MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:08 AM
Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

2PM EDT Update
Hurricane Ivan is holding as a Category 4 storm, and the eye is roughly 40 miles wide now. Intensity is expected to fluctuate and go down a little bit more, the track remains the same.

Jeanne has strengthened a bit this morning, recon has found winds around 50MPH as it approaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It has the chance to strengthen a bit more as time goes on. Good luck to those in Puerto Rico like CyclonEye (s2k) and others.

Original Update
Hurricane Ivan has gone through weakening this morning, with pressures rising and windspeed falling. Ivan's windspeed at 11AM (EDT) was 140MPH, but according to the National Hurricane Center it actually may be slightly less as they were still waiting on a few more recon reports at the time of the advisory.

Errors may be large in this track, folks in the Hurricane Watch area must prepare.



The track remains very similar to the last one this morning so there are no changes there--maybe a little more west. It projects Landfall near the Alabama, Nississippi border, and it looks fairly solid. (Athough all the areas in the Hurricane watch need to prepare, storms are fickle)


(Track Map Thanks to Skeetobite)
Ivan is forecast to weaken some more, but before it arrives it land it will go over a warm eddy in the Gulf and have a chance to restrengthen a bit. Ivan will likely still be a major Hurricane when it makes landfall.

Jeanne is a minimal Tropical Storm over the leeward islands in the Caribbean, Tropical storm warnings are up for other islands in the area. a windy, rainy event for them. After that, models trend it northwest but East of the Bahamas. Not sure on it yet. Time to watch later.

More to come later.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orelans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop

** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.

Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use

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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Buoy Reports from a buoy near Ivan
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:17 AM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Is it me or is Ivans track moving further west with every update? Will the NHC eventually put landfall on New Orleans?
I will admit I do not know much about 'canes. Twisters are more of my thing.


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:18 AM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Morning all...thanks for the new thread Mike.

Mike's update says it all, so just a couple of quick thoughts. If the NHC track verifies...it's not going to be good news for Mobile...JB's been opining that a strong CAT III or IV (possible) making a strike just west of the Bay would have a similar effect to the 1938 storm that pushed 20' of water into downtown Providence...yeesh. Rick...MBFly...and anyone else in that area better get the hell out of there now! Be interesting to see if the USS Alabama is still there Thursday afternoon.

Another troubling aspect of this storm is the potential for inland flooding. Latest NHC 5 day shows VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT for days 4 & 5, essentially stalling out over the Tennessee Valley. Inland folks will be getting pummeled with heavy, drenching rains...maybe even ala Camille. This one is going into the record books for sure, and has the potential to affect millions upon millions of people.

JB also has opined that NO is by no means out of the woods, so the folks there had also better be sure to keep their eyes on this one...

Despite everyone's best efforts, there's still no way to nail down a landfall or an intensity...the endgame will be interesting for sure.

Everybody on the GOM you be safe and LEAVE EARLY if you're within the cone!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:27 AM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Just a question that has been nagging me for years. What happens if we have more storms that names assigned for the year? Has this ever happened and where do they get names after the alphabet is gone?

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:37 AM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

I just realized you could superimpose forecast points showing future track and category...pretty neat feature.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:43 AM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

i'm finally off to work after missing almost 2 weeks. Still got a mess in my yard but I know it could have been much worse. Mike, Phil, Mr Spock, Jason, Clarke, and everyone else I didn't mention who contributes so much to this site...Just wanted to say THANKS!!! Now my bro up in the panhandle is hooked on reading it after I was there. Heres praying that TS Jeanne stays out in the Atlantic, hurts no one, and produces awesome surf. Thats what these storms are supposed to do...right?I'm praying for the entire region that might get affected by Ivan. Gotta go shape some surfboards now....finally!

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:44 AM
Post From Colleen from the previous thread

Normally I don't do this, but Colleen put considerable time and energy into this post...

If anyone looked at the picture they just showed on the Weather Channel, it certainly looked to be going NORTH at THAT PRECISE MOMENT IN TIME.
People are allowed to say what they see, and I don't think that meto was "wishcasting" anything.
As far as the storm not turning, at this point, I think that the NHC is becoming more confident in it's track and I do not think that Ivan will make a hard right and turn into Tampa Bay. That being said, today is Tuesday, landfall is supposed to occur around Thursday. That's 2 days away. I believe with Frances 2 days out they were forecasting it to possibly move up the coast of the Carolinas, and even some people here were agreeing with that forecast. The bottom line is this: Frances turned, Charley turned. When did they turn? Charley turned about 4 hours before he was supposed to hit Tampa. Frances turned and kept everyone on their toes for about 12 hours. I don't think it was until she almost made landfall that they were able to nail the precise place. Two days out, a little shove to the north, maybe a little bit of of turn to the east and the forecast changes again for a whole lot of people. I'm not say this is going to happen, I'm saying it's POSSIBLE. Hopefully, the models have a good handle on this thing right now and we're only 2 days away so I don't see a huge track shift coming in the future.
Tarpon---this is kind of ironic, but you posted about Dennis Phillips and how irresponsible his comments were last night. I watched him and he said "IF THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES, AND IT COULD BE JUST A JOG, THEN I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT". He was correct about the models not getting the new info because it had just started that trend. At 5:15pm, only two of the models had the new info and they DID swing it to the right. However, if you listened to him during the following hours, he corrected himself many times, as he was doing updates every 1/2 hour. I was watching the game and I saw him. At 12:something, he said it WAS JUST A JOG. I don't think he was being irresponsible. The reason I say it is ironic is because when I was on him about Frances, you were defending him as being one of the best out there. Go figure. Just like us, he saw the northward movement, too. Then it moved again to the NW.

I think all Floridians are a little uncomfortable and testy right now. We've been on STORM ALERT mode for over a month. Nerves are frayed, tempers are flaring and these things bring out the best and worst of us. We need to try and remember that when posting to one another. We're all in the same boat. I know I said a lot of prayers last night asking that this storm comes in well below a Cat 5 because after seeing two come directly over me, a Cat 1 isn't any fun either.

--------------------
Colleen A.

GO LIGHTNING!!!


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:47 AM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Phil, you must be tired. I've been trying to tell you that for 3 days, ROFLOL!
Of course, as luck would have it, I just wrote a longgggg post and now we have a new thread. I'll back and copy and paste it here. Colleen ---------> smacks self upside head.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:48 AM
Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread

Thanks, Phil. You just saved me a double post. You rock!

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Thank you for the kind words. I just wish this weren't going to have such a bad impact on so many.
That's a wishcast I think we all would like to make.

Edited for bad sentence structure! LOL


Lisa NC
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

That flooding is going to be the problem for me because I live in the western part of NC. With Frances we got some rain, but this looks like a stall and the ground is already wet. Some of the models have had the slow movement or stall for the last couple of days. I do hope that is off also!!!!

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 11:52 AM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Colleen...just wanted to say that I left your name off my little list of who I was thanking. Your contirbutions are awesome and I should have included you. I feel you're alot like me. we are lay persons and we don't always contribute on a technical level but still have a good grasp of whats going on. By the way...I think you know alot more than me. Anyhow, just wanted to put that out there.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 PM
Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread

(Off topic post removed by moderator).

