MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:48 PM
Jeanne Moving West

11:45PM Update
Recon flights have shown windspeed to be increasing in Jeanne.

You should not focus on the exact track within this map, the storm is a large area and the track may be off many miles. All areas in the warning area need to prepare.


Original Update
Hurricane Jeanne at 11 is moving at a brisk 12MPH westward, holdng its own, with a large eye right now.



The official track has moved left slightly, very close to West Palm Beach, which matches with the hurricane warning area. The strength at landfall is now projected to be category 3 strength at landfall.

A turn to the north is expected, but the question is how far west it will get before it does.



Event Related Links

You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop

Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


Shalafi
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:52 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

I really don't like her...

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:57 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Pretty much what I expected. The new path bisects through Orlando. Looks like the landfall point on the coast did not shift much. Looks to be a tad bit south of Melbourne now. Looks to be another long day on Sunday.


I have to add that I am more concerned about flooding potential. More then a little worried that Reedy Creek may rise enough to take out Pleasent Hill Rd into Poinciana. That would make it impossible to get in and out of here becuase the only route out would be a two lane road to the south into Polk County.


tpratch
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:57 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Yeah, after this I might have to go find a Jeanne, date her and break her heart - you know?

Heather
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:58 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

I'm looking at the Melbourne radar, something scary looking is on there. What is it??

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:58 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Jeanne has a large eye and the wind field is expanding. Last Air
Force reconnaissance plane in the area measured a minimum pressure
of 964 mb. Earlier a NOAA plane measured a peak wind of 107 knots
at flight level. Thereafter...an Air Force plane measured only 95
knots in the same area. T-numbers have not increased and remain at
5.0 on the Dvorak scale. The initial intensity is kept at 85 knots
until new data comes from another plane currently approaching the
hurricane. The upper-level wind environment continues to be
favorable for strengthening as indicated by the hurricane's outflow
and raob data. This...in combination with a warmer ocean between
the Bahamas and Florida...suggests some strehgthening and Jeanne
could become a major hurricane before landfall.

The hurricane has been moving westward at about 10 knots. The strong
high north of the hurricane will continue to force Jeanne on this
general track for the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter...a gradual
turn to the northwest and north should begin as the high shifts
eastward. Althouh we are confident that the northward turn will
occur...only a few more hours of additional westward motion than
anticipated would bring the core of the hurricane farther inland
over the peninsula. On the other hand...the hurricane could also
make the turn earlier and slide along the East Coast of Florida. At
this time...all indications are that the hurricane will move inland
and will make the northward turn over the peninsula. This is based
on the latest available model guidance which in fact has shifted a
little bit westward. Even the GFDL which kept the core of the
hurricane over water is now keeping the huricane hugging the East
Coast of central and North Florida.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/0300z 26.5n 74.9w 85 kt
12hr VT 25/1200z 26.6n 76.8w 95 kt
24hr VT 26/0000z 27.2n 79.1w 100 kt
36hr VT 26/1200z 28.0n 81.0w 75 kt...inland
48hr VT 27/0000z 29.5n 81.8w 45 kt...inland
72hr VT 28/0000z 33.5n 80.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 29/0000z 37.5n 75.0w 30 kt...over water
120hr VT 30/0000z 42.5n 66.0w 30 kt...over water

$$


tpratch
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:59 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Quote:

Pretty much what I expected. The new path bisects through Orlando. Looks like the landfall point on the coast did not shift much. Looks to be a tad bit south of Melbourne now. Looks to be another long day on Sunday.




Now that's really bad news.

South of Melbourne means Melbourne gets the "right" side of the storm again.

Fortunately, the only trees left in my yard are less than 10 feet tall - nothing left to blow over but the fence


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:01 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Heather,

That is probably false echos immediately around the radar that you are seeing.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:02 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Go cast your vote for your favorite hurricane site HERE

h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:06 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Hey AngB...

oh yeah, I go running by there....you can see the back of our house as you are driving up S. Tropical - we are at the southernmost part of the subdivision. That one poster said 20k (maybe that was for the expensive rolldowns), we have over 20 windows and it was around 6k and we did the more expensive armour screen for the entire patio.


tpratch
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:08 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Sorry - I should've clarified. Yes it was for rolldowns - it seems that some of the local guys in that line of work are in it to get rich, rather than simply provide a good service at a fair price

clueless
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:11 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Is Skeeterbite around to grace us with one of his way too cool maps?

Web3
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:12 PM
Iteresting Weather Bouy

Hi. I'm here in Vero Beach, boarded up, and considering getting out of town. Wife & stepdaughter already in Tampa.

I was about 7 miles due west of the NHC in Miami when Andrew struck, I was listening to Bob Sheets when the radar dome blew off the NHC building! Frances here was a pretty intense experience. Enough is enough! I think I'll leave ..... unless this westerly track holds. OUr house did well in Frances, and the trees got a free pruning. We'll see.

But: This is a great board, wonderful info, great links and a good bunch! Glad you are here.

Here is a link to a summary of the wind, gusts and pressure at Grand Bahama Island:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=spgf1&uom=E

As you can see, something is coming!

Once again, thank you all for your presence now, and during Frances.

Web


lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:14 PM
Re: rolldowns

Nearly every house in Germany has the roll downs- rolladens. They don't cost nearly as much there, probably because they are planned into the house construction. It would be great if they were more available in Fla at a relatively reasonable rate. Seems like you should get a break on ins. if you have them.
As an alternative, I've know folks who use the professionally installed window film and feel it affords some level of protection. (And they make it in lots of nicer shades than the somewhat ugly mirror reflective type.)


h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:15 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Hey tpratch...yeah the roll-downs are very expensive...a house close to ours had an estimate of 35k! They are very nice if you can afford it or if you are not physically able to put up panels, but a couple hours of work to put up the panels (the heavier .063) is no problem. I love the armour screen on the patio...we can go out there during the height of the strorm and still see out to see what is going on...and it is rated WAY past the Miami-Dade standards.

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:18 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Had to stop for a minute to post this. This thing has exploded in size over the past 6 hours. Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from center and Tropical storm force winds extend 205 miles from center (was 45/140 respectively).

About half the total land area of the state of florida will feel tropical storm force winds before the eye even reaches land. Follow all instructions of your local news and emergency management personnel!

New "close up" map in production...


Web3
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:18 PM
Re: Iteresting Weather Bouy

Here is the bouy site:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:18 PM
Re: rolldowns

I have the 3M Hurricane Protection Film on my house. I have over 62 windows in my house and some of them are on the third floor of a pretty pitched roof. So far the windows have held up to 125 MPH winds.. Not saying this is the best approach to protecting yourself, just saying that for me, until I can get enough funds to have automatic shutters, this has to do.. At least the glass wont go flying ..

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:19 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

I don't know about Skeet, but I really like the NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:19 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

P. AF968 1911A JEANNE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 110 KT SW QUAD 0233Z.
MDT TURBC IN EYEWALL


lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:20 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Thanks, Skeeto! Know you're working hard!

AngB
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:20 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

I am considering the armour screen.
I think I read on a thread a few hurricanes ago that a contractors/builders organization sent people down to Port Charlotte to see what worked and what didn't construction-wise. I think they were presenting their findings in November. That would be an interesting report to get a hold of.

As a side note...a friend of mine who has been without power twice this hurricane season says that he's learned that it helps to turn the AC down to get the house really cool prior to losing power. He said it helps for a day or two... if you can limit the opening of outside doors.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:21 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Most recent results CFHC is up to 20%!
Thanks to all of you, this has been a great site for me here in Orlando. I have learned a lot!

Total Votes: 1819
Which hurricane site do you like the best?
44% National Hurricane Center (802 votes)
20% Central Florida Hurricane Center (378 votes)
11% Weather Underground (203 votes)
8% Intellicast (156 votes)
8% Weather Channel (153 votes)
6% AccuWeather (112 votes)
0% Hurricane City (10 votes)
0% Atlantic Tropical Weather Center (5 votes)


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:25 PM
Any good news?

The storm is getting much larger and still moving due west. It is still at 26.5, Phil suck some more air up so it nudges past my latitude. Is there any good news? Yes, the Yankees beat the Sox yet again.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:26 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

looks like the cfhc is loosing the battle. i live in Bham, Al and just went thru Ivan. Hope all of you in Fla are ok the next few days. After this if over i have a few questions i would like to ask of this board concerning the CAT of Ivan when it made landfall.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:29 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Heather, those are rain showers you are seeing on the Melbourne radar. Their cloud tops are between 10 and 15,000 feet. There are moving fairly fast though. I don't really think they are associated with Jeanne. I'll look some more though.

h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:29 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Yeah, that will be interesing to see what they report. Funny that you say that about the air...before Frances we had the air turned so low we had sweat shirts and long pants on because we were so cold...we lost power over-night and for the next 36 hours the max. temp was 78! Also, crank back the freezer and fridge to coldest setting and if you have an ice maker set it to max and fill bag w/ ice and put in the freezer...(so you can later put it in the fridge)

boxerhouse
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:30 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Hello-- Does anyone have any thoughts about Jeanne's intensity once it reaches the Jacksonville area? Wondering if it's going to be worse than Frances here and what precautions we might need to take. I live about a block from the St. Johns river.

lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:32 PM
Re: frig...

A tip I used to use was to nearly fill gallon plastic milk jugs with water, leaving some space at the top, don't cap, and then freeze. You can keep as many as you can fit in the freezer in hurricane season. It really makes a difference to have these solid blocks of ice in the freezer. (And you can move a couple to the frig if you need to when the electricity goes out.)

alan
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:33 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the latest recon found flight winds at 110 knts. That's 114 mph at the surface.

tpratch
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:35 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Quote:

I don't know about Skeet, but I really like the NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html




They do a solid job showing the wind strength distribution for the various quadrants (albiet very hokey-like) but nothing can beat skeet and his street-level maps

(Unless of course someone were to overlay satellite photography over Skeet's data...)


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:36 PM
Re: frig...

I use gallon size freezer bags.. You can cram them in real good making them one solid brick of ice in your freezer.. They last a long time and the water is drinkable/usable as they melt.. Also good for putting on your head when facing the headache of cleanup.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:37 PM
Re: frig...

Don't know if this is a help, but my wife grew up in Pensacola and her mother always filled up the bathtub with water before each warning. At least they could boil water to drink and flush the toliet.

COgal
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:38 PM
Re: frig...

I also fill the ziplock bags with water and stack them in the freezer so they come out looking like little freezer packs. They freeze pretty flat if you don't put too much water in them.

COgal
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:39 PM
Re: frig...

I have heard that so many times and actually did it through Charley. BUT my bathroom and tub would be the only safe place in my house if a tornado hit as this house is old and has NO closets.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:40 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

You are correct.
Flight level winds of 110kts equals 126.67mph. With a 90% surface factor that would give surface winds of 114mph.
I found a quick way to estimate surface winds. Just take the flight level windspeed in kts, change the kts to mph. It give you a rough estimate, within about 5mph.


AngB
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:40 PM
Re: frig...

Hey, thanks for all the tips. I think I'm calling it a night. For some reason, I think tomorrow and Sunday will be a couple of long days.

alan
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:41 PM
Re: frig...

Do the freezer deal as well.

You can see the first feeder band on Miami Long Range radar.


