MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:09 AM |
Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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11AM Update
Not too much has changed with the NHC track. Maybe slightly left... more into Central Florida, as a somewhat curved track.
Jeanne's structure is being affected by cold water being upwelled and the dry air around it. Which will keep intensity in check at least for the time being. As it moves out of the upwelled water area it will encounter higher water temperatures and have a chance to restrengthen. It's outflow and form has remained strong, so it can spin back up quicker than say Frances could when it fell apart. Jeanne and Frances are different storms, and I wouldn't base Jeanne on what Frances did do. How much time Jeanne stays over the warmer water will determine if the storm is a category 2 or 3 when it makes landfall. In either case, the trend will likely be strengthening at landfall.
There might be a time where the storm goes a bit more southward, because of the ridge. It will most assuredly drive the people staring at satellites looking for movement trends and wobbles crazy.
This could still change. The watches are still in effect, Hurricane Warnings are up now for the northern Bahama Islands.
More to come...
Original Update
Hurricane Watches are up in Florida from Florida City to St. Augustine.
Hurricane Jeanne, still with a bit of dry air, has weakened a tad, but still has a chance to restrengthen -- in fact the forecast has the storm as a category 3 storm when approaching the coast, stronger than Frances. The track however, has shifted east a bit, not with a very oblique landfall (if the current NHC track holds, which is not likely) along cape Canaveral into New Smyrna/Daytona Beach. But some models push it further south and west while others keep it just offshore. There are no sure bets.
Folks in the watch area need to prepare, a quote from the Melbourne Hurricane Local statement says it best,
"For the residents of east central Florida... Please do not hesitate in putting up your guard This has been an exhausting hurricane season with many folks having already experienced considerable property damage and personal stress. However... Hurricane Jeanne poses a real and great thread to our communities. Be strong and take precaution. Help others in need. Stay Calm." Which is the better than I could have put it.
Hope for the best, there is still a chance for this to miss Florida, but I fear again Florida will be dealing with another storm, possibly the 3rd major storm landfall of the year.
Event Related Links
You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:28 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I guess I should start getting into hunker mode...sigh it's almost habit now...
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Some folks bring out the barbecue grills and flags at 4th of July. Here in Florida we break out the hurricane shutters and jugs of water. Whoo!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
The track however, has shifted east a bit, not with a very oblique landfall (if the current NHC track holds, which is not likely) along cape Canaveral into New Smyrna/Daytona Beach. But some models push it further south and west while others keep it just offshore. There are no sure bets.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A
DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS NOW
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ELONGATE
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP JEANNE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL IN QUESTION...AS THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO MISS THE FLORIDA COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS
DRIVES JEANNE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE
RECURVATURE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JEANNE ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR...AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH MAY NOT ALLOW AS MUCH NORTHWARD MOTION AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL
AND GFS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET AGAIN APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST IN
THE FIRST 12 HR.
Quote:The above exerpt from the NHC discussion would support your warning to not hold our breath that we will be missed. The forecasts by others in this forum indicating a crossing of the state and out to the GOM look more and more possible. Scottvp predicts a coastal, just inland, route maybe slightly west of the now official track. Your warning that it could go anywhere is most appropriate. Keep up the good work, you are saving lives with this baard, you know that, don't you?
Hope for the best, there is still a chance for this to miss Florida, but I fear again Florida will be dealing with another storm, possibly the 3rd major storm landfall of the year.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:36 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Yes, Jeanne will decide where she wants to go. Until then, we have some incredible tools and guidance at our disposal to help anticipate her most likely path and intensity range. As NHC points out, intensity is probably the most difficult aspect of these storms to forecast with great accuracy. Combine that with a storm expected to recurve to the north and east, and you have a real challenge. Based on current guidance, which has become increasingly consistent in exposing a northward weakness by early Sunday morning, I expect Jeanne to hug the east coast from Palm Beach northward.
As with most hurricanes scraping the coast, it is the coastal areas which have to be most prepared for some storm surge flooding (esp. forward right quadrant), but only briefly from Palm Beach to Daytona Beach, then offshore. Jeanne (possibly reaching cat 3 strength) will most likely affect coastal areas with cat 2 winds (96-110 mph) initially, dropping to cat 1 (74-95 mph) north of Daytona Beach. Based on the current forecast, damaging wind gusts exceeding 50 mph are possible up to 50 miles inland to the left of the actual storm track. Trees, mobile homes, and suspended objects are most susceptible to being damaged and causing injury and damage to nearby structures.
(I second the applause for Skeetobite's maps!)
“Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.”
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:48 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Will this make a record - five named storms for one state in one season?
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:50 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
Will this make a record - five named storms for one state in one season?
Technically speaking, can Florida claim Ivan? Landfall was actually in Alabama.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:51 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:Oh, I absolutely agree, without reservation I agree the tools are great and are a real help in making good forecasts.
Yes, Jeanne will decide where she wants to go. Until then, we have some incredible tools and guidance at our disposal to help anticipate her most likely path and intensity range.
My post(s) are meant to remind us that as good as they are, we shouldn't worship a particular tool, a particular model because it 'misses my house by the most so now I won't get the storm' and similar reasoning. It is like saying 'I just bought this neaty keen wrench, now my car will run perfectly forever.'
You appear to be quite literate with the use of the various tools and make accurate observations and seem to make good conclusions. Many of the 'lurkers' and members of this board do not, and can not. Not because of a lack of IQ, but because their education and experience lie in different areas. Often, they do NOT realize that models are only one tool, are often wrong and change in a heartbeat.
My goal in posting is to encourage them to question the "why?' and ask 'What else should I know?' when they see the models and forecasts. Your accurate observations and conclusions complement my and other posts and help us see the big picture more clearly. Keep doing it. It is important!
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:56 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Since Florida was hit so hard by Ivan, I think it would count. Maybe not landfall wise, but definitely in the overall scheme. Jeanne would be the official fourth and maybe that's a record. There were three hits in the 60's, was that the most?
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:57 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I think technically no..but we got some of the worst of it so how about 5 named storms to effect FL?
If that doesn't work let's not forget the season isn't over yet....(don't shoot the messenger)
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:00 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:The NHC has a good archive and historical section easily available on the same page as their forecast menus (main page) and I bet the answer is in there. If not, UndergroundWeather should. Good question....
Since Florida was hit so hard by Ivan, I think it would count. Maybe not landfall wise, but definitely in the overall scheme. Jeanne would be the official fourth and maybe that's a record. There were three hits in the 60's, was that the most?
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:10 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Good Morning Everyone!
I have not been as diligent in watching this storm as I watched Frances and Ivan. School and life had to take front. But this morning I noticed something. With Frances and Ivan the storms went through an eye wall replacement every day almost. I have not heard a mention to Jeanne doing this, yet I noticed on the visable and WV that the eye was clearly seen for several frames and then suddenly it was gone. I am using the miniscule amount of knowledge I have gained reading here and am assuming that the eye is under clouds or it is in a replacement cycle. If it is doing an eye wall replacement, would this not indicate that this storm is a major?
Oh Oh, Brevard Emergency is on the tube. guess its orders to evacuate the barriers.
(taking a deep breath..thinking calming thoughts) How many more weeks of this???? think I could sleep through it?
Oh boy, there is Jeb baby.
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:18 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
........But this morning I noticed something. With Frances and Ivan the storms went through an eye wall replacement every day almost. I have not heard a mention to Jeanne doing this, yet I noticed on the visable and WV that the eye was clearly seen for several frames and then suddenly it was gone. I am using the miniscule amount of knowledge I have gained reading here and am assuming that the eye is under clouds or it is in a replacement cycle. If it is doing an eye wall replacement, would this not indicate that this storm is a major?
Had just noticed the same thing, then came back and read this post. Are we right?
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:19 AM |
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Another info source
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I think I got this link from this site during Charley. E-mails or cell phone info from Emergency E-mail
| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:23 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I1964 is the record year with 3.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Intresting enough, they already wrote up 2004:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Quote:
The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season officially started June 1, 2004, and will last until November 30, 2004. This is the period of the year that most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean.
The 2004 season has had numerous unusual occurrences. The first named storm of the season formed on August 1, giving the season the fifth-latest start since 1952. Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Charley became the first storms to hit the same U.S. state (Florida) in a 24 hour period since 1906. Florida continued to be hit by hurricanes with Hurricane Frances, the first time two hurricanes have hit the same state since the 1995 season.
Other storms were individually unusual. Hurricane Alex was the strongest hurricane to intensify north of 38 degrees. Hurricane Ivan went the other direction, becoming the first major hurricane on record to form at around the 10 degree latitude. Ivan then left a trail of destruction stretching from the Windward Islands to Alabama. One storm, Tropical Storm Earl, died out, crossed over into the Pacific Ocean, regenerated and became Hurricane Frank in the eastern Pacific.
August 2004 was unusually active, with eight named storms forming during the month. In an average year, only three or four storms would be named in August. The formation of eight named storms in August breaks the old record of seven for the month, set in the 1933 and 1995 seasons. It also ties with September 2002 for the most Atlantic tropical storms to form in any month.
And it's not over yet.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:26 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:...and speaking of the 'Tube'; I observed in the 8am official forecast discussion from the NHC the following:
Good Morning Everyone!
I have not been as diligent in watching this storm as I watched Frances and Ivan. School and life had to take front. But this morning I noticed something. With Frances and Ivan the storms went through an eye wall replacement every day almost. I have not heard a mention to Jeanne doing this, yet I noticed on the visable and WV that the eye was clearly seen for several frames and then suddenly it was gone. I am using the miniscule amount of knowledge I have gained reading here and am assuming that the eye is under clouds or it is in a replacement cycle. If it is doing an eye wall replacement, would this not indicate that this storm is a major?
Oh Oh, Brevard Emergency is on the tube. guess its orders to evacuate the barriers.
We are reminded that from Sundown tonight until Sundown Saturday is
yom kippur...a solemn jewish Holiday. Your jewish neighbors in the
watch and warning areas observing yom kippur will not be listening
to radios or watching TV...and may not be aware of the hurricane
situation.
I hope that their religious beliefs allow them to watch hurricane and other life saving information on the 'tube' will either forgive them for watching or allow them to make an exception.
If not, you and I need to remind them as neighbors and friends...just in case.
(and I see whatever case translating program was used, it doesn't recognize the "j' in Jewish should be capitalized as a proper noun)
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:31 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Jewish people have a provision for emergency situations in their code of living as this would not be recreational radio listening.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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That is interesting. I think when it all said and done, 2004 will hold a lot of records as the season has done what it wants to. Who knows they may retire half the list of names. I guess when Mother Nature wants it back, she just comes and gets it...
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:33 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Miami Dade county Mayor and the Jewish leader reminded the community to have radio etc on hand to keep an eye on the storm. So they do have a way to monitor wihtout breaking religous beliefs
| Roberta |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:40 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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First of all, I want to thank the owners and monitors of this board, who have for years now "kept my feet on the ground" regarding approaching hurricanes. Their "best guesses" have helped me with every storm as to whether evacuate or not, and my family just TRULY appreciates the hard work you all put in!
I am in Vero Beach, and there is still quite a bit of debri around from Frances, and am worried about this stuff becoming missiles in the wind of Jeanne.
We JUST got our power back on this past Saturday and I am still dealing with a horrendous kidney infection contracted in the aftermath of Frances and the unsanitary conditions we all had to deal with. 
None of us had power most of the month, but FPL STILL sent "estimated bills" which were only about $10 less than our usual...sooooo, we here in our neighborhood are really dreading what now seems to "the inevitable" and will be praying for others in Jeanne's path. What is most important is our safety...and THANK you all here for the good advice, both on meterological AND survival questions!
Waiting Anxiously For Winter!!
Bless You All (and Skeeter for his beautiful graphics!)
Roberta in Vero Beach
| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:41 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Reading up on theat site the last two years have been weird:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_notable_tropical_cyclones#Others
One storm in April and two in December. Wonder if that'll happen this year(It already beat April with March in South America)
Quote:
Pre-season forecasts
On May 17, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters predicted a 50% probability of activity above the normal range, with 12-15 tropical storms, 6-8 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of those hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Noted hurricane expert Dr. William Gray's May 28 prediction was similar, with 14 named storms, 8 reaching hurricane strength, and 3 reaching Category 3 strength.
On August 6, Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards, citing warmer oceans, to 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 reaching category 3. Several days later, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 45% probability of above-normal activity, but the same number of storms forecast.
A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 tropical storms, 4 to 8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 of those reaching Category 3 strength.
Uhh..So how "wrong" have they been so far? I find it funny they downgraded the forcast before all the "fun" began.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:44 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:I am relieved that this is the case. I don't happen to practice the Jewish faith so I truly didn't know. Some religions are quite strict on interpretation of their laws.
Miami Dade county Mayor and the Jewish leader reminded the community to have radio etc on hand to keep an eye on the storm. So they do have a way to monitor wihtout breaking religous beliefs
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:51 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Can anyone tell me why the 5am probablities are slightly higher that the eye will hit Ft. Myers and Marco Island instead of Ft. Lauderdale and Miami?
Confused yet again....
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:52 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Any religion that would encourage or even allow you to risk your safety does deserve a re-examination at best.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:52 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Thats a good question.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:53 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I dont get much sleep when situations like this happen. Landfall track is very hard to pinpoint still but its still on forecast as you see in my posts yesterday it will stablize near 26.1 and might even go under that briefly before a .1N every 6 hrs before the turn. Ill try to get to post more in a couple hours. Right now...time to relax have breakfest (sort of) and try to collect data before I rush out any thoughts.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:54 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I can not say that I have any disagreement at all with the NHC's path. I would say 60 miles either side is a very likely path. Just a reminder, don't focus on the line. If you are within 50-60 miles of this line, you should plan as if it is going to pass right over you.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:57 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
Can anyone tell me why the 5am probablities are slightly higher that the eye will hit Ft. Myers and Marco Island instead of Ft. Lauderdale and Miami?
