MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Dec 31 2004 09:10 PM |
Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Welcome to the Central Florida Hurricane Center 2005, the site has had a facelift for this year, but not all features of the new site are active yet.
2004 was an amazing tracking year, and also an unforgettable year for Florida, with 4 storms affecting it, two crossing nearly the same point on landfall. This past sunday, a huge earthquake and Tsunami hit the Indian Ocean making even the ocean front damage here seem pale in comparison. Our hopes and prayers to all survivors there, and to those who lost friends and loved ones.
I'm hoping 2005 will be an average year or less, no landfalls if I can help it. But we'll be ready in case the trend that Dr. William Gray refers to, the trend of more landfalling systems, does not occur. Florida could do without another storm for a good long while.
Thanks all, and thank Christine Hahn for helping me put the new layout together.
There will be more to come this year!
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
SST Forecast
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Dec 31 2004 10:19 PM |
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Wow! "The season from hell", tm LIPhil , is officially over.
Mike C and Christine, this is an awesome layout. I'll have to check out the rest of the site!
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Dec 31 2004 11:18 PM |
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
This is the most cool look.... it is a "keeper" my peeps
|
Christine H
|
| (Webgirl) |
| Sat Jan 01 2005 01:00 AM |
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Thanks everybody! I'm glad you all like it so far.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jan 01 2005 02:16 AM |
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Happy New Years to all my fav weather freaks!! From our house to yours, may the year to come be bright, and may all the canes stay off shore for the year to come. I can say with no doubt in my mind you guys helped this woman keep her sanity during the "Season From Hell" tmLilPhil.
I LOVE the new face lift, it rocks totally!!!
Dawn
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jan 01 2005 12:14 PM |
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
...even better. the new layout is mighty nice.
on this first day of 2005, it's mild in the eastern u.s., with a deep layer hybrid low forming east and southeast of bermuda. not much of a development threat in january, of course.
again, this is an attractive upgrade to the site layout.
HF 1706z01january
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jan 01 2005 12:17 PM |
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Happy New Year To All! Mike I love the new layout. I've already broken two resolutions
but what the hel...heck. Ten Years! Mike & John, you guys ROCK!!! Let's not break ANY weather records this year, OK, only member and viewership records!
Cheers everybody! Here's to 2005!
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jan 01 2005 12:28 PM |
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
I know it's already been said, but the new layout is really cool!
Happy New Year to you all!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jan 01 2005 12:56 PM |
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
It is pretty cool! Yeah, very warm today but with this boundary setting up, somebody is going to get 2 inches of ice.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jan 02 2005 06:42 AM |
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Love the face lift. I thought I was on a different site at first...:) Anyhow, all this talk about tidal waves, does anyone here remember the rogue wave that hit Daytona Beach, July 3, 1992? Just out of curiosity, I have wanted to do some reading on this strange event and have not found a lot of info on the internet. Locals who lived here say they remember but haven't said that anyone knows what originally caused this large wave? If you have any info, please send it my way. Happy New Year!!!
MaryAnn
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jan 02 2005 12:23 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
I beileve the waves form in two regions of the earth, where the global currents meet and they are totally random. But other then that, I know nothing more.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jan 02 2005 01:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
This page has quite a bit of information:
Daytona Rogue Wave
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Sun Jan 02 2005 04:48 PM |
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Nice new look. Crisp and clean!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jan 02 2005 06:25 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Thanks. BTW, that's a nice swirl out there in the central Atlantic.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Jan 02 2005 09:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Quote:
Nice new look. Crisp and clean!
Jonathon...how the f--- did you update my avatar from afar????
I love it! Happy new year big guy!
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Jan 02 2005 10:31 PM |
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Hey Cuz... there are children here... let's watch the wording
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jan 03 2005 06:33 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Hmmmm. adds more to the mystery. Thanks for the link. Meteorite????/
Quote:
This page has quite a bit of information:
Daytona Rogue Wave
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jan 03 2005 02:38 PM |
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
I'm 14 turning 15....not a child.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Jan 03 2005 10:03 PM |
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
That was a "joking reply" to LI Phil.... not for any one person otherwise... sorry for any other take on that.
Coop
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Jan 03 2005 10:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
careful then coop, don't want to offend the adolescents. they're very sensitive people, after all.
nah, the bad language is out of context and all, but phil's just being an artist in his own... medium. with me it's the obligatory redneck lingo, same difference (more family friendly though). good thing we don't have a storm or anything, else someone responsible like the good mr. dunham would surgically remove all this idle january banter.
speakinowhich, isn't it our long island mod's birthday? yup, for a while more. happy frickin' birthday, phil.
HF 0349z04january
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Jan 04 2005 11:12 AM |
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Quote:Yes....In fact, had this been a bit larger, aka 65 million years ago, we may have witnessed a modern version of mass extinction....of US.
This page has quite a bit of information:
Daytona Rogue Wave
Happy New Year to all of my friends here on the CFHC site. May we have an 'interesting' year, not another 'terrifying' year like the last one. Tracking is fun! Evacuation and fleeing is not! Here's to tracking.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jan 04 2005 06:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
If you want something to track you might want to take a gander at the South Pacific. Looks like something is forming there. Hopefully it won't have too many bad effects.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jan 04 2005 09:02 PM |
|
|
Presistant area of sheared convection 27N 48W
|
I'm sure most poeple are still peeking from time to time... but if the shear relaxes I wonder if it'd have a chance to turn into something
though the discussion says it's cold core... (not suprising)
and I think the odds are... slim to none
(and the SST's are about 23 Centigrade)
oh well. just something to look at and go, nope ain't gonna happen
-Mark (Falcons in the playoffs... how'd that happen?)
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jan 07 2005 04:16 PM |
|
|
Another link to add to our collections
|
Hey Everyone
Haven't posted in a while, but hope everyones new year is off to a good start. I thought i'd drop in a post containing a new link for us all to use during the 2005 Season with reference to MJO.
