MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 AM |
Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica
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Overnight Ivan deepened at one point, possibly briefly to Camille levels, but then lstarted an eyewall replacement cycle and weakened a bit.
That's not the real news, however, that is although Jamaica still received very heavy rains and wind, and likely lots of problems, the eye of the Hurricane remained to the south of the island. Hurricane Ivan 's currently just southwest of the Island. Which is great news.
Although the storm was forecast to clip the western edge of Jamaica, the overnight "wobble" to the west will keep it from doing so. It's still not clear Jamaica now, so currently their winds are getting high, but Jamaica was spared the extreme worst part of the storm.
This leftward motion has increased the chance for a panhandle strike later on, but the cone of error is still extremely large. It's interesting to note that forecasts have been overdoing the motion to the right. It will be interesting watching the trends as it heads closer to Cuba.
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Event RelatedLinks
Jamaican Radar (long and short range)
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Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
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Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 08:21 AM |
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Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica
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Ivan is really slowing and that's causing a lot of cloud mass to start being expelled. Hard to say, but I'm betting on a continued WNW track for this morning.
Dr. Steve Lyons suggested that this period of WNW movement could be critical in terms of how far Westward the track ends up. Seems the mets are thinking a pretty straight shot North once Ivan gets clear of Cuba.
Nice early morning shot at http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
Click on: GOES-EAST Visable - Storm Relative - Latest Image
Cloud tops look surprisingly flat and even. I would hazard a guess that means Ivan is still pretty strong. Winding down from last night.
| Hurricaned |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 08:26 AM |
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Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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What are the chances of getting hurricane winds in Orlando? Opinions?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 08:31 AM |
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Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica
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Well not to my surprise the GFS now is wayyy left even more with the 06z run then even the 0z run when that was left. This continues then Shawn will have his hurricane in Houston after 3 more runs. LOL. Models are performing horrible with the track except the CMC amazingly enough. This has been the only persistant model and generally the worst of the global models. I will wait to see the 12z runs and more data on the faster then forcasted movement up to upper trough south of Bermuda as this is pushing the ridge in the bahamas more w info florida causing models to react and move this towards the Panhandle and who knows maybe Houston (jokingly) by the time it makes landfall. Right now it looks like right now the se coast of florida might actually not even get any rain and infact be fair with some high clouds instead of the forcasted2-5 inches of rain and TS force winds on Monday and Tuesday.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 08:33 AM |
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Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica
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I need more sleep as my choice of wording is really bad.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 08:35 AM |
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Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica
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Hurr right now if models continue,,, you can go to Wet-N-Wild on monday or tuesday and use the 20 block cause of the sun cause the hurricane will be 500 miles to your west.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 08:42 AM |
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Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica
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Street level map:
Full size map available at Skeetobite.com
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 08:45 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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Well, based on the current NHC track, I would say none. However, it's maybe 2 days before it clears Cuba, and we will know much more about a possible track by then.
While not currently forecast to do so, I would not be a bit surprised to see it jog right into central Florida. Not likely at this point, but don't take chances. Keep up on the reports, make plans, and relax.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 08:52 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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I'm trying to figure out why this westward jog was such a surprise and has everyone scrambling to change their forecast. My understanding the entire time was that it was forecast to either 1) go over the western tip of Jamaica or, 2) skirt just to the south of the island. Seems to me it's doing exactly what they said. Maybe not staying exactly on that red line they drew but definitely doing what they said in their discussion.
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 08:59 AM |
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Clark - last night quote
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Quote:
The UKMET model has shifted quite a bit west with the 00z run this morning. It now brings the storm inland near St. George Island, riding along U.S. 319 until it is almost directly over Tallahassee, then moving NNE into Georgia and South Carolina before slowing dramatically. Landfall timing is around 9-12z 9/15, or early morning Wednesday.
Let me know how this compares with the FSU model... I live on St George Island....
Susie -
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:00 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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I thought pretty early last night that the eye would stay clear of land. I just decided that interaction with Jamaica is now causing Ivan to swing back to the WNW. I'm thinking that without land interaction we would be seeing more W motion. If Jamaica is having this effect I'm wondering once Ivan is clear will a more W component show up again?
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:04 AM |
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New Projected Path
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My new favorite sat is the western Atlantic water vapor loop, which will soon be even better as Ivan enters the picture.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
The ridge over the US seems a lot smaller than it did yesterday, and the one over the Atlantic has weakened. The effect has been that the trough over Florida continues to be stationary. Unless movement occurs again, I see this as the path Ivan will take... that of least resistance.
So, for the first time.... the models and I are on the same page.!
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:05 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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I'm here in Orlando with you, Hurricaned. While it currently looks like we will get low force winds, there is certainly no chance that we should let up our guard. Like Tom Sorrells on WKMG Local likes to say, " No one has dodged the bullet yet."
However, when I first saw the predicted track of Ivan before it hit Grenada, I thought that it would heading into central GOM and making landfall in LA. I don't wish it on anyone, but it keeps looking further and further west. We'll have to see if that trough to the west breaks down any further.
My prayers are with those in Jamaica and the Caymans.
| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:06 AM |
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Alabama
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Well the one big thing I can see why for the scrambling. That wobble looks like it put Ivan on the same path as Charley trough Cuba. And we all know how little damage that did to Charley.
http://www.skeetobite.com/FLHurricane/ivantrack_adv36.gif
And from this, Cat 5 to Western FL isn't out of the question if it turns east in the GOM.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:06 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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Well, if you look at the last couple frames, it's definitely back to more of NW movement. At one point they were forecasting a turn to the NE once it got into the eastern GOM. Did the trough not move as far into the Gulf as they thought? I sure don't see that NE turn in the forecast anymore.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:07 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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Looking at the water vapor loops,you can see that Ivan may continue to go farther west before it makes its turn to the north.I wouldn't rule out a track as far west as Biloxi,Ms. at this stage of the game.Only time will tell. Wherever it makes landfall God Bless and protect those in its path. Watching from LaPlace , La.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:09 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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I agree. NHC has been working within the limits of the model data quite well! No real surprises here. There are some "experts" whose egos are a bit deflated this morning after calling for landfalls in southwest/southern Florida (still very much within the range of possibilities). I've seen many times where the models have shifted one way or another, only to shift back to where they were previously one or two runs later. And then, there's the matter of intensity and timing. I'm more intrigued by the slow down (more so than earlier forecast).
