(Admin)

Thu Jul 07 2005 11:41 PM

Dennis and Cuba

8:30AM 8 July 2005
Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dennis has undergone yet another period of rapid intensification, now with a pressure drop of 12mb to 938mb and an increase in surface winds to at least 140mph. This comes from sampling the southeast quadrant; it remains to be seen whether or not stronger winds exist in the northeast quadrant. At the very least, a bump up in intensity will occur at 11am.

7AM 8 July 2005
Hurricane Dennis has remained a Category 4, even after being slightly disrupted by the Cuban peninsula earlier. it still has more of Cuba to go over to once again get disrupted, but in the meantime it is over very warm water now and has a chance to hold or strengthen its current strength until that happens.

This has a potential to devistate the areas over Cuba it crosses.

After Cuba, it will pass very close to Key West (maybe just west) -- close enough to feel hurricane strength winds. After which it will move northwest into the Eastern Gulf. Probably 150 miles or so west of the west coast of Florida, staying far enough offshore that the hurricane winds won't be felt along the west coast, although tropical storm force may be.

The short term 24-48 forecast track has been very good so far and the ultimate track is still trending some where along the Panhandle west toward New Orleans. With the highest probability near where Hurricane Ivan hit last year. The chances for a peninsular hit in Florida are dropping quickly. Which is good news for us in Florida. However,e it still has not cleared Cuba, so we must watch it. Probably until it passes north of our latitude. Still there is no reason to doubt the National Hurricane Center track. This would have landfall sometime late Sunday or Early Monday.

I know the folks in the Panhandle and Alabama do not want to hear this. And my heart goes out to them.

Please listen to local officials and or media as the storm nears. Follow any evacuation orders necessary. But do not evacuate unless you are asked to or live in a vulnerable area.

Original Update
Category 4 Hurricane Dennis is now approaching Cuba and will landfall, maybe twice, over the island. It's likely to be disrupted somewhat and weaken, although how much is up for debate.

The forecast track still points toward a western Florida Panhandle, but those west toward New Orleans and Eastward along the Western coast of florida will still need to watch Dennis. After Dennis crosses Cuba we should know more.

Clark Evans writes more in his blog below that you may be interested in.

More to come later...

Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.

You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down.

Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here.

Hopefully this will only last a short time.

Event Related Links

FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Monroe County/Florida Keys Emergency Management Bulletins

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands - Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar

Dennis
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis

Color Sat of Dennis

Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays

Cienfuegosa, Cuba Radar - (Animated)

RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Mobile Bay,
New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Maggie'sMom

(Registered User)

Thu Jul 07 2005 11:50 PM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Hello to all! I'm so grateful to this board and all its posters. I would go NUTS waiting on updates from other sources. What time do the next model runs come out? I'm trying to keep my eyes open (it's as if I watch and listen, I can somehow direct Dennis the other way.) Thanks for the info.

VandyBrad

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jul 07 2005 11:51 PM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Posted this in the other talkback just as this one was created so here goes again...

Quote:

-- but until the full suite of 00z runs comes out, it'll be tough to tell.

Around what time do they become available publicly. I assume 00z is midnight eastern time. How long after then until we can access them?

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 07 2005 11:53 PM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I, too, got caught in the old thread with my reply, so here goes...

00z is midnight Greenwich Mean Time, or along the Prime Meridian to our east. Currently, it corresponds to 8p ET. Model guidance from that time is just starting to come out and should continue to do so through the rest of the night, depending upon each model and the computing power available to it.

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jul 07 2005 11:55 PM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

Posted this in the other talkback just as this one was created so here goes again...

Quote:

-- but until the full suite of 00z runs comes out, it'll be tough to tell.

Around what time do they become available publicly. I assume 00z is midnight eastern time. How long after then until we can access them?

The 00Z refers to Zulu Time (GMT) so subtract fours hours to get EDT. I have found it takes about 4-6 hours after the model start time to get the info

gavsie

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Jul 07 2005 11:55 PM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

When will we ba able to see the new data?

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jul 07 2005 11:57 PM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Depends upon which site you use to get the data and how fast they get it. The GFS is coming out right now and can be seen directly from the source at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_l.shtml other models will be available elsewhere and also at various times through the night.

Best advice: don't wait up on the 00z model runs and just get some rest tonight. We'll all need it soon enough, I'm afraid.

EDIT: Speaking of the GFS...its landfall has shifted back slightly to the east once again, now paralleling the coast from Apalachicola to just west of Panama City in about two and a half days...or late morning-early afternoon Sunday. Not a big shock and only about 60-75 miles east of the NHC track.

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:01 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

When will we ba able to see the new data?

Sorry Clark, didn't mean to steal your thunder

I have found that the link below contains a nice suite of models which can be animated

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

ohioaninmiss

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:01 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Am I crazy or does the 00z GFS take Dennis right up the FL coast? I'm a bit new at reading these things!

VandyBrad

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:02 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Thanks for the prompt reply Clark. I think I'm going to have to call it a night as I've got a long day of research in the lab ahead of me. I want to take a second to thank everyone in this community for all of the insite they provide into these storms. I've tried to follow FLHurricane.com pretty religiously lately to try and help me plan what sort of emergency steps I need to take to make my lab at UF ready for a storm. As of now, it looks like we'll be out of the most severe weather, nothing like we experienced with Frances and Jeanne last year. As such, I don't think that I will take any steps tomorrow to "batten down the hatches" in the lab, but I'll have to keep a close eye on things in case Dennis decides to put a stop to the progress I've been making here. Such a scenario would put me in the lab on Sunday getting things ready. Unfortunately, the Gainesville area does not have a largely reliable weather source at our disposal. Most of our information comes out of Orlando or Jacksonville and neither of those mets pay much attention to us. That is where this community helps the most in my case. G'night all.

Breeezy

(Registered User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:09 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Clark....I love reading your posts. so may I ask what does the GFS shift mean for the peninsular and how accurate is GFS?

cjzydeco

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:09 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

The GFS is coming out right now and can be seen directly from the source at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_l.shtml

I can't get this link to work.

Ah! Fixed it! Just drop the semi colon and it works great.

G. J.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:10 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

cjzydeco,

that link is no good

VandyBrad

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:11 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

To get Clark's link to work, remove the semicolon from the end of the URL.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_l.shtml

gavsie

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:11 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I haven't been able to get it to work either. I went on to noaa site and tried to find it though. Has this cane gotten closer to the coast of florida?

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:14 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Someone asked earlier about the next updates.
Updates are issued every 3 hours.
Main Advisories are 6 hours apart, with
Intermediate Advisories at 3 hours after the Main Advisories.
2 am Intermediate
5 am Main
8 am Intermediate
11 am Main
and so on.
Just remember 2-5-8-11. AM or PM (EDT) for the Advisory times.

HanKFranK

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:20 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

it went over that little jut at cabo cruz an hour or two ago... inner core looks less symmetrical now. it ought to take half of tomorrow crossing central cuba at an oblique angle. the progs are still for the panhandle in the end.... the intensity track looks fair though i take note of the fact that hurricanes approaching the northern gulf coast usually weaken more than forecast. i was thinking okaloosa county fl this morning.. a little east over to walton/bay as of the evening. not going over any further, though. 100kt looks about right, give or take 10kt. 4PM Sunday the 10th, + or - 3 hrs.
gonna go see if i can find when the last july category 4 hurricane was. i'm sure it'll take a while.
the wave near the islands is staying active and low. it has a good chance to be something when it reaches the islands in 4-5 days.
catch y'all folks later.
HF 0519z08july

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:20 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Just got this on my weather bug.THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF
COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLY REQUIRING
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. ALL OTHER RESIDENTS OF SOUTH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS SYSTEM ALSO. Clark,did you get my last post?

G. J.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:21 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I got it to work. Just copy it, paste it, then delete up unitl the last letter. I'm seeing these models skirt the west coast of FL

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:22 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

two thoughts on the GFS model.

1. It looks like the initial location is too far south.

2. It has dennis heading for the middle keys and then taking a sudden jog to the west, avoiding the keys and moving further off shore.

Is it late and I've had too many jack daniels tonight, or what would cause the sudden jolt west and then a continuation on the NW course. And, am I right on the too far south comment?

VandyBrad

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:25 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

gonna go see if i can find when the last july category 4 hurricane was.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_climo.html

This weatherunderground image shows all July cat 3, 4, and 5 storms to pass within 600 miles of Dennis' center.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:28 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Abyrd -- remember, that was the position of the storm at 8p, not currently or as of the 11p advisory. It should be fairly close.

Breeezy -- the GFS is fair with tropical cyclones, though not the best. It's the most widely-used, however, and certainly worth consideration. Too early to tell what the various model oscillations end up resulting in for the Florida Panhandle, however.

Gotta turn in here for the night...have a good one everyone, we'll do this again tomorrow.

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:29 AM

Canadian Global shows MS hit?

Clark would you like to comment on the latest Canadian run which pretty much puts Dennis on the MS coast in 72 hours... almost a Camille like path.. I don't think Dennis will be more than a strong Cat 2 however as the approaches the northern or northeast gulf coast... just can't see water temps supporting much more than that, too shallow, too disturbed from Cindy... My opinion only... still a strong Cat 2 bad enough

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif

If I remember correctly the Canadian did real well with Ivan 4-5 days out and was the western outlier of all the models, and pretty much was one of the best performers showing Ivan going towards NO run after run, while all the others were all over the place...

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:30 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Dr. Max from NHC was just on CNN headline news and i think it was live, cuz he was talking about ham radio reports of major damage in south cuba with 20ft plus storm surge... and expects dennis to regain to a cat 3 maybe a 4 after crossing cuba into GOM.... also said that this is only the 7th time in history of tracking canes has there been a major one in july....