MJO Analysis
Also whilst browsing I came upon a DVD called "The Hurricanes of 2004" from Hurricane Track. Link and Preview Here
If anyone knows of any other DVD's or books from Discovery, National Geographic or TLC regarding the 2004 Season, please let me know. Good job admin team on the new design.
Thats all for now, be back when I find more interesting links.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jan 10 2005 06:06 PM |
Re: Another link to add to our collections
|
I'm hoping 2005 will be an average year or less, no landfalls if I can help it. But we'll be ready in case the trend that Dr. William Gray refers to, the trend of more landfalling systems, does not occur. Florida could do without another storm for a good long while.
To be perfectly honest, I want to get hit. As selfish as this sounds, nothing gives me more excitment than a powerfull storm to track, prepare for, and then survive. I do, however, have a problem with the death that these storms inevitably cause. My conflicting feelings on this trouble me greatly.
Does anyone deal with this as well?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jan 10 2005 09:12 PM |
|
Re: Another link to add to our collections
|
Quote:
To be perfectly honest, I want to get hit. As selfish as this sounds, nothing gives me more excitment than a powerfull storm to track, prepare for, and then survive. I do, however, have a problem with the death that these storms inevitably cause. My conflicting feelings on this trouble me greatly.
Does anyone deal with this as well?
Uh oh. I think you just stepped in something...
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Jan 10 2005 10:32 PM |
|
Re: Another link to add to our collections
|
I have tossed and turned on a reply or just pulling that one off... I will let it stay for now but another may think different. Some ideas and feelings, however (my opinion), should be kept to yourself. The past events were major and not what the country ever saw coming.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jan 11 2005 05:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Another link to add to our collections
|
Quote:
I have tossed and turned on a reply or just pulling that one off... I will let it stay for now but another may think different. Some ideas and feelings, however (my opinion), should be kept to yourself. The past events were major and not what the country ever saw coming.
Hey Coop, I couldn't have said it better. I got the twitch in my finger after the first sentence. Guess I've been hanging around you guys too long.
For the Record. A lot of people lost loved ones, homes, jobs and suffered a tremendous amount of mental and physical stress. I am sure that ALL of them could care less to ever hear another Watch or Warning of ANY TYPE. Posts like that generally don't survive more than 10 minutes. ( I'll be surprised to see it last a week! )
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jan 11 2005 10:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Another link to add to our collections
|
Quote:Quote:
I have tossed and turned on a reply or just pulling that one off... I will let it stay for now but another may think different. Some ideas and feelings, however (my opinion), should be kept to yourself. The past events were major and not what the country ever saw coming.
Hey Coop, I couldn't have said it better. I got the twitch in my finger after the first sentence. Guess I've been hanging around you guys too long.
For the Record. A lot of people lost loved ones, homes, jobs and suffered a tremendous amount of mental and physical stress. I am sure that ALL of them could care less to ever hear another Watch or Warning of ANY TYPE. Posts like that generally don't survive more than 10 minutes. ( I'll be surprised to see it last a week! )
Another mod in agreement with Al & Danny...with all the death and destruction in 2004 (TSFH), and now the California mudslides and general southwest flooding...and the Sierra Mts. have received 14 FEET of snow...I will not hesitate to drop the hammer when it comes to people wishcasting a storm to come to them. I'm leaving it up as a warning to anyone else who wants to get a storm. Go play on other weather boards if that's your true heart's desire.
Unless you live alone on a deserted Island, you have to remember that what hits you hits others...and after this season, I seriously doubt anyone is looking for any more action.
You want to get hit, go buy a rowboat and go out into a fishspinner off the coast.
Off rant now. Ed, feel free to nuke the post and replies should you so choose.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jan 11 2005 02:05 PM |
|
Re: Another link to add to our collections
|
I see that I touched a nerve. Appologies. I figured that since I have seen first hand the death and destruction that these things can cause, I could speak this way with atleast a thread of legitimacy. Perhapes not. As I said, this whole issue has troubled me greatly. One one hand, my greatest passions (weather and film) are combined so greatly during such an event that it is overwhelming. On the other, I have to deal with the tragety that is the aftermath of a major hurricane. However, despite all of the terrible crap in my life, I always look back at that one moment ---THE moment. I dont know ---as I said, this has troubled me greatly. I just wanted some councle on the matter. Again, I am sorry for an discomfort I have caused.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jan 11 2005 03:57 PM |
|
|
|
Objectionable Posts
|
Quote:
I see that I touched a nerve. Appologies. I figured that since I have seen first hand the death and destruction that these things can cause, I could speak this way with atleast a thread of legitimacy. Perhapes not. As I said, this whole issue has troubled me greatly. One one hand, my greatest passions (weather and film) are combined so greatly during such an event that it is overwhelming. On the other, I have to deal with the tragety that is the aftermath of a major hurricane. However, despite all of the terrible crap in my life, I always look back at that one moment ---THE moment. I dont know ---as I said, this has troubled me greatly. I just wanted some councle on the matter. Again, I am sorry for an discomfort I have caused.
No worries and welcome to the site. That kind of post is fine on some other sites, like HCW, where nothing gets edited and it's more of a chatroom than a real information source like CFHC.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jan 11 2005 04:37 PM |
|
|
|
Happy Birthday
|
To Christine M. ("Webgirl") who helped Mike with the site redesign!
(A Shout out from the peanut gallery).
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Jan 11 2005 07:46 PM |
|
|
|
Off topic discussions (not storm specific)
|
These posts should be welcome outside the hurricane season, but should be in the "Everything and Nothing" forum. However, since it's here, my thoughts are below.