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:11 AM |
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Re: Alabama
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They haven't changed the intensity forecast at all, just the landfall. Oh well, we're still outside the 3 day forecast, and statistically, 4 and 5 day forecasts can have an error of +150 miles. I'm reserving judgment until it gets past Cuba. From what I'm hearing, neither the trough nor the ridge are coming in as far as they thought, steering currents are weak in the GOM, so Ivan could do whatever he wants when he gets past Cuba.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:13 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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Right now this storm and the models of future impacts on Cuba and US landfall will be during the next 6-12hours i feel. This is cause of the land interaction of Jamaica as its steering
around the island. Lets see if this now goes wnw towards Grand Cayman or more NW about 100 miles or so E. If it does the models will move back to the right some for its OZ run tonight and of course there are many aspects in the atmosphere too. Initziations of where it starts on the models will affect its starting and final direction it hits. Anyways for now, watch the wator vapor loops and movement the next 6-12 hours.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:15 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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You're right about the forecasts changing. With Frances the path it ended up taking was the original forecast, they started there, went all over the east coast and then came right back to the original forecast. Same with Charley (only west coast).
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:20 AM |
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NW path
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The slow down will be the main component of this, I think. I'm going out on a limb here and saying the eye will pass West of Grand Cayman.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/gulf_wv_loop.gif
It just looks like the next 12 hours are very good for Westward motion to me.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:22 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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As of now most models have shifted to the west (for now).
scottsvb1..... what do you think of the ECMWF and it's record?
A lot going on this Sept 11... but don't forget what took place 3 years ago on Sept 11, 2001.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:22 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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I dont think any of the experts said that there will be a landfall in S florida. Im not expert and I didnt. Right now to me still Tampa north is best chance but still the Keys could get some hurricane force winds if it jogs more east and still up to the panhandle region....right now its a near term event of whats going on around the storm. I posted that I wont give a landfall till today, well if it does go up to the panhandle that will be still 4 days out, so I might have a extra day to forcast landfall on my 3 day forcast.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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storm.....really to tell ya the truth, I dont like any of the models cause they are not consistant on a regular basis. The best way to interpet the models is see who has the best point A to point B then C and so on. Then again it can start to move off in the wrong direction. Over the U.S. I like the GFS but it has performed bad with IVAN and Frances. Ivan might end up with the path of 1 of the models in the end, but that would probably be a overall zig zag over the last 5-7 days as the models do change.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Alabama
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I was glad to see this morning that Jamaica was still there and didn't get a direct hit.............even though I'm sure they still sustained LOTS of damage. I was NOT happy to see that the projected path keeps changing west. It would be great to spare Florida, but I don't want it here either !!
I wasn't going to do this, but I can't resist. My Mom died 1 year ago on the 16th. I wrote the epitath on her headstone. (the third line is in German, so just ignore it) The bottom line is...................... the bottom line !!! I attached an actual pic just so nobody thinks I'm sharing an "urban legend" Hi Mom !
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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Nobody can let up their guard anywhere In western Florida. I see this thing jogging left, then right all day long. Remember Charley. When a Hurricane is traveling parallel to a coast line (West Coast of Florida) a slight jog of 2 degrees could cause a difference in landfall by hundreds of miles.
I hope this stays on its expected western path, but lets all be carefull. It is too early still.
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:29 AM |
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Spaghetti model down?
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What's up with the spaghetti model on the BoatUS page? Is it down or have they eliminated it? I like the noodle-method forecasting
- Susie
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:30 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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Quote:
I dont think any of the experts said that there will be a landfall in S florida.
Just last night, I was reading posts about a number of private forecasters calling for landfall along SW coast. They know who they are.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:33 AM |
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Re: Spaghetti model down?
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the graphic comes from Hurricane Alley which is working through some bandwidth problems right now, so no updates UFN.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:33 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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At this point, I do not believe we will be able to produce a confident forecast until 48 hours from now. The storm has made some significant wobbles, the most noticeable being the westward movement overnight. Now, it appears that Ivan has resumed a WNW motion. With such swinging, erratic movement the models cannot be relied upon at this time.
By looking at the water vapor imagery and upper level charts, I believe we can say with some confidence that Ivan is an eastern Gulf (Mobile east) storm. There is no way that Ivan will penetrate the trough in the western GOM, since it being re-inforced by new shortwaves. Model runs and official forecasts will change constantly, and will show a variety of scenarios for the east GOM. I don't give either of them much attention until 48 hours from now, when we will have a much better handle on the future track.
I think a major player in this forecast is an upper low that is retrograding westward toward the Bahamas now. Scott mentioned in his discussion how this has caused the ridge to nose down farther SW. I am having difficulty determining exactly how this will affect the steering pattern for Ivan, but it will be a major shaper of the ridge north of Ivan. The upper low will eventually weaken and we will have to see how the ridge responds to the low's influence over the next 48 hours.
God Bless,
Ronn
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:43 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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Ivan looks to be undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:44 AM |
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Re: Spaghetti model down?
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Quote:
What's up with the spaghetti model on the BoatUS page? Is it down or have they eliminated it? I like the noodle-method forecasting
My guess is the filename is not as the code wants it to be:)
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:52 AM |
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Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?
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I'm thinking along the same lines Ron
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 09:55 AM |
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Ronn
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I agree with you about this being an eastern gulf storm. There is just so far west that Ivan can go before he is forced to take that more northerly track because of the trough.
ShawnS
| SC Bill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:08 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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This might be because I am senile, but I can't recall, in past years, having quite the dramatic changes in the models, and forecast tracks, that we have been seeing this year ie. Charley, Frances, Ivan. Is this because we are trying to forecast further in advance (I think the "official 5-day track" is a relatively new thing?), or is it because each of these storms has had its own set of more complicated than usual weather parameters in which to move?
