MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:08 AM
Ivan Aftermath

Hurricane Ivan made landfall in Gulf Shores, AL, putting the eastern eyewall into the Florida Panhandle, which, by all reports, received the worst damage. Including the Interstate 10 bridge being knocked out at Escambia County.

(Ap Photo)

Reports are still sketchy as people survey the damage but I suspect we'll be hearing a lot more soon.

Jeanne is still being tracked as well.... more on that later

Ivan is still a hurricane, a minimal one, at 11AM, moving ever so slowly through central Alabama.

I am gone this weekend for a family emergency I will be back monday, the others on the site will take over in the meantime.


Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orleans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop

** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.

Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use

Mike Cornelius
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Newport News, VA 23606

Event RelatedLinks
Dauphin Island Updates
Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Mobile Radar
Dauphin Island Weather Station Reports
Police , fire and rescue scanner, and other live video/audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Another Mobile Radar
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Mark Sudduth and Hurricanetrack.com are in Gulf Shores - Hurricanetrack.com HIRT team webcam
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:12 AM
Jeanne at 11?

Where's the discussion...Ivan has been out for a half hour?

kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:24 AM
Re: Jeanne at 11?

Spoke to family in Vero this morning. They are still going through frequent power outages and they aren't taking their plywood down for a while.
Family in Mobile, P-goula, and Gautier are okay as well. I don't think they got too much damage. (fam. in Mobile has a house on the bay. They haven't gone to check things out yet)
Still waiting to hear about beach house in PCB............


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:27 AM
Re: Jeanne at 11?

Oh great. Look at the 5 day for Jeanne. CAT II chugging through the Bahamas on Sunday...ENOUGH!

(At least if it takes the NHC track it may by my headache, not Florida's).


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:31 AM
Pensacola?

Is anyone else disturbed by the lack of "news" coming out of Pensacola area?
The I-10 bridge is very bad and will take a long time to repair.
I am concerned that Pensacola and the Islands to the SW of there are very badly hit from Ivan.

ANyone have up to date news?


kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:34 AM
Re: Pensacola?

TWC is showing video now. Doesn't look too good.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:35 AM
Re: Pensacola?

It took a full day to get an accurate assessment of damage after Andrew, Charley, and even Ivan's destruction in the Caribbean. We'll know a lot more by this evening.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:37 AM
Re: Pensacola?

That pic of the I 10 Bridge is enough to make me cringe...

kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:38 AM
Re: Pensacola?

Cantore just said that Santa Rosa/Okelousa (sp?) Island is under H2O.

kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:41 AM
Re: Pensacola?

Quote:

That pic of the I 10 Bridge is enough to make me cringe... [/quote

Can you post a link, please?

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:43 AM
Re: Pensacola?

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/

SoonerShawn
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:44 AM
Jeanne

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/...ve&partner=

For Florida's sake I hope she doesn't take accuweather's path.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:44 AM
Re: Pensacola?

www.foxnews.com

The pic is AP copyrighted so I don't know if I can paste it.


Lisa NC
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:47 AM
Re: Jeanne

If you extend the strike line Jeane wouldn't be good for the North Gulf state either. It looks like her path would take into the area just hit.

kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:50 AM
Re: Jeanne

CHEESE AND RICE!!!!!!! (sorry, catholic. try not to take his name in vain)

This is ridiculas (sp?). Enough is enough.


GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:51 AM
Re: Jeanne at 11?

hey phil, that track is shifted a bit to the left from the last one isnt it?

GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:55 AM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

CHEESE AND RICE!!!!!!! (sorry, catholic. try not to take his name in vain)


I love that!

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:56 AM
Re: Jeanne at 11?

Sure is shifted more left (west)...nothing surprises me anymore...I sure hope accuwx and JB are both out to lunch on Jeanne... the spaghetti models argue for a northerly turn though, completely sparing FL...but I would imagine they will all move to the left on the next run (these are from the 18z).

KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:56 AM
Re: Jeanne

I don't like this one. I'd like to go with what's behind door #3, please!

I'm in SW Florida and am planning to keep the lanai furniture and stuff inside a while longer.


Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:58 AM
News from Pensacola...delayed but coming in

I was watching the NBC affiliate's live internet stream....no videos..bu their reports are out across the area....seems that most Pensacola beach areas are inaccessable b/c their roads are gone in some places....It looks like Baldwin County, AL and the metro Pensacola and beaches took the worst. That I-10 photo is awesome. What the hell was a truck doing on the bridge? duh.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:58 AM
Re: Jeanne at 11?

yes but see Bastardi today who argues the models are right side biased

Breeezy
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:59 AM
Re: Jeanne

how did Accuweather determine their projected path of Jeanne?....totally different from the track on TWC. How reliable has Accuweather been?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:01 PM
Re: News from Pensacola...delayed but coming in

Quote:

I What the hell was a truck doing on the bridge? duh.




lets just hope it was on the bridge and that it wasn't transplanted from somewhere else.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:02 PM
Re: Jeanne

Just got back from watching JB streaming viedos. Agree with him totally on Jeanne and the whole right bias model thing. I have said this before and I'll say it again, I didn't think that Jeanne would re-curve because of Ivan backing down. The NHC bases their forecasts on models and US models to boot, one of these models being the GFS, which I think has some problems in the whole where it's going to go thing but works great with the motion. My thinking for Jeanne is that she will continue her current motion (maybe even to NNW) and then as Ivan backs down turn west into Florida.

Those two waves coming off the coast of Africa look like trouble. The longer it takes for the first wave to develop then the more likely it is to hit the United States, we'll see. By next week we could very well be seing Karl and Lisa.

Also, Ivan is still pounding parts of the southeast with rain. That high coming down from Canada and the remmants of Ivan will spell GALE for the Mid-Atlatic states Fri and Sat. This will give them a preview of what Ivan was like. Hope everyone's okay that was in the path of Ivan and Jason's family.


Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:02 PM
Re: Jeanne at 11?

You want to see "to-the-right" model track biased? Look at this link of Ivan from beggining to end....I think it the same with Frances as well....i think Bastardi has a point!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:02 PM
Re: Jeanne

>>> How reliable has Accuweather been?

Nobody got Ivan right until 5-6 days out...but accuwx had a better handle on it than NHC, in my opinion.

I think JB sees everything heading for Fla now as well as the GOM...let's hope he's wrong.


Allison
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:04 PM
Ivan Sat Loops


Can someone post a link to a satellite loop showing the eye actually making landfall? The loops I've been looking at this morning are "jumpy," and don't show the eye until after it is alreay on shore.

Thanks!

Allison


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:05 PM
Re: Jeanne

Can anyone explain to me why Accuweather would show a different path for Jeanne than the NHC? I mean seriously, how irresponsible is that? The storm may do that in the end but how irresponsible is that at this point? As far as I'm concerned they have lost all credibility with me.I believe strongly that the NHC's path is the one that should be followed. I'll go to my grave saying they know more about these storms and where they will go than anybody! Why in the world would Accuweather want to put something up there that gets people, who are already on edge, worried more than they already are. My opinion...they are totally lame! By the way, my family in Ft walton Beach suffered some down trees, missing shingles and no power since 5pm yesterday. I know things will be much worse there than that but I'm thankful that they were personally spared anything really bad.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:07 PM
Re: Jeanne

Very good on Ivan, but Bastardi is their chief forecaster on these and he is arguing against the models as being generally biased to the right of the actual forecast path. Part of this forecast is also based on the "noodels wiggling around" on the Ivan model runs past 48 hours and some of them retuning the remnants to the SW which Bastardi said will pull Jeanne westward over the Florida into the GOM
Believe me when I say we don't need that...I drove across Florida to Pt St. Lucie and back yesterday...what you see especially in the 30 mile wide Charley swath is not pretty...absolutely every building with damage even 75 miles inland in that path...something we will see in Pensacola, et. al today, unfortunately


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:09 PM
Re: Ivan Sat Loops

>>> the remmants of Ivan will spell GALE for the Mid-Atlatic states Fri and Sat. This will give them a preview of what Ivan was like

Keith, I can assure you that nothing the Mid-Atlantic states see from Ivan's remnant low will in any way REMOTELY resemble what those who just went through hell faced...

Truck on bridge...disconcerting pic to say the least...how was a truck even ALLOWED on that bridge? One can only hope it was there well before it collapsed and it was stalled or something and the driver made it out safely...

I'm sick to my stomach after this...


GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:09 PM
Re: Jeanne

Well, if the models are a bit to the right then that would make it go into around central florida and skirt up the coast. Wouldnt it?

PFSThunder
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:10 PM
Re: Ivan Sat Loops

The missing loops has to do with the eclipse and the satelites not taking photos for about 2 hours. It has been explained in more detail on previous posts.

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:10 PM
Re: Ivan Sat Loops

Quote:


Can someone post a link to a satellite loop showing the eye actually making landfall? The loops I've been looking at this morning are "jumpy," and don't show the eye until after it is alreay on shore.

Thanks!

Allison




IIRC didn't Ivan hit while the sat eclipse was occuring, hence the jump in the images?

Mark


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:11 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

I don't like this one. I'd like to go with what's behind door #3, please!

I'm in SW Florida and am planning to keep the lanai furniture and stuff inside a while longer.




Door # 3 may be worse. If we can keep Jeanne along the coast of Hisp and Cuba at least she won't grow to a monster.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:11 PM
Re: Pensacola?

Quote:

www.foxnews.com

The pic is AP copyrighted so I don't know if I can paste it.




The pic is in the pubic domain once published or broadcast. As long as it appears on a free info site (like this) there is no problem. Always a good idea to credit the publisher. AP tends to chase folks that profit from their work.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:13 PM
Re: Jeanne

OK, I anticipated Jeanne. I'm anticipating "Karl". But what is this about a possible "Lisa"?! For Pete's sake! There is no rest for the weary. What happens in December that brings an end to this"?

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:14 PM
Re: Ivan Sat Loops

Quote:

The missing loops has to do with the eclipse and the satelites not taking photos for about 2 hours. It has been explained in more detail on previous posts.




Oohhh.... ok....

I had briefly looked back at some previous posts, but didn't see anything about it... Thanks for clearing that up!

Allison


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:16 PM
Re: Jeanne

I think that's what they are doing, I'll have to check back on them again but I think you're right.

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:18 PM
Re: Jeanne

I am Lisa... we are generally nice people

ok trying to make some humor


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:20 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

For Florida's sake I hope she doesn't take accuweather's path.


Thanks for your post. Potential for big long term forecast error here. Ultimately, we know Jeanne will take her own path, but at least NHC is usually the most accurate.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:20 PM
Re: Jeanne

You know something guys? i feel like just about everyone who posts on here knows more than me but didn't JB also have Frances going into the Carolinas at one time? In my opinion, When you place your forecast above that of the NHC's then that is pretty arrogant. That is my opinion and I will stand by it. Anyhow, we will just have to see what happens...in the mean time, this pretty much sucks!.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:21 PM
Re: Jeanne

It just seems that this year has more systems forming but there really isn't. Last year we were up to Peter but that year it was pretty much active all season. This year it had only started getting active in August, so it has to make up for it. I wouldn't be surprised if we did get up to p again but then again the wave train and the waters are losing their energy, at least there's one thing good about the tropics!

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:21 PM
Re: Jeanne

That's the argument Accuweather is making... one other note on this the TPC discussion references the FSU superensemble models also doing this. during ivan I can remember at least one reference by the NHC/TPC that remarked on how reliable that model had performed in forecasting Ivan.
The main argument is that many of the models sample from the tropical and subtropical regions only and do not register well at all what the temperate regions are doing.
With the gales from ivan for example...those result from an interaction of Ivan and a high pressure area in the temperate zone.. It is this high that is supposed to block Ivan and push it back to the wsw on the weekend. It is this factor he says is not being properly weighed in the usual model runs that TPC is relying upon.
I don;t know but it makes good discussion fodder.
Don't be to harsh on Accuweather...I'm sure if they did not actually believe what they wrote, they certainly would not publically isswue such an outlook just to scare people.


sprinterblue
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:23 PM
Re: Jeanne

Looking at the IR pics, Jeanne is very interesting to look at right now. To the right of her is a large area of convection that is not getting wrapped around Jeanne. Seems like if she was stronger, the convection would be pulled around the circulation. Even if Jeanne gets eaten by the mountains in the Dominican Republic, I wonder if this other area of convection will then develop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg


eulogia
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:24 PM
Re: Jeanne

The NHC lost all credibility with me when they predicted a landfall of Tampa Bay area with Charley and stood by that prediction even when Charley was heading into Charlotte Harbour. The NHC even had SW Florida in fits over Ivan for a few days while there were people on this board who had the foresight to predict landfall in the Biloxi or Mobile area. Geesh.

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:24 PM
Re: Jeanne

>>> didn't JB also have Frances going into the Carolinas at one time?

Yep, and so did I...long tracking CV storms have a history of scaring the s--t out of Florida before pummelling Hattaras...(think Floyd & Isabel). This year is changing A LOT of those preconceived notions...that's for damn sure.

As far as JB, he nailed Alex & Gaston way before anyone...he likes going out on a limb and when he's on he's DEAD SOLID PERFECT. Unfortunately, he hasn't been that spot on with the biggies!


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:27 PM
Re: Jeanne

That can happen, the energy breaks off from the intial system and acts as the shortwave trough, this happened with Frances but it didn't really develop because of an unfavorable enviorment. That's a very good observation!

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:27 PM
Re: Jeanne

JB did argue for two days that Frances would go up the coast.
He is admittedly competing with NHC/TPC. Accuweather is after all a for profit corporation I think, contrasted with the NHC, There is money to be made in having a good track record of forecasting catastrophic weather event accurately I think


KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:27 PM
Re: Jeanne

Eulogia - where are you? I'm very North Naples; actually, North Central Collier County.

Karen


eulogia
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:30 PM
Re: Jeanne

I'm in Cape Coral - the Southwest portion, right near Pine Island.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:32 PM
Re: Jeanne

I think that, for whatever reason, the GFS has had a hard time this year forecasting the intensity of ridges and movement of troughs with relation to the tropical systems. This is in turn skews some of the other models because they use the GFS outlook as part of their forecasting. I'm pretty sure the European and Canadian models do not do this. With that said the forecasts have trended to bring systems too far north too soon. Charley never made it near as far north as was forecasted(though the trough that pulled him across the state was incredibly strong and rare for that time of year). Frances had been forecast for a while to make landfall around Daytona Beach-Cocoa Beach. When in reality she never made it that far north. Ivan had been forecast to pass over Jamaica and in between the Caymans and Cuba. That too did not materialize. I'm not saying that Jeanne will stay further south than forecast, mostly because Ivan will have an affect on her movement, and that wasn't present with the other systems. Right now it appears that there is a wide open space off the coast of Florida for her to take, but she needs to get to there before the ridge inches back in. The last couple sat loops I checked it looked like the ridge has crept down as far south as about 22n and as far west as about 72w. This will change over the next few days, and how much it does depends on exactly where Ivan goes and how strong he is while he's travelling there.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:36 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

The NHC lost all credibility with me when they predicted a landfall of Tampa Bay area with Charley and stood by that prediction even when Charley was heading into Charlotte Harbour. The NHC even had SW Florida in fits over Ivan for a few days while there were people on this board who had the foresight to predict landfall in the Biloxi or Mobile area. Geesh.


I think you're confusing NHC with the news media talking heads. NHC had been warning SW Florida all along about Charley, with hurricane warnings in place right up until landfall. It was the news media which focused on Tampa Bay.
NHC didn't have anyone in fits over Ivan - only the TV/radio talkers, EOC folks, and rumor mongers who built everyone up into a frenzy over gasoline rationing and evacuation. What business do EOC and school boards have closing schools for the possibility of a hurricane 3 or more days away? NHC didn't cause any of that!


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:36 PM
Re: Jeanne

I understand totally what you're saying but don't you think that the NHC is really getting all the information they have at their disposal and then putting out what they think is their best forecast at that given time? They warn that their projections can have large margins of errors and to not pay attention to one specific spot for landfall. Did they ever actually come out and say " It's hitting Tampa bay on the nose?' I know with Frances they never gave a specific landfall point until the final hours and they didn't with Ivan either. I know they had thier little line drawn through the cone area but the whole time the local forecasters here were saying" it's coming in at Vero Beach" the NHC was saying "its to early to speculate on an exact landfall point." I know cuz I was reading those NHC updates every six hours. People on this board did pick the right point of landfall for Ivan but In my opinion they are still making very educated guesses(sp). i don't mean to take anything away from anyone on here because I have heaps of respect for the people who post on here. I learn so much reading them but even with that being said in the end I''m sticking with the NHC. I feel on average you will always do better that way.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:39 PM
Re: Jeanne

Do you know how many models there actually are.?..ever count all the strands of "spaghetti"?
There are as many models probably as registered uses on this forum...none of them are actually perfectly correct at any time and the NHC uses a consensus of them to forecast (there is even a concensus model and their track is usually close to that).
This forum serves a similar function to the models. From an admittedly mostly amatuer but somewhat knowledgable group of participants we too generate a sense of consensus about what we see that guides us into some certainty about what will happen...We do pretty good... many here accurately had Charley, Frances and "Ivan the terrible" too Not everybody agreed but the correct ideas were out there for us all to discuss.
We are doing it by good old fashioned observation of the weather from the Sats etc...this is what makes this forum so much fun. We are not all right or any one of us totally right at any one time but out of all this chatter some ideas of some credibllity emerge, that I rely upon.
Good Job!


Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:41 PM
Re: Jeanne

One other idea about the models....the FSU Super hadn't even picked up on the MS/AL targetting until about 3 or 4 days out. I distinctly remember Clark on here hinting (cauz he can't say due to nondisclosures, etc) that the FSU Super was NOT forecasting anything west of Pensacola, despite what people were rumoring on the boards. Up until about 4 days out, it was still aiming around the Big Bend area, just like all the other models.

I think, in retrospect, none of the models handled how far west Ivan made it without making its northward turn. Many excellent Mets also didn't see the far westward movement. Once Ivan skated past Grand Cayman, with the eyewall mostly missing it, most of the models began to initialize aiming at MS/AL, and they verified pretty well.

The models are definitely getting better than they were in the past. The human factor, well, that's a different story than the models. I know more than a few people who kept swearing that Ivan was going to come through the Yucatan Gap and turn right into Tampa, or points just slightly north.

Now, Jeanne, well, that's another pickle....I'm going to keep the plywood handy, because I just get this feeling (Jeanne or not) that we're not done in Central Florida yet. Swear this has got something to do with my college graduation. Finally graduate and try to get a job, and all the hurricanes start coming at us....figures....


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:44 PM
Re: Jeanne

You're right Phil...It has definetly changed everyone of those preconcieved notions!