Confused yet again....
I don't see that... for total probabilities Ft. Myers is at 14% and Miami is at 15%.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:01 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
First of all, I want to thank the owners and monitors of this board, who have for years now "kept my feet on the ground" regarding approaching hurricanes. Their "best guesses" have helped me with every storm as to whether evacuate or not, and my family just TRULY appreciates the hard work you all put in!
I am in Vero Beach, and there is still quite a bit of debri around from Frances, and am worried about this stuff becoming missiles in the wind of Jeanne.
None of us had power most of the month, but FPL STILL sent "estimated bills" which were only about $10 less than our usual...sooooo, we here in our neighborhood are really dreading what now seems to "the inevitable" and will be praying for others in Jeanne's path. What is most important is our safety...and THANK you all here for the good advice, both on meterological AND survival questions!
I echo your sentiments of appreciation. I think Ed, John and Mike truly deserve a mountain of praise and our support, support that they can use to buy more equipment and pay for their expenses in providing this truly unique and useful resource.
i also agree that those that contribute their time and effort to make posts that truly enlighten and educate us should also be thanked. I've been here a number of years, almost since Mike, et al, first started this board. During this time, I have greatly expanded my knowledge and in great part due to those like Scottvp, Clark, HankFrank, Frank P, and a host of others with good questions and reasoned thoughts like Colleen and to LI_Phil, one of the moderators that help guide our discussions.
Yes, a lot of thanks is owed by us all! Thanks to you all!
Now, about your power bill. I'd send them the $10 reduction and ESTIMATE the bill payment to cover it.... Seriously, request an ACTUAL meter reading and make them adjust the bill.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:03 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Well i guess he means that on earlier prediction, landfall would have been around ft. pierce and martin county. On newest prediction landfall is up north, around daytona beach...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:03 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:It deals with absolute distance at that moment in time and not predicting landfall points. The assumption is that if you are within 65 miles of the forecast center at that time, you would be affected, not necessarily take a direct hit.
Can anyone tell me why the 5am probablities are slightly higher that the eye will hit Ft. Myers and Marco Island instead of Ft. Lauderdale and Miami?
Confused yet again....
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:07 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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"I don't see that... for total probabilities Ft. Myers is at 14% and Miami is at 15%".
I'm not looking at total I'm looking at 48 hours out. From what I ahve learned here thats as far as I take the forcasting for now.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:08 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
Well i guess he means that on earlier prediction, landfall would have been around ft. pierce and martin county. On newest prediction landfall is up north, around daytona beach...
Be careful about drawing a straight line between points. Landfall is still predicted around Ft Pierce right now, not Daytona. Look at skeetobites curved map or the link for the NRL and their rounded paths. These are more accurate depictions of the course forecast.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:14 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
"I don't see that... for total probabilities Ft. Myers is at 14% and Miami is at 15%".
I'm not looking at total I'm looking at 48 hours out. From what I ahve learned here thats as far as I take the forcasting for
now.
That is the smarter thing to do, you're right.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:14 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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She's Wobbling - big time. No telling now.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:14 AM |
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probs keep going up for the keys too
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just a comment.. i do understand how it works and it is worth a raised eyebrow no matter how you mathematically explain it
| Ricreig |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:20 AM |
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Re: probs keep going up for the keys too
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Quote:You got that right! It isn't saying one point is more likely to be the landfall point, just that at the moment, it is more likely to be some absolute distance from the listed point. A storm, moving north might be closer to Miami at one point than say Ft Pierce, but it isn't saying Miami will be the landfall, just closer at some point in time to the current storm. Ft Pierce would still get the slam bam thankyou maam.
just a comment.. i do understand how it works and it is worth a raised eyebrow no matter how you mathematically explain it
The raised eyebrow is the best reaction to the NHC probabilities forecasts...If it makes you look and get more data, then its done its job. Good observation IHMO
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:21 AM |
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I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone!
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I'm sure you all saw a lot of footage of Pensacola on the news. We took an EXTREMELY bad hit here in Pensacola. The East quadrant of the Ivan eyewall went over Pensacola-which means we got NO break from the eye. We took a constant POUNDING from about 11PM Sept. 15 to about 5AM Sept. 16th. The wind gauge at Pensacola NAS hit 123mph before the gauge was destroyed. I JUST NOW got phone service. I'm running this computer on a generator. It's been a little over a week and no power yet. Ivan RUINED the main bridge on I-10 that I use just about every day. Traffic right now is KILLER. It takes over an hour for me to get where I want to go! My house survived despite the 10 trees down all over the property. I lost a few shingles-but I was very lucky compared to the folks down the road that live on the water....
One house on my street DISAPPEARED and several others lost EVERYTHING. The storm surge had to have been that of a Category 5 Hurricane! Ivan should have been kept as a 135mph CAT4 Hurricane right up to landfall because that's exactly the damage that it caused. 130mph CAT3 isn't at all different from a CAT4. The water came half way up my street. I never thought that would happen. INCREDIBLE. Fortunately it didn't make it this far up the street. Ivan surpassed all our expectations. Hurricane Opal was bad. Ivan was WORSE!! It's been literally a war zone around here. Gasoline is like gold.
It looks to me like Ivan's total bill will surpass that of Hurricane Andrew. Ivan was a HUGE storm compared to Andrew so the damage was more widespread. Not to mention-Ivan destoryed a major four lane highway bridge that folks from All over Florida to California use!!
I guess that's it for now. It's going to take a long time for folks here to get back to normal.
Jeanne--STAY AWAY! Do not touch Florida. Do NOT cross Florida. GO AWAY!!!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:22 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Wobbling and the eye has completely disappeared over the last hour. Not sure if this is significant or not... perhaps the dreaded ERC indicative of strengthening to a major hurricane. That's better answered by the experts on here.
AdmittedHacker
(still no witty phrase to insert here)
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:24 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
Wobbling and the eye has completely disappeared over the last hour. Not sure if this is significant or not... perhaps the dreaded ERC indicative of strengthening to a major hurricane. That's better answered by the experts on here.
AdmittedHacker
(still no witty phrase to insert here)
Not sure I see a wobble. Looks like she's still on 270 perhaps a little faster.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:25 AM |
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Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone!
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SirCane...glad to see you back posting which means that you are okay...I'm so sorry for the people who took a direct hit from Ivan...please know you are in my thoughts and prayers as well as all of those effected by Ivan.
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:28 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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After Charley, we also got an estimated bill.. which was hardly different from our normal bill.. with a note that it would be adjusted. When they finally DID read the meter, there was still little difference (even though power was off for 2 weeks and we are not living there right now). That's when I told my husband to shut off the air conditioner. He was leaving it on to guard against mold, etc .. but with no ceilings or insulation in most of the rooms, and holes in the sides.. I figure we were air conditioning all of Pt Charlotte!! Hope it goes down a BUNCH next month..
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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At what point will the confidence level (if any) of the track occur. My husband is supposed to leave the country for a week, but will stay if it looks bad for us. We are in SW Volusia County.
| heidib |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:32 AM |
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Estimated bill
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I live in Jupiter, where we were without electricity for 11 days. I am looking at my "estimated bill" and based on KWH usage, the bill looks pretty accurate and like they prorated out the 11 days we were without electric. However, if I only look at the total amount of the bill, it would look like we are paying too much. Maybe that explains why you might think your estimated bill is too high?
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:35 AM |
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Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone!
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Thanks Colleen....
Just happy to have made it through that rough night safely! That's the main thing. Some folks near the water that should have evacuated-but didn't-didn't make it.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:35 AM |
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Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone!
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Quote:
SirCane...glad to see you back posting which means that you are okay...I'm so sorry for the people who took a direct hit from Ivan...please know you are in my thoughts and prayers as well as all of those effected by Ivan.
SirCane, I couldn't have said it better. I see a lot of 'Camille' in the pictures I see coming from your area and I *know* the job ahead of you and your neighbors. I pray for your strength to be enough to recover your lives. I know that it will *never* be 'normal', whatever that is, again. It will become the norm, but what you knew as normal won't ever happen again. Even if everything was rebuilt exactly as it was, you will never forget Ivan. But, you will learn to cope with and maybe even enjoy the new 'normal' in time. I did with Camille, and I suspect strongly that you and your neighbors will also after Ivan. I pray that this is the case.
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:38 AM |
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Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone!
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It's difficult enough seeing what Charley did to Punta Gorda and Pt Charlotte.. and adjusting to life that will never be quite the same again. I can't imagine what it must be like in Pensacola... at least we didn't have the storm surge and it was all over pretty quickly. Still, the devastation is hard to imagine.. I know that pictures of our area only tell part of the story.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:38 AM |
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Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone!
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Funny I was without power for a couple days,,,got my electric bill and it was higher then normal. Maybe they increase the outage price slightly to compensate for their loss in earnings during power outages. I would doubt that but I though of it the other day and with everyone saying their bills are the same or more without power,, makes you skeptical.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:38 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:With that criteria for staying, I think your husband should stay with you.
At what point will the confidence level (if any) of the track occur. My husband is supposed to leave the country for a week, but will stay if it looks bad for us. We are in SW Volusia County.
At this point in time, NOONE knows where it will go, but I think the confidence that this area will be affected. The question is more 'How bad' than 'IF". Both of you will feel better if it is possible for him to delay leaving for a few days.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:38 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Yes, it still looks to be going west...maybe a little bit faster than 8mph. Guess we'll find out soon enough....
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:41 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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New spaghetti model up.
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:41 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Jeanne is a crazy, crazy girl!
Jeanne has come just about full circle. On monday her position was 26 Lat 71.9 long and now this am she is at 26.1 Lat 72 Long.
(If I have been reading her position right! My eyes not as good as they used to be!)
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:41 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Where's that hex guy? My house (and insurance) in Deltona CANNOT take another hit. I understand they are saying that if the power goes off again, it will take even longer to get it all restored again.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:42 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I suspect any change will be minor. Really have not seen any changes that would make me think there would be a major update in the forecast. Granted, when I think that way, some big update usually happens and surprises me.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:43 AM |
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Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone!
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I was stationed at correy station in 1979 when in navy and thought penacola was one of the nicest places around. How bad is it there off of beach. I know it had to be real bad at beach. I to will be praying this latest storm will curve back out to see I have family in Ft Lauderdale.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:43 AM |
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Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone!
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Thanks Ricreig....
That's exaclty what people have compared Ivan to-even though Ivan didn't hit as a CAT 5. The surge looked like a CAT 5 surge though-maybe because Ivan was a CAT5 for so long at one time. We're trying to get back to normal around here but it's very difficult. As long as Jeanne stays away-we'll be ok.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:43 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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yeah dry air has entrained into the center right now. No strengthning expected for the next 12 hours but later tonight into the morning is when I feel a more modest strengthning faze to go into affect. Warmer ssts ahead of her, good outflow, and more moisture in the mid layers. The dry air is being entrained into her from the strong ridge to its NNW diving se. This ridge is also why she has nudged just s of due west over the last 2 hrs but I think they will keep her at w movement.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:44 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I don't think it's an eyewall replacement cycle. Just some clouds covering the eye which has happened a couple of times each day. One thing I did see on both the infrared and WV loops is a nice patch of white(WV)/blue(IR) getting wrapped in around the eye. Could be a little of that surrounding dry air.
Edit-LOL, looks like Scott beat me to it.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:48 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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At first glance, appears to be a very light adjustment to the west at 11:00.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:49 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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ETA (again not a good hurricane tracking model to use but better then the tropical model suites) 12z run is out showing a more southerly route compared to the 6z run. Now showing inland near WPB in 36hrs across to Sarasota-Ft Myers by 48hrs.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:49 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Some convection really beginning to fire now. Scotsvb/Colleen/RAS, what intensity do yous forecast for her at the peak? SSTs are warm west of her, just wondering what or if any shear will develop before if gets near the coast. Does anyone still feel she will cross the peninsula?? Anxious in Palm Bay...No time to check models, thanks!
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:51 AM |
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11AM Track is out..
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Waiting on Discussion..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:52 AM |
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then again as a trend the probs are great
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for example... when they were insisting Ivan was going to hit the West Coast of Florida or Big Bend area and bend back towards the NE there were no probs for New Orleans.
New probs came out and suddenly New Orleans had a low prob.
Didn't mean to me that New Orleans was going to get the storm but did indicate that there was some question as to how far left the track might be shifted.
for example...... oh and of course soon after we began to hear about Mobile
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:52 AM |
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Morning All...
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Well, just got through reading everyone's posts from midnight thru now...excellent work all...to SirCane and everyone still feeling the wrath of Ivan, my prayers and thoughts continue to go out to you...scott & Richard & Colleen sure burned the midnight oil and kept things from getting crazy...thanks to you guys...
The "hex" guy is the Rabbit...if there was ever a time for the patented "Rabbit Voodoo Hex" [tm HF], that time is now...the new and updated definition of the Rabbit Voodoo Hex (maybe Mike will include it with the other 'terms' like wishcasting and wave mongering) is:
Rabbit Voodoo Hex: The weakening and/or complete dissolution of an otherwise healthy system for no apparent reason.
Bugs, if you're out there, work your magic.
Anyhoo...things may be looking up this morning, emphasis on may...too many variables right now...11:00 is probably out, so I need to look at that right now.
Thanks to all who praised the site...Mike, John & Ed do an outstanding job...welcome to all new new members...and thanks for the great job by the long time members!
