MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Jul 04 2005 11:43 PM
Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

8:00PM
Cindy is approaching the Louisiana coastline as a strong tropical storm, with a pressure of 992 mb, it may be a rough night there in Louisiana-- if the weather warnings for the area does not tell that tale as is. The approach toward New Orleans that Cindy has may cause some surge as well. I hope this doesn't wind up catching some people in the area off guard.



Dennis has strengthened slightly over the day, and may be a hurricane in a day or two. A Hurricane Watch is now up for Jamaica because of this. And the Caymans will likely follow soon as well

A full new update will come around the time of the NHC's 11pm update.

2:15PM
See Clark's Blog Update Below this news article for more thoughts on Cindy and Dennis.

10:45AM
Tropical Depression #4 is now Tropical Storm Dennis. The earliest "D" named storm in recorded history for the Atlantic Basin. Dennis will likely to continue to strengthen. Tropical Storm Watches are up for Hati and the Dominican Republic.

Cindy is gaining a bit of strength as well and may well be a moderate to strong Tropical Storm upon landfall. Continue to watch this.

I know a lot are wondering aobut Dennis' future track and we'll be updating comments on that as time goes along. Right now there is a lot of long range uncertainty. So it really is too early to say where in the US the storm will track, but Florida, and the Gulf States will need to watch this one closely. Anything now is speculation.

Jamaica and Cuba will be dealing with Dennis soon as well. There are no real reason I can see that would prevent Dennis from becoming a hurricane over the next day or two.

Got a question, have an observation you have seen?, interesting link, reply and let everyone know.

More to come later...

7AM
Tropical Storm Cindy has formed from Tropical Depression Three in the Gulf, Tropical storm Warnings have been issued for Louisiana, and eastward to Pascagoula, Mississippi. Including New Orleans.

The storm remains still somewhat disorganized, and upper level winds aren't all that favorible for it to get much stronger. However, it still has a shot maybe to become a moderate to strong Tropical Storm. Thankfully i don't think it can get beyond that.





TD#4 continues to look better organized this morning and will likely become Tropical Storm Dennis later today. The forecast there is for it to arrive in the eastern Gulf, after crossing Cuba. The margin of error will keep us floridians watching very closely over the next few days. Other areas along the Gulf should keep watch too, after dealing with Cindy.




Original Update
Fireworks on July 4th in the Tropics. Thankfully neither are really big boomers. But will need to be watched, especially TD#4.

Tropical Depression #3 remains disorganized, and has relocated the center to the North. The National Hurricane Center has placed Tropical Storm Watches up along the Coast of Louisiana, excepting New Orleans and points east. The system may become Cindy before it strikes land. It's still a difficult storm to find the exact center of, and it may reform itself again.



Tropical Depression #4 has formed in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, and the trends have it going through the larger islands in the Western Caribbean, and eventually making its way closer to Florida. This will require close watch over the next few days for us in Florida. As well as those in the Caribbean Including Hati, Cuba, and Jamaica. They will all want to watch the storm closely. Land interaction with the islands will determine the future impact on any US landfall. Florida and the Gulf coast must keep a watch on this one during the week. As the forecasted intensity puts it at Hurricane Strength.

Again, Tropical Depression #4 will be one to watch over the coming week (very likely to be Dennis). For US Interests in Florda along the Southern, Western and Pandhandle coastline. Unfortunately.

Event Related Links

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Cindy:
Animated Model Plot of Cindy
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Cindy
Color Satellite of Gulf of Mexico
Mobile Bay Long range Radar
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
New Orleans Long range radar
Visible Satellite Loop of Cindy

Dennis
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Jul 04 2005 11:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

I have to tell you: I don't know why they didn't include the greater N.O. area except for this: they're not all that sure that the track isn't going to pull a little more to the right in the next 36 hours. Who knows what it will do?
TD#4: Please don't let those models verify. I've had enough of this already. Just keep going west.............


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:36 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

test reply..

I don't want to downplay TD#3 too much. It is in the Gulf, after all. It will need to be watched too, especially with the center reforming.

TD#4 is going to be the lion's share of discussion this week, I have a feeling. if anyone notices anything interesting with either system, please put up a reply here.


Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:50 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

... I have a bad feeling about this one.

edited to remove remarks~danielw


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:59 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

As spock would say......"intersting Captain"........and so it begins again.....

I'll be glued to this site all week long......we're already soaked to the gills in Central florida......


dem05
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:01 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

Colleen,
N.O. probably wasn't included in the watch at this time because of #3's poor structure, and it is not a TS. N.O. is somewhat inland. If the system was to become a stronger one, and promised to track a bit further east, I am sure the NHC would post a watch for them too.
Not to move on to the next. #4 has a lot more potential to be a formidable risk to people. Just remeber there is a forecast cone of error and that is what to watch.
On a final note, Tallahassee's Afternoon Discussion (LINK: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=TAEAFDTAE&version=1 ) mentioned that the very busy 1995 hurricane seson (with and active early term) did not produce it's fourth system until July 30. It mentions concern that we a hyper ahead of schedule. Remember that season produced 19 systems, only surpassed by 1933 (with 21) and we are in a pattern more conducive for landfalls than 1995. Do not want to get the cart ahead of the horse from here, but it is something to think about.

P.S. Exact quaote in case link shifts with the issuance of a newer discussion:

.SYNOPSIS...BOY, IT'S TURNING OUT TO BE A BUSY EARLY SEASON IN THE
TROPICS. HERE IT IS ONLY INDEPENDENCE DAY, AND WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
THIRD TD OF THE SEASON ABOUT TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND
A VERY HEALTHY LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOTH
CINDY AND DENNIS THIS WEEK. EVEN IN THE VERY BUSY 1995 SEASON, IT
TOOK UNTIL JULY 30TH FOR THE D STORM TO FORM. SSMI DATA AND RECENT
VISIBLE PIX INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TD 3 MAY HAVE REFORMED JUST
OFF THE NRN YUCATAN COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED BENEATH A A VORT CENTER OVER ERN MS AND NWRN AL. A
CONVERGENT BAND WELL N OF TD 3 SPARKED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA HAS WORKED STEADILY INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY, AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORT LOBE EXTENDING NWD FROM TD 3.


Hurricane Fredrick 1979
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:06 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

The Eastbank of N O is not under the watch. The westbank I beleive is. Jefferson Parrish which butts to Orleans Parrish is under it. If a Hurricane above a 3 was to hit they would blow the levee up and then the westbank would flood out. There goes my other house.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:15 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

thankfully it is not that strong

HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

as for t.d. 3... it seems to be doing its best isidore impersonation. remember isidore was that strong hurricane that had the gulf coast all worried the last week of september 2002, but beached itself on the yucatan and never rebuilt it's core. honestly think it's been a t.s. most of the afternoon/evening... recon will drop by in the next few hrs and confirm or sink this assumption. because of the relocation the steering mechanisms would tend to take the center further east.. but in the weaker state it's in the system will not recurve as easily. while the path is open further east now (ms/al), the core has to get reorganized for that steering mechanism to kick in. i don't know anymore... the yucatan crossing really knocked my ideas with this one off balance.
t.d. 4 has been officially christened. the nhc could have done it at five, but they played it down like they usually do. doggone thing looks like it's getting clear of the south american coast.. it'll spin up slowly for the first day or two.. but that intensity in the extended period nhc is advertising is definitely conservative. it has a bunch of islands to negotiate, and exactly how it does that will control the intensity and path to a degree. the nhc prog right now for track looks sound to me.
gonna be a long week coming up.
HF 0703z05july


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:10 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

The T# for TD#3 is 2.5 thats 40 mph. By 5 or 11am we will have TS Cindy

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:29 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

pressure in TD3/Cidy is down 3mb to 1006

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:57 AM
Tropical Storm Cindy in Gulf

TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005
0900Z TUE JUL 05 2005 (edited~danielw)

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 (edited~danielw)

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 TO 50 KTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1002 MB. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY...THE THIRD NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON.

Please see the full advisories on the Main Page. Or at the NHC link on the left side bar. Refer to your local NWS office for Tropical Storm/ Hurricane Local Statements, Watches and Warnings. They are also listed on the Main Page.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:10 AM
Tropical Depression 4 in Eastern Caribbean

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 (edited~danielw)

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 (edited~danielw)

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

Please see the full advisories on the Main Page. Or at the NHC link on the left side bar. Refer to your local NWS office for Tropical Storm/ Hurricane Local Statements, Watches and Warnings. They are also listed on the Main Page.


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:40 AM
Cindy and Four

Well Cindy still looks very lopsided on the IR imagery this morning. Given the dry air to its west, the relatively poor but improving convective pattern, and the fact it should be inland within 24 to 36 hours, i dont think it will strengthen that much. I reckon 50 mph at landfall would be a good guess, with landfall somewhere near Gulfport, MS.

As for TD Four, well the IR presentation is excellent for a TD. Great banding features and a central core of deep convection. I reckon this will be upgraded to Dennis at the next advisory. Given its presentation and the favourable environment it could easily become a Hurricane within about 60 hours. This one could first be a problem for Jamaica in a day or two.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:47 AM
Re: Cindy and Four

And all of Florida cringes with the current models.. looks oddly like charley's path.
GO..west!


LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:56 AM
Re: Cindy and Four

One saving grace is the high sitting over and to the east of Florida, most of the models have TD 4 aka future Dennis moving to the West of Florida. However, things are subject to change real fast.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 07:38 AM
Quick Links

Here is some Bouy info:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/West_Caribbean.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

Most of you have them


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 07:44 AM
New Orleans

Looking at the IR (and outside) tells me rain will start soon and last for a while.... but, you know what. We'll take Cindy... I mean everyone needs their share of storms. Just, the next one *has* to go someplace else...

Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:37 AM
Dennis the menace

seems to be a strong tropical storm. Wouldn't suprise me if it became a hurricane withing 24 hours, if not sooner. for an unnamed storm, I've never seen such a strong convection over a center, and it be consider a TD...
oh well, that's why I am a novice, and they are the experts...

Cat 3 or stronger?....probably. Sure seems like a lot of activity so early in the season, doesn't it?


firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:49 AM
Re: Dennis the menace

I do not like what I am seeing with "Dennis" so far....currently thinking (hoping) it will move further west before it turns north....we do not need anything around our area with all of the people still living in FEMA trailers....

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:50 AM
Re: Dennis the menace

We got our first band and some thunder. I woke up to pouring rain. I gotta decide if I want to move my car to the railroad tracks or not to beat the flooding that is very possible.

Be on the lookout for heavy rain from Terrebonne/Lafourche Parishes over to Escambia/Santa Rosa. Somebody's getting 10"+ out of this one. We'll probably see 4-7" here or just east of here, but my target for rain would be the MS Coast.