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:45 PM
Re: Jeanne

"I'm not saying that Jeanne will stay further south than forecast, mostly because Ivan will have an affect on her movement, and that wasn't present with the other systems."

I totally agree with you except this part. You say that Jeanne will not stay further south becasue of Ivan are you sure about that?


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:46 PM
Re: Jeanne

I don't have a real problem with Accuweather coming up with their own track. Using the models, I could probably come up with a forecast track that is nearly as accurate most of the time 5 days out. When it gets within the 48-72 hour window, the NHC has gotten very good. Anyway, I believe the Accuweather should clearly indicate that this is not the official track of the National Hurricane Center. Most people believe it is, then get confused when they see two different ones. This is more of an issue for local stations that use the Accuweather track, and don't tell the locals watching on TV. I'm not sure, but I think the Orlando Accuweather station (Channel 6?) went back to using the NHC track after Charley. I suspect they got complaints.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:47 PM
Re: Jeanne

RevUp: The forecast path of Ivan on WEd-Fri had the 5 day line consistenly over the west central florida coast or adjacent waters,,,so we were all real jittery. I had to make business decisions on Friday after the 1:00 update and based on that I canceled my trip to Ft. Myers Monday and Pt.St Lucie Tuesday. Schools and Gov. Offices announced they were closed Monday and Tuesday. Turned out that all was well good for us bad for others...but I think you see the point

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:48 PM
Re: Ivan Aftermath

Anyone heard anything about Navarre, FL? Thanks for your help in advance. I'm evacuted to Atlanta right now and I am worried about my home.

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:48 PM
Re: Jeanne

>>> You're right Phil

No there's a phrase I'm NOT used to hearing

Lets just say that the NHC have done a very good job with their calls at 72 hours (3 days)...and they are the ONLY one to trust for a forecast. As scottsvb reminds us a true forecast is really only out to 72 hrs...anything beyond that is speculation.

wonder if rick still has a boat to go home to? If you're out there rick...hope everything turned out OK...


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:49 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

Do you know how many models there actually are.?..ever count all the strands of "spaghetti"?
There are as many models probably as registered uses on this forum...none of them are actually perfectly correct at any time and the NHC uses a consensus of them to forecast (there is even a concensus model and their track is usually close to that).
This forum serves a similar function to the models. From an admittedly mostly amatuer but somewhat knowledgable group of participants we too generate a sense of consensus about what we see that guides us into some certainty about what will happen...We do pretty good... many here accurately had Charley, Frances and "Ivan the terrible" too Not everybody agreed but the correct ideas were out there for us all to discuss.
We are doing it by good old fashioned observation of the weather from the Sats etc...this is what makes this forum so much fun. We are not all right or any one of us totally right at any one time but out of all this chatter some ideas of some credibllity emerge, that I rely upon.
Good Job!




There are 30 or 40 models that I am aware of used in the North America hurricane realm. There are probably more. Keep in mind that many of them are based on other models, with somebody tweaking it in an attempt to get better. The GFS is used as a base for several of them.


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:55 PM
Re: Jeanne

I agree! we have got to separate the media hype from what the actual facts are. I am convinced they just want their big over sensationalized story. Otherwise, why would MSNBC find some meteorolist in College Park, PA showing one model that had Jeanne coming into Florida as if it was written in stone? My wife saw this two times. HYPE...I hate the media coverage for the most part. Because I think their main agenda is their story. i guess I have too many opinions but whatever.HaHa

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:55 PM
Re: Jeanne

Once the NHC reinitialized Ivan after it had continued wes for two days longer than predicted it nailed it on the 5 day.
What happened in the earlier predictions was, as Bastardi argues, the models faild to factor the vigorous ULL in the mid atlantic unti lit had already kicked the ridge controlling Ivan pretty hard to the SW. I took tow days for the effect of that to really register and by then it had spent itself and lifted out to the north, thus making the 5 day run starting on Sat evening reliable.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 12:58 PM
Jeanne - Eye?

Am I crazy? (Never mind don't answer that) It looks to me like Jeanne is getting better organized as she travels across the Dominican. There seems to be an eye opening up on the IR Sat picture. I know this is counter-intuitive, but...the wrapping seems to be improving as well.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:02 PM
Re: Jeanne - Eye?

On the visible the eye actually filled in but it is sure holding its own...good out flow and low level in flow from the SE.

Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:03 PM
Re: Jeanne

For another interesting take on models and their future, check out this story on the Pensacola New Journal's website: Supercomputers Aid Hurricane Forecasting. It gives an interesting look at the state of modeling, what they do, and so forth. I can't say that I'm not looking forward to the Maryland model in the next year or two. The Gulfstream Doppler should do a nice job in helping to get more accurate initialization data into the model.

On a side note, and this is the computer programmer in me, I wonder if the NOAA has ever contemplated coming up with a distributed computer based model concept? With the success of things like SETI there's a huge market of computer afficionados out there who have tons of CPU cycles wasting energy. I would bet good money there's tons of people (myself whole heartedly included) who would love to donate our CPU idle time to parsing data for a distributed model system. All you'd need to do is create a thin client for computers to run, allowing them to download "wedges" of grid data for processing, and return the results to the central server. Depending on participation, you could probably jam out a model result fairly quickly. Just make it an experimental model so people don't take it as NHC gospel and it could work wonders. Heck, at USF where I go to college, they leave their lab computers on 24/7. That's hundreds of computers sitting idle, most of which are 1.5gHz+ machines. That's one college campus....


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:06 PM
Will the good news ever end?

1145z Dvorak's have Jeanne at 5.0/5.0! Folks, that translates to a CAT II...even more good news is that 91L is 2.0/2.0 (which it has been thru two runs)...need to watch for the 1745z posting...

EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL


sprinterblue
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:10 PM
Re: Jeanne - Eye?

stormhound - I agree. the latest loop does seem to show an eye reforming. Jeanne still has yet to go over the highest peaks, but she seems to be a fighter.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:10 PM
Re: Jeanne

Doug, you're right. I was jittery along with everyone else. Some people have to make business decisions based on a M-F schedule. I, like you, take exception when people start blaming NHC for our inconveniences. It seems that as our society "advances," we become less and less tolerant of the "errors" in our technology, especially when it concerns something that none of us can control.
I should point out that at least one school board on the west coast of Florida decided to wait on their decision, and ended up having classes this past Monday. Unfortunately, many people from Florida voluntarily evacuated last Friday to points that are now in the path of Ivan. Go figure.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:12 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

I understood it, but then again I've modeled chemical reactions using supercomputers for a living so I guess I have more knowledge about these things. That article on forcast models was great by the way. Thanks!

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:12 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

Believe it or not I kinda do...Nah, not really, I'm just a surfer but i do like computer stuff

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:13 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

richie...

good think Indiatlantic didn't end up IN THE ATLANTIC!


eulogia
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:21 PM
Re: Jeanne

Fort Myers News-Press

This is a link to an article in the News-Press which illustrates some of the confusion with the NHC track of Charley. First of all, the P-3 Orions weren't even flying into Charley for readings. Were there other models that took none of those "readings" into consideration when constructing their own predictions?


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:22 PM
Re: Jeanne

I wouldn't be surprised if the 5PM shifts the track more to the west in keeping with the current models'forecast. No one along the SE coast should be considered out of the woods at least until Saturday night.

tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:29 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

Quote:


EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL




Sure thing

I'll translate using smaller non-technical words for the computer illiterate...
(not necessarily you, Phil - although I haven't been lurking long enough to know )


A distributed computer model would basically use thousands of personal computers to analyze pieces of the data. Because there would be so many computers working on the data and sending the results back home to NOAA, it is possible that even the most complex models could be run in minutes instead of hours.

Of course, such a system would allow the models to become increasingly more complex (and hopefully more accurate). As the popularity of the program would soar, hundreds of thousands or even millions of folks would help get really complex computer models done quickly.

This would (in theory) mean greater understanding and therefore better forecasting .

I have a cluster I'd offer to the cause if such a creature is ever created


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:29 PM
Re: Jeanne

thanks for your post. A lot of mets (now-casting) obviously did a great job in partnership with NHC.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:31 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

Phil, I know that! But I will tell you that I was out of the area when it hit and wasn't really prepared for the damage I saw when we returned. I really thought that it would be no worse than Erin in '95 but because of the duration of the storm it was considerably worse. I have a pile of what was my former landscaped yard that is about 20' long and 8' high which is nothing when you consider that people lost parts of their roofs and stuff.A guy I work with had $25000 worth of damage done to his house. A shop I sell boards to here in Indialantic lost its roof and had major flooding inside. But you know what? We actually do still have a beach and we have our boardwalk also which is amazing. So anyhow, Indialantic definetly isn't "in the Atlantic"!

BeachBum
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:31 PM
Re: I-10

From dani on old thread:
Quote:

With part of I-10 being gone and the fact that Hwy 90 that connects pensacola to pace in santa rosa is probably under water, there is no way to get back to our house.



Alabama SR 59 should get you to the beach. You can catch it at I-65 exit 34.


AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:31 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

"I'm not saying that Jeanne will stay further south than forecast, mostly because Ivan will have an affect on her movement, and that wasn't present with the other systems."

I totally agree with you except this part. You say that Jeanne will not stay further south becasue of Ivan are you sure about that?




I probably should have worded that a bit better...lol. Depending on where Ivan tracks inland, and how strong he is while travelling, that will affect whether Jeanne makes that turn to the north or continues on a more WNW motion.

And here's my take on the local mets vs NHC forecast. Something that I learned in class at the University of Florida, and somehow managed to remember(haha), is that local news is a huge business for TV stations. Many times that's the only thing that seperates these stations with relation to local markets. I.E. no one really cares that Friends airs on NBC, but they might only watch Channel 2 for their local news/weather. And oftentimes that also carries over into the national news. So if you can capture an audience for a guaranteed amount of time, like 5:30-7pm, that's just money in the bank. I would never imply that a meteorologist would skew a forecast for ratings, but would they cover one scenario that's not as likely as others because it could potentially affect more viewers? Maybe. If a local station can keep a viewer tuned into +24hr coverage when a storm is close because that viewer enjoys the meteorologist's view, then they will be raking in tons of ad dollars. Sorry for the off topic post, just wanted to shed a little light on this topic.


erauwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:36 PM
Re: Jeanne

Here in Daytona Beach, my school - Embry-Riddle decided to cancel school all week this week .... the decision was made last Friday (Sept 10) ... and we all see where the hurricane went, right? Having already missed 11 days of the semester (which we aren't making up, btw) ... I wouldn't be suprised if they just add a few more days off next week with the possibility of Jeanne threating the FL coastline .... talk about jittery ......


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:39 PM
Re: Jeanne

Hello all..new here. Watched Ivan on its trek, God bless all those affected. Now watching Jeanne. My family is in SC while I am in Kuwait supporting the Coalition Forces. I hope Jeanne spares the SE coast. Bless all of you for keeping this site informative and updated. I appreciate it!

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:40 PM
Re: Jeanne

I don't think thats off topic at all. I feel it totally relates to what is being discussed here. What these newspeople say and do has a big effect on people who could be making decisions in potentially life threating situations.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:40 PM
Re: Jeanne

Great I cant find my post from what I was projecting on Jeanne.......I know I posted it here and on another site. Oh well maybe phil can find it. Anyways really its just a update from the other day. Its funny that I totally agree with JB on this forcast. Thing is its going to be weakend down to 60mph, or less, until it finally comes off the coast of Haiti and then scrap Cuba with just enough n component to strength slowly. Georges anyone????? Thing is we dont know what can happen really. First off if anyone remember my post the other day I said there is 2-3 scenerios with Jeanne. We all agree that it skims the coast of Hispaniola and is just s of the turks, and ene of Cuba and n of Port au Prince by Friday morning. Now Global models want to take this north to 30N and 75W by Sunday afternoon. Its saying that there is a weakness over florida up to Ivan remenents. (Could be), but I dont think its that far east and also Ivan will be retrogratiing w or wsw back into Tenn by Sunday as a very strong ridge dives down into the midatlantic states. This would still cause Jeanne to move w or wnw slowly into Daytona-Jacksonville area by Tuesday. 2nd scenerio is (what I feel) it continue just n of due w along the Cuban coast ( just north of there) and just south of Abaco isle, Bah by Sat even. The weakness will be further w and slowly beginning to push more w,,although a turn to the NW will be expected and it will be nearing the Keys or extreme Se Florida. Now does it go up the east coast of Florida or west coast before a turn on the west coast up w-central and bend more w with the ridge to the NE towards La? Or does it skim the keys and head out into the central gulf,,,,that is more then 5 days out. So right now I have it just south of Abaco Island, Bahamas on my 3 day track. Intensity is too hard to pinpoint as to how much it will get disrupted over Hispaniola. After that right now its up in the air.
Ivan forcast was 25-40miles to the west of his landfall.Very good for 4-5 days out forcast from last Saturday. Winds 125-130mph called for as Cat 3. NHC had it still as cat 4 on theyre projection but they didnt included in theyre thoughts of the dry air coming in on the west side as I saw weakning the system some. I hope everyone is recovering from this dangerous storm.


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:41 PM
Re: Jeanne

Well looks like Jeanne could be holding her own over DR. Certainly shows signs of continuing to slowly organise. The core is actually quite small, but not as small as yesterday. Should hold her own as she crosses the land mass, then probably restrengthen over water. I think she will be a Florida threat down the road, with more of a westward motion than currently forecast.

Also noticed in the latest TWO that they will probably start advisories on TD 12 later today. Its located southwest of the Azores and is well organised.

Regards


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:41 PM
Re: next up?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORMING ABOUT ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON
ON THIS SYSTEM.


time to move to Montana. er, no hurricanes there right?


ZooKeeper
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:46 PM
Re: Pensacola?

Hi All,
I'm new to the site having discovered it during Frances and have been observing and learning ever since.

A friend with family in P-cola spoke with them this AM and the news wasn't too good. Couple of family members are unaccounted for. A lot of homes with major damage and/or no roofs. Trees and and power lines down all over blocking some people in their homes. Curfew put on, telling people to stay safe and stay put. From what she's heard they're in pretty rough shape. Nat'l Guard is already there to help, but can't get across the river due to the damaged bridge. Hopefully somebody has enough sense to get those boys a helicopter or a couple of boats?
Anybody with any other news?


DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:48 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

Quote:

EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL




Wait Wait..I THINK i got this one!!! I think I remember my son talking about this when he was in the EarthCam program. You let your computers idle time be used to crunch figures for the big program?? I believe there have been several successful programs of this nature.

(jumping up and down...I got one!! I got one!!!)




LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:52 PM
scottsvb...

>>> Great I cant find my post from what I was projecting on Jeanne.......I know I posted it here and on another site. Oh well maybe phil can find it.

Sorry, scott...I'm not lookin' back at them posts no more

Besides, what you said after that was great. Saturday will be the day we know where she wants to go...


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:55 PM
Re: scottsvb...

http://www.fhp.state.fl.us/traffic/crs_h002.htm

Bye all


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:55 PM
Re: Jeanne

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Punta Gorda within the cone of probability when Charley turned toward the coast?

I think when you are prediciting a point of landfall along the coast line when the storm is moving on a diagonal path along the coastline is extremely difficult.

I think the NHC's only fault was not recognizing the turn soon enough.
The local Mets had the turn pegged a couple of hours before NHC put out th word.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:56 PM
Navarre

Has anyone heard on the condition of the homes around Navarre? An earlier post mentioned Santa Rosa Island being under water.

Thank you for your help.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:57 PM
Re: Jeanne

I agree that Jeanne is indicating the same tendencies as Ivan. with regard to it's evident predisposition to continuously trend south and west of the NHC forecasts...

I tried to point that out with Ivan several times, noting that New Orleans was at risk, even before Ivan rounded Cuba...

Jeanne is doing the same thing... THE NHC has continued to adjust its track west with each update, and Jeanne is already farther south (again) than the latest projected path... cutting straight west across the DR, rather than turning WNW as predicted...

West, west, west... yet again... somebody needs to tweak their models...


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:58 PM
Re: Jeanne

FYI The cab of the truck in the photo is missing, apparantly it's underwater... with the driver still in it.

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 01:58 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

Quote:

Quote:


EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL




Sure thing

I'll translate using smaller non-technical words for the computer illiterate...
(not necessarily you, Phil - although I haven't been lurking long enough to know )


A distributed computer model would basically use thousands of personal computers to analyze pieces of the data. Because there would be so many computers working on the data and sending the results back home to NOAA, it is possible that even the most complex models could be run in minutes instead of hours.

Of course, such a system would allow the models to become increasingly more complex (and hopefully more accurate). As the popularity of the program would soar, hundreds of thousands or even millions of folks would help get really complex computer models done quickly.

This would (in theory) mean greater understanding and therefore better forecasting .

I have a cluster I'd offer to the cause if such a creature is ever created





Could you maintain security throughout on a project like that?


Staggy
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:05 PM
Re: Intro

Being new here I figured I'd introduce myself. I've been tracking storms (being a native of south Florida) since I was about 10 (40 now). I remember the pre-internet (and home computer and cable TV) days where all we had to go on was what we were told on local TV and tracking was done on a paper map. We've come a long way in the past few years. Now we can see just about everything the NHC uses for thier forecasts and have the tools to come up with our own.

I was introduced to this site (from a post on a fishing forum) a week or so ago and have been reading every post since. Its nice to see what others are thinking to compare what I've come up with.

Tom


KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:05 PM
Re: Jeanne

Punta Gorda may have been within the cone when Charley turned. I have been told not to trust anything in the GOM because it is so difficult to predict. However, Charley turned quickly and at the same time, strengthened from a 2 to a 4. All of the local mets called it a good while before the NHC. At least, that was my recollection. I think that this season's storms have really shown that despite all of the technology, it's just not easy to predict where hurricanes will go, especially several days in advance. I will always err on the side of caution.

tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:11 PM
Re: Intro

Quote:

Could you maintain security throughout on a project like that?




Using whatever verification codes (MD5 or the like) you want, you can maintain the integrity of the data. Seti does it, in fact, I believe most of them do.

Step one - NOAA gets its data (in the best-case scenario) continuously. They have a cluster which crunches that data and splits it up into chunks.

Step 2
Basically, a checksum is derived at the source (in this case NOAA) of each outgoing packet. Algorithms that create such a creature are plentiful and fairly efficient.

Step 3
Users download their chunks and their desktop client receives a checksum with them. The client verifies the integrity of the chunks and then processes things.

Step 4

The client finishes processing, creates a new checksum and packages the results - sending them back to NOAA and grabbing more chunks.

Step E
NOAA verifies the new checksum, verifies data and then clears the chunk from the "expected" or "to-be-processed" list.

