Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Oct 10 2004 11:06 AM
Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

Sunday 5PM Update:
STS Nicole has just about been drifting in place for the past six hours - currently about 100 miles west of Bermuda. A northward track is still anticipated. At 5PM Bermuda reported winds out of the south southeast at 45mph gusting to 55mph, i.e., tropical storm force. Which makes me wonder about the usefulness of the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. Note that Bermuda is also under a Gale Warning. At 5PM NHC estimates central pressure at 1000mb and Bermuda reports central pressure at 1001mb.
Added: At 5:22PM pressure at Hamilton is down to 1000mb.
ED

Original Post:
STS Nicole, the fourteenth named storm of the season, has developed from an upper level cold core system, and is located about 80 miles west of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are about 45mph and some intensification is expected as the storm moves north toward Nova Scotia. Bermuda is currently under a gale warning and a Tropical Storm Watch.

Matthew is now a Tropical Depression over southeast Louisiana (about 40 miles west of New Orleans) and the NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. TD Matthew should continue to move north over the next 48 hours and eventually dissipate. All Tropical Storm Warnings associated with Matthew have been discontinued.

Another wave in the far eastern Atlantic may have some potential for development in a few days, however, shear is on the increase in the Atlantic Basin.
ED

Storm Related Links
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Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 10 2004 01:02 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

Nicole looks like it is moving more west than north right now, and Matthew looks like an extratropical system now

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 10 2004 03:19 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

If you look at the bermuda radar, your can clearly see the rainbands pretty heavy rain considering not much convection is going on. It should start to make a trasition to tropical, then as the water become increasing cooler it will become extratropical gale. A recent quickstat pass indicated the strongest winds were confined to the east of the center at roughly 48 mph. She seems very organized and the upper-level trough that is supporting her is deepening, maybe we can squeeze another sub-tropical storm out of this. The NAO is going positive should bring about some ridging in the eastern atlantic causing the strong cold front (the one entering the Washington area) to asborb the 'remnants of Matt'. This depression in the height field, is indicated to become quite strong by some of the well know models after interacting with the trough supporting Nicole. The season is still rambling on, when will this end.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 10 2004 04:51 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

Just another update, the models are picking up on some explosive deepening that Nicole (aka the Perfect Storms) will do as it does all of it's trasitioning. Let me explain, the feature wants to become warm-core because of frictional and compressional heating, the feature then cannot sustain itself and the upper cold core system destroys the low level warm core feature and makes the transition to extra-tropical. Then the cold-core system builds around the warm-core center because the energy has no where to go and the storm can "bomb." An example would be Hurricane Grace, I'm currently doing some research on it, I'll post some of the links.

Here's a good page:
http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1122/

Here's another good page:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s451.htm


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 10 2004 05:17 PM
More Records For 2004 Hurricane Season

Here's a couple more records that this year's hurricane season can add to its tally:

1) Matthew making landfall on the Louisiana coast brings the USA total to 9 landfalling systems this year. 1985 and 2002 each had 8 systems make landfall.

2) Charley, Ivan and Jeanne were all major hurricane (cat 3 and above) landfalls in the USA. That is also a record. Going back to 1888, 6 previous years each had two major hurricane landfalls, but no year has ever had 3 strike the USA in the same season.

--Lou


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 10 2004 05:25 PM
Re: More Records For 2004 Hurricane Season

I got a feeling Nicole is going to break some records too, we'll see. Already starting to see some clouds associated with it or the entity ahead of it, they are stratus, realtively low and quite dark, also some NW wind of about 15 mph. Nothing amazing, but something smells and looks fishy.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 10 2004 05:40 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

"Note that Bermuda is also under a Gale Warning. At 5PM NHC estimates central pressure at 1002mb. At 5PM, Bermuda reports central pressure at 1001mb (hmmm)."

That was the same thing I was thinking. The tropical storm force winds extend 200 miles out from the center, that's huge. Also Bermuda is on the east side of the storm and may not be experincing the full brunt of the storm as they are close to the center and the center doesn't get the highest winds. Is the NHC trying to hide something from us?


