HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:29 AM
Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Two active systems in the basin, one new invest, and an extratropical Ivan are the features of interest this morning. Jeanne is of course the one of greatest interest, as though there is significant doubt as to it's track, it still poses a looming threat to the east coast. Modeling went out to pasture with Jeanne yesterday, taking it all over the place, looping it around east of the Bahamas. That normally means the storm will move slowly and erratically... which is just what Jeanne needs to reorganize after it's fistfight with Hispaniola. The official forecast is still suggestive of an eventual impact in the United States... later on. Jeanne has shown a history of staying south and west of its forecast track, so if I was in Florida, up to South Carolina.. I'd not write Jeanne off.
Ivan gets next mention, even though the latest HPC advisory has declared it extratropical. Formerly formidable Ivan is now a ~1000mb elongated low centered around the middle Chesapeake Bay, moving eastward. Away north in Pennsylvania up to southwestern New England it's rainshield is still drenching folks.. but not to the tune of what was seen in the southern Appalachians. There is some indication that enough of Ivan's circulation will pivot offshore and be forced back down the Carolina coast to make a minor recovery.. this is just a scenario given by some of the models. Others shear Ivan's low out and degenerate the system east of Hatteras.
The strongest storm out there today is Karl, well on it's way to being a major hurricane. Karl poses no threat to land, but will provide us with one of those rarities of 2004, a fish spinner folks can ooh and aah over without feeling like they're egging on a killer.
Another invest is active between Karl and the Cape Verdes.. it has some development potential, but will likely never do much due to it's proximity to the deepening hurricane to it's west. Another impressive wave is emerging off the coast this morning.
There is nothing urgent in the tropics this morning, so check back from time to time during the weekend, but do enjoy the beautiful early fall weather behind Ivan (if you're not still getting rained on) and of course the college games today.
-HF

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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:42 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Thanks for the New Thread Hank Frank. Anyway, we have many waves in the tropics nothing is of dire need to talk about. Model guidance suggests that Jeanne will do a flip, which is almost impossible to map out in a 5 day forecast map. This has to be by far the most difficult landfalling hurricane's that I've tracked. Karl is going to be a fish spinner not much to talk about there and the other storm is not going to be much in the near furture. I think everyone should take a break from hurricanes today watch some football, have a good time because by another week from now, we'll be in alert mode again. Have a great day everybody and may the best teams win!

Takingforever
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:43 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

"a fish spinner folks can ooh and aah over without feeling like they're egging on a killer."

But what about the fish?


On Jeanne, one thing the NHC is going against is the "Debbie" end and calling this storm a fighter(Thanks if Ivan stays on course to the NC).

Quote:

SHOULD JEANNE TURN MORE NORTHWARD IT COULD FIND ITSELF UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD KEEP JEANNE UNDER UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THUS IT WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG SYSTEM COULD MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT...A NOT UNREASONABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE FORECAST BELOW WOULD BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE...AS DEBBY DID IN THIS AREA FOUR YEARS AGO.




richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:43 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

One more thing before I head out today. Last night I purposely Watched CBS news and Dan Rather to see what their take on Ivan and jeanne would be. I know his record for theatrics so i had to see. Just for the record, I never watch those guys. Anyhow, Dan showed the track that the NHC had put out at like 5am or 11am going into SE coastline instead of the most recent 5 pm track that the NHC put out not showing that. Did they not have access to that 5pm projected path when their broadcast statred at 6:30pm? yeah, right. Did that suprise me? well, what do you think?. just more fuel to the fire of my belief that the national news networks don't have much credibilty when it comes to these storms. The most important thing is their big story rather than presenting what the facts are at a given time.

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:30 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

The 6:30 PM News is actually taped earlier.. So they may not have had access to the 5PM Forecast.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:45 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

6:30 newsw in eastern time zone is live...ditto to comments about credibility!

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:48 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

I just returned from looking at the visible loop on Jeanne. Don't take this as gospel but I am wondering if we won't come back at 5:00 pm to find Jeanne winding up to a formidable looking hurricane/strong tropical storm. There is something coming together on those loops that makes my short hairs rise on the back of my neck. I am not predicting a Florida landfall, just a surprise for those who come back at 5:00 pm( maybe)

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:51 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Continuing from the last thread:

DarthYankee,

Funny thing happened on the way to my synopsis of Joe B report making "zero zilch no" sense eh? Looked at the Goes 12 lately? I'll give you a hint - the 500mb UK Met today is doing the same thing it was yesterday. GFS has jumped on line with Ivan's remnants but hasn't caught onto Jeanne yet. Remember, if Joe's forecast verifies, it's not going to happen until late week. But maybe you can start to appreciate the magnitude of the strongest high pressure (maybe not in mb's but certainly in scope) of the season. Then again, maybe not. But I'd advise you to put the below link in motion:

Animate this link

richie,

I don't agree with either you and Spock on the second to last page of the prior thread. None of accuweather's stuff is written in stone, and that's hardly the way Joe presents himself on tv, his site or his column. You're simply mischaracterizing him.

This is utter bull**** because you're so hormoned out over Accuweather presenting something other than the official track. Joe said he believes it will hit the US and be off the Bahamas as a cat 2 or 3 after 5-6 days. If it doesn't verify, rest assured he will be the first one to tell you so and why. So unless you're paying your $14.95 a month, don't mischaracterize the truth to serve your own agenda:

I'll vent a little more on this subject myself. It seems to me, from what I've seen, that after their first "written in stone" forecast" doesn't verify then there is never an admittance that we were wrong here and here is an updated forecast of what we now believe will happen. It's like it's all just forgotten and they just move on with their new "written in stone" forecast. You see, in my opinion, if you are going to go out on a limb and predict something is going to happen with "absolute authority" then when you are wrong you ought to be able to humble yourself just a little and admit It. Besides, what is so wrong witth putting out an NHC projected path but then saying " Here, in our opinion, is what we believe it will do". Once again, I know what I saw and heard..."This storm WILL hit the US!"...right, Mr. Spock? The fact is...nodody knows.

That my friend is absolute b.s. and a complete mischaracterization. Nothing personal of course, but you obviously don't get the big picture.
---------------------------------------------------
Spock,

>>As far as JB, he also DIDN"T NEED TO say cat II or better in S. Fla. for Jeanne in the time frame he did.

That's what he believes. People accuse him of hyping and sensationalism. He likes the extreme stuff (as apparently so do we). But that was his opinion. I have not read today's post, but let me see...

He thinks it's cat 2 or 3 by Tuesday/Wed with all options open. Ivan's MLC should split south and southwest tonight bringing gales to the northern GA coast and end up in the NE Gulf by around Monday nigh (depending on what's left). The irony woul dbe something heading toward the West and Central Gulf (again, due to the pattern, similar to way Gaston was sniffed out 2 weeks before anything was there) that is neither Ivan nor Jeanne, but could be one or both.

I said last Thursday morning on S2K and posed a challenge in 3 different threads for any of the met gurus to figure out what is the most complex tropical situation we've seen in forever. Bastardi also acknowledges(ed) the same thing and presents his opinion as such.

Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:58 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Pardon me, I was not bashing JB....I like him as a forecaster, always betting for the long shot based on pattern recognition. I believe that Jeane will be a hurricane and with complicated pattern at hand, nobody from Miami to North Carolina should take their eyes off her, since she will get trapped underneath the ridge. I have been storm tracking for 40 years, and have never seen such a difficult pattern to forecast since the '60's. And the western caribbean will be heard from in the next 5 weeks....that's if the atlantic slows. Lots of tracking ahead....hope they don't impact anyone. Now to put my fence back up and cut up the trees!! Cheers!!

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:58 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Truthfully, I never pay get my weather information or news from national sources. That even includes, TWC now. Granted, I am an exception. I have seen enough of how news coverage works from all sides through personal experiences and close friends to know that the information is usually never very accurate. Locals are more accurate however, even then they are subject to the pressures of sensationalisim. I am a believer in gather differing opinions and making my own decision. However, I always defer to official sources when it gets down to crunch time.

If I can go after the cause rather then the effect here, NHC does have a problem with media presence. I hate to say this but Max Mayfield always seems to strike me as more of a government worker then a meteorologist. I think Ed Rappaport comes off with his explanations a little better. Just personal opinion. I think they need to work ontheir PR a bit. Heck, even adding bios to the TPC's web page would be nice. Is any of this improtant to the actual forecasting? No not at all. However,much to my chagrin, with todays media, image means as much as substance.

In all honesty, I miss Dr Bob Sheets and Dr Neil Frank. I thought they both did a very good job of getting the message out and the thinking behind them. That is what seems to be missing to me.


Ob Jeanne talk, I see the models starting to show some of what JB mentioned about the loop. Wait and see if any of this verifies. It ain't over until it's over and in this hurricane season. Even if it is over, it may not be over. Right, Ivan?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:00 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Well my forcast on how it cuts across florida is actually 6-12 hours before JB,, but since he posts his the following mornings, IM sure we thought about it around the same time. Couple nights ago I posted that I feel there was a better chance that Jeanne would move up to near 75-77W and near 29N. Most models then too her into the Carolinas but I said she might do a loop and head sw-wsw-w into florida between 27N and 28.5. I think it might be just a day or 2 later like Weds-Thurs but Im not going out of what I see happening unless the ridge doesnt stick out to the east to 70W. She is currently 1.5dg east of where I expected her from 5 days back. Not bad but not good cause she moved alittle slower then I saw. Anyways forecast is still on track but adjusted just east to near 29N and 71-72W before the loop and turn back to the wsw on Monday. I still feel also she will become a strong hurricane unless she somehow losses her circulation during the next 12 hrs.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:02 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

I ment turn on there,, I need to get back to login.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:03 PM
Jeanne's rollercoaster ride

This is Jeannes path that I just observed the GFDL saying, try and follow because it's very confusing. It first starts out with a NW motion followed by a more north motion to NNE motion for about 3 days, then it acclerates away from the Bahamas and then does a loop and comes back down to about the lat of South Florida. By the time it's there, the GFDL is indicating a moderate trough in the mid-west approaching the east coast. If this is a accurate forecast which I'm not to sure then this could be more of a Hatteras storm then a Florida storm. Hopefully Jeanne will make up her mind and it will be more clear, but for now I'm stuck in a rut.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:03 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

With all due respect, the segment on Greta's show was not defensible. The mistake I made is that I don't remember his name, and threw in JB's.
I stand by my opinion. you don't guarantee things, especially serious things, when the state is already scared.

This other forecaster said "it WILL hit South Fla, with AT LEAST 96-110 mph winds", and his time frame looks off too.


Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:15 PM
Re: Jeanne's rollercoaster ride

Could you let me know where you pulled your GFDL run and the run time.

Coop


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:16 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

LOOKS LIKE JEANNE LIKES THE BAHAMAS SO MUCH, SHE'S GOING BACK IN A FEW DAYS FOR A FOLLOW UP VISIT.... OUTSIDE OF THIS, LET'S FACE IT...IT'S A HURRICANE FOR THE FISH

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:16 PM
Re: Jeanne's rollercoaster ride

Accuweather but it costs money and you can't animate the time frames.

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:18 PM
Re: Jeanne's rollercoaster ride

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/


Try this one and see what you come up with.

Coop


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:22 PM
Re: Jeanne's rollercoaster ride

I must have a made a mistake there somewhere, or I'm looking at an old model run. Thanks I see where I made the mistake, I got the motion correct but the same Lat of Charleston is incorrect.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:27 PM
Re: Jeanne's rollercoaster ride

Interesting, possibility that Karl is what actually keeps Jeanne from coming back around. Would not mind seeing that happen one bit.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:34 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

I agree... the models for Jeanne continue to trend eastward with each run. The liklihood and severity of Ivan's potential influence on Jeanne's track wanes with every hour as Ivan's remnants continue to race NE at 20 mph.

Without a northerly turn, Ivan will still reemerge into the Atlantic, but it will be in the Philly/NY area as opposed to the Chesapeake Bay as originally predicted.

The models are changing constantly right now so there is no confidence in much of anything, except the trend for a general eastward shift of Jeanne's path with each new run.

The data does seem to support the potential for gaining strength over the next 12-24 hours, though...


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:38 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Not being an Accuweather subscriber myself, I'll certainly admit I'm not too qualified to comment on the services they provide. However I did read a spot in the paper today about just this, the private vs. government conflicts in forecasts. I can't recall if it was an AP release, if so it may have found its way in to some of your newspapers too.

Anyways, they showed three maps representing three forecast tracks yesterday, by both Accuweather and the NHC. The writer of the article seemed to boast about how Accuweather issues 7-day forecasts while the NHC does "only" five. Also, the Accuweather rep they interviewed boldly talked down about the NHC, claiming they always issue "conservative" forecasts, and are "reluctant to change their forecasts" if conditions change.

This appaled me, to say the least. First off, the Accuweather forecasts showed little change (a drift under 100 miles North on the FL coast) over the day, while the NHC started with a west hook, but had it curving east by the end of the day. This contradiction aside, I find it irresponsible for a meteorolgist to take pride in the fact that they make risky (synonyms of risky: insecure, high-risk, speculative) long-term forecasts about a storm that nobody can securely forecast yet.

Accuweather provides a paid service, and being a capitalist society there's nothing but nothing wrong with that. Talking down about one's competition is certainly normal, but in the case of the government issuing life-saving directives about hurricanes, I think that kind of childish competitiveness is grossly inappropriate in a situation like this.

I'm at work at the moment, if I find that article online I'll link to it, otherwise I'll post it up here when I get the chance.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:45 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Although this may be a sociological comment it bears repeating that the addiction to profit making has consequences of killing people when they are depending on a forecast to decide whether or not to evacuate. Until people begin to value people's lives above fame and fortune, we will all be left to making our own decisions and trusting nothing that comes with dollar signs. We all need to know a little meterology:
Come in out of the rain.
Shut the doors and windows when the wind blows.
Get a boat and ride if the water is over your head
Buy food that does not need a can opener unless you have a mechanical one.
Don't believe anyone who doesn't live within 5 miles of you that its raining unless you check for yourself.


COgal
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:51 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

What is the rotation on the SW side here?

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html


Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 12:58 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Interesting swirl on SW side could be low level center? Its quite small and has justed passed over Great Inagua island or island just north of Hati and western cuba. This could be the center but its hard to tell. If it is its moving west or WSW. This just adds to forecasting trouble with Jeanne. Then again it could just be a little mesoscale low or something?

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 01:10 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

I thought that was the Center of circulation for Jeanne. ! But, Now I am scratching my head wondering if I have been seeing things.

darthaggie
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 01:13 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Quote:

Continuing from the last thread:

DarthYankee,

Funny thing happened on the way to my synopsis of Joe B report making "zero zilch no" sense eh?




I stand by what I said. Go look in the water vapor loops, and look at that magnificent trough over Florida. The door into Florida is closed for the moment.

Come back in three days and we'll see what we'll see, but I see Jeanne swirling away to the north-northeast as a storm of small note.

(unless you're in Puerto Rico or Hispanola, in which case it is of bigger note)


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 01:21 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Maybe the LLC is trying to reform, that sometimes happens. This will put a damper on the models if that really is a new LLC forming, they'll have to be re-intalized. Oy vey.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 01:27 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Steve...I have no agenda.....Come on, do you understand we have been hit by two and we don't need a guy coming on national tv and saying that yet another one is coming into Florida when the NHC is NOT saying that? I know what I saw and heard and I have a total right to my opinions on it. I have no agenda at all. I just want the truth. i told all you guys out there who are big defenders of Accuweather that I have a right to my opinion on it. You can keep responding to me and defending this guy all you want but you are not going to change my mind. First, try having two of them run over you in a matter of weeks and then tell me how you feel when some guy gets on there and says with pretty close to absolute assurdity that another one is going to be running over you. I'm done arguing about it and I won't respond to it anymore. I know what I think and I don't have to pay $14.95 a month to think it.By the way, I "totally" understand the big picture. It has a "direct" effect on me.

COgal
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2004 01:38 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Is Jeanne's center of circulation
leaving the convection behind her?
If she hits Cuba will that be the end of her?


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 01:54 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

I'm not sure that is the center or not. Sure looks like it is a possibility that Jeanne hit the EJECT button.

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:00 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Looks like she did; the NHC says that it appears to be the center.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.public.html


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:03 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

LOL funny,, why did I see that happening a couple hours ago. ZZZZZZZZZZ I agree with NHC lets get recon in there to get a fix to see if there is a developing LLC near the midlevel low near 21.4N and72.2W. If not, then all things are off, even the N turn they expect with the swirl. I say they will find the swirl is indeed the center, the mid level low will eventually come down to the surface later by Sunday-Monday after drifting NNE. Then become better organzied during Monday then make the move SW then W Tuesday-thru Thurs and threaten florida later that day into Friday. By next weekend A strong trough will replace the strong ridge early this week over the eastern U.S. and drive anything that is in the eastern gulf N and NE.

Daytonaman
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:06 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

or did Jeanne just give birth?

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:06 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Still moving West.
Accuweather may get their storm thru the Fl straits after all.
But it may just be a slight twirling of wind with no clouds or rain with it.

This is one strange "storm" ???


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:10 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

With the way this season is going, both areas probably develop into storms. This storm is named wrong. Should be called Phil, as in Niekro. It is a new knuckleball every few hours.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:10 PM
Steve,

Twice, you have been highly critical of me, I don't think I deserved either one.
Did you forget the major props I gave JB for his O'Reilly interview?
Those who don't like JB did not criticize for that one though.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:11 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Hey guys, Im alive and well. Just got power back on at my dads work in Pensacola cause were so close to a hospital. Just to let you know that will be my last hurricane EVER. It was the most terrifying night of my life. The damage is extreme and I cant get to my house in Gulf Breeze cause all bridges are damaged. Iheard reports that a 35 foot wall of water is what took out the I-10 bridge and reports of 20 foot surge and 38 foot waves in the SOUND, not the gulf. The gulf had reported waves of near 45 feet. Its just horrible around here. Damage is EXTREME. I cant explain how the winds sounded. It was a loud deep roar for hours. Downtown is devastated. Large, 50+ year old trees, alot of 100+ year old trees are snapped. Roofs are gone its just bad. This place will never be the same. Im gonna hopefully get to Gulf Breeze tomorrow and see my house. Hope everyone is done complaining about slow seasons now. I personally wouldnt ever mind tracking another hurricane again. Well, Im gonna go and start picking up. Ya'll have a good one.

SoonerShawn
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:13 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

We have something here in Houston that you all don't... Dr. Neil Frank!!!! I'm so happy he is here!

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:14 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Jeanne
be sure to click the forecast points to see where the storm isnt going

Jeanne is looking more and more like a Debby in 2000 scenario--it is being sheared, and while expected to turn north, it is going west


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:23 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Droop, when you get time, please write up a detailed post on what it was like for you.
I can only imagine.

Keep us advised on what it is like up there as things continue.


Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:26 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Great to hear you and yours are OK

Coop


FreakedInFlorida
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:33 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

First off, I am not a weather person and I don't play one on TV, though I did consider staying at a Holiday Inn Express during Frances. I recently found out about this board from some discussion on other sites about Frances, and have found it very educational and helpful and I thank the members of this system for that.

I agree with you Rich. Having worked in the media, I have to wonder if Accuweather's forecast is not based a bit on what will sell more subscriptions/hits/ads. The more danger something is perceived to be in, the more people will go and view it to see if it perhaps has changed or not. I did notice that today, the forecast did seem to be 45 miles higher than before. Still, since day 1, it's been a Florida storm. I'm not saying JB isn't right. He may very well be. What I am concerned with is that if the track models and NHC are all over the map, how can he be so certain? I don't subscribe to his service, so maybe he justifies that position in the subscription area, but to the general public, it appears that he is just making a path up. A path that benefits Accuweather in terms of visitors/watchers then one that reflects the uncertainty of the guidance.

We are weather worn here in Florida and the thought of another hurricane cutting into the coast at Cat 2 is just plain scary. But if it happens, it happens, but I would hope that the tracks shown reflect the best science we have and not just what's beneficial to the packager.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:45 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Well recon alittle while ago shows that it is indeed the low level swirl. I would expect this to be a TD by 5pm with the convection off to the E. Right now its hard to say what will happen. First off let me say Im not throughing out what I said could happen in earlier post. Anyways Hispaniola hurt Jeanne, but the shear killed her.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:47 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

I agree - if Jeanne comes to Florida, whether through the straits or through Central Fl, she comes. All that is certain about this storm is its uncertainty. We must just be on guard for any moment's notice ! What a trip!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:54 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

The new low level swirl already shows good circulation but it is obviously in its infantile stage. If it maintains is present WSW heading it will be over Cuba late this afternoon. Any westward or even WNW heading after that will keep it over Cuba for some time.

Will landfall and topography have a decent chance of finishing off Jeanne...?


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:56 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

I think it is possible that this may dissipate over Cuba, and it may do it later tonight or tomorrow

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 02:57 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

can anyone tell me how often the models are run? I mean, I look at the computer models on weatherunderground and they show NOGAPS ran at 8pm last night, the GDFL, UKMET, GFS ran at 8am this morning., and the BAMM ran at 2pm this afternoon. While they all seem to being doing loops in the end, they all seem to be in general agreement with the direction. I just wondered because that general direction is away from the US.until they start looping.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:02 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

So Jeanne just gave birth to another system, wow that's very rare. The shear must have sheared the storm into two and the later one being the stronger is going to develop into a TD. I didn't even see that turn to Cuba, that hit me off guard, hopefully the other part of Jeanne will die.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:07 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

what is the other part that is developing?

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:13 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Just to the East of the former cloud mass Jeanne, lies convection that has lingered over Puerto Rico for days now. Remeber that intense tail that we saw from Jeanne when it was a hurricane, well that's the area that we should watch for some development.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:16 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

that swirl is NOT new. It is Jeanne. To the east is the mid level circulation.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:17 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

It's not, then it's really disorganized. I don't think it should even be called a tropical depression though...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:24 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Good to hear from ya'll. Basically the waves picked up during the day and we sat and waited for ivan to hit, not expecting a direct hit. things werent to bad but by about 5pm weds. they started getting worse. thats about the time ppl started loosing power. luckily we didnt loose it till 10pm and by that time the winds were really gusty. by 11 you could hear a faint roar coming and about 30 minutes later the winds were roaring. there were transformers exploding all around by 12. From 12-3 I think is when things were the worse. we have a steel double door in the front of the place that we had to tie shut with rope and we tied it to a skid of paper. by this time i was scared becasue i could hear things flying and hitting the building but after 1 you couldnt hear anything else but the wind. it was a non stop high pitch roar. it was like that till about 3 or 4am. things slowly started to calm down. when the first light came up i cut the rope and stepped outside and nearly fainted. i couldnt believe how bad it was. trees, lights,signs and other things that were there wednsday werent there. we had a huge oak tree up-rooted and dragged by the wind about 10 feet. all the street poles were snapped and there was just a ton of garbage everywhere, shingles, broken signs. even a icebox from a gas station across the street was in our parking lot. there was a huge steel billboard that had been completely bent to the ground. ithe building we stayed in had only alittle roofing gone and siding blown off. we were lucky. we stayed in the central room all night till the roof was fluttering so we went to a hallway till morning. well, i'd be more in-depth but i got tons to do, so i'll post more later. cheers

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:24 PM
Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Afternoon all...

Went to bed at 11 or so last night and slept till 1:30 today. Man did I need that...how I slept through Ivan's tropical downpours and winds this am is beyond me but I don't care.

Haven't checked any of the models or read JB...just your posts...this accuweather vs. the nhc and other media bashing is getting out of hand...it's like sides are being taken, lines are being drawn in the sand and it's not good or healthy right now. Most of you have been through hell and those who haven't are lucky. The last thing we need on this board is fighting over whether JBs forecast will verify 6 days down the road. I subscribe to accuwx but I think they're wrong with Jeanne but they may be right and only time will tell...it's as simple as that!

People are going to be in therapy after this season with post traumatic stress disorder! Many who have taken the time to post here don't even have homes to go to or if they do, they can't get to them...save your energy for helping them!!!

Still haven't heard from rickonboat...anyone care about him???

JK and Coop had a twister almost land on their heads DURING a CAT III!

Countless others probably fared even worse!!!

I've been letting everything through with very few exceptions but I'm getting a little tired of what has gone on since yesterday with the personal attacks.

Back to the weather for a moment...

I'm not even going to attempt to predict Jeanne...I'm getting ajida (sp) just thinking about her.

Ivan...his remains blew thru here early this morning...tremendous lightning and winds (considering he's a remnant low) easily gusts to 50 mph...Very windy still...I live on the first floor of a condo and the winds ripped a section from the third floor partially off (I have no idea what material it is...the building was built in the 50's and is primarily concrete, but this is some strange material), and it is now banging into my bedroom window...maybe I'll take a photo for upload later. Lots of limbs down, yadayadayada...

But that's not what I noticed most...popped on twc and the strangest thing I ever saw...this puppy was chugging ne and all of a sudden a piece split off over jersey and started heading south...maybe that piece of energy can do what was predicted and reform and head south...who knows with this system...

A'ight [tm HF], sorry for the rambling, but we all need to support each other not argue over the networks and the models!

PEACE!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:27 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

By the way, the reason we tied the doors shut was becasue the wind had already sicked it open a few times around 10 when the conditons were just getting bad.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:28 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

So this derivative of Jeanne to the east can develop into a TD later? Do you suppose it is this 'piece' or subpart' that Accuweather states that will head north than get caught in the high that will take it to Florida? I mean Accuweather continues to show Jeanne cutting across Florida; I am not sure of that occuringl. But if that mass due east of Jeanne were to develop than it would become daughter of Jeanne, Lisa if it evolves to TS status . What a season. Crazy. :?:

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:35 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Good to hear from you, you slept through prob the worst thunderstorm on LI history.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:37 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

"But that's not what I noticed most...popped on twc and the strangest thing I ever saw...this puppy was chugging ne and all of a sudden a piece split off over jersey and started heading south...maybe that piece of energy can do what was predicted and reform and head south...who knows with this system..."

Yeah, there have been a couple of places and folks calling this split. JB has been on this piece dropping down and back to the Gulf. Not sure that will happen; but my luck at figuring out what has been going on the last few days is about as good as me hitting all six numbers in the Florida Lottery.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:52 PM
what about another area to look at.

Since it looks like Jeanne has done a full ejection of the prior LLC. I can not see what popped out being viable very long. Does it look like a chance what was left behind around 21N 71W spins up and organizes. There seems to be a hint of circulation trying to get going. Not sure if there is anything at the lower levels; but itt does appear to be an area that would be in better shape if it does spin up.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:56 PM
Check this out...

WV Loop

Anyone want to try to make sense out of this setup?


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 03:56 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

TWC is forecasting Jeanne to head back over open waters. I am assuming they mean out to the Atlantic. They are not mentioning the new energy yet. So I guess we may be out in front about 24 hours.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:04 PM
Re: what about another area to look at.

Somebody said it looked like Jeanne hit the "eject" button.... that was cute... and very appropriate. Being a newbie on here (since Frances) I gather I'm seeing a lot of new stuff that even the old timers haven't seen...

This is twice that the eye of Jeanne has split off... that has to be unheard of. How many lives does she have? Will Cuba be her undoing?


poetdi
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:04 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

This is only my 2nd post having lurked and learned since before Frances hit us here in the Orlando area. FWIW I have a friend who works for Progress Energy (old Florida Power) who told me today they've released and sent home all the power crews they had here locally getting everyone's power back. They must be pretty confident that we'll have nothing else hitting us for a while to have done that... I guess Progress Energy watches the models and has forecasting going on there too.

Thanks so much to everyone on this board for the learning opportunities is has provided us all.

Poetdi


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:11 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

poetdi... I'm sure it's much more a matter of priorities. Surely those crews are badly needed in the aftermath of Ivan's path, now that the Central FL power grid is mostly reenergized.

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:15 PM
Re: Check this out...

I have had a couple of ideas about that all day but I am going to sit on them for now and enjoy this weekend

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:15 PM
Jeanne's Split Personality

If you look at the floater on the below website, it looks as if the little swirl that appears to be Jeanne's LLC is now moving SSW if not S. Can anyone verify or know of any source that's trying to describe what's going on until the 5 PM discussion comes out?

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

It also looks as if a circulation is trying to form just north of the Caicos Islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:19 PM
Re: Jeanne's Split Personality

I'd love to know too. I am a total novice and I do not understand what would make the center drop off all the convection and leave it behind.
Helen


poetdi
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:23 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

AdmittedHacker, you are no doubt correct and that's the right thing for them to do. Many of the crews that worked on our neighborhoods here were from North Carolina and they need to be at home helping their own. But apparently some crews had been staying here cooling their heels waiting to see what happened with Jeanne.

Slightly off topic but since electricity is so central to all our lives and the discussions here have touched on how much we missed it (for myself, 9 total days with both Charley and Frances) - several local governments (including the one where I live) are considering localizing the power utility and ending their contracts with Progress Energy. After watching the resources ProgEnergy commands in these situations I can't believe they'd still seriously consider it. Don't know if anyone else has seen this happen but it boggles my mind.

Poetdi


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:26 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

I was just reading the caribbean site and it looks like Jeanne is not as weak as she seems on satellite. She has given the DR quite a storm and she is causing some flooding rain in the Turks and Caicos so what ever she may or may not be at this time she is producing head aches.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:35 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

I just talked to a friend of mine from West Palm Beach and he just got power back yesterday. My brother said that up in Ft. Walton Beach he might be without power for up to three weeks.

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:39 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Yeah... on my drive to work Friday (Orlando to Palm Beach for the weekend), I passed dozens of utility and tree-trimming trucks heading back north on 95. There were still a few in the area down here, including a few from Progress... but remember all those out-of-state guys are just contracted for disaster relief, so they were either heading back to their home regions, or better yet to Ivan country.

While FPL has been getting a lot of blame for slow restoration (and rightfully so, thanks to their complete lack of tree clearance), the actual line crews have all been top-notch, and worked their butts off to get things back up as soon as possible.


ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:43 PM
Re: Jeanne's Split Personality

Latest Discussion Out

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html


poetdi
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:47 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Yes, it's been challenging. I know people in Port Orange who were without power for several weeks after Frances. I am very grateful that we got our power back on so relatively quickly - although I admit moaning loudly about it at the time. We certainly don't want to go through it again, regardless, and are glad Jeanne seems likely to fizzle or go elsewhere - or so it seems today. I suspect we will move from Florida before the next hurricane season. Thinking of Arizona but even there is apparently not safe with Javier looming!! What a crazy season!!!

Poetdi


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:47 PM
Re: Jeanne's Split Personality

Shaggy, you are right. The former eye is being pulled into the inertia of the initial circulation. The latest frames show it heading SSW then S... if that continues, it will be pulled into the straits between Cuba and Haiti.

While this may put it back over land (haiti) on the easterly leg of the rotation it also combines the eye with the original vapor remaining over the DR. You can see convection now firing up on the extreme end of Haiti, at the end of the island.

Here'a another link for a sat loop (click large & most recent):

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...04-ATL-09L.IVAN,04-ATL-11L.JEANNE,04-ATL-12L.KARL,04-EPAC-13E.JAVIER,04-WPAC-92W.INVEST,


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:50 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Hate going off-topic, but in reply to localizing power utilities, it's an interesting idea that easily can go HORRIBLY wrong. Take Lake Worth for instance... The city does their own utilities, but it's all just bought from FPL (no generation of their own, Lake Worth isn't nearly big enough). It's been highlighted well before the storm that they pay the highest price per kWh in the state, and have the worst service / most outages. The city lost power about 18 hours before the storm hit, and restoration didn't begin for almost a week. Suffice it to say, some things are better left in the hands of large, financially independent corporations.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:50 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Final word on the disagreements from me:

Spock, I was critical once but apologized because I thought you were someone else. I told you so in the prior thread. But what you find critical of yourself in this:

That's what he believes. People accuse him of hyping and sensationalism. He likes the extreme stuff (as apparently so do we). But that was his opinion. I have not read today's post, but let me see...

He thinks it's cat 2 or 3 by Tuesday/Wed with all options open. Ivan's MLC should split south and southwest tonight bringing gales to the northern GA coast and end up in the NE Gulf by around Monday nigh (depending on what's left). The irony woul dbe something heading toward the West and Central Gulf (again, due to the pattern, similar to way Gaston was sniffed out 2 weeks before anything was there) that is neither Ivan nor Jeanne, but could be one or both.

I said last Thursday morning on S2K and posed a challenge in 3 different threads for any of the met gurus to figure out what is the most complex tropical situation we've seen in forever. Bastardi also acknowledges(ed) the same thing and presents his opinion as such.


is beyond me. I was simply explaining where I was coming from and what he was saying. If you don't agree with it, fine. I said I didn't agree with Bastardi in the reply after the original cut and paste from the S2K thread. I just presented what he said MIGHT happen. In the response to Darth, I used the UK Met.

My take is that it's been "too complicated to guess" since Thursday. It still is. We've got interaction with 3 storms or (or their remnants). Anything could happen. Ivan's MLC (if the UK Met - which has changed a little since the 00Z run) might be a Gulf entity as just some showery weather. Jeanne could get in the Gulf, but I think the slower she is really determines her fate. I don't agree with Bastardi about the compromise tracks between Frances and Ivan close to Florida. I see it much farther north of there. And if it gets back too far NNE after Monday or Tuesday, it may never get back to FL. If it even comes back, we'd be talking Charleston and farther north. No hard feelings. I don't agree with him either, but his strogest lean was put out for informational purposes.
----------------------------------------------
richie,

No big deal. What I think you're saying is after being hit by 2 storms, the last thing you want is someone telling you to watch out for another one because the official forecast doesn't call for such scenario yet. In truth, there are probably numerous options from no landfalls of anything to a couple of strikes on the coast over the next 8-10 days. I told Spock I was confused. I'll tell you the same thing. I don't think anything will be cleared up this weekend, and probably not even by Monday or Tuesday. Until then, it's all eyes on the tropics.

Steve


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:57 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Ok Steve...thanks and here's hoping to no strike anywhere and some good waves from Jeanne or whoever/whatever she is right now

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:57 PM
Re: Jeanne's Split Personality

Looks like the area behind Karl is starting to develop.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:01 PM
CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Besides rickonboat, is there anyone who hasn't checked in after Ivan? Anyone besides me the least bit concerned?

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:03 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

I don't recall anything out of A1T.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:03 PM
Re: Jeanne's Split Personality

The latest NHC advisory sounds like Jeanne is an official use-to-was. That cloud cluster is out there and is not going to bother anyone on the US coast and may make it out to the open atlantic by tomorrow morning. That will leave the Gulf Coast time to recuperate from things for about 2 to 3 weeks before we have to worry about a late Gulf season spinning up from the Bay of Campeche which has been dutifully quiet this year so far.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:04 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

What about James Kelley?? And his wife??

52255225
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:05 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Ive been wondering about rickonboat for awhile now. Is he in louisiana or mississippi? I hope all is well for him and others that havent been here awhile.

mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:05 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Phil I am concerned and everytime I see a pic of a destroyed or beached boat I am thinking of him but I remember how I was after Charley. Being online was the last thing on my mind. Here and now stuff was. I am hoping that is what is going on with him now.
Helen


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:05 PM
Re: Jeanne's Split Personality

NHC says a second center of circulation just north of the Turks and Caicos, and predicts the original eye has (or will) dissipate. I can't see the second circ center from the sat loop, but it must be there...

The projected track has been adjusted eastward again, with the post 3-day stall (and prediction caveat) intact.


ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:08 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

That's Jason Kelley, and I don't recall seeing anything from him or rickonboat.

SC Bill
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:09 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Didn't Rick mention, when he secured the boat and left for "higher ground", that he would be out of touch for several days??

I hope I am correct on that.


Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:09 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

He is still Jason Kelley as far as I know ...he has been on air and fine....feel sure his wife is also.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:11 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Woops!! But I definitely have thought about the situation with his wife and have wondered during my lurking why nobody had mentioned it. I figured storm night and next day, obviously busy. So hopefully you'll hear from them soon.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:12 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

I received a PM from Andy1Tom after sharing with him some unfortunate news about a couple of other CFHC family...he was shaken but not stirred, needs to help other family with the clean up. So he's OK.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:14 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

I also remember Rickinaboat talking about going to a secure place after securing his boat.
Hopefully, he'll check in in soon.

Saw a report on CNN that more bodies are being found in the penscola area.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:17 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Quote:

It's been highlighted well before the storm that they pay the highest price per kWh in the state, and have the worst service / most outages. The city lost power about 18 hours before the storm hit, and restoration didn't begin for almost a week. Suffice it to say, some things are better left in the hands of large, financially independent corporations.




I should point out the other side. While JEA in Jacksonville has had some issues in power restoration, they are able to offer rates below all of the major companies. They finally requested their first rate increase in 13 years last month. It is possible for a municipality to do utilities right. The big companies do have an advantage after major hurricanes. However, how many times does that really come into play?


ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:18 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

This year? At least 2 or 3 times for one area...

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:18 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Jason posted onThursday night and he's fine considering what he went thru.

BillD
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:22 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Jason posted here the day after, including a link to a video clip of the tornado going past his station, and narrated by him. His wife is fine and no baby yet.

Bill


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:22 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Looks to me like Jeanne is reforming in the area pinpointed by NHC. The circulation was starting to show about an hour before the advisory in a very broad area. It appears that recon was able to find it. I think the systems will settle in in 12-24 hours and things will get back to a more predictable chaos versus free for all chaos that is going on. It will be interesting to see what happens with that piece of Ivan that broke off. Looks like it is moving at a good clip in the water vapor loops.