Wash hands and repeat as necessary

But (since I tend to give rather circumspect answers) - yes, you could rather easily maintain security/integrity of the outgoing and incoming data through any number of existing methods.


Edited because I grabbed the wrong quote

Further edited to expound upon my earlier statement.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:12 PM
Re: Jeanne

I'm really getting tired of the NHC taking heat for Charley. The bottom line is, Was there a Hurricane Warning in place? If yes, then you should expect the full brunt of the storm. The local media wanted to focus on Tampa because it would have been a huge disaster. Not that the people in the Punta Gorda area didn't suffer a disaster.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:19 PM
Re: Jeanne

Totally true!

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:20 PM
Re: Intro

Thanks tpratch. I appreciate the detailed answer. For the past few months I was thinking along those same lines when I got into looking at the models and how long they take to run.

eulogia
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:21 PM
Re: Jeanne

My recollection as well. Not to say that many of the "news" stations don't obviously chomp at the bit when there is a chance at a big weather story. The point is that the title "National Hurricane Center" implies a certain level of expertise and care in obtaining information before diseminating it to the public. In the case of Charley, obviously, that wasn't done, since the aircraft that would have provided the most accurate information were not even being used. Not to let this lead on to government conspiracies, etc., but you certainly must be able to understand that most people realise a report given is only as good as the information it's based upon (setting aside the matter of whether the information is being interpreted correctly. In this equation, the constant can be inferred that the people at the NHC have sufficient knowlege to interpret the information they receive.) Please forgive ramblings.

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:23 PM
TD 12

TD 12 has formed in the Atlantic, first advisory 5pm EDT. And the wave behind it also forecast to develop, so TD 13 likely in a couple of days.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:23 PM
Worried about the opposite too

Hearing the complaints against the NHC regarding Charley makes me wonder if we also won't start hearing complaints about the NHC about New Orleans with Ivan. People may start bashing the NHC for putting New Orleans under a Hurricane Warning when they saw very little from Ivan. I think people always tend to bash the NHC when wrong, but tend to give them little credit when correct. They have done a great job this year with 3 day forecasting.

Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:24 PM
Re: Jeanne

Meanwhile Jeanne is forming an eye OVER the DR landmass.

Also, for those who are trying to get information on the Pensacola area...go to the WPMI NBC affiliate website:

http://www.wpmi.com/

The TV station is broadcasting live via the internet.


ZooKeeper
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:25 PM
Re: Jeanne

Sounds a little like how the media talked about New Orleans and Mobile over the last couple of days, huh? Focused so heavy on NO and then had to shuffle for Mobile.

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:26 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

Sounds a little like how the media talked about New Orleans and Mobile over the last couple of days, huh? Focused so heavy on NO and then had to shuffle for Mobile.




Exactly. Mobile isn't a story. NO under 15 ft of water is.


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:28 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

I'm really getting tired of the NHC taking heat for Charley. The bottom line is, Was there a Hurricane Warning in place? If yes, then you should expect the full brunt of the storm. The local media wanted to focus on Tampa because it would have been a huge disaster. Not that the people in the Punta Gorda area didn't suffer a disaster.




IIRC: was not the media focusing on New Orleans This time around? You'd have thought southern alabama and florida were cow pastures from the attention they received.

Mark


tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:28 PM
Re: Intro

Quote:

Thanks tpratch. I appreciate the detailed answer. For the past few months I was thinking along those same lines when I got into looking at the models and how long they take to run.




Ain't no thang (as they say in the vernacular)

I'm actually enjoying a rather slack day here at the office so I've been lurking a lot more than is usual for me. Between the slow day and the fact that I actually have my power back at home - this may in fact become a regular occurance.

Oh, and call me Pratch or Tom - I figured my dad (the original Pratch) might just want to reg his name here so I left the nickname available. Yes - I realize it's all you have to go on so it's just a way to get those who read posts to know how to grab my attention in the future


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:30 PM
Re: Jeanne

Once again, let me point out that they clearly state the margins of error in their forecasts. What was the stretch of that coast that had been put under a "hurricane warning'? I really don't believe they ever said "look out Tampa Bay because it's coming to you directly". They put up hurricane warnings that covered a way larger area then Tampa Bay. Our local Channel 9 meteorologist called Charlies turn way before the NHC did. Do I think the NHC makes mistakes? Sure..but I would only fault them for not issuing something like an emergency update rather than just waiting for their 2pm update to state the trackand intensity had changed. The bottom line is everyone in a "hurricane warning" area that is put up by the NHC needs to realize that they can get hit!

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:30 PM
Re: Jeanne

Even then, they are missing the big damage that occured east of Mobile.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:30 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

My recollection as well. Not to say that many of the "news" stations don't obviously chomp at the bit when there is a chance at a big weather story. The point is that the title "National Hurricane Center" implies a certain level of expertise and care in obtaining information before diseminating it to the public. In the case of Charley, obviously, that wasn't done, since the aircraft that would have provided the most accurate information were not even being used. Not to let this lead on to government conspiracies, etc., but you certainly must be able to understand that most people realise a report given is only as good as the information it's based upon (setting aside the matter of whether the information is being interpreted correctly. In this equation, the constant can be inferred that the people at the NHC have sufficient knowlege to interpret the information they receive.) Please forgive ramblings.




I remember distictly receiving recon reports that reported winds were up to Cat 4 status just as Charley turned toward the coast. THis was a couple of hours before landfall.
The planes were flying into the storm and were reporting.

At least that's how I remember it.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:35 PM
Jeanne

As of 2 p.m., NHC says:
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

The watches and warnings almost always follow this step ladder effect. SE Bahamas, Central Bahamas, NW Bahamas, and of course then the Florida East Coast. Now, I am not saying this storm is going to hit Florida, but this step ladder effect almost always adds the next step we all don't want to see.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:36 PM
random question

I'm a college student from IL following some of these storms and just wondering if anyone knows how wide the diameter of Ivan's eye was just before/during landfall? Any info would be appreciated!

jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:42 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

As of 2 p.m., NHC says:
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

The watches and warnings almost always follow this step ladder effect. SE Bahamas, Central Bahamas, NW Bahamas, and of course then the Florida East Coast. Now, I am not saying this storm is going to hit Florida, but this step ladder effect almost always adds the next step we all don't want to see.




hey,

i wwas up your way on sat night of frances. drove up from lauderdale to shoot some video. exited 95 at delray and came right up 1 all the way to west palm. it wasus in the car and a few tv trucks around and that was it. hope jeanne doesnt come your way.

later


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:46 PM
Couplathreethings...

Man, step away from the computer to eat lunch and a whole bunch of new stuff comes up.

First off, for Eulogia, I'd have to check this but I believe the plane(s)? in question had mechanical trouble during Charley...I know one mission this year was aborted...memory failing...so that MIGHT have been the reason...anyone else recall that and if so was that during Charley?

Second...regarding the NO hoopla...I believe it was the mayor who ordered voluntary evac long before the NHC ever put up hurricane warnings...so don't blame the NHC for that...again, I'd have to check. Steve made sure the storm stayed away from them anyways...

Third...I believe Ivan's eye was approximately 50 miles wide at landfall, though, again, I'd have to check.

Fourth...I was kind of being tongue-in-cheek with my anyone understand Londovir comment...I did understand most of it, although I appreciate the layman's version as well. Great idea, thou I'm sure it's not the first time something like this has been proposed...

Whew...now back to Jeanne!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:49 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

Quote:

Could you maintain security throughout on a project like that?




Yes... Since each of the thousands/millions of computers worldwide only do work on a small parcel of data, they can't have access to the big scheme of things. Only the "mothership" computer can piece it all together.


ZooKeeper
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:51 PM
Re: Jeanne

Hey! Watch that cow pasture remark! My husband works for a dairy farm. Frances left us a present of over 38 sink holes in their fields. One so big the owner could only decide to fence it off and use it as a new pond once it fills up from all the flooding in our area.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:53 PM
new depression

TD12 will be classified at 5 pm
12L.NONAME


tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:54 PM
Re: Couplathreethings...

Quote:

Fourth...I was kind of being tongue-in-cheek with my anyone understand Londovir comment...I did understand most of it, although I appreciate the layman's version as well. Great idea, thou I'm sure it's not the first time something like this has been proposed...

Whew...now back to Jeanne!




I'd suspected as much - but I also figured there would be folks who hadn't a clue about things - hence my long-winded version.


sullynole
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:54 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

Once again, let me point out that they clearly state the margins of error in their forecasts. What was the stretch of that coast that had been put under a "hurricane warning'? I really don't believe they ever said "look out Tampa Bay because it's coming to you directly". They put up hurricane warnings that covered a way larger area then Tampa Bay. Our local Channel 9 meteorologist called Charlies turn way before the NHC did. Do I think the NHC makes mistakes? Sure..but I would only fault them for not issuing something like an emergency update rather than just waiting for their 2pm update to state the trackand intensity had changed. The bottom line is everyone in a "hurricane warning" area that is put up by the NHC needs to realize that they can get hit!




almost every meteorologist knew it wasn't getting all the way up to tampa bay. That's one reason why NHC had warnings up for the places far south of Tampa Bay, just as they had warnings up well east of New Orleans for Ivan. Who did the media focus on with Ivan?? New Orleans... they did learn somewhat however not to totaly focus on the worst case distaster scenario.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 02:59 PM
Re: new depression

SHPS has TD12 at 99 kt in 120 hours. If that verifies, or even comes close to verifying, the only good thing is that it might help curve it north well before the islands. May as well develop it early and curve it away early.....

I think 2 of the 4 tropical models show a N or NNW motion at 5 days (the other 2 keeping it at low latitudes - something like 9N and 14N), but obviously it's too early to tell, and the globals will probably have a better handle on it now that it's initialized as a depression.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:03 PM
Re: Ivan Aftermath

Well, even here in Tallahassee, I'm dealing with the aftermath of Ivan.

Many tornado signatures on radar overnight, leading to a few warnings and a few tornadoes on the ground. None here in the city, though, but in nevertheless affecting others around here.

Lost power around 4:30am when one band passed directly over town, but then went to sleep and woke up about 8:45am to find power on. However, I was awoken for good again at about 11:30am by a phone call saying "how many times if the power going to go out?" Well, it's out until tomorrow at my place, as a wind gust knocked a large branch onto a power line, which sagged and caused a lightpost to snap in half, bringing down the post. It knocked out power and the winds are a bit too high to get up there, so they've told us we can't expect to get power back until tomorrow. Thus, anything on my end will be severely limited until then.

Just goes to show you the effects of the storm can - and do - reach far away from the center. It is an isolated event, but it only takes one branch coming down to cause something like this.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:04 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

Here's a link for a current ongoing project.....
http://www.aspenleaf.com/distributed/ap-science.html#cpdn


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:05 PM
Re: Ivan Aftermath

Clarke, What is your expert opinion on Jeanne. Honestly, we just need some waves this time and no "hits"!

ZooKeeper
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:06 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:


almost every meteorologist knew it wasn't getting all the way up to tampa bay. That's one reason why NHC had warnings up for the places far south of Tampa Bay, just as they had warnings up well east of New Orleans for Ivan.




I live in Levy county in the Big Bend area and they kept telling us practically right until the sharp turn that Charley was headed our way right after it crossed Tampa.

Hmmm...we caught the top half of Frances when she came through, the bottom half when Bonnie went through and Ivan was supposedly on path to us for several days...I wonder if somebody's trying to tell us something???


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:07 PM
Re: Jeanne

There's support for Bastardi from the Superensemble...the Frances path is not entirely out of the question for Jeanne. I don't know much more than that, though, so it's going to be one to watch. In any case, models are consistent in building in a ridge in the 5-7 day time frame above Jeanne, shifting the storm back to the west...how far up the coast remains to be seen, however. NHC current 5 day may be a bit fast.

Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:08 PM
Re: Ivan Aftermath

Clark...glad to see Tally survived the storm....what are your thoughts on Jeanne? What does the FSU Superensemle say? Do you think she will survive the DR mountains? I will patiently await your comments

mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:12 PM
Attachment
Hi Y'all from Mobile !!

Hi Phil and all. Made it through Ivan just fine; thanks for all of the prayers ! Thank God for that little jog to the east right before landfall (sorry P'cola) Being in west Mobile, it made things a lot better for us I'm sure. Things last night were about 1/2 as bad as I thought they would be -- I remembered Frederic being a LOT worse !! I went to bed around midnight when we lost power and actually managed to sleep through the worst of it. Our power is, amazingly, already back on. I haven't ventured out past my street but I'll attach a few pics (unimpressive as they are). The worst damage was a neighbor's tree that just missed both his house and his car. My yard is full of tree limbs and the fence is a little wobbly, but I am truly blessed !! I haven't even looked yet to see where Jeanne is going; I'm afraid to.

Thanks again everyone for your concern and prayers. How are the rest of the Mobilians ?? Rick ? Cindy ?


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:18 PM
Jeanne and others

There are three scenarios for Jeanne:
4 models take it east of the Peninsula, get it between Cape Hatteras and Jacksonville, stall it, and move it west

JMA takes it on a Floyd track to a point east of central Florida, stalls it, and moves it SW to take it onshore near WPB

GFDL takes it N of Antilles, into Miami, and up the middle of the state, similar to King in 1950

Most of the models take TD12 out to sea, and also develop two systems behind it in 6 days


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:22 PM
Re: Hi Y'all from Mobile !!

MBFly,

Glad you're OK...you did get lucky...rick hasn't checked back in, not sure about cindy...haven't been paying close enough attention.

Thanks for letting us know you made it thru!


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:25 PM
Re: Jeanne

Man, I really don't want to deal with that again. I hope it changes 5 days out or something. You know it really sucks to be getting back to normal only to have to possibly go thru it all over again.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:30 PM
Jeanne

I haven't seen the Accuweather track of Jeanne...but as I noted a few days ago, this thing is likely to slow down quite a bit in a couple of days. If Ivan dissipates over land, I don't know that there will be enough of a weakness to turn the storm. A further northward component is likely, but the models I've seen keep building the ridge back in, making me wonder if we aren't going to see a recurvature motion followed by a turn westward. I haven't looked at it enough to venture a guess as to what happens, but the forecast from a couple of days ago of a weak hurricane in the central Bahamas not going anywhere fast in about 3 days (from now) looks pretty good. Where it goes from there...Bastardi may well be on to something, but we'll have to see how it plays out.

And TD 12...unless I see something quickly to change my mind, I think it might well be one for the fish. There are plenty of troughs out there to, in my opinion, keep it away from land. It won't recurve as fast as Danielle did, but a similar track isn't out of the question. But, again, I haven't had the chance to take a look at it to any large extent...and really, I wish this season would SLOW DOWN!


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:35 PM
article on new models, and improved forecasting.

At times, when the NHC or models have come under fire, I stated that the error in the 5 day forecasts are now what the 3 day forecasts were 20 years ago. That may have been a conservative estimate.
According to this article, the average 3 day error by the NHC has decreased 50% since 1998 alone. They do talk a little about the new Md. model also.
I will not blast the NHC for Charley, they had warnings up for where it hit. The media always focuses on the worst-case scenario.
In this last storm, I will not blast them for their errors due to the size/strength of the storm, and they eventually did get it right. Because it went farther west than everyone thought, that doesn't make the western-most models good at forecasting hurricanes, any more than the eastern most models bad, either. In fact, they stayed too far to the left until it was nearing the coast. The interesting thing is, if we were our parents age, (for those of us that are out of school), there were no models to criticize, therefore, no discussion. I bet they wish they had them.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/9/16/84808.shtml


Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:36 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

Thanks for this link - forgot about that project. Course, that one is trying to do a 50 year prediction. Even then, it only took them 3 months to do 880K modeled years. Since a hurricane model is only really concerned with at most a 5 day prediction (more if time allows, but errors make unusable), a similar program would be able to crank out a model analysis in no time whatsoever....

Sorry for being "wordy" when I mentioned it first time. I gotta remember this is a meteorology fan board, not a computer science one. ;-)

Oh, and as far as the security of the system, I would think it's negligible. First, somebody would have to want to hack the client to see how it crunches the numbers the NOAA sends it. Second, they'd want to bother to try and falsify the analysis their computer did. Third, it's unlikely that any falsification of the data would really change the overall model that much. True, there's some "butterfly effect" stuff going on (you know, where they say a butterfly flapping its wings over Kansas causes a typhoon someday later in the Pacific), but we're talking about thousands of data points, dropsondes, etc, and I don't think it would matter much. Plus, you call the thing experimental and leave it at that. Not like some of the loopy models this year that take storms to South America are all that useful, either. :-)

It's a shame this isn't being done, or at least, not openly publicized. I'd love to work on something like that. Actually make use of my BA in Mathematics and BS in Computer Science, instead of [shudder] teaching. :-) (Just kidding, I'd still teach, best job in the world, even if the pay is miserable and there's no respect from the students...)


Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:42 PM
NWS Melbourne Discussion

NWS in MLB starting to pay a little more attention to Jeanne.

"MON-THU...FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DEPENDANT UPON FUTURE MOVEMENT/INTENSITY OF A HURRICANE...THIS ONE NAMED JEANNE. SHORT RANGE MODELS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH MOVEMENT WNW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND THIS TIME...GENERAL MODEL TREND IS FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS TRACK PRESENTS A POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR THE SE U.S. COAST NEXT WEEK AS STRONG/LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND FAR OFFSHORE...BLOCKING FURTHER NORTHWARD MOTION OF HURRICANE JEANNE. 16/15Z NHC FORECAST BRINGS OUTER TS WIND RADII THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND BRUSHING PORTIONS OF CWA COAST MON NIGHT/TUESDAY. WHILE THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE SHOWN WITHIN 4PM ZFP/CWF PACKAGE...USERS MUST REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE FORECASTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE INHERENTLY CONTAIN LARGE ERRORS...AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE."


tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:42 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

Quote:

Thanks for this link - forgot about that project. Course, that one is trying to do a 50 year prediction. Even then, it only took them 3 months to do 880K modeled years. Since a hurricane model is only really concerned with at most a 5 day prediction (more if time allows, but errors make unusable), a similar program would be able to crank out a model analysis in no time whatsoever....

Sorry for being "wordy" when I mentioned it first time. I gotta remember this is a meteorology fan board, not a computer science one. ;-)

Oh, and as far as the security of the system, I would think it's negligible. First, somebody would have to want to hack the client to see how it crunches the numbers the NOAA sends it. Second, they'd want to bother to try and falsify the analysis their computer did. Third, it's unlikely that any falsification of the data would really change the overall model that much. True, there's some "butterfly effect" stuff going on (you know, where they say a butterfly flapping its wings over Kansas causes a typhoon someday later in the Pacific), but we're talking about thousands of data points, dropsondes, etc, and I don't think it would matter much. Plus, you call the thing experimental and leave it at that. Not like some of the loopy models this year that take storms to South America are all that useful, either. :-)

It's a shame this isn't being done, or at least, not openly publicized. I'd love to work on something like that. Actually make use of my BA in Mathematics and BS in Computer Science, instead of [shudder] teaching. :-) (Just kidding, I'd still teach, best job in the world, even if the pay is miserable and there's no respect from the students...)





