MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 12 2004 10:54 PM
Ivan Category 5 Again

3PM
Ivan has began its move more northwest now.

Tropical Depression #11 has formed east of the Leeward Islands, first advisory will be at 5PM

Noon Update

Ivan remains a category 5, and probably will for a little longer, but shear is forecast to increase so it may weaken later, back to a category 4. In any case the storm is expected to remain a major hurricane.

The tropical storm watch is still up for the Florida keys, as some of the extreme outer bands are even extending iinto South Florida.

Errors may be large in this forecast track!

Thanks Skeetobite



The track is similar to the previous NHC advisory, but a little more east.


10AM Update
This morning Ivan's track has been shifted left, cetered around the Alabama/Florida border. The cone of error extends westward to Central Louisana and Eastward to Florida's Big Bend. There is still enough uncertainty that the west coast of Florida needs to watch it as well. Nobody in the gulf is all clear yet, unfortunately. But the NHC's track is the most likely.

Also there is a tropical wave approaching the leeward islans of the Caribbean that may form into Tropical Depression Eleven later today.



Original Very Long Update
Hurricane Ivan is again a category 5 storm, Hurricane Hunter aircraft found an extremely violent eyewall in their latest pass, with hail and lightning (which is extremely rare for a hurricane of this strength) Maximum sustained winds are 160MpH and the track is still taking it toward the Panhandle, although closer to the Alabama border.

Still yet the certainty of the track and more so intensity when it nears is up for grabs. The system has not made a distinct northerly turn yet, it may clip the extreme western edge of Cuba, but with the "land avoidance" trait that Ivan has had (except for Grenada) I wouldn't be surprised if it were to go through the straits.



It will be a nervous next few days in the Gulf. But the best thing to do is be prepared if it were to head your way if you live along the Gulf coast. And keep an eye on the storm.

If it stays on the forecast track, inland will have flooding problems in areas like Georgia, and the Carolinas. More to come later.

Reposted from Clark E:

Ivan is currently finishing up an eyewall replacement cycle, as recon has recently reported just one, larger eyewall of 28 n. mi. in diameter. Satellite photos confirm this, as the eye became less distinct an hour or two ago, but has shown signs of reappearing in recent images. From here, another 6-12hr of consolidation can be expected followed by one last shot at restrengthening before a combination of factors -- interactions with Cuba, eyewall/internal system dynamics, and a weakened outflow channel to the NE -- result in slow but steady weakening entering the Gulf.

Right now, outflow is impressive in all quadrants but to the NW, where it is only fair. However, this has been the case for a day or two now, and we can all see what effect this has had on the storm -- not much. Last pressure was 917mb, while the height of the 700mb surface remains below 2400m...or over 600m below "normal." A 20% difference shows you how strong this storm is on the whole. A little bit of dry air appears to be impinging upon the storm on the north & northwest sides, but this is mainly a result of dry air off of Cuba than anything else.

Essentially, the dry air you see surrounding Ivan is a result of the storm itself and nothing that should impact the strength of the storm. In the atmosphere, generally rising and sinking motion should approximately balance out over a large area. Inside Ivan, there is a large amount of rising air, creating the convection powering the storm. Only a small fraction of this rising motion is counterbalanced by sinking motion in the eye; the rest has to balanced out along the periphery of the storm, thus the resultant "moat" of dry air around the storm. This dry air is thus not a product of actual dry air that will be infused into the storm, but storm-"created" dry air that should have little impact on its intensity.

In the short term, Ivan should continue to move WNW - roughly 295 degrees - then gradually turn NW and NNW over the course of the next 24-36 hours. On this path, it will come very close to the extreme western tip of Cuba; if we thought Charley took the path of least resistance over the island, Ivan may well redefine that notion. Hurricane warnings should go up for the western part of the island in the very near future, as the storm should pass over or very near to the tip sometime late tomorrow.

Unfortunately, this will probably be when the storm is at its peak intensity again...but fortunately, this will probably be the last time it reaches that intensity. The outflow channel provided by the upper-low in the Atlantic is gradually weakening as Ivan moves westward and the low retreats; furthermore, interactions with Cuba and eyewall replacement cycles should put an end to further intensification sometime late tomorrow, followed by perhaps a *slight* increase in shear having an impact at later times.

From there, forward motion should gradually begin to increase. Right now, Ivan is currently rounding the base of the ridge and entering somewhat of a "col" region of very weak steering currents. The current forward motion -- speed-wise -- will likely continue for another day to day and a half before the system gets caught up in the midlatitude steering flow. The shortwave over the S. Central US has dug a bit further south than expected and has additional support on the way from the Pacific Northwest. A slight bit further push to the south and east with this system is likely; I don't anticipate it weakening to any large degree nor retreating before the storm gets there. With this in mind, I feel confident that the Biloxi area is as far west as the storm gets. It's not inconceivable that it goes further west, I just view it as extremely unlikely.

After passing near the tip of Cuba through the Yucutan channel, the storm should roughly parallel the 85°W line before turning NNE or even NE as it approaches the coast. On this path, the Panama City to Apalachicola area (and points from Apalachicola to St. Marks on the NE-SW oriented coast) are most likely to be affected. The NHC forecast path is a bit further west than my thinking here at landfall (though the landfall locations are similar, I think a more pronounced turn late in the Gulf is more likely), as are the majority of models. Landfall in about 3 to 3 and a half days -- late Wednesday most likely -- is what I anticipate somewhere in the Panama City-Apalachicola area. I'm trending towards the eastern side of that swath, with a forecast point early Thursday about 35 mi. west of Tallahassee, but that is subject to change. Remember, even 3-3.5 days out, track errors are subject to large biases.

Intensity is going to be the big question. We saw Bonnie not do much in this general region as it approached the coast, but the synoptic conditions were quite a bit different then - not to mention the intensity and size of the storm - than they are now. Shear should increase in the Gulf, yes, but not by much. Waters are still warm, as no storm has touched these waters to any large degree this season (note that Bonnie was moving 15-20mph throughout this area and took place almost a month ago). The storm will weaken before landfall, but by how much? As it approaches shore is the time when much of the weakening will take place, so it is not inconceiveable to see many worried folk in the Fl. Panhandle fretting over a 140-150mph hurricane approaching the coast, as with Opal. The storm should not make landfall at that intensity, however, thanks to increasing interaction with the trough as well as shallower waters (resulting in less overall energy for the storm); an intensity of 120-135mph, category 3/4, is more likely.

Again though, everyone from Biloxi east to Cedar Key should be paying close attention to this storm. I don't believe that this is one for the peninsula in any way, though don't be surprised to see tropical storm force conditions approach the shore as the storm moves northward. On the projected path, hurricane watches will likely be issued along the northern Gulf coast late tomorrow or early Tuesday, with hurricane warnings coming early-midday Tuesday. Tropical storm watches will likely be issued for areas to the east along the Fl. west coast, mostly as a precautionary device in case the wind field -- currently extending out ~175mi -- impacts the coast. But, in any case, people along the northern Gulf coast need to take heed of this one -- it's not pulling hard right between the Keys and Cuba and then hard north between the Bahamas and Florida and missing land, nor is it going to pull a Roxanne from 1995 and sit and spin and die in the Gulf.

Pressed for a landfall point into a mythical landfall pool, I would say a bit east of Mexico Beach (alternatively, a bit west of Cape San Blas) as a 125-130mph cat 3 storm around midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

I'll try to add a bit more tomorrow and answer any questions I see, though it's going to be a rather busy day on my end.

However, despite this, it is still in everyone's best interests to take the word of the National Hurricane Center in times like this, noting the large uncertainty in the forecasted track and intensity of the storm as well as the fact that they are the professionals and have been doing this for many, many years.
--

ED's Thoughts on Ivan
Mike and Clark have pretty much covered the various possibilities regarding Ivan - but I'll add a few thoughts of my own. I also feel that Ivan will miss a western Cuba landfall and pass through the Yucatan Channel while still at Cat V (140kts). I think that the frontal system that entered the Pacific northwest a couple of days ago (as noted by Clark) will become more of a major player in the eventual course that Ivan takes. Steering currents in the southeast Gulf are very weak so I don't believe that Ivan will be in too much of a hurry to move northward - but I do expect a turn to the north.

At about 25 degrees, I think that Ivan will begin a more north northeasterly movement under the influence of the approaching front to the far northwest and the slow retreat of the Atlantic ridge. With this slow movement, I wouldn't be surprised to see landfall as late as Thursday mid-day - perhaps in the Suwannee area just north of Cedar Key. Intensity at landfall of 115kts (Cat III) with movement continuing to the north northeast - remaining over land and located in eastern North Carolina on Saturday as a 45-50 knot Tropical Storm (that's a long ride over land, but the path would be just inland from the Atlantic - and Ivan will take quite a long time to spin down). Be prepared for future track changes from NHC - with weak steering currents, defining Ivan's future track is not an easy task for anyone. I guess that I'm riding the eastern edge of Clark's cone, but everyone from Biloxi to Yankeetown needs to keep close tabs on Ivan's progress.

------

I have a big head when it comes to this stuff, so going to toss out my take as well. Trends are favoring Ed's approach to Ivan.. the storm has persistently gone slower, been behind schedule, and bucked the intensity forecasts mostly with eyewall fluctuations. Therefore my thinking is it will make more of a turn to the right in the Gulf, and come ashore early Thursday in the Big Bend. For now at least... further west will mean a much greater degree of coastal destruction.
In terms of intensity, Clark has the guiding factors outlined well already. The reduction in intensity that should result from moving into a slightly sheared environment, with shallower coastal waters, should come into play. Probably what will happen is that at some point the storm will stop recovering from eyewall replacement cycles.. and while remaining intense broaden, with a looser inner core. I'm expecting a landfall intensity of 110kt or so.. for now. It could easily spin down to a broad cat 2 system like Frances.. though unlikely it could still be a solid 4 when it hits also.
I'll move it around a couple of times probably between now and Wednesday, but for now here's my strike forecast:
Taylor County FL (Keaton Beach area), 110kt, 3 AM Thursday 9/16
-HF


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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures


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Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 12 2004 10:58 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

The only question now is how deep will he go? I know I've been calling ~900mb, but, it could happen.

Didn't think he'd get to CAT V this soon, but it had been predicted and shouldn't be a surprise.

He's going AROUND Cuba too. Holy S===!

I guess it's not too early to be contemplating the ramifications of a 160mph hurricane heading up the Bay of Mobile...


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:03 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I'm starting to think ~900mb is possible as well. We have a CAT 5 cane that looks far from perfect on IR, has just lost it's inner eye wall, and from the reports of lightning and hail showing signs of rapid intensification while it's already at ~917mb.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:05 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

my last post for tonight.... I don't think it is going to hit the west coast of cuba... looks like it heading towards the center of the yucatan channel..... good night all.... somebody is going to have a really bad week this week... hope its not me...

Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:07 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Didnt know we had a new thread posted, but Mike raises some very cogent points about inland Ivan...

The latest cone puts NoLa in play albeit on the western side, and to be honest that freaks me out. I do think a landfall between the PCB and Biloxi is my prediction, but I'm no meterologist, I just played one on TV.....

Secondly, the inland track puts TS Ivan right over the Gold Dome in Downtown Atlanta right at rush hour...Urgh!

I'll place a wager that the local mets will be comparing the flooding in Georgia from Ivan to the flooding from Hurricane Opal

Just also heard a report on WSB-TV and they said that at least 50% of the homes on Grand Cayman were damaged...


Pray for our neighbors to the south and for those who are in the bullseye in the track of Ivan....


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:15 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Thanks Mike for the repost...I seem to have a knack at catching things right before the new threads go up! In any case though, I do want to caution everyone to go with the experts -- the NHC -- when dealing with these storms. I posted what I've analyzed and what I forsee, but they are the experts here. The forecast uncertainty is rather large, even at 3-3.5 days, which means no one from Biloxi east to Cedar Key should let their guard down.

Had the chance to take a break from the storm this weekend to some degree, but the storm is still very much making its presence known here in Tallahassee. Went supply shopping yesterday at the local Target, where they are out of duct tape and had three flashlights left. So yes, I ended up with a Scooby-Doo flashlight...at least it works well! Water supplies are not out, but are running a little low. Ditto ice.

Many businesses are already starting to prepare by putting plywood over their windows. A local Sprint store boarded up today and spray painted "Even Ivan Needs A Cell Phone!" on their windows. A local Barnes & Noble store was boarded up yesterday, while a local T.J. Maxx store was boarded up this afternoon. People are genuinely getting prepared for this thing here, which is really good to see -- Tallahassee has not seen a storm like this in recorded history and is a very susceptible region to high winds and, in parts, flooding. A minimal hurricane would probably result in many, many downed trees and a loss of power throughout much of the city for a couple of days at the least. A category 3 hurricane -- I don't even want to think about it.

As part of the local AMS chapter, I was supposed to give a presentation to a local group of school children this week. However, the class has field trips scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday -- trips that, I imagine, will be canceled due to Ivan. FSU will likely only close if the state tells them to close, as they seem pretty confident about the ability of the campus to withstand a storm...and the ability of people to get to campus during a storm. Not the smartest of ideas, I don't believe, but the state knows better.

Numerous residents still have sandbags left over from Frances, sandbags that are likely getting reused for Ivan....a few people around my place are attesting to that as I type. I'm sure the frenzy will only pick up in the next day or two as the storm nears. I've got a few bags of ice, a bunch of water, and am hoping for the worst to spare us all...I just feel for who it will affect down the line.


St. David
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:16 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I think this is the best radar to follow the eye.


http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:18 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

For some reason I get this image of Ivan bouncing around the Carribbean like a self propelled huge pinball bouncing off the bumpers.. (Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Cuba?)

'shana


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:19 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

word around here is if ivan hits as a 4 or 5 electricity will be out for weeks not days.. looks like it is forecast to the west again. sorry frank but i hope this trend holds

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:19 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Just an observation, for what it's worth. The water vapor loop that I look at doesn't show anything south of Cuba. I've been using it to watch the trof building in over the northwest Gulf. Last night when I looked at it, just a small part of Ivan was visible at the bottom of the screen. I haven't looked at it for nearly 24 hours (was gone all day today) and I don't see anymore of Ivan tonight than I did last night. On the radio I kept hearing WNW movement, but he doesn't seem to have made much in the way of northerly progress today. Maybe it's just because he's still only moving 9mph.

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:21 PM
Ivan is now the official hurricane of the Who...

Pinball Wizard. Thanks...now I'm going to be humming that for the next two hours...which isn't a bad thing...I can actually play it on the Gee-tar.

Predicting Ivan is making predicting Frances look like a picnic...


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:23 PM
NHC Probability Chart Question...

Question from a frequent lurker....On the 9/12 10 pm NHC probability chart...other than the obvious and nearby locations where Ivan will strike, the next highest probabilty number is for "Gulf 28N 89W" which is virtually the mouth of the Mississippi River..........yet........the NHC is projecting landfall in the panhandle of Florida....even though their probabilty numbers are less.......anyone wanna try to explain?

Thanks......love the site !!!!


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:27 PM
Re: NHC Probability Chart Question...

Site's going to drop for about 5 - 10 minutes at 11:45 sharp while I fix something. Be back momentarily.

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:28 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Just listened to the weather chic on ABC. She used my favorite water vapor loop to sell this sucker going to NO. But, I see something different in the radar. There are three ridges. One in the Atlantic, one in the GOM and one over Texas/Louisiana. There is one trough, over the northern GOM. The met said the ridge in the GOM was what was steering Ivan WNW and preventing the northern turn. She said it was strong and would continue to delay that turn and it would end up going right to NO. (Well, she was more descriptive, but I forgot everything she said... which is why I like text reports). Anyway, it seems like the little ridge in the GOM is terribly weak and will soon go away. So, that should turn the storm. Also, the trough is now moving slightly east, as it has been moving slightly west last couple times I looked (like last nightish). What am I missing?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:31 PM
Re: NHC Probability Chart Question...

Mike do you ever sleep?

Actually whatever you're gonna do will probably help...been knocked off a bunch of times..only for a few minutes...but it's been munching my PMs.

Everybody hang tight...let Mike work his majiK!


dani
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:32 PM
Pensacola Area

Well I just went to the local website for pensacola and they're making a decision at 8am tomorrow regarding the hurricane and have told people to make the necessary preparations for evacuations and are setting up a consumer information line. Seems escambia and santa rosa aren't taking any chances with this storm. Oh and Gulf power is predicting people would be without power for a minimum of 3 weeks if a cat 3 hurricane landed in that vicinity. Not a pleasant thought.

dani


Ormond Suzie
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:35 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Clark said: "A local Barnes & Noble store was boarded up yesterday..." I was amused this afternoon to see our local Daytona Beach Barnes & Noble just finishing putting up their plywood. Gee, what does B&N management know about Ivan's track that the mets don't? LOL

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:36 PM
Re: Pensacola Area

(inappropriate post deleted)
ED


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:36 PM
Re: NHC Probability Chart Question...

bay county is waiting till tomorrow before deciding if evacuations will be issued Tyndall air force base is flying the jets out tomorrow. tomorrow will hell here with finall preps. Jason.. great job on the forecast

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:39 PM
Hey Coop, JK & Andy1Tom

Cantore's broadcasting in your backyard...you should go down there and hold up a CFHC rules! sign or something...only kidding.