Back at 'cha in a bit.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:53 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I am pretty much along with NHC on this one. Looks like 110-120MPH will be her peak winds, imho. I think she will be closer to 100-110 at landfall myself.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:55 AM |
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Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone!
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I can't imagine going through Ivan at night....that must have been extremely frightening. Why do they always seem to make landfall at 4am?
I read about the people who decided to stay and didn't make it. Unfortunately, some people are willing to risk their lives to avoid the inconvenience of evacuating or they just think that they will make it through it. That's very sad, but it happens too often even though they are warned to leave. If an offical came to my house telling me that if I don't evacuate I'd have to give them the name of the next of kin, that would jolt me to the core.
Is the hassle of evacuating worth your life? Do they think of the people that love them that they are leaving behind? Maybe it's just me, but I don't think I could do that to my family. However, it's still very sad.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:56 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Moron on TWC said 969 miles per hour,LOL. I know it was a slip of the tounge mistake,, but just think of the 1s who heard him say that and dont know much about the weather. THEY ARE FREAKING AND IM SURE TELLING PEOPLE AT WORK AND THE STORES,,TWC SAID ITS 969MILES AN HOUR NOW!!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:57 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:Scott,
ETA (again not a good hurricane tracking model to use but better then the tropical model suites) 12z run is out showing a more southerly route compared to the 6z run. Now showing inland near WPB in 36hrs across to Sarasota-Ft Myers by 48hrs.
Last night your forecast, with which I agreed BTW, called for an East Coast Florida track +/- a dozen or so miles from the coast. Are you still leaning that way or are you toying with the idea of a 'Frances' transversal of the Central Florida area?
Me, I'm definitely toying with that idea more and more. I'm not ready to buy that package just yet, but I'm increasingly becoming an 'easy sale' customer. I'm guilty of turning *hope* into *forecast" using the same criteria I warn others against: "Because it hurts ME less" models. I continue to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Best = fewest people affected,with the least damage
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:57 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Wooooooo! 969 MPH! Is that Cat 10?
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:58 AM |
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Storms at night
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Quote:
I can't imagine going through Ivan at night.
Are there actually hurricanes that make landfall during the day? I can't think of any. I think that is my prediction. Jeanne will hit at night.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:58 AM |
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re: richard person and the wv..
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takes a long, long time to really understand all the nuiances of the water vapor imagery
it is often mentioned as a tool by some of the better forecasters at the NHC in discussion
it is not used alone but it will often show you what is evolving in different levels of the atmosphere when you move back and forth between other sats and obs
the storm will move in the atmosphere whichever way it is easiest.. as many have said "like something dropped into a stream" so while on IR and VIS something may look tougher than nails or about to erode... the water vapor shows an evolving pattern that will often become tomorrows IR or VIS
And...yes as you said you have to know what to adjust for when looking at it. Because as with most things online "what you see is not always what you get"
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:59 AM |
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Re: then again as a trend the probs are great
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Quote:Your reasoning and conclusions are right on! That's how it should have been viewed, IMO.
for example... when they were insisting Ivan was going to hit the West Coast of Florida or Big Bend area and bend back towards the NE there were no probs for New Orleans.
New probs came out and suddenly New Orleans had a low prob.
Didn't mean to me that New Orleans was going to get the storm but did indicate that there was some question as to how far left the track might be shifted.
for example...... oh and of course soon after we began to hear about Mobile
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:59 AM |
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Re: Storms at night
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Quote:
Quote:
I can't imagine going through Ivan at night.
Are there actually hurricanes that make landfall during the day? I can't think of any. I think that is my prediction. Jeanne will hit at night.
Charley made landfall around 4:00 in the afternoon.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:04 AM |
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Jeanne discussion
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http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt1.html
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:06 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
ETA (again not a good hurricane tracking model to use but better then the tropical model suites) 12z run is out showing a more southerly route compared to the 6z run. Now showing inland near WPB in 36hrs across to Sarasota-Ft Myers by 48hrs.
Scott, the 11 a.m. discussion mentions possible movement south of due west. Would this support those models like ETA and NOGAPS, that take Jeanne across the peninsula? Or is this southward motion expected to be short-lived?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:06 AM |
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her track...
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she doesnt seem to be wobbling... someone said that a page before and trying to see what they mean.. if anything her eye seems to be wrapped better and maybe bigger .. looking at discussion will see.. dont see wobbling tho, see west
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:09 AM |
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Re: her track...
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i think the 11am discussion also said it would be a short lived short of west movement...
never thought I would look forward to the end of hurricane season...
troy
cocoa beach
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:09 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Where'd you get the discussion from? It's not on the NHC site yet.
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:09 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Well, then at least we could be SURE the rest of what's left of St. Lucie County would blow away.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:10 AM |
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Re: her track...
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Quote:Lois,
she doesnt seem to be wobbling... someone said that a page before and trying to see what they mean.. if anything her eye seems to be wrapped better and maybe bigger .. looking at discussion will see.. dont see wobbling tho, see west
I've seen several of your posts and they are really good. I just wish you'd register so I can PM you
(My first girlfriend's name was Lois and I'm on the prowl <grin>) Seriously, take the plunge, you'd be a asset here I think.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:10 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
Where'd you get the discussion from? It's not on the NHC site yet.
Weather Underground. They always seem to have it up before the NHC.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:10 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:10 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Even though Im not a fan of the ETA it I feel has the right idea on the movement of Jeanne for THIS RUN. ETA and of course other models will change from run to run but its showing when crossing florida a general turn to the wnw then nw in the gulf and NO NNW or N turn. I mean lets face it, didnt we learn from Charley on seeing what Bonnie did. Should we have seen that since Bonnie went more ene then shouldnt charley turn sooner? Well with Ivan going into LA,TX boarder he basically went wnw-nw around the ridge diving into the midatlantic region. Shouldnt Jeanne do the same instead of going more NNW or N almost immediatly when getting near the coast. Where is the strong trough that is suppose to do that? Its just that its forecasted to move around the ridge and the ridge is suppose to orient in a more NNW-SSE fashion, which i feel it will be alittle flatter cause there is no strong trough it squeeze the ridge. There is a trough that will go thru the great lakes region into the NE over the weekend but nothing I feel to really cause such a turn. My forecast remains the same with it coming near WPB then moving inland with a gradual turn towards the NW over the state then (giving some respect to the eastern models) a turn more towards the north over central florida. I wouldnt be surprised more if it doesnt get into the gulf. Im not saying it will defidently come inland but I dont see it missing (if it does) florida by more then 50 miles. My track on the 11am NHC is just alittle west of theirs.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:11 AM |
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would this support that?
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yes becky.. it would
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:13 AM |
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Re: her track...
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I think I'm seeing a slight elongation in the last frames... pointing to the west. Could be inexperinced eyeballs, though.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:14 AM |
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Re: would this support that?
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Quote:
yes becky.. it would
People in this area are worried ever since Charley, and I think with good reason. We've seen firsthand how unpredictable hurricanes can be. If there is a chance Jeanne will go across the state and affect the west coast, I hope that sources like NHC or TWC begin to speak of it earlier rather than later, giving us more time to prepare.
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:15 AM |
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Re: Storms at night
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Charley hit in the middle of the day.. we had just eaten my "birthday dinner". Waited until it was over to have birthday cake.. by then the candles were a necessity!
In 1976, my husband and I went through a Supertyphoon (Typhoon Pam) on Guam .. 12 hours, 200 knot winds with an eye that took 3 hours to pass over. The first part of that one also hit in the middle of the day. We could see the whole thing from the school where I was a shelter nurse.
So it does sometimes happen in daylight!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:16 AM |
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for people watching probs
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miami is up to 19 in overall probs
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:16 AM |
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Re: Storms at night
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stewart again said some of the same things I posted earlier.,..hold on hes calling me and wanting to know what to put in the 2pm discussion,,,,,brb LOL jk.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:18 AM |
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speaking of it earlier... sooner rather than later
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nhc has made mention time and again to the stubborn nogaps that continues more westbound than the others... and its available to the public
if the gfdl or gfs models would agree with nogaps youd see sudden talk everywhere
just the eta model info has been mentioned
trust me if you live in miami or our general area you would know norcross will mention it
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:20 AM |
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Re: for people watching probs
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yes and Daytona is now up to 21, I live 20 miles in from the coast of Daytona. woooooo!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:21 AM |
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for scott
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tell him when you call that I got the part about leaving a radio on... will leave a tv on a chosen channel in the "back room" which I hope will be there after sundown on saturday night (jeanne seems to speed up a drop) and we do thank him for his concern and sorry but i will be offline and unavailable for discussion until after sundown Sat. nite. Phone lines permitting
thanks
ps...anyone who wants me knows where to find me.. as we have witnessed in the past during the high holidays.
| CJ |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:22 AM |
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Re: Storms at night
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Charley hit at 3:30 in the afternoon.
You can see how far MissBecky and I live from each other...30 minutes as the hurricane crawls...
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:23 AM |
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Re: speaking of it earlier... sooner rather than later
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Unfortunately most people probably couldn't find NOGAPS. And despite all the NHC has said about not focusing on the line of the track, people still do just that. I know a girl who, on the afternoon Charley hit, decided to watch a movie instead of keeping the local news on. She told me that the last she had heard, the track took the hurricane into Tampa and not Ft. Myers, so she decided things would be okay. I'm not saying everyone is like that, but many people will wait until the last minute to make preparations. If they are urged to do so earlier, hopefully some will listenand take action.
I agree that your posts are great, Lois. Thanks!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:26 AM |
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Re: for scott
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scottsvb has been uncanny with these storms recently...will give you a free pass on Earl...we all thought that would be something...
been trolling my major sources for predictions & updates, and unfortunately, the news isn't good...and a lot in line with what scott has been saying.
With the Haitian death toll rising steadily, and the Bahamas her next target as a likely CAT III, I don't think Jeanne is going to be on the list in 2010...
There's a killer on the road
Her brain is squirmin' like a toad
Take a long holiday
Let your children play
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:29 AM |
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Speed at Landfall
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What are the latest estimates for how fast Frances...er... Jeanne will be moving when she makes landfall? Not windspeed, but forward motion?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:30 AM |
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Re: for scott
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Well I got the general direction on earl, just I thought it would slow down some to let it organize. It didnt. So I count that as a X. I get 1-2 a year. So im due again before the season ends maybe.
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:31 AM |
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Curious about FSU Model
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Maybe I've just been distracted by all of the post-Ivan activities in my neck of the woods, but I haven't heard much about what the FSU Superensemble is doing with Jeanne. As I recall, it was the FSU model that first moved many meteorological eyes toward the FL/AL border during Ivan 1.0. Does anyone know what their latest projections are leaning toward?
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:32 AM |
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Re: Morning All...
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Quote:Scottsvb and Colleen were the driving force last night. My night was yesterday
...scott & Richard & Colleen sure burned the midnight oil and kept things from getting crazy...thanks to you guys...
I did wake up about 6:30 and couldn't resist the urge to toss in a thought or two during the moring though. Shoot, you gotta sleep too guy. Glad to see you back online, and like you, am truly happy to see SirCane back online.
| CJ |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:34 AM |
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Re: for scott
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Quote:
There's a killer on the road
Her brain is squirmin' like a toad
Take a long holiday
Let your children play
Another former Florida resident...Jim Morrison (went to FSU for a while). Riders on the Storm...should be made the theme song for Florida.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:34 AM |
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Re: Curious about FSU Model
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Yeah, I'd be curious about that one myself...hopefully Clark will pop in soon and give us all a little insider info...
Kal, are you going to have a new superman avatar each day? LOL!
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:34 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:Where exactly does one go to look at the ETA track? I don't see it on either the wunderground multi-model plot or the CFHC multi-model plot -- unless it's another one of those confusing models with more than one name/acronym (like the AVN/GFS).
Even though Im not a fan of the ETA it I feel has the right idea on the movement of Jeanne for THIS RUN.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:36 AM |
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Re: for scott
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I read Scott's forecast yesterday, and was thinking along the same lines with regard to Jeanne coming in further south and not tracking almost the due north that many of the current models have her doing. With Francis, the inability of the models to get a grasp on the ridge strength and movement had her tracking much too far north for a few runs. I think it will end up being the same with Jeanne. And I don't see a straight north track occuring either, more like an arc. Also, the GFS hasn't had the best track run this year, and therein lies the problem with many of the forecasts because I believe they're used in conjunction with the GFS grid.
| LI Phil |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:36 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:36 AM |
Help please
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Could someone provide a link to the Storm Surge Zone for Brevard County.
I looked all over here:
http://embrevard.com/
and couldn't find it.
Thanks!!!
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:38 AM |
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Re: for scott
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Quote:
Where is the strong trough that is suppose to do that? Its just that its forecasted to move around the ridge and the ridge is suppose to orient in a more NNW-SSE fashion, which i feel it will be alittle flatter cause there is no strong trough it squeeze the ridge.
I agree, scottsvb. The trough over the central US looks rather unimpressive to me. The GFDL and GFS are overdoing its influence on the ridge. Such a sharp hook to the N and NE seems implausible to me. Both these models had the same problem with Frances. I think the UKMET is producing the best track right now...very similar to Frances' track. I'm not sure that Jeanne will enter the GOM, but I do believe it will track farther west than the current NHC forecast, unfortunately for Florida.
We should not be focusing on the NHC's exact track anyway. It constantly bothers me that local TV stations place so much emphasis on this track. TWC does a much better job by not displaying the exact forecast track, but rather only "cone of error." Focusing too much on the exact forecast track has caused many people here in west-central Florida to believe that Charley was a bad forecast because of the slight NNE turn toward landfall. In reality, it was an excellent forecast by the NHC and within the typical margin of error.