52255225
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:28 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

youre talking about this one right? is that him speaking?http://www.wjhg.com

SC Bill
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:33 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

this is off the topic of who's unaccounted for, but I was just checking my local weather and, well, look at this radar image from Charleston, SC. What is up with this?! :?:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kclx.shtml


poetdi
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:35 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Quote:

The big companies do have an advantage after major hurricanes. However, how many times does that really come into play?




For those of us who lost power for many days - once was enough to convince me that a small local utility could not possibly do the big work needed after a storm. If we are indeed into a new 20-year cycle of these storms (or so I have read in several newspapers) I'll take the big company. Anyone who lives in the Kissimmee Utility Authority area want to weigh in?

Poetdi


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:36 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

That radar is in what is called "Clear Air Mode." Layman terms, it is a more sensative setting then the standard precipitation mode and display echos that would not normally show up; but there is not precepitiation.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:44 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

I have freinds in Kissimmee. KUA was unprepared and caught off guard. They were not expecting cat 3 conditions and did not have enough out of state crews on call. It was an operational error that I am sure they will not make again. Most of the people I knew in Kissimme had power before I did in Poinciana with Progress Energy.

One more caveat. I have been involved in recovery efforts in six major hurricanes over the last decade. The recovery from Charley was one of the fastest I have ever seen. Kissimmee suffered a total loss. Five years ago, that would have been a two month restoration. No matter how it looks, there are always problems with power restoration after a storm. you are going to hear horror stories after Ivan. I have yet to see a major delineation between private and municipal recoveries. Most of the differences have had to do with the level of restoration required. As was the case in Kissimmee in my opinion.


BillD
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:52 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Yes, that is Jason's voice. Someone on the board here (can't remember who it was) actually saw that live.

Bill


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:54 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Bill, I was just about to post that. It was Coop who saw it live...we've been PMing about it...That's some SCARY stuff...surprise both aren't in therapy right now.

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 05:55 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

I can tell you for sure I was one.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:02 PM
Steve,

I figured I was part of your post to Richie, since my name was in there. That's what bothered me. The problem with doing this message board stuff is it is very easy to misconstrue something-whether it's remembering who said what, or who MEANT what, etc.
I have written many emails that sounded the way i wanted them to when I wrote them, but when I re-read at another time, it seemed like I am saying something else. That's a big hazzard of communicating without voice inflections, and a back-and-forth type of thing.

As far as JB, I did blame him when it was in reality, it was a "member of the team" that night. I also called out a local tv weatherman for doing the same thing in reverse, and he is eating some big dishes of crow today.
I don't read his stuff, I used to subscribe to them probably 15 years ago, long before all of this stuff was found on the internet. Having the amateur experience that I do, I see things from a different perspective. I took heat in school for wrong forecasts that agreed with everyone else-it happens. I used to be a bolder forecaster, but later on, I realized the power of those words.
I have no problems when people disagree....that often leads to excellent discussion, and you can really learn from that. But, I also won't get on anyone for it either though, because someday, the situation will be reversed.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:03 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

I have seen the new model runs and they have the storm becoming stationary and then moving westward into Florida as the ridge builds overtop of the storm. Betsy was a simliar storm to this, blocking ridge and then all of a suddent the a weakness occured and the storm went right into Florida.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:04 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Can you post a link to those new runs?

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:05 PM
Is JB on TV tonight?

I think I heard somewhere that JB was going to be on TV, does anyone know when?

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:06 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Surely
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:09 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Thanks for the link...I might be wrong, and someone who knows please correct me if I am, but those are all 12z runs or older...I didn't think the 18z runs were in yet.

Liz L.
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:10 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

I have OUC here in St Cloud, Florida. during Chraley we lost power for 3 days and for Francis were lost power for a whole 10 hrs, I am grateful we didnt go longer and feel for the people that went weeks without power.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:10 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

Well they're new for me, I haven't been home all day. Watched my homecoming game, and it rained.

mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:12 PM
Re: Is JB on TV tonight?

From his site..."I will be on Fox tonight between 8 and 10 pm ( I think 8:30)."

Helen


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:14 PM
Re: Is JB on TV tonight?

Yeah, I read that too, he said "8:30, I think". Does anyone know if this is the local fox station or the fair and balanced channel?

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:16 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for?

I just looked for the 18z GFS, and it is only out to 84 hours. Here is a good link to some of the models:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

They also loop them, which is nice, but take a little while to load sometimes.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:18 PM
Re: Is JB on TV tonight? *DELETED*

Post deleted by Keith234

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:18 PM
Ivan bloody Ivan

I should probably wait till tomorrow for the subject to become a little more apropo, but for a piece of a remanant, that sucker sure looks in better shape than it should be. It's moving over nice warmish water. but what other factors would create a regeneration scenario. (And don't include anything about the T-Virus helping this sucker out

are we about to see a 'Fujwara effect' with two (hopefully weak) systems?

Mark
Go Falcons


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:21 PM
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan

Bloodstar,

When you have a Fujiwhara affect you usually have one very strong storm and one weak storm and the later one controlling it. So we'll have to see.


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:21 PM
Re: Is JB on TV tonight?

>>> Shoot I just lost the Yankee game, what channel is it on?

Um, Keith...the yankees played on our Fox 5 here this afternoon...the game ended hours ago. I turned it off when we were winning 13-1 in the 8th...Leiber carried a no hitter into the seventh inning, when Richiewx told me it was on...so I missed most of it myself.


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:22 PM
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan

I sure hope not considering I just learned what one was from this board. I sure picked a bad time to learn about hurricanes. Watching Jeanne start a new eye after the other one seperated off is freaking me out! I thought it was done for and then she has a baby?

Whats up with that?!



Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:23 PM
Re: Is JB on TV tonight?

Whoa, then what was I watching. I most be going crazy or maybe they where repeating it? BACK TO JEANNE!

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:25 PM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Yes, though I did say -can- go wrong. Jacksonville is huge, in terms of both geography and population of course. With its own power plants, it's a completely different scenario for JEA. LWU on the other hand has to buy their juice from FPL just like everybody else (at discount of course), then mark it up to cover their own lower-volume maintenance and infrastructure.

Larger cities, which can afford their own plants and operate at high volume, are in a much better situation to handle their own utilities than small cities and towns like Lake Worth or Kissimmee.


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:28 PM
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan

I don't know if there will be enough left of Ivan for that, but the GFS still insists on keeping a little piece separate from Jeanne, which looks like a drunken sailor trying to walk on his ship.
Earlier, when I saw a sat pic of Jeanne, it did look like it had some cold-core characteristics, then it spit out its center. I was suprised by the 5 pm discussion, but obviously, they know what they saw.
If it sits and spins out there as long as they think, it might be hard-pressed to get real strong as it churns up cooler water beneath it. Forecasting that type of track should be done with a larger eraser though.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:36 PM
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan

A light small spinner would not stir up the water very much would it? I mean wouldn't it take at least a CAT 1 to make the water turn up 200 ft or more from under the surface?

mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:37 PM
loops

Could this be the loop that the models were seeing? Remember I am a total novice.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Helen


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:38 PM
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan

I noticed that too, it's center wasn't located in the area of deep convection, and it looked as though it had a lower cloud deck, made out of more stratus clouds. Also it had a comma shape to it too. Well right now it looks like it's back to a tropical system, and I think Karl could have some affect of Jeanne too, depending on when it recurves. Clark could explain the transtion to extra-tropical and the characteristics much better as he is studying it.

Clark could explain it better because he is meterologist, not a student in high school!


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:40 PM
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan

Good point, that is true, but if it did strengthen and sit still, it would end up being self-destructive intesification probably.
If it wants to spin in the same spot as a 55 kt Trop. Storm, I don't think any of us would mind.

Also, I don't know the state of temps out there (I haven't looked) to see if it is stirred up from prior storms or not.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:41 PM
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan

Frances prob stirred up some water in that area, maybe that's limting the potential for cyclongenesis.

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:48 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for & My Story.... after sleep

I made a post sometime ago but have been asked about the tornado incident in PCB/PC..... I was on the computer on this site...NWS, my level III radar running(feeling quite like a little weatherman at this point) and Ch 7 WJHG on behind me. JK and crew were on at the top & bottom of the hour w/ updates on Ivan. I had a few hooks as it appeared on my radar so I was ready to send a severe wx report to Tally, I figured a severe T'storm shortly.... well about then JK is alarmed by his Vipir radar and has Greg M. pan around w/ the tower cam.... I think everyone knows the rest.... I did manage to click off my report to Tally of a tornado... ran to the living room where my wife was watching JK... I got her into the safe room (yes, I really had one ready) grabbed my camera, and yes, stepped outside. I have seen a few tornados from a good distance but I have never seen anything like this. It was huge and I am sure it passed right over or near us but had lifted back up. There was a fair amount of debris floating in the air but I kept dropping the damn camera. I got one pic but it is not very good and at this point I decided to get inside. I wanted to share this with you all but I had lost internet during the event.... sort of spooky...the last radar loop I had was 4:05pm CDT. So anyway we spent the rest of the night w/ my good buddy JK and crew as he/they went on to do a truly fantastic job and I know he saved some lives that night. About it that I can think of.

Coop...BTW no NOAA radio after that, tornado got it. WJHG was the Wx radio....still is.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:52 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

i am seared and why are this hurricanes are comeing?


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 06:53 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for & My Story.... after sleep

THAT had to be scary. The closest I came was when on vacation, and strangely, the storm moved ssw along the Jersey coast due to an upper low out there (June, 1994).
I saw the funnel, reported it, but it never touched down. It was about 1 block north of me, but elevated of course. When it moved over the colder ocean, it dissipated.
Then, we got one heck of storm. It was odd, because the storm moved backwards, we saw the funnel first, not last.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 07:03 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Lets try to refocus a little. Two current themes need to be dropped. The Accuweather discussion has centered on personalities rather than the storms that are out there. What may seem irresponsible to some could be critical planning information to others. If the forecast seems bad to you, talk about the forecast, but not the individual who made it. I too brief Emergency Management personnel and my outlook on Jeanne has gone down the tubes (more than once). They know that, but they still ask me to keep trying.

Comments on power companies are a real stretch for the Main Page. If you have some usefull information regarding electric service that would be of benefit to others, put it in the Disaster Forum where it more appropriately belongs.

Mike and John are not available and I'm still hauling debris and briefing management on Jeanne - both difficult tasks. LI Phil and HanKFranK have done a great job in the interim and Storm Cooper is getting his baptism under fire - my thanks to all of them.

On Jeanne: Under westerly shear, the low level circulation center moved westward away from the primary convection this morning and this center, still quite strong, is now in the process of completing a cyclonic loop. It is also beginning to capture convection again - and that could create an interesting dilemma since NHC has identified a new center further to the east and north of the primary swirl. The 'new' center has probably been there all along - originally embedded in the main feeder band southeast of Puerto Rico. In other words Jeanne has always been a binary system - something that 'meteorology' is not yet willing to accept, but they do happen - and quite often. New concepts in any science sometimes take a long time to gain acceptance - and Meteorology is certainly one of the newer sciences, so we still have a lot to learn. Where will Jeanne go and how strong will she get? Nobody really knows for sure (myself included). Upper air patterns would suggest a slow movement to the north followed by an anticyclonic block and a turn to the west. How far north and how soon the turn is anybodys best guess - yours included. Recon has identified the new center at 22.2N 72.1W, 1002mb, 42kts at flight level. Original center is at 23.8N 73.9W at 21Z. 1004mb.

Karl is well on his way to becoming the fifth major hurricane of the season. The system behind Karl should become TD 13 later tonight.

For the moment, comments regarding the well-being of the CFHC family along the northern Gulf are fine - because we are one. Jason Kelley and his family are okay and he did not suffer any damage to his home - and probably considers himself lucky.
Cheers,
ED


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 07:05 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for & My Story.... after sleep

While were on this Tornado stories, I have been 30 feet away from one. One touched down in my high school football field while I was playing baseball with a few friends. I studpidly almost went right into it but then one of my friends pulled me away. It was weird it wasn't raining and there was only a couple lighting bolts, one of the bolts just happened when the tornado touched down right next to it. All I can remember is my ears popping when I got close to it and then it disapated. It was very amazing but this thing was a weak F1 not anything like what you guys experinced.

P.S Storm Stories tonight has a good episode about a tornado, and real live footage.


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 07:05 PM
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for & My Story.... after sleep

No problem Spock. I'll usually used a dashed line or address whoever I'm talking to in a specific portion of a post. You're right, it's a little tougher in text.
----------------------------------
Looks like some of Ivan's remains are showing up on that WV loop moving southward and getting into the upper right corner of that loop.

Steve


ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 07:13 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Thanks Ed, that was an excellent analysis of Jeanne. The binary tropical system theory seems very interesting. Do you know of any literature, or any internet sources, that elaborate on the subject?


- Here's a closeup of the smaller circulation and the area just to the east. It does appear to be completing some sort of rotation or circular-type movement.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 07:39 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Does that mean Jeanne is a twin? Could the two systems break apart and become two storms? Or is that why she can't gain strength because there has been this other force taking away from her main eye?


Did the mountains in the DR have anything to do with it?
Kinda like what happens with twins in reproduction? ie when one cell splits, half of its DNA stays and half goes to the new cell but they turn out to be identical later?

It seems possible to me that storms could have mutating eye's like cells can have mutating genes.

OK stop laughing....

I'm serious!


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 07:49 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Here is a complicated discussion on it
ams.confex.com/ams/last2000/24Hurricanes/abstracts/12783.htm
I couldn't really find anything else. All that came up was about binary interaction.


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 07:54 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Can you repost that link...the one you provided isn't a link...I copied & pasted adding "www" to the beginning and that didn't work either. Thanks!

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 07:55 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Thanks, Keith.
Phil, I just put it in my address bar, and all you need to add is the 'http://' to make it work. Likewise, i've found the search quite bleak as of yet.

Thanks shaggy dude! Scoobie out!


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 07:58 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

really it did work for me, it doesn't have a "www" at the front or a ".com" at the back. I got it from going to www.ask.com and put in binary tropical systems, the first thing was the one link I posted, not much more about it.

See above post...shaggy dude took care of it...


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:05 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Oh okay, apparently there are two types of binary interaction CA and CAD, seems very complicated but I bet if it was explained in a viusal manner then I could understand it better. Anyway, it's gives you the speration for the binary interaction and everything, those models must have that info put in them too. Maybe that's the reason why some model's have Jeanne doing loops and some models don't or didn't (I should say) is because of the research and accuracy of this infomation. Very interesting.

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:05 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

here is something:

"Some of the most intense tropical cyclones exhibit concentric eye walls, two or more eye wall structures centered at the circulation center of the storm. Just as the inner eye wall forms, convection surrounding the eye wall can become organized into distinct rings. Eventually, the inner eye begins to feel the effects of the subsidence resulting from the outer eye wall, and the inner eye wall weakens, to be replaced by the outer eye wall. The pressure rises due to the destruction of the inner eye wall are usually more rapid than the pressure falls due to the intensification of the outer eye wall, and the cyclone itself weakens for a short period of time."
(Willoughby et al. 1982,Willoughby 1990a )


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:07 PM
Waiting on JB

Got "we report you decide" on right now, eagerly awaiting the JB appearance. Quite frankly I never watch these shows and here's why:

They just announced today is the anniversary of the death of Jimi Hendrix at age 28. Well, he died at the age of 27. How difficult is it to check facts? Either that, or someone needs to take math class all over again.

One of the promos also made reference to Jeanne, and pronounced it Genie...didn't we decide it was pronounced "Jean" three or four days ago?

JB better be on, that's all I can say.

Sorry ED, but this just bugged the everliving --- out of me!


ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:10 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Indeed, I just wish there are some examples and statistics from the atlantic, as well as more detail. Still searching for something that would suffice.

- Kent, the quote you had is more of a regeneration, shedding skin type situation, wheras the binary circulation phenomenon is like twins. Then again, if you weren't talking about that situation, I apologize.


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:23 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

no you are right. I am just finding stuff on google the last one I posted was definately right though.
(somehow its posted on another board called storms in other basins)
and here is a link about Hurricane Edna She had two eyes hit in different areas.
first a quote:
"The eye of the storm split into two sections. One eye was said to be over Cape Cod near Brewster, while the other was said to be northeast of Provincetown. Record pressure readings at Truro (28.29") and Nantucket (28.18") supported the presence of the two eyes as they are over 60 miles apart."

Can you imagine?

http://www.pivot.net/~cotterly/edna.htm


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:27 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Maybe it's just a huge eye trying to form or maybe a concentric eyewall cycle?

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:30 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Yeah, I have a feeling it's just an extremely large eyewall, as 60 miles apart isn't too big a difference for some of the larger hurricanes that make their way towards New England. Then again, just a gut feeling.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:31 PM
JB?

Sounds like JB will be making that appearance within the next few minutes on Fox News Channel.

Will be interested to see if it comes to fruition...


ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:36 PM
Re: JB?

JB was very conservative with Jeanne - exactly the same as the NHC.

Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:37 PM
Re: JB?

Oy Gevalt!

Ivan coming back and re-forming in the Central Gulf??????


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:41 PM
Re: JB?

Anyone else just see JB? It's one thing to make a crow munching forecast on your own website, quite another on national tv...

Notice he backed off on Jeanne...heh


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:43 PM
Re: JB?

Now I remember why I don't watch major media on weather events. Whoever this anchor is, he has no clue about what questions he is asking about.

JB gave a pretty straight forward comment. Jeanne is in line with NHC and he talked about his Ivan theory back in the gulf. DId not have a chance to go further becuase of time and talking head blabbering.


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:44 PM
Attachment
Karl and Possible Future Lisa

Here's a nice image of both systems off of Africa

--Lou


Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:44 PM
Re: JB?

I saw him, I respect him, but I still follow what I follow.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:46 PM
Re: JB?

Quote:

Anyone else just see JB? It's one thing to make a crow munching forecast on your own website, quite another on national tv...

Notice he backed off on Jeanne...heh




He was calling for the loop all day. Not sure he really backed off. I'm not sure who is in charge of graphics at Accuweather though. Truthfully, it has never been JB's track. He was calling for a Florida Straits shot most of the time. I think someone else actually sets the graphic tracks.

Just looked at Accuweathers new track. Looks like a druken sailor. Did not get the impression that was the track JB was talking about.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:48 PM
Re: JB?

Imagine working with him!

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 08:51 PM
Re: JB?

I'm going to see it at 10 because I have DirectTV and the Fox 5 news show that he's on is showing at a different time, don't ask me why.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 09:07 PM
Re: JB?

I thought JB handled it well. He noticed when John K. was running to hard without the football there, and calmed it down.

I feel like I have seen JB this week more than my wife. Of course, the answer would be to turn off the tv.