This will severely test the oft-tested rule that Cantore always broadcasts from where the storm is going versus the Cantore always keeps the storm away from where he's going theory.

All I know is there is a CAT V, about to circumvent Cuba, perhaps pushing a sub 900mb pressure, a-brewing. TWC sez FL panhandle, most models say so too...I'm gonna break with my crowbusting forecast again and say...not florida anymore...sorry rick & frank and shawn (and all you others).

I hope I'm wrong...but it does have to go somewhere...

Mobile Bay? I'm not wishcasting that by any means, but damn, rick, it's really not very funny anymore is it?


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:40 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Thanks Clark for your excellent thorough discussion! Going to be an interesting week! I agree with "rules" from last night waiting for Ivan to move through the Yucatan channel - looks like reality in 24 hours.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:41 PM
Re: NHC Probability Chart Question...

Real quick before Mike pulls the plug.
Pull the plug on the pinball machine.
NHC directions are averaged over a period of time.
Satellites are going off line in about 20 minutes til 230am EDT
Mouth of the Mississippi is probably within 65nm of the western most track point IF he goes west and recurves.
Thanks Mike


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:42 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Geraldo had JB on, and he's calling for a MS/AL landfall. Meanwhile, the NHC keeps saying that they are keeping their forecast track to the east of the guidance models.
The BAMM model (as mentioned in the last thread) has it making a sharp right hand turn into Florida. Not sure if I buy that one at all. Time will tell. We're getting into a period where we've been tracking this thing for almost an entire week and we don't know anymore than we did a week ago.
I heard Warren Madden talking to Geraldo and he said that they saw/encountered winds at 180-200mph at the SURFACE , plus hail and lightning. EEK. This is an unbelievable storm.
At this point, I think you could put up a map of the entire GOM region, throw a dart and have a 50/50 chance of being right.

The other thing that really grabbed my attention was this, which is from the 11pm advisory:

Quote:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.




They are now saying that this storm is almost as large as Frances. I'm not saying this will happen, but if things break down and the ridge actually DOES begin to push this thing to the north and the track is 100 miles offshore of Tampa Bay, we're in for a world of hurt.
Wouldn't it be the strangest thing if I had to call my Mom and tell her to evacuate down here? At this point, it wouldn't surprise me.


kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 12 2004 11:45 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Jeff,
How much do you want to bet that they close all of the schools in the metro area and outward. People will not go into work. It's like a snow day in September. Not to mention there won't be any bread, milk, or eggs left......LOL


dani
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:08 AM
Re: Pensacola Area

so i was confused...Cantorre tends to be where the hurricanes hit or has the canny luck of missing the storm?

thanks,
dani


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:11 AM
Re: Pensacola Area

HMMM, I believe Phil said No Wishcasting allowed.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:13 AM
Site Fix

It's done, it won't blow up until tomorrow hopefully.

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:16 AM
Re: Site Fix

I'm kinda getting sick of saying thanks Mike...Maybe I'll just make it my "signature." You rock...das all.

BTW...SC just made his first edit...Way to go Coop!

Actually, turns out it was ED Someone somewhere put up a really obnoxious post...we need a creamer...only kidding...DONT DO THAT....

You guys have been fan f----in tastic this year. Makes my job (if you can call it that--more like a labor of love) a piece of cake. I do requre some sleep however...

Saying prayers before going to bed...Dear Lord...please spare the entire gulf coast any bad trappings from Ivan...she won't heed my pleas, but I gotta try, no?

This mother is going to try men's souls...mark my words...


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:24 AM
Re: Site Fix

Looks like it made a good difference. Or some of the loading has been shed. Thanks again Mike-Nap time!

Latest (hour Old) fix has pressure at 919mb and eye at 32nm closed wall. There seems to be a problem with the NHC data feeds I'm using. Anyone else having problems?


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:27 AM
Re: Site Fix

Mike, you're doing a great job with the site...thanx again. Your comment "Hopefully it won't blow up until tomorrow" just cracked me up and gave me the giggles.

I'm hurricaned out.......


Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:31 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

The timing of the worst part of the storm to hit Atlanta will be rush-hour....I would bet a dollar to a donut that no one in Northern Georgia will go to school on Thursday or Friday, and the Home Depot's and Lowe's will all have a run on them by Wednesday night....And don't even get me started on the effect this storm coming over Atlanta is gonna have on air travel nationwide......

Of course if the power poops out in Downtown like it did last week, we won't have the GEMA web site to refer to, but what else is new in the home of the great Zig-zag...lol


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:33 AM
Re: Site Fix

One last thing I've been staring at tonight and looking at recon reports. I have a feeling Ivan's (for lack of a better term) violently trying to form a new large eye, maybe like 30-60 miles across. Major updrafts and such while he does it, it's very weird. It's doing so as a Category 5 storm, and the lightning and hail. It'll be interesting to see what we wake up to. I'd bet a larger system with a huge eye.

- Mike


Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:34 AM
Re: Site Fix

I'm guessing that would be a very bad thing, no?

Just wondering because I always thought that the larger the eye got the less strong a storm was, but then again I'm not a meterologist, I just played on on TV....


kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:35 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I was in 7th or 8th grade when Andrew hit Miami. Granted, I lived in Vero, but it still got nasty there. Anyway, Andrew came in at night and we were in school the next day. They never closed school for hurricanes then.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:36 AM
Re: Pensacola Area

Well, for now the track hasn't changed much; the motion is still to the WNW and it *appears* that Tampa Bay *may* be spared a 3rd hit. However, it's still 3/5-365 days out as far as I can tell, so I'm not letting my guard down. That being said, me staying up until 4:30am is not helping my nerves nor is it changing Ivan's track, so I might as well just get some sleep and see where it's at in the morning.

That being said, I will say prayers for all the people in the path of this storm...from Cuba to N.O. and east. I hate even thinking about this thing hitting ANYONE as a Cat 5. I know it has to hit somewhere at sometime, but I don't know where. The only thing I can say is that I surely hope it's not a Cat 5 no matter WHERE it hits.
See ya in the morning...


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:40 AM
Re: Site Fix

Mike,

Don't know about you...I'm only staring at computer feeds here...you must truly be exhausted...

Let's ALL go to bed (except for Danny...little bastid is at work-I believe-sorry if you're not Dan)

I'm certainly no met (gee, couldn't y'all tell). But I bet this sumbeatch is ~900 at 8:00 am.

And...he's redrawing all the rules too.

A'ight [tm HF...where is he BTW].

Will monitor for a few more but it's up to all y'all as far as posting...


kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM
Re: Site Fix

well, i guess it's just you and me, Jeff........
My husband left a few hours ago for PCB to board up the beach house. I'm bored............can't sleep..............


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM
Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

Today marks the 25th anniv. of Hurricane Frederick....I live in Mobile and have watched Rick post after post saying Mobile will be a Cat 5. Looks like his wish might come true or close to a cat 5. I haven't seen a post from Rick in awhile.....I'm just wondering if Rick is satisfied now?

Southern4sure


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM
Re: Site Fix

Yes, Mike...it'll be interesting to see what we wake up to in the morning. I'm not even sure I want to turn on the TV. As large as thing is growing, we may very well see impacts from LA to West Central Florida.
My heart skips a couple of beats thinking about what it might do inland, not just here, but all along the eastern part of the US. I don't know how well people are prepared for something like this. It's a little unnerving to say the least.
The other day I was scoffing at the guy with the Dyna-Gel. Now I'm hoping he DOES IT.

I just wish the heck he would do whatever he was gonna do and DO IT ALREADY!


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 AM
Re: Site Fix

I resemble that remark. Where is HF anyway, haven't seen his sig. in a while.
I'll keep an eye on Ivan's eye while you two shut your eyes.
Got more eyes in that sentence than a potatoe.
I thought everyone had gone to bed Kelly and Jeff. Sorry about that.


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:46 AM
Re: Site Fix

Ah Col,

Didja have to mention that? LOL. Agreed.

Boy that sure was a short flight huh?


javlin
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:47 AM
Re: well dan?

It looks like Ivan will miss Cuba on the current track.I figure with a N jog some because he does not like land that much at roughly 88' W 22'N in 30hrs.The question remains when does the infamous turn begin.If Ivan makes 89' or 90' we might just get a visit from an unwanted visitor.CMC way out there now all the way to 92' W if that happens say hello N.O.

kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:47 AM
Re: Site Fix

sure thing, baby doll.

kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:53 AM
Re: Site Fix

does anyone have TWC on now? Who is this guy?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:54 AM
Re: TWC

The night guy. Dave Schwartz. You can actually learn from him. He's a pretty good teacher.

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:54 AM
Re: Site Fix

Dudes & Dudettes...

This should be proof positive that lunatics like me cannot log off until we fall off our computer chairs...

BTW, I do like Dave Schwartz, but sometimes I want to smack his sorry ass....btw, we dont care about the possible mexican ts storm...no offense...


kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:57 AM
Re: Site Fix

I don't mean to be rude, but he's kind of a jackass. No offence to anyone..................
It's deffinately going to hit the US?
There's no chance of it dissipating?

I wasn't aware he's god. And to think that I've been going to mass for nothing all of these years.


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:00 AM
Re: Site Fix

Whoa, bettye....

You can call me (P)al but you cannot dis the schwarrtz....


He's actually very good...give him a chance...you know who sucks? Lemke, that's who....

Donno why many here think she's the bomb but she's NOT ALL THAT.

Ed...feel free to re-mod me down for this one, but that's how I feel!

And who doesn't like Miss Abrahams...????


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:02 AM
Re: Site Fix

Jeffmidtown -- I'll take offense to that "UVa rules the ACC" comment!

In response to your question, the eye size does not generally determine how strong a storm is...or, to better put it, while many powerful storms may have small eyes and many weaker storms may have larger eyes, the correlation is not very strong.

Many very strong storms can have very large eyes. Isabel and Frances are two such examples. Storms with larger eyes tend to be more stable intensity-wise, while storms with smaller eyes tend to be more unstable intensity-wise as a function of eyewall replacement cycles (the eye is less stable, meaning cycles are more likely).

There may also be some correlation between when a storm goes through many eye cycles, resulting in a large eye, that it is at its peak intensity and will not get stronger, but I'm not sure how strong that is (if at all); it is more my observations than anything else. Large eyes also tend to happen with larger overall storms, but again that is more my observation than anything else.


HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:13 AM
Re: Site Fix

missisippi dan asked where i've been.. the short answer is college football. yeah, i'm a nole fan, and a carolina fan, and i have nothing to celebrate. uga dawgs and that dratted miami and their ruination of field goals has cost me a bit of abuse from my clemson-alumni friends (though they got theirs last night). ivan is nothing to celebrate either.
abrams.. remember her from a couple of classes. didn't know her, but i'm sure clark does. i'm actually sort of bored with twc. nothing against any of the forecasters. can get so much more useful information via internet. but back in the good ol' days (late 80s-mid 90s) twc was the way to go.
yeah what phil said.. ed, you can use the chainsaw on me. hey, maybe coop feels up to it?
anyhow, wanted to add that i'm real REAL low confidence right now on my big bend ideas. it reasons best with me, as i'm trying to stay ahead of the model trends (don't believe this is a louisiana storm).. it's not even really the course of least regret. that would be the panhandle as a cat 4.. and i don't like that prospect.
okay, gotta get some rest. i'm sure ivan will truncate my workweek later on, but until then it's up with the sun.
HF 0512z13september


kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:14 AM
Re: Site Fix

ok, ya'll.........it's official..................I can't see straight anymore. Got to sleep now.
Phil, I agree with you.....I think Ivan will drop to 900mb overnite too.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:20 AM
Re: Recon

I guess they fixed part of the problem. I just got the Supp Vortex from 0217Z Three hour delay.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:23 AM
Re: Site Fix

HF, I thought Miami was after me again when I saw Ken Dorsey start to lead the 49ers down the field against my beloved Falcons -- if it's not versus FSU, it's in the pros versus the Falcons! Alas, he got knocked out again and the Falcons won, so at least I can claim one victory. It just hasn't been a good three days -- yet alone month and a half -- in terms of all sorts of hurricanes.

Yeah, I know Stephanie through a few means. Can't see this as a LA storm either, but stranger things have happened. Current NHC path says Ft. Walton...think that might be a wee bit too far west. A sooner turn north and NNE is more likely, I think.

I dunno if you all saw the article on the guy in S. Florida who wanted to rent a 747 and fly into the NW part of the storm and dump his water-absorbing junk into the system, but I sure hope he hasn't been able to do so. He said that he thought it'd result in more shear over the storm...a statement like that only further proves why you don't listen to people like him, as he doesn't have any idea what he's talking about. And the potential ecological disaster - yeah, really smart.

In any case, we're about 3 days from a major landfalling system in the U.S....let's all get some rest and get prepared for when it comes. We're going to need it, I'm afraid.


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:30 AM
Re: Site Fix

Quote:

There may also be some correlation between when a storm goes through many eye cycles, resulting in a large eye, that it is at its peak intensity and will not get stronger, but I'm not sure how strong that is (if at all); it is more my observations than anything else. Large eyes also tend to happen with larger overall storms, but again that is more my observation than anything else.


Clark, I remember learning the same thing - the large eye suggests Ivan is at a "mature" stage (it's getting pretty old for most of us anyways). That would fit in with the expansion of the wind field. Not going to go away anytime soon, but it's not going anywhere fast right now.
I still can't see Ivan moving north of Cuba's latitude (22.5) until 24 hrs from now, and that would be thru the channel, very near 22 N 86 W. I suspect some of the latest model initializations may have Ivan too far east, due to lack of met data.
Gradual acceleration northward is critical to future landfall - I expect there will be much better model consensus developing by Tues. AM with Ivan still at least 36 hrs away from any U.S. landfall at that point in time.


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:35 AM
Re: Site Fix

11pm map . Let me know what you think ?


http://www.hardcoreweather.com/yes.jpg


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:40 AM
Re: Ivan

I did a little rough measuring of Ivan while ago. He is roughly 10degrees square. 6 degrees of storm to the north, and 4 to the south.
The northern Gulf Coast will be seeing his outflow/ feeder bands before the eye clears 24.0 N at most anywhere in the Gulf.


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:45 AM
Re: Site Fix

Good idea ... could be a very useful graphic 24-36 hrs out.
personally, I don't like the map zoomed in so close ... guess that's why it looks a little too mechanical. (just my opinion)


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:50 AM
Re: Ivan

Quote:

I did a little rough measuring of Ivan while ago. He is roughly 10degrees square. 6 degrees of storm to the north, and 4 to the south.
The northern Gulf Coast will be seeing his outflow/ feeder bands before the eye clears 24.0 N at most anywhere in the Gulf.


It's definitely a big storm ... Cozumel had a feeder band move through earlier on Sunday with TS wind gusts.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:52 AM
Re: Ivan

Hard time sleeping, dreaming of hanging about 18 sheets of plywood.... or was I counting plywood in lieu of sheep... Had to take a quick glance at the board for an update as I let my two bassets out for a little evening break....

Dan's our late night hawk watching this thing....good job.... reading the board tells me everthing I need to know... what great input and thoughs by all

Boy, my Mobile and 25 miles to the east guesscast last Monday on Storm2K is looking like a pretty good pick right now.... wonder where cat5 rick has been.... we all tease him but I know, as we all know, rick just being a little silly with that, and he wants no part of this monster....

time to go back to bed, maybe I'll dream about shinges now, and perhaps counts them.... blowing off my roof along with my plywood if this thing hits here.... I still like Mobile and/or a little east..... and I'm keeping my fingers crossed....


Second Shift
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:53 AM
Re: Site Fix

What was up with CBS running the movie "The Perfect Storm"
tonight? About as much class as running "The Towering Inferno" Saturday night!! I still have a question from yesterday-does the Atlantic High or the troughs to the west
have more influence on Ivan's path? Thanks!


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:02 AM
Re: Latest Recon

The 0503Z vortex fix. Pressure 920mb, 35nm eye;winds146kts-NE quad.=flt level wind of 168.1mph, and surface wind of 151.3mph

Actually a met could probably answer that better. But I think they have left for the night. The ATLC high pressure ridge is keeping Ivan from making the turn northward. The trough (trof) is acting as a minor roadblock right now, but should turn into a rail for Ivan to ride along, or a deflector to limit his westward motion. Frank, you may be better at this one.