OR, is it like when you forget the pain of a traumatic event, I just don't remember the roller coaster rides of previous years? :?:
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:09 AM |
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GOM fo sho
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Question, of course...is exactly where. Dr. Steve Lyons thought the interaction with Jamaica caused the storm to skirt along the south in a west motion...and once leaving the influence of land..it would resume it's wnw track. It will be interesting to see if that is true. One thing for sure, it will not be a problem for the keys...at least...for now, it is looking that way.
Unpredictable...but it did go south of Jamaica, as I thought...
probably go through the Yucatan...and as slow as it is going..way to early, as the models and forecasters are saying...to tell who is in the bullseye.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:16 AM |
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Re: GOM fo sho
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The sfc ridge to the north of Ivan is hanging in there pretty strong, along with the upper level trough. I can't help but consider the possibility that Ivan will move farther west between Grand Cayman and Cozumel. Surface pressures haven't started dropping yet at Grand Cayman with the recent passage of an outer band.
... surface pressures are falling however over western Cuba.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:17 AM |
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Re: GOM fo sho
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safe to say south fl out of the woods?
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:21 AM |
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Re: GOM fo sho
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Quote:
safe to say south fl out of the woods?
Why do people even say this ? You are not out of the woods untill the storm is inland away from your area .
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 AM |
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Re: GOM fo sho
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not yet.depends on future conditions. read all the posts here throughly.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:26 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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Quote:
I can't recall, in past years, having quite the dramatic changes in the models, and forecast tracks, that we have been seeing this year ie. Charley, Frances, Ivan.
Yes, this is the first year of 5-day fcsts being released to the public, and we're seeing some of the short-term effects of how the media is handling the new information. Seems like a lot more confusion because we hear more people saying a variety of different things farther in advance. A lot of people talk as if the storm is going to hit their little corner of the world, which might just be true in some circumstances. The media can do a better job of educating, rather than just reacting to and propogating the hysteria.
The forecast tracks, models, etc. may seem a little more eratic, but that's because we've had way more than our usual number of storms around Florida, and Florida is at the latitude where a number of storms make their transition from the easterly tropics to the variable sub-tropics. The most difficult part of forecasting tropical cyclones is when they slow down or turn. Actually, I thought NHC has been very stable and consistent this year, despite the very unique challenges.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:31 AM |
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Re: GOM fo sho
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Agree entirely! Ivan bears watching until it's beyond your area. Again, pay attention to that "cone of concern" based on NHC forecast. There's a lot that goes into those forecasts!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:35 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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Charley didn't give too much notice about his landfall. Apparently Ivan does his own thing as well. Weren't all the forecasts making him a direct hit into Jamaica? Thank God our technology was a bit off and maybe they have been spared a bit. Point is, how can we look days into the future, when hurricanes change and catch us off guard in just a matter of hours??
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:37 AM |
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Re: GOM fo sho
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In reference to whether some area is out of the woods or not, back to Isabel last year we were on guard till it passed our area on the coast. Just the idea of having something that powerful hugging the coast as Ivan is appearing to do soon is enough to keep most people on alert. It is truly time to make sure your weather radio is fully stocked with spare batteries!
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:41 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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Quote:
Charley didn't give too much notice about his landfall. Apparently Ivan does his own thing as well. Weren't all the forecasts making him a direct hit into Jamaica? Thank God our technology was a bit off and maybe they have been spared a bit. Point is, how can we look days into the future, when hurricanes change and catch us off guard in just a matter of hours??
It's a miracle that we have the technology that even allows us to guestimate where these cyclones are moving with some pretty good accuracy. The problem is that we don't take the errors of distance, timing and intensity into account when we receive the forecasts ... we're fixated on a line; we don't see the forest because of the trees
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:45 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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Charley taught me to look at the areas to the right and left of the center line track and recheck my vulnerabilities......IOW's board up automatically at the hint of a storm coming by. NHC is an excellent resource which tells us all to look at the error margins................I commend them for their hard work.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 10:55 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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Even if NHC forecasts Ivan to be farther west of Florida, all of us along the Gulf coast need to stay alert.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 11:00 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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I'm alert but, I'm gonna enjoy the weekend and get away from this tracking for a few hours.
Should be a great day in Florida so lets get outside and enjoy it and step away from the computer.
At least that's what I'm gonna do.......hard as it might be.....I'm going......I really am......
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 11:01 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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A friend of mine just called me and said that Dr Steve Lyons was just on and had the center line into Tampa again I didnt see it. Did any of you? I know that the center line means nothing however just wondered if anyone saw that.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 11:02 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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.. and just before we enjoy the beautiful weather ... here's a recent storm report from Jamaica
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 11:36 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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I know it is just me but it sure looks like the trough may be getting somewhat weaker. But it is a WV so more than likely I'm wrong on this.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
ShawnS
| Chad |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 11:47 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML
Check out the WV loop here.
Does it indicate that the ridge is weakening or pulling back? The SE edge seems to be breaking up some.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 11:50 AM |
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Re: Ronn
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your friend was lying,, i didnt see that..lol anyways seriously though, tampa isnt out of the question. If you look at the water vapor loop you can see what could be the final determining factor on where Ivan will end up. There is a fast short wave pulse diving se into Kansas and Oklahoma from the Rockies and the Pacific northwest.....now since Ivan is moving slowly near 8mph and is expected to stay moving slowly the next 48 hours,, this should give this pulse time to dive down into the N central gulf by Monday morning. By then Ivan should be near 22N and 82W moving NNW or N. Should this pulse continue east ( which it could) then that would deflect the hurricane off to the NNE or even NE after it gets north of 25-27N and 84W. Looking like BigBend area right now but not sure yet,,,,so anywhere from Venice up to Ft Walton Beach needs to keep a eye on this. Right now S Florida shouldnt get more then TS force winds if the center makes landfall in west central forida. The keys still arent completely out of a threat to get hurricane force winds,,especially in Keywest, but landfall there is less then 20% right now.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 11:54 AM |
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Re: Models
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Looking at the latest NHC track and the model runs, it as of now looks a lot like the track of Frances.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 11:57 AM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:
Looking at the latest NHC track and the model runs, it as of now looks a lot like the track of Frances.