Ronn
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:39 AM |
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Re: for scott
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LI Phil would you stop typing and start sucking again!
You and Scottsvb keep putting it to close to wxmanrichie and I not to mention the other handfull of So. Floridians on this board.
Hey if you believe in rabbit hexes I can believe in the sucking idea.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:40 AM |
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Re: Help please
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here is one set: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/atlas.html
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:40 AM |
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Intensity
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Steve, I'm just going to give a stab at this: I think the intensity will depend on how far west and south Jeanne is in the next couple of days, as the waters are warmer near WPB/Ft.LAUDERDALE than further north up the coast. Also keep in mind that if she crosses over Lake Okeechobee, the water temps there are in the 80-82 degree area, which of course would let Jeanne keep her "energy" as she moves inland.
Notice how the models are not taking that sharp north turn, it seems that they have rounded out a little bit.
I think that she'll make landfall as a minimum CAT 3. However, THIS part of the discussion really caught my attention:
Quote:
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. UPPER-AIR DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE A DEEP-LAYER HIGH/RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WHICH IS SOUTHEAST OF MOST OF THE NHC MODEL FORECAST POSITIONS... ESPECIALLY THE UKMET...THAT ARE VALID AT THAT TIME. ALSO...THE
MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE BACKED AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...SOME WEAK RIDGING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND IT OVER AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH MAY ACT TO FORCE JEANNE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE SHORT TERM. BASED ON THE TRENDS NOTED IN THE 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...EVEN THOUGH THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
Why did that catch my attention: because if I am reading this correctly (and anyone feel free to correct me) the NHC models have this High/Ridge further north than it actually IS based on the actual information they are seeing.
A "tad" to the west is more than that: 30 miles onshore instead of 30 miles offshore will make a big difference on how much impact Jeanne will have on the state of Florida.
Ok, now I'll take my "I Am Not A Meteorologist But I Do Play One on CFHC" hat off and leave it to the experts.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:40 AM |
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Re: for scott
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remember that the NHC changes their tracks every 6hrs. Alot of mets change theirs the same from each leadforcaster in the NWS offices. They also coordinate at times with other citys NWS locations. That helps alot to get on the same page. JB tries to stick on a certain path but he does have the right to change his paths I feel every 12-24 hrs. I post mine up to 3 days out and my path is a very narrow 50-100 mile swath while JB usually does up to 200 miles and the NHC does around the same for a 3 day period. Should I change my track then every 12 hrs? Yeah I should but right now I dont feel I need to change it. I might though later this evening if I feel necessary. I do believe ANY FORECASTER needs to give the public 24hrs notice on a good 50 mile area landfall and that is just my opinion and that is very small area. They can go up to 100 if they feel needed. Reason the NHC or NWS dont like to say it will hit a certain area for sure is cause we dont want people to say " I thought you said 5 days ago it would hit in my town on my street at my address at my master bedroom location" Of course thats to the extreme and a joke but people do say things like that for forecasts more then 3 days out. Anyways thats why the NHC adjusts theirs tracks every 6 hrs in compliance to the data they recieve and the models. My 3 day forecasts are just best guesses. If they hold up then I did my best, if not, then what do people expect from 12x the amount of time I give out my landfall to the NHC. I always though post out a 24 hr landfall adjusted spot before landfall within 50 miles. That will come tonight if I feel I need to change it.
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:41 AM |
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Re: for scott
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I don't know much about these things, but what if we all got on the beach around Melbourne or somewhere and just started blowing .. could we generate enough hot air or something to make it go away??
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:42 AM |
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Re: Help please
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Quote:
Could someone provide a link to the Storm Surge Zone for Brevard County.
I looked all over here:
http://embrevard.com/
and couldn't find it.
Thanks!!!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/atlas.html
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:44 AM |
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Re: for scott
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Quote:Kent,
LI Phil would you stop typing and start sucking again!
You and Scottsvb keep putting it to close to wxmanrichie and I not to mention the other handfull of So. Floridians on this board.
Hey if you believe in rabbit hexes I can believe in the sucking idea.
Just remember, you gotta know who butters the bread
It's all cool, Richard...little running joke there...
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:46 AM |
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Re: Curious about FSU Model
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Sorry about the revolving avatars. I've never been completely satisfied with my image choices...until now. The fact is that Ivan knocked out my cable, and I've been under a government enforced curfew up until last night. In short, I've had a LOT of free time Phil.
Good thing my honeymoon starts this weekend or I'd go stir crazy.I look forward to any news Clark has from FSU.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:49 AM |
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Re: for scott
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Hey...not a bad idea...I am the safety director for my company and in charge of "Hurricane Preparedness".
My boss told me to "make Ivan go away" so I did a little dance, held up my "talk to the hand" hand and boom - it didn't impact Central Florida. Maybe if we all go do the coast and hold up our hands....On another note - I love this site. I could not have survived advising my company (we deliver all over the state of FL) if not for you guys. Thanks so much!!!!!
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:51 AM |
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Re: Curious about FSU Model
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http://www.met.fsu.edu/wxstation/mainpage.html
Many of these links are not working, though...does anyone have a better link?
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:51 AM |
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Re: for scott
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Does anyone see this storm reaching the gulf ?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:52 AM |
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Re: for scott
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I think the only hope we would have is if we got every single politician in this country to make a long line up and down the east coast of Florida and blow all THEIR hot air towards Jeanne. That might work, but......
Then we'd have to hear hours and hours of who did the best job of blowing Jeanne away and the talking heads would do polls to see who had more hot air to blow than others.
I just don't see that working.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:53 AM |
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Re: for scott
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Yeah Phil,
Start sucking this storm up that way. You need to help out another Yankee fan. I need my power on so I can watch the Yanks beat up on the Sux again this weekend.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:54 AM |
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What If....
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Jeanne threads the needle between the two Bahama Island chains to her north and south? Hmmm....
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:56 AM |
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Interesting to note..
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I found it interesting that Tampa has a higher probability of seeing Jeanne than Jacksonville in the NHC probability chart.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT1+shtml/241441.shtml?
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:56 AM |
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Re: for scott
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If we got the politicans AND the media to coordinate their hot air against Jeanne, we might actually get some results... At this point we Floridians are willing to give anything a shot.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:58 AM |
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Re: for scott
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I agree with you 100% Richard. No disrespect intended! LI Phil is the ultimate bread butterer here. Thats why I BELIEVE he has the power to do what I asked...
Seriously though It was an exchage that LI Phil allowed here because he knows how much tension we are all going through. He knows when to let us vent a little.
It really starts to wear on you...expecially when you are tring to get your 80 year old mother to come down to Ft. Laud. from Vero Beach. Sure would hate to have her come here if she would have been safer there.
I think I may be having some Hurricane Andrew flashbacks as well. It seems to me I remember looking due west at that monster too.
sigh
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:59 AM |
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Re: for scott
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LOL....maybe Dan Rather could do it for us...that would give him a shot at keeping his "good reputation", LOL...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:01 PM |
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Re: for scott
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Quote:Colleen, that is the best solution to two major problems I have seen in a while. First, it would probably blow Jeanne back to the other side of Africa, and second, if it failed to work as you suggested in your last sentence, then, at a minimum, it might change the direction of the storm enough to deflect the storm surge to the area occupied by the politicians lining the shore and eliminate the 2nd problem before it gets starated...again.
I think the only hope we would have is if we got every single politician in this country to make a long line up and down the east coast of Florida and blow all THEIR hot air towards Jeanne. That might work, but......
Then we'd have to hear hours and hours of who did the best job of blowing Jeanne away and the talking heads would do polls to see who had more hot air to blow than others.
I just don't see that working.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:05 PM |
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St. Lucie County
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St. Lucie County is looking for shelter help. It seems they only have 4 shelters for the entire county that can open. All the other shelters were too damaged from Frances.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:06 PM |
Have to tell all of you... I am not happy
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I don't like being told that what I see with my own eyes and the knowledge that I do possess and being told to rely on a blending of ALL the models of which many are inconsistant.
Really sorry here but I want analysis.. not explanation of models. I wanted it in 1996.. now I understand the models and I have to tell you something... they are inconsistent fickle lovers. Best left at the altar. You find the model that is reading the situation the best...the environment.. both high and lows and wind flow and you watch it more carefully than the others. If it aint broken dont fix it and if it isn't working..don't use it.
Right now the ridge is stronger than it is being read. As said by Stewart who is one of the all time best (in my opinon) and if you look at the WV (which we use BECAUSE it shows better pics of the HIGHS) you will see there is a big problem and it isn't in Houston..
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:08 PM |
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back to the Reality
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I suppose the models will start trending the storm either more north or more westward. That High appears to want to travel along with Jeanne and slam her along the eastern coast. I am not convinced that the weakness in the ridge will be forceful enough to push Jeanne northward, but I guess I must wiat for the models to get updated and do indeed look forward to the 5PM update from the NHC.
South Florida could now be at greater risk for this, but eventually we will all feel hurricane winds along the coast.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:08 PM |
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Re: for scott
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Quote:See, that just goes to show you that even a good suggestion can be improved...good suggestion....should we add Lawyers, motorcycle cops with a quota and other otherwise useless.....
If we got the politicans AND the media to coordinate their hot air against Jeanne, we might actually get some results... At this point we Floridians are willing to give anything a shot.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:10 PM |
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Re: Interesting to note..
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The NHC probablilities often confuse people. They do not represent the probablilty of a direct hit for a given location, but rather the chance of the hurricane passing within 65 nautical miles of the listed locations from now to 48 hours from now. Since locations in southern FL are closer to Hurricane Jeanne at the moment, then their probabilities will be higher. It does not necessarily mean that there is a greater chance she will hit there. Only that she will come close to these areas sooner.
| TIGER |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:10 PM |
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JUST FOR EVERYONE'S INFO
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I just came back from 'trying' to pick up a few things. Store shelves are almost totally empty. There were only 2 little votive candles to be had in a whole store.
I was told no deliveries were going to be made tomorrow that they knew of.Gas stations have 3 rows (minimum of 7 cars each) of cars sitting waiting to get gas and it was only the morning, omg!
I saw people on the side of the road last weekend trying to sell their used plywood, lmao, BET THEY'RE SORRY NOW!
On another note, as usual, all of you on this site give the best information available, and I thank you all immensely for that, you're all FANTASTIC
!!!!!!!!! My son is constantly saying 'You're not on that site again are you Mom?', or 'Let me guess, you're gonna go on your hurricane site!', LMAO!!!MY BEST WISHES TO EVERYONE OUT THERE WHO IS IN THE PATH OF THIS ONE TOO, GOD BLESS YOU AND YOURS, AND TRY TO REMEMBER........MATERIAL THINGS ARE REPLACEABLE (as hard as it may be), BUT FAMILY AND FRIENDS AREN'T! IF WE HAVE A LOVED ONE TO HUG, WE ARE THE LUCKIEST PERSON IN THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!
| Ricreig |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:12 PM |
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Re: for scott
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Quote:No disirespect perceived and I've been following the 'inside joke' Phil
I agree with you 100% Richard. No disrespect intended! LI Phil is the ultimate bread butterer here. Thats why I BELIEVE he has the power to do what I asked...
We need a breath of fresh air here occasionally, just not ones supplied by Jeanne and her ilk. Yours Kent, is the right kind. (unless you have a storm named after you in the future)
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:12 PM |
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Re: for scott
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Great suggestion Richard
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:12 PM |
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Re: Have to tell all of you... I am not happy
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Lois, it's entirely (and likely) possible that I'm reading this wrong...but on the Unisys map...it looks to me like the southern part of the ridge is moving faster than the northern section? Does anyone else see this?
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:16 PM |
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colleen
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i read what you read... we all do
we also read that even tho the models are not measuring the strength of the del marva high which you can read WELL on WV becuase it is MUCH darker than the dark black that it is in and btw...its moving south and a bit west of south which builds the high's nose out to the west more keeping that much expected curve to the NW in question
WV shows best not moisture as much as lack of moisture and... I heard they were hoping that the high would build in around the back side of Jeanne and help to lift/kick her up more to the NW and NNW but when you look at the http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
you see showers beginning to form instead of high pressure to the SE of her
I would think THAT is a problem
Going back to the visible which I do use btw..
Wondering what the 5 will show in track.
and...WHEN pray tell are they posting a warning?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
seems to be speeding up
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
any thoughts colleen?
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:18 PM |
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Re: Have to tell all of you... I am not happy
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For those of us lurking in the background, what is the impact of that?
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:19 PM |
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Re: Curious about FSU Model
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Speaking of links:
Can anyone provide the best link where I can take a look at that "inverted trough"?
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:19 PM |
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define southern part of the ridge?
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do you mean the western part?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:20 PM |
Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone!
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[quote It's been literally a war zone around here.
I just got back from Pensacola and I agree with this! My daughter goes to Pensacola Christian College. She caught a ride home Friday night and had to be back on campus on Monday. Traffic was horrendous! But the town looks like a third world country. No signs. No billboards. No landmarks. Bricks peeled off buildings. Tree's uprooted, leaning and some just snapped off like toothpicks at 4 ft from the ground. The devastation in Pensacola is unbelievable.
I'm in Central Florida and definately have Hurricane Fatigue ... but after seeing Pensacola and the damage Ivan did there, I'll never take one complacently !!!!!!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:21 PM |
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Re: for scott
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Quote:Thank you, thank you, (taking a bow), but it isn't *my* suggestion unfortunately. My mind can't conceive of such emminantly PRACTICAL ideas <grin>
Great suggestion Richard
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:21 PM |
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Re: Have to tell all of you... I am not happy
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I agree, Lois. The GFS and GFDL did a horrble job with Frances: they underdid the strength and position of the High and it looks to me as if they are doing it again with Jeanne. If I remember correctly,the UKMET and the NOGAPS pretty much nailed it.