Here in PCB:
Also was able to fill up tanks for generator with gas an hour ago at a gas station..... most gas now is around town is $2.43 for unleaded, but i found a tom thumb for $2.13....yep!!!! the lines were all the way around the store!!!! i say maybe 40 plus vehicles too!!!! i talked to a person in side and he said a truck was a hour away and that they were told gas was going up 20 cents when it gets there from there supplier....said they are talking about how cindy affected them in GOM and cut production..... i think the state needs to jump in now and help!!!!!
Also wally world (wal-mart) was out of water/batteries and some other things.....good thing i went tuesday and got stuff!!!!

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:32 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

This site is the best.

Thanks clark. Looked at the six hour 00z GFS and, sure enough, right on target.

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:34 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

Quote:

gonna go see if i can find when the last july category 4 hurricane was.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_climo.html

This weatherunderground image shows all July cat 3, 4, and 5 storms to pass within 600 miles of Dennis' center.

Colleen A.

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I just spent a good 20-25 minutes looking at loops. As I looked at the at the water vapor loops for the GOM, Western Caribbean and Atlantic, I noticed some interesting things. It does appear to my untrained eyes that the short-wave trough is digging further south into the GOM. Then when I looked at the other one, it looks like Cindy's remnants are pushing the Bermuda High further east. The trough was not down this far about 4 - 5 hours ago. I made a note of it to keep checking back, and sure enough it does look like it's stronger than what the models were picking up on.
At least to me...if someone else wants to look at it and tell me if I'm right or wrong, please feel free to do so.

Lisa NC

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:43 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

was just looking at the UKM 00z models, it has Dennis coming in west of NO. If that were to happen, isn't that like the worst case for NO? The east side of the storm is usally the stronger correct.

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:46 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Yep and the UKM has been consistent with that track for some time now. I am just hoping that it doesn't turn out to be right this time.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:46 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

What a shocker.......not only is the UKMET not going east with the rest of the models., but the Canadian that was always the eastern most now significantly moves Dennis almost inline with the UKMET near LA. A change of over 300 miles or more. The whole deciding movement now lies with the storm itself over the next 12 hours. IF Dennis moves more NNW thru the morning and comes out east of 81W then the Keys and Western Florida up to landfall south of Tallahasse will be impacted the most. IF he moves NW or WNW as the 2 models above show and just skirts the southern coast and doesnt go inland thru morning. Then he will apparently come out of Cuba closer to 82W or further west of course. This will then most likely then take him NW and NNW near Biloxi and Mobile later Sunday. Florida Keys will still get squalls and so will most of Florida but from Panama City westward will feel most of this system. The ridge by most models are showing it hanging onto the eastern parts of Florida as the shortwaves diminish entering the gulf. This will not hamper the ridge as much as we might of thought and now we understand why some models wernt showing a weakness in the ridge.
Again we wont know how this all comes together until it does over the next 12 hours. Lets watch and see.

ohioaninmiss

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:46 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I found this table that breaks down the number of major hurricanes to hit the US mainland by month (but, unfortunately does not name them). Also, it is only 1900-2000. But it gives you some idea....

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/Table10.htm

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:47 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Yeah, and the Canadian puts it pretty close to NO as well... I guess these are the two western outliers...

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:50 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Scott, you the man. You stole my thunder. I just clicked refresh and nearly fell down with shock at the CMC. Now I am sitting here with baited breath waiting for some of the other 00Z runs. In one run it went from the Big Bend area of Florida to Gulfport. Yikes.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:52 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Looks like also on Sat and Radar that Dennis doesnt want to come back onshore Cuba anytime soon. Over the last few hours hes been staying offshore on more of a wnw jog. Ukmet looks to be right but we dont know forsure for hours.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:56 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

OK all the major models are in and the NOGAPS has also shifted west. Nogaps has landfall near Biloxi and near LA also. The NASA jetstream showed a strong midlevel ridge near 26n this will keep Dennis on more of a WNW then NW movement entering the gulf.
Looks like many in SE florida can go to sleep now but can expect some squalls.

scottsvb

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:00 AM

00z runs so far

on the CMC and UKM 00z runs i noticed that they both use cindy as she heads to the ne towards new england and both build a ridge over ohio, or in that gereral area and once cindy passed, it connects with the high off the east coast and builds pretty strong ridge over central mid atlantic, which would not allow a northeast turn as much....more wnw than nw....will have to see though....appears that the high off the east coast won't weaken that much, but this was the same problem last year the models had a time with....how strong is the bermuda high and how far around will dennis ride it? also noticed water temps of of tampa are not a warm as 2 weeks ago....and are shallow too..... i think shear will begin to affect storm late sat into sunday on the west side.... will see

FlaMommy

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:01 AM

Re: 00z runs so far

so would you say that tampa is pretty much out of the running for this thing???

SeeSaw99

(Registered User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:07 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Hi Scottsvb,

Can you tell me where I can find those new model plots? I've been looking at Weatherunderground, but there is a delay there, and I was wondering if you could direct me to where you are looking. Thanks!

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:07 AM

Re: 00z runs so far

not out of the running..... i think the major factor right now is how dennis reacts to cuba and crossing the country in GOM.... which a few miles left or right of track in cuba will be major shifts down the road in northern gulf. it looks like tampa and places southward will just get the outer bands...the keys maybe hurricane force, but not that bad...as what northern Gulf coast i say from LA/MS line to Panama City, will get on sunday

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:08 AM

Re: 00z runs so far

Well, it looks like the models are drawing battle lines right now -- some near Biloxi, others eastern/central Florida panhandle, with very little middle ground right now. This is where the forecasters earn their dollars -- why have the models shifted, what is going on, what will happen in the short-term, and ultimately...where is the storm going to make landfall?

On the Canadian model: surprised at the shift; in fact, surprised probably isn't the right word. I have no idea why it suddenly shifted, but it is something to watch. When models shift around, either something drastic has changed, or they really don't know what is going to happen. My bet is on the latter right now.

It's going to be a game of cat & mouse with the shortwaves and the strength of the ridge. The UWisconsin analyses show the westward extension into the SE Gulf, but then a sharp turn back towards the Big Bend area. This is confirmed by water vapor imagery. If Dennis is going to move WNW across Cuba, it's got to turn west now; it's already moving on a steady northwest path and looks ready to make a second landfall in the next couple of hours.

A series of shortwaves is lines up along the Rockies, ready to dive southward, enhanced by mesoscale convective complexes that fire each night along the frontrange. How far south will they reach, and how strong will they be? There's evidence to believe that they will pick up Dennis; there's also evidence to believe that they might not. Still, the emphasis of before that nowhere between New Orleans and S. Florida is safe rings even more true this early morning. I still believe a Florida landfall is likely, but as mentioned before -- no one in the aforementioned zone should be letting their guard down.

Colleen A.

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 AM

Re: 00z runs so far

Tampa is not out of the running for the reason that StormHunter just gave and also you're never out of the clear until it passes your lat/lon.
If the models continue a trend back towards the west in the next few runs, we should be okay, though. Just keep alert..things change fast.
The models didn't catch the door slamming shut on Jeanne's escape route until almost the very end.

Londovir

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

The FSU MM5 is chugging through it's 0Z run right now (it's up to about 9hrs out last time I refreshed it), and it looks so far to be edging it a bit southward of where it originally had it in the 12Z run before; ie, for it's position at 77W-78W, it looks a whisper-hair farther south in the new model run as the last.

The only downside is this model takes some time to do it's run (ie, it's only just now output the 12hr data as I've typed this.)

I do note one thing: it really predicts a hammering by Cuba on the storm's power: by about 9hrs out it models pressure to rise up to around 987 and wind speeds to drop to around 62kts. That's a heck of a walloping, and I'm doubtful it's going to take that much abuse.

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:10 AM

Re: 00z runs so far

Quote:

so would you say that tampa is pretty much out of the running for this thing???

No mam! Not until Dennis has passed through due west of you. In other words he has to be at least West thru NW of you to be out of the running. And on Land preferrably.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:12 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Londovir -- much of that is related to the bogus (re: "fake" vortex) used to initialize the storm in the model. It cannot always handle such a strong storm input into the model -- this is true of any model that employs a bogus vortex -- and takes some time, usually about 12hr, to stabilize around a model solution. I wouldn't read too much into the intensity projection out of the MM5 until the model takes the storm into the Gulf.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:13 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I am not a big model guy,just a few hours ago they had Dennis going over far west Cuba.Now it looks like central Cuba.These things change all the time.Cuba will have an impact on the motion of this storm.Just look at the models this morning and look how they have changed in just 24 hours.Let's not get caught up in this tech stuff.Look at where the warnings and watches are going up.I look at the WHOLE picture when I try to predict a storm.

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:16 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Clark - hate to ask, but, the All Star game is 114 hours out right now.. based on the models, it looks like Dennis is going to go watch the game. Am I correct in assuming, based on what is out there now, Detroit could see as much as 5" of rain on Tuesday night?

*ouch*

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:20 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Clark.....hey man, what's up. I agree about the CMC, it may be just an abboration but dang I wasn't expecting that jump.

Have you looked at sat lately? I was digesting some of the models and just looked back and to me, and I know it's getting past my bedtime........but.............Dennis seems to be reacting to Cuba the way I feared it might, by moving a little bit more WNW. Someone tell me if I need to go to bed......I have been looking at sats for 12 hours!

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:21 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I'll be there (MI) Wednesday. I'll let you know how it went...

Here is a Cuba radar shot of Dennis:

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB...cienfuegosa.gif

FlaMommy

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:21 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

ok everyone please keep up all the great work and ill be back in the morning...hopefully not to be evacuated....good night and keep us posted....you are AWESOME!!!!

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:22 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

20.3 78.4 is what it looks like to me, and that would surely be a more westerly motion over the last three hours. 1AM should be out soon to see for sure.

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

looks like Dennis will be 24 hours short of the game, if he even makes it up there.. but, NOAA seems to want to push a lot of rainfall in the area..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_120l.gif

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:26 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I may agree with you NLU... might as well wait up for it. If there is an affect, it is ever so slight... like 0.5 long, 0.4 lat over the last three hours. The strangest thing is that I find myself making the exact same comments about Dennis that I did with Ivan. The other day someone posted the superimposed tracks of the two storms, but I don't remember where. I was hoping to find it, since I hate to ask for things already posted, but I was unsuccessful, as I don't remember who posted it, when, or where it was at!