You got the time, I got the beer. My email is in my profile. What I don't mention in there is my knowledge of JavaScript, ActionScript and the like. I'm a good asset because I can code well, can understand that which I cannot code and can package it in an oh-so-pretty fashion.

Off to search for open source modules


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:43 PM
Re: Jeanne

Not slowing down it seems and we are not even into the So.Carribean season yet still getting thes African waves, second peak of season 1st week of October....think I'll just leave the boards up until December or first frost which ever comes first.

Good stuff on the models. The NHC two days before the land fall of Charley had it pegged, and then shifted the track west fr 48 hours. When it did The GFDL fixed on the Charlotte Harbor solution, and that seemed to jive with what the upper air as intrepreted from thw WV was telling us the shear zone was too far south to support the land fall north of Tampa.
However Punta Gorda and Ft. Myers had long been not only in the cone but also under the line and the forcast track. On the 13th of August only had Charley about 25 miles off shore as it passed by that to me is a direct hit virtually. I don't recall thinking that NHC had missed the mark on Charley


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:44 PM
Re: Will the good news ever end?

NHC does a very good job when it really comes down to it with the landfall areas. But after a 3 day landfall forcast,,,,its forcasts are basically run by models solutions. They pretty much run off the models with some intuition of the surrounding enviroment and other data that we dont always get to see. Main thing is,,when it comes down to it on a landfall within 3 days,,they are generally correct in theyre 100 miles each side of the possible landfall.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:44 PM
Re: Jeanne

Without a doubt we would be in a pickle with another hit on the ol FLA coast......................I am keeping up the boards and headin out for more water and other essentials...

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:44 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

I agree Mr.Spock....totally!!! How about lets take it back even further to the early 20th century when monster storms moved into Galveston TX and the Florida Keys. Most of those people probably just saw thunderstorms moving in off the ocean but the storm kept getting stronger and stronger until thousands were killed. Imagine having to deal with it on that level. We should be thankful for what we got!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:47 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Richie what intensity level do you see Jeanne coming at ECF at?

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:47 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

absolutely.......think of all the lives that have been saved just by satellite technology alone, then the models.......How did we ever forecast before?

Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:50 PM
Re: Hi Y'all from Mobile !!

A tense night of watching TWC is over, and now my family sits and waits for word on the fate of our apartment. We live in the Cayo Grande Apartments in Navarre. These are the same apartments that TWC crew in Fort Walton stayed at, only our comlex is much closer to Pensacola, and just across the street from Santa Rosa Bay/Navarre Beach. Based on the coverage we've seen in surrounding areas, we're preparing ourselves for the worst.

I want to thank all of the mods and members on this board. I've learned a (heck) of a lot from you folks. And if anyone in the Navarre area has any news, I'd be greatful if you could pass it along!


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:53 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

I haven't a clue. You should ask one of the more qualified posters on here right now...i.e Clark, Mr Spock or whoever else might be on at this time. They couuld help you witth that question way more than I could.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:55 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

I bet we both want to know since your locale is on the coast...............would be nice to get lucky as we did with Isabel but not counting on it.

So putting it out there to the resident Mets..............what are we looking at in EC Florida?


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 03:59 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Sure do want to know but once again it's going to be the old wait and see game. I hate that part.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:01 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

I don't have a clue right now, and the circulation is on the coast, and isn't acting like it. I never actually never tried intensity forecasts before.
If it doesn't get off the coast soon, it may be inhibited, but it just hasn't hurt it.
By the way, P.R. is still getting hammered by Jeanne's convective tail.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:03 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Yeah sure bites the big one......................would be nice to not have yet another weekend jacked up by these thing dingies.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:04 PM
Re: Hi Y'all from Mobile !!

TD 12 forms, this one I think will be a fish spinner, I mean it has that TUTT up there in the north Atlantic and it gives me no reason why it wouldn't be a fish spinner. Sorry if this was already said haven't had time to read all the posts. Anyway the Gobal models are breaking down the ridge by Japan, that could be a signal that these New England highs will start to die and the pattern will flip. The PNA is forecasted to go positive while the NAO is forecasted to become netural; that should cause a heat streak in the northeast but nothing else. I'm surprised that TD 12 formed so quick, they usually wait till they enter the Leeward Islands. Hopefully this storm will be a Danielle and we won't have to worry about it. There's just to many storms forming, by the time you forecast the one you got two others waiting. Back to the books, stupid math report

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:09 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

I just saw Joe Bastardi on Fox News with Sheppard Smith and he had his track up there with it running over Florida into the Gulf again. I don't want to beat a dead horse here again but there is just something about a guy putting his track up on national tv and basically disregarding what the NHC's is saying. It just really irritates me. I know that the potential for him to be correct is there and the NHC's future forecast may end up like his but still......He did make a good point about it going in between Frances path and Ivan's path where the water is still warmer because it hasn't been churned up. With all that being said , he still didn't seem REAL confident in the track after 5 days. He did say he's 90% sure it will hit the US.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:14 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

I agree, and he ought to put a disclaimer that it is THEIR opinion, and not that of the NHC. Up here, we had a local news station totally blow a forecast and take credit for getting it right just before it happened.......The Ratings Game

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:14 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Count me in on preppin for this scenario dude....................at this rate we are sure to be underwater by season's end.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:15 PM
model performance

11 days ago I posted on Storm2k , in a forum calling for people to make their predictions as to where they thought Ivan would go, that I thought the storm might threaten the New Orleans area, but I was really leaning towards hiting the Mobile area and maybe 25 miles to the east of Mobile... I think I might have nailed this one.... and one of the biases for that prediction was the model run of the Canadian at the time, which as leaning left with each and every run... so I went with it, and adjusted it somewhat to the right, alittle, as influenced by some other models.... is this more guesscasting then forecasting... naw, because I think they are basically the same provided you have some kind of scientific rationale for your prediction... now I'm not sure how far Ivan's eye went east of Mobile, but I bet is darn close to 25 miles... approximately 11-12 days out on Ivan (not sure exact time period but close enough) the CMC outperformed all other models.... period.... including the FSU SE... my humble opinion only... another note, if my memory does not fail me, the CMC was one of the few models 10 days out or so that took Frances across SE Florida into the GOM....

I think I might start paying attention to what the CMC says on this here Ms Jeanne too....

My wife works for MS Power, she has reports that their sister company, Fl Power has taken a tremendous hit.... employees injuried in their control rooms when the windows blew out, tremendout damage to their facilities.... boy, looks like this area could be without power for a very very long time.....


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:17 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Truth be told, I don't have a clue either. MrSpock has it right with the circulation over land and Puerto Rico getting lashed by the trailing band.

The ultimately intensity will likely be controlled largely by the recovery of the sea surface temperatures through the Bahamas after Frances and how fast this storm is moving. There is noticeably cooler water over the path Frances took, and this storm isn't moving so fast. Couple the small circulation with cooler water and slower motion and I would tend to think only modest strengthening in the 1-4 day period is most likely, but this storm seems to be getting better organized over land, may well not track over the same waters as Frances did, and this season has been anything but predictable.

I would go with the NHC's forecast for now, noting that if anything, I think at later periods it might be a slight bit on the high side. But better prepared than anything.

I went to try to sit in on the 4pm conference call, but the NWS guys here are pretty busy with Ivan still -- not to mention Jeanne -- so I decided it'd be best not to for now. We'll all know soon enough what the 5pm brings.


Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:21 PM
JB

I give Joe B a lot of credit for his forecasts, he had it right with Ivan. Agree on the disclaimer part, but Joe is not really disagreeing with NHC, his track is within NHC's cone of error. And the NHC has shifted their track a little to the south and west of what they had yesterday.

Although the guys at the NHC are specialists in what they do, even they had to be taught by a college professor at some point, so there are forecasters out there just as good as those at the NHC in my opinion.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:25 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

It's one of the big concerns in meteorology and part of the on-going fight between the government/academic and commercial groups in meteorology. The latter think, as a whole, that the government and academic institutions should cease to provide forecasts and information, leaving everything to the commerical, for-profit sector. This would lead to academia developing tools for companies and the government essentially becoming a data source and nothing more...as well as to increased costs for weather forecasts for the general public. Obviously, the government/academic groups disagree with that. Those on the commercial end of things may not have an extreme a viewpoint as presented here, but it's alnog those lines.

As such though, it does not surprise me that Accuweather - one of the big proponents of the change - is more inclined to present their own forecast rather than the NHCs. If anything, they are good businessmen; weathermen, though, that's another story. The NHC official is the track everyone should go off of and, since they are set up as THE authority, work should be done cooperatively to improve these forecasts. It's fine to note the cone of uncertainty, some of the players that may cause the storm to do this, that, or the other...but don't present your own forecast as perhaps being the official one.

Just a pet peeve of mine.


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:30 PM
Re: model performance

AVN takes Jeanne towards NC and recurves it SW into Jacksonville in 144 hours; also has TD12 recurving with another system to the SE following a similar course

CMC has Jeanne NE of teh Bahamas in 72 hours

NOGAPS takes Jeanne to NC and moves west to hit northern SC in 120 hours; UKMET follows a similar course


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:30 PM
Re: JB

I agree but I will say this though...his path down the middle of the cone is not the same as the NHC's so in a sense I feel he is somewhat in disagreement with them. Ok, I really don't know anything this but wouldn't you think that the NHC is putting together the thoughts of a bunch of good forecasters and then coming up with a consensus for their best prediction for the path of a storm?This is as opposed to one guy doing most of the interpreting by himself? Like I said I'm clueless as to how the NHC really works. I just thought I would throw that out there.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:30 PM
Re: model performance

CMC 12Z takes Jeanne through the Bahamas and turns it North and out to sea...It takes Ivan remenants off the VA coast and rapidly NE in to the ATL...no stalling around...

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:33 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

You hit the nail on the head with my lack of affection for accuweather, to whom I used to subscribe to. We, as taxpayers, pay for this data, therefore, it belongs in the public domain. To only be able to get it through subscriptions, would be paying for it twice.
It's bad enough that in NJ you are taxed for sleeping.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:33 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Don't want to bust NHC but JB has a lot of guts to go out there and tell his forecast totally opposite of the NHC. I don't think there should be competition between private and goverment forecasting agenices, they should work together because they both have the same goals. It isn't right having two people saying the exact opposite thing. Also, Clark do you right the model anaylsis discussions because I saw your name there?

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:36 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Truthfully, it all depends on how Accuweather clients present the data. I have no problem with Accuweather putting out their track. I will even note that they have put out a graphic with both the NHC and Accuweather track on it today on their accuweather pro site. The problem happens when the media clients present the charts and do not say that it is Accuweathers and not NHC's. I can not blame Accuweather for their clients misuse of the information.

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:36 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

I say we all stock up on Canadian Club to celebrate with if the CMC is correct!

Clark, Keith234 is referring to a cmc discussion that was posted in the previous thread; at the bottom it said "CLARK". Keith is asking if you wrote it...


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:38 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Thanks Clark...I respect your knowledge and opinion.

dani
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:41 PM
More damage from Pensacola

Apparently not only is a section of I-10 gone, a 30 foot section of the bridge connecting gulf breeze to pensacola beach is gone too. Right now the only way to get to the beach is helicopters or plane. Seems that this storm wrecked serious havoc on the infrastructure of Pensacola.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:44 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

As a business person (not a met) I can attest that there are inherant risks to allowing the private sector to provide weather forecasting. At some point financial pressure will come to bear from advertisers or sponsors.

Imagine if you will that a big advertiser is a building supply retailer (say Plywood Depot)... a large hurricane starts heading for the east coast. Plywood Depot would love to see the initial forecast for Miami... then shifted to Daytona... then changed to Jax.... then to Savannah... then Charleston.... creating a panic and unecessary runs on plywood over 1,200 miles of the east coast.

I think you get the point...Plywood Depot triples sales on the east coast, and the hurricane eventually hits where it would have gone anyway. The same thing could potentially happen if the sponsors were Duracell, Coleman, BP, Chevron, Publix, etc...

Keep the forecasting in the hands of those with no vested interest in the path of the storms...


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:47 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

I have a little analogy for you guys. I shape surfboards for both amateur and pro surfers. What I look for is consistantcy(sp) in what i do ...meaning if I shape 10 boards for one guy and 7-8 of them are good then I've been successful. If I shape 1 board that is good and the guy loves it but the other 9 aren't then I'm not really doing a good job. I'm not saying JB misses 9 out of 10 times, I'm saying ,for the people who think this guy or that guy "nailed it" on a particular storm, then he needs to do that on a consistant basis to really be credible. I think the NHC does that even though they make mistakes. Hey they even have enough sense to put a "disclaimer" on their forecast tracks by acknowledging margins of error.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:47 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Just wanted to point out I am not taking a side. I think the commercial/acedemic/government issue is one where there is a center ground. The NWS needs to be the data gatherer, central warning site and provide the general forecasts. As such, all of this data should be available to the public. The private concerns should be allowed to give their opinions and do their own forecasting. If they want to go further, they can install a data gathering network, radar network and their own supercomputer clusters to do forecasting. Accuweather and other commercial areas provide services that NWS can not supply.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:49 PM
Jeanne

Based on 5 pm discussion it looks like someone on the U.S. east coast gets hit. The question is where? The door will be open to the right and then slammed shut.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:49 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

well if the Canadian hits again with this model run I'll really be impressed... I have not looked at anything lately, just trying to catch up on what's been posted.... and picking up leaves and branches in my yard.... still no power.... and getting hotter by the minute.... sure hope I have power tonight....

took down my plywood on my first floor, second floor, plywood will remain for a while.... not taking any chances until I know what's going on....

the I-10 picture is very similar to damage that Camille did to the Biloxi bridge to Ocean Springs.... but Ivan's is actually even worse that what Camille did, as Camille only rearranged about a quarter mile of segments, none were missing like that on the Florida bridge... although Ivan was not a Cat 5 that certainly was and example of Cat 5 damage in my opinion....


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:54 PM
Re: More damage from Pensacola

Agreed dani. I went to the Pensacoal News Journal's website and they have 15 photo albums of the damage (10 photos each). It's amazing. Ivan was a brutal Cat 3 and appears to have wreaked the most havoc so far this year. Depending on Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, the beaches and then points east toward Destin and Seaside, Ivan could easily add another 15 billion or more to 2004's storm $ total.

As for Jeanne, who knows? There is model support for everything from Fujiwara to an intersection of Ivan's remants and Jeanne in the NE Gulf of Mexico. No call here either way, but it's kind of bizarre that some of us could still get a taste of Ivan 4 or 5 days out.
--------------------------------------------------
richie,

Accuweather has a right to do what they want. We don't live in a socialist society where the government gets the say. People know Bastardi isn't the NHC, just an alternate voice or a check and balance. The whole thing played out in New Orleans for Georges between mets who towed the gov't line and those who were rogue. Bastardi is rogue, but he's also the best there is. That's why you see him on CNN, MSNBC and Fox all the time. We live in a free society so the idea of dissenting viewpoints should be encouraged. If you were a subscriber, you would know that he almost always leaves the endgame to the pros. He might have a slight disagreement and say that, but his whole point is that you trust life and limb to the official source - the NHC. Similarly, we don't live in a libertarian society, so the argument that the tracks should be left up to competing corporate/for-profit interests is not acceptable either. But as usual, the system has found a way to maintain a balance between the gov't and corporate domains even though there is some push and shove between the two for power.

As for Baldwin County, if it is as bad as what I've seen in Pensacola, wow. It was very interesting the way the eye came ashore and sort of hugged the Eastern Shore.

Here's a link to the damage photo albums:

Link to Ivan Photo Galleries

Steve


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 04:57 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

As if the NHC were reading these boards, this excerpt from the 5:00 discussion...

"...this might be a good time to remind everyone that the average five day NHC official forecast error is about 375 miles...in other words...it is still too soon to be sure what portion of the United States might be affected by Jeanne."

If you read the whole discussion, they do sound more confident on a miss for FL but not the US East Coast...


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:03 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

I, personally, will not feel safe until I see this directional change and it starts running within the envelope. So far it has been just like Ivan, south and west of the envelope. Actually, I am hoping she continues W and tears up her core in the mountains.

I have not had time to look, has there been any model runs with good initialization. Last time I looked, the init points and status seemed off.


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:09 PM
Re: More damage from Pensacola

Steve...Your point is well taken and I believe in free speech. Don't get me wrong, there is no way I think the government should have the final say in anything. However, There are too many people making decisions on potentially life threatening situations to be trying to supercede the "real" authority in situations like these. Lots of people don't fully have a grasp of whats going on and they see that, take it as gospel and I think it's wrong. That is just "my" opinion. Not only that, think about all the people living in the Florida penninsula and having lived thru two storms this year already and the threat of a third(Ivan)...only to now see some guy on national tv with a line drawn through the state. I just don't agree with him doing that but he is free to do whatever he wants. Thats not even the issue with me. He may be the best "rogue" forecaster out there and I won't dispute that ...I just hope he's wrong this time.

Lisa NC
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:10 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Phil, if I remember correctly in Ivan's diss. NHC also mention thier margin of error. NHC are the offical people to listen to, and much more knowledgable then the gerenal public. The real mets, not map readers, who broadcast, will usually say this is what I think the storm will do. I have not heard one say this is what the storm will do!!!!!!!!!!!

Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:16 PM
Damage reports from Ivan in Atlanta

Hey all,

Just got back home after running some errands and sheesh, I thought I saw a man with a white beard walking up Peachtree St.

So far, one tornado touchdown in Carrollton around 2 or so, intense amounts of rain in all of Metro Atlanta from 3-5 inches amd still falling, One major thoughrofare (Piedmont Rd at 8th St) is still blocked with a large tree fell onto a car with an entrapment, Scattered power outages troughout the metro area numbering about 150,000...

The major story is that Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport is not letting flights take off and diverting flights away from Atlanta....And it's not over yet

Jeepers, if I wasn't working, I'd have a couple of 7&7's right now....

Be safe everyone


trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:24 PM
JEANEE

I will believe in that Northward turn when i see it.... after Ivan... only thing i trust in forcasting... is that no one really knows..

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:25 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Quote:

As a business person (not a met) I can attest that there are inherant risks to allowing the private sector to provide weather forecasting. At some point financial pressure will come to bear from advertisers or sponsors.