Looks like it's time for lockdown, Mike.


tpratch
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:02 PM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Quote:

Be interesting to see if the USS Alabama is still there Thursday afternoon.




Sorry, but my money's on the Alabama.

At least one of the South Dakota/Iowa class battleships survived through a typhoon that sank several destroyers. Granted, the Alabama is moored, sunk 20 feet into the sea bed and therefore not quite as likely to be pointing in the best direction, but it's ~35,000 tons unladen. Add a few million gallons of water to her and she'll sit and laugh (although the rigging and superstructure might be in jeopardy).

So Jeanne is finally named - she going to scare the fishes, or should Florida really be worried?

Thoughts?


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06 PM
Tampa Bay NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

This is from 5:27am this morning:

Quote:

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141900-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
527 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

HURRICANE IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. ITS OUTER FRINGES WILL INFLUENCE THE AREAS WEATHER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS LATEST TRACK IS PPROXIMATELY 350 MILES WEST OF THE AREAS COAST LINE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN WILL PRODUCE BANDS OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS MAY PRODUCE ROTATION IN SOME STRONGER CELLS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. WITH A LARGE SLOW MOVING HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AREA TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. IVAN IS ALSO GENERATING LARGE SWELLS OF OVER 12 FEET THAT
WILL BRING HIGH SURF AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES TO AREA BEACHES CREATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL.




As you can see, the Tampa Bay area does not have to be in the cone to get bad weather. I remember when George was off of our coast by 100 miles, Lakeland saw more tornadoes and rain than I've seen with Charley OR Frances.

Make sure you pay attention not to just where the hurricane will make landfall, but points to the NE of it, as that is where the worst weather is right now. Most of us have seen torrential rains for the last month, and flooding is a huge concern for the little creeks and rivers all around us. As I type this, it's beginning to rain. It also feels like someone just threw a wet blanket over my head it's so tropical. A nice breeze coming in, too.


Cane Watcher
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:09 PM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

On twc last night, Dr. Lyons mentioned gravity waves coming from the storm? Can anyone explain??

meto
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 PM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

i dont wishcast storms, we are allowed to state our views here. i went thru major hurricanes in miami area in 60's. some people need to calm down. and talk about the hurricanes and not others. thanx

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:13 PM
Gravity Waves

gravity waves

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:15 PM
Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread

So your itching to get some action tampa joe. Let me tell you that you want no action. I was 8 in 1964 when cleo blew thru miami and road 2 canes out at sea while in navy in pacific and you no part of this storm. I have been watching this site for weeks and its people like Colleen that make it work. She might not be a met but she knows her stuff and doesnt need people like you making comments like that. This site is about hurricanes please keep it that way.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 PM
Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread


2nd time I've had to do that this week. (Re tampajoe)

Feel free to Disagree with folks, but please don't post personal attacks on anyone. We removed it once and he posted another message.


Cane Watcher
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
Re: Gravity Waves

Thanks Phil. Keep up to good work. You guys are doing a great job.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Thanks richi...I think you may be too generous, LOL! I'm on the LI Phil Atkins Crow Diet as we speak! I sure as heck don't know what's gonna happen with Ivan, and I'm not even going to THINK about Jeanne yet. Hopefully, she'll be a fish-spinner. (Did we say that about Ivan???)

On another note, I want to ask a personal favor: for those of you who pray, could you include my sister? She's 7-months pregnant and just found out that she has Type II Gestational Diabetes. I know that there are ways to control it, but she is having other problems besides that have now made her a high-risk pregnancy. Been there, done that, it's no fun. Thanks!


meto
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:20 PM
Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread

rob, i was in miami too, in cleo, yu remember inez ans betsy too. some people on here like to criticize, and thats it...

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:21 PM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Meto, I apologize if you took what I wrote earlier as an insult to you. I'm sorry. Please believe me though, I'm totally calm about this and I also stated what I felt. I wasn't attacking you. I understand you're not wishcasting and I really wished this whole thing would be dropped now. Once again I apologize.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:22 PM
Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread

Been lurking here for the last week or so. 9wk old preemie baby & hurricanes have had me shakin in my shoes.. & i'm pretty much fearless. Thanks to all for such good stuff. I'll definetly make a donation for the new equipment.
keep it up !! God bless all


kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:24 PM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Of course I'll pray for your sister! My goodness, between my personal prayers, Ivan, and everyone on here that is requesting prayers for different reasons, I'm going to have to make a list out so I know not to miss anyone......LOL

BTW, I'm still calling a PCB landfall w/. error of 25 miles. However, w/. the system that I use, Mobile, Pascagoula, and Gulf Shores aren't in the clear by any means.


mlamay
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread

What are you alls thoughts on Jeanne? Do you think she is something to worry about here in Florida?

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Colleen, I will most defintely pray for her! I really pray that Ivan will continue weakening . I think the US as a whole has had enough catastrophic storms for this year! they may hit one place but they indirectly affect everyone.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread

i rember cleo well our walls in fla room i thought would come in. the others are vague to me. i guess at 8 you remember the only so much.

Mongo
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 PM
Re: Gravity Waves

Thanks for the link about gravity waves, Phil. I heard Steve Lyons mention that last night, too. The explanation on the web site was a wee bit over my head (by "wee" I mean "a whole lot"), but I think I've got the idea.

Am I correct in assuming that gravity waves happen all of the time, but it takes a combination of great power/energy and a very stable atmosphere to make it visible like in the satelite images yesterday?

As an aside, I've enjoyed learning from you all on this site for a for about a year now and am posting for the first time. Cane Watcher (the guy who asked the gravity waves question) clued me into this site during Isabel last year. Keep up the excellent work!

Brian


kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:31 PM
Re: Gravity Waves

Wow, is it just me or are people in the ATL area invading this site? Or maybe Floridians are invading Atlanta.............LOL

meto
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 PM
Re: Gravity Waves

think i heard jeanne is to turn more west while in the bahamas.

kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 PM
Re: Gravity Waves

wow, that's another warm and fuzzy feeling for FL

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 PM
Re: Gravity Waves

more west in the bahamas? At what latitude/Fl doesn't need any more threats for a loooonnnngggg time.

tpratch
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:42 PM
gestational diabetes

Sorry for the off-topic, but it's germane to Colleen's worries.

Colleen.

My wife went through gestational diabetes with our 3 kids. It's really not that bad.

As for the other risks, my wife and I have been pregnant 9 times. I know what that's like too. Faith and patience will see her through. We don't always know the whys, but things usually work out more than just fine (I'd post a picture of my 3 beautiful kids but then that would be wayyyy off topic).

Sorry for the off-topic nature, but Colleen sounded like she could use some reaffirmation here.


Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:43 PM
FL Threats

LI Phil...my suspicion is that Florida's luck has run out...beginining this year and during the remander of this decade.

Jeanne: I think it is too early to say anything about it...she could dissipate into the DR...or go out to sea.


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:43 PM
Jeanne turning West?