(Corrected for blatent spelling error...)
Thanks!

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:27 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

MR. Wilson!!! *L* Dennis i think is now taking a hit from the landfall/strike it made a few hours ago.... i think there also maybe an eyewall replacement going on, or the storms around the center have been interupted pretty good in the last few hours. IR from esl may hint at dennis riding the coast a little farther west than forcasted.... we will have to see....

IR channel 4 ESL

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:42 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

flaudbob.......I hope you're right, but that's a bold statement in light of the some of the models shifting, the UKMET's consistency of a LA strike and the current trend of Dennis to parallel the coast of Cuba, which could make a huge difference in the landfalling position, but hey what do I know?

I promise you this, I am not seeing things. I just stared at it for 10 minutes straight, and It's moving nearly due west in the last hour.

As much as I want to agree with you, I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. There's still enough uncertainity to include Grand Isle to the Big Bend of Florida.

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:45 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

You are correct . Since 0415Z he has moved nearly due West.
Appears and ERC is taking place also.
When is recon due back?

Londovir

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:45 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Looking at the radar presentation, I wouldn't be surprised if Dennis shoots for the Bay of Pigs, perhaps just north of the Island of Youth and cuts the western peninsula.

I keep thinking back to the models (and I know we've been talking about them a lot and how they change) that originally called for Dennis to go through western Cuba, and for awhile today it looked like a Cuban bisection was in the works (east to west). If the ridge built back up in time, it might be enough to depress Dennis' northward movement and keep him back on a WNW track that would shoot the gap I mentioned above and bring him over very little land whatsoever.

Oddly enough, the FSU MM5 back around the 12Z/0705 run took it in that general direction. Like I said, it'll be worth studying after the fact to see which models caught on to which legs of the true path for future analysis purpose.

I'm thinking, though, that we'll know about 65% certainty where Dennis is going by the 2pm advisory Friday. And I'm thinking (with nothing but a math degree to save my soul) that it's going to be a panhandle event of some sort...but I wish it would die off and fizzle, much as that won't happen.

Oh, and once again the local weather guys on TV were showing a map with supposed GOM water temps, and it was all colored in as being in the 89-91 degree range. I've been tempted to write them an email asking what their source is, since every darned buoy/ship out in the GOM is reporting nothing more than about 86 at the highest, and most around 84....

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:52 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

new runs are the closet yet i've seen with the strom

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif

would not want to be in pensacola sunday!

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:53 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Think the NHC is double checking a few things here? Wonder if they've noticed the more W trend and hence the lateness of the 2AM.

Or am I just missing it. Can't find the 2AM on any of my sites.

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:55 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

You spoke too soon.... 0.4 lat/0.9 long in last three hours... did I write something down wrong? I didn't see it as moving that much west.... But, pressure is up...

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:56 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

NOAA2 is out there, but are nearing the end of flight if not done

haven't seen any AF flights, thinking due to Cuba airspace restrictions

Londovir

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:58 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

2am is at least up at Weatherunderground: 2am Public Advisory

20.3N / 78.5W, still going NW at 15, pressure at 955.

Cuba reported gust around 67mph...so it's building for them. Going to be a long, dark night in Cuba. Why do these things always seem to love hitting areas after nightfall?

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:59 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
OVER WATER BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST...OR 80 MILES...125 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF CAMAGUEY AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD
CUBA.

Bingo.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 01:59 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

flaudbob.......I hope you're right, but that's a bold statement in light of the some of the models shifting, the UKMET's consistency of a LA strike and the current trend of Dennis to parallel the coast of Cuba, which could make a huge difference in the landfalling position, but hey what do I know?

I promise you this, I am not seeing things. I just stared at it for 10 minutes straight, and It's moving nearly due west in the last hour.And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.

As much as I want to agree with you, I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. There's still enough uncertainity to include Grand Isle to the Big Bend of Florida.

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:02 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

2am was late due to recon vortex from NOAA flight

opps forgot to wite RECCO Observations
here's latest i have:

000
URNT11 KWBC 080607
97779 06074 60195 7751/ 30600 19047 1007/ /3121
RMK NOAA2 0704A DENNIS OB 11 KWBC

That's a standard recon update. Not a vortex~danielw

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:04 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

flaudbob.......I hope you're right, but that's a bold statement in light of the some of the models shifting, the UKMET's consistency of a LA strike and the current trend of Dennis to parallel the coast of Cuba, which could make a huge difference in the landfalling position, but hey what do I know?

I promise you this, I am not seeing things. I just stared at it for 10 minutes straight, and It's moving nearly due west in the last hour. .And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.

As much as I want to agree with you, I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. There's still enough uncertainity to include Grand Isle to the Big Bend of Florida.

.And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:09 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Bob, sure I know about wobbles and this motion to the west in the last two hours is not just a wobble. At the same time, I am in no way saying that this is a permanent movement. It's going to have to do this for quite a few more hours before it would effect the overall motion. Lastly, I don't think I have ever called you a fool......I just so happen to disagree with your post regarding New Orleans. Sorry if I offended.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:14 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

You did not offend me at all.I think the 5:00pm update Friday will be huge.We should know then what the interaction with Cuba will bring.Do believe it is only July 8th????????We have a long way to go.

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Yes it has moved that way. But for the last 1.5 to 2 hours the eye has moved almost due WEST. That's 270degrees. And Dennis also appear to be in an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

Should he continue his current track. He will probably pass South of the Island off the Western tip of CUBA.
I believe that's the Isle of Youth ( Isla de la Juventad).

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I agree, that's the amazing part. We're staring at a classic cat 4 hurricane on July 8. Makes you wonder what we might be looking at on September 8.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Bob the chance the storm is coming to your house is about 1%. If your right, then you will be credited greatly. I will be in amazement of what made it do it. Anyways good luck to your forecast.

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

where do you think Dennis will strike cuba again....post some cords.

i am calling near -81w and 22n.
What is everyone else thinking second landfall will be?

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Again I said South Florida not Miami or Ft laud.

Colleen A.

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

We have a long way to go.

You can say that again.

I do see the more westward movement...also looks like the eye is reforming.
Guess what? It'll still be there in the morning.
I'm also guessing that by 8:00pm Sunday we'll know where it's going.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:24 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I was going to say that there is a more west trend,until the last frame.This thing will drive us all nuts.

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:26 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

http://merak.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

storms have refired near center...looks like on radar/sats, nw eyewall is open

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:26 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

If this trend continues it surely will get past 80W before making landfall in Cuba.

I'm losing eye functions..........need some Z's. Going to go get a couple of hours of sleep.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:28 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Do you see the shift back towards the north at the end?

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:30 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

If this trend continues it surely will get past 80W before making landfall in Cuba.

I'm losing eye functions..........need some Z's. Going to go get a couple of hours of sleep.

WIMP.....Just kidding,losing my mind wih this thing.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:30 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:36 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Easy does it.

berserkr

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:41 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

Again I said South Florida not Miami or Ft laud.

you are still thinking this thing will make landfall in Miami?

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:41 AM

NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

tornado00

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 02:55 AM

Re: NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL

If the storm continues to move north across Eastern Cuba, and then decides to turn north, it could put the west coast of Florida in the crosshairs. It's all a matter of timing. I would say that anything is possible with this storm, don't take your guard down.

Xavier

(Registered User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 03:08 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I would like to know if Polk County in Florida is gonna be affected?

Xavier

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 03:16 AM

Polk County,FL links

http://www.polk-county.net/county_offices/emergency_mgmt/disaster_prep.aspx

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM

NWS Miami Area Forecast Discussion~edited

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

...WINDS AND RAIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS CONTINUE
TO DEPEND ON TRACK OF HURRICANE DENNIS...NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. SEE LASTEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR SPECIFICS ON FORECAST FOR DENNIS.

FOR THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT WINDS AND RAINFALL TO PICK UP
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS
DENNIS MOVES NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR DENNIS HAS THE MAIN
THRUST OF THE STORM TO THE WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE SOUTHWEST TIP
OF THE PENINSULA...AROUND FLAMIGO...THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND
MONROE...AND COLLIER COUNTY TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATED COASTLINE IN
THESE AREAS.

full text available on Main Page.

geekicane

(Registered User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 03:57 AM

Re: Polk County,FL links

If anyone with knowledge is still awake out there I have a couple of questions: What is the topology of the cross section of cuba that Dennis is likely to transverse; and what information do we have about how such crossings effect the intensity of cyclones. I know land weakens a hurricane period, but how do the models take into account various factors such as mountains vs. flat plains etc.?

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 04:18 AM

Cuba Map limks

Here is a link to a relief Map of Cuba.
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/cuba_rel94.jpg
As far as the models go. They look more at the upper air features, than the surface features.
However, looking at the maps. The are some high ridges in Cuba. Sierra Maestra Mountain Range in the east, rising to 6,560 ft (2,000 m). Better than 3000ft in Southern Cuba. And 1000ft in the Havana area. I would think that they could certainly influence Dennis' wind flows.

rmbjoe1954

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 04:38 AM

Re: Cuba Map limks

I see Dennis moving WNW- Is JB correct that it may make landfall in western Cuba?

I do respect his assertions= perhaps we should consider his forecast with a bit more credibility .

rmbjoe1954

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 04:39 AM

Re: Cuba Map limks

I'm beginning to believe that Dennis will not DIRECTLY impact West Florida, either!

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 04:42 AM

5 AM Discussion~edited

HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

THE EYE BECAME A LITTLE DISRUPTED A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE HURRICANE CROSSED NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA. SINCE THEN...DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE SHALLOW WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA OVER A GROUP OF SMALL ISLANDS NAMED...ARCHIPIELAGO DE LA REINA...AND THE EYE HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
A NOAA PLANE JUST CHECKED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 113 KNOTS WITH THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY RADIOMETER(SFMR). INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR
ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR OVER CUBA BUT DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEN 305 AND 310 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 TO 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE POWERFULL HURRICANE WILL BE CROSSING CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DENNIS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE UK MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHER WEST AND THE GFS THE FARTHER EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.