Chief Met Tom Terry from Channel 9 in Orlando just said that if he had to place a dollar on which models to use, he would put his money on the UKMET and NOGAPS because the GFS/GFDL do not do well with upper air environments. Why the NHC puts so much credence in these two models baffles me, when UKMET and NOGAPS have been pretty consistent run to run. Go figure.
Also....as you said, what we see with our own eyes is more informative than what the models "project". At least when we're looking with our own eyes, what we see is what we get.
And I think we are getting Jeanne.
Just heard that mandatory evacuations for the barrier islands and manufactured/mobile homes in Brevard County will begin at 6:00am tomorrow morning. Also a curfew (didn't get the times) will begin tomorrow and alcohol sales will be stopped tomorrow also.
Here we go again.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:22 PM |
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just a note
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anyone see "ivan"....this morning....is it me or is it moving back south now? i am looking at radar and last few hrs i thought i saw a movement of around 160-140 or so....did he not like his stay in texas? just food for thought!
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:22 PM |
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Re: define southern part of the ridge?
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Quote:
do you mean the western part?
Yes. The part that moves over Florida in the loop.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:23 PM |
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funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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calm.. joking around a bit, discussion of what everyone is going to do depending on varous situations
either everyone is in denial, doesnt read discussion only advisories..waits for bryan at 5 or has a good handle on how to handle a hurricane threat
then again.. we are in the bottom of the cone and no one has a hurricane warning
are we all on top of it or is ignorance bliss?
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:23 PM |
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Re: for scott
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NEw path was on Channel 6 here. landfall 6 amish in melbourne florida. Ugh I am only 45 miles from there. EOC's are opening here and there. But these people seem to be very weary of these storms. State of Emerrgencies go in effect 12:01 am saturday and they inacted a curfew in brevard county. Stay tuned were gonna get another battering.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:24 PM |
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Re: define southern part of the ridge?
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yes...that part is what may push her a little south of due west in the SHORT TERM
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:25 PM |
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Re: define southern part of the ridge?
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One question, Why doesn't the TPC site show Melbourne as one of its probabilities? They have Cocoa Beach then Fort Pierce. Thats a pretty good driving distance. :?:
| MissBecky |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:25 PM |
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Re: define southern part of the ridge?
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Quote:
yes...that part is what may push her a little south of due west in the SHORT TERM
Thanks, Lois. I'm trying to learn how to read these maps and interpret them properly.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:25 PM |
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Re: just a note
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Yeah many including accuweather are forecasting Ivan to reemmerge into the Gulf on Monday and then go NE towards the same area he originally hit. Amazing storm. Focus is though and should be on Jeanne. I am starting to get concerned about a path across FL into the Gulf again.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:26 PM |
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Re: FSU
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anyone heard from clark about fsu run.... i also agree that nogaps and ukmet did better with frances on that "darn high" to the east and the fsu ran pretty close to nogaps for awhile even with that "bad data" from the dropsondes one day..... i am seeing a south florida landfall at this point..... and a possible gom entry.....
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:26 PM |
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Re: Have to tell all of you... I am not happy
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Well the nhc likes the GFDL model, which is basically a run off of the GFS data. CMC has come more inline again the the WNW-NW track with the NOGAPS. Nogaps makes landfall just N of WPB across to Tampa, CMC landfall near Melbourne across to 25 miles N of Tampa. Both moving more wnw then NW nearing the west coast. GFS is still the same oddly enough so it cant be complety ruled out. I was hoping the 12z GFS would be nudged alittle more w but it didnt. Also remember the ETA is across the state too with the nogaps and CMC. I havent seen the Ukmet yet or the GFDL. I would be the GFDL is kinda close to the GFS sinceI like I said it holds the GFS data. Ukmet would be the weigh in.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:27 PM |
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H.I.R.T.
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The HIRT (Hurricane Intercept Research Team) are heading down to Florida today...these are the guys who parked their Isuzu a little too close to the coast during Ivan...BTW, they're selling the destroyed vehicle on E-Bay, proceeds going to victims of Ivan...nice touch.
So if you see the HIRT truck parked on a beach near you...
BTW, any news of where they're sending Mr. Cantore...yesterday Frank P. posted a link to an outstanding article on the man...brought me to tears...I will find it and repost it on this thread shortly...if you didn't have the utmost respect for Mr. Cantore before reading the article, you will after reading it.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:28 PM |
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Hits in a season
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To the poster who was wondering how many times one state has been hit, I just found this in an article on msn.com
"The only other time four hurricanes have been known to hit the same state in one season was in Texas in 1886, National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said."
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:28 PM |
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Re: just a note
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THis whole day worries me, if we have to have it i want to be on the south side. been on the northeast side twice no more please!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:28 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Quote:<Grin> What you say is very true....except: In this case, ignorance is NOT bliss, it is dangerous. That aside, a) I still invite you to register, you'd be an even greater asset, and b) we'd have a 'technical Colleen' on board
calm.. joking around a bit, discussion of what everyone is going to do depending on varous situations
either everyone is in denial, doesnt read discussion only advisories..waits for bryan at 5 or has a good handle on how to handle a hurricane threat
then again.. we are in the bottom of the cone and no one has a hurricane warning
are we all on top of it or is ignorance bliss?
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:29 PM |
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Re: for scott
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Yes, the models have had numerous difficulties forecasting the strength and movement of the ridges this year. I remember watching the ridging to the north of Ivan building in very far south, farther than any of the models had it at that time, and thinking to myself that it probably wasn't going to take that NW/N turn until quite a bit later. The same was true with Frances. The ridge built in further south quicker than a lot of the models had anticipated and she never made it north of the Ft. Pierce area. It's definitely something that needs to be taken into consideration and watched closely. My other thought was with regard to the sharp north turn they have Jeanne making upon landfall. I could see that if there was a strong trough present, ala Charley, to pull her north then northeast. However, the ridge isn't really a square so once she reaches the "corner" she won't head due north. Instead she "feels" her way along the side of the ridge which is rounded, making her path more of an arc. However, like many have said it's best to not connect the dots so to speak, and to realize it's more of a cone than a straight line.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:31 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Richard, lois cane, aka bobbi, is registered...she can't log on at work...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:33 PM |
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joe's in love with Ivan.. going to be waiting for his return
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til he's old and gray... waiting in the rain for raindrops that might have fallen from Ivan...out there somewhere
if anyone has a conduit around here to joey's brain tell him Lois would like him to focus on JEANNE
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:38 PM |
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Re: for scott
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If it's going to make landfall in Melbourne at 6:00 a.m.'ish (42 hours from now) then Jeanne needs to kick in her afterburners soon. She's 520 miles from Melbourne and travelling at 9 mph. So, unless she speeds up to 13 mph, Jeanne will still be 140 miles out to sea at 6:00 a.m. Sunday...
Waiting for that acceleration now, which will speed her on the way... if it does so, then it increases the liklihood of making it across the peninsula and into the GOM.
AdmittedHacker
(still no witty phrase to insert here)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:38 PM |
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richard....
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im bobbistorm.. loiscane.. i use lois during the day for strange reasons
personal joke between me and someone
thanks...
and btw..that is BY THE WAY i have no real problem with the long term movement of Jeanne by the NHC.. only short term because as the high builds in with it.. it is moving faster and I think we are running out of short term
got my drift?
thanks. bobbi
phil..repost or tell where to find the link
and you are right.. he is an incredible man on many levels (knows the wv too)
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:39 PM |
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Re: joe's in love with Ivan.. going to be waiting for his return
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Sorry, Lois....that comment made me LOL! I would say that at the very least your county should have tropical storm watches up. I don't see why they wouldn't do that.
But...what do I know?
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:39 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Quote:Darned....that means I've been courting the wrong 'lois'
Richard, lois cane, aka bobbi, is registered...she can't log on at work...
See, an old man like me *never* gets lucky...courts the wrong gal I am so glad she is a member, she'd be sorely missed if she wasn't. Her being registered means a greater likelyhood of her being around next time as well. Thanks for the feedback.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:43 PM |
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Re: Curious about FSU Model
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Hello,
I'm in Mt. Pleasant SC, just several miles south of where Gaston made landfall. Didn't make many headlines, but the 8hrs of 50mph sustained winds and foot of rain made a mess of my place.
I've been lurking on your discussion since this morning. Very impressed with the knowledge being shared. I'm rather shy in posting to message boards, and I don't know if it's helpful in answering your question, but the SC State Climatologist in a message around 8am this morning had this to say about the FSU superensemble model:
"Access to this model output is restricted and cannot be redistributed when permission is granted for its use. For that reason, althrough the State Climate Office will use this tool in decision-making from time to time, I will be unable to display the output. However, I will do my best to explain where the track is without giving you a picture if I can do so with verbal efficiency. That being said..... the FSU model from last night is to the west of the official forecast and remains onshore through FL, GA, SC, and NC before exiting the US mainland near Cape Hatteras. Just another model.. but has been the most consistent and accurate so far this year."
You all take care and be safe.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:44 PM |
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Re: richard....
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Quote:...darned...all the 'good ones'' are already taken
im bobbistorm.. loiscane.. i use lois during the day for strange reasons
thanks. bobbi
Us old farts just never get the girl....boo hoo. I'm glad you are a regular, your posts sounded like they needed to be here a whole bunch. TTYL
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:44 PM |
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Re: for scott
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That is very true. To the best of my limited recollection all the storms this season went farther west than expected. I do know for sure though that the NOGAPS did a great job pegging Ivan like 4-5 days out. I think UKMET had it in the panhandle too. They seemed to lose their efficiency though the closer the storm seems to get.
Course I could be TOTALLY wrong.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:44 PM |
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Article on Cantore
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http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/20/Floridian/The_storm_chaser.shtml
It's a wonderful story...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:47 PM |
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lois...
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i do it to annoy Burns... who knows who he is.. and who he is.. and who he is ...
and to amuse someone... but i do have a problem staying logged in sometimes so just easier
do u know how LONG L O N G 20 seconds is ...btw
| Ricreig |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:50 PM |
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Re: Curious about FSU Model
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Quote:
I've been lurking on your discussion since this morning. Very impressed with the knowledge being shared. I'm rather shy in posting to message boards, and I don't know if it's helpful in answering your question, but the SC State Climatologist in a message around 8am this morning had this to say about the FSU superensemble model: ....
Welcome, and see, it wasn't hard to make a valuable contribution. Do it again, seriously. ALL of us have *something* of value to share. Some make dammed good forecasts but confuse the 'unwashed masses', Others have a good ability to translate cyber geek talk to something meaningful, a few, like Skeetobite, are gifted in making a picture out of a thousand words, and a few, like me, have a thousand words that can't be made into a picture.
Welcome aboard!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:51 PM |
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Re: Article on Cantore
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thanks phil
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
look at the two systems in the upper part of the water vapor loop moving north ... not good
not saying til someone else does but when things go up.. in the atmosphere...energy is transfered elsewhere
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:55 PM |
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Re: Article on Cantore...twc did an excellent story on them a while back ...
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and if anyone knows current status of fsu models.. please tell, hint or draw a picture
rhyme it..just share please
| LI Phil |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:58 PM |
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Re: Article on Cantore...twc did an excellent story on them a while back ...
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Quote:
and if anyone knows current status of fsu models.. please tell, hint or draw a picture
rhyme it..just share please
bobbi, check who's online occasionally...when you see Clark or Jason Kelley, throw up that question...
since that info is proprietary, no one here (unless they're willing to plunk down 5 figures) can get access to it...
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:59 PM |
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Re: Hits in a season
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Thanks for the info.
I found this site the beginning of this season. Finding it very interesting, and learning a lot, but still very confused by all the terminology.
Thanks for all the information and links provided by this site.
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:59 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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So how concerned should we be in SW Florida (from Charlotte County down)? Nobody here is very concerned .. and after Charlotte County had to evacuate before Ivan, schools were closed, etc.. and the weather here was beautiful. .. I think people could get a little indifferent. Plus we're all kind of numb anyway... I don't want us to be in another scenario where we have little time to prepare, should this thing go further SW than NE!
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:00 PM |
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Change the attention for a just a second
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I know I said yesterday that I didn't think that the activity in the central gulf would amount to anything and I'm still sticking to my guns on that; BUT it does look kind of interesting out there this morning. It still looks to be left over moisture from the outer circulation (or bands) of Ivan but it does look ominous. It seems like that moisture will have to go somewhere. Maybe caught up in Jeanne's circulation? Any thoughts?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:01 PM |
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my heart belongs to superman but...
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well... since he is rarely around during important times in my life
i am single and open to offers
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:05 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Quote:I would say that no one in Florida, anywhere in the SE US should be unconcerned. However, if I was going to be in Florida during a landfalling hurricane, this is one time I would be asking you, what's your address and do you have a room for rent this weekend? Keep posted and you won't be surprised regardless of the eventual trac, Las Vegas odds are in your favor this time, but even the house loses sometimes. If you remember that, you'll be OK.
So how concerned should we be in SW Florida (from Charlotte County down)? Nobody here is very concerned .. and after Charlotte County had to evacuate before Ivan, schools were closed, etc.. and the weather here was beautiful. .. I think people could get a little indifferent. Plus we're all kind of numb anyway... I don't want us to be in another scenario where we have little time to prepare, should this thing go further SW than NE!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:06 PM |
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Re: Change the attention for a just a second
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Quote:
I know I said yesterday that I didn't think that the activity in the central gulf would amount to anything and I'm still sticking to my guns on that; BUT it does look kind of interesting out there this morning. It still looks to be left over moisture from the outer circulation (or bands) of Ivan but it does look ominous. It seems like that moisture will have to go somewhere. Maybe caught up in Jeanne's circulation? Any thoughts?