Quote:
I see that I touched a nerve. Appologies. I figured that since I have seen first hand the death and destruction that these things can cause, I could speak this way with atleast a thread of legitimacy. Perhapes not. As I said, this whole issue has troubled me greatly. One one hand, my greatest passions (weather and film) are combined so greatly during such an event that it is overwhelming. On the other, I have to deal with the tragety that is the aftermath of a major hurricane. However, despite all of the terrible crap in my life, I always look back at that one moment ---THE moment. I dont know ---as I said, this has troubled me greatly. I just wanted some councle on the matter. Again, I am sorry for an discomfort I have caused.
The duality of man leads us to seek out thrills from what appears to be and often is deadly, frightening or gruesome. This is true of storms of all types, images of atrocities, man made and natural events that you just can’t help but take a peak at or feel some sort of guilty satisfaction in seeking out or looking at. We’re curious.
Your interest level is normal and the fact that you are conflicted is a sign of a healthy, balanced mind. How can these overly powerful storms that are absolutely beautiful when imaged from space be so damn destructive and ruin so many lives? Who wouldn’t want to see one first hand? I saw 3 in 6 weeks and was stunned, impressed, frightened, elated and thankful all at once. Talk about conflict.
Thanks for visiting and sharing your thoughts.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Jan 11 2005 08:21 PM |
|
Re: Off topic discussions (not storm specific)
|
Great view you have placed on this subject Skeet. Can't really disagree with what you have said at all. I guess I look at things as to how the "general public" would see them and then best how to protect them.... can't shake the "protect & serve" thing... just a part of me. Well I have gone off topic myself so we all are even now
|
Christine H
|
| (Webgirl) |
| Wed Jan 12 2005 03:47 AM |
|
Re: Happy Birthday
|
Quote:
To Christine M. ("Webgirl") who helped Mike with the site redesign!
(A Shout out from the peanut gallery).
Thanks
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jan 12 2005 05:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Another link to add to our collections
|
There is a certain...large amount of curiosity in Humans. Sometimes it's a great thing and sometimes it gets us in trouble.
Other times our occupations influence/ compound our curiosity for more information. Once we get to a higher level, we still seek more data. Like the Robot in the movie "Short Circuit". He had a appetite for more data, so do we.
I admit to 'watching' for storms in years past...Pre-Andrew. After I saw the devastation that Andrew caused in Florida and Louisiana, I lost the urge to wake up every few hours and check the updates.
Let's all hope that we don't have to learn any more hard lessons in the years and seasons to come. The mental and physical stresses of "The Season from Hell" tm LIPhil , will be around for a long time.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jan 12 2005 05:34 AM |
|
|
|
NHC Track Forecasts
|
Hey folks don't forget. Jan 18th is the last day to submit your ideas for the 2005 season NHC/TPC track updates.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphicsprototypes.shtml
"Comments will be accepted through January 18, 2005.
Electronic submission of comments is encouraged.
Please submit comments to: trackchart@noaa.gov
Written comments may be addressed to:
Tropical Cyclone Program Manager
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway, Room 13126
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Comments may also be faxed to: 301-713-1520
For further information contact: Scott Kiser, 301-713-1677 extension 121 "
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jan 12 2005 11:23 PM |
|
Re: NHC Track Forecasts
|
Hey Guy's what's up place looks great.Hope everyone had some nice holidays and are getting ready for the big Game to come.Indy and ?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jan 12 2005 11:51 PM |
|
|
|
thrill commentary
|
jeffery... i feel the same way to a degree. just try and keep things in perspective, and not let the thrill of seeing and experiencing danger turn in to gawking at human tragedy. it's hard not to be fascinated by extremes in the world, whether man-made or natural.... it's fascinating to watch precision bombing footage, for instance.. probably not very fun to be precison bombed, though. keep in mind: rooting for a hurricane to come break some stuff isn't far removed from cheering at a snuff film.
HF 0440z13january
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jan 13 2005 05:52 PM |
|
Re: Ivan up I-65
|
I wanted to add went to Birmingham over Thanksgiving took 65N.The damage from Ivan could be seen a good 100 miles N on 65.The trees that where down and damage to some of the farms hard to imagine that far N.Then you think about the size of Ivan and you understand.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jan 13 2005 06:01 PM |
|
Caribbean blob
|
Well, look at that! It was in the central Carib yesterday, and today it is just off of Nicaragua, looking healthy...healthier than yesterday. If this were May/June, who knows?....interesting, none the less, looks like the disturbed weather is being induced by difluence linked to the frontal trough to the north.
MM
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Jan 15 2005 12:13 PM |
|
Just a Note
|
Initial Outlook for the 2005 Season has been posted in the Storm Forum ... and just a reminder to make an effort to post comments in the proper Forums.
Thanks,
ED
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jan 22 2005 01:59 AM |
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Slow in getting around here, but alas....been rather busy these past few weeks! Really like the new layout to the site, very snazzy. I was out in San Diego for awhile at the national AMS conference -- not much tropical, but there was still one session during the week on tropical cyclones, the tropical cyclone season in review, as well as the opportunity to talk with a lot of the big names in the field.
You all will be interested to know that yes, the forecasters at the NHC do, from time to time, check out these fan sites. Sometimes, they are right along with what we are saying, wave mongering and all. Other times, they want to rip their hair out at some of the things said! So yes, it goes both ways. Also, the NHC has seen many of the cartoons highlighting this season and even included a couple in the 2004 season in review.
That presentation, which I saw once in San Diego and again in more depth here at FSU just two days ago, highlighted several things of interest. One, they showed the SLOSH model output for Charley, highlighting the mechanism -- small circulation/eye size -- for such a small storm surge through the region. They really likened that storm to a tornado vortex. Its intensification near shore is still up for debate, but one theory includes jet streak interactions. The "return of Ivan" is still a subject of debate, but they are pretty well convinced that yes, it was Ivan, but that yes, there will always be room for debate. The evolution of Lisa was also brought up and they believe that had it and the vortex behind it -- Jack Beven called it "Lisa Prime" -- had a bit more space, we would've seen another storm out there. As it was, without more data in the storm's environment, the decision was made to stick with Lisa. The consensus models were the best ones this year, with the FSU Superensemble taking the title of "best model" this year for both intensity and storm track.