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:07 AM
Re: Site Fix

At this point, Ivan is at an intersection between influences from the ridge and trofs to the north. Generally, tropical cyclones are steered by the ridges south of 20 N, then as they drift north of 20 N, they encounter more trofs and sheer causing them to accelerate northward and eventually transition to extra-tropical systems. Ivan is still under more of an easterly flow regime right now, but it looks like that will be changing over the next 2 days.
Continued westward movement to the northern tip of the Yucatan isn't out of the question however. Surface pressures still remain relatively high at Havana and Key West compared to Cozumel and Cancun.


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:09 AM
Re: Latest Recon

scott,

I had it Moss Point to Seaside from early last week.
------------------------------------------
Not too often that I disagree with Clark, Mike and Ed on a storm. Latest NHC track is probably about right if not 50-100 miles too far east. I think the bullseye is on the MS/AL coasts, and where the storm goes in (thinking it will be moving NNE at landfall) and 150 miles eastward face the greatest threat. The storm won't be so bad for areas west of landfall as the advancing front should should provide enough of a SW flow to knock out whatever gets cooking when the steering currents relax in the 24-48 hour time period.

Steve


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:24 AM
Re: Latest Recon

From the 11pm discussion.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
In theory. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Forward movement of 15mph, would give a person in the center of the path 6-12 hours of 65mph or better winds.
And 13-26 hours of 35mph winds or better.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:34 AM
Re: Site Fix

Well, the simple answer to your question is: yes. But that doesn't really say a whole lot.

Early on, the high has more influence. Once the storm reaches the midlatitudes -- or a trough reaches into the tropics, whether the trough actually reaches the tropics or just erodes part of the ridge in the tropics -- the trough patterns tend to take over, leading to a more northward component of motion. Of course, there isn't always a trough to impact a storm's motion...but more often than not, there is.

To date, Ivan has been steered by the ridge. Right now, it is rounding the base of that ridge and should soon begin the feel the effects of the trough. In essence, in time, the ridge and trough will "combine" to form a channel for Ivan to follow to the north -- and either north-northwest or north-northeast, depending on the sharpness of the trough.

And that will be critical for the final landfall of the storm. North-northwest (~340ish degrees) will take it towards MS/AL. North-northeast (~020 degrees) will take it towards the central FL panhandle.

For effect, let's take a 20 degree difference averaged out from the T+48 hour position, 22.3 N and 85 W. The Gulf coast is roughly at 30 N. Assuming a due north motion, it is 855 or so km to the coast. A 20 degree shift to the left or right results in a 311km -- just under 200mi -- difference in landfall position. If you center this over a landfall point of Ft. Walton Beach from the 11pm NHC advisory, you could see a landfall anywhere from near Mobile, AL to Panacea, FL along the coast. This serves to highlight how crucial the timing and sharpness of the trough that will ultimately pick up Ivan is to the ultimate landfall position...as well as shows how difficult track forecasting can be, despite very precise measurements of the track.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:36 AM
Re: Latest Recon

Technically, if you assume a radially symmetric (circular) storm and no weakening of the wind field as it goes over land, if you take a direct hit of the storm at the current forward speed (9 mph), you would experience hurricane force winds for 20 hours and tropical storm force winds for a whopping ~44.5 hours. Increase the forward speed to about 18, however, and you can halve both of those times. Thankfully though, the storm is not radially symmetric -- there are breaks in the wind field and it is not entirely circular -- and there will be some weakening of the wind field in all quadrants after landfall, even if part of the storm is still over water.

Second Shift
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:43 AM
Re: Site Fix

Thanks to all of you guys for the explanation. I had 10 hours of met at the University of Kansas back in the dark ages, but
I realize that doesn't qualify me to be one LOL


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:45 AM
Re: Latest Recon

Thanks. Just a hypothetical question in respect to the length of time it would take for the wind to spin up, peak and wind down, over a point. As there is no "perfect storm" I understand the symmetry of the windfields. I found graphics for the question at Skeetobite. Even though they are old tracks.
Had I known Clark, Jason and some of the others were still here, I wouldn't have attempted to answer. They will always be more qualified for those questions.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:55 AM
Re: Latest Recon

No problem -- and truth be told, I thought I was going to bed over an hour ago!

I won't be around much of Monday, so I'll defer to the other mets & hobbiests on the board for the day. I'll be following the storm, however. Should be an interesting day...hopefully we'll know more tomorrow night, but I'm starting to sound like a broken record with those sorts of comments.


Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 05:23 AM
Northerly Component?

I know that wobble-watching can grow tiresome. But given my proximity to the forecast track, I'm watching every jog with the intensity of the media covering a scandalous celebrity trial.

The last few frames (thru 815 UTC) on the IR loop "seem" to be indicating a more northerly component...at least relative to what I've been observing over the past couple of days. I concede my amateur status, so I suppose this could be some sort of optical illusion created by the inner workings of the storm.

Thoughts???

Looks like there is less N movement than I "thought" I saw, but more than there has been. Visuals perhaps exagerrated by the ERC process?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 05:26 AM
Re: Latest Recon

The 5:00 am update is out... and it's time to face the facts! I've read everone's predictions with great interest. But those that still think this thing is going to make landfall along Florida's west coast (Cedar Key??) just aren't seeing the obvious... Ivan has persisted to skew west of all predictions by the NHC as well as posters here. The latest forecaster admits that they would have adjusted the latest track even further westward, were it not for previous models.

Once in the GOM the steering currents will be even weaker, giving less reason to expect a dramatic shift in the course... let alone a 100+ degree turn to the right to get back to FL west coast. I just don't see it... Mobile, Biloxi even New Orleans are now in harms way.


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 05:35 AM
Re: Latest Recon

well, for us in the Tampa Bay area, the new data suggests good news. However, I still worry that Ivan may come to a crawl in the GOM and make a sharp hook to the right under that ridge. I don't think Florida is out of it just yet (I am not a weather guru - just a hobbiest stating an opinion).

Opinions?


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 05:38 AM
Re: Latest Recon

There is a high over Texas that is likely to block a westerward movement and if no steering currents are available, Ivan has already been shown to avoid even tiny land masses, let alone massive air pressure. So the truth is that Ivan is going to find the hole in the wall to get through. This is why he has taken so long to get North of 20. As for making a turn, hurricanes do it all the time. They are like bumper cars at a carnival, one minute they are going forward the next minute they are turning or backing up. The outflow and inflow are one and the same. Of course it is easy to say that it is pointed in the direction of the Panhandle, unless your parents live there and are senior citizens with your father dependent on oxygen. But I am going to be honest here folks, I am officially wishcasting this thing my way so that my parents in the panhandle do not have to deal with this.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 05:49 AM
Re: New Orleans NWS discussion

Don't let your guard down. This is just a discussion. NOT a forecast!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
300 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004
...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE PATH OF IVAN THIS MORNING BUT HAVE A GENERAL CONCENSUS TO BRING IT TOWARD THE WESTERN FLA PAN AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NOGAPS...ETA...CANADIAN...GFDL AND BAMD BRING THIS THING FARTHER WEST INTO THE NEW OREANS AREA. PROBLEM WITH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS IS THE CURRENT GENERAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE GENERAL FLOW IS STILL WNW OUTSIDE THE ENVELOPE OF IVAN.
THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPOSED TO PICK IVAN UP IS NOT BRINGING THIS FLOW MORE NORTH ATTM. IF THE TROUGH DOES NOT PICK THE HURRICANE UP...IT MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING TREND OVER TIME. ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE CONUS WED AND WILL DIG TOWARD THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF IVAN DOES NOT FEEL THE PULL FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IT MAY SIT OVER THE GULF WITH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BEFORE EVENTUALLY FEELING THE NEXT TROUGH'S PULL. THIS IS POSSIBLE BUT ACCORDING TO TPC'S FORECAST NOT PROBABLE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MORE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN IVAN'S TRACK BEFORE FEELING MORE COMFORTABLE.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 05:57 AM
Re: Latest Recon

Guppie.. we all expect a turn. My point is merely that if the current trend continues it will be further west than predicted, as will eventual landfall... by 50 to 80 nm if Ivan continues to fool the NHC as it has done so far.

Just look at the 0500 EST position, which is already 15.6 miles SW of its anticipated location which was just predicted on the 2300 EST update...

Continously further west than the models, a lot of stored energy and inertia headed WNW, and no significant steering currents to alter its course... New Orleans had better be watching!


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 05:59 AM
Ivan course appears NW now!

13 Sep - 1000Z - Your observation is correct; Ivan is now moving NW. I read the NHC discussion issued at 09Z and please note the forecaster was prepared to make the track more west than continuity would allow; that said, the current shear over the Gulf coast is quite impressive; 70 knots over Central Alabama, and forecasted to remain above the criteria necessary to sustain a Category 4/5 hurricane. If this is indeed the beginning of the long expected right turn, it is doubtful that Ivan will track to the La. coast. I suspect the NHC boys have this advisory thought out and is correct for gradual weakening; assuming the shear persists as currently forecasts by SHIP model. There will be some impact by the current shortwave traversing through the Gulf coast states today, but the next one now over the inter-mountain area of the US is expected to be what pulls Ivan north and northeast in the 72 hour forecast period; perhaps sooner. It has to be said, that model guidance is very suspect beyond 72 hours, and with every advisory, course correction has been made westward. I doubt beyond the 11 am advisory there will be anymore westward adjustment.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 06:12 AM
Re: Latest Recon

Please don't take my emotional ramblings to heart. I am just a worried daughter, who would much rather worry about myself, since I am a capable human being, rather than worry about my parents who are aging and becoming like children who are depending on the weather channel to keep them safe. I will now be quiet unless I can think of something constructive to say.

tikibar
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 06:13 AM
Re: Latest Recon

I think the turn will start coming soon (12-24hrs)
I base that on the flattening of the front of the storm.

Disclaimer:
Not a met. Never said I was.
professional rookie on a closed course! Individual results may vary.


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 06:13 AM
Re: Site Fix

In intense storms greater than Category 3 it is normal for storms to undergo a concentric eyewall replacement. The outer eyewall robs moisture and heat from the inner eye wall which results in an increase in pressure and drop in winds; this process normally takes between 6 and 12 hours, upon completion the eye is bigger; but begins to contract and as it does so, the storm re-intensifies by using the theory referred to as the Conservation of Angular Momentum; like the water down a drain, as the circulation tightens, the particles - air and water increase in speed until two other forces act upon it as well - centripetal and centrifugal which all lead to the formation of the eye. In intense storms it is possible to have multiple eye walls. Hall and lightning are not as uncommon as you may think; remembering how tall these cells are at very, very cold temperatures in excess of negative 85. There is no known way to forecast intensity changes nor the predicatability of eyewall replacements with what is known today.

berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 06:20 AM
Re: NHC Probability Chart Question...

It is standard procedure to make an effort to follow continuity in forecasting future plots of hurricanes; though I disagree with the tactic. Models have been off on this storm several days and with each passage push the track west. You read like the current advisory 13/10Z - Track guidance ( a number of hurricane models predicting coordinates) never agree with each other from run to run except within 72 hours of landfall. That guidance normally allows the NHC to take the track right down the middle. When you don't see the change, you'll here the NHC say right of guidance or left... That's continuity. You don't want forecasters saying Key West get ready, and suddenly on the next run - Mobile, AL instead. They do so very gradually in the case of a sudden course change and simply common sense!

Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 06:33 AM
Re: NHC Probability Chart Question...

With the newest forecast and discussion in from the NHC and watching the runs from UK and NOGAPS, I have to think that if they don't start some evacuation and soon in New Orleans, there will be 48 hours of, in lack of a better term, sheer panic. New Orleans is a ery large city with a couple of ways out, either east into the Florida panhandle, west into Houston or north over Lake Ponchatrain, and that route closes when winds get too high....

I hate to say this, but I would rather have a Yucatan landfall or a panhandle landfall than have NoLa take a direct hit....I remember seeing something either on one of the networks or CNN about what would happen if NoLa took a direct hit and it wasn't very pretty.

I guess the clock is ticking, predicted landfall anywhere anywhere in the US is around 2am Thursday morning......

Sorry to sound so alarmist, but unless a turn happens soon, and I mean within the next 24-36 hours, then the fecal matter will hit the rotating cooling device....


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 06:34 AM
Monroe County, FL Evacuation Discontinued!!!

Monroe County Emergency Management

Public Safety Announcement

Emergency Information Hotline 800-955-5504

(305) 289-6018

(305) 289-6333 fax



National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

National Weather Service Key West: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/eyw/



Monday, September 13, 2004 - 5:00 a.m.

Florida Keys emergency management officials discontinued all evacuation orders associated with Hurricane Ivan early Monday and said residents who left the Keys due to the threat from the storm could return immediately. At the same time, tourism officials chose Thursday, Sept. 16, as the suggested date that visitors should being returning to the Keys. The decision to permit residents back was made after the latest forecast tracks provided confidence that Ivan's dangerous core should remain well west of the Keys. A tropical storm watch for the Seven Mile Bridge through the Dry Tortugas National Park including Big Pine Key and Key West issued Sunday is likely to be discontinued at 11 a.m. Monday. However, the National Weather Service Key West office cautioned motorists to be mindful of some of the storm's outer spiral bands that might pass over the Middle and Lower Keys later Monday, bringing sporadic periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Officials urged evacuees to exercise the same patience in returning to the Keys as they did in leaving. Deputies are actively patrolling all residential and business areas and traffic enforcement officers will be patrolling highways to help ensure a safe return for all residents.

Returning residents are encouraged to fill up vehicle fuel tanks prior to entering the Keys as some gas stations report limited supplies. A few days are needed before fuel levels in the Keys return to normal.

Monroe County schools and offices are scheduled to be closed until Wednesday.

Keys tourism officials asked visitors to delay their vacation plans until Thursday to provide ample time for the tourism infrastructure to return to normal.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:02 AM
Re: Monroe County, FL Evacuation Discontinued!!!

I just did the math and there was .2N and.2W between advisories. I think it has begun.

Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:07 AM
Northerly Component?

The more northerly component I thought I saw early this morning...well...I still think I see it. Not dramatic mind you...just more than there has been in recent days. Time will tell.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:10 AM
Re: Monroe County, FL Evacuation Discontinued!!!

Using this IR loop overall trend looks to be around 300 degrees, NW is 315 degrees... concentrate on the inner eye wall and not the eye per se as its wobbling all over the place.. set on fast motion

we'll have a real good idea on direction as it goes thru the yucatan... at its present location if it clips the NW tip of Cuba, then its going more around 315 degrees (+/- 5), if it stays in the center of the yucatan, closer to WNW and 290 - 300 degrees, clips the NE yucatan, 280-290 degrees... best guess at the moment

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:22 AM
Attachment
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

Oh Chit !! THIS is NOT what I wanted to wake up and hear this morning !! Thank goodness I made hubby go get plywood yesterday..........everything else I have. Now the question is stay or go. I was young and stupid when I stayed for Frederic; older and wiser now !

Rick ??? I hope you are NOT still on your boat ! Mine is safely put up in a warehouse -- I hope.

PLEASE let this site stay up !!! I am a basket case already, and this is the only site that I rely on to get the most up to date info.

As for predictions, I think I mentioned a few days ago that my Mom was coming for a "visit".............. see attachment


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:34 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

Can someone give a synopsis of Joe B's comments this morning. He stated last night on Fox news the he predicted between Mouth of Miss and Pensacola with an intensity that rivaled but did not exceed Camille.

Thankfully, I beleive he is overdoing the intensity, but i beleive he is dead on for track. Does appear Ivan is moving more NW now, but that could be a wobble. He appears to be right on the NCH forecast for now. Again, that could change.

All that said, I still wouldn't rule out a FL hit just north of Tampa. With the speed he is moving, he may still be very far south when the NE turn occurs.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:38 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_east.html
Remind me again why Tampa is out of the woods?


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:40 AM
Predictions...

I know someone has mentioned this comment before, but I really want to emphasize how much this bothers me as a scientist. In Lawrence's 5 am discussion, he said:
"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 N MI LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72 HOURS AND IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS. IF I DID NOT HAVE A PREVIOUS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH...I WOULD HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT. MEANWHILE...SINCE THE MOTION IS STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD..."

Great, they've shifted left.... I think that's prudent. However, to say that you would have shifted more, but you wanted to be more consistent with the guidance bothers me. If the current data projects a particular path, that's the path you need to take. If I am analyzing snow samples for HCHO and then are all very close to each other and then I get one that is a little off.... I cannot say, we'll all the other ones say this, so I am going to interpret this data to be in line with the previous data.