Daytonaman
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:42 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

A couple of other things that worked for us during Charley and Frances were: 1. Getting good hot showers the day before then I cranked up the hot water tank, when we took showers we jumped in, turned on the water, got wet, shut off the water, soaped up, then turned water on for quick rinse and since water was still working new water mixed with the hot water and we took at least warm showers for 6 days (2 people and a dog(2 baths..lol) 2. A couple of days in advance I got ice and filled the freezer and the cooler..the ice in the cooler helped to start the cooling process of the insulation in the cooler...morning of the storms I took and used the ice water in cooler to make drinks, used ice in freezer to restock cooler and put new ice in the freezer...we had ice and ice water for 6 days. Hopes these tips also help...
Hanging out waiting for Round 3,
Bruce
Port Orange, FL


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:44 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Depending on actual track, I believe worst case for Jacsonville would be cat 1 winds (74-95mph). Highest winds along the coast.
Of course, now that school is cancelled in Jacksonville, that's bound to help keep Jeanne away, right?
Speaking of different tracks, do you remember when Jeanne was approaching the first time and Accu(not)-Wx was predicting Jeanne to go into the GOM? Now it looks like they might have to revert back to that original forecast again.
I'll be surprised if the center of Jeanne tracks north over Florida from where its at now rather than moving up the east coast or moving across to the west coast, as some models now seem to be suggesting.


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:46 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Works great for me if I have water.. LOL.. I have well water, so my pressure tanks only provide enough water pressure for a few hours. After that, I am waterless. Need to get one of those hand pumps.. I am lucky though, I have a pool and a bucket that allows me to flush toilets, and if all else fails there is the lake.. Though usually after a storm there is some displacement in snakes and other critters.

boxerhouse
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:48 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Right now I'm hoping she tracks as originally forecasted...Jax has been fortunate for a very long time, though--I'm just hoping it's not our time.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:49 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

That's definitely one time you don't want a "snake" in the toilet.

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:49 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Just checking in...
Looks like we are going to get hurricane force winds in my area very early tomorrow morning and throughout some portion of Sunday. I'll give some reports of the weather during the storm (for as long as power permits-which we didn't lose during Frances-but I don't think we will be lucky this time).

On another note, the barometric pressure dropped down to 974 millibars during Frances. It will interesting to see if the pressure can dip lower than that during Jeanne.

stay safe


Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:50 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Quote:

Go cast your vote for your favorite hurricane site HERE





#2
26%
Central Florida Hurricane Center (527 votes)


SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:53 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

For those who don't make it back to the start of this thread:


Full size available at the start of this thread or at www.skeetobite.com/weather

No sense making a track map as Jeanne looks committed to the current path. Street level windfield maps tomorrow at 11am.


clueless
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:53 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

When I bought water for Frances (I think - they are all becoming a blur) Walmart was out of Gallon bottles of water so I bought cases of single serve bottled water like you would get out of a vending machine - I stuck those in my freezer so that I had small blocks of Ice.

Be careful when freezing Ziploc bags with water - I stacked the bags that I thought were frozen - the middle ones broke open and spilled the water into the bottom of my chest freezer. Now I have a 3 inch block of ice coveiring the freezer floor. I almost defrosted it this week, but then all of the talk here made me decide to wait and see whter I would need all the ice I could get

SOry my fingers are getting sleepy - just waiting on the map then I am gonna try to get some sleep - lots of prep to do tomorrow


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:54 PM
Re: frig...

I can't believe this is happening again!

I filled the bottom drawer in my freezer (& some 2 liters) with water. After freezing, It helped keep the freezer at refrigerator temperature for several days.


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:54 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Dang it Skeeter, your covering my house again with that darn yellow line of yours.. GAWD I hate it when he does that..

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:55 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

I voted for this site. I have found it to be more informative than any site on the WEB. Even though i live in Central Alabama i found this site and love it. We had tropical winds and they scared me to death. I could not think about H-force winds.

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:55 PM
Sunspots

as previously been noted, we are approaching the Maunder Minimum, so Sunspot Activity is typically lower (and will reach a minimum around 2006. To the best of my knowledge there haven't been any suprises in the volume or coverage of sunspots in the last year at least. and while there were a few suprises during the Maximum (there was a double maximum, and the strongest flares since rating began in 1979), that was a number of years ago and shouldn't have any impact on the current weather.

thanks
Mark


h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:56 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Kevin, I don't think the hurricane force winds are to arrive until later Sat...not in the early morning.

gailwarning
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:56 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

House in Satellite Beach made it thru Frances pretty good. Can it continue to dodge the bullets. Sure hope so.

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:58 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

my bad...i mean very early sunday morning...we haven't quite reached midnight yet

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:59 PM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Heather, the outer bands are indeed visible on both Miaimi and Melbourne radar sites.

COgal
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:00 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

I know and Eustis is almost hidden by the yellow track line. If this forecast sticks this will be worse than Charley and Frances were for this area, which wasn't too terribly bad.

h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:00 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

lol, I lost track of time...just after I hit the post button, I saw it was almost midnight!!!

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:01 AM
News updates

Local tv just talked to a man on Abaco Island. He is already reporting 60-70 mph winds and the storm isn't even close yet.
Local reporters on the barrier islands of Martin, St. Lucie, and Indian River counties are finding that many, many people are NOT leaving. Their reasoning is that authorities didn't let them back home soon enough after Frances so they are staying this time. This is NOT good.


Terri
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:01 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Quote:

Hello-- Does anyone have any thoughts about Jeanne's intensity once it reaches the Jacksonville area? Wondering if it's going to be worse than Frances here and what precautions we might need to take. I live about a block from the St. Johns river.




I found this under GA's information from 11PM, which addressed both GA and FL conditons. Hope it helps.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE
HEIGHT OF NORMAL TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VALUES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...TIDE LEVELS ON THE ST. JOHNS RIVER ARE
ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL. COMBINED WITH ALREADY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MATERIALIZES...SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING MAY OCCUR ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:01 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

AFTER THIS ONE, IT LOOKS LIKE VERO MIGHT NEED TO CHANGE TO ZERO

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:04 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Quote:

For those who don't make it back to the start of this thread:


Full size available at the start of this thread or at www.skeetobite.com/weather

No sense making a track map as Jeanne looks committed to the current path. Street level windfield maps tomorrow at 11am.


Skeet...the *only* significant piece of info missing from your 'fix points' on your map is the TIME forecast to be at these points. Could'ja?

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:06 AM
Re: News updates

I'm sure many are taking more of a wait and see approach. There will be many more making the decision to leave on Saturday. Part of me says I really can't blame them, but if you decide to live on the barrier islands, you've got to expect stuff like this. People have become very spoiled.

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:06 AM
Re: News updates

Quote:

Local tv just talked to a man on Abaco Island. He is already reporting 60-70 mph winds and the storm isn't even close yet.
Local reporters on the barrier islands of Martin, St. Lucie, and Indian River counties are finding that many, many people are NOT leaving. Their reasoning is that authorities didn't let them back home soon enough after Frances so they are staying this time. This is NOT good.




WOW...that report from Abaco really exhibits just how broad the windfield of Jeanne is! And we're still seeing expansion...

As for the barrier island residents of those three counties...HAVE THEY LOST THEIR MINDS??? We're looking at a potential for 125-130 mph wind gusts tomorrow...staying on a barrier islands....oh and the storm surge? Staying=putting your life in danger.


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:09 AM
Re: News updates

She's looking like she is building some good convection to the Southeast of her eye now.

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:17 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Quote:

Quote:

For those who don't make it back to the start of this thread:


Full size available at the start of this thread or at www.skeetobite.com/weather

No sense making a track map as Jeanne looks committed to the current path. Street level windfield maps tomorrow at 11am.


Skeet...the *only* significant piece of info missing from your 'fix points' on your map is the TIME forecast to be at these points. Could'ja?




Huh? It's the red text next to the coordinates.

Also had a request for more florida and less water. The only way to provide a useful (readable) close up image is to crop at 600x600. For those who are interested, here is a link to the current raw base map(1276x623): www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/image_map.gif


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:17 AM
Re: News updates

00Z GFS is comming in.. Looks similar to the 18Z. Looks like it has it comming in around Ft Pierce then up through the middel of the state again.. Not much change, though I expect with the input of the Gulfstream IV data the 06Z will be more enlightening..

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:31 AM
recon data

Someone might have posted this but recon found flight winds of 110K and pressure steady of 964

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:34 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

This is a great map. The only thing I see missing is Georgia. Is that a good sign or a bad one? We have been really lucky. Is our luck running out? I live in SE Ga, in a liitle town called Jesup, just north west of Brunswick and the Golden Isles. People here are a little concerned, but not overly. We have never really had to concern ourselves with these storms since David. Although we all left when Floyd looked like he could make landfall at Brunswick. I live about 50 miles inland and we took a road trip to Macon (9 hours instead of the typical 2 1/2 hour drive) Got to Macon and turned around and came right back. Never even got out of the car. It was a nightmare. We are debating about what to do now. Local stations are saying we can expect 60-75 mph winds but who knows? Any suggestions?

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:38 AM
Re: News updates

Ok lets get into it!!!!!!! Right now Im going to talk about the models,,then Ill post more in a hour or so on ideas then Ill take any questions you all have.
New model runs coming in. ETA OZ run is inland near Boyton Beach across to Ft Myers. Landfall by midnight. GFS OZ is in, landfall near Pt.St Lucie and to Arcadia then NW between LakeLand and Tampa,,,,,( this is about 50-75 miles more west then the 18z run and has the new data into the model. It now agrees with the Nogaps. Speaking of the Nogaps It goes inland near Jupiter then near the Lake then across to near Sarasota and NNW just offshore Clearwater and threatning the Panhandle.. This has been the most consistant model over the last 2 days from run to run and the GFS has been bending to this and now agrees. Jeanne is moving more closer to 14mph. Even though it was posted at 74.9 its already near 75.5 as of 1230am eastern,, at this pace she should be near 26.6 and 75.8w at 2am adv,,but i could be off by a tad. If this continues and its expected,,then landfall might happen just before midnight if any increase in speed to near 17mph. Its possible too. CMC also makes landfall near Pt .St Lucie to Lakeland to just north of Clearwater (New Port Richie and moving NW-NNW. I havent seen the Ukmet yet or the GFDL. I would suspect a more westward shift again in the track with landfall closer to my forecast and then Nw to Lakeland and come up to near Ocala by Sunday evening. Winds at landfall I still feel will be near 120mph with gusts close to 140. This will be stronger then Frances at landfall. Extreme damage and mass power outages will affect a wide area throughout the state in the area of the path. Strong squall lines will start to affect the east coast of florida by mid morning and work inland during the afternoon. Ill have more to come latter on my 24 hour landfall and its pretty close to what I gave 3 days ago and even 7-8 days ago last weekend.


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:41 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

[quote
Huh? It's the red text next to the coordinates.

Also had a request for more florida and less water. The only way to provide a useful (readable) close up image is to crop at 600x600. For those who are interested, here is a link to the current raw base map(1276x623): www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/image_map.gif


I *told* you I was old, ancient and BLIND!!!! Sheesh!!! FooPaux!