Everyone that I've met has been very approachable and very knowledgeable. Max Mayfield is very personable and affable, but a very busy person. Jack Beven is an interesting character and seems to be a storm tracker at heart. Lixion Avila -- yeah, definitely a character, a good "philosophist," and an interesting story teller! I've also met others outside the NHC, such as Chris Landsea (who's career path I very much envy). In many cases, despite being in grad school now and being able to call myself a meteorologist, I'm still in awe of some of these people and the work they do.
Alas, that about does it. Not much out there -- we've seen a WPac storm come and go, and really, that's going to be about it for the Northern Hemisphere for awhile. It's nice, to tell the truth. And come June, I'll be there with all of the forecasters at the NHC in hoping for a busy season with every last storm spinning up only the fish. Until next time...
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jan 26 2005 08:33 PM |
|
Re: This Should Be Cool
|
For mostly our PC/PCB peeps:
www.wjhg.com/weather
Look to the right for JK's weather blog & click.... hopefully this will be like a home grown "JB" right here in town! Interesting now and can't wait for the info during the season
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jan 28 2005 02:52 PM |
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Great info Clark; I always thought the NHC guys lurked on this site...where else could they get the best analysis (LOL).
Great look to this site..looking forward to the upcoming season.
Happy and safe New Year EDS
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jan 29 2005 01:37 AM |
|
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Word up to the rest of you suckaz. We didn't have the most exciting of storm seasons in 2004, but I did get to stay home while my wife and kids evacuated to Memphis for Ivan.
I read Ed's thread a few weeks ago and it looks like the concensus opinion is that 2005 might be a slightly above-average year with a shot for a few more US landfalls. Good deal. I hate the boring curvature years. I'll get my reserach done in May and try to throw something together for the upcoming season around then.
L8R,
Steve
| Luis Martinez |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jan 29 2005 07:40 AM |
|
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season
|
Hi my friends I am Cycloneye=Luis and I am back after a few weeks absent here because my PC burned but now I have a new one.I am ready to discuss all about the 2005 season but my initial numbers are 12/7/3.I will do a final forecast by april.But I dont know what happened that my username is my real name and not Cycloneye.
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Jan 29 2005 08:11 PM |
|
Re: Just a Note
|
From the 'About CFHC' Page:
"What this is all about is tracking storms, warning folks, and preventing injuries and deaths that would otherwise be catastrophic. These storms are one of nature's most marveling displays of power and anyone in a path of a major hurricane must take proper precautions."
One of the purposes of this site is to provide sound advise to others regarding the dangers associated with a landfalling hurricane, along with the common sense precautions that should be taken. Any post that makes jest of this danger defeats one of the prime purposes of the site and has no place on the site. My tolerance for this type of post is very low - always has been and always will be.
The excitement that you feel when a dangerous storm approaches is normal - because of your avid interest in weather and your desire to learn more about the forces of nature. However, use some caution when you post, because many others will read the post and some may get a false sense of security if you do not choose your words wisely. Even a Cat I Hurricane is dangerous and can kill people - and usually it happens to those that do not take heed to the precautions that are made before the storm strikes.
Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Mon Jan 31 2005 09:26 PM |
|
|
Re: Just a Note
|
While I completly agree with the above statment, I think that when you look at hurricanes as I do --as a natural process of the earth --things become a bit easier to live with. While I can name several hundred people right now who never want to hear the word 'hurricane' again, ultimatly, this is somthing that comes with life in Florida. Every mile of Florida has seen the eye of some hurricane. I am not the type of person who gets dissapointed if I dont hit by a cyclone in any given season (one or two waterspouts will do me in just fine), however if one is comming, I accept its reality and anticipate the worst. My family has hurricane partys with the passage of every storm to grace us, and we celibrate the end of the season. It is stressfull, but it somthing that every Floridian lives with. In the end, I believe that no one should pray for a major hurricane (which is essentially praying for the deaths that will inevitably occur), yet when one does threaten, simply accept the fact that hurricanes can and will make landfall in your area, and, if you can, try and enjoy the excitment of the moment. Dont think that it is unfair, or unjust, or that you did anything wrong to deserve it. Florida bears the brunt of earths air-conditioning system, and we need to find some way to live with this --or move. I have had several friends move this season, and they have every right to. Actually, if we get hit like we did last year, and the real estate market colapses, I may have to move myself. Given my love of weather though, I will proabably be the last to go.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Feb 01 2005 12:56 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Just a Note
|
Who would like the honors?...