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 10 2004 06:02 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

Quote:

Is the NHC trying to hide something from us?




OK call me a confused newbie but what do you think they are hiding?

Is Nicole a hurricane? Cause I'm just plain

'shana


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Oct 10 2004 06:00 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

NHC has corrected the central pressure to 1000mb in their text bulletins. I think that it was posted in error on the NHC website (or it was an oversite). It does raise an interesting question though regarding classifications of storms versus watches and warnings for them. Gale and Storm Warnings are associated with extratropical systems. Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches and Warnings are associated with tropical cyclones. With Nicole, you have both a Gale Warning (extratropical) and a Tropical Storm Watch (tropical) issued for Bermuda. Since sustained Tropical Storm force winds have already been reported on Bermuda, the value of the TS Watch mystifies me. I doubt that the folks on Bermuda really care if you define their current winds as extratropical or tropical - I don't think that the precautions they take are any different. Since we now name subtropical cyclones, I would suggest that, in order to avoid public confusion, the tropical set of advisories/warnings should be applied for subtropical systems. With understanding for the meteorological differences, should Bermuda now be under a Tropical Storm Watch or a Subtropical Storm Warning? I'll opt for the latter.
Cheers,
ED


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 10 2004 06:06 PM
Re: More Records For 2004 Hurricane Season

What about the whole 'rements of Ivan' situation? An asterisk in the footnotes of hurricane history?

Ivan tracks I've seen make it look like Ivan split up in the GOM ... not that he did a loop de loop, split up in the Atlantic and came back across FL, GOM and TX as remnants of the hurricane formerly known as Ivan...


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 10 2004 06:06 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

Quote:

Since we now name subtropical cyclones, I would suggest that, in order to avoid public confusion, the tropical set of advisories/warnings should be applied for subtropical systems.




You may move this to where the original question was asked I don't know how to do so with the quote), but this comment is what I was getting at. "Since now we name subtropical cyclones".... when did we start naming these? This could be why I have never noticed it before.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 10 2004 06:19 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

To tell you the turth, I feel that should just put out one warning, don't have an expiration time and just make one warning. A good example of this would be when the first frost was coming, our area was under a Frost Watch, and then they put out a Freeze warning. They said they put out the warning for agricultral purposes, in case they don't know Nassu county and Suffolk County have no almost zero farms, we don't live in the corn belt...Don't get me wrong I look up to the NHC and all those other forecasted agenices but when make warnings for a increase of 3 mph in wind and a temp drop of about 3 degrees it annoys me. It seems that I have got horribly off the topic, you can move this post if you want.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Oct 10 2004 06:26 PM
Re: Subtropical Systems

Actually, Subtropical systems were defined quite some time ago. For starters, here is a useful link:

UNISYS Storm Archive

Check out 1969 and 1972 (and sporadic years after that).
Cheers,
ED


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 10 2004 06:36 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

No Nicole isn't a hurricane, but she is a sub-tropical storm. The difference is in the way the storm carries itself, but for all intensive purposes it is just as dangerous as an hurricane. Sub-tropical storms produce dangerous sea's, due to the less organization of the wind field and probably because the winds are stronger far away from the center, take this quote "Confused winds and following sea's." The Halloween storm of 1991 (aka the Perfect Storm) produced 100 ft rouge wave as indicated by a buoy reading, not sure where though...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Oct 10 2004 06:46 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

Maybe in 20 years from now. The system that hit Hati, this May "could" be tropical storm 1# on that map.

ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 10 2004 06:46 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda

Thank you. I will figure it all out eventually with lots of help from y'all.

100 foot waves? :eek:

I thought the 10 foot waves we had on our cruise a few years back were exciting enough thankyouverymuch!

'shana


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 10 2004 10:26 PM
Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm

11pm Advisory now has Nicole classified as a Tropical Storm.

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 10 2004 10:39 PM
Re: Interesting Read

Talk about a central florida bullseye - wow.. graphic showing all Cat 3 storms that landed in Florida and their track across the state over the last 100+ years..