Take a look at this wv loop. While the ridge continues to pound down on Jeanne and keep her moving west...her own outflow is preventing the trof from sliding further east...
Damn wv...I don't like what I'm seeing in terms of any recurvature in the next 48 hours...
Maybe a real met could tell me I'm wrong (and I hope to hell I am).
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:09 PM |
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Re: my heart belongs to superman but...
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Quote:Yippee...Heres my phone number <edited by Moderator wannabe> , so give me a call!!!!
well... since he is rarely around during important times in my life
i am single and open to offers
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:10 PM |
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Re: Hits in a season
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Earle....thank you for that post. Why in the world they won't let it be seen is beyond me.
But at least SOMEONE had the guts to put it into words, which is all we're asking for. Now....just a few minutes ago, Tom Terry said that because of the wide margins between the NOGAPS/UKMET and the GFS/GFDL models, that *might* mean that the track would be in the CENTER of those two scenarios.
In other words, ala Frances. Right straight through the middle of the state. I think he's *trying* to hint at a further south landfall...like WPB. If you read between the lines, that's what I think he's trying to tell us. And I have to say, he's one of the best mets out there. Doesn't panic, doesn't alarm...just tells it like it is. "Folks, this is NO storm to fool around with, and if you're tired of having to leave, get over it because you're REALLY going to be in a mess if you DON'T. We're ALL tired, but we still have to be ON TOP OF THINGS."
Amen, Tom.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:11 PM |
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Re: my heart belongs to superman but...
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lois are you listening to Brian Norcross? Did he say we WILL have warnings up at 5:00pm?
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:17 PM |
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Re: Change the attention for a just a second
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So do you think it will not turn and stay west all the way?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:17 PM |
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WV Loops
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Oh, Phil...I'm with you on that one. I do NOT like what I see. That northern door is about to get slammed shut.
And to the north of Jeanne, it's STARTING to push her even FASTER westward. I think the increase in forward speed has begun.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:19 PM |
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Re: Change the attention for a just a second
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Quote:Phil, IF this turns out to be meaningful, and it may be, it just moves the track away from the Central East coast. This won't help Stuart or Ft Pierce and PB much, but it might mitigate the damage in the more Northern coastal towns. C'ant win for losing. I hate being spared at the expense of others, but I do appreciate being spared! BUT, it is still just a forecast until it happens so it remains a question for all of us. For now, I'm forced to assume the NHC viewpoint is what I need to plan for and pray it is just another exercise to find a place to put all of the several hundreds of dollars worth of non-perishable food that tastes like yuk and that even the cat refuses to eat, but doesn't rot.....unfortunately.
While the ridge continues to pound down on Jeanne and keep her moving west...her own outflow is preventing the trof from sliding further east...
Damn wv...I don't like what I'm seeing in terms of any recurvature in the next 48 hours...
Maybe a real met could tell me I'm wrong (and I hope to hell I am).
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:19 PM |
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SFWMD Models
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Could some one please post the link for the model tracks from SFWMD? The one I have is for Ivan and I can't get back to the link for Jeanne. Help!
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:19 PM |
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Re: my heart belongs to superman but...
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Kent---if it keeps moving the way it is, I would expect to see some kind of watch/warnings for your area. It would be foolish not to do it, especially after you look at that WV loop that Phil posted.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:20 PM |
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Re: WV Loops
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I'm saying no such thing...all I am saying is that to my untrained eye (I pretty much ignore models...you can just look at the atmosphere and see what's going on, once you know what to look for), I can see no reason for any northward turn for a while...
The WV loops can tell us a lot!
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:21 PM |
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Re: Hits in a season
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up here mets arent really pinpointing a landfall location,just stressing that this one is gonna be way too close for comfort,and today and tomorrow prefebly today is the time to prepare,basically were being told this will be another Frances effect for us here in Jax only stronger
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:21 PM |
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Re: Article on Cantore
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Hey Phil. Thanks for that article on Cantore. All I can say is WOW. I respect him all the more.
Actually, thanks go to Frank P. He originally posted the link. I just thought it was worth a repost!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:24 PM |
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Re: Hits in a season
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Quote:
Earle....thank you for that post. Why in the world they won't let it be seen is beyond me.
Colleen,
Your welcome. Hope I don't get the SC State Climatologist in trouble.
This link explains the proprietary nature of the model.
http://www.techtransfer.fsu.edu/showcase/weather.html
Briefly, an FSU researcher developed the model, the University patented it and then licensed it to a private company Weather Predict, Inc. The company either provides the model or model output for a fee and the University gets a royalty.
It's all about the money. Most likely the research that led to the development of the model was funded with public (i.e., taxpayers') money. Pretty common practice.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:26 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Remember the reporter who was standing totally exposed to the elements during Francis so much so that she had to duck down and hang onto a post in order to not become a flying object? Her name is Jill Martin and she just reported that according to the Dolphins Headcoach Dave Wamstadt that the game is still on with the Steelers for Sunday at 1:00 in Miami......
What do they know that we don't? hmmmm....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:27 PM |
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Statement from Miami NWS @ 12 Noon
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Kent...this is straight from the horse's mouth:
Quote:
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTH TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS INCLUDES METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CITIES OF WEST PALM BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...AND MIAMI. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
That's probably what Bryan Norcross was talking about.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:30 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Quote:
Remember the reporter who was standing totally exposed to the elements during Francis so much so that she had to duck down and hang onto a post in order to not become a flying object? Her name is Jill Martin and she just reported that according to the Dolphins Headcoach Dave Wamstadt that the game is still on with the Steelers for Sunday at 1:00 in Miami......
What do they know that we don't? hmmmm....
Dave Wanstedt knows only slightly less about the weather than he does football...
Ricky Williams may like to hit the hash pipe every now and then, but even he knew when it was time to bail...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:30 PM |
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Re: Hits in a season
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I don't think you'll get him in trouble...if he posted it somewhere that you could copy it, than he is probably okay.
I know it's "all about the money", that's what makes me so darned mad. We're talking about people's lives here, and the almight dollar is more important.
Ok, vented....(not directed at you by the way!) feel better, now I can go get some stuff done. Which I've been saying since 8:00am this morning.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:31 PM |
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Re: Statement from Miami NWS @ 12 Noon
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I think this exerpt from the NHC sums up the forecast pretty well:
W PALM BEACH FL 1 20 3 X 24 PENSACOLA FL X X X 9 9
FT PIERCE FL X 20 4 1 25
Phil, you and your WV loop....now the NHC is starting to look at it!!!!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:32 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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ROFLOL...YOU CRACK ME UP!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:33 PM |
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Eye having problems
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
You can see the eye is having problems,
There is not the firing of Thunderstorms at the core,
It looks like dry air has gotten entrained in the center.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:34 PM |
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Track
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Hey Phil,
This is what I said very early this a.m.
Quote:
I remember Andrew and for 2 straight days they said it will turn WNW or NW. Andrew instead took a western beeline and stayed between 25.3 and 25.8 for 66 straight hours. Why? Steeered by the strong high pressure to its north. Today, we also have a strong high pressure to the north of Jeanne. This storm could just keep going west, maybe WNW and not make what is looking more and more as too sharp a turn to the right.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:35 PM |
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Re: Statement from Miami NWS @ 12 Noon
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Coleen,
eeewww. your probably right...
and Richard:
... as far as that "exercise to find a place to put all of the several hundreds of dollars worth of non-perishable food that tastes like yuk and that even the cat refuses to eat, but doesn't rot..."
Can I seriously suggest Haiti?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:35 PM |
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Re: Track
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Quote:
Hey Phil,
This is what I said very early this a.m.
Quote:
I remember Andrew and for 2 straight days they said it will turn WNW or NW. Andrew instead took a western beeline and stayed between 25.3 and 25.8 for 66 straight hours. Why? Steeered by the strong high pressure to its north. Today, we also have a strong high pressure to the north of Jeanne. This storm could just keep going west, maybe WNW and not make what is looking more and more as too sharp a turn to the right.
And it is even more prescient now...
Where's the Dolphin avatar?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:35 PM |
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Re: Statement from Miami NWS @ 12 Noon
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It's the same numbers as Frances had. WPB and CB are the same or it runs WPD FP and then CB
Almost exactly as Frances
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:36 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Quote:Only a Yankee would say them woids....Us southerns consider them fightin' words....and If we could get Shula back, we might win this here wars this time!!!!
Dave Wanstedt knows only slightly less about the weather than he does football...
Ricky Williams may like to hit the hash pipe every now and then, but even he knew when it was time to bail...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:36 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Sorry, but if you're holding on to a post (or anything) to keep yourself from being blown away during a hurricane, than you're brain-dead.
Given that, I don't think we should go by her report that the will play the game in Miami. Maybe she HIT her head...or mayber her and Dave Wanstadt bumped heads. Although....knowing football coaches as I do, they try not to let little things like HURRICANES FROM HELL interrupt their game time. My kids are still playing tomorrow. "Hurricane? What HURRICANE? It ain't gonna hit US!"
doh
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:36 PM |
| Attachment |
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A Moment of Levity
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I just received this attachment from an airman at Hurlburt Field in Fort Walton Beach, FL. It pretty much sums up how many Floridians feel this year.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:42 PM |
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Re: A Moment of Levity
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LOL, Kal! Thanks...we need all the humor we can get right now.
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:42 PM |
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Re: A Moment of Levity
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That was great.
What is this hurricane boot camp? If so, I am in the special devision of evacuation
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:42 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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The Dolphins will make a final decision on the game based on the 5 pm forecast. For now, it stays as is on Sunday. They are looking at Monday and Tuesday if it has to be postponed. Phil, no Dolphin avatar. Yes, I am a Dolfan but nothing comes before the greatest team in sports history.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:44 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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I know...they are treating this VERY differently from Francis...Are we still talking tommorow late night? No warnings? With Francis, school was cancelled Thrus and Fri and she didn't even come through until Sat. night....
By the way Brian Norcross just told the Dolphins to re-evaluate putting 1000's of people in hazardous driving conditions right after a storm passes. Go Brian!!!!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:45 PM |
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Re: Statement from Miami NWS @ 12 Noon
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Quote:...*That* isn't even funny...some of those poor folks would KILL for the so called food I complain about. I used to fly down there to the orphanages to distribute donated medicines from drug stores and companies nearing expiration date because often that was the *only* medicine they could get. Our flying club provided the plane and I and other pilots went down there to deliver the stuff. Even years ago, it was heart rendering to see the abject poverty. I can only imagine what it is like now. I complain I have no shoes, till I see one with no feet!
Coleen,
eeewww. your probably right...
and Richard:
... as far as that "exercise to find a place to put all of the several hundreds of dollars worth of non-perishable food that tastes like yuk and that even the cat refuses to eat, but doesn't rot..."
Can I seriously suggest Haiti?
When it hurts so, so much pain, it can't be funny.... When we all come out of this on the other side, your suggestion is an excellent one for real....Don't donate MONEY, that just goes to the politicians and the government graft takers...send merchandise/food instead...that is why I personally flew down ther in the club plane with STUFF...to ensure it got to those that most needed it. Oh, I wish I could still fly!!!! I'd do it again in a heartbeat....Sorry, rant off....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:46 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Quote:
I know...they are treating this VERY differently from Francis...Are we still talking tommorow late night? No warnings? With Francis, school was cancelled Thrus and Fri and she didn't even come through until Sat. night....
Frances moved very slowly, and didn't loop all over the place.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:47 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Quote:
The Dolphins will make a final decision on the game based on the 5 pm forecast. For now, it stays as is on Sunday. They are looking at Monday and Tuesday if it has to be postponed. Phil, no Dolphin avatar. Yes, I am a Dolfan but nothing comes before the greatest team in sports history.
I'm hearing the same thing. Look for a Tuesday night game. The Steelers will fly back to Pitt tonight and return on Monday for the Tue game. They won't make them fly in Mon and play that night.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:49 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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You and Phil seem good. Let me ask you a question. With that high pressure ridge, does it look like she will go west all the way towards land and not make that little curve?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:49 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Of course the Dolphins want to play the game on Sunday. A hurricane gives them the only chance they have to get a win this year. If they had to play in normal conditions, they would get their butts kicked!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:49 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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>>> Yes, I am a Dolfan
Can't dis a fellow fan of the greatest franchise in the history of sports (heading into the bowels of fenway puke), but "dolfan" sounds sorta weird...Fishfan or finfan...kinda like those better...
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:52 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Like Richie said, the only decision about the Dolphins/Steelers game that has been made is to keep it on schedule for right now. If it is canceled, then the make up would probably be on Tuesday. And maybe Ricky could use some of that $8.6 million the arbitrator ruled he owes the Dolphins to save his precious South Beach condo. Yes, I too am a Dolfan.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:52 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Quote:
Of course the Dolphins want to play the game on Sunday. A hurricane gives them the only chance they have to get a win this year. If they had to play in normal conditions, they would get their butts kicked!
What makes you think they'd even have a chance in a 'cane?
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:55 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Kent,
Is Norcross on the radio also? What channel?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:55 PM |
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18z UKMET
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The UKMET run at 1732 has shifted considerably. Thoughts on why?
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:55 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Kent,
Is Norcross on the radio also? What channel?
Thanks
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:56 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Guys its Miami! Norcross mentions on tv that they are putting fans at risk by expecting them to drive in those post storm conditions? whsipers of lawsuits just flew though the dolphin camp faster than any cat 5 wind!
The game WILL be rescheduled!
