastation
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Just spoke to Kingston Jamaica. The person there I spoke to is extremely scared as all the can do is hear everything ripping apart outside of their house, and the howling of the winds.. Just to let you know, this is not missing Jamaica, it is hitting them and hitting them very very hard.. I never heard someone so scared in my life.. I have been through Andrew, Charley, and Frances so I know how scarey this can be.. Worse though is the aftermath of the storm.. You definitely do not need to be in the direct path of the storm to be effected by this.. Remember the cone..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:26 AM |
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Re: devastation
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off topic here but the thread under this one has a post thats pretty foul u might want to delete it if you can. this guys a potty mouth...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:27 AM |
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Re: devastation
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colleen, wkmg Tom Sorrell uses VIPIR. I think Tom Terry used his own amalgamation of all the models with Frances. He did quite well I think
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:27 AM |
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Re: devastation
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I can do that but who's the "potty mouth?" Seems everyone here is on board...
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:28 AM |
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Re: devastation
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I saw that post, too. I just thought they left it up to show how ignorant people with potty mouths are. If you are going to be profane, at least use correct grammer.
| TinaLee |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:29 AM |
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Re: Tom Terry
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And he did an amazing job with the tornadoes that were flying all over the place in the days after Frances as well. I just sat there and watched, waiting for my neighborhood to come up!
His "everybody hunker down" has become legend in Orlando. We're thinking about getting T-shirts that say "I hunkered down with Tom Terry" !
TinaLee
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:30 AM |
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Re: Punta Gorda evacuations
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Quote:
The VIS & IR floater still looks to me like a ridge-extension building to the NW of Ivan.
Ok, I think I'm punch drunk with hurricanitis...what exactly does this mean as far as the track is concerned? More to the west? More the East? A miss? I'm so confused my head's spinning.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:30 AM |
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Re: devastation
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slwfreez
I talk like a truck driver and I was even a bit offended by his comments.
| TinaLee |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:32 AM |
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Re: devastation
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Phil - it's the last post in the
Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit
thread under 2004 News Talkbacks
some Einstein by the name of slwfreez
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 AM |
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Re: devastation
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slwfreez
Unregistered. that one.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 AM |
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Re: devastation
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I have been there, but stayed on the resort, as that was the advice given to me. I did see some parts of the island near Montego Bay, from which you could see the situation that most live in, but I hear that is nothing compared to Kingston. The people at the resort treated us like gold, and I know that some will say it's because they want you back, but would we have treated them as well if the situation was reversed? Every person I walked by, bar none, would smile and greet you with a good morning, or whatever. Each one always asked if they could do anything for you, and the answer was always "No problem". Tourism is their big thing, and although some may go down there after this out of curiosity, I would expect it to hurt their industry. I said on an earlier post that I thought it was real sad that 12 hours of weather could hurt a country for years afterwards. Because of my brief experience there, but a great one, it troubles me to know what they are about to go through. They are tough people, they will survive. But they all remember Gilbert, and I'm afraid they'll remember Ivan the same way-1 storm whose name was retired due to its severity that crossed the island, and another storm that will likely have its name retired that darn near did the same thing. Sorry for rambling, but I really hate to see them go through that-that don't have the economic resources we have, although I am sure their determination is just as great.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 AM |
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Re: Tom Terry
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I have two young boys, too...10 & 8. Your plan sounds fine to me.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:38 AM |
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Re: Tom Terry
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Latest Discussion is out
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html
Down to an Est. 920 MB and up to 155 winds.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:39 AM |
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Ivan core may miss Jamaica
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Last couple of satellite images show a jog to the west. It's going to be close, but the core may wobble enough west to miss Jamaica with it's eye core.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:41 AM |
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Re: Punta Gorda evacuations
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Lol, Colleen!
I have no idea! Well, I can *guess*... As of 10:35 EST...
The trough looks to be hanging stong.... 12 hours from now may tell a much different story, but either the Atlantic ridge will shove Ivan East over the Everglades, or push it West up the Westenr coast of Florida. Total Wishcasting, IMO, but it's all I've got.
We'll see tomorrow, I think. Or after Cuba, anyway. It's going to be another wild ride.
