(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:22 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

I am afraid we may see a VERY strong Cat IV or possibly a V at land fall. Ivan is really intensifying.

(Admin)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:24 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

I don't think it will be a cat 5 (less than 10% chance), conditions aren't good enough for it. It will hold around what it is now. Recon reports are key to figuring out what it's really doing in there.

Pressure has dropped down to 937 according to the latest vortex message.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:27 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Also, Jeanne had a remarkably well-defined eye on the radar in the hours leading to landfall, especially for a tropical storm. It's clustered now, but I have a feeling this thing will really strengthen as long as Ivan keeps his distance.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:28 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Speaking of Recon, when should we expect another report. I agree that it will not make cat 5, but it does look to be strengthening.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:29 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

watching radar loops, he looks almost due north right now, I can't see much westernly component in the last 30 minutes....

St. David

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:32 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

steering looks like its gone.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:32 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Frank, i would recommend you clear out of there right away!!

Why chance it?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:35 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Hey Frank,

Radar's weird like that. Look at the big picture. I know you have this loop linked, but you can see the general trend. Smoothing the track, it's about 350. Looks like a star thingy in the eye at the last frame:

SSD Visible

Bust open that Crown baby.

Steve

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:35 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

This sat loop only goes until 1745z, but I don't see ANY northerly movement...

Frank..GO!

Edit...looks like Steve beat me to it, and his loop goes to 1815...

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:37 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

my primary concern is storm surge, and winds out of the south.... as long as I'm assured it will be to the west of me I'm not going to get the worst of it... hopefully...

thanks

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:38 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

You would be in the worst possible spot Frank. Do you mean East?

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:44 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

I know the view on radar is skewed this far out, but isn't this about where the NHC track starts the NNE turn? It could be just a wobble, but in the last few radar frames it does seem to be leaning to the right. But it might be a couple more hours before we can see a real trend.

Bill

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:45 PM

local update

Just had a tornado watch issued; looks like some very strong rainbands will be here shortly. Winds are now gusting to a good 30mph or so. Just now beginning to rain at my house. ALL Shelters in Mobile are now CLOSED officially per local TV reports. I'm not sure about electricity, but well before Frederic came on shore in '79 they turned the power off.

Right now my prayer, besides survival, is that Ivan does not get any stronger !!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:48 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

FlaReb, I sit corrected... you are exactly right EAST IS THE KEY for me...

Bil, I hope you are seening the same thing I'm seeing on radar, it more updated than the sat pixs by a good 20-30 minutes... I think this is kinda cutting in close on my part but I still have options available.. appreciate everyones concern greatly... would feel bad if I abandoned my neighbors...

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:51 PM

Frank...

don't know if this will be of any help regarding the surge...worth a look-see.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:53 PM

Re: local update

MB that is a tornado warning...must be one in those very Red cells coming ashore in your county.

docjoe

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:54 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Sitting here in Santa Rosa county between milton and pace. moderate rain and gusts maybe up to 30 MPH. nothing big yet but obviously will change soon. channel 3 just reported that the navarre pier is collapsing. good luck to everyone and stay safe!!!

docjoe

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:56 PM

Re: local update

noticed that while I was typing the last post. looks to be just off shore south of gulf shores or so, headed nw toward foley.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:57 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Recon is still out there, looks like they are in the SE quadrant now. The last vortex message was about an hour ago, might be a while before they send another one. .

Bill

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:57 PM

Re: Frank...

thanks Phil, but I'm 20 feet above sea level, even in the worse case scenario with a Cat 4 I would not see surge in my house.....

WIth a hit east of me and no southerly flow I will not see any surge greater than a max of 5-8 feet on the west side, if that, when the winds turn out of the due north they will blow the water out of the MS sound to ship island, you could walk to the barrier islands... actually you'd probably fly with a 135 mph wind at your back.... and you might have to take a boat to access the casinos because all the casios might end up on Ship Island, 12 miles south....

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:00 PM

Something you never want to read...

peeking at yahoo and the AP had a wire story with the following paragraph...

"No shelters were available in Baldwin County, Ala., said assistant emergency management director Roy Wulff. The county usually uses schools as shelters, but the wind expected from Ivan "far exceeds the winds those buildings were built to withstand," he said. "

That means any last minute evacs are going to have to go futher to get to safety... not good at all

Good luck people
Mark

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:01 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

low tide was 1-1:30 here. I would say the tides are running about 2-3 feet higher than normal right now..dock has about 6 inches before its covered

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:03 PM

Re: Frank...

Great site LI Phil, it's a shame they don't have more stations on the East coast (would've liked to have seen just how high they recorded surge during Frances, I know we had at least 6 inches over the seawall in Palm Beach Shores).

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:05 PM

Re: Frank...

tornado here..heading north up 231

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:07 PM

Re: Frank...

Frank, my only concern is that you might be taking an unnessecary gamble. There is nothing to say that there is not a significant wobble in the last couple of hours towards you. By then, it would be too late because I would suspect that many bridges would be closed by high winds. Even taking a chance that the storm could intensify, a Cat 4 / low Cat 5 would do a good bit of physical damage. You probably do not have long until routes are closed if they are similar to coastal set ups here in Florida. Plus, trying to do it at night would be especially dangerous.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:07 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

my observations as of the moment... does not have much westerly component... if any, looks to be on the NHC forecast track heading right at the MS/AS line... i expect to be on the extreme western edge of the large eye.... I can handle that.. won't be pretty over here, but Pascagoula, Mobile and eastward will be a whole lot worse... Keeping my fingers crossed... stil have several hours for options.... gang, I am taking this as serious as any hurricane I've ever experienced.. thanks for the great posts...

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:09 PM

Re: Frank...

What kind of safe room do you have?

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:09 PM

Tallahasse advice please

My niece is in Tallahasse and her employer is making her work today. She doesn't get off until 11:00pm. There are flood and tornado watches out for Leon County. How can they make her go out in this? She is 19 and a typical 19 year old driver. This worries me. FSU is not even closing tommorow. Whats up with that?

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:10 PM

Dauphin Island Buoy Data

DPIA1

Note the pressure drop!

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:11 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Quote:

my observations as of the moment... does not have much westerly component... if any, looks to be on the NHC forecast track heading right at the MS/AS line... i expect to be on the extreme western edge of the large eye.... I can handle that.. won't be pretty over here, but Pascagoula, Mobile and eastward will be a whole lot worse... Keeping my fingers crossed... stil have several hours for options.... gang, I am taking this as serious as any hurricane I've ever experienced.. thanks for the great posts...

No westward ?

Check this out

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_IVAN/anim8vis.html

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:13 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

it dissapated... frank the sat i see show it is pretty much on track just a little west.. also the eye looks a little bigger

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:15 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Can someone explain exactly what the implications of Ivan moving ashore faster than expected would be with regards to track? I just heard the commissioner for Mobile say that they were just informed by the NHC that Ivan is moving faster than expected. Would this not cause him to come ashore further west?

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:15 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

42 foot wave heights on 42040 buoy

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:15 PM

Re: Frank...

Rasvar great advise, however, my options right now would not involve any bridges... and are all within 15 minutes max drive...

I will not evacuate after dark, if I have not left by dark, then I'm not leaving.... I still have several hours to monitor, and will do so... 88.5w is my key.... I'm at 89L...

radar still looking north....

Steve, holding off on the two half gallons of hurricane prep crown right now... I need to be fully mentally as sharp as I can.... I could get a couple wobbles to the NNE I might just open up one though...

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:15 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

I think what Frank is saying is: "Don't try this at home" lol... good luck and I look forward to your stories afterward...oh yeah and make sure your "safe room" has internet access!

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:17 PM

Pressure down in latest recon

Pressure down to 937 on latest recon. Hope this does not continue. Frank, I think you are right. looks to be due north...That said, you are crazy to chance that it won't wobble back left.

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:18 PM

speaking of bouys

I hope this one is broken

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?station=42013&meas=wspd&uom=E

heh
Mark

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:18 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Frank............listen to Phil.........we would hate to see anything happen to you.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:19 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

Heh. I saw that one. Kind of think the buoy would no longer be a buoy at that windspeed. Would probably be airborne.

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:21 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

OMG bloodstar...280 knots...what is that in mph?

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:22 PM

Re: Frank...

>two half gallons of hurricane prep crown<

Hmmm...they never told us to put this in *our* hurricane preparedness kit. I did, however, have a full bottle of Xanax. They came in quite handy.

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:22 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Frank, please at least pull a mattress into your safe room. My elderly parents promised me last night they were evacuating to Texas and instead went to Ocean Springs this morning. I am worried sick for all of you.
Helen

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:23 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

LOL, I should certainly hope so

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:25 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Justin... exactly... hell I bet I have as much experience with hurricanes as most, but this one has been gut wrenching to say the least.... I got at best another two hours to monitor before it gets to hazardous to leave... I'm OK and I'm NOT going to do anything stupid... ... trust me gang I think I know what I'm doing and I'm taking this extremely serious...

your posts have been great, hope I can repay you all in the future with the NEXT one... hehe....

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:25 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

-OMG, Bloodstar, 280kts? How much is that in mph?-

280kts = 322 mph

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:26 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Helen, good advise but its already been done, along with a matress for my two bassets... thanks

going to OS not a very good idea.... hope they are OK..

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:27 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Ivan is not going to turn anymore to the E landfall is but 10hrs away at this point.The pressure dropping alittle expect to see a cat IV for sure.The curfew starts at 7:00PM by the way my wife said kids were skim boarding only yards from the seawall at Cowan Rd. earlier.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:27 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

280 knots=322mph

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:28 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

have you guys been watching the tide at dpia1? DPIA1

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:30 PM

Redbird

>>> Frank............listen to Phil.........we would hate to see anything happen to you.

LOL...Frank's been through Camille...nothin' I say is making him leave...he'll make that reasoned judgment when the time comes. He's got some big stones that is for sure!

Here's hoping you can pop the crown SOONER than later...

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:30 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

cant get the NO radar to load

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:33 PM

Re: Redbird

thanks Phil, yea stones might be big but the pucker factor is WAY UP right now...and special thanks to Mike for keeping the site up and running during this most critical time....

you just don't realize how much everyone posts mean...

Jav, thanks for the heads up on the curfew.... gives me just a little more time to monitor...

bottom line, stays due north, I'll be Ok... any drift to the west, I'm a gone pecan....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:34 PM

Re: Redbird

True he could be quite fortified and safe but would feel better if he were on higher ground........................we won't know for awhile since his power is about to go out right?

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:34 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Check out this still sat pic of Ivan...remind anyone of anything?

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:35 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Just saw the IR loop. i cant believe it but it looks to be getting better organized.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:36 PM

Re: Redbird

Frank u do plan on calling Phil or Mike on your cell first chance u get to let them know you are okay right?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:37 PM

Re: Redbird

redbird, honestly, I am not worried about the surge, I'm much more worried about tree damage,causing structural degradation of the house during the high wind event... 20 feet is rather high for Biloxi

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:37 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

scary stuff phil...that looks like camille

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:38 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

If that buoy was correct, wouldnt that be an F6 tornado?
(if it if it would still exist in that kind of wind)

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:39 PM

Re: Redbird

sure no problem....
Phil or Mike, can you mail me your phone numbers so I can report in after the fact...

thanks

Just sent you the PM

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:40 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

Buoys are ANCHORED to something right? Wonder how much surge/speed would be required to jack them off their moorings...seriously...anyone know?

meto

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:40 PM

Re: Redbird

plz get the god is pissed off of here. ALSO THIS HURRICANE IS NOT A LAUGHING MATTER. THNX....

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:42 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

waterspout, when they are over water; tornado over land

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:42 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Quote:

Check out this still sat pic of Ivan...remind anyone of anything?

Please don't say the "C" word this storm is bad enough... heh

Mark
(Go Falcons... Make Ivan go away!)

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:43 PM

Re: Redbird

I was kinda turned off to that as well.....................had my fill of hearing how god is ticked after 911..................

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:47 PM

Re: Redbird

Don't be surprised if the cellphone doesn't work after the storm. The cell towers could be blown down. We were able to use a land line phone - you know - the old phones we used to have before they got all fancy? It still worked after Charley and it was several days before Sprint or AT&T cells were functional.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:49 PM

Re: Redbird

LOL basically meant use whatever one works so that we know he is still floating around the gulf safe and sound. My cell service was flaky for days after Frances............along with everything else.

Timbo

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:50 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

This storm sure appears to be tracking similarly to Opal .... do you think it will make it as far east as P'Cola / Navarre?

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:51 PM

Franks Bassets

I'm glad you have a mattress ready for your puppies Frank. This might sound mean but you might want to limit their food and water for now. You don't want to have to walk them in the middle of this. Take my word for it!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:52 PM

It needs to be upgraded to a cat6

This buoy says the winds arond over 270 mph! The hurricane has a round eye. With reds all the way around. It is looking better then ever. It is amazing it is bombing if this data is right!
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42013

Buoy has probably failed , ie it's broke

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:52 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

The still sat pic I posted reminded me of a storm from 2003, also beginning with "I". Had that pentagram-thingy going on in the eye...that can't be good...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:52 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

Waterspout?

Anon

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:53 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

PHil, that sat pic reminds me of Isabell from last year.
I saw the same star pattern inside the eye.

The ey is widening according to TWC possibly about 60 miles wide.

Thiis is scary stuff even watching it from central florida !!

Stay safe Frank I can only imagine the ride you'll be getting

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:53 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

FWIW, the Pensacola Bay Bridge was closed today at 2 PM CDT, per Mobile television station.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:55 PM

faster motion....

I have been pondering the faster motion as well, and I don't have solid answers, but some thoughts.
First, the sooner this thing passes Frank and everyone else, the better.
Second, it does look to be geting better organized, so it would be nice to get it away from the warm Gulf faster.
Third, I am wondering if this will affect if/when it gets stuck. I need to look closer at other sat pics, but there is a stronger steering current than expected that is doing this obviously.
I am wishcasting now, so warning. I wish that it continues to move so it doesn't get stuck and give some areas rain measured in feet.
The trough in the Atlantic is really digging southward, and the pattern may be amplifying around the system. It does look to be feeling the affects of the next shortwave in the Plains, and maybe that is why it picked up speed. The problem with extrapolating this faster movement is that eventually this trough will pass it by, and then what?