Imagine if you will that a big advertiser is a building supply retailer (say Plywood Depot)... a large hurricane starts heading for the east coast. Plywood Depot would love to see the initial forecast for Miami... then shifted to Daytona... then changed to Jax.... then to Savannah... then Charleston.... creating a panic and unecessary runs on plywood over 1,200 miles of the east coast.

I think you get the point...Plywood Depot triples sales on the east coast, and the hurricane eventually hits where it would have gone anyway. The same thing could potentially happen if the sponsors were Duracell, Coleman, BP, Chevron, Publix, etc...

Keep the forecasting in the hands of those with no vested interest in the path of the storms...


methinks you should check the advertisements on The Weather Channel.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:25 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

While I can't put a number on it, it seems to me the models always have trouble initializing things in the tropics. The 2 reasons that I can think of right of the top of my head are: 1. small-scale system on a relative basis 2. sparse data.
In a way, it's not surprising, based on the above, that there are track errors, and it can be surprising how accurate they are at times.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:29 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Do they sitll have nest-grided models, I have been reading about them, can the computers handle that much infomation?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:30 PM
Re: Damage reports from Ivan in Atlanta

Quote:

Hey all,

Just got back home after running some errands and sheesh, I thought I saw a man with a white beard walking up Peachtree St.

So far, one tornado touchdown in Carrollton around 2 or so, intense amounts of rain in all of Metro Atlanta from 3-5 inches amd still falling, One major thoughrofare (Piedmont Rd at 8th St) is still blocked with a large tree fell onto a car with an entrapment, Scattered power outages troughout the metro area numbering about 150,000...

The major story is that Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport is not letting flights take off and diverting flights away from Atlanta....And it's not over yet

Jeepers, if I wasn't working, I'd have a couple of 7&7's right now....

Be safe everyone


yeah its not too pretty here. looking out the window. I'm strange though, in that I like to be sitting at home watching this type of event rather than hiding from it. I know it sounds weird but its something i loved to do when visting my dad in south carolina as a kid. they had the BEST thunderstorms.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:39 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Yes, the NGM stands for Nested Grid Model. Back in the '80's when I first started using them, there was the LFM and the NGM.
LFM, Limited Fine Mesh
The only thing limited about it was its ability to forecast qpf. The rule of thumb was to halve what it showed. It had major convective feedback problems, and left-track bias, probably due to convective feedback. It has no role in today's forecasting, hence, you can't find it. That's not to say it missed every forecast, but its biases were longer than I am tall it seems.

NGM:
That was considered the stronger of the 2 models then, and it was. By today's standards, it gets little press due to the ETA, GFS, and the new sets like MM5, etc.
It had a problem with cold-air damming situations if memory serves me correctly, and I think it had a right-track bias.
When i was in college in 1987, I started getting the 3 day MRF via facsimili software. Then, that was like a breakthrough.
I provide this as a frame of reference to where we are, from where we've been. Using those models back then really increases my appreciation for those of today in spite of their flaws.
For the record, I almost never look at the NGM anymore.


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:44 PM
Attachment
SHOWDOWN TIME

See ATTACHMENT above.

I don't think I've EVER seen this big of a disagreement between NHC and Accuwx...this is really going to be interesting to see how this plays out...with all the modeling out there for them not to be closer in their forecasts is amazing...

EDIT: perhaps I should have looked a tad closer, accuwx is not using NHC's 5:00 forecast (which takes Jeanne right to the SC border) and maybe accuwx has readjusted their forecast a tad too...but still...


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 05:52 PM
To those who were affected by Ivan

When a storm such as Ivan comes ashore, one struggles with the right words to say. When you realize there are no words, you find that the only thing left is hope.

Clear Channel Radio has been broadcasting live since Hurricane Francis came through. There have been so many phone calls with pleas for help from people who have been suffering for weeks without power and from those who lost everything.

The thing is that not many people know about it. The guys on the air do though, they have been a literal voice in the dark for so many. They take calls everyday from desperate people asking for help.

Floridians are responding.

They put out a call from a diabetic who needs ice to cool her insulin and an FPL guy brings her a few bags the same afternoon.

A woman's eight year old son is comatose and on a ventilator. She needs a generator to cool his room because all the machines have made the heat unbearable. Someone calls to say there will be a generator there that day.
There are countless stories like this everyday. All of them from nameless faceless Floridians.

Neighbors in Vero get together on the third day without power and decide to have a picnic. They all bring the defrosting food from their freezers and grill it up on a neighbors grill. They walk down to the end of the cul-de-sac and ask my 80 year old mother to join them. They had never even met before.

A man buys Krispy Kreme donuts for a hundreds of FPL guys who are gathered together one morning in a staging area. He bought the donuts for them just to say thank you.

A man in Palm Beach County whose power is back on calls to loan his generator to total strangers. Not just once, but twice. The people who borrowed it had their power restored so the man called back to say the generator was available again.

A tree falls on a single mothers car in Miami and a man calls to say he will clear the tree for her. Another woman calls and donates a car.

A man in Port St. Lucie brings his big screen t.v. out in the yard, plugs it into his neighbors generator and they have a movie night for the kids in the neighborhood.

A restaurant in Broward donates thousands of dollars to the victims of Ivan in Jamaica. Another restaurant takes up a collection of food, water clothing and toys.

As I write this 6 South Florida firemen are flying to Jamaica to assist in the recovery efforts. Ten more are in Tallahasse waiting until its safe to go assist the people who are being devastated by Hurricane Ivan.

Four big storms have come ashore this summer. Bonnie, Charlie, Francis, and Ivan. But, we are stronger than we thought. We are survivors, and we genuinely care for our neighbors.

No storm can destroy that.


trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 06:06 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

i think i leaning with accu on this one.. not wishcasting.. but unitl i see it really make a move north.. Jeanne may be committing suicide right now.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 06:11 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Phil, I'll tell you one thing you already know I'm sure. Joe Bastardi believes the models have been trending right all year. Thats one reason why his "official" track is where it is.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 06:15 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

RIcaGa... TWC relies on the NHC for their forecasts. They do not generate their own independant forecasts.

What has been discussed is private sector (for profit) firms that generate forecasts for subscribers, including media such as TV stations, that would disseminate their predictions to the public.


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 06:16 PM
Re: Damage reports from Ivan in Atlanta

Jeff, just talked to my brother he works in Marrieta and is driving home up to North Ga. Said trees down and ligts out, traffic a mess in Atlanta as you said.
Good news is it should blow through the area by tonight.


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 06:19 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Phil, accuweather and NHC tracks at least agree that Nassau in the Bahamas will get hit. !!
Boy, I'm sure rooting for the East track out to sea.
I'm afraid it looks more like another US landfall however.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 06:22 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

I vote for the NHC track.... and that my friends is what you call reverse wishcasting.... I've had my full for the year.... plywood remaining on second floor for remainer of September for sure...

damage from Ivan will be incredible..... still no power....but if that's all I have to complain about then I'm a lucky fella... this thing would have continued on that NNW track Biloxi might be looking like Pensacola..... that east eye wall was just incredible.... one thing for sure, I will NEVER ride out a strong Cat 3, 4 or 5 in Biloxi.... nope.... 1, 2 and weak 3 perhaps...


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 06:26 PM
Re: Pensacola?

Quote:

The pic is in the pubic domain once published or broadcast.




That's simply not true. For an item to enter the public domain, it must either be placed there explicitly, or according to current US statute, 70 years after the death of the author.

Of course, it may be a work-for-hire. If that's the case, the AP (and sucessors) will essentally hold the copyright forever.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 06:33 PM
Correcting my own statement

I almost expected someone to catch me on this. Internet at work died before I could correct it. My previous comment state outside the envelope. That is incorrect. I should say that Jeanne has tracked south and west of the majority of model guidence. Don't want to leave bad info out there. She has been within the NHC's envelope.

My last comment on this will be this. I think the NHC will always lean toward the course of least regret. Note that they are using a quick forecast for Jeanne right now. If the storm does move at this pace, it will verify. I think others do not think it will move at that fast a pace and will end up further south and west. However, that is a slower forecast. Therfore, if the slower forecast begins to verify NHC can switch to it. This was a similar manner to Ivan. It is a more conservative way of forecasting and there is nothing wrong with it. If I think the NHC has a handicap is they they are not able to write up the discussion levels that someone like JB is able to. JB can get rather longwinded at times. NHC discussion have to be brief and highlighting. I am sure more is stated on conference calls, however, those are not generally available to the general public. When all you get is that the forecast is just to the left of model consensus between A model and B model with very little commentary on why, there are always going to be people who wonder and doubt. That is human nature. However, there is not a whole lot NHC can do about it. If I do have a criticism, I wish they would try to do forecast adjustments when within six hours of landfall. I know they issues updates; however, most of the time, those arestating the obvious.


Back to Jeanne, I want to see where the 12 and 24 hour points verify. If they are further south by a significant amount, I have concerns on a Florida landfall.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:04 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

Quote:

This would lead to academia developing tools for companies and the government essentially becoming a data source and nothing more...as well as to increased costs for weather forecasts for the general public.




You're being polite and tactful. What the commerical interests want is government subsidized weather data - the government pays to put in the instrumentation, data collection, quality control, and turn it over to the commericals so they can turn around and sell the general public the data we've already paid for in taxes.

Quote:

As such though, it does not surprise me that Accuweather - one of the big proponents of the change - is more inclined to present their own forecast rather than the NHCs. If anything, they are good businessmen; weathermen, though, that's another story.




You're exceptionally tactful. You've said what I've been thinking of AW ever since I stumbled across this site and started reading all the glowing praise for AW. And you did it in a nice, gentlemanly way.

I'm in Tallahassee, too, but I didn't see to much damage - just some limb damage (so far).


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:08 PM
Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours

Quote:

Back to Jeanne, I want to see where the 12 and 24 hour points verify. If they are further south by a significant amount, I have concerns on a Florida landfall.




If the 12 and 24 hour locations are significantly further south the forecast issued at 5PM EDT 16 Sep 2004, Jeanne will be a shredded shell of herself. The mountains of Hispanola have done in more than one tropical system.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:12 PM
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours

The 12hour, I would agree. I mispoke. The 24 can be along the Haitian coast and still be viable; but in a position of concern.

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:16 PM
JB vs the NHC

>>> If I think the NHC has a handicap is they they are not able to write up the discussion levels that someone like JB is able to. JB can get rather longwinded at times. NHC discussion have to be brief and highlighting.

That is a fair and valid point, but Stacy Stewart seems to be able to do it quite nicely, thank you.

Just a note that Ivan is not thru killing...if I heard correctly (wasn't really paying all that much attention), Greg Forbes I think just announced that Ivan is now ranked #2 in terms of producing tornadoes! I hate to say it, but when all is said and done, there will be more than 100 dead before Ivan is but a very bad memory.

Matt33 or something like that (I think it's the return of our favorite former poster myself...) opined on another forum: "Do you think they'll retire Ivan". They would have retired Ivan even if he had never come near the US...lets see, Isadore, Isabel & now Ivan. Three "I" storms retired in three years...do we need to worry about Irene, Isaac & Ingrid now?

NHC vs. Accuwx...will be interesting to see how the end game plays out. Jeanne is looking more and more like a US strike...do we need any more? Karl, hopefully, will spin the fishes.

I vote we make the official "end" of the hurricane season September 15, anyone agree?


darthaggie
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:19 PM
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours

Quote:

The 12hour, I would agree. I mispoke. The 24 can be along the Haitian coast and still be viable; but in a position of concern.




I'm gonna guess Jeanne is going to skirt right along the coast. We saw similar behaviour with Ivan @ Jamaica. We'll see what we'll see in three days. Things should become a hair more apparent...or scary, depending on who and were...

(formerly anonposter...I signed up...)


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:22 PM
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours

Guys, I gotta tell you. I've always liked Shepard Smith on Fox News but I'm slowly losing respect for this guy. I just saw him say "Next, Jeanne could be headed into Florida". Then his weather guy comes on after him, shows the NHC forecast and says "while it could come into Florida , it's beginning to look like it won't." I couldn't believe he wrecked the story for Shep. i guess for him sensationalizing this is more important than what the experts are saying at this time about the storm. I'm disappointed in the guy.At the same time though, I wouldn't bet on anything til its past.

Lisa NC
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:22 PM
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours

Just took a look at Jeane on Sat loop. She is already back over water. She went north sooner than expected

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:24 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Hey Phil,

I'm gonna go with the NHC too. Starting a new trend like Frank said, the anti-wishcasting spell. That attachment from accuweather places landfall exactly on top of my house.
Speaking of showdown time, are you getting ready for the big series starting tomorrow night?


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:26 PM
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours

Quote:

Guys, I gotta tell you. I've always liked Shepard Smith on Fox News but I'm slowly losing respect for this guy. I just saw him say "Next, Jeanne could be headed into Florida". Then his weather guy comes on after him and shows the NHC forecast and says "while it could come into Florida , it's beginning to look like it won't." I couldn't believe he wrecked the story for Shep.




That is what is called a lack of communication. Someone did not properly setup the tease on that.


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:28 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

El Duque vs. Arroyo...heh. Game 1 is ours...

Lieber vs. Lowe...heh. Game 2 is ours...

Moose vs. Pedro...gotta go with a push...they've both pitched pretty crappy this season.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled hurricane tracking...


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:32 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Phil..sorry to get off subject but I've been a Yankee fan like forever. They frustrate the you know what out of me sometimes though. Almost to the point where i stop looking at scores and standings. I mean i didn't even know there was a big series this weekend. The problem is they gotta score 10 runs a game to win.thats hard when you get in the post season. Now back to Jeanne.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:38 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Glad Ivan is gone, for some of us.
Here's the breakdown from my area. 1 fatality, car vs falling tree, at 730am this morning. Minor wind and tree damage.
South of here toward the coast they have damage from Cat1 level to Cat2 level, as far as I've seen. Some sparse CAT3 damage, this is all based on Video!
Evacuees were headed home this morning as early as 7am.
They didn't appear to be in a hurry , but the 45+mph winds on the Interstate may have been slowing them down too!
Jackson County,MS hit hard. Uninhabitable areas.
New Orleans-Advising peolpe that live south of I-10 to start returning home. People that live North Of I-10, PLEASE wait til tomorrow to return home.
Evacuation Station WWL 870 AM on the radio-All the info you need and much more!


PFSThunder
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:44 PM
Shep

I agree that he makes everything very dramatic and it has shown through during this hurricane season. Every storm was going to wreck Florida according to him. He is the weakest link to the FOX lineup and I quit watching until 8.

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:45 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Anyone hear from Rick? I don't personally know him, but am worried about how he made out.... There may have been a post way back, but I didn't have time to read everything I missed since I left.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:47 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

I'm sure I mentioned this last year on here and its a little off the topic at hand but what difference in the approach Japan takes towards typhoons and the approach we take. I've riden out two over there when i was working and they don't even know what an evacuation is. The first one we were surfing 2 hours before it hit cuz the waves were good, then went out to dinner, and then went home and rode it out. The second one I worked all day, rushed to finish up because they kept telling me in broken english "typhoon soon coming", drove home at 6pm with the guy I work for as the wind was practically blowing us off the road. We went to his house, shut the panels, showered up, and went out for dinner right in the middle of this thing hitting us head on. Could you imagine that approach in the US? These storms weren't that strong though...probably only Category ones.

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:47 PM
the rick

>>> Anyone hear from Rick?

He has not posted since Tuesday...he bolted the boat though, to head for higher ground, so he's probably OK. His boat may be toast, unfortunately...sure hope not!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:51 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Nah you got to know that Japan is made of a few large sized rocks out in the water............nowhere to go really unless Red China takes 'em all in. I say they got a bad deal all around with typhoons and quakes. I can see you in a karaoke bar while the wind howls outside over there. That ends though once you get a wife and some kids. One than takes less risk right?

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:56 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

I have a wife and kid. In fact, she was with me over there for the first one because our boy wasn't born yet. The second one she was home with Cameron, our boy, and she had to listen to me tell her all about it when I got home. By the way, we were in a restaurant that is their equivilent of a Denny's. I've been through minor earthquakes, temors ...whatever also over there. Seriously, thats no fun at all.

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:58 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Actually I got a good buddy who lives in Japan...they refer to it as "monsoon season"...usually these cyclones aren't too bad (relative term I guess) by they time they get there...he once regaled me with a story how he and a bud (a mate, as he calls them) rode their bikes home 2 miles from Ryungi (I beleive - a "dodgy sort of place" maybe richisurfs can give a better reference) to their apato's (apartments) during what I later discovered was a weak CAT I...they didn't know it...of course they were both 16 sheets to the wind...but still, I guess in Japan they take these things in stride...plus, as Spazz says, where are they gonna go?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 07:58 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Man i hope you don't think I was dissin ya.......for sure one has to go where the gig is to pay them bills and all. The waves generated by Japan's interesting WX patterns had to be killer!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:01 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Yah prolly a culture thang over there.........but they take it in such stride and be chillin the whole time while I would be trippin hard while all my stuff got jacked!

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:02 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Remember the guys from last night that watched their Izuzu fill up with water?

They are down by the Gulf looking for it now......
I'm not saying anything!

and.....
to the person looking for info on Navarre go to www.sunsentinel.com and look for the Ivan pictures link. picture #39 references it. Here is the quote:

Heavy surf draws a crowd
Residents watch as heavy surf generated from Hurricane Ivan pounds the shoreline at Navarre Beach, Fla., State Park. Residents of this barrier island located on Florida's Panhandle were ordered to evacuate as Hurricane Ivan prepared to make landfall early Thursday.


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:05 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Phil... you might have been refering to the Roppongi(sp) district. To be honest, the Japanese tradition of drinking a few beers with your dinner does help you take it more in stride. The funny thing is though., once these storms go thru, they seem to go thru quick, and its absolutely beautiful the next day. In fact, after the last one i still caught my flight out of Narita the next day. In Florida there seems to be all this left over residue after one goes thru. And you are right... they are generally weaker once they hit up there with the exception of Okinawa.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:06 PM
Re: FrankP Update

I located FrankP's home and work numbers. No answer.
I'll try his work number again in the morning. Maybe someone there can update me. No word on Javelin, but he's close enough to FrankP to have no power.
I am concerned about the others, Rick and everyone, I just don't have as many connections in that area to check on things.


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:07 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Spazz..I didn't think you were dissing me at all. To be honest, i love talking about my experiences over there.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:08 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Ah not so sure that is just a Japanese tradition. Me and the guys I room with had our share of tossing beer down when Charley blew over Orlando..............the Asian people don't have the same attachment to possessions that we do.......I think it is a Shinto/Buddhist view or they got great insurance and no killer deductibles!

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:09 PM
Jeanne

the center appeared to have moved north earlier and over water, but is again moving inland and towards the west

Jeanne IR loop

Jeanne radar

it has definately moved west over the last hour


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:10 PM
The Isuzu

>>> Remember the guys from last night that watched their Izuzu fill up with water?