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:42 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Based on the latest NHC, Jeanne will be a tropical storm with winds less than 53 mph when it crosses directly over Brunswick, on the way to Savannah. This is of course 5 days out and not a very reliable track past 3 days at best.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:44 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

The track will be adjusted by 50 miles to the west over florida at the 5am adv. Landfall spot still up inthe air. Right now it looks like Jupiter.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:45 AM
Re: News updates

Thanks for the models update. I have a feeling this may be headed for Alturas which was the crossing point for Charley and Frances in southern Polk County. We may have a magnet located here.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:46 AM
Re: News updates

Scott, been keeping an eye on the NOGAPS and UKMET, and they all remind me of your forecast. I too had the same feeling that Jeanne would come in a bit further south than the models had shown. Probably due to their poor track record with the other systems and the way they had the ridges interacting with them. Especially the GFS which in turn influences a lot of the other models. Jeanne has definitely picked up forward speed this afternoon into this evening, and I can't help but feel that this would shift the track even further west. I was actually surprised that the NHC hadn't moved it to the left a little further, but that's probably due to their usage of the GFS and GFDL.

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:46 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Of course you know, that's directly over the secret lab... again.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:50 AM
Re: News updates

Thanks scott... good meaty post. I think that any additional acceleration puts Jeanne further inland as well. Won't be surprised to see more westward adjustment.... it's actually reminiscent of the Ivan story. Westward adjustments with each update....

When this year is over they need to open the hood on all the models and turn that "western bias" adjustment screw about two and a half turns to the left!

AdmittedHacker

(just too dang tired to think up any witty phrase to insert here)


AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:50 AM
Attachment
Re: News updates

Hmmm....latest WV loop looks very interesting. The whole west side of Jeanne seems to have "exploded", as if it either sucked in some dry air or encountered some nasty shear. Definitely have to keep an eye on that.

WV Loop

WV Loop 2


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:53 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Im afraid that she might actually get a tad more west then that and do what the Nogaps is saying and really giving Tampa a pounding by going all the way to Arcadia then NW to the Bay and into the Gulf by Clearwater late in the afternoon on Sunday. This will bring 80-90mph winds here even with higher gusts near the center. Right now they are forecasting 40-69mph here,, they will nudge it up to 50-70 by the 5am update and if things stay like the models and tracks a tad more w then it will be around 80-90mph. Thing is Frances was moving slow, was 105 at landfall so by time it was in west central florida it was near 70mph tops. Charley remember had winds 85mph with gusts over 100pm 125 miles NNE of Landfall. Jeanne should move about 12-15mph across the state and with landfall near 120mph expect her to drop 30-40mph by time it reaches this area. Over all this is going to be worse then Frances, except the duration will be not quite as long.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:55 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

pressure down to 962mb and expect it to drop more,, Right now winds will be up to 110mph for the 2am update and might even be 115mph. Hard to say. Up to NHC.

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 12:55 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Quote:

[quote
Huh? It's the red text next to the coordinates.

Also had a request for more florida and less water. The only way to provide a useful (readable) close up image is to crop at 600x600. For those who are interested, here is a link to the current raw base map(1276x623): www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/image_map.gif


I *told* you I was old, ancient and BLIND!!!! Sheesh!!! FooPaux!


What I *meat* to say was a 'scale' on the street level map... Blub Blub

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:02 AM
Re: News updates

Scott Somewhere I seem to recall that at the equator, 1 second of longitude was equal to 1 nm. Do you know iwhat it would be at 30 deg latitude? Is the conversion from nm to sm = nm * 1.6 - sm?

Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:06 AM
Re: News updates

Jim Cantore was just on The Weather Channel reporting from Daytona Beach Shores. I don't know if he is staying there, but the video was shot from nighttime.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:07 AM
Re: News updates

Did just a quick search and here's what I came up with for nautical mile/latitude conversion(1 minute of latitude equals 1nm):

Latitude&Longitude/NM

Hope that helps some.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:10 AM
Re: News updates

Everyone want to know something funny or not funny????? GFS and couple other models are consistant on wanting to bring a tropical storm or hurricane towards florida in the 7-10 day time frame ,,,,,LMAO oh no, you got to be kidding me.

Terri
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:11 AM
Re: News updates

Quote:

New model runs coming in.



I'm glad I stayed up and read your post, Scott. I sure do feel better. I may actually be able to go to sleep tonight and NOT dream about hurricanes. Thanks!


erauwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:12 AM
Re: News updates

Yeah Cantore is here in daytona beach shores ... but i just went on a mad hunt for him with a few of my fellow meteorology students ... can't find him anywhere .. went to up and down A1A .... so i wonder is he's *really* here or not .... he was easy to find during Frances ...

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:12 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

The more I think about, I just have to wonder what would be the odds of Jeanne hitting close to the Charley/Frances "X" in Polk county?

erauwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:13 AM
Re: News updates

Do you have a link to that model?

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:15 AM
Re: News updates

Quote:

Did just a quick search and here's what I came up with for nautical mile/latitude conversion(1 minute of latitude equals 1nm):

Latitude&Longitude/NM

Hope that helps some.


...a bunch! Thanks....

So at 29º-30º N. latitude, the value of each degree of longitude and part thereof is 1 degree of longitude equals 52.296 nautical miles or 60.181 statute miles; 1 minute of longitude equals .8716 nautical miles or 1.003 statute miles. North Central Florida is approx 25-30 deg N Latitude so each second approximates 1 'regular' mile. Makes it easier to figure distances given lat/long on maps from where I am....


Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:15 AM
Re: News updates

I don't see him staying there after tonight though. He is the "eye" man. I just hope I don't see him 1/2 mile from my house again. You've gotta love JC, but you just don't like seeing him near your house.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:15 AM
Re: News updates

Scott, please tell me that is not the GFS showing Ivan Mark III? Have not been able to look at it yet,

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:16 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Before the season began, I would say the odds were incalcuable but after seeing what Scott had to say, it could be another tough day here in Polk County.

erauwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:17 AM
Re: News updates

I think he just likes to stop here on the way to somewhere else ...

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:18 AM
Re: News updates

Well Terri its not set in stone yet so keep up to date but you can sleep tonight.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:20 AM
Re: News updates

At the time, Daytona was the NHC spot for best landfall chance as of 5pm. By 5am I would think close to Frances, they might just send him to the west coast because most major citys along the east coast has a WC person there. Melbourne, WPB , PT.St Lucie I think.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:22 AM
Re: News updates

Here is another that converts Nautical to Statute
http://www.boatsafe.com/tools/scale.htm

And one for KTS to MPH
http://www.disastercenter.com/convert.htm


AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:22 AM
Re: News updates

Quote:

I think he just likes to stop here on the way to somewhere else ...




Yeah, he was here a day or so before Frances. I remember telling everyone at my work, "somebody better go down to the beach and kindly ask Mr. Cantore to please leave". LOL...once I explained to them the "joke" about him being where the storm usually makes landfall I had a number of people volunteer to drive to the beach.


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:25 AM
Re: News updates

Quote:

Here is another that converts Nautical to Statute
http://www.boatsafe.com/tools/scale.htm

And one for KTS to MPH
http://www.disastercenter.com/convert.htm


Thanks...I don't know where I got the 1.6 factor... It should be 1.15

100 Knots =115.2MPH


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:26 AM
Re: News updates

I almost fell out of my chair when I read that the hurricane force winds extend out 70 miles!!! So would that be 140 miles from the center or what? That's almost double what it was at 5pm.
Okay, I might make some people here mad, but those people that are staying on the barrier islands are idiots. This storm is NOT Frances, for crying out loud. Yes, same track (almost) but a totally different monster. Not to mention the fact that she's barreling along at a good clip..which could mean she could be here sooner than expected.
I'm afraid that this will cause a sad amount of lost lives...all because they "don't want to go through this again." Who in their right mind WOULD?
And I wouldn't be surprised if Jeanne pulls a Charley on us at the last minute...which, in fact, looks exactly like what she's trying to do.


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:29 AM
Re: News updates

Quote:

I almost fell out of my chair when I read that the hurricane force winds extend out 70 miles!!! So would that be 140 miles from the center or what? That's almost double what it was at 5pm.
Okay, I might make some people here mad, but those people that are staying on the barrier islands are idiots. This storm is NOT Frances, for crying out loud. Yes, same track (almost) but a totally different monster. Not to mention the fact that she's barreling along at a good clip..which could mean she could be here sooner than expected.
I'm afraid that this will cause a sad amount of lost lives...all because they "don't want to go through this again." Who in their right mind WOULD?
And I wouldn't be surprised if Jeanne pulls a Charley on us at the last minute...which, in fact, looks exactly like what she's trying to do.


No, 140 miles ACROSS the center, not from the center.... Colleen, go to bed...you need some sleep. I'm gonna have to get my beuty rest here shortely also

mom2als
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:29 AM
Re: News updates

Quote:

I don't see him staying there after tonight though. He is the "eye" man. I just hope I don't see him 1/2 mile from my house again. You've gotta love JC, but you just don't like seeing him near your house.




I thought that too, but remember he was in FWB during Ivan. I remember my stomach dropping when I saw him there since my other house is there.


AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:30 AM
Re: News updates

Quote:

I almost fell out of my chair when I read that the hurricane force winds extend out 70 miles!!! So would that be 140 miles from the center or what? That's almost double what it was at 5pm.




Colleen, not exactly sure what you were referring to with the 140 miles, but yes it's gone from 45/150(hurr/t.s.) at 5pm to 70/205 at 11pm. She's gotten much larger very quickly that's for sure.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:32 AM
Re: News updates

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1055 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST STARTING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...AND THEN SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND WEST INTO THE INTERIOR.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OVER MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES IN THE EVENING SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE SURGE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS EXTREME NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ROUGH POUNDING SURF...RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE.

RESIDENTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET DEPENDING ON THE LOCAL TIDE DURING LANDFALL. THE GREATEST SURGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING WHEN LOCAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR 4 FEET. THIS PLUS THE STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE A BEACH FRONT SURGE NEAR 10 FEET. THE STORM SURGE EFFECTS WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT THE DUNES ARE IN A HIGHLY WEAKENED STATE.
MANY BEACHFRONT PROPERTIES HAVE ALREADY SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AND EROSION...MAKING THEM VERY VULNERABLE TO FURTHER DAMAGE.
INUNDATION OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONE BY SEA WATER IS POSSIBLE WITH SURGE AND WAVES BREACHING THE WEAKENED DUNES. NEAR SHORE ROADWAYS AND STRUCTURES ARE AT RISK. PROPERTIES AROUND INLETS AND ADJACENT CANALS WILL ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO INUNDATION AS WATER BACKS UP...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES.


erauwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:33 AM
You know it's bad when ......

When you are struggling to stay awake .... but is so close to 2am, you force yourself to stay up for that next advisory ... *yawn*

Breeezy
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:33 AM
Re: News updates

I've been away from the computer.....so how is she looking and what is the latest track? Does anyone have any thoughts about how the Brooksville and Inverness areas will fare? :?:

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:35 AM
Re: News updates

Quote:

Quote:

I You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_

Or what about when your office co-workers are coming to you for updates,every update and calling you V.I.P.I.R.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:36 AM
Re: You know it's bad when ......

Quote:

When you are struggling to stay awake .... but is so close to 2am, you force yourself to stay up for that next advisory ... *yawn*




That's the truth.

Here's the website for the NDBC station at Settlement Point in the Bahamas. Jeanne will pass over, or very near, this spot.

