MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Mon Apr 04 2005 08:10 PM |
Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
This year Dr. William Gray and Colorado State University Have continued the active trend of last year into this year. With 13 Named Storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
The full numbers can be seen on the link here
Dr. Gray doesn't predict landfall, and can't. Although with these numbers, we may be seeing again a very active year. Time will tell.
Also, if you haven't seen it yet, check out Jeffrey McElroy's Hurricane Charley Videos
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
SST Forecast
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Apr 04 2005 10:00 PM |
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
Well your first paragraph leads the reader to believe the numbers are 11/6/3. The update shows 13/7/3. Just thought I'd clarify that
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Apr 05 2005 12:21 AM |
|
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
hopefully florida and other areas will be spared from landfall
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Apr 05 2005 07:26 AM |
|
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
Quote:
Well your first paragraph leads the reader to believe the numbers are 11/6/3. The update shows 13/7/3. Just thought I'd clarify that
The "11/6/3" numbers were from Dr Grays' December update.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Apr 05 2005 09:20 PM |
|
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
I spent a bit of time today reading through Dr. Gray's report. It's pretty interesting. Amazing that some of it is actually making sense-thanks to you all!!
The report mentioned that the numbers will most likely be increased again in May and August. I know these are just predictions and it is easier to predict as the time comes near, but has he normally increased his numbers in past years?
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue Apr 05 2005 11:46 PM |
|
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
As a rule, I don't think he ever increases his numbers by more than one this far out. Nothing is really set in stone now, and it is far too early to jump to any conclusions.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Apr 06 2005 12:50 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
No jumping to conclusions here. Just wasn't sure what to make of the report and saying they anticipated further increases. I agree that it would be too early to tell-so I figure it must be standard procedure to revise the numbers periodically and they probably say that every year.
I don't want to be caught off guard this year, though had lots of practice last year. I know where to come for the scoop
, but know a lot of people that were caught off guard with each and every storm last season and will probably be again this year. Stubborness, I suppose.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Apr 06 2005 01:12 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
If you get time. Look back at Dr Gray's forecast verification for 2004. I used his verification tables from 1999-2004, and he Never jumps more than 1, from the December to April forecasts. However, for some reason, this April he has added 2 to the forecast. I haven't finished reading on his parameters yet, but I'm sure he has a scientific reason.
LIPhil had the same notion. As he posted the same numbers as Dr Gray.
With that said, it's still way to early in the 'game' to predict the exact number of storms. Just start planning Now and Hope that none of us have to utilize our planning.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Apr 12 2005 07:21 PM |
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
Yay Server's back up finally! Sorry for all the downtime folks.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Apr 12 2005 09:42 PM |
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
Great to see the board back.Fortunatly the downtime occured in a non active time for the forum as the season has not arrived.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Apr 13 2005 03:09 PM |
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
Well, just saw JBs video on the PC site. You can take it for what its worth, but he foresees higher land fall probablilities (but not as high as last year), but says Florida will be in the crossfire again
Hope this year will be a quiet one. I'm still waiting for shingles to arrive 
| Beaujolais |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Apr 13 2005 08:53 PM |
|
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
Told ya that New Orleans was gonna have a quiet Cane Season!!
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Apr 13 2005 09:08 PM |
|
Re: Dr. William Gray's April 2005 Predictions
|
Don`t count your craw dads until they`re cooked
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Apr 14 2005 11:24 PM |
|
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
Look's like something is tring to brew early again this year.The lower circulation could be seen below the cloud cover earlier.Whether it makes it warm core and to the surface is another question.Then all we have to do is look at Ana last year a very similiar situation.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmhx.shtml
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Apr 14 2005 11:38 PM |
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
Looks like you are onto something Jav!
MM
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 12:45 AM |
|
|
|
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
The following are forecasts from earlier today. At this time they are from 7.5 to 13.5 hours old. The new models aren't in yet.
4 of the 5 models take the Low off of The Carolinas into the Atlantic over the next 3 days.(12Z-Sunday)
None of the above forecast models are indicating the Low will deepen beyound 1000mbs. I believe it was lower than 1000mbs last weekend when crossing the Western Plains.
I will try to post the model update when it becomes available later tonight.
The Weather Channel is giving updates on the Low at the present time.
CMCGLB: 2005041412Z FCST-Shallow, symetrical warm core
GFS: 2005041418Z Fcst- Shallow, symetrical warm core
MM5-AF: 2005041418Z Fcst-Shallow, symetrical warm core
NGP: 2005041412Z Fcst-Deep, symetrical Cold core
UKMET: 2005041412Z Fcst-Shallow, symetrical warm core
| Mitch |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 12:46 AM |
|
Home Weather Station
|
Fyi...for anyone in my area - Central Brevard Co., FL I added a home weather station (Davis Vantage Pro2 wireless) in December. If we have any storms threatening this year, you can check out my info. I am still working on the web sites as I just figured out how to make custom pages from the XML data. One web page is updated every 5 minutes and the other every several seconds. Here is the main link...
http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/rg-weather.html
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 12:54 AM |
|
|
|
Re:Low off of the S.C. coast
|
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 14 APR 2005
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 85W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER BUILDING THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES S OF 21N. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS FLORIDA AND E OF THE CAROLINA COAST . THIS SYSTEM IS LINKED TO A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CHARLESTON SC AND BROAD TROUGHING REACHING DOWN TO S FLORIDA. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SRN GA/AL/MS/ THE FL PANHANDLE/ AND THE NE GULF WATERS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK 1009 MB SFC LOW JUST E OF COCOA BEACH FL EXTENDS A TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE E GULF WATERS BUT IS MERELY PROVIDING A WIND SHIFT AND PATCHY CUMULUS CLOUDS. EXPECT NE FLOW TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITHIN 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OVER THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.
ATLANTIC...
...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH IS SPREADING OVER THE W ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 70W-80W....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 01:39 AM |
|
|
Re: Home Weather Station
|
Mitch - great website!
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 11:58 AM |
|
Re: Home Weather Station
|
Katie, I have to agree with you. Mitch, great job on your weather station and web site. You can count on me to use your site all summer down here in Indiatlantic. Again great work.....Weatherchef
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 01:57 PM |
|
Re: Home Weather Station
|
GREAT JOB MITCH
Living here on the Beach, it will be a great tool.
I have already booked marked your website.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 06:04 PM |
|
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
It looks to be a subtropical-type storm at this time, but we're hurt by a lack of QuikScat data over the center -- it just so happened to fall in the middle of one of the data gaps.
The model phase analyses on the storm have been very interesting to date, suggesting the potential to briefly dig into the warm core realm of things. But, the validity of it depends upon how well the models are picking up the system -- and judging from the visible satellite imagery lately, it's not very big -- and the warm-core structure may be diabatically (e.g. convectively) induced, per the big guy himself (that being the man behind the phase diagrams).
It's been a really weird weather pattern over the past few days, starting with the movement of the incipient upper-low and development of a blocking pattern across the Eastern seaboard -- an upper-ridge actually built in over the NE US from the east. The structure of the system on satellite imagery & in surface analyses is not unlike a secluded structure -- not necessarily warm seclusion, but a seclusion in general. Convection has been trying to develop over the center today in a very narrow band, occasionally wrapping around, but the cloud tops are not very cold and the shear is still a bit too great -- namely on the eastern side -- for anything to happen fast.
Water temperatures, in limited spots, are near 25-26 C, subfavorable but not entirely out of the realm of possibility. In limited regions along the Gulf Stream, Max. Pot. Intensity maps suggest the potential to support up to a cat 1/2 hurricane...but if the storm were to move a whole lot, it'd get into a much weaker environment. Tropopause temperatures are around -55 C, making the difference between surface and aloft about 80 degrees C, not bad.
Most likely development, if any: subtropical structure. Likely not to move a while lot over the next few days in this blocknig regime; if anything, it should drift south. The tropical MM5 we run here in the lab (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5) suggests a slow southward drift to the system, gradually dissipating in about 3-4 days. Were it to last beyond there, the strength of the ridge over the US would determine ultimate motion -- stronger would send it towards Florida (broken record, I know), weaker out to sea. The latter looks more likely, though, esp. after dissipation. We only run it at 00z each day though, so the data might be slightly old. I'll add more if there's anything new down the line...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 09:10 PM |
|
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
Excellent analysis Clark---agree 100%.
Definitely it IS a STS--or TS. Latest satpic shows and eye feature, spiral bands, etc.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
MM
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 09:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
Excellent analysis Clark---agree 100%.
Definitely it IS a STS--or TS
Don't be hasty. He diddn't say that it was a tropical or subtropical storm at the moment.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 10:42 PM |
|
|
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
At a minimum, it is interesting to finally have a system to discuss. Here is a color ehanced version of the satellite image referenced in the post above. We enahanced the image and added color due to low light levels in the satellite image.
Full size color enhanced image
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Fri Apr 15 2005 10:51 PM |
|
|
|
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
At a minimum, it is interesting to finally have a system to discuss. Here is a color ehanced version of the satellite image referenced in the post above. We enahanced the image and added color due to low light levels in the satellite image.
Awesome image Skeetobite. And I agree, it is wonderful to have something worth talking about. At any rate, things are finally getting interesting.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Apr 16 2005 07:16 AM |
|
|
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
It's events like these that remind us how close we really are to the start of the season. Doesn't seem at all long since the end of the last one.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Apr 16 2005 12:47 PM |
|
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
Time to make sure those cameras are all in working order guys.We might have some early surprises popping up this season...Weatherchef
| Rob_M |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Apr 16 2005 09:27 PM |
|
|
Not too much longer
|
Hey all...long time no see. Don't believe I've posted here since Aug last season, (got real busy when school started and just sort of took a break from posting for a while). I hope everyone here has enjoyed their offseason because the good old days of staying up late and watching every blob in the Atl are fast approaching. This gale off the NC coast has lost the little chance it had to ever become a STS, but it is/was an interesting feature...a sign of things to come? Maybe, maybe not.
Our website has recently been recontstructed a bit, more up-to-date info. And for those wondering, Jason and I will be releasing our annual seasonal forecast on May 25 as always. Been working on a lot of stats and research the past several months, in addition to closely monitoring ENSO. We've also added some new methods to account for the few missed aspects of last season (the FL barrage for instance).
And man, I've been hearing all sorts of rumors and claims about this year, ranging from a beastly FL-targeted repeat of last year...to a calmer, El Nino-hindered season. Perhaps...
Y'all take care.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Apr 19 2005 01:25 PM |
|
|
|
SST 2004 vs. 2005 comparison
|
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Apr 19 2005 06:32 PM |
|
Re: SST 2004 vs. 2005 comparison
|
Great job skeet!
doens't look good for us....same or warmer than last year, most places except right off the e coast...and obviously no el nino .
MM
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Apr 19 2005 06:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: SST 2004 vs. 2005 comparison
|
I'm no expert, but logic dictates that the shallower waters off the coast (above the continental shelf) you mentioned will have no trouble heating up as Summer approaches.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Apr 19 2005 11:12 PM |
Re: Home Weather Station
|
Hey! We live in Brevard county and I have added your weather site to my favorites. I am really hoping we do not have a repeat of last year
. I am already making plans for this coming season. I bought an extra Futon mattress for family memebers that always come to our house to wait it out... If they get any bigger than last year I'm headed up north to take cover in TN where we have other family members. we are already stocking up on water and can goods and I am thinking of buying a small freezer for ice and other things. we are lucky to have 4 generators as we have a small construction business. Here's to wishing everyone around Florida and other areas a safe hurricane season. May everyone get their repairs done before the next season starts.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Apr 22 2005 11:59 PM |
|
Re: SST 2004 vs. 2005 comparison
|
The MDR region is definitily warmer this year as well as the area around PR.The GOM will will warm up quick enough by mid June.The activity over Africa looks impressive right now.It is still way to early for the waves to have a chance out there but what if it was late July or August.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Apr 23 2005 05:15 AM |
|
|
SOI still way negative
|
more than a week ago i mentioned that SOI had gone negative. it's still there, so this may be another event like the february SOI spell that generated that kelvin wave which knocked the 1/2 region SSTs back into weak warm. this is the straw about to break the camel's back as far as my preseason forecast goes... the SOI pattern may be oscillating, but when it goes positive it never gets strongly so... the negative phases early this year have been very strong. we will probably still be in a weak el nino mode going into the season, and i'm getting the idea that's going to be the pattern for the rest of 2005.
as far as numbers go i'm not going to presume that weak el nino conditions will have a significant reducing effect. for 2003 and 2004 that wasn't the case, and 2002 wasn't all that mild of an el nino year either.
a little heads-up. the wmo ought to verify the name retirements for 2004 fairly soon, and give us the remade 2010 list. four storms from the '04 list you know you can kiss goodbye. so we get a new 'c' (i'm all for clyde to follow bonnie), an 'f', and the 'i' and 'j' replacements also.
odd note: the forecast high for sunday is in the 50s here, with partly cloudy conditions. it's odd to get a sunny day that cold this late in the season around here. pretty amplified pattern we're in. this keeps up, we'll have stretches where the east coast is open for business during the hurricane season.
HF 0707z23april
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Apr 24 2005 01:39 AM |
|
|
|
Re: SOI still way negative
|
Quote:
odd note: the forecast high for sunday is in the 50s here, with partly cloudy conditions. it's odd to get a sunny day that cold this late in the season around here. pretty amplified pattern we're in. this keeps up, we'll have stretches where the east coast is open for business during the hurricane season.
HF 0707z23april
Hey Hank, you Do Mean vacationing business right!
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Apr 24 2005 12:26 PM |
|
Re: SOI still way negative
|
I have to agree HF that the weak El Nino if not maybe neutral conditions are going to persist for the upcoming season.This condition will have little effect in the long run on the numbers for the season.The amplifications of these fronts I think will subside before to long and the normal summer pattern will set in.I think it still to early to call the ridge out in the Atlantic quite yet.It will be June and July don't you think that will show strength of the ridge.I will take this weather for now it is absolutly gorgeous here along the MGC.Nice to here you guys are still alive catch yea later.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Mon Apr 25 2005 02:46 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Animated Global SST Analysis
|
This link is to a Flash animation of the NOAA Global SST Analysis. You will need Flash or Shockwave to view. The page "should" be smart enough to direct you to this player if you need it.
The period covered is Jan 1, 2005 through Apr 23, 2005
Please let us know if there is value in this type of content.
Skeetobite Flash Animation
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Apr 25 2005 10:11 PM |
long island
|
do you guys think there is a chance of a hurricane hitting long island or anywhere up by jersey or boston or generally the northeast in general :confused:...please let me know by posting your thoughts..thanks a lott i appreciate it..ryan [color:red] [/color]
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Apr 25 2005 10:20 PM |
|
|
Re: long island
|
There is an elevated chance of a NE season this year, as HF mentioned in a previous post. The degree of amplitude in rosby waves now would surely allow a CV system to come up to LI; but will this pattern remain the same? There's a high chance, especially with a persistent negative SOI index. Also, NE years (hurricane's landfalling in the NE) usually follow year's of high Florida activity (check the archives at Unisys (sp))
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 04:14 AM |
|
Publicly available data
|
Pardon the slightly off-topic post, but it concerns the future of the field of meteorology in general and prediction of hazardous weather events on the federal level to a much greater extent.
For starters, please see this article from the Palm Beach Post:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/news/epaper/2005/04/21/m1a_wx_0421.html
Sen. Santorum of Pennsylvania has introduced legislation to effectively terminate the mission of the National Weather Service as a whole, reducing it to a data-mining agency for the private-sector. I'm all for private-sector competition, but there is no precedent in any field to eliminate a task of the government under pressure from the private sector; it is up to the private sector to provide a service the general public desires and will pay for, improving upon what is publically available, not to complain when they do not get their way.
As a meteorologist, I can tell you that this proposed legislation negatively impacts the field in every imaginable way, with the only benefits realized in the private sector's checkbooks. It affects everyone, from those at the top providing the service to local television meteorologists and their forecasts to the general public looking for a simple, accurate forecast. People fail to realize how much the government provides that even the private-sector companies cannot live without; they also fail to realize how much more accurate and precise the governmental forecasts are as opposed to those from the private sector. The impacts upon the academic sector -- the group that provides the greatest benefits to hazardous weather prediction and understanding, yet alone daily weather prediction, would be huge. Entire sectors of the academic sector would cease to exist, notably those that go towards improving these forecasts.
An accord can be reached between the two sides and is probably the best hope for getting anything productive accomplished in any future meteorological endeavors. This legislation is not the way to go about it. If you are interested, I urge you to contact Sen. Santorum with your thoughts as a member of the general public at http://santorum.senate.gov/public/; from there, click on Contact Information on the left sidebar and choose how you would wish to contact him. Contacting your own Senator/Congressman would not hurt either.
Mods -- please feel free to move this if necessary, as I understand that it is slightly off-topic. But, I felt the visibility would be greatest here and it is a topic that impacts a lot of what this site is built upon as well.
Thanks...
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 10:39 AM |
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
I hope that this bill does not pass even the commitee.If passed it will be the end of boards like this one and a monopoly of a private firm of all related to weather.
| Beaujolais |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 11:09 AM |
|
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
I hope the hell that doesn't pass for a vast number of reasons. They should not touch this at all. Once again they are over-stepping themselves and want to control yet something else. I do not even think that a petition against this matter would do any good. They can just kiss my butt!! I am going to hope beyond hope and pray immensley that this is not even considered at all any further than it has already!!
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 12:27 PM |
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
Great post Clark as always. Without that infro, I would have missed it all together and not been able to voice my opinion. Sen.Santorum will hear from me thats for sure as will my Florida State Senator and Congressman. Cycloneye and Beaujolaise I agree with you guys 100%. I would think that these elected officals up on the hill should be more concerned with other issues starting with protecting our children from predators and sex offenders in their states instead of screwing around with our weather information highway.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 03:04 PM |
|
Re: long island
|
that freaks me out man..what are the chances of a cat 1-2 and the chances of cat 3-5 hitting the island..im curious :confused: [color:blue] [/color] ..thanks..i apreciate it.ryan
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 03:31 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
i'm not moving it, clark. that's main board material.
i'm not worried for one, don't think the bill will pass. for one the article noted that it's too vague. people are too used to being able to get weather information for free.. the government historically has provided that. accuweather, twc and their like will just have to adapt and innovate.. even if their claims of the government undercutting their market are true. on the other hand, by limiting the free flow of information to the public from a service our tax dollars pay for, the nws/noaa role would seem redundant.
it's kind of ironic though... the position i'm taking is to favor the nws/noaa.. a division of the department of commerce.. to limit a private sector market. the thought is that the overall benefit is free, useful information that will promote economic security. charging money for things like that only benefits the people selling it... other markets that don't want to pay up will be at greater risk.