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:57 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Looks like Ivan found a warm water eddy. This storm has about 12 hours to bomb before it moves inland. It also looks like it has wobbled west over the last 2 hours. Now will the NHC shift there track 20 miles to the west at 4pm ?

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/gulfmex.c.gif

meto

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:58 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

IS someone watching these posts 322 mph, plz this isnt funny. and get the god is pissed off of here.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:58 PM

Re: Redbird

I certainly didn't mean to offend anybody with the sig, rather it's a harmless Family Guy reference.

Be that as it may, I changed it.

lilyv

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:59 PM

Re: faster motion....

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Ivan is, unfortunately, looking impressive.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 07:59 PM

Cell Towers

Cell Tower don't get blown down easily...most likely that the power or telephone lines to the site are damaged...the emergency power on cell sites last for about 4-6 hours on battery and as long as there is fuel for sites with generators...not all sites have generators...all have batteries. That is why your service goes down in storms. No reports of down towers from Charley or Frances....just sites without power or antennas moved or damaged.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:00 PM

Re: Yep

That was Ivan's wife not a very nice girl at got to neet her once and that was enough.

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:00 PM

Re: Redbird

I'd appreciate the removal of that "God is p*****" sentiment as well. Besides it made no sense. What did the poor Jamaicans and Grenadians do? And Ivan would have aimed straight for Castro. Although it is a free country its not the time for provocative remarks.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:01 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Meto,

I am watching these posts...I'm checking with Mike on something ATTM; as far as the "Signature" (what appears after your message) I can't touch it...maybe Mike can, but there's nothing I can do about it.

It's been removed now so that should be that.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:01 PM

Re: Redbird

It's all good.....................just was not sure where you were coming from.

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:03 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

That "pentagram thingy" or whatever design within the eye - what's that all about? Is it just because we have a better satellite view or something?

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:04 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

And please, everybody settle down about the 320mph Buoy. Look at ANY other buoy or C-MAN station out there, and you'll see wind speeds fluctuate, and continue to fluctuate before during and after the storm. Even when wind sensors are taken out, they'll still fluctuate in the moments before they finally drop off to zero.

This buoy, on the other hand, is pegged at 322 mph. So there's either some sort of force, as yet unknown to man, that's keeping that anemometer spinning over 325 mph, presumably the max it can report, or THE DAMN THING ISN'T WORKING ANYMORE.

From an engineering standpoint, I can guarantee you it's the latter. There's no 322mph wind, there is however a malfunctioning buoy.

alan

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:05 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

Frances caused the one off Port Canaveral to break off and float away.

But, The bouy with the 272knt winds have been reporting that since 5 a..m. and it is 270 miles from the center of Ivan.

It's broken.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:06 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

re: pentagram thingy...

I'm not exactly sure what it means, but when Isa... reached CAT V status last year, that same "image" appeared. I'm not saying Ivan is about to reach CAT V status (again), just that I noticed the same thing last year. Satellites are improving, although they are the same ones we have had for some time...don't read too much into it...was just making an obs.

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:07 PM

Re: Cell Towers

Thank you Weather Guru.

With love from the Weather Nudnick

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:10 PM

Ivan strengthening?

Does this look like Ivan is still strengthening? Pretty updated image too.

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:14 PM

Re: Ivan strengthening?

It seems so, with that eye becoming more clearer and an better overall sat. presentation.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:16 PM

Re: My Son

I am about to take my wife and son to her mother's house(no trees).My son is 11 has all his playstation gameboy stuff with him" son you're not going to have power before long" his reply "dad there not cover under insurance".Had to laugh "yea you're probably right".

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:16 PM

Re: Franks Bassets

Kent absolutely great advise, wish I would have read it about 10 minutes ago, but too late, I just fed em, cell phone ringing every 10 minutes... might sound disgusting but the can do their personal business on some newspaper in the house if need be... my dogs have a very high priority for me... as all you pet lovers know what I mean

for the record all packed up and can make a quick get away if required... still looking OK for me... still looking north.. TV mets saying I get 100mhp winds max as it stand... with some higher gusts... I have 120 during Elena from the south, so I'm a little encouraged at the moment... but will leave if I see any deviation in track to west... boy this thing has a big friggin eye doesn't it

again, thanks for all the advise and support....

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:18 PM

Jeanne

The 2pm BAM has it going almost west at the 5 day mark. ?

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:18 PM

Re: Ivan strengthening?

Quote:

Does this look like Ivan is still strengthening? Pretty updated image too.

I agree with you LI Phil. If nothing else, the eye is definitely becoming more defined with less cloud interference and a clear circular pattern. It still looks like a large eye as well.

This link - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html - shows definite strengthening on the west side of the storm. What would that mean for the residents of the coast? Will that intensity circle around the storm and hit the coast or will it stay off in the gulf? Also, isn't it unusual for a storm to strengthen when part of it is already affecting the coast?

Questions from a rookie - Thanks

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:19 PM

Ivan's eye

It appears the eye is no longer ragged on satellite imagery, and it is becomming more symmetrical, with the "stadium effect" where there is a great contrast of color around the eye in a very thin area, indicating a near-vertical eyewall

also, there are no high or midlevel clouds in the eye

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:21 PM

Re: Ivan's eye

That can't be good.

Frank...what would happen if the eye were to actually pass over your home? It's like 60 miles wide now...

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:21 PM

Re: speaking of bouys

I was wondering the same thing. With 30 ft+ swells and 42 ft+ waves, I don't see how those things survive. According to the specs the anemometers are about 5M off the platform.

Bill

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:24 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

I have a colorized sat image of Isa with that geometeric pattern in the eye as my desktop background on the computer I'm typing on now.

Bill

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:25 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Can you post it? Might be kinda neat to see it.

Ken-SRQ

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:29 PM

Attachment

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

"cant get the NO radar to load"

If I attach this right, here is KMOB 284 NM at 16:13

For Frank P. - if I placed the curser correctly the approx center of the eye in the attachment is 28.27N 88.21W

Ken

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:30 PM

Re: Ivan's eye

The clouds in the eye almost look like they meldted away. I was surprised the convection bulged to the west the way it did.

The new ETA is coming out. Keep in mind, this has not been a good model on Ivan, and is an off-time model run, but by 48-54 hours, it shows some troughing in the east at 500h. It has lowered heights a little more, which should indicate a stronger trough, and I would think this trough should be able to pull the system away so that hopefully it doesn't sit over the southern App. for days. Caution, though, GFS not out, and steering currents that far out in this pattern are a tough call.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:32 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Intellicast NO radar loaded in about 10 secs.
http://www.tripadvisor.com/Hotel_Review-...y_New_York.html

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:33 PM

Re: Ivan's eye

Forecast overlay seems to show Ivan on track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:34 PM

Dauphin Island Buoy

DPIA1

Holy pressuredrops batman!

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:34 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Whoops...sorry about that, unless you're going to NYC. Try this:

http://intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide...ne&pid=none

(Admin)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:35 PM

Re: Dauphin Island Buoy

Look at the ivan pic I posted on the main article edit... wallpaper material.

Man I really want to see a recon update now. The look of Ivan really isn't... well it isn't good for the Gulf coast.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:35 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

I agree the buoys are probably broken, however, I was just pointing out that a tornado that forms over water is called a waterspout. FYI... here are some facts concerning hurricanes and tornados.

Tropical Cyclone Spawned Tornadoes Facts

10% of deaths in the United States are associated with hurricanes are a result of tornadoes.
Most tornadoes occur within 24 hours after hurricane landfall. The exception is when there is interaction with a cold front after landfall. Then more tornadoes will occur two or three days after landfall, well inland.
Most tornadoes occur within 150 miles of the coastline.
More tornadoes occur during the morning and afternoon rather than evening or night due to the need for a tornado to have a heat source.
The Gulf of Mexico hurricanes produce more tornadoes than Atlantic storms.
The majority of tornadoes occur within 30 miles of the center of the cyclone, but there is a secondary maximum further away in the outer rain bands (100-150 miles away from the center).
Tornado winds can reach up to 300 mph at a forward speed of 60 mph and are usually 100-300 yards wide.

Just one more reason to evacuate if you are in the path.

gonyen

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:36 PM

Re: Ivan's eye

Phil, good question, analyzing the latest recon... max winds are 131mph in the east quad... good for me.... max winds in center is 119 mph in the north, not west, again good for me.... bp not falling a little, not good for me... still going north good for me.... still at 88.2 good for me... in spite of a bad situation, I still have good things going for me...

If the eye were to go right over me, moving s to n, my winds would probably go up an additional 10-30 mph, but surge would still not be a problem.. you really have to be in the east quad to get the dangerous surge, an eye right over me would never give me the southerly winds. winds out of the east then west, no south per se... but the thing that would really kill me, and I use that termly quite loosly at the moment, is if the eye were to go just west of me, and I just don't see that happening, or continuing to hope that does not happen.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:36 PM

Attachment

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Isabel on 9/12/03.

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:37 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

a 42 foot wave was just recorded off Mobile!!the storm is still about 8 hours away

(Admin)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:38 PM

Re: Dauphin Island Buoy

Yep recon has it down to 933 mb, it's getting stronger.

Timbo

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:40 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Any word on the Navarre Bridge or the Pensacola Beach Bridge?

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:41 PM

5:00 Discussion on Jeanne

Good news for FL...sig. shift to rt.
Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.

** WTNT41 KNHC 152034 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

JEANNE TRIED TO FORM AN EYE IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST
AS IT WAS MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. WSR-88D
DATA FROM SAN JUAN INDICATES IT RETAINS A GOOD STRUCTURE ALTHOUGH
THE CURRENT DOPPLER WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
HURRICANE FORCE. THIS AGREES WITH AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH FOUND 57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS IT FLEW
AROUND THE PUERTO RICO COAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE JEANNE ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR JEANNE
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR. WHILE THE
GFDL IS STILL A LEFT OUTLIER...IT HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE
RIGHT IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS.THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF
ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. WHILE THE OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF JEANNE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A
VARIETY OF IDEAS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...FROM
PERSISTING FOR THREE OR MORE DAYS TO QUICK DISSIPATION. MOST
LIKELY ENOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR TO AT LEAST
SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR 48-72 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT...JEANNE SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. ANOTHER
COMPLICATION IS LAND INTERACTION. IF JEANNE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALL BETS WILL BE OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS UNTIL JEANNE MOVES AWAY...AS EVEN SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS
THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE COULD MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 18.4N 66.5W 60 KT...OVER PUERTO RICO
12HR VT 16/0600Z 18.8N 67.7W 65 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 16/1800Z 19.7N 69.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 20.6N 70.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 21.6N 72.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 74.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 26.0N 76.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 29.5N 77.5W 85 KT

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:43 PM

Re: Ivan's eye

Frank...what would happen if the eye were to actually pass over your home? It's like 60 miles wide now...

Mbfly (me) will let y'all know tomorrow !! I'm quite convinced now that it will go over my house. Too bad it will be at night time; would love to take and send pics.

Still haven't had much rain, but wind is starting to howl a bit during the gusts. I've been watching a tall pine in a neighbors yard a few doors down and I think it's alredy leaning a little.

Boy, I am not looking forward to the next 12-16 hrs !!

After I lose communications, the next thing y'all will probably hear from me will be from Baltimore, MD. If I make it through the storm, I am not staying for the aftermath !

Prayers please !

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:43 PM

Re: 5:00 Discussion on Jeanne

Correcting myself (again). Read the Jeanne update too quickly...the GFS is shifting to rt, not track generally.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:44 PM

Re: Dauphin Island Buoy

Quote:

Yep recon has it down to 933 mb, it's getting stronger.

Ivan is strenghening
This is one mean hurricane!!!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:47 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Ken, if you're right then its moving due north.... I'd take 88.2 all night long.... hell, I might even drink a little crown to that...

ever think you'd be happen just to get 100-110 mph winds.... intense hurricanes can do that for you....

as it stands right now, this MIGHT not be as bad for me as Elena, which was bad enough, but I suffered no serious house damage, lost a few shinges and had a few holes in roof from oak limbs...... I can only continue to hope this plays out...

one thing that 's interesting being on the west side of a strong storm... the coast is lined with a plethora off oak trees along the beach, the strong winds blow off large limbs adn branches from the trees and you can see the up in the sky flying off into the ms sound... its so cool to see, in the past, I've gotten a lawn chair in the front yard and watch all the fireworks with the oak limbs and north winds.... I was younger then and will not do that tonight if I stay..

channel six NO says we should only get 70-90 mph winds, with gusts to 100+, that's the best news I've heard all day if it comes to fruition.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:47 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

JUst heard that fox news reprted a 40 wave

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:47 PM

Re: Ivan's eye

>>> Mbfly (me) will let y'all know tomorrow !! I'm quite convinced now that it will go over my house. Too bad it will be at night time; would love to take and send pics.

Ummmm...I am assuming you mean venturing out during the passage of the eye? Might not be a good idea...just me though.

jaybythebay

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:48 PM

Re: Ivan's eye

This will my last post for sometime. I will try to upload some pictures when power returns to Mobile. I'm not that close to the bay as my name implies. Mrs. M be safe and God bless.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:49 PM

Getting stronger

If you run this satellite option on 48 hrs, it's now just as impressive as it was as a Cat 5 off western Cuba:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat...amp;overlay=off

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:49 PM

Re: Ivan's eye

good luck Jay

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:54 PM

Re: Pensacola Christian College

Can anyone tell me anything about the safety of Pensacola Christian College buildings? I have a daughter there. They have evacuated to lower level buildings, but are keeping the kids on campus. It looks like they are going to get slammed regardless of where this comes ashore.

I appreciate this site. This has been my best source of info for Charley, Francis and now Ivan. I'm in Central Florida, about 15 miles south of where the turnpike and I75 meet, in Bushnell, so Francis came very close.

Just very worried about the daughter at college! Ginni in Bushnell, FL

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:56 PM

Re: Ivan's eye

Got some serious temp. indifferences going on I would think by the colors definitly deeping.I notice that too the W and SW looking strong right now.Gotta go wife and kid waiting.

Storm Cooper

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:56 PM

Re: Pensacola Christian College

JK just had a tornado go right by the tower cam on PCB.

Coop

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:56 PM

4:00 advisory

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html

Might be time for the Crown Frank...I think you just got yer northward news! Good luck!