Jeanne still doesn't look that good to me. I wonder what the 11 PM will look like? For those who are wondering, the GFS has the thing moving north for a while, looping, then eventually moving it back to the north and northeast well offshore. Reliability is not very good that far out, especially when a model tries to forecast a loop, but that is the only model I really view that goes out 16 days.

Edit for this:
I wonder if Ivan did happen to go back into the Gulf, and something did spin up, if it would have a different name?


Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 09:08 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Jeanne seems to be moving to the NNE, just maybe that the cold front will push her to the northeast before the high moving down to block Jeanne north track, wait and see, maybe that is the reasons models are having a hard time with this one.

Dave


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 09:18 PM
Re: JB?

I'm guessing it would be a different name because the NHC doesn't believe in "life after death with tropical systems."

Edit:
I think we should make a forum for having commentary on the NHC forecasts and JB's forecasts. ED is going to get very mad at us if he see's doing all this talk about JB and the NHC.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 09:32 PM
Re: JB?

Well, we are talking about in the context of forecasts now and not the politics. Right now, it is like the end of the first half of afootball game and someone is going for a hail mary and hopes they hit it forecast wise. If not, things will settle and the truth will fall out of the sky at some point.

Everything is pretty much conjecture at this point. I'mnot even sure that if someone said something will happen in six hours that it would be a good chance of happening. It may the most confusing dynamic situation I have seen in some time. I think there is a general consensus on moving north and east at some time. Beyond that, I don't think anything is certain.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 09:35 PM
nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Sitting here trying to catch up to speed with like 400 posts and emails.. NHC kept Mitch .. Mitch after it was over land for 3 days and i always thought it should have been Nicole but they insisted on reusing Mitch when it came north towards Florida and the Gulf.. looked to me like remnants mixed with other system but they went with Mitch.. go figure.

Still trying to catch up on the Ivan controversy and figure out the jeanne thing after being off for 3 days


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 09:38 PM
JB redux

He was just on again...anyone catch that? SSDD

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 09:46 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Didn't the NHC say something like that about Bonnie becoming TD 9 and then after it was said and done, it was two storms.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 09:51 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

>>>> Didn't the NHC say something like that about Bonnie becoming TD 9 and then after it was said and done, it was two storms.

Well, Bonnie did form from the remnants of TD 2, but you are correct, look at Unisys and they have both TD 2 and bonnie listed, yet technically, bonnie should have been TD 3. We had a big to-do on this earlier this year.


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 09:58 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Bonnie was rightfully classified as TD2, because it was the same wave and the same low area

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:01 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Darn it I just read about this subject last week! I know they said it had to remain below a certain wind speed and look like it was broken up but I can't remember exactly. They do have precise perameters though.

I may have even read it on here....

sigh


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:02 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Rabbit,

We've had this argument before...my take then, and this is my take now, is that TD2=Bonnie. It formed from the same wave as you said.

If Ivan's remnants somehow miracuously reform into a TS, in my book that should still be Ivan, but mark my words, they will call it Lisa (unless something off Africa gets named first, then it would be the M storm - Michael I believe but I need to check that)


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:07 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

just a corrective note: Michael was 2000, Matthew will be this year (replacing the infamous Mitch)

Also, if Ivan regenerates, it will be only the fifth system to become an extratropical system and go back to a tropical one
(1=storm in 1899; 2=storm in 1943; 3=Bonnie, 1992; 4=Dean, 2001, after degenerating to a wave)


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:08 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Didn't want to bring up an arguement, why don't you email an NHC forecaster about this subject. That could shed some light on this.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:09 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Yeah, when I said "Michael" I knew that didn't jive with the six year cycle.

Any long time posters/lurkers dread that name (Matthew) too. And not because of hurricane action either!


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:14 PM
Jeanne

Jeanne is becomming a very frustrating storm from a forecasting standpoint--I have made about 15 separate forecasts since it formed, and not one has occured yet

This problem will get worse as we head into the last two months of the season, which are notorious for erratic movers--need I mention Gordon in 1994?


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:15 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Now that was just wrong...

No secrets!

and can anyone tell me if Jeanne has two eyes now or what?


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:18 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Phil..I think you'd be wrong on this one. They (NHC & Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) are still labeling the sysytem as the "remnant circulation of Ivan)....The Hydrometeorological Center even goes so far as to refer us to local weather service offices for furthur updates on this system (I assume since it is back over water and no longer under their jurisdiction???) Sounds to me IF ( a big IF) this cranked up again, they would reinitiate advisories as Ivan.

As for historical reference of the NHC reinitializing advisories on rejuvinated systems, we need look back no further than 2001. Both Chantal and Dean weakened to open waves before restrengthening back into tropical storms. In both cases, the NHC continued to use the name already given the system.
--Lou


jaybythebay
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:18 PM
Thanks for prayers

Power back here in parts of Mobile. What a difference 30-50 miles makes. Hope things slow down soon.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:18 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

The remnants of Ivan have broken up into two, one piece of the energy is heading southward while the other, more northward. The northward one is heading to that big semi-permanent low and the southward one is just heading southward. Who knows what that one will do but it's right now more of a baroclinic system and it is feeding off the energy of the front.

DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:19 PM
Re: A question please

Somehow I keep watching Karl, (and yes I now know that I am watching Karl, not Jeanne. sigh its all the studying for finals) and since I am learning I want to see why it is believed that Karl will turn north. My eye is new at this, but I sincerely want to learn.

Thanks
<me


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:20 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Figured I'd mention this while it is still the 18th:
Today is one year since Isabel, and 82 years since the Great Miami Hurricane


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:22 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

here is a full list going back to 1979 on storm regenerations
*=first part was a depression only
Claudette, Jul 15-18 and Jul 24-29 1979--shear
Dennis, Aug 7-13 and Aug 16-21 1981--shear
Fran, Aug 11-12* and Aug 13-14 1990--shear
Bonnie, Sep 17-26 and Sep 28-30 1992--extratropical
Bret, Aug 4-9 and Aug 10-11 1993--shear
Fran, Aug 23-25* and Aug 26-Sep 6 1996--shear
Danny, Jul 16-20 and Jul 24-26 1997--land, LA to VA
Mitch, Oct 21-Nov 1 and Nov 3-5 1998--land, Mexico
Nadine, Nov 24-26 and Nov 27-Dec 1 1998--shear
Helene, Sep 14-15* and Sep 19-22 2000--shear
Chantal, Aug 15-16 and Aug 17-22 2001--shear
Dean, Aug 22-23 and Aug 27-28 2001--shear
Erin, Sep 1-5 and Sep 6-14--shear
Felix, Sep 7-8* and Sep 10-18 2001--shear
Bertha, Aug 4-2 and Aug 7-9 2002--land, Louisiana
Isidore, Sep 14-15* and Sep 17-26 2002--shear
Lili opened to a wave for 12 hrs during the day on Sep 26 2002
Bonnie, Aug 3-4* and Aug 9-12 2004--shear
Gaston, Aug 27-29 and Aug 30-Sep 1 2004--land, SC to VA
some of the info is wrong.. but you're a through fellow, rabbit. -HF


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:30 PM
Re: A question please

Wow, you already have the finals, I just started school. Anyway if you look at any visible Sat imagery or any other imagery for this matter. You will notice a area of disturbed weather right to the left of where Jeanne is. Now this is a trough, or a elongated area of low pressure. These troughs kind of attract storms, the low part at least because hurricanes move in the direction of the prevailing flow of the atmosphere and these lows affect that flow. Think of the atmosphere as a fluid, the hurricane as an eddy and the trough as a whirpool it attracts the hurricane. Then the ridge is the exact opposite of a trough, hurricanes generally speaking don't like ridges and back away, sort of. There's a lot more to it them then just understanding upper level air features but a book on this material would greatly help. Only problem is there is very few books, and good books at that too. The best advice I can give for you is to learn through experince. Hope that helps!

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:33 PM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

This was in USA today Sept 16....

If the remnants of Ivan were to cross Virginia would it have the same name or would it be assigned a new name?

A: Ivan's remnants could cross the Southeast and regenerate as a tropical storm and maybe grow into a hurricane. If it did so, it would keep the same name. Storms that have done this have turned back to hit land again. Fortunately, none of the forecast models offer any indication that Ivan is going to do this.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/2004-08-20-hurricane-answers_x.htm

course I don't know who "Ask Jack" is.


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:40 PM
Karl

Now a major hurricane

Can you produce what/who is a major hurricane?


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:47 PM
Re: Karl

Well, the new forecast from NHC for Jeanne is just short of an official loop the loop. Still sounds like she is not completely stable. Stay tuned. Condiitions may change without notice. Offer void in Idaho.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:49 PM
Re: Karl

Rabbit, regarding Karl:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2004

...KARL BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1150
MILES...1850 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INFRA-RED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KARL
IS JUST COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND A DECREASE IN
WIND SPEED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS FORECAST FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE
BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N... 41.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN


DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:49 PM
Re: A question please

Yea, I am getting an idea of what your saying. I will have to watch this and see it happen.
Thanks!


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:49 PM
Camille

THere's one more historical reference for keeping a rejuvinated storm's name......Hurricane Camille.
That monster pulled a track very similar to Ivan...exiting off the eastern seaboard and reintensifying to a 60 mph tropical storm...


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:49 PM
Jeanne/Ivan

The 5 weather underground models all show Jeanne moving back to the west between 26 and 27 North. How they differ is the longitude it occurs at. The longitude is between 67 and 77 West. Looks like Ivan has pulled down much drier air into North and Central Florida. Dew points in the 50's and 60's there. Still sky high 70's down here. I hope it is a nice relief for those of you still without power. We had dime size hail here today.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:52 PM
Re: Jeanne/Ivan

The dry air is nice here. Have had a nice mid 60's dewpoint all day for the first time since, I think, May.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:53 PM
Re: Jeanne/Ivan

I'm outta here!

This is ridiiculous!

Coop...good luck


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:53 PM
Re: Karl

Yeah. The new discussion mentions the new center, and slight northward motion, but doesn't clearly mention whether the fix is definitively on the new center, the old one, or perhaps between (the phrase 'elongated' was used, perhaps relating the two centers together). I've been completely baffled whenever I've tried to watch any sat loops of this thing today, and frankly I'm surprised it wasn't downgraded again.

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 10:59 PM
Re: Jeanne/Ivan

seeing as how I AM between 26-27 N and your home town of Boynton Beach is what? about 27.5 or so?

where do you think Jeanne is gonna go?

We are 80W. You say 67-77W but then where? North?

still confused ....6 weeks and counting now!


MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:10 PM
Re: Karl

I was surprised today when the LLC got exposed, then the next update reported finding a new center. I have not looked as closely on this as when Ivan or Frances were around, but my first look at the IR sat pic, and I thought "that looks more like an ULL"
My guess is that the models are going to have a difficult time initializing a center, at least for now, which will make the output even shakier.
Talk about a weather change, early afternoon here in NJ it was 76, dew point 73, when a heavy shower came through, then it was 65 with NE winds gusting to 30 within a half hour or so. It is now 59 with a dew point of 54.
I only got about .85" out of it, although Eastern PA got 6" in spots, doppler est.
A strong deformation zone formed, and concentrated heavy rain there almost all day. It actually had more of an extratropical feel to the weather here today.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:11 PM
Re: Jeanne/Ivan

It is really hard to tell where Jeanne is going to go. It looks like she may going in a loop to the east and then come back west. There are way too many questions to say where Jeanne may hit land or even a longitude at this time. [Assuming she does even hit land]. As of right now, it appears she will threaten nothing but fish and boats for the next few days.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:12 PM
Re: Jeanne/Ivan

Hi Kent,

You are at 26.1 N. and I am at 26.5 N. I don't think anyone can predict this storm. It might become a hurricane and it might die out. It might move N, E, W and maybe even S. This gal is crazy. Who knows? We may be threatened by her next weekend. Why not? Every weekend in September we have been threatened by a hurricane. Why not make it 4 for 4 to end the month.


Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:18 PM
Re: Jeanne/Ivan

Could you try to scale that back a little ... one, somewhat worry free weekend would not hurt anyone .

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:20 PM
Re: Jeanne/Ivan

The one thing I can say with almost absolute certainty about this storm is that if if does all these stalls and loops straight out from our coast then we will most assurdedly get waves from it and maybe even for a long time. Spock , your weather conditions today kind of reminded me of one of our winter days after a front passes thru. Good night everyone.

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:22 PM
Re: Jeanne/Ivan

LOL WXMAN Richie

Am I sensing some of that "hurricane stress" we keep hearing about down here?

I hear ya and I am right there with you my friend.

Thanks for trying to explain Jeanne. As I said earlier I picked the worst possible time to try and understand hurricanes.

sigh


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 11:29 PM
Re: Jeanne/Ivan

Well, if you guys want a bad sign for next weekend. I have a Directv TIVO that was supposed to be installed the last month. First Saturday it was scheduled, Charley came. I rescheduled for the weekend before Labor Day. Frances came a calling. Well, I rescheduled the install last week. It is scheduled for Saturday. I hope I am not going to strike out! :?:

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:30 AM
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan

Karl will be way too far to the east when it recurves and goes extratropical to have an impact on Jeanne. Maybe it'll pump up one of the ridges in the Atlantic, but more likely the one near Africa/Europe than anything.

Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones is a process that is only partially understood now. There are many identifying signs: the cloud pattern becomes asymmetric and more representative of a midlatitude system, the SW portion of the eye begins to collapse, the wind field expands away from the center, and the center of the storm transitions from a warm core to cold core (at the surface & aloft) -- among other things. The exact timeline and path that these transitions storms undergo is still under research as well as identifying characteristics that can help better forecast the transition and impacts of transitioning storms along the coastline.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:40 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

In regards to the Willoughby stuff posted -- the closest things I can think of to that in regards to the multiple low-level centers are the mesovortices exhibited in the centers of very strong hurricanes. Often, around the larger center, you can see 3-8 small vortices rotating around the larger center. Occasionally, this phenomenon occurs near an eyewall replacement cycle, but it is not necessarily a precursor to one (meaning what I am trying to say is that the two really aren't coorelated). Isabel exhibited this, as did Frances and Ivan.

In regards to the paper posted about binary interaction of tropical cyclones -- if I'm not mistaken, that is more the interaction between two separate tropical cyclones instead of two distinct vortices within the same circulation envelope/system. There's only a small amount of research on the latter problem. Whenever I think of this scenario, though, I'm reminded of a starfish pattern of vortices rotating in tandem with each other in the central Atlantic one year about 5-6 years ago. Really weird to see, but pretty interesting. And it does occur more than it may seem.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:44 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Kent -- it's very likely at that time that Edna was undergoing extratropical transition at the time. Without satellite to confirm, there's no way to know exactly what was going on, but my best educated guess would be that the center of the system, while still a vigorous low, had become elongated as it was becoming extratropical.

The wind field expansion, as noted in the link that you provided, provides further evidence of the transition idea. It's not really likely to ever see a tropical cyclone with gale force winds outward up to 400mi from the center; that's much, much more common with midlatitude storms, however. And, that the strongest winds were not near the center at all gives further evidence of this as well.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:48 AM
Re: JB?

MrSpock -- as long as it can be traced back to Ivan, whether that be through a tropical wave (like Bonnie's regeneration), mid-level vortex & vorticity maximum, or some other means of continuity between the two systems, I believe the NHC would rename the system Ivan. Even if a storm goes extratropical and then becomes tropical again (very rare), they keep the name. Only if they change basins without maintaining themselves at least as depressions or if the main system completely dies and a new system forms that might be related to the old one (but evidence is lacking) would the storm get a new name.

That said...I don't get the feeling Ivan is going back towards the Gulf, thankfully.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:51 AM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

Jack Williams is a rather famous meteorologist/author who has written or cowritten a number of books, primarily aimed at introducing meteorology to the layman/general public. He recently (2004) won an award (along with Bob Sheets) from the Amer. Meteorological Society for his last book, of which the title escapes me but (obviously) had something to do with hurricanes.

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:58 AM
Re: JB?

Thanks Clark, this has been a very "up in the air issue" tonight, let alone all season. Looking back it seems to be a very "scant" area.. I have not even tried to look into it... too tired and too much going both ways... thanks again!

Coop


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:21 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Clark
Thank you so much! You are very good at explaining things. Are you a teacher too?

and I miss Bob Sheets by the way.

and last one I promise....Did you see my post that ended up in the forum called "other storm basins"?

It's also about this supposed two eye thing
here';s the link to the article:
http://www.phschool.com/science/planetdiary/archive03/cycl1090503.html

http://www.phschool.com/science/planetdiary/archive03/cycl1090503.html


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:31 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Thanks -- no, I'm not. I'm still completing studies in meteorology at the graduate level, but aim to become a researcher & professor some day. The first part has already happened, the second will come down the road.

I did see the post in the other forum, but do not know enough about the situation to really make a comment. The data in the other storm suggested a storm neaing extratropical status; this one is obviously a tropical cyclone. It could have been two of those mesovortices becoming strong enough to become self-sufficient with their own eyewalls and everything, but that's just a guess on my part. That whole field is certainly something that needs further studies.


DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:25 AM
Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong

I looked this book up, "Hurricane Watch" by Jack Williams and Bob Sheets. Random House published and also listed is "The USA Today Weather Book". Both are sold at Barnes and Nobles.
Thank you again, I have been wanting a book to help me understand things said here!! Ya'll are always talking over my head, kinda.


LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 05:40 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Jeanne is not done yet. Look at the 5 am track from the NWS.

Jeanne


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 06:02 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Please excuse the Tangential thinking on an early Sunday morning, but is that the lightbulb going off/on that lets every one know that Jeanne is thinking about her next move? If not, the pattern drawn sure looks like one to me. Just reaching for some explanation that is not as scientific as it is an anthropromorphism.

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:42 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

This morning's forecasted track is the most bizarre I think I've seen. Looks like Jeanne is going to....go in circles? I think Ivan had a bigger eye than Jeanne has forecasted track. :?:

LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:55 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

She still has a chance to take a trip to Florida. Only time will tell. No one not even her knows where she is going. I think she is drunk....:)


Quote:

Please excuse the Tangential thinking on an early Sunday morning, but is that the lightbulb going off/on that lets every one know that Jeanne is thinking about her next move? If not, the pattern drawn sure looks like one to me. Just reaching for some explanation that is not as scientific as it is an anthropromorphism.




MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:39 AM
Re: JB?