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue Feb 01 2005 09:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Just a Note
|
Of what? I dont think that I said anything wrong. I in no way, want to create a false sense of security. Believe me, I know full well the dangers of a hurricane (proabably better than most people here). What I am trying to do is quite the opposite, actually. I was simply pointing out that tropical cyclones are a natural occurance, and people often time forget that. Rightly so, everyone in Punta Gorda (as well as all of Florida I imagine) --including myself, began to take it personally this season. You will see the effects of a hurricane if you live in Florida. This is a fact. I just think that we need to accept this, and be prepared for it. The main problem with hurricane prepardness today, is a lack of hurricane education. This is why I posted my "Hurricane Charley in Pictures" thread. When Charley was done, all I could talk about was how amazing it was. Then I looked down the street, and saw a woman screaming in response to her destroyed house, as her husband looked on helplessly. I saw this look alot that month. I dont want anyone to have to go through that. I think that every elementary school in the state of Florida, should study these storms in depth. Miraculously, only four people died in Charlotte County during hurricane Charley. I talked to Wayne Sallade, our emergency manager, and he was amazed that the casualties were not higher. Indeed, it is amazing what some people survived. While four deaths is a good statistic, try telling that to the families of those who died. It is even more heart-wrenching when we consider that none of them had to die. Two older people stayed in their mobile home which was destroyed, a man bled to death when the sliding glass door that he was holding up shattered, and a man was beheaded while standing outside after the eye had passed. I could have very well been one of those casualties. There is a large two story house a couple houses down from me. When its roof went, all the shingles sliced up the neighborhood. My dad and I got out of the way the instant one of the shingles broke through door. This thing was moving so fast that it actually penetrated a 2X4 up against the door –the door itself –and a window on the other side of the house. It was hugging the wall as it flew by, creating a huge gash through the plaster, marking its path. If we had not moved a mere 20 seconds earlier, someone would have probably died. My point is, we need to focus more on hurricane education. There is no reason for anyone to get caught out in the eye anymore. I know one family that, upon evacuating, insisted they open up all their windows so that the wind would harmlessly blow through the house. They lost their roof. Mistakes like this need not be made. While it is true, we shoudl never hope for a hurricane to come, we need to be ready when it does. Because it will. And the only people that deserve to die in a hurricane, are idiots like myself. This is all that I am saying.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Feb 01 2005 11:32 AM |
|
|
Re: Just a Note
|
After discussion with another moderator, it has been determined that your prior post is fine, and your follow up post is well taken. When I see the words "hurricane partys", I am instantly reminded of the (now debunked) hurricane party which supposedly took place at the Richelieu Apartments during Camille. We all know how that turned out. If you are told to evacuate and you do not do so, you do so at your own peril...to "glorify" staying and not being killed serves no purpose on these boards; in fact, your stories just may inspire others to stay when they should leave, and you could be putting other lives in jeopardy.
If you want to speak of the horrors of living through the eye, that's fine. We want everyone to know how dangerous these monsters are. But if you want to "brag" about how great that experience was and sort of hope to go thru it again, then you can take those sentiments to another board.
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue Feb 01 2005 12:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Just a Note
|
hmmm...I diddnt know that infamouse party was debunked. But I see what you mean about party. Let me clarify: we celibrate the passage of the season.
But if you want to "brag" about how great that experience was and sort of hope to go thru it again, then you can take those sentiments to another board.
Is this how I came off? Looking back I suppose that I have been more than a little proud of my experiences. I remember a quote from Issac's Storm in which the author talks about how, with time, the waves get bigger and the winds faster with each story. I think invariably, everyone thinks that they are invincible until they meet death in the face. Pride comes before the fall I guess. I must admit that any and all feelings of excitment that procede a hurricane are quickly vanquished once things really get started. Bottom line is, if you are told to evaquate, heed the warning --it will save your life. My greatest fear is that of storm surge. In Charley, I was scared to the point of throwing up. To be honost, I did not want it to last. It is not fun, and I wonder myself what continues to fuel my facination. Hurricanes are the most terrible disasters on the face of the planet, and I should have conveyed these feelings in my pictorial. My purpose here is to help educate those in need. I dont want others to have to experience what I, and so many other familes have in the past.
http://photos2.flickr.com/3656070_23476cf880.jpg
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Feb 01 2005 07:40 PM |
|
|
Re: Just a Note
|
>>> I remember a quote from Issac's Storm
Yes, the poor people in Galveston learned a lesson didn't they?
Regarding your posts, as long as you're in agreement with the purpose of this board, which is to provide accurate and up-to-date information among other things, you may freely regale us with your hurricane experiences...they should not go in the main forum, however.
This past summer, this board's ultimate wishcaster (ya'll know of whom I speak) damn near got his wish with Ivan. Well, he tied up his boat as best as he could and he bolted well inland. I doubt very highly he'll ever, even jokingly, call for every cloud in the GOM a CAT V heading straight for Mobile.
Thank you for sharing your expriences and your personal accounts & photos of Charley are not only welcome, but educational as well.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Feb 02 2005 10:25 AM |
|
Re: STS developing in Eastlant
|
The pic this morning sure looks like it....about 27N, 39 W...take a look....
MM
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Feb 03 2005 06:03 AM |
|
|
|
Re: STS developing in Eastlant
|
I see a rotation on the loop. Very Interesting.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Feb 03 2005 09:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: STS developing in Eastlant
|
indeed. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG
EDIT: url/
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Feb 03 2005 09:43 PM |
|
|
|
No STS Developing
|
No STS developing here folks...NHC would mention it in the discussion. Here is what they say about this area of low pressure.
"989 MB DEEP-LAYERED LOW REMAINS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N59W...330 MILES ESE OF BERMUDA. THIS CUTOFF LOW HAS BEEN CHURNING UP THE ATLANTIC FOR DAYS WITH GALES PRESENT OVER A LARGE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS ALSO OCCURRING DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE AND RELATIVE SLOW MOTION OF THE LOW WITH SWELLS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 FT IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC."
So big waves and gales, but nothing tropical or subtropical.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Feb 03 2005 11:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: No STS Developing
|
or so they say....
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Feb 04 2005 12:33 AM |
|
|
|
Re: No STS Developing
|
that's still miles away from anything subtropical. no central convection, frontal style band well away to the east.. huge dry air slot to the west. nope, i don't think we'll call it arlene just yet.
HF 0427z04february
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Fri Feb 04 2005 10:47 AM |
|
|
|
Re: No STS Developing
|
I was just joking
I keep remembering how the NHC told a little fib about a weakening Andrew to keep public awarness up.
| Matthurricane |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Feb 06 2005 09:34 PM |
|
Re: No STS Developing
|
Interesting!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Feb 07 2005 11:32 AM |
|
What's this????
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
ULL ??
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Feb 07 2005 06:02 PM |
|
Re: What's this????
|
It's a deep layer low (i.e. pretty much extending through the depth of the troposphere) that has been sitting and spinning for awhile now. Definitely not anything tropical or subtropical, though -- check out the frontal band to the east and you'll see an extratropical system. Cyclone phase analyses show a developing cold core system as it moves off to the north and east with time; could be a player for England in a few days if the current pattern ever shifts.