I just can't get a feel for much beyond 12 hours....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:42 AM |
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Re: devastation
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Let me just say that any local meteorolgists on any of the stations I watch in my area..i.e Tom Terry, Tom Sorrells, has more knowledge in their pinky finger than I have all together and I understand that totally. That being said I don't believe any of them should be forecasting anything that undermines what the NHC puts out. My feeling is that the NHC has more expertise and tools at their disposal than any of these guys have. They are excellent forecasters in their own right but they still are not as good as the NHC. To say they don't agree wiith the NHC's forecast just makes an already confusing situation even more confusing..especially with people already being on edge enough. They can't stick their head in the sand but they really need to stick with the NHC regardless of what they might "feel" about the track of a given storm. My prayers are totally with Jamaica right now!
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 AM |
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11:00 Discussion
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Well, I spit my Scotch on my monitor over the "A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT OFTHE TRACK COULD BRING IVAN INLAND ANYWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST OFFLORIDA" part of the discussion.
Gee, thanks.
Meanwhile, Jamaica get's hammered!...
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:49 AM |
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Re: Tom Terry
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Gawrsh, ya'll I just don't know what to think about this storm....
Wherever it hits in the CONUS, it's going to be really bad, and the aftereffects could be even worse further inland.
I know that in North Ga...(Atlanta to the north) can't take much more rain before it's "Treetops keep falling on my roof". I mean on Tuesday my 2 block area of Midtown Atlanta was probably the ONLY part of Midtown and Buckhead NOT to lose power.....
Further north, the mountains of North Carolina as well as the Northern Piedmont of Virginia as well as my former hometown of Roanoke, Va are just cleaning up the major flooding from Frances....
I guess, I'm venting here, but I have a good friend, In Orlando, whose parents lost their house during Charley and she's so spooked that she's bringing them to Atlanta with her this weekend.
I know that this seems minor to everyone else in Florida who's probably going through PTSD with two hurricanes and now Ivan....
Finally, take the time if you live in the south to go to your nearest Publix and donate some money to the American Red Cross or look them up in your local phone book and donate that way.
If you're in Central Florida and you see anyone from BellSouth or Georgia Power, go up and shake their hand and just say thank you, because they are taxed to the limit as well...
Thanks for this bit of time on the soapbox and now back to the news about Rafael Furcal......
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:51 AM |
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Re: 11:00 Discussion
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Looking at the probabilities as much as I can make sense of them put The Keys, Ft. Myers to Venice higher than the rest of Florida. Does that fluctuate or only increase with time?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:53 AM |
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NEW THREAD
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Guys, Mike put up a new thread like an hour ago...
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:57 AM |
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Re: Tom Terry
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Well, I saved up about $1,500+ to pay off bills this month... guess what happened? Frances freaked me out so much I spent all that and more for a generator, a sub-panel to wire up my house to the generator, and gas for the generator, supplies, etc. Egads, I'm in the hole this month! ( a side note: Worth every penny after 60 hours without power!)
Not to mention if I Bug-Out for Ivan! 3 to 5 days for a motel room? AUUGGHH!!!!!
Meanwhile, I'm not working either!!!
Jeez, let Winter come on and stop this!!!
(slightly freaked in Ocala...)
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:02 AM |
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Re: 11:00 Discussion
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The probabilities are one of the must confusing products NHC puts out. I almost wish they did not have it. It is simply a percentage chance with a factor of time that the storm will pass within a certain distance of the point. his advisory was within 65 nautical miles of the particular point. Therfore most places nearby are going to have a higher percentage.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:03 AM |
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Probabilities will go up along the entire Fl coast over time
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Probabilities are the.....
CHANCES OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH A GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME.....
Case in point... if Ivan were to skirt the entire west coast of Florida, and the eye were to be within 65 miles or less off the coast, then every city on west coast within this 65 mile range would basically receive a 99% probability rating at some point in time as the storm tracks off to the north.... you don't have to have a direct hit of the eye to get the 99% probability rating
reading posts off another web page (storm2k) who's members are listening to a Jamaican radio and are describing the radio events on Jamaica right now as they are playing out...... this is going to be an extremely catastrophic event down there... no telling how many people are going to be killed..... a very sad night indeed for Jamaica.....
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:03 AM |
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Re: 11:00 Discussion
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Um...Mike put up a new thread about an hour ago...what more can I say...
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:12 AM |
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Use The New Thread Please
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As LI Phil has noted, a new Main News Page Article has been posted (quite some time ago), so I'm going to lock down this one for awhile - it had drifted significantly off-topic anyway. The current item of interest is Ivan and his impact on Jamaica - and posts about favorite newscasters and current budgets really belong in a different Forum. Please stay on topic.
Thanks,
ED
Ed Dunham
CFHC Forum Administrator