Thanks for the answer.
The question in my mind was that it could be quite subjective. If all you have a small piece of energy, then what?
usually when the issue comes up, it has been a weak TD or something that goes back to an open wave, which is much more clear-cut.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:45 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Bizarre but not uncommon.... if that track comes to fruition, it might end up very similar to the track that Hurricane Betsy took in 1965, that pummeled south Florida and eventually on to New Oreans as a Cat 3 and a direct hit... now I'm not saying that this is what Jeanne is going to do, but loops in themselves are not that uncommen.... just something else for the poor people of Florida to worry about

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:46 AM
Re: Karl

In regard to the remnats of Ivan, the strong thunderstorms that came to Long Island and the NJ area where more tropical warm front that anything else that I have seen. As the moisture hit the land, it "bombed", somehow it encouraged convection in the clouds. It looked like a hurricane was here, my front tree fell down and we had partial melted hail. Also the reason why it was a tropical warm front, the temps increased, as opposed to a thunderstorm thats the atmosphere cools because of latent heat

DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:30 AM
Attachment
Re: Karl

Okay, I hate the graphic program. My adobe is on my mac where I am not hooked up to the internet. So please do not judge the graphic. it is horrible. In attempt to learn from what I was told yesterday, in this WV you can see Karl just coming into the picture. Am I seeing the trough clearly that will turn him north?? Soon?? and that box herberts box...someones box...the one that if a cane goes through it, it will hit SFla, isnt that in front of Karl somewhere?? Delete if this is just too stupid, but am I reading this right?
I have bought Williams book, but it will not be here for 8-10 days.
Thanks for the teaching guys.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:41 AM
Re: Karl

You got the basic idea that trough is an area of disturbed weather but for you can connect the isobars (area's of equal pressure) you need buoy readings. Most of the upper level air features are found at the 500 mb level because pretty much that's were they reside. So you can see the trough at a 500 mb level.
Here's an excellent website in teaching some basic things from geopontential heights to hurricanes ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fw/geos.rxml
Just click online guides and choose the topic of your choice.

Edit: Just copy and paste don't add "www" or "com"


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:49 AM
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep

Lost my password during the registration process. Yes I do care about RickonBoat and all of this online community. I was relieved to find Frank okay though. Again thanks for all you do Phil on here.

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:51 AM
Re: Karl

That's definittely a trough, associated with Ivan, that you can see dangling in front of Jeanne, which will be responsible for edging her north before the high swoops downand loops her back. It doesn't show up on all the models, but I'd also assume that's a trough rolling away from Jeanne towards Karl. Most of the models show Karl turning north from the interaction with a large high north and east of Karl off Europe, as well as with the general rotation of Jeanne.

I'm still quite new to this, but that's what I gathered from watching the model loops.


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:58 AM
Re: Karl

A google search for "hurricane box Florida" turns up this page for the Hebert Box. It's an interesting read, but pay close attention to the disclaimers down at the bottom.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:01 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Ed for what it is worth............this is the only place where I can get a lot of useful information all in one shot. Keep up the great work to the moderators and the other posters.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:07 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Frank it is great to see you made it safely.

I had a rotten feeling about Jeanne on Friday night even after reading that it supposedly was going to be a minimal problem. Had one of those way frightening dreams about Jeanne and today pull this site up and she is making a u turn towards Florida. Reminds of me a cockroach I was trying to kill in the garage that no matter how badly it was wounded, it kept creeping a long and going in circles. I took a much needed break yesterday from watching storm tracks. Again so glad you are okay.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:21 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

thanks redbird, me and my two bassets weathered the storm just fine, I think they slept through the whole thing..... and I really appreciate your concern,, and also the great information that I got from the board during my "to evacuate, or not to evacuate" ordeal.... it was just fantastic support

we along the MS coast was VERY fortunate..... had Ivan continued on that NNW course, we would be experiencing the devastation along our coast.... Ivan was a tremendous storm, one for the records for sure.... I am still trying to get the official storm surge.... I have heard unofficial reports ranging from 15-30 feet.... that's a tremendous amount of surge... my best guess would be in the lower to mid 20's, but the wave heights also added to the tremendous damage... this storm surge was not typical for a Cat 3 storm..

as for Jeanne who knows what she is going to do, latest model runs are a little disturbing, but we have plenty of time to monitor her progress.... I'd hate to see a repeat of the Betsy track from 65, but its still way to early to tell.... but just having her where she is and all the unknowns in itself must be most stressing to the floridians who have taken way more hits than they deserve .... maybe she'll just fade away and die off... now wouldn't that be great for all....


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:30 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

15-20 storm surge, wasn't Camille's like 26 feet. Wow, your dogs slept through that, my dog hides himself deep in a closet when it's lighting, I sometimes have trouble finding him. Glad that your okay, your a great poster.

Today's model run's are quite disturbing for Florida at least. They have that ridge building around it and then there's a weakness and it's goes right to it's target Florida. Anytime you have a ridge build around a storm the ridge helps the outflow but usually makes the storm suck up some dry air. This is very simliar to that track of Betsy and some Dennis too, once that ridge breaks these storms zoom out of there so be prepared for an unexpected hit.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:39 AM
Karl

Karl looks very impressive on sat, very strong convection almost everywhere, does anyone think it has a shot at CAT 5, I think it does.

Jeanne looks like she's trying to close the circulation but covection seems to be firing up on the east vector of the storm, maybe we'll have another LLC form there. Today it looks like it will do some strengthing. It will continue to follow that trough out to sea until the ridge builds.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:42 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

For those who are concerned about us in Florida. We appreciate your thoughts and prayers. I would like to comment that although this has been a terrible hurricane season for Florida from hits, the good side of this is that people are now aware that it can happen, WILL happen, has happened and CAN happen again. It is unfortunate that it took this kind of a wake up call for people to realize the truth. The good in all of this is people are staying prepared. A lot of people in my area, Inland, have decided to leave their cane preps up until the season is over. They have taken down just a few boards to let the light in and that is all. It is refreshing to see bottled water in crates sitting in the store in appropriate places so that this will not be a start from scratch event if indeed we do have to do it again. I just checked the pix and Jeanne is starting to resemble a tropical entity again.I noticed some kids beginning to prepare for halloween, I wonder if more kids will come dressed as hurricanes, than political figures this year....scary! Some one I was talking to yesterday commented that there was not one single area of Florida that had not been directly effected by a hurricane this year, even if the damage was not overly terrible. I lost a total of 4 shingles, and some dead branches(small ones) and raked and mulched a lot of green leaves. I was very lucky. In answer to some one's question as to whether Florida has a bull's eye on it this year. I am thinking that the answer is yes. Charley and Frances crossed each other's path and Ivan drew his own., We only need one more different path directly across Central Florida to have all possible landfalls covered this year. 3 times is the charm. Let's hope that karl does not get a taste for orange juice.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:43 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Keith, I looked at the model spread, and almost all take it well out to sea. Which ones were threatening Fla.?

DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:46 AM
Re: Karl

That is an awesome site, thank you very much
Keith: Anytime you have a ridge build around a storm the ridge helps the outflow but usually makes the storm suck up some dry air. This is very simliar to that track of Betsy and some Dennis too, once that ridge breaks these storms zoom out of there so be prepared for an unexpected hit

Dear God you know how to scare the c*%p outta me. Do you really see the potential for this happening and what do we watch for to fore see, (as much as this crazy weather will allow), this happening. I am ending my summer term next week and have finals Mon - Thurs. I can not miss anymore time from school or I will lose my 4.0.
(pulling hair)


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:47 AM
Re: Karl

Keith, I think the official surge for Camille was around 25 to 26 feet, with some area's claiming a little unofficial higher...

I had 22 feet at my house.... and I was 25 miles east of the center of the storm... Jeanne does look a little better on the vis sat pix at the moment..


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:48 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

I got to stop using Accuweather.com for the models, they didn't update them. I'll be editing that post. Thanks

Edit: Looked at the new model runs, your right Mr. Spock most of them have it going out to see, the GFS I think is one of them. I wouldn't trust that one but it may be right. The UKMET has the ridge building over Jeanne and the simliar situation that I said.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:52 AM
Re: Karl

That could happen, but when I looked at the models the website didn't update them, I was seeing model runs from yesterday afternoon. But yes that could happen, the models are going to constantly change, so don't be surprised if one model run points at Bremuda and the next has it going into the GOM.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:56 AM
Storm Surge

Hey Frank,

Our newspaper this morning says the surge was an estimated 30 feet. Not sure where they got that from though. I don't think it could be higher than Camille which was 26 feet.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:03 AM
Re: Storm Surge

I read a report out of the Pensacola area that the waves in escambia bay were 35 feet. I don't know if that is a storm surge or just wind effects, but that is a bay!! for gosh sakes..ioui

FelixPuntaGorda
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:03 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Thank you for this site -- I sincerely wish I had found it before Charley.

I have a question about Jeanne & the loop that she might make. At the expected location of that loop, would crossing over her own track make a difference in her strength? And would it be a different result if a loop happened in the GOM?


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:14 AM
Re: Karl

New forecast / discussion is up for Jeanne, it pretty much echoes what we can see on sat (more organized circulation, but no substantial central convection yet). They're still stumped on this one

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:14 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Frank you were 25 miles east of the center you said? I thought you lived in Ms?

clueless
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:16 AM
Just don't get Jeanne

Okay I know that you all have explained how this loop will happen, but I don't get it - could you explain it in little words so that I am sure to understand. Here is what I don't get
1. Why in the world would it go in a loop at all.
2. How come the loop is the forecast when none of the models from which I think I understand the forecasted track to come show anything like a loop.
3. Someone just said that despite the loop the storm won't come to FL even though it is pointed straight at us - Ubby says it looks like it is getting off the turnpike and heading on vacation. What will turn it before it gets to us.

I kind of understand the general nature of troughs and fronts - troughs pull a storm and fronts push and turn it - I think - but beyond that I am clueless (hence the handle)


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:17 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Richie storm surge was about 12 ft ( abouts) but with the wave action of up to 18 ft,, that would make it 30 ft.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:17 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Quote:

Thank you for this site -- I sincerely wish I had found it before Charley.

I have a question about Jeanne & the loop that she might make. At the expected location of that loop, would crossing over her own track make a difference in her strength? And would it be a different result if a loop happened in the GOM?



Welcome aboard, I hope the healing is beginning in Punta Gorda.
Jeanne probably isn't generating a whole lot of upwelling, with her current low strength. The upwelling is normally only a factor for the very strong storms, which I don't think Jeanne would be expected to attain. There is some residual from cooler water from Frances, but that is fading as time goes by.

So, no, I doubt it would effect Jeanne's strength, but I wouldn't expect Jeanne to be much more than a Cat 2.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:19 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Quote:

15-20 storm surge, wasn't Camille's like 26 feet. Wow, your dogs slept through that, my dog hides himself deep in a closet when it's lighting, I sometimes have trouble finding him. Glad that your okay, your a great poster.

Today's model run's are quite disturbing for Florida at least. They have that ridge building around it and then there's a weakness and it's goes right to it's target Florida. Anytime you have a ridge build around a storm the ridge helps the outflow but usually makes the storm suck up some dry air. This is very simliar to that track of Betsy and some Dennis too, once that ridge breaks these storms zoom out of there so be prepared for an unexpected hit.




LOL. Sorry, Keith laughing with you not at you. You sound like my management. Can we plan our unscheduled events for the next six month?


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:19 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Clueless,,,the models have been showing a loop. Also there is a strong ridge building now over the eastern U.S. Circulation around this ridge is clockwise so since the remenents are on the east side it will go south then sw then w ,,,just like clock work.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:23 AM
thank you neil frank

because i was a small girl down here in miami while he reinged as hurricane king and he drove home the point constantly to the point where at times he was treated by cynics like chicken little pointing to storm surge but he was right.. it was always his big deal, his biggest concern that people living along the coast realize the danger of storm surge.

So... as much as i love hurricanes, love to track them, am in awe of their beauty on the satellite, afraid of their power which is akin to nuclear bombs being dropped at landfall of such a strong storm...

I am never unaware that a storm surge can wash it all away in any given big storm.

And..if I ever did live on the water.. I would do it knowing that in an instant, in a once in a lifetime storm surge it could all be washed away.

This is a great site..so are others like hurricanecity that specializes in education and many online... but most of all I am happy I was never given any false sense of security that buildings built along the shore or near the shore cant be washed away in a strong storm.

Remember the night before Andrew driving around Miami Beach taking one last look because I thought after Andrew Miami Beach would look like Sullivans Island after Hugo or those beautiful white sand beaches after Ivan.

Glad people can be informed here.. really glad cause Neil is no longer running the show at NHC screaming Storm Surge, Storm Surge and maybe someone should be.


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:23 AM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Weather Underground has a nice model summary, showing a few of the most recent runs of the stronger models. While they do spread all over the place, they are consistent in that they bring Jeanne North and East for the time being, befor the high swings down behind Ivan and kicks it back to the west (you can see this clearly in the NOGAPS and UKMET runs, and to a different extent on the other models). Since there's only two days at this point that the models agree on, that's the only thing the NHC is forecasting with any confidence (which explains the 'blob of uncertainty' for the 4-5 day positions).

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:28 AM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Speaking of time frames, what's the time frame on the loop heading Jeanne back to Florida. My kitten has a Vet appointment for Thursday morning this week to have her social standing removed.

Heather
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:34 AM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Has Ivan made it back to sea? If a hurricane starts as an area of storm activity over warm water, then Ivan really could become reenergized?

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:34 AM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

The NHC must be pulling hair, I would. They have it doing loops, prob. the hardest thing to do on a 5 day forecast map they may need a bigger eraser. The model runs from weather underground look like lines to me, that's why I like to see the storm actually moving and where the wind and rain take place. I have been noticing that models have been developing the right side more than the left, when you look up close at a fine-mesh model. I think they associate greater wind speed with a stronger rain and a lower pressure when it is really just the foward motion created by the motion of the storm. Unless I am totally wrong and models just like to develop the right side of hurricanes more then the left.

javlin
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:39 AM
Re: What's behind Karl?

Just happened to notice it a little while ago probably nothing staying strong on the convection side thou.

FelixPuntaGorda
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:41 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Thank you, StormHound. I never thought I would say that I'm glad we faced Charley, but now that I've seen Ivan's destruction, I am so thankful to be here in Punta Gorda. We are still facing huge piles of debris, which is depressing. There aren't many signs of rebuilding yet. But it will happen.

Our Emergency Director here, Wayne Sallade, always preaches storm surge, along with keeping the wind out of your home. Most of Punta Gorda is at 12 feet elevation or less, I believe. Being at the top of Charlotte Harbor, I don't think we'd have the waves to deal with. But surge alone would be enough.


KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:44 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Felix - where are you in Punta Gorda? Our Collier County EM Director, Dan Summers, also preaches surge and has made everyone aware of it and its consequences. We were spared because Charley was a "small" (though extremely powerful) storm in comparison to Frances and Ivan.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:46 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

ZZZZZZZZZZZ out of soo much frustration over the last 3 years I had to email Gary Gray and tell him hes not doing a good forecasting job and had to give him a few tips on the dynamics of the overall pattern envirioment which would support different models and consistancys. I mean I told him his posts on summering the model runs are nice but his forecasts need adjustments instead of guesses. Oh well I wont go into detail.

FelixPuntaGorda
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:46 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

I'm in Punta Gorda Isles, on a canal, about 1/4 mile from the harbor. Our house is at 9.5 feet.

Terri
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:47 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Quote:

thanks redbird, me and my two bassets weathered the storm just fine, I think they slept through the whole thing..... and I really appreciate your concern,, and also the great information that I got from the board during my "to evacuate, or not to evacuate" ordeal.... it was just fantastic support




For what it's worth, Frank, I got down on my knees and prayed for all of you folks that would surely be affected by Ivan. What else can a person do but that? Glad to hear that you and your bassets made it through the storm unscathed. Normally I lurk at this site because you fine folks are talking way over my head, but hey, I'm learning and quickly, too!. I am in complete awe of ALL of your skills, truly. Hopefully, one day in the not too distant future I'll be able to speak the lingo and understand it, as well. This hurricane season has been the strangest that I can recall in my 40+ years young. I certainly hope Joe B is wrong about the projected path of Jeanne because I'm going to get nailed if he's right. No doubt about the fact that Jeanne is a woman, though. She's as unpredictable as the rest of us. LOL Also, thank you for your mail welcoming me, Frank. I do appreciate it. I do hope that the check I just mailed to Mike will somehow help to keep this site up and running and aid in procuring any upgrades that may be needed. I count on you guys and gals to post possible scenarios. It really does help me to plan my course of action, should your predictions come true. Here's a big thanks from me to all of you. Being 100 feet from the Ogeechee River's edge, located on a small island, and being 10 minutes from the ocean "as the crow flies", I'm watching this unpredictable Lady Jeanne carefully.


KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:52 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

The company I work for is getting ready to open a sales office at the end of West Marion and had a food tent, so I was there a few times. How did you fare? I also wish I had found this site before Charley.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:52 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Ok Jeanne getting alot better organized at the surface. The circulation is alot better defined and she now has nice outflow in 3 of the 4 quardrents. If this continues she could be up to 60-70mph by later tonight if she organzies more convection around the center. Movement continues to be around 355dg. Recon will be there in a couple hours and will give us a update on the pressure. I do believe they will find her a bit stronger at the least. Not sure though if the report will be out by the 2pm update but will by 5pm.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:54 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

ZZZZz no 2pm update as they were droped, so 5pm update they will adjust her with the recon.

FelixPuntaGorda
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:55 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

KC, we can PM each other if you set your account to accept private messages.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:55 AM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Thankyou for your compliments on everyone. The GA coast doesn't normally get hit with storms because of the way it's shaped, it's indentured and the only way you could get a direct hit is if the hurricane was pointed at a straight line to you. Best of wishes in all your endeavors!

clueless
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:00 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

wow the models I was looking at were from BoatUs and they are all pretty straight - apparently not the most up to doat place to check

Make that up to DATE

Thank you all for your help - just trying to get a clue little by little


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:07 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Convection is firing up all around the storm, outflow has become more pronounced and is the storm is rapidly strengthing and the shear has decreasd, we will be back in hurricane status today if this continues.

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:09 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Scottsvb,

Look at this WV Loop, what do you think that ridge will do to Jeanne's current northward movement?


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:12 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Quote:

Clueless,,,the models have been showing a loop. Also there is a strong ridge building now over the eastern U.S. Circulation around this ridge is clockwise so since the remenents are on the east side it will go south then sw then w ,,,just like clock work.




Computer models? I thought the forecaster was trying to sign the tracking map.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:14 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

It just matters on how much of a jog w she gets before her loop. Models are showing the ridge will hang more over the eastern U.S. instead of off the coast so then they want to move her eventually slowly out to sea. I think she will hang around 70w then move back after a brief loop. Hard to tell the dark side is, isnt it???? Like Yoda would say!

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:17 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Quote:

Scottsvb,

Look at this WV Loop, what do you think that ridge will do to Jeanne's current northward movement?



\
Short term it may nudge it NNE or NE until the ridge flattens out some, but I think it is already stalling it. Could eventually start a slow SW or WSW movement. I think we are all in the same boat as the NHC, meaning, we have no idea.


poetdi
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:18 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

I'm a clueless newbie too - picked a heck of a time to learn about hurricanes - guess living in Central Florida gives one a false sense of security - or should I say GAVE us a false sense - no more! At any rate, I watched Steve Lyons about an hour ago and he showed the remnants of Ivan flowing down the east coast and Jeanne out there - my question is will Ivan's remnants have anything to do with Jeanne's path? I know there are lots of other factors involved (thanks for this site, again, so we can all learn!) - but will Ivan still affect Jeanne?

