| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat May 28 2005 08:20 PM |
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Pre-Season Warmup
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This is Memorial Day weekend, the traditional kick-off of the summer season. Climatologically speaking we're at the very end of spring now, even if astronomical summer begins around June 21. Wednesday next week is the first of June, when the Atlantic basin season begins.
Chances are very high that nothing will happen in the next week, but to feed interest for the time being the good Dr. Gray has given us the updated season numbers (or at least had them released as of Thursday, five days prior to their announced date). They are on the high side to say the least--15 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes. To put that into perspective, that is Arlene-Bret-Cindy-Dennis-Emily-Franklin-Gert-Harvey-Irene-Jose-Katrina-Lee-Maria-Nate-Ophelia. Plenty of company. Last year we were at 15/9/6 (or one less if you prefer to exclude Nicole)... so Gray's numbers are more or less a rehash of 2004.
The cited reasons for such a forecast are the large area of positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and a neutral to weak-warm ENSO state. These numbers are troubling to folks who do not want a hurricane paying them a visit this year. The key, as always, will be where the storms go as opposed to how many there are. That is a tougher call to make... check out Rob Mann's forum post link of May 25 if you want to read one school of thought on what is coming up. There will be more to come on that line of topic as we get closer to the heart of the season.
HF 2115z28may
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
SST Forecast
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
(primary links added)
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun May 29 2005 04:38 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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Hopefully we will have plently to look at and track, which looks like whats going to happen, but hopefully not have a bunch of them hit land like last year. Cheers!
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 30 2005 12:37 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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Even though it should be taken with a large pinch of salt, the GFS model is beginning to hint at possible systems sometime next week.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 30 2005 02:33 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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I was reading the tropical discussion this morning that commented on the AFrican dust cloud prohibiting some moisture in the Caribbean this morning. Also looking at the list of names and noting the similarities to popular forecasters both at the National Level and the local level. My eyes beadily turn to the name GERT and I shudder thinking this is the name of a CAT 5 hurricane. Blunt, short and ferocious. Likely to stare you down over your box of twinkies and and hot soda pop. (disClaimer: I am not even a good amateur at forecasting. So I prefer to look at the names and decide how threatening the names sound.) Charley, Frances, Jean and IVAN, were all dignified sounding names and they did a number on Florida. Good luck to anyone who gets a visit from GERT.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 30 2005 05:12 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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Yes, Gert certainly has that kinda sound to it, huh? Interesting to note that a storm with the name of Gert has never failed to reach hurricane status.
| vvvteddybearvvv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon May 30 2005 05:46 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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sorry for my lack of knowldege but what is the gfs and were can i look at this
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Mon May 30 2005 05:49 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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No problem: The GFS is an overused forecasting model.
You can find it, and several other models, (gfdl, etc) at the link that Hank provided just a few post back:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs
| vvvteddybearvvv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon May 30 2005 06:21 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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thanks
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon May 30 2005 07:52 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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Quote:
Even though it should be taken with a large pinch of salt, the GFS model is beginning to hint at possible systems sometime next week.
*grins* maybe if that pinch of salt were a salt lick *grins*
still way too cold for any of the low pressures to develop into anything. Of course, there's a first time for everything.
-Mark
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 30 2005 08:28 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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Cold? Where?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 30 2005 09:13 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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The sea surface temps are above what they were this time last year but I agree it may be too premature for any real activity to form.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 30 2005 09:15 PM |
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Re: Pre-Season Warmup
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I don't know about the cold SST's in the GOM are rising stesdily now and the Atlantic basin is HOT.The item that will inhibit development in the near term is shear.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html