HF 1722z26april
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 03:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: long island
|
Quote:
that freaks me out man..what are the chances of a cat 1-2 and the chances of cat 3-5 hitting the island..im curious..thanks..i apreciate it.ryan
The water up here can only support a strong tropical storm (at the highest water temp) but's that not to say we can't get a strong hurricane. We have, and history will repeat itself. If a hurricane were to theoretically track up here, you would need one heck of a trof digging down into the east coast, or some other freak weather event. Also, by the time the storm would be up here there would have to be some extra tropical transition of some sort, unless it was racing up here at 60 mph, either way both situations are not good. So you can obviously deduce from this, that there is a much higher likelyhood of a a low intensity tropical feature coming up here then a strong one. The probabilities I do not know...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 05:40 PM |
|
|
Re: long island
|
i'm at home attm so i don't have proper access to all li hurricane data...i will post more on this later this afternoon...but as an fyi, and to further confrim keith's response, our water temps, even at peak in early/mid september, cannot support greater than a cat iv...that being said, li has never ever seen anything stronger than a cat iii...and that would be the 1938 li express...which was moving at 70 mph , the fastest ever forward moving hurricane...i iwill shoot you a link to the suny stony brook study on this when i get back to the office, which includes an awesome storm surge projection graphic
we do occasionally see cat i's and some rare cat ii's...
gloria '85 was our last cane
floyd '99 (i met cantore at point lookout during this one) was our last close brush
charley '04 did give us ts winds and the remnants of ivan, also '04, were no picnic either
bob '91 did a detour off the coast of montauk was a bad one, but spared us...
as far as probabilities...they are the same every year...slim to none...we're due for a cane about every 25 years but we could get two in one year and then none for 50 years
i'll do a detailed analysis of current conditions at some point in the next month which will analyze factors which could lead to a greater potential for landfall up in our area...
i'll also give you a "doomsday" scenario for nyc/li in which a cat ii or iii can sneak into ny harbor and flood the subways and close the bridges...
that's all for now...more when i get back to the office
| Paul |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 06:54 PM |
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
Yep.. This is a serious issue that we will have to confront again even if it does not pass.. Here is the link to all of the people on the senate committee for contact information.. Senator Nelson is clearly against the Bill..
http://commerce.senate.gov/about/membership.html
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 08:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
Office building, web address and telephone numbers
Ted Stevens - Alaska
http://stevens.senate.gov/
Hart 522 202-224-3004
John McCain - Arizona
http://mccain.senate.gov/
Russell 241 202-224-2235
Conrad Burns - Montana
http://burns.senate.gov/
Dirksen 187 202-224-2644
Trent Lott - Mississippi
http://lott.senate.gov/
Russell 487 202-224-6253
Kay Bailey Hutchison - Texas
http://hutchison.senate.gov/
Russell 284 202-224-5922
Olympia Snowe - Maine
http://snowe.senate.gov/
Russell 154 202-224-5344
Gordon Smith - Oregon
http://gsmith.senate.gov/
Russell 404 202-224-3753
John Ensign - Nevada
http://ensign.senate.gov/
Russell 364 202-224-6244
George Allen - Virginia
http://allen.senate.gov/
Russel 204 202-224-4024
Daniel K. Inouye - Hawaii
http://inouye.senate.gov/
Hart 722 202-224-3934
John D. Rockefeller IV - West Virginia
http://rockefeller.senate.gov/
Hart 531 202-224-6472
John F. Kerry - Massachussetts
http://kerry.senate.gov/
Russell 304 202-224-2742
Byron L. Dorgan - North Dakota
http://dorgan.senate.gov/
Hart 322 202-224-2551
Barbara Boxer - California
http://boxer.senate.gov/
Hart 112 202-224-3553
Bill Nelson - Florida
http://billnelson.senate.gov/
Hart 716 202-224-5274
Maria Cantwell - Washington
http://cantwell.senate.gov/
Hart 717 202-224-3441
Frank Lautenberg - New Jersey
http://Lautenberg.senate.gov/
Hart 324 202-224-3224
E. Benjamin Nelson - Nebraska
http://bennelson.senate.gov/
Hart 720 202-224-6551
Mark Pryor - Arkansas
http://pryor.senate.gov/
Russell 217 202-224-2353
John Sununu - New Hampshire
http://sununu.senate.gov/
Russell 111 202-224-2841
Jim DeMint - South Carolina
http://demint.senate.gov/
Hart 825 202-224-6121
David Vitter - Louisiana
http://vitter.senate.gov/
Hart 825A 202-224-4623
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 08:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
The following is the text I sent to all members of the U.S. Senate Comittee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. Feel free to copy and edit this content.
Remember, taking a position is meaningless unless you also make a stand. Action is what makes a difference
-------------------
Reference: S.786
Location: U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation
Sponsor: Senator Santorum
No vote vigorously urged.
Dear Senator,
Be advised that I am very angry that a bill has been sent to this committee seeking to diminish the capabilities of the National Weather Service. This is a critical service that electronically feeds many commercial and free weather sites around the nation with important and in many cases, life saving information. Seeking to reduce these capabilities for the sake of commerce is unacceptable by any measure. My tax dollars already pay for the collection and dissemination of this data. Forcing me to pay twice; once via taxation and again via commerce is unfair and un-American.
As a weather enthusiast, my experience has revealed the NWS to be the most accurate of weather data available to me. This is especially true considering the eye of three hurricanes crossed just 14 miles south of my home last year. As you are aware, approximately 20% of the homes and other structures in our fine state of Florida were damaged by these storms. Should we tell these people that when danger is approaching, the only way to get critical updates and forecasts is to pay for cable television or a subscription to AccuWeather?
I am aware that AccuWeather is a constituent of Senator Santorum. I am also aware that AccuWeather uses the same government supplied data that I do to prepare their forecasts. How is it even logical to allow any or several corporate entities to have exclusive access to data that “we the people" pay for, so they can turn around and sell this data back to “the people”?
I urge a NO vote on S.786.
Jonathon Grant
Lakeland, FL
-----------------------------------------
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Apr 26 2005 10:51 PM |
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
Very good idea Skeetobite. However, I agree with Hank...the bill will never reach the light of day. I wonder how much $$ Mr. Santorum received from his constituent, Accuweather.com to propose this legislation. Please see link:
http://opensecrets.org/indivs/search.asp...4=Y&Order=N
I will say this...I will no longer be using the services of Accuweather ever again. I was always suspicious last year and years before as to why Joe B. and his organization would rip the NWS and TPC on their forecasts...and now I know why. Unfortunately, with MANY other issues this is how our government operates and like it or not that will not change unless they get caught in the act. Can you say Quid pro Quo? oh and it's good to be back everyone! That's my rant for the year. done.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Apr 28 2005 10:46 AM |
|
Re:Florida Hits
|
I was over at S2k and came across this by WXMAN57.I brought up in an early post about the warmer SST's in the MDR region.I believe this is going to lead to some long trackers once the season really starts to rap up.Will heres the link
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florida/
http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/Images/naominus.gif
I added these other two sites to for some of the newbies to maybe learn a little more as I have this off sesson or am tring to.
http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/Images/naoplus.gif
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Apr 29 2005 10:08 PM |
|
Re:Florida Hits
|
Excellent recourses, Javlin. I recommend everyone who lives in Florida to take a look at this.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Apr 29 2005 10:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re:Florida Hits
|
Thanks Javlin! That was a great article for the less educated of us!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Apr 30 2005 03:16 PM |
|
|
|
2010 list
|
The WMO has made their decisions on which names from 2004 are going out. As expected, the four strong hurricanes that hit the US last year have had their names retired. Colin has replaced Charley, Fiona has replaced Frances, Igor replaces Ivan, and Julia replaces Jeanne.
HF 1706z30april
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun May 01 2005 03:32 PM |
|
Re:Florida Hits
|
Man, interesting spin at 30N/60W for this time of year.........things to come??
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun May 01 2005 03:38 PM |
|
Signs of things to come
|
Take a look in the Gulf this morning....that MCS from yesterday is hanging tough. If this were June 1 instead of May1 (or even if it were May 15??)...
MM
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun May 01 2005 05:16 PM |
|
Re: Signs of things to come
|
Wow,May !st and things are heating up in that area. May be an early surprise in the big bend area later in this month? We`ll have to watch and see....Weatherchef web page
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun May 01 2005 10:39 PM |
|
Can you believe it? Less than a month for season to start
|
Wow how time has gone by and now we are on the virge of another season.What it will bring is the key question.We must prepare from now to then avoid the last minute rush.Let's prepare for the worse but hope for the best.Good luck to everyone during the 2005 season.I will be watching things to my east as I live in Puerto Rico hoping that all the Cape Verde systems go away from the caribbean.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun May 01 2005 10:44 PM |
|
Re: Can you believe it? Less than a month for season to start
|
Does seem like a short rest...
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 02 2005 01:01 PM |
|
Re: Can you believe it? Less than a month for season to start
|
Well Cycloneye, it looks like your going to be our designated foward observer for CFHC down there in the islands this year. Your island and the Virgin islands will be first in line for the U.S. if any thing happens when the Cape Verdes start up, which we know it will, its just a matter of when and where.......Good luck from us mainlanders....Weatherchef
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon May 02 2005 01:54 PM |
|
|
|
'tis the season... before the season
|
around this time of year low pressure areas in the tropics and subtropics that linger or meander cut off from the westerlies start to illicit the first shreds of suspicion. at least the global models start to do things with them that don't look very winter-like. i'm in no way implying that either of these features are real development candidates, just front-runners of the transition into a summer pattern.
gfs has a storm blowing up on the subtropical jet near florida late in the week, then being blocked by a high in the northeast and stalling for a couple of days off the east coast. it's a noreaster that can't find it's way north, essentially. the upper flow around the subtropical jet, save in the shelter zone under the system's associated upper low, won't let anything develop. just a coastal low.
gfs has a large area of storminess in the caribbean next week--late in the week a low emerges from the mess and rides across cuba and the bahamas, then phases in with an upper trough in the western atlantic. tropical source region for sure. it's too early, but the models are giving us our first chances to wave monger for 2005. in four weeks or so features of the same ilk will have more significant chances of becoming something.
HF 1544z02may
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon May 02 2005 03:31 PM |
|
Re:Subtropical low off S.C.?
|
Well it looks to me to be a very bad hurricane season.Florida looks to be under the gun again.I think Miami and Ft Lauderdale's luck may have run out.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon May 02 2005 03:46 PM |
|
Re: 'tis the season... before the season
|
The low that went across SW Florida Sunday 5/1 really deepened quickly and the wind around it gusted at 40+. If this were mid-summer we had something on our hands. It was interesting though.
Not too much discussion here about the work coming out of tropicalstormrisk.com and the study they publihed this winter. I actually read it last week; published in April 21, 2005 issue of Nature. They are posting some very significant statistical support for their models which essentially sample the trades and SST's in July, and then make a firm prediction for the heart of the season in the first few days of August.
Their first forecast for 2005 however, based on data through March was not too encouraging here: 14/8/4. The August forecast would be more likely to focus on landfall as that is their business, insurance losses. Last year they won awards for their work. check it all out for yourselves at: tropicalstormrisk.com.
Doug
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon May 02 2005 06:45 PM |
|
Re: Can you believe it? Less than a month for season to start
|
Thank you for those words.I hope that nothing occurs in the islands but I am ready and prepared for anything.
| mojorox |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue May 03 2005 05:20 AM |
|
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
Skeeto I sent a letter last week. I was furious that they would even consider doing this.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue May 03 2005 06:19 PM |
|
South Atlantic development?
|
Want another early start to the season? Looks like we might have a subtropical cyclone on our hands...in the southern hemisphere.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05050306/10.html
Water temps are about 24-25 C in the vicinity of the storm, as with last year's "Catarina," but the upper level temperatures are likely cold enough to support some sort of development. The system currently is located near 32 S, 24 W, with it projected to sort of just spin in place. It is still attached to some sort of frontal-type boundary to the east, but the connection between the two has appeared to weaken a bit recently.
Satellite: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html, click on the cyclone in the lower right.
I can't find my upper-air charts for the S. Atlantic, nor can I make them on the fly right now, but water vapor imagery shows a ridge just to the west. If the system can transition down to the surface, we might see something (likely subtropical). I'd like to take a look at the models if I had the time -- see what the temperature values are in that region, see what's going on at the surface in terms of vorticity (or as the Weather Channel is fond of calling it, spin), and see what the moisture is in the midlevels (though WV shows there to be some) -- but alas, I don't. I heard from someone that one of the agencies put out a satellite estimate (not the one available to the public on NOAA's SSD webpage) of ST2.5/2.5 on the system -- a healthy subtropical cyclone.
(Edit: the Dvorak classification is available on the webpage now -- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html -- listed in the top list as 90L, South Atlantic)
QuikSCAT imagery: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/hires/, click on the ascending pass near 32 S, 24 W. Strong winds are found near the center, mainly 30-35kt. Winds are weak on the southeast side, likely a function of the previous frontal nature, but may fill in with time. Note that the current image I've got is near 0800 UTC today, or about 12 hours old.
(Edit: the latest descending pass caught it, too, showing a further disconnect from the trough that it was once associated with it. Click on the storm on the second image on the above page, instead of the first image, to see it. This later one is from 1900 UTC -- or about 3p ET.)
Probably just another interesting thing to look at, like the system a couple weeks back, and one out in the central Atlantic near 30 N now, but still...it's May, so it's better than nothing.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue May 03 2005 11:24 PM |
|
|
|
Re: South Atlantic development?
|
nah, don't think that one will make the transition, clark. it's the equivalent of november down there now anyway.
i was reading the cpc discussion 6-10 day discussion this morning, yesterday's that is... they've noticed some of the same things pertaining to the suggested caribbean disturbance. today's discussion is much the same deal. should at least be something interesting to look at late next week/weekend.
SOI went positive sunday for the first time in a while, but has gone back to near neutral. we'll need more of that if we're to get out of weak ENSO, or preclude it strengthening. i'm not that certain, but still thinking we won't get more than a skeleton of an el nino signature this season. might hew something off the wacky high numbers at the end of the month in any case.
HF 0114z04may
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue May 03 2005 11:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: South Atlantic development?
|
sigh...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 04 2005 12:24 AM |
|
Re: South Atlantic development?
|
HF - oh, me neither, but it's something to keep the wave-mongers amongst us (yes, I'll admit to doing some of it from time to time too) appeased until things really get going. I was surprised to see it come across the tropical-storms mailing list (it's a mailing list of academic & operational people in tropical meteorology) myself, but lo and behold, there's something out there. It's probably too far east to do anything -- last year's storm was much closer to the coast and in a less progressive pattern.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 04 2005 10:48 AM |
|
Re: South Atlantic development?
|
Hey Lysis, looks like a nice little flareup down in your neighborhood......Weatherchef........... [image]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html[/image]
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed May 04 2005 12:42 PM |
|
|
|
Re: South Atlantic development?
|
there's actually a good burst of convection near the core of that south atlantic feature this morning.. but the cold air stratocumulus along the occuluded front remnant from its earlier life are still arcing into one of it's quadrants. it's secluded, but maybe not secluded enough.
forecast here for the rest of the week sucks. i very much doubt that the system forecast to trudge through the southeast and over the gulfstream will try to look overtly hybrid... the forecast highs here thursday/friday are in the 60s from wedging. it's been cool all spring, so nothing new. run-to-run the gfs keeps taking that caribbean feature for next week/the following week further east. it's still far out... consistent in runs, but sketchy in terms of details. still more than you'd expect in early may, but the 'probably nothing' factor is high on this one.
HF 1431z04may
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 04 2005 02:48 PM |
|
Re: South Atlantic development?
|
I would like peoples opinon on where they think a cat 3 or higher storm will hit in the U.S.?Pick a city type of thing.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed May 04 2005 09:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: South Atlantic development?
|
If it means anything to you, Gray said something like 73% in his April forcast . Numbers for the US east coast were around 50%.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 05 2005 01:12 AM |
|
Re: South Atlantic development?
|
Come on guys pick a city in the U.S. that you think will get hit.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 05 2005 02:18 AM |
|
Re: South Atlantic development?
|
Impossible to do how would one back there claim?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu May 05 2005 03:10 AM |
|
|
|
pick a city
|
Walla Walla, WA. Scottsbluff, NE is a close second. Want some lucky lottery numbers now? C'mon, that's not what we do here.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 05 2005 04:18 AM |
|
Re: pick a city
|
Thanks HF I was going to say secondly season members of this forum don't play that game.Thks for the backup.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 05 2005 11:28 AM |
|
Re: pick a city
|
Gosh darn guys, I was way off. I thought Fairbanks Alaska was a dead ringer. H.F. and Jav, keep up the good work. Its not hard to put a finger on the true weather pros.........Weatherchef
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu May 05 2005 12:25 PM |
|
|
|
Re: pick a city
|
nothing personal. i don't see what purpose it serves. it can't be predicted with any skill... i could make a better statistical guess by saying it won't rain here on october 26th. there's like better than 80% on that. but it's way outside realistic range for forecasting. for hurricanes in any given season, nowhere on the u.s. coast is there more than a single digit percentage chance of a direct hit. ever. so why sit around and contemplate who loses their roof this summer when there's no use in it? go read the farmers almanac if you want that.
HF 1414z05may
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 05 2005 04:15 PM |
|
Re: pick a city
|
HF, I hope you know that I was just joking about Fairbanks. I agree with you 100%.
I know. I did the same thing. -HF
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu May 05 2005 06:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: pick a city
|
Mobridge, South Dakota.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu May 05 2005 06:57 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: pick a city
|
...
EDIT: Hey, ftlaudbob, don't take it personally... but some of us are still recovering from our own major hits last summer, and playing this kind of guessing game (which, unfortunately, is all that this amounts to right now) is kind of fruitless. While we --cough-the media-cough-- all tend to play name games with the big cities, it is usually the more obscure towns that get hit (ie, Homestead, Punta Gorda, etc). No hard feelings, and just take it easy, all right?
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 05 2005 07:29 PM |
|
Re: pick a city
|
Fantastic picture Lysis, I was having a bad day until I saw this.Good job, good laugh,and true, we too are still trying to get things in order and back together here in Brevard after last years double hit before season starts....Has it stopped raining down your way yet?.......Weatherchef
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu May 05 2005 07:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: pick a city
|
Heh, I am glad you liked the pic. Rain has ceased for the immediate moment, and high pressure will move over the state by weeks end. Still chances for a thunder-boomer (quite the scientific vernacular here, eh?) tonight and into tomorrow, but nothing like yesterday now that this unflinching front has been kicked out of town.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 05 2005 07:59 PM |
|
|
forecast
|
Back after a long break
Time for my prediction:
16 storms
8 hurricanes
4 major
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 05 2005 08:27 PM |
|
Re: forecast
|
Lets roll...That system over the South Atlatnic looks darn good. But was not given any respect.