Hey, without a possible threat to Florida, What in the world are we going to disagree about on here.

Jeanne is forecast to move through the Bahama's.


meto
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 PM
Re: Gravity Waves

it is in 1100 discussion that models are keeping it west.

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 PM
Re: gestational diabetes

Guys, the sentiments are great and I'm sure everyone appreciates the kind thoughts...but

If you're registered...use the PM feature...the site is gonna get crazy and I don't wanna play policeman...I know I go off topic all the time but this is really serious now.

Thanks! You guys rock...


Daytonaman
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:45 PM
Re: Gravity Waves

Thanks for the link on gravity waves, Channel 2 out of Orlando commented on this feature as well last night. I was just watching the Goes E Visible Floater Loop and slowed it way down and noticed what I believe to be a slight N jog (you have taught me not to jump to soon but watch for trends so I am going to do that with this observation) RSO - RAMSDIS . Does anyone else see this. Thanks for this site as a newbie I have found it totally fascinating. I understand alot about Tornados and Thunderstorms from being a former weather spotter in Ohio but Hurricanes are a new weather phenom for me to learn about and many of you are GREAT TEACHERS....Thank you so much.
Bruce


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:47 PM
Atlanta

I think alot of people headed TO Atlanta to get away from this storm. As if traffic isn't bad enough there with the regulars, now they've got people who drive normally with 2 million who all think they're driving for NASCAR. My Suburban becomes a weapon as soon as I hit I-285. I've been known to make grown men cry coming down the ramp from I-285 to 85-N.
They THINK they aren't gonna move over, but I make THEM think TWICE.
I always win.


ddrehman
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:50 PM
Water vapor

Hello, could someone explain to me when I look on the water vapor satellite image the black and orange is the dry air? And how does this or will this effect Ivan, because from what I see it looks to be where they say Ivan will make landfall . Does this not have some effect on the steering of a hurricane? Thank you.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:51 PM
Re: Atlanta

Go Lightening...1 day until the NHL lockout

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:53 PM
Re: Gravity Waves

I think it's in between NNW and N. Great link, thanks!

Mozart
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:55 PM
Re: Atlanta

The weather forecasts on the local channels in ATL and here in Greenville are causing people to try and find out what's going on. That's why you're starting to see more "inlanders" around. We're being told to batten down the hatches for this one. Lots of talk about massive power outages in this area if we get the rain they're thinking over the weekend. Nothing but pine trees in soft, wet ground around here right now.

I can see the ASPLUNDH and Davey Tree Service trucks rolling down I-85 from my office window...wonder how many of them actually end up hanging in this area until the weekend.


kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:55 PM
Re: Atlanta

1. While driving in Atl, you should act as if you are driving for Nascar. When in doubt floor it. That's really funny that you drive that way. I do the same thing. My husband has named me Brass Balls when I'm behind the wheel.

2. If Atl does get a lot of the evacuees (sp?), they will be in for a rude awakeing. You think people in Fl freak about storms, it's nothing compaired to here. Even though we're only projected to get TS winds, Home Depot and Lowes will be out of plywood, batteries, etc. The grocerey stores will be out of bread, milk and eggs. You should see how people act up here when we're supposed to get 1/4 inch of snow.....LOL

3. Phil, do you think that Ivan will strengthen one more time before landfall?


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:56 PM
Re: FL Threats

Quote:

LI Phil...my suspicion is that Florida's luck has run out...beginining this year and during the remander of this decade.




Hopefully before anymore storms occur, building codes are tightened up some more in FL. Something especially needs to be done with trailer homes and manufactured homes, they are disaster waiting to happen down here. Miami-Dade County I know has better building codes, than many areas. After witnessed in the two storms so far this year, Inland Areas in Central Florida can receive 100+ MPH hurricane force winds. Its time the builders start making stronger houses, and be required to provide hurricane shutter with new homes, as they are in other coastal counties.


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:57 PM
Re: Water vapor

>>> Hello, could someone explain to me when I look on the water vapor satellite image the black and orange is the dry air? And how does this or will this effect Ivan, because from what I see it looks to be where they say Ivan will make landfall . Does this not have some effect on the steering of a hurricane? Thank you.

I'm far from an expert on this, but lemme give it a shot...yes, the brown (orange?) is dry air. This would serve to weaken a hurricane...but...(haven't checked for bout an hour) last I looked, Ivan was maintaining pretty decent outflow...that's the "explosion" of counterclockwise 'air' from the hurricane...that serves to mitigate the effects of the dry air. We'll see what effect it has on Ivan.

As get gets more northerly in the gulf, he's expected to encounter some more shear and the upper-level westerlies will also begin to go to work on his high cloud tops...so he should definitely weaken down to a CAT III. Also appeared to be undergoing another ERC last I looked.

Still think he's going into Mobile (sorry guys) as a Strong III...


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:58 PM
Re: Water vapor

The black and orange depict how dry the air is, and this "batch" came down with the trough that pulled Ivan NW and NNW. Even though the trough is departing, the dry air is actually being drawn into the very large circulation of Ivan. Whenever a tropical system ingests dry air, it has a chance to weaken because the hurricane needs a very warm, moist, environment as the energy to keep convection going. Sometimes it is temporary, and in this case, the NHC is expecting the atmosphere to be a little less hostile towards Ivan in about 24 hours I think.
I would also point out that this storm is very lopsided, as per Dr. Neese's explanation on TWC. This is also a direct result of the westerlies impacting Ivan, and again, Ivan was pulled up into these westerlies by that trough that left the dry air in the Gulf. It is almost as if the atmosphere is trying to "shove" the storm to the right, but it still remains a bully of a system.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:00 PM
Re: Water vapor

it looks like ivan is stationary again? am i seeing this wrong?

ddrehman
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:00 PM
Re: Water vapor

Is there still a possibilty that it could be "shoved " right? Thanks for all the info.

Debbie


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 PM
Re: Water vapor

URNT12 KNHC 141540
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/1540Z
B. 23 DEG 24 MIN N
86 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2496 M
D. 55 KT
E. 226 DEG 65 NM
F. 319 DEG 102 KT
G. 227 DEG 027 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 13 C/ 3089 M
J. 16 C/ 3079 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C40
N. 1234/7
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF984 3409A IVAN OB 22
MAX FL WIND 128 KT NW QUAD 1411Z. MAX FL TEMP 20C 228/19NM FROM
FL CNTR. NEW EYEWALL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.

Speaking of being a bully, in spite of the more hostile environment, the eyewall is closed again, and the pressure stopped rising-actually fell 1 mb, but the amt. of drop is insignificant at this point.


kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 PM
Re: FL Threats

Its time the builders start making stronger houses, and be required to provide hurricane shutter with new homes, as they are in other coastal counties.




It's required for builders to put hurricane shutters on new homes in coastal counties?


Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:06 PM
Re: FL Threats

Your concern should be directed to you-know-who in Tallahassee. However, the 2001 FL Bldg. Code is much better than the previous codes in each individual county or region.