Poetdi


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:18 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Thanks,

I'm still skeptical she will ever be a threat to the US, but I'm not even going to attempt to predict where she's going.

Ivan? Have we heard from his remnants lately?

Karl...why can't they all behave like him? Beautiful CAT IV to spin the fish!


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:30 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Quote:

Thanks,

I'm still skeptical she will ever be a threat to the US, but I'm not even going to attempt to predict where she's going.

Ivan? Have we heard from his remnants lately?

Karl...why can't they all behave like him? Beautiful CAT IV to spin the fish!




With the way this season has gone, I won't relax on Karl until he starts that NW - NNW turn.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 12:44 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

I can assure you that Karl isn't going to be a threat to the US. That TUTT is very strong and there gives me no reason to believe that the TUTT would weaken that much that it would allow Karl to go on his NW course, I'm 75% sure.

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:01 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Fletch,

You're absolutely right, with the way this season is going! Still, Karl is behaving textbook...Jeanne, on the other hand, makes forecasting Ivan look like child's play...

Loopy she is...loopy.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:05 PM
Karl's Affect on Jeanne

I can't help but notice that the models are showing the remnants of Ivan breaking through that Azores ridge in the Atlantic and then Karl following through. Now why don't the models show Jeanne following Karl and the remnants of Ivan to that big low by Greenland, wouldn't Jeanne get handed off from one upper air feature to the other?

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:11 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Quote:

Fletch,

You're absolutely right, with the way this season is going! Still, Karl is behaving textbook...Jeanne, on the other hand, makes forecasting Ivan look like child's play...

Loopy she is...loopy.




Should have been named Sybil!!


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:24 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

It depends on how long Jeanne sits over that loop as well as how deep the warm waters are in that part of the ocean. A day or two won't make a huge difference, but longer than that will. A shallowewr depth of the warm waters would lead to a lesser amount of time before the storm begins to be negatively affected by upwelling of colder waters.

For an example of what can happen in the Gulf with a looping storm, see Roxanne of 1995. That storm hung around there for nearly a week, able to maintain itself for awhile but eventually weakened and moved into Mexico. The NHC preliminary report on the storm is available here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995roxanne.html


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:29 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

A storm may wobble in a loop on its own accord when steering currents are weak, or may traverse a loop when the steering currents are forecasted to change. For instance, say Jeanne begins to travel north and then northeast as a trough picks it up. But, the trough then moves away without completely picking up Jeanne and a ridge builds in over the storm. This would tend to shift the storm back west, but may result in a loop to do so -- due to the prior movement and speed of the storm (think momentum), it can't simply stop on a dime and turn west.

And really, there's no one out there who can definitively say this storm will not affect Florida -- or any landmass out there, for that matter.

As an aside, when the models offer wildly diverging options -- think of the tracks spreading out in a pattern like a spider -- the course of least regret is to forecast a slow motion through the forecast period. This pattern usually happens when none (or few) of the models are getting a good handle on the storm -- and with a weak storm trying to reform like Jeanne, this certainly qualifies.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:30 PM
Wxman Richie, Scott, Terri

Wxman RIchie, I also read reports of a 30 foot storm surge and heard them mention this high of a surge on TV reports as well, yet to be confirmed IMO.... but trust me, it was tremendous... I guess it doesn't matter if its 20 feet or so, if you have 10-20 foot waves added to it.... still catastrophic, no question about it, from what I've seen on TV, the damage inflicted by Ivan's surge is eerily similar to what I remember from Camille.... it just didn't do the wind damage that Camille did....

Scott, the eye of Camille went into western coastal cities of Bay St. Louis and the Pass Christian areas ... that is approximately 25 miles west of my house, thus I was in the right/east quad of Camille... I'm in the central part of the MS coast.... Biloxi, a wonderful place to live on the beach...

Terri, thanks for the prayers... this is a great web site... I just got home from mass, everyone was counting their blessing along the coast in MS... we dodge a 44 magnum bullet with this one... I almost feel guilty because we went unscathed, and poor eastern AL and the FL panhandle has been devastated...

some of the stories coming out of the panhandle for those who rode out the storm are unbelievable... still 14 or so unaccounted for at the moment


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:37 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

Other factors have to be considered as well -- is there enough organization to the activity? Are upper-level conditions favorable for regeneration (low shear)? What about sea-surface temperatures? Is there dry air in the mid-levels to inhibit strengthening? And, ofr storms exiting off of the coast, how much of the remnant storm is left that can reorganize again? There are more factors, so these are just a sample.

With Ivan, there is a preponderance of dry air in the region (resulting in some very nice weather in the southeast, I might add!) and upper-level conditions are not particularly favorable for redevelopment. Plus, the remnant circulation isn't in great shape and water temperatures off of the Delmarva, where it exited land, are not particularly high (warm, yes, but marginally sufficient).

It's a moot point, though, as the remnant storm is exiting off to the northeast into the maritimes as an extratropical system. I think we've seen the last of Ivan, thankfully.

As another aside, the high building in behind Ivan is giving those up and won the eastern seaboard a taste of winter -- somewhat of a cold-air damming event. The cloud cover isn't there, thankfully, but temperatures are chilly for this time of year into the Carolinas. Later in winter, if something like this set up (a bit further to the east and stronger, though)...it'd be downright cold all the way to the Gulf coast, with highs struggling to reach 50 even here in north Florida on occasion.

But back to hurricane season...


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:39 PM
And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Check this out:
A cool idea how to stop hurricanes-
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/accent/epaper/2004/09/19/a1d_ron_col_0919.html


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:39 PM
Re: Just don't get Jeanne

The right side of hurricanes does tend to develop more than the left-hand side. It's not always a factor of the forward motion contributing to higher wind speeds on the right hand side of the motion. Gulf storms take this to an extreme -- often times, most of the convection and heavy rains are found on the north and east sides of the storm. Ivan is not an exception.

The fine-mesh mesoscale models are relatively new entities and are still being developed and worked on as time progresses. They are used moreso for research purposes - such as modeling convection - than for track and intensity forecasting (though that may be where we are headed down the line).


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:43 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

cool, literally.... now what would happen if you set up these louvers to draw the cool water to the surface, and then the hurricance changed directions... outside the envelope of the louver setup.... but sure as hell beats the idea of dropping a nuclear bomb into one, which has to be the dumbest idea of all time...

fact is hurricanes will be around long after all of us are gone... and we don't want to fool around with mother nature...


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:44 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Well, it's indented...not really indentured, unless it's in the services of someone else or is actually indenting something!

I digress.

Georgia can get a storm hit from a storm not directly pointed at it, but any hit on the state is rare. Plus, ultimately, a storm making landfall somewhere has to be pointed at that place at some given point in time. In any case, while rare, there are cases where a storm paralleled the Florida coast and turned NW into Georgia, as well as cases where the storm traveled directly into Georgia.

The coastline is so small and shaped in such a peculiar manner as to make landfalls there rare, however.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:48 PM
Re: Karl's Affect on Jeanne

Because the remnants of Ivan are too far to the north and the trough not expected to dive far enough south to have a significant (note how I didn't say no) impact on the future track of the storm.

The system to pick up Karl is already in place there -- an upper-low to its west -- though it may become enhanced just slightly by the remnant trough from Ivan departing the eastern seaboard. Or, the trough from Ivan may ride up and over the ridge (almost a Rex block-type of pattern)...it remains to be seen. Bottom line though, Karl is one for the fishes.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:49 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

I don't think people should be trying to stop hurricanes, they are a natural process and should not be tampered by man. That being said, towing icebergs to lower the temp of the water is not a good idea, first of all that could upset the whole currents in the ocean, changing the prevailing wind currents and who knows what else, this would also kill the fish and oceanic wildlife. If we are going to try and destroy a hurricane why don't we consider the side affects. This is one topic I strongly disagree with!

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:53 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Richie,

Funny article man! Yanks 2 Pedro 0


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 01:57 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

The theory is the closest to being sound that I have heard, but I doubt it would work. A 10mi x 10mi wide region is only a very small fraction of a hurricane and would likely have a negligible effect. Cold water is denser than warm water, I do believe, so the colder water is going to tend to sink back down to the surface. If it didn't, you risk affecting/damaging the ecosystem of the ocean there -- certain plants and fish depend on particular temperatures of water -- unless you had some way of reversing it on its own.

But, at the very least, it's better than the other ideas I've heard. Dynagel...argh. And the idea of dropping water-absorbent material from the air into the storm itself -- well, that cuts off evaporative cooling due to precipitation, which may well lead to warming inside the storm enhancing the warm core; at the very least, it certainly won't cause the shear it's inventor wanted to creare. Don't want to enhance the storm...


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:00 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

What if you dropped a material that cleaned water, taking away the salt so there would be no condesation nuclei?

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:01 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

I think we may be drifting off here a little...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
Looking a little better..


tpratch
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:16 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Quote:

What if you dropped a material that cleaned water, taking away the salt so there would be no condestation nuclei?




Water evaporates regardless of salt content.


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:23 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

What are "condesdation nuclei"?

tpratch
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:27 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Quote:

What are "condesdation nuclei"?



"condesdation(sic) nuclei" are impurities in the water from which evaporation happens.

In the ocean, they can be formed from the waste of plankton, or simply be microscopic impurities of any kind. Due to salt's lattice nature, I don't feel it's a likely suspect.

YMMV, SPSFD.

Besides, restricting evaporation means forcing water to get warmer - not colder.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:32 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Since the NHC is not offering a two o'clock advisory on the Entity named Jeanne, I will try my hand at it:
ON AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGRY, TROPICAL ENTITY JEANNE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED AT 24.8 (9) OR 25.0 AND 72.5 OR 6. THE ENTITY APPEARS TO BE HEADING IN A NNN DIRECTION. THE ENTITY APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST ONE BAND DEVELOPING IN THE NW OUTFLOW, WITH A FAIRLY GOOD SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW.

THE INITALIZING MODELS ARE OUT TO LUNCH AND WILL RETURN AT 5:00PM TO GIVE AN UPDATE.
Disclaimer: no meterologist jobs were threatened in the creation of this summary.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:34 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Sorry you can delete this post once it has served it's purpose. Yes water does evaporate regardless of it's contents but something has to act as condensation nuclei because water has to overcome surface tension . Now for clouds to form ice in microscopic forms it has to very cold infact that cold hardly never exists. Now over the ocean tiny salt particles exist in the air as condensation nuclei, if these were removed rain would never occur in a hurricane and condenstation at that too. Not having condensation would drastically reduce the amount of heat in hurricanes as they are fueled by latent heat and convection would not occur. When condensation occurs I believe 570 calories of heat are sent into the atmosphere, that's a lot of heat and evaporatation takes away 70 calories. Just a little infomation on why it rains, I find it very interesting.

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:35 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

What's "condenstation"?

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:36 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

I think you know what I mean, condensation

tpratch
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:39 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Sorry - I'm going to respectfully disagree. Condensation nuclei can be anything - not even necessarily the salt in the air. Read up some more.

Beyond that, you do realize how impossible it would be to completely "clean" ocean water, right? The marine life in the ocean depends on the salinity to survive. Ocean currents move in such a manner that removal of the salt from any large (let's grant you 100 square miles to whatever depth) amount would merely become impure in a matter of minutes if not less.

Besides, everyone knows that without condensation, the heat of the water builds up. The hurricane gets a lot of its strength from warmer water - and not because it helps cause evaporation


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:51 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

I guess we are not on the same wavelength but I know that condensation nuclei don't just have to be salt, but over the ocean it mostly is and some micro particles of marine life. Trying to figure the mystery of gobal circulation is a very hard one (near impossible), how the Earth developed all of it's methods of spreading of heat it amazes me. Once one realizes how everything fits together like a puzzle it's gives an errie feeling (at least for me). Anyway BACK TO JEANNE.

It's cloud formation has become better organized lately and seems to be filling in the area that was badly sheared. I think tom. it will peak at it's intensity as it moves out away from the shear.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:56 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Not really -- over the oceans, the largest contributor to condensation nuclei are sulfates emitted by marine life. (For more: http://www.vivoscuola.it/us/rsigpp3202/umidita/attivita/CCN.htm, http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/1vl.html) Plus, there are other sources from the land that are carried across the oceans by the trade winds -- pollution being included as one of them. Eliminating salt content would likely have a negligible impact on hurricanes, but a very large one on marine life, considering there are many species that can only live in either salt or fresh water (and not either or).

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:57 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Anyone just watch TWC hurricane update. They really need to teach this woman how hurricanes form. She said that right now the outflow is being sheard and its too close to land down in hispaniola.... Shes a moron. The outflow is good in almost all quardrents and there is no landmass (outside of the bahamas) that is affecting her unlike yesterday. She really needs to sit down with Dr.Lyons or some better knowledged mets. Sorry, but things like that really upset me when they tell the public stuff that are not generally correct.

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 02:58 PM
JB-seer or madman?

I just read JB's noon thoughts on the tropics. He's either stark raving mad or very prescient...anyone interested? Let me know and I'll summarize.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:03 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

After reviewing the latest series of animated track models, it appears that the majority of the models (with the exception of UKMET) now show Jeanne heading off to the east, just barely slipping underneath the approaching ridge, and following in Karls path off to the northeast....

I realize that this possibility becoming reality is largely a function of timing... so with Jeanne now being a little further east, do any of you think this scenario is now a realistic outcome?

AdmittedHacker

(no witty phrase to insert here, just hoping for the best)


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:05 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman?

Quote:

I just read JB's noon thoughts on the tropics. He's either stark raving mad or very prescient...anyone interested? Let me know and I'll summarize.




Do tell... I am curious..

SK (not signed in)


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:08 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Scott... I saw her on TWC. That's one reason I have stopped watching TWC....

Obviously having a pretty face is more important that a met background or degree... hey, welcome to America. It's all about selling and image.... details and accuracy are just an afterthought...

AdmittedHacker


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:09 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman?

why does it seem to me that the LLC is just alittle more w then what the vis sat shows. I mean take a look at the wv, vis and if,,, if you look really hard enough there is a blow up of convection that LOOKS like its on the west side of the circulation,,,,but is that the LLC??? or really the mid? It appears to me that the blow up is over or just E of the LLC really being closer to 24.4N and 73.5W. Oh well wish recon was in there to see right now, but its not yet there. Anyways Im sure its really where the midlevel is closer to 24.2N and 72.2W.

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:13 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman?

Jeanne-becomes a CAT II or III within 72 hours, head back toward the EC by midweek...

Cat 2 or 3 in 72 hours? this I gotta see. as far as movement, and location, that's anybody's guess.

Ivan: tonight, hits florida beaches with 25-40mph winds and 10-15' waves (Richisurfs, get your board ready); then, it cuts across Fl., "landfalling" near Melbourne, and getting into the GOM, where he feels it will be a 50-60kt TS and hitting Texas (SoonerShawn, get prepared) on Thursday or Friday.

Those are some ba--sy calls, I'll give him that.

He ends his update with the following quote: "More later, and of course if none of this is right, we can say it was Moron, now."


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:14 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman?

Hey you mean JB actually comes to my forecast over the last 5 days????? LOL on melbourne-Daytona? I GTG, I still not completely sure if the LLC isnt w of the midlevel.

DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:17 PM
Attachment
Re: is this Jeanne's eye?

I am taking a break from studying and was watching the latest ...wait let me be sure I am looking at Jeanne, not Karl....Ok Ok the islands are there...now on the last frame I see this little thing pop up. Is this the new eye?

see attached

Dawn


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:17 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman?

ahh you ment IVAN ,,oh nm,,anyways hes right but I think its Jeanne later this week.

StormKrone
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:22 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman?

Well.... I've seen some pretty strange things in my time... some of them were hurricane tracks...guess I'll probably see a few more... time will tell..

I volunteered at the local Red Cross shelter on storm night. My roommates son and his lady lived on Okaloosa Island...(that IS past tense). He and his lady had just moved down there in August from northern Alabama.

He called yesterday when they could finally get in to check the damage and said he was standing on sand in his livingroom and touching the ceiling. He and his cousin had to use a shovel to find his bikes which were in the livingroom.

Frankly, I am tired... overwhelmed... and exhausted...
SK


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:23 PM
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy

Thanks very interesting, maybe gobal warming is a bi-product of increased condensation nulcei? They may form more clouds and therefore trap more heat. That's my take on it. And I'm not saying take away salt from the water, just from the hurricane, have a hurricane hunter plane drop a material that cleans the air of impurities? Let's end this topic, if you want to make a reply just PM me. Thanks

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:25 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

To quote an old boyfriend here. Need help please.

Set up a trial account with accuweather, figured if not now when. Didn't do it last year. Had one the season before.

I read it...can't figure out how to find it.
He says to check out his video of something on Betsy but cannot figure out where it is...

Please someone who is familiar with how the site or his mind works please tell me carefull here or in pm how do I find the video he mentions regarding Betsy.

Thank you.


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:28 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

Normally he has five video selections, one of which being Tropical Update...I just checked and it's not there...it's also not in the "Streaming Video" link...

That's very surprising. At least you know you're not losing it Bobbi...right now it doesn't exist.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:30 PM
Re: is this Jeanne's eye?

When you look for an eye, your first area you can get it is is by doppler radar, then visible, then infared, and then water vapor. Sometimes WV loops don't depict the eyes because they have moisture in them to, especially if it's forming.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:33 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

You know LI phil that they take the old viedos away, and over the weekend if there's no landfalling hurricanes JB doesn't do streaming viedos only on the weekdays. He has to have some time off.

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:34 PM
Lisa at 5:00

NRL has 13L NONAME up and lookie here, 92L as well.

No rest for the weary...


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:34 PM
Attachment
Re: JB-seer or madman?

Hey whats that disturbance way down there in the lower portion of the Carribean?
see attached


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:36 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman?

With everyone quoting his forecasts without paying for it, would not surprise me if he had two. One for the people who quote without permission and one that is real. Just my 2 cents worth.

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:37 PM
Mean Jeanne is back from the dead...

Jeanne

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:41 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman?

I'm interested! His forecast track will affect me directly, so I'm very interested!!

Angie Robertson


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:42 PM
Charter Member of the JB fan Club

I feel that sometimes JB's calls are radical but he is no moron. He is very intelligent and looks into things deeply. I think that he want's it to hit that area because it will give him points in his forecast. Right now he feel's it's a game and sometimes allows humor into his work. That's all I'm ever going to say about this topic, don't usually tell people how to make their forecasts, as I am not one to.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:42 PM
Re: Mean Jeanne is back from the dead...

Here is an article from the Sun Sentinel on Betsy 1965
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-1965-hurricane.story


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:43 PM
Re: Charter Member of the JB fan Club

Keith,

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying...are you saying I'm calling him a moron?


ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 03:54 PM
Latest Jeanne Report

333
URNT12 KNHC 191850
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/1835Z
B. 24 DEG 14 MIN N
72 DEG 21 MIN W
C. 925 MB 648 M
D. 50 KT
E. 299 DEG 51 NM
F. 033 DEG 44 KT
G. 299 DEG 39 NM
H. EXTRAP 996 MB
I. 23 C/ 481 M
J. 24 C/ 549 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
0. 1/3 NM
P. NOAA2 1011A JEANNE OB 04
MAX FLT WND 44KTS NW QUAD 1823Z


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:04 PM
Re: Charter Member of the JB fan Club

Well yes and no. Yes because of the remark, and no because you subsribed to accuweather and you wanted to hear JB's forecasts.

schmoo
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:06 PM
Ivan ??

This is a quote from a local met where I am. Does there seem any validity to it? I thought I read a post from Clark saying this didnt seem to be panning out.

Thanks from a newbie

"Amazing as it may sound, the remants of Ivan may regenerate into a weak tropical storm and bring tropical storm conditions to the Louisiana coast by Wednesday or Thursday. This possibility has been discussed on various sites and the models (at least some of them) have clearly been tracking a 500mb center around the rebuilding ridge.

The eta clearing has a weak surface low moving from east to west across our coast on Wednesday evening.

This is the ghost of Ivan!!!! It will be completely wild, if this happens. Stay tuned! It shouldn't turn into a big deal, but a tropical storm is certainly possible.

And we definitely need the rain. The west winds blasting behind Ivan has parched us out completely!!!!"

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/12/images/eta_slp_072s.gif


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:08 PM
Re: Mean Jeanne is back from the dead...

The Betsy/Jeanne correlation is a bit disconcerting because pretty much the whole coast of S. Fla. is one big barrier island. We live off Las Olas and A1A and every Dec. we are painfully reminded. When you're stuck on the east side of the bridges during the annual boatshow you tend to think about it. When Andrew came through we had to evacuate as we were told our entire house would be submerged. I just remember having very little time to look around and decide what to save.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:10 PM
Re: Ivan ??

"It shouldn't turn into a big deal, but a tropical storm is certainly possible."

A tropical storm is a big deal, he's like saying he's going to be wrong.


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:13 PM
Re: Charter Member of the JB fan Club

Keith,

The part about moron was a quote from Joe! Did you read his afternoon update?

I'm a big JB fan, don't always agree with him, but I can't get enough of him.

Make sure you read things through before you start making accusations.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:15 PM
Re: Charter Member of the JB fan Club

Oh sorry, didn't see the quotes.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:15 PM
Re: Charter Member of the JB fan Club

How long will it take for the model makers to initialize runs on the Recon report that was just entered?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:26 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

thanks phil.. found a great link on hurricanecity that has four weather maps for betsy which really do resemble the current set up

figures its not there now.. was the main reason i signed up for accuweather this morning, to see it... figures

anyway thanks guppie and watching loops and football

thanks
as for bastardi.. there is always a method to his madness


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:38 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

You're welcome, bobbi

>>> as for bastardi.. there is always a method to his madness

I love it when he nails one no body else saw. He needs a few minor miracles for what he's been dispensing lately, but if he gets that Ivan call right...

Saw andy1tom was checking things out ("who's online") so we know he's OK.

Still concerned about the rick...but it seems everyone else is now accounted for...thanks to all for your concern!


javlin
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:41 PM
Re: What's behind Karl?I ask again

I think we have a circukation going and if this continues or next depression.The rule of thumb is 10' between the center of the storm to the trof for the trof to have an effect.Eventially Karl will get pulled out but will this little system go N?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:43 PM
Re: 13N31W

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?
According to the discussion it has a 1008mb low with it. It sure is small compared to Karl. Should be a fish spinner..


SoonerShawn
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:46 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

I like JB because he is not afraid to throw some ideas out there, but I would have to say that he is out to lunch on saying that Texas will see any tropical activity. Sometimes he can be really on to something but this is one of those times that he is not.

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:47 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

Let us know next thursday, ss!

javlin
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:48 PM
Re: 13N31W

Thanks Lonny been looking at since this morning.Yea it is small but if it stays weak in Karl's path and it should would probably track more W or WNW.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 04:55 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

The UKMET is scaring me, it's suggesting the high will erode and retrograde, allowing the storm to ride up the coast starting from NC and upwards. Scary, but I would love to take this storm away from Florida, they don't need it. Let's see how it trends in the upcoming days.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 05:13 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

TD 13 just gave me a flashback of Isabel. Every year we have a CV system hit the Carolinas could this one be it? It's starting in the simliar area but since it's so close to Karl, that should limit it's development. I'll be watching this one. I'm dead tired, going to sleep.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 05:24 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

I have a Question. Is there anyway that Jeanne could wrap that left over energy into her own circulation since Ivan is not a circulation center any more but just some left over clouds. Then those models of bringing Jeanne across Florida into Texas would make sense only the storm would be a combination of Ivan and Jean making it Jevan?

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Sun Sep 19 2004 06:09 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

Looks like my original 5 day track forecast is still holding... Watch out JB!

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 06:14 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman? NEED HELP PLEASE

I thought I was seeing something different than the official forecast was saying but I figured I was not smart enough to say it. But It does look like your forecast when you get a good water Vapor loop. BTW I love your maps they are so neat and simple to read.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 06:20 PM
Re: JB-seer or madman?

And for my next trick, I'll make a tropical storm appear out of thin air!

I'm sorry, but that's what JB is getting at if he thinks Ivan is going to amount to anything again. There's nothing left of it out there! There's some wind along a tightened pressure gradient and a small piece of vorticity, but nothing at the surface. The main storm has long gone off into the Atlantic.

I wish I knew what he was seeing, both with Ivan and Jeanne...


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 06:23 PM
Re: Ivan ??

A 500mb reflection isn't anything at the surface. With proximity to land as well as quite a bit of dry air engulfing what is there...I see it as highly unlikely. Whatever is along the base of the ridge may kick up the winds a tad, but even that isn't going to be much.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 06:48 PM
question on jeanne's current movement and strength

1... dont think shes going north anymore. Not sure if she stopped or is looping here at this spot or moving a drop west, wnw, nw... but not too north. Last frames on loop are either eye oh im sorry... center is circulating on itself and looks like movement or is movement. maybe just a trend but gee not trending ne

2.. strength has to be higher than has been given, look at the presentation of the storm and what seems to be a rapidly developing cdo

3.. can see ivan's ghost moving w to sw across the state.. read melbourne wxr statement.. it reads like all the outlaw forecasters have been saying

4... think that everyone has understimated this girl from the get go

and.... now is not a good time to be in denial or to be a wishcaster

believe it was supposed to take a few days to look this good.

bobbi


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 06:57 PM
ps on karl

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

sorry but that movement looks for a while to be north of due west not wNw ... am sure its going to go wnw and going to curve but its making its way west and not a whole lot north if you ask me

so will be a player here even if it guiding jeanne


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:04 PM
Re: ps on karl

I was just checking the forcast points on the Loops and the center is not going in the direction of the forecast points. The center is headed to the left of the next forecast point and is definitely not turning a hard right at this time. Unless some one has a dyslexic screen problem, we have a storm that has totally ignored the forecast at this point. It is soooo scarey. What if nobody is home at the NHC and the computers are in charge?

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:07 PM
Re: Ivan ??

Local met from Biloxi stated on tonights weather that a piece of energy from Ivan's remnants would be causing increasing winds out of the east 15-20 mph as well as an increase in shower activity along the MS coast late Mon and Tues... then he pointed to the sat picture to where the remnants of Ivan were located, in the south Ga area is where he kinda pointed, of which all I saw was crystal clear skies... then he said at the moment there was no weather associated with this piece of energy....and would probably develop as it entered the GOM....

It had to be the strangest forecast I've seen in while, in a year of strange tropical forecasts.... go figure...

I don't know what worse, watching the Saints or waiting for a Cat 3 hurricane to hit you...... both are pretty stressful....


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:13 PM
Re: Ivan ??

Quote:



I don't know what worse, watching the Saints or waiting for a Cat 3 hurricane to hit you...... both are pretty stressful....



I would imagine that both are pretty bad however, at least in one case you would probably like to try again to see if this time You could win.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:17 PM
Re: question on jeanne's current movement and strength

Ivan's ghost is a mere area of voricity and a cloud swirl. If that can develop, re-develop then this season is really "A Season from Hell" something coming back from the dead, creeps me out. The comment I said about Isabel, I don't and I mean don't think that the next storm will be a CAT 5 in any way shape or form. I'm just saying that could take a somewhat a simliar track to that Isabel. I'm not just saying this and having no reason to back it up, that's just plain stupid. Here is my reason, the ensembles have the ridge breaking by Japan this could teleconnect with the ridge in the east, breaking this down would allow a hit in the north; the Carolinas. We have seen time and time again a big new england wheel high governing the tropics and directing storms to Florida. I'm simply sepculating that the model's have been trending more to troughs then to the overall ridges in general. Just my take on the next storm, and by the way teleconnection's are usually somewhat far off from the real deal.

SoonerShawn
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:26 PM
JB is not the only one!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX&version=0

I guess there are others who are just as crazy as JB!!!!


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:26 PM
Re: Ivan ??

GG.... well they did win today, but even when they win, its like they lose... strange huh.... hope Steve doesn't read this.... hehe

heck, I'm still trying to figure out our local mets forecast from 6.... and I still can find any remnant of Ivan heading this way, maybe its a stealth system.....


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:26 PM
Re: ps on karl

"What if nobody is home at the NHC and the computers are in charge?"

perish the thought Guppie! but thats a darn good question


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:30 PM
Re: JB is not the only one!

Shawn, what the hell is a BEAR watch? ya'll watch for bears in Texas?

Sounds pretty dangerous...

Warning BEAR watch in effect... Bears may be approaching your area within 24-36 hours.... Please monitor the progress of this BEAR watch for further updates....


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:33 PM
Re: JB is not the only one!

That's crazy, having "pops" at 30 perent is a sign that they're not to sure about that forecast. I just don't see this storm maintaining it's self.

belleami
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:38 PM
I need some info from Pensacola - looking for a friend

Is there anyone here from Pensacola? I need some info on the area off W. Michigan - I can't get in touch with a friend on Boulder Ave.
Does anyone have any info on damage, phone availability, etc?
Thanks very much!


FreakedInFlorida
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:38 PM
My apologies...

I may have been too harsh in my comments about Accuweather and if so, I apologize. I realized that I don't know much about Accuweather.com beyond what is presented in the free portion of their site, which offers very little in the way of information as to why such a track is possible. From an outsider who may not even know about other sites like NOAA and this one, basically you are getting a snapshot of a concept of an unsure thing, that seems much more sure when put into graphic form. It is that that I think Accuweather does wrong, which is to put up a track 7 days in advance in a system that has not followed any of the paths it has been estimated to go. It just causes undue worry that far out.

Anyway, didn't mean to rattle any feathers if I did.


SoonerShawn
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:39 PM
Frank P

I was thinking the same thing!

I told you that JB is not the only one on something.

I don't know what the heck is going on.


Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:40 PM
Re: I need some info from Pensacola - looking for a friend

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/

There is a lot of info here and should help you out. I have someone there and most phone service is out but the power situation is really getting better.

Coop


belleami
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:59 PM
Re: I need some info from Pensacola - looking for a friend

Thanks, I was cruising that site - the damage is unbelievable. I feel so lucky here,
I will keep checking in, and looking for more info.
God bless


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 19 2004 07:59 PM
Re: Charter Member of the JB fan Club

Phil/Keith.... what's the connection.... same hometown... Keith in high school and Phil knows it.... farther/son?

Too bad I was too late to give insight on CNs.... as an atmospheric chemist, finally something I can talk about and have a clue as to what's going on!


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:04 PM
Re: Charter Member of the JB fan Club

No connection here between us and we live in two different towns Deer Park and Mineola but not that far away. I have talked to him and said I was in high school which I am, that's how he knows.

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:07 PM
Re: I need some info from Pensacola - looking for a friend

try these other active boards

http://www.momsview.com/discus/messages/board-topics.html For Gulf shores

http://users.boardnation.com/~waff/index.php?board=12 Alabama

http://p207.ezboard.com/fcityfreqfrm1 (for Orange Beach)
http://members.boardhost.com/hurricanecity/

http://www.pensacolasgreatest.com/MessageBoard.html Pensacola

http://www.digitalcity.com/pensacolafl/communityguidelines/ Pensacola


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:08 PM
Re: Charter Member of the JB fan Club

Terra, I'm the only one on these boards allowed to stir the pot!

As Keith said, we live close, but not that close---probably 30 miles apart...you may have noticed the lat/lon similarities, I didn't take mine out three decimal points, but if I did, they'd look farther apart.

Lets keep it on the weather...I got a hankering Jeanne has a couple of surprises in store...I'm NOT buying the NHC forecast for a minute...still not gonna make any kind of a forecast because I've had my fill of crow for a while.

Let's see where she is in the morning..


Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:08 PM
Re: I need some info from Pensacola - looking for a friend

Fantastic Kent, Thanks a million!!

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:09 PM
ivan's ghost is visible... wierdness reigns

and its raining here..
a bit windy too..

think jeanne is intensifying..
my brother finally took down his shutters... prob will get jeanne tomorrow night (lol) and well...

ivan is visible but not a storm but does have weather and changes the air flow of the way

karl isnt going wnw .. agree with guppie on this one, worried on too much talk about models and am getting sick to death of hearing about the models (something I NEVER thought I would say EVER when I used to beg SNONUT to talk more about models...who knew) and jeanne isnt going north if you ask me tho maybe a short term illusion..

and im sick of cones and five day forecasts
you know what i would like?

some old time forecasting, talk and beginning to enjoy what i call the "outlaw forecasters" who arent afraid to say what they see, take a chance, go out on a limb and will add Norcross to that because he said on Friday in the afternoon that the track was all "supposition" and he said sarcastically "im sure they have lots of reasons why they think jeanne will do this" so add norcross to the list

respect nhc but think they are stonewalling it on this one and hoping it plays out the way they want and a door opens out of a bad situation and it races off... which to me is a gamble more than anything else

if it was just bastardi screaming into the wind or someone here online ... or (shrugging shoulders) the tooth fairy well fine but its EVERYONE and NWS everywhere seem to be just writing what they think

maybe its time to rething the situation

bobbi
ps... not real excited about whats on accuweather, if anyone has any good suggestions what to look at that i cant get elsewhere please pm me so i can check it out, thank u


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:29 PM
Re: ivan's ghost is visible... wierdness reigns

I have been seening the UKMET model in particular mainly because it is the outlier for now at least and I always like to see what's causing it to be an outlier. Apparently the system that will be bringing snow to the rockies will lift up into Canada, and trigger a secondary system to form south of it when it's in Canada, this system combined with the snow producer will erode the ridge from the north allowing Jeanne to skim the east coast. Also, most of the models have really been making the Azores high strong, were talking like omega block strong, 1045 mbs, I wonder how that will affect the tracks of these storms. I too tried right now to look into it, have to see tom.

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:30 PM
What's so good about accuwx pro?

Well, I happen to like for a number of reasons, not the least of which is their modeling suite...that probably wouldn't interest you.

Also, the "hires graphics" section, which is where I have grabbed a number of attachments recently.

They also have Henry Margusity, the severe weather expert, who also happens to know a bunch about hurricanes.

Then there's Joe B and his videos...just ask steve, worth my $.52/day just for his commentary.

They also have a "severe weather" section which is most helpful when t-storms threaten.

They used to give you free access to something known as "Radar Plus" which, in addition to some awesome graphics, has a "future weather predictor" tool, which lets you graphically see what the weather will be three hours from now. ie..when t-storms approach, it will "anticipate" the weather from now up to three hours into the future, on a radar loop. The free trial was pretty cool, but I'm not paying any more than I already am.

What else...you can download forecasts to your PDA...15 day forecasts (worthless, but at least they try)...historical data...what was the weather in your area 3 years ago today...it will tell you...2 billion different types of radar/sat...

I use it mostly for JB and the model suites, but there is a bunch of stuff...just click away and explore. I find something new every day.

EDIT: Just noticed this, but I think it's a nice touch that all NFL teams are wearing a "40" on their helmets!


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:57 PM
Jeanne recon update....

latest recon shows a 994 mb.... previous recon was 996 mb
max fl winds now at 61K.... previous recon was 46K
lat is 24.71 n... previous recon lat was 24.37 w....
long 72.06n... previous recon long was 72.33 w....

that's up north .34 degrees and over east .27 degrees since last recon....

appears to be slowly strengthening.... and drifting basically to the NE

On Ivan's remnants... anyone looking at that system as it stands right now with absolutely no convection at all and can predict it to be anything of any significant is not a scientist but a psychic.... but stranger things have happened I guess...


Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 08:58 PM
Re: ivan's ghost is visible... wierdness reigns

yes Bobbie, ghost of Ivan showing in Melbourne NWS discussion and short term forcast now. If you look at Melbourne radar can see a rain band moving sw towards the Cape area. Fun with Jeanne. Oh, and take a look at IR floater top left and see moisture of Ivan remnant entering picture.
I get feeling Jeanne not trending NNE but maybe instead NNW. Maybe She wants to go play with Ivan. Hey if Ivan remnants can move around bottom of big High, could Jeanne possibly do the same? Just a thought.
Hurric


Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:02 PM
Re: ivan's ghost is visible... wierdness reigns

Wow, so does Tally....just looked.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A STRONG VORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN CURRENTLY EAST OF FLORIDA GETTING TRAPPED
UNDER THE RIDGE AND CROSSING THE PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EMERGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ETA BOTH
CLOSE OFF A WEAK LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ETA AND GFS SHOW THE FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD SKIRTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND MONDAY AND OVER THE
REMAINING FLORIDA ZONES ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT POPS
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ON MONDAY AND EXTEND WESTWARD ON TUESDAY. WHAT IS
LEFT OF THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER
THE ENSUING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR POPS OVER
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FLORIDA ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:05 PM
Re: ivan's ghost is visible... wierdness reigns

I think Joe B hacked into the NHC/NWS website and posted that . Joe called it a 1 in 1,000 shot in his update. I gotta ask him for his powerball (our multi-state lottery) numbers...

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:08 PM
Re: ivan's ghost is visible... wierdness reigns

with all due respect to the little men in the flying machines ... are we working with the same center? if there is a center that is moving nne it has no convection and the center visible on all 3 sats has moved west of due north not east

sorry that its not in agreement with the last forecast but... not that hard to see

just as was easy enough to see earlier w/o recon info that she strengthened

thanks phil will look at model suite and hi resolution part
agree bastardi is worth giving up a coke a day to watch during peak of the season

if that is a front sweeping thru central florida causing rain which melboune nws has talked about, and believe jax too then why is it moving like a backdoor cold front

lot of good questions here for possible solutions to temporary questions


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:13 PM
Re: ivan's ghost is visible... wierdness reigns

Just wondering, the light convection off the coast of Fl east of Daytona Beach, with absolutely no organization whatever, is that the remnants of Ivan??? Heck, I thought it was more north perhaps off the coast of Ga or something... the radar loop shows the rain band heading towards the sw to the Orlando area....