I forecast
15 named storms
8 hurricanes
5 maj
2 landfalls of hurricanes
3 landfalls of tropical storms
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 05 2005 09:05 PM |
|
|
Re: forecast
|
It's not quite pulling numbers out of a hat, but it's close
here are my thoughts:I think the current trend of relatively above average SST's will continue for the summer months. Enhancing any storms that make it to hurricane status.. With neutral conditions otherwise, I think we're going to see the following breakdown:
18 Depressions
14 Tropical Storms and 2 Subtropical Storms (16 total)
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes
Ok now why these numbers?
let's look at the last few years:
Cat 04 03 02 01 00
TS 15 16 13 15 15
HC 09 07 04 09 08
So I'm fully expecting about the same TS/ST development. I'm also expecting anything that gets going will have a generally neutral development but with warm SST's will still be able to ramp up to a minimal hurricane (ergo, the high number of hurricanes projected). I also expect the hurricanes to have enough warm ocean water to reach major hurricane status about half the time. So, it'll be busy, I really expect to see one Subtropical storm at the start of the season and one at the end of the season. That's also symptomatic of both warmer SST's in colder weather, leading to hybrid/transitional systems, as well as better understanding and diagnosis of when a storm is a Subtropical system. My gut is also telling me that 6 Major hurricanes seems high, but Last year there was 5, and it seems viable to have one more.
Take care and I'll be wishcasting for all fishspinners and a lot of fireworks but no damage.
-Mark
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 06 2005 05:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: forecast
|
subtropical storm?
by the way, if anyone is wondering, my new avatar is Daggett from Angry Beavers
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 06 2005 07:15 PM |
|
SW Carib??
|
Hmmmm
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 06 2005 11:59 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 'tis the season... before the season
|
Quote:
gfs has a storm blowing up on the subtropical jet near florida late in the week, then being blocked by a high in the northeast and stalling for a couple of days off the east coast. it's a noreaster that can't find it's way north, essentially. the upper flow around the subtropical jet, save in the shelter zone under the system's associated upper low, won't let anything develop. just a coastal low.
gfs has a large area of storminess in the caribbean next week--late in the week a low emerges from the mess and rides across cuba and the bahamas, then phases in with an upper trough in the western atlantic. tropical source region for sure. it's too early, but the models are giving us our first chances to wave monger for 2005. in four weeks or so features of the same ilk will have more significant chances of becoming something.
HF 1544z02may
HF, looks like the GFS got the want-to-be Noreaster right. You guys getting a heavy rain for the second or third day in a row. If the GFS was this good with the tropical systems, forecasting landfall locations would be a lot easier.
I wonder if the extra data that they feed into the models during Hurricane season is part of what is throwing the model forecasts off.
Just an observation from the back row.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat May 07 2005 05:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 'tis the season... before the season
|
could we have a subtropical depression or storm by day's end?
IR loop
VIS loop
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat May 07 2005 06:31 PM |
Re: 'tis the season... before the season
|
Wow. That doe's looks like it has developed a more tropical core. It appears to be alot like the perfect storm.
Remember systems like this can develop a extratropical overall. But develop tropical center. We need more data. The nhc would never upgrade this because of the cold core/extratropical part. They did not even upgrade the unknown hurricane of 1991.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat May 07 2005 10:17 PM |
|
|
|
the system that SHOULD be 90L but isn't
|
ok, looking at the latest satellite images, i see that the New England low now has what appears to be an eye forming and I have to say that we now have the second subtropical storm of the year that NHC refuses to upgrade
unclassified subtropical storm
this looks better defined than even Gabrielle in 2001 did, and that was a hurricane
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat May 07 2005 10:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: the system that SHOULD be 90L but isn't
|
I personally do not think they need to divert there attention because of this storm...it's just like any other gale center that we see off of New England. Strong winds, nice satellite presentation, blah, blah. Don't get me wrong, it's a very potent system but it seems that everytime we get a coastal storm on the gulf stream it's a subtropical storm...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat May 07 2005 11:35 PM |
|
Re: the system that SHOULD be 90L but isn't
|
Thats where your wrong my frined. A gale center is a cold core system. This is a Special kind of tropical cyclone/subtropical system. This is a 1991 unnamed storm like storm. It has a cold/extratropical outside with a hurricane in the middle. But we will never know because it is now moving out of the Gulf stream.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat May 07 2005 11:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: the system that SHOULD be 90L but isn't
|
Quote:
Thats where your wrong my frined. A gale center is a cold core system. This is a Special kind of tropical cyclone/subtropical system. This is a 1991 unnamed storm like storm. It has a cold/extratropical outside with a hurricane in the middle. But we will never know because it is now moving out of the Gulf stream.
I know what the obi wan effect (tm JB) is...What I'm trying to say is every storm is not the perfect storm...did this storm have reports of 100 foot waves? Was this system orginally a hurricane? Is there widespread major flooding? Was there a movie made about it?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat May 07 2005 11:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: New England Low Pressure System
|
This article may help you decide what to call the Low off the New England Coast.
..."James Franklin of TPC/NHC pointed out the obvious but sometimes troublesome fact that there are no well-defined boundaries between cyclone types. With regard to energy sources, cyclones come in a continuous spectrum, but forecasters (at least at NHC) have to pigeonhole them into three categories: tropical, subtropical, or non-tropical (extratropical). In deciding whether a particular storm is tropical or subtropical, James indicates that he would first look at the structure of the wind field. If the highest winds appear to be the result of central core convection, then it would be tropical. If they result from synoptic-scale gradients or forcing, then the system would be subtropical. Thermal structure is also important, but the data to definitively answer that question is often not available. (NOTE: It should be pointed out that, while in some circles the terms subtropical and hybrid are often used synonymously, this tends to not often be the case at NHC. Since its inception in public warning terminology in 1972, the term "subtropical storm" has become increasingly restricted in its application to hybrid-type marine cyclones. In other words, a subtropical cyclone is a hybrid between classical extratropical and tropical cyclones, but not all hybrids are considered subtropical storms.)
Jack Beven, also of NHC, states that he considers three main characteristics in deciding whether or not a given system is tropical or subtropical: satellite appearance, amount and behaviour of central convection, and any available information on how frontal a system is. He admits that all three are rather subjective quantities. Chris Landsea of AOML/HRD feels that a tropical cyclone should be called such when there is convection near or over the center of the system (within about one degree of latitude/longitude), it is warm core in the lower troposphere, is non-frontal, and has a relatively small radius of maximum winds (smaller than about 2.5 degrees of latitude/longitude).
David Roth of HPC feels that for classification as a tropical cyclone, a system should have no large dry slots, no cold fronts or stratus clouds, and should have deep central convection. In David's opinion, the (usually) small cyclones sometimes seen in the Atlantic (and also often in the Mozambique Channel) which may contain eye features but have shallow convection and shallow warm cores with cold cores aloft should be classed as subtropical rather than as tropical cyclones.
Commenting also on the topic of classification of tropical cyclones, Rich Henning, a meteorologist at Eglin AFB and a member of the Hurricane Hunters squadron, suggested that perhaps there should be a sliding scale based on the latitude of the system and the time of year.
Rich writes, "For example, for a system at a high latitude in November, there had better be a burst of deep convection at or near the center of the vortex that creates some evidence of a warm core and the establishment of a tighter pressure gradient near the center that can be traced to the convective event, i.e., that can be distinguished from the larger-scale mid-latitude cyclone gradient in which it may be embedded. For lower latitudes and/or when formation is from July to October, this may not be as strictly enforced, especially when cyclogenesis occurs over water that is warmer than or equal to 26.5 C. For cooler water temperatures, I am always skeptical about a system in the absence of deep, persistent convection at or near the vortex core."...
http://mpittweather.com/txt/jun01sum.txt
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/iwtc/Evans4-3.html
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun May 08 2005 12:06 AM |
|
|
|
Re: New England Low Pressure System
|
Excellent link danny. Definitely have to bookmark this one...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun May 08 2005 03:42 AM |
this seasons most lucky area
|
what do you guys think will be this seasons most unlucky place...by un lucky i affected the worst....i think its a carolinas year...let me knwo...Ryann :D
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun May 08 2005 12:13 PM |
|
Re: this seasons most lucky area
|
Ryan, no one can accurately predict where the worst tropical weather will happen with any certainty this year. I think that we on the East coast, those on the Gulf coast and Caribbean are all in the same boat. We all have the same chance. You mentioned the Carolinas, I`m on business right now up in Charleston and they still talk about" Hugo" to this day and down where I live in Brevard County Florida we are still realing from last years devasation. I think that everybody in the three areas that I mentioned should be prepared just in case there " luck" runs out..Weatherchef
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun May 08 2005 01:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: New England Low Pressure System
|
I think this picture proves it in this thread...
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=46782
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon May 09 2005 03:45 AM |
|
Re: the system that SHOULD be 90L but isn't
|
The cyclone phase analyses from the available models all suggest a shallow warm-core with the system, or more or less your typical secluded-type of structure. You don't see it all too often along the east coast of the U.S. -- you see it a lot more south of Greenland -- but on occasion, you can see what we've got out there right now. Nothing tropical or even subtropical about it, just something nice to look at.
Current as of this evening: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/compare/05050818/M4.html; see http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ for future runs. As an aside, the cyclone phase diagrams were developed initially based upon comments made by Jack Beven, who is a big followed of the hybrid storms (for what it's worth), about the thermal structure of tropical vs. extratropical cyclones.
SSTs in the region are <20 C (not favorable for tropical/subtropical development) and the system is definitely still frontal in nature; one good look at satellite confirms this; the South Atlantic system last week at least was somewhat separated from its old frontal structure before it was completely overtaken by an onslaught of cold air from the south. An upper-level low wrapped around the North Atlantic system yesterday, enhancing the upper level circulation; the fact that it has sat right along the boundary of the Gulf Stream & the colder waters north of it has enhanced the available surface energy for the system. The acquisition of the low-level warm core either came about as a natural progression of the storm into the seclusion phase (which isn't well understood yet) or out of convective warming near the core of the system. The upper-levels, however, are still cold-core, one of the first indicators that the system isn't nearly tropical.
Polar lows often times can have eye-like features associated with them, and do note that by definition, the wind at the center of a low pressure system should be near zero...so those two features alone do not give you a tropical cyclone.
Wind field: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas86.png. Note the overall expanse of the circulation and the large swath over which the maximum winds cover. This is neither indicative of a tropical (relatively compact wind field, strongest winds confined to a very narrow band near the center & rapidly dropping off outward from there) or subtropical (similar to tropical but with a looser definition, namely slightly larger expanses) cyclone structure. Other adjacent images suggest frontal structures still associated with the system.
In a few words, pretty to look at but nothing compared to what we'll see in a month or two. As an aside, Atlantic SSTs are running 1 deg C (or greater) above normal east of Hispaniola, with SST anomalies of 3 deg C above normal just off of the coast of Africa. The 26 C isothem sits at 15 N at < 40 W and 20 N from 45 W on westward. The coolest locations are off of both shores of Florida, where we have seen a cooler-than-normal spring. These are the shallowest waters, however, and can warm up in a hurry from where they sit now. All of this portends what *may* be an early start to the deep Atlantic tropical season (though, admittedly, a slow start to the near-shore season).
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 09 2005 11:22 AM |
|
Re: this seasons most lucky area
|
Good 2005 season to every one. To Reply to Ryan's question about unlucky landfalls:
The weather pattern over Central Florida is eerily consistent with weather systems dropping into Tampa Bay this spring after leaving the Coast of Texas or riding up from Mexico. IF and only IF this pattern continues, the Tampa Bay area is a sitting duck for a Tropical Storm/Hurricane this season which of course puts the Carolina Coast in the way for the leftovers that tend to get over the Gulf stream and Blow up into something monstrous. The momentum of these past few storms with gale force winds and above have given Central Florida a taste of tornados and has retraumatized some who had just managed to get a roof over their heads again. It is not going to be a fun time around here if the pattern does not change soon.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon May 09 2005 04:50 PM |
|
Re: this seasons most lucky area
|
Dear 'grouper:
I'm uncomfortable for our area just because the west Florida coast north of Charolette and south of Cedar Key has not been hit directly by anything significant since 1951-2 (Easy)...tropical storms and glancing blows otherwise...not good odds.
14/8/4
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon May 09 2005 07:47 PM |
|
|
anyone notice the GOM SST's?
|
have to say it's the warmest sst's i have seen in years for the month of april and may.....nice warm little eddy coming up off the yucatan to south of mississippi.... could this be a sign that anything forming in gom in the next month or two might have a better chance than last year?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon May 09 2005 08:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: anyone notice the GOM SST's?
|
Quote:
have to say it's the warmest sst's i have seen in years for the month of april and may.....nice warm little eddy coming up off the yucatan to south of mississippi.... could this be a sign that anything forming in gom in the next month or two might have a better chance than last year?
Yes, I noticed that eddy of water too...seems to be in the same exact path that hurricane ivan took.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue May 10 2005 12:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: anyone notice the GOM SST's?
|
Well, that is just great, Keith.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 10 2005 01:37 AM |
|
Re: anyone notice the GOM SST's?
|
If you believe in odds,Miami and Ft Lauderdale stand a real good chance at a bad one.I did see a website that puts miami/lauderdale #1.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 10 2005 02:22 PM |
|
Re: anyone notice the GOM SST's?
|
I believe that we who live on the southern east coast and those who live on the Gulf coast have a higher chance of being impacted by a tropical system than those who live on the northern east coast of the U.S. this year again. But who knows, the odds may favor us down here, but until mother nature rolls the dice, we won`t know who the winners are and who the losers are until the dice stops rolling and the game is over...........Word to the wise, don`t gamble.....Be prepared...Weatherchef
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue May 10 2005 02:27 PM |
|
|
|
Re: anyone notice the GOM SST's?
|
the SSTs in the gulf are cooler than normal in most places. the warm patch near the mouth of the mississippi probably has something to do with discharge into the gulf.. not sure of that. but in general the gulf isn't running warm at all. right now the tropics of the north atlantic and the east atlantic near the canaries are running warm.. much of the northwest atlantic (esp. the shelf waters) and gulf are running cool. these areas are likely to warm significantly as summer comes on, though. noteworthy fact that the immediate coastal waters on much of the atlantic seaboard (esp. ne-fl to hatteras) have been running cooler than normal in recent summers.
as for miami ft lauderdale being at greater risk.. they are always at higher statistical risk than much of the rest of the u.s. coast.. that's a given. is it likely they will be singled out this year? probably not.
the coastal storm from late last week is completely occluded and is moving SE near bermuda right now. the spotty convection near the core is gone, but it is rotating around the tail of the larger upper trough that it earlier tracked into. as secluded as it has become, convection redeveloping near the center would likely indicate subtropical transition.. not happening right now, but an slim possibility exists (it wasn't supposed to drift as far south as it has).
models that were earlier creating mess in the caribbean and tracking it north/northeastward into the western atlantic still making the same suggestion. gfs has a storm over the weekend/early next week that looks very interesting... behavior looks like a variation of the systems the model has been mumbling about for about a week now. watch the caribbean late this week, it may try to cough something up like it did last year. we came very close to getting a may storm in 2004, this year might end up giving us something similar to watch.
HF 1615z10may
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue May 10 2005 03:29 PM |
|
Re: Carribean this week
|
Greetings:
If any thing grows up down there it will have to be in the NW portion...seems to me too much westerly shear in the southern latitudes...
GOM temps are getting at or near 80 this week near the coast. EDS,
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 10 2005 03:49 PM |
|
|
Re: Carribean this week
|
And so the season may begin with a bang afterall.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue May 10 2005 07:40 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carribean this week
|
Not as if anything I have to say bears credence, I would like to physically reinforce the notion that temps are a bit cooler in and around the gulf coast ---and the sharks know it. As told by our boats onboard instruments the waters are only now peaking at about 77 degrees daily. Of course every day it is getting warmer. Just last month it was barely making it over 70. As an effect, the sharks have not moved into the harbor as early as usual. The waters are actually bountiful at this time, as the canes churned up all the mud which somehow leads to an increase in fish population (don't ask me how). I can surly attest the fish are definitely bigger and there are more of them this spring. The 40 inch snook we caught last night is proof of this
.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 10 2005 08:33 PM |
|
Re: Carribean this week
|
Hmm..satpics this afternoon make it look like there is a tropical cyclone...over N. GA!
Convection holding on and moving NW from the SW Carib...hmmm
Hybrid maybe developing out by Bermuda...?
and..what is that wave form NE of PR??
Awfully busy for early May.....
MM
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue May 10 2005 10:58 PM |
|
Re: anyone notice the GOM SST's?
|
The few models I've looked at are consistent in building in a ridge over the western Caribbean from the west late in the period, e.g. 5-7 days. Anything that gets above 20 N would get destroyed by shear, assuming it were tropical in nature; best bet is still on something non-tropical. But, with warm SSTs and a potentially favorable upper-level wind & vertical shear pattern, you never know. Moisture looks to be sufficient and, as HF noted, the models (to varying degrees) want to spin up something out there...so it bears watching. For those who remember last year's Caribbean system that moved over Hispaniola, as HF noted, that's probably a good situation to compare this to.
Nothing out there really bears watching; shear is just way too high over the entire basin right now. The secluded/occluded low near Bermuda lacks convection and is too far removed from the Gulf Stream to be near warm waters. That is the one location in the basin where shear is low, but that's a feature of the vertically-stacked low pressure system there and not favorable upper-level conditions. It should eventually get kicked out towards the NE and merge with another system in a few days...assuming it lasts that long. None of the globals want to do anything with the upper low over the Carolinas right now; most of them drop it slowly south off of the Georgia/Florida coast and then have it picked up by the subtropical jet. See no reason to think otherwise there right now.
It's kind of a weird pattern out there right now in the mid-latitudes. Alaska has been warm, warm, warm lately -- near 70 in the interior and along the southeast coast for 2+ weeks -- and the associated upper-level ridge that far north has kept things from amplifying to a large degree here. This is partially due to the continual rebuilding of a trough in the western U.S., somewhat akin to a blocking scenario and keeping us from changing things up. The low near Bermuda brought some raw weather to the NE, but nothing out of the ordinary; it hasn't moved because nothing else is there to kick it yet. That should change as the Aleutian high weakens slightly and a system rides over it and drops into the east in about 3 days (first surge offshore). The trough in the east is the culprit which could bring the subtropical jet towards the north in the SE US and result in a more favorable regime in the western Caribbean, but not for about another 5 days (the ridge over the east should build as the trough first amplifies offshore; later, the trough should then amplify to the west)...so it will be interesting to see how it all pans out. Needless to say though, seeing as it's mid-May, I still wouldn't get my hopes up, but it's worth watching.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu May 12 2005 02:44 AM |
|
Two and a half days...
|
The models are coming into a bit better alignment as to what may happen in the SW Caribbean today. Shear is trying to relax over the region, but it's still pretty high north of 10 N. The models continue to build a ridge over the region in about 2 days from the EPac, partially a response to the subtropical jet moving ever-so-slightly northward and partially a response to a weakening of its southern periphery; this is absolutely critical for us to see anything of interest in the Caribbean this week...at least tropical.