Don't you mean Charley ?
| Kimster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 11:58 AM |
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Re: GOM fo sho
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...or at least north of your location.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:00 PM |
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Re: Models
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No, I am speaking of Frances and the last clustering of model runs for her.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:02 PM |
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Re: Models
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Frances came from the east,,,,,,,,plus the models were split with her too.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:06 PM |
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Re: Models
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Morning/Afternoon, all...
Won't say anything more about 9/11 other than to remember those who gave the ultimate sacrifice to save others (fire/police/ems/et. al.) and the innocents who perished at the hands of the terrorists...several of whom I knew personally...OK that's it...onto Ivan:
How the hell did he dance around Jamaica like that? That's fantastic for the Island...still lots of destruction, but no direct hit...Rick...did you do some voodoo dance to save them? Well, whatever it was, maybe he's gonna give us all a break...doubtful...but possible.
Next up: Grand Cayman...I was there in 2000 and they were still, in some areas, recovering from Gilbert...amazing. Lets hope Ivan does the chicken dance around them too. Also visited Little Cayman and Cayman Brac...nothing but a couple of beautiful homes combined with some ramshackle huts there...let's hope they're spared.
I think Coop meant Charley, not Frances...boy are they taking similar paths.
Sticking with my SW Landfall, despite all the modeling and visuals to the contrary...if you are going to go down, you might as well take the ship with you, no? Naples landfall Tuesday afternoon. Probably be off by 500 miles and 24 hours, but at least I can admit a blown forecastsvb...
Anyhoo, today is a somber day for me personally but there's still the weather.
Peace, y'all.
Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:08 PM |
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Re: Models
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what you talking about blown forecast?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:13 PM |
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Re: Models
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I think you're right. I did extend my personal "cone" From Tampa south, but still see Punta Gorda south. Good thing I'm not a met, I guess.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:20 PM |
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Re: Models
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My sympathies to you Phil on 911................it was a disaster for our family albiet a smaller scale but still we are in recovery from the event.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:27 PM |
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Re: Models
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Your right LI phil you might as well stay with the same forecast, as opposed to changing it back and forth. The models might be shifting but the landfall is already written in stone. Also by the way, JB's explanation of the Frictional effects actually worked out in this situation, that's why it pulled away from Jamica.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:38 PM |
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Re: Models
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well i posted last night a 3 day forcast track and stated i wasnt sure where it will make landfall and I didnt think it would get past 85w. It still might not but if it does it will be more then 3 days out. I dont like giving out forcasts more then 3 days out but I will guess up to 5days. I have always said Panama City wasnt out of the question,, but so isnt Tampa, now if it goes farther west then 85w at landfall then it will be after my 3 day path and yeah after 3 days you can update your path. Anyone want to make a 2 week forcast? Of course not. NHC changes theyre tracks every 6 hours. I like to adjust mine every 2-3 days. Right now as of friday I had my 3 day forcast near 25N and 83-84w around Monday afternoon. If that is near that spot then I been still right now with that 3 day forcast....anything after that as i posted is speculation. I have this posted on fridays thread,, i tried to get it quoted on this one but IM message board illiterate. I dont know how to do it, so if anyone can,, then plz do so. Ty.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:41 PM |
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Re: Models
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First off, I too, want to extend my sympathies to all of those who were directly affected by 9/11 (we were all affected in different ways). I also want to salute those who are defending us so we have our freedoms. I am reminded of a quote by Jimmy Carter who said on 9/11 Americans never felt prouder, but now that feeling is gone. On 9/11, I felt a lot of things, but proud was not one. Try anger, fright (worried about the mail in my area from anthrax right after), and being mad as hell.
Back to the subject at hand:
The new GFS is rolling in as I type, out to 162 hours, and talk about a dramatic shift. It now takes it through the Yucatan channel, and has a Fla. panhandle landfall. In then tracks it north towards Ohio, which I have to question, because it should start to be influenced by the westerlies by then. This is a dramatic shift west in my view, but I want to await the model diagnostics to see how this initialized. Last night, it initialized too far south and west. The GFS biases in the past have been to be too far west. The last few storms, it has been too far east. Needless to say, it muddies the waters
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:46 PM |
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Re: Models
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The GFS always seems to blow minor differences into huge changes. It makes troughs and ridges stronger then they normally are, and that's why the GFS forecasts are not so consitent. Other models do this too, but the GFS is, say the more popular one
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:48 PM |
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Re: Models
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I doubt we as Americans realize that 911 tragedies are part and parcel of the third world countries' daily lives. These recent hurricanes have been just as disasterous to families who become displaced.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 12:57 PM |
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Re: Models
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First off...scottsvb...sorry if I offended you. But you have to admit we ALL blow forecasts (I'm the #1 offender by far) but we do admit it when we do...you're not perfect...but you're pretty damn good...I'm gonna be bulking crow sandwiches for the next three days and I'm hungry for more.
Second off...thanks to those who expressed their sympathies for their 9/11 thoughts, especially Redbird...however...you cannot compare an intentional and planned terrorist attack with the misfortune that befalls those ravaged by hurricanes...sure, I feel horrible for the victims and their families...but that's madre natura...not al kaida (sp?).
Let's keep it on Ivan, as there are PLENTY of things to discuss there, k? Thanks
Again, scott, didn't mean to bust on ya...
BTW, if you send mike an email at: mike@flhurricane.com, he can recover your password and you can be logged in and send PMs and the like...just a thought.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:00 PM |
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eye wall rebuilding project
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Looks like Ivan is starting to get nasty again. Think it will just miss the Islands ahead of it..and slip through the Yucatan.
Haven't looked at the long term...cause it's a crap shoot past a day or so...anyhoo...
If it gets in the channel...then Florida mainland is spared...and I think we all can hope for that...
the long term thoughts are that the wind shear, troughs, and the like will weaken Ivan as it gets close to land. However, nothing like HOT SST's...and unpredictable patterns...to gum that up...
New Orleans as a major storm would be the worst case scenario for all.
Mobile for me would be worst case...
and best case is to stall...then get beat up by the trough, and come in as an aggravating cat 2...
we will see...for now...through the Yucatan...then the fun begins...
wonder what the People who fled the Keys will do next time they are asked to leave?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:12 PM |
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Re: eye wall rebuilding project
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Hopefully they'll still leave. Right now, even if they don't get the storm some people could be in trouble. The hospitals announced an hour ago that they are closed. They will not even take emergency's. They evacuated all their surgical patients to Alabama yesterday. If you are in the Keys right now you are on your own.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:14 PM |
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Trough's Effect On Ivan
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I'm starting to think that the trough in the gulf now will not effect Ivan too much. It will have to wait until the next one that is in the Kansas/Oklahoma area to sweep in and cause the north motion. Just my opinion.