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:58 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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live link is
http://www.cbs4.com/
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:00 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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2PM update posted. Jeanne moving west at 12mph. This should impact the update at 5pm. And eventhough I'm a Dolfan I know the 'Fins have a good shot at not winning more than 5 games this year.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:01 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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GFDL has shifted a *LOT* as well!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:01 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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From what I have learned in the past 2 weeks, Looking at the WV loop, I do not see how there is any hane that Jeanne is going to go north. What I am not factoring here?
Praying for you folks....
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:03 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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At the rate of this year's landfalling hurricanes in Florida, the Dolphins will be real lucky to play 5 home games...
she speeding up to 12 mph, just like the NHC predicted....
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:03 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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I need the radio station? Do you have it?
Thanks
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:03 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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>>> You and Phil seem good. Let me ask you a question. With that high pressure ridge, does it look like she will go west all the way towards land and not make that little curve?
It's all in the timing...depends on how fast Jeanne wants to move towards Florida before the trof comes and picks her up north...I would still stick with the NHC forecast over any others, so pay STRICT attention to what they say. And if your local NWS starts issuing warnings and evac orders...
need I say more?
The 5:00 discussion will be worth it's weight in gold...methinks.
If you're bored...go to
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
the front page lists the most recent dvorak #s for all tracked storms...they can give you a clue when a storm is in it's nascent stages if it will get a name...and for fully developed monsters whether they are getting stronger or weaker. If you want, I'll provide the links on how to read the dvorak's.
If you click on "Imagery" for the atlantic basin, you get access to all views of the tropical and subtropical atlantic from the equator and above. These are great for quick updates on model loops...they can be up to an hour old, but they are wonderful tools to see what the atmosphere is doing.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:04 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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Now that's one funky track...it seemingly goes out to sea south of the Outer Banks and they takes a sharp turn due north.??
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:06 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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The Ukmet has only shifted ever so slightly to the NE. The GFDL on the other hand has shifted more to the NE and since the NHC loves that model they will extend the watches up the coast to probably GA-SC border, but Im not sure. Anyways models will shift from run to run, dont take what you see now as a final destination.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:09 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Here we go again, they are saying landfall between Vero Beach and Sebastian and evac starting at 8am from barrier islands and low lying areas up to US1 Anyone leaving the state is suposed to leave now. It seems all are tired and more are staying this time. One good thing... this one is moving faster!! I got flood damage and roof repairs needed, why not just make it a new roof!!
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:09 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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I think the GFDL and GFS are off a bit.. They are slower than other models and now that this thing has sped up some, I am leaning to a track between the NOGAPS and UKMET. The other models have been seriously skewed by the GFS handling of this storm.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:10 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Jeanne has speeded up as expected... now 12 mph. She should be right on time for her 6:00 a.m. Sunday appointment with the coastline...
AdmittedHacker
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:11 PM |
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Foray Into Ormond Beach
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Just went out to grab a few last minute things. Publix and Winn-Dixie are packed. Every single gas station I looked at was full, long lines, people arguing and upset. I filled our tanks this morning in my robe. And the Hess station ran out of regular while we were there. That was interesting!
BTW, speaking of people doing stupid things, my sis-in-law returned her wood after Frances and is now upset that she has to buy more! Don't know what she was thinking.
It is good to see that my neighbors are doing something pertaining to the storm. During Charley, I watched people just sit around and do nothing. That scared them into doing something, although some of them still didn't do very much. This time, people are really paying attention. Makes me wonder what they'll do next year if there's a threat.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:13 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Pam I need a new roof.. Insurance company said they will pay for a new roof, but we cant seem to agree on price.. They say it costs 12K to replace my roof, I have three roofing companys that say 20K. I have had three emergency dry in's and it seems like I a gonna need a fourth.. Lots of flood damage here too.. Insurance just sent me their adjusters summary and its way off.. Almost 50% less than what I have been quoted.. I am suppose to be in good hands, but the only hands I have seen have been in my pocket..
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:13 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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What do the EOC's hear that may be different than what is on the news, etc? Our EOC (Highlands County) is thinking that landfall will be near Vero Beach and will reach our county before making a turn. Reason I'm asking is that before Frances our EOC said that the eye would pass over the bombing range in the county, projections were not supporting that, and in the end-the eye did pass over the range.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:15 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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I guess I must of messed up my estimates, because I came up with a movement of 10 MPH to get her to where she needed to be in the time frame designated.. Math was never my strong point..
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:19 PM |
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Re: Foray Into Ormond Beach
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cant rule out the gfdl but its data is from the GFS which is alittle off on the ridge. Im looking at the trough in the plains down to Texas right now, this should slide e and ne and bend the track to the NW but over florida or sooner? Right now if she continues up to a speed of 15mph she will make florida before the NW turn but she should be by then moving wnw. Current wobbles could have a ending affect on where she will make landfall. If she wobbles to the wnw a couple times then landfall might be up by Melbourne. If she adjusts any wobbles duriing the next 12 hrs then she will impact further south towards WPB. Since I expect her to pick up more speed to 14-15mph I expect landfall in about 36-42hrs. If she wobbles some early before the turn then she will make landfall 42-48 and that would make her turn more NW sooner near Melbourne up to east of Orlando then N towards Jacksonville. Timing is everything. Right now the inverted trough over florida is sliding into the eastern gulf this should continue a more general w track for the next 24 hrs.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:20 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Sorry to hear it, I have neighbors (lots ollder) in worse shape than us. We have been running around trying to help pulling carpet and the like. Are you on the island? In Vero? Found a great Contractor...Johnny on the spot. Our agent said they go by gov. standards there and in our case...USAA standards were we are. Meaning replacement pay scale is higher for USAA. We are just the other side of IR. Figures! I am sure that will change now.
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:20 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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Thanks for the SWFMD graphic. Could you please post the link?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:24 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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I dont know if ya'll have realized this yet, but did you see what Ivan did to the Buoy #42040 which is moored 70 miles south of Dauphin Island, AL? The storm was so strong it broke the buoy loose and its not adrift 250 miles out in the Gulf somewhere. I heard it recieved a almost direct hit and was reporting waves of 40 to 60 feet! Amazing.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:25 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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I believe that, for the most part, the UK and NOGAPS had Jeanne moving to the west the fastest, while the GFS and GFDL(run with GFS data) had her moving slower.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:25 PM |
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Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen
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Sorry should have looked closer at your screen name
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:29 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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Now are these not the runs that were mentioned in the 11:00am discussion for running with the ridge in the wrong initial position?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:30 PM |
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Model Runs
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This was interesting: Tom Terry (Channel 9 in Orlando) had a 2pm update and said he's throwing out the GFS/GFDL model because it moves the storm too slowly. UKMET shifted a little to the NE but I don't know where NOGAPS is at right this second.
Then, on TWC, they showed an interesting graphic which was displayed at "JEANNE'S IMPACTS" and the OCM moved it all the way up through the state of Florida and had it making the turn to the NW in GEORGIA. Don't know what they know, but there wasn't any "hugging the coastline" look there at all.
Kent....Polk County schools (as of right now) have not made a decision as to whether schools will be closed on Monday. I find this somewhat odd as the HS across the street from me is a SHELTER. I guess they are waiting until the 5pm update. It's just odd because people have to evacuate tomorrow and for the past 3 hurricanes, they closed the schools almost 72 hours in advance. Just my wandering mind pondering this's and that'is'.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:32 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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Quote:
Thanks for the SWFMD graphic. Could you please post the link?
I have searched and searched for a link, all I have for now is the URL to that picture which is updated every time they get their data
I found the graphic on some other site (can't remember which), and followed it to its source, but no luck as to an actual page that it's located on.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:33 PM |
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POLK COUNTY SCHOOLS
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I just read a press release from the PC School Board website saying that SCHOOLS WILL BE OPEN ON MONDAY, but they will monitor the hurricane over the weekend.
Worried about losing more school days? Where the heck are people in mobile homes supposed to go? ACK.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:34 PM |
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Re: Model Runs
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The state is really after the schools to offer all 180 days even with the situation we have had this fall. I think after schools were cancelled for Ivan on Friday, they are taking a more wait and see attitude. I wouldn't be surprised if Polk didn't make a final call until sometime Saturday.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:37 PM |
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Re: POLK COUNTY SCHOOLS
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Polk was burned by their early cancelation with Ivan. I think they will make an announcement this weekend to close if they have too.
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:38 PM |
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Re: Model Runs
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I suppose you're correct, and I thought that closing schools for Ivan was way premature, but now do they have to go the other EXTREME?
Just venting.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:42 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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I am not sure but the GFS Models seem to be all messed up. Too slow, they are weaking the ridge too fast, and the high continues to build west... Is it just me ? Maybe I am wishcasting.. NOT !!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:42 PM |
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For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Here's what JB just opined:
"IN a worst case this trof split I am looking for could send the hurricane at 020 degrees from Saint Simon Island all the way to New England. How so. Well the first piece of the trof as usual is overdone, the second underdone, it phases and the storm hugs the coast."
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:43 PM |
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Re: Model Runs
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Has anybody seen last 3 or 4 frames on visable and infrared. It looks like she is starting to get her act together again. I could be wrong being just an amateur but thats what it looks like to me.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:44 PM |
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Re: Model Runs
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yeah and I hope no Jewish people are in those motor homes. Many won't be listening to the news after sundown.
worrisome
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:45 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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LI PHil is JB calling a landfall location yet? What is his opinion at the moment...which model is he favoring?
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:47 PM |
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everyone take care
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going off and going home to set things up there
wont be on much so....be nice to phil
everyone take care and be prepared
bobbi
think it hits further south btw.. my call..
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:54 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Quote:
LI PHil is JB calling a landfall location yet? What is his opinion at the moment...which model is he favoring?
He didn't update his early morning forecast...it was a "Quickie Post" about Ivan (isn't he DEAD yet) and Jeanne's future AFTER florida...
Here are his coords from this morning...you can do the math:
Tonight, 8:00 p.m. eastern, 26.2,74.0 965 mb
Tomorrow evening, 26.8, 78.0 955 mb
Sunday evening, 28.0 81.0 965 mb
Monday evening, 33.0 79.5 970 mb
Tuesday evening, 38.5, 73.0 985 mb
Wednesday evening, 42.0, 65.0 985 mb
Personally I'm not real thrilled with that Tuesday evening locale.
I'm not a mathamagician but wouldn't his coords keep her off the florida coast?
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:55 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Quote:
LI PHil is JB calling a landfall location yet? What is his opinion at the moment...which model is he favoring?
From Accuweather Site
A more west-northwest track will occur toward the Florida coast on Saturday, then landfall may occur Sunday morning between Fort Lauderdale and Cape Canaveral, similar to where Hurricane Frances came ashore three weeks ago. If Jeanne were to make landfall near Fort Lauderdale, it would be very early Sunday morning. If the same occurred near Cape Canaveral, it may hold off until Sunday afternoon given the slope of the central coast. Jeanne could be a major category 3 hurricane at that time causing extensive wind damage and a storm surge of 6-10 feet near or north of landfall. From there, Jeanne will turn northwest across central Florida Sunday and may be capable of producing hurricane-force wind gusts across Orlando, Jacksonville and Savannah. Jeanne will weaken Sunday night and Monday as it tracks from northern Florida into the Carolinas, but will be still be very dangerous with possible flooding rains and wind damage. East of the track, severe weather is possible, including tornadoes. The latest forecast models have come into better agreement that Jeanne will move either along the east coast of Florida and towards the Carolinas, or inland across the Florida Peninsula and into the Southeast. However, the latest NOGAPS model tracks Jeanne across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico and then into the Florida Panhandle. Residents of the Florida Panhandle to the Northeast should closely monitor the progress of this potentially devastating hurricane.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:58 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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No she would be inland at 28 and 81.. I believe.. Thats sunday on your chart..
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:03 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Absolutely right...damn...now I gotta keep the chart handy...thought I could do it from memory!
I'm gonna ask Skeeter to do a map with those coords plotted!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:05 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Quote:(KORL) 28-32-47N 081-20-09W 37M
Absolutely right...damn...now I gotta keep the chart handy...thought I could do it from memory!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:09 PM |
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Re: POLK COUNTY SCHOOLS
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St Johns County schools in St Augustine are closing on Monday for the impending hurricane force winds.
We lost 5 days from power outages with Frances.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:11 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Good News... Maybe by the 06Z we will have some good info. The NOAA G-IV jet will be going out this afternoon and that data will be put into the 00Z models so that we can see that info at 06Z. I think we are having some serious ridge issues with the GFS.. Guess we will know then.. I am more than likely wrong, but eyeballing the Water Vapor and the present speed of the system and comparing them to the GFS makes me a little doubtful.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:14 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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I am an ametuer, but I just don't see this turning as quickly north, given the water vapor loop, as the NHC track.
| Staggy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:15 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Quote:
JB's forecast from this morning:
Tonight, 8:00 p.m. eastern, 26.2,74.0 965 mb
Tomorrow evening, 26.8, 78.0 955 mb
Sunday evening, 28.0 81.0 965 mb
Monday evening, 33.0 79.5 970 mb
Tuesday evening, 38.5, 73.0 985 mb
Wednesday evening, 42.0, 65.0 985 mb
Going point-to-point and figuring out where the hourly locations would be (except for wed eve which is outside the range) these numbers are very similar to the 11AM NHC forecast. Yes, I know point-to-point is not an accurate but its the best I have. Since he started at 8PM tonight, I used 8PM for each of the following evenings.