I wish the best of luck and safety as Ivan heads toward you (y'all) along the Gulf Coast. Get your preps done now...and then relax..also...if you are with family...i suggest making a big dinner tonight....during Frances (and Andrew in the past) we made a huge meal...even had leftovers...why? well we were bored...and we had to get rid of all the food...plus..it makes you feel a little better about the situation and gets your mind of the doom and gloom of what is about to happen in your area.


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:07 PM
Re: Water vapor

I think the NHC has a pretty good handle on this, so I don't think it will be "shoved" rightward more than expected right now. I probably should have worded that differently, but I can't quite describe the way I want. I'll try it this way:

Imagaine me at 160 lbs coming in line with large boulder rolling down a hill. I can push with all my might at a 90 deg. angle, but can only alter its course by 10 degrees, but have expended everything I have trying to "shove" it the other way. Maybe a bowling analogy would have been better.

Edit for the following addition:
Notice that the convection is firing on the left side again in conjunction with the reorganization. It is a little less lop-sided.


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:17 PM
Rick on the Boat

I wonder where old Rick and his boat are off to? Haven't heard from him in a while. I hope he's not in Mobile at this time! :?:

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:23 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

rick was on for a time yesterday...he's mooring the boat as best as he can and then he's going inland...far inland...he should be OK, but we can only pray for the boat!

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:28 PM
Re: FL Threats

The new building code is much much better. Charley showed that where I live. Pre new code homes had the severe damage. Newer homes, like the one I am in. Had little to none, unless a tree fell on it. Even then, it was not as bad if it was a pine.


Ivan looks to be on a steady NNW course. Getting back in shape too. Was hoping that would not happen. I hope Ric is off his boat and heading for high ground. His boat and the Alabama battleship may become one if this sucker pays him a visit.


Thunder
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:29 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

So does anyone see Ivan making a signifcant turn toward the east before landfall? If not, I may call off the dogs on getting some trees taken down tomorrow.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:32 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

I would not call of the dogs in Tally. You are well within the cone. All I have to say is that a jog like Charley took would be enough to get Tallahassee.

Well, maybe not well within; but close enough that I would not chance it. Ivan is sizeable.


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:35 PM
Ivan and the Dreaded Cone

The NHC has done its best with forecasting the trended path of Ivan the Terrible - based on all the variables and on the human component- but anyone within the dreaded cone should assume they are within the target- it does not matter where the eye goes- as everyone in my neck of the woods can recall Frances' trended path..

andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

they are still predicting a turn to the ne but they are saying it is gonna to be later than originally thought. that is why the track is going west. be interesting at 4 to see the updated track. has the 1 come out yet? on central time here.


Thunder
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

Right on. Better safe than sorry. I need some sunlight in the back anyway.
I hope it stays west, but feel for those who take the brunt of this bugger. Yall screw your wigs on tight and stay safe!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:42 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

Quote:

they are still predicting a turn to the ne but they are saying it is gonna to be later than originally thought. that is why the track is going west. be interesting at 4 to see the updated track. has the 1 come out yet? on central time here.





I am still waiting for 1pm too. I guess we are back to the 2pm updates LOL


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:43 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

>>> has the 1 come out yet? on central time here.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

Interesting...they had Ed Rappaport on MSNBC showing Ivan. What I noticed was that as he was talking, he was pointing towards the center of Ivan. It may just be me, but I swear that for right now, Ivan is going due north. Especially after he put the little lines on either side of Ivan, you could see he was gaining latitude (NORTH). The 2pm and 5pm will be interesting. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see another track shift to the west, because everything I see seems to be the opposite of what they're saying. Go figure.

*DISCLAIMER* This is only my eyes, not an official forecast.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

I turned on registered only posting for the talkbacks again. It'll be temporary, and all the other forums don't have this requirement. (I don't like having to do this because I think anyone should be able to post). But if you do register, it requires a valid email address (Which we'll keep private) and cookies enabled for this site.

- Mike

If you aren't registered here you can do so with this link The only requirement is the email address, (mainly to make it difficult for people to create multiple accounts and go crazy).

Any issue you can email me at mike@flhurricane.com (or mike.cornelius@gmaill.com )



Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

Ivan seems to be heading in a more NNW direction the last couple of hours. Will it continue?

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:46 PM
the 1:00

Not too much change (if any) from the 11:00. Still packing 140 mph winds, pressure 931mb. Still forecasted to his just west of rick & MBF.

This is not going to be pretty...


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:48 PM
Re: the 1:00

I was looking at the latest Vort message, saw a 1002 mb or something, and 52 kts.....and then I realized it was Jeanne.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:50 PM
Re: the 1:00

Yeah, my heart skipped a couple happy beats until I saw it was Jeanne, too. Drats.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:54 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

I'm pretty sure that is just some wobble but interested to see how it adds up at the 5pm adv.

okiherdu
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 PM
Re: Tampa Bay NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Quote:

"I have lived in Tampa my entire life, 46 years, and have seen a lot of strange things happen with these storms. With a major Hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico that is still South of my location, the wood stays up!"

Well, I havn't lived here quite as long (only since 1967) but I have been through 4 of these things (no permanent damage with any of them, but certainly enough around me to make me sit up and take notice.......certainly enough to make me agree with the above quote. Speaking for myself, I am far from as knowlegable as most people posting here.......just trying to be practical.

Good luck and prayers for all.


luki
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 PM
Re: the 1:00

can anyone tell me whats going on in Panama City as for evacs,expected weather and such,hubby is working over there right on the bay and im getting very concerned as he isnt telling me weather they are evacuating and what not
Thanks


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:00 PM
Re: the 1:00

>>> can anyone tell me whats going on in Panama City as for evacs,expected weather and such

Coop? JK? A1T?


Storm Cooper
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 PM
Re: the 1:00

Low lying areas, Evac zones 1,2 & 3 at this time.

Let me double check the Zone 3 but I think that is correct.

http://www.pcbaygis.com/

You can check your location if needed there.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

Ivan right on its projectd path. Ivan digested the dry air pretty well and is re grouping. Unusually dry air over the Florida peninsula however around Tampa, resulting in evaporation of precip. This was not expected.

clueless
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:04 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

We here in Florida never expect dry air, but are usually grateful when we see it - right now we have to be mindful of the fact that it is going to come at the gret expense of others - for now we will watch and pray and then turn our sights to Jeanne

luki
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:05 PM
Re: the 1:00

Quote:

>>> can anyone tell me whats going on in Panama City as for evacs,expected weather and such

Coop? JK? A1T?



nto really sure west bay? i think its hes right off rt 98


Storm Cooper
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:07 PM
Re: the 1:00

Last post I made has that info.

eulogia
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:08 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

I'm tired of lurking...Re: the predicted paths and jogs. I was one of the lucky ones to be in Charley's path when he wobbled and jogged. While TWC and NHC said, "Tampa", our local guys said, "grab ahold!" Our front door storm shutter was sucked off the front of the house and my husband had to literally hold onto the door for about 45 minutes. It was pure hell. We were just a mile south and west from the eye as it went across Pine Island. Not fun!

luki
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:09 PM
Re: the 1:00

thanks got the link and checking it out

lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:15 PM
Re: the 1:00

you can also check the local tv station's web site for more Panama City info:

http://www.wjhg.com/

Very important and I forgot that one, Thanks!