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 08:59 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

5:00 discussion of Ivan:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt4.html

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:00 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

Check out this bouy reading!!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

AND THAT WAS 2 HOURS OLD! WOW!

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:03 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

Unless I'm reading it wrong, those numbers were recorded at 1850z...it's now 2100z...still though

Ken-SRQ

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:03 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Frank,
110 is plenty! That's about what Alica had in 1983, which was the only time I have been hit head one by a major hurricane. That was enough. You never seem to forget the noise, or the house shaking in the wind gusts...

The lat lon are taken from the Gibson Ridge GRW Level 3 software. I think that they are pretty accurate since they match up to the lat lon of the radar sites.

Just remember that I am not an official source of information - just an accountant taking his best guess!

Ken

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:04 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

"A buoy about 75 miles south of Dauphin Island reported 50 ft seas.... "

This is about to get serious...!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:05 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

I had just edited my post while you were posting to clarify that Phil. Thanks for catching my error. Still pretty dang impressive to be 2 hrs plus old.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:06 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

This is the buoy I was thinking of in an earlier post when I was wondering how much these buoys can take. If it has not reported now for 2 hours, maybe a 42 ft wave was too much? Or one higher than that?

Update: it did report in, but it appears that the instrument that measures wave height is no longer functioning. Last hour the max wave height was 42 ft and the swells were 32.5. But remember this is out in the open water 64 nm from land.

Bill

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:08 PM

Re: Pensacola Christian College

he got excited but stayed with it.. great video. its storming here. tornados everywhere here.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:09 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

Bill I think something is wrong with the site. All seem to be 2 hrs old.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:15 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

I just looked at last report was 3:50 CDT, which was about 20 minutes ago. I think maybe it missed reporting in last time around, but caught up? I don't know how sophisticated the reporting features are, but they seem to be better than they used to be.

Bill

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:15 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

Frank if Ivan goes due N then the eyewall on the W side comes in at 88.6'.Me and you are roughly at 90' that's 24 miles from the eyewall that is going to be tough.The one good thing he's moving.
Got to add going to be a whole heck of alot difference than being on the E side.They will get hammered.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:17 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

I sure hope so Phil, looks a real solid north right now with no westerly component... I can live with 88.3.... looks awesome on IR.... and any shift to the east as forecasted will only help out...just talked to my brother in Mobile, they're getting some good gusts... its still quite in Biloxi, tides about 3 feet above normal but surf is cool, something we don't have around here..

Yeah 110 mph is tough, but I've experience 170 plus with Camille, at least 120 to 125 with Elena, 90 to 100 with Georges... and there is NO comparison for me with north winds vs south winds.... .... I'll take that 100-110 north wind all night long as opposed to what poor Mobile will be getting...

I'll post as long as I can, with updates from my brother in Mobile....

fp

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:23 PM

the good news...

for Frank P (I bet a lot on this board will be having a drink or three tonight after this wild ride) is of course bad news for countless others.

Fortunately, because of this board (or maybe in spite of it

) I just hope everyone in Ivan's path has done everything they could possibly do to be prepared. Hell is coming, there's no escaping that, and the aftermath could be even worse than imagined...

IF there is anyone still out there who has not made every precaution to protect life and limb, you don't have much time left...at this point, if you are still undecided about leaving, you would probably be better off staying or going to the nearest shelter...not trying to flee up north.

Good luck...

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:27 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

Javlin, we're at 89, but your right, on its present track, with no wobbles either side we will be on the extreme outer edge of the western eye wall.... its going to be very rough, but it within my criteria for riding out the storm... you're only two blocks north of me, the thing about being on the beach with the north wind, it has to pass through the entire country before it gets to me, which helps knock it down somewhat.... actually being on the beach is an advantage with a north wind.... Ivan would have to do something really screwy right now to get me in the eastern quad, last night I was not to sure, hell, at 4 in the morning I was not to sure, I feel better about it right now... I just hope it doesn't bomb before landfall.....

Jav, not sure when we'll lose power, but I'd imagine around 10 ish or so... thanks for coming by this afternoon, nice to have a face to go with the post..

good luck fella

Shalafi

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:29 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

First reply. I've been addicted to this site since just before Charley. I want to thank everyone here for your links, opinions, info and concern. I wanted to post a link that I find interesting in comparing storms.
Mods, if I post this wrong I'm sorry.
Local 6 Storm Tracker

Keep up the good work and thanx for explaining things to those of us who basically know "That thing is spinning" and not much else.

Bryan
P.S. The site isn't updated as often as it should be but it's still a great look.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:29 PM

Recon

Recon just gave their last report. Next lowlevel recon should be there in about two hours.

Bill

GaryC

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:31 PM

New spaghetti runs for jeanne

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp

Maggie'sMom

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:35 PM

Re: the good news...

Frank, could you tell me, based on what you've heard, what Pascagoula can expect if the north motion continues? Thanks. Getting real nervous here in Montgomery and not being able to get the kind of news I want. Please be safe.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:35 PM

Re: New spaghetti runs for jeanne

Is there no end to the weather madness? I've gotten almost no sleep for a week (and I'm sure I ain't alone). Maybe Jeanne can come up my way and take some of FL's pain for once...I don't want it here of course, but anywhere's better than Florida.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:37 PM

Re: 4:00 advisory

I hope everyone stays safe. No use in trying to tough it out if your on the immediate coast. GET TO A SHELTER! For those inland my prayers are said for everyone. The worst after the storm is having no power for awhile. Be patient and help thy neighbor.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:38 PM

7th strongest cane

New Orleans TV 6 just said that right now (based on BP) Ivan is the 7th strongest cane on record.... I didn't verify this as a fact just reporting what I heard...

geesh..... my heart goes out to S MS, all coastal AL and NW FL. ... they are going to take the brunt of this monster storm..

it will be a night they/we will never forget....

heck we still have lookie lu's riding up and down the front beach on us 90....

for the record..... the final hurricane prep.... my first long glass of crown to sooth the nerves...

Shalafi

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:38 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Wow! Thanx for posting that. Beautiful storm..Charley was my first hurricane and I was scared spitless at home. Frances didn't scare me because I knew what to expect and I was at work (hospital) which was unkool but the storm was fun for me. The thought of this beast coming to us frightened me like nobodies business...I wish it had died and not harmed anyone but I'm thankful it didn't hit us...

Cathy

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:43 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

CNN - just reported that the tornado sighted near Panama City did touch down, damaged a building, and caused injuries.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:44 PM

the bulge

hi,

would the bulgeing on the west side of ivan be a precursor to a turn? or is this just new conviction blowing up?

sorry frankP, just wondering.

most up-to-date sat loops i have found.

http://antares.esl.lsu.edu/

wm

Ken-SRQ

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:45 PM

Attachment

Re: 7th strongest cane

BTW, nice board. I discovered it during Frances and have lurked since then.

Another radar pic, this time from Slidell. The red dot in the eye is located at 28.49N 88.19W. Ivan seems to be making a beeline for the MS-AL border.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:46 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Frank, it looks like it is moving at worst (for you) at 360, or maybe just a hair right of due north. The large, well-defined eye passed a few miles right of the forecast overlay. Forecast track seems to be verifying well.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:48 PM

Re: the good news...

MM, my best take on all this, not good for Pascagoula, but believe it or not it could be worse, especially if it wobbles a little to the west on landfall... got to hope for a little more drift to the east but I'm not sure if that is going to come.... as it stands right now they should get the full brunt of both the north and south eye walls, bad, bad, bad, but NOT dreaded east quad with the 16 foot storm surge....... still extremely bad... I can't sugar coat this... this is the only storm in my life that I seriously considered evacuating.... my a car is still packed in case something strange happens.... ... tree damage will be unbelievable.... I not sure how the surge will be in goula, but it should not be as bad as what the east quad will get... best guess, 6-10 feet max... still bad...

the strip of commerical activity on the west side of Mobile near the USS Alabama Battleship area will not be there after tonight.. this area will see catastrophic damage.... and worse than Fredrick..

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:50 PM

NRL sat

Man, you can really see that pentagram vortices within the eyewall with this one...beautiful and oh so scary at the same time...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:51 PM

Check The Wind Speeds

wow....check the the wind speeds in these for tonight:

Local Forecast

Local Forecast Graph

rhendryx

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:52 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

tornadic activity in Panama City Beach....

Got this from Channel 13 there....
A tornado generated by Hurricane Ivan has touched down on Panama City Beach at about 3:40 CDT today.

Bay County Sheriff's office has closed down portions of Thomas Drive and Front Beach Road until a damage assessment can be done. There are late unconfirmed reports of possible injuries to an office who were patroling the area at the time.

Sheriff's spoksperson, Ruth Sasser, confirmed that there are injuries and people trapped in damaged structures on Panama City Beach.

This was one of several tornados that were spawned by the first significant rain bands from Hurricane Ivan.

Panama City and the surrounding area area continue to experience tornadic activity.

Also, read on another website a message saying that Jason Kelley's Tv station studio's were hit by a tornado, however, I have not been able to confirm that. There have been a lot of prank postings on that other site, so this may have been incorrect information....but checking.

Prayers to Jason and his wife and their children.

Best to all,

bob

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:54 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

one dead confirmed. and talk of a second unconfirmed. i keep getting booted. have aol at home and it cooperating.think we have had 6 tornados on the ground. the death came from the one that passed over jason

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:54 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

MrSpock, that is absolutely great news... as Phil said, my good news is someone else's bad new, I'm really concerned about my brother in Mobile, he is in a high risk area relative to large pine trees... ...

now if I can just get a little more east out of him, I might take on the whole bottle of crown and just sleep throught this damn storm... I bet I have not had more than 10 hours of sleep in the past 4 days... and I bet most of you are as sleep deprived as me...

I will not take down my plywood until December!

this years hurricane season is more than I can take.... no mass

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:56 PM

Re: NRL sat

That is an amazing picture, I don't know if I have ever seen anything like that before.

Maggie'sMom

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:57 PM

Re: the good news...

Thanks Frank P for not sugar coating it. I dread the drive down I65 if and when we get to head back to what's left of Goula. I'm scarded to death of what I might or might not find.

Not feeling real secure here in Montgomery. I have a brother in Montgomery. His wife is 8 1/2 months pregnant. We came here because of family and DOGS. Yes, I'm one of those people too, Frank P. Seems like we'll get really rough weather here. Thanks again. You will be in my thoughts.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:58 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

I wish your brother were with you. I would not want to be there either. Is it too late for him to leave?
As you said, sadly, someone will see the center of the storm.
Please let us know how your brother is too if you find out. Hopefully his cell phone will still work.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 09:59 PM

Re: the bulge

wm. I don't think so,someone else might like to address this question, he looks solid on the north motion.... now if the eye were to elongate say nw to se, then I might get worried.... but its concentric as I've ever seen, almost perfect for an eye.

I just lost power... strange., they must have shut down the grids... bassets are pissed and barking like.... hound dawgs...

WannabeMete

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:00 PM

Live TV Coverage from Mobile

Just wanted to give the link for NBC 15 in Mobile

NBC 15 Live TV

I've been viewing this website for a year, since Isabel went through MD. Well, now I'm in TN, so I guess Im in for a repeat performance. I feel like I know a few of you alredy from reading it so much. Good luck to all of you in the Gulf Area.

rhendryx

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:01 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

from channel 13 in Panama City Beach

Update: One confirmed death occurred on Panama City Beach as a result of this tornado. There are reports of several houses with significant damage or possibly destroyed by this tornado.

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:02 PM

Re: the bulge

Just before the you-know-what hit the fan with Charley, the power grid was turned off down here. I think they do that so when the branches start ripping down lines, etc, people don't get electrocuted. Or something. What the heck. All I know is that I am vicariously reliving that horrible afternoon through your experience and it's not fun.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:05 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

said hamiltons (next to capt. andersons) took a hit too. it has been real squally here with groups of tornado's. surge is up quite a bit too. haven't been able to check height though because of the squalls. wind is not that bad but gusty when the cells come through. (sorry for spelling)

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:10 PM

Webcams!

webcams:
St George Island
http://www.beachview.com/st_george_is_320.htm

Gulf Shores
http://www.gulflive.com/beachcam/

Fairhope Alabama on Mobile Bay
http://www.liveeyenet.com/pier.htm

a list of them
http://www.gulf-shores-alabama.net/gulf-shores-beach-cam.html

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:10 PM

Re: the bulge

cool, on the sat link i posted it shows some heavy rain
building on the west side.

good luck, will be a cool one to see pass by. too bad it will be at night.

wm

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:11 PM

models

The ETA, and now that the GFS is out, both show Ivan being picked up by the next trough, so hopefully it won't stall in the mountains. 1 run does not a trend make, but I'd rather spread out the heavy rains over a large area, then concentrate them in one area. Let's see if this turns into a model trend.
The next issue is, if this happens, what happens to Jeanne? Does it recurve before Florida? We'll see, too soon to tell.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:15 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

will do, we stay in contact ever hour... winds picking up right now... gusts to about 35 I would imagine...

I told him that if I was in his shoes I would get the hell outta there.... gave him the matress advice too...

damn, its dark as hell in here....

He's hearing that there are rumors its going to go more east towards Pen, can anyone confirm that???

I'll be loging off every now and then to conserve battery power, I want to get as many miles to the gallon tonight as I can...

right now, this board is my best friend and I certainly don't feel alone....

thanks

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:16 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

I am glad you are still okay and your pooches too.. check in as often as batteries allow........................hang on tight!

BabyCat

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:18 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

looks north
someone else??

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:19 PM

So I get home in Clearwater...

Hey, I'm on the bayside of Clearwater, FL. Just got home from work, and what do I find? water in my back and side yards... anyone have any idea on the time frame for highest water over here in the Tampa area? Anyone got any sandbags? heh...

Seriously, any suggestions people, I know my situation is no where near as serious... but it's still a bit vexxing

Mark
(This hasn't been the best greeting to have when you move somewhere... bloody hurricanes)

Timbo

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:19 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Frank - You may want to go into your pwer setup on your laptop and turn everything way down e.g. hard drive, etc., it will save power and eloingate the life span. I'm sitting in Dallas but thinking of you and the rest of the folks on the Gulf Cost since I spent close to 15 years there!

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:19 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

I can't, but I am only looking at radar and satellite. I actually don't know if any forecasters are making that call. It looks basically due north for the current motion.