The models have also come into better alignment as to the thermodynamic structure of a system, were it to develop. Both the GFS and the Air Force MM5 call for a warm-core structure, the depth of which is still up in the air. This is a gradual trend towards a warm-core structure, meaning if it continues, we could see something forecast to be tropical. SSTs are certainly warm enough up until you cross Cuba, and moisture shouldn't be a problem across the region. The UKMET and NOGAPS also call for some sort of development, but I'd like to see the next (00Z) runs before writing much about them. Our run of the MM5 here from last night hinted at a rather good sized cyclone developing; unfortunately, it only goes out to about 4 days because someone (okay, myself) shut off the computer it was running on before it finished. Whoops; we'll get a new run by morning, however. Anyway, it spun up a rather small circulation off of the Honduran coast with a min. pressure of around 992mb (and something slightly stronger in the EPac, too, to kick off their season). We'll see if that lasts.
Needless to say, this could be our first real "threat" of the year. However, anything that develops -- assuming it does -- will either move slowly onshore in Cent. America and weaken or move across Cuba and into the Atlantic as it gets picked up by the jet & a midlatitude trough. Shouldn't be a threat at all to the US mainland. It's a candidate (assuming it starts out tropical) to undergo extratropical transition at a pretty low latitude, somewhere between 20-25°N. Max. potential intensity (MPI) maps are in the cat. 3 range, which this storm would never achieve, but it still hints that conditions are favorable for something to potentially develop.
I'd say it's got more of a chance now than it did a day ago, but not necessarily a great chance. Convection has persisted in the area, which is a good thing, and you can (and occasionally do) see TCs develop along the end of old boundaries, which is sort of where this lies right now. QuikSCAT isn't going to be much help, as that is traditionally one of the areas where data are lacking. Needless to say...something to watch for those ready for another season.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu May 12 2005 04:58 AM |
|
|
|
further out
|
the globals right now have an axis of disturbed weather extending ene from honduras to east of bermuda, and are developing low pressure going into the weekend and next week at various places along the axis. if evolution is to take place over the next 3-4 days, it would have to be deep in the caribbean for any system to get past minimal storm intensity--shear gradient to the north will be sharp--if a system were to start away from it the effect would be enhanced outflow for a while, nearby the effect would be strong sw shear and rapid NE movement. the runs at 00z are favoring a system closer to the islands jetting rapidly ENE.
mentioning the upcoming feature of interest a few days ago panned out fairly well, so i'll roll with it and add that gfs wants to create another system out past 10 days in the western caribbean.. or at least it has the last couple of runs. the system in this later case moves more poleward. of course getting two tropical systems in may is completely outlandish and i'd still hesitate to say either has much chance to develop from this juncture.
HF 0646z12may
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu May 12 2005 05:04 PM |
|
|
|
the look
|
the disturbed weather in the western caribbean is getting a more defined look. i wouldn't be surprised if nrl puts an invest up on it within 24 hours, down near panama/nicaragua. if a system is going to evolve down there, it should still take at least 2-3 days to get organized. the fact that it's may 12th notwithstanding.
HF 1850z12may
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 12 2005 05:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: the look
|
I wouldn't believe it was still May, but check out the outflow from this organizing system, if I can call it that..
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu May 12 2005 05:30 PM |
|
Landfall forecast update
|
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Forecast/Images/LANDFALLMAY05.gif
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Forecast/Images/FORMATIONMAY05.gif
Very interesting forecast from hurricane alley.It highlights the Texas coast as a high risk area.Where I am Puerto Rico is included at the red zone.Now let's see if all of this pans out but they have a good record in the past in terms of landfalling forecasts.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu May 12 2005 05:42 PM |
|
|
Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Hello all CFHCers,
I have been quite sick and spent the last week in the hospital, during which time I had to do a lot of soul searching and will be making several lifestyle changes necessary to keep me living for many more years. This is what happens when you refuse to see a doctor of any kind for 20 years...and you live a lifestyle that is, shall we say, akin to Keith Richards minus the drugs. All I can say is that had i not been to see a doctor 1 week and a half ago, i probably would have been dead before hurricane season ended. That being said, while still not the 'healthiest' of humans, i am well on the road to a full recovery and i look at this 'second chance' as a blessing rather than a curse. Many of you know i've been through a lot of personal $h!+ over the past year and a half and i allowed it to take over my life. Well, no more.
That being said, I now look forward to rededicating myself to this website and my health, in no particular order, and I think 2005 is the year of really big things for CFHC. I learned that hospital food (at least when you are allowed to eat 'solid' food) is even worse than airplane food, and i look forward to a full healthy meal tonight. TV at the hospital is abysmal (they don't even carry TWC and the only cable news is the communist-run CNN) so I've totally been out of the loop as far as this season goes, so i've got some catching up to do.
Can't wait to get back in the saddle again and it's great to see many of the regulars are already in mid-season form even before the official start of the season.
Just wanted to wish everyone well and NEVER take your health for granted.
Now...let's get it started!
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu May 12 2005 06:08 PM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Welcome back Phil and yes let's get ready to rumble.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 12 2005 06:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Yes, welcome back Phil; and good health upon yee_
and have a safe season!
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 12 2005 06:25 PM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Good to see you back Phil stick to those guns and one shall prevail.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu May 12 2005 07:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Stay strong Phil... as I said at HCW, your bieng back is a very good thing!
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu May 12 2005 07:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
I just realized that tomorrow is Friday the 13. Yeah... I sure remember the last Friday the 13. If things come to be within the next few days, what at a way start the season, eh?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 12 2005 08:15 PM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Glad to hear you're doing better, Phil. We'll try to send some action your way this summer for a complete recovery!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu May 12 2005 08:21 PM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Tomorrow definitely is Friday the 13th, but the way things are panning out, I don't think we'll have a system out there this time around....unlike the last one (for those that don't remember, that would be Friday, August 13th, 2004). There's less support from the globals on anything in the Carib the next couple of days -- not convinced shear is going to let up -- the current flareup of convection not withstanding. Maybe it'll help build the ridge over the deep SW Carib, but I wouldn't get my hopes up just yet.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 12 2005 08:27 PM |
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Sorry for the off-topic post, but as stated before, this is important for everyone. Please take time to sign this partition.
Click here
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 12 2005 08:32 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Believe me, the NWS does not need the people to save it...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 12 2005 08:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Yes, i send my best wishes too. Get well soon!
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Thu May 12 2005 08:56 PM |
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Good to have u back Phil, kind regards
The area in the SW caribbean i dont think will develop, at least not yet. Sure, the sst's are good enough, and there is ample moisture with the recent passage of the tropical wave, but it isnt organised. Convection will probably keep firing up here, and if this persists and the upper level conditions are favourable, we could see some slow development this weekend, but cant say as i am holding my breath...
| Beaujolais |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu May 12 2005 09:35 PM |
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
WB and very glad to see ya back Phil. I have missed ya bad. Good to see you are doing a wee bit better and ITA with you that your health should never be ignored! Love yaz!! Oh and hiyas everyone else!!
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu May 12 2005 10:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Sorry to hear you've had a rough time LI Phil, but glad things are looking up for you. We definitely need you around here and glad you're back!!
So, lots of little things out there that you all are posting about...is this typical for this time of year??
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 12 2005 11:38 PM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Glad to hear you're alright Phil. I read your post and figured I should pop in to say yo. I suppose you could have enjoyed the Fox Nazi Channel
.Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 13 2005 01:23 AM |
|
Re: Landfall forecast update
|
Interesting,Maine has a higher percent than Miami/Ft. L;auderdale.Also Bahamas is at 70%,but Miami/Ft Lauderdale is at 40-70% even though the Bahamas are just a few miles off shore.I guess Miami would be at 69%. :?:
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri May 13 2005 02:13 AM |
|
|
|
straight analogs
|
grays analogs for this year in december were 1952, 1958, 1970, and 2003
in april they were 1952, 1959, 1995, and 2003.
ENSO is trending neutral, which is more or less the pattern of any of the listed years. if you count up the landfalls in the listed years, in the u.s., texas, south carolina, and florida have most of the hurricane landfalls. most of the listed years have out of season activity, a good spread-out season, and in general above normal activity. of the years listed, the latest first storm formed june 14, most of the last storms were in late october. the modern era years of 1995 and 2003 featured an extremely high level of activity... most forecasts being advertised now have the idea that 2005 will come across much the same.
it has been mentioned that the cooler than normal ssts in the atlantic subtropics would promote a stronger than average zonal ridge in the western atlantic. i concur with this idea. if the conditions are as such going into the core of the season... look out. of course, after how incredibly unlucky 2004 was, look for the 'saving grace' scenarios to play out at least some of the time this year.
potential highlights based on analogs:
preseason or early june system.
at least 3 major hurricanes.
tropical storm and hurricane landfalls clustering in tx, fl, and sc.
major hurricane somewhere in the caribbean.
three of the six years had a major hurricane hit somewhere in the u.s. (gracie 1959, celia 1970, opal 1995). 1958 was damned close with another, helene. the other two had a category two (able, 1952, isabel, 2003).
three of the years had multiple hurricane hits; all had tropical storm landfalls somewhere in the gulf.
of course, it's unlikely that the analogs will play out exactly. if we get the strong west extension of the ridge like last summer/fall, the clustering of out-to-sea recurvatures in the western and central atlantic seen in all of the years won't work out. that's not the sort of thing easily assessed from may 12th.
HF 0400z13may
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri May 13 2005 03:32 AM |
|
Re: straight analogs
|
I'll agree with that statement about the ridge, HF. By their nature, with cooler than normal surface conditions, you're promoting the development of that subtropical ridge. Any sort of organized convection you can get going south of it is going to help things along too -- heat release from convection/outflow promotes that development too. (Info provided moreso for everyone else's general knowledge.)
As we saw in 2004, the operational models did a pretty poor job of representing the subtropical ridge & its strength. I asked a couple of the tropical modelers from the Natl. Center for Env. Prediction (NCEP; where they design/run the GFS model, among others) about this and if anything had been done to understand the cause of the errors or attempt to fix them; their reply to me was that they did not know of any problems in representing the ridge last season. I'll leave that bit for you all to chew on.
Anyway, with the current conditions with a ridge across the subtropics -- including much of the SE U.S. -- the warming temperatures (near 90 in spots now) are going to warm those shallow waters near-shore pretty quickly. We'll probably be near-normal before the end of the month if the current pattern holds to a reasonable degree. Anomalies aren't quite as extreme in the central Atlantic, though any small amount may play a non-insignificant role in TC formation/track, but these too will likely warm once we get into the season. Still surprising to see warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the tropics; if we get the jet to move out of the region over the next month or so, we may get something out east of the islands in late June/early July.
I agree, though; it's not a great scenario to be looking at right now. Last thing we need is anything close to 2004. 1995 wouldn't be a bad year, come to think of it -- lots of storms but lots of fish spinners (minus Opal and, to some degree, Luis/Marilyn).
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 13 2005 05:11 AM |
|
Re: straight analogs
|
Look at 14 north/82 west just off the coast. There seems to be a MLC forming. Deep convection. The models show a area of low pressure developing in moving northeastward after 24 hours. Could it be?
I will be tracking this closely!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri May 13 2005 11:13 AM |
|
SW Caribbean
|
The 06Z Surface Analysis also shows a broad low pressure area (1005mb) in this general region, with IR satellite imagery indicating a large complex of convection with very cold cloud top temperatures. This area is also being hinted at in some of the forecast models, as alreadys tated above. After my comments yesterday about this area not developing, and with HF's comments on the analog years having preseason or early season activity, it looks like this area might actually do something over the next few days.
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri May 13 2005 12:18 PM |
|
Re: straight analogs
|
Quote:
I agree, though; it's not a great scenario to be looking at right now. Last thing we need is anything close to 2004. 1995 wouldn't be a bad year, come to think of it -- lots of storms but lots of fish spinners (minus Opal and, to some degree, Luis/Marilyn).
...and Erin. As a point of reference, peak gust at the house::
Frances, 2004: 80mph
Jeanne, 2004: 72mph (twice)
Erin. 1995: 104mph (eyewall - 40 minutes)
A 'bad' year is only defined by where you (and the storm) are at.
Cheers,
ED
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 13 2005 02:35 PM |
|
|
|
Dr. Gray 's Update
|
Dr. William Gray will be updating his forecast on May31st but he will hint that he will be increasing the number of storms at a seminar today.. The morning news had indicated he will increase his number of cyclones, presently at 13, to a higher number. I wonder if he'll go to 14, or even to 15. Unprecedented if he goes as high as 15 with tthe scheduled update on May 31st..
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 13 2005 02:44 PM |
|
|
|
southwest Caribbean
|
first off, to LIPhil, hope you get better soon
now for the Caribbean system, it is interesting to note that we have not had a tropical storm in May since 1981 (which i think is the longest time period in the satellite and radar era); and it is only a matter of time before we have another. The low east of Honduras does seem to be forming a circulation, and there is a feeder band comming into the SE edge from the Pacific (usually a good indication of formation).
Not going to say yet if I think it will develop, but it looks like the best possibility since the system in 1996 (last year's low was subtropical)
it is also interesting that the last May storm was Arlene
which will be the first storm this year
Caribbean low
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 13 2005 03:57 PM |
|
Re: southwest Caribbean
|
You have to give this system an A for persistence.The SST's in the area can support a system if the shear would relax.I think HF and Clark are right see if it persist in another 48hrs. maybe something will happen.HF are Clark is the shear we are seeing now in relation to the Kelvin wave a few weeks back?
If the shear does not lessen its a dead goose.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri May 13 2005 09:34 PM |
|
Re: SW Caribbean
|
Well the disturbed weather continues in the SW Caribbean. In fact the latest visible imagery would seem to indicate a circulation has now developed near 12N 81W. Not sure if this is surface or mid-level. NHC also hint at a weak low forming here within the next day or two, with a current surface trough indicated on the 18z Surface analysis.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri May 13 2005 09:47 PM |
|
Re: straight analogs
|
Ed - you're entirely correct. Erin is my only storm that I've truly been through -- the center passed directly over my house -- but I was in Orlando at the time. The most we saw was 50-55mph winds in localized areas, which pales in comparison to what you saw. I should be a bit more careful in my words, as it only takes one storm -- as we found out so many times over last season.
As for the SW Caribbean -- there is some sort of circulation, but it was not captured by the last QuikSCAT scan (sometime this morning); however, it did show some pretty strong winds on the north side -- up to 50kt (mostly rain-flagged vectors, though). There should be another scan in the next few hours that may provide more insight. The convection -- really an MCS (mesoscale convective system) -- helped provide the surface pressure falls to get the circulation going; it'll be another matter if the circulation can maintain itself. Judging from visible imagery, which in itself is somewhat obscured on the south side by high clouds & convection, I would be willing to say that it is a near-surface or surface circulation that has developed. Convection near the center has died for the most part (save to the east) for now; something's going to have to organize again to keep the circulation from opening up on the southern side, however.
Wind shear has decreased in the region, but is still a bit on the high side. Any movement northward is going to rapidly take the system into a region of higher shear; the jet also appears to be slowly approaching again from the west, not a good sign for development. 18Z NHC analysis doesn't call for a low to develop there any longer, though neither does it analyze something there now. However, while I typed up the post initially, NRL put out a 91L INVEST on the system...talk about timely. Models still try to build the ridge in the SW Caribbean, but not for another 2 days. By then, whatever is there will have either developed extratropically or simply dissipated. Nevertheless, there is a narrow window for something; I just don't see it happening. Good practice for analysis, though. Ultimately, we could well end up like last May's Hispaniola storm, as previously alluded to here on the board.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 13 2005 09:49 PM |
|
91L invest up for Caribbean
|
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
I was a little surprised to see this invest being up so rapid.So let's see what happens.But shear will be the main factor to no let it develop however if it fades then it may be another story.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri May 13 2005 10:07 PM |
|
Re: 91L invest up for Caribbean
|
I asked NRL to put up that invest so I'd have something to talk about on the news...LOL.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri May 13 2005 10:23 PM |
|
Re: 91L invest up for Caribbean
|
Perfect timing after last night's event
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri May 13 2005 10:31 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 91L invest up for Caribbean
|
i think that 91L stays more or less stationary and convection continues to flare at about the sam pace for the next 24 hrs or so. more wave energy is sliding in from the east late tomorrow, and about then the system could make another lunge at development. there seemed to be more diffluence over the area earlier.. it appears to have shifted east along the jet (might be an exit region or something). provided that the flare of convection upstream along the jet (south of d.r.) doesn't steal 91Ls fire, there may be some real organization to the thing by late sunday/monday. whether it's drifting up to near jamaica by then is a whole other issue. there's a decent surface trough and what looks like a meso low at the mid levels, but the focus for lowering pressure i'm thinking will stay just along the rim of the subtropical jet.. it should only migrate north as the jet does.
anyhow, just my take. now i need to go look at some model runs to see if my ideas are totally bonkers.
HF 2332z13may
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Fri May 13 2005 11:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 91L invest up for Caribbean
|
I know Ed and Clark just said something on par with this... but I would like to remind everyone of the 1992 season. Classic example of the "all it takes is one" scenario: One TD, Six named storms, of which only four become hurricanes, with only one major hurricane. Yet out of this we have the costliest natural disaster in United States history, and only one of the hurricanes made landfall. You all know its name. Every time I look at this picture I literally get goose bumps on my neck:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/srh/jetstream/tropics/images/andrew.jpg
I’m not really sure what this has to do with anything… but please stop with the landfall statistics mongering, and remember that all it takes is one. I find that I cannot reiterate this enough.
Note that stating landfall statistics (past events) is not mongering - it is simply stating what happened.
... Noted.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat May 14 2005 01:47 PM |
|
El Nino may calm storms ?
|
I was reading an article in Florida Todays newspaper that we that we enjoy in Melbourne about what was talked about at the Governor`s Hurricane Conference in Florida. David Zierden a reasearcher at the Florida Climate Center in Tallahassee says that " There`s been another kind of pulse of warming going on near the coast of South America and it looks like something might be happeng. Its too early to say weather this will turn into a full-blown El Nino. We`ll know in a month or two. If El Nino were to delvelope, it certainly would be good news as far as hurricanes are concerned, but its to early to tell. Also Dr. Gray being there said " That the Atantic looks to be in a warming pattern similiar to one detected in the 1940`s and 1950`s.Its likely we`re going to get another 15 or 20 years of the Alantic getting warmer and that this is a natural cycle " Gray still expects more hurricanes than a average year, but not as many landfalls.......What do you guys think? Is there a chance that this David guy is on to something which could mean fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic this season and prompt Dr. Gray to lower his seasonal hurricane prediction fo 2005 ?..........After reading the article I was just wondering. Any comments?..........Weatherchef
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat May 14 2005 02:03 PM |
|
|
|
91L
|
i was just wondering when exactly 90L was
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat May 14 2005 02:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 91L
|
It's not looking so hot...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat May 14 2005 04:07 PM |
|
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
I sent the following E-Mail to the Senator:
Senator,
You introduced legislation to effectively terminate the mission of the National Weather Service as a whole, reducing it to a data-mining agency for the private sector. I'm all for private-sector competition, but there is no precedent in any field to eliminate a task of the government under pressure from the private sector; it is up to the private sector to provide a service the general public desires and will pay for, improving upon what is publicly available, not to complain when they do not get their way.