Settlement Point(Bahamas)


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:36 AM
Re: News updates

Jeanne pulling a Charley ? What does that mean ? Seems to me like landfall will take place somewhere between Jupiter and Melbourne .. Could be as far south as WPB., but I think she is at 26.5 and West Palm is at 27, so that means she doesnt have much wiggle room. Think we will see a more northward component later tommorow, once she crosses 77 or so.. Unless she picks up speed, which she could do..

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:39 AM
Re: News updates

I just looked at those WV loops and I have a question: is that H that was keeping Jeanne on that Westward course lifting north a little bit or is that wishful thinking on my part? First I see it moving a little to the west, then I see something else coming down from the north.
Please, am I seeing things or what?


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:43 AM
Re: News updates

Sorry, Toho...I meant intensity wise, not track wise. Charley went from a 1 to a 4 in 5 hours (or less). I was referring to her bombing out just before making landfall.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:46 AM
Re: News updates

2AM update in. Forward speed increased to 14mph, windspeed at 105mph, pressure at 962mb.

What's up with all the loops? They stop about 4 frames from the end.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:47 AM
Re: News updates

Melbourne NWS maps. No offense Skeet.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghls/hls_main.html
Surge Maps
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/atlas.html
Florida Evacuation and Shelter Maps
http://www.floridadisaster.org/


erauwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:48 AM
2am advisory

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 26.5 north...longitude 75.6 west or about 100
miles...160 km...east of Great Abaco Island in the northwestern
Bahamas. This is also about 270 miles...435 km...east of the
Southeast Florida coast.

Jeanne is now moving toward the west near 14 mph...23 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to
24 hours. On this track...the core of Jeanne will be moving across
the northwestern Bahamas later today.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph...170 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
24 hours...and Jeanne could become a major hurricane later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km...mainly to the northeast of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 962 mb...28.41 inches.



yay. i can go to sleep now ... considering setting my alarm for 5am .....


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:49 AM
Re: News updates

OK.. I am not sure if it can bomb like Charley.. Guess it depends on forward speed, seems to be a little dry air still around her. Guess we will find out NHC is not good at intensity either.. I am also seeing what you mentioned in the wv loop. Not sure what that is, but it does look like the ridge is pulling up some, or it could be the interaction with Jeanne. I am no expert with these things, but I see what you see, if that helps.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:53 AM
Re: News updates

Colleen, I also saw what you were noting on the WV loop. I will say that I had seen something similar this afternoon, but Jeanne kept on chugging west. I'm more inclined to believe that it's due to Jeanne and the ridge's interaction, rather than the ridge pulling out. It still looks pretty strong to the west and north of her.

tpratch
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:53 AM
Re: News updates

Winds do in fact extend up to 70 miles from the center.

Because we're dealing with a circle - that means...
(1/2 diameter or radius times pi = area)
20^2*pi = ~1250 sq mi area
35^2*pi = ~3850 sq mi area

Indeed - Colleen is wrong - it's not twice as large an area - it's more than three times the area...

Even though the windfield is not a perfect circle, the area is going to be most accurately represented by that good ol' fashion formula.

Pity I couldn't use HTML - then I'd be able to make that forumla look better

Up for water - off to bed now.

See you guys on the other side.

Bah - realized too late that colleen is further right...

revised though...

40^2*pi = ~5000 sq mi
70^2*pi = ~15000 sq mi

Still the same 3x increase - only a much larger area.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:55 AM
Satellite Loops

I believe the satellites go down for a period of time during the night. Don't know for how long, or if they all go down, but I do know they go down and that's why the last few frames have nothing new on them.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 01:56 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Ah, probably due to the position of the satellite in relation to the Earth or some such nonsense

Looks like, according to this website, that there aren't any sats taking readings/footage of the east coast.

J-Track


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:03 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

They go down every night for what is called the "eclipse" which is caused by shut-down to conserve batteries during the night. Unfortunately this period is longer when near an equinox, which just happened. The period is between roughly 345Z and 645z (or 1145p EDT till 245 EDT).

Eclipse Schedule

*edited to add link to eclipse schedule


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:06 AM
Thanks!

Thank you for answering my question .... I had a feeling that's what it was, but I wanted to be sure and it's always better to get other people's input.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:10 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Who replaces the batteries on the satellites?

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:11 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

The astronauts on the space station, of course.. DUH

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:11 AM
Re: News updates

Okay here is my 24 hr forcast for landfall. Its actually about 22hr forcast as I feel she will make landfall very close to midnight give or take a hour or 2. Jeanne will be a Cat 3 with winds near 120mph and higher gusts. Landfall will be close to Jupiter Florida. She will move very close to Lake Okechobee to near Arcadia-Sebring then move NW to Lakeland-Tampa area by evening then continue NNW to near Ocala by sunday night near 11pm (give or take a couple hours). There is a slight chance of a track currently as of 11pm still but this is doubtfull. I expect TS watches on the west coast to be upgraded to Hurricane warnings if the 12z runs stay the same as the OZ runs of now or are even more west cause I feel west-central florida will recieve winds near 80-90mph close to the center.
Currently outerbands are coming thru the bahamas and will come near the florida coastline by mid morning. The pressure should be in the 950mb range but maybe slightly lower. Again many tornados will be spawned from the outerbands advancing throughout the state. The circulation will have winds up to 80miles from the center near landfall to about 20 miles by time it gets to W Central Florida. Movement now is to the west or jogs just north of due west and this should continue up to landfall. A turn to the wnw will occur around then. Eventually she should turn NW then N by Sunday night. Ok why will she turn??? Well to tell ya the truth its not the trough over the southern plains fully. It will be first affected by a upper level low in the western gulf right now moving ne due to the trough. Jeanne will start to feel the upper low and move more NW. Now how fast she gets into florida and how fast the upper low gets towards the NE gulf is the question on timing of the N turn from over the state or near the western florida coastline. Anyways nevertheless hurricane should come inland and along the forecast path.


AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:14 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Quote:

They go down every night for what is called the "eclipse" which is caused by shut-down to conserve batteries during the night. Unfortunately this period is longer when near an equinox, which just happened. The period is between roughly 345Z and 645z (or 1145p EDT till 245 EDT).

Eclipse Schedule

*edited to add link to eclipse schedule




Thanks!


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:16 AM
Re: News updates

I'm a tad curious why they only brought the winds up to 105mph when the last recon had flight level winds at 110kt...which is I believe extrapolate to 115mph at the surface. Any thoughts? Maybe just the NHC wanting to keep from freaking out shell-shocked Florida with another Cat 3?

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:16 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Oh, RIGHT! DOH! How long do they stay up there? Like 24 years or something? Do they draw straws to see who get to float around replacing all the C batteries??? Can the Russian astronauts read the directions?

Sissy
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:17 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Am I seeing things again? The models have now come into a pretty solid agreement. And the UKMET has changed.

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

Sissy


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:18 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

They use thousands of those tiny hearing aid batteries. Takes 24 years just to replace them. *waits for us to get chastised for being off-topic*

It's pretty late so I am not too worried....yet.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:20 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

recon now has pressure down to 960mb

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:24 AM
Re: News updates

No, I don't think they would do that, Domino. They may want to get more readings and bump it up at 5am. It's not like she's almost making landfall, so they can't keep the intensity level down. We'd all know. However, with Charley, the pressures dropped to 944 and they still had it as a Cat 1 until it was almost ON LAND...at a Cat 4. Plus, they'd be putting themselves at risk if they downplayed the intensity, which would NOT go over well with the US government.
I don't think Max plays games, they did say it could be a CAT 3 before making landfall, and on the current track it's taking, a Cat 3 is more a probability than a possibility.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:27 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

When I try to pull up that page, it just give me a red X at the top, but when you go to the bottom, it's plotting coordinates for Lisa.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:30 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Don't worry, Storm Cooper...we have a knack for knowing when to go back on-topic.

Scott...it's dropped 2 mb's already? Great. How much time between those two readings? Thanks!


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:33 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Colleen they didnt have it a cat 1 with pressure at 944mb or am i reading it wrong. They had him as a Cat 2 almost a 3 then pressure droped markably down to that range and winds they uped to 145mph.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:35 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Colleen does your husband tell you to get to bed? Your on alot, but thats great though.LOL

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:41 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Im off for the night.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:42 AM
Charley

All I remember is this: when Charley was still near the Keys, the pressures were dropping but the winds were not increasing. I remember the announcement that it was a Cat 4 because it stunned everyone...including the local mets.

My husband knows I can't sleep when there's a hurricane near us....so he doesn't even attempt to make me go to bed, LOL. However, that being said, I do have 2 football games to attend tomorrow, so I should TRY to get some sleep. I don't think that Jeanne's going to stop dead in her tracks just because I turn off the light.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:44 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Okay I'll try to straighten the satellite/ eclipse mess out.
The satellites are in an eclipse every night right now, from 0345Z -0645Z (roughly). The eclipse is caused by the satellites being in a direct path between Earth and the Sun. The Sun's "noise" level overrides the satellites signal. None of the satellite's transmissions/ pictures would be received on Earth, so they shut the batteries off, by remote control, to conserve battery life.
I Do Not believe the batteries are replaceable. I'll check with FrankP tomorrow and verify that. Once the batteries die the sats float around as space junk. Or fall back to Earth as space junk chunks.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 02:44 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Yes, me too. Nite all...and stay safe wherever you are...

maxhat
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 03:11 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

I have a question about the advisory's. When they say that hurricane force winds extend outward 70 miles from the center of the eye, does that mean that hurricane force winds extend 140 miles all together? And also, do you have to take into account the size of the eye itself, and add that to the hurricane force winds along with the tropical force winds, when you are trying to figure out how far the storms winds extend?

Mooshie-SC
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 03:13 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

What are the odds that Jeanne will turn north early and skirt the Florida coast as she approaches SC?

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 03:21 AM
Looking more and more like Daytona area

I get the feeling Daytona is on Jeanne's mind.. since most of the cain's this year have stayed left until just before landfall and then jaunted right, I see no reason why Jeanne will be any different. I look for her to head towards Cocoa and then jaunt to Daytona at the last minute up through Florida and out to the Atlantic at Fernandia Beach and back ashore at Garden City and back out at Hampton Roads. No way do I see her coming across Florida's mid-section anymore.

How did I get this? Her track makes a large 'E' over the last 2 weeks. Cocoa starts with C, Daytona starts with D and she has made an E - Fernandia starts with F and Garden City with a G and out again at Hampton Roads. It's the only logical answer.

No, just kiddin.. the trough is going to quickly accelerate her in a more northerly motion giving her the last second jaunt in at Daytona and up inland towards Jax.


FreakedInFlorida
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 03:25 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

I asked the same question earlier. Skeetobyte told me that the 70 miles is from the center of the eye, not from the eyewall, so it's 140 miles across.

My question is whether the wind is exponential in falloff from the eyewall or it a constant degradation to the outside? And is the max winds of the storm considered only in the NE quadrant or do they consider an average of all quadrants?