If you get the chance today, go to Yahoo/Weather/Videos and watch Bastardi. He's got a super interesting take on #4/Dennis and also is increasingly into the idea of a short-cut storm hitting the Carolinas later in the season.

Nya-a-a-a-a-a-a.

It's getting black outside to the south, guess another band is headed this way! Woohoo! /breakfast of champions

Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:07 AM
Re: Dennis the menace

Hey Steve,

I think you guys in LA are going to get Double Dipped!
TD#4 I mean Hurricane Dennis looks more like a Hurricane than Cindy looks like a TS via Sat pics:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

My thoughts are that Cindy is going to make things wet and Dennis is going to follow through and create allot of Water Damage.
I believe that it is moving too fast: W @ 17 to make the NW turn in time.


Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:12 AM
Joe Bastardi

thinks Dennis is a formidable threat. I would advise watching his video. He is thinking New Orleans has a good (bad) chance of getting whammed.

wow...so early and so much going on. He also thinks Cindy will be easily a 60 mph storm...lotta rain.

He remarked how ridiculous it is that Dennis is not a named storm yet. We all can see satellite and determine the obvious, can't we?....


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:23 AM
Re: Dennis the menace

Too much model agreement, which factor in the initial forward speed to consider the non turn idea too seriously.
The 'depression' is reassembling it self this morning and some convection is quickly building near the center...
The general movement is north of due west and the expected increase in intensity will allow it to indeed go more wnw in the next 24 hours...it will slide nicely up into the Jamaica area.
I can only depend on the models for this as far as tract and intensity...too much dynamic with the high ridge and the trough that will pickup Cindy...We'll need to look at that on Wed. night and Thursday a.m. to get a fix so to speak.
That's what I'm going to do.


FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:26 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

i totally agree with with what u just posted...i just got finished watching the video and although the west coast of florida isnt out of the running yet...im still ready...so bring it on if you have to... everyone be prepared and stay safe...dont know what i would do without this site...thanks a million

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:31 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Yall are certainly right about Dennis.... It looks very well formed.... What a week!

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:43 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

looks like we will have Dennis at 11am based on satellite appearance (I'll be surprised if we don't, and I'll be shocked if we don't before the end of the day)
the system is in the eastern Caribbean, and that said, there are still very evident and strong west winds to the south of the center over Venezuela (something not usually seen with something so far south in the E. Caribbean), and that can only mean that this will rapidly intensify once it moves away from South America

as for Cindy, expect 50-60 mph at landfall, which i expect to be this evening


Lysis
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:58 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

I would be much obliged if someone would be so kind as to provided the link for the Bastardi video.

EDIT: Never mind... I found it:

http://weather.yahoo.com/'


firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:59 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Rabbit...I think you are correct about the 11am. In checking the last views of Dennis it seems to be moving more wnw now...hopefully it will not be east of the NHC track map.....

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:17 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Check the last frames, you can see the eye forming on the north...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html


FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:20 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

ok i hate to ask this...but where is that at?...im looking and i would like to be able to recognize it...any suggestions?...thanks becky

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:24 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Yes that may be the LLC, but it is not a true eye...they strom is not symetrical with most immediate weather on the west, and the big piece on the east lagging behind... earlier today I thought that eastern piece may break off and be left behind but now I think it will get pulled in as the day goes on..convection continues to build around the more organized. llc.

Lysis
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:28 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Where is what, Flamommy?

EDIT: What the heck is the NHC waiting for?


FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:30 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

the eye that is starting to form?.....

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:31 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

If you're refering to Cindy, I think you're seeing clouds forming around the low pressure center.

An 'eye' does not happen in a tropical storm. Only hurricanes have 'eyes'.
The big boy South of Hispanola is the system that has me worried.


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:32 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Oh dear.

Ivan the Terrible and now Dennis the Menace.....

Here we go. I just want to sleep through this season. You guys wake me up when we are through. Hopefully, I will still have a roof over my head! Kidding.

I leave for five days and look at all I was missing. Starting to heat up out there.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:34 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

I see that Dennis the Menace is getting more menacing. Could everyone please reference the name or number of the storm they are referring to in the comments. I will be playing catch up with the posts as the day goes on and will have no clue as to what is being described if I am not able to click on the posts as they are made. Thanks in Advanced. I know everyone else also reads all the posts and gleans knowledge as well as social interaction.

FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:34 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

i was referring to this statement...and he didnt say whether it was cindy or "dennis"....sorry for the confusion...


Check the last frames, you can see the eye forming on the north...


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:36 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

No, Im refering to TD 4, aprox. 66W 14N

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:37 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Tropical storm warnings are about to get extended all the way to Panama City FL at the 10 am adv

Edit -- not quite. Warnings to Destin, a watch to Indian Pass, FL. Not so much for a large shift in track to the right, though it has been shifted, but for the expanse of winds on the right side of the track. --Clark


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:40 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

TD#4 is now Tropical Storm Dennis as of 10am

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:40 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Rabbit, strong west winds over Venezuela don't really mean a lot when it comes to development of a Caribbean storm...the primary factors for it developing after it moves away from the coast are the lack of proximity to tall mountains as well as the much warmer (and deeper) warm waters into the Central Caribbean. Waters near the coast, interestingly enough, are very shallow and not all that warm -- the immediate coastline, for that and the topographical reasons, is actually an area where tropical cyclones tend to come nowhere near their maximum potential intensity.

We've now got Dennis at 11a, 40mph/1006mb...Cindy is up to 50mph at 11a and does look a bit better organized -- but again lopsided, like Arlene. The NHC is playing it conservatively with Dennis, which is probably prudent given that no one is directly under its path for the time being. It looks rather impressive on satellite, but remember Earl from last year -- very similar presentation, but no closed circulation. There's one here, of course, and I imagine the wind speeds will probably ramp up at a good rate, but a lot of what you've been seeing is probably a mid-level representation that is just starting to work its way down to the surface.

More coming up around lunchtime...a lot to catch up on after a weekend away! Hope everyone's 4th went well...


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:43 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Doug, I agree with your statement that we'll have to wait to see what the overall affects from Cindy are on the steering currents to get a handle on soon to be Dennis' direction. This should be a formidable storm, as it seems to be getting its act together now. Cindy may cause a weakness in any ridging that's here, and that weakness will move east as the remnants of Cindy head to the NE. Its way early to call the ultimate path of "Dennis". Cheers!!

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:46 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

i meant inflow, i probably should have specified

where does it say we have Dennis?
(edit:) found it


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:48 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Quote:

where does it say we have Dennis?




11 AM update... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/051439.shtml

The discussion is not up yet though...


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:48 AM
Dennis,Hurricane??

Looking at the last loop,this thing looks like a hurricane,or very close to one.Also looks like it took a jog more to the north on the last frame.Time will tell,but I am stating to get ready for Dennis today.Where ever this thing goes it looks like it will be a monster.

Lysis
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:50 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi


Tropical Depression four has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dennis. The advisory points out that this the earliest “D” name in recorded history.


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:52 AM
Re: Dennis,Hurricane??

i doubt it is anywhere near hurricane intensity--still not organized enough

it will likely be one though before the end of tomorrow, and i am thinking it will get much higher than the 85 mph they are forecasting


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:54 AM
Re: Earl from last year

Clark, this is the second reference to Earl from last year, HF through it out yesterday. for thos with impaired memories such as my sel, what are the similarities to Earl as an analog for this storm?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:57 AM
model accuracy

Longtime lurker...may as well jump in.

The models seemed to change course with future Dennis this a.m....sure they will again as the days go by...although MM5 & I believe GFS still show Fl taking some sort of hit.

As far as the track being east of what NHC is calling for at the moment...just based on my obs from last year..TSFH...seems with the storms in the Gulf, landfall was more to the right & with Atlantic storms, landfall was more to the left.

With some of the model runs now that can be a big difference between taking a hit & just maybe having some rain.

Just hope people don't end up in denial & pay attention.


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:00 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Quote:

The discussion is not up yet though...




Yes it is: From Weather Underground:

Quote:

Banding features are becoming better defined and...based on a Dvorak
classification of t2.5 from TAFB...the cyclone is being named.
This is the earliest date ever to have four named tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic Basin. The storm will be in a low-shear and high
oceanic heat content environment for the next several days...so
further strengthening is likely. The official intensity forecast
may be conservative at the longer range...but there is little if
any skill in intensity change prediction at days 4-5.
Dennis is moving a little north of west near 16 kt as a result of a
deep easterly steering flow to the south of the subtropical high.
A general west-northwestward track with a little deceleration is
predicted. This is similar to the previous forecast and in good
agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Because of
uncertainty in longer-range track predictions...it is too early to
speculate on what portions of the U.S. Might be threatened.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of Hispaniola
at this time.
Forecaster Pasch




The 11am forecast track is taking Dennis furthur into the Gulf, lessening any threat to the Florida Peninsula...however, Florida's sparing might mean New Orleans' problem.

--Lou


trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:01 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

Quote:


Tropical Depression four has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dennis. The advisory points out that this the earliest “D” name in recorded history.





since its the earliest recorded D.. is there any season where all the named storms made an appearance.... cause its July 5 and at the rate we are going


LizL
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:02 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

UPDATED: A portion of Central Florida is placed in a forecast cone of possible strike locations for one of two storms gaining strength today, according to Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry.
Was posted today July 5th on A orlando tv stations website.


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:04 AM
Re: Dennis,Hurricane??

At this time models appear to project Dennis as a GOM event- but it is far too early in the running as the margin for error can be too great at this stage.

FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:05 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

what portion are you referring to liz?

Lysis
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:07 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

panhandle... (look at the tracking map)

LizL
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:09 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

local6.com showed that but not really any more details

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:11 AM
Re: Dennis,Hurricane??

I want to reiterate, nobody will get a handle on the probabilities until after this gets past Jamaica...it is enough to note the projection in the center of the cone is mid gulf, and that probabilities are up to as high as 14 for Marco and 11 for Ft. Myers already to put people in W Central Florida on enough alert to kee in touch.

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:13 AM
Re: Joe Bastardi

I have to agree with Lysis, sure looks like the panhandle or a bit to west of that area.......Possible CAT 2 coming up??????.......Weatherchef

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:18 AM
sats

nice vis this morning.... cindy

Dennis is going to be a major problem in 5-7 days, somewhere in the northern/east gulf it looks like, if things hold together....way to early to tell on exact location or area, but now is a good time from the fla. keys to New Orleans to go ahead if not already, get evac. plans and supplies and or kits ready..

so what will the bermuda high be like in 5-8 days? (man, sounds like last year!)


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:24 AM
Dennis

What impact will Cindy have on Dennis?Could Cindy push Dennis more to the east?All the conditions are there for a major hurricane.I would say everyone from the east coast of FL. to NO. should watch this very closely.No shear,very warm water.