I really appreciate and respect the hard work of the NHC, but that comment should not have been made.


teach1st
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:47 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:

The system has not made a distinct northerly turn yet, it may clip the extreme western edge of Cuba, but with the "land avoidance" trait that Ivan has had (except for Grenada) I wouldn't be surprised if it were to go through the straits.




What mechanism would create or make a storm have a "land avoidance?"

Thanks for any replies. And thanks for this board. I'm in the Tampa Bay area and my parents are in the Panhandle, so this board is providing me with tons of relevant information. I appreciate it!


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:50 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

Guppie Grouper,

Enjoy your Monday. Start doing normal things again.
This is not Central Florida's storm anymore.


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:51 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

This is no time for alarmist predictions, or premature calls for evacuation. If people want to leave, let them leave. Too many excited, panic-filled voices on radio and TV (and on this board) will lead to the same embarassing, irrational behavior we witnessed in Florida.
Instead its time for people to make rational, educated decisions. Help answer questions and do not panic.
Ivan hasn't even cleared the Yucatan channel yet, but it definitely looks like its making the NW turn, AND although the guidance suggests a weaker storm in the long run, intensity is one of the hardest things to forecast this far in advance.


Ronn
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 08:52 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

Quote:

All that said, I still wouldn't rule out a FL hit just north of Tampa. With the speed he is moving, he may still be very far south when the NE turn occurs.




If Ivan slows down to a crawl or stalls, this is a distinct possibility. Do I think this will happen? No. But, it remains a possibility. Unbelievably, people are now returning plywood to the stores here in the Tampa Bay area after the mad rush over the weekend. What if Ivan unexpectedly turns NE farther south than currently forecasted? And what about the next threat?

God Bless,
Ronn


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:02 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:

What mechanism would create or make a storm have a "land avoidance?"


"Land avoidance" caused by topography, sheer, trofs, ridges, etc. is usually on a smaller scale undiscernable by the models, etc.
When it comes right down to it, the absolutely best "mechanism" I've witnessed in terms of "land avoidance" is prayer. No one forecasted Ivan to take the track it has taken, much less explain the little turns and twists that have kept it over water this long.


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:04 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

Agree, I don't think it will happen, but it is possible. Those people are crazy for returning the plywood.

Accuweather has Ivan forecast to make landfall on the MS/AL border as a cat 4 Thursday early AM.


tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:06 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

Quote:

This is not Central Florida's storm anymore.




I don't anyone should say that yet. Ivan is most certainly not past us yet, and so far he has defied all the forecasts. The mets in our area are still urging caution. And several mets on this board are learning towards a landfall further towards the east. While they are not saying landfall in Tampa, it would bring the eastern side of the storm to the central Florida area.

I guess I'm just amazed that after Charley anyone thinks an area is out of the woods before the storm passes north of it.


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:10 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

looking at the water temp map linked above, it appears the Gulf waters are even warmer than the NW Carib....I think their comments about upwelling were only relevant when the storm was going to ride up the west coast of FL. The central gulf has been fairly undisturbed this year. Unless there is significant sheer, I don't see a very big weakening trend.

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:14 AM
NHC Radar

All of a sudden when I tried to reload my radar pages, it said "Missing Image" when trying to load the progression and nothing happened. It's doing it on three radars that I have tried. Anyone see this before and know what it means?

Ok, it's better now.... weird.

It's doing it again.... seems to be every time I reload because there should be a new point in the radar....


javlin
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:15 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Contray the CMC has been all over it for about a week now.The latest run takes all the way to 92'W.This seems to be somewhat extreme but it could being the way Ivan has behaved.I believe that Ivan only misses Cuba because of the the slow motion and weak steering currents he bounces off the land mass.This has been a consistent factor up to this point.Once he enters the GOM the turn will begin.How great I think nobody knows that yet have to wait and see.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:17 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

Well, for those of us outside the cone of concern, we can take a deep sigh of relief. That doesn't mean we stop paying attention to what's happening. A lot can happen between now and Thursday. In the words of a great teacher, "Do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own." Have a great day!

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:18 AM
Re: NHC Radar

Tjis means that they are having software problems at the computer site. I found images that were loaded out of sequence yesterday and the images were jumping all over the place. Its one of those things that we don;t notice when there is no weather to speak of.

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:21 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

True, we're not in the cone anymore, but LA wasn't in the cone a few days ago either. So...while I'm feeling a little bit better, I'm going to wait until I see what this thing does once it passes Cuba.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:22 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Agree, cmc is a consistent outlier to the west. But even the cmc has been too fast and too far north and west of the actual path. Ivan has definitely caused all of us to reconsider the human nature of trying to predict mother nature.

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:24 AM
Your favorite taboo topic...

Did you see the Dynagel thread on Storm2k? Not sure if this link will work, but I'll try.... Boy, this place is sure better than they are!!!!!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic....eb22608f32cf757


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:25 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Before it is over I think the grand lesson in this is that computers are only as smart as the people who put the data in them and the good ole eyeball to the sky is the most accurate. I will be glad when recon gets into US territory and can tell us where this blasted thing really is rather than relying on computer logic. Storms are not logical.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:36 AM
Re: Your favorite taboo topic...

Quote:

Did you see the Dynagel thread on Storm2k? Not sure if this link will work, but I'll try.... Boy, this place is sure better than they are!!!!!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic....eb22608f32cf757




I want to comment on this real quick because it probably needs to be said. Storm2k is a fine board, they came from the beginnings through the palm beach post when they had a hurricane board. I've got a different approach than them but I don't think either one is better than the other.

As long as information gets out and people can discuss it I could care less (You gotta link I'll link it). It's not a competition of any sort, the only thing that matters is that folks can learn about hurricanes and better protect themselves by seeing varied opinions and discussions. That's the gist of it--the more the merrier in gathering facts and discussions to be better informed.

By the way Ivan Volume I on the main page article is so good I'm going to leave it up longer today.

I do want to add that it's not quite time to drop your guard in Central Florida. I'd wait until Ivan is fully in the gulf and moving solidly before that. If the high near Florida retreats away, then it could head back to the west coast of Florida. Not likely, but still worthy enough to to drop your guard.


.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:42 AM
Re: Rick and his Cat 5 prediction

Agree all who state not to relax until this passes an area without any chance of return. The dynamic that will tell if this goes back east or not is still developing..the WV shows that lower pressure trough is already pretty far into the norhtern GOM area so I would not be surprised tif this does move significantly east toward the end of the forcast period say starting on Tuesday and continuing into Wed.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:43 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Does anyone think that this storm might make a turn and take a closer path like Charlie? I've seen stroms in the past make a turn that no one expected. Please let me know.

Bioman
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:51 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Have you guys seen the Key west radar? they are taking a pounding with feeder bands. Also i noticed that buoy 42003 is reporting winds of 25 knots. 26.01 N 85.91 W

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:52 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I have a question for the pros. If Ivan does indeed make a sharp right & inland Ga. & the Carolinas get hit. What sort of weather can we expect? Should we be considering leaving also? Or do you think it will be something a "normal" house can bear? Thanks for any replies.

javlin
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:56 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Yea Revup I think maybe it is far right now cause I think Ivan makes the turn N after the YUC.This becuase there is no more land for him to bounce off of.The CMC did have Ivan skimming South America,S of Jamica and SW of the Caymans.I don't know if this was due in part that it might of handled the synobtic patterns better.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:57 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I would add, that the computers are also only as smart as the DATA that is put into it, and qute frankly, there is so MUCH MORE data that needs to go in, than is able to for a variety of reasons. Data in the oceanic areas is sparse, hence the NOAA flights to use dropsondes to sample the atmosphere around the storm. Also, if a model uses x number of levels in its input, there are theoretically an infinite amount of levels that CAN be input. But then, the 12z runs wouldn't finish until 0z! (might be an exaggeration). In the winter time, mid-Atl. forecasters are reluctant to forecast strong storms way out into the future, because many times the energy used to create it is out in the Pacific, and except for satellite data, there isn't much data. When it enters land areas, then it can be better factored in.
Because of all of the above, a forum like this can exist and be valuable.


tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:57 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I just noticed (guess I'm still half asleep) that the 8am advisory has hurricane force winds 105 miles from the center. That's amazing.

Bioman
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:57 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

also check out sanf1. look at the windspeed/airpressure plot. If this was all the info i had to go on i would be getting concerned web page

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:01 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

That depends on the exact track, but in general, heavy rains and flooding would be the big issue. Winds would still be strong enough to push over trees in the really spongy, rain-soaked soil. Those in the N.E quadrant will also face the risk of tornadoes, which on a localized basis, will be more damaging than the core winds. However, we will have to see what the storm looks like at that point. I think the several before this one that have moved through that same area would give a good indication of what to expect. And then you hope it doesn't stall anywhere.
The reason coastal residents leave is for the storm surge, which isn't felt inland. Inland gets the above conditions instead, so it depends on your situation, i.e, are you in a flood-prone area, etc.


Kdubs
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:03 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Does anyone have the link to the buoy data website?

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:04 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I am not a meterologist, just a 53 year old woman who is observant. I have observed the outflow direction from Ivan this morning from every available satellite I can find. Some of the loops are not in correct sequence and so it's difficult to say this for certain, but the upper level winds are showing a strong blow off to the southeast from Ivan's outflow right now. If you continue to monitor the satellites, you will notice the changes before the advisories come up. Also make sure you account for the fact that all of the satellites are photographed on a skew, which is different than line of sight. Also one other thing is that hurricanes like to travel towards the northpole unless they are not completely tropical in nature. (paraphrased) It appears to me that Ivan is no different except he prefers to bounce off land masses. My speculation hopefully not true is that he is looking to make it to the Yucatan and then ping-pong his way to his next land mark. I am saying this with fervent prayer that he decides the panhandle of Florida is too much trouble.

Bioman
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:06 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

National Data Buoy Website

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:07 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

NHC continues on each advisory to indicate that the northwest turn will begin on that advisory, but each advisory has Ivan farther west than north each time, and I am wondering if Ivan will ever turn and may end up hitting Texas or Louisiana (which is what the CMC model is showing)

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:12 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

it seems the nw turn may have already occurred as the coordinates for the last 6 hrs are NW.

dani
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:13 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

So I just looked at the latest models and they have all shifted far west over al/ms/la...what is the thought on whether these models have gone too far west or if they appear to be on the mark?

Thanks,
dani


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:14 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

What site did u go to?

Bioman
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:15 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

this storm has humbled many experts. As a scientist I know about variables. A good experiment should only have one variable. Unfortunately the NHCs hypotheses are continually off because of the number of variables and varables within variables like intensity and speed. Models are only as good as data that is entered into the models. Personally i think the five day forecast should be removed because it is horribly inaccurate and publick misinterpretation (due to misinterpretation by the media). I think they need more buoys in the carribean in a grid like fashion so they can measure pressure changes in the climate surrounding hurricanes. ONce again it seems the ocean is this great mystery that we have hideously small amounts of data compared to land.

Bioman
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:16 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

see my post above

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:19 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I am worried that people on the west coast are letting their guard down. They already cancelled the evacuation for the keys and told them they could go back. I live in Volusia county and saw what Charlie did at the last minute and also lived in Homestead when Andrew decided to turn and no one was ready. Right now a lot of people here in Central Florida think they are in the clear and that the panhandle is next in line. Can you or anyone else comment on this way of thinking?

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:20 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

over time is has slowly gained latitude, and continues to do so... right now, albeit still early out, its right on teh NHC forecast track... but hinting ever so slightly that it must be a shade to the left of the next NHC forecast milestone, see loop below and click on forecast paths in upper right corner....

I do believe that once it dues turn north, and I think it will but I hope it doesn't, it will go right up that longitutide line for a long time... any shift to the NNE or NE,if it happens will come very late in the forecast track as it approaches landfall... but this could be critical in the long run.... also critical will be the strength, climatologically, very few Cat 4 or 5 hurricanes, other than Charley, impact land from the NE.... the trof and/or upper level winds better be quite significant to make this happen....


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:20 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

The subsidence bulge is generally to the nw of the center approaching LA, but the upper air currents seem to suggest a NE bend at around 26.5-27.0. If this scenario holds look for a more eastward land fall to about Apalachecola. But this is a dynamic and if the forward speed does not increase the set up could be drastically different. I think forward momentum to the NW is the biggest variable right now as the dynamic is setting up pretty clearly...trough digging down to capture the storm...it is just a matter of timing now. I think the steady northward path into Pensacola is not likely, and is really improbable in a slower moving situation.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:21 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Since the 5 day is now as accurate as the 3 day was 10 or 15 years ago, I am in favor of keeping it. There used to be a disclaimer at the end of every NHC discussion that said "forecast errors may exceed several hundred miles"-and that was on a 3 day forecast. It is all relative in my opinion.

dani
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:24 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html

Is where I saw the models.

Thanks,
dani


MoparMitch
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:25 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I understand your concerns, as a fellow North GA resident (about 20 miles north of Atlanta) not too many people on this board understand our soft pine dilemma and what I would consider our inadequate city infrastructure.

You do not have to look too far back – Frances - to see what 24 hours of “high” winds and rain can do to our great city. Coming out of a 5-year drought and pine beetle infestations our soft pines are weak and brittle, not to mention that they have a shallow root system, not good in strong winds.

As a previous person mentioned, the primary concern will be high winds and rain (flooding) but unlike Frances, we will be more in the north/northeast part of the storm. Historically, most are the tornadoes are generated in that quadrant of tropical systems. The only “good” thing is that tropical spun tornadoes tend to be weak (0-1 on the scale) although Frances had spun some particularly strong twisters – Hilton Head Island was fascinating by very dangerous. As of the 9/12 11pm NHC reports, the center of Ivan will still maintain itself as a tropical storm as far inland as south of Rome, GA !!! That is impressive and scary.

At this point, if you know you have trees on your property that “could” reach your house, then I would see if you could get them removed. Trust me, it is a great investment. I pulled 40 pines last year from my backyard!! It was not cheap, but at least I do not evacuate to the bottom floor when the wind blows or when there is an ice storm.

Mitch…


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:26 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

Wont41 Knhc 131300
Dsaat
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
900 Am Edt Mon Sep 13 2004

Satellite Images And Surface Observations Indicate The Tropical Wave
Approaching The Leeward Islands Has Become Better Organized This
Morning...and It Could Become A Tropical Depression During The Next
24 Hours. The System Is Moving West-northwestward At About 10 Mph
And It Will Bring Locally Heavy Rains And Gusty Winds To The
Leeward Islands Today And Tomorrow.

Forecaster Stewart


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:27 AM
Back to the Keys??

The Keys are reopened and people are being sent into this. I know it's not a hurricane, but still. Why not wait a bit longer?

The stronger showers and thunderstorms will produce tropical wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph... cut visibility to under 1 mile in very heavy downpours. In addition... with each round of squalls and showers... rainfall amounts will average a half of an inch. This from Key West NWS.


Kdubs
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:28 AM
Re: Your favorite taboo topic...

Quote:

By the way Ivan Volume I on the main page article is so good I'm going to leave it up longer today.
.




MikeC, where is this article you speak of? I couldn't locate it.

Thanks, Kyle


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:28 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

148
URNT12 KNHC 131404
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1404Z
B. 20 DEG 28 MIN N
84 DEG 17 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2340 M
D. 60 KT
E. 218 DEG 052 NM
F. 306 DEG 140 KT
G. 207 DEG 015 NM
H. EXTRAP 913 MB
I. 12 C/ 3100 M
J. 18 C/ 3100 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 2809A IVAN OB 26
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 1006Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB.

;
Pressure extrap. at 913 shows it is falling again.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:30 AM
Re: Your favorite taboo topic...

Quote:

Quote:

By the way Ivan Volume I on the main page article is so good I'm going to leave it up longer today.
.




MikeC, where is this article you speak of? I couldn't locate it.

Thanks, Kyle




I was talking about the long artice from Clark, Ed, Hank and I on the main page here.


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:41 AM
Re: Back to the Keys??

Quote:

The Keys are reopened and people are being sent into this. I know it's not a hurricane, but still. Why not wait a bit longer?

The stronger showers and thunderstorms will produce tropical wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph... cut visibility to under 1 mile in very heavy downpours. In addition... with each round of squalls and showers... rainfall amounts will average a half of an inch. This from Key West NWS.


Well, welcome to normal Florida weather. We don't evacuate everytime a severe thunderstorm heads our way, do we? Please let people get on with their lives. There's no reason to let Ivan hold us hostage. And no, this doesn't mean anyone should let their guard down. We just need to teach and encourage people to act more rational in these situations.

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:44 AM
Re: Back to the Keys??

NW movment has started as of the 11am adv

Takingforever
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:51 AM
Re: Back to the Keys??