As a resident of one of hardest hit hurricane states, as a avowed weather enthusiast, as an amateur meteorologist, I can tell you that this proposed legislation negatively impacts the meteorologist and forecasting fields in every imaginable way, with the only benefits realized in the private sector's checkbooks. It affects everyone, from those at the top providing the service to local television meteorologists and their forecasts to the general public looking for a simple, accurate forecast. People fail to realize how much the government provides that even the private-sector companies cannot live without; they also fail to realize how much more accurate and precise the governmental forecasts are as opposed to those from the private sector. The impacts upon the academic sector -- the group that provides the greatest benefits to hazardous weather prediction and understanding, yet alone daily weather prediction, would be huge. Entire sectors of the academic sector would cease to exist, notably those that go towards improving these forecasts. The private-sector companies rely heavily on data provided by the NWS and then charge their customers, the public, for this information that has already been paid for by the US Taxpaying public.
Your legislation is ill-conceived, poorly thought out, vague, very vague and will cost people money and even their lives. Accuweather and The Weather Channel did much more poorly than did the NWS in the record hurricane season the south-east United States experienced last year, and you would force the public to rely on companies like them, at a cost over and above we, the public, have already spent in taxes used to acquire the (often misinterpreted by the private sector companies) data.
Not everyone has (free or other) access to the Internet and cannot afford the 'premium' services provided by the private sector companies. Even if the public can afford the premiums your legislation would inflect upon it, why should the public pay taxes to support the private sector weather services? Unless, and until the private services can and do provide their own data, their own satellites, their own programs (models) that equal or exceed those used by the NWS and make the information freely available like the NWS, I submit the government should provide NO free information or data to the private sector companies and spend NO tax dollars to their benefit. We should not subsidize the private weather information companies with our taxes in any way unless we, the public receive service equal to or better than the NWS provides and for equal or less cost to the public. Read, tax elimination with the savings being returned to the public so they can pay for the commercial services.
I can't vote for you, or against you, but I can and will try to communicate my opinions and recommendations with as many of my many friends in your state that can and do vote. I hope you will reconsider your legislation.
Richard Creighton
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat May 14 2005 04:32 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Publicly available data
|
Quote:Are you really willing to take that chance? You can help insure it doesn't make it out of committee by sending a note, like Skeeter did. Even if redundant, it can't hurt and it might help. Just don't stand by and do nothing. That is why our government is so F****ed up already. We have collectively stood still and done nothing way too long. If you are wrong, and it does pass, I hope you never have to trust The Wx Channel for lifesaving weather information. It would interfere too much with the commercial breaks and 'teasers' about next hours upcoming teasers....untill after the storm hits and they claim 100% accuracy.
Very good idea Skeetobite. However, I agree with Hank...the bill will never reach the light of day. I wonder how much $$ Mr. Santorum received from his constituent, Accuweather.com to propose this legislation. Please see link:
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat May 14 2005 04:42 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Quote:Hey Phil...I'm the old fogey here, you can't get sick, and if you do, you will have to stop doing that. It is *my* job in this forum to be an old curmudgeon with a weak heart!
Hello all CFHCers,
I have been quite sick and spent the last week in the hospital, during which time I had to do a lot of soul searching and will be making several lifestyle changes necessary to keep me living for many more years. :
Get well, completely well, quick my friend.
Richard
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat May 14 2005 06:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 91L
|
some storms flaring NE of the center now
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat May 14 2005 07:28 PM |
|
Re: 91L
|
A group of weather watchers at my office wondered what would happen if the first hurricane of the year struck Florida before our Hurricane Tax free week came. I thought we were joking at the time, but this is starting to look a little interesting on this Saturday afternoon. Memorial Day would definitely be memorable. I can not tell in all my wisdom where the darn thing is moving if it is moving. But, it is nice to feel safe watching this little glob of rain showers right now.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat May 14 2005 07:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 91L
|
I've heard about the tax free thing in passing. When is it and what actually is tax free?
I need to make my list and start stocking up, I guess. I am still paranoid of the lack of gasoline last season. I hate that trapped feeling.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat May 14 2005 07:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 91L
|
My understanding is that Florida will waive the state sales tax on the purchase of hurricane preparedness items the first week of June(??)
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat May 14 2005 08:06 PM |
|
Re: 91L
|
June 1 until the 12th I think (that would be a long time so maybe not). Batteries, flashlights, generators also I have been told....but not PLYWOOD
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat May 14 2005 09:00 PM |
|
Re: 91L
|
Also just a note.... The GFS is hinting at a little rumble in a few days and the 12Z runs of NOGAPS and UKM really try to spin something in about a week. I doubt it but.... and no land involved thus far, just fish!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat May 14 2005 09:04 PM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Let me say this; there are SERIOUS misconceptions about this bill and what it's effects will or will not be. Most everything I have seen on here and in other locations is not what the bill is intended to do, or what the CWSU is thinking. The reason that the bill has even been presented is due to the arrogance of the leadership of NOAA dissolving a long standing agreement between themselves and the Commericial Weather industry, and REFUSING to come back to the table and hammer out a new agreement.
Want free, unfettered weather data? Better hope the Santorum Bill passes, cause you aren't likely to get some of it if it doesn't.
Sorry for the OT post...but this issue really gets me going cause the commerical vendors are getting hammered for this, when it is YOUR Governments fault this bill is proposed at all.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat May 14 2005 09:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
but how do you really feel jason?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat May 14 2005 09:20 PM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Quote:
but how do you really feel jason?
Where IS my blood pressure medicine? (LOL)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun May 15 2005 02:58 AM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Jason,
That's only the part of the bill that Accuweather and some of the data banks are mentioning. The bill specifically states that the government would be forbidden from posting weather products that any commercial establishment is "willing" to provide. As noted by man, Accuweather has a premium site that allows its paying members to access. As long as anyone is willing, that's all it's going to take. There was a great thread on Storm2k that Don Sutherland really explained the whole problem. A couple of other people who dissented (such as yourself) were later provided with the actual text of the bill. It's kind of a two part deal: Part 1 is that the government be banned from withholding data. Part 2, the insidious part, bans the government from providing information to the public (except severe stuff) if any commercial provider is willing to release that information under their auspices.
As you and everyone else around here knows, I have been a longtime defender of Bastardi and Accuweather. But I'm boycotting them this year. I wrote them and never heard a word back about their deceptive campaign. Shame on them, but they won't be getting any of my money this season.
Here's the thread which would be very worth your while (and everyone else's) to read and understand. The specific point which I was referencing:
Here is a pertinet exchange between wxmet57 (a professional met) and someone who researched the bill:
The bill looks fine to me. It may prevent the NWS/NHC from witholding valueable data in the future. Seems like the NHC was witholding recon data in recent years until HOURS after it was available to them.
wxmet57: I just don't see what all the fuss is about. No one is going to be prevented from receiving a forecast from the NWS.
x-y-no: Forgive me if I don't just believe that because you assert it. Section 2(b) of the bill is quite clear in saying that NWS may not compete by offering any service or data which could be provided by the private sector unless they can demonstrate that no private entity is willing to provide it. Now go to Accuweather Pro, and see just how much territory that covers. Along with forecasts, they have sattelite imagery, radar imagery, model output, etc. all things many of us here use on a daily basis free from NOAA. Now, by the plain wording of the bill, the government must stop offering those things since Accuweather has manifestly demonstrated the willingness to provide them.
The bill says that data shall be supplied through " a set of data portals designed for volume access by commercial providers of products or services" - it doesn't say anything about continuing to provide such data to the public, even though we've paid for it.
Also, the bill repeals 15 U.S.C. 313. I suggest you look that up and tell me deleting this from the law will have no effect.
Here's the link to the thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=61858
Steve
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun May 15 2005 03:01 AM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
The arrogance that Jason speaks of actually started over five years ago when NOAA fired Joe Friday (NWS Director), but this bill is not the solution to the NOAA arrogance problem. I too am a private meteorologist, but I do not support this bill. I have been in conversation with various folks in the NWS about the expected ramifications if this bill should pass, and here are their collective beliefs:
1. Raw weather data would not be available to the public (for free) from the NWS. No observational data, no radar data and no satellite data.
2. Before, during and after a major weather event, NWS meteorologists would not be allowed to go 'on-camera' to prepare the public or discuss the damage - and that includes the folks at NHC.
3. Weather radio would only be permitted to transmit warnings - in other words, most of the time it would be silent.
4. Weather data would not be available from the government on the internet for use by the general public - it would only be available through a service provider who had paid to receive it.
5. Free weather data, paid for by the public through their taxes, would have to be paid for again by those same citizens.
On this issue, I must side with Richard. The bill is not the solution to the arrogance problem, the arrogance problem simply became a convenient means to develop a bill that would support one of the Senator's constituents - and clobber the public access to weather data paid for by their taxes. It's a bad bill trying to solve a bad problem - and its not really off-topic, since the existence of this site really depends on the availability of free weather data.
ED
(...and thats about as strong as you'll see me get on an issue - obviously this one got my attention - but for different reasons.)
Ed Dunham
Chief Meteorologist
The Boeing Company
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun May 15 2005 03:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
OK fellows...
I've remained silent on this issue because basically, i'm rather uninformed as to the bill's actual context...(i've also been 'out of the loop, so to speak, for the past 3 weeks or so)...however
i do work for a State Senator and while federal legislation can sometimes be quite different from state legislation (they like to stick in all kinds of riders and codacils in federal legislation which we can't do at the state level), but this seems to be quite similar to state legislation, with which i am intimately familiar.
i don't have the time right now to go back and get the actual bill number, but if someone could provide Mr. Santorum's legislation, replete with bill number, i will try to ascertain the actual intent and parameters and scope of this legislation.
at this moment i don't want to take any kind of a stand on the bill, but it is obviously generating some heated debate, especially in weather circles...
as a slightly off-topic aside, there is currently a bill in the house (not yet introed into the senate) which is an energy bill and which, among other things, if passed and signed into law, would extend daylight savings by TWO MONTHS. These are the kinds of things that our fine representatives are able to stick into legislation which is otherwise innocuous. The ramifications of extending daylight savings by 2 months are tremendous, yet we (save for me, as it's my job) never hear of these things...one other interesting piece of legislation which passed four or five years ago (but was subsequently amended) actually made a SIXTH Great Lake! Yep, for about 2 weeks, Lake Champlain was given "great lake" status and protection...i believe that was Senator Daniel Lahey (sp) who snuck that one through...
so lemme take a look at this bill...i can't say i'll be able to understand it any better than ya'll, but i'll give it a shot...all i need is the bill number and i'll take it from there...
this could be some really serious $h!+ and i for one would like to know the future of availability of data for which we, the people, have already paid for once...
ok...das my $.02 for now
Cheers,
LI Phil
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun May 15 2005 03:37 AM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
I've emailed the bill to you.
Cheers,
ED
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun May 15 2005 03:45 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Thanks, ED
I can't promise i can make any more sense out of it than any of you guys, but since this falls pretty much squarely within what i actually do for a living...lemme have at it...
the good thing about this is, i have no preconceived notions one way or the other about this legislation, so i will be as objective as possible (in other words, i'm not necessarily against the bill before i read it, and will therefore find only the negatives of the bill)...
i'll give you folks whatever analysis i can come up with (or get some insider dope from my friends in the house)...this could be some major, major....stuff.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun May 15 2005 03:50 AM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
I respectfully disagree.
I have read the bill many times over...I read it several times before it was a bill...it was vetted past me and several other mets prior to it's introduciton. I don't agree in full with it, but what you are attributing to be bill is just not what the bill says...have YOU read it?
The hook to this is that the Secretary of Commerce, as the titular head of NOAA is (within the bill) the FINAL arbitor of what is to be produced by NWS, and what is not...not Joel Myers or Accuweather or Weather Data or anyone else. NOAA's boss gets to "guard the henhouse", so to speak. The intent of this bill is NOT to eliminate the Zones or about 70% of the other forecast products out there. The real beef is with the NDFD with it's hourly point forecasts (which NOAA promised it would NOT do....until they decided to turn their backs on their agreement and do it), and a few other products. The average joe will likely never notice a difference, cause free public forecasts (as well as LOTS more free data) will be out there...the bill would be an absolute boon to websites like this one.
Under this bill SPC, NHC, TPC, NCEP, SWC, EMC, and HPC would be unchanged...the only real changes would be the structure of local offices and how they do business (which NOAA has been screaming that they don't have enough resources to do their valuable work of saving lives, but their forecasters do an hour or 2 of forecasting and 6 hours of entering numbers in a digital database? What a boondoggle THAT is!) As I said earlier, the person that makes the decision about what NWS can and cannot produce is not Accuweather or anyone in the CWSU, the elimination of any particular product or service is NOT MENTIONED in the bill...it states the SecCom makes that decision. What is wrong with that?
There are good people on both sides of this issue, and I totally respect those who don't like the bill...what I don't like are the lies and distortions (check out the NWS Employee's Union press release about the bill for some VERY creative writing and fact juggleing) that are used to vilifiy this bill.
Just because you don't like Accuweather is no reason to not be open minded about this bill (*no one in particular that is pointed at ...just a statement*)
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun May 15 2005 03:51 AM |
|
Re: El Nino may calm storms ?
|
Re: B.C. Francis' post...I've worked with Dave Zierden in the past -- just last summer, in fact -- and he's going to be watching those signals, but he and the group he works with, the Fl. Climate Center and COAPS here at Florida State, are usually very hesitant to jump the gun and declare an El Nino (or for that matter, La Nina) event. The warming we had earlier this year was never declared an El Nino by their group, the condition being that it did not meet their criterion of an extended period of substantial warming in the Pacific (as defined by the JMA index). If they're talking though, I'll listen.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun May 15 2005 04:08 AM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
ED,
I am not calling you out, but your post demonstrates the outright mistruths that the NWSEU is spreading...let me elaborate.
Quote:
1. Raw weather data would not be available to the public (for free) from the NWS. No observational data, no radar data and no satellite data.
The exact opposite is true....from the bill.
"* (c) ISSUANCE OF DATA, FORECASTS, AND WARNINGS-
* (1) IN GENERAL- All data, information, guidance, forecasts, and warnings
received, collected, created, or prepared by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration or the National Weather Service shall, to the
maximum extent practicable, be issued in real time, and without delay for
internal use, in a manner that ensures that all members of the public have
the opportunity for simultaneous and equal access to such data, information,
guidance, forecasts, and warnings."
The public (ALL the public) gets unfettered access to all data that NWS creates and receives.
Quote:
2. Before, during and after a major weather event, NWS meteorologists would not be allowed to go 'on-camera' to prepare the public or discuss the damage - and that includes the folks at NHC.
I can tell you that this is an issue that I have with this bill...I want it changed and have shared this with CWSU..I do understand where they are coming from with this...it is designed to prevent NWS offices from providing free TV and radio weathercasts for TV stations (and it has already happened in one area...so don't think it can't)
Quote:
3. Weather radio would only be permitted to transmit warnings - in other words, most of the time it would be silent.
Again, no...someone out there thinks that this bill is trying to get rid of the zones, etc...not at all...NWR would keep churning along (considering 96% of the country don't even know what it is, what difference does it make anyway? LOL)
Quote:
4. Weather data would not be available from the government on the internet for use by the general public - it would only be available through a service provider who had paid to receive it.
I think where this one comes from is the following part of what I posted above:
"* (2) MODE OF ISSUANCE- Data, information, guidance, forecasts, and warnings
shall be issued under paragraph (1) through a set of data portals designed
for volume access by commercial providers of products or services and by such
other mechanisms as the Secretary of Commerce considers appropriate for
purposes of that paragraph."
It is inferred by many that this means only weather vendors get the info and can parse it out for free...but you have to look at the last part, in which the Secretary can disseminate the data however NOAA sees fit...Websites, FTP, etc...JUST like now!
Quote:
5. Free weather data, paid for by the public through their taxes, would have to be paid for again by those same citizens.
See above.
The problem with the bill is that there are lots of areas that are gray or poorly worded, and there are several areas I would like to see changed...however I can assure you that the nefarious accusations that have been levied towards the CWSU aren't what is actually in the cards.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun May 15 2005 04:18 AM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Jason -- I will completely agree that the way NOAA works is somewhat arrogant at times and that the current policy does not exactly foster everyone working together. I don't believe, however, that the proposed legislation is the way towards going about encouraging such interaction (though I will claim ignorance on many of the finer points of the bill, most of which still need to be hammered out between the various groups).
The NWS/NOAA did once have the no-compete clause; however, everything that they provide that conflicts with something another commercial vendor provides generally either originates from NOAA products (e.g. model data) or is a direct repackaging of NOAA products (e.g. satellite, radar). Further, NWS/NOAA was generally first to provide those services; effectively, the material fell under a grandfather clause, whether stated or implied. Of course, then the no-compete was repealed, and here we stand today. The AMS held a symposium telecast over the Internet regarding the issue about a year ago, with many of the players already mentioned in the thread present on the board.
The bigger question becomes, what is the most fair agreement between NOAA & the commercial sector? Any agreement is going to affect the entire field of meteorology, that much is certain. Similarly, the most fair solution is likely going to lie somewhere between the two extremes; determining where is the key issue here. Problem is, neither side seems to want to work cooperatively to resolve the issue: NOAA views it as circumvention to effectively eliminate many of their powers, while the commercial sector feels like they are trying to right a wrong and can't work with NOAA to do so. Something that allows fair and unfettered access to the data without limiting anyone's abilities to innovate, forecast, put out products, and so on is what is needed. For instance, universities get a wide array of data free under the current program, while such a luxury is not provided to commercial vendors. Thus, the universities can perform quite a bit of research at a reduced rate (which is good), but they can also use their status to create products that blow the commercial sector out of the water (price & often feature-wise). Rectifying that problem, perhaps by changing how data is filtered to the commercial vendors (without changing the entire structure of NOAA), is (IMO) the best way to start to address the problem. Building blocks can then go from there to develop a fair partnership.