CentralFlorida

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:20 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Frank the weather station here in central florida brought up that hurricanes like to hook right just before land fall....if that holds true will you be better off??

rhendryx

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:20 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

latest from news 13 panama city beach

A tornado generated by Hurricane Ivan touched down on Panama City Beach on Wednesday afternoon.

One death has been confirmed from this Panama City Beach tornado.

There is also another death reported in the Sandy Creek area of Callaway where two houses were reportedly flattened. Bay County Sheriff's Office has not confirmed this 2nd death.

rule

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:21 PM

Darwin Award

Well, my sister which lives in Mobile has decided they are staying. This is after 10 days of saying "If it comes NEAR us we're gone!"

She's about 10 miles West of Mobile. No trees near the house, but in a large natural clearing so no wind break either. House has poor roof shape for winds. Steep gable type. If the roof doesn't come off it's still going to the shake the house up.

They had no reason to stay. Pretty dumb.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:21 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

It looks like Ivan is dodging Buras was going straight at it kicked right see it real good on the goes VIS.Strange we've seen this before let's hope I put up all these boards for no reason.

Maybe I should go have drink now not seeing things right go talk to the dog.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:24 PM

Re: the bulge

didn't mean to bring back bad memories.... I think your experience similar to what the poor people east of the center will feel...

thanks redbird.. .will do

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:28 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Here's a link to the tornado story in PCB:

http://www.wmbb.com/servlet/Satellite?pa...70486&path=

In a thread last night, I mentioned the massive hook echos off the coast of Tampa and my fear that these were tornadic. It looks like that has been confirmed in the worst possible way, unfortunately.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:29 PM

Question

since the use of names for hurricanes was there a season where we got to the end of the list? Cause at this rate...

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:29 PM

Re: the bulge

I just spoke with my parents and they are staying put in Ocean Springs. Nothing for me to do but worry myself to pieces. They are by a canal and the water is already rising. They will call me every few hours,
Helen

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:32 PM

Re: Question

No, I think within the last 10 years we got to the "T" storm, but I would need to check that before I call it a fact. I forgot the rules for if you go through the alphabet.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:32 PM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

TImbo, great advise... done... also I have an AC/DC convert that plugs into car and can recharge the batteries...

Cen Fl... any move to the right will help... I heard that same analysis earlier tonight, for my sake I hope it holds true, but that just makes worse somewhere else...

boy, it got hot in here in a hurry.. how did people live without AC... .

I'm going to log off for about an hour, need to go outside and maybe catch a little breeze then eat supper... come to think of it I have not eaten anything since lunch yesterday.. now that's strange for me.... Oh, I think I hear Mr. Crown calling again too...

be back online in a while, providing land line still working

thanks to all.....

later

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:34 PM

Re: Question

The most storms we've ever had in a season was 21, I think that was in 1933 (?). If they were named then, we would have gotten to the end of the list. NHC does not use Q,U,X,Y, or Z in their lists, so there are 21 names each year.

In 1995 we got to T, with 19 storms. I have begun to wonder if they will soon do away with I as well, since they have retired Isadore, Isabel, and will retire Ivan this year. There aren't a lot of I names left...

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:37 PM

Re: Question

They may have to replace the "I" storms with "ME" storms.

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:37 PM

Re: Question

I would just name them according to the Greek alphabet, easy and simple.

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:39 PM

Re: the bulge

Everyone in the path needs to hunker down and take this thing seriously. I'm in Central Florida and used to get somewhat excited about these things. It was almost a holiday atmosphere at the grocery store. That was before this season.

Jack Love

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:39 PM

Re: Question

"I" is becoming an unlucky letter for storms. Of course if they do away with it, the fierce storms will then all begin with "J."

I recall reading somewhere that if we got past "W", then the next names would be Alpha, Bravo, Charlie (though not this year I guess), etc. I will see if I can locate that link again.

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:42 PM

Re: Question

Charley, I think you mean Delta the Greek Alphabet.

No, that's military terminology...And I might add that delta is the FOURTH letter in the greek alphabet...alpha, beta, gamma, delta...

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:42 PM

Re: Question

If U say so Mr. Spock.

In all seriousness, there's plenty of time to discuss naming conventions in, say mid-December. Sorry to get off-topic (LI Phil is gonna get me!).

We've had multiple fatalities from both Ivan and Jeanne today, so I think we have to keep that in mind in our discussions and remember that for every one that posts here, there are many more trying to get important info from us, pros or otherwise.

Unless you curse, attack or make an assinine comment, I'm not touching anything...

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:43 PM

Re: Question

That said, I'm out for a bit as I have to make the trek home.

rule

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:43 PM

Re: Question

When is expected landfall for eye? It looks like Ivan has picked up speed, although it may just look like it because of the landmass to make reference to.

meto

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:46 PM

Re: models

i am hearing that a strong high will come out of canada and come southeastand block ivan from going east and turn jeanne more to west toward fla. also karl may form from a strong wave in east atlantic.

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:47 PM

Re: Question

The eye on doppler seems to be deformed, maybe just a glitch or the begining of another ERC.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:49 PM

Re: models

The 18z runs are doing less of that, as they are digging the trough stronger (both models) which picks up Ivan a little more. The problem is, I doubt either one has initialized Jeanne well. My skepticism comes from the fact that even though they both do that, this is the first time they show it, and it is on an off-time run. New data doesn't get fed in until 0z.
I want to see them do it a few more times before I am convinced, but at least for now, they are trending stronger with a trough in the east. Hopefully it's enough.

rule

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:52 PM

Re: Question

Wow, take a look at the Tallahassee radar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.ktlh.shtml

Are those "hook" echos?

StormKrone

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:53 PM

Re: 7th strongest cane

Hello to All…

As Yogi would say, Déjà vu, all over again!!!

When I was a girl….many, many long eons ago..

my father took me with him to visit a Marine Corps buddy who was a Ham operator. I don’t remember the name or location of the hurricane, but we talked to folks in and around the threatened area. That memory has stayed with me for almost half a century.

Reading the posts on this board remind me so much of that experience. The knowledge that is shared, the heartfelt wishes sent to those in harm’s way, a camaraderie that transcends age and technical know-how. Thank you to all for sharing..

Re: the earlier question about open/closed windows --- this is how I remember it. We cracked a window on the “calm” side and then reversed the process when the wind changed direction. Can’t remember why, just that we did. Might have had something to do with having jalousie windows. Do people still use those? Haven’t seen them in years.

I have been following storms since that experience as a girl... and, as a 4th generation Floridian (partly raised on the Space Coast), I have ridden through a few, including one while living on the barrier islands of Brevard Co. (not something I would recommend). HOWEVER , I have been living far away for the past 18 years!!! I currently live in Crawfordville (Wakulla Co.), and things have been pretty calm, so far. We are as prepared as can be and I am more concerned with tornadoes in my location. We have already had a tornado spotted in north Leon Co.

I will now go back to my wallflower position (don’t like the word “lurker”). Keep up the good work and my prayers to all.

SK

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:57 PM

Re: Question

On my personal radar system, it is telling me that there is very dangerous tornadic activity. I can't imagine what a CAT 5 looks on doppler radar.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:57 PM

Re: Question

If I am reading it right (and being from the middle of the country, I don't ever use lat and lon) buoy 42040is almost directly in Ivan's path? Is this correct? And what are the odds that this buoy remains functional throughout the storm?

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:01 PM

Re: Question

seems like buoy 42040 is not reporting wave height anymore. alsow dpia1 buoy is not reporting tide either. not sure what that means...

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:05 PM

Puerto Rico

SKY WARN SPOTTER REPORTED 7 INCHES OF RAIN...ESTIMATED 100 MPH WIND GUSTS...AND A CALM LASTING 30 MINUTES

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:06 PM

Re: Question

Actually it is due North of Ivan, and might be in the eye already. It is at 29.2 N 88.2 W and the 6:00 PM CDT location of Ivan is 28.8 N 88.2 W. It reported in last hour, it will be interesting if it reports in this hour as it should be in the eye.

Also pressure down to 931 in 6 PM CDT advisory.

Bill

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:06 PM

Re: Question

Watch out Mobile, some nasty rain bands are become stronger off the coast, 2 to 3 inch per hour rainfall estimates. Tornados with that one too, should make landfall in about 30 mins. WATCH OUT

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:10 PM

Re: Getting Breezy

The trees are just about in a constant motion now it's pulsing
the lights have flickered some in the last few minutes.I think it is getting about time to cycle the puter down.Hopefully be back on line in a few days.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:11 PM

rickontheboat

isn't Ivan his wish? I hope he is ok...

meto

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:11 PM

Re: models

this was on key west and melb. discussions. a strong canadian high is coming down this weekend and will block jeanne. not a trof.

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:12 PM

Re: the bulge

No worries. Days before Charley, for a bit of light reading, I read, "Killer 'Cane" about the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane. Talk about spooking yourself before a storm!

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:14 PM

Re: rickontheboat

As do we all wish the best for rickonboat, Frank P, javelin, Jason, Steve and the rest of you that are in this storm's path or have family in this storm's path.

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:15 PM

Re: 7th strongest cane

Wakulla resident too, currently in Orlando.....glad to see the Wakulla report, thanks!

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:15 PM

Re: models

Then how come the NHC has the hurricane recurving if there's a strong Canadian high coming down? Doesn't a strong Canadian high form as the result of a strong Canadian low.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:15 PM

Re: Question

Yes, Tanya, 1995.

meto

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:19 PM

Re: models

no it doesnt read key west and melbourne discussions.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:20 PM

Re: models

High is at the surface, the trough is aloft. High comes down the back side of the trough.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_060m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_060m.gif

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:20 PM

Re: Question

Shout out to all the lurkers who have registered and begun posting. Many boards have their good qualities, but CFHC has always had that personal feel /mush off

As to the Pensacola Christian question, I'm sure they know what they are doing. I haven't been following Pensacola on the local sites, but it would appear they will take a pretty vicious hit. If the school believes they should be on the lower floors, and assuming they are in a brick structure, they're probably going to be okay. I'm only guessing but the reasons they probably are moving your daughter and her fellow students to the lower floors is a) windspeeds are much lower at the ground than they are at like 40' (and ^ of course). b) It doesn't flood in Pensacola (and other NWFL coastal communities) the way it does in other cities. The soil is very sandy. The land slopes down to the Gulf from reasonable elevations. There is ample natural areas (including lawns) to absorb deluges, etc. The Beachs can flood with tidal surges, and theoretically, a setup could be there to empty the sound or bay onto adjacent land areas (Gulf Breeze, etc.).

She should be okay, but she'll have some frayed nerves. Hopefull, there will be a lot more praying than swearing since it's a Christian college afterall

.
-----------------------------------------------
Nothing ever really happened in New Orleans. Report from here is a windy day off of work. For whatever reason, the rainshield hasn't been able to build over to Jefferson Parish. Louisiana's worst hit was probably down in lower Plaquemins (boot of LA) - Boothville, Venice, Buras, etc. and then lower St. Bernard. Some of the wind gusts down in Buras were upper TS before the reporter moved north 60 miles. Supposedly Belle Chase Highway south of Ft. Jackson (60 miles s. of Belle Chase and home of the sweetest citrus on the planet) is closed. And LA Highway 1 leading down to Grand Isle is closed somewhere around Fouchon or Golden Meadow. It's blowing pretty good here, but it's just a nice night. I've got a bunch of windows and doors open blowing the crud out of the house

. I'd say max gusts are probably upper 30's/low 40's. Clouds keep rolling by from the NE (feeder bands without the rain).

Looks like the heaviest rainfall (can't confirm because NWS is running too slow when you can even get it) seems to be from Panama City Eastward toward the Apalachee Bay communities. (*best gust of the night - blew a bunch of stuff off this desk*)
-------------------------------------------------
As to the flooded yard in Tampa Bay, was that rainwater or tidal?
----------------------------------------------------
Frank P - This Abita Fallfest is for you.

Steve

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:22 PM

Re: Question

Seems there's some confusion - the Navy (?) used to identify storms with the old Phonetic Alphabet -- Able, Baker, etc which in today's system would be Alpha Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot (not to be confused with the Greek letters Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, etc, but I digress).

Anyways, back in '98 I believe, the local TV meteorologist said that if they run out of names on the NHC list, they would then start using names spelled with the Greek alphabet, starting with Alpha. And no, I'm not too sure myself how that would work

Stay safe everybody.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:22 PM

Re: models

Some of the models had Ivan stalling out and blocking that high from coming down as far.

But even if it comes down, Jeanne might slip between the current high it is traveling along and the one coming down if Ivan pushes through between them.

The high could also come down and keep Jeanne from going north, this is what the GFDL was saying earlier today, but has now shifted right also to be more in line with the other models.

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:24 PM

Re: rickontheboat

Whaddya ya know...not a Cat 5 at the moment, but Rick's continuous prediction came true...

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:24 PM

Re: rickontheboat

Latest airport observations.
Gulfport-030 23 g 43kts 29.50"
Pascagoula-030 23g31kts 29.47" pressure falling rapidly!!
Mobile-050 27g36kts 29.55"
Mobile Downtown- 040 29g37kts 29.52"
I believe Pascagoula will be closer to landfall than Mobile airport. Base dto the current pressure, and pressure trend.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:26 PM

Re: rickontheboat

Let's see who can finish this quote first...I haven't been able to get this tune out of my head since yesterday...

"the bricks lay on Grand Street
Where the neon madmen climb.
They all fall there so perfectly,
It all seems so well timed.
An' here I sit so patiently
Waiting to find out what price
You have to pay to get out of
Going through all these things twice.
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be..."

here's to rickonboat and mbfly!

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:29 PM

Re: rickontheboat

Down on Main Street- Bob Segar

meto

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:29 PM

Re: models

read the key west melb. sites. models can change. this is not till weekend.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:30 PM

Re: rickontheboat

>>> Down on Main Street- Bob Segar

close but no stogie...and it's seger

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:32 PM

PHIL....

don't mean to seem selfish.. but i am in miami.. what's your take on Jeanne and a huge curve they are forcasting.. i know its early.. but do you have any ideas?

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:33 PM

Re: models

I know, models are already changing. I'm telling everyone that asks me that we are not going to know what Jeanne is going to do until the end of the week.

Bill

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:35 PM

Re: rickontheboat

dylan ?
Stuck inside of Mobile with the memphis blues again.
Helen

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:35 PM

Re: PHIL....