Rational? I don't know...How can you be rational when these storms are not rational? After what Charley did, I rather have everyone unrational, because we saw what happen when people forgot how these storms work(Not for us or our tracks). Hell, I'm still hearing people saying in the Fl panhandle: "If this thing a Cat 3, we're saying, but if it's a 4 or 5, we're out of here!"

I don't think they know what they are talking about with a Hurricane hitting them dead on in the first time in over 80 years. Rational..Rather not have them like that..


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:52 AM
Re: Back to the Keys??

Where do you find the 11:00 advisory early? wunderground used to get it out quite early, but not the last several times.

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:52 AM
11AM

Discussion not out yet, but the track seems to be a slight bit east of 5AM. Very small move, a little east. Also, now they maintain 120kts to landfall.

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:54 AM
Re: 11AM

Can someone please post Joe B's current thinking. Not asking for a copy paste, but a synopsis. Thanks in advance.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:55 AM
Re: 11AM

Sorry..I meant the discussion..not the public advisory. Yes, I too think last track moved very slightly east.

Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:56 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I cannot speak for everyone on the west coast of Florida, but those I do speak with are NOT letting their guard down. We are not really looking at the 5 day projection path of the models. We are paying closer attention to the fact that this extremly dangerous storm is southwest of us and too close for comfort. Some have finally taken a breath. The blue hue was not becoming of them...

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:58 AM
Re: 11AM

Oh, thank you NHC...Stewart will be doing the discussion. No dis to any of the OTHER forecasters, he just explains things better.
I guess the NHC was correct after all..they said last night that the turn would begin soon. 12 hours to be exact. Now I think we can understand WHY they kept it to the east of the forecast models.


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 10:58 AM
Re: 11AM

everything BUT the discussion is out now.
http://www.atwc.org/

This is where I usually check for them.
310 deg is the offical movement now.

Right after posting, the discussion came out.


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:00 AM
Re: 11AM

actually, their water vapor analysis is very similar to what I wrote yesterday, the only difference since then is that the shift in UL winds over Fla.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:00 AM
wondering

First, has a Cat V ever hit Cuba, and when was the last Cat IV to hit the Panhandle?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:01 AM
Re: 11AM

Great site thinks..interesting discussion by Stewart.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:03 AM
Re: 11AM

I apologize again..meant thanks not thinks! Sleep deprived from 3 weeks of hurricane watching 24/7...

Ricreig
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:04 AM
Re: Back to the Keys??

Quote:

Rational? I don't know...How can you be rational when these storms are not rational?


I agree that storms are not rational, so YOU have to be. THis means keeping abreast of current information, applying your knowledge and experience, making rational decisions based upon what you and those you trust to make good decisions (mets, etc.) and then act on those decisions in a timely manner. *Could* Key West be hit directly, yes, is it likely? No, not based upon what we 'know' about the facts available. No, storms are not rational, but somebody has to be.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:05 AM
Re: Back to the Keys??

Rational is paying attention to the NHC forecasts and public mets on TV/radio. Irrational is news media tunnel vision, focusing on a city rather than a region (i.e. cone of concern).
Rational is preparing for the cyclone, then taking appropriate protective measures if and when it moves within 48 hours of my location. Irrational is hoarding supplies, threatening others, looting, and not looking out for the needs of others.
Rational is the response of many, many people after Charley to help bring in supplies, cleanup, and rebuild. Nothing could have prevented Charley from doing what it did. People did respond with compassion to help out others, though. No need to panic.
"Prepare for the worst, pray for the best."


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:08 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

These people located here in Central Florida. They are letting their guards down. Like Orange, Seminole, and Volusia couinties. I'm not, and I live in Volusia. I saw Charlie and Andrew. Not pretty!

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:09 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

LOL, Kim...you're right. If you live in Jamaica, you're in the clear as far as Ivan's concerned, because he's already made his presence well known. No one else ABOVE him is yet. I think the rule of thumb is that until a storm is past your lat/lon, you're supposed to pay attention. If people want to say I'm irrational, fine. I'm not. I'm very confident in what I do and say. If I was running around knocking on people's doors telling them the sky was falling, get me a room at the Physco-Day Inn.
I'm not sure what Ivan's gonna do, none of us are or we WOULD be able to stop paying attention. Keep in mind that since this turn has started now, it's closer to the peninsula than previously thought. At least, that's what I think. If the N turn starts in a day or so, then we're right back where we were 6 days ago.
Hopefully not. But this is exactly why people NEED to pay attention. Not panic, just monitor.


Ricreig
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:12 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:

These people located here in Central Florida. They are letting their guards down. Like Orange, Seminole, and Volusia couinties. I'm not, and I live in Volusia. I saw Charlie and Andrew. Not pretty!


I think what you are seeing is not letting their guard down but instead stopping the holding of our collective breath. We are starting to turn blue and need oxygen to live, so we breathe a collective sigh of relief....but we do NOT let our guard down. I, for one just bought more batteries despite the current forecast, but I also bought a new UPS for my computers. Some sense of normalcy with guarded optimism and constant vigilance.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:12 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I agree that this storm could go off course and surprise us so that is why I have all my boards up and other supplies ready. NHC does what it can and does tell all of us to be prepared.

ToddR
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Afternoon all!

Thanks for the interesting discussions! I have learned more about hurricanes, meteorology, and geography since 8:00 this morning!

Here is my question from a completely non-weather guy--My wife and I are "supposed" to head to Orlando tomorrow morning for a nice "relaxing" vacation in Disney World....Should we reschedule? Is this a bad idea waiting to happen? We will be there until Friday (flying in from Ohio). Any insight would be greatly appreciated!

Todd


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:18 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Agree entirely, Richard.
Good forecast and discussion from NHC. The only thing I suspect is that they move Ivan a little too fast. That can be a good habit, though.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Will post more when the new thread comes out. Ivan looks good and finally is feeling the breaking of the ridge over the eastern gulf. Still 2 things can happen and I favor my 3 day forcast of landfall near Biloxi after skimming LA. The other I will mention in next tread. Also I will mention the development of Tropical Storm Jeanne about 150 miles east of Dominica. This should become named when recon goes in there. Im not sure exactly if they are going in this afternoon, but this will be a small compact system.

scottsvb


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:

Here is my question from a completely non-weather guy--My wife and I are "supposed" to head to Orlando tomorrow morning for a nice "relaxing" vacation in Disney World....Should we reschedule? Is this a bad idea waiting to happen? We will be there until Friday (flying in from Ohio). Any insight would be greatly appreciated!

Todd


I only live two hours away, and if I had the opportunity, I would definitely go. I just hope you're not connecting through Atlanta on Friday ... could be a real mess!

DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

[quote NHC does what it can and does tell all of us to be prepared.




I believe that the bottom line here is responsibility. Most houses here left thier boards up from last week, we made sure that what supplies were used during Frances were restocked, and many of us did not restock the meats, buying what is needed and no more. I have listened to news, and have spent time reading here, learning, checking out links and paying attention. Even though we are in the clear as far as that cone on the model, it is just a model, and Ivan is not obligated to follow the path that NHC or any other model lays down. So I will lurk in the back ground here, reading every post, checking out every link, and educating myself so I can make responsible decisions with the information provided me. What else is there to do? Just my 2cents


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Do not take it personal. I was just making a broad statement. Some of the people I work with think that everything is okay and I do not like to see that happen. They just need to keep a close eye on things, that's all.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:27 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I am noticing several comparisons of Charley and Andrew, so I would like to clear a few things up...
Andrew was not one of those last minute track surprises--if you go back to the FTP NHC site and look at the forecasts, they did forecast a turn to the west, and after that, Andrew moved west for 2 days without a track change

As for the Charley comparisons, Charley was much farther northeast than Ivan is right now, and Ivan is just now starting to show a northwest turn--Charley made a due north turn and turned northeast AT the coast; Ivan is still gaining longitude and woudl have to make an 80 degree angle with the track to turn northeast
Also, if you look at the IR loop you will notice a slight jog to the west
However, NO one should let their guard down anywhere in the gulf--It is just as likely to hit Texas as it is to turn northeast
I personally thing it will hit between St. Marks and Pensacola


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:28 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:

These people located here in Central Florida. They are letting their guards down. Like Orange, Seminole, and Volusia couinties. I'm not, and I live in Volusia. I saw Charlie and Andrew. Not pretty!




There's a difference between being "aware" of where the storm is and totally letting your guard down.
I still have my hurricane kit handy and all my antenna's are up and tuned into Ivan. However I no longer expect it to influence the weather in Central Florida except for a breeze and maybe a few rain showers.
Is that letting your guard down? I don't know.
But I would plan to have a normal week in Central Florida if any of us are normal anymore.
We're all pretty much still bumed out.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:30 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Charley and Andrew used for destruction comparison, not direction comparison.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:30 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I just watched TB's News. They are on at 11am. John Winter said, "We need to be CAUTIOUSLY optimistic. Do NOT let your guard down in any way, shape or form. Things can change, and as we've seen with Ivan, anything is possible. Even a couple hundred---or even a 100mile change in track to the right --- will make a huge difference in our weather."
He's concerned about that inverted ^ over the western U.S. pushing Ivan further north and east, and at the slow rate he's moving, it is important to pay attention. At the rate this things moving, we might still be looking at Ivan when we're handing out Halloween candy.
I would also add this as a people-watcher: he is not as comfortable as he was yesterday with Ivan's projected path. You can read it in his body language.


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:32 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Ref the question on the Disney Vacation.

Without question I would come.
All the resorts at Disney are up and running
and you will have a wonderful time.


Kdubs
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:32 AM
NHC Special Announcement

Did anyone else notice the special announcement from the NHC at 9am EST stating the preliminary organiization of a new storm over the Leeward Islands? Isn't that where Charley started and where Ivan was just 5-6 days ago?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:33 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Florida residents up to the Carolinas will have to monitor the situation slowly developing near the Leeward islands.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 AM
Re: NHC Special Announcement yeah & think NOLA is safe

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trpG8wvL.html

check it out.. may be a prob for models


Ricreig
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:

Afternoon all!

Thanks for the interesting discussions! I have learned more about hurricanes, meteorology, and geography since 8:00 this morning!

Here is my question from a completely non-weather guy--My wife and I are "supposed" to head to Orlando tomorrow morning for a nice "relaxing" vacation in Disney World....Should we reschedule? Is this a bad idea waiting to happen? We will be there until Friday (flying in from Ohio). Any insight would be greatly appreciated!

Todd


At the moment, there is no reason to cancel your plans. I would expect, unlike normal September weather which can be hot, muggy and no breeze, that the forecast will include a breeze Seriously, I would certainly keep abreast of conditions and forecasts but unless the track shifts way east, that Disney (who has a contract with the Wx Channel I suspect) will be open and relatively safe. In fact, if you live north of here, Ga, Tenn, Ohio, etc., it could prove safer due to flooding rains that will certainly develop from Ivan after landfall.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:

I believe that the bottom line here is responsibility. Most houses here left their boards up from last week, we made sure that what supplies were used during Frances were restocked, and many of us did not restock the meats, buying what is needed and no more. I have listened to news, and have spent time reading here, learning, checking out links and paying attention. Even though we are in the clear as far as that cone on the model, it is just a model, and Ivan is not obligated to follow the path that NHC or any other model lays down. So I will lurk in the back ground here, reading every post, checking out every link, and educating myself so I can make responsible decisions with the information provided me. What else is there to do? Just my 2cents


Super! Great testimony to the need for this site. MikeC, the CFHC has been of great service to so many people. Glad to hear people are donating. Thanks again!

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:40 AM
Re: NHC Special Announcement yeah & think NOLA is safe

lois...you may want to explain what you mean in that post besides just posting a link. There are a lot of new people here that just started their new weather hobby, and that loop won't do anything except to confuse them.
If I'm thinking what you're thinking, you may be seeing the trough coming down faster and pushing the storm further to the NW/N? Is this correct?


Ricreig
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:40 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:

Do not take it personal. I was just making a broad statement. Some of the people I work with think that everything is okay and I do not like to see that happen. They just need to keep a close eye on things, that's all.


I rarely take things personal unless you are pointing a gun at me, but I did feel compelled to take a generic statement made by you that implied all of CF residents were letting their guard down. I think the attitudes of your co-workers may be their way of 'breating', not necessarily becoming indifferent to the situation. CF is NOT out of the woods yet, nor is Tampa or the big bend, or even Key West, but the PROBABILITYs are now much lower. When they go to zero, I'll let my guard down on Ivan and concentrate on what may become TD#11.

PS, if your co-workers ARE letting their guard down, it doesn't mean the reast of us are, and it also gives you an excuse to 're-educate' them.


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:53 AM
Ivan Turning More

Look at this WV loop....Ivan looks to be going NNW already
(animate with the 30 frame selection)
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

--Lou


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:53 AM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

You are correct. I tried to re-educate, but it doesn't always work. Nice chating with you and getting your insight on the situation.

Lisa NC
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 11:58 AM
Re: Ivan Turning More

In the last 2 frames of this loop you can see an almost due north movement. If he starts moving north that put all of FL's west coast in target range again...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:00 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

I totally agree with that statement. Yet, it may be a wobble, lets give it a few more frames to see what happens. EVen if it wobbles more north though, this would increase fl chances whould it not?

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:03 PM
Updated maps - Ivan ADV#45

Central Gulf coast - close up


Cuba / Keys - close up


Full size images here: Skeetobite.com


Ricreig
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:03 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

Quote:

Look at this WV loop....Ivan looks to be going NNW already
(animate with the 30 frame selection)
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

--Lou


Lou, It *may* be going NW or even NNW at the moment, but it is the trend over hours that is important in the long run. My post did not exclude *any* location such as Orlando or Tampa, just that probabilities are now lower. It may be improbable that I ever win the lotto, but it *could* happen...just that I am not currently counting on it to pay bills

Ricreig
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:06 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:

You are correct. I tried to re-educate, but it doesn't always work. Nice chating with you and getting your insight on the situation.


In the long run, it *is* important what YOU yourself do and say, not only now, but during your entire lifetime. You know the old saying about leading a horse to water but can't make it drink? Well, my advice is to try and keep the water available. By your actions and word, *show* those who are less 'thinking' the better way you follow.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:06 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

tropical storm watch still up for keys west of Marathon... I am absolutely shocked the evacuation of the lower keys is lifted..EDS

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:09 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

Still NW.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:10 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

a few days ago, it appeared to be moving due north, but it turned back towards the west a few hours later (this was the day after passing Jamaica)

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:10 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

Quote:

tropical storm watch still up for keys west of Marathon... I am absolutely shocked the evacuation of the lower keys is lifted..EDS




That is what I said earlier too!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:15 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

Just wanted to say thanks to you guys for deleting that obnoxious messge about Ivan destroying the Pensacola Christian College from "hmmm" last night. I didn't get a chance to post this earlier because my cable went out right after I read it. Now is not the time to wish damage and destruction on anyone regardless of your veiws on Christianity. If this storm goes up there it could be devastating for everyone. Quite honestly, that was the most obnoxious post I personslly have ever read on here. Thanks for getting rid of it. I'm in Indialantic, Fl and we evacuated to my family's in Ft. Walton Beach, Fl for Frances and now that we are home they have to deal with Ivan. Last night was the first time I had a chance to look at my beautiful landscaping and is a mess but it could have been so worse.much worse. I only hope Ivan weakens before it hits the US...wherever that may be.

dolphinscry
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:16 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I agree w/ Colleen, I noticed that he didnt seem like he was comfortable at all.
I am in West Central Fl., in Sumter Co.
I still have all the boxes of important things (unpacked from F.)ready to go, and am watching and waiting.
Silly, I'm sure, but I dont feel "right" about this storm. I cant begin to explain it.
Well, hopefully this post will make it before the new thread, because everytime Ive posted since yesterday, I get lost, lol!
Stay safe!


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:19 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

well said Richie.

SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:21 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

Looks NW to me on this Water Vapor.

web page

This may be one of the last times I get to post here before Ivan approaches the Northeast/Central Gulf Coast. I've got a lot of preparing and stuff to do today. Not much time for a computer the next couple days. I'll try and post once or twice as the storm approaches. All those up here stay safe and report back when the storm passes! If you're told to evacuate GO!!!! Find a shelter or something. There are plenty.

Take Care All!!! And don't take this lightly! Even if you're not in the projected cone-this thing is so big it's going to affect a LOT of people........


GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:24 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

I think the difference this time is that the NHC has been saying it would or should make that turn.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:28 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

He's heading at 310. The eye is turning inside of the overall storm and will sometimes appear to be going more N or more W depending on its positioning from the previous frames. Ivan is feeling himself toward the Yucatan Channel, and may only clip the fringe west of Cuba. I'd also recommend you follow the visible in the day and the IR only at night when you have to for "eye following" purposes for storms outside of radar.