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 03:40 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Quote:

Okay I'll try to straighten the satellite/ eclipse mess out.
The satellites are in an eclipse every night right now, from 0345Z -0645Z (roughly). The eclipse is caused by the satellites being in a direct path between Earth and the Sun. The Sun's "noise" level overrides the satellites signal. None of the satellite's transmissions/ pictures would be received on Earth, so they shut the batteries off, by remote control, to conserve battery life.
I Do Not believe the batteries are replaceable. I'll check with FrankP tomorrow and verify that. Once the batteries die the sats float around as space junk. Or fall back to Earth as space junk chunks.




slightly off topic, but aren't these puppies in Geosynchronous orbit? which means when they fail, they're not going to fall back to earth for a really... really... really... long time (I'd say more likely to be swallowed up by the sun than fall back to earth

back To jeanne... The explosion of convection on the *southeast and south side is frightening*
on the NHC, I don't know what the dark color is past
red, but it's got a lot of it (-80 or colder?).. and it's about to go over
the bahamas. about the only good news, it looks like the dry air is still kinda keeping the storm from absolutly exploding in intensity at this point. The eye looks smaller and it's still tracking basicly due west. 26.3N and 75.9 West as of 07:15 Zulu.

Sigh
Mark


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 03:43 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

I'll give both questions a shot. This is off the 8pm advisory.
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 105SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 400SE 400SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
In a perfectly symmetrical storm over open water, yes, 70 miles from the center, in all directions.
They say "Hurricane force winds extend...", so that would be winds in excess of 65mph. Whether you have a 10 mile or 40 mile eye.
Jeanne's eye at last report was 40miles in diameter. So the hurricane force winds extend 30 miles beyond the eye.
Tropical storm force winds would extend another 135 miles beyond that.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 03:50 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

t- numbers up to 5.5/5.5 winds probably 115mph now , so might be cat 3 at 5am advisory

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 03:51 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Well, the good news is that if it makes landfall around 3-4 AM as the graphic suggests, that will be near low tide (4:42 AM at Cape Canaveral) which should help a lot with the surge. High tides, again at Canaveral, are predicted at 10:07 AM and 10:30 PM Saturday, 10:51 AM and 11:21 PM Sunday and 11:36 AM Monday.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 03:53 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

So does that mean that an approximate diamiter of storm would be 175 miles? if not...please advise..BTW...i cant log in

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 03:55 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Mooshie, not very high at this time. The 3-4 hours without satellite, I can't detect Any Northward movement. If I zoomed in I might be able to see a pixel difference, but I don't think so.
To answer your question, if you are going to see Jeanne, you will see her after she makes a FL landfall, and that will be in less than 24hours, in the area between Ft Pierce and West Palm Beach. Based on NHC probs from the 11pm advisory.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:01 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

right now the storm is 410 miles wide,the hurricane force winds are in the middle of that which is 140 miles wide

meto
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:02 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

it is strengtning now. prob near 120. and it will be in 88 water temps down the road, very scary......

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:07 AM
Eclipse Period

As found on the Naval Research Laboratory's website:

Q7. What is a satellite eclipse period ?

A7. Since GOES is in a geosynchronous orbit, the sun will yearly traverse a +/- 23.5 degree angle perpendicular to the Earth’s equator (GOES orbit plane). As a result, near the Vernal and Autumnal Equinoxes the Earth disk will periodically occult the sun, from a GOES perspective. Essentially, there are two eclipse seasons for each GOES spacecraft. Each eclipse season spans a 48-day period, symmetric around the equinox and the sun occultation lasts for a maximum of 72 minutes/day during the equinox. Each GOES spacecraft utilizes a solar array that converts sunlight into electricity in order to power the satellite. Each day during the eclipse season the sun is blocked by the Earth and sunlight is not available to the GOES solar array. Therefore, the energy needed to power the instruments is not available and the instruments are powered off. There is typically a 0–3 hour outage of imagery each day as GOES progresses through eclipse season. The maximum outage of 3 hours will occur at or near the equinox.

PS: We were joking about the batteries!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:08 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

OK....so I guess I am closer to hurricane force winds than I thought.
26.2N
80.1W


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:09 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Bloodstar: you are right on target with the sats. I just threw in Murphy's law for the space chunks.
SouthFLhappygal: No mam, we were just talking wind fields.
This link will give you a better idea of how the winds are set up.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/250241.shtml?


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:14 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Soflahappygal. Are those your coordinates? Where are you - Sea ranch lakes??

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:17 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

just inland from there....evacuated today

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:18 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

yes those are my coordinates

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:25 AM
Pressure drops, and recon fixes, and my 1.5 cent forecast

Since 02:40 Zulu to 5:56 Zulu:

Pressure dropped 4mb (.9mb an hour drop)

Movement, .07degrees N... .70 Degrees west

Dunno how much has been mentioned about various model runs... but

the 25 0000Z cmc run has the storm following a near frances track....

the 25 0000Z jma has it over Orlando

the 25 0000Z also has it doing an orlando run... and incidentally moves lisa to 19N 60W at 144 Hours (which may not matter)

the 25 0000Z gfdl shows 2 different solutions (really) the jeanne track keeps it very east... barely hitting the coast. however when the model run focus's instead on Lisa, Jeanne takes a very westerly track and makes it to the west coast before recurving.

the 25 0000 AVN also takes the storm to the west coast before recurving it sharply... and incidently has a low pressure develop in the bahamas (but isn't AVN notorious for making up spurrious low pressure systems?)

24 1200Z nogaps does a frances track as well.

Actually the 25 0000Z now pulls the storm all the way to the west coast as well before curving it.

what does it all mean? well, for one I'm not sure
where the plots are coming from on the various sites
but my eyeballs are telling me something different.

Taking a stab at forecasting and predicting (which do not take this forecast seriously beyond a rank amature who knows more about Diablo II than weather forecasting):

As of 5am Jeanne will be moving along at 14mph with movement just north of due west at 285 degrees windspeed will be bumped to 115mph. I also think they're going to change the tropical storm watch on the west coast to a hurricane watch at 5am (particularly with the model runs giving too high a risk to the west coast)

by 11am the hurricane will be straighten back out to a due west movement and increase speed to 16mph. Wind speeds will be bumped again this time to 120mph

I'm going to call for a landfall at Juno beach 26.8N 80.0W around 11pm with sustained winds of 115MPH. unfortunately I'm also thinking it is going to pass over Lake okechobee. and then shift to a true wnw motion 300 degrees. Tampa should get a sideswipe from the storm and and Bradenton is where the storm will exit out into the gulf for a brief period of time...

It will then start a hard curve and come *back* in around Perry Florida In Taylor County as a minimal Hurricane. It will weaken further and exit out somewhere near Savannah. clip the outer banks as a tropical storm, and then go away.

*gets his crow out*

My reasoning:
The models are onto something with the recurvature...but the models have, as pointed out, been very right biased with any motion of the storm. Looking at the latest models, there is no reason to doubt their accuracy, except I still think that all of the right bias hasn't left the models quite yet. In addition, with the heaviest convection staying consistantly on the south side of the storm the last 6 hours, I think that should continue to pull the storm in a more southerly motion than it'd otherwise typically go.

My intensity forecast, I think may be a tad light, but the dry air should, hopefully, keep the storm from doing a charley boom.

ok, it's late... I'm going to go ahead an rest.
be safe and good luck all
Mark


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:26 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

I hope you are at least west of Hwy A1A, and better yet I-95.
If she happened to turn toward the south just a little bit you would be in the bad sector. Stay west of A1A and SR 611.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:36 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Daniel,
I am west of A1A. I live acroos the street from the beach...aka A1A. I am a native of this area...so I know to take head to the "voluntary evacuation" and get out when they say to! I am east of I-95 but west of US 1. The only storm I have ever seem them evacuate west of US1 was Andrew and TG we didn't get hit. There is not any waterways west(or even near) of US1. I live at about 26.4N in Deerfield Beach. Sorry for rambling on....I just woke up and I am trying to get my bearing on the storm. I will be OK. I am prepared and have supplies(for what thats worth).
26.2N
80.1W
Thanks for the advice
Kathy


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:42 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Okay Kathy, you sound safe. I was just making sure.
BTW-her pressure dropped 2mb. It's now 958mb.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO EAST CAPE
SABLE...AND NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE



Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:45 AM
5am public advisory

pressure at 958, west at 14mph, 26.5N 76.2W wind speed not increased, maintained at 105mph, forecast to become a major hurricane.

extended the tropical storm watch on the west coast, but no other changes...

maybe they're waiting till 11am so people can get some sleep?

anyway, on a side note... read this about Remanant low Ivan:
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT...03Z...POSITION...THE REMNANT LOW OF IVAN
WAS NEAR 30.6 NORTH LATITUDE AND 94.9 WEST LONGITUDE...OR
APPROXIMATELY 35 MILES EAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS AND MOVING SOUTH
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB OR 29.94
INCHES.

it's the moving south bit that has me going .... sigh

Mark


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:48 AM
Re: Jeanne Update

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JEANNE WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:55 AM
And for those of you keeping score on Ivan...

Looks like Ivan is about to make it back to the Gulf. Have the use nuclear weapons been authorized to make sure this thing *stays* dead this time?

Someone should have told the NHC the best way to kill the undead is to shoot them in the head....

I'd ask if it's December yet, but I don't even know that'll stop this season....

Mark

So what do they do with the 5am? they declare it no longer discernable on satalite... Why can I see a twist at 29N and 96W?

well... good riddence anyway... even if I think it's a mite bit premature...

Mark


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:56 AM
Not good for us over here

Unfortunately, Tampa Bay area will be at one of the highest tides Sunday morning about noon when Jeanne passes through at her height: 2004-09-26 11:24 AM EDT 2.53 feet High Tide at Madeira Beach. If we are to see a two and one-half foot high tide coupled with another two to three foot surge, homes whose seawalls face the north are going to see some flooding over the seawalls here.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:57 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Thanks Daniel...you are correct in making sure people are safe, there are so many people that are in an "ignorant" state of mind. They havent seen what I have. in '64 not sure what storm name..was my first cane! I was in diapers and got a good education of what Mother Nature can do ! (and the rest is history). Most people that live here are CLUELESS!!!! If I had my rathers I would be out of the state for the storms. But I am guarding the "family jewels". My mom is in the smokies@summer home. Looting is a big problem after canes. So here I am....playimg guard and hurricane...instead of monopoly and clue...LOL
I am getting tired this season.......
"stop the ride I wanna get off"
Kathy


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 04:58 AM
Re: And for those of you keeping score on Ivan...

Wasn't Ivan the storm that the company in Pensacola was going to dump all the stuff into it to slow it down? Maybe what they did was make him angry?

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:02 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Quote:

Thanks Daniel...you are correct in making sure people are safe, there are so many people that are in an "ignorant" state of mind. They havent seen what I have. in '64 not sure what storm name..was my first cane! I was in diapers and got a good education of what Mother Nature can do ! (and the rest is history). Most people that live here are CLUELESS!!!! If I had my rathers I would be out of the state for the storms. But I am guarding the "family jewels". My mom is in the [Email]smokies@summer[/Email] home. Looting is a big problem after canes. So here I am....playimg guard and hurricane...instead of monopoly and clue...LOL
I am getting tired this season.......
"stop the ride I wanna get off"
Kathy


Danny is a good trooper. I try to NOT be 'ignorant', but Danny checked me out too <grin>. We met when I was stationed in the AF at Biloxi during Camille. He was a 'kid' back then. He was one of the kids I probably met when the USAF troops helped try to clean up the devistation caused by Camille. I probably didn't 'formally' meet him, but we share a common Storm, so to speak. We met again after Charley on tis forum. Danny needs to go to bed too....

KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:05 AM
Re: 5am public advisory

I'm not sleeping. I've been up since 2am. Weather radio has already gone off twice in the last few minutes, so a lot of other people might not be sleeping, either!