ShawnS
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:18 PM |
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Re: Models
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Strangely enough though, of the dynamical models (excluding combinations of multiple models and the like), the GFS has the least amount of errors at 3-5 days. The only problem is that most of them are location/track and not time errors - i.e. it is saying Jacksonville instead of Cape Canaveral instead of saying Cape Canaveral at 6z day 5 versus Cape Canaveral at 6z day 6. In my view, if there is going to be error, it's better to get the location right than the exact timing - particularly if you are going to be too fast with the storm. It is in this that model track error analyses just based upon miles can be misleading.
Needless to say though, the models have come into better agreement on a track...I just wish what was actually going on out there would match with that! I would've expected a more westward movement a day or two ago based upon what is/what is going to be out there, but the models were mostly east. Now, I'd expect a slight bit more of a turn to the N based upon the weather pattern, but the models are mostly west now.
It just goes to show you that no one from Biloxi east needs to let their guard down with this storm.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:22 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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>>want to make a 2 week forcast?
I put mine out Monday if that counts. I had it from Moss Point to Seaside. When the models clustered around Port Charlotte again yesterday, I presented it. But I'm sticking with what I went with to begin with even if I end up too far west.
Bastardi mentioned 3 scenarios with this storm. He changed his forecast yesterday and may regret it. Scenario #1 (which was always his take until he changed horses) was that it was coming in somewhere between the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Apalachacola. If this is the case, he expects a MAJOR hit (big time, not necessarily a quote-unquote major hurricane). Scenario #2 is Charley redux. The storm comes in close enough to the coast of FL and gets pulled in south of Tampa with a storm about the size of Frances with the strength of Charley. It makes its way up to the Carolinas as the worst rain event yet for them. Scenario #3 takes the storm into the Big Bend area (the TPC track from earlier) but not as a major. Apparently almost every storm going in that area landfalls at < 85mph (or at least according to his research).
So we'll see. No one's off the hook, but I think my original 6 day forecast may end up being a tad west while the NHC's current is probably a tad east. The compromise is Seaside-Blue Mt. Beach-Seagrove, etc. to SW of Perry.
9/11 pisses me off to no end. One day someone's going to make it a priority for those scumbags to be brought to justice
Steve
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:36 PM |
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Re: eye wall rebuilding project
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Anyone notice Ivan has basically been parked at SW Jamaica since late last night? It's not that far off shore, either. Boy, are they getting hammered.
Yeah, I figured Ivan to weaken more than it has... I do believe the eye is becoming more stable. Outflow is heavy but semetrical, not coming off in chunks like Frances. I think it may be at least in a holding pattern, if not strengthening slowly over the next few hours. Edit: I wanted to add I think speed will pick up with strength returning.
I can't see it making to the Yucatan pass yet. I'll still hold out for a pass West of Grand Cayman and North over the end of Cuba.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:38 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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Looks like an ERC is moving towards completion, as another larger eye is starting to emerge. It is going through a pronounced wobble while this is occurring, but looks to be moving wnw. I would expect a vortex message to be out soon, it will be interesting to see the report. I would expect a slightly higher pressure due to the ERC.
It also appears to be following the latest forecast plots well (Thanks again Frank for the link)
| Second Shift |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:44 PM |
Re: Models
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You folks have been through enough! Given the NHS track, will there be anything left of Sanibel/Captiva by the time this thing is over with? We have some relatives who winter down there, and their condo was toast after Charley.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:47 PM |
Re: eye wall rebuilding project
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Folks, over the last year I have really begun to look at these more close. Writing from Tampa, anyone think based on the link there is some new/more north movement?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:47 PM |
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Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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Looks like he's begun another northward jog after his dance with the Jamaican coast...I still will go with a split the uprights call for the Grand Cayman/Little Cayman/Cayman Brac jog. A direct hit on Grand Cayman would devastate their tourism industry and I can't see it going any further west of that island. Rick may be right with this one...he's certainly nailed it so far. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent the N and eventually NNE turn is coming. Wish it could be in time to take it over the big mountains of E Coobah but probably not.
Once in the GOM...possibly as a CAT V? Where then?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:50 PM |
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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It is the novice again, anyone have any info on the impact so far for Camaguey Cuba, my wifes hometown? Thanks again for all the info and insight
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:52 PM |
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Re: eye wall rebuilding project
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I know, that's weird. It doesn't seem like it's moving as fast as they forecast. I wonder if that means it's getting ready to make that turn around the ridge. Didn't they say it would slow way down before it started turning?
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:53 PM |
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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what did rick forecast? or where can i find his post. Thanks lil phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:53 PM |
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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I wouldn't bet against it reaching CAT V status again, especially since the eye is becoming a little more distinct again. Hopefully it won't happen though.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:55 PM |
Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica
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Use your energy to focus Ivan to the furthest of west points. NOT Florida or the East Coast states the damage is too much now. Focus and moved it west past land until it hits the Pacific cold water ridge --
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:56 PM |
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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It will prob most likely get back to CAT 5 satus again, maybe even break it's own record of 919 mbs. That area under Cuba is known for where hurricanes bomb (Gilbert), they have help in outflow and the water temp is warmer, and to top it off hardly any shear. But the dry air over Cuba should hinder the devlopment of Ivan somewhat, or maybe it will never even effect him at all, who knows.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:56 PM |
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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I hope not! Havent seen you here lately welcome back!
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:56 PM |
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cranking up again
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Based on lastest frames I can find I think the eye is about to open up. It looks pretty healthy in there, although it looks like Jamaica is beginning to block off some of the power supply to Ivan. The North side looks thinner than the rest. If correct, this too shall pass.
Caymans are going to have a ringside seat for this. I just noticed that Grand Cayman could fit inside the Eye. Ick!
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:57 PM |
Re: eye wall rebuilding project
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What is that showing coming up into the southern part of Florida from south of Ivan??
