| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 03:42 AM |
Something new in the Bay of Campeche
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Not that anyone needs it.... we now have something new in the Bay of Campeche to keep an eye on. The TPC has shown some interest in this so all should be watching along the gulf coast...again.
There is a slow moving system there which is moving slowly northward and it has the potential to get organzied a bit maybe by Saturday (perhaps sooner). It would suggest a possible Tropical storm later, but we'll watch.
Development Potential Scale
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------------*-------]
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
Mount st. Helens Volcanocam animation
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 04:34 AM |
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HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast
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Flood Watches have been posted, most since Wednesday,
for all of the Texas coast from Brownsville to the Jefferson / Chambers county line. As of 3:30AM CDT-Thursday.
Clickable Map for warning and watches.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 05:19 AM |
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SW Gulf Of Mexico
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Satellite imagery from 0545Z to 0815Z indicates the convection in the SW GOM has increased in size and intensity. 0815Z IR imagery also indicates a marked increase in the lightning in the two convective areas.
Earlier mid-level circulation observed near 23.0N and 95.0W.
Latest imagery showing a circulation more to the SW of the 23.0/ 95.0 location.
Long awaited upper trough is moving into W Texas at this time,4AM CDT, and is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward.
See the above link for watches and warnings in your area.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 05:25 AM |
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5AM CDT Tropical WX Outlook
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS THAT EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 08:06 AM |
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Re: HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast
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Thank you
Flood Watches have been also posted for counties in Central and South Central Texas. They've been up for a couple of days already...
Hazardous Weather statements are up for all of Texas except for the counties surrounding El Paso.
They keep telling us we're going to have a gullywasher here, but so far in N Austin we've just seen scattered showers. Well except for the cats and dogs and rabbits we saw Sat night
But today's the day they predicted the highest chance for heavy rain...
'shana
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 11:22 AM |
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Scatt...
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Looks like we have the makings of a tropical system. Of course, the big debate is whether NHC will decide whether it is truly tropical, a hybrid, or extra-tropical. As long as NRL has it as 95L, there remains a chance it will be christened Matthew. In any event, heavy rains and flooding for Texas are likely, and the center should remain off the coast while being drawn northeast and east...eventually forecast to "landfall" near Pensacola, of all places
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 11:37 AM |
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Re: Scatt...
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This reminds me of TS Josephine in 1996. It will be a very lop-sided system, with most of the rain on the eastern side. It will probably start becoming extratropical as it moves across the NE Gulf, and will therefore have a large wind field. I doubt this will make it to hurricane strength, but it has the potential to be a strong TS. A typical October system.
On a side note, winds are 20-25mph here in Central Florida today. Pressure is high, and there is a strong gradient between the high pressure over us and the developing tropical system.
God Bless,
Ronn
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 11:53 AM |
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Re: Scatt...
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It also reminds me a little of TS Larry last year. As I remember that system hung around in the BOC for a few days getting itself together.
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 12:07 PM |
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Five for Florida?
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Landfall near Pensacola, eh? I'll refrain from uttering the obligatory cliche of "we don't need this" because the point is obvious.
I don't expect a major system, but I won't let my guard down either. That said, even a minor storm could wreak havoc on folks who are depending on simple blue tarps to keep rainwater out of their homes. With so much debris still piled up around us, as well as damaged structures and trees that could easily become debris, the danger is very real. I don't mean to sound alarmist, I just want to underscore just how fragile and tenuous the situation is for folks who have already endured mother nature's wrath. We've still got a lot of hurricane season left.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 12:27 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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NOUS42 KNHC 071600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1200 PM EDT THU 07 OCT 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z OCT 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-131
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 08/1800, 09/0000Z A. 09/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 03DDA CYCLONE
C. 08/1530Z C. 09/0330Z
D. 25.5N 95.5W D. 26.5N 93.5W
E. 08/1700Z TO 09/0030Z E. 09/0500Z TO 09/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST OF THIS AREA
TODAY IS EXPECTED NEAR 07/1900Z.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 12:36 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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ahhhhhh last weekend... no tropical worries. back to hurricane season now. do you really think it may get to trop. storm statis?? the longer it stays in the gulf i feel the better the chances are.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 12:38 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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Not sure about TS status. We got some shear but also some good SST's. I don't think there is much question of the general track whatever it becomes
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 12:40 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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Well I think the system down there is still a TD but I dont think it will really develop as westerly sheer will preclude anything.