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:06 AM
5AM Discussion

"It would not be a surprise to see Jeanne get stronger than that...and reaching category four status is not out of the question"

This is getting scary!!!


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:07 AM
Re: Safe Side

I think we are probably going to see a lot more casualties with Jeanne than we did with Frances. For one reason or another, I just don't think people are doing the right thing. Getting OUT. I can understand they are tired of getting out every weekend. But If you don't get out, you may never have another chance.
I particularly do not like the images I'm seeing, with regard to the convective buildup on the SW quadrant.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:08 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Good Mornin Richard!
I just woke up and I am trying to figure out Jeanne! I guess if I got off this laptop and watched the TV , that might help. What year was Camille?
God's speed and blessings to all
Kathy


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:08 AM
Words that are never welcome

From the 5am Discussion "Given the current
trends...the intensity forecast will go a little higher and call
for 105 kt. It would not be a surprise to see Jeanne get stronger
than that...and reaching category four status is not out of the
question."

need I say more?

good night all
Mark


Sadie
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:13 AM
Alarm Just Went Off

I go to bed early, thinking T/F winds, need to pack up the farm tomorrow, hope we don't lose power again. Manageable. Trundle out to the kitchen at 4am for a drink, hit refresh, and read 'Arcadia' and 'Charley'. Am now WIDE awake.

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:17 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

Eye now showing on radar loop.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:18 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Richard, Are you still up?? I for once am getting paid, as I'm still at work.
Kathy and all, NHC did say the " 4" word. Just making sure you guys and ladies noticed.
They weren't talking about a golf game either.
More like go forth and leave now!!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:19 AM
Re: Words that are never welcome

OMG......
This season is beating me up!
26.2N
80.1W


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:20 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Quote:

Good Mornin Richard!
I just woke up and I am trying to figure out Jeanne! I guess if I got off this laptop and watched the TV , that might help. What year was Camille?
God's speed and blessings to all
Kathy


Camille 1969. That was a rough night also. It looks like we have another bad night ahead tommorrow. I woke up to see the 5pm forecast. Gonna get a few more winks now that I am sure Orlando is likely to be on the 'bad' side of the storm. I have moved my stuff to safety (I hope) and me and the cat will follow by late afternoon. You know, when you anticipate being homeless by Sunday, you tend to ensure you have *everything* packed that will fit in the trunk and back seat. I hate losing the trailer, but all of the furnature, dishes, 2nd TV and tape drives and .... you know, a bunch. Three times this year I've b I've been lucky, done the drill and the tin-box survived even when some of my neighbors weren't so lucky. This is a stronger storm potentially than Charley was and with the currently forecast track, this time I might not be so lucky. While I'd really like to move out of my mobile home, I'd really like to do it on my own terms! Get away from that A1A and even I-95 I think you said you lived near. Find a strong buillding on high ground and I wish you safe haven and no losses.

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:27 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Quote:

Richard, Are you still up?? I for once am getting paid, as I'm still at work.
Kathy and all, NHC did say the " 4" word. Just making sure you guys and ladies noticed.
They weren't talking about a golf game either.
More like go forth and leave now!!


No Danny, I'm not 'still' up, I'm up again

Don't worry, I'm the original git whilest the gittin' is good guy, Remember? I' am about 15 min away from my bosses house, high and dry and a bunch stronger than this tin-box I live in. You KNOW I'll leave in plenty of time....I love my cat too much to expose that critter to any real danger. Just washing clothes and stuffing them into garbage bags for transport later this AM. I'm glad you're getting paid this time...I think my school will be closed and that means more unpaid vacation time....Oh well, at least my boss will know how to contact me <grin> Good morning.... Now, for some more 'couch time' for an hour or two. Us old-farts need our beauty rest, you know.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:31 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

I know the feeling of what do I take with me? What matters most?
WELL.......your well being means most. DVD'S...VCR's...PUTER"S physical things can be replaced. The CAT can't be......I have mine with me also.
Leaving everything behind isn't easy. With Frances I didn't know what I would find when I went back "home". I was fortunate....nothing happened! But mentally parting with your life...to not know if it will be there when you get back is TOUGH! I wish you the best and the same...safe haven and no losses
"Stop the ride, I wanna get off"!


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:36 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

ROBINS : I read your PM and decided to answer.
Skeetobite has some dynamite maps on here. Go to page One of this thread, and scroll down looking for this link.
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/
It will lead you to the most current map based on NHC advisories. Be sure and check the Map Time. as Skeet can't stay up 24/7.
He will start doing street level maps sometime today, probably 11am.
The links to his map are ALWAYS on page One of each thread.
In answer to your question. Based on the 11pm advisory, and a rough estimate (Osceola County) Skeet's map track goes really close to you. Make absolutely sure you have everything you need.
You have probably heard the drill by now.
Water, water, water. Ice, ice, ice, food, batteries.
Put water in everything you have washer, sinks, tubs.
There were some really good hints on the thread before this.
"Hurricane Warnings Up for Florida City....."
Good luck and I hope none of you need it!


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:42 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Richard, what I should have said was that I Have to be awake. And you don't. Except for washing and packing. And that's a great idea. Everyone wash ALL your clothes, power may be out for a while. If it doesn't go out then you don't have to worry about the clothes for a few days.
Richard, and Kathy you guys get a nap. I've got 3 hours and it's my turn.


RobinS
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:44 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Thank you so much for responding. I also wish no harm or loss to all. I will be passing on this site to everyone. Even though I have gone through Charley and Frances one can never be prepared enough mentally. This site with all of you have eased some anxiety as odd as that may sound. I guess it maybe a case of reading different views and having "hands-on" research is alittle more calming then watching tv with past hurricane damage horror. Thank you all. God Bless and Be Safe.

Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:46 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Quote:

ROBINS : I read your PM and decided to answer.
Skeetobite has some dynamite maps on here. Go to page One of this thread, and scroll down looking for this link.
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/
It will lead you to the most current map based on NHC advisories. Be sure and check the Map Time. as Skeet can't stay up 24/7.
He will start doing street level maps sometime today, probably 11am.
The links to his map are ALWAYS on page One of each thread.
In answer to your question. Based on the 11pm advisory, and a rough estimate (Osceola County) Skeet's map track goes really close to you. Make absolutely sure you have everything you need.
You have probably heard the drill by now.
Water, water, water. Ice, ice, ice, food, batteries.
Put water in everything you have washer, sinks, tubs.
There were some really good hints on the thread before this.
"Hurricane Warnings Up for Florida City....."
Good luck and I hope none of you need it!


Thanks Danny, I also answered Robin's PM and I forgot to mention Skeeters maps. She is just south of my location so I think I probably got the picture right and answered accordingly. Keep up the good work my friend.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:55 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Well they say two heads are better than one. And since you've been sleeping yours is better than mine right now.
Meanwhile changing of the Recon aircraft is taking place, so the bad news is no center updates for a couple of hours.
For you that need a nap, go get one. They can do satellite estimates, but I don't think they will do anything drastic, without a recon observation.

Recon is tasked with 12Z, 15Z and 18Z fixes, for this flight.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 05:56 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Daniel and Richard,
I washed clothes last night....I filled my vehicles yesteday mornin! I have plenty of canned goods...have candles, flashlights and gas grill. But for some reason.......all that prep doesn't seem to make me feel OK. Jeanne isn't gonna be nice to US.
"stop the ride, I wanna get off"
If i make it through this cane season....I am moving outta FL


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:00 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

I don't think you will be the only one moving after this season.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:06 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

I have a theory: Only pay attention to the track (the middle line) when jeanne is at least 100 miles away from landfall. At this time I believe the charts are indicating Vero Beach area. But everyone north of central PB County will feel these hurricane winds-and there is the probability for a category 4.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:07 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

Has anyone noticed the Upper level Low in the Central GOM?
It's been slowly gaining convection all night.


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:10 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Quote:

Daniel and Richard,
I washed clothes last night....I filled my vehicles yesteday mornin! I have plenty of canned goods...have candles, flashlights and gas grill. But for some reason.......all that prep doesn't seem to make me feel OK. Jeanne isn't gonna be nice to US.
"stop the ride, I wanna get off"
If i make it through this cane season....I am moving outta FL


I understand your feelings well, but DON'T move. Florida is a nice place to live most of the time. This is a VERY unusual season and a historical, once a century type of season. It has been many many yeaars since we've had anything really bad more than a bunch of scares every year or so. Andrew,, and Donna and really damaging storms don't hit us all that often. Besides, most of the SE states have floods, the NE has blizzards, the West has droughts and tornados, the MidWest is tornado alley, the West has volcanos, the SouthWest has earthquakes, Alaska has long winters, volcanoos *and* earthquakes. Hawaai has Typhoons and tidal waves... Where are you going to go. Something will always put you at risk, at least Florida is nice 99.99% of the time....'[cept for the Yankees <grin>

Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:12 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

From St. Lucie County,Kids wont be starting back to school from Frances on Monday.
It is starting to look like this could be the big one. I still have a lot of prep to do here at my house this morning but have all we need and have practiced the routine. Frances was a good dress rehearsal for what things could be like here tonite. Problem is a lot of tired stressed people and building that haven't even begun to recover yet. I fear the complacency of those who are to tired to run and have a feeling of made it through the last one and waiting to stick it out again.
The Cat three condition that are looking probable here tonite with possible Cat 4 are numbing. There arent a lot of folks who have that experience to relate to. I just hope they have watched the landfall reports from Ivan and Charley and relize, yes things can get a lot worse than Frances Frances which spanked this area stronger than any other and left thousands with homes that are unlivable or compromised. Blue roofs abound every place you go. The rains from system between Ivan 1 and Ivan to have left the waters way, way up. I think all areas of the county got at least 4 inches minimum from that earlier in the week.
I will moniter site as much as I can today and nite but getting feeling won't have time to do much posting. Excuse my typing and spelling errors. Don't have time this morning to proof.
My best to all in the path and please let this be the last of the season for all of us.
Hurric


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:20 AM
Re: Satellite Loops

I see the convection, but doesn't it need a little "spin" for development?

LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:37 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

He's right. Wherever to go, you are going to be at risk for some kind of natural disaster.

The NWS keeps moving the track more west. Jeanne has picked up speed, I believe there is still a chance that she may cross the penninsula into the GOM. Call me crazy.....:)





I understand your feelings well, but DON'T move. Florida is a nice place to live most of the time. This is a VERY unusual season and a historical, once a century type of season. It has been many many yeaars since we've had anything really bad more than a bunch of scares every year or so. Andrew,, and Donna and really damaging storms don't hit us all that often. Besides, most of the SE states have floods, the NE has blizzards, the West has droughts and tornados, the MidWest is tornado alley, the West has volcanos, the SouthWest has earthquakes, Alaska has long winters, volcanoos *and* earthquakes. Hawaai has Typhoons and tidal waves... Where are you going to go. Something will always put you at risk, at least Florida is nice 99.99% of the time....'[cept for the Yankees <grin>




KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:43 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Just received this via email from Emergency Email.org:

HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES.
A DIRECT STRIKE ON SO. FL IS LIKELY.

AREAS AFFECTED.
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PALM BEACH.BROWARD.MIAMI-DADE.GLADES. HENDRY.COLLIER.& MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES OF SO. FL.