Liz
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:28 AM
Re: sats

Question, if the high that is over and east of Florida moves east, will that have an impact on Dennis' movement? Will it move it further east?

Liz


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:31 AM
Re: Dennis

If the 'High' moves eastward (away from Florida) then the dreaded cone will surely move eastward ensuring that East Florida will be in a higher risk area.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:47 AM
Re: Dennis

you can't count east coast fla out, but its looking less likely. most models are in "general agreement" to about 5days. entering south GOM
which way


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:59 AM
Re: Dennis

Looks like the center is more to the north of the forescated track right now...
Check the Trop Fcst pts box on top right
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 11:59 AM
Re: Dennis

That is true but all Florida residents must keep their guard up on this.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:12 PM
Re: Dennis

Hurricane Guy,I saw that myself.We all know how tracks can change very quickly.There are a couple of things that could happen that would bring it to the tip of south FL.And put the east coast of Fl. on the "bad"side of the storm.We just have to keep watching it,and see what happens.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:13 PM
Re: Dennis

Maybe I got this wrong when watching the local newscast last night, but I thought that it was said that the High was moving east, which was allowing Cindy to move further north and east of the original forecast track. If that is correct, than will the high keep moving east or is there any evidence out there that it will build back in later in the week allowing Dennis to be pushed further west?
Of course, this entire post is all contingent on whether I understood what was said correctly.


FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:16 PM
Re: Dennis

im sorry if this is a little off topic but i was wondering what are the wind strengths to categorize it has hurricane status....thanks

Lysis
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:18 PM
Re: Dennis

74 mph is a minimal hurricane. This site has a wealth of information and provides links to various sites that can answer alot of the questions you must have. You should check them out:

Here is the general info provided at this site:

http://flhurricane.com/general.php

Here is an excellent faq at the NHC and a prepardness guide:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml
Also, if you have a question you can pm me.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:18 PM
Re: Dennis

Here is a really good site for hurricane basics and understanding misconceptions...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html

(My post was before Lysis' links appeared.... laugh... so, don't think I'm being overly redundant!)


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:20 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Well even if it were to come right up the state of FL seeing it still has hispanolia and cuba to go thru the chances of it being anything more then a CAT 1 is slim wouldn't you think?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:22 PM
Re: Dennis,Hurricane??

At this point you are right about it being to far ahead if you keep in mind the 1-2-3 rule

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:25 PM
Re: sats

Boy she really wants to close that west side off and wrap around.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:28 PM
Re: Dennis

An elementary link, but should help some folks figure out what drives direction http://meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/movncane/movncane.htm Just follow the instructions

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:28 PM
Re: Dennis

The latest discussion did call for the high to move further east away from Fl by the end of the week...would pull Dennis closer correct?

All a matter of timing I guess...position of the high & where he is at that time.

Can't help but think of Jeanne...reading this board till power went out & the talking heads were still insisting on that right hand turn as I'm getting pounded & feeling my foundation vibrate.

Bears watching to say the least.


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:30 PM
Re: Dennis

TPC track takes Cindy east of N.O Would that give it the time to make it to a 75 -80 mph cane ?

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:31 PM
Dennis's Location?

I just looked at the visible loops on the storm floater for Dennis...maybe someone can answer this question: is the LLC further north of the first TS symbol or is it right where it's supposed to be? It looks to me as though it's further north than where it's supposed to be.
Thanks!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:31 PM
Re: Dennis

I got a bad feeling about this Dennis character.. I think he's going to move east, just by a gut feeling.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:32 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Redram,That really is not true,Andrew is just one of many that hit an Island,and then get very strong very quickly.It may weaken a little but the Islands are just not big enough to have a huge impact.And the water is so warm between the Islands and U.S. mainland that it has time to get much stronger before it gets here.

teal61
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:33 PM
Re: Dennis

Quote:

Looks like the center is more to the north of the forescated track right now...
Check the Trop Fcst pts box on top right
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html




I would have to disagree with you there. If anything it's a little south of the forecast track. Dennis is still moving rapidly westward at this time. Of course there has been some question elsewhere about exactly where the center is.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:34 PM
Re: Dennis

That animation was kind of cool... too bad you can't place the Highs and Lows anywhere on the map.... Unfortunately, my placement took the storm right over my house, but....

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:36 PM
Cindy ship observation

I found a ship report at 27.5 north 89.8 west which, within the hour, reported sustained winds of about 58 miles per hour (50 knots). Is this likely to be accurate?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:38 PM
Re: Dennis

LOL, keep moving them around to get away from your house )). Conceptually it should be helpful for folks

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:39 PM
Re: Cindy ship observation

According to the Bouy center... the highest windspeed is 24.1 kts near the storm... Where did you find that reading?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=27.0N&lon1=90.4W&dist=250&time=3

Ok.. looking earlier, I see a couple ship reports with higher wind speeds (49ish knots), but I don't like those as they don't have constant data and graphs to see if its real or an outlier...


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:40 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Alright,I just got some what I think is big news for Dennis.The High off the east FL. coast IS moving to the east.This I really believe will move Dennis more to the east.Am I right in my thinking?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:42 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Where did you get this information for the high?

WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:43 PM
Re: Dennis

Uh, not to burst anyone's bubble on Dennis, but we here in New Orleans are staring down the gut of an intensifying tropical storm. Not sure if anyone else is paying attention or not, but Cindy has really gotten her act together and looks rather impressive (though small) on satellite. I think there is a slim chance that she makes it to hurricane strength. Surely looks like she might be up from 50 already.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:43 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

I just got that info about the high on ch7 in Ft Lauderdale.

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:44 PM
Re: Dennis

What are ya'lls thoughts on Cindy ? Sorry to change the channel



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/archive/javanh1.html

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...&duration=6


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:44 PM
Re: Dennis

Okay...then maybe I am not looking at what is the actual LLC...would that be right in between the "L" symbol and the " " symbol?
Sorry to ask so many questions...just want to make sure I'm looking at the correct place! Argh!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:45 PM
Cindy ship observation

from what I saw the ship at the time was located at 27.5 north, 89.8 west, slightly northeast of the center of the storm. Here is the link

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=27.0N&lon1=90.4W&dist=250&time=3.

The report was from 1500 hours, so its not at the absolute top


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:51 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Conceptually you are right- but at no time can it be certain that Dennis will behave conceptually. He may find he's in a friendlier environment pursuing a westward motion; but we may not know what he has in mind as other variables may affect his path. So stay tuned.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:51 PM
Cindy

There are still posts mixed in here in regards to Cindy...can only speak for myself but I'm sure noone meant any slight to the effects those in your area will feel.

She does appear to be getting her act together & you are correct more attention should be given...Bastardi alluded to this in his Counterpoint video this a.m....feels she'll be much stronger..maybe not hurricane strength...but severe weather & plenty of rain to say the least.


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:57 PM
Re: Cindy

Nice 80 frame shot of Cindy Good bookmark



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_THREE/webManager/basicJavaDisplay.html


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 12:58 PM
Cindy

Sorry by offending anyone of our friends who are looking at Cindy coming their way. Just looked at the visibles...looks lopsided to me but a LOT of rain and that could be a huge problem. If she can get her act together, she may just be able to reach a Cat1 storm. It looks like all the heavy weather is on the eastern side of the storm; hopefully that will keep New Orleans from getting the heaviest weather...although others will suffer.
I really do not like the way this season is shaping up.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:01 PM
Re: Cindy

It took a while for the NHC to update the forecast track from the 10am update, but I noticed it was shifted a little east... this is good news indeed.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:08 PM
Dennis

I think by tommorow night we will see the forcast track for Dennis shift to the east some.Is it July 5th or Sept. 5th????????

firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:12 PM
Re: Cindy

Very nice link...it sure shows Cindy is getting her act together...

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:13 PM
Re: Cindy

Looking at the WV loop, it appears that there is a ridge/trough that's beginning to break down and pulling Cindy further north. Although, it appears that from looking at the radar, N.O. is getting some rain..hopefully not too much rain.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Cindy continues to suffer from dry air entrainment on her west side with most of the heavy weather on her east side. A landfall at Louisiana's Mississippi River Delta sometime tomorrow morning as a strong tropical storm is probable but most of the bad weather will be felt in Alabama and the NW panhandle of Florida much like with Arlene.

As of 11:00 AM EDT we have T.S. Dennis and this is the earliest we have ever seen a "D" named tropical cyclone and right now we are on pace to see the busiest Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone season ever. He is on a WNW course at approximately 19 mph and should continue on the general course and speed for the next several days, as he moves around the southern and western periphery of the strong Bermuda high pressure ridge. Upstream wind shear is low and ocean water temperature warm so Dennis should become a hurricane within 48 hours and "possibly" a major hurricane within 72-96 hours.

Where will Dennis go? Only God knows right now for sure but looking at all forecast models only one hints at a weakness in the strong Bermuda high pressure ridge that would allow Dennis to strike South Florida from the SE and then recurve up the Eastern Seaboard. Right now the NHC TPC forecast track across western Cuba into the SE Gulf Of Mexico looks good. This track would only impact the southern Florida Keys depending on it's strength but would then endanger the Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi to Pensacola.

Bottom line for the Florida peninsula is that we look safe at the moment but a small shift to the right would endanger all of the South Florida region. Stay tuned.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm


Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:16 PM
Re: Dennis

Latest Model runs have it going more west, as of now, H did shift east but also drop some south.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:18 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

All I know about models showing ridges moving/breaking down is this: last year, the models didn't pick up on the high closing off the open door for Frances/Jeanne to skirt the coast of the East Coast until about 48 hours before it happened.
I saw the door slamming shut way before they did.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:20 PM
Re: Dennis

If most of the models stay the same in the next 3-4 days,I would be very surprised.I think we have to wait until Thursday to see about South Florida.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:32 PM
Re: sats

Speaking of getting kits and things ready, this morning I bought a power inverter at Lowe's for $29.99. You hook it up to your car battery, and it puts out 400 (peak 800) watts of AC power. It has two outlets, but I plan to use an extension cord connected to a power strip, etc. They had a larger model, 750 watts for $59.00. My power was off for a week with Frances, and it would have been nice to be able to power a box fan, some decent lights, normal size tv, possibly computer, etc. It is necessary to restart the car every few hours or so while using it near full capacity, to keep the battery charged. The way I look at it, that's better than keeping a generator running all the time. I'm sure I'll want to go out and sit in the a/c in the car every once in a while, anyway (did that a lot after Frances.) The unit has a built-in auto shutoff if the battery voltage drops too low, and it also alterts you when it is getting close to that level. The brand is Vector. Home Depot has the same thing sold under their Husky brand, though it is more expensive ($45) and they were out of stock here in Gvl when I called. Obviously it won't power your refrigerator and central a/c, but having lived a week without power, I think it will be more than a few steps up from relying on batteries. I do have a battery powered tv, battery powered 'lanterns', boom box/radio, candles, etc. - all of which are a lot better than no tv, no radio, no lights, etc. Power inverters can be mail ordered, of course, if you want one and can't find one locally. Lowes.com ships. To be on the safe side, your car should have a good/strong battery (not on the verge of wearing out) and a reliable alternator (shouldn't be a problem for most people.)