They are down by the Gulf looking for it now......

Damn, that wasn't cheap either...Lowes better not start jacking up the price of plywood to cover that loss...surprised they didn't park it on the I-10 bridge.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:10 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

All righty man............it be cool then..........what is the largest wave you did in Japan? sorry Phil but I am curious to go off topic.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:11 PM
Re: FrankP Update

Good Luck, Now- what is going to happen with Jeanne? I presume we must wait until Saturday AM to get the latest trended track; no wonder many shutters are still up in the Fort Pierce area.

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:12 PM
Re: FrankP Update

Danny,

Frank P. is fine...he posted several times earlier today...as for the others...not sure. But since Jav lives 2 blocks away from Frank, he's probably OK too.

EDIT: Here's my take on the off-topic stuff...after people have gone thru what most on this board have been thru...NOTHING'S OFF TOPIC...sometime talking about something OTHER than the next potential monster helps people deal...there's gonna be an awful lot of PTS (or whatever it's called) Post-Traumatic Stress Syndrome...

As long as you don't curse or attack, I'm letting it all stay up...talk away.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:17 PM
Re: Jeanne

Ok, finally took an actual look at Jeanne. Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't the concentric circles represent increasing isobars towards the center? Wouldn't this show a high pressure area near the eastern edge of Florida/Atlantic ocean. If that is true, why exactly is this storm going up the east coast? Maybe I have no idea what this graph is representing....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:18 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Phil...I'll go off topic this one last time to answer Spazz's question. The waves over there are similiar to here in that they are wind swell generated mostly from local storms and not the long distance ground swells that California or Hawaii gets. The waves I rode on the Sunday before that last typhoon hit that I spoke of, which was on a monday nite, were a solid 6ft. and good. Now back to Jeanne.

Richie, check my last post (I edited it)...it's cool right now...


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:19 PM
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting.

No, that's not me writing those discussions.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:19 PM
Re: Jeanne

There is a high there
Ivan is moving east, and pushing the high east, and is what is going to pull Jeanne to the north while it is in the Atlantic


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:22 PM
Re: Jeanne

It be a waiting game between now and Monday.......2 to see just how far north this baby goes.

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:22 PM
Re: Jeanne

Quote:

There is a high there
Ivan is moving east, and pushing the high east, and is what is going to pull Jeanne to the north while it is in the Atlantic




Ok, I get it... Thanks. The water vapor wasn't very helpful to me since Ivan takes up so much area. I wish those wind diagrams came in loops.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:23 PM
Re: Jeanne

If there has been a trend this season, it has been coast hugging and bouncing storms.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:23 PM
Re: The Isuzu

Do you think the Isuzu had anything to do with the I-10 bridge getting knocked out? I did see a pic of a truck on the bridge, at the hole!

meto
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:23 PM
Re: Jeanne

a high is going to build in.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:25 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

It is fun to watch the surfers..........too bad I am scared of sharks and whatever else be prowling around. Never been to Cali.............I imagine surfer's paradise since I don't think they get hurricanes right?

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:25 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

So if Ivan's #2, that means the top 2 tornado-producing hurricanes would both have come from this season -- Frances is number one.

Sheesh. What a season.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:28 PM
Re: Jeanne


Remember though something I learned on TWC....should this baby do the groove on our FL east coast that her more dangerous NW quad will be not facing us.. All bets are off on that protection should she turn in and there goes my power again for time number 3.


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:28 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

No hurricanes...although I seem to remember a few years back one developed off Mexico and actually was threatening souhtern Cali. Never hit though...does anyone else remember that?They get earthquakes though...I don't know whats worse.

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:30 PM
Re: The Isuzu

Danny,

>>> Do you think the Isuzu had anything to do with the I-10 bridge getting knocked out? I did see a pic of a truck on the bridge, at the hole!

LOL! No, I was cracking wise...perhaps not the best time to do so...it just amazes me what people will do to try to get a story...someone last night said it's going to take a piece of sheet metal going thru a reporter during a live feed to make the networks rethink their policy of reporting live from a storm from such dangerous locations. In the case of the hurricanetrack.com vehicle (the Isuzu), it was loaded with a bunch of sensitive hurricane recording data...as it has been in past storms...and "anchored" to the ground...no one was in the vehicle of course...you had to figure that at some point they'd park the vehicle just a little too close to the danger zone...I haven't checked the website, but I'm guessing that's what's happened here.

As for the tractor trailor on the bridge, I offered my theory earlier today...it stalled or something, and the driver bolted...I cannot imagine that they would permit a vehicle like that to CROSS the bridge with winds that would surely blow it over the side...someone said the cab and driver are in the water...sure hope not...it was just such a riviting shot (photograph) I tried to equate the Lowe's Isuzu placement with the semi on the bridge...didn't do it too well, I guess.


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:30 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Oh yeah..they also get terrible fires..another thing that you can't really say what is worse

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:31 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

You seen Rush Hour? A hurricane would seriously put a lot of LA on the history channel............so many hills in one place and they aint those little mole hills like in the panhandle either.

I heard about the Northridge quake of 94, was living in Chi-town at the time.....man was I greatful to not be living out there..


BillD
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:34 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Earthquakes are worse. At least with hurricanes we know they are coming. And although hunkering down in a cat4/5 hurricane with the wind howling around you is a terrifying experience, having the ground beneath your feet sway and shake is an order of magnitude beyond that. I experienced a very, very small earthquake once, and I don't ever want to go through that again. Everything your mind and body accepts as real and solid (the ground beneath your feet) isn't that way any more.

Bill


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:35 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Someone said that Los Angeles was more like a desert which tells me a lot of dry stuff be lying out by summertime under that heat. If it rains than they get the mudslides. Here at least we get a warning...............

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:35 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

How many tornadoes did Frances produce?
Beulah in 1967 is top with 115 tornadoes


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:36 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Sometimes I don't know what could be worse. Having a knot in your stomach for a week because you don't know if a CAT 4 storm is gonna clean you out or getting hit unexpectedly by an earthquake. I do know that the devastation from a large earthquake is something I hope I never experience.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:37 PM
Re: Jeanne

Ivan should move that ridge a bit to the east as it moves up the eastern seaboard -- it's motoring right now, so to speak, and I'm not so sure it's going to stall out over the mountains (thank goodness!) -- but do note that the graphic in the link you sent is best for tropical cyclones with a pressure < 940mb.

For storms more of Jeanne's ilk, try this one: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html (or just click on the 400-850hPa link on the other page). The one you linked to is for deeper storms steered moreso by the mid and upper level flow, while this one is for weaker storms steered moreso by lower- and mid-level flow.

As Ivan moves east, the ridge should move back a little to the east as well -- though perhaps become amplified due to the outflow from the storms as well as an approaching trough from the west (which I believe is stronger than the models accounted for, as it essentially eroded the ridge that yesterday was oriented along the west side of Ivan near Texas & Oklahoma). That provides the conduit for the steering path the NHC is seeing -- but it remains to be seen how exactly this plays out and whether or not the ridge builds back to the west with time to turn the system once again.


Lisa NC
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:37 PM
Re: The Isuzu

CNN reported the driver of the truck was in the rig.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:38 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

Avoid anything out there and that includes Alaska and its quakes and volcanic eruptions. These same peepz say Chicago's winters are bad but at least the ground don't shake and the fields are not fire hazards...............

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:38 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

Rabbit is right...Beulah holds the record (for now).

Let me amend that post away thingy...Spazz, you should register and then you and Richie can PM each other...I'm not trying to stop anyone from posting anything but now it's getting to be a little chat-room like...

It's easy and free to register...then you can PM any other registered user...hell...some nights I spend an entire evening doing just that and it stays off the main boards...

Thanks for understanding!


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:41 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

Don't remember the exact number, but remember hearing somewhere that Frances was tops. The reports I found in a brief internet search say upwards of 90.

Of note -- Ivan has already dropped ~30 tornadoes in the Tallahassee NWS area alone.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:42 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

I gotcha your drift..................I don't want to kill the cool vibe ya got going here so I will cool it. LOL..........I will register too.

CentralFlorida
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:42 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

Clark the last I heard was 93 tornadoes for Frances could be more

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:45 PM
Re: Jeanne

Thanks Clark... I was using the bookmark I had for Ivan. I did not notice the pressure. The 'correct' picture is a lot more different than I would have expected. Interesting.... So, what exactly do the different steering levels represent? Different altitudes and if so, how do they correlate to pressure (and I don't mean that pressure decreases with altitude... I mean the flow patterns on the graphs)?

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:50 PM
Tornadoes in Frances

TWC said tonight that Frances spawned 105 tornadoes and that so far, Ivan has already produced >60

--Lou


BillD
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:51 PM
Re: Jeanne

I am sure Clark can and will give a more indepth explanation. But the levels are defined by pressure, not by altitude.

Bill


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:52 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

I gotta give some props to the NHC on their forecast as it might be partially correct. They have it recurving and taking that path toward the border between SC and Georgia. It mainly has to do with the placement of that canadaian high, that strong trough coming into the west , and also the remmants of Ivan. Another hard one to forecast, can't we just have a normal system that is easy to track; excellent year for learning though!

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:52 PM
The Isuzu

Heh...

Click here for the full dope on the Isuzu. I shouldn't laugh...These guys are trying to gain valuable info on hurricanes...sometimes, though, discretion is the better part of valor.


dani
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:53 PM
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME

I lived in california during the time the hurricane almost hit southern california. I have also been through earthquakes out there....I would personally say an earthquake is worse than a hurricane for the sole reason, the knowledge of a hurricane hitting is usually more readily available than in an earthquake. I liken it to the difference between being rear-ended and not knowing it was coming and being rear-ended and watching the car hit. Both are terrifying, but at least one you can make some preparations for.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:56 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

Earl was easy to track: shear and westward movement=dissipation

TD12 NRL
note that the winds are now 35 knots on satellite estimate--will we have Karl at 11pm?


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:58 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

Karl will be a fish spinner, plenty and I mean plenty of troughs to make him spin the fishes. I think Jeanne is of more concern and the next wave following Karl, that one looks like trouble.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:58 PM
Karl?

I will update my signature, because I expect that by the time I come back on here (possibly tomorrow afternoon) that there will be another tropical storm in the Atlantic

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 08:59 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

I'm not sure what's up with SSD...the last Dvorak's on TD12 were posted at 1715z (2.0/2.0) and on Jeanne at 1145! I don't think I have a bad link either...anyone got an answer. My take is that unless we get an update, we don't have Karl at 11:00 pm EDT.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:01 PM
Re: Karl?

You think 6 more systems will form, Rabbit the peak of the season was already reached, I'm saying 15 no more no less.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:06 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

Phil...Just want you to know that i want to keep it on topic. I would never want to contibute anything to the board that made it seem like a chatroom because I HATE chatrooms! I'll keep it on Jeanne from here on out. i do feel though that sharing that gut wrenching feeling that I had when Frances was heading towards us with 145mph sustained winds is pretty relevant to any discussion on here. We can talk about all the tchnical aspects of a storm and what it's gonna do but the emotions we feel when one is coming at you is part of it also. I think about the only thing I'm gonna miss when this hurricane season is over will be the contacts that you lose with people on this site because no one will be posting on here. i feel like everyone is really my friend even though we've never met. I'll be careful though from here on out.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:10 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

Relax Richie.............it was my fault for chattin like that and not yours. Since I told LI Phil that I would put a sock in my yap than u be cool and no worries........I gotta cruise anyhow....laterz and all that............I may read for that useful tidbit of 411 but I be keepin quiet. Yo Yo goodnite y'all!

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:14 PM
richisurfs...

Thanks for your understanding...

actually, CFHC really does feel like family. I actually have some plans to visit the boys from PCB at some point (JK, Coop and maybe even Andy1Tom) so you never know.

I know Jav & Frank P. know each other.

You can always put your e-mail address (if you haven't already) in your profile and PM certain posters you think you want to share things with during the "quiet time" (and who's not looking forward to that, huh?" You don't have to make the boards your only "sounding boards..."

I myself am a tad reserved (you're all going, YEAH RIGHT) but I feel like everyone who posts here is family, in some way shape or form. Almost like a 25 HS reunion, if we didn't all have families and responsibilities, I'd almost propose that everyone try to pick a time & date and meet and greet each other some day at some spot...maybe plan a trip to vegas or something...get all our minds off the year from hell. Who knows...I'm not a class mom, so I'm not real good about planning things like that...love to hear from anyone though if they'd be interested in possibly thinking of such a gathering.

I for one would love to meet the faces behind the names.

We could have Jason Kelley give the keynote and Ed could give the nomination speech...and the brothers Cornelius (my thoughts are with you guys right now) could accept the VP and Prez nominations!


PFSThunder
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:15 PM
Re: Jeanne

Does anyone have a link to Jeanne. The floater is still on Ivan and I can't find a close view of the storm. Help would be appreciated.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

floater 2 is on Jeanne.


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:18 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

Everyone says Karl will be a fish spinner. I'd like to refer to him as a wave maker hopefully. So far this season, we have been skunked on this coast for waves from any of these. What waves there were have been terrible and besides that whose heart could be into surfing when so much destruction was caused from them.One other thing, they are gonna make a big deal when this season is over about global warming and stuff like that causing this hurricane season to be so bad when really the number of storms and their intensity is not much different than usual. It's just the weather patterns causing more of them to make landfall. Everything goes in cycles and I'm sure this season is not that out of the ordinary if you look over the past hundreds or thousands of years.Of course, I could be totally wrong because I really don't know that much about it.

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:21 PM
Re: Karl?

Keith:
Last year we had 7 storms named after Sept 20.....
Hurricane JUAN 25-29 SEP
Hurricane KATE 25 SEP-07 OCT
Tropical Storm LARRY 02-06 OCT
Tropical Storm MINDY 10-14 OCT
Tropical Storm NICHOLAS 13-23 OCT
Tropical Storm ODETTE 04-07 DEC
Tropical Storm PETER 09-11 DEC

This year is looking like it might continue that trend

--Lou


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:21 PM
Re: richisurfs...

Sounds like a good plan Phil!

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:23 PM
Re: richisurfs...

Once I get out of school and get my car, that's going to be a production LOL! Anyway I'm watching the weather channel damage report and I can't believe what you guys went through it's un-believeable each time I get more worried of one coming our way and our beaches would be gone. By prayers go out to all you guys that survived this hurricane as today is the new year. Let's hope these hurricanes stop coming by the 25, then we can worry about our snow. Talk to you guys later, got to watch Apprentice, Survivor was awsemone there were canibals there!!

Keith, I wouldn't plan on DRIVING to Vegas from LI...plus who says you're invited (only kidding)


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:28 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

I can't believe Tony Blair said that comment of Gobal Warming making hurricanes stronger and landfalling more often. Gobal Warming is not a proven thing, you have to look at many more things besides the strength of hurricanes, some people take months just making the forecast numbers for the season. It seems to me that Politicans don't regard mets as much as they should. Just my opinion, and I am very opinionated.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:31 PM
Re: JB vs the NHC

One other thing on the point I was making about global warming...Last night I saw Dr. William Gray on Debra Norville and he began to make make the point I made but of course he was doing it in a much more intelligent way because that guy knows what he is talking about. Anyhow, she cut him off, partly because of time limits but i couldn't help feeling it was also because what he was about to say didn't fit their agenda of getting everyone worked up over this. Once again the media wants their big story to hype.Course it could just be me and my general mistrust of them coming through. If anyone hasn't noticed yet...i got an attitude towards them! .

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:45 PM
Re: Pensacola?

Quote:

Quote:

The pic is in the pubic domain once published or broadcast.




That's simply not true. For an item to enter the public domain, it must either be placed there explicitly, or according to current US statute, 70 years after the death of the author.

Of course, it may be a work-for-hire. If that's the case, the AP (and sucessors) will essentally hold the copyright forever.




Not something to get worked up over. Here's the dude who actually took the picture:

Sam Upshaw Jr./PensacolaNewsJournal

Copyright 1997-2004 Pensacola News Journal




Besides, people here are adding pictures from all over the place, private and public. I doubt it is an issue. Seems like if this is a public forum, it's no different than cliping magazine articles and mailing them to grandma


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:48 PM
Re: Pensacola?

I can't PM anybody, could someone help me?

You might have exceeded your storage limit...try deleting some PMs...that might work...otherwise you'll have to wait until Monday when Mike gets back.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:50 PM
Jeanne breakin the law!

You know, I would have expeceted Jeanne to be looking worse or at most keeping the status quo while she is where she his. Granted it is IR presentation; but it seems like she has been improving.

Then again, maybe she is getting more ragged. Eye looks better but looking ragged in other areas.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:52 PM
Re: Pensacola?

I'll try that.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:55 PM
Re: Pensacola?

I realize that I'm a total layman at this but I just took a look at the computer models on Weatherunderground. I know they may not be the most current but not one of them are showing Jeanne running over Florida whereas yesterday some(at least one I think) did. Since I am a Floridian, that is good news for me and all Floridians at this point. I sure don't wish any storm on anyone else but geez, does anyone not agree that we have had enough? The models all seem to be way more in agreement with each other...of course, since we are talking about a hurricane here I know thats all subject to change. By the way. I hope Jason is ok...I'm sure he is...anybody know?

meto
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:57 PM
Re: Jeanne breakin the law!

its amazing she looks so good. she could become stronger than thought before.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 09:59 PM
Re: Pensacola?

I got to take another look at the models, only looked at this mornings and afternoons but things will continue to change with the models, it's too far out as I learned from Scottsvb, a great poster.

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:02 PM
The Honorable Mr. Kelley...

>>> I hope Jason is ok...I'm sure he is...anybody know?

He shot me a PM yesterday after the twister nearly took out WJHG yesterday...haven't heard from him today, but that could be because there's no power...haven't heard from Coop either, but Andy1Tom did post today...Panama City Beach took a pretty hard hit.

I'm sure Jason will post when he can...for all we know, the storm induced his wife into labor and he could be the proud pappy of his third child right now.

If anyone out there knows, though, do let the boards know.


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:03 PM
Re: Pensacola?

Yeah I know but i did read somewhere, I think, that they are coming into agreement earlier than they did on the other storms I know 5 days out is still a toss up and I fully expect them to change...where I don't know though..my wishcast is out to sea... no hit anywhere...and some half decent surf.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:05 PM
Re: The Honorable Mr. Kelley...

Also, I'm sure he worked some long, hard hours last night.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:06 PM
Re: The Honorable Mr. Kelley...

I'm sure Jason has been doing nothing but work. Unless of course his wife went into labor.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:14 PM
Here's irresponsible........