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 PM |
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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Of particular interest to me is the fact that the models now have a NE turn at the end of the tracks (after the storm comes onshore). Earlier they were mainly showing a due north component. If the NE turn is verified (does happen) timing will once again become critical in regard to the FL peninsula. Should Ivan dally around for a day like Frances did, and the NE turn becomes a reality, we could be back under the gun.
Of course, the conditions required to turn the storm NE may only exist further north, so this may not verify, but its something to watch.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 PM |
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North?
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http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...ne&pid=none
Please tell me where the northward movement is? I saw a little jog to the nw but now it seems it has gone back to the west again but no definite north to it.
ShawnS
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 PM |
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Re: cranking up again
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991
URNT12 KNHC 111730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1730Z
B. 17 DEG 58 MIN N
78 DEG 53 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2414 M
D. 80 KT
E. 323 DEG 067 NM
F. 049 DEG 141 KT
G. 309 DEG 012 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 10 C/ 3101 M
J. 17 C/ 3089 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 141 KT NW QUAD 1726Z.
MAX FL TEMP 19C 304/06 NM FROM FL CNTR
Made it through ERC intact, not even much pressure change. Cat 5 is looking more likely in my opinion.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 01:59 PM |
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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your right steve,, you did give out that forcaste,,or actually Guess.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:01 PM |
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Re: eye wall rebuilding project
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Quote:
What is that showing coming up into the southern part of Florida from south of Ivan??
Can you send the link to what you see?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:02 PM |
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Re: North?
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Sometimes it just seems like it's going west because the system is spinning but if you plot the corridinates over say the last 12 hours then you can notice the movement. Keep in mind that a little jog here and there, adds on some mins of Latitude.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:02 PM |
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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>>> what did rick forecast? or where can i find his post. Thanks lil phil
You're joking right? And it's LI (as in Long Island) Phil, not lil Phil
You can find rick's forecasts on the previous two pages, also on every thread since about 1999.
Seriously though, he called for Ivan to miss Jamaica and it sure did. Right now, he's calling for it to get into the Yucatan Channel...a bit west of where the models are trending it, but he's been spot on thus far. No one but fool me has made a call after Coobah, but I can hazard a guess as to where he thinks it will go after that...
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:02 PM |
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Re: eye wall rebuilding project
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html
Look below Ivan and tracking up into Florida. What in the world is that?
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:03 PM |
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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Ive been waiting for your forecast since yesterday. are you ready to give it yet? maybe too early?
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:04 PM |
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Re: North?
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I didn't see a jog either way. It was going through an ERC and I think the eye was just a little ragged. Sometimes that makes it look like a jog. In my extremely scientific method, I took a straightedge, held it up to the screen, made sure it was lined up at the "eye level" on both ends of the loop. That way you can get a general direction, wobbles aside. Personally, I think it's better that way because it may hop north, then west, but the end result is still NW.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:05 PM |
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Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?
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yeah a lil typo there one too many l's.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:06 PM |
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Re: Models
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Thanks Clark, your really know a lot about models so here is a question; how come they don't mix the GFS with another model that works good in predicting landfall, the best of both worlds? Don't want to interupt the Ivan conversation.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:08 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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I think you are right about the so called trough affecting Ivan. I keep looking at the water vapor loops and the ridge of high pressure that is diving down across Cuba continues to move all of the cloud patterns off to the west.I may be wrong but I think Ivan may very well end up in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico if something doesn't give pretty soon. Also if you look at the water vapor loop for the Gulf of Mexico,it looks like the so called trough is being pushed back northward below Miss. & Alabama.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:13 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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Am pretty weather ignorant here, but do these troughs and ridges really have a big effect on a hurricane that is a huge intensity of power?
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:13 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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Is it just me, or does Ivan have mesovortices in his eye?
P.S. Sorry if this has already been discussed, but I haven't had a chance to read through all the posts.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:15 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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Everything has an effect on hurricanes, because they are in such a weak steerring currents, the slightest change can be very evident.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:15 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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I concur; I do believe to see something inside the eye.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:16 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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When the eye starts to clear out there is some residual cloud cover, that might be what you're seeing.
| Second Shift |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:16 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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HMY, go figure, I am from Iowa! I had the same question. Another question I have is how do the Fujita and the Saffir-Simpson scale compare in damage intensity? Anyone?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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The fujita and the Saffir scale are totally different. The F5 twister packs increbile damage but to a small radius, while a hurricane packs less damage into a larger radius, the converse. Hope that helps.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 PM |
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Willy
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Thanks for the 2nd on what I thought I was seeing. However, even IF the trough that is there now was to totally disappear at this moment, a new one is coming in from the Kansas/Oklahoma area as we speak that would catch Ivan and still pull him north to ne before it got into the central gulf.
ShawnS
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:22 PM |
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Re: eye wall rebuilding project
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FireAng85 -- those are just the spots where the model runs initialized Ivan, not other storms. It is just that not all of the models were started at the same time, and Ivan was at different spots when they were run....thus the different storm symbols.
Jason234 -- they do that to some degree in the official forecasts. And, it is not always hard and fast that the AVN/GFS will do well on timing but bad on location, the UKMET will do this, the NOGAPS will do that, and so on. To tell the truth though, taking all of that into account is what the FSU Superensemble and other multimodel ensemble forecasts (including model consensus tracks, to a lesser degree) try to do -- eliminate the known biases in model output tracks to come up with an improved forecast, both in terms of timing and location.
Note though how these multimodel ensembles are different than single-model ensembles, such as the GFS Ensemble forecast system. These single-model ensembles work by creating new model runs by tweaking the actual conditions in the atmosphere to see what the effects are on the weather pattern in the future. By combining all of these in a weighted fashion into one forecast, the hope is to eliminate a lot of biases that may arise in the main model forecast from bad data, missing data, or a bad handle on the current situation. The ultimate goal is the same, but the manner at which it is done - single model versus multiple model, actual weather/atmosphere dynamics versus pure statistics - is completely different.