If it does then a movement along with the NHC is forcasted.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 12:48 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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scott, can you please tell me the definition of extratropical?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 12:52 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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Quote:
scott, can you please tell me the definition of extratropical?
\Ex`tra*trop"ic*al\, a.
Beyond or outside of the tropics. --Whewell.
From Webster's 1913 dictionary...pretty lame definition if you ask me...
Extratropical is a term used in advisories and tropical summaries to indicate that a cyclone has lost its "tropical" characteristics. The term implies both poleward displacement of the cyclone and the conversion of the cyclone's primary energy source from the release of latent heat of condensation to baroclinic (the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses) processes. It is important to note that cyclones can become extratropical and still retain winds of hurricane or tropical storm force.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 01:04 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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So much for our trip to the middelgrounds. Good thing i got my fishing fix last Sun. Can't I just get 2 weekends to fish?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 01:19 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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Part of tally AFD...
.SHORT TERM...AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING TO THE NE...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON THE WAY
FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ETA AND GFS...WITH BOTH MODELS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF
THE GULF LOW ON THE 12 UTC RUNS. AFTER BEING VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN
E-NE MOVING SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE GFS HAS SHIFTED MUCH
MORE DRAMATICALLY THAN THE ETA...AND NOW BRINGS IT NORTHWARD THROUGH
LOUISIANNA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EVOLVE IN A VERY
BAROCLINIC MANNER...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUB-TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WHICH THE HURRICANE CENTER WILL BE WATCHING FOR VERY
CLOSELY. SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE INLAND TO OUR WEST...WE WILL END UP
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WITH
LESS OR A SHORTER PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE...PLAN ON
NUDGING THE GRIDS IN THAT DIRECTION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER
POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...CURRENT THINKING IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW
EASTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THEREFORE...UNSETTLED CONDITION MAY LAST
INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRACK...THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION AS THERE IS A STRONG DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND
ETA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...AND IT COULD USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 01:55 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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soon as snapper season ends the weather will clear..also usually after a storm the grouper fishing is great around here. in the paper it says it is but we sure haven't caught any and none of the structures moved that we have been to
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 02:33 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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There is a 1009.5mb low now on the coast near Tampico Mx moving inland. There is a mid level reflection of this low just east of there by about 50-100miles offshore. This should be the end of the questionable TD. A baronclonic low should form off the Texas coast during the next day or so. This will move up over La over the weekend as it goes along the western end of a strong mid latitude ridge over the eastern U.S............................................
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 02:34 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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Bagged a 23" annd 28" last Sunday. If i'm not mistaken we were just E of the Pasco County Artificial reef. The bite was very short however.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 02:43 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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Not so sure about this becoming more then a major rainmaker, judging from what I've seen, but who knows. Pensacola could really use some rain, its like a dry tenderbox here with dead trees and limbs piled high in every neighborhood. But rain could also be a bad thing because everyone has tarps up on there roof, in my neighborhood, every single house needs roof repairs but its gonna be awhile. Ya'll have a good one.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 02:53 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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Scott: don't disagree with your analysis on the future nature of this system, but the surface low is broad and still appears off shore to me.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 03:19 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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your seeing the mid level low off the coast. The LLC is on the coast and will weaken more as a low forms off the texas coast.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 04:25 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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While I see how the center could re-form under the mass of convection near the TX-Mex Border, I would be willing to say that the circulation down to the south (around 96W and 22N) could be classified as a weak depression without too many arguements against. (other than the arguement of, it's transient and shortlived....)