Just caught Accuweather on Fox, on Greta's show. First, he may be right, but 5 days out, he EMPHATICALLY stated that it WILL hit the U.S. Later, he said it will be at least 96-110 mph.
Excuse me, but 5 days out, no one knows for sure. I don't remember his name, but after that report I think I should refer to them as Hypeuweather.
Again, it may be right, but to have an arrow pointing to Fla, saying it WILL hit at at least 96-110 is irresponsible. If he is right, that doesn't make them great forecasters. They took a shot, and got lucky.
To make it worse, this report started by Greta stating something like "Major hurricane Jeanne".
My advice to everyone.....turn of the tv's, check out the NHC, TWC, or your local NWS. I hope the ratings they got were worth it.

Now I am done venting, but ................forget it.
And, when was the last time you saw a Vulcan this upset?
i know how you feel (or don't feel?l, but jeanne does have event written all over it. i'm going to wait until tomorrow night or saturday (once it clears hispaniola/ivan track becomes more definite) before nailing my theses on the church door.. but i'm thinking the same thing. -HF


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:14 PM
Re: Pensacola?

Just saw the models, nogaps, eta, gfs etc. anyway the overall pattern was interestinng to note that the remmants of Ivan will actually stall out and move eastward aganist the prevailing atmospheric flow. If the models are right then that SC area will be getting crazy amounts of rain. Anyway next week there will be a very strong trough into the west coming; digging down from the gulf of Alaska and a very strong canadian high, the amplitude of this trough and ridge are huge, Ivan is pratically backing away from this high, that's how strong it is. Everything in the Bahamas part of the tropics will slow down to a near halt. Keep a tab on the models everyone that can.

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:18 PM
Re: Here's irresponsible........

CSO Spock,

I think it's fair to say that the enitre state of Florida is on edge, forgetting the GOMers...Us guys up north ain't seen nothin'... Feel free to vent, and I agree with you BTW, but we've only just reached the peak of the season...

the season from hell...

That's it...I'm OFFICIALLY naming 2004 the SEASON FROM HELL..I'd start a poll, but I'm just too tired...

Kirk out


BillD
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:18 PM
Re: Here's irresponsible........

I stopped watching TV news several years ago because of the hype. If we are under a Hurricane Warning I will turn on Bryan Norcross, and he doesn't hype. Otherwise the only thing on my TV is SciFi channel, Food channel, occassionaly one of the Discovery channels, and some movies.

Bill


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:18 PM
Re: Here's irresponsible........

I'm glad you said that Mr. Spock because in my veiw your opinions have a great deal of credibility. Everyone on here should pay attention to what he just said. By the way, I just saw that same thing on Greta...she needs to just keep talking about the Scott Peterson case.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:20 PM
Re: Here's irresponsible........

Thank you, I do appreciate the support. I think I also just came home from a meeting a little wound up......did it show?

No...not at all..no one here is on edge or anything...


BillD
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:22 PM
NASA GOES site

Anybody know what is up with the NASA site? The sat pix are all messed up, just a few thin stripes of the picture for the last few hours. Sat pix are fine on the TPC site.

Bill


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:25 PM
Re: Here's irresponsible........

Well, as everyone knows who have read my posts on here, you have a kindred spirit with me on this kind of stuff. It totally gets me so upset. I will never think it is anything less than completely irresponsible...especially on national tv!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:27 PM
Re: Here's irresponsible........

I just wanted to say, personally I have only 2 sources I feel are reliable for my hurricane info, this board, and Dr Steve Lyons. That being said,the info I have read here has really helped me deal with Hurricane Frances.I'm a newbie to these monsters so didn't know anything about them. I just moved here a year ago, so thanks to all of you for sharing your knowledge and info

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:30 PM
CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

>>> I just wanted to say, personally I have only 2 sources I feel are reliable for my hurricane info, this board, and Dr Steve Lyons.

(Cringing)...Y'all who know me know how I feel about the "great" Dr. Lyons.

I think you should stick with NHC...then CFHC...then Dr. Lyons...in that order


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:33 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

I really haven't seen his expertise because he just tells you where it's going not what's causing it to get there, the only important thing to me besides the landfall point.

Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:35 PM
1030 or so Atlanta Update

Well sports fans......

Georgia Power reports 300,000 out of power, 230,000 in metro Atlanta...

MAJOR flooding is occuring in Alpharetta and North Atlanta along the banks of the Peachtree Creek. Record flooding is occuring with the creek at 21.4 feet with the previous record being 21.06 feet being in March of 1990...

Pretty much every county in North and Central Georgia is under a Flood or Flash flood warning...

Road flooding is very prevalant around the airport as well as in other areas around the city.....

Tress have fallen throughout the area, just a few blocks from my house in Midtown, 3 trees fell and hit three cars on Piedmont Ave, entrapping one person....

Reports of tornadoes in Northeast Georgia along I-85, with the tornado taking out a GDOT Welcome Center/Rest area

Pretty much every school system is out tomorrow in Metro Atlanta....

Whew...anyone got a 7&7?
yepper, getting to see how good a job the civil engineers who designed all that urban sprawl around atlanta did in planning for events such as this. take it to the next step.. consider the hill country where orographic forcing is cranking the rain totals up even higher. asheville, knoxville.. it only gets better! ground control to major tom.. something has gone wrong. -HF


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:38 PM
The Weather Channel

Did anyone see The Weather Channel 2 month IR loop of all the storms from Alex to the present? It was a loop from the end of July until today. Pretty cool. I wonder how long that would take to load on dialup? LOL

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:40 PM
Re: The Weather Channel

I hope they re-show it, because they are awesome loops. It really puts into perspective the big picture.

DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:41 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

THanks LI Phil, I'will say CFHC is my first source and I difinitely do listen very carefully to what the NHC says. If I am anywhere in the cone,my shutters are up

LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:42 PM
Re: The Weather Channel

RE: TWC storm loop

Yeah, didn't want to mention it bc didn't want to give the props, but it was indeed very cool...they actually did TWO..one showing everything on a looping satellite, and a second one breaking each storm down...and the best part was, no Steve Lyons!


BillD
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:42 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Lyons is not John Hope, but he holds his own. It is not his fault that TWC has deteriorated to the state it is in now.

Bill


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:42 PM
Re: The Weather Channel

Karl is born.

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:42 PM
Attachment
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Not sure if this is funny...

ok yeah its pretty funny...

see attached


troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:46 PM
jeanne

I really hope Jeanne curves out in the Atlantic. She can park just south of Bermuda if she wants. Florida hasnt had a nice clean hurricane swell this season...
Plus I think Florida has used up it's Hurricane minutes a long time ago...

ricisurfs..I sent you a pm


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:46 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Quote:

>>> I just wanted to say, personally I have only 2 sources I feel are reliable for my hurricane info, this board, and Dr Steve Lyons.

(Cringing)...Y'all who know me know how I feel about the "great" Dr. Lyons.

I think you should stick with NHC...then CFHC...then Dr. Lyons...in that order




Just came online, but I totally agree. I think Max Mayfield has done a great job trying to keep the hype down. He's no Neil Frank, but he's better than Bob Burpee. Steve Lyons is ok. I don't think he brings much to the table other than repeating what he has heard elsewhere. He doesn't hype which is a good thing.


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:46 PM
Re: Here's irresponsible........

Debbie, i think you are one good reason of many to back up what Mr. Spock just said, whose views I also share on this matter. You are new to this whole hurricane thing and you are trying to learn because you understand, I'm sure, the devastating effect one of these storms can have on you and your family. if you don't learn to understand what is really going on and find sources that you can really trust than you're bound to believe anything that you might hear about these storms and where they are going...especially national networks that are trying to hype it up. Let me just say I know theAccuweather guys know way more than I could ever hope to know about all of this but don't you think they have a responsibilty to the people who might be directly affected by these storms...especially to the ones like Debbie who are new to it and are trying to learn and understand about them? I've lived in Florida since I was 6 years old and I've learn to deal with hurricanes every season but it's still no fun when one is hanging out in your backyard and you don't know where its going to go. It scares even a seasoned veteran like myself so I can imagine what it does to someone who is first experiencing it.Why needlessly scare people for the sake of a good news story. I know some won't agree with me but I'm sick of being in the path of every storm this year and i don't need some hyped up weather forecaster shouting that yet another one is coming at me Ok, I'l get off my soapbox now....I promise.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:48 PM
TD IVAN

We need to come up with a new term. Check out the yellow cone for TD Ivan, it's not a cone at all, it's a circle. Let's call it a roundabout. Any other suggestions?

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:49 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Quote:

Lyons is not John Hope, but he holds his own. It is not his fault that TWC has deteriorated to the state it is in now.

Bill




That may be true and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
I just miss the live cut ins to the NHC in Miami with the updated info.
If the trend continues, every media outlet will have it's own "expert" on staff and at the end of the day I think there needs to be a standard like the NHC. If others like Accuweather want to give a different path of forecast for the storm they should be free to do so but IMO, should reference the NHC's path as a reference.
That won't happen....

Things I learned tonight, Larry King is not a weatherman.....


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:50 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Bill, I couldn't agree with you more. I too think TWC has become way to commercialized. Their promos, "we keep you ahead of the storm", cool promo, but that is why they are The WX Channel. We expect them to keep us ahead of the storm. I'm not cool at all with them putting mets and other personnel into storm conditions. Somebody is going to get hurt, or worse. It may be a live shot too. Unless they are running a "janet jackson" delay on their feeds, and it doesn't look like they are.
The Year From Hell, thanks Phil, may be the last year to see a live shot in storm conditions. If you keep playing with mother nature, she'll return the favor, and she plays hardball!


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:51 PM
Re: TD IVAN

I'm just waiting to see if Ivan loops the loop. Have not had on yet this year that I can recall.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:53 PM
Re: TD IVAN

From the last Ivan discussion:
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/12. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN WILL GRADUALLY CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD...AND DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT... A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WHICH WILL ACT TO BLOCK IVAN AND TURN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

SINCE THE REMNANT IVAN CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT...AT LEAST IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
A MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS LIKELY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:53 PM
Re: Here's irresponsible........

Quote:

Debbie, i think you are one good reason of many to back up what Mr. Spock just said, whose views I also share on this mattter. You are new to this whole hurricane thing and you are trying to learn because you understand, I'm sure, the devastating effect one of these storms can have on you and your family. if you don't learn to understand what is really going on and find sources that you can really trust than you're bound to believe anything that you might hear about these storms and where they are going...especially national networks that are trying to hype it up. Let me just say I know theAccuweather guys know way more than I could ever hope to know about all of this but don't you think they have a responsibilty to the people who might be directly affected by these storms...especially to the ones like Debbie who are new to it and are trying to learn and understand about them? I've lived in Florida since I was 6 years old and I've learn to deal with hurricanes every season but it's still no fun when one is hanging out in your backyard and you don't know where its going to go. It scares even a seasoned veteran like myself so I can imagine what it does to someone who is first experiencing it.Why needlessly scare people for the sake of a good news story. I know some won't agree with me but I'm sick of being in the path of every storm this year and i don't need some hyped up weather forecaster shouting that yet another one is coming at me Ok, I'l get off my soapbox now....I promise.




Amen Richi. Living in S FL I am so sick of the news drops of "New storm forms in the Atlantic. It's potential effect on S FL at 11."

Double overhead and glass


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:53 PM
Re: The Honorable Mr. Kelley...

I have been a long time lurker here...this board is so informative, I just want to thank you all for your insight, thoughts and all the help you give those of us without even knowing you are doing it!!
Now to the question on hand. I live in PC, and I can tell you Jason did the new tonight at 5 and yes he has been VERY busy. What he and his partner Greg did for all of us here yesterday and last night cannot be put into words. They kept us going and safe. Power had gone out, even the NOA weather radio was OUT...they were the only station broadcasting, tracking the tornadoes and letting us know exactly where they were and where they were tracking to...it was amazing. Jason and Greg deserve a big THANK YOU and much more from all of us here in the Panhandle, they kept us going.
So from one Bay County citizen to Jason...
YOU WERE A LIFESAVER AND GODBLESS YOU !!!


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:53 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

"If others like Accuweather want to give a different path of forecast for the storm they should be free to do so but IMO should reference the NHC's path as reference"
Totally true!


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:54 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

>>>> Things I learned tonight, Larry King is not a weatherman.....

You guys trying to keep my sleep depravation going? ROFLMFAO.

Can we put Steve Lyons in that category yet?


DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:55 PM
Re: Here's irresponsible........

richisurfs, this site has been my salvation so much in the past weeks. I am grateful to you all and eager to learn more from people who have an understanding of what is happening. As for Dr lyons if all he told me is this is where it will land, it was important info to me and I took heed. With that said, I just couldn't deal with some of the news media that had me scared out of my wits. I was prepared for the storm as well as the aftermath thanks to the great info I learned from you wonderful people here. Again thanks to all

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:55 PM
Re: The Honorable Mr. Kelley...

Jason is AWESOME!!! Whenever I refer to the "media" I am never refering to him...He's a cut above!

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:55 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Well, reading between the lines on the 11:00PM discussion. I do not see where they have a strong conviction on the forecast, other then it might get stronger. Guess it is just a wait and see how the ridge behaves. My plywood stays up through this weekend.

DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:57 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Let's just put Dr lyons to rest. LOL

Debbie, you don't know how double entrendre-funny that post is...ROFLMFAO


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 10:58 PM
Re: TD IVAN

Check out the models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html

They go all the way to Kansas City in circles. LI Phil, it looks like NY drivers on the LIE.

Nah, just the 16 year olds from Deer park about to get their licenses...sorry...I HAD TO


BillD
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:02 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

During Frances each of the local stations (NBC, CBS, ABC and FOX) each had 2 or 3 reporters each out in the field along the coast, in the wind, with debris flying by them, trees falling and water rising. They were all crazy. The fact that the 10 or 12 of them and their crews escaped injury is amazing. There was one shot of a woman reporter hanging on to a stop sign out in the middle of an intersection hanging on for her life, when a major band came through and the wind picked up unexepectedly, she fell to the gournd and hugged the base of the sign. I don't know how the cameraman didn't blow away. One little 6" piece of metal siding, a coconut or even a tree limb could have taken either of them out in a second. This was all live. I don't get it.

Bill


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:03 PM
Time to dream of fish spinners!

Time for me to head to bed. Hope to wake up to find out about a bunch of fish spinners. Maybe by this time tomorrow night, Jeanne might seem a little clearer.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:03 PM
Re: TD IVAN

Well at least the models agree on Ivan for a change. A 180 degree turn over land is not unheard of, but rare.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:05 PM
Re: TD IVAN

If Pasch doesnt improve his forcasting skills,,Im going to apply at the NHC and personally tell him," I'M REPLACING YOU!!!"

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:05 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Quote:

During Frances each of the local stations (NBC, CBS, ABC and FOX) each had 2 or 3 reporters each out in the field along the coast, in the wind, with debris flying by them, trees falling and water rising. They were all crazy. The fact that the 10 or 12 of them and their crews escaped injury is amazing. There was one shot of a woman reporter hanging on to a stop sign out in the middle of an intersection hanging on for her life, when a major band came through and the wind picked up unexepectedly, she fell to the gournd and hugged the base of the sign. I don't know how the cameraman didn't blow away. One little 6" piece of metal siding, a coconut or even a tree limb could have taken either of them out in a second. This was all live. I don't get it.

Bill




Saw that Bill. She was ridiculous. She then got hit by a leaf which by the next day was changed to a piece of roof. Network must have thought the leaf was too wimpy.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:09 PM
Re: TD IVAN

What is keeping Jeanne together? I thought mountains and Islands were supposed to be discouraging and dismantling to storms. Jeanne has been huggin Hispanolia all day and she still looks like a viable storm. Are they seeding the atmosphere with the antithesis to dynagel? I think they may be Storm seeding to grow hurricanes!!!( just kidding but a part of me wonders, sitting here thinking about another weekend of hurricane tracking into Florida SE Coast.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:09 PM
Re: Karl is here. yuk!

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FRAM SAB. A 16/1950Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SOME 25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS...WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN-CONTAMINATED 40-KT WINDS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY BEING UPGRADED TO 35-KT TROPICAL STORM KARL
editor's note. Fram has NOT purchased SAB


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:10 PM
Jeanne

I think we will have to watch the intensity on Jeanne. She has spent most of the last 24 hours crossing the entire length of Puerto Rico and half the length of the Dominican Republic and has hardly even weakened. What does that mean when she finally finds the water?

BillD
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:15 PM
Re: TD IVAN

The fact that Jeanne's center has mostly stayed over water, or has not been away from water long. Plus there is just something about this storm that isn't giving up.

Bill


mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:16 PM
earthquake vs hurricane

I was in an earthquake once whilst ice skating in a big tin rink in Japan years ago. Everyone ran out of the building and I landed on my a%% in the center of the rink and had to wait it out. I think I prefer the earthquake in that there is no anticipation and it is over quick. Though it is weird watching the floor move in waves...

I am so exhausted this season and have gone from dread to, "come on baby, do your worst" as I am more prepared than I ever have been after the past two. A kind of defiant mindset. Perhaps it is a coping mechanism...

I am glad Jason is ok. I was worried. I hope Rick is ok too. My parents lost part of their dock but the house is intact on the gulf in MS.

I saw Larry King tonight and one of the guests said that there had been previous hurricanes off the coast of LA in the distant past.
This surprised me.

Helen


Mooshie-SC
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:16 PM
Re: South Carolina ouf of the woods?

Our local meteorologist said that most likely Jeanne would make a Georgia/North Florida landfall. What do you guys think the chances of Jeanne getting up to South Carolina before making that western turn?

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:18 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

I saw that too. In a meager attempt to defend the woman though she admitted that she had been stupid. She is normally a sports reporter and this was her first time covering a hurricane.

I doubt she will do it again.

Unless she was the reporter that later stood outside of a hotel who's sliding glass doors were about to fly off. One floor above there was already a big hole where she said they just watched a mattress and other things come flying out. She just stood there...right below, waiting to catch it all on film.

If that was her then I humbly retract the first part of this post.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:21 PM
Re: earthquake vs hurricane

Quote:

I was in an earthquake once whilst ice skating in a big tin rink in Japan years ago. Everyone ran out of the building and I landed on my a%% in the center of the rink and had to wait it out. I think I prefer the earthquake in that there is no anticipation and it is over quick. Though it is weird watching the floor move in waves...

I am so exhausted this season and have gone from dread to, "come on baby, do your worst" as I am more prepared than I ever have been after the past two. A kind of defiant mindset. Perhaps it is a coping mechanism...

I am glad Jason is ok. I was worried. I hope Rick is ok too. My parents lost part of their dock but the house is intact on the gulf in MS.

I saw Larry King tonight and one of the guests said that there had been previous hurricanes off the coast of LA in the distant past.
This surprised me.