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:33 PM
Re: Cindy ship observation

I'm thinking that boat needs to recalibrate.... there's no way it's 60 kts.... I mean, maybe, but, it seems very unrealistic to me.

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:35 PM
Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Ship report at 1700 hours of 60 knot winds 40 miles NE of center. She could make cane status after all.

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:37 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

I guess we'll see at 1... but looking at the other nearby estimates, I can't believe it completely.... Granted, it's the closest, but still...

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:41 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Just peeking down to earlier wind speed estimates, there was another ship that was reporting 40Kt's when that ship was reporting 49.9Kt's 10 miles away. so... it's possible the ship is off some, but I'm willing to believe that there are wind speeds of 50Kt's in the storm, though, in a nasty rain band, it's possible that the sustained winds are around 60kt's...

But I agree, it's a dubiously high reading considering the other reports.

-Mark


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:48 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

I think CIndy has an outside shot at getting to Cat 1, or at least affected areas on the east side could get hurricane force gusts... I am in the middle of my storm shutter project with about 6 of 15 windows complete... boy this sucks... I really hate the thought of this thing getting Cat 1 status as that is my criteria for putting up plywood.... on the other 9.... decisions decisions.... as for Dennis, like all the other storms the models with change with each passing run... I think its a little premature right now to predict where it will go 5 days out... two days ago most felt CIndy was a TX/west LA event... how things do change with these systems... and we all know it... so batten down the hatches and enjoy the ride, cause it gonna kick butt this year... two of the three storms hit on the n gulf coast... gee, is this a trend or what, now we certainly don't want 3 for 4, unless you are playing baseball... I'll provide some updates from the beach in Biloxi if Cindy has anything to offer tomorrow... now I'm going to have to go open up that new bottle of crown my friend gave me for my birthday.. cheers to my good pal Steve in NO.... I know he's just lovin it today too

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:49 PM
Re: Dennis

2 PM out on Dennis. Now moving WNW at 20!

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:53 PM
Re: Dennis

Does faster motion equal slower development? Seems like it's spending more energy translating, rather than strengthening? I would also think passing over land faster would reduce the amount of weakening...

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:56 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

2pm out on Cindy (Getting stronger)

"A ship just northeast of the center reported winds near 70 mph...but quality control analysis indicates that these winds are likely a little too high. Nevertheless...Cindy appears to have strengthened a little more and maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 60 mph...with higher gusts. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane is nearing Cindy and should give more definitive intensity information. Some additional increase in strength is possible before landfall."


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:59 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

I was looking at the Visibles on Cindy...maybe it's me but it looks as though some of those bands are trying to wrap around what (I think) is the LLC. I'm gonna stick my neck out here and say it will be a Cat 1 at landfall.

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:59 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Ok, how did you get that so quickly? It's still not on the NHC page...

Now it is, but it wasn't when that last post was made!


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:59 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Cyndy seems to be slowing and sliding a little west per the storm floater visual loop. Radar doesn't show much movement either.

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:01 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Quote:

Ok, how did you get that so quickly? It's still not on the NHC page...

Now it is, but it wasn't when that last post was made!




http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/at200503.public.html

Over the last few years, they have been the quickest to post. Sometimes by as much as 10-15 minutes.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:07 PM
Re: sats

Just wanted to make sure you had this knowledge and info before hookin stuff up to generators and inverters:::::: (Generator) http://www.lowes.com/lowes/lkn?action=howTo&p=BuyGuide/SelectGenerator.html&rn=RightNavFiles/rightNavHowTo#term

(Inverter) http://www.q3wholesale.com/Selection-guide-Power-inverters.htm


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:10 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

A ship located at 27.1 and 90.2 just reported a pressure of 29.47 inches...looks lke Cindy continues to intensify. Those of us in SE LA may be in for a little more weather than we thought a few hours ago.

Katie
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:12 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

I think that Colleen would be pretty close to perfect with her guess on Cindy being a Cat I at landfall. Gulf is warm and looks like perfect conditions for her to get better organized. A lot can happen in the heating of the day...only time will tell.

Dennis, in my opinion, a little too close for comfort. Guess it is time to just make sure everything is ready just in case. I am afraid he will take his time to make sure he is good and strong before he makes landfall. Hate to say it but I would much rather him stay on a more northernly path rather than having Central Florida back in the "cone" again.

Lysis, wanna have a storm party this year? I will bring my video camera too!?!?!


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:15 PM
Dennis

Dennis has started to curve more north,that is a fact.What is means?,not sure.Any input on Cindy helping Dennis move more towards the east?

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:16 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Quote:

I think that Colleen would be pretty close to perfect with her guess on Cindy being a Cat I at landfall. Gulf is warm and looks like perfect conditions for her to get better organized. A lot can happen in the heating of the day...only time will tell.

Dennis, in my opinion, a little too close for comfort. Guess it is time to just make sure everything is ready just in case. I am afraid he will take his time to make sure he is good and strong before he makes landfall. Hate to say it but I would much rather him stay on a more northernly path rather than having Central Florida back in the "cone" again.

Lysis, wanna have a storm party this year? I will bring my video camera too!?!?!




Katie.. i have done some travelling through central florida (Sebring area) for the past couple of months and i can't believe that many people and businesses don't have their roofs back up yet. So DENNIS STAY AWAY from our brothers and sisters in Central Florida.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:20 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Visual and radar suggest that perhaps there is something of further reorg. going on with Cindy? Or perhaps I just haven't paid attention: but wasn't the center of this always to the left of the convection and some what exposed? That certainly seems to still be the case visually and even on radaras all the activity seems to be wraping around a low open on sw and west...BUT on radar in the area of the higher wind gusts to the east of that center and under the convection is another distinct rotation vortex and the rotation around that is indeed more pronounced which would explain some of the data we have received.
Anybody see that too?


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:22 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

I've posted my thoughts on both storms on the main page, at the bottom in the blog section, so check it out if you're interested.

The biggest thing I can say with regards to both storms is to be prepared, but do not panic. Knowing that these storms are out there now, Cindy thankfully weak (though trying to get better organized) and Dennis well away from a US (or even Caribbean) landfall, along with already having seen 2 other storms this season, is the biggest key in knowing to be prepared. Being able to get what you need now and following the storms, listening to the authorities (NHC, NWS, emer. mgmt.), and being ready to move out if need be are all keys to keeping panic from setting in. Do not focus in on those in the media who, unfortunately, try to harp on one or two long-range model runs or present a doom & gloom scenario for either of the two storms; do, however, stay tuned to those who are trying to present you with accurate information you need to know to make a decision (like Jason & many others out there).

Dennis does have the potential to be quite the menace (pardon the pun) while Cindy is already menacing to many along the northern Gulf coast. Myself, I have family who planned a vacation there for this week, and I've got to watch out for their safety. Do the same for yourself or those you know, and stay tuned to see what else these storms and this season may bring.

(Probably a new acronym to replace TSFH from last year!)

Interesting trivia: never in recorded history have we seen 6 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic before August. Five has happened on a few occasions, but never 6. We are on pace for 7, though I imagine things will slow down just a bit once we are through with Dennis. Still, we could set history in more than one way with this season...and not in a good way, either.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:23 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Where do you look to find the most up-to-the-minute sat images and radar? It seems that the GOES on the NOAA SSD site are delayed by 35-40 minutes, and the dopplar radars on the NOAA SRH site are delayed 10-15 minutes... Can we do better than that?

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:25 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

I am looking at Intellecast...they too are delayed.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:25 PM
Re: Dennis

Cindy, if it remains and helps to enhance the trough to its west a little bit, could weaken the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and allow Dennis to recurve a bit further to the north & east, placing Florida more in line for a direct hit, but that is still way too far out there to tell with any large degree of certainty. Better bet is that Cindy weakens and/or moves far enough to the north not to play such a role (or only a cursory one) with Dennis.

Re: question about Earl earlier -- Earl was a lopsided storm, likely with some enhancement from a mid-latitude trough, that reached hurricane status with winds of over 100mph. It made landfall in the Florida panhandle, bringing both wind and rain to the region, and is likely the best example of the peak intensity that such a lopsided storm may reach. Cindy has a similar appearance on satellite, though I am not going to go so far as to say a similar result may be seen with this storm. Truth be told, I believe that this current round of organization is all for Cindy, with a peak in intensity likely about 6-12hr before landfall. That doesn't mean, however, that it won't bring a lot of rain and some wind to the coastline.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:26 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Great Post Clark!!!

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:31 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Hi Terra...

I'm not having a lot of problem getting the radar data within about 5 minutes of the time of the image. Radar imagery is only developed about every 6-10 minutes, depending on the scanning technique employed by the radar (that's just extraneous info, though), and it takes another minute or two to process it and have it ready on the web. You may want to try to new enhanced radar imagery from the NWS at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ to see if that works better for you, though.

Satellite imagery is usually delayed a few minutes, with the coverage only being about every 30 minutes outside of North America and 3 hours outside of the Northern Hemisphere. US imagery -- including Cindy -- is generally on about 7-10 minute intervals from the NASA GHCC site (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/) and is usually only about 15 minutes or so behind on my end. Considering the time needed for data dissemination, I think that's about as good as you are going to get on those. The Colo. State rapid-scan site is currently inaccessible; you might have better luck trying later, though. Here's the address for that: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML. I'm not sure if it is over Cindy right now, however.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:39 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Thanks.... The NASA site does seem to update more frequently... It's just not as close up as the other... but, beggars can't be choosers... I can use both!

I also was not aware of the Ridge site for radar, but noticed it has the same time resolution as the SRH. What's the difference in the two, other than different colors? I did notice that the latest radar was 5 minutes earlier a few minutes ago, so I guess it depends on when it is taken.

Thanks again!

I may have answered my own question.... when I turned the "topo" and "warnings" off, it looked a lot like the SRH radar.... so, maybe the Ridge radar adds topography and warnings, as well as flexibility in what you want to see?


Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:51 PM
Dennis the menace seems to be.....

getting larger...I notice that the clouds are encompassing an every larger area of the Caribbean.....ominous....really showing excellent characteristics of a soon to be cat 5!