Interesting to note -- the system that was near Bermuda last week (this might be the same one; I've been off forecasting for Barrow, AK and Buenos Aires, Argentina this weekend so I'm not sure) had a shallow warm-core for a period of time last week. The wind field never contracted, however, and the convective pattern was never indicative of anything near subtropical structure -- so that goes to show you that yes, there can be (and often are) warm-core extratropical cyclones....in fact, some of the strongest extratropical systems tend to grow during a warm-core phase in their lifetime. But I digress.
SSTs have a long ways to go before we really need to be peeking that way....though with a subtropical storm in April 2003 and a South Atlantic storm in March 2004, why not something again in February 2005? Anything can happen, but I'm going to say pretty confidently that we won't see a storm this month.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Mon Feb 07 2005 06:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: What's this????
|
A sound assessment indeed, Clark.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Feb 07 2005 08:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: What's this????
|
Quote:
A sound assessment indeed, Clark.
Yes, Jeffrey, Clark IS a meterologist, so I would say he knows of what he speaks.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Feb 09 2005 02:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: What's this????
|
ok 'li' phil.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Feb 10 2005 01:23 PM |
|
|
Hurricane Season 2004 Scrapbook of Headlines
|
Hi Everyone,
I have been working recently on my Hurricane Season 2004 website. For those not familiar, I live in Central Florida and suffered through 3 of the 4 hurricanes that struck Florida last year, with quite extensive damage to my property and surrounding neighborhoods. I spent a lot of time during August and September filming the resulting storm impact to my local area. I got the idea to present the results in an un-official website for those interested to experience on a small scale the events that we endured last season.
Heres the url to the site:
Hurricane Season 2004
Living here in the Orlando area, needless to say, the hurricanes dominated the newspaper headlines. In addition to the website, I have been putting together a scrapbook of articles from the Orlando Sentinel covering last year's hurricanes. I have now begun to scan the scrapbook and incorporate it into the hurricane website.
I invite everyone to check out the work in progress. As of right now, I have completed 30 pages of the scrapbook, with much more to come.
Here's the link to the scrapbook portion of the site:
Hurricane Season 2004 Scrapbook
I'd love to hear comments and any suggestions regarding any aspect of the site. Hopefully, the 2005 season will not come close to repeating history..but some of the early indicators point to a season with above normal activity. Just this week, a statement by Stacy Stewart of the NHC reported that the early weather patterns are shaping up very similar to 2004. He stated that, while 4 hurricanes are not expected again in Florida, it should be expected that possibly 2 intense storms may strike the state this year.
Sigh,........I am still sitting here fighting with insurance over the damage. I'll still not have my repairs completed before tropical threats begin anew......
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Feb 10 2005 02:30 PM |
|
Question for you-all
|
I heard a blurb on the radio this morning stating that the Bermuda High will be in place again this season making it another active season.
Is this speculation?, or is there hard evidence that this is the case.
You know how the media loves to twist things to sell the news.
Thanks
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Feb 10 2005 03:52 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Question for you-all
|
It could be for a good part of the summer, but in order for the SE ridge to be in the SE then you need a trof west of Hawaii, and a general westward track of typhoons in the west pacific. Keep in mind the southeast ridge does not determine how many hurricane's form, but how many are more likely to hit land.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Feb 12 2005 10:03 AM |
|
|
|
News story regarding Bermuda High
|
Here is a link to the news story about the Bermunda High
http://www.local10.com/weather/4181233/detail.html
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Feb 12 2005 10:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: News story regarding Bermuda High
|
"If the pattern holds in place, it could help make for another active hurricane season. Forecasters are always quick to remind residents that how many storms form is not nearly as important as being prepared in case one of them is a killer storm like Andrew."
I don't think this current pattern will hold after winter is over. Since the big factor for the ridge in the SE or Bermuda is determined by the trof in relation to Hawaii; and since the el nino has reached a neutral state and some models are hinting at a la nina-I might have the wrong idea about next year. For worse it might seem so...
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Feb 12 2005 10:51 PM |
|
|
|
Hurricane Alley's Forecast
|
Anyone who hasn't noticed Hurricane Alley's 2005 forecast can see it here, they are updating it monthly.
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Forecast/forecast2005FEB.htm
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Feb 14 2005 09:25 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Season 2004 Scrapbook of Headlines
|
Quote:Lou, Thanks for sharing this with us. Your web site brings back some horrible memories for me (I live just south of you in E Orlando near 50&436) and worse, live in a mobile home) Your hard work shows. I hope you will leave this site up for quite a while. It is a place I can refer 'wishcasters' to when this coming season, I see or hear someone saying "I just *love* hurricanes...they are so exciting". Balderdash...your site vividly shows not excitement, but many personal tragedies. The complancency of living well away from beaches was shattered for millions here in Central Floriday. Thanks for documenting it so well.
Hi Everyone,
I have been working recently on my Hurricane Season 2004 website. For those not familiar, I live in Central Florida and suffered through 3 of the 4 hurricanes that struck Florida last year, with quite extensive damage to my property and surrounding neighborhoods. I spent a lot of time during August and September filming the resulting storm impact to my local area. I got the idea to present the results in an un-official website for those interested to experience on a small scale the events that we endured last season.
--Lou
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Feb 14 2005 08:40 PM |
|
Re: Question for you-all
|
I was kind of amazed when I saw that article, particularly with quotes. While persistent ridge/trough features are common with various weather patterns, it is hard to predict 5-8 months out where these ridges will be. For one, we don't have a really good handle on the sea state in the Eastern Pacific -- some think it's a weak El Nino event, others say neutral -- and that's just one of many factors going into the forecast.