You're not selfish at all, as this will probably be Hurricane Jeanne by 11...

I'm not really all that well qualifed to answer your question...but...I think it's GREAT news for ALL of florida...you're almost entirely out of the cone...too far off to tell...Scottsvb made one helluva 5 day on saturday, maybe he wants to take a stab at it..

As we have all learned this year, one cannot put too much in anything past 72 hours (3 days) so by Saturday we should have a much better handle on where Jeanne wants to go.

I'll go with my standard (ala rick) Hattaras then up towards me...

Of course I'll be wrong, but one of these days I'll get one right...

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:36 PM

Re: PHIL....

Excuse me but anyone may exercise the opportunity to be selfish during the 04 Cane season. Since Fl seems ot be getting More than their fair share.
I don't buy the hard recurvature "cone". Haven't looked at the models, but the current ridge would have to break down very fast to get a curve like that. IMHO

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:37 PM

Re: rickontheboat

Helen/mojorox...we have a winner!

You had to figure there'd be SOME connection to this storm, no?

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:38 PM

Re: PHIL....

Quote:

You're not selfish at all, as this will probably be Hurricane Jeanne by 11...

I'm not really all that well qualifed to answer your question...but...I think it's GREAT news for ALL of florida...you're almost entirely out of the cone...too far off to tell...Scottsvb made one helluva 5 day on saturday, maybe he wants to take a stab at it..

As we have all learned this year, one cannot put too much in anything past 72 hours (3 days) so by Saturday we should have a much better handle on where Jeanne wants to go.

I'll go with my standard (ala rick) Hattaras then up towards me...

Of course I'll be wrong, but one of these days I'll get one right...

Thank you... i have hurricane anxiety... as i am sure millions of people do this season.. i am going to buy stock in Zoloft!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:39 PM

Re: rickontheboat

Last 20 minutes there have been at least 2 gusts up into the 40's that knocked a few smaller limbs off of my pecan trees. That's better than the twigs and leaves we've seen so far

. Checked the NO/BR NWS and it showed gusts at Lakefront to 53 in the hour. I'm thinking 45+ with the last two. I guess there's a shot at some decent winds tongiht afterall with the eye coming closer (not directional but distance).

Steve

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:40 PM

Re: PHIL....

The BoatUS Spaghetti map shows about 2/3rd of the models curving North well offshore, the other 1/3rd trend west either South of or into Florida. I won't venture a guess myself until another 36-48 have passed and we have a better picture of what that ridge is doing.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:41 PM

Dylan

Like a hurricane.

Oh great, now I'm humming Scorpion songs...that ain't good...LOL!

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:43 PM

Re: rickontheboat

Looks like a little E in there.

gonyen

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:45 PM

Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Is their any way Ivan goes back up to lets say 145-150 mph or even more?Please respond everyone

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:45 PM

Re: rickontheboat

Quote:

Last 20 minutes there have been at least 2 gusts up into the 40's that knocked a few smaller limbs off of my pecan trees. Steve

Just had our biggest wind gust here as well. Weather bug site has gusts recorded as 40's, I'd venture a guess that the one we just had was an easy 50. I watched several small branches fly past my door.Starting to feel a little like Dorothy in the Wizard of OZ.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:46 PM

Re: rickontheboat

I think Ivan's startin' to hook a little.

gonyen

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:48 PM

Re: Live TV Coverage from Mobile

Does anyone else have any live news feed links for the affected areas?

Bruce

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:48 PM

Re: rickontheboat

Ivan NNE

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:51 PM

Re: rickontheboat

stuck inside of mobile with those memphis blues again

teach1st

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:52 PM

Re: rickontheboat

..to be stuck inside of Mobile with the Memphis blues again..

Bob Dylan

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:55 PM

Re: rickontheboat

kinda at a break in weather here. calmed down quite a bit. had a gust of 43 earlier. winds probably 20-25. the tornado's are what is getting us. they are finally moving to the north. jason says get ready for round 2 as ivan comes ashore. don't know how much rain we have had but i drained the pool this morning and had to drain it down again about a hour ago. dock is underwater and just about over the seawall and we have high tide at midnight. frank i wish the best you are a whole lot closer than we are.btw was debating on staying home or going to inlaws. they had a tornado go over them. lost trees and have had now power since around 3. city of parker has curfew because of all the damage.glad we stayed home. lights have flickered but still on. tv said beach erosion will be bad. sorry to ramble but thats what is going on in pc

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:57 PM

Re: Dylan

"Like a eagle in the sky of an hurricane that's abandoned, here come's the sandman..." I got that song stuck in my head, can't stop humming the tune. The Eagles rule.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:01 AM

Re: rickontheboat

tnx for your report from PCB andy

How about some country lyrics? anyone?

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:05 AM

Re: rickontheboat

Yeah...JK just PMed me...I imagine he'll post here soon.

Keith234, the eagles may rule but those lyrics are by America...

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:06 AM

Re: rickontheboat

In a couple of days some kid up in NC/VA might be able to say...

I was born in a cross-fire hurricane
And I howled at my Ma in the drivin' rain

ah the stones...is Keith Richards still amongst the living?

gonyen

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:07 AM

ocean springs

I just spoke with my folks. Power just went out. Some small gusts and the water has risen a bit more in the canal by the house. They are going to check back in at ten.
Helen

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:08 AM

Re: rickontheboat

America did that Sandman
---------------------------------------
Phil, it could have just as easily have been a Neil Young reference. Sky just went electric yellow here. Sometimes nearby to late afternoon t-storms or clouds, the sky will turn orange, pink, blue, green, etc. (even when I'm sober). This one's got that yellow tinted sunglasses feel to it.

Steve

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:08 AM

Link to TV News

Try this link:

http://www.n4m.com/tvstates.html

Gives you links to every TV station in the U.S. If they have a tower cam, etc. you can link to it from here.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:09 AM

Re: rickontheboat

HEY- IS THERE ANY CHANCE THAT IVAN WILL TURN NE ANY TIME SOON? WE'VE HAD LOTS OF TORNADO WARNINGS IN SW GEORGIA. FORTUNATELY WE HAVEN'T DEALT WITH LOTS OF WIND. BUT THE TORNADOS ARE MY CONCERN OVER IN OUR CORNER.

Shalafi

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:09 AM

Re: rickontheboat

Ivan the Terrible is pretty cliche but it sure seems appropriate. It's amazing that a storm can effect 4 states at the same time...Hell hath no wrath like Mother Nature in 2004. If the site goes down again it's probably me refreshing every 3rd second or so...I need a psychiatrist..

alan

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:11 AM

Re: rickontheboat

Here's one I found. Don't know the tune:

>"Hurricane Party" by Paul Sanchez
>from "Loose Parts"
>
>Verses (all verses the same):
> G C
>We had a little party me and my friends
> G D
>a hurricane was coming to New Orleans again
> G C
>somebody brought scotch somebody brought beer
> G D G
>I shoulda' kept the hootch and thrown 'em out of here
>
>Chorus:
> G C
>My hurricane party got out of control
> G D
>I'm lying in the gutter eating tootsie rolls
> G C
>with red-ant bites all over my ass

viking

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:13 AM

Re: 7th strongest cane

Quote:

Might have had something to do with having jalousie windows. Do people still use those? Haven’t seen them in years.

Funny you say that about jalousies. I finally got scared enough to decide to replace the ones on my house. In fact, I am waiting for the dreaded window salesman now.

My thoughts are with everyone affected by Ivan. I drove from Miami to Pt. Charlotte two days after Charley to check on my father in laws house. (snowbird) While his house was fine, I'll never forget what I saw at others who weren't so lucky. I even saw a mobile home with it's roof gone, but the insulation and celing still intact...go figure. Of course...so many others weren't so lucky...heartbreaking.

I wasn't here in Miami for Andrew, but will take hurricanes much more seriously. Plan to invest a lot of money in the house, a generator and get fully stocked on supplies each season.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:14 AM

Ed's on line

Guess we better stay on topic and focused for now...Ed's online...it was fun while it lasted...

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:18 AM

Re: 7th strongest cane

Well, the NHC says to close all windows and shutter them and don't open anything during a storm.

As far as jalousies, I think they fell out of favor because of air conditioning. They leak air like a sieve. In the days of no AC they made a lot of sense, they could be opened wide to allow air to flow through, and they didn't obstruct the view at all when closed because they were all glass.

But with hurricanes I would think they are no more or less safe without shutters than any other windows.

Bill

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:19 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

Buoy 42040, back on line. 52.5 ft waves. Surfs Up!
pressure 958mb. Buoy is 19nm North of the last position estimate.
How far will a 50 foot wave go inland?

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:27 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

>>> How far will a 50 foot wave go inland?

On top of a 16-20' storm surge and at high tide? Perish the thought....

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:31 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

Someone correct me if I am wrong, But the wave is measure from high point to low point. I think you can half the number for surge and then there are other variables that depend on depth of water apporaching the beach and such that reduce it even further from that wave.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:34 AM

Re: 7th strongest cane

I work at a marina in the Palm Beach area, and the hotel buildings are unfortunately 100% jalousies. They held up quite well during Frances, though under a dozen were blown off their hinges (the outer metal panels, none of the inner glass panels came out).

Suffice it to say, the carpet by the doors and windows were rather moist, the CAT2 winds were more than enough to blow the rain through two layers and into the rooms.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:34 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

I had mentioned this earlier. A wave in the open ocean is not the same as a wave as it nears shore. I don't know how all the parameters interact, but this does not mean 50 ft waves coming near shore. This buoy is something like 75 miles from shore.

Bill

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:37 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

Paul Murphy on TWC just reported 50 mph winds in Biloxi, and they expect 31 hours of Tropical Storm force winds. He's at the Palace/Paradise Casino (Sorry, didn't catch the name exactly) and it's garage is flooded out already.

Take care, Frank. Good news is that Steve Lyons just said you will only have hurricane force winds very briefly there.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:38 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

BillD,

you are absolutely correct, but these waves could certainly reach 30-40' (holy moly man)....Those aren't waves, they're friggin tsunamis! One on top of the other...

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:39 AM

Re: models

Meto,

What are the URLs of these Key West and Melbourne sites concerning Jeane?

cindy

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:40 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

Want to ask before we lose power-just saw some kinda grren 'lightening' here in west mobile-anybody know whats up with that? make that green

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:41 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

Correct. While storm surge can effectively push the shoreline far inland, the tremendous waves you see offshore just won't make it inland. In order to have 50-foot waves, you must have at least 50 feet of ocean below. For instance they built the Bahia Honda bridge (part of the overseas highway leading to Key West) 30 feet above sea level -- since the water is no deeper than 30 feet in that channel, it is presumed that waves could never crest over the bridge.

So yes, a 15-20+ foot storm surge will be devastating, and a few more feet of wind-produced waves can be expected to lash at anything just out of reach of the surge. There will NOT however be any colossal tsunami-like waves inland.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:41 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

Green lightning is probably power transformers blowing.

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:41 AM

Re: Storm Surge Links

http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/hesdata/index.htm
Mississippi and Alabama maps.
South Mobile County Map
http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/hesdata/Alabama/mobilesurgemappage.htm
http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/stormmap/images/2msouthsurge.jpg

(Admin)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:42 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

Quote:

Want to ask before we lose power-just saw some kinda grren 'lightening' here in west mobile-anybody know whats up with that?

Blown transformers, I saw ithe safe effect when Charley went over New Smyrna. Because of the clouds and rain it lights up a large area. They'll be blueish green flashes.

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:43 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

Quote:

Want to ask before we lose power-just saw some kinda grren 'lightening' here in west mobile-anybody know whats up with that? make that green

Cindy,

Those are transformers blowing up. I saw the same thing in Orlando - they looked more blue to me, but you might have more rain which makes them look green.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:43 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

Quote:

Want to ask before we lose power-just saw some kinda grren 'lightening' here in west mobile-anybody know whats up with that? make that green

That would be transformers shorting out Cindy. Already 15,000 without power in Mobile. Ours has been flickering, but still up. Going out any minute though !!

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:46 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

LOL, nice group effort everybody!

We had our share of 'Green Lightning' during Frances too. Unfortunately, the local power utility stopped their preventative tree-trimming program a few years back for *ahem* budgetary reasons. There are still something like 100,000+ people going on two weeks without power (yes, they lost it a full day before the storm hit).

They didn't shut down the grid either, so there was a near-constant array of green-blue flashes as the winds picked up. Some heads are going to roll over there once things settle down

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:47 AM

Re: Latest Vortex

URNT12 KNHC 160030
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/0014Z
B. 28 DEG 53 MIN N
88 DEG 11 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2520 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 192 DEG 122 KT
G. 110 DEG 21 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 20 C/ 3051 M
J. 22 C/ 3052 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW-SE
M. C40
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 4209A IVAN OB 05
MAX FLT WND 122KTS SE QUAD 0010Z

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:47 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

yes transformers. Neat to watch sad to think about

cindy

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:48 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

thanks guys-thought maybe had to do with some kind of weird radiation-shows what I know-gonna try to go run my dishwasher one more time- check in later if I can

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:48 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

How often is it that someone throws a question out here and we get 4-5 exact same responses...A LOT...that's what makes CFHC so valuable...I could never have answered that question but obviously those who have been through it can!

Not necessarily what you wanted to hear, but at least there's no discrepancies! Keep it up, you guys rock!

CentralFlorida

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:49 AM

Re: This A Jog East

The latest radar image looks like a jog eastward. Does anyone else see this or are these images starting to play mind games with me? :?:

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:51 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

cindy,

I found this on the Weather Corner

http://ggweather.com/wx_corner.html

"Q. During our recent spectacular lightning show I noticed that sometimes there was a greenish tint to the lightning. Can you explain this? Lucy Baldwin - Palo Alto

A. Clouds often take on a greenish hue before severe storms, but this is most often associated with hail. Hail is usually part of a thunderstorm. These tall, dense cumulonimbus clouds often block most of the sunlight, so the greenish tint may be a reflection of Earth's green foliage. However, the cause of the green tint has not been proven conclusively."

or it might be power lines...

gonyen

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:53 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

Great minds think alike Phil.

cindy

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:53 AM

Re: Meanwhile, back at the Ranch

cool theory!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:53 AM

Re: This A Jog East

It does look to be travelling right-of-north right now. There was one wobble right a while ago, let's see if this is a trend.
I hope we hear from Frank and his brother soon.