Ricreig
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:56 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Quote:

Well even if it were to come right up the state of FL seeing it still has hispanolia and cuba to go thru the chances of it being anything more then a CAT 1 is slim wouldn't you think?


I would remind you that Charlie, last year, did almost just that. It started as a Cat IV, started a third of the way up the state and yet, in the Orlando area, was a Cat II at most. Any hurricane starting as a Cat I in the keys area and going up the center will most likely not be above strong TS strength by the time it makes it to Central Florida. However, you should always be prepared for even a TS strength storm. Things like batteries, drinking water, blankets, generator, full car gas tank and such should *always* be up to date or made so well before the storm approaches. Gas stations will be swamped, even out of gas, batteries will be sold out, non-perishable food will be scarce and so on, IF you wait till the last minute. Your best bet is to prepare early and not worry yourself too much about this storm UNLESS you live on or near the coast. Then, your list gets longer (shutters, etc) and requires more effort and lead time. If you live in a low-lying area, you should consider flooding as a more dangerous threat than the winds themselves. Consider where you would go if you have to evacuate for some reason.

Bottom line: Prepare and don't worry.
Richard


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:02 PM
Question?

Clark..or anyone...on that RAMSIS website, when I looked at the WV loop, is that big dry air mass just to the east of the Jersey Coastline the Bermuda high?
Sorry I keep asking questions...I just have to know what I'm looking at to post something that makes sense.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:17 PM
Re: Dennis the menace seems to be.....

Looking at Dennis: it doesn't appear to be GREATLY organized but you can see that it's trying to get it's act together. If/when he slows down, he will have a chance to get better organized. Since the storm is not even near the US mainland yet, there is a lot of uncertainty of just exactly where he will go. UNfortunately, we know that once he enters the GOM he has to go SOMEWHERE. Where that is all depends on a lot of unknowns at this time.
I will tell you one thing I do know for certain: Dennis a going to be a gigantic storm and no matter where he ends up, there's going to be a lot of nasty weather on his way there and afterwards. It almost reminds me of Hurricane Georges ...that storm was large and about 100 miles off the coast of Florida, but let me tell you: that was one of the scariest storms I've been through.
As for Cindy...she has a lot of rain with her...I just hope she doesn't slow down and take her time getting inland...giving her time to strengthen...and then causing the devastating flooding as it moves it's way through the eastern half of the US.


Wingman51
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:18 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Just a brief reminder that even though "Charlie" was ONLY at Cat II going thru Central Fla - It did more damage then anyone possibly imagined. Many still with "blue roofs" and the tree canopy will never be the same. While I agree with the previous posts, It is not time to panic, however, a quick look at your prep kit would be in order and a replenishment of supplies can never occur too early.

Chuck


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:21 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Terra -- yeah, the new ridge site for radar data adds topographic maps, velocity data, and a means of zooming & panning on the loops. It also adds a good distance marker in the static (non-loop) mode. Other than that, though, it's the same radar data...just a new way to view it.

Colleen -- the dry air out there is the dry mid-level air behind a shortwave trough that is currently located north-northeast of Bermuda. Not really the Bermuda/subtropical ridge, which really shows up with the anticyclonic turning south of 30 N. It's kinda pinched compared to some times last year, but still of similar strength.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:25 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Cindy's up to 70 now...

TROPICAL STORM CINDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN CINDY ARE NEAR 70 MPH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:25 PM
Re: Dennis the menace seems to be.....

Colleene, I agree with you I think it still looks a little ragged.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:26 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Let's see what kind of damage TS Cindy does and than maybe we'll all rethink what a Cat II does inland. A Cat 1 can do a lot of damage. I know that here in Polk County, there are people who STILL have blue tarps on their roofs and not all of the debris from LAST year's season has been picked up. Can you imagine what would happen if we had Dennis al a Charlie picking up all that debris and having it fly around?? Besides the normal damage caused by any hurricane, we'd have to add in all that flying stuff.
Jeez. Maybe if we all turn to the south and blow all that hot air out of our lungs, we can get Dennis to keep on a WEST track. -----------> (wishful thinking)


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:27 PM
Re: sats

Thanks for the info. Inverters come in ratings as low as 75 watts, maybe even less. If 400 or 750 is not enough wattage, I have seen models available online in the 1000 to 1500 watt range for $100 to $150 or so. The one at Lowe's for $29.99 is a good deal. I seriously doubt you'll find a comparable model for less. Even Walmart is about $15 more. The one I have, the 400, includes a cigarette lighter adapter, as well as battery clips, for heavier electrical loads. The 750 does not include the cigarette lighter adapter, otherwise I probably would have sprung for that one, even though it's double the price. I'll try mine out later today, just to make sure it actually works.

For me, 400 watts should be enough. I will still have the battery powered devices, and I already have about $50+ worth of D and AA batteries (batteries were very hard to find after Frances hit, and I got them when I could.). Publix seemed to have the best (only) supply of batteries after the crisis, btw. Forget Walmart unless you show up at 4am when the truck is unloaded.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:30 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

I spent this past weekend in Polk County and couldnt believe all of the tarps on the roofs. The worst part is that many people are in the midst of fixing the roofs themselves. That makes for quite a bit of flying debris.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:35 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Thank you, Clark. You're always such a great help!

I'm gonna bet that TS Cindy will be Hurricane Cindy at either 5pm or 11pm. So I'll go sit and play with the kids until the 5:00pm comes out.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Also...there are so many fences still laying in yards; trees that still haven't been removed, damaged scoreboards at the various local baseball/football parks, etc. It'll make a HUGE mess....IF..and that's a big IF right now, it effects any of us here in Central Florida.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:37 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

URNT11 KWBC 051910
97779 19104 31289 91518 15400 08035 18112 /2540
RMK NOAA2 0503A CINDY OB 07 KWBC


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:39 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

I don't want Dennis to hit central florida, we certainly don't need it. Even more, it seems that when the first one comes, and bunch of other ones come. Don't need another 4 this season.

lawgator
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:47 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Dennis still a little ragged but impressive and very symmetrical outflow. If it slows down, could really blossom.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html


Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:51 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

i'm hearing that Dennis has a high potential of becoming a cat.3 storm and making the first hurricane to landfall in 2005. I am also hearing it will be a florida panhandle storm. What are everyones thoughts on this?

-Ryan.
_______________________

Arlene X
Bret X
Cindy X
Dennis X
Emily

jaheeezzaa 4 storms already!


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:54 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Trin - Yeah, you should see parts of Polk County too. People just assume because we are in the middle of the state that we don't get much but,...it still looks like a war zone in areas. I go down through Sebring a lot too, so I know what you are talking about. Not to mention, as you probably know in Miami, we don't need the rain.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:58 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

At least we've had a few days to dry out lately.

If Dennis stays well enough out in the Gulf, Polk county should be ok.
Not sure why all the blue tarps are still up. In some cases, I think people
are just not bothering to fix their roofs. Maybe they like blue. who knows.


Wingman51
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:58 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Katie,
Have you noticed an increased presence of county and city trucks today?? In Osceola there is a lot of drain cleaning going on and storm debris that hs been left alone since September is being picked up. Humm


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 03:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

With the last few frames on visible, it sure looks like Dennis is trying to fire up storms around the center.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:01 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Too early-way too early to state where it will hit. The models do seem to point to a GOM event; but that can change by Thursday.

AdvAutoBob
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:04 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Still a lot of blue roofs here in Lee County as well... I'm STILL waiting for my soffits and gutters to be replaced.. the earliest I can even get somebody to come out is in mid August, which will mark a year since Charley.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:06 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

Clark
I have a question if you do not mind answering. It appears that it takes almost 6 hours for the FSU computers to process the forecast model. Do you know the reason for this time lag. Or, more importantly, is it because FSU has not been given enough $$ and does not have state of the art computers to run the model....


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:07 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Wingman - yes, actually, I was driving through Eagle Lake yesterday and they have put sandbags around the drainage....strange huh? Maybe just being a head of the game for a rainy summer? Who knows.

As far as the blue roofs are concerned. I don't think it is a matter of liking the blue or even not bothering to do it,...it is just that it is almost impossible to find someone who can do it now. Like my dad down in Jensen Beach, he is trying to find contractors that can renovate his new condo now but they are booked out a few months doing hurricane repairs which are in my book, more important than a renovation.


Liz
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:08 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

Off topic -
I work in the Building Department of a local city. I have been hearing on the city radio all day - all public works people are cleaning all storm drains and lowering the levels on the City renention ponds

Liz


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:09 PM
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv.

In response to the City's working a head of the storms. I think it is a great idea. Last year so many of them weren't expecting all that we got and the drains couldn't handle it nor could the city. So, being on top of things will make the season run smoother this year. Better to be prepared than not!

Hats off to city officials.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Dennis's development is unique, characteristic of very strong storms. I remember tracking supertyphoon dianne in the west pacific last year, and it almost magically developed bands out of thin air in the shape of idealistic tropical cyclone. Must be a by-product of strong pressure drop over a symmetrical area; almost like Dennis. The dennis/cindy track(s) kind of remind me of a bonnie/charley situation to a lesser degree. The poleward axis's of the subtropical ridge will maintain the speed (16kts NWestward). The only inhibiting factor will once again be its proximity to land.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:20 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

You all did see the update, Cindy to 70 mph.....

U


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:38 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

5:00 out on Cindy.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 28.2 north... longitude 90.3 west or about 95 miles... 155 km... southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Cindy is moving toward the north near 14 mph ...22 km/hr...and a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track the center will be near the southeast Louisiana coast later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...with higher gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast prior to landfall.


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:41 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

You are right! And I say we will know better by thursday- If the storm passes south of Jamaica- I'd dare say I see a Charlie II ascending upon us- but I do see it impacting the Gulf coast north of where Charlie made landfall. I only wish it would remain a TS and give Texas badly needed rainfall.

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:41 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

5:00 Discussion on Cindy


the stepped-frequency radiometer instrument on board a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft reported a few spot surface wind estimates around 64 kt. However...the crew of the aircraft indicated that these wind speeds were a little too high. The satellite and radar-observed structure...central pressure...and flight level winds...are most consistent with a strong tropical storm. Current intensity is set at 60 kt. Little change in strength is anticipated for the next 12 hours as the center crosses into the marshy Delta Region of southeastern Louisiana.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:47 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

5:00 on Dennis


At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Dennis was located near latitude 14.2 north... longitude 68.3 west or about 325 miles... 525 km... south-southwest of San Juan Puerto Rico and about 405 miles... 650 km...southeast of Port au Prince Haiti.

Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph ...32 km/hr ...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:57 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

We have the Supercomputer, but it is for research work. Running any computer model takes a lot of computing time and effort, and I have work that has to get done as well (the MM5 runs partially on my machine) beyond the two model runs. We run it on 8 processors with plenty of memory, but it still takes quite a bit of time to get everything done. It could be shorter if we had more computing power, which we might get, but for now -- that's why. It comes out so late -- like the 12z run is finishing up now -- because we wait for the GFS initial conditions to come out, which usually is at or after 12z, to start up the model.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 04:59 PM
Heads-up

Heads-up for everyone -- latest recon has the pressure in Cindy down 3mb from the advisory pressure, now currently at 997mb. The advisory package came out pretty early -- 4:30p -- and the recon report came 10 minutes later.

Recon should be getting us all a spot report on Dennis before too long.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Keith234 -- the pressure drop and convective organization are somewhat interrelated. The mechanism for the organization of bands within a cyclone remains somewhat unknown & up for debate -- new theories come around every so often, each of which improves on the previous one -- but they can help provide at least part of the heating in the atmosphere necessary to result in a pressure drop at the surface; with symmetric convection, you can see a more symmetric pressure field/pressure drop/wind field. That's usually only with very weak storms near formation, however; inner core processes drive it beyond there.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:07 PM
Re: Heads-up

There is a (IMHO) very good chance that we could see the 1st Hurricane of the season by 8pmEDT tonight. Still can't get the 5pm discussion on Dennis, but I am still working on it.

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:11 PM
Re: Heads-up

Colleen

Here's a link to the Dennis discussion

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/at200504.disc.html


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:11 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

Would it be possible to spread the work out for the modeling like SETI and folding@home where people run screensavers that crunch numbers in their processors downtime? I would imagine that quite a few whether nerds such as myself would be interested in that. I have 7 GHz worth of processor sitting unused while the wife and I are at work.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:16 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

Not in this instance, but it's something to think about for a community run of a model. Only problem is that doing something like that requires dividing specific tasks that are independent of each other for distribution between the machines (for completion at irregular times/intervals), where modeling requires everything to occur concurrently and everything is tied together. It could be done, but all machines would have to be accessible all the time over the Internet...not always possible.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:17 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

By the models right now, It appears that Florida is in the clear. Is there any chance that the ridge can break down enough for it to hit florida? it would take a lot.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:19 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

The point is that in general a lot of knowageable people believe that the FSU model performs very well... and it may be time to make a phone call or two to the right people to get FSU the money if a super comp would do the job better and faster. Time is money in business and 6 hours as opposed to 1 on the right hardware could give everyone better information.... if political situation is right with this storm, I will make a couple of calls and see what can be done... thank you for the information.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:19 PM
Re: Heads-up

Thanks, Fletch...they are talking about a ridge breaking down causing it to take a more NW track and slowing it down in the next few days. They haven't really shifted the track all that much either way.
Dennis is looking much more impressive than he was earlier.


Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:20 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

How fast we forget in Florida, What does NHC say, follow the CONE, as of now all of Florida is still in the cone no you not safe until it passes you by.

Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:22 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Haven't posted in a while on here, but it seems the main two mets on the ABC and Fox affiliate are really taking both Cindy and Dennis very seriously here in Atlanta, especially Cindy. Over the past few days there have been some areas around Atlanta that would get 3-4" of rain from one thunderstorm and there is a real fear of some signicficant flooding in carious parts of the area. I know that Atlanta is pretty far inland, but we here are watching and waiting with baited breath for Cindy and Dennis.

Also, FYI, Delta has started to cancel flights to NoLa, Panama City Beach and other areas in the forecast path of Cindy. Not sure of the other airlines yet.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:23 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

A word of caution: the forecast track is really only good for the 1-3 day period. Florida's not in the clear until it clears where we are located. Just like it's too premature to say it WILL hit Florida, it's also too premature to say it WILL NOT hit Florida.
Rule of thumb: until it passes your lat/long, you're never in the clear.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:25 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

True, just like Charley last year.. they were sure it was going to hit Tampa, but 2 hours before landfall, it hit 100+ miles south. I'll get my hurricane stuff all sorted, and start getting ready for it.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:44 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

im going to go out on a limb here and say landfall of Cindy at 75 mph. It is reminding me alot of Arlene last month, with one key difference--less shear overall and less dry air

Also, the convection is still firing pretty well and it has been intensifying all day

Dennis i expect will slowly intensify, and reach hurricane status sometime on Thursday, then begin to rapidly intensify prior to landfall in Cuba
the rotation is currently very well defined and it appears to be consolidating the convection

another reason that i think Cindy will reach hurricane intensity before landfall-- possible northern eyewall forming


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:47 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

And Colleen, sometimes even that is not true.. case in point... Elena in 85, approached the MS coast, Hurricane warnings posted, turn the hard turn right, warnings discontinued, warning up in FL... stopped, stayed off the Fl coast a while, MS forgot about her.... then she turned around and came back for a second attempt, hurricane warnings reposted...... so you never know with these things.... sometimes science does a good job in forecasting and other times not so great...

wondering why we at least don't have a hurricane watch with a 70 mph storm barreling down our necks this evening...


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:48 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

Quote:

A word of caution: the forecast track is really only good for the 1-3 day period. Florida's not in the clear until it clears where we are located. Just like it's too premature to say it WILL hit Florida, it's also too premature to say it WILL NOT hit Florida.
Rule of thumb: until it passes your lat/long, you're never in the clear.




Great advice Colleen. Just don't forget Ivan from '04...he came back and got Texas.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:50 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

Florida is most decidedly NOT in the clear...in fact, the danger is higher now than it was before...storm may slow and meander in SE Gulf, trough supposed to develop.....we have heard this tune before. The entire state is in the erro cone...DON'T focus on the track, the 'skinny black line'.

MM


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:53 PM
Could Cindy go Cat 1?

Based on the imagery available, both satellite and radar, it seems as if Cindy might just get to 75mph prior to landfall. Given the drop in pressure from Recon, down to 997, plus data from their equipment which suggested winds near 75 mph at the surface, i think she has a shot. A little surprised no Hurricane Watches or Warnings have been issued yet though, i must admit. We may see an update within the next couple of hours that takes her to Cat 1, and includes Hurricane Warnings. My thoughts any way

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 05:53 PM
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model

I agree and after reading the 5pm dicussion it is when the weakness will effect Dennis. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052057.shtml?

Ricreig
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 06:22 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Quote:

Just a brief reminder that even though "Charlie" was ONLY at Cat II going thru Central Fla - It did more damage then anyone possibly imagined. Many still with "blue roofs" and the tree canopy will never be the same. While I agree with the previous posts, It is not time to panic, however, a quick look at your prep kit would be in order and a replenishment of supplies can never occur too early.

Chuck


You are correct however my point was that IF any storm transverses the length of the state from south to north, it will not be as potent as when it first makes landfall. The gentleman was asking a question that led me to believe he was afraid that a change of course would bring our 'D' storm through the state and would it still be a hurricane. Additionally, I reiterated the necessity of preparation and the lack of need to worry about whatever path this storm ends up taking. We can't change whatever path is in the future for this or any other storm. What we can do is be prepaared for whatever happens and in any case, WORRY is not a solution, PREPARATION is *part* pf the solution. A tripical storm often causes as much or more damage than a full blown hurricane, not from wind, but from flooding and trees down on power lines and through roofs and such and such.
No, you are right that Charlie was one of the more expensive storms in history but much of that damage was not from the Cat II winds but from the TS winds around it, the rain and the tornado activity. More than a few roofs were damaged, but often not from Cat II winds, just TS winds blowing down trees onto the buildings and power lines. Only in a relatively small area near the center track line was the wind actually Cat 1 or II. I think we both agree that preparaation is the key with any storm.
Richard


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 06:32 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Things are picking up (literally, I'm sure) for the bouy in Southwest Pass, LA. It's fun to watch the pressure and windspeed change as the storm passes....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BURL1


Lysis
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 06:36 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

... well also due to the fact that it was a category four at landfall in an urbanized area, and our coastal cities boast of 10 million dollar houses. And it is "charley".

Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 06:48 PM
cdo for Dennis

The Central Dense Overcast is really taking off....wouldn't suprise me if an eye forms tonight...and it's a cat 2 storm within 36 hours...
all the makings of a widow maker

Cindy is even strengthening more...and should hit the Mississippi area tonight around 2:00 am...as a cat 1 cane...weak, however....

had Cindy stalled...we could've had a two or so...

interesting week ahead preparing for Dennis. All the models are strangely in agreement....

if it blossoms quickly, it will create it's own weather....and nothing much will affect it. I was watching the size of the storm today...and it kept getting larger. Now Dennis is tightening up...and should be a cane tonight....


Kevin
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 06:55 PM
Re: cdo for Dennis

Yes Rick-Dennis is coming together pretty nicely this evening. Earlier this afternoon the organization seemed to wane slightly, but now strong convection is getting pumped out near the center.

Depending on what happens overnight, this could possibly become a hurricane a good time before reaching Jamaica. I think that "Hurricane Dennis" by this evening is just a tad too agressive. But the last few visible images of the day reveal that the storm is definitely on the right track (or not, depending on where you live).


Ricreig
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 06:57 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

Quote:

... well also due to the fact that it was a category four at landfall in an urbanized area, and our coastal cities boast of 10 million dollar houses. And it is "charley".


I got to know "Charley" so well, up close and personal, that I feel at home with his nickname

Yes, as I alluded, anyone near the coast at the point of landfal *will* suffer from a much greater level of wind and related damage but even more dangerous than the wind in many cases is the storm surge. Both can cause much damage. With that said, remember the original poster was worried about a storm negotiating the length of the state and the reference to CharlIE was meant to show how fast a storm loses wind speed. The wind speed damage is way down after only a relatively few miles (say 20-40 or so) and the damage changes from utter destruciton of a major storm to the more general (albeit still very expensive and life threatening) trees down, roofs penetrated by falling trees, power outages, flooding and such. None are any fun but the house isnot usally eraseded from the face of the earth like near the impact location. The exception is the tornadic activity that often follows the storm many hundreds of miles inland...those can wipe a structure completely away. Most of the damage remains trees down (and resultant damage to structures) and flood. Again, worry doesn't solve anything, planning does. Preparation lessens risk and helps survival after the storm. Worry does neither. I think Dennis will miss the state for the most part, with the exception of the panhandle, but only a small shift of the course to the right of the model projections would mean much of the state could feel some effects and that justifies getting prepared. As busy as this season appears to be, any unused supplies will likely be used in the near future. I suggest getting them now while they still are available rather than waiting until too late. Take care...
Richard


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 06:57 PM
Hurricane Warnings

Yeah, Frank, I was wondering the same thing. A 3mb drop from 1000 to 997 is kind of scary..how much more will it drop before it makes landfall? You guys may have them up at the next advisory. I'd actually be surprised if they didn't. Or would I be?

Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 06:59 PM
Re: cdo for Dennis

You're probably right Dennis...but I get nervous with these things...gotta go off and get the boat a little more "roped" tonight..in case we get an eastern shift with Cindy...these things have a way of kicking right as they get near land...a difference in pressure from land to water....all that scientific stuff....I just watch em.....and get a gut feel...

too much science makes my head hurt...

see ya'll in the AM...


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 07:14 PM
Re: cdo for Dennis

Dennis' CDO feature looks mighty impressive tonight, but it's going to be at least another 6+hr before we get a response in the wind field & pressure readings. Recon out there found a poorly defined eyewall, but a sea level pressure of only 1005mb. Needless to say, it has a much better satellite appearance than its current intensity would suggest (especially over the past few hours), but I imagine everything hasn't worked its way to the surface quite yet. Give it time, as it'll likely get there. Slowing down would help it some.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 07:15 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf

I AM IN SE GEORGIA AND WHEN CHARLIE MAKE LANDFALL WE DEFINATELY FELT THE EFFECTS. THE STORM PASSED AT LEAST 300 MILES TO THE EAST OF US AND IT WAS A VERY ROUGH NIGHT. TORNADO WARNINGS WERE GOING OUT EVERY 30 MINUTES. TREES WERE DOWN, STREETS WERE FULL OF WATER AND IT LITERALLY BLEW THE BOARDS OUT FROM UNDER MY 68FT. LONG PORCH. AS I SAID, WE WERE WELL AWAY FROM THE EYE AND RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. I JUST CANT IMAGINE TAKING A DIRECT HIT FROM A HURRICANE. WE ARE JUST BELOW SAVANNAH AND FORTUNATELY WE ARE IN THAT LITTLE NOOK THAT SEEMS TO BE A VERY LUCKY SPOT ON THE COAST OF GA. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND SEASON SINCE I FOUND THIS SITE AND IT HAS BEEN VERY INFORMATIVE. THANKS TO ALL YOU FELLOW WEATHER GURUS, I HAVE REALLY LEARNED ALOT!!

WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 07:17 PM
Cindy New Orleans Update

6:15PM Update (New Orleans, LA)

Things aren't bad right now as we are between squalls and getting a nice break right now. Down at the coast (Grand Isle) they are reporting sustained winds of 40 mph already with gusts to 50. I'll try to keep everyone updated.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 07:38 PM
Re: Cindy New Orleans Update

Thanks, Steve...please stay safe and know that we are thinking of you and hoping that things don't get too bad.

Lysis
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 07:42 PM
Re: Cindy New Orleans Update

you are absolutely right, Ricreig, however realize that people have no idea what these things are like at their full intensity. A category 1 or 2 pales in comparison to the damage of a category 3, 4, or 5 (damage in correlation with the wind increases exponentially). If anyone who hasn’t done so already, and wants to see what a major hurricane is like, please feel free to download my film of hurricane Charley.

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:06 PM
Re: Cindy New Orleans Update

Cindy down to 992 mb yikes

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:08 PM
Cindy and Dennis strengthening

Per the latest advisory, both storms are dropping in pressure...Cindy at 992 and Dennis at 1001. I would not be surprised if Cindy becomes a minimal hurricane before landfall...as for Dennis, i hope it doesnt hurt anyone....

Ricreig
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:16 PM
Re: Cindy New Orleans Update

Quote:

If anyone who hasn’t done so already, and wants to see what a major hurricane is like, please feel free to download my film of hurricane Charley


Which, by the way, was excellent. No, I don't minimize the effects of a major storm at all. My experience includes Camille in the NE Eyewall and I was without electricity for SIX months on a military base even. No, I don't downplay a major storm at all. What I am trying to get across is that unless you are at ground zero on the ocean when such a storm comes ashore, the intensity of the storm winds deminish rapidly and the damage from the storm rapidly changes from major destruction due to wind and storm surge to damage by downed trees and flooding. In either case, worrying about the storm does not help bu preparation does. I do NOT want to go through another hurricane, even through a tropical storm. Anyone having gone through a major storm or felt the effects of flooding and tornados spawned by a tripical storm will usually not want a repeat performance. Evacuating 4 times last year from my trailer was no fun. Rebuilding a demoished home is no fun, suffering the loss of friends or family due to a storm is no fun, but we can't live in fear and worry. We need to become informed, learn from others past experiences and plan and prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. Those of you living where our four major storms came ashore last season, or the Andrews, Hugo, Camille and a host of others, all know what a major storm can do, but we don't worry about it, or shoudn't. Instead, we learn and prepare. That is my message. Tonight, a Tropica Storm, is hitting our neighbors in the Louisiana area. I hope they were prepared and I wish them safe and without injury or loss as this storm passes through. I don't diminish the effects of *any* storm, just know that preparation minimizes the losses. I also pray that you never have to make another film like the one you made last year with Charley.

Richard


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:36 PM
Dennis

I think Dennis is going to be big trouble....could be another Ivan.

FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:38 PM
Re: Dennis

well i just watched a video from our local news channel 10 tampa bay...and he is saying that it is going to where cindy is right now.....here is the link to the video


http://tampabay10.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=15664

any thoughts on this???


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:38 PM
Re: Dennis

or Charley

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:43 PM
Re: Dennis

Still way too early to tell where Dennis is going, unfortunately. As we learned last year, the cone of error is there for a reason. If you believe (outright) some of the progs on some of these storms, Jeanne would've gone out to sea and Ivan would've turned right well before it did.

We'll know more once Cindy has made landfall. Until then, any intensity or track forecast beyond the error cone is pure speculation.


FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:45 PM
Re: Dennis

well thank you very for that information Clark...unfortunately due to this forecast i believe that there are going to be alot of people who are gonna be like its not gonna hit us , its not gonna hit us...and well they are gonna be scrambling to get to safety....im not that way...i wanna know whats goin on...and keep a look out...:) well ty again...

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:50 PM
Re: Dennis

Wow, that is some real wishcasting. I agree with you that IF Dennis approachs our area, people are going to be caught off guard. I haven't seen any other TV station say that..they all say we need to pay close attention because YOU DON'T FOCUS ON THE BLACK LINE!
Not mad at you...just people saying things like that really aggravate me. Could you guess?


FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:53 PM
Re: Dennis

oh yea colleen i can completely agree with you...there were so many people i know personally that were like im gonna wait it out and after that last hurricane we had Jeanne i believe...he siad hell never ride one out again...but i think its better to be in the mind frame that it is going to hit us instead of saying oh its gonna pass us by... no worries i know ur not mad

HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:54 PM
ts/hur cindy, dennis

i got most of the cindy details fairly close. my hit point a couple days ago was around vermillion bay.. looks like it'll be grand isle instead. what is that, like.. 75 miles? beat the hurricane center at least. the pressure keeps dropping in spurts, so i might get the hurricane call right in the end. it'd be a double victory, cause my first hurricane guess date this summer was july 6th. whether it gets operationally upgraded or not, cindy will probably be set as a hurricane in post analysis, 'cause it's about as close as they come. lotsa rain on the way along the track and for points east. there's been a lot of rain on the coastal plain and piedmont areas from the carolinas south over recent weeks, but i don't think there will be more than widespread minor to moderate flooding, with the isolated variety severe weather as cindy moves inland and weakens.
i'm already very frightened by dennis. not because it's going to be a major hurricane and likely to hit the central gulf coast, but because i've already heard it called dennis the menace, and know we have a whole week to look forward to of every news outlet in existance calling it that to forced laughter. i think the hurricane center has done well with it since classification (late late typical late), as the intensity is well below what i'd have guessed from satelite. remind self that large envelope cyclones spin up slowly, have broad inner cores.. and our boy dennis moving quickly at that. it should spin up at a charley-esque rate, notwithstanding hitting jamaica or something it ought to be getting to major hurricane status closer to cuba. once it knocks poor fidel on his can, it's nw up to the central gulf coast. the 'cone' everybody talks about will end up being cedar key to houston.. i reckon. won't get to the coast until the 10th to 13th, but most likely area is the ms/al area where the official has it pointed, because all manner of forecast models like the idea. dennis hasn't done anything aside from exactly what was expected in it's short life.. until it starts defying those models we won't have much idea what else is at work. dennis will probably hit the u.s. as a hurricane. calling a major hurricane hit from this far out i'm squeamish about, because strong hurricanes find lots of unique ways to weaken as they approach land.. not always but often enough to merit attention. there's also the nagging thought in mind of allen and gilbert.. biguns that were also running under large ridges, that couldn't seem to find cause to recurve. climatology smacks a lot of july caribbean hurricanes into belize, the yucatan.. etc. if dennis starts sidestepping left that'll become a forecast contingency.
right now my strongest ideas are mainstream, though. hurricane, likely major at some point, possibly such at u.s. landfall. most likely area to get hit.. northern/central gulf coast. timeframe of u.s. impact centered around july 11th/12th. interesting of note is the gfs tendency to move the storm wnw after landfall and stall it over the plains, cut off from a poleward escape. that would be a horrific flood scenario... way out beyond reasonable prediction, but not something i'm very excited to notice.
better shut up before i write a book. busy times in july are at hand.
HF 0153z06july


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:55 PM
Re: Dennis

I understand completely. It's just that we really don't know where it is going right now, and while the projected path is the NHC's best guess as of right now, any deviation now or down the road is going to result in a deviation in the landfall point. We'll have a better idea of where it is headed 3 days before landfall -- before hurricane advisories go up -- and that is when actions should be taken to start to get out, think about evacuating, and so on. Now is the time, though, to review those plans -- as it is for any hurricane season and with any storm -- and to be thinking about getting some supplies you may have forgotten earlier in the year to top off the hurricane supply collection...before the rush comes.

With weather forecasts and, for many years, just a projected path, we've grown used to the weather as a deterministic projection. We much prefer hearing that the high will be in the low 90s instead of hearing that it has a 50% chance of being in the low 90s, a 30% chance of being in the mid-upper 90s, and a 20% chance of being in the upper 80s. Slowly the change is being made to more of the latter, and that's inherently what hurricane track forecasting is (and should be): probabilities of where the storm is going to go (and the related probabilities of the storm reaching a particular intensity). It tells you more than an actual point or number, though doesn't give the comfort of having an actual number. The media and many others, though, need actual numbers, so they'll never go away...it's just a matter of effectively blending the two and knowing what to do with them, whether you are in the field or, like many here, just interested in hurricanes.