Full Discussion is available on the Main Page

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 04:55 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Please consult your local NWS office for local statements, Watches and Warnings.
New Orleans/ Slidell, LA
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix

Mobile,AL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob

Tallahassee, FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae

Tampa, FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw

Jacksonville, FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax

Melbourne,FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb

Miami, FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl

Key West, FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/eyw

NWS Southern Region Headquarters
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/
clickable links to all NWS Offices.

Most of the current Watches, Statements and Warnings are available on the Main, or front page.

berserkr

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:03 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

yeppers, heading towards the border of AL/FL just like they forecasted DAYS ago.

edited to remove personal remarks.

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:04 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Argh... it didn't post and ate the entire thing... Take 2...

The more westerly motion at 5AM continues, with a change of 0.4N, 0.6W over the last three hours.... This has been the case, to some extent, all night.... Nine hours does not a wobble make....but, let's look over the last 12 hours, from 5PM-5AM, 1.7N, 2.5W... even the discussion agrees:

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL
MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DENNIS MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST.

Think about it... Not to personify the storm, but Dennis knows that if he crosses Cuba, he will weaken... Perhaps he's just not ready to do that right and and would prefer to skirt the coast a while longer.... It's just like with Ivan... when does it make the turn?

So, let's stop talking about who is right and who is wrong and focus on what this storm is doing and where it's going!
Thank you so very much!~danielw

geekicane

(Registered User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:10 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Vis a vis the new advisory and my previous question about how cuba will effect the intensity of Dennis. I find it puzzling that the most recent discussion says that the transverse will only weaken him 'slightly" and that Dennis will emerge in the gulf as a cat 4 storm. I would think that the cuba landfall would have a much more significant impact on the storm's intensity--dropping the central pressure at least by 20mb which would usually suggest wind speeds in the cat 2 range. Any help out there for my confusion?

berserkr

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:11 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

wow the eye is really starting to take shape and look impressive on the last frame of the latest IR loop, really starting to get nice, tight and compact:
0815 UTC frame
0845 UTC frame
last 12 frames - LOOPED

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:12 AM

Traffic Flow-FL/ AL state line

The FL DOT traffic flow website has continuosly shown, since 7 PM last night, above historical levels of traffic headed Westbound out of FL at the Alabama State Line.
Clickable Statewide Map of FLorida Traffic flows.
The Yellow Links are the active hourly counters.
http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/

If you are in an Evacuation Zone and plan on evacuating. Please don't wait until the weather conditions and or road conditions become too severe to leave.

Start your Planning Now. Reports from members last night indicate fuel stops have long lines, and were inflating prices.
Prices here in SE Mississippi jumped over 20 cents at some stations yesterday during a 12 hour period.

This post will be copied to the Disaster Forum for reference.

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:17 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

It all depends on where it crosses Cuba... I haven't seen the new 5AM map, but if it crosses at a 'fatter' place, there will be more reduction in intensity than if it passes nearer the tip. But, the thing about interactions with land, is that intensity reductions are more caused by a reduction of the latent heat of condensation, more so than friction. So, while the mountainous area may have more of a frictional effect than flat land, that's not the overriding factor. If it crosses back quickly into warm water, the loss of latent heat will be minimized and it can restrenghten.

Ok, now I've looked at the 5AM map... not much of a shift, just to the extreme west tip of FL (i.e. the FL/AL border)... not much change over Cuba, it appears. Strange.... you'd think they would have shifted the Cuba part more and not the FL part based on the discussion.

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:24 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

I was under the understanding, from being a member on this board and from learning of past hurricane interactions with land, that mountainous terrain does have a signficant impact on the structure of a hurricane. By skirting the more mountainous terrain in eastern Cuba, Dennis will not lose the punch it has by traversing the more flat terrain of western Cuba. I agree that the primary factor that land has with a hurricane is the loss of its source of "fuel" (the warm waters), but the terrain certainly does play a more significant role than just an insignificant factor.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:28 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Trying to watch the moisture flow off the north coast of Cuba where Dennis is expectedto emerge into the GOM and the strength of the ridge...right now the flowseems to be more NNW than NW,,,in the earlier frames it was NW but over the last several hours itseems to have developed a consistent NNW presentation.

this is something to watch for future trac considerations. If true and Dennis follows that flow the panhandle east of PC Beach is the target area

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:30 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Not saying it's not more significant than flat land... just commenting that latent heat is the biggest deal. I mean, friction is an interaction with a surface... there is a larger surface area for a mountainous area than there is for flat land... More surface, more friction....

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:32 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Notice the "blob" of weather on the last frame of the following just ESE of Tampa. If Dennis were to be there now, that would probably be his track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:32 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

I think the mountainous area would have more affect on a Troical Storm or Lower Category Hurricane.
Dennis is likely reaching above 50,000 feet into the atmosphere, and a 6200 ft mountain on the eastern side of his winds would seem to have more of an accelerating effect on the wind. Terra?

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:36 AM

Dennis the menace

Well looks like some particularly nice spots of Cuba are set to get a bashing, namely the tourist hotspots around Varedero. Of course, any deviation westwards will mean the Havana will be starring Dennis in the 'eye'. Given the intensity of Dennis, i feel very sorry for anyone caught in his path. I personally think that as Dennis crosses Cuba the eye will collapse, and Dennis will weaken. However, he has a large circulation, and i expect the wind field will expand as he moves over Cuba. Additionally, if the eye does collapse it wouldnt surprise me to see a newer, much larger eyewall form, especially as the centre exits into the GOM.

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:36 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Not sure about acceleration.... but, based on the surface interaction, higher storms have less of their base at the surface than shorter storms, so that would imply less interaction. One thing mountains can do, however, is force air aloft and cause more clouds and severe rainfall... so, might not be good for Cuba, but I guess they're used to it.

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:44 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Duh. Let me correct my earlier statement. I meant WSW of Tampa. So my post should have read:

Notice the "blob" of weather on the last frame of the following just WSW of Tampa. If Dennis were to be there now, that would probably be his track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

geekicane

(Registered User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:47 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

I have done a bit of research since my initial post concerning the effect of land masses on cyclones. It seems that topography is not a primary consideration. It is the time spent over a land mass that robs a hurricane of its energy source. Given this, the forecasters apparently believe that the storm will cross relatively quickly, but I assume there are other factors they are considering which may forestall the typical weakening we would expect from such a transverse. I just wonder what those other factors might be. Thanks for all your responses and insights!

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:52 AM

Re: Dennis the menace

Dennis is just staying far enough out so sea to the relative NW to SE orientation of Cuba to allow him to retain his significant strength. I pray for the people of Cuba when this thing takes his turn to more of a NNW turn. I mean, where do you evacutate to? His direction of motion is, in a way, similiar to skirting the West coast of Florida if there were an expected turn to the NE. Just a few degress and the time of the turn could mean a difference of hundreds of miles of the position of the eye at landfall.

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:52 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Quote:

Duh. Let me correct my earlier statement. I meant WSW of Tampa.

No worries, we're all tired.... (in fact, I need to go back to bed... I feel like I have a newborn getting up every couple hours). I knew what you meant!

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:53 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Quote:

I have done a bit of research since my initial post concerning the effect of land masses on cyclones. It seems that topography is not a primary consideration. It is the time spent over a land mass that robs a hurricane of its energy source. Given this, the forecasters apparently believe that the storm will cross relatively quickly, but I assume there are other factors they are considering which may forestall the typical weakening we would expect from such a transverse. I just wonder what those other factors might be. Thanks for all your responses and insights!

Good morning, everyone.

One factor that was mentioned in last night's discussion, as an intensity factor, is the eyewall replacement cycle. These cycles can disrupt the pattern/organization of a hurricane's eye, leading the temporary weakening of the storm. In the long term, however, strengthening can occur from these cycles. At the same time, an eye replacment cycle over land could be messy. One of the mets could better explain the physical processes that accompany one of these cycles.

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:55 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Quote:

Duh. Let me correct my earlier statement. I meant WSW of Tampa. So my post should have read:

Notice the "blob" of weather on the last frame of the following just WSW of Tampa. If Dennis were to be there now, that would probably be his track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

This is absolutely correct. Today is critical for watching 1) where Dennis emerges north of Cuba and 2) how/if the flow in the E. Gulf changes over the next 12-24 hours.

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:56 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Very interesting. The Local Mets here in Orlando have always discussed mountainous terrain such as the island of Hispanola and eastern Cuba as having a significant effect on hurricanes - like tearing it apart - much more than flat land. I would like to learn much more on the difference the terrain has on a hurricane.

tornado00

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 05:56 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

I'm not implying that this is the case with this storm, but has there ever been a hurricane which did not follow a single one of the models? Resulting in a total surprise somewhere?

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 06:00 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Charley~2004

geekicane

(Registered User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 06:06 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

You bring up an important point re: eye replacement cycles. Right now, looking at the latest infrared loop, Dennis' eye is contracting and looking very symmetrical in comparison with what we saw with his brief brush with Cuba yesterday. I assume that we will see further strenghtening in the next advisory. When will the next eye replacement cycle occur and what does that mean for the intensity going into the GOM?

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 06:07 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

For some reason, I can't think of a storm that explicitly tracked well off course of model projections (especially within a day or so). At this point in time, the model outputs should become increasingly consistent and refined. If not, then there might be something that is "missing" from the initialization of the pattern. I want to say that Charley made landfall south of most of the model projections last year. There may be numerous other examples, but there aren't many that come off the top of my head.

However, if you live along the west coast of Florida, then a landfall area between Appalachicola and Pensacola might be a big deal. The Appalachicola track would put the west coast of Florida at a greater risk for dangerous conditions...the Pensacola track allows for more breathing room. These two locations aren't extremely far from each other, and it's possible that future model runs may flip-flop between these two lacations. This is why everyone in Florida needs to be watching this storm.