Getting back to the arrogance of NOAA for a brief second, over time, they've decided to exert more and more power and control over the NWS itself, oftentimes much to the dismay of the NWS & those it affects. No longer is the NWS technically the NWS -- it is now NOAA's NWS. The gridded forecast product is a particularly hot topic of debate, as it relies on modified model output to populate the grids and, essentially, provide a forecast. Any private company that can do it better without overcharging the public twice for it is going to have success (and that's part of why the local weatherman is still going strong today...they are generally better than even a local NWS office). Further, since it is a national product, all office's forecasts have to match, something that can lead to some interesting debates and inconsistantcies between multiple offices when developing a forecast. It too came down from the top. The COMET program -- a valuable collaborative effort between the NWS & its affliates and universities -- has lost its funding, while student internship positions are sharply down across the board; while these two aspects may not solely be on NOAA's shoulders, it comes down from the top as well.
It's interesting, though, to hear the wide variety of views on this issue here on the board. I somewhat expected it, with the wide array of interests represented, but that's not a bad thing: it gets valid discussion going. I will say though that Sen. Santorum has been flooded with e-mails and calls about this legislation (mostly against, some for), but not primarily from those in the meteorological community. Instead, surprisingly enough, it comes from the technological community, where the vast majority come from an open-source mindset and would like to see things remain nearly the same as they are now (with minor changes). If anything, however, it just goes to show you how far-reaching the impacts of this bill may be.
As for the W. Caribbean invest: I've yet to see a satellite intensity estimate on it, but I would imagine it'd be T1.0/1.0 at best. There still appears to be some sort of circulation there with convection firing on its east side, but I feel it is currently too far north (and close to the subtropical jet) to see much development. There is a small & narrow ridge of high pressure aloft trying to build in from the east, as predicted by the models, but I think the storm may have moved too much for this to matter all that much. Model support for development is generally lacking in the area, however.
As someone mentioned, the NOGAPS & UKMET models try to develop something in the central Atlantic in the 5-7 day time frame, as in the latest run, but that's really too far out to speculate right now. The NOGAPS is stronger with development than the UKMET, with both models initially developing the storm as an extratropical low. However, as it moves northeast, both show some sort of subtropical (UK) or tropical (NOGAPS) transition of the cyclone. Bears watching, but too early out there, despite the relatively high SSTs for this time of year, to really get your hopes up.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun May 15 2005 04:24 AM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Clark,
BRAVO. You hit it on the head...and better that I could have done. You tied it up very nicely, and I agree with (almost...lol) everything you said.
Sorry that I digressed so much on this Mods...back to the tropics now...promise.
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun May 15 2005 04:26 AM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Well at least we can agree to disagree on this one (sounds like your normal weather office to me). Some folks think that this may really be nothing more than an attempt to get the 'private weather service' ball rolling again - and they just might be correct. Obviously for a few grand, anybody can capture satellite data, however radar stuff is a bit more difficult. Does the NWS tend to exaggerate the impact? Of course, but then again I would expect them to. It is also fair to state that the 'lots more free data' that you speak of is also not mentioned in the bill. Free data at 4km isn't really too exciting if you end up paying for the 0.25km stuff that you now enjoy. The only thing wrong about the SecCom decision process is that those decisions will ultimately be guided by the law (and political pressure and funding pressure). Made for a lively discussion though!
Cheers,
ED
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun May 15 2005 04:29 AM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
We'll have to disagree. As noted, if something sounds too good to be true, it is. No way Myers is donating to Santorum to not have this bill drafted. There may be aspects you like, but it's clear as day what is lying under the surface. There is a giant profit motive for the bill. Again, it is quite clear. I have read the bill. And this section and following, the reference back to it, should give any taxpayer chills. One would have to have a tremendous faith in government that no recent administration (particularly this one) with appointments of industry insiders and lobbyists to positions that sometimes greatly benefit the private sector at the expense of the public good. Here is the text that I have a serious problem with.
(b) COMPETITION WITH PRIVATE SECTOR.--The
20 National Weather Service shall not provide, or assist other
21 entities in providing, a service or product (other than a
22 service or product described in subsection (a)(1)(A)) that
23 is or could be provided by the private sector unless--
S 786 IS
3
1 (1) the Secretary determines that the private
2 sector is unwilling or unable to provide such service
3 or product; or
4 (2) the United States Government is obligated
5 to provide such service or product under inter-
6 national aviation agreements to provide meteorolog-
7 ical services and exchange meteorological informa-
8 tion.
9 (c) ISSUANCE DATA, FORECASTS, WARN-
OF AND
10 INGS.--All data, information, guidance, forecasts, and
11 warnings received, collected, created, or prepared by the
12 National Weather Service shall, to the maximum extent
13 practicable, be issued in real time, and without delay, in
14 a manner that ensures that all members of the public have
15 the opportunity for simultaneous and equal access to such
16 data, information, guidance, forecasts, and warnings.
17 (d) PROHIBITION CERTAIN DISCLOSURES.--An
ON
18 officer, employee, or agent of the National Weather Serv-
19 ice, or of any other department or agency of the United
20 States, who comes by reason of that status into possession
21 of any weather data, information, guidance, forecast, or
22 warning that might influence or affect the market value
23 of any product, service, commodity, tradable, or business
24 may not--
S 786 IS
4
1 (1) willfully impart, whether directly or indi-
2 rectly, such weather data, information, guidance,
3 forecast, or warning, or any part thereof, before the
4 issuance of such weather data, information, guid-
5 ance, forecast, or warning to the public under sub-
6 section (c); or
7 (2) after the issuance of such weather data, in-
8 formation, guidance, forecast, or warning to the
9 public under subsection (c), willfully impart com-
10 ments or qualifications on such weather data, infor-
11 mation, guidance, forecast, or warning, or any part
12 thereof, to the public, except pursuant to an
13 issuance that complies with that subsection.
Steve
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun May 15 2005 04:49 AM |
|
|
|
Mr. Santorum's Legislation
|
If I may...
and thanks to ED for this...
this is the Honorable Senator Sentorum's "bill memo" to the president describing his proposed legislation...despite the nuances of the language, please notice his "concern" that what NOAA/NWS is actually doing is providing "private" agencies and corporations access to data which can affect the bottom line...ie, futures trading and the like...while that may not be the overriding purpose of this legislation, this is what i'm talking about...sneaking little insiduous (though seemingly innocuous) wording into legislation...he seems more worried about certain groups/coalitions making money off the weather than the actual duties of the public or private sector...read his memo...then you be the judge:
"S3658 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD — SENATE April 14, 2005 STATEMENTS ON INTRODUCED BILLS AND JOINT RESOLUTIONS -- (Senate - April 14, 2005) By Mr. SANTORUM: S. 786. A bill to clarify the duties and responsibilities of the National Weather Service, and for other purposes; to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Mr. SANTORUM. Mr. President, I rise to introduce the National Weather Services Duties Act of 2005 to clarify the responsibilities of the National Weather Service (NWS) within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, NOAA. This legislation modernizes the statutory description of NWS roles in the national weather enterprise so that it reflects today's reality in which the NWS and the commercial weather industry both play important parts in providing weather products and services to the Nation. Back in 1890 when the current NWS organic statute was enacted, and all the way through World War II, the public received its weather forecasts and warnings almost exclusively from the Weather Bureau, the NWS's predecessor. In the late 1940s, a fledging weather service industry began to develop. From then until December 2004, the NWS has had policies sensitive to the importance of fostering the industry's expansion, and since 1948 has had formal policies discouraging its competition with industry. Fourteen years ago the NWS took the extra step of carefully delineating the respective roles of the NWS and the commercial weather industry, in addition to pledging its intention not to provide products or services that were or could be provided by the commercial weather industry. This longstanding non-competition and non-duplication policy has had the effect of facilitating the growth of the industry into a billion dollar sector and of strengthening and extending the national weather enterprise, now the best in the world.
Regrettably, the parent agency of the NWS, NOAA, repealed the 1991 non-competition and non-duplication policy in December 2004. Its new policy only promises to ``give due consideration'' to the abilities of private sector entities. The new policy appears to signal the intention of NOAA and the NWS to expand their activities into areas that are already well served by the commercial weather industry. This detracts from NWS's core missions of maintaining a modem and effective meteorological infrastructure, collecting comprehensive observational data, and issuing warnings and forecasts of severe weather that imperils life and property. Additionally, NOAA's action threatens the continued success of the commercial weather industry. It is not an easy prospect for a business to attract advertisers, subscribers, or investors when the government is providing similar products and services for free. This bill restores the NWS non-competition policy. However, the legislation leaves NWS with complete and unfettered freedom to carry out its critical role of preparing and issuing severe weather warnings and forecasts designed for the protection of life and property of the general public. I believe it is in the best interest of both the government and NWS to concentrate on this critical role and its other core missions. The beauty of a highly competent private sector is that services that are not inherently involved in public safety and security can be carried out with little or no expenditure of taxpayer dollars. At a time of tight agency budgets, the commercial weather industry's increasing capabilities offer the Federal Government the opportunity to focus its resources on the governmental functions of collecring and distributing weather data, research and development of atmospheric models and core forecasts, and on ensuring that NWS meteorologists provide the most timely and accurate warnings and forecasts of life-threatening weather. The National Weather Service Duties Act also addresses the potential misuse of insider information. Currently, NOAA and the NWS are doing little to safeguard the NWS information that could be used by opportunistic investors to gain unfair profits in the weather futures markets, in the agriculture and energy markets, and in other business segments influenced by government weather outlooks, forecasts, and warnings. No one knows who may be taking advantage of this information. In recent years there have been various examples of NWS personnel providing such information to specific TV stations and others that enable those businesses to secure an advantage over their competitors.
The best way to address this problem is to require that NWS data, information, guidance, forecasts and warnings be issued in real time and simultaneously to all members of the public, the media and the commercial weather industry. This bill imposes just such a requirement, which is common to other Federal agencies. The responsibilities of the commercial weather industry as the only private sector producer of weather information, services and systems deserve this definition to ensure continued growth and investment in the private sector and to properly focus the government's activities. We have every right to expect these agencies to minimize unnecessary, competitive, and commercial-type activities, and to do the best possible job of warning the public about impending flash floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis, and other potentially catastrophic events. I encourage my colleagues to support this important piece of legislation."
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun May 15 2005 05:08 AM |
|
Re: Mr. Santorum's Legislation
|
Thanks for posting that Phil. I think there is enough there to read between the lines, but the memo doesn't even address all of it. What we have is a corporation whose principal is contributing to the author/sponsor of the bill, who has a specific profit motive and wishes control of public dissemenation of data. I probably should log on at some point because I botched the cut and paste on my last post, and I'm sure i will before the season starts.
And here's a companion exhibit. It's referenced in the s2k thread, but here's the direct link. What Accuweather does not address is more than conspicuous by its absence. They are attempting to frame the debate that they are protecting the public's access to data. They make no mention of the power they will wield when that access is funneled through corporate distribution points such as their own. I say bah on it and am putting my money where my mouth is by not re-subscribing to their site. I'm all for the real-time access to the data so there can be no mistaking its validity. But as a taxpayer, I'm not getting anything for free. I paid for the data that is collected. If I excercise my rights as an American to purchase additional content, then that should be my perogative or anyone else's. But that would be as a function of a weather company or service putting value added resources into the distribution of that data (e.g. 24 hour radar loops, their own private satellite data, etc.)
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=wxinfoaccess
Steve
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun May 15 2005 01:14 PM |
|
91L invest models
|
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050515 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050515 0600 050515 1800 050516 0600 050516 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 78.5W 14.5N 77.2W 15.2N 75.1W 16.0N 73.0W
BAMM 14.0N 78.5W 15.0N 78.1W 15.9N 76.4W 16.7N 74.3W
A98E 14.0N 78.5W 14.6N 78.1W 15.2N 78.0W 15.7N 77.8W
LBAR 14.0N 78.5W 14.8N 77.3W 16.1N 75.8W 17.8N 73.8W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050517 0600 050518 0600 050519 0600 050520 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 70.9W 16.3N 68.2W 15.4N 65.7W 14.9N 61.8W
BAMM 17.1N 72.2W 17.1N 69.5W 16.9N 66.5W 17.1N 61.0W
A98E 15.9N 77.2W 17.1N 75.4W 17.9N 73.2W 18.6N 70.4W
LBAR 20.2N 71.4W 24.6N 64.5W 27.2N 58.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 22KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 22KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 79.3W DIRM12 = 54DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 79.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Interesting tha the model guidance has made this run for the low in the Caribbean but no development is shown from them.Shear is horrible there for anything to get going.But the main threat will be the copius amounts of rain for the greater antilles and I am here in Puerto Rico waiting for that.Here over 9:00 inches has fallen in the past 7 days as the trough has been stationary but those amounts will increase as that low moves thru the area.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun May 15 2005 02:10 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 91L invest models
|
Looks interesting this morning..... i have also noticed the models picking up on something coming across cuba...south bahamas area in about a week or so...but way to far out to know if not...... but this could be a sign of things to come. somthing i noticed in the gfs this morning, this one "feature" looks to be coming form the pacific ocean into the caribbean. Anyway just some morning gossip... Interesting NHC model run on AL91.... looks like lots of rain for the islands!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun May 15 2005 04:02 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 91L invest models
|
that is some lackluster model support. 91L hasn't changed a whole lot for the last 48 hours. the convection is now all staying east of the broad sfc low/trough centered roughly near 13/80. shear isn't letting up.. the only thing that would compensate for that would be if the low were to start clinging to convection and tightening.. in which case it might finally start moving ene.
in various runs over the past few days, pretty much all of the models are trying to brew up low pressure near cuba to the east and northeast. none of them looks incredibly feasible, but 91L was effectively spotted days ahead by the globals, so i reckon that some manifestation of these disturbances will keep our attention in the tropics for the rest of may. as storm hunter mentioned in the previous post, there's a funny-looking pacific cross-over type disturbance too. soi keeps dipping negative; now that we're getting closer to the season these pulses are finally contributing to backing and low pressure trying to spawn in the deep tropics.
the subtropical jet is also going to start migrating north and weakening over the next couple of weeks, so the inhibiting conditions currently over the basin are going to lose ground.
think it's a fair bet we'll get an active early season.
HF 1702z15may
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun May 15 2005 04:48 PM |
|
|
Re: 91L invest models
|
little bugger doesn't seem to be going anywhere, despite the shear...interesting
however, the "wave" is at 1005mb so i can't foresee any true development at any point in the near future...the development next week alluded to by the above posters will probably keep our attention through Memorial Day, and then we'll officially kick off the season...guess i'll have to get my predictions in order soon...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun May 15 2005 05:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 91L invest models
|
it looks like 91L is starting to become a bit better organized, looking at the satellite loops this morning. NRL shows 30 mph and 1007 mb (earlier it was 1008 and before that they had 20-25 mph winds and didnt bother putting up the pressure). I have also noticed a disorganized but definate circulation just northwest of the convection, and there seems to be a bit of upper-air ridging just to the west of the convection. It seems with the organization pattern and upper-air flow that we could see a lopsided but tropical system come out of this like Gabrielle in 2001; and this system looks similar to Gabrielle about a day before classification.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun May 15 2005 07:13 PM |
|
Re: 91L invest models
|
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050515 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050515 1800 050516 0600 050516 1800 050517 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 78.1W 14.8N 76.7W 15.8N 75.7W 17.0N 75.1W
BAMM 14.1N 78.1W 14.5N 77.2W 14.9N 76.4W 15.3N 76.2W
A98E 14.1N 78.1W 14.5N 77.6W 15.2N 77.5W 15.7N 77.3W
LBAR 14.1N 78.1W 14.8N 76.7W 16.2N 75.2W 18.1N 73.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050517 1800 050518 1800 050519 1800 050520 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 74.2W 22.7N 65.8W 26.6N 52.4W 29.0N 43.8W
BAMM 16.3N 76.0W 17.7N 74.0W 18.1N 70.1W 18.1N 65.9W
A98E 16.0N 76.8W 17.2N 75.0W 18.2N 72.6W 19.1N 70.3W
LBAR 20.3N 71.2W 24.2N 65.5W 27.5N 59.3W 28.9N 55.3W
SHIP 37KTS 35KTS 25KTS 0KTS
DSHP 37KTS 35KTS 27KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 78.1W DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 78.9W DIRM12 = 63DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 79.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
The above is the 1800 utc run and it is interesting to see from the morning run to this one a diference and that is intensity.But shear is strong there.Neverless it is amazing that we are talking about this in mid may even if nothing occurs.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun May 15 2005 09:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 91L invest models
|
Anyone see the gfs 2005051518 run? interesting.....could we have two systems before June 1st? or is it my eyes? gfs still wants to create something around cuba in about a 100hrs or so and bring it ne.... hmm....and 91L wants to cross PR and head towards the atlantic high? and looks like the ukm is hinting at a pacific cross over to carb. system too..... way to early to tell... but atleast there's something to talk about, besides this bill, that in the end, in my view, will help make the private sectors more money off my TaXeS!!!!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun May 15 2005 10:07 PM |
|
Re: 91L invest models
|
What I can see is 91L now has a well defined cirualtion. At least defined enough to track. We got something here.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sun May 15 2005 11:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Quote:Jason,
Let me say this; there are SERIOUS misconceptions about this bill and what it's effects will or will not be. Most everything I have seen on here and in other locations is not what the bill is intended to do, or what the CWSU is thinking. The reason that the bill has even been presented is due to the arrogance of the leadership of NOAA dissolving a long standing agreement between themselves and the Commericial Weather industry, and REFUSING to come back to the table and hammer out a new agreement.
Want free, unfettered weather data? Better hope the Santorum Bill passes, cause you aren't likely to get some of it if it doesn't.
Sorry for the OT post...but this issue really gets me going cause the commerical vendors are getting hammered for this, when it is YOUR Governments fault this bill is proposed at all.
I must tell you that I think you are one hell of a meteoroligist and your contributions to this forum and to the public you serve are very valuable. The good senator that introduced the bill stated:
"The best way to address this problem is to require that NWS data, information, guidance, forecasts and warnings be issued in real time and simultaneously to all members of the public, the media and the commercial weather industry. This bill imposes just such a requirement, which is common to other Federal agencies."
I couldn't agree more. However, due to the poor wording, the vague 'who does what to whom' in the bill and the lack of specific non ambiguous guidelines as to how the 'final authority' is to rule and the lack of specific guarantees that the NWS will in fact be able to perform as specified above, coupled with specific warning contrary to that stated goal.
In fact, consider the following wording from the bill:
(b) COMPETITION WITH PRIVATE SECTOR.--The
20 National Weather Service shall not provide, or assist other
21 entities in providing, a service or product (other than a
22 service or product described in subsection (a)(1)(A)) that
23 is or could be provided by the private sector unless--
S 786 IS
3
1 (1) the Secretary determines that the private
2 sector is unwilling or unable to provide such service
3 or product; or
4 (2) the United States Government is obligated
5 to provide such service or product under inter-
6 national aviation agreements to provide meteorolog-
7 ical services and exchange meteorological informa-
8 tion.