WATCHES & WARNINGS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH.BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE METRO AREAS & LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GLADES.HENDRY.WESTERN PALM BEACH.& WESTERN BROWARD COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COLLIER & MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR INLAND COLLIER AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:43 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

The NRL track is out for the 5 am:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:44 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Maybe someone with way more knowledge than me can answer this question. If jeanne is at 26.5, has increased its forward speed to 14mph, and in the last public advisory they say this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, than why is the huricane center showing that slight curve which takes it to 27.3 at landfall? 24 hours at 14 mph puts it further west by 236 miles and if the storm is 240 miles east of the southeast coast and is at 26.5...you see what I'm getting at? In a way, it kind of reminds me of Andrew in that they anticipated this northwesterly turn but the NHC's advisories kept saying "movement west and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours". and it kept moving west. I'm sure there is something that I'm just missing. That high seems awful strong though and I even saw the local channel 9 weather guy say that the NOGAPS model has been the most consistent with it's track for the last 48 hours and it is the most westerly of the models. I'm soooo tired of this crap this year!

Tropicbird
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:45 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Morning jolt-forecaster Beven saying Jeanne *could* go to Cat 4. Who needs coffee?
Looking at the infrared there seems to be an awful lot of strong convection to the S of the eye. Does this mean that the 'weak' side isn't going to be so weak this time? It's slowly dawning on me that conditions in extreme So Fla could be worse here than with Frances, who didn't even knock out our power, particularily if she continues to ride along 26.5 rather than getting up to the forecast 27.3 or wherever.
Sorry for being so focused on my little corner of the world; I'm just trying to get an idea of what to expect down here. I can't even express how bad I feel for everybody along the coast to the north. Hang in there!


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:48 AM
Jeanne still at 26.5

Well, when is it turning? It is still at 26.5 with dead aim on Boynton Beach if it never turns. My pressure is already down to 29.68" and falling at a good clip. I'll check in from time to time, but only have a few more hours until the first bands and probable loss of power soon after. My weather station is up and running until I lose power. I have LI Phil's phone number and will call him with weather reports during the storm once I lose power. He will post them here. I hope everyone fairs well, but it looks like she could be a cat 3/cat 4 at landfall. Power may be out for weeks this time. Take care, Richie

KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 25 2004 06:50 AM
Re: Jeanne still at 26.5

Quote:

Well, when is it turning? It is still at 26.5 with dead aim on Boynton Beach if it never turns. My pressure is already down to 29.68" and falling at a good clip. I'll check in from time to time, but only have a few more hours until the first bands and probable loss of power soon after. My weather station is up and running until I lose power. I have LI Phil's phone number and will call him with weather reports during the storm once I lose power. He will post them here. I hope everyone fairs well, but it looks like she could be a cat 3/cat 4 at landfall. Power may be out for weeks this time. Take care, Richie




Richie - take care and stay safe! I'm also praying for the turn!

Karen
Naples


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:04 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

The guy on on one of the local Orlando stations (it might be channel 6), just stated that the UKMET has been the best for Jeanne. Then you have a guy on one of the other stations say that the NOGAPS has been the best.

Slight variations of a track of 5-8 degress will still have a big impact on exactly where this is going. Regardless, everyone near the forecast path should be making last minute urgent preparations. The weather is going to deteriorate fairly quickly.


LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:06 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

I am no expert by any means, but I have seen the same thing. The high is pretty strong, and I can't see the logic behind the NW turn. My gut feeling from looking at Jeanne with relationship to the high keep it on a westerly track. If anyone can explain why and how she will turn northwest and then north please explain. I think becuase she has picked up speed that the northerly and north westerly turn may not happen.

MaryAnn


Quote:

Maybe someone with way more knowledge than me can answer this question. If jeanne is at 26.5, has increased its forward speed to 14mph, and in the last public advisory they say this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, than why is the huricane center showing that slight curve which takes it to 27.3 at landfall? 24 hours at 14 mph puts it further west by 236 miles and if the storm is 240 miles east of the southeast coast and is at 26.5...you see what I'm getting at? In a way, it kind of reminds me of Andrew in that they anticipated this northwesterly turn but the NHC's advisories kept saying "movement west and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours". and it kept moving west. I'm sure there is something that I'm just missing. That high seems awful strong though and I even saw the local channel 9 weather guy say that the NOGAPS model has been the most consistent with it's track for the last 48 hours and it is the most westerly of the models. I'm soooo tired of this crap this year!




Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:07 AM
Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

Lord I know how tired and worn out you poor people must be.... but IF she becomes a major, and now I'm hearing talk of Cat 4, trust me, you DO NOT WANT TO RIDE THIS OUT.... IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE YOU WILL BE IN THE EYE WALL.... just call someone from Orange Beach, Perdido Key or Pensacola, who rode out Ivan and ask them.... I've been listening to their horror stories on TV for the past week....

And the problem is, you just don't know where exactly the eye wall will go.. and you are running out of time....

27.3 is not that much farther from 26.5 (.8 n) and it would not be difficult for Jeanne to turn towards the north slightly as she approaches landfall... all the models predicts some turn, that's a given, where is still debatable...

Case in Point... Ivan... heading directly towards the MS coast... and got as far west as 88.3, but turned off to the right just before inland at 87.7 (.6W).... granted this was not much, but if it gets you out of the eye wall and especially the eastern quad, it can be a tremendous difference between life and death, total devastation and absolute destruction, or just a few trees down....

Ivan was moving at a decent clip too when it made this life altering change, great for the MS coast, catastophic for the East Al and Fl Panhandle...

and a strong Cat 3 or greater is just that... A life altering experience.... you just don't want to take the chance it alters yours and your love one more than need be.....

Repeat........
DO NOT WANT TO RIDE THIS OUT.... IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE YOU WILL BE IN THE EYE WALL OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF IT......

good luck to all
I so feel your pain


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:11 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Well this track thing is fairly simple. I live in Babson Park in Polk County and, no matter what the projections, they end up going over my house. The eastern eyewall of Charley passed 3 miles to the west of us (ouch) and Frances went right over, allowing me to put fresh tarp on the roof at half-time.

So just get a marker and connect the current position with Babson Park, FL.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:14 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

I think with Frances there was a trough sitting over Florida, and she moved along that, much like Jeanne is doing now. She is going to follow the left-most part of the high; that's what's steering her into south/central Florida, and once there she will move in a poleward N/S direction around the high.

The path of least resistance, if you will. Hope that explains it better.


LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:18 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Thanks for your explaination Colleen, it helps put things in perspective.

By the way from you tag line, I think I may be a hurricane freak too.


Quote:

I think with Frances there was a trough sitting over Florida, and she moved along that, much like Jeanne is doing now. She is going to follow the left-most part of the high; that's what's steering her into south/central Florida, and once there she will move in a poleward N/S direction around the high.

The path of least resistance, if you will. Hope that explains it better.




OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:19 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

I just saw local channel 2 news in Orlando. I95 and the Beeline and I4 are still all relatively clear. I am afraid everyone is suffering from hurricane complacency here. People along the coast and all the other required evac areas need to do so now.

LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:23 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

He's right. If you have never seen a storm surge, here is a link to Hurricane Isabel and the storm surge experienced.

http://www.weathervine.com/hurricanes/isabel/9_18_03_surge.html

Heres another site for before and after pics of Camille:

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm



Repeat........
DO NOT WANT TO RIDE THIS OUT.... IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE YOU WILL BE IN THE EYE WALL OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF IT......

good luck to all
I so feel your pain




Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:24 AM
Monster Eye on Radar

Now showing up great on the long range radar loop out of Miami... pummeling the Bahama Islands...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

Boy, this reminds me of Andrew... but just a tad north.... some scary stuff going to happen soon in Fl...


Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:24 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

I hope no one is planning on trying to evac to Atlanta, cause just like on Labor Day weekend, hotel rooms are few and far between here....

Just a gut feeling here, but I'm thinking that if that High doesn't start to get a move on, Atlanta's gonna have some more problems with heavy rain and trees falling....

Worst case scenario? Jeanne, a re-formed Ivan III and this new Low in the gulf.....

Please someone send Mother Nature an industrial strength Midol cause she is mad about something.....

Seriously, everyone in the path of Jeanne, we here in Georgia are keeping you in our thoughts and prayers for a safe passage through this storm.


52255225
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:25 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Collen, Im just seeing this update, unbelivable! Im in manatee county. Do you think if it stays on this tract will we just have trop force winds here or cat 1 winds? I cant believe this crap again! Thanks

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:29 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

I got about 3-1/2 hours sleep today. I have packed up sleeping bags, pillows, food, etc. to drop off at the HS shelter this morning, as that's where the kids' football games will be played. Personally, I think that they should call off the games because this thing is not Frances, it's moving and it seems like everytime I look, it's moving faster...and getting bigger. I have had a bad bad feeling about this storm from the beginning and even though I know some people thought I was nuts, a Cat 4 was NOT out of my realm of possibility. I said last night (or this morning) that I was afraid this thing would bomb out before making landfall and I think that's exactly what might happen.
Frank---what will happen with Jeanne if she goes over Lake Okeechobee---I think that the Orlando channel showed water temps of 87 degrees. Wouldn't that just make this whole weakening trend upon landfall a mute point? I mean, could we be looking at a Cat III as far inland as Lakeland?
I don't know whether to cry, throw up or throw something.

I will make a suggestion: what if the people here on the board who live here in Florida gave our friends who live in places like MS, AL, TX, LI, etc. our relatives phone numbers so that they can relay information to them in case we can't? I know that it was hardest on my Mom when she couldn't get through during Frances. Since we're almost like family here anyway, our loved ones would be getting information from people that know about the storms and care about US.

Just a suggestion.


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:32 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

Coleen,

Where are you located? Check out the RAMSDIS water vapor loop. There is some interesting dynamics going on right now to the north. I am in northwest Orlando (Wekiva sub-division) and am really fearing this thing. It is expected to come very close to my house and I will be on the east side of the track.


Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:34 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

Just got this in my e-mail from my-cast.com from Melbourne NWS office....

WE ARE CONCERNED AFTER WATCHING SOME NEWS ACCOUNTS REGARDING RESIDENTS OF BARRIER ISLANDS WHO ARE PLANNING TO RIDE OUT HURRICANE
JEANNE BASED ON THEIR EXPERIENCES WITH HURRICANE FRANCES. WE HAVE DONE A DETAILED DAMAGE SURVEY OF THE COASTLINE OF THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE FRANCES...AND IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS TO REALIZE THAT THE WORST WIND AND STORM SURGE FROM FRANCES AFFECTED AN UNPOPULATED AREA OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND BETWEEN FORT PIERCE BEACH AND
JENSEN BEACH AND NETTLES ISLAND.

and.....

JEANNE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER ...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE INNER EYEWALL MAKES LANDFALL. AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THIS AREA WILL BE.
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME THIS MORNING TO COMMIT TO EVACUATING AS ADVISED AND MOVE TO SAFETY.
WE HAVE MADE IT THROUGH CHARLEY AND FRANCES WITHOUT ANY DIRECT DEATHS
FROM HURRICANE WIND OR WATER IMPACTS...PLEASE FOLLOW ADVICE OF YOUR COUNTY OFFICIALS AND LETS ALL MAKE IT THROUGH THIS AGAIN.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:37 AM
Re: Jeanne Moving West

Yes, there is a possibility that you could see Cat 1 winds. Denis Phillips mentioned that last night while stressing to those of us in Polk County just how worried he was about us. Just stay tuned to the locals weather stations...like you wouldn't be anyway, LOL. Denis Phillips is good, so is Steve Jerve. Phillips got my wrath when Charley missed TB but made a beeline for Polk County.
He's been bowing at my feet for weeks now.