Mark
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 05:04 PM |
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Re: Five for Florida?
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The LLC or were I see retrograde motion of the cloud's is burrowed behind the cloud mass. Just as anticapated the cloud convection and cloud cover is reserved to the north or ahead of the storm. With that front pulling down, (only 74 in Dallas today) we could possibly see a mix of baroclinic forcing and convection fueling this mess, this will generate some nasty storms. The CAPE and the SWEAT values should be awfully high, tonight as there is an adbundance of low-level mositure and some significant lifting. In layman terms, a whole mess, those thunderstorms could produce some squall like weather and tornados. Be safe!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 05:50 PM |
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recon
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EXTRAP 1007 MB?
winds 35kts?
is it a true td?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 05:53 PM |
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Re: recon
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See this is what I don't get, how does a 1007 mb storm produce 40 mph winds?
If a storm has that much wind and seems to be strengthening one should lower the pressure in proportion. Prob. a TD at 11 pm or they'll make a special advisory.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 06:31 PM |
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water vapor
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what is going on?
been watching system in BOC and the front across mid us.... trying to figure whats happening, and i just see alot of moisture....but there seems to a chance something could happen....right now i see a ts bonnie like formation.....
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 06:37 PM |
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Re: recon
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I doubt any classification yet--I'll say probably Saturday morning
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 06:43 PM |
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Re: recon
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Even with 35kts and 1007, if you don't see a vortex message, that means no closed circulation= no storm.
1007 could easily produce 35 kts...especially with higher than usual atmospheric pressures in the environment.
For example--Andrew was a 45 mph TS with 1015 cp at one point!
sc
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 07:17 PM |
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Re: recon
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1007 just seems high for 40 mph winds, but you're right there are higher then nornmal heights in the enviorment and some some good pressure gradient flow. It's on it's way to having a closed circulation, I do think that it will become a hybird type storm because it's forming in an area of shear and there's a jet following the cold front down, which will provide some mixing. Maybe the southern portion of the storm will become a TD or TS and the northern portion will be a hybird. Just a thought. Fogot to login, whoops!
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 07:29 PM |
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Re: recon
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hybrid keith---not hybird...
sc
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 08:08 PM |
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Re: recon
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sorry, but you get the point...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 09:01 PM |
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Re: recon
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beginning to look a bit like Josephine did on 10-5-96 95L
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 09:03 PM |
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Re: recon
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The pressure is up to 1010 and the wind is down 25 kts...what will the 11 pm advisory say? These things are diurnal, nothing really happens at night, don't want to jynx anything thing, right Rabbit!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 09:12 PM |
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Re: recon
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pressure isnt up to 1010mb its at 1007mb
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 09:14 PM |
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Re: recon
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Also at nightime a tropical system gets better organized compared to a baroclonic system. The humidity, heat release over the warm waters and other factors play into the role of stronger TS and that leads to lower pressures.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 09:27 PM |
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Scott, I'm confused...
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Earlier you said the LLC was over Mehico, but tonight it seems as though you still think this is a TD (which I think it WILL be, but just not yet). Is this going to transition into an extratrop or baroclinic system, or will this possibly become Matthew?
And, the percentage you're paying is too high priced
While you're living beyond all your means
And the man in the suit has just bought a new car
From the profit he's made on your dreams
BP for the IDer
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 09:33 PM |
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Re: recon
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The NRL site must not have been updated. And I know about diurnal convection leading to nightime convection , say the insolation takes say 6 hours to radiate then the lowest temp at the surface we'll be observed at 3 in the morning then and the highest in the upper atmosphere, that's if there's no wind (mixing) and the lapse rates are similar throughout the troposphere.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 09:51 PM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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Quote:
And, the percentage you're paying is too high priced
While you're living beyond all your means
And the man in the suit has just bought a new car
From the profit he's made on your dreams
Traffic?