To me, this states that the NWS is prohibited from achieving our mutual goal of free, unfettered access by the public. The words could be provided by the private sector says that because TWS or Accuweather or some private company COULD produce it doesn't require that it BE provided. The bill is full of such contridictions and vague wording. This makes this bill DANGEROUS as worded and should not be supported.
If it is reworded as you yourself suggest is needed ...
"The problem with the bill is that there are lots of areas that are gray or poorly worded, and there are several areas I would like to see changed...however I can assure you that the nefarious accusations that have been levied towards the CWSU aren't what is actually in the cards."
...then I might be able to support it, but not as it is. This MUST NOT become law.
I remain an ardent supporter of yours, but respectfully disagree with your conclusions in this matter. If the government *can* screw it up, it almost always does...let's don't make it easy for them to sell this farm for we will all go hungry.
Richard
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sun May 15 2005 11:32 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Mr. Santorum's Legislation
|
Quote:Steve,
Thanks for posting that Phil. I think there is enough there to read between the lines, but the memo doesn't even address all of it. ... I'm all for the real-time access to the data so there can be no mistaking its validity. But as a taxpayer, I'm not getting anything for free. I paid for the data that is collected. If I excercise my rights as an American to purchase additional content, then that should be my perogative or anyone else's. ...
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=wxinfoaccess
Steve
Thanks for that URL. Accuweather does put on its' good face here, but it does leave out the fact the bill does NOT guarantee such free information if they are willing to provide the same information. Missing are the words 'at no additional cost to the public'. In fact, it appears that if commercial entities are simply "willing" to provide the information (not necessarily at no additional cost), then the NWS would not be able to do so. This bill is badly worded and while it may be attempting to right a wrong, it is falling way short of that goal by making a legal pool of quicksand out of the attempt.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun May 15 2005 11:49 PM |
|
|
|
something interesting!!!! side note
|
i haven't seen this to often:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
555 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A
.. SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS NORTH 20 NM AND
SOUTH 60 NM.
.. UNTIL 630 PM EDT
.. AT 549 PM EDT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVED A
WATERSPOUT ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...MOVING WEST AT 5 TO MPH.
WATERSPOUTS TEND TO FORM WITHIN LONG CLOUD LINES...AND ARE MOST
LIKELY TO FORM UNDER A LARGE CLOUD BUILDUP WITH A DARK FLAT BASE.
MARINERS SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THIS WATERSPOUT IMMEDIATELY.
was a few hours ago......
someone must have some cool pics!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon May 16 2005 01:30 AM |
|
Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care...
|
Richard,
Thanks for the kind words...you aren't really the one I was pointing at with my comments...and good people can certainly disagree with out being disagreeable.
There are problems with the bill...but there are problems WITHOUT the bill too..hopefully someone can find some middle ground.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon May 16 2005 02:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
|
noticed in the caribbean section, looking somewhat busy:
CARIBBEAN...
BROAD LOW PRES...1007 MB...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N79W ALONG A SFC TROF WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE PANAMA CANAL ZONE. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES
SHOW THE LOW TO BE QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH TWO SEPARATE
CIRCULATIONS NEAR 13N79W AND 16N77W.
dosn't seem to be doing good, i saw the two swirls this afternoon... way to much shear, but that could change in a few days......
i also noticed the later down in the section....
"A DUO OF DEVELOPING SYSTEMS OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CNTRL
AMERICA BY MID-WEEK AS THEY TRACK GENERALLY TO THE E."
will they make the cross over to the caribbean?
just reading the basic TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
should set up for a fun weak of watching!
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 16 2005 01:28 PM |
|
Re: The Models
|
I was looking at the models they all now seem to want to pull something from the EPAC now to the Carib.The NOGAPS was the last to come on board.The thing I notice between the models is the time frame that they deal with the system.The CMC and NOGAPS has the system off the W coast of CAmerica in 144hrs.Then you have the UKMET and GFS with the system S of Cuba in 144hrs.The last two seem to have the system moving due UL exiting the E coast of the CONUS at that time.That would move it up over Cuba or PR then.The CMC seems to overdue the intensity.If the models still show this come Wed. or Thurs. there might be something to it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 16 2005 02:05 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Models
|
this is one of the few times that all the models seem to be predicting the same thing, and when that happens, it tends to happen
It would certainly be interesting if we did have a Pacific system develop in the Atlantic--it hasnt happened since 1989 and the last time before that was 1949
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 16 2005 02:30 PM |
|
Re: The Models
|
Yea Rabbit the intensity thing by the CMC is kinda hard to believe right now.I looked at the EPAC you can almost see a circulation @8'N and 115'W.Then you have the mess closer in.The GFS was trying to develop two lows last night is now down to one.The fact that all the models are in agreement of sorts may mean there is some bases to it.I still think that later this week will let us know.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-ir4-loop.html
forget about the 8'N deal circulation wrong directiion hehe.Look further E.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 16 2005 03:49 PM |
|
Re: EPAC system now invest
|
Luis(cycloneye) at storm2k thru it up over there and brought up is this the EPAC crossover system.Looks to be getting organized
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 16 2005 04:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: EPAC system now invest
|
Is this an odd event-that this system may actually move due east and crossover into the Carribean?
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 16 2005 04:33 PM |
|
Re: EPAC system now invest
|
You can start to see the circulation @ 9'N and 97'W on the visible
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-vis-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon May 16 2005 04:35 PM |
|
No longer an invest in ATL?
|
MM
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 16 2005 04:52 PM |
|
Re: No longer an invest in ATL?
|
Yanked this morning .The EPAC system GFS on the last run still moving the system quickly 144hrs S of Cuba.The UKMET.NOGAPS and CMC are slower now with an increase of intensity.CMC seems to be working up a new model maybe only out to 72hrs.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon May 16 2005 05:06 PM |
|
forcast is out
|
Well, the offical forcast was just came out.12-15 named storms 7-9 hurricanes 3-5 intense hurricanes.Fasten your seatbelts!!!!!
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 16 2005 05:23 PM |
|
Re: forcast is out
|
Yea I saw that
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2438.htm
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon May 16 2005 06:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: NRL now picking on 90E
|
looks like the epac system is getting picked on now.... the NRL has invest up now
East Pacific 90E Invest
i see somewhat of a swirl now
lets see what happens.....and how well the models do with it. Will it make it across the cntr america mountains?
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 16 2005 06:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: EPAC system now invest
|
the circulation is now visible
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon May 16 2005 06:42 PM |
|
Re: forcast is out
|
Interesting that the 2005 forcast is slightly higher than the 2004 forcast one year ago.Looks like all bad news.I live 1.5 miles from the beach in Ft.Lauderdale,so I am following things very intently.The forcast came over as a speical report on the local tv here.Not many happy people here.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 16 2005 07:00 PM |
|
Re: forcast is out
|
Same here. My neighbors and I live with in a stones throw of the beach. That forcast has got things rolling around here when it comes to readiness. Most of us are not waiting for mid summer to see what happens and get caught with are pants down. We`re stocking up just in case we have a repeat of last year which I pray doesn`t happen.........Weatherchef
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 16 2005 07:02 PM |
|
|
Re: forcast is out
|
I have to agree with all of you on getting ready...i live near Tampa and last seasons hurricanes literally scared me sh** less...of course it was my first season...im already getting prepared...wish you all the best of luck this season and be safe...becky
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 16 2005 07:41 PM |
|
|
Re: forcast is out
|
It will be interesting to see if Dr. Gray's revised forecast on May 31st will equal or exceed NOAA's forecasted 15 storms.
:?:
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 16 2005 07:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: NRL now picking on 90E
|
strong storms are forming around 90E
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon May 16 2005 08:11 PM |
|
|
|
Re: NRL now picking on 90E
|
Random Thought/question, if 90E does form, then cross over to the atlantic, I presume it would keep it's E. Pac name (if it retains enough of it's identity to be considered the same storm). And would laypersons get a little confused if there were 2 'A' storms? Just curious how it would be handled...
-Mark
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 16 2005 08:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: NRL now picking on 90E
|
I would think it would get the Atlantic name once it crossed the 'line' and the secondary storm will become the B storm.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Mon May 16 2005 08:20 PM |
|
|
|
Re: NRL now picking on 90E
|
That double basin scenario is pretty cool.
.... they just finished this big "hurricane awareness" conference here in Charlotte County. Wayne Sallade said he was upset that only old people came to participate.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon May 16 2005 08:27 PM |
|
Re: NRL now picking on 90E
|
>>Thanks for the kind words...you aren't really the one I was pointing at with my comments...and good people can certainly disagree with out being disagreeable.
I was one of the main advocates against the public information going through private portals before becoming public again (not that I hated everything in the bill). So if it was to me, I think I already answered the questions. In any event, I don't trust Accuweather's motives.
Steve
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon May 16 2005 09:01 PM |
|
Re: NRL now picking on 90E
|
Nor was it you Steve, or any particular person on this board. Just got my ire up a bit, that's all.
Back to the tropics....
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon May 16 2005 09:03 PM |
|
Re: NRL now picking on 90E
|
If 90E forms in the Pacific Basin, it will get the Pacific name...if it then moves into the Atlantic Basin, it will be renamed with the next available Atlantic name.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon May 16 2005 09:30 PM |
|
|
|
Re: NRL now picking on 90E
|
Thanks Jason...Yes it would be named Arlene (assuming nothing else pops up here first) but at this time of year, i wouldn't give it too much chance of developing on this side of the pond...
Actually they changed the policy on that a couple years ago... if they don't deem the storm to have 'dissipated' it will retain it's original name. The first run they had with the new policy was Iris in 2001, but for some reason they did deem the system dissipated and renamed the remnants Manuel on the Pacific side.
--HF
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon May 16 2005 10:06 PM |
|
NHC Model run - Tropical Storm Noname
|
000
WHXX01 KWBC 162005
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM NONAME (AL892005) ON 20050516 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050516 1200 050517 0000 050517 1200 050518 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 75.0W 23.5N 68.6W 22.9N 62.4W 21.0N 57.2W
BAMM 23.0N 75.0W 23.8N 72.7W 24.1N 70.6W 24.5N 68.5W
A98E 23.0N 75.0W 24.0N 76.0W 25.3N 75.2W 27.1N 72.5W
LBAR 23.0N 75.0W 24.5N 73.5W 25.9N 71.6W 26.7N 69.0W
SHIP 35KTS 31KTS 24KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 31KTS 24KTS 0KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050518 1200 050519 1200 050520 1200 050521 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 53.2W 14.5N 49.6W 13.5N 48.8W 13.0N 49.7W
BAMM 24.7N 66.0W 25.1N 59.7W 25.9N 54.5W 26.3N 51.3W
A98E 28.5N 67.9W 28.8N 58.2W 29.1N 49.4W 29.2N 45.6W
LBAR 27.1N 66.6W 27.8N 62.3W 29.6N 57.0W 33.4N 51.3W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 73.1W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 71.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 16 2005 10:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: NRL now picking on 90E
|
good banding and it is becoming more organized
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 16 2005 10:58 PM |
|
|
|
Something Else?
|
9N 85W almost directly east of 90E. there is a cyclonic spin
any thoughts or just a eager eye?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon May 16 2005 11:18 PM |
|
Whats in the caribbean?
|
it may just be my eyes, but is there something southwest of PR? kinda where all the models are trying to hint at something?
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon May 16 2005 11:37 PM |
|
Re: Whats in the caribbean?
|
That is what was 91L that will dump plenty of rain here more than what has fallen already since may 5 in Puerto Rico.I am concerned about massive flooding as the grounds are oversaturated.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon May 16 2005 11:59 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Whats in the caribbean?
|
Starting to spin down a little as daylight begins to wane...either way, Luis is going to see a boat load of rain from this system...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 12:56 AM |
|
|
|
Re: North America 00 UTC GFS
|
Anyone seen the North America 00 UTC GFS run (5/15/06)... at 100hrs? Not sure what the model is picking up on for friday/saturday 5/20-21 ....near cuba. Must be a 90E?... or something (rain)
..... take a look http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_slp"_l_loop.shtm MSLP 1000 -500mb
**recommend high speed connection***
from TWD 8:05pm nhc
CARIBBEAN...
1006 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W WITH A
TROF TRAILING SW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W....
"IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK OVER CNTRL AMERICA AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS AND HEADS TO THE E/NE."
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue May 17 2005 01:21 AM |
|
|
|
Re: North America 00 UTC GFS
|
Thanks for the heads up!
Interesting! However, this is last night's GFS run. (00Z 5/16/05). New GFS won't be out for another hour or so.
If you follow the charts through 136 hours, you will notice that it is progged to a 500mb vortice. A very small vortice, that dissipates before entering the Florida Straits.
Also note on the 250mb charts the SW shear at greater than 30kts. Not particularly favorable for formation.
Maybe one of the Mets can give us his interpretation.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 01:32 AM |
|
|
|
Re: North America 00 UTC GFS
|
yeah i saw the shear..... just trying to figure out how something from EPAC would make it all the way to cuba.....in a bad environment....(shear)
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue May 17 2005 01:52 AM |
|
|
|
Re: EPAC
|
I can't recall any EPAC disturbance or greater moving into the Caribbean. Atlantic storms can and do move into the E Pacific from time to time. E Pacific storms generally become hazards and or rain producers to the Desert Southwest and California, before moving further eastward.
But there is a first time for everything.
I just checked the model updates and the 84 to 120 hr GFS isn't scheduled to complete it's run until 0428Z or 12:28 AM EDT.
**Note: Jim Cantore at TWC just updated his sat and radar imagery on the Puerto Rico area. System seems to be on the decline. Sun going down and loss of daytime heating.
Still an area to watch as it's been very persistant/ stagnant.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 02:16 AM |
|
|
|
Re: EPAC
|
>>> Sun going down and loss of daytime heating.
hmmm...i think someone said that somewhere...perhaps the last post of the previous page?
anyhoo...it's just a rainmaker, but it could still pose trouble for the islands...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 17 2005 03:39 AM |
|
Re: forcast is out
|
Dr Gray is already hinting that he will increase his numbers.EVERYTHING points to a very bad season.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 17 2005 04:43 AM |
|
Re: forcast is out
|
Check out the cmc run
00 5/17
cmc 2005051700
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 05:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: forcast is out
|
forecast you mean?
there were sixteen named storms in 2003, and it wasnt a 'really bad' season because only isabel and claudette hit the us as hurricanes and they were 1/2 range at the time. several big ones, but they did the usual recurve or weaken routines before hitting. we can have sixteen storms again, and if there isn't a charley or hugo type storm in the mix then.. well, so what. the low number of hits we've had in the active span since 1995 contrasts very well against the historic averages for the number of major hits we'd expect given a certain number of storms.. but looking back to the 19th century the number of hits and the fact that they picked on more of the u.s. coastline, along with some strong hurricanes hitting earlier than we usually would expect nowadays. i dunno, the perspective i have is that 2004 was bad, but all it takes is a slow season with one good solid hit in just the right place and we get a nightmare scenario, or a repeat today of some historic season activity that we haven't seen in decades or even in the last century that could easily eclipse 2004.
i get sort of irritated seeing the news columns today, all the networks poorly masking their chance to scare-monger behind the release of the noaa forecast. any season could be worse than 2004, with less storms even, if they just hit in the right places or don't spin down on their landfall runs. but then again it would be just like most every year recently, with a hell of a lot of storms and hardly any that come calling. don't anyone follow the media misconstruing the official takes saying that they 'expect that things will be worse than 2004', because we're still months from the core of the season, and its those aug-oct storms that almost always matter most.
worthy mention that SOI is way negative again, and the tropics have responded with strong backing (notice the low level flow in the eastpac is out of the west). if it were jamming all the way to the caribbean we'd have some serious cyclogenesis trying to take place, but the best we can do with the chaotic surface pattern over much of the region is have a bunch of disconnected vorticity along the itcz and rim of the subtropical jet... e.g. a couple of weak gyres in the eastpac and caribbean. models still trying to brew up lows from 60w to 100w, but they keep meandering between runs, and nothing consistent has materialized yet in the numerical models or real world. the jet has lifted enough so that a system could actually organize at low latitudes, but all of the forcing and evacuating seems to be along the jet rim, and at the edges of the ridge (backing in the eastpac and the easterlies in the atlantic are feeding convection near puerto rico and south of the tehuantepec, but not in the sweet spot north of panama). the pattern generating all the disturbed weather continues, though, and given time and pressure something may yet organize out of all this. the eastpac disturbance looks fine enough, but it's at such a latitude and so involved in the itcz that it won't focus energy quickly.. mind only if it breaks loose and starts NE like the global progs seem to suggest. as for the caribbean side, there's still nothing getting busy developing, just a bunch of playing around. i'm sure luis wishes the playing would stop. sorry brother, maybe after the rainy season.
'nuff o that rambling. i should post when i'm at least half awake. do forgive.
HF 0615z17may
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue May 17 2005 12:03 PM |
|
Re: forcast is out
|
Yes HF I would like to see the sun come out here after many days of cloudy and rainy days as troughiness has been stationary but I hope that it gets out of here.Rainfall totals between 3-8 inches haved fallen since 6:00 PM EDT last evening as the orografic effects enhance the precipitation.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 02:11 PM |
|
|
NOAA Updated Forecast
|
Here is NOAA's updated 2005 forecast...gee, they really go out on a limb with this one...12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors...how's about putting out some real concrete numbers, like we do? between this and the santorum bill, i'm a tad bummed about how our tax dollars are being spent on weather research...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 17 2005 02:12 PM |
|
Re: forcast is out
|
Every year they get better at hurricane tracking and forcasting,the numbers don't lie.Just look at the tech.we have developed over the years.It all comes down to numbers,last year there was 6 major storms,they predicted 4.This year they predict 3-5 major storms,the more major storms the better chance of the u.s. getting hit.The average is 2 major storms.It is a numbers game.Of course you could only get one major storm for the year and if it hit a major u.s. city it would be big news.But again,you have go by the odds,more major storms,better chance of u.s. landfall.To me this is just common sence.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 02:15 PM |
|
Re: EPAC making the Track
|
The EPAC system seems to be making the supposed track that the models are predicting.The question remains how intense the system gets and the where it crosses.The system is moving @ 4kts now I think that is slower than the GFS model.I would expect that in the next 24hrs. the system to be upgraded as long as it stays away from the shear to it's N.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/EPAC/90E.INVEST/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html
floater on EPAC
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 02:45 PM |
|
|
Re: North America 00 UTC GFS
|
hey guys! im new too this but i was going too ask does the month of june look good for furthur developement and how bad do u think it will be? my mom is coming down here for a visit on june 19 is it looking good?
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 02:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: EPAC making the Track
|
so u think that this could be our first storm?