I think the Bear Watch in Texas is making more sense to me than all of this.... wonder when Texas will post a Bear Warning... now that could be serious...


Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:14 PM
Re: ivan's ghost is visible... wierdness reigns

Phil:
Most of the local weather channels have been calling for this from last night, nothing new here, also TWC had the forecast for the same conditions for St. Pete from yesterday.

Dave


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:16 PM
Bear Watch-FP you funny

Bear Watch: bear conditions could be possible within the warning area within 36 hours

Bear Warning: bear conditions can be expected within the warning area within 24 hours

Bare Naked Ladies: lame "rock" group


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:22 PM
Re: Bear Watch-FP you funny

Well I can tell you this LIPhil.... we get a Bear Warning in MS and the plywood is going back up... don't want no hungry arse bears breaking though my windows eating my bassets... they'd look like some king size vienna sausages to a hungry bear....



I'm still trying to figure out what they meant by that... Bear Watch.... strange

I guess since Tx has not had any tropical weather to speak of this year... they are going to shift their emphasis to bears... and I didn't even think they had bears in Texas....

Shawn???


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:23 PM
Re: ivan's ghost is visible... wierdness reigns

The lotto numbers were are ready called for today at least!

LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:26 PM
Re: Bear Watch-FP you funny *DELETED*

Post deleted by LI Phil

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:29 PM
Re: ivan's ghost is visible... wierdness reigns

oh i see, im sorry

we were looking in different areas, no wonder you couldnt see the ghost of ivan

i was going by nws and wv...where moisture trail has been zooming sw for the last day.

not a believer in organized regeneration.. just think thats too wierd but can watch a vapor trail and see its evidence on radar

now i understand
lost on the bear thing but its ok... somethings i dont need to know


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:34 PM
Re: Bear Watch-FP you funny

only you could find that LIPhil, must still be on that Yankee win high .... Dallas Bears.... too funny....

the pres of the Dallas Bears looks as big as a bear


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:35 PM
notes from Norcross on past friday in quotes

A friend was here and was so blown away by what Norcross said they wrote bits and pieces down. Told me if others hadnt seen it they'd have thought they were dreaming as he rarely outright goes against NHC. But being a Miamian when Norcross says something I give it more weight than something online or by a forecaster I dont know as well.

Said pointing to the track of NHC "whole bunch of supposition"

He said the whole tropical picture was going to get "complicated and strange"

Called Jeanne tenacious and worth watching.

pointed to the track for the next five days and said "for some reason they seem to believe their forecast makes sense"

then he went into this long drawn out explanation of how ivan's remants would end up off the coast of florida and would move sw across the state and depending on if ivan's remnants do something more than rain.. it could steal jeanne's chance or jeanne could negate ivan or they could both go west but I dont have the exact quotes here because my friend stopped writing and stared with their mouth wide open in shock

as much as i trust many here, as much as i trust nhc... when norcross questions they on air... there has to be a very good reason, its not like him

now 2 days later i can see why he said what he did


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:39 PM
Bobbi.... here is where the Bear Watch got started

this is the Houston AFD posted this afternoon... look at the last line....

DISCUSSION...
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN. WE SHOULD SEE A CLEAR EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS RUNNING AT TO MAY BE A JUST TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ALL QUIET WXWISE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. THEREAFTER PROGS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/POPS FROM THE EAST (VIA THE REMNANTS OF IVAN) A-ROUND THE BASE OF THE STRONG RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VLY.
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING THAT WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRENGTHENING OF THIS RATHER PERSISTENT STORM. WILL GO WITH 30% POPS STARTING WED ON
THROUGH SAT. BEAR WATCH WILL LIKELY BE POSTED.

no kidding, this is what was written... posted by Shawn from Tx himself....


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:40 PM
Karl

Anyone else notice how Karl is still moving West?

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:45 PM
Re: Karl

Quote:

Anyone else notice how Karl is still moving West?



Yeah, I think he should have started his turn by now. I'm not too worried yet, but if he's still moving west 24 hours from now, it'll be time to stock up on more Ply-Lox.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:46 PM
Re: Karl

Isnt it suppose to move west for awhile then start heading ne?

SoonerShawn
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:49 PM
Frank P

I'm waiting for the next statement from the NWS here in Houston to see if it has been upgraded to a warning...lol.

I still haven't figured out what they meant to say on that.


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:51 PM
Re: notes from Norcross on past friday in quotes

Lois I agree with you 100%

WHen Francis was coming I only watched Brian.


Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:52 PM
Re: Bobbi.... here is where the Bear Watch got started

Here's the latest AFD from Houston/Galveston.... the bear watches have not yet verified... ...and "Ivan" is now an "upper level system".

What a nutty day...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
830 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIRMASS HAS FILTERED INTO ALL BUT FAR SW ZONES THIS EVENING.
ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO THE DRIER AIRMASS.

CHANGE TO LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS EASTERLY WINDS BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
RETURN LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY...SO
HAVE DECIDED TO ADD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW POPS TO THE GRIDS.
COMBINATION OF WEAKENING UPPER HIGH AND MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LATTER PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. 35/43



Allison


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:54 PM
Re: Frank P

my last post on the Bear Watch before Phil gives me the ax... I have figured out the Bear Watch and it can mean only one of two things...

1. The Bears will watch us... or
2. We will watch the Bears..

there can be no other meanings...

sure glad this guy is not writing up the discussions for the NHC..... heck, we could have have several hundred miles of coast under this here Bear Watch...


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:57 PM
Re: Bobbi.... here is where the Bear Watch got started

allison, the bear watch statement was from the one prior to this updated one, and was for the afternoon discussion and not the evening one... I also saw the same AFD posted on Storm2K and they were just as confused as I was... I also saw the statement after I connected to the link by Shawn... so I can verify that it was written, we just don't know what they meant by it,.... maybe they were trying to say that the system bares watching, and tried to be alittle cute... who knows

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 09:59 PM
Re: Frank P

Chicago Bears, has to be a football reference

right?
hey vinnie and dallas won

maybe was to see if everyone was reading over the weekend?

i dont care what you can ivan's remnants ..ghosts.. its moisture eating into what is supposed to be an area of developing high pressure to jeanne's west

thats all i care about
that and someone is going to get soaked later tonight along the central florida coastline and maybe further south


Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:07 PM
It was a slight jab at forecasting...

Quote:

I also saw the statement after I connected to the link by Shawn... so I can verify that it was written, we just don't know what they meant by it




Yeah, I know... I saw it earlier today too... I suppose sarcasm doesn't always translate on-line... even with a

Allison


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:12 PM
Allison.... my bad

I thought you read the post and thought I was making it all up.... it sure sounds like something that someone would make it....

sorry for any misunderstanding.... now I catch your sarcarsm, and perhaps theirs too...

have a nice evening everyone.... time for me to hang it up for tonight... Jeanne is not going to bother anyone anytime soon, if ever...


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:12 PM
Re: Karl

Quote:

Anyone else notice how Karl is still moving West?




In a normal year, we would just expect the turn at anytime. In a year like this,I think we are all willing the turn too soon and get concerned when we don't see it yet. It should start in 24-36 hours. But I'm not holding my breath this year.


AdvAutoBob
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:15 PM
Re: question on jeanne's current movement and strength

Quote:

1... dont think shes going north anymore. Not sure if she stopped or is looping here at this spot or moving a drop west, wnw, nw... but not too north. Last frames on loop are either eye oh im sorry... center is circulating on itself and looks like movement or is movement. maybe just a trend but gee not trending ne

2.. strength has to be higher than has been given, look at the presentation of the storm and what seems to be a rapidly developing cdo

3.. can see ivan's ghost moving w to sw across the state.. read melbourne wxr statement.. it reads like all the outlaw forecasters have been saying

4... think that everyone has understimated this girl from the get go

and.... now is not a good time to be in denial or to be a wishcaster

believe it was supposed to take a few days to look this good.

bobbi




stupid newbie question here... I'm familiar with quite a few of the terms used, and understand pretty wel for a layman, but what is CDO? I know it refers to the center of circulation, but what do the letters stand for?


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:19 PM
Re: question on jeanne's current movement and strength

CDO=Central Dense Overcast...you can find a list of all acronyms (or most anyway) by clicking on the "General Info" link to your left under CONTENT.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:24 PM
Ghost of Ivan

AT 00Z VORT MAX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN...IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 23 KNOTS OFF OF THE FLORIDA NE COAST NEAR 29.5N 77.5W.
EXTRAPOLATING THIS MOTION...IT WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR FORT PIERCE-VERO BEACH TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 12Z AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

BESIDES FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ENOUGH HELICITY IS PROBABLY AVAILABLE TO CAUSE FUNNEL CLOUDS TOMORROW
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

Hey Phil, we 10 run ruled those Dead Sox again.


BillD
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:28 PM
Re: What's so good about accuwx pro?

I don't agree. When Accuwhatever went to pay per view, I signed up for the trial. Yes, they had some neat graphics, but it was just that, neat graphics. I thinik JB is a loud mouthed egotistical ???. I'm not saying he doesn't have the wx background to be able to come up with some reasonable, and sometimes plausible, forecasts, but he is mostly wrong. Not that the NHC is always right, but I just do not like the idea that some private company is trying to take away their authority, and JB is right in the middle of it with his bigger than life ego.

Bill



Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:29 PM
Re: What's so good about accuwx pro?

Quote:

I don't agree. When Accuwhatever went to pay per view, I signed up for the trial. Yes, they had some neat graphics, but it was just that, neat graphics. I thinik JB is a loud mouthed egotistical ???. I'm not saying he doesn't have the wx background to be able to come up with some reasonable, and sometimes plausible, forecasts, but he is mostly wrong. Not that the NHC is always right, but I just do not like the idea that some private company is trying to take away their authority, and JB is right in the middle of it with his bigger than life ego.

Bill





Amen Bill


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:31 PM
Re: Ghost of Ivan

WXRITCHIE my moms in Vero..
can you elaborate on this?

Is this the Ivan left over?

Vero just got their power back from Francis...Did you see what happened to all their power lines?
hope this is not a windy storm your talking about!


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:40 PM
Re: Ghost of Ivan

Many of the buoys off the East Central and North Florida coastline have sustained winds of 27-29 knots and gusts of 33-35 knots currently. On land, I also found gusts to 32 mph at St. Augustine. Beware of the ghost. It is almost Halloween.

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:43 PM
Re: question on jeanne's current movement and strength

11pm Jeanne Disc

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2004
a NOAA hurricane hunter found 60 kt flight-level winds at 925 mb about 25 N mi from the center in both the northeastern and southeastern quadrants...along with a central pressure of 994 mb. Surface winds from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer on the aircraft were near 50 kt. The initial intensity is thus increased to 50 kt. While convective banding has increased and moved closer to the center since yesterday...the storm is still not that well organized as reflected in satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt. Cirrus outflow is poor in the southern quadrant and fair to good elsewhere.

The initial motion is 010/7...although the motion during the NOAA flight was closer to 030/7. Jeanne is currently between a deep layer ridge to the east and an upper-level trough/cold front to the northwest. Track guidance agrees this pattern should gradually turn Jeanne northeastward through 36 hr. Serious model divergence then arises. The GFS and guidance based on it...including the GFDL...March Jeanne steadily toward the east or east-northeast south of a strong deep-layer trough through 120 hr...with the GFS showing Jeanne follow Karl northeastward to higher latitudes. On the other hand...the UKMET and NOGAPS turn Jeanne southeastward and southward through about 96 hr as Karl passes to the east and a deep-layer ridge builds to the northwest...then move it northwest as the ridge weakens. At the moment...it cannot be determined which of these two options will verify. Therefore...the official forecast track splits the difference between the two extremes and call for a slow eastward drift after 36 hr. This continues to be a low confidence forecast.

The intensity forecast remains problematic. For now...the upper- level winds are favorable and the broad circulation should gradually consolidate. After 24-36 hr...the GFS and the NOGAPS indicate significant upper-level westerlies impacting Jeanne. Despite showing more than 20 kt of shear...the SHIPS model calls for strengthening during this period as does the GFDL. Another complication is that the cold front may interact with Jeanne in about 36 hr. The intensity forecast calls for strengthening to 70 kt by 48 hr...which is less than the 78 kt from ships or the 86 kt from the GFDL. After 48 hr...the environment will likely become hostile enough to stop intensification and cause slight weakening.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:52 PM
i have a problem

with any forecast that says in the forecast that it has low confidence in itself

take two aspirin, two hours of therapy and get back to me when there is more confidence in the forecast

and twisters could develop, albeit small ones probably from an unstable environment... bad storm history these remnants have

re: wired marvin lewis... can we change coaches?


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:54 PM
Re: question on jeanne's current movement and strength

I think we in Florida can all rest easy tonight. Jeanne is looking more and more to be a problem only to the fishes.
This little ghost of Ivan is just a bit of a breeze. We can always use a breeze.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:56 PM
Re: i have a problem

Quote:

with any forecast that says in the forecast that it has low confidence in itself

take two aspirin, two hours of therapy and get back to me when there is more confidence in the forecast

and twisters could develop, albeit small ones probably from an unstable environment... bad storm history these remnants have

re: wired marvin lewis... can we change coaches?




The Dolphins are playing like Jeanne. Spinning out in the open, being annoying and going nowhere fast. I think old Dave has the same outlook as the NHC. We really aren't confident in what we are saying.


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 10:57 PM
Ivan's Ghost

Ivan's ghost is getting ready to make itself felt here in Florida. Look at this latest discussion from the Melbourne Weather Service:

STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BUFFET VOLUSIA/BREVARD COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...

...NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG COAST TOWARD MORNING...

H5 VORT MAX AND ASSOC WEAK SFC REFLECTION (REMNANTS OF TC IVAN)
CURRENTLY ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL PUSH SW AROUND
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND WEAK SFC LOW IS PRODUCING A
SURGE OF STRONG N/NE WINDS SPREADING S/SW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LIKELY REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WIND SURGE. WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE (40 MPH) WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF FT PIERCE INLET AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESP
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THIS WIND SURGE. A NARROW SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES
STRETCHING NE-SW COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING BETWEEN COCOA
BEACH AND FORT PIERCE.


--Lou


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:26 PM
fletch.........on the contrary

i have much more confidence in NHC than fins coaching staff right now.

then again am luahing so hard from game and jeanne and discussion out of miami on incarnation of ivan and possible severe weather i think i may wake up tomorrow and find out its 1996 and this was all a dream like in dallas except with any luck im married to vinnie lol


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:28 PM
Re: fletch.........on the contrary

Time to start to watch the models to see if they want to converge on a solution with Jeanne. Tonights OZ run, Monday 12Z and tomorrow nights 0Z runs should converge. East? Stall? West>? My forcaste stays the same.
I will post more later on ideas though.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:31 PM
Re: fletch.........on the contrary

OK well ETA is out and although its a run off of the GFS and not a good model togo by, it doesnt pull Jeanne off to the ENE like in the last many runs. Now it keeps her just east of the bahamas and then loses her. Basically it doesnt have a good handle on her. For now I will disregard this model on this run. Still its interesting it doesnt pull her out to sea.

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:34 PM
Re: fletch.........on the contrary

Yo svb.... give me your opinion of the ECMWF. I know it has been its share of "off" lately but would like you to weigh in on that one for me.

Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:37 PM
Re: fletch.........on the contrary

I still feel Jeanne will end up northeast. TD13 bugs me if she soon to be Lisa keeps that new track, look out FL to NC and maybe GOM.

Dave


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:40 PM
miami discussion on ivan's remnants


SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

FINAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF THE EVENING HAS MOVED SOUTH THROUGH MOST
OF THE PENINSULA WITH NO OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

AT 00Z VORT MAX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN...IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 23 KNOTS OFF OF THE FLORIDA NE COAST NEAR 29.5N 77.5W.
EXTRAPOLATING THIS MOTION...IT WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR FORT
PIERCE-VERO BEACH TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 12Z AND MOVE INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

BESIDES FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ENOUGH
HELICITY IS PROBABLY AVAILABLE TO CAUSE FUNNEL CLOUDS TOMORROW
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEABREEZE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER WESTERN MIAMI-DADE AT THE MOMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE EVERGLADES OF DADE AND MONROE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD SEE BEGINNING OF INCREASINGLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AS A CHUNK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE FORMERLY KNOWN AS IVAN REACHES FLORIDA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATO-CU SURGING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
LAST 2 DAYS WORTH OF GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS
FEATURE ARRIVING IN SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. LATEST INCARNATION
INCLUDES WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TOMORROW. DECIDED TO INCREASE
POPS TO 40 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST TOMORROW (EMPHASIZING
BEST CHANCES AT THE COAST AND NEARER TO PALM BEACH).

AFTER THAT THE NORTHEAST WIND REGIME SETTLES IN FOR THE LONG
HAUL...WHICH WILL BE MORE OF A MARINE/BEACH ISSUE (SEE BELOW).
&&


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:45 PM
Jeanne Death Toll Rises

The Associated Press is now reporting that Jeanne killed at least 90 people in Haiti...with the death toll expected to rise
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6004150/

--Lou


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:46 PM
Re: Jeanne Death Toll Rises

thanks for that bad news... something to think on... imagine it will rise

since the beginning of the season with the td that wasnt... high loss of life for hispanola this year...

on another note... can we call ivan a derecho shadow maybe??

http://www.srh.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:46 PM
Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants

well storm, Ill give it the intensity correct but the position is off, I still feel it will come very close to florida (if not across) by Thurs night or Friday. Although since that is 5-6 days away it might get soo close then slide N hugging 50 miles out. Thing is on jeanne is currently how far north she gets. Then does she pass 70W to the east? Then will she start her sw-wsw track on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Her turn to the NW then N wont happen till Thursday. So by Friday if she is still east of 80W then she will go north. But she might be over land or even just off the west coast of Florida by Friday. So basically Im saying the model is just off on location.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:51 PM
Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants

GFS wants to still take Jeanne out to sea....Still could happen but I want to see it do it.

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:57 PM
Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants

Thanks, wanted your input! We will see I guess.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 19 2004 11:58 PM
Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants

dont look at the ukmet

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 20 2004 12:15 AM
Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants

One thing I can assure, the dry air has arrived here in NW FL and it feels great. The points to the west and south without power will really luck out with this shot of cool air.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 20 2004 12:24 AM
Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants

Its actually not bad here in tampa....dry air,,,makes it feel nice with the breeze.

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 20 2004 12:37 AM
Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants

We can move over now thanks to Ed, new thread.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 12:45 PM
Re: notes from Norcross on past friday in quotes

Some chicadeez are 2 much in luv with themselves........


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