Helen




Helen

I may have to disagree with you. I've lived in S FL since 72 but I have also been through 2 small quakes in the Bay area. Earthquakes scare the S%^& out of me. You can't prepare, and they can strike any time. Canes usually occur only a few months out of the year, and you know when they are coming and most importantly, you can leave.


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:24 PM
Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Take this ...

and multiply it by 10 more hours, and that is what happened in our area yesterday (yes, that is my voice narrating everything)...


Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:24 PM
Re: South Carolina ouf of the woods?

The weather reporters out in the field are ridiculous, honestly. It's not like by now the public hasn't seen a hurricane, doesn't know what they are like. Reminds me all too much of the movie "Day After Tomorrow" where the newsman buys it to the flying billboard sign from the tornado. The reporter that almost ate the palm tree in the head in Orlando is a classic example. Someone here on the boards said it landed 5 feet behind him. It didn't. The fronds actually smacked him in the head on the way down. If the trunk had landed, say, at 15 degrees to the base rather than 20 degrees, he quite likely would have been killed on [semi] live TV. Unconscienable.

Why do I keep getting this itchy feeling that the one storm we should next be watching isn't Jeanne, but future "L" storm...like we've noticed before, excepting Bonnie, it's been Charley --- xxx --- xxx --- Frances --- xxx --- xxx --- Ivan. With Karl forming and going out the sea (most likely), I can just see Jeanne recurving to the Atlantic to keep the pattern going, and get ready for "L"....

Would have normally just laughed it off as superstition, but in this year of weird storms, gotta go with it.


erauwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:26 PM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Wow ... impressive video!!!

BillD
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:28 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Not blaming the reporter at all, a little later when they got back to her you could tell she was really shaken by the experience.. I blame the stations, they should not be asking their reporters to go out there and risk their lives like that. Earlier that day Jeb Bush in one of his public statements made a point of saying that having reporters out there in the worst of it was a bad idea (I'm paraphrasing, he used stronger language, if I remember right it included the word "stupid").

Bill


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:29 PM
Re: Jeanne

From the 11pm discussion of Jeanne

Look at the 72 hour mark seeing that Ft. Lauderdale is 26N 80w Can someone tell me how far away that really is?


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.4N 69.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 70.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 72.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 73.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 23.6N 74.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 26.5N 76.9W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 29.5N 79.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 85 KT


SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:32 PM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Quote:

Take this ...

and multiply it by 10 more hours, and that is what happened in our area yesterday (yes, that is my voice narrating everything)...




You are the man! We were so worried for you and your wife and of course, all your viewers. Thanks for keeping all those folks safe and informed.


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:33 PM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Hey Jason...

Didn't even look at your day yesterday...

It just shows you how much you mean (and are meant) to these boards to be posting today...

Thank GOD you are alive...I know she has bigger plans for you...

I'm think in 2-3 years, Jim Cantore will say, "We now go to our resident meterologist Jason Kelley for our tropical update".

If you'd even deign to work for them.

Who lost a TON of respect for them this season?


Yeah, I'm trying to insite the rabble, but I beileve it to be true?


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:37 PM
Re: South Carolina ouf of the woods?

I just saw the 11pm forecast by Orlando Channel 9's Tom Terry. I think he's the best in the area. He is pretty much in agreement with the NHC's projected path of Jeanne at this point. And he showed all the models coming into agreement , more or less, keeping Ivan's path offshore from Florida. He pointed out that even the GFDL's track, which was the most western track, moved right and is more in agreement with the others now. 140 miles offshore of Melbourne on Monday with 100 mph winds. This guy is like our version of Jason Kelley down here. I trust him. He said lets just hope the models hold out so he acknowledges that nothing is written in stone at this point. The bottom line for me is I'm going to bed tonight believing, at this point, in the scenario that the NHC has laid out so far. Tomorrow is another day and I'll wake up and deal with Jeanne again then amongst other things. I think if anyone has any questions about the direction of Jeanne at this point, then they ought to do the same. Good night everyone...its been a great discussion today...I usually don't get to stay on this long. Sleep tight cuz I will!

mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:37 PM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Wow Jason! What great film and great work too!
You must be exhausted.
Helen


BillD
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:38 PM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Jason,

Wow, incredible video, and good narration given the circumstances, I'm not sure I could get a coherent word out in a situation like that. We're all glad you're OK, and expect you are looking forward to some much needed rest.

Bill


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:41 PM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

I am happy it was no worse that it was....I am about to lay down and sleep for the first time since I work up at 5 Wednesday morning....full recaps later, including digital pics of what happened here...

And by the way, Jenna isn't here yet...my wife didn't go into labor...


Mooshie-SC
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:42 PM
Re: South Carolina ouf of the woods?

Thanks for the info. This hurricane just has me a little worried because my parents have gone out of town for 2 weeks and I'm here holding down the fort alone. The last thing I need is a hurricane.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:43 PM
Re: South Carolina ouf of the woods?

Jason, I am glad to hear you are ok, and I hope your wife is as well.
Just for kicks, I decided to look at what the upper air pattern was for Isabel. Jeanne is in a different location, but what made me look, is I remember a strong high at the surface that really enhanced our winds (in NJ). Another strong high is expected to be in the general area this time. The Vulcan in me thought, "If the surface high is in the same place, maybe the upper level pattern is similar". The placement of the Bermuda high is different, but in both cases, there was (this time, expected to be) a trough in the Plains states. The analog is far from perfect, but my point is, maybe we need to watch how and where the 588 dm high is located, and if it strengthens. Again, just for kicks. Of course, the obvious difference is that Jeanne will not be in the same area as Isabel. I am looking at this from a steering-current point of view.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20030918.html
GFS 7 day 500 mb map (errors may exceed a continent or two)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_500168192_m.shtml


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:47 PM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Holy F---ing S--t. Just watched the JK vid...

Multiply that by 10 hours? Ummm...no thank you.

Sure you don't wanna anchor the local news up hrere?

Good god, Jason....BTW, how's your wife...


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:49 PM
Re: South Carolina ouf of the woods?

Jason...You're the man!!! What an awesome clip.I saved it to show my family in FWB because they lost power at 5pm yesterday. Go get some well deserved rest! Goodnight all..again.

tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:51 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Quote:

During Frances each of the local stations (NBC, CBS, ABC and FOX) each had 2 or 3 reporters each out in the field along the coast, in the wind, with debris flying by them, trees falling and water rising. They were all crazy. The fact that the 10 or 12 of them and their crews escaped injury is amazing. There was one shot of a woman reporter hanging on to a stop sign out in the middle of an intersection hanging on for her life, when a major band came through and the wind picked up unexepectedly, she fell to the gournd and hugged the base of the sign. I don't know how the cameraman didn't blow away. One little 6" piece of metal siding, a coconut or even a tree limb could have taken either of them out in a second. This was all live. I don't get it.

Bill




My friend from Connecticut has a fresh view and his quote regarding Fox News' hurricane coverage was priceless.

"We're with fox news and we'll DIE to get you this story"

Yeah - who knows what the hell they were thinking, eh?


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:54 PM
lets go for another..

hang on kids!! jeanne has a bead drawn on the southeast coast. just as ivan got cranking while frances was still busy with florida and points north, jeanne is already threatening to be coming in sometime near the middle of next week (tue/wed). add to the mix another named system in karl, and yeah, there's a hell of a long post on the way.
ivan:
curving right, with more model tracks now more set on a sweeping anticyclonic loop across the interior southeast. still a solid rain shield northeast of the center, that will probably persist for a couple more days.. with the surface system likely to persist at least to monday. days of flooding on the way for the piedmont, cumberland plateau, and southern appalachians.
jeanne: the inner core has remained remarkably intact as it grazes along near the north coast of the dominican republic. may in fact be a minimal hurricane based upon structure. as it slowly trudges over the islands, extreme rainfall is the main story.. when it leaves late tomorrow the focus should shift to intensification. the storm is currently small and has a quicker spin-up/spin-down time.. could become a good bit stronger than forecast over the weekend. it should broaden a good bit over the open ocean as well. i'm fairly on with the nhc official track, though think it may terminally be to the left. not going to start specifying where i think the center will hit until it clears the island.. and starts hinting how much it will respond to the ivan weakness. going to throw in an unpleasant caveat that joe bastardi has already made mention of.. this should be a solid 2 or higher when it hits the u.s.
karl:
away east, progged unanimously to recurve. as with jeanne, think the intensity is conservative.. easily a major in the next two days. this should finally be the one.. a major hurricane in 2004 that doesn't affect the u.s. at some point in its life cycle.
others:
wave/surge line east of the lesser antilles (52w or so) has a minimal chance of organization.. not much convergence to go on right now.. upper conditions not bad though.
northern end of this wave axis associating with an upper trough/surface convergence and vorticity region in the central atlantic. as this nearly stationary TUTT type feature in the upper levels reorients over the weekend there's a minor chance something tries to develop in a diffluent zone, or with some of the low level vorticity present. minor chance.
wave near 20w following karl.. globals like it, but proximity to karl doesn't favor it. will watch, but expect little.
gulf/caribbean.. little activity in the lower BOC and sw caribbean associated with itcz/tropical wave action.. in the deadened state of the low level easterlies persistent features will have to be watched, but none appearing as so right now.
bottom line is that ivan is still a huge flooding threat (tornadoes are nothing to joke about either).. jeanne is a potentially significant threat to ga/sc/east coast of fl... karl is an open atlantic system, and nothing else is on the table at this moment.
decent chance we get the other two systems bill gray called for prior to september's close, but think the late season may truncate a bit (mjo favorable here, but the deadened west pacific foretells of a quieter early october.. more than likely).
HF 0350z17september


cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:56 PM
Re: TD IVAN

Okay, somebody care to explain to me the steering forces that would cause Ivan turn back on itself?!?!? :?:

And what is a TUTT?


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:59 PM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

The field reporters get the ole adrenalin rush when the winds and rain pick up and put that in combination of the viewers who want to see the wind blow and are secretly hoping the reporter gets blown into the next county by the wind and well, you have the reason why it won't change.
My only question is where is Geraldo and why wasn't he out in the 130mph winds?
LOL
It does get a bit ridiculous. I even saw two different networks shooting from the same location.
You have to have the proverbial palm blowing in the backround or else ........

JASON !! Glad you're ok......hope you get some sleep and glad ur family is fine..........


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 17 2004 12:07 AM
Re: Jeanne

Terra, the different steering levels note the bounds on the flow pattern for a particular internsity threshold. So, when it says 400mb-850mb, it means that they are taking the average of the winds in the level of the atmosphere between 850mb (roughly 1500m above the surface) and 400mb (roughly 8000m above the surface). The same holds true for the different levels, just with different bounds.

Different levels are selected for various storm intensities because stronger storms tend to be deeper, meaning that their circulations extend higher up in the atmosphere. Thus, either a larger difference between the bounds (like 250-850) or overall higher (in the atmosphere) values of the bounds, such as 200-700, are better indicators for these stronger storms, more often steered by mid- and upper-level troughs and ridges. Conversely, weaker systems tend to be steered more by the low level flow, so regimes like the 700-850mb or 450-850mb layer that take in to account low and mid level flow are more useful.

Of course, as with any product, the values are a little arbitrary and not all storms will fit perfectly within one regime. And, the winds will change over time, so it is not an end-all tool for predicting storm motion. But, one of the NHC's favorite ways to depict storm motion after the fact -- and perhaps during the storm, though I'm not certain of this -- is to take a mean 1000mb-100mb wind as the steering flow. Essentially, you capture everything from the surface to the top of the troposphere (the region in which we live) with this. It is attempts to capture portions of this that have also been proven useful in tracking storms, such as the products you linked to (which I really like myself).


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 17 2004 12:11 AM
YAY!

Folks...

Gonna pack it in for this evening (a collective YEAH is heard)

HF is now monitoring you...

Today was a lot of fun combined with a lot of sorrow...not sure they mix well but what the hey...now you know how I've decided to let this moderator status lie....

Everyone feel free to emote if they need...use the PM feature for truly personal accounts...

let god take care of the rest...she's got my cell phone number, why hasn't she called....

To all those who are still truly and reallly freaking out over this season or Ivan...PM me...we'll square it away..

Cheers...

Phil


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 17 2004 12:14 AM
Lesson Learned - get a generator..

Earlier post asked about Javlin.... he's fine, came over my house late this morning... he had no damage....

I still have no power, 32 hours and counting.... about seven of us on the front beach are the only ones, transformer probably bad, and its on a pole in my back yard..... my neighbor owns an RV dealership and we just parked about a 50 footer in my front yard, using the generator to supply electricity to both houses.... so at least I now have some power for essentials...

I was very prepared for this storm, but the one thing I really learned is that I need to get a generator, and will buy one as soon as they become available.... you don't even need to get hurricane force winds and you still might be out of power for days....

anyone have a recommendation for a good generator (name brand and size) I could buy please send it to me via the CFHC message system...

thanks


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 17 2004 12:20 AM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Jason -- wow. I imagine you all had a lot more wind and rain from the storm & feeder bands than we did here in Tallahassee, but those cells that kept coming in off of the water -- almost every single one had some rotation with it, it seemed, and there is now a swath of tornadoes across North Florida from Panama City to Tallahassee. I can only imagine what it is like to be on the air with one of these; it was bad enough over the early morning hours talking to 4 different people about the tornado threat here in Tallahassee.

Hope all is well on your end beyond that, though.


Mooshie-SC
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 17 2004 12:20 AM
Re: Lesson Learned - get a generator..

What you need is the Binford Tools Megawatt XL9000 8 Cylinder 10,000 RPM 500 cubic cm. gasoline generator.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 17 2004 12:22 AM
Re: Jeanne

Kent -- that location is about 30 miles north and 180 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale, all in an approximate sense. That places the center, as the crow flies, 182 or so miles from Ft. Lauderdale.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 17 2004 12:32 AM
Re: TD IVAN

If the steering flow weakens and/or changes -- such as the trough currently sending Ivan to the NE lifts out, leaving the storm behind to slow down and a ridge to build in from the north to shunt it towards the west -- you can see that sort of pattern evolve.

Interesting to note that a few of the models want to interact the remnants of Ivan with Jeanne in 4-6 days. We'll see if that happens, sort of merging together or whatnot.

I think I'm going to take a break from the prediction business for awhile...these storms this year have proven one thing -- they're really, really tough to predict. Just one look at how Jeanne has fared over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola confirms that -- stronger storms have been ripped apart by those two islands.

TUTT is the acronym for tropical upper-tropospheric trough. In general, it stretches across the western tropical/subtropical Atlantic with a few upper-level low centers (TUTT cells) along its path. This map -- http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap2img/fig215.jpg -- shows you the climatological position of the TUTT in July over the N. Atlantic to be somewhere south of Bermuda. The TUTT is a semi-permanent feature that tends to both enhance and deflate tropical activity, depending on its strength and location as well as other external influences on tropical cyclone development.

More information on the TUTT and upper-level troughs in the tropics in general can be found here: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap2/se205.htm


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Sep 17 2004 12:34 AM
new thread

Mike and John have personal business to take care of this weekend, so site management is more of a stormcooper/LIphil/moi affair for the near future. ed is still in recovery mode from frances...
anyhow, new thread, so send your comments over thataway.. don't want this one to grow to 20 pages or anything. thanks.
HF 0431z17september


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 17 2004 12:38 AM
One last one...

Turning in for the night here as well, thankfully with power. Came home to a nice surprise earlier in that the power was restored a full day before they expected it, which is always good. The ice in the freezer and fridge didn't even have time to melt, but I'm certainly glad I had the materials and losses were avoided. I can only hope and pray that everyone to the west made it out alright and that this is the last storm we'll have to deal with as a community this year. Unfortunately, Jeanne may have other designs on that, but this is just getting ridiculous...and we've only gone 6 weeks into the season.

Ivan certainly served up some humble pie on my end and will be a learning experience for all of the forecasters and models involved. Whether the models were too far right and needed to shift left early in its life or too far left and needed to shift right late in its life, the overall errors with this storm are going to be rather large...even in intensity. The NHC did the best they could and proved once again why they are the experts, pinning down a large location that could be affected by the storm with enough time to get prepared as well as pinpointing a region that might come under the gun -- the Mobile/Pensacola area -- a couple of days in advance. They and all other forecasters will always be limited by the data we have available, whether that is in the form of models, observations, or something else entirely, but things are gradually improving. This storm humbled many a forecaster and proved how two competent, respected forecasters can come up with entirely different scenarios as to what will happen and have both come within a fraction of being right...yet both end up wrong.

Best of luck to everyone in the path of this beast, and take care all.


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 17 2004 12:40 AM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

Abso-effing-lutely incredible video there. Glad to hear everybody at the station made it through.

Wow.


Takingforever
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 17 2004 10:25 AM
Re: CFHC vs. Steve Lyons...

speaking of TWC:

Quote:

Ivan Tops Floyd for Weather Channel

The Weather Channel posted a 1.9 Nielsen Media Research total-day (5 a.m.-2 a.m.) household rating for its coverage of Hurricane Ivan Wednesday, equaling more than 1.6 million homes.

TWC’s Ivan coverage set a total-day record for the network, besting the 1.7 it earned Sept. 14, 1999, during Hurricane Floyd.

The network reached its peak from 9:30 p.m.-9:45 p.m. with a 3.6 rating, or more than 3.1 million households.




Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 17 2004 11:16 AM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Quote:

Take this ...

and multiply it by 10 more hours, and that is what happened in our area yesterday (yes, that is my voice narrating everything)...


Jason,
Living in Orlando as I do, I have never seen you 'in action' on TV, but I have read your posts and HIGHLY respect your opinion. I'm sorry that you and your neighbors had to endure Ivan and its effects and I am truly pleased to see that you personally, and I hope all of your family and neighbors came through this relatively intact and uninjured. Having just gone through two similar experiences here (magnified by living in a trailer) and having to evacuate twice and prepare for a third (and possibly a fourth), we share common experiences that will bind us even closer together in the future. I give thanks that you are OK and when you rest up and recover from the trauma, that you will stop by this forum often and continue to contribute your knowledge and opinions.

I am sure that the other members of this site and many of its' visitors will feel much the same as I do when I say: Thanks and we're grateful you were spared to remain our friend.


Ocala
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:37 AM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Trying to look at this video. Getting a codec error. Anyone know how to fix that?

Ricreig
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:42 AM
Re: Want to see what my day was like yesterday....

Quote:

Trying to look at this video. Getting a codec error. Anyone know how to fix that?


On my system, I am unable to establish a connection to the server per the MS media viewer, but on a hunch, I downloaded the *.wmv file to my desktop and dragged it to the viewer and voila, it worked. Maybe that is a solution for you. It is worth downloading and locating a codec because the link may be broken or taken off-line in the future and you won't be able to get a copy from there.


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