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:22 PM
Re: the 1:00

coop,
are you in one of the evac zones?


FireAng85
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:24 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

Quote:

Ivan right on its projectd path. Ivan digested the dry air pretty well and is re grouping. Unusually dry air over the Florida peninsula however around Tampa, resulting in evaporation of precip. This was not expected.




Please tell me what that means....... and if there will be any repercussions because of it.
Thanks!


Storm Cooper
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:25 PM
Re: the 1:00

Nope, just a stones throw from the 4 & 5 zones.

poetdi
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:27 PM
Tired of Lurking Part 2

Re: Eulogia - Also tired of lurking. I'm in Maitland, FL and we had the eye of Charley go right up I-4, and although it was not as difficult as it was for those on the coast, we still had lots of damage in our old, oaklined neighborhood. Silver lining was that everyone, even those who never come out, was out with chainsaws in the early dawn, helping each other clear a path out of the area, which was blocked in many places by large trees. Without power for 5 days, then for 4 more with Frances, when the pool overflowed. We are very blessed that we sustained no damage beyond a dent on the roof of my car from a falling branch, and having to throw food out. Lines for generators and other supplies were impossible after a point. It took a long time to recover mentally from it all. As has been posted and written before - a true "tropical depression."

To those in the cone - we are with you in spirit. Please take very good care.

Very hopeful that Jeanne will just sit and spin with the fishes, I realize from watching this site for the last few weeks that it is way too early to tell but so far it looks like Jeanne will stay in the Atlantic and harm no one.

Poetdi
Living proof that positive thinking works!


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:29 PM
Re: the 1:00

in a 2 here. we were going to inlaws tomorrow a m if it warrents. hopefully we won't have to.. depends on the forecast surge and what the forecast track is tomorrow. they only live in parker so shouldn't take long to get there.

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:29 PM
Ivan's new path

see attachment

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:33 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

You're comparing this tropical storm to the 1938 hurricane, wow. I do think it will make a landfall in the mid-atlantic states but not at that intensity. Isn't it weird that JB almost always aims things at the mid-atlantic area, weather (LOL) it be snow or rain.

aliehs
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:33 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

, that was funny!!

1st post here from Port Richey FL. Great site, been lurking for days.

Does anyone know off-hand how many degrees Charley turned right before slamming into Punta Gorda? I know the consensus says that Ivan (or any hurricane for that matter) can't make that sharp of a turn, but just wondering.

*Edited for clarification


AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:40 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

Well I must say I never thought Ivan would make it as far west as he has. And my prayers go out to anyone near him. He has grown to be quite a large storm, and we can only hope that he loses some strength before landfall.

Jeanne has gotten her act together a little bit more together this afternoon. The very first forecast was shifted a bit west, but that was because initially they had a hard time pinpointing her exact location. Some models(UK/Can/etc) have the ridge to her north maintaining current intensity or even building and they show a more westward movement. The GFS and GFDL depict a weakening of the ridge, allowing her to turn more northward. It will probably be another wait and see event, at least for the next few days. Right now everyone should keep an eye on Ivan, and give some prayers for everyone affected.


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:42 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

Keith234,

I think you're a tad confused, either that or I don't understand what you are saying.

I'm saying JB is comparing the possible storm surge in mobile bay (as it is ^ shaped) to the 38 cane where Providence sits at the end of the Providence river, which in turn feeds the Naragansett Bay... which is also ^ shaped.

And I'm talking about Ivan, not Jeanne...that's a whole nother story we'll need to deal with soon I've had it already.


belleami
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:48 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

So, can Ivan still make that turn towards the east? Is Apalachicola etc out of the woods yet?

One foot in the door, the other poised for flight...

Susie


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:55 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

Whoops made an error there, I've had it too can't wait for the New Year!

eulogia
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:56 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

We have friends in PCB who have already bugged out. They've gone to...where else: Disney World! If any of you all live in hurricane prone areas, the best investment you will ever make in your life, aside from some good storm shutters, is a generator. If you are evacuating, try to buy one wherever you are evacuating to and bring it back with you.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:56 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

I'm just coming in from outside, I feel like a wet rag it's so frigging humid. Definitely tropical moisture...believe it or not, there's a difference between "regular" Florida moisture and "tropical Florida" moisture. The air feels denser, smells different. That sounds wacky, but it's true. Living here for 13 years now, I can tell the difference.
The rain should start coming in later tonight; I think we'll see more t-storms and gusty winds and lots of rain. I'm hoping this will happen around 6pm so I don't have to sweat at football practice.
Also...an interesting fact that I learned during Charley and Frances...if you are in a high-rise on the beach or anywhere with this storm, the winds you experience will be higher than those at the surface.
I don't want to hear the name JEANNE until absolutely necessary.


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

appears to be heading just west of due north. 340?? eye looks better defined also. not sure the big eazy is outta of it yet. if it doesn't make the ne turn they might get more than they bargined for. good for them the nw quad is what they would get.. the models seem to be in much more agreement models

FireAng85
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

Quote:

see attachment




I don't see an attachment......


schmoo
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

so just as a gauge of sanity...
does anyone on this forum feel there is threat to New Orleans?

thanks


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 02:59 PM
Attachment
JEANNE

>>> I don't want to hear the name JEANNE until absolutely necessary.

Unfortunately, this is now a two front war...Ivan will still making mischief while Jeanne is deciding where she wants to go. See attachment (don't worry Mike, this one's legit)


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:03 PM
Re: JEANNE

the other one was better news for the panhandle

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:04 PM
Re: JEANNE

Won't Ivan cause the ridge to block Jeanne or slow her down, at least that's what it looks like from the models.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:05 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

At this point, I would say it's highly unlikely that Ivan's path will have any drastic changes to it, and I don't see anything that would turn him towards the Big Bend.
Keep in mind: your weather is going to be nasty the next couple of days as Ivan makes his way towards Mobile/Pensacola. You're in the worst part of the storm (except for those in the direct path) as the NE side is the most viscious. It doesn't have to make a huge turn to affect your weather. This forecast will keep being tweaked and finetuned until it makes landfall; the closer it gets, the more accurate it'll be.
As for the NNW movement, if this continues, I would really like to know what kind of impact that will have on the path. I know it won't shift it dramatically either way, but wouldn't it change it somewhat as it goes more N than West? I'm so confused at this point that I should just stick to reading books.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:13 PM
Re: JEANNE

Quote:

Won't Ivan cause the ridge to block Jeanne or slow her down, at least that's what it looks like from the models.




Ivan is forecast to greatly slow down or stall over Tenn, Ga or SC. I think the placement of that stall will greatly affect Jeanne. A SC stall could pull Jeanne up towards the Outer Banks. A stall further West may allow a path towards FL


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:14 PM
Re: JEANNE

ACK! Okay, that's ACCUWEATHER's forecast. The only good thing I can say about that track is that Ivan's barely out of there, maybe that will have some affect on Jeanne. (I can't believe I just said that name).