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/orl-asecpath101004,1,2101781.graphic?coll=orl-home-headlines

(be sure to copy the whole URL - the link is broke above because of the comma -- have to subscribe but it is free)


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 10 2004 10:48 PM
Re: Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm

Excerpts from the 11pm Discussion.
WTNT45 KNHC 110239
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004
* WHILE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY... NICOLE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A RECENT PRESSURE REPORT OF 995 MB FROM BERMUDA. AS IS THE CASE WITH SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH NICOLE IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER....

And the same Advisory 9 minutes later.
WTNT45 KNHC 110248
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

*WHILE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...NICOLE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A RECENT PRESSURE REPORT OF 995 MB FROM BERMUDA. AS IS THE CASE WITH SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH NICOLE IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER....

Translation-Nicole is still a SubTropical Storm.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Oct 10 2004 10:55 PM
Re: Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm

The NHC made an error on all of the advisories - Nicole is still a subtropical storm (notice the comments in the Discussion).
The 11pm bulletins are being reissued.
ED


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 10 2004 11:05 PM
Re: Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm

Another record was (at least the last 40 or 50 years) was the 3 successive Gulf seasons with 5 or more named storms - Charley, Frances, Ivan, Ivan II, Gaston, Matthew. I think Joe B. has hit it with the water temperature profiles vs. close in landfalling seasons. Clearly warmer water off the Mid Atlantic Coast and cooler water off the SA coast makes a world of difference.

Steve


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 10 2004 11:20 PM
Nicole thoughts

Note the last paragraph of the 11pm discussion & the statement about potential future development. This is what is called warm-core seclusion development, where an extratropical system acquires a warm-core by some means -- usually as the lower-level core becomes isolated (or, as in the title, secluded) from the outer, colder environment -- and usually results in explosive development.

The GFDL model in the cyclone phase space captures the storm very well currently and hints at this development, bringing the storm to a pressure below 960mb at it approaches Canada in a few days. For now, however, it shows a relatively weak, relatively shallow warm core -- i.e. weak warm core at low levels, cold(er) core at upper levels -- and this is a favorable scenario for such development as hinted by the NHC with the right forcing, as is expected down the line.

The global models have been predicting a significant system to move into the eastern U.S. and offshore later this week, providing the aforementioned forcing. Just this system alone -- perhaps the first significant front of the season -- would be noteworthy enough, but things could get really, really interesting off-shore later this week if things play out just right. I don't expect a nor'easter -- too far off-shore, among other things -- but some nice extratropical/quasi-subtropical development isn't out of the question by any means.

With the tropics essentially quiet otherwise, it's one to watch down the line.

Had the chance to drive through Matthew twice, once Friday and once today, going between here and Louisiana (even had the chance to meet another member of the board in person!). Driving in the rain is no fun, but that's about all it was -- a rain event. Parts of Louisiana really needed the rain, however, so it's not all bad -- just not all of it at once would've been better. It hardly had the look of a tropical system much of its life, taking on extratropical/subtropical features from its inception, but it'll go down in the books as the 13th storm of the year.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Oct 10 2004 11:28 PM
Re: Nicole thoughts

Do you think this new system could be namd Otto??? Hurricane Otto....

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 11 2004 12:13 AM
Re: Nicole thoughts

Nah, I highly doubt it'll be tropical at all. Just something interesting to watch weather-wise.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Oct 11 2004 03:03 AM
Re: Nicole thoughts

The computer models are showing this getting very strong...The Gfdl now shows it at 958 millibars. The Ukmet tropical model shows this getting very strong as a tropical system before it turns extratropical. Also the Cmc shows it swinging around to the southwest afterwards. Could this be the second perfect storms? Remember The superstorm of 1993 had a pressure of 953 millibars.

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 11 2004 05:02 AM
Large waves from Karl

This *may* be a bit off topic, if so feel free to move it - however here are a couple photos taken from the cruise ship Rotterdam during hurricane Karl. I've also included a video taken from the Queen Mary 2 during an unidentified storm.

Video found here

Most pics found at: this site



Needs moving, but it covers such a wide area of information.