Beyond forecasting whether or not the subtropical ridge is going to be in a position to lead to storms moving like they did in 2004 is the intensity as well as exact extent of the ridge. A slightly weaker ridge than in 2004 would lead to more storms recurving into the ridge and affecting the Outer Banks; one slightly further east would've sent more storms offshore, while one further west would've sent more storms into the northern Gulf coast after hitting Florida. There's no skill in predicting that this far out other than climatology - which, as we've seen, holds little skill in predicting an extreme event such as last season.
I could go into some of the processes that strengthen ridges and determine a hurricane's movement, but I think it's a bit beyond the scope of the article & argument. I guess what I'm trying to say is that yes, while it is possible something like last summer sets up, it's no more likely than a complete pattern shift taking place and a scenario like 1995 setting up. It's a bit of sensationalization, yes. There is some fact behind it, but the skill is very negligible.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Feb 14 2005 10:00 PM |
|
|
|
Hurricane Charley 6 Months Later Website Photos
|
Quote:
Lou, Thanks for sharing this with us. Your web site brings back some horrible memories for me (I live just south of you in E Orlando near 50&436) and worse, live in a mobile home) Your hard work shows. I hope you will leave this site up for quite a while. It is a place I can refer 'wishcasters' to when this coming season, I see or hear someone saying "I just *love* hurricanes...they are so exciting". Balderdash...your site vividly shows not excitement, but many personal tragedies. The complancency of living well away from beaches was shattered for millions here in Central Floriday. Thanks for documenting it so well.
Thanks for the compliments on my site. I have been doing a photo study around the Orlando area to document how Central Florida is recovering from last years' hurricanes. I have posted the results on my Hurricane 2004 Website. You may view the pictures at:
6 Months After Charley
Anyone who lives in the Orlando area knows that, for the most part, the commercial areas have nearly completed their repairs from the storms. The only lingering damage are the many business signs that were blown out by the high winds. While many businesses have replaced the signage, some work remains.
The residential areas, on the other-hand, have struggled to some extent. There remain a large number of homes throughout the area with roofs that have tarps covering damage. Many yards continue to have downed trees,...or the huge uprooted stump remains. There are still a lot of downed fences in yards. I found that, in some cases, homes were sitting abandoned...left in the condition they were the day after the storm. Still others have been completely bulldozed, with "For Sale" signs left on the vacant land.
Speaking from my own personal experience, I know it is still near impossible to get a roofing or fence contractor. Most companies continue to have months-long backlogs. I have been embroiled in an ongoing battle with my local town's govt offices who are threatening me with $100 a day fines if I do not get my fence replaced around my backyard pool. I have resorted to presenting city hall with signed statements from fence contractors to proove I am not sandbagging the work.
All in all, this has been a trying and stressful year, working through multiple damage / insurance claims. If 2005 comes anything close to last year, I think many will throw- in-the-towel and move out of Florida.
--Lou
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Feb 15 2005 12:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Charley 6 Months Later Website Photos
|
Quote:Lou, I hope it doesn't come to that. I was born here in Orlando, in what was then called 'Orlando General Hospital'. It is now know as Orange Regional Medical Center. Since then, like the hospital, there has been much growth and many changes. Many of the changes, like the remains of TSFH (tm) (the season from hell) are not good, but what remains is well worth fighting for. We've survived Disney, Universal, Sea World and beach erosion. Charlie and his relatives damaged us all, severely. Both physically and mentall. Unfortunately, storms like Charlie are a fact of life, as is growth. The good and the bad are a fact of almost any human or natural activity. We must take advantage of the good and minimize the bad when we can. We can, and must adapt to changes, including ones like Charlie. The best thing I have seen as a result of TSFH is few people now laugh and joke about storms, they now take them seriously. A result of this is increased awareness of such storms and not a few have tried to educate themselves on the subject. The end result of this will save many more lives than were lost. Those that died or suffered injury or loss did not do so in vain because many more will be spared because they will take heed next time and react in time.
All in all, this has been a trying and stressful year, working through multiple damage / insurance claims. If 2005 comes anything close to last year, I think many will throw- in-the-towel and move out of Florida.
Don't leave us even if we do get more storms. Make what is left behind even better than before. I'll try and do my part. Your being here in this forum suggests you are and will continue to do yours. Your site and the work you invest in it go a long way to further the education of those still not convinced or who are new and inexperienced. Keep it going!
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Feb 16 2005 07:35 AM |
|
Administrative Notes
|
Just a couple of things to remember:
1. Please post your article in the proper Forum - I had to move quite a few posts this morning.
2. Remember that this site is not a chat room, so one-line posts are generally not appropriate. Don't just say 'I agree' - instead tell us 'why' you agree.
Thanks,
ED
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Feb 16 2005 03:17 PM |
|
|
|
satelite blues
|
in the nhc's satelite imagery page, they've trimmed the atlantic basin satelite to just the western atlantic. same resolution, just a smaller picture. that was my usual source for satelite shots in the eastern and central atlantic.. why'd they have to go and do that?
HF 1815z16february
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Feb 16 2005 07:06 PM |
|
Re: satellite blues
|
Perhaps its a bandwidth issue, however , the Navy images out of Monterey NRL still cover the full basin and are available at:
Latest NRL Atlantic IR Satellite Image
Visible and Water Vapor images are also available. Just click on the thumbnail image for a full-scale picture. The images can be motion-sequenced.
Cheers,
ED
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Feb 17 2005 08:28 AM |
|
Re: satelite blues
|
Here's a good one:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wx/satellite/index.html
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Feb 18 2005 04:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: satelite blues
|
Hey, that is pretty good. Thanks for sharing!
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Feb 19 2005 05:53 PM |
|
|
|
Re: satelite blues
|
I appologies for the "one word" post, but thank you indeed!
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Feb 20 2005 12:13 AM |
|
|
Hello to all
|
So, it has been a couple of months since I've posted. We're now several months removed from the 2004 hurricane season, aka the ride from hell. I just decided to check in here and see how everyone is doing.