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 02:50 PM |
|
Re: North America 00 UTC GFS
|
I don`t think you have much to worry about.Watch out for your everyday thunderstorms though.......Weatherchef
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 03:02 PM |
|
|
|
Re: North America 00 UTC GFS
|
was that answering the question bout the storm or my other question?
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 03:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: North America 00 UTC GFS
|
yeah i live in new smyrna beach and i was wondering if i should purchase plywood before hand this year or not. will still havent got our roofing supplies we order yet i hope we get them on time for this season.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 03:10 PM |
|
Re: North America 00 UTC GFS
|
I was answering your question about your mom comimg to Florida, I think the state of Florida is in the clear when it comes to tropical weather. As for the disturbance that the rest of the guys are watching, I would ask one of the pros like Clark , H.F, or Phil.........Weatherchef
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 03:15 PM |
|
|
|
welcome
|
nl,
welcome aboard! if you read these boards, you will learn much and we will attempt to answer any questions you may have. one question NO ONE can answer, however, is "will there be a storm at xyz on June 18?" all you can do is be prepared from June through November and stay abreast of the topics. as far as planning a vacation during a certain date, even to hurricane prone areas, do not worry about it...the chances are very slim that any future development will have any affect at all, and even so, you will ample time to prepare (if you are staying) and advanced notice if you wish to leave.
bear in mind that the "peak" of the season is from about August 15 thru October 15, so during this two month period there is a greater chance for tropical development. tell you mom to come on down!
again welcome aboard...
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 03:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: welcome
|
hello nl welcome to the site...i am new also and yet ive already learned so much about hurricanes and their peak seasons...these guys are awesome...if you ever have any questions they have no problem answering them for you...no question is a stupid question...so feel to free to ask anything...
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 04:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: EPAC making the Track
|
now has T# 1.0/1.0 25kts its on its way (CI#)
hr: this belongs in the other storm basins forum...
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue May 17 2005 04:08 PM |
|
East Pacific System
|
Well looks like the system in the eastern Pacific is getting much better organised now, with deep convection and some banding features. Wouldnt be surprised to see this classified possibly later today. This mornings TRMM pass showed winds of 25 to 30 knots with this system. The NHC also continues running models on this system, which now bring it to near Tropical Storm intensity within 36 hours, and continue to take it across central America to just south of western Cuba.
000
WHXX01 KMIA 171245
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20050517 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050517 1200 050518 0000 050518 1200 050519 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.7N 95.4W 10.5N 94.6W 11.5N 94.5W 12.6N 94.4W
BAMM 9.7N 95.4W 10.5N 94.9W 11.2N 94.5W 11.9N 94.1W
LBAR 9.7N 95.4W 10.6N 94.5W 11.8N 94.0W 13.4N 93.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050519 1200 050520 1200 050521 1200 050522 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 94.2W 16.7N 92.2W 21.0N 88.4W 26.3N 83.8W
BAMM 12.8N 93.4W 15.3N 89.6W 19.4N 85.2W 22.7N 80.7W
LBAR 14.9N 93.8W 17.6N 92.8W 19.7N 88.5W 23.1N 81.1W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 43KTS 31KTS
DSHP 44KTS 32KTS 30KTS 23KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 95.4W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 96.2W DIRM12 = 83DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 96.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 17 2005 04:12 PM |
|
bermuda high?????
|
Does anyone have any thoughts about how strong or weak the bermuda high will be in August and Sept.Also where it will be.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 04:23 PM |
|
|
|
Re: bermuda high?????
|
this is from today's palm beach post:
"Another rescuer would be a weakening of the Bermuda High, the ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic that helped steer all those hurricanes into Florida last year. But Jim Lushine, a forecaster at the National Weather Service's Miami office, said it's still unclear whether the high will weaken enough to put Florida out of harm's way."
The full article can be found here.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 04:32 PM |
|
Re: bermuda high?????
|
I would think one might get a better idea about the high come late June or mid-July.If The Alley is right on there predictions then I would suspect a more active GOM season.The fact remains that every storm has it's own set of variables that affect it's intensity and path.I have dropped a little tool to help in the understaning how Lows affect the path of storms.
http://meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/movncane/movncane.htm
This should show one that it is really fruitless to worry about something weeks in advance because of all the variables that take place.One should on the other hand just be calm and prepared in the event should something happen.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 04:37 PM |
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
Yea Rich wind field at the NRL about says it.Alot of 25-30kts winds organization only looking better all the time.This could be really interesting if it crosses.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...F_NAME=ep902005
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 17 2005 05:08 PM |
|
Re: bermuda high?????
|
That is very cool Javin!!!!
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 05:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
it is still holding up. we might have a TD soon
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 05:52 PM |
|
|
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
guys i know you are excited about the EPAC storm, but please keep those comments off the main board and put them into the "Other Storm Basins" forum! Thanks. should this form and try to cross over into our basin, then you can certainly post about it on the main board!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 05:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
NRL has a put up a Tropical Cyclone formation Alert
alert
(which means NHC will follow with a td?)
now looks like will get the first of the season for the epac....and then maybe later the atlantic?
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 05:57 PM |
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
I think you might be right...Weatherchef... [image]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes[/image]
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 06:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1006 MB CENTERED NEAR 10N 95.5W OR ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AT 17/1200 MOVING SLOWLY NE.
CONVECTION HAS GROWN NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING BECOMING MORE
APPARENT. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
UPPER WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE WITH EVIDENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDS FANNING OUT ON THE WESTERN SIDE WITH A DIVERGENT
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE NE AS IT IS CAUGHT UP IN SW FLOW THRU A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE... A BIT UNUSUAL FOR THE EPAC. . SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.
TWDEP
| Liz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue May 17 2005 06:16 PM |
|
Re: bermuda high?????
|
Very good visual on how Highs and Lows steer a storm
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 06:24 PM |
|
|
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
just read the twd atlantic.....
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 17 MAY 2005
read the discussion for GOM....last line...
THIS SHOULD ALLOW.....
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 06:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
It states we will get some precipitation from this. Are you reading anything else regarding this?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue May 17 2005 06:58 PM |
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
Hey guys -- it's nice and all, but like Phil mentioned, it's something for the Other Basins forum (click on "Forum" in the left sidebar, then look for the Other Basins forum). If it crosses into the Atlantic, then it's something to watch here. The moisture lifting northward in response to a trough over the western U.S. is moreso the moisture near the subtropical jet axis -- i.e. the moisture already present into the Caribbean -- and not in association with this system. Anything that would move towards the Gulf, no matter where its origins may be, would be sheared apart before doing anything of consequence. Rainfall, as the NHC/TPC noted, would be the only nuisance to watch out for -- but we see that on occasion this time of year regardless.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 07:02 PM |
|
|
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
not yet. looks like a chance of rain this weekend for extreme south florida/cuba.... does anyone see a swirl between jamica and south cuba? i was just looking at vis in the area and it caught my eye. i am looking for local obs right now... it seems interesting, but could be nothing!
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 07:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
Nrl has it as noname http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
oops wrong thread look in other basins 90E Strenghtens
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 17 2005 07:21 PM |
|
Re: East Pacific System
|
Haha! Look at the 12z GFDL on 90E! Has a major cane hitting Guatamala, then re-intensifying to hurricane status in the western caribbean running southeast of Miami through the Bahamas!! Caution: for entertainment purposes only (ATTM) :
Not good for the poor folks down there though
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue May 17 2005 07:26 PM |
|
|
|
Carib stuff
|
Well, it looks like everything down there has fizzled, despite some low level swirls that keep popping up, they're too close to land and way too sheared to really get anything organized over on that end. but it's still fun to watch to see if anything gets together, which I'd put at about a 1 in 100 chance...
-Mark
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 08:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
EDIT: ok, ok
Oops...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 08:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
don't now what to say cept that that the wind at 950mb. and its a model?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 08:23 PM |
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
i recommend everyone read Clark's post in the "other storm basins" forum...we could have some atl action this weekend/next week from NONAME in the EastPAC, which he feels could not only become a hurricane but a major cane! if this energy were able to cross central america and get into the atl. basin, we would be looking at the first May storm in the at. in 25 years! where she (arlene, if it became named) goes is still uncertain, but it'd be interesting nonetheless...
i'd recommend everyone getting their 2005 "predictions" in a little early...just visit the "2005 Storm Forum" (the link just below the main board). Post your seasonal prediction and your date for the first hurricane...as long as you are a registered user, you are welcome to participate!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 17 2005 08:37 PM |
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
I think someone has to take the GFDL model,open up the window and throw it out. If we have to deal with this model all season I'm going back to the weather channel.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 08:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Phil, where is Clarks post?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 08:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Quote:
Phil, where is Clarks post?
It is in the "OTHER STORM BASINS" section...but i'll make it easy for you...here it is:
"Don't discount the GFDL solution just yet. Conditions are there for rapid intensification once this thing gets going, despite the direction of motion. The SSTs are very warm -- 30+ C -- in the region, shear is low, and the subtropical jet to the north will only assist in enhancing outflow while in the east Pacific. As the storm organizes and becomes better defined, we could see one round of rapid intensification before landfall, perhaps even to major hurricane status (as the GFDL calls for). I wouldn't go 125kt yet, but 100kt is possible. The people along the entire Central American coast -- Pacific and Caribbean sides -- need to watch this one. Two-three days is the time frame we're looking at, particularly the latter end of that.
As for evolution after landfall: what path the storm takes across land will determine how much survives into the Caribbean. Obviously, the narrower the path, the stronger the remnant circulation. A deep trough should be located off-shore of the U.S. coast as it re-emerges into the Caribbean, but a cut-off low over the Gulf (not the one there now, but down the road 4 days) as a ridge builds across the central Plains may interact with the storm, resulting in a deviation to the track from what we might expect. Best bet now is to go with the "flow" and call for a continued NE progression, similar to that shown in the GFDL. Shear is going to be pretty high no matter where it goes here, though, and the evolution may not end up entirely tropical as a result.
We may well get our first Atlantic May storm in nearly 25 years in the next week. I'm not going to say that it will happen for certain, but the ingredients are there to potentially see something. I'm more confident in something happening here than I was before, and I'll leave it at that for now. Watch this storm in the EPac though -- it's certainly going to affect the coast of Mexico/Cent. America pretty hard in a few days' time. "
This post was brought to us by Clark...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 08:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
it is interesting on TD 1-E to look at the forecast track out 72+ hours
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 87.0W... NORTH OF HONDURAS
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 82.0W... NEAR CAYMAN ISLANDS
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
they are officially forecasting it to enter the NW Caribbean as at least a TD
also, i just looked at the GFDL, am i seeing what i think i see?
a tropical storm south of Cuba by Saturday afternoon and a hurricane in the Bahamas by Sunday??
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 09:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Thanks Phil... this is absolutely crazy! But the drama continues I guess.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 09:20 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
its even more interesting when you see the forecast
this is for real
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 09:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
well...... 5day forecast keeps it as td? 5day
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 09:44 PM |
|
Bizarre stuff
|
Who'd thunk it? We're looking at rare May system moving toward Central America.
The NHC intensity forecast is pretty interesting. They're basically calling for a fairly weak storm throughout, but the possiblity exists for a much stronger system (perhaps a hurricane). For now, the depression is in an area that is favorable for development. A hurricane seems possible, but I think a moderate/strong TS at landfall is a bit more reasonable (per NHC).
After the crossing of Central America, what's left of the system will have to be looked at. A trough will likely have dipped into the Caribbean by that time, so it is possible that the system will get torn to shreds. An alternate scenario is that the system begins to take on some frontal characteristics. In any event, TD 1E bears some watching for folks on both sides.
The oddity seemingly continues...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue May 17 2005 09:48 PM |
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Hurricane near Cuba isn't likely to happen. But something along the lines of what the NHC says may well happen.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 09:59 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
I don't think it will make it over the mountains of central america, unless it gets to at least a CAT 2 before landfalling. Either way, does central america have a way of warning for hurricanes? It may be a stupid question, but it would seem logical, b/c a hurricane doesn't normally flow the opposite the direction of the prevailing winds...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
I still say that it is possible to have a TS in the Caribbean by Sunday
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
now that i agree is a possibility
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
if it makes it across C.A. somewhat intact
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Tropical Storm Andres in early June 1997 moved eastward and even southeast there
Andres
Andres made it across, but did not redevelop though, but it was being sheared quite alot from the moment it formed, and had weakened to a weak TD before landfall
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
If my memmory serves me correct, there was one cyclone that switched basins (and subsequently its name) more than once. I can't find where I read this. Anyone know of what I am referring to?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
it was in 1961
On November 1 1961, Hurricane Hattie moved into the Eastern Pacific, became Tropical Storm Simone, turned north, hit Mexico on November 3, dissipated, moved over the Bay of Campeche on November 4, and was reclassified and given a third name--Tropical Storm Inga.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Quote:
If my memmory serves me correct, there was one cyclone that switched basins (and subsequently its name) more than once. I can't find where I read this. Anyone know of what I am referring to?
Earl?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:35 PM |
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Nice work! Both of you.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
OK, help me out here. If the storm switched basins and survived, then what? I mean I understand the directions of storms moving east to west. But, west to east seems strange. Would it get caught up and move into the GOM or keep on truckin' against the grain into the Atlantic? Make any sense?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
i just remembered another one--Mitch in 1998
the center was over the Pacific for a short time, although it was never classified, which is why the name stayed teh same in the Bay of Campeche (this might be the one you were thinking of)
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:37 PM |
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Just took a quick look at the latest visible imagery, and has anyone else noticed the low over the Dominican Republic (formerly 91L) has started to get beeter organised. It seems quite compact, but there appears to definitely be some organisation there. Any thoughts?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:44 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Well, hurricanes don't necessarily always follow the prevailing winds (jet) per se, but are much more influenced by trofs and ridges. In this case, there happens to be a trof in the southwest which allows the cyclone to override the prevailing wind flow, as it is very weak this time of year.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
i just looked at a topograpy map
high mountains in Central America
i still think that it could hit as a tropical storm and regenerate as a TS again in the Caribbean, because in 1998 Mitch hit as a barely Cat I and moved VERY slowly over the mountains for 5 days, and still managed to regenerate as a tropcial storm
this is expected to be a tad weaker, but it will be moving much faster
I am making an official forecast on this:
Landfall 75-80 mph intensity, and about 24 hours after getting into the Caribbean, it will probably strengthen to a TS, probably a hybrid system as Mitch did in 1998 (look for it to possibly be classified as a subtropical storm there)
as for the easterly flow, the low in the Caribbean we have had there the last few days has probably had some influence of weakening the easterly flow
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue May 17 2005 10:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Quote:
Just took a quick look at the latest visible imagery, and has anyone else noticed the low over the Dominican Republic (formerly 91L) has started to get beeter organised. It seems quite compact, but there appears to definitely be some organisation there. Any thoughts?
it looks like it's getting sheared apart. So I don't see anything happening...
-Mark
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 11:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
so what we are saying is we might have a ts in may? is that normal stuff? i think its wierd and does that explain the reason why such a high probality for landfalls this season? this stuff is so cool. looks like ill have a good surfing season, well except for the sharks. lol
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 11:09 PM |
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
It is possible....possible... but I think it may be a long shot at this time.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 11:29 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
If anything were to occur it would be weakened; i do not see anything of substance sustaining life for long.
Still, time will tell.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 11:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Thanks rabbit:
According to this:
http://www.ejournal.unam.mx/atmosfera/Vol16-4/ATM16401.pdf
...only six Tropical cyclones have made landfall around Guatemala. All tropical storm intensity...no hurricanes. Perhaps this will be another first, much like the south Atlantic system that hit Brazil last year.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 12:12 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
thought that system looked healthy last night...
based on the outflow signature, and the amount of low level convergence clear in the visibles, i'd agree with some here and say that the nhc intensity forecast is conservative. sure it's going "backwards", but y'all remember lenny...
i don't think there's an el salvador landfall i've ever come across in the historic database, so this could be a first if it keeps ene. this thing should become adrian and it may be more than just a borderline ts/hurricane.. something that section of coast doesn't typically see regardless. if the system crosses it will probably be disorganized at the surface and shallower, so the rapid ene movement late in the forecast period may be overdone. if it comes off still as a deep system, yeah, it'll be sheared and racing ene... a shallower system might drift and slowly spin down or build back up slowly if it can find a shear gap. clark mentioned some evolution of features in the mid latitudes that could shelter it or give it a more poleward path, but that's far down the road for a system with little climatology.
by the way, if it survives (and the nhc doesn't decide that it has 'reformed') the trek across central america it will still be called adrian.. the nhc changed their convention on that a couple years ago (about the same time they changed the naming convention for subtropical systems).
this will also confuse our season numbers from the outset. in my book this will be a pacific system and not count into my atlantic totals.. and they already need all the help they can get. in my book a system counts in the basin it formed in, in the month it formed in.. regardless of where it goes or when it reaches different tiers of intensity.
so anyway.. may 19th we get the end of the star wars series and the beginning of guatemala/el salvador hurricanes. i've got a conference to hit with a bunch of met/climo people that evening, so i guess we'll have something to talk about.
HF 0111z18may
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 12:26 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
may 19th we get the end of the star wars series and the beginning of guatemala/el salvador hurricanes
Well Hank, you just combined my two favorite subjects. You made my day.
As for as this being the first real cyclone that this area has had.... well, ever, could we be looking at major loss of life? Guatemala hasn’t done too well in the past with this sort of thing (ie, mitch).
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 02:40 AM |
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Keith234 -- the jet is directly influenced by the positions of the jets and ridges. In fact, jets are often found between the two where the height gradient (the difference in heights over an area) is the greatest. That comes out of the mathematical framework of the weather.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 19 2005 02:01 AM |
|
IS IT POSSIBLE?!?!?
|
im jw..is it possible for this thing to go over c.a into the bahamas and then on its way to the us coast..if so, where on the coast would you say??
.ryan.
----------------
I have experienced no hurricanes, and thats no fun
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 19 2005 02:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Carib stuff
|
Quote:
Keith234 -- the jet is directly influenced by the positions of the jets and ridges. In fact, jets are often found between the two where the height gradient (the difference in heights over an area) is the greatest. That comes out of the mathematical framework of the weather.
trof is just a buckle in the jet, and so is a ridge. i'll remember that one. BTW, don't you mean trofs, not jet (first sentence)?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat May 21 2005 05:08 AM |
|
Where's This Thing Going?
|
hey guys, its been a while..i hear theres a depression headed for cuba and the bahamas, where is it going after that possoibly to the us coast?
please lemme know, thanks
ryan :)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jun 03 2005 11:52 PM |
|
Re: Home Weather Station
|
great site im in palm bay and its everything i need and more good job!
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 04 2005 12:00 AM |
|
Re: Where's This Thing Going?
|
It is just a very weak low.... mostly just a rain maker and not much more at this point. Should head north possibly toward the Panhandle of FL, as a rain event and maybe a little surf.