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 11 2004 06:59 AM
Hurricane Season 2004 Website

Good Morning,
If I have posted this in the wrong forum, I apologise. A week or so ago, I posted that I was working on a website containing a pictorial history of the 4 hurricanes that struck Florida this year. I have now completed the task and invite everyone to check it out:
Hurricane Season 2004
Most of the pictures (with the exception of Ivan) were taken by myself as the storms crossed over Central Florida. I have included a media photos section for each storm to show the damages beyond my narrow local view. Since Ivan did not directly affect Central Florida, I had to rely on using online media resources for pictures of that storm.
The purpose in creating the site was for a personal "scrapbook" of Hurricane Season 2004. I just wanted to share with fellow weather enthusiasts who I thought might enjoy the images.

Take care,
--Lou


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 11 2004 10:42 AM
Re: Nicole thoughts

Glad to see other people have the same ideas as me Clark, especially you being an metorologist. Anyway, I wouldn't be comparing the 1993 storm of the century with Nicole, one is a maritime system and the other is an surface-cyclone, two different things. With the trough deepening and the enviorment becoming increasing favorable, I wouldn't be surprised to see a storm in the 970's. The main wind will not be from the system per se but from the pressure gradient between the strong canadian high and Nicole, could easily see a gust up to 80 in Maine, here in Long Island winds are about 25 mph, but then again it's always windy here. It seems almost everywhere on the east coast is being effecting by these tropical cyclones.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Oct 11 2004 12:07 PM
Re: Hurricane Season 2004 Website

GREAT JOB!

Thanks for all the hard work that went into your production. It's a 'keeper'.

sc


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 11 2004 01:16 PM
Re: Nicole thoughts

There's not a difference between a maritime cyclone and a surface cyclone. Maritime just refers to something over water; it makes no distinction between the type of storm. Surface versus upper level cyclone is the distinction and, in both cases, the "perfect" storm and the possible scenario to unfold here have support at all levels.

The scenario isn't that much unlike the "perfect" storm, but not what it has been hyped up to be in the 10-15 years after the fact. Cold-core system merges with a tropical/subtropical cyclone, acquiring a lower-level warm core while maintaining the cold core aloft and allowing for rapid deepening as somewhat of a hybrid extratropical system. It'd be foolish to say that such a scenario will happen, but it is within the realm of possibility. It just won't ever get the headlines the other one did.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 11 2004 01:26 PM
Re: Nicole thoughts

I agree, unless there is a shipping interest out there who knows. The swells are pretty big today, just was at the beach taking my dog for a walk, windy cold and cloudy. I meant that they were both surface cyclones, I just thought that if something was over water it would have different characteristics then a surface cyclone over land, das all tm HF

das all...Hey, that's a [tm HF]!


DroopGB31
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 11 2004 03:34 PM
Re: Nicole thoughts

Well today was my first day back in school here in Gulf Breeze, exactly one month ago I was cutting plywood and packing my bags gettin ready to leave. Even now, people who live on P-Cola Beach still arent allowed to go back to their houses. Im not sure why....I'd be ticked if I wasnt allowed to go to my house, specially after a whole month. I talked to a guy who went out there to help clean up and he said on some houses the sand is up to the second story!! Thats 10 feet of sand! WOW Anyways, Ya'll have a good one.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 11 2004 03:58 PM
Overview of Current Weather

Just to give an update for those around: The models are picking up on this warm-core center inscribed in an cold-core system, they have some type of an eye forming probably not closed but needless to say any storm that develops a eye is a dangerous one. Also the trough harbouring Nicole is entraining the two entities together, that should be interesting; which one asborbs each other. Matt has split into two, one part traveling westward into the South Carolina coast area, the other part is getting pulled away by the backing ULL, which will bring record heat to the California coast and some thunderstorms in places that don't normally get thunderstorms. Anyway, the system off the southeast coast is anticapted to develop a LLC and ride the east coast up as a modest gale, nothing too crazy. A very strong trough is forecasted to be sitting in the eastern mid west by the 14, which might leave me to believe the developing gale might become stronger then excepted, that's in the realm of possibility. The next area of some tropical development should be confined to the SW carribbean but that's next week. That's about it folks for now, more later.