On the flip side, hurricane conditions over the Peninsula (from Dennis) look unlikely at this time.

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 06:16 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Quote:

You bring up an important point re: eye replacement cycles. Right now, looking at the latest infrared loop, Dennis' eye is contracting and looking very symmetrical in comparison with what we saw with his brief brush with Cuba yesterday. I assume that we will see further strenghtening in the next advisory. When will the next eye replacement cycle occur and what does that mean for the intensity going into the GOM?

The replacement cycles usually occur every 6-12 hours...I think the next one might occur just north of Cuba. But ERC's are generally NOT forecastable. I agree that we could see more strengthening before this system reaches Cuba. For the crossing, I can already tell that Dennis isn't going to have to deal with much terrain for long. I think that Dennis will probably emerge from Cuba in a slightly disorganized state. However, tightening could occur as the storm moves further north.

IMO...and it's my opinion only...Dennis could possibly touch near category 5 status for a short period of time in the Gomex. This may not last for long though. As we already know, the 90 degree SST's don't extend all that far below the surface.

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 06:22 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

I don't mean to beat this subject to death, but I would like to re-explore the previous conversations about how mountainous terrain effects a hurricane vs. flat terrain.

Take a look at the eastern structure of Dennis on this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

Notice that not only is the mountainous terrain getting walloped by holding back the rotation, but look at the effect the terrain is having on the eastern structure of Dennis. It is literally causing it to break off from the general rotation.

I have to agree with what is maybe a falacy - that mountainous terrain has a much different effect than flat terrain. The difference is that the eye of Dennis is not crossing mountainous terrain, therefore, he should retain his strenght, for the most part. But if a cane's eye were to pass over mountainous terrain, are not the local Mets here in Orlando correct in saying that this type of terrain has a much greater effect on weakening a cane than does flat terrain?

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 06:25 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

...a very well defined eye at the 09:45Z infrared picture.

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 06:29 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Quote:

I have to agree with what is maybe a falacy - that mountainous terrain has a much different effect than flat terrain. The difference is that the eye of Dennis is not crossing mountainous terrain, therefore, he should retain his strenght, for the most part. But if a cane's eye were to pass over mountainous terrain, are not the local Mets here in Orlando correct in saying that this type of terrain has a much greater effect on weakening a cane than does flat terrain?

Moutainous terrain has a much more severe effect on a storm's inflow than does flat terrain. Moutains can also severely disrupt the eye in very intense hurricanes. Limited inflow into a storm's center as well as no energy source=death sentence for a hurricane.

Now I'm back to bed...lol...or wait...maybe i'll wait for the first visible.

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 06:33 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Seems he parted with the band that you were talking about. About 0945Z over the southern coast of Cuba.
The higher cloud tops on the ESE side of the storm are still there,but no high clouds are connecting them.

I saw the eye, too. Clearly featured.
Notice the beginning of a 'sawtooth' pattern, on the Northwestern part of the lower cloud, in the last few frames.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

javlin

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 07:16 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Oh contray in some cases,didn't you notice how Dennis quietly navigated the strait there didn't you.He is avioding land thus far but that is about to end with the tip of Cuba.The forward change of speed will not let him dodge the next parcel of land.I would expect a significant change W on the rest of the models that where E of the MS/AL line and this sucks.I mentioned this in reference to another response from a poster that once he cleared the strait look for a WNW direction.
The last 9 hrs has brought a 1.3N/2.0W @ 303'(290' is a better WNW).I really cannot see this Guy changing anytime soon with the forward speed increasing.The UKMET.EURO have been on N.O. for DAYS now.Then you throw the CMC that way and the latest track kinda of eerie for CGOM.The FL panhandle is not out of the woods yet for sure.Saturday morning the NHC should have a good handle on the track.

Like to add that an ULL looks to be developing possibly in TX.It's looks to be moving faster than Dennis could be our saving grace(MS\AL) if the two meet at that the right time.

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 07:19 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Guys - looking at the IR and WV loops, Dennis seems to be packing some pretty powerful storms as far as 400 miles directly east of his eye. I'm thinking I'm reading the IR wrong - he can't be that big. So, how far east are you seeing the storms flair up?

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 07:38 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

on the floater what does mslp mean? and i still think its gonna pull a charlie.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Jul 08 2005 07:42 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

It is time to put away the models as they have told us everything we need to know....Dennis' motion and the models have been projecting an exit off Cuba at 81-82 now for at least a day and a half...nothing will change on that end of the picture.
The critical area remains the ridge and particularly the western and NW side...WV pix now being processed of this area arepredictive of the future impact the various synoptic features will have on that ridge. The southern part of the ridge has reasserted itself and is very vigorous.
As it stands now the NHC track is verified up to the panahndle, and suggestive of a more eastern land fall nearer Apalachecola...however that depends on the resiliance of the trough barrier..it is possible and I think part of the NHC's thinking that Dennis as a Cat 3 or 4 will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region and will push that trough barrier north and west.
The trough on its southern reaches is pushing east and there is new energy from the NW diving down into Texas but that seems to flatten toward the east as it approaches the GOM. Don't look for the trough to further weaken the ridge on the NW today.
Anyway this is what I am going to watch all day...and disregard the models from here on until finis...
Sorry panhandle...as we are used to here any more hunker down.
If more people would do this kind of observation at this stage of an approaching storm at least for contingency planning we may avoid the OOPS factor so significant in Charley last year...some people here did and clearly said even before Charley crossed western Cuba that the Port Charlotte area was where the currents seemed to be pointing..too much reliance on the models created false impressions.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 07:42 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Quote:

on the floater what does mslp mean?

MSLP: Minimum Sea-Level Pressure (the lowest pressure found at the cyclone's center... either by aircraft recon or by satellite estimation techniques)

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 07:47 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

i threw the models away along time ago they remind too much as the bcs in football there very misleading too the local people here, and the local media is misleading too i have already seen polk county plates over here in daytona. hows the traffic everywhere else?

Ed G

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 07:54 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Good grief man.

Why do you say it's gonna "pull a charlie" and scare the bajesus out of a lot of people who are already way too nervous?

What's the proof you have that the pro's aren't giving us?

Ed G
Clermont, Fl

Lysis

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 07:55 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

yes... and what happened with "charlie" .

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 07:58 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

its just they are relying on the same models they were last year and they were wrong and just going by a gut feeling i have and i dont have it very often. i just dont like how every year they say panhandle way before it has gotten anywhere.

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 07:59 AM

8AM Advisory---Still 135mph

The 8am advisory is out ....everything is the same as the 5am (135mph 950 mb 28.05)....but Stewart does mention that the hurricane is becoming better organized. Since recon is just now reaching Dennis, I am sure the information presented in the newest advisory is just an extension of the 5am report....until the new recon data starts coming in. Looking at the latest satellite pics, there is no way that Dennis is not stronger than it was 3 hours ago. The eye is much better defined, with the intense convection wrapped all the way areound. I am sure recon will find winds are now closer to 150 with a central pressure near 27.70" (just my personal opinion....don't beat me with a stick for this non-technical viewpoint!)

--Lou

Lysis

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:01 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

For charley, this area was still under a hurricane watch/warning. While we were all surprised (NHC included) at what it did, no one should have been completely caught off guard. That is why we have such a large cone of error with these things.

Shalafi

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:04 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Ok sorry posted on emotions...no need for animosity in this situation...carry on.

Jax Chris

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:04 AM

Recon Plan of the Day

Today's recon Plan of the Day:
Code:

NOUS42 KNHC 071430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 07 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2005
         TCPOD NUMBER.....05-041

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE DENNIS
       FLIGHT ONE                    FLIGHT TWO
       A. 08/1200Z                   A. O8/1200,1800Z
       B. NOAA9 0804A DENNIS         B. AFXXX 0904A DENNIS
       C. 08/0600Z                   C. 08/0800Z
       D. NA                         D. 21.3N 79.8W
       E. NA                         E. 08/1100Z - 08/1830Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE                  FLIGHT FOUR
       A. 09/0000Z                   A. 09/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 1004A DENNIS         B. AFXXX 1104A DENNIS
       C. 08/1800Z                   C. 08/1800Z
       D. NA                         D. NA
       E. NA                         E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT        F. 24,000 TO 30,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE                   FLIGHT SIX
       A. 09/0000,0600Z              A. 09/0900,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 1204A DENNIS         B. NOAA2 1304A DENNIS
       C. 08/1930Z                   C. 09/0500Z
       D. 22.0N 81.8W                D. 24.0N 83.0W
       E. 08/2300Z TO 09/0630Z       E. 09/0830Z TO 09/1230Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

All times EDT:
Friday recons at 8 a.m. at surface and upper level.
Friday recon at 2 p.m. at surface.
Friday recon at 8 p.m. at surface, mid level and upper level.
Saturday recon at 2 a.m. at surface.
Saturday recon at 5 a.m. at surface.
Saturday recon at 8 a.m. at surface.

Note that on Friday the 8th we are getting recons every 6 hours; Saturday the recons go to every 3 hours.

Jax Chris

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:07 AM

Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph

And, the motion is still WNW over the past three hours (I know, I've been saying this all night, but it's been called NW, when it really wasn't). 0.2N, 0.4W..... 12-h motion from 8PM-8AM, 1.5N, 2.4W. I don't understand why they keep calling this NW....

It's eye is looking quite impressive this morning. Must have gone through an eyewall replacement cycle last night afterall...

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:08 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

im not talking bout anyone in here this room is great its the local news staions that are doing it. they do it every year and they make people go which way and then the storm usually follows them. ive tons of polk county plates over here this early in the morning.

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:11 AM

Dennis Track and Windfield

Look at this graphic of the track and current windfield of Dennis:

Dennis Track & Windfield

The hurricane-force winds are remaining just offshore the south coast of Cuba. Also, this close-up of the track shows Dennis running parallel to the coast. If this course continues for a few more hours, we could see the eye pass between the Isle Of Youth and the southern Cuban coast....on a track to cross Western Cuba in the narrowest part of the island. If this scenario plays out, the interraction of the land will not disrupt Dennis nearly as much as a landfall farther east. We could be looking at a stronger storm than originally thought moving into the SE Gulf.