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:39 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

I just saw channel 9 news in Orlando for the traffic report again. There is nobody on the roads! I4 is clear, the Beeline is clear, I95 is clear. What is going on? Hurricane compacency it has got to be!

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:41 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

Colleen, looks like your earlier fears maybe coming to fruition.... these things always have a surprise or two for us.... Ivans turn at the end spared us on the MS coast....

looking at the radar loops, Jeanne looks like she's hauling butt and the east coast of Fl will be getting some serious storms... sooner rather than later... and the faster she goes, the farther inland she brings those damaging winds... and if it were to go more south over Lake Okeechobee, its only adding more fuel to the fire....

If any members of the CFHC family would like my cell phone number to have available to relatives to relay storm information just send me a personal message and you will get it.... However, I will give it out to registered members only... sorry


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:42 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

Dan, I'm in south Lakeland near George Jenkins High School, about 10 miles north of Bartow. I'll expect the worst but hope for the best. We didn't lose power with Charley, the lights flickered with Frances, so I don't know what Jeanne holds in store for us.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:43 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

Thanks for the traffic update, lets just hope it stays that way. I have to run from Cocoa to Orlando Airport and back this morning to pick up a family member via the Beeline. Then off to work for the storm. Everyone be safe.

John


KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:49 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

Quote:

I got about 3-1/2 hours sleep today. I have packed up sleeping bags, pillows, food, etc. to drop off at the HS shelter this morning, as that's where the kids' football games will be played. Personally, I think that they should call off the games because this thing is not Frances, it's moving and it seems like everytime I look, it's moving faster...and getting bigger. I have had a bad bad feeling about this storm from the beginning and even though I know some people thought I was nuts, a Cat 4 was NOT out of my realm of possibility. I said last night (or this morning) that I was afraid this thing would bomb out before making landfall and I think that's exactly what might happen.
Frank---what will happen with Jeanne if she goes over Lake Okeechobee---I think that the Orlando channel showed water temps of 87 degrees. Wouldn't that just make this whole weakening trend upon landfall a mute point? I mean, could we be looking at a Cat III as far inland as Lakeland?
I don't know whether to cry, throw up or throw something.

I will make a suggestion: what if the people here on the board who live here in Florida gave our friends who live in places like MS, AL, TX, LI, etc. our relatives phone numbers so that they can relay information to them in case we can't? I know that it was hardest on my Mom when she couldn't get through during Frances. Since we're almost like family here anyway, our loved ones would be getting information from people that know about the storms and care about US.

Just a suggestion.




Colleen and all - I am in Naples. I know that all of us in Florida need to monitor closely. But, if things are safer here, I'd be willing to help out staying in touch with family members for anyone who needs it. I'm waiting anxiously for the local meteorologist to come on air.

Karen


SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:50 AM
Jeanne - NHC Advisory 47

Latest path up close & personal

New users:
These maps are based on the forecast coordinates from the National Hurricane Center. Do not focus strictly on the path forecast as large errors may occur. All areas under warning must prepare.

If a watch or warning is issued for your area, follow the advice & directions of your local news source or official weather outlet.

The wind fields depicted are based on maritime winds and are not as large or concentric over land.



Full size image available here: www.skeetobite.com/weather


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:51 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

Okay, reading all of these, I am now becoming concerned. I live in Seminole County- Winter Springs to be exact. Charley went through here and my house fared rather well, neighbors had wind and tree damage, neighborhoods surrounding us such as Tuskawilla and Casselberry had lots of trees down but of course nothing like Polk County or Osceola County got when Charley moved through. Francis, well that came through it was just wind and rain and little to no damage in my area. I live not in a flood area but near Sykes creek(next block) and /Lake Jessup (around 4-5 miles away). The rain in this most recent storm I do not believe would place us in flood risk as our house is on rather high ground, but the comments and long standing cautions of north and east of the eye wall have got me concerned, especially since we have been so fortunate in past storms. How much north and east we are is between Casselberry and Oveido and I have elderly parents nearby whom I am wondering should I bring closer to me as my home has usually beeen the one that everyone ends up gravitating to because of prompt restoration of power (and that I am the only one with a generator and window air unit). My parents liev in a condo but again are elderly (70's) and I do not believe could fend for themselves should something happen to a roof or window. I don't want to overkill the hype as they are only estimating the winds at around 85-90 but again, with a west Orlando path, this would place us northeast. Should we be very concerned or just cautious. I guess since we have been so blessed and protected thus far I am wondering if our time has run out?

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:52 AM
VERY GOOD EARLY MORNING ALL

Haven't had time to read thru everyone's posts...

Dog needs a walk & I have to go into "work" early to open a new headquarters in a few, but wanted to thank everyone for their great insights, info & posts...

Don't forget to vote...

http://jacksonville.com/

Should be back here late morning...for the duration...


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 07:59 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

If you're parents live in a condo, remember this: the winds are going to be higher the further up you go...so if they are on a higher level, they need to be moved down. I would listen to your County EOC Management, but if it were me, I'd go get them.
If it feels right in your head, your heart and your gut, just do it. Works for me everytime.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:02 AM
Re: VERY GOOD EARLY MORNING ALL

Well, I've got to get the football players fed, one's grumpy and the other one's sleepy. I am looking forward to the games on one hand because they will distract me for a while, but on the other hand, I'm afraid to come home and find out the storm's on the back porch.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:05 AM
New Info.

1- Local tv meteorologist has been saying it COULD become a cat. 4. before landfall. Local EOC contacted NHC and complained that tv station was creating a panic in the WPB area. Local station just went on the air live with the NHC, and NHC backed the station saying it is should be a cat. 3 and you should always plan for 1 cat higher.

2 - This just in from Thomas:
CAT 2 Jeanne continues to slowly strengthen.. Her track is still due west at an increased forward speed of 15 mph. Her eye wall is still large at approximately 40 miles but I expect it to begin decreasing in size. Also some dry air entrainment is occurring on her left side.

The NHC/TPC 5:00 am EDT advisory on soon to be CAT 3 Jeanne has shifted the track to the left, more in line with the track I first forecasted quite a few days ago. I expect more track shifting to the left to occur as Jeanne heads for a landfall somewhere between Palm beach and Fort Pierce on Sunday morning. It's also possible that my Tarpon Springs to Bayport exit corridor into the Gulf Of Mexico may have to be shifted further south down the west coast of Florida.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:06 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

Polk county shelters will be opening up at noon today. There are others but I know that Jenkins HS, Bartow HS, and Lake REgion HS will be used.

The Dave Cave
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:11 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

clhooper1;

Don't take the chance. Go get the parents. They will be more comfortable in a place with an air conditioner and generator anyway. 75-90MPH winds may not seem so bad but if Jeanne "blooms" to a Cat 4, that may be somewhat conservative. You also have gusts to worry about...


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:13 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

Quote:

I just saw channel 9 news in Orlando for the traffic report again. There is nobody on the roads! I4 is clear, the Beeline is clear, I95 is clear. What is going on? Hurricane compacency it has got to be!


I just came to the conclusion that except maybe for those living on the barrier islands, no one wants to evacuate INTO the center track. With Charley, Tampa evacuated to Orlando which turned out to be wrong and the East Coast wasn't expecting *anything*. With Frances, similar reasoning except East Coast isllanders *know* better than to stay this time but may not come too far inland because of the forecast track.....It may not be being complacent, but prudent....

SteveieB
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:19 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

I have to agree, people are not wanting to head into the worse of it. We have relates in Titusville, odds are they are staying there instead of heading into Oviedo where the winds should be worse.

Shalafi
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:21 AM
Re: Pressure drops, and recon fixes, and my 1.5 cent forecast

I love Diablo II...Sure wish I could take my Necro and defeat Jeanne...

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:27 AM
Dwarves...

>>> Well, I've got to get the football players fed, one's grumpy and the other one's sleepy

And the names of Colleen's next 5 children will be: Doc, Bashful, Dopey, Happy, and Sneezy


Shalafi
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:32 AM
Re: Florida.... this is NOT the time to be complacent....

I guess that's one good thing about these canes hitting us on the weekend, free weekend minutes! (when the cell towers are up and functioning)

Do you mean give your number to our relatives so you can update them? Or so we can call you when we lose power and can see what's going on?


sthorne
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:32 AM
Re: Dwarves...

I'm the oldest of seven, and my mother gave us all dwarf nicknames. I am "Doc."

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:32 AM
Uh Oh...

25/1145 UTC 26.7N 77.0W T6.5/6.5 JEANNE

Guess who's coming to dinner? CAT III Jeanne...

Can't you guys catch ONE break this season?

Fasten your seatbelts...


sthorne
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:35 AM
Re: Uh Oh...

Quote:


Can't you guys catch ONE break this season?





Seems not.

<--------- See the pic....Rabbit this is Bindi asking you to PLEASE send out the voodo hex!


Shalafi
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:42 AM
Re: Uh Oh...

We've had several breaks Phil! Alex, Danielle, Earl, Gaston, Hermine, Karl, Lisa...See? We're quite lucky!
Seriously tho, I'm a firm believer in the last line of my signature. We've had many years of drought and these rains are helping to refill out valuable aquifer. Yes there has been loss of life and property but we've also made friends, met neighbors and learned a LOT. The information obtained from these storms will help us in the future...say...next week when the next one rolls thru....

I'm just saying there is good in this even tho it's a terrible thing to go thru.

God bless everyone in her path.


nandav
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:43 AM
Re: Uh Oh...

So I wonder how much of a chance is it that Jeanne goes marching straight across the state... or turns N a little late.. and hits us with higher than tropical storm force winds. It's probably dumb to even ask if that's within the realm of possibility, since it seems that just about ANYTHING has been possible this season!

Since our house in Pt Charlotte is not quite liveable right now, we are actually in student housing at the local college .. and they will make us evacuate if we have hurricane warnings up ..which means going to the gym with 1700 college students!! (Although we have alternate arrangements.. if there's time .. but I wonder how much time we'll have if that scenario occurs!!)


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:43 AM
Re: Uh Oh...

Gotta go for a couple of hours...

Click here and check the "Forecast Points" box...might be making that northward turn at long last...


Bioman
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:44 AM
Re: Uh Oh...

new thread up head over there

WestPalmBeach Nole
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 08:46 AM
Re: Satellite Loops/Hurricane winds?

Well I am hoping that some people do move out of the state. I need a bigger house and there just isn't any inventory in the West Palm Beach area that meets my needs. My family has outgrown our current 2500 square foot home. My wife of 25 years, my 14 year old son and I have acquired two new roomies.... my mother and mother-in-law . Dear Lord cooped up in the house with shutters and nowhere to hide.......LOL. I hope that all you Florida residents stay safe.

Artsy Fartsy
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 25 2004 09:23 AM
Re: Uh Oh... (T- Numbers)

I have been a long time observer of this site, but only posted a few times. Like others I have questions about some of the terminology and acronyms that are used. The one that has me STUMPED are T-numbers. What are T-numbers and what do they represent.

Thanks for the info.



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