Heads up alert: Max Mayfield will be on FNC in a few minutes to talk about you-know-who.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:14 PM
Re: Rick on the Boat

no nothing ominous I am surprised that the rain is evaporating so fast no real moisture in the lower levels to support it...all the rain is off shore about 75 miles
i think it means that Ivan may have reduced its overall size and that's a good thing for Tampa.


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:16 PM
Re: JEANNE

Hate to say it Colleen, but accuweather (not JB) did better with Ivan than NHC has, so far...Jeanne's window of movement is so big you could drive a truck through it...but it will become a playah by this weekend.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

St Marks is still in the watch zone...warnings posted in next advisory, probably to your west.

mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

Anyone know when the next recon report will come in ?? Still praying for Ivan to weaken !!

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
Ivan's Slowdown

Sheppard Smith is alluding to "new information on Hurricane Ivan" ...I don't know what the heck he is talking about, except for the fact that he keeps saying "it might be devastating for N.O..." I wish people in the news wouldn't do that, float a teaser out there like that when millions of people are literally hanging on to every word the talking heads (not the mets) are putting out.
I'm gonna smack Shep upside his head. I think it's irresponsible and stupid to do stuff like that.


St. David
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
Re: JEANNE

storm looks like its gaining so strenght from the satilite images...

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
Re: JEANNE

I agree with you LI Phil. Not that I want to. But if you look at the WV loop its kinda scary. Florida is surrounded!

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east.html


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Yeah it is...but it got your attention and now you can't flip the station and you have to sit thru all those ads for which they charge the big bucks...

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:21 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Where is that Dynagel plane?!

I am not going to say anything is unlikely at this point. I think the most probable is that there will be a hit from Pensacola to New Orleans. I am still thinking Biloxi myself.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:22 PM
Re: JEANNE

I didn't mean it as a put-down on Accuweather...they have done a great job with Ivan. I was just hoping that on that track, Jeanne would not have a much warm water to work with as Ivan.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:23 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

BTW, your attachment on Jeanne was on the Comedy thread. Reposting my question...why is the significance of the arrow...why isn't it in the middle of the cone?

andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:25 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

let us know what he says

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:26 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

The cone is the possible area. The line is the area they think most likely. IE, they think it is more likely to take the southern path. They do not think it will go south of there. However, it could go further north and east.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:26 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

actually phil,,accu weather was saying up to west coast of florida all weekend till late sunday when they moved it west with the NHC. We all kinda thought the west coast of florida had a bad chance at it,, but it would of been stupid to forecast that soo many days out. I do think they need to put up warnings at 5pm to get it out to the public to finalize plans. NO thru Ft walton beach but they will extend it eastward, although I dont expect hurricane force winds in Panama City. There will be TS winds in bands though. Jeane is getting better organized. This could become a weak hurricane by weds afternoon if it stays south of Puerto Rico before landfall in the Dominican Republic. I think then it will get ripped apart but dont know how much cause we dont know exactly where landfall will be or if it skims puerto rico......right now,,its best to say on her that it skims the s coast of Puerto Rico and takes aime on Hispaniola in 60 hours.

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:27 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Um...then something's very f---ed up. When I click the "attachment" the funny one comes up.

Anyway, you pose a fair question...since the cone is so wide, I'm not sure where they think it will go, and why the middle arrow is not midway between the two outer arrows is very strange. Perhaps they feel Jeanne will get picked up by a trof (lets hope so) and never make a US threat, so that's why they trend the right arrow so far north.

You sure about that comedy forum post...maybe someone else can tell me which attachment is in the comedy forum...thanks.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:28 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

I think you mean what, anyway they just want to show the area it could possiblily go, hurricanes don't usually stay in the dead center of the cone. So there trying to cover themselves.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:33 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Maybe so, but I guess I've always thought dead center in the cone was the most likely spot and the cone was just extended out any equal number of mile to the right and left of that point.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:34 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

I just watched it....there was ABSOLUTELY NOTHING NEW that Ed Rappaport said that he hasn't said all day. Yeah, he kinda pointed a little more to the east as a possible landfall (not much) but he said it could be off 60-75 miles and that would make a huge difference as far as the affects to the north and east of the ACTUAL landfall point.
Sheppard Smith made it sound like something was gonna swoop down and kick it straight into N.O. I hate when he does that...
FWIW, having been that it's stayed on that NNW/sometimes N course almost all day, I would think we might see a very, tiny, eensy-teensy, wee shift of the track to the..........right?
With my record, it'll go west. I am 0-5 in these path changes. Maybe I should say to the west, and I'd be correct. I'll figure it out before hurricane season is over.

Also....are they talking about a slowdown w/Ivan AFTER landfall or BEFORE? Please tell me it's not before...not that after would be any better. Just didn't catch that slowdown thing. Thanks!


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:35 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Well in South Fla we are getting some wind from Ivan. He's actually making it quite nice around here. I'm taking my kids to go fly a kite now. Whats that old saying? "There's no great loss without some small gain" The kids do deserve a break from all the drama.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Ivan wobble to the right again...more north in last 30-45 min.

Thunder
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Quote:

Well in South Fla we are getting some wind from Ivan. He's actually making it quite nice around here. I'm taking my kids to go fly a kite now. Whats that old saying? "There's no great loss without some small gain" The kids do deserve a break from all the drama.




Drama, what drama? I don't smell no drama!


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
The Cone

The "cone" is given as a general idea of where it could go, with the middle line being the most likely to get landfall. The margin of error is what is on either side of the cone; the closer it gets to landfall, the smaller that cone will shrink.
Hope that helps.


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:43 PM
Just to right of prediction

Phil posted this link earlier which allows you to click on the forecast position and compare it against the actual track. Great site!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

For what it's worth, looks like Ivan will past just to the east of the next projection. Of course, one wobble could bring it back.


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:44 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

Make sure you click on "forecast points" though. Also, be interesting to see if it's still a CAT IV at the next point, as it's predicted to be a three...hmmmm

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:46 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

I want to note that recon found 998mb in Jeanne, and estimated ground winds around 60MPH.
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 58KT (66.7mph 107.4km/h) In SE Quadrant At 1714Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 52.2KT (60.0mph 96.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: LP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Tuesday, September 14, 2004 15:12:00 (Tue, 14 Sep 2004 19:12:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 16° 41' N 63° 39' W (16.7°N 63.6°W)

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 60KT (69MPH 111.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 17nm (19.55miles) From Center At Bearing 052°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 57KT (65.55mph 105.6km/h) From 110°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 015nm (17.3 miles) From Center At Bearing 057°
Minimum pressure: 998mb (29.47in) -- Extrapolated
B. 16 DEG 41 MIN N
63 DEG 39 MIN W
C. NA
D. 60 KT
E. 052 DEG 17 NM
F. 110 DEG 57 KT
G. 057 DEG 015 NM
H. EXTRAP 998 MB
I. 21 C/ 239 M
J. 25 C/ 328 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF977 0111A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 58 KT SE QUAD 1714Z.SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:47 PM
Re: Ivan's new path

As big as Ivan is, and as below sea level, it doesn't have to be a direct hit to do a whole lot of damage there.