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Oct 11 2004 04:54 PM
Back after a nice respite (for me)

Hey, all...

Looks like Matthew and Nicole pumped up the #s, but didn't have much other effect. We now stand at 14/8/6; I predicted 14/8/3...a busted forecast for sure, but if we just end the season now, I will call it even...NOT.

Too many comments I just read thru to respond other than a couple which stood out...Steve...sorry Matt didn't quite give you a fun ride, but in light of what has already happened, let's call it a draw. Lou...great work on the 2004 season! Ed...I'm sorry, I thought for a minute you might have been, well, dissing may be too strong, but...questioning the NHC? Who else, well thanks to co-mods Danny & Coop for keeping the weekend traffic flowing. And everyone else too...

With that being said, don't look for Nicole to pull a "perfect storm," but don't be surprised if she does a "loop-de-loop" and start tracking back north west towards Halifax...they took a straight on CAT I with Juan last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if they don't eventually see similar situations with Nicole...

As far as Matthew; he's not quite done yet, but he's solely a rainmaker . A'ight [another tm HF], das all fo now.

Hope everyone had a great weekend and, at least like me, got Colombus day off!

Cheers,

LI Phil


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 11 2004 04:57 PM
Re: Back after a nice respite (for me)

Hello all, I read an interesting article in the Tampa Tribune and wondered your thoughts on the whole deal. (re: hurricane season)

http://news.tbo.com/news/MGBW71A160E.html

Thanks!

Katie


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 11 2004 05:10 PM
Re: Back after a nice respite (for me)

My numbers are calling for one more storm to put the total at 15/9/6. With that ridge backing out and the trough propogating southward, that tells you to look for something in the Carribbean. I'm pretty sure it won't become a hurricane, probably get sheared by some type of upper-level feature...though I have been proven wrong this season.
Good to see your're back LI phil, I never knew that there was farms on LI...just kidding Did you see the surf?
Hasta Luego


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Oct 11 2004 05:23 PM
Re: Back after a nice respite (for me)

Keith,

Hasta manyana, no doubt.

Actually, with regard to the surf, the High pressure system parked up north, combined with the northerly component that was once matthew, PLUS the pseudo-"Perfect Strom" setting up over the open atlantic have led to (as I'm sure you're aware) a very strong pressure gradient; winds out of the north gusting to at least 45-50mph...there where white caps in Gardiners bay, but the ocean was a pancake...and look for the rare, but not-totally-unknown, "back door cold front". Basically the OPPOSITE of our classical nor'easter, to continue to take shape over the next 24-48...


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 11 2004 06:29 PM
Re: Back after a nice respite (for me)

(off-topic post)

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 11 2004 06:42 PM
New Invest

if you haven't noticed, they have a new invest at the NRL

-Mark
(Falcons.... lose *cry* 4 - 1)


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 11 2004 07:34 PM
Re: Back after a nice respite (for me)

Well, I saw that article some place else as well and I personally believe that it is a summary of what the scientists currently believe about weather cycles. But underlying the article is the attempt at putting the word out that the tourist industry should not feel so threatened by Florida's hurricane experience this year. Little do they know that even when a hurricane is coming you can not get the tourists to evacuate. They become fascinated by the storms and although they have a home to go to that is not in danger, they stay to watch the storms. So it is highly unlikely that our tourist seasons of the future will be harmed. They may have to work like the devil to get the hotels back up and running by next year though. This year is probably a wash at some of the beach side condos. But, by and large, most everyone is resilient and will survive this.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 11 2004 07:44 PM
Re: New Invest

Looks like there's a LLC if I'm not mistaken, I guess they feel it's going to move into a more favorable enviorment as that strong negatively tilted trough comes down. Imagine two sub-tropical storms in a row, that's a rarity.

Edit: Yep the NHC confirmed it, put it on their tropical outlook. Though it is pretty hard to tell when you don't have a visible satellite imagery available but for those who want to learn. There seems to be sufficent low level clouds from the last imagery I saw and higher clouds are obscuring the low level clouds, the eastern portion seems of the storm seems more like an ULL because the convection seems enhanced and the IR clouds are moving in unison with the visible clouds. I would wait just a bit longer to classify it if I were them, maybe once it accquired some subtropical characteristics.