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:24 PM |
Re: eye wall rebuilding project
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ok, disregard my last post. I swear there was something there and now it's gone. Despite popular belief, I'm not crazy. It was there.
| Second Shift |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:25 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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Thanks Jason. You have excellent info. Not to take any focus away from Ivan, but I am a little lite in the lingo re Acronyms on the Forum. Any suggestions where to go?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:27 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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So Clark what do you think of the pulse coming down from the southern plains will have if any affect on Ivan??? I think it will have a affect but i would like to hear your opinion if you have 1 on this, ty.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:28 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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What do you mean by acronyms, converse? Converse means the exact opposite of the truth statement while an Inverse means to negate the turth statement.
This one's going in the comedy forum once we're through with Ivan!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:29 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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I'm not seeing the trough? Is it a thermal trough, that comes during the day and leaves during the night? Thanks
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:30 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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I'm not sure who first tipped me off to this link. Might have been jamiewx, but not sure. This one belongs in everyone's bookmarks.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:30 PM |
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Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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The Fujita scale was developed in the 1970s to classify the intensity of tornadoes. It is a subjective scale, as winds in a tornado are often not directly measured -- and it is not very safe to do so accurately, and very hard to do it accurately while staying safe! -- and are instead estimated based upon observed damage. It is a scale that bridges the gap between the Beaufort scale (mostly used by mariners for classifying wind speeds) with F1 starting at Beaufort 12 and the Mach scale, with F12 equal to Mach 1 (or 738mph). However, there have been no tornadoes definitively above F5 in recorded history.
The Saffir-Simpson scale was developed in 1969 as a means of classifying hurricane damage based upon intensity for a WMO project. The categories were developed by the then-director of the NHC, Dr. Simpson, along with Herbert Saffir, an engineer, and the speeds were assigned based upon breaks in observed damage. This contrasts with the Fujita scale, where the speeds were spread apart to bridge the Beaufort and Mach scales. Obviously, as most people know the Saffir-Simpson scale, a complete treatise on the subject is rather unnecessary. The NHC has a good reference on the types of storms by category (damage, surge, and other characteristics) on their webpage.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 PM |
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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Hey Phil, you see that bout forecast is very simular to mine by 25N and 83-84W? LOL of course watching the impulse droping down... Just dont know where it will lay down for this to go due North or even NE.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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>>> I am a little lite in the lingo re Acronyms on the Forum. Any suggestions where to go
Right here. Either click on the "General Info" link to the left or click here and scroll down to the Acronym section
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:35 PM |
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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Jesus scott,,,,,its boat,,,,learn to spell.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:36 PM |
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Jason234
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http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
If you look around the Kansas area you can see the spinning and the trough that is trailing through and headed towards Texas. This would be "Plan B" if for some reason the first trough has no impact on Ivan.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:36 PM |
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is the canadian model reliable?
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is this a reliable model
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:37 PM |
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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scott...lol...I was wondering what you refering to. That's a great link, especially for those of us like me who are quite challenged by numerical and text models...graphical ones work much better!
BTW, why is Cantore broadcasting from Punta Gorda? Do they really need a reminder or is it for the effect of showing all the damage from Charley? Either way, I think it's in bad taste.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:41 PM |
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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Hes down there to collect sea shells from the aftermath of Charley, then im sure he will go north to the big bend area.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:46 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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It might have an impact, yes, but moreso of one weakening the ridge as opposed to dropping down and picking Ivan up. The impulse is a bit far to the north and not diving much to the south to have much more of an impact than that on Ivan, in my opinion. In fact, based upon the upper-air data and water-vapor imagery, the trough is about done digging and should begin to move zonally or lift ever-so-slightly with time. Just my view, though.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 PM |
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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Clark you still there? What do you think of the pulse diving se from the southern plains will have a affect on Ivan (if any)....Jason what do you think?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 PM |
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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ok.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 PM |
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Re: is the canadian model reliable?
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The Canadian model is not historically one of the better performing "global" dynamical models when it comes to tropical cyclones, but it's better than many of the other models out there.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:50 PM |
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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Quote:
scott...lol...I was wondering what you refering to. That's a great link, especially for those of us like me who are quite challenged by numerical and text models...graphical ones work much better!
BTW, why is Cantore broadcasting from Punta Gorda? Do they really need a reminder or is it for the effect of showing all the damage from Charley? Either way, I think it's in bad taste.
Actually, I think he's doing them a favor. Unless his track record has changed recently, isn't always at the spot that doesn't get the hurricane? I'm thinking TWC wanted to spare Punta Gorda a second landfall.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:52 PM |
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Clark
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First of all, great posts from you here. We have such good people at this site.
Second, just throwing this out, what if this second trough doesn't do a whole lot to break down the ridge,ala...the first trough? What would be next? I'm only asking because it looks like the first trough didn't have near the impact it was forcasted to do. Then again, there may have been some surprises in there too that help to contribute to that. I don't know.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 02:54 PM |
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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ok well looking at the sat coord of IVAN and looking at the latest model runs, already the GFDL is too far sw with this having it near 18N and 80W, its already 18.1 and projected to be near 18.5 or .6 near 80W I wont talk about the tropical model suites, they run pretty much off of the GFS...Right now if I picked models it would be the Nogaps,,,anyone recieve the Ukmet 12z yet?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:03 PM |
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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I think it might have some effect, as Clark said before the trough is starting to stop "digging" and will soon "lift", so in my opinion there will be little effect on Ivan from the trough. Also, I feel that ridges have more of an effect on hurricanes than troughs, just a thought.
| Cane Watcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:04 PM |
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Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica
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Not trying to get off topic, but check out some of the stories posted on storm carib from Jamaica. It didn't sound like it was a lot of fun. Here is the link: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:06 PM |
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Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson
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I think if you look at the NOGAPS model it may very well be the track that Ivan will take . Not doing any wishcasting but I think the track may even be a little bit west of the NOGAPS track .Don't ask me why but I just have this feeling it will be in the middle of the Gulf on Monday.Nature is not something we can predict by ridges and troughs,mother nature does pretty much what it wants.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:12 PM |
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Willy
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Let's say you are correct that Ivan ends up in the central gulf; is it headed nw,north,ne?