On another note, I keep seeing reports that the Gulf water temperatures in the mid 80's are only warm in the shallow layers, indicating that the storm might actually weaken as it moves across the Gulf. Is this true??? In November 1985, we saw Hurricane Kate strengthen dramatically over the Gulf waters very late in the season when water temps were significantly cooler than we have right now. I don't see water temperature as a problem inhibiting the strength of this hurricane. Any thoughts from anyone??

--Lou

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:15 AM

Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph

I was feeling much better about south Florida,until the slow down as of the 8:00am adv.I touched on this late last night.Also it is going back to a more NW dir.South Florida should really watch this thing very very closely through out today and overnight.

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:17 AM

Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph

You did say this last night, and it was still moving WNW at that time.... not purely NW. Please take a look at the IR and the coordinates.

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:22 AM

well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to

The ridge must be rebuilding...I'm hearing Al/Fl state line.......which means it's slipping back west...

and I live on a boat in Mobile Bay.....I guess I'll tie it down and hi-tail it....

cat 5 soon....

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:24 AM

Warnings for Central Florida

Looking at this graphic from the NHC regarding the probability of tropical storm force winds affecting a specific area:

Tropical Storm Probability Graphic

If I am reading this correctly, we in inland Central Florida are running upwards of a 40% chance of experiencing tropical-strom force winds. Doesn't that warrant some sort of inland watches/warnings being posted??

--Lou

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:25 AM

looks like a buzz-saw...ANDREW TYPE OF STORM

it will get crazy here for the next two days...already is......

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:27 AM

Re: well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to

Quote:

The ridge must be rebuilding...I'm hearing Al/Fl state line.......which means it's slipping back west...

and I live on a boat in Mobile Bay.....I guess I'll tie it down and hi-tail it....

cat 5 soon....

Yikes ! I was dismayed to hear the same this morning !! The local news channel here in Mobile keeps repeating that the models are moving west. I've been on the fence about leaving. We were fine in Ivan last year, but gee.... it was a lonnnnggg night !! The problem is, I can't get dumb hubby to leave.

We may just have to hunker down -- the hurricane kit is all ready !

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:28 AM

Vortex Message... 938 Millibars!

Well, I believe I guessed pretty accurately about the latest pressure fall in Dennis. The first vortex message had just been transmitted from recon:

URNT12 KNHC 081215
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/11:59:00Z
B. 20 deg 55 min N
079 deg 32 min W
C. NA mb 2587 m
D. 70 kt
E. 126 deg 037 nm
F. 187 deg 136 kt
G. 100 deg 008 nm
H. 938 mb
I. 9 C/ 3054 m
J. 20 C/ 3051 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0804A DENNIS OB 06
MAX FL WIND 136 KT E QUAD 11:56:40 Z
WIND SHIFT AT SURFACE ABOUT 1MIN PRIOR TO FLT LVL FIX

That equates to a central pressure of 27.70 with surface winds around 140 mph! This storm is deepening fairly rapidly.

--Lou

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:30 AM

Slow down

My biggest concern now is the slow down in forward speed.Also what will happen when he interacts with land.Very good looking storm.

Ed G

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:32 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

all those polk county plates you are seeing are probably on the cars of roofers.

They'll be back my way tonight throwin' bud bottles out the windows as they cruise up 27.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:34 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

no actually they are regular compact cars full of families and with kids and no they are not vacationeers.

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:36 AM

Special NHC Statement

A special statement has just been issued by the NHC:

Quote:

000
WTNT64 KNHC 081225
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2005

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...

JUST AFTER 8 AM EDT...1200Z...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB...OR 27.70 INCHES...AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 136 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...INDICATING A SURFACE
WIND OF AROUND 140 MPH. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE AND STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
AN INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

--Lou

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:39 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Wow,that is more bad news.This is a heck of a storm.God help those people that will get hit by this monster.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:40 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited

Mountainous terrain will have an impact on two types of storms in particular: those with small inner cores and those that are relatively weak. The terrain causes all sorts of disruptions in the low-level flow, where the strongest part of a hurricane's circulation is found. This is above and beyond the normal effects of friction over flat land.

As noted in the revised first post, recon found a pressure of 938mb and flight level winds of 136kt in the southeast quadrant. They are on their way to the northeast quadrant and, given that data and the absolutely remarkable appearance on satellite imagery, I believe they may well find even stronger winds up there. We'll know by 11am, but Dennis is well on its way to potentially becoming a category 5 hurricane before making landfall once again in Cuba. The satellite appearance this morning is textbook -- though you may notice a slight elongation towards the north in later frames -- and the waters in that part of the basin just south of Cuba are the warmest and deepest in the entire Atlantic basin.

Needless to say, this storm is going to pack quite a fury for central Cuba later on today, and we can only hope that the trek over land -- and later, the trek to the north -- causes it to weaken and not maintain (to later strengthen over water).

To answer any potential follow-up question: no, I don't know of any category 5 hurricanes in July. I'm not saying this storm will become one, but it may be closer than we think and has the potential to do so in the next 6 hours or so before its rendezvous in Cuba.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:41 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

what was andrews pressure?

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:41 AM

maybe this is the one everyone has always feared

it looks bad for some city...real bad. the hurricane is taking a path, and is gonna go over the skinniest part of Cuba...won't affect it much...it'll enter the GULF as a major hurricane....

ominous

Lysis

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

938 mb! That is the lanfalling pressure of hurricane hazel in the 50's, and lower than charley's (941). If he makes a landfall around this, Dennis would get into the top 15 list.

EDIT: Andrew's pressure was 922mb, I think.

AgentB

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

From 11pm to 8am the movement has been much more west than north(.6N/1.4W). There has never been a substantial, continued movement due north.

The ridge did appear to weaken some yesterday, but has since built in a little more. That should keep Dennis moving on a NW(with a bit more W) track.

Also, the conditions in place when Charley came ashore aren't there this time around so a direct comparison between the two can't really be made.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM

Re: Dennis Track and Windfield

Intensity change is more than just warm waters -- for instance, Kate and a couple of other storms in 1985 were helped by the presence of mid-latitude troughs to their north and west, serving to enhance their outflow and provide a means for spinning up the low-level circulation. However, having warm surface water *and* having it warm to a sufficient depth (progressively deeper for a progressively stronger storm) is perhaps the most important of all of the external factors for intensity change.

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:43 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Quote:

what was andrews pressure?

922 mb for Andrew...If Dennis drops 4 mb he will equal Hugo's min pressure (934 mb)

Lysis

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:48 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

I have a question concerning pressure in correlation to windspeed. On this very site, you guys include pressure on the Saffir-Simpson scale, however I have observed that certain systems can very greatly in there pressure, and yet have the same winds. For example, Charley's low pressure of 941 millibars seemed to be quite low for 150 mph winds. Variability to such an extreme degree seems odd.

MikeC

(Admin)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:50 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Saffir simspon scale has no concept of pressure, those were listed only as a ballpark. The scale is purely windspeed.

So it can be off, a lot has to do with the surrounding pressure gradient as well.

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:51 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

good morning.....been out about town and now am seeing plywood going up on houses and the gas stations with lines.
Wow pressure falls in such shallow water, i kinda thought that would happen as long a the center ran up off the coast. Just saw the outbound leg on recon that has 136mph at 20.9 79.4...also had on 114mph winds at 20.9 79.6.

hey does this mean winds north at 30?
OBS 07 SFC WND 36030

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:51 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

is this thing drunk lol its wobbling alot. too much rum i guess and maybe some cuban cigars.

FlaMommy

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:53 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

i seen the cone and pretty much florida is out of it...am i seeing that right or is that just temporary?...i tell ya...sure made me breath a lil better....

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:53 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Clark(or anyone else),

Given the power of this storm,do you think we could see a polar effect later today or tonight,bringing it more north or even due north?I noticed the last couple frames it has moved back to a more nw movement.

Lysis

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:54 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Saffir simspon scale has no concept of pressure, those were listed only as a ballpark. The scale is purely windspeed.
Then why do you include it here... isn't it kind of misleading?

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:55 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

This thing is really strengthening...i expect at least a 10 mph increase at the 11am advisory...

tpratch

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:55 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

The trend (even short term) is still far more WNW than NW.

It wouldn't necessarily have to move NW before moving N, but there aren't any weather features that would suggest a turn to the north this soon.

Thunder

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:57 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Quote:

i seen the cone and pretty much florida is out of it...am i seeing that right or is that just temporary?...i tell ya...sure made me breath a lil better....

Um, the panhandle is still "Florida"...

Lysis

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:57 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Flamommy, we are not expecting hurricane conditions or anything of the sort over mainland florida (the panhandle is a another story

). This weekend *as of now* you can expect lots of rain, gusty winds around tropical storm strength, and perhapes some severe weather (tornadoes, etc) associated with the outer rain bands. But you really need to keep updating with us... as a powerfull tropical cyclone such as this so close to the peninsula bears the utmost attention. Again, if you are told to evacuate, do so... but I am not expecting that you will need to this time. Time will ultimately tell.

Ricreig

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 08:59 AM

Re: Warnings for Central Florida

Quote:

Looking at this graphic from the NHC regarding the probability of tropical storm force winds affecting a specific area:

Tropical Storm Probability Graphic

If I am reading this correctly, we in inland Central Florida are running upwards of a 40% chance of experiencing tropical-strom force winds. Doesn't that warrant some sort of inland watches/warnings being posted??

--Lou

Lou, This is a classic case of 'is the glass half full or half empty?' You are reading the graph correctly but it *could* be saying there is a 60% chance that you will NOT receive TS storm force.

What it does say is you need to continue your preparations and kkkeep posted.

Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise

berserkr

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:02 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Quote:

Given the power of this storm,do you think we could see a polar effect later today or tonight,bringing it more north or even due north?I noticed the last couple frames it has moved back to a more nw movement.

gosh will you quit wishcasting this storm NORTH already? every 10 minutes you have to chime in "look at the satellites, it's taking a N turn", "I have a bad feeling it is about to hook sharp North", "Lookout Miami!" etc. All you are doing is creating panic based on "gut feeling". enough already. face it, it's not going anywhere near Miami... get over it.

FlaMommy

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:02 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

im sorry i just woke up and didnt even realize that it was covering the panhandle....eyes playing tricks on me...i certainly agree lysis....but ty all....

Lysis

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:03 AM

Re: Warnings for Central Florida

This is sort of irrelevant... but I noticed that you receive a little graphic when you place your mouse pointer over the word " Dennis " .

I don't know if that has always been here, but awesome job Mike.

FlaMommy

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:04 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

he never said it was going to hit miami, he said a south florida hit NOT miami and NOT fl lauderdale....

tpratch

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:09 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

To be fair, he did clearly say that he didn't say Miami or Ft. Lauderdale - he's been saying South Florida.

However, I do agree 100% that it isn't even going NW yet, let alone N.

Shalafi

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:09 AM

Re: Warnings for Central Florida

Quote:

This is sort of irrelevant... but I noticed that you receive a little graphic when you place your mouse pointer over the word " Dennis " .

I don't know if that has always been here, but awesome job Mike.

Been there for awhile. Also you get explanations of a lot of the common abbreviations by putting your mouse over them. LLC, GFDL etc...VERY helpful for us that know nothing...

Also about Bob, I don't think he's wishcasting. He made a prediction and he wants to see if it comes true. Wishcasting and hoping it goes away wont help. It's going to go where it's going to go regardless how we feel. We are spectators. If you don't like it you can use the ignore function. It's a learning experience for all of us, not just those that agree with everyone else....

trinibaje

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:09 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Miami checking in... eerily quiet, beautiful morning... no one seems to care that we are under a tropical storm warning and a sever flood warning.... its business as usual....

I guess our weather will deteroriate as the day moves on

B.C.Francis

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:10 AM

Re: Warnings for Central Florida

That is a nice little feature, I love it........Good job.......Weatherchef

MikeC

(Admin)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:11 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

I've got a footnote about pressures on that table. People asked me general pressure ranges of different storm categories, so I left it there.

Folks we're going to be very quick in removing personal messages today on the boards. If you want to send something to a particular user that others won't/don't need to see please use PMs or one of the other forums. Trying to reduce clutter, and it's going to be judgement calls on the mods for the most part. We'll tend to move things off to the e/n forum or one of the others depending on the topic.

Rules will be relaxed after the storm passes.

Jax Chris

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:12 AM

Re: Warnings for Central Florida

Quote:

This is sort of irrelevant... but I noticed that you receive a little graphic when you place your mouse pointer over the word " Dennis " .

I don't know if that has always been here, but awesome job Mike.

Yeah, I'd noticed that the web site will automatically "Tool Tip" and link some abbreviations. Try these: NHC FSU (not UF though...bias?

) GFS NOAA NRL Ivan GOM Cindy (not UKM or UKMET) CMC NOGAPS MM5 ...

Each year this site just keeps getting more and more impressive. Hats off (and not just because the wind keeps blowing them).

Jax Chris

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:16 AM

polar effect

I would really like to get everyones input on this.This could be a great test for this theary.I think it is powerfull enough.Very interesting.

Katie

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:18 AM

Re: Warnings for Central Florida

Woke up, looks better for those of us in Central Florida (for now) I was at Wal Mart this morning and you would have thought it was the end of the world. Two women frantically collecting all the water they could along with batteries. Aren't we suppose to do that BEFORE hurricane season starts?

Ricreig

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:23 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Quote:

gosh will you quit wishcasting this storm NORTH already? every 10 minutes you have to chime in "look at the satellites, it's taking a N turn", "I have a bad feeling it is about to hook sharp North", "Lookout Miami!" etc. All you are doing is creating panic based on "gut feeling". enough already. face it, it's not going anywhere near Miami... get over it. ]

I really hate being the public defender here, but, this forum is not a good place for flames and indictments. As long as the longitude of a storm is EAST of your position and the Latitude SOUTH of your, you cann not afford to ignore *any* possiblities no matter how remote. Ignoring facts like that can cause you to get hurt if your ignore it just because it is not popular. I don't think he has ever stated Miama or a specific city. South Florida is what I read, and the Keys are in South Florida, as is any number of south west coast cities. While unlikely they will be hit directly, it is not impossible until the storm is North of them heading away.

His repetitiveness *may* be fear speaking, trying to get reassurance that it will NOT happen because he fears it might. Anyone living through Andrew or any other large storm often has emotional wounds that express themselves as fear, even irrational fear. I have seen any number of posts from people on this board that have the same fear and ask the question repeatedly.

This is not a time to be intolerant of fear, a Category IV hurricane IS something to have a healthy respect for and yes, maybe a little fear also. Lets' return the "Pucker Indes" to a lower value. Ignore if you must but exhibit a little tolerance also.

Richard

trinibaje

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:23 AM

Re: polar effect

Quote:

I would really like to get everyones input on this.This could be a great test for this theary.I think it is powerfull enough.Very interesting.

Bob.. you keep the discussion very interesting....

VandyBrad

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:23 AM

Re: polar effect

Quote:

I would really like to get everyones input on this.This could be a great test for this theary.I think it is powerfull enough.Very interesting.

Clark did mention that stronger storms tend to push northward moreso than weaker storms. He gave a great explanation as well. In this case, I'd expect that the effect may be muted due to the high directly north of Dennis. It would be like you trying to walk through the wall five feet from the doorway out of your house. Just my $0.02.

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:27 AM

Re: polar effect

Rapid Scan Operation Real-Time Imagery looks very sweet this morning!!!!

here's a sample
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/126.jpg

FlaMommy

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:28 AM

Re: polar effect

wow that is very very impressive....amazing at the size of this thing...

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:29 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

There are already three closures due to the storm in NO, and there is supposed to be some evacuation meeting at 11AM today.... Man, a little western shift and the panic begins....

WeatherNut

(Weather Master)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:29 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

I might be wrong, but I believe that because Charley was such a small storm (size) that it was able to spin up more quickly whereas a larger storm would take more time for the winds to catch up with falling pressure

emilywiseman

(Registered User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Very new to this... I'm in Mobile AL and have noticed a westward shift. Any predictions on if we will get a direct hit?

Lysis

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:39 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

It is very possible... You should probably start to get your stuff together no later than tomorrow.

Jax Chris

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:41 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Quote:

Very new to this... I'm in Mobile AL and have noticed a westward shift. Any predictions on if we will get a direct hit?

My prediction is that you should prepare. I'm not saying that it will hit Mobile or that it won't, just that if you wait until a prediction of a hit can be given with even a 50% chance of being correct it'll be too late to prepare sufficiently.

Jax Chris

palmetto

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:41 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

Anyone within the forecast cone needs to be getting their gear together and making their plans.

AdvAutoBob

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:44 AM

SW Florida observations

Cape Coral checking in.... a lot of people here are taking things seriously. I've seen two gas stations that are out of gas, and a couple of others with plastic bags over the regular nozzles... At our local Lowes and Home Depot, the generators are now flying off the pallets, along with storm panels and attaching hardware. The story is the same at our Sam's Club..generators, water, etc being loaded up. Not full-on panic mode, just people preparing. Later today and tonight that may change, especially if we wind up in the cone again (keep shifting in and out). People get paid on Fridays and that's when the last minute panic buying will likely set in.

As for myself, my generator's fueled and prepped, with all my storm supplies stocked up (did that early on), and am patiently watching the track to decide when (if) to put up at least some of my shutters (I have a rear wall nearly all glass). Thanks to all the mets and mods here at CFHC for a fantastic site, this is truly the best place for information.

Bob

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:46 AM

Re: Special NHC Statement

With Ivan, so many people tried to leave last years, that inland cities like Hattiesburg had traffice jams beyond their ability to handle. If you're going to get out the way of Dennis, you might want to do it now.

(I'll be spending the storm at a hospital here in Mobile.)

tpratch

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:46 AM

Mobile Hit

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/091832.shtml?prob?large

Based on that, and the size of this storm and its projected intensity of landfall, I'd secure your supplies and board up. An evacuation order isn't going to come until this evening at the soonest and your preparations should already be made.

Don't wait too long and be one of the folks scrounging around for plywood 24 hours out. That was me with Frances last year. Fortunately, Frances was a slow-moving storm that gave me enough time to get 4x8 3/4" board that friends and family had extra after doing their own houses. I ended up with just enough to spare and was even able to help an older woman across the street board up her front with the leftover sheet.

My new house came with hurricane ply, and my wife and I have our hurricane stores already set for the season.

I guess my point is this. the NHC has Dennis heading your way as do most of the models. It is prudent to take whatever steps you can. It's a lot easier to unboard a house after the storm misses, than it is to ride out a Cat 2+ without any protective measures. You certainly don't want to be boarding up while the rain and wind are picking up - that can get plain nasty.

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:46 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

Looking at the GOM water vapor

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Can Clark or any other MET comment on the ULLs over eastern Texas and the other in the SW Gulf and they're potential impact on the track of Dennis. I'm no expert, but it seems these two features may act to force Dennis more on a more northward path once it exits the north coast of Cuba and gains some latitude in the eastern GOM. Also, I notice the high (currently centered east of Daytona Beach) seems to be drifting a little to the NE. Don't know what it all means, but it seems a more parallel path to the florida west coast rather than a NW path into NO. Also, seems to indicate that some SW shear may impact the system as it gets into the northern GOM.

tornado00

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:51 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

And in the last few frames of this imagery, it apperas that the storm has taken an almost due north jog. If this is when it has decided to turn north, West Florida has got a bigger problem on their hands.

msmith43

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM

Re: SW Florida observations

I've been gathering supplies in Tampa over the last few days. Since Wednesday and Thursday there doesn't seem to be much concern among those in South Tampa. Neighborhood stores seem well-stocked. In fact, Sam's Club last night was still had pallets of generators, water, etc. and very few shoppers. Gas stations seemed a little busier than usual for a week night. Very different compared to 2004 with lines of people waiting 6-8 hours for plywood and water shipments.