Bruce

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:54 AM

Re: This A Jog East

Yes Ivan moving NNE, with a jog to the NE Now. Dont think the NE Motion will continue, but you never know.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:55 AM

Re: This A Jog East

Dr. Lyons said yes it's now northeast. Could be another for Florida. He said New Orleans will be out of the worst of it.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:56 AM

Re: This A Jog East

Quote:

The latest radar image looks like a jog eastward. Does anyone else see this or are these images starting to play mind games with me? :?:

Don't look for a one-image movement - be patient and await the trends

As for being without power, this is the first time in 12 days I've been able to post using my home machine.

You hear that? That was one huge sigh of relief from me.

The latest FPL map shows that they reconnected another 7-8 thousand Brevard County residents, and more than 10 thousand in Palm Beach County. They might have screwed up badly, but they've done an amazing job getting power back as quickly as they have. Well, all things being equal. The debate on whether this many folks should've been effected is still up in the air

CentralFlorida

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:56 AM

Re: This A Jog East

waiting also for a post from Frank been wondering what he is going thru.

berrywr

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:56 AM

Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now!

If this heading holds up, Mobile Bay, the Mobile River will be spared the worse of the surge. Ivan now moving east of north now.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:56 AM

Re: This A Jog East

That happens when these large storms start landfall. Think about a spinning frisby hitting a curb on the street. It usually will turn the opposite direction from the spin, in this case, east. It may continue or it may wobble back to the center. Never can tell. I vote for -never mind, ITs not good no matter where it goes.

Thunder

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 12:58 AM

Re: This A Jog East

I have a conference call in ten min. for a update w/ the office... What can we expect here in Tally tonight and tomorrow morning? Thanks for any input!

T

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:02 AM

Re: Mobile weather

KMOB observed 0049 UTC 16 September 2004
Temperature: 23.0°C (73°F)
Dewpoint: 22.0°C (72°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.46 inches Hg (997.7 mb)
Winds: from the NNE (30 degrees) at 39 MPH (34 knots; 17.7 m/s)
gusting to 49 MPH (43 knots; 22.4 m/s)
Visibility: 3 miles (5 km)
Ceiling: 3000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1400 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 3800 feet AGL
Weather: TSRA BR (rain associated with thunderstorm(s), mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance
OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD MOV W
Occasional Lightning overhead, Thunderstorm-overhead moving west

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:03 AM

Re: This A Jog East

here ya go thunder - tallahassee info

berrywr

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:05 AM

Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

If the shortwave trough picks Ivan up; which if current radar trends hold up; all bets are off with Jeanne. If Ivan slowed he would erode the upper ridge to his east; if he's out of the way, the ridge is likely to build back in thus a more westward course for Jeanne and a date with Florida. I must stress the models haven't performed to well with hurricanes of late; ask the Florida Keys? If there is a model performing well, it's the FSU SuperEnsemble.

Thunder

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:06 AM

Re: This A Jog East

RIGHT ON! THANKS!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:08 AM

Green Lightning

Green or blue lightning is either a power transformer blowing or high power lines touching together with the high winds.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:09 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Must be difficult for someone with a Florida Gator icon to compliment the FSU Superensemble.

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:12 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

That was a very good point!

Go Gators

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:12 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Quote:

Must be difficult for someone with a Florida Gator icon to compliment the FSU Superensemble.

Don't ya just know that's the truth.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:14 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

You guys seem somewhat passionate about your rivalries...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:14 AM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

Quote:

I will not take down my plywood until December!

Might want to rethink this... headline on www.orlandosentinel.com this morning read: "Shutters blamed in fatal blaze that killed priest in Fort Lauderdale" They said the guy had all routes blocked and firefighters couldn't get in to help.

Thunder

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:15 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Quote:

Must be difficult for someone with a Florida Gator icon to compliment the FSU Superensemble.

OUCH!

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:17 AM

Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend

At least plywood can be taken out with an axe. Some of those storm shutters that get installed are down right impenetrable.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:17 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

I was thinking the same thing

It was interesting, however, that in the 5PM discussion on Jeanne, Beven said:

THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF
ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

Earlier in the discussion he said that the GFDL was a left outlier that had come slightly more right this last run. As reliable as the FSU Ensemble seems to have been, this makes me a little more nervous. However it is way to early to really predict what is going to happen. Maybe by Saturday we'll have a better idea.

Bill

canerazor

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:18 AM

Re: Green Lightning

my mom just jumped un off the porch, thought it was lightning. told her it was another transformer. we've seen afew go out 'round here; we still have power @ 8pm; lot's out in mobile south county. wind gusting in tree tops near hurr force, ground level 40mph or so. we're about 25 miles inland in Mobile though.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:18 AM

Re: This A Jog East

Just got back to my computer. Is anyone else having problems accessing the buoy info or do i have another damn virus?

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:20 AM

Re: Green Lightning

As the bands of Frances moved into Miami it was daylight, we couldn't see the flashes, but we could sure hear the POP when they blew. Luckily we never lost power.

Bill

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:22 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

That shortwave trough is giving us LIers some rain and cloudiness today, isn't it weird that the NHC picks up Ivan with the trough but then doesn't think about how that will affect the path of Jeanne. I think their to infatuated with the models, and that they are oblivous to other factors. Don't really want to critize but sometimes I just don't agree with people.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:22 AM

Re: This A Jog East

Nope, not you, looks like the NDBC server is having problems. I can't get there either.

Bill

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:23 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Latest GFDL has a somewhat improbable oblique entry into Florida somewhere around Jupiter and then shoots it up inland to around Jax. It had been further east this afternoon; but shifted back to a Florida strike.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:25 AM

Re: Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now!

The last few NEXRAD frames have it straightening out a bit, maybe even a slight left wobble being hinted at in the most recent frame. Yes, it's quickly getting to the stage where the wobbles from one scan to the next get awfully meaningful.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:25 AM

Re: Question

I was curious about this myself earlier this afternoon and after some googling this is what I learned. In the Atlantic they have 6 lists of 21 names that they rotate every six years. If a storm is particularly historic, they retire that name and replace it with a new one six years later. If there is more than 21 storms in a given year, then they move to the greek alphabet (ie. #22 = Alpha, #23 = Beta, etc.). The most on record in the Atlantic is 1933 with 21 (I think 1995 had 19). The pacific is very similar except that several years ago (maybe 15), they actually got to W and decided real quick to add names for X, Y, and Z... they used all 24 that year. After this they kept the first 21 names alternating every 6 years and added X, Y, and Z names that alternate every other year. If they go past 24, then they will revert to the greek alphabet as well. I'm sorry I can't remember the URL for this, but if you search on google for "21 storms" I think you'll find something eventually.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:26 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Keith,

I know you mean well, but right now people don't care that we're getting sprinkles while they're staring down the threat of a CAT IV.. Don't worry, someday we'll get "our storm" (might be sooner than later too); also, I'm not exactly sure what you mean about your comments about the NHC...they're the best in the business and I can assure you they're not "infatuated" with models.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:26 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

I know one thing.....I wouldn't use the GFS right now this far out, because it has had right-track bias of late. It has been better the last couple of days, but I just don't think Jeanne has been initialized well, and it may have that problem for a while.

As for worst model performance (sans NGM), the ETA was terrible with Ivan. It had it going into the Yucatan, west of N.O., and is still too far left. Even this close in, the only run that was close to verifying was the 6z. From here on out, it is a Nowcast anyway. In all fairness, this model wasn't designed to predict cat 4 storms. Something to remember though for future storms.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:28 AM

Ivan coverage on ABCNews Now

If you have digital broadcast capability and your ABC affiliate broadcasts ABCNews Now, they are now broadcasting the ABC affiliate from the Mobile/Pensacola area. I think it is also available in streaming video at http://www.abcnewsnow.com

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:29 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Thing about the ETA though was it sniffed out how far W Ivan could get. It was (and is) an outlier, but it and the European had their moments.

Steve

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:31 AM

Re: Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now!

THis will be interesting to see how the eye of the storm reacts to the land mass.
As we've noted on his trip through the islands, Ivan has always dodged the islands except Grenada.
Even the very Western tip of Cuba, he seemed to side step around.
Now, faced with the continental U.S.A. there is no escape.
I'm sure there will be a wobble here and there before landfall.
I'd guess a few miles East of Moblle Bay.
We'll see.

RMagic

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:32 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Quote:

You guys seem somewhat passionate about your rivalries...

we are.....

sadly it's a wash.....they have rix.....we have zook

:cry:

all joking aside tho best wishes to all those that are affected by this thing. A good friend of the family currently lives and works in destin.....thankfully he decided to evacuate.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:34 AM

Re: Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now!

I've been wondering about the land dodging thing. Ivan was so precise around those islands. Is it possible for the hurricane to just skirt around land in the US? How long and far could that last?

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:37 AM

Re: Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now!

It does happen; but since this is almost a 90 degreeangle and there is no real way for it to bounce away from land, they seem to tend to bounce just a little ways. Maybe 5-10 miles max, I would guess. Opal did much the same thing. Looked like a dead hit near Pensacola Beach; but ended up bouncing over towards Ft Walton Beach.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:40 AM

8 pm CDT

Highest winds on land:
Pensacola NAS sustained at 46 gusts to 55
Lowest Pressure on land:
Grand Bay, AL 29.27"

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:42 AM

Re: Crazy Ivan

I think he goes back W some not much 88.4' hope I am wrongThe wind is really picking up I am about to lose power and maybe two trees to the W of my driveway.The trees are why my lites fade not much longer they will take the power out getting alittle anxious.just me and the frick'n dog she's a good dog.

kelcot

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:44 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

you have no idea about rivalries! Down in the south, between the SEC and the ACC.........

Anyway, I have a question about storm surge......
If you had property on the Gulf, (and I mean right on the gulf- ie. walk out the back door onto a deck, go down a ton of stairs, and you're on the beach) with a 20' storm surge and an expected wave height of 30'-40' ft, what are the chances of it still being there the day after tomarrow? (It is a new house, has hurricane windows, no shutters, but plywood up)

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:45 AM

Re: 8 pm CDT

Quote:

Highest winds on land:
Pensacola NAS sustained at 46 gusts to 55

I thought I saw something about a 61mph gust at Mobile airport ??

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:46 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

You stay safe, Jav.

Re: the storm surge/wave height question...

If that property is located in the northeast quadrant, right in the eyewall...unfortunately it's probably not going to be there much longer...all depends where it's located...

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:47 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

I mean they have the storm re-curving when that subtropical high is going to build back after the remmants of Ivan depart. When the remmants of Ivan are around it will create a rex block, I think that was metioned by Clark, this would slow everything down in the tropics in the area of Jeanne. Now the problem I have is that once Ivan exits there is going to be a slight re-curvature of Jeanne's track but I don't think it would go that north. Another possibility is that Mean Jean the wind and rain machine will continue it's westward course and go through Florida and not be touched by that ridge or trough in the north. It could go either way, but this year storms like Florida and don't recurve when their suppose too. I'm not one to critize the NHC as metioned by LI phil, I'm a mere weather hobbiest, "take it as a grain of salt."

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:47 AM

Re: 8 pm CDT

My sister is in Semmes, not far away. They are sitting in the dark. Also relate wind is picking up.

erimus

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:47 AM

Re: Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now!

Quote:

I've been wondering about the land dodging thing. Ivan was so precise around those islands. Is it possible for the hurricane to just skirt around land in the US? How long and far could that last?

I have been wondering the same thing since Cuba. How many of us has had this in the back of our minds? Could be time for a Poll?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:49 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

I think my reasoning is that the ETA has always had a left of track bias with winter storms, and it was supposed to be corrected. Maybe it did go farther west than most thought, but in my opinion, it was as wrong to the left as the GFS was to the right. The thing that disturbs me about the GFS is, its bias was commonly left of track also, so these last couple of storms have played havoc with my mental notes on biases.
There is an easy answer to this: No more storms. Every time I turn on TWC and see Stephanie Abrams being blown through the air (ok, a little dramatic), I think they must all be nuts. "Everyone else leave, let's set up here......"
Poor Jeff Morrow on vacation a couple of years ago on the outer banks, a storm comes, so they give him a camera and a mic.

kelcot

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:50 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

PCB, right off 30A, just west of Rosemary Beach and East of Sea Side.......

Pal, I forgot to tell you that I also have family in Mobile, P-goula, and Gulf Shores....Bettye

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:51 AM

Nowcast

How often do you see a forecast like this:

Persons in southern Mobile and Baldwin counties can expect hurricane force winds after 10 PM this evening and increasing to near 130 mph across the southern half of the County shortly after midnight. These hurricane force winds will spread inland through the late night and into the early morning hours. Landfall of extremely powerful Hurricane Ivan can be expected around 100 am over Dauphin Island.

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:51 AM

Re: Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now!

Rainfall rates of 3 and half inches an hour from the sat, amazing and storm totals in the area of 7 inches plus. Stay safe everyone.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:52 AM

Re: Crazy Ivan

it sure looks like its moving slightly east of north to me but jason said its a jog.

meto

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:54 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

what is fsu saying about jeanne

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:54 AM

Re: Crazy Ivan

Dr Steve is now showing a sat loop with grid overlay. There is a definite curve to the NNE going on. Look out Orange Beach.

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:54 AM

Re: Nowcast

I was reading the forecast for Mobile and can you believe that they gave the temp and said it was going to be humid. Like that isn't enough having a hurricane landfall, they have to metion that the temps are going to be in the 80's with high humidity, why don't they issue a heat index warning (LOL).

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:56 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

TWC drives me nuts anymore. 3000 commercials an hour, and 30 minute shows about famous weather happenings. Who cares!? That's what the Discovery channel is for! Gimme my weather 24/7, even if it's not interesting. Both CNN and TWC made it big when that's ALL they did, not like what they do now.

(gets off soapbox)

We resume your regularly scheduled hurricane...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:57 AM

Convective tail

If anyone has a link to the San Juan PR radar, it shows what I was talking about earlier-the convective tail. I didn't expect to see it right now in Jeanne, but it is there. The center of Jeanne is emerging over the Atlantic, but the convective tail is actually EAST of the island.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:58 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

totally agree with you! I used to be addicted to TWC, but now I hardly watch it at all.