'shana
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 09:53 PM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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Quote:
Quote:
And, the percentage you're paying is too high priced
While you're living beyond all your means
And the man in the suit has just bought a new car
From the profit he's made on your dreams
Traffic?
Correct...and the song...
'shana
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 09:59 PM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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the low spark of high heeled boys
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 10:04 PM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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Low Spark of High Heeled Boys
'shana
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 10:17 PM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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Two winners, of many bonus points!
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 10:33 PM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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Hey Phil, unless those points can help ward off storms give them to Shana. I knew the words but couldn't think of song till she posted the artist.
I had two women, one about 20 and one about 50, tell me that when they awoke this morning to grey skies and gusty winds that they felt feelings of dread and stormy thoughts. Several school kids mentioned they dont like it when it's windy. It will be a while before people around here can put this season to rest.
Me, I was thinking about the last time a storm with the "M" named passed near here. Double bonus points for the one who can name that one
Hurric
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 11:14 PM |
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RE:Tropical Weather Discussion
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The last discussion was at 8:05pm this evening. Is there suppose to be one at 11pm from the NHC?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 07 2004 11:14 PM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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Mitch
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 01:47 AM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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no was saying that it had a pressure in the area of 1007 but doesnt mean there is a TD there. Yes earlier what could of been called a TD went inland with the midlevel low east of there which the recon found with 1007mb pressure but since its not totally at the surface and lacking TS near the center and winds werent at least 30mph then there is no TD now. But by Friday,,who knows
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:32 AM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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I know you want to see it, can't wait...right
AFD from Tally 2:30am EST.....CURRENTLY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GOMEX CONTINUES TO BRING
RAINS TO TX AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE SPREADING HIGH
CIRRUS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST HAS HELD WINDS UP OVER
INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH WINDS 20-25 KTS AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET AT
THE OFFSHORE BUOYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FIRST IN THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA ZONES STARTING SATURDAY. EAST WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT A GOOD CLIP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES. LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE CWA ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN MODERATED WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH MINS IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LAST
INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRACK...THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION AS THERE IS A STRONG DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND
ETA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...AND IT COULD USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS GUSTY
EAST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 07:13 AM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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Yes, It was the reborn Mitch that raced across Florida bringing heavy rains and squally winds.
I hope the GOM system will just stay weak and away from Florida.
Hurric
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 07:41 AM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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This morning is very cool for Central Florida. This is a chilling reminder of the way it felt before Frances, Charley and Jeanne. I know that this storm is no big deal -yet. But neither was Opal and she was forecast to go to Mexico and of course did not. The gulf will spring nasty surprises. I hope this is not one of them.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 09:21 AM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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Brief reply: yes it seems similar here today and there are other "old wives" signs that have preceded each of the other systems by about 48hours...'mares tails' and mackereld cirrus....lets face it we are going to get wet!
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 09:49 AM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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Even hearing rain at night sets me on edge..............add wind and I am going to be lying awake for awhile at night till it stops.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 10:15 AM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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The other day I was dropping one of the kids off at school, waiting in that slow creeping line of cars and I heard a sound that put my teeth on edge and goose to my flesh. I looked for it and pinpointed it as coming from the palms. The wind had gusted and it was that sound of the fronts in the wind, so much like they sounded during Charley, Frances and Jeanne. The ants are rising and moving in to the house again, finding them trailing along the walls in search of places ot hide. All I can say is "oh no".
This is "hurricane shock" a type of post traumatic stress thing, right?????????????
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 10:50 AM |
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Re: Scott, I'm confused...
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Guppie Grouper -
I live in Polk County too and I had a question for you - did you have hail during Jeanne?? A lot of people I know had hail damage to their cars which seems not at all normal for tropical weather. Just wondering if that is what it really was or something else??? I was in Chicago so I missed the whole thing but maybe you saw the hail or know more about it??
katie
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 11:28 AM |
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Not for nothin', but...
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Ma-on is about to whomp the everliving 5#!+ out of Japan...
Teleconnections for the US????
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 11:47 AM |
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Re: Not for nothin', but...