Here's a link for your convenience:

Visible storm floater

Steve


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:32 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

FYI to all concerned about the more NNW track. That is actually expected. If you look at the forecast positions, they are more NNW than NW for the entire peiod before the turn NE.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:33 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

As if anyone needed another reminder of what hurricanes can do, Fox 13's Howard Shapiro just mentioned ELENA. Came up, made a hard right, hit West Central Florida.
Ric's right: lead by example, don't preach. People don't react as well to others telling them what they *should* be doing, they are more inclined to follow. Remember, people like leaders, not screamers.

On a humorous note: Fox 13 just gave 3 examples of people's ideas of how to stop hurricanes:
1) Coat the entire ocean with OLIVE OIL.
2) Direct giant FANS to blow them in the other direction.
3) Use nuclear warheads to blow them up - which the director of the NHC didn't like at all, as he said, "Hurricanes are bad enough without them being radioactive."

Okay, how could you NOT laugh at those insane ideas? With the exception being, maybe #3 not being so funny, more stupid.


palmetto
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:38 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

I may have only been four, but I remember Elena pretty vividly. She stalled right off the coast of west central Florida, turned around, and scraped the panhandle before she finally made landfall in Mississippi. I don't think she ever actually made landfall in Florida. My grandparents had evacuated to my parents' home near St. Marks, and we all ended up piling into cars and driving to /their/ house in central Florida by the time all was said and done.

My most vivid memory of the trip was sitting in the back of my grandmother's van with the family dog licking me in the face.

Every time I start to get complacent that a storm will hit a certain place, I remember Elena.


lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:39 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

Don't you think, too that many folks just feel overwhelmed? It sometimes doesn't occur to them to just take it an hour at a time, and start with basic things, like get the laundry done, check for food/water, and gas up the car. If possible, divide the tasks between family members. (And one of my secret survival tips was to keep a couple of games the kids hadn't seen hidden, and brought them out when we we hot, tired, and cooped up.)

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:42 PM
Really concerned about this...

Think IF Ivan is caught by the trof he is going to bend back to the right.. look at the hook on that trof which is as we speak going fishing for Ivan

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:42 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Looking at the maps in motion and using common sense it can be seen that with the front that is moving down faster and the high pressure moving further eastward along with the hurricane moving due north at this time. I strongly believe that it is going right into the west coast of Florida. I hope that I am wrong. But the hurricane bands are already about to start touching the front and that will pull it further eastward. I would suggest that this message be forwarded to the hurricane center and a human review this and issue the proper warnings and watches for the West Coast of Florida as it is strongly believed that this will occur and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see it. Just look at the IR loop radar and the water vapor loop radar and this will be clear!

Urgent tag removed from Message, opinion left as is. - Mike C.


DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

Quote:


On a humorous note: Fox 13 just gave 3 examples of people's ideas of how to stop hurricanes:
1) Coat the entire ocean with OLIVE OIL.
2) Direct giant FANS to blow them in the other direction.
3) Use nuclear warheads to blow them up - which the director of the NHC didn't like at all, as he said, "Hurricanes are bad enough without them being radioactive."





On this train of thought I remembered something I heard as a child and wondered what ever happened with the idea of "seeding" a storm?

Here where I live I swear we just got a rain band that smelled and felt like bands from a hurricane. I guess I am hypersensitive or something, but It dumped so much rain, you couldn't see the back fence, then blink, it was gone. I could smell the sea in the rain and wind.


Daytonaman
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:44 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I too agree with Colleen. Living in Volusia County has been a rough ride the last month. Have been keeping a weary (sleepy) eye on Ivan and have throughly enjoyed all the comments and helpful insight on this site. I hope that any who experience Ivan remember that the most important asset we all have are families so be safe.
N. Texas NWS...click on large national image loop (visible) Large National Visible Loop


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:46 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I have been reading and using the site since Charley, which caught us all off guard here in Tampa and Orlando, and it is a great source for info. However, I would have to agree with some- I don't know why, but I just have a bad feeling about this storm. I have said it since Day 1 that Tampa was going to feel the effects in a bad way, and I have been watching the radar and tracking the storm and checking out the currents and flows, and I can obviously see the projections and all, but I STILL just cannot shake the feeling that we are still in trouble here on the Central West coast. I admittedly don't know a HUGE amount about hurricane forecasting, but I am a grad student at USF studying climatology, and I DO know that this thing is unreal and unpredictable- I have researched a lot about the past storms and weather patterns, and I won't be satisfied until it is off in the northern US somewhere as a pitiful rain cloud. So everyone please just keep checking out the Internet and news and be careful! Hopefully, this ominous feeling will disappear soon, as I SURELY don't want to go through yet another horrible storm!

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:55 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

This is getting a little off-the-wall. Maybe it's time to restrict posters to registered only until the threat passes?

Steve


Jane219ga
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:55 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

Funny that Howard Shapiro brought up Elena; I have been thinking of that storm throughout the whole Ivan watch. Talk about unpredictable!!!! We had just moved here just a few months before - we did go to Busch Gardens on Labor Day after Elena - pretty much had the place to ourselves!

GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:57 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I agree steve. It is people like that who give anons a bad rep.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:58 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Please do not panic...while it is wise to be cautious and even suspicious of movements we think we see in the storm from Sat pics ( I do this type of analysis more than most by the way) it is also prudent to let the professionals tells us what is going on..Sat pics are taken at different angels and often have time and orientation difficulties. If a trend is seen in them for several hours then that is probably noteworthy. .NHC has been pretty good generally this season (note I've backed off on my unequivocal endorsement posted last week). Forecaster Stewart's discussion at 11 a.m.said it all and there is reason for caution and increased diligence along the entire west coast of Florida, as the closer it actually may come the more effects we will see. However there is no reason for warnings or the like yet. Admittedly if and when they are posted it will be a very short time period before conditions consistent with the warnngs are experienced (24hrs or so)..
That is why cautious preparation is the best bet, IMO.


clueless
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 12:59 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I agree the poster's message may have been more than just a tad alarmist, but if the purpose of this board is to educate and inform than maybe that would be a better response than banning them. I am new to all of this hurricane stuff myself and have really been glad to learn from all of you who know hwat you are talking about. Some people learn best by expressing their thoughts and having someone help them understand the flaws.

Just a thought


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:00 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I agree 100%....

Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:00 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Just listened to the 1230pm news on WSB-AM and they had someone on from FEMA talking about the effects of Ivan on North Georgia, and the quote was something like stock up on batteries, flashlights and water....

This might not be the day to head to the grocery store for the weekly shopping.....

Also anyone know when the next recon flight will happen?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:03 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Steve, I totally agree. I'm a registered poster who lost his password and is fixing to go retrieve it right now. Mike emailed me on how I can get it. The last thing we need in a situation like this is someone getting hysterical and causing more people to panic when they don't need to be. Trust me, I'm sure the NHC is seeing everything that any of us on here are privileged to see and more and I'm sure they will issue the proper warnings at the appropriate times. Please don't freak out people on here looking for information who don't have a real understanding of whats going on with this storm.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:04 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:

I agree steve. It is people like that who give anons a bad rep.




Two things:
One, people are very scared after frances and charley
two, a lot of new people who have never followed hurricanes or hurricane season are discovering
the internet and sat and radar pics etc .
They just don't have enough hurricane savy so to speak.

Watch and be ready but realize that the NHC has a fairly good handle on Ivan.


GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:05 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Being worried is one thing but there are too many people who come on here and place stupid post that are mostly from anonns and then one of the moderators have to delete it. Why waste the time deleting the post when they can just make it to where if you are not going to take the time to register then you cant post.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:09 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

The rules are and some of the ANON's may not know this is IF you have an opinion then stateit but ALSO tells us the reasons for it...don't just pop off and say "warnings need to be posted immediately the Sat Pics tell us why" but state why the sat pics say why...then others can review the data confirm or refute it.
Uncorroborated opinions are just that...I ignore them


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:14 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

So after watching the Water Vapor and Visibal Sat Loops all morning it seems to me that the Low over TN is pushing the High pressure boundry ESE. Would this not "block" Ivan and push it off to the east?

lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:15 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

Quote:


Uncorroborated opinions are just that...I ignore them




Well put.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:19 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

per Stewart(NHC) "the latest WV imagery and the latest upper air data indicate a 500MB low over W. Tenn. with a sharp N/S oriented trough extending southward into the NCentral GOM ...has eroded the subtropical ridge axis over the central and eastern GOM."
it was this ridge that Ivan has been following...inference in this is it will slide more to the right.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:23 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I read that too. Was just wondering if that is in fact what I am seeing. Is that Boundry expected to continue to dirve SE? If so I would have to belive that is bad news for us (N Tampa).

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:23 PM
Re: model shifts

By the way in the 11am discussion I noted Stewart said the model guidance shifted "westward". I think he meant "Eastward" didn't he? It actually shifted about 35 miles east I think

GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:26 PM
Re: model shifts

I was thinking that too doug, but just thought it was me.

Mozart
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:26 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

Regarding those rain bands in Cocoa Beach...those were the outer bands of Ivan:

Infrared Loop of Western Atlantic

Good God he's big.


kirdona
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:27 PM
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again

I was headed out to do that today and I thought I was being a tad alarmist....didn't think it could affect us this far inland. Glad to know someone else thinks I'm being proactive. :P I just moved to Columbus, GA from Phoenix. I have no idea what to expect, and will be home by myself with two small kids if and when it hits here. What should I be stocking up on? What can I expect? Thanks!!!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:29 PM
Re: model shifts

I agree Doug, it DID shift Eastward.

GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:30 PM
Re: Ivan Turning More

looks like it

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:31 PM
Re: model shifts

I think he did mean westward, as that really hasn't changed trends-yet, anyway. If that were an error, he likely would have put out a corrected discussion. The pattern he talked about is somewhere in some of my posts yesterday. Also, on today's pics, notice that the western side is being impinged while the outlow is stretching north. You often see that when a system is trying to turn. It almost looks as if I were trying to push a moving object much heavier than me in a different direction....can't push it much, but you can see WHERE I am pushing on it.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:32 PM
Re: model shifts

If you read the whole 11am discussion Stewart said that but he also said they have kept their forecast to the right of the model guidance because of it. Seems to me that they have already built that into their forecast

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:40 PM
Re: model shifts

I have seen that too but have not put any stock into that as the direction is clarly unchanged all morning.
After it clears Cuba and Yucatan to night, then we may see a mor northerly trend...it seems if the set up on that is still out to about 26n along about 87w...there after until the upper air from the west either continues or abates we'll be unable to say what Tuesday will bring.
It looks like the trough along the upper GOMcoast previously discussed has just about reached it apex and is seen to be lifting out to the ne...The high from TEX and the next trough will have to complete the picture...I still believe a right slide from the trac is indicated. no sign of a sharp turn until later in the period.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:41 PM
Re: model shifts

Images look pretty impressive. Looks like a clear highway right through central fla.....

looks like high pressure is building almost on top of the "strike" area forcasted @ 11


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:43 PM
Re: model shifts

I didn't mean to come down on that poster, but he had URGENT capitalized at the beginning of his post and used the IR to show a North Wobble where indeed, the eye was turning inside of the storm. When going to visible, that all straightens itself out.

For the Bastardi fans, he's come out with his forecast for landfall at or near the Mouth of the Mississippi River with 120-140 winds and a pressure of 925-940. He thinks there will be gale force winds out 200 miles to either side of the center and that the storm will move painfully slow through the southern Appalachains causing a fairly catastrophic flood event for some (think that would be GA, SC, NC). He believes the track of Ivan will be through the Yucatan channel and not across Cuba.

Certainly this should get everyone's attention almost all the way to Tallahassee. Ivan is shaping up to be potentially the worst North Gulf storm in a few decades and certainly one for the history books and a new point of reference for each and every one of us.

I think Bastardi's a bit far west, but either way, if I'm between Bay St. Louis and Orange Beach, I'm REALLY getting my stuff together this afternoon.

Steve


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:45 PM
Re: model shifts

On H2O imagery, it looks like there was a small vortex rounding the base of the trough which helped turn the storm a little. The base of the trough is in the north-cent. GOM, and is having an effect on the system. This trough has likely bottomed, but it is responsible for whatever turn has been seen to this point, and is still drawing it up as we speak.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:50 PM
Re: model shifts

So are you thinking the NHC is going to adjust their forecasted track all the way back down to the Tampa area? i mean, I know they have margins of error but that would be pretty extreme. I know they have seen everything that you are seeing and more.We all know this track will be tweaked every six hours from now until it hits so I realize that nobody on the Gulf coast is out of the woods yet but still thats an awfully big adjustment. We'll just have to wait and see.

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:52 PM
Re: model shifts

2:00pm pressure 914mb

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:28 PM
Surf's Up

Check out the 72 hour wave heights!

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:28 PM
Re: model shifts

no not all the way to Tampa. But look at the eastern side of the so called cone...I think that is possible.

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:32 PM
Re: model shifts

Even the eastern side of the cone is a problem for Tampa Bay, it would cause some serious flooding on the coast and in the Bay.

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:32 PM
Re: model shifts

Steve,

Is this a new forecast. As in after the dvelopments of today. I was in full agreement, but the little ULL over TN has eaten away at the ridge and could make him well west. Maybe his expert eye sees something that I don't. Landfall in his area would be utterly disasterous. New Orleans could have damage, Biloxi/Gulfport could have severe damage, Dauphin Island/Mobile/Gulf Shores could catastrophic damage. I am supposed to go to Mobile Friday. wonder if that trip will be cancelled.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:35 PM
Re: model shifts

Even if it does go in by Tampa, what do you think that means for Daytona?

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:41 PM
New Vortex: 912mb

000
URNT12 KNHC 131747
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1747Z
B. 20 DEG 53 MIN N
84 DEG 41 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2305 M
D. 60 KT
E. 321 DEG 86 NM
F. 031 DEG 136 KT
G. 296 DEG 010 NM
H. 912 MB
I. 11 C/ 3056 M
J. 20 C/ 3079 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF980 3109A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 136 KT NW QUAD 1744Z

The pressure continues to drop. This vortex message comes from the NW quadrant...higher winds will likely be found in the NE quadrant....watch for that next vortex message....Ivan looks to be strengthening more.. The eye has opened completely and the storm is getting more symmetrical.
As for movement....I see a sustained NW-NNW motion for several hours now....can't be considered a wobble any longer. I am starting to get more concerned as to a much further eastward strike than what the NHC is currently forecasting. Not to be alarmist...all of Florida needs to keep in close touch with future updates.

--Lou


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:47 PM
Re: New Vortex: 912mb

Its still heading NW I dont think NNW yet. Also Mozart you said that the outer bands were going thru Cocoa??? NOT!!!!!!!!! That has nothing todo with IVAN. Ivans farthest outer bands are moving thru the Keys and extreme sw florida.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:49 PM
Re: New Vortex: 912mb

Thanks Lou,
The only way I could be keeping a closer watch is to litterally crawl into the computer screen LOL

I see a more Northerly track as well and agree now that it wouldn't take much of an Easterly componant to bring much worse weather to the Peninsula.


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:49 PM
Special HFC Statement

(Off Topic Post removed by moderator--normally this might be pretty funny, but not now, with so many on edge)

Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM
Re: New Vortex: 912mb

Going by the Dvorak GOES floater loop, I'd want to say that the storm is skirting just a little to the right of the forecast track. Not by much (turn on the track markers), but enough that we might be looking at a slight shift eastward of the track coming down the line at the next update.

We're not giving up our vigilance here in Lakeland, I can tell you that! The only thing that worries me around here is the way the counties called for no Monday schools back on Friday. I can understand why at the time, but the part that makes me concerned is that, should against all odds Ivan turn to the right, people may not be prepared now in time. The prevailing thought around here is "it's not coming our way", and going back to school on Tuesday is going to reinforce that thinking.

So we'll see. These hurricanes have wrecked havoc on our schools, let alone our wits. Some schools are nearly a month behind now. I was actually amazed they called Monday closures as early as they did. (Back when they did, landfall was anticipated late Monday night/early Tuesday morning). Pinellas was the only county that decided to wait until late Sat/early Sun to make the call. My wife thinks it was so they could have kids relay the word home, rather than rely on media. Dunno - but she's also wishing they waited, as she laughingly said "we're going to be teaching school in July this year"


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM
Re: New Vortex: 912mb

scottsvb...look at the latest IR shots showing the cloud shield of Ivan reaching well up into Central FL....then take a look at the latest Melbourne radar shot. You will clearly see an arching band of showers stretching across the state from Cocoa to just north of Tampa. While you may argue this is not the hurricane per se up in C FL, the convection occuring has definitely been influenced and enhanced by the outermost structure of the hurricane.