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:58 AM

Re: Nowcast

One hour rainfall totals from Mobile are showing a band of 1.5" to 2.5" rainfall, from Bayou La Batre eastward to Orange Beach area.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 01:59 AM

Area Storm Links

Panama City, FL
WJHC tv http://www.wjhg.com/
WMBB tv http://www.wmbb.com/
http://www.newsherald.com/index.shtml (Tornado strikes newspaper building)

Pensacola, FL
WEAR tv http://www.weartv.com/ (info links only NO NEWS)
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/

Mobile, AL
WKRG tv http://www.wkrg.com/
WPMI tv http://www.wpmi.com/ (minimal coverage but promises live feed)
WPMI am http://www.newsradio710.com/main.html (also offers live streaming)
(Mobile Register): http://www.al.com/

Southern Miss. Gulf Coast (Gulfport, Biloxi, Pascagoula)
WLOX tv http://www.wlox.com/
(Biloxi): http://www.sunherald.com/mld/sunherald/
(Pascaoula): http://www.gulflive.com/

New Orleans, LA
WWL tv http://www.wwltv.com/
WDSO tv http://www.theneworleanschannel.com/index.html
(live feed available)
WNGO tv http://abc26.trb.com/
(Times Picayune): http://www.nola.com/

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:00 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Quote:

TWC drives me nuts anymore. 3000 commercials an hour, and 30 minute shows about famous weather happenings. Who cares!? That's what the Discovery channel is for! Gimme my weather 24/7, even if it's not interesting. Both CNN and TWC made it big when that's ALL they did, not like what they do now.

(gets off soapbox)

We resume your regularly scheduled hurricane...

Amen!!!!

I used to watch non stop back in the late 80's. Now maybe 10 minutes a month.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:02 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Quote:

Quote:

TWC drives me nuts anymore. 3000 commercials an hour, and 30 minute shows about famous weather happenings. Who cares!? That's what the Discovery channel is for! Gimme my weather 24/7, even if it's not interesting. Both CNN and TWC made it big when that's ALL they did, not like what they do now.

(gets off soapbox)

We resume your regularly scheduled hurricane...

Amen!!!!

I used to watch non stop back in the late 80's. Now maybe 10 minutes a month.

(un)fortunately for us up north, that's all we get...but, ya gotta admit, where else can you see Stephanie Abrahms in a tight grey t-shirt in the morning and a "smurf" suit later on that day? (tip o' the cap to danny!)

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:02 AM

Re: Nowcast

Couple of points:

Regarding rivalries - you have no idea what it's like to have your rival be a chicken who thinks he's king of the roost, but loses more than 50% of the time. Let's just say that Hurricane Holtz is not a threat to land.

Regarding hurricanetrack.com - Is anyone else watching their webcam? I thought it was going to be at a fixed point anchored down close to the beach, but they seem to keep driving back to the police station. Does anyone know what's going on?

Regarding Ivan's track - It definitely appears to be leaning more east than expected to me. The crosshairs seem to have moved to the AL/FL state line now.

Regarding buoys - Is the website just dead now or what? I keep getting a internet error page every time I try and go there.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:04 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Quote:

what is fsu saying about jeanne

Earlier today it had it just East of S. FL . It was the furthest West model along with the GFDL. The GFDL went East but has come back West on the latest run.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:05 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

I watched TWC for a few hours during Charley, not before or since. And I think I only watched it for a day or so last hurricane season, can't even remember why. I miss the way it used to be, with John Hope and almost no commercials. They may as well take it off the air as far as I am concerned.

Bill

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:05 AM

Re: Nowcast

I nregards to hurricanetrack, I think that survival instinct has kicked in. The Gulf is already very rough and pounding seas walls and the storm is still aboutthree hours away. I suspect if they stayed, they would have been a statistic.

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:09 AM

Re: This A Jog East

Quote:

Nope, not you, looks like the NDBC server is having problems. I can't get there either.

Bill

The NDBC is back up, but all the readings are about 2 hours old. Hopefully they will update soon. I'm curious as to what's going on at DPIA1, 42040, 42007, BURL1.

cjzydeco

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:09 AM

Re: Area Storm Links

Somewhere earlier I saw that the WJHG website was supposed to have a link to a webcam -- not that you can see much in the dark. I never could find it on their website. Anyone give me some navigation hints?

Also, what is this Rex block? I am not familiar with the term???

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:10 AM

Landfall point

Looks like it is heading directly for Gulf Shores/Foley/Orange Shores and West Pensacola area and right up the east side of Mobile Bay.any thoughts? .I think it is hilarious on CNN with ANderson Cooper sitting in downtown Mobile...hope he is at least 2 stories high.

meto

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:12 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

ive been saying on the key west and melbourne discussions they said that a stong high from canada would be coming south later this week . and block jeanne from curving. models may now be picking that up.

CarolinaGurl

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:12 AM

Re: Nowcast

If you check the hurricanetrack site you will see the information from the vehicle they left on the beach. They were not going to stay with the vehicle thank goodness.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:12 AM

Re: Area Storm Links

An Omega Block is shaped like the Greek letter Omega, a Rex Block (pardon the loose explanation) is an Omega Block slanted to the right. Instead of having a N/S flow, it can actually loop around NE/SW, or even sharper.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:12 AM

Ivan/Jeanne

Don't have a lot of time to go back through and reply to everything relevant, though it seems like everyone else did a pretty good job at it. Sounds like you all had a nice little diversion there awhile back as well with the music, haha. I just kept picturing someone playing "Rock Me Like a Hurricane" over and over again...alas, on to business.

Ivan's just a few hours from shore. The SW side of the storm appears to be less defined than before, though the eyewall is trying to hang in there. This could be significant, however, as to sparing a portion of the coast west of where Ivan makes landfall. The storm looks to be heading about 015-025 degrees, or NNE, of late with it's eye set on Mobile Bay. If current trends continue, however, the torn of Mobile may be spared the worst -- assuming that the eye and center move east of town. If the eye moves over the center of town, then all bets are off. Areas along the immediate coastline from Mobile Bay to the AL/FL border and slightly eastward to Pensacola look to take the brunt of this storm....and, unfortunately, the pictures out of that region are going to be devestating.

Regions well to the east of the center, up and down the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers & thereabouts, are also feeling effects from this storm in the way of numerous tornadoes. The cells have been racing from the south and southwest and spinning up vortices and tornadoes as they move on shore. A few more are on the way and will likely pass between Panama City and Tallahassee -- near Marianna -- in the coming hours. This threat will continue even well after Ivan makes landfall.

To those in Ivan's path -- stay safe and here's hoping for the best.

Jeanne -- NHC path looks good, actually, if only to slow it down a bit due to weaker steering currents. There is some correlation between what Ivan does and the future path of Jeanna, and I'm not 100% convinced I see it in the models yet. However, the further left track is similar if a bit north and faster of my thinking from yesterday and, like the NHC said, is only right of the GFDL and Superensemble...and in both cases, it's not by much (certainly not as much as earlier with the GFDL taking it into Florida). No one along the SE coast is out of the woods with this one yet, and it is still too far out to hazard a guess as to what it will actually do, so everyone from Key West to Cape Hatteras needs to watch this one. It's entirely possible it pulls a Floyd, getting near to shore before turning, while it's also possible this thing pulls and Erin and bends back west late in the period. It could also die out if it crosses too much land. Just need to watch it closely.

I do think the circulation will become a bit disrupted by Hispaniola, so I would lower the intensity forecast a tad. The circulation is small and the precise path, now that it is exiting Puerto Rico, will play a role in intensification. A ragged eye-type feature appears to be forming on radar imagery from San Juan, so it's not inconceiveable that this storm reaches hurricane intensity in the short-term in the Mona Passage, only to be knocked down a bit again as it passes Hispaniola. In any case, squalls will continue to affect the island of Puerto Rico through Thursday associated with a rather intense feeder band just nearing the eastern shore of the island now.

There's plenty of time to follow Jeanne and the E. Atlantic invest later, however, except for those in Puerto Rico dealing with the storm now. Hope all is well on the island there, though I'm sure we will hear reports of some wind damage in higher locales and flooding in the low-lying areas.

Here's hoping this erosion of the SW side of Ivan is a trend to shore and not a blip on the radar...it could well be significant in the long-term. This is going to be a major event well inland, and I hope people are prepared for the worst. Best wishes to all in its path.

Londovir

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:15 AM

Re: This A Jog East

I found another way into the buoy data, not sure if everyone knows this one or not: Buoy Data

As of 9:50EDT: 42040: 48.6KT (gust 64.1KT), 28.21 (-0.23), 28.5ft wave

All other stations are over 2 hours old in reports.

On a slightly off-topic, I noticed an hour or two ago, around the time the reports came in of 2 deaths from Tornados around PCB, that CNN.COM's webpage main story/headline was Martha Stewart asking to go to jail. Ivan was a little text byline on the side. I got a bit irked at that, and wrote them a nasty little email pointing out that utter lack of priorities....

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:16 AM

Re: Landfall point

Quote:

Looks like it is heading directly for Gulf Shores/Foley/Orange Shores and West Pensacola area and right up the east side of Mobile Bay.any thoughts? .I think it is hilarious on CNN with ANderson Cooper sitting in downtown Mobile...hope he is at least 2 stories high.

That looks about right. Further East of the bay the better.

It's only a matter of time before we lose one of these reporters in a storm. I think we could get camera shots without having live commentary. I, for one, am tired of hearing "The rain is coming down sideways and the sand is stinging my face."

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:17 AM

Re: Area Storm Links

Rex block is similar to what MrSpock explained above; the classical picture of it involves a low stuck in the middle of a ridge....and can very well happen when the ridge is too sharp and allows a low to bend back southwestward into it, giving the overall pattern this appearance of the "high over low" situation.

As with any block, it means the overall pattern isn't going to change much in the short-term until something comes along and busts up the block, whether by weakening the ridge or weakening the low.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:17 AM

Re: Landfall point

agreed. It is no longer new, nor novel. It gets tiring hearing someone struggling to speak.

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:20 AM

Latest Buoy Readings

Right after I post that everything's out. New buoy readings become available:

42040 13 m from center - 49 kt winds, gusts to 64 ktd. Wave height at 29 ft.
42039 113 m from center 41 kt winds, gusts to 52 kt. Wave height at 36 ft.

Southwest Pass, LA - m from center, 69 kt winds, gusts to 77 kt.

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:20 AM

Re: Nowcast

Is it me or does it look like that vehicle is halfway submerged right now?

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Wind/

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:20 AM

Re: Landfall point

"the wind is really picking up now!!!".... <sigh>

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:21 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

rule -- as a meteorologist and meteorology student, I totally agree with you. The entire meteorological community, from professionals to hobbiests, agrees with you.

The ratings don't agree with us, however. TWC's ratings are higher now with Storm Stories and other similar programming than they were before the programs even came along. The general public likes to see these things, while we don't -- particularly not every day, nor when storms are coming. But, money pays the bills...

It just couldn't hurt them to tone down the number of commercials a bit though, could it? Weather 00-07 of the hour, short local forecast 08-09, commercial 10-11, weekly planner 12-14, commercial 15-19, local forecast 19-20, special feature 20-24, commercial 24-28, local forecast 29-30. The same holds for the second half of the hour too. Go fig.

But, their coverage does leave a lot to be desired, in my opinion. And would it hurt them to change from that same graphic they've used all season long?

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:24 AM

Re: Nowcast

Ummm... what the heck is that? Since I didn't see a... "not submerged" picture...

Really. Some simplistic scale object would be apprectiated.

Edit: Looking at NOAA Mobile radar the eye is folding up...

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:24 AM

Re: Area Storm Links

awesome links!

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:24 AM

Re: Landfall point

TWC just reported 10 tornados and 2 deaths already. Northern eyewall now 50 miles south of AL.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:25 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Quote:

TWC drives me nuts anymore. 3000 commercials an hour, and 30 minute shows about famous weather happenings. Who cares!? That's what the Discovery channel is for! Gimme my weather 24/7, even if it's not interesting. Both CNN and TWC made it big when that's ALL they did, not like what they do now.

(gets off soapbox)

We resume your regularly scheduled hurricane...

Rule, you are exactly right. Those of us who remember when TWC started up, sure, they didn't have the amt of commercials they have now but also, the did a much better job of giving in depth weather information.
Now, it's just frustrating to watch them.
Tonight, CNN and FOX etc are doing a better job than TWC.
I think it shouldn't be that way.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:27 AM

TWC...my $.02

What's even more annoying is they have 4 main reporters and several correspondents out in the field (granted not all at once) but why do they insist on showing reports from 2:00 pm? (unless it's Stephanie Abrahams morning report...sorry)

What, they can't at least go live every once in a while?

I happen to like storm stories and the other fluff, but only during the slow times...at least they'be bagged that the past several days.

Just my $.02

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:27 AM

Re: Nowcast

I swear it looks like water to me....

I must be losing it from staring at this screen for so long.
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Wind/

anybody?

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:28 AM

Big waves/ low pressure

Quote:

Quote:

Nope, not you, looks like the NDBC server is having problems. I can't get there either.

Bill

The NDBC is back up, but all the readings are about 2 hours old. Hopefully they will update soon. I'm curious as to what's going on at DPIA1, 42040, 42007, BURL1.

Latest info from NDBC -

DPAI1 at 0205GMT - 47kt sustained, 57kt gusts, pressure -.2
BURL1 at 0200GMT - 60kt sustained, 73kt gusts, pressure +.12

The latest readings are not including wave heights. Perhaps those devices have failed due to the enormous wave heights.

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:29 AM

Re: Nowcast

gulp ...that is water! Look above the camera this is what the guy wrote:
Note: I have gone in and put a battery powered lantern inside the HLP vehicle so that we can at least see inside the Isuzu. If the water begins to fill it up- we should be able to see that. Also- the time on the web cam image is set to Central time.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:31 AM

Re: TWC...my $.02

If the winds are too high - which I'm not sure they are yet, but perhaps they are moving people around or playing it safe with some of the bands coming around - they can't get their satellite dish on their live trucks up into the air to transmit anything back to Atlanta, live or not. That could be the case here...though I'm not sure why it would, as I don't think the winds have been that high yet. Probably just lack of anything else to show and lack of experts back in Atlanta to cover the storm. This is where John Hope is sorely missed.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:32 AM

Frank P.

Anyone besides myself a tad concerned we haven't heard from Frank P. in a while?