Colleen A.

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:54 AM

Re: polar effect

I've always noticed in the past when tracking hurricanes that when the forward motion slows down, this usually indicates the beginning of a turn. The discussion mentioned that although the models have begun to turn to the west, that was probably due to the initialization of that westward movement and they believe that the NW turn will resume. I wonder if this is the beginning of that turn and that's why it's still listed as moving as NW and not WNW. If they don't change the motion in the next advisory, then that may be exactly what they are thinking. The local mets are saying that we ALL need to watch because sometimes when it moves over land it can disrupt the system and cause it to move. I guess we'll all just have to wait and see what happens...what else is new?

And yes, I KNOW that's he's had a more westward movement from 11pm to 8am, so please don't anyone yell at me.

tornado00

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 09:57 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

Even though none of the models don't see it happening, I think we should not get complacent. Anything can happen, its one of the most unpredictable sciences in the world. Yes, a panhandle landfall seems more likely than a Tampa, south florida hit. However, until it actually does make landfall in the Panhandle, we will not know what its really going to do.

MikeC

(Admin)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:01 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

Again I usually take the approach for reasons why a storm won't affect your area, not why they might. It usually gives a better perspective. There are many reasons why a S. Florida hit are not likely, and there are less for the panhandle.

I'm trying to find better news for the Panhandle, very hard, and can't right now.

Check the Everything and Nothing forum for moved posts, only blatantly bad stuff will get deleted.

MikeC

(Admin)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:04 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Also, wanted to suggest watching for persistence, watching wobbles right now is not important. The overal NHC track has been good, and I still expect it to be so. The cone still allows for error, if you spot something we are missing let us know here.

Speculation without reasoning will get bumped to E/N or storm forum while Dennis is on approach.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:06 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

Most definitely.

Hurricane tracking is a highly inexact science.

That the models/predictions have gotten better over the last few decades only makes it worse - because it is still very much an inexact science.

The cone of error is there for a damn good reason and everyone needs to respect that. If a hurricane watch or warning goes up, do the safe thing and finish your preparations. I-95 was a parking lot last year heading north during Frances and Jeanne. My parents decided to evacuate to the west coast of Florida for Frances, and they were a little better off - until the storms hit over there too.

Level-headedness is a trait everyone could use more of right now. So please, everyone - try and avoid making rash statements, wishcasting, and/or fearcasting.

The track is in the hands of the professionals now and there are many folks on this board whose insight is more valuable than gold. Let's give them the stage and continue our normal discussions.

I'm sure there will be plenty of people registering to ask questions any of us are qualified to answer ("where's the best place on the beach to watch an approaching hurricane?" - answer: "none")

Lake Toho - Kissimmee

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:10 AM

Re: Warnings for Central Florida

Any time anyone prepares for a hurricane its a good thing, regardless of whether the storm is approaching or the start of the hurricane season. Besides we do not know the financial situation of the people buying "last minute". Some people are poorer than others, and have to delay getting their hurricane supplies until they think they absolutely need it. The good news is, as it appears they are close to you, is that they will now have their supplies for the rest of the season. Also they could be shopping for others that are in the cross hairs of the storm. Keep in mind everyone's situation maybe different. I am more more fortunate than others, but I try to keep that in mind when facing the last minute hurricane crowds.

tornado00

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:11 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

The track predicting is in the hands of the experts, but personally, I think the track itself is in the hands of the weather. Their at mother natures mercy, just as everyone else is. They just have some more experience than most people, and a Ph.D.

MikeC

(Admin)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:12 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Reposted from Ron Basso (lost post):

Looking at the GOM water vapor

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Can Clark or any other MET comment on the ULLs over eastern Texas and the other in the SW Gulf and they're potential impact on the track of Dennis. I'm no expert, but it seems these two features may act to force Dennis more on a more northward path once it exits the north coast of Cuba and gains some latitude in the eastern GOM. Also, I notice the high (currently centered east of Daytona Beach) seems to be drifting a little to the NE. Don't know what it all means, but it seems a more parallel path to the florida west coast rather than a NW path into NO. Also, seems to indicate that some SW shear may impact the system as it gets into the northern GOM.

Katie

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:13 AM

What are the chances

Okay, just curious here.

Anyone know with past storms if this will be record breaking season (thus far) for one area to be hit by so many storms?

I know here in Polk County we got three last year and I know that the past three storms (if Dennis goes that way) didn't hit the exact same place but the Southern Gulf States were all affected.

I guess my question is, how normal is this for one particular area to just be slammed so many times in a year (and I say a year because Ivan paid a visit last year)? I just remember growing up and one season would have a hit in the South Carolina, or North Carolina or a hit in Florida or another Gulf State, but it just seems like the past year has not been very good for The Florida Penisula and Gulf States. Is this a trend for another season to come or are we going to be able to catch a break anytime soon?

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:13 AM

Re: Warnings for Central Florida

At 6:30 am this morning. The Home Deopt in west mobile had over 100 people waiting to get in. The store was full and no one could enter until someone left.

No matter the warning, a lot of people always wait until the last minute.

G. J.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:15 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

Have any of you heard any reports from Gitmo? Anyone with friends or family down there? Just wondering how bad things got there. I saw the report with the Dr. last night on CNN about getting Hamm radio reports of the surge and such (probably from Manzanillo or Santiago de Cuba), but nothing about our troops in Gitmo

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:15 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

Also, wanted to suggest watching for persistence, watching wobbles right now is not important. The overal NHC track has been good, and I still expect it to be so. The cone still allows for error, if you spot something we are missing let us know here.

Speculation without reasoning will get bumped to E/N or storm forum while Dennis is on approach.

Mike,I am not bashing the NHC at all,they do a great job.But it is not like the skinny black line has not changed over the last few days,it has.And with that cone.......kinda of hard not to look good.I mean the cone covers a big area.Anyway,looks like landfall in Cuba soon.

tornado00

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:17 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

That's most people for ya, procrastinators.

317288

(Registered User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:18 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

Does that appear to be some drier air being sucked in on the west side of dennis? If so,is this temparory?

AdvAutoBob

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:19 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

Quote:

And in the last few frames of this imagery, it apperas that the storm has taken an almost due north jog.

Maybe not due north, but definitely a northern jog. Perhaps it's just a wobble, but I'll check it again in a couple of hours to be sure. (Watching the trend, not the individual frames as our pros and semi-pros here tell us).

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:20 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Dennis appears to have resumed a NW motion the last few hours versus WNW in the early morning hours. Still very close to the NHC track though I think it will cross over Cuba somewhat to the right of the NHC track.
TG

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:21 AM

update

The 11 will have the latest recon right?

VandyBrad

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:22 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

Looking at the Cuban radar is kind of funny. The gap at the center of the radar frame makes it look like Dennis has two eyes...
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif

emilywiseman

(Registered User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:23 AM

Re: Warnings for Central Florida

I was at Home Depot(Mobile, AL) at 5:30 am and the line was about 100 deep, by 6:30 it was about 250 deep. Finally got a genarator at 8:00 am... Thats what I get for waiting till a storm is coming!!

Magic Hat

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:32 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Quote:

Quote:

watching wobbles right now is not important.

Last night around midnight central I saw the eye wobble north toward the Bahamas. What worried me was I didn't see any watches or warnings for the Bahamas. These things are too unpredictable to assume they will not change direction overnight. Fortunately for the Bahamas, that was just a little field trip for Dennis. He is still headed straight for my back yard and I can't gamble he will zig to the east just as he makes landfall like Ivan did. Ivan took a few shingles on the house and ruined the tin on my barn.
Thanks to everyone here. I'm a truck driver, stuck in a PA shop right now, and need as much info as possible to be able to get home in time to evacuate everyone. If this truck doesn't get fixed, the kids will be on their own this time and I don't like it one bit!!
God be with all in this monster's path.
Lu

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

I'm 100 percent positive that CUBA will be affected by Dennis

Looks like key west will be windy and wet with Dennis passing just to the West.

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM

Re: Dennis and Cuba

Any guesses on what the winds speed will be at the 11 am update?

Terry Johnson

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:34 AM

Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery

Gitmo is surrounded on the 3 sides by mountain ranges to the north and east and west and is fairly impervious to storms north of those mountains. I was stationed there from 1973-1976 and weathered Hurricanes Caroline and Eloise. Both, however tracked north of the base and we only got T.S winds and a hell of a lot of rain. Despite only those wind levels, I had rain coming in the cinder block walls of the barracks. I know they have improved things there somewhat since my stay, but being on the N.E side of this one, leads me to believe that they got a terrific surge coming into that bay from the south and the mountains could not help with breaking up the wind. I, too, am very interested in how they fared.

Jamiewx

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:39 AM

Dennis at 11am...nearly Cat 5

150mph gusts 185
NW at 14
938 mb

from the 11am package

Lysis

(User)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:41 AM

The West Coast will still be somewhat affected

I looked at the lunar forecast and we have a full moon tomorrow night, and yesterday and today the tides were unusually high in our harbor, with the water coming right up to the bottom of the dock. Anyone living on water on the West Coast of Florida may want to keep a close eye on their waters, and make some preparations for flooding. I know that, like my area, allot of these places do not flood very well. As always, to what degree we will flood depends on what track Dennis ultimately takes.
Locally, this may break the high tide during Tropical Storm Gabrielle, where the water breached over the sea wall.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:46 AM

almost on shore in Cuba

It is very close to being on shore,Ahead of the 2pm forcast.All hands on deck,this is a MONSTER!!!!Need all the pros now.

Jamiewx

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jul 08 2005 10:51 AM

Re: almost on shore in Cuba

new thread posted

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Fri Jul 08 2005 12:31 PM

Looks to be turning more northerly

not a good sign.. looks to me like ole'e Dennis is starting to make a more northerly turn instead of that WNW everyone wants to believe is going to happen. Somebody tell me this is NOT happening.

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