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:21 PM |
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Re: Willy
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I wish i could say which direction it may head but like I said nature does pretty much what it wants to. I have been looking at the water vapor loops and I think it may very well pass just south of the mississipi river outlet and then proceed to the northeast.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:32 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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Finally able to take a look at some models as the computer at my house is still without power. Ivan sure did track a lot further west than north from 11pm last night to 2pm this afternoon. To the tune of .5 degrees north and 2.1 degrees west. Looking at the WV loops it seems that the ridge hasn't moved much further west, but it's appeared to extended itself further south, to over the western end of Cuba. This should keep Ivan south until he can feel his way into the trough. My earlier call of Ivan tracking north along about 83.4 west might prove to be a bit too far to the east. Now I see the storm tracking a bit further west of the Isla de la Juventud and over the western tip of Cuba. Still lots up in the air though that can impact the track.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:35 PM |
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Opinions on current motion
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Does it look like Ivan has resumed a more NWerly course now that it is beyond the island. Looking at a 24 hour sat loop, it appears to me that Ivan bounced around the shoreline and is resuming a course that he had prior to the approach. It looks like he could reach 19N 82W. Probably closer to 18.7N. However, these positions would appear to the right of current guidence. Am I just seeing things. Seemed more apparent on the visible loop, which may be playing with light angles.
Nevermind. While site was down I noticed it was more of a stairstep. Not a significant motion.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:38 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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Just heard that recon found Ivan to be a Cat5 again. Pressure down to 914mb and winds 165mph at surface.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 06:45 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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Oops I actually decided to go do things besides the site today and it went down around 3:30, it's back though now. Apologies.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 06:47 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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Quote:
Oops I actually decided to go do things besides the site today and it went down around 3:30, it's back though now. Apologies.
Murphy always rules
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 06:50 PM |
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current path
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Wow, so now it's going West?
Certainly got it's strength back as well.
Poor Jamaica. It's just now really moving off of station. They just got creamed.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 06:52 PM |
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Re: current path
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952
URNT12 KNHC 112218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/2218Z
B. 18 DEG 07 MIN N
79 DEG 29 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2309 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 318 DEG 135 KT
G. 217 DEG 010 NM
H. 912 MB
I. 12 C/ 3119 M
J. 22 C/ 3108 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C17
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 1909Z
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 06:53 PM |
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Canadian Club for Steve?
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Mike...you're not allowed to have a life
. You can't leave the site for a second.One good thing about the site going down was that I was able to check out a whole bunch of other stuff, read up on all the models, etc.
Steve, have you seen the canadian? It's the westerly outlier of course, but it also puts you in the bullseye.
The models have all shifted westward, so now it looks as though JK, co-mod Coop & Andy1Tom might need to think about heading to GA.
Accuweather has a strange cone, the easternmost part of it has little old moi as an end target. Let's stay away from that one, shall we?
CAT V and still strengthening? Good lord, Grand Cayman had better have all their planes in the air NOW with residents aboard. Hope the cruise ships bolted town...
Anyhoo...glad the site is back up. I was worried I'd have to watch two russian women smack a little yellow sphere around all night...
Peace, and pray for Grand Cayman!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 06:55 PM |
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912 mb
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Storm IVAN: Observed By AF #966
Storm #09 in Atlantic Ocean
Date/Time of Recon Report: Saturday, September 11, 2004 17:18:00
Position of the center: 18° 07' N 79° 29' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2309m (Normal: 3011)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: KT
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 135KT (155.25mph) From 318°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 010nm (11.5miles) From Center At Bearing 217°
Minimum pressure: 912mb (26.93in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being C17
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Sixth strongest hurricane ever
Records:
1. Hurricane GILBERT 888 mb 160 KT
2. 1935 FL KEYS 892 mb ??? KT (Gusts reported to 175 KT)
3. Hurricane ALLEN 899 mb 165 KT
4. Hurricane CAMILLE 905 mb 165 KT
4. Hurricane MITCH 905 mb 155 KT
6. Hurricane IVAN 912 mb 145 KT
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 06:57 PM |
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What? Western Gulf?
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http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html
VERY INTERESTING WHAT THIS SAYS!
ShawnS
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 06:58 PM |
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Re: current path
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While the Atlantic trough continues to sag (nearly to Yucatan!) the flip side is there's not much left of it East of Florida! I guess the path of least resistance is towards the West, but I'm getting concerned about when it turns North. I guess a huge loop back to Florida from the central GOM would be dumb, but still...
That SE trough is really reinforced at the moment. I'm still not sure how Ivan is going to interact with that.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 06:59 PM |
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Re: current path
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NEW THREAD...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 06:59 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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The trough is very evident today, as it brings clouds and an overcast but dry weather here in Long Island. The trough will pick up Ivan later in the forecast period I think and bringing huge amounts of rain to the Applachian moutain area, and people in New york and pennslyania. The main concern for most people is where will it landfall, well right now it seems as though it will slam into the Florida Panhandle but my thinking is more west for this reason. The ridge in the east is going to build because of the jet once again entering the United States, this will cause Ivan to stay on it's wnw to nw course, until the trough starts acting upon it and grabing it but by then it will have already caused it's devastation. So, anyone in the area from New Orleans to about Tampa now seems that will have a major hurricane make landfall, but nothing is certain yet
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 07:01 PM |
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Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan
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On several of the tv stations here they were saying that the forecasts were all based on the assumption that Ivan would beat the trough currently moving down to the Gulf. More to the point, they said it was a race with respect to what arrived in the GOM first, the trough or Ivan. If the trough gets here first, the forecast shifts back to the right, if not, it stays where it is. Any thoughts on what is "winning"? I'm a little concerned that Ivan doesn't seem to be in any hurry at the moment. I don't like it when I hear things like it's a race, and steering currents are weak once past Cuba. That usually doesn't bode well for last minute preparations (still remembering Charley's quick turn at the last minute). Don't get me wrong, we have all our supplies, etc, but...I don't like the idea of a last minute panic if it heads our way.
| mud1967 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 07:11 PM |
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Re: 912 mb
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I wanted to know how far west are you guys talking about. It's been awhile since I've had a chance to look here today. I live in Tallahassee and the NHC seems to be just left of me. Why is it that it looses so much strength after passing Cuba on it's way to the Panhandle. Will it make landfall closer to Tallahassee or Pensacola?