HumanCookie
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 11 2004 08:37 PM
Re: New Invest

That Non-tropical low was called by NHC yesterday as "Gale Center" indicating it has a sustained winds of tropical storm force.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON 11 OCT 2004


SUBTROPICAL ATLC...
WNW MID/UPPER FLOW COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM 30N80W TO 29N75W CONTINUING ENE
INTO BERMUDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 28N58W WITH TROUGH CONTINUING SSW INTO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. FEATURE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 48W-53W. UPPER RIDE AXIS IS ALONG 50W WITH PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT DUE TO CIRRUS BLOWUP FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS. A
LARGE POWERFUL DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS NEAR 32N32W MOVING SSW INTO
THE AREA. THE LOW NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A TRANSITION INTO A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH IT MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY WARM... AND WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE...WATER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION NOW FORMING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 31N25W SW
TO 25N32W THEN ENE TO 26N44W. LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-28W WITH
GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ONLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 28N-36W.


Ricreig
(User)
Tue Oct 12 2004 02:17 PM
Re: New Invest

Thankfully, this system even if it becomes a TS or more, will likely NOT affect the US mainiland. There is plenty of sheer and the remains of several cold fronts that should provide weakness in the ridges to the north that *should* allow this system to migrate west, then north well before causing the US problems. This could be considered negative wishcasting, but seems reasonable given the current and forecast weather patterns.

The ones I worry most about is the stalled, tail-ends of fronts pushing into the Western Gulf of Mexico and developing into 'home-brew' tropical cyclones ala Matthew, but having real possibilities of becoming full fledged TS or Hurricanes. These storms tend to move E-NE and often affect the Eastern Gulf from New Orleans around the big bend to S. Florida. With luck, all of the US is out of the tropical storm business for the year, but as they say, "it ain't over till the Fat Lady sings"...which isn't likely till November-ish.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Oct 12 2004 04:48 PM
Current Weather Overview 10/12

Nothing really of major importance to talk about now, except the extratropical storm that was once Nicole, looks very impressive with the banding features and the nimbostratus clouds popping up behind it. This storm will continue to batter the Nova Scotia area for about one more day, as the blocking is really pumping up, then it will lift up out of there as it gets picked up by some trough. Very cold air going to come in the northern plains by Novemember 9. Looks like Novemember will be a very rough month with all this surface cyclone development anticapted. Check out the farmer's almanac for the New England area, right on target with the models, creepy. Some possible development in GOM Carribbean area but not anything significant for now. For now fogetabout the tropics, but keep checking back...

Edit: Whoops, I meant Nimbostratus not altocumculus. The clouds are in nice streets indicated some strong ULW.


Redbird
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Oct 12 2004 05:42 PM
Re: Back after a nice respite (for me)

(off-topic post)

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Tue Oct 12 2004 05:39 PM
Thoughts from Thomas

Looking at the latest VIS, IR, WV satellite loops and coastal observations ex T.S. Nicole continues to lash the Canadian Maritimes with near hurricane force wind gusts. A couple of days ago she merged with an extratropical surface low and became a hybrid much like the perfect storm we know of from recent history. What is interesting is how she continues to show a tropical'ish eyewall type structure.

Looking back southward into the Gulf Of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea we have a stationary frontal system. Old fronts in this region in October often times simmer for days, then come right back at us with tropical cyclones. So much like T.S. Matthew the whole of the Gulf Coast will have to keep an eye peeled for a "possible" future T.C. Otto during the next seven days.

Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Oct 13 2004 07:55 AM
Re: Thoughts from Thomas

I don't know if any models are showing anything in the Carribean next week but a strong front for this time of year will be heading down to S. Florida. When it stalls will have to see its future.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc....Fort_Lauderdale


Storm Cooper
(User)
Wed Oct 13 2004 10:40 AM
Re: Thoughts from Thomas

New thread & better weather...head over


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