'shana


Thunder
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:48 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

Quote:

Make sure you click on "forecast points" though. Also, be interesting to see if it's still a CAT IV at the next point, as it's predicted to be a three...hmmmm



GOOD STUFF!!!


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:49 PM
JBs just full of good news this afternoon

I had been derelict in not checking what JB had to say earlier this afternoon...well...it's not good...for Mobile.

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

My thoughts are with those in the Gulf.... i hope Ivan does not take anymore lives. He has devastated the Caribbean... now we here in Miami focus our attention south east to Jeanne.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

nice work, you beat me too it.....looks like it is going through a rapid burst of deepening, for however long it lasts......I think the last vortex message was only a couple of hours ago.

lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

And to my admittedly untrained eye, Ivan doesn't look like it's getting weaker. It will be interesting to see if it's a 3 or 4 at the next marker.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:53 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

the pressure is still in the threshhold for a 4, and based on sat. presentation, it looks like it is getting a little better organized. I doubt it will be a 3 there.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:53 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Okay, I got the info on the slow-down. It's AFTER it makes LANDFALL, near the border of GA/TN. Not good news for them.
Now, they keep showing this storm (at least on FNC) moving in a NW direction, which is obviously different from what we are seeing (NNW) and hitting in between eastern LA and Mobile.
I have to say that if this NNW/N (at times) trend continues, how can they NOT shift the track to the right at some point in time? Or are they on the line of thinking that it will move back to the NW somewhere down the line?
I realize I'm beating a dead horse here; it's just confusing.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:54 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

Quote:

I want to note that recon found 998mb in Jeanne, and estimated ground winds around 60MPH.
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 58KT (66.7mph 107.4km/h) In SE Quadrant At 1714Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 52.2KT (60.0mph 96.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: LP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Tuesday, September 14, 2004 15:12:00 (Tue, 14 Sep 2004 19:12:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 16° 41' N 63° 39' W (16.7°N 63.6°W)

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 60KT (69MPH 111.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 17nm (19.55miles) From Center At Bearing 052°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 57KT (65.55mph 105.6km/h) From 110°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 015nm (17.3 miles) From Center At Bearing 057°
Minimum pressure: 998mb (29.47in) -- Extrapolated
B. 16 DEG 41 MIN N
63 DEG 39 MIN W
C. NA
D. 60 KT
E. 052 DEG 17 NM
F. 110 DEG 57 KT
G. 057 DEG 015 NM
H. EXTRAP 998 MB
I. 21 C/ 239 M
J. 25 C/ 328 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF977 0111A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 58 KT SE QUAD 1714Z.SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.





Can we get a storm to struggle this year, or is every storm destined for Cat 3 or higher??


tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:56 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Just saw the TWC update. Dr. Lyons said that the "last few frames" have been almost due north. He also said it was following the edge of that ridge in the western GOM and they expect it to take that turn to the east shortly before landfall. He indicated the cirrus clouds that were moving off towards the east ahead of Ivan.

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:57 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

Mr. Spock I tend to agree. T#s for 1745 were 5.5/6.5 (a full point spread...hmmm)...looks like it will just miss the mark

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Bioman
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:58 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Have you guys seen the buoys? 42003 is showing 26 foot waves and sustained winds of 40 something knots. unbelievable. The wave height has more than doubled from yesterday along with the wind speed. this will be amazing if the buoy survives because its going to be close to ivans path

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:59 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

Yeah, you're right. Wobbles. Wiggles. Westerlies.
They're all driving me nuts. Now I guess I could see how they would keep it right where it is...no changes.
I'll check back in at 5.
Life tends to interrupt hurricanes.


mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:00 PM
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon

Gee thanks....... I'm less than thrilled. Looks like I'm going to be riding it out here in west Mobile....... and praying it jogs to the east a little ! I wanted to leave, but hubby used the "for better or worse till death do us part" guilt trip. Windows are boarded up, hurricane stuff is ready, and I'm hoping for a direct hot line to God. I'm hoping to fly to Maryland this weekend; can't stand the thought of 2 or 3 weeks with no electricity !!

Has anyone seen an updated recon report yet ???

Keep us in your prayers y'all !!


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:01 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Quote:

Have you guys seen the buoys? 42003 is showing 26 foot waves and sustained winds of 40 something knots. unbelievable. The wave height has more than doubled from yesterday along with the wind speed. this will be amazing if the buoy survives because its going to be close to ivans path




This graph from there shows it quite well... (The buoy is linked in the Event Related links in the main article)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=42003&uom=E


GENIE
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:01 PM
Re: Just to right of prediction

25.6 wave height at bouy 42003. pressure falling rapidly. Wind gust to 60kts. In case some have not checked lately.

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:03 PM
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon

You may want to rethink that decision...unless you're about 25 miles inland and your house is up to code! Godspeed!

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:03 PM
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon

Speaking of buoy obs in the GOM. Here is the page from the NDBC with sites near where Ivan will pass.

NDBC Sites


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:04 PM
Please let that be a jog

Tell that thing to quit threatening to turn further right and tell it to go away.... and the last few frames better be a jog and not a trend or once again the NHC is going to be horrifyingly off

Mark
Go Falcons 1 - 0


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:08 PM
Re: Ivan's Slowdown

Colleen, I don't have cable, and I feel like I'm watching the weather channel. Thanks for your posts! I saw enuf of them when I was up in Atlanta. BTW, I hope no one is traveling through ATL on Friday!
Well, we're definitely within the 48-hr window for anyone from NO to PCB. I think NHC still has a good handle on Ivan - CAT 3, Thursday morning, around Biloxi. Yet, I'm still wondering if Ivan will clear 88 W with strength of shear and trof to the W? Any thoughts?


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM
Just checking in...

I've got most everything done that I'm going to do. That consisted of bringing in about 10 bikes, some toys, scooters, balls, hoses and such. I'd estimate that 75-80% of my neighborhood has evacuated. I haven't seen anything taken this seriously since Georges, so obviously in Old Metairie, the folks did what the felt they needed to. I have a theory (that I think holds) that whenever there is a recent & devastating storm, people think twice about staying. Frances (flooding) then the mass evacuation for Georges, Alex/Charley/Frances and Ivan. I'm pretty excited about Ivan. I don't know what it has in store for me, but I'm ready for the action. Today's been kind of weird. It's a mixed sky right now with a nice breeze around 12-15 gusting to 18-20 from time to time - mostly out of the E and ENE. The temperature is in the mid 80's. That really shows how big Ivan is. Often when a compact storm is 250 miles away, the weather can be hot and still (calm before the storm stuff). But that's not the feel today. My expectations are a cross between what New Orleans got from Florence (88 I think), Andrew (92) and Georges (98). Put together, that's probably a few inches of rain (more with a landfall closer to me), some sustained winds in the 30's and 40's with some gusts into the 50's and 60's, blown transformers, downed limbs and scattered power and cable outages - you know, a good beer drinking partying kind of storm. I could be wrong (and I hope I'm not, heh) but I'm looking forward to the ride. The traffic has been horrendous in the city as everyone hit the highways this morning. My kids are en route to Memphis, and my wife is sleeping and should be heading up there later this evening after she gets some sleep. I've gotten a few "Woooo" calls from old hurricane buddies who wanted to know my excitement level amidst all the freaking going on. I guess that means people to party with over the next few days

The last several frames show alternating N and NNW movements - I'd guess the storm was averaging 340ish in the short term after a westerly jog this morning. Without doing the math, Ivan seems to be stair-stepping around 320-330 (NN+W essentially) . Prayers and well wishes to everyone with property, peeps, ties or whatever from lower Plaquemines Parish, LA to Panama City. Hopefully the just west of Mobile scenario doesn't pan out. That's similar to our doomsday of a storm riding toward the WNW south of the city (as JB noted today - the one that makes N.O. the Gulf via Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Borne. We'll see that again someday, but not this time.

