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We have had above average rain in south Florida this May,does that mean a weak Bermuda high?And does a weak Bermuda high mean south Fl. will be spared?

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In todays local paper they have a "expert" say that he can go back 75 years and prove that rain fall in May means a low chance of Florida getting hit.He states that in 1992 Florida had the 2nd dryest May ever,and that is when Andrew hit.Alot of talk about this here.

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Just remember, 'Correlation does not equate to causation'
About the only way I could see any linkage between rainfall in florida and hurricane hits would be some sort of larger causation factor that affects both Rainfall totals in florida and the formation/track of hurricanes in the atlantic.

Be an interesting study of the larger weather patterns... I wonder if I could use it for a masters thesis?
-Mark

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This guy,and many others think that if we get alot of rain here in May,That meanes the Bermuda High is weak.And that will save us from Hurricanes.

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In todays local paper they have a "expert" say that he can go back 75 years and prove that rain fall in May means a low chance of Florida getting hit.He states that in 1992 Florida had the 2nd dryest May ever,and that is when Andrew hit.Alot of talk about this here.

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Now I thought that having little rainfall in May was an indicator that El Nino was not strong or not present, which would lead to increased tropical activity. The Bermuda High was a directional steering thing which doesn't affect activity only the direction in which it travels. I didn't think that rainfall and El Nino affected the Bermuda High. Make sense or am I really off?

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Regardless of the forecast, prepardness is the key...most prepardness items are cheap and relatvely nonperishable. Remember that no matter what we in the media, the National Weather Service, the Red Cross, or any governmnent agency do, YOU are ultimately responsible for you and your family's safety.

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Keith234 -- actually, El Nino events bring about enhanced rainfall to Florida. La Nina events are very, very dry here -- such as we saw in 1998 and 1999 with the vast expanses of burning forest land. Precipitation distributions with El Nino vs. normal for the entire US: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/papers/us_climate_enso_events/predjf.en.gif

It sort of runs in contrast to what the quotes from the article would suggest for such a scenario and thus forms part of why one needs to take such blanket statements with a grain of salt. The data fits his conclusion, but not why.

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Those of you alive in the early 70's will remember that a LOT of climate scientists were trumpting the fact we were definately headed into a new "Ice Age"...now we are hearing nothing but "Global Warming is a known fact". If you make a wild enough claim, I can pretty much guarantee that you can find a scientist somewhere that will back it up!

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I don't really see anything happening with this system unless it can somewhat detach itself from the midlatitude flow and move southeast from its present location, which isn't terribly likely in my view. More likely than anything however, it's just going to provide south & central Florida with more rain in a day or two.

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That's not good news. We've already had nearly 8 inches of rain at my house. My backyard has been reduced to three feet beyond my back door. The last thing we need in Ft. Myers is more rain.

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A major pattern change has taken shape over the east coast, with a 500 mb ridge now over the east coast, and a trof on the west coast. Right now, teleconnections are not favorable for a "southeast ridge", so for now looks like a wet June for Florida.

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