Here are the numbers based on the 11AM NHC forecast:
Fri 8PM 26.2 74.1
Sat 8PM 26.8 78.9
Sun 8PM 29.3 81.3
Mon 8PM 32.6 79.95
Tue 8PM 37.25 73.75
Wed 8PM 42.75 65.25 (extrap)
I have an Excel SS that I developed which shows the hourly points. It also figures out where a location (ie: my house) falls within the wind field.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:17 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Just something on the WV loops. While they do help us sometimes see the "path" a hurricane will take, they're not always conclusive evidence of where a storm will turn or not turn. They do paint a good picture of what's going on in the atmosphere, but aren't the end all when it comes to storm movement. I'm not saying that the storm won't stay south, just that that information cannot always be garnered by watching the WV loops.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:23 PM |
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Joe B
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Just curious LI Phil,
Wht did Joe B have to say about Ivan..Is he still thinking back into the gulf with a north central landfall again?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:23 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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AgentB,
I should have added that disclaimer when I went on about how good the WV loops are...they are but one tool out of many which allow us to see what the earth is doing...they should NEVER be used solely to predict future events...to my mind, though, nothing is better for showing ridges and trofs and where the twain shall meet...and they're purdy too.
EDIT: JB on Ivan: " The official declaration of Ivans death will come later today. Its no matter we have to watch the gulf next week...unless 2) The disturbance that is left behind from the trof that was supposed to capture Jeanne and whisk her east comes west, in which case that will be in a nice position on its way west to try to develop. Moral is the eastern atlantic season is separate from the western season, which in this pattern can produce home brew"
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:33 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Question:
Why are the stores running out of vinegar? Whats that for?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:36 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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2 pm advisory implies no further strengthening. Actually says "fluctuations. " Is this the NHC position right now?? Cloud tops around the center are not super cold (no whites on the Dvorak loop). Will this hold trus 'til landfall??? Thanks
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:36 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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I just saw something interesting for those of us just learning. I am originally from NM. On Ch 5...our locale forcaster mentioned that a dry early spring and summer means more hurricanes for us do to the Burmuda high sitting lower than average. That makes sense, we almost blew away in the dust this summer. Thought I was back in the high desert.
| Jane219ga |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:37 PM |
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Re: Model Runs
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Quote:
I suppose you're correct, and I thought that closing schools for Ivan was way premature, but now do they have to go the other EXTREME?
Just venting.
They did the same thing in Hillsborough but the reason given was to be able to prepare the schools as shelters for those evacuating to this area. Kind of makes sense to a certain extent.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:41 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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PS for those of us fighting with mold...use developer (used by hair stylists) 50-50 with water and spray on walls. You can buy it at Sally's type store.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:41 PM |
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School closings
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Lee County Schools are waiting until Sunday to decide. Last time for Frances they decided on Saturday and closed down that Monday, when there was no need. I guess they learned their lesson and are waiting a little longer this time before they make the call.
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:43 PM |
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Re: School closings
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Marion County has closed schools for Monday because they are opening the shelters to coastal evacuees tomorrow.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:45 PM |
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Vinegar shortage...
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Maybe the vinegar fights mold too? Could that explain the shortage? Either that or people must be making a run on salad too...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:45 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Quote:Wouldn't that just collect wet dandruff then?
PS for those of us fighting with mold...use developer (used by hair stylists) 50-50 with water and spray on walls. You can buy it at Sally's type store.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:47 PM |
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Re: School closings
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Volusia County is waiting, too.
All this "waiting" gives me an eery feeling.
Just a footnote: when Charley was coming, my 8-year old son freaked. When Frances was coming, he was calmer and said, "The winds aren't THAT bad." Do you know what he said today when he got home from school?
"MAN, WE'RE GONNA GET SPANKED." And promptly went to our closet to set up his little area so "I won't have to do it at the last minute."
Even the KIDS are beginning to think this is normal.
I keep forgetting...is that "Thing 1" or "Thing 2"
oops...sorry, Phil...that would be Thing 2, as he is the youngest.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:49 PM |
Re: Jeanne, the evil sister of Frances?
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I'm a newbie, but I've viewed the site through the last 3 canes..regarding the track, the most consistent model that I've seen the last 2-3 days is NOGAPS. It takes the track thru WPB up to Tampa and offshore in GOM to panhandle. The newest 12Z runs of the Canadian & UKMET (sorry folks I think the UKMET track is wrong on the SFWMD site), take a "Frances" path across the state. I. like others, have noted a right-of-track bias with the GFS & GFDL this season. The high is expansive centered near Norfolk, & reminds me of the Andrew pattern in '92. The trough over the upper Midwest is lifting into Canada so I just can't see this 90 deg turn north. But, heck, whatta I know.
Intensity - It looks as if the storm is getting its act together, right in time to hook up with 84F ocean water. If it wasn't for the dry air surrounding the storm, I'd say it could bomb to a CAT 4 b4 landfall. But with the dry air, maybe strong CAT 3. I think this storm will be stronger than Frances. 1) Frances was sheared significantly over the bahamas & never really got its act together prior to landfall (remember 60 nm eye), 2) no sign shear is forecast the next 36-48 hours for Jeanne,you've got an anticyclone over top doing some nice evacuation, & the gulf stream. Now one other factor, its the 3rd week of September and not late August, so maybe ocean temps have cooled slightly but there should be enuff juice for rapid intensification before landfall. It is a smaller size storm than Frances, but she'll be stronger. Hmmm, I'm ready for CROW pie.
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:53 PM |
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Re: Jeanne, the evil sister of Frances?
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Brevard county schools are closed on Monday.
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:54 PM |
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Re: Vinegar shortage...
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Where is Scott? I wanted a last look at his forecast! Yesterday he had it pretty close to me. I have to go home and start evacuation... LI Phill your comment about the season from hell is true! I will fire up the ol'laptop later
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:57 PM |
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Re: Vinegar shortage...
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Maybe he's out buying vinegar.
I'm sure he'll be here shortly...around 5ish or so.
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:59 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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Quote:Quote:
Thanks for the SWFMD graphic. Could you please post the link?
I have searched and searched for a link, all I have for now is the URL to that picture which is updated every time they get their data
I found the graphic on some other site (can't remember which), and followed it to its source, but no luck as to an actual page that it's located on.
Thanks for trying Vladamirr. I miss that graphic. I had the one for Ivan that kept updating. IT STILL IS!
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:59 PM |
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Re: Vinegar shortage...
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Vinegar...YUK
Well...if I don't see ya'll tonight, I will tune in tomorrow.
God bless us all!
| Staggy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:59 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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<tap><tap> Is this thing on? Testing 1,2,3....
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:00 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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I see ya Staggy
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:01 PM |
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GIVING MY EYES A BREAK
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I am going to go vacuum, wash the kids' football uniforms and be normal. Whatever "normal" is anymore.....hubby's taking the kids to a HS football game tonight, so I will have spare time on my hands then. Until then, .........I'll be back before 4:45pm. LOL.....
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:02 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Staggy,
If you want to produce some graphics for the site, go right ahead! Skeeter seems to be MIA for the time being...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:05 PM |
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Re: GIVING MY EYES A BREAK
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I was told that the hs game was cancelled to night?
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:06 PM |
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Re: GIVING MY EYES A BREAK
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Quote:Lets see...you posted this at 4:01, will be back by 4:45 and will have vacuumed, washed the football uniforms AND still time to be 'normal' whatever that is... You *are* efficient! I'd take 45 minutes to even decide what to do first! Usually, I just forget the vacuuming, and watch the football uniforms on TV, only my TV is in my boss's garage right now...but the vacuum cleaner is still here....not valuable enough to move, if you know what I mean. Take a break Colleen, Jeanne will still be a'comin' when ya get back.....
I am going to go vacuum, wash the kids' football uniforms and be normal. Whatever "normal" is anymore.....hubby's taking the kids to a HS football game tonight, so I will have spare time on my hands then. Until then, .........I'll be back before 4:45pm. LOL.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:08 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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try http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
this site has GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, and CAN model runs with nice animation graphics
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:09 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Quote:Skeet has 'curvy' map #44 at his site.... Betcha he resurfaces after the 5pm track is released by the NHC.
Staggy,
If you want to produce some graphics for the site, go right ahead! Skeeter seems to be MIA for the time being...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:10 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/3_hurr.html
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:11 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Happygirl...
Don't know where Norcross is on the radio...wish I did.
Norcross just said the reports from the flight over Jeanne say its stronger than first thought
Coleen I they same problem with the football games...and tonight is Homecoming for my 5 7 and 9 year old cheeleader, football player, and cheerleader respectively.
All that shopping for nuthin!
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:12 PM |
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Great Abaco
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The first outer rainband is now visible over Great Abaco from Miami long range radar.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:14 PM |
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Re: 18z UKMET
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Quote:Hey there...that is a really good site...thanks for that tip
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/3_hurr.html
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:15 PM |
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Speaking of football
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Got an email back from WKMG programming. The are hoping to show the Jags vs Titans on a digital subchannel if you have HDTV capability. Regular broadcast will be, most likely, hurricane mode.
Back to Jeanne, seems to be behaving about as well as any storm has for a while. I am still going with the NHC forecast. I do not see anything that has changed today to sway me away from that. Going to be close for me to see if hurricane force winds reach my area. At this point, I think NW Osceola will be just out of the strongest. However, it would not take too much for a shift west. Just hope she does not try to add another point to the "X" from Charley and Frances in Southern Polk.
| Staggy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:16 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Quote:
Staggy,
If you want to produce some graphics for the site, go right ahead! Skeeter seems to be MIA for the time being...
Working on it actually. I'm developing a COM object which creates forecast maps for a given region. IIS based (microsoft) based web sites will be able to utilize it with very little effort. Hope to have something in the near future. Unfortunately this season has provided me with plenty of test data.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:21 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Quote:Quote:
Staggy,
If you want to produce some graphics for the site, go right ahead! Skeeter seems to be MIA for the time being...
Working on it actually. I'm developing a COM object which creates forecast maps for a given region. IIS based (microsoft) based web sites will be able to utilize it with very little effort. Hope to have something in the near future. Unfortunately this season has provided me with plenty of test data.
But IIS is the devil... Should use a nice open-source#$@(*uwsllldd>> signal interrupted by Redmond <<
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:22 PM |
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tpratch
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LOL (I think
)
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:24 PM |
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BOC
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Does anyone know how long the upper low is forecasted to stay in the BOC. It seems like it has been there for weeks. Just for kicks I'm keeping my eye on the mess in the central gulf. I still don't think it will develop into anything but the moisture has to go somewhere. I would like for it to come here but I would bet on the north central gulf or eventually the panhandle of Florida will be the final destination.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:26 PM |
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Re: GIVING MY EYES A BREAK
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Coleen i live in volusia county and all activities are cancelled friday. we will know whether or not school is cancelled monday by saturday
| Staggy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:27 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Quote:
But IIS is the devil... Should use a nice open-source#$@(*uwsllldd>> signal interrupted by Redmond <<
I agree. Planning on attempting a Kylix (writing win based in Delphi) port when I get it stable.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:35 PM |
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Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north...
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Your Tuesday evening is my Tuesday morning for Jeanne I guess.
The GFS and GFDL are probably still too far east, although the GFS did make a shift left this morning.
The N.C. coast is looking more and more like it is going to get a pretty good shot too, and I actually expect a second landfall there if it does go back out over the water first.
Phil, in our area, (or at least mine, but likely yours to a degree) a front is expected to stall besides, which is a good recipe for heavy rains. First things first though.
Even though the forecast has been consistent in a sharp turn, I question whether it will actually be able to do that that quickly.
JB's comments were interesting, and I see where he is coming from-the thought did cross my mind to a degree also.
Edit:
BTW, I am ignoring the ETA until or unless it is over land. It's been leaning over to the left for the last several storms too long, and too far. I don't think it was designed for these situations either, although its upstream forecasts can be useful. Remember, it had Ivan crossing the Yucatan for many runs.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:38 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Ok, #45 is out on the NRL
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Norcross just said warrnings are up for most of the East Coast...
From Dade County North
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:41 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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wunderground.com has 5pm advisory up........
| Ormond Suzie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:42 PM |
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WFOR 4 & Brian Norcross...
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I don't know who posted the link to the continuous video cast from Miami-area WFOR 4, but I want to give you a BIG THANK YOU! I've heard on this board about Brian Norcross, but being up in Volusia I've never been able to watch him in action. I am VERY impressed with Norcross and quite happy in general with the coverage the station is giving to Jeanne. I wish one of our area stations (east central Florida) would do the same.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:46 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:Yup...if gas was scarce and lines long this morning, just wait. When the EC folks get inland, like Orlando, their tanks will be empty and it won't be long before the stations are empty...Locals, you have only hours to get yours before it is gone.
Norcross just said warrnings are up for most of the East Coast...
From Dade County North
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:47 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:BTW, do you have the live feed link anywhere for Norcross....I can't find it (
Norcross just said warrnings are up for most of the East Coast...
From Dade County North
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:48 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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That's gonna be one interesting 5:00 discussion, that's for sure...
What the hell is that new "NexSat" on NRL?
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:50 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:NexSat?
That's gonna be one interesting 5:00 discussion, that's for sure...
What the hell is that new "NexSat" on NRL?
BTW, new topic online now in the Forum
| Ormond Suzie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:51 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:Quote:BTW, do you have the live feed link anywhere for Norcross....I can't find it (
Norcross just said warrnings are up for most of the East Coast...
From Dade County North
WFOR 4 - this will get you to the link for their live feed.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:52 PM |
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I care about my eyes, I think I'll stick to the ones I have!
| LanceW |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:53 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Anyone ever use http://www.nwhhc.com/? They seem to be on track lately (the last couple of storms). They do not agree with the official track. Also, looks like it sped up to 14 MPH...
NEW THREAD UP!
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 05:08 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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The 5 PM Discussion is out..