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Whoa, the 4th CAT 5 typhoon in the W. Pacific this year. Only a couple of days ago they were expecting a CAT 2 at most.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 12:07 PM |
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Re: Not for nothin', but...
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Same thing I just said in a phone call---re: teleconnections
sc
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 12:18 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Ok lets wake up on this gulf system...yesterday Scott and I disagreed that the broad llc remained off shore...he argued I was focusing on the midlevel...I still disagree...the visible is what I used yesterday, and today again...the WV shows a midlevel disconncted from the circulation visible on the west side...mostly exposed...it is my opinion then that a low is over water in poor ogrganization...it is not stacked up; may never be stacked up, but then neither was the reformed Ivan which was open on the south and west...All the weather on this is north and east...the winds are higher than expected due to gradient features...it will never(oops should not say that) be hurricane, but should it be classified as tropical?
I think much of the delay is political...think of the implications of a 6th land falling tropical storm in Florida...
Any way I've seen less than this be classified, and it does bear watching for development, and is closer than we think...if as I think a 1007 low is out there it should be.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 12:25 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Doug,
I agree totally. JB feels the same way. NHC may NEVER classify this, but I'm of the mind that it IS Tropical, and it IS already a TD...remember the Haiti system in May...
Well, even if it never gets a name, it is potential trouble, and sooner rather than later...
Until NRL removes it as 95L, I'm still of the mind they may classify it.
Gulf Coasters need to watch this VERY carefully!
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 12:31 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Sounds somewhat like a conversation I just had with someone.... and for the most part I agree with ya"!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 12:52 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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I agree somewhat with JB on this. What worries me is at 500mb where what's left of the troughiness north of the Lesser Antilles gets pulled further westward and merges and develops the storm in the GOM after it crosses Florida/GA somewhere. Where on the east coast that setup is,has my attention. It could be anywhere from Miami to Savannah, then move northward. The Globals have been showing something hanging there (outside of the Gale that will head to Canada) for a few days now, but have the tropical low moving into the midwest, but hanging back a piece of energy. The NOGAPS did this the other day as it showed the low in the Atlantic spitting off another low to its southwest, then eventually getting sucked up into the north Atlantic. A long shot, but something like Joe's Hazel idea could pan out in some manner. We'll wait and watch. In the meantime I'll go secure the tarps on my roof
Cheers!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 01:08 PM |
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More West
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Looking at the link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
Certainly looks like it will be further West than LA.
This morning they had it runnung the coast of LA.
I'm leaving for Texas and won't be back until Monday.
Here's my guess...
A Tropical Storm hit for Tampa through Big Bend come
Sunday/Monday.
Stay Safe
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 01:18 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Over the last 24hours the LLC that went inland near Tampico dissapaited while the midlevel low stayed offshore. As the night progresed into the predawn hours a new LLC developed just south of the midlevel low as pressures in the area were relatively low near 1007mb and strong ts with cloud tops as cold as -60 were over the area. Nevertheless a new LLC has formed (which happens alot with broad area of low pressures) and recon is being sent in again to find out not only if this is a TD but if this is a tropical storm. I'm not sure if they will call it a storm but if they find any pressure lower then what we have now then I feel it should be named. Winds over the gulf in the strong convection show wind gusts up to 48mph and close to tropical storm strength offshore the LA coast. Movement should be off to the NE and then go ENE nearing the coast. I feel the models are too N with the movement of the system but its not out of the question. Westerlys are pretty far south right now and might dig just alittle more. Strength is hard to tell. Models expect this to come inland in 24-36hours. If it stays more ENE then it wont make landfall till Sunday night or Monday morning and that will give it more time to strengthn. Water temps are marginal from N.O. thru Panama City but farther offshore near 83dg. Water temps near Tampa are near 82dg. I expect it can have a chance to get close to Hurricane strength later Saturday night into Sunday morning if it goes more ene although shear will be the main inhibitor. The shear will though be less also if it stays more ene cause it will be further south from the main westerly shear north of the system. Also the system will be moving along with the flow of the upper winds so the shear will be less. Anyways right now its recon and NHC call then we can figure out the exact path and strength. I feel this will be at least 50-60mph at landfall but again it could be up to Hurricane strength by sunday morning as I see it could go further east.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 01:28 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Nice job once again! I don't see really anything to disagree with... I know I will get WET no matter what!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 01:46 PM |