These things are amazing to watch, even awe-striking sometimes. Unfortunately, it is in that itself where the reasoning why we can't pin everything down lies; we just can't predict nature as well as we might want to be able to do.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 08:55 PM
Re: Dennis

Is it me or does Dennis appear to be trying reform his LLC? Also looks like it's slowed down a bit. I don't like that. BTW...I got this from the IR Floater loop.
Probably wrong...but that's what my eyes are seeing.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:00 PM
Re: Dennis

Might've slowed a touch, but not anything drastically. The convection firing near the center gives the impression of the LLC maybe reforming, but I think it's just an artifact of the new convection and how it is moving around the center instead of any substantial reforming of the center. Any slowing of the circulation's forward speed would be bad news...this puppy has all of the potential in the world if that were to happen. As-is, I don't see any reason why to disagree with HF's intensity prognostication right now.

dem05
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:02 PM
Re: Dennis

Quote:

well i just watched a video from our local news channel 10 tampa bay...and he is saying that it is going to where cindy is right now.....here is the link to the video


http://tampabay10.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=15664

any thoughts on this???




I can't tell you how unfortunate I feel to see a TV meteorologist do this. This is the exact kind of presentation that misleads people. Show the cone of error, then basically discredit it. This is where the choice is made to decide if you will be the realistic forecaster that emphasizes the uncertainty, or roll the Vegas Dice and luck out to be the most accurate forecaster in town. This is a grat way to mislead the public and boost complacancy.
Okay, I'm preeching, sorry. You guys understand the forecast uncertainties this far out and the changes that occur in the models. Just thinking of the others that trust the statements of guys like this, but don't know enough about the posibilities. Frankly, a shot is being called way too early and subject to change and I think it is more harmful than helpful.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:16 PM
Re: Dennis

With pressure at 992 and reported wind gusts at 150ft of 99 mph from an oil rig, I've decide to board up the house.... not going to take any chances with broken windows... I'm pretty sure someone is going to feel Cat 1 conditions, so if its happens to be me, then I'm prepared, Cindy is a small compact storm so unless you are near the center I don't think the wind should be any big deal, I expect the tide to be at least 5 foot above normal tomorrow, so that shouldn't cause to many problems.... you drive along the MS coast tonight and its business as usual.... you'd never think a strong TS or even weak Cat 1 is about to impact the area.... amazing how complacent everyone is for these weak systems along the MS coast... very few people have prepared for this storm....
but I'm prepared as I can be, sipping on a little crown awaiting an early morning visit from Ms Cindy....


Storm Cooper
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:22 PM
Re: Dennis

Have one for me as I possibly await "dennis" Better safe than sorry as you can just take the boards down. Best wishes & Good night.

berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:23 PM
Where Dennis is Going?

There is no forecaster who can accurately predict where Dennis is going beyond 72 hours. Remember Cindy's original forecast at 1st becoming a depression. She had a date with TX-LA coast. There are variables in the global models that cannot be predicted in the here and now; the main variable during this forecast period is the upper ridge over the SE USA and it's strength as Dennis approaches Cuba. If you were to believe the GFS yesterday, out one week, Dennis looks to have a date with TX-LA; but if there is any weakening of the upper ridge, then Dennis will turn more north and east sooner, and right now, we don't know. Tropical systems being warm core wreak havoc on the upper air and induce dynamics that can't be foreseen too far in advance. I don't see anything to impede Dennis becoming a hurricane with the exception of how Dennis interacts with the land masses in it's circulation envelope, and it remains to be seen whether it will cross Cuba or not. With every model run, things change. The Tampa meteorologist or weather caster or whatever he is, is premature at best at this time.

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:24 PM
Re: Dennis

thats what i was saying. i dont think these local media should show there paths early like that. channel 9 news in orlando shows dennis as a 1 and is really misleading people.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:26 PM
Re: Dennis

Thanks Coop.... this next one's for you.... drink that is... oh, and maybe Dennis too.... I certainly don't want it... I've had my fill of storms for the year....

Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:28 PM
Re: Dennis

Frank,
I recall you saying about 2 years ago that you would ride out a Cat 1 without boarding up! LOL I think it is a good thing that you are adding a couple extra boards tonight. You never know. Good luck and hopefully all of you will get a day off work tomorrow!


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:30 PM
Re: Dennis

Hey Frank, good luck there. I too am concerned that this one may take some of the area by Surprise. You still need to prepare for a tropical storm, especially a strong one, just perhaps not as elaborate as a hurricane. There is no harm in erring on the side of caution on this one.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:30 PM
Report on Cindy from N.O.

Hello,

I am posting from Uptown New Orleans and thought I would give a report on our conditions. In the last hour winds have picked up, reported at 26 sustained ENE with gusts to 40....things have dropped off this last hour or so...gradually increasing rain and wind after a steady drizzle and light breeze for most of the day. I just read Bastardi's latest comment and he thinks this is already a hurricane....rigs are reporting hurricane conditions in the gulf. This will pass us just to the east and then hit MIss-Ala Coast quite possibly as a Cat 1.

Will report later if I can.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:36 PM
Re: Dennis

Yeah, I remember that Justin... but boy, we have not had any strong southerly winds in a long time, and my all the little oak limbs will just pound the stew out of my front windows if I get any winds above 50 mph out of the south.. much easier to put up plywood than replace 3X6 windows, and I have 6 of em.... but thanks for reminding me of my foolishness..... hehe..

Thanks Mike, you never know with these things and after what happened to Punta Gorta last year I'll never take any more chances.... I'm as ready as I can be... but know this, nothing (plywood) is coming down until we know where Dennis ends up... that also factored in the decision


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:40 PM
Re: Dennis

Good luck, Frank and all of you that are in the path of Cindy. I have a feeling that Cindy may be upgraded to a Cat 1 at 11; although with it being so close to landfall they may not do it. I personally think that's a little misleading to people in your area given what you've said about people being out driving around as if nothing is sitting out there in the Gulf.
Remember Irene? Miami was getting pounded....no warnings for them and a lot of people got some nasty weather they weren't expecting.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:45 PM
Chat Room

LOL..I just went into the chat room to see if anyone was in there talking about the storms; got kicked out for "behavior". How can I get myself in trouble when I'm the only one in there?

javlin
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:46 PM
Re: Dennis

I pulled everything in Frank no boarding for this one.You are right though people are complacent and not worried at all it seems.I think not having a Hurricane watch or warning does not help any.My wife just goes its only 70mph then I mention Ivans 50-60mph last year took out the power some.When stuff starts flying tomrrow morning alot of people will be surprised.By the way last set of Cors. only .3N slowing down.Change in direction coming?Clouds are starting to elongate in our direction.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:47 PM
Re: Dennis

thanks Colleen, I don't expect it to be to obad if all things stay consistent but boy, the complacency on the coast tonight is unbelievable.... and Biloxi has not been on the east side of anything in a long time.... so if this thing hits off to our west in the Bay St. Louis or Pass Christian area, I think its going to surprise a few people... guess I'll find out in the morning

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:49 PM
Re: Dennis

Hi Jav, and you are exactly right... we see 70 mph winds out of the south tomorrow and that is going to surprise a few people... I have not noticed the slow down but I'll go check the loop, that would NOT be good...

Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:50 PM
Re: Chat Room

Quote:

LOL..I just went into the chat room to see if anyone was in there talking about the storms; got kicked out for "behavior". How can I get myself in trouble when I'm the only one in there?




What were you saying?..............LOL


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:54 PM
Cindy

I'm not exactly sure where the LLC is but if it's where I think it is, it looks as though it's pulling a little more to the right. If i'm wrong, than it's about to make landfall.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:58 PM
Re: Chat Room

Yeah, I see your point!

Dennis is getting bigger by the minute, I swear it. Cindy looks like she's gonna take a lot of people by surprise - not a good thing.

Actually..I JUST NOW saw your point, ROFLOL! I wasn't saying anything...long day....jeesh...


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:12 PM
8PM Bouy Data

Just noticed the bouy data from a bouy west of the center with a NNE wind at 67kt sustained and 79 kt gusts. If this isn't a hurricane, I will be very surprised. Seems as though the center as of 8PM was south of the coast between Grand Isle and the Mouth of the Ms.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:15 PM
Re: 8PM Bouy Data

The Station he is referring to is Station SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06
28.87N 90.48W 24nm NNW of last reported center of Cindy.

That would convert to 77mph and gusts to 91mph.
Anemometer height: 40.4 m ( 133 feet above sea level) above site elevation.(NDBC)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPLL1

There is a conversion factor for height of winds above sea level. So this may or may not be considered Hurricane Force wind speeds.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:24 PM
Re: 8PM Bouy Data

If I see 79k gusts later tonight or in the am I'm not going to be a happy camper... based on these bouy reports it sure looks like she has gained Cat 1 status... unless of course the NHC feels there is a calibration or reliability issue with the bouy instrumentation... yeah right...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:25 PM
Re: 8PM Bouy Data

a local met. said that he has seen bouys with 90 mph sustained winds and 110 guest.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:31 PM
Cindy-Updated position

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:33 PM
Dennis

I have taken some time to see if I could write off Dennis for se fl..At this time,I can not say that we can.It has started a curve,and there are still things that could bring it to South Florida.We could all wake up on any given day and see the forcast change,we have seen that many times.But I do believe that Dennis will be a major hurricane.I still think that everyone from the east coast of Florida to Texas need to watch this one.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 05 2005 10:48 PM
New Thread

Mike has posted a new thread. Please post there.

" Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched "


Ricreig
(User)
Wed Jul 06 2005 03:38 AM
Re: ts/hur cindy, dennis

HF,
I have to agree that it is way too early to predict intensity. I would expect a hurricane but how strong is anyones guess. I'm not expecting more than Can I but we both know that with all the warm water in the Gulf, anything is possible, just not necessarlily likely. A lot depends on the 500mb ridge over Florida, how strong, eroded by Cindy, movement to the East etc. If it erodes or moves or weakens enough, Florida would likely see much more effect. If it stays on the forecast track, well, the central gulf will get another blast it doesn't need, not that anyone actually *needs* a hurricane on their front doorstep. Maybe Texas could use a strong depression to dump some rain where it is needed but no one really needs a tropical system visiting them. I also agree that the media hype and 'nicknames' are usually contraproductive. But, like the storms themselves, we, you and I can do little or nothing except to preach the facts as we understand them based upon knowledge and experience. You are an excellent prognosticator and I think have a good grasp of the technical stuff. I've lived through more stormes than I can remember going back as far as 1943 and including Camille, Donna, Betsy and others including 3 of 4 of the major storms last season. So, you have the knowledge, I have the experience, together, we have a shot at arriving at the truth, such as it is. The truth is that we simply don't know, but we *can* make educated guesses and with each season and each storm, we do try and learn and apply the knowledge. In our own ways, we are both passing on our knowledge of the storms. Hopefully, that will help someone make better decisions when they are faced with an unnwelcome visitor from the tropics. Take care, live long and prosper...

Richard
PS, excuse my spelling...it's 3:40am and I have to teach in the morning No time to proofread this one...



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