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:32 AM

Re: Nowcast

Oh well, it says at the top of the page that it's an Isuzu... and he expects it will fill up with water....

So it probably will fill up with water...

Yeah, but so what? If you park it in the GOM it will fill up with water? Why put that on the internet? Not very scientific to me..

Maybe I'm missing the whole point...

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:32 AM

9 pm CDT

On Land:
Highest Sustained Winds 52 mph at Pensacola Beach FL
Highest Wind Gust 69 mph Dauphin Island AL
Lowest Pressure 29.24" Grand Bay AL

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:33 AM

Re: TWC...my $.02

One of our local station reporters was broadcasting live in Frances when a large palm tree snapped off about halfway up and landed about 5 feet behind him. He played it off like it was no big deal but you could tell by his face that he was stunned. Had it hit him it might have changed how they broadcast hurricanes the same way that Janet J. changed the Super Bowl halftime show.

Funny thing -- CNN was actually talking about this tonight. The question was posed, "does someone have to get killed for newscasters to change the way they cover storms."

Also saw William Gray on tonight--he doesn't give to many interviews, it was nice to hear from him, even if he didn't have anything new to add.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:33 AM

Re: Landfall point

I been at work most of the night so I couldnt respond to any emails sent to me. Also been on phone with NWS. Landfall will be on the Alabama-Florida boarder within 20 miles. This was adjusted just east due to land interaction (we think) from La causing a minor push to the NNE for 2 hours and now is back on a almost 5dg north march. Ivan will make landfall about 40 miles east of where I projected my Biloxi-Mobile landfall. Anyone from Biloxi-Ft Walton beach needs to get indoors NOW and get ready for hurricane force winds after midnight. Severe winds, tornados, storm surge of 8-12 ft with high tide in many locations around 1-3am. Landfall should be in about 6 hrs. Rainfall amounts are still the same up to 12 inches near the center and just east. Local amounts higher but alot less more then 50 miles west of the center. Panama City area and inland thru the panhandle is experiencing many spawned short-lived tornados and also across alabama and mississippi. That will continue for the next 2 days or more. Rainfall amounts further north will rise as Ivan moves NNE and stalls out over the Tenn valley. A strong ridge will form to its north and dive Se this weekend blocking any NE movement out and may push this west to western Tenn before a turn north Monday into Tuesday to the Ohio Valley. The problem up there wont be the wind but the several inches of rain. More on Jeanne later,,, but right now, everyone near any water or open ground need to get in a save place. Everyone elsewhere need to get indoors for the next 12-18hrs and but whatever they have in theyre fridges,,,into the freezers and when power goes out,,,put in coolers so they stay colder when everything warms up.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:34 AM

Re: Frank P.

Hope Frank is safe as well.
He did sound nervous and excited earlier.

Probably has his hands full right now.

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:34 AM

Re: Nowcast

Quote:

gulp ...that is water! Look above the camera this is what the guy wrote:
Note: I have gone in and put a battery powered lantern inside the HLP vehicle so that we can at least see inside the Isuzu. If the water begins to fill it up- we should be able to see that. Also- the time on the web cam image is set to Central time.

I am having difficulty deciphering that image from the webcam. Could you describe where you see water a little more simply for my tired head? Thanks

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:35 AM

Re: Frank P.

FrankP and Javelin have probably lost power. There are quite a few tall pines in those areas. They love to drop a limb on the powerlines when the wind blows. TWC crew at the casino is about 4to 5 miles from FrankP and Javelin.

Water fills up the lower 1/3 of the camera shot, and is a greyish color.

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:35 AM

Re: TWC...my $.02

Quote:

One of our local station reporters was broadcasting live in Frances when a large palm tree snapped off about halfway up and landed about 5 feet behind him. He played it off like it was no big deal but you could tell by his face that he was stunned. Had it hit him it might have changed how they broadcast hurricanes the same way that Janet J. changed the Super Bowl halftime show.

Funny thing -- CNN was actually talking about this tonight. The question was posed, "does someone have to get killed for newscasters to change the way they cover storms."

Also saw William Gray on tonight--he doesn't give to many interviews, it was nice to hear from him, even if he didn't have anything new to add.

Yeah, they'll change it when a piece of aluminum siding goes "al qaeda" on live television

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:35 AM

Re: Frank P.

He should be in the hurricane force winds. I would be willing to bet that he has lost all power. Cell phone service is probably a little disrupted. I could not call out during Charley. Had to wait for the winds to subside and then only had it for a few more hours until they were able to refuel or restart generators. I would not be surprised if no one hears from him until tomorrow afternoon.

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:37 AM

Re: Frank P.

I'm trying to think positive. He just turned his computer off to save batteries. Hoping maybe he will try to write in the calm of the eye.

This must be awful for the people who have been around here awhile. Frank and Jason are both such good guys and you all seem to be great friends. I asked my kids to say an extra prayer for both of them tonight. Kids seem to have a clearer link to God, I think.

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:38 AM

Re: Frank P.

Have not heard from MBFLY either... Expect Mobile is rather Dark at the moment...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:38 AM

Re: Frank P.

Yes, but what I keep thinking (to stay positive) is that he said he wanted to be offline for a while to save a battery, and he hadn't eaten since yesterday.
John Hope and Neil Frank were my 2 favorites back in the day. I do miss the early TWC days.
If they want to bring it into the 21st century, maybe they should start to show model data at times.
1 thing I miss, and this may sound stupid, is they used to have a pretty good current map, and they used to put the time on it. Why they ever stopped doing it, I have no idea.

The new ETA is coming in. It skirts Jeanne along the north coast of Cuba, so based on recent performance, it should be north of there. Of course, I don't even know if the GFS knows it's there yet (yes, I am exaggerating).

On a larger scale topic, El Nino is expected this winter, albeit a weak one. Since there is a lag time, it obviously is not affecting this hurricane season, but we'll have to see how strong and/or persistent it is for next season.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:39 AM

Re: TWC...my $.02

SkketoBite--that happened during Charley to Donald Forbes from our local CBS station. He got of lucky with stitches in his thumb and a nice shiner.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:40 AM

Re: Frank P.

Guys, thanks for the prompt responses...my only concern (and he either lost or they cut power hours ago) was that he said he would post "in an hour" and I thinkk that was 7:00ish...

He may be checking on his brother (who resides in Mobile) or he may be busy...sh-t, the guy's been thru Camille...

He may also be 3/4 of the way thru his bottle of Crown (I know I'd be)...

Just was concerned, das all.

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:40 AM

Mobile NOAA radar

What the heck is the eye doing? It's opened and merged with an outer dry band? What is going on?

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:40 AM

Re: Nowcast

can't now. I guess the car floated away. The screen has gone blank. That was just stupid! I coulda used that vehicle!

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:41 AM

Re: Landfall point

Quote:

I been at work most of the night so I couldnt respond to any emails sent to me. Also been on phone with NWS. Landfall will be on the Alabama-Florida boarder within 20 miles. This was adjusted just east due to land interaction (we think) from La causing a minor push to the NNE for 2 hours and now is back on a almost 5dg north march. Ivan will make landfall about 40 miles east of where I projected my Biloxi-Mobile landfall. Anyone from Biloxi-Ft Walton beach needs to get indoors NOW and get ready for hurricane force winds after midnight. Severe winds, tornados, storm surge of 8-12 ft with high tide in many locations around 1-3am. Landfall should be in about 6 hrs. Rainfall amounts are still the same up to 12 inches near the center and just east. Local amounts higher but alot less more then 50 miles west of the center. Panama City area and inland thru the panhandle is experiencing many spawned short-lived tornados and also across alabama and mississippi. That will continue for the next 2 days or more. Rainfall amounts further north will rise as Ivan moves NNE and stalls out over the Tenn valley. A strong ridge will form to its north and dive Se this weekend blocking any NE movement out and may push this west to western Tenn before a turn north Monday into Tuesday to the Ohio Valley. The problem up there wont be the wind but the several inches of rain. More on Jeanne later,,, but right now, everyone near any water or open ground need to get in a save place. Everyone elsewhere need to get indoors for the next 12-18hrs and but whatever they have in theyre fridges,,,into the freezers and when power goes out,,,put in coolers so they stay colder when everything warms up.

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:42 AM

Re: Frank P.

I believe that Frank had already lost power earlier tonight. He made a statement about trying to conserve battery power a few hours ago. He said very early this afternoon that once power went out he would be shutting down his laptop frequently to conserve those batteries, so I'm assuming that's where he is right now. Also remember, once his cable lines get cut, his internet is gone, and we're not gonna hear any more from him until the main part of the storm is over, if that soon. Based on what I saw on TWC earlier, I wouldn't be surprised to find out his internet service is done for tonight.

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:42 AM

Re: HIRT-1

Webcam image is now gone. Water must have shorted it out. Oops

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:43 AM

Re: TWC...my $.02

Joe Bastardi just said he thinks Jeanne skirts cuba thru the fla straits and goes into the Gulf.
He said it definatel is aimed at the US coast somewhere.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:44 AM

Re: Frank P.

Quote:

I believe that Frank had already lost power earlier tonight. He made a statement about trying to conserve battery power a few hours ago. He said very early this afternoon that once power went out he would be shutting down his laptop frequently to conserve those batteries, so I'm assuming that's where he is right now. Also remember, once his cable lines get cut, his internet is gone, and we're not gonna hear any more from him until the main part of the storm is over, if that soon. Based on what I saw on TWC earlier, I wouldn't be surprised to find out his internet service is done for tonight.

He did promise to give me a phone call...although that might not occur until tomorrow..if he couldn't post.

I'll let you guys know fer sher.

Never yet actually talked to another CFHCer, thou I've come close...what does one say?

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:44 AM

Re: Frank P.

I guess that would be the disadvantage in having cable internet. Most cable is strung on poles, where phone lines are mostly underground.

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:45 AM

Re: Nowcast

Sort of off topic, but that was the best laugh I've had all week!

Jamiewx

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:45 AM

New Orleans Weather Radio

Anyone who is looking for a link for NOAA Weather Radio from New Orleans can find it here. Not sure how much longer it will be broadcasting as it could sustain damage or lose power, i know we lost our weather radio signal during Hurricane Charley.

Edit: Accuweather track brings Jeanne across Florida, and i think Joe B does the forecasting for Tropical Weather, so I wonder if he changed the forecast. Makes me wonder since is quite different to NHC track, but Joe B was right with Ivan.
Accuweather Track

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:45 AM

Re: Mobile NOAA radar

Quote:

What the heck is the eye doing? It's opened and merged with an outer dry band? What is going on?

You are right. The SW eyewall has opened up. Dr. Lyons said it may end up a Cat 3 instead of a Cat 4 at landfall.

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:46 AM

Re: Frank P.

Did you know Wal-Mart is giving out free dial-up internet service to storm-ravaged areas?

Assuming you still have your dial-up modem...

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:47 AM

Re: Mobile NOAA radar

Other than this "missing" Frank P. earlier today, that's the best damn news I've heard all day!

EDIT: not the free internet...the CAT III in case there was any confusion

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:51 AM

Re: Mobile NOAA radar

Yeah... Frances opened up in a similar fashion, but on a much larger scale of course. It looks like this is just a short-term aberration, as it's already starting to close up again in the last few radar frames.

Hopefully it's enough to take some of the punch out.

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:51 AM

Re: Mobile NOAA radar

Man! Look at this link:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmob.shtml

Eye is open....

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:51 AM

hurricane webcam

They have another vehicle in town parked outside the police station. The camera still seems operational....for now.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/webcam/

rule

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 02:58 AM

Re: hurricane webcam

They will probably get a bill from the EPA for floating that Isuzu...

Wonder if they drained the fuel from it?

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 16 2004 03:00 AM

Re: hurricane webcam

Shhhh, don't tell anyone or they will be billing everyone in FL for doing the same thing.

(User)

Thu Sep 16 2004 03:03 AM

NEW THREAD

ED just put up a new thread...time to head that way...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 03:03 AM

Re: Mobile NOAA radar

if the phone lines are down what did they give you?? jason has been tracking tornado's since 3:00. i hope he makes it thru the nite. they are popping up inland/north of here. Marianna just had a major one, blountstown has one going now. it just won't end. frank is a "ole salt". he would know when to bail. i am sure its power/telephone/cable line problems. we still have power here but the way the winds have picked up the last half hour i don't know how much longer

cjzydeco

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 03:10 AM

Re: Frank P.

My experience since moving to Florida has been that power goes out all the time at the slighest storm. I come home several times a week to blinking clocks and a reset computer. I went through Frances last week -- actually almost 2 weeks ago -- here in Vero Beach and the cable TV went out around 9 am, with power going bye bye soon afterward around noon during minimal TS winds.

My old fashioned land line phone lasted until at least 11 pm. Later during the worst of the storm (after midnight), I picked it up to test it and it was dead. My ATT cell phone had coverage throughout most of the storm and most of the time in the days and weeks that followed. Other companies had less reliable or no coverage for several days.

The point is that you shouldn't freak out just cause someone is no longer posting. Power goes out early and over a wide area with a storm like this. Transformers explode and trees topple. As scary as it is loose contact with the outside world while a storm rages around you, it's probably safer for the folks enduring this storm to be paying attention to their shelter and family (and pets) rather than reading posts right now. Later, once the storm really digs in is when you wish you had the distraction of the computer, the TV, or a phone.

By the way, my power finally got restored yesterday.

Dude...not freaking at all...just kinda have FP's MO and it's odd he hasn't attempted to either post or at least check in...das all

Robert

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 16 2004 03:21 AM

Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now!

Well back finnally back , life getting to normal after frances. I am sure its sucks to be living on the gulf coast right now thank god its not a 5 THANK GOD.
The highest wind i got 6 miles from the coast right smack dab where the center of the eye crossed dead center was 1 minute 45 mph sustained with consistant small gusts to 60 - 77 mph and less consitant bigger very quick gusts to 80 - 95 biggest gust was 106 mph all taken from backyard weather station at 35 feet elevation.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 16 2004 03:27 AM

Re: Frank P.

LI PHIL....has anyone called him? sometimes you can call them...but they can't call you...don't ask me why...it just works sometimes....i work in the wireless field...the phone signals can be diminished greatly with rain, wind, and wet trees surrounding the house.

meto

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 16 2004 03:28 AM

Re: New Orleans Weather Radio

ch. 11 fort meyers says a canadian high will be coming south and turn jeanne west.