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incipient matthew
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nhc is waiting for their vortex message, probably so they can decide whether matthew will be tropical or subtropical. based on the core temperatures on yesterday's recon i'd say it is a tropical entity ahead of a baroclinic zone, but of course there's no telling what nhc will decide to call it. all of the weather is east of the center.. unless it accelerates some (don't buy that north-movement crap the globals are trying to give it.. gfs is treating it like a part of the upper trough).. think ene like that option i was pondering a couple days ago.. towards the se louisiana to panhandle region. my ideas aren't too far removed from what scott says, though that stuff about a mid-level vortmax being a depression hitting mexico the other day i didn't dig at all. think it will start shearing out as it nears the coast, too much in the way of westerlies.. if it reintensifies north of 30n after passing into the atlantic more than likely it will no longer be tropical.
complex deep layer system is developing in the central atlantic.. modeling starting to look more like a crossover tropical system rather than a gale center.. another iffy scenario with how nhc handles these things.
yet another deep layer low is forecast to dig southward near the azores and long range modeling looks suspicious there as well. low amplitude wave flaring near 50w is entering a favorable zone and may begin to look more ominous, though that will be a slow, low potential feature if anything.
there's an itcz vortmax south of the gulf of tehuantepec that models are developing in the eastpac some.. taking it wnw. i don't buy that quick movement, think it may be festering more and moving nnw. wait/see, but it gives me some ideas.
soi solidly negative, big typhoon heading for the south coast of honshu in japan... something could well pop in the deep tropics in the next few days. with the current longwave positions the sw caribbean and near the antilles look like the areas to watch... going into next week. gfs keeps speeding up that sharp amplification into the eastern u.s. late next week.. if something is in the western caribbean early next week then florida will have some worries.
HF 1745z08october
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 01:59 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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The NHC is waiting on recon info to determine if this is a TD. It sure looks like one to me. There is really no reason to rush classification of this system. It is weak and the NHC does not want to create a frenzy if it is not necessary. I concur with that discretion. With that said, this system is likely to become Matthew shortly. It has enough tropical characteristics to classify it as such. The NHC will not refrain from classifying this system if the recon reports a closed surface low and appropriate wind speeds.
This system is typical of many October tropical cyclones that interact with mid latitude troughs. It will be lop-sided, and it will struggle with vertical stacking, but it will have a good chance of becoming a 65-70mph TS, like Josephine in 1996. It will maintain enough tropical characteristics through landfall, at which time it will be completing its conversion to a baroclinic low.
Another quick point. We always need to carefully watch out for re-formations of the LLC in these systems. Sometimes, a new LLC will form closer to the MLC and beneath deeper convection, leading to bursts of intensification, and slight track changes. TS Gordon of 2000 reminds me of this.
God Bless,
Ronn
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 02:03 PM |
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Re: incipient matthew
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Well hank Tampico radar and with surface reports and offshore buoys showed the llc yesterday moving inland and did go inland. Cant argue with surface reports. Now was it a TD? No, thats up to the NHC but everything shows it was a llc.Cant argue with the truth.
maybe it was some kind of meso-vortex in the larger area of low pressure, pinwheeling around the broad circulation. remember even now there's still a strung-trough associated with the system. no, there wasn't a t.d. crossing the mexican coast yesterday... but it was a worthwhile thing to notice. -HF
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 02:38 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Think Earl, 1995.....
sc
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 02:40 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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I think you mean ERIN...
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:09 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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I believe your are referring to Earl in 1998 which was a very asymmetric hurricane. I doubt that our current system will reach hurricane status. Earl was an early September storm and had less westerlies to contend with.