--Lou


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM
forward speed?

seems to be moving faster

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM
Re: Special HFC Statement

If that was meant for me I did not take humor to it!

DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:52 PM
Re: New Vortex: 912mb

Quote:

Its still heading NW I dont think NNW yet. Also Mozart you said that the outer bands were going thru Cocoa??? NOT!!!!!!!!! That has nothing todo with IVAN. Ivans farthest outer bands are moving thru the Keys and extreme sw florida.




Well, I looked at this loop and I could see outflow going all the way up to the cape. Please, correct me if I am wrong here, but if I am not seeing flow that is directly attached to Ivan, explain to me what I am seeing. Please.
Infared loop


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:54 PM
Re: Special HFC Statement

Thank you so much. I have been lurking for WEEKS and I think this is the first "forecast" I haven't fretted over. I needed it. Thnx a bunch!

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:55 PM
Re: Special HFC Statement

Am I alone in thinking this was not funny in the least? My heart jumped in my throat when I started to read this post. Sitting here in Central FL with signs turning somewhat more ominous as to the possible future outcome with Ivan, I think the time has passed for off-color attempts at humor

--Lou


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:57 PM
Re: Special HFC Statement

Quote:

Am I alone in thinking this was not funny in the least? My heart jumped in my throat when I started to read this post. Sitting here in Central FL with signs turning somewhat more ominous as to the possible future outcome with Ivan, I think the time has passed for off-color attempts at humor

--Lou




no it was not funny, it was sarcastic and I feel it was directed to me.


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:57 PM
Re: Special HFC Statement

I took it down as soon as I read it...while some might appreciate the wry attempt at humor, with so many people on edge right now, this was not the time nor the place for something "official" looking.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:58 PM
Re: Special HFC Statement

Agree, Time for jokes is past.
Now is the time to put out good information and save lives.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 02:59 PM
Re: model shifts

Who is Joe Bastardi? The way people talk about him, he seems legendary, but I've never heard of him before this board....

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:02 PM
Re: Special HFC Statement

Sorry...did not mean to offend or scare anyone...was only meant as a somewhat lighted hearted look at everyone's frustration of where Ivan is going.

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:03 PM
Re: Special HFC Statement

Well, as I said, normally it would have been pretty funny (maybe you want to repost it in the comedy forum), but it had the "official" look and, while certainly tongue in cheek, it scared the everliving $h!+ out of me until I got the joke...

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:05 PM
Re: model shifts

Joe Bastardi is an Accuweather forecaster. I am not a fan (of Accuweather in general), and I'll leave it at that.

BillD
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:06 PM
Re: Special HFC Statement

I got a good laugh out of it.

Bill


Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:07 PM
Re: model shifts

He's the lead meterologist for Accu-Weather and one of the top hurricane guys.

SC Bill
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM
Re: model shifts

FINALLY! A question on here I can answer.

Joe Bastardi is a senior (the senior?) forecaster for Accuweather. He had a free site for a while that had very good analysis, sometimes somewhat off the wall, but often very accurate forecasting. I believe he NAILED Gaston this year, well before most others even had a hint it would appear. He often relies on "teleconnections" to storms/weather in the Pacific, but others on here (HankFrank?) can explain that, I can't. Anyway, he went to "pay per view" some time ago.


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM
Landfall?

Looks like Ivan will clip the far west end of Cuba. Will that be considered the firstl landfall? What's that area like...much population?

lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM
Re: model shifts

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/promotional.asp?type=jb_where

Just about everything you'd want to know about Joe B. I think he was a wrestler, hence some folks call him
"the muscled one"


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:08 PM
Re: model shifts

I agree with that to. It could definietly go to the east part of the cone.

GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:10 PM
Re: model shifts

That is right only about 10% of the time.. Just opinion...not actuall #'s

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:12 PM
Re: Landfall?

I don't know about population, but they will be in the eastern eyewall.

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:13 PM
Early Afternoon thoughts...

So far, the forecast is panning out just about as we expected here in my weather office...the turn is slighly sharper than I first thought, but in the end it should be about right regardless.

One thing to remember as you look at 12z model data. DON'T. The models initialized with a WNW motion, but he made the turn to the NW or NNW about the time of the runs, so the models are all a bit (or a lot) too far west right now. Stacy caught this, and will probably expand upon it at 5.

I see no reason to change my forecast philosophy or reasoning and am now going to call for a landfall, near or (more likely) in my viewing area, just slightly west of Panama City, early Thursday (time to hang my hat on something...I have hedged long enough).


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:13 PM
TAMPA BAY DISCUSSION

This is an excerpt from 2PM Tampa Bay discussion:

BUT AS LONG AS IVAN REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR LATITUDE IT REMAINS A
THREAT TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ALL AREAS MUST REMAIN
ALERT TO ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK AS IT WOULD HAVE
A DIRECT EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. IF THE STORM TRACKS 100 MILES EAST OR WEST OF THE CURRENT
PROJECTED TRACK...IT WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST.


Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:13 PM
Re: Landfall?

If I remeber correctly the western end of Coo-ba is not as densely populated as the central part of the island. Mostly tobacco farms in that end...And they were evacated to Havana I think on Saturday or yesterday.

So this may make the stogies from Habana a bit more expensive as well...


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:14 PM
Re: Landfall?

Second landfall--the first was in Grenada (the eye went right over it)

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:14 PM
Re: model shifts

Thanks... so maybe I should be slightly concerned about his mouth if the Miss. prediction.... hhmm.... Ok, next question. Can someone give me a link to a full-color pressure map that shows all of the isobars for the highs and lows. I found one on another thread and cannot find it for the life of me. I am curious to where the low center in the GOM is and the high center in the two ridges actually are....

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:15 PM
Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

875
URNT12 KNHC 131906
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/18:46:40Z
B. 20 deg 57 min N
084 deg 38 min W
C. NA mb 2342 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 120 deg 157 kt
G. 026 deg 016 nm
H. EXTRAP 915 mb
I. 8 C/ 3054 m
J. 18 C/ 3051 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C28
N. 12345/07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 WXWXA 040913IVAN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 157 KT NE QUAD 18:42:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

Well, if there's good news, it seems the pressure might have stopped dropping. Overall, his satellite presentation remains excellent. Convection appears to be refiring on the N and NW side...which had previously been supressed.

--Lou


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:17 PM
Re: model shifts

GFDL forecast model

this, as far as I know, may be as close as you can come to showing all of the isobars, but it is a bit complicated--there are two highs with a low in the middle, and the Gulf low is actually in the upper levels of the atmosphere


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:17 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

Some more lovely info to hold onto.......................

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
AND IT WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

Got this off of NHC special tropical statement.


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:18 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

What does a flightlevel of 157 kt translate to at the surface?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:19 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

Quote:

What does a flightlevel of 157 kt translate to at the surface?




http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php About 160mp/h


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:20 PM
Re: model shifts

JB is a great forecaster Mr.Spock. In regard to Ivan, his track remains NW and I keep on hearing that the NHC is on track. What are they talking about, Ivan maybe in the cone but he is heading in a different direction then predicted. I think Ivan will make landfall by New Orleans, I think Ivan will continue on it's NW course. In the longrange, I agree with JB on his area of devlopment of that wave. I know he tries to devlop almost everything out there but I think he's right this time, we'll see. No harm meant JB , that is if he does come to this website!

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:20 PM
Re: model shifts

Look at this link, especially the last 5 frames:

UHMET LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS

It might not be going due north, but if you catch the last 5 frames of it, it's more NNW than NW. At least that's what it looks like to me.

You can also see the bands of this storm reaching ALL the way into Daytona, Cocoa Beach and that rain band that was seen looks to me on this loop that it did indeed come from Ivan.

IMHO, I think we will see a gradual shift to the east with this track, over the next two days. It doesn't have to make landfall in Tampa to give us a whole load of problems. Also, the link that LoisCane posted does indeed show why Ivan may soon take that NNW/N track instead. It's telling that the west side of the storm seems to be getting a little sheared (if that's the right terminology) as it looks like it's getting pulled northward. It also looks like that trough/ridge/front coming down into Texas is stronger and faster than previously thought. I agree that the western tip of Cuba may be the first land Ivan actually hits since Grenada. I wouldn't look for a huge track shift, just a gradual one.

Feel free to correct me if I'm incorrect. Just be gentle, my nerves are frayed and I might cry.
But, I'm no Joe Bastardi.

Clarification on Elena: I posted too soon on the hard right into Central Florida. He pointed out the actual landfall which was NOT Central Florida, so I apologize for that error. I would have corrected it earlier, but my computer froze.


Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:21 PM
Re: New Vortex: 912mb

DMFischer,

You are correct in my opinion...


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:21 PM
Re: model shifts

Where I work (Kennedy Space Center) we have closed circuit; a limited suply of channles, including KSC TV and what I gather is KSC's weather TV. Anyway, one cool feature is a channel with sat images looped. It cahnges form local to a wider view etc. One shows Ivan with the forecast track super imposed over it (drawn as a line, not just forcasted points). Ivan apperas to be a bit to the right of the forecasted track.

I mentioned this same feature with Charlie back when he started trending more to the right. Was much easier to view on the tv than the pc.

A few more hours ofthis need to happen before its a real deviation of a track. But, it does appear to be more straight forward than a woble.


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:21 PM
Re: model shifts

I never said anything about J.B. I said Accuweather.

Quote:

Joe Bastardi is an Accuweather forecaster. I am not a fan (of Accuweather in general), and I'll leave it at that.




edited to add quote


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:22 PM
Re: model shifts

I wish someone could anwer whether that wa a new Bastardi forecast after the turn occurred, or before the turn. Contrary to some on here, I find him very accurate. He will miss a few, but most of the time, he is dead on. If he has a bias, it is to either 1. turn storms too much (i.e. Frances) or 2. try to take them to Texas. He also has a tendency to give worst case scenarios, but rarely actually predicts them. In my opinion, he is much better with long term forecasts and pattern eveolvement, but I will still listen to what he has to say.

Long story short, if this was post turn forecast, there has to be a good explanation for him continuing to forecast the more westward track.

Sorry for rambling on.


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:23 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

One thing to remember, the fixes from recon can have an error of up to 2 miles, and they MAY not have hit the exact center (in fact, I think they missed it) so don't read too much into the 915 pressure reading.

Mozart
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:25 PM
Attachment
Re: New Vortex: 912mb

Quote:

Its still heading NW I dont think NNW yet. Also Mozart you said that the outer bands were going thru Cocoa??? NOT!!!!!!!!! That has nothing todo with IVAN. Ivans farthest outer bands are moving thru the Keys and extreme sw florida.




Thanks for calling me out on that one. I appreciate your welcoming me to the board.

So, what do you call those little rain showers spinning off of Ivan going through Central Florida in the picture I attached?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:26 PM
Re: Early Afternoon thoughts...

Jason,
i was just up there to visit family when we evacuated from here in Indialantic for Frances and I had my brother turn your forecast on so I could see it since I've read so many of your posts on here the last couple of years. You called Frances right and unfortunately it looks like you might be calling Ivan right. i hope your wrong this time for everyones sake in that region. Anyhow, Your forecast, when I was there, was really good, really informative and you had a way of explaining complicated stuff so that us guys that don't know much could understand it. I think in situations like this, i.e. Frances, Ivan... a TV weather forecaster need to convey something that gives the people watching confidence in what is being said and you do that. My prayers are with you guys.


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:29 PM
Re: Early Afternoon thoughts...

Thanks for the kind words Rich....I'd rather be wrong on this one, but we will have to see...

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:30 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

The recon also said it was extrapolated. Doesn't that mean they didn't get a dead-on reading, just calculated it based on other data they gathered?

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:30 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

That "trough" that someone said is stretched across central Florida isn't really the trough at all. You can clearly see the boundary between the high pressure system to the west and the trough setup north of Florida. As of right now it appears Ivan will continue the WNW motion until it's even with about Beacon Hill/Apalachicola(around 85W), then it will track north from there. It has passed well west of the Isle of Youth, and will probably scrape the very western end of Cuba.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:31 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

more on the new disturbance from the 13:35 South Florida Forecast Discussion:

A NEWLY DEVELOPED DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THIS
MORNING IS FORECASTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND COULD BE
IN THE AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BECAUSE IS SO FAR AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA...PLAN ON NOT CHANGING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS DISTURBANCE.


If this disturbance moves NW as quickly as it sounds like it will, could it have an effect on Ivan or will he be far enough north by then? hmm...


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:31 PM
Re: model shifts

Colleen: that is a WV loop and it may not give a true representation of the actual movement of the center; HOWEVER having said that the DVORAK does confirm at least two hours of more northerly, almost NNW movements.
What the wv suggests is an alignment of the moisture to support a more northerly motion. someone else suggested that earlier.
Too early to say this is a trend lets see again in an hour or so,


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:33 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

Think I'm going to ask Mike to make a new forum (or 3):

The Stacy Stewart Fan Club

The JB Fan/Foe Club

The Jason Kelley Fan Club

Seriously, though, JK's been pretty spot on with Ivan the whole way, and unfortunately for him, Coop, Andy1Tom and others, this one may be WAY too close to home...

Godspeed PCB.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:34 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

It is not moving WNW now but NW to maybe even NNW

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:35 PM
Re: model shifts

Thanks...I keep forgetting about the difference in WV loops and such. Information overload, know what I mean?

I think I'm going to take a nap. Short on sleep, short on patience and definitely in need of a break from loops.


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:35 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

Can anyone confirm that watches will be issued at 4pm for the cental gulf coast?

Our eas just went off for this

HURRICANE IVAN HAS GENERATED A SERIES OF LARGE SWELLS OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. OFFSHORE WEATHER BUOYS SHOW LARGE
SWELLS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF 27 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE...TRAVELING
NORTHWARD AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. AS A RESULT LARGE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE COASTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATER THIS EVENING.


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:36 PM
New Tropical Depression

First advisory at 5PM. Could this throw a wrench in the IVan sweepstakes??? Could this pump up the ridge east of FL and force Ivan back more westerly???

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:36 PM
New Disturbance

Quote:


...AND COULD BE
IN THE AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.




Geee...looking at the model runs for this new system, I thought it looked like a threat to Puerto Rico, but then looked likely to turn out to sea....

--Lou


mlamay
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM
Re: model shifts

I definitely think you are right it looks like almost a due North movement. I believe we will see a track shift back to the East at 5p.m. My forcast will put Ivan on land E of Tallahassee on Thursday a.m.

I just can't see New Orleans being hit with this one especially just seeing the UKMET loop.


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

Doesn't seem like it would take much more N motion. to be quite a problem for the Keys, esp. since they're on the east side of the storm. I hope those people aren't coming back to soon.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM
TD11

11L.NONAME

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:37 PM
Re: New Tropical Depression

New thread around 5, much shorter than the current one.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:40 PM
Re: model shifts

Jason or Clark might want to agree or disagree with this but the showers over the central florida area are NOT from the outer bands of IVAN. They are from a couple different factors such as daytime heating, easterly flow of moisture from the atlantic, and troughiness over the eastern gulf. The outer bands of Ivan are in the keys and extreme southwestern florida.
I also now note a jog to the NNW,, if this turn continues and to the N during the evening then watches and area impact might move further east. Just matters on how much of the digging of the trough comes into the eastern gulf,,,,The strong trough over the rockies is pushing the ridge over Texas and the western gulf alittle more insueing the trough to maybe come alittle more ese then expected eroding the ridge alittle more over the florida-bahamas area.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:41 PM
Re: New Disturbance

Keep an eye on it as that is how all the other major disturbances began...........I may just leave the shutters on longer.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:45 PM
Re: New Tropical Depression

outflow from Ivan could be harsh on this system.

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:49 PM
Re: model shifts

Local met (Bay News 9) just said bands from Ivan were moving up to and through central FL. He might be wrong, but that's what he said.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:49 PM
Re: New Tropical Depression

The latest HPC track has the new TD going across S. Florida and into the Gulf...no rest for the weary:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:50 PM
Attachment
accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

accuwx' forecast differs from NHC considerably...click on the attachment...straight up into Mobile Bay!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:50 PM
Re: New Tropical Depression

Would the outflow produce shear?

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:53 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

I notice they have the high still squarely over FL. Didn't someone say it was eroding a little more than anticipated?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:53 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Where is Rick and his boat anyway?

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:54 PM
Re: model shifts

These aren't reall "bands" the first of such is down around the keys, but clearly the moisture associated with IVAN has traversed up into the Tampa area and the showers are moving in association with the general SE flow around IVAN

rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 03:58 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Hey, if it hits here..I've got insurance. Just got back from Nashville, delivering a Mercedes...and now I gotta do something with this boat. Here's what I'll do...double line the boat on all sides....throw some more bumpers on the sides....and come back to see what's left. My neighbor and his wife took off up the Mobile River about 20 miles...and are gonna tie up to some cypress trees and all..then abandon ship..and see if it is still there...after Ivan comes calling.