For all of you that were impacted by last season's hurricanes, I hope that your recovery efforts are going well. Especially those of you who suffered major property damage.
Obviously the 2005 season is starting to come to mind...March isn't too far, and that's when we start to see more predictions/forecasts pop up. I certainly believe that there is an excellent chance that this season will be above average as far as the level of activity goes. Still, landfalls are the more important issue. Although I don't expect this season to be anywhere near last year in terms of the number of severe landfalls, I believe Florida (and the rest of the coast) could once again see significant hurricane activity. My reasoning for this is based on something that I have noticed when looking at past hurricane seasons. Basically, these years where we have 6 or 7 US landfalls tend to come in cycles. It seems like they are usually 2 years in length, maybe 3 at the most. At any rate, any person who lives in a hurricane prone area should be prepared. This is a lesson that the 2004 season surely taught all of us living in areas that are affected by hurricanes.
That's all I have to say for now...
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Feb 20 2005 07:01 PM |
|
Re: Hello to all
|
Great new format here at FLhurricane! The 2005 season is fast approaching - let's hope Florida isn't in harm's way this year - after last year - you folks deserve a break.
ticka1
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Feb 22 2005 06:07 PM |
Take a look....
|
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/local_news/epaper/2005/02/21/c1c_Bermuda_0221.html
MM
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Feb 22 2005 06:12 PM |
|
Re: Take a look....
|
Ooops, sorry.. I see this is old news here..of course!!
MM
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Feb 22 2005 06:16 PM |
|
Re: Agree with Clark
|
Agree with Clark.
One note: La Nada years (no El Nino, no La Nina) historically have produced the most landfalls of major hurricanes in Fl--last yr was la Nada. If indeed we are heading into the season with a weak El Nino or worse, La Nada, that is the worst scenario of all.
I expect an early storm this year, based on the averages.
Anyway you look at it, there are no GOOD indications, only indicators of a bad season coming...number wise and landfall (in Fl) wise.
MM
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Feb 25 2005 02:15 AM |
|
|
|
ENSO/SOI
|
SOI index is the lead indicator for el nino phase... recently it's giving one heck of a signal. it is mixed over time.. during january positive SOI (the signal that precipitates la nina conditions) was mostly the rule, but pretty much all february a very strongly negative SOI has been the case. a cool SST spike appeared off the west coast of peru and has run all the way out to 130w as of this week.. probably in response to the persistently positive SOI earlier in the winter. the strongly negative SOI will more than likely knock that back down, and possibly set up the onset of another el nino event. i believe clark was mentioning something to this effect earlier.. i'd only been watching SST trends, not the lead signal. this isn't set in stone.. there is more time before the season comes on.. but if the february trend keeps up, we'll be seeing an el nino in '05.
HF 0712z25february
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Feb 27 2005 12:28 PM |
Re: ENSO/SOI
|
Your possibly right HankFrank. The subsurface temps have increased in some regions due to a kelvin wave. Will it push to the surface is anyones guess but it is a sign with the SOI:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Feb 28 2005 05:44 AM |
|
Re: ENSO/SOI
|
Hey guys, my first post of the year! Nice look to the site now too
I thought last year saw marginal El Nino conditions - cant remember when but i beleive it was shortlived. Looking at the SST's and anomalies looks like we could be seeing a set up for a more significant El Nino event for this year.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Mar 05 2005 11:08 AM |
|
|
|
El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected
|
Here are a couple of links for reference to El Nino
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Mar 05 2005 01:50 PM |
|
|
Re: El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected
|
OK, I'm still a weather newbie, but from what I'm gathering... El Nino conditions are weakening or will weaken. This would make for a more active Atlantic hurricane season. And I have been also paying more attention to the Bermuda high, which has not moved into a different location, where it has remained will continue to steer hurricanes toward Florida. Am I anywhere near correct in my understanding?
Just want to be on the up and up with this. Too many people were caught off guard last season. Too many people are still nowhere near having there repairs completed as supplies are still in such demand. So, hopefully a little bit of insight into the "potential" of what we may experience will help us prepare the best we can.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Mar 06 2005 09:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected
|
Quote:
OK, I'm still a weather newbie, but from what I'm gathering... El Nino conditions are weakening or will weaken. This would make for a more active Atlantic hurricane season. And I have been also paying more attention to the Bermuda high, which has not moved into a different location, where it has remained will continue to steer hurricanes toward Florida. Am I anywhere near correct in my understanding?
Just want to be on the up and up with this. Too many people were caught off guard last season. Too many people are still nowhere near having there repairs completed as supplies are still in such demand. So, hopefully a little bit of insight into the "potential" of what we may experience will help us prepare the best we can.
I'm assuming you read that article in the Palm Beach Post. It uses Jim Lushine and a couple of the NHC forecasters to solidify its position that the Bermuda High's position hasn't changed much from last year.
Although looking at averages of the high's strength and location for several months may be a method of coming to that conclusion, the most important thing to remember is that hurricane landfalls are VERY difficult to predict months in advance. In fact, doing that is damn near impossible. The landfalling location of a hurricane is something that is determined on, at times, a down to the last minute scale. Basically, it's hard to predict such a short term event with long term methods. That's why it is hard to get a grip on who might be at the greatest risk this season.
Maybe a met/met student could shed some more light on this.
EDIT: Also, there is always "potential" to experience a severe hurricane landfall in any given season. With that being said, you should prepare equally for every hurricane season.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Mar 18 2005 07:48 AM |
Re: El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected
|
The way it started looking was El Nino making a comeback this summer but now I beleive it won't. SOI has gone positve and there has not been another kelvin wave to intensify SST's. Can't believe it's only a few weeks till we here from Dr.Grey on his April predictions for this upcoming season. Talk to you all soon.