Ronn
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:15 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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No Earl...had wrong year./...96 wasn't it?
sc
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:20 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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JOsephine, 1996
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:18 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Duh, yep 1998---one of those active years...oh year, that could be any since 95......
sc
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:23 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Recon is closing off....had 070, then 090, then 252 degreee winds as it circles around the center...pressure on latest, to south of center was 1005 mb, winds 38 kts
sc
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:29 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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NRL...14L?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:28 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Hmmmm...not looking as good on WV loop and Dvorak's "only" 1.5/1.5.
Interesting what recon found...
If you read JBs afternoon missive he is absolutely LIVID with NHC right now...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:30 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Quote:
NRL...14L?
Sumbeatch...looks like TD 14 @ 5:00.
Buckle up...
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:43 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Where can you get JB's column?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:53 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Quote:
Where can you get JB's column?
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/pro_benefits.asp
You can try it free for 30 days (you need a credit card), but it's been worth every penny...it's about $.50/day ($14.95/mo). If you do sign up, make sure you get accuwx PRO, not Premium; no JB on premium
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 03:53 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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Thanks.
You're welcome. I just sent you a PM with today's JB rants.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 04:17 PM |
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Re: lets wake up
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35 kts ..may be Matthew...1004....
sc
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 04:28 PM |
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Maybe Matthew...
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Sure, why bother to classify it as a TD when it was YESTERDAY...just go straight to Matthew...I'm sure all Gulf Coasters are glad for the delay...people without rooves (or worse) from Ivan don't need the head's up or anything.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 04:32 PM |
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Re: Maybe Matthew...
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Storm INVEST: Observed By AF #966
Storm #DD in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 41KT (47.2mph 75.9km/h) In E Quadrant At 1900Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 36.9KT (42.4mph 68.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT. MAX FL TEMP 27 DEG C 160/32 NM FROM FL CENTER.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, October 08, 2004 3:19:00 PM (Fri, 8 Oct 2004 19:19:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 24° 21' N 94° 04' W (24.4°N 94.1°W)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35KT (40.25MPH 64.8km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 015nm (17.25miles) From Center At Bearing 105°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 038KT (43.7mph 70.4km/h) From 130°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 026nm (29.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 145°
Minimum pressure: 1004mb (29.65in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 04:38 PM |
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Re: Maybe Matthew...
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Whats a weekend in Florida without storm watching?
Not sure what to make of this one. Truthfully, I have not been watching really close. It has been a "don't look. Maybe it will go away" type of deal. Hoping he is just a rain maker and nothing more.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 04:54 PM |
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Matthew @ 5:00
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Yep...straight to Matthew...
I know Ed doesn't like NHC bashing, but THEY TOTALLY DROPPED THE BALL ON THIS ONE!
This thing was a TD yesterday...why they had to futz around with whether it will be subtropical, baroclinic yada yada yada. Now we have a friggin' Tropical Storm in the GOM...and they tell us on a Friday Afternoon at 5:00 on a Holiday Weekend! Thanks...
At least anyone on these boards had warning.
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 04:55 PM |
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Re: Matthew @ 5:00
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I have been trying to tell the folks around my area, but they just think I'm a weather freak. I have been watching this thing for over a week now, telling my husband just to watch and see.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 05:00 PM |
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Re: Matthew @ 5:00
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MIKE HAS PUT UP A NEW THREAD
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 08 2004 05:05 PM |
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Matthew Advisory #1
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Quote:
Tropical Storm MATTHEW
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Probabilities Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT34 KNHC 082045
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004
...THIRTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...
INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
hmmmm.......that movement is kind of alarming for Florida. I had thought the storm would be moving more NNE at this point, with a NE turn later on. If the present motion continues for some time, this could get very ugly for Central Florida once again. Even a big bend landfall would bring us on the right side of the circulation....with the resulting nastiest weather. A definite major flood threat is again in the making.
--Lou