If it hits Mobile as a cat 4-5....nothing I do to prepare will help...the storm surge would be 20'...and that with the winds..oh well...

just looking at the loops.....just slightly north of nw...definitely not a trend to nnw...but once it starts heading due north...anyone west of that is safe...


Thunder
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:00 PM
Re: model shifts

Has J. Cantore repositioned himself to get right in the path yet? I know he had to have split from down south.

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:02 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Just out of curiousity, since you've been thru a III...if Ivan hits to your East (lets say for arguments' sake, PCB) as a III or IV, how bad would it be for your boat? I know a hit to your west could be catastrophic.

Stay safe.


mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:02 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

IS THAT FOR REAL ??? HOW MUCH STOCK SHOULD I PUT IN THAT PREDICTION ?? All this talk about the forcast shifting back to the east, I was starting to think we were out of the woods. (sorta)

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:02 PM
New Direction for Ivan.. new tropical depression?

Think its very probable that they will change the heading to NNW at 5 and the discussion should be very interesting .. depending on who is writing it.

Aren't really any words on how this is playing out live and hoping to read good discussion tonight here when everyone gets done with work and is up to speed and sure that what Ivan looks to be doing isn't a short term trend.

No words.. really.
None at all. Not by me.

And... btw ... Stewart doesn't bring things up for no reason. He is one of the best there is and if he brings it up it is for one very good reason. He isn't one to speculate. Imply yeah.. speculate no.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:04 PM
Re: model shifts

Quote:

Has J. Cantore repositioned himself to get right in the path yet? I know he had to have split from down south.




He's in Panama City (he just came on TWC). They commented that he looks like he'll be in the path of the storm.... so, I guess he's where he wants to be...


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:05 PM
Attachment
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

It's for real...I wouldn't post it if it weren't.

This attachment shows accuwx predicted path contrasted with NHC. Quite a bit of disagreement...


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:05 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Mobile is probably safe, but not completely out of the woods. Ivan has wobbled NNW the last hour or two, but should begin moving NW again soon. As Rick on Boat said, once it starts moving due north (not wobbles, but extended movement) if you are west of there you are safe.

That said, again I pose the question...Could the new developing depression pump up the ridge east of Ivan and force him back west?


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:05 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...back down to 912mb

323
URNT12 KNHC 131954
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/19:32:40Z
B. 21 deg 03 min N
084 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2346 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 335 deg 124 kt
G. 235 deg 015 nm
H. 912 mb
I. 10 C/ 3355 m
J. 18 C/ 3341 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 WXWXA 040913IVAN OB 14
MAX FL WIND 157 KT NE QUAD 18:42:00 Z


Looks like Mr Jason Kelley was right (as usual ) The latest recon fix has the pressure back down to 912mb (not an extrapolated estimate either. Ivan is definitely not weakening.
Also, notice that the 1747Z recon fix had the center at 20.53N, 84.41W.....this latest fix is at 21.03N, 84.44W.....a north movement of 10 minutes, with just a 3 minute westward motion. Ivan is moving NNW-N.
--Lou


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:05 PM
Re: model shifts

panama city beach

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:07 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Quote:

It's for real...I wouldn't post it if it weren't.

This attachment shows accuwx predicted path contrasted with NHC. Quite a bit of disagreement...




Help me to understand what you are saying about a disagreement.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:08 PM
Re: model shifts

He's in Panama City now.

dani


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:08 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Same path, just delayed NE turn. I could see that happening for sure.

I don't think they will change the movement to NNW based on just a couple of hours of movement. They usually go with 6-9 hour trends. In that time frame, it is solidly NW.


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:09 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

You need to click on the "attachment" located below the header. accuwx stuff is proprietary, so I dare not post the image here (plus it eats up bandwidth).

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:10 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

"should begin a NW track"
Why?


FireAng85
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:10 PM
Re: model shifts

yes, I just saw Jim Cantore in Panama City Beach.

mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:10 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

I'll take the NHC's please !!

Thunder
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:11 PM
Re: model shifts

Quote:

Quote:

Has J. Cantore repositioned himself to get right in the path yet? I know he had to have split from down south.




He's in Panama City (he just came on TWC). They commented that he looks like he'll be in the path of the storm.... so, I guess he's where he wants to be...




Well, I reckon he is in hog heaven.


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:12 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Should not have read that way...sorry. Should continue the NW track. As I don't beleive this was a true change of direction, but simply a jog.

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:17 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Quote:

I don't think they will change the movement to NNW based on just a couple of hours of movement. They usually go with 6-9 hour trends. In that time frame, it is solidly NW.




I agree with you that they probably won't change the motion in the official track. That being said, it really doesn't matter what they change it to, those are just words. The numbers from the last 2 recon's back up the NNW movement, so it's not fatigued eyes trying to follow sat loops on the computer. I actually like to watch TWC because they sometimes show a loop where they draw a white line following the eye. It's much easier to see the pattern that way. Hey...maybe I could draw on my computer screen with an erasable marker??? Now that's an idea Well, now I know I've been watching this thing too long.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:21 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

thanks...I hope you are right for the folks on the west coast sake...but other sat images I have reviewed seem to indicate it could be more NNW...it is feeling that short wave trough in the central gulf coast and the general W to E push of the ridge coming off the TEX coast.

Kdubs
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:24 PM
Re: Another Vortex Message...up to 915mb

"The word "EXTRAP" precedes any pressures extrapolated from aircraft sensor information; if the word "EXTRAP" is not there, it means the pressure was measured directly by a dropsonde released from the aircraft..."

Hope that answers your question.


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:24 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

just checked the high speed floater, and it appears in the last two frames to have gone back NW again. Now that could be fatigue, but that's what I see. Besides, as I said earlier, They have forecast a NNW track most of the way. It was only supposed to go NW for a little while.

I know that it could make a big difference in the final destination, but I'm not convinced it was anything more than a wobble right.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:25 PM
asking again re: speed

Has Ivan speeded up his forward motion ...or is it my tired eyes?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:27 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Maybe someone can explain this to me. Many on here are talking about a more easterly shift and yet I look at the models on weatherundreground, which is easy for a layman like myself, and they have continued to shift west run after run it seems. Even the BAMM which shows that abrupt turn to the east has basically shifted west. I think some people are just reading too much into every miicrometer of movement this thing makes. I don't think the NHC does that. When I read Jason, or any of the other people on here who "really" knows, saying that there is going to be a more easterly shift then I might start to believe it. Then again, the NHC could come out at 5pm and have it shifted to the right for all I know.Just a surfer/weatherlayman's thoughts. i have family up there and I'm really concerned for them to say the least.

St. David
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:30 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

looks like it may have been just a wobble to the north. this thing could still go anywhere! Everyone watch this thing until it hits the mainland! I still say land fall around alabama on thursday about 3pm.

Kimmie
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:30 PM
Can New Orleanians offer up a sigh of relief?

Do believe the long awaited NW turn has begun. I know lots of people in the crescent city who are well on their way to panicking! Won't know for sure for a few hours if this is the real turn. I am thinking Mobile Bay! Rick and others from that area may be under the gun in 48 - 72 hours! Have you guys noticed the size of this monster! It is just as, if not bigger than, his sister, Frances! Has anyone heard how Grand Cayman faired?

Kimmie


meto
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:31 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

it is not a jog, twc just showed latest and it is now more north....

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:33 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

The models on that site are old. Some were run yesterday. Also, I think Jason Kelley said to disregard the earlier models today since they were initialized when Ivan was still moving WNW, so they are inaccurate.

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:33 PM
Re: Can New Orleanians offer up a sigh of relief?

Kimmie,

cayman reports


Mozart
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:33 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Richiesurfs,
I think that easterly shift is being driven by a comment made in the 11 am discussion regarding a low over Tennessee. Lots of speculation about exactly why that comment was in there and what did it mean. Not just on this board, either. I've seen it mentioned on another one as well with exactly the same implications.


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:34 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Showed latest what????? It will show it further north..It did move north for an hour or two, but I beleive it was temporary. Look at the last few frames. looks to be more NW again.

Again, each wobble right will throw the track off unless offset by a wobble right.


AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:34 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Quote:

I think some people are just reading too much into every miicrometer of movement this thing makes. I don't think the NHC does that.




Richie that statement couldn't be any more truthful. The mantra that everyone should remember is "the trend is your friend". One wobble here or there does not make a trend, and shouldn't be dubbed one. Obviously if it continues for hours then it should be evaluated, and if a change in forecast path needs to be made then so be it. Ivan has already made some good sized "wobbles", one of them sparing Jamaica a direct hit, and I'm sure it will continue to do so. BTW-the gulf is looking good for some nice surf tomorrow.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:36 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Richie, you are right about 1 thing. Wait until someone who knows (NHC) to tell you the track has shifted. Too many people on here want to buck the trend and say its just a wobble or its heading for this place or that. That way they can say they were right and that they are a Hurricane expert. The fact is nobody knows where this thing is going right now. Until it is North of your Lat. there is always a chance.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:38 PM
Cedar Key

Okay so TWC J. Sidel mentioning that it could still hook right and hit tampa? How realisitic is that?

Dani


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:38 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

The GFDL, UKMET, and GFS were run at 8am this morning. The BAMM was run at 2pm this afternoon.The NOGAPS is from 8pm last night and it has consistently been west. Thats not that old.for any of them except maybe the NOGAPS. i believe Jason has said he feels it is coming up to his area basically. I hope he's wrong because I have family there but i sure don't want to see this hit anyone.

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:41 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Fletch,

Welcome to the boards...however, before making a statement like you just made, it might behoove you to go back and read some of the older material.

This board is professionally run, and most people are here to exchange information. With a very few notable exceptions , no one ever claims to be an expert, especially the several mets who post here.

Enjoy the forums and we welcome your constructive input!

Cheers


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:42 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

I agree... but I thought the way that the dicussion was written Stewart said their forecasted track was to the right of the model guidance so I took that to mean that they had already factored that in. 5pm should be interesting

rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:42 PM
anyone wanna know what 160 mph wind feels like?

Driving back from Nashville, I stuck my arm out at 90 MPH...and tried to hold it...no problem...but it was really something...then I thought about what 160 might be like...woulda tore my arm OFF...

In answer to LI Phil's question..if it goes east, I will not worry much...the marina and my boat can handle cat 1-2 storms. However...

from mid cat 3 and above, the exponential energy and devastation makes the prudent person bid a farewell, and leave.

I would stay in a well built house during a 3...but anything greater than that is a real test of your nerves....plus..I haven't experienced any hurricane past a strong 3...


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:44 PM
Thomas at midday

At 12:15 pm EDT it looks like Hurricane Ivan is finally on a NW track that will probably graze the western end of Cuba.

What do I think? No change here. I'm pretty sure that I'm the only Meteorologist that does not buy the westward track between New Orleans and Pensacola. I still predict a landfall between Apalachicola and Cedar Key. And if you read the 11:00 am EDT NHC/TPC forecast discussion on Ivan you can see that they realize a much further east landfall track is still possible.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL


ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:48 PM
Re: Thomas at midday

323
URNT12 KNHC 131954
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/19:32:40Z
B. 21 deg 03 min N
084 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2346 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 335 deg 124 kt
G. 235 deg 015 nm
H. 912 mb
I. 10 C/ 3355 m
J. 18 C/ 3341 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 WXWXA 040913IVAN OB 14
MAX FL WIND 157 KT NE QUAD 18:42:00 Z

Down to 912 MB


tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:49 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Quote:

The GFDL, UKMET, and GFS were run at 8am this morning. The BAMM was run at 2pm this afternoon.The NOGAPS is from 8pm last night and it has consistently been west. Thats not that old.for any of them except maybe the NOGAPS. i believe Jason has said he feels it is coming up to his area basically. I hope he's wrong because I have family there but i sure don't want to see this hit anyone.
Quote:

One thing to remember as you look at 12z model data. DON'T. The models initialized with a WNW motion, but he made the turn to the NW or NNW about the time of the runs, so the models are all a bit (or a lot) too far west right now. --------------------
Jason Kelley
Chief Meteorologist
WJHG-TV, Panama City Beach, FL









I'm not disagreeing with the landfall, I'm merely saying that the models on weather underground are inaccurate since they were run with the wrong initial motion. I understand your worry, I have family in Mobile so I'm a bit worried as well, but I'm just waiting for the 5pm update to see their take on it.


jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:50 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Conehead Alert. South Florida int he cone again. Isnt this a blast.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_5day.html


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:51 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

I agree the gulf is going to get some awesome surf from this thing. I have friends who are driving over there (west coast) tomorrow to get some of it. It's kinda funny though ...when I was younger all I cared about was the surf but now, while I still want the waves from them, it's kinda hard to get fired up about something that is going to potentially screw alot of people up especially family...just comes with getting older i guess.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:52 PM
NNW

Officially NNW at 5 pm.

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:53 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Quote:

Fletch,

Welcome to the boards...however, before making a statement like you just made, it might behoove you to go back and read some of the older material.

This board is professionally run, and most people are here to exchange information. With a very few notable exceptions , no one ever claims to be an expert, especially the several mets who post here.

Enjoy the forums and we welcome your constructive input!

Cheers




Sorry. Certainly didn't intend on trashing the forum. I have been reading this forum through the 04 season. I think you guys do a great job monitoring and editing when nec. For the most part, the information here is exc. The fact that so many true experts participate, really says something. My statement was meant to say "wait for a trend". We all spend "too" much of our time looking at loops and data. Sometimes, when the storms get close, our emotions confuse our eyes and brains. Keep up the good work!!


Lisa NC
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:53 PM
Re: NNW

New thred started

Mozart
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:54 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

These tracks are getting scary:
Charley=Ivan
Jeanne=Frances

I'm getting Deja Vu all over again...


meto
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:55 PM
Re: Thomas at midday

twc draws a line on latest sat. pics the latest show a n. maybe nne track. just look.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:55 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

Thats why he still thinks its coming in there and not Miss/lousiana which those runs are kinda showing...ok

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:56 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

I still think Ivan will miss the peninsula, but not by much--it now appears by looking at satellite and WV images that the landfall could be just west of Cedar Key

as for not-so-soon-to-be Jeanne (if it isnt sheared to a wave before strengthening), it will not exceed Cat I if it hits the state at all


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 04:56 PM
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away

THE ANGLE IS CLOSER TO 320-325 FOR ABOUT TWO HOURS...but the dir in the 5pm will remain NW...if that dir continues until 8p. then we can expect a change. What's significant about it is that it would show stronger than predicted influences of weather systems to its north and west.
Fletch if you want to rely only on the NHC that is very good advice, nobody here is attempting to replace the NHC. But we are engaging in some educated speculation. When you have hung around this board for 4-5 years as I have you'll see that some of the opinions expressed here actually precede what NHC actually goes public with by several hours, not because it's not occurring and they don't see it but because they have public responsibilities that we here don't have. This is a private board and we engage in private discussion for the edification and entertainment of the users.


Sadie
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 13 2004 05:44 PM
Re: Back to the Keys??

I gotta say this. Panic is never productive and that is what I have seen this season, PANIC. I wrote "Disaster Planning for Country Property" in conjunction with the American Red Cross and EOC's across the state after Andrew and I know what I'm talking about. I'm a horse trainer and a few days ago I was getting calls from people I didn't even know who were bouncing off the walls. Where can I take my horses? Where can I borrow a horse trailer, etc, etc. For instance, a friend left for Tallahassee on Thursday with his prize APHA stallion. Wonder where he is now?! We all need to have a DISASTER PLAN prepared every spring. And we need to keep our heads. That doesn't mean we disrespect these storms, far from it. But three days ahead of the storm is not the time to try to accomplish what we should have done in May. It means we use our heads and don't run around like a bunch of cockroaches when somebody turns on the light. Am I sick of implementing my disaster plan? You bet. But Charlie went right over my head as a Cat 4 and 16 horses and I are alive and unhurt. Do I want to go thru that kind of experience again? Not in this life. But we simply must learn, for example, that storm shutters are not something to think about aquiring in August with a Cat 5 bearing down on us. They should be cut and ready to hang. I'm not trying to scold anyone, only to trying to get folks (like me) who choose to live were they are vulnerable to these storms to understand they are a fact of life and we have to BE PREPARED.

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Sep 13 2004 05:47 PM
NEW THREAD!

Mike threw up a new thread almost an hour ago...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 13 2004 09:14 PM
Re: NEW THREAD!

Quote:

Mike threw up a new thread almost an hour ago...




I was reading the comments all day and had to take a break. Can you tell me where we stand now? I am just really worried for the people in the keys. I have friends there and also in Tampa. This thing could do anyting right now. Is Cuba going to get hit?



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