A JB quick note on Jeanne. In his backing pattern theory, Jeanne (if she encouters a ridge building in behind Ivan as some of the models are now alluding to) becomes a potential player for the Western Gulf by 3-6 degrees west of Ivan's landfall. That theory requires her to wait for the Ivan mess to clear and then head on W (he had it between FL and Cuba, but that was just a telestrator drawing and wasn't emphasized as much as the idea that it could mirror the Isidore-Lili 1-2 Gulf Cat 4's from 2002 based on uncannily similar water temperature profiles.

I'll check in from time to time. Good luck to all and a shout out to Frank P. My bet is by the time he's back online, he rates in the Top 3 as measured by the seawall and Beach Blvd.

Woohoo!

Steve


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM
looking at the water vapor loop.....

First, the trough that was near Memphis the other day, is lifting out nicely, but it almost seems as if a small piece broke off into the Gulf, which was responsible for the dry air, and the fact that it never curved back to the NW.

Second, a strong upper level disturbance just crossed through Salt Lake City, and a strong trough is moving into the Rockies. This will be the next system to help draw up the storm I believe.
There is also strong jet energy rounding the base of that trough.
I can't rule out the possibilty it curls back towards the NW a little due to the piece of energy in the Gulf, but I don't think it will be a major move. The arguement against that is that it appears to be moving north on the last few frames, which wouldn't be expected in this scenario. The next trough seems to be coming in pretty quickly as well.

I am concerned about post-landfall also, as it may get stuck in the Appalachians, and a strong SE upslope flow is not needed in the already-flood-ravaged areas. The GFS puts out almost 4" of rain where I am in NJ, and I won't be close to it.

I hope this isn't another Allison, which was not much of a storm, but got stuck of Ga. and wreaked all kinds of flooding havoc. It also got stuck.


lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:17 PM
Re: looking at the water vapor loop.....

I can verify Salt lake had a front pass through- it's 64 degrees here now!

FireAng85
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:18 PM
Re: Please let that be a jog

Quote:

Tell that thing to quit threatening to turn further right and tell it to go away.... and the last few frames better be a jog and not a trend or once again the NHC is going to be horrifyingly off

Mark
Go Falcons 1 - 0






Mark,
I was thinking the same thing............


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:25 PM
Re: looking at the water vapor loop.....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

This will show what you felt.......


mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:25 PM
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon

Quote:

You may want to rethink that decision...unless you're about 25 miles inland and your house is up to code! Godspeed!




I'm a little more than 30 miles north of Dauphin Island. (Well north of I-10, near Mobile Airport) The house (brick) withstood Frederic and others since, but the three huge oak trees surrounding my house weren't quite so large then ! No chance of flooding here, so I'm just praying for the trees to stay up and the roof to stay down. My son and his family were smart enough to be on their way to Montgomery this afternoon, and then Tennessee in the morning.

I'll try to keep y'all posted (and I'm sure rickNOTonaboat will as well !) tomorrow when things start getting ugly. I have about 4 hours of battery back up for the 'puter, but not sure how long the cable modem will be working though.

PLEASE keep the sight up guys -- I'm countin' on ya !!


Lisa NC
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon

Here's a link to the whole gulf waves. Very interesting the waves around the eye

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
Re: Please let that be a jog

Please note, that reference to the NHC being horrifyingly off was not an effort to disparage their efforts, they're doing their best, and they're doing a heck of a lot better than anyone else. it's just that this storm has been an unpredictable storm, even for a hurricane. And I'm just a bit fearful that the chaos of the atmosphere won't be properly understood in this case and the NHC will miss predict with... horrifying consequences....

I think the NHC rocks, just I also realize they're not perfect
Mark

Go Falcons... And Take the Braves with you! (Old Falcons Cheer)


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon

MBFly...

Check your PMs (note that that is a SMALL s)...


GENIE
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:27 PM
Re: looking at the water vapor loop.....

Are there any SLOSH models on the web?

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:28 PM
Re: looking at the water vapor loop.....

Method of post Spock

Here's the link to a thread discussing the very idea on Storm2k. Purdue's got a different take than you do, but you might find it of interest just the same.

Evidence of Ridge Building in N of Ivan

Steve


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:30 PM
Re: Please let that be a jog

may not be a jog...it looks pretty solid to me, not a wobble but a turn; the trough is approaching TX now from N.Mex and it is approaching at twice the speed that Ivan is moving...looks like a good push too. I expect the discussion to deal with this as it did last night at this time. (remember a NNW move yesterday and a prediciton of a return to NW and it did so.)
If Ivan is being influenced by the ATl ridge and is following that flow, then is the ridge influence puling out sooner than forecast? We'll have to see.


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:34 PM
5:00

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Still 140mph, still a CAT IV and Still supposed to be a CAT IV tomorrow...still looks like Mobile Bay is the BULLSEYE!


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:37 PM
Re: 5:00

lets see what the discussion says

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:39 PM
Re: looking at the water vapor loop.....

I couldn't read it because it requires a password.

Oh well.


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:42 PM
Re: looking at the water vapor loop.....

The discussion will be written by James Franklin, not Stacy Stewart...let's hope it's as insightful...

Renee
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:54 PM
Re: 5:00

So, we weren't imagining the due north movement.

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 14 2004 05:03 PM
Re: 5:00

Every time the site goes down I get to check what others (pros, not S2K or HCity); everyone is coming more and more into agreement with my yesterday call for a Strong III or (much stronger) just west of Mobile Bay. This could be REALLY REALLY BAD; it's going to be bad enough no matter where it hits...a 20' storm surge with 25' waves filtering into Mobile Bay....good god let's pray this does not happen...

Mobile storm surge maps


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 05:04 PM
Re: looking at the water vapor loop.....

Steve, where is their disagreement? Just curious....

mud1967
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 05:08 PM
Re: 5:00

Renee,

What is your gut feeling about what is coming to Tallahassee?


mud1967
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 14 2004 05:11 PM
Re: 5:00

Just wondering....How far is it between let's say 87west and 85 just east of that?

andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 14 2004 05:15 PM
Re: 5:00

new thread guys and girls


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