MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Jul 09 2005 11:49 AM
Dennis Back over the Gulf

6:00PM
Dennis Category 3 again. Recon Report and special update confirm that pressure has falled to 947mb...

more to come.


4:45PM
Strength is up a bit to 105MPH winds at 5, track remains steady. Hurricane Warnings for the keys are dropped, replaced with tropical storm warnings. Tropical Storm Warnings around southeast florida have been dropped. West coast still has Tropical Storm Warnings Up. Hurricane Warnings remain up for the Panhandle West to the Pearl River.

Dennis survived Cuba. In the past 6 hours, Dennis has managed to stay together and Its core is intact and rebuilding. Conditions ahead may allow to make it to become a Category 4 system before landfall late tomorrow, stronger than Ivan. Folks in the warning area need to be prepared yesterday,

4PM
Recon Reports Pressure back down to 958mb, Dennis is regaining some strength. more to come at 5PM.

Original Update
Dennis has weakened over cuba and now is a category 2 storm in the Gulf


High Res Visible Still of Dennis at 2:45PM


The forecast track hasn't changed much, still aiming toward the western Panhandle.

Intensity is going to be the biggest question now. If it can regain itself or not. It's got a small eye, so it has a shot, but right now it's moving over slightly cooler waters. More to come soon.


Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.

You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down.

Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here.

Hopefully this will only last a short time.

Event Related Links

Emergency Management
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Monroe County/Florida Keys,
Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)
http://www.msema.org/index.htm


StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands - Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar

Dennis
Google Map Plot of dennis along with Ivan
High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis

Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
(Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis

98L/Area in Central Atlantic
Animated Model Plot of 98L

Webcams, Video, Audio
WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL will be streaming video over hte internet from 5:30-6:30 PM tonight and then from 10PM until the storm is over. This is flhurricane met blogger Jason Kelley's TV Station.

Mark Sudduth's at coastal Alabama again ready to move east or west, he has a mobile observation tower he'll be leaving along the coast when Dennis arrives - Hurricane Trak/Mark Suddth Car & Tower Cam
Suncam.tv's collection of Dennis cam's and Mobile (not the city) cams - Suncam.tv's Moble Car Cam
Hurricane City and Jim Williams do audio shows nightly around 8PM
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
Key West Webcams
New Orleans webcams

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa, Mobile Bay,
New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne


yecatsjg
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 11:53 AM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Thanks for the map! I had heard here in Bradenton we would be on the edge of the tropical storm winds....

Stacey


DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 12:01 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Good Morning everyone.

Well the season is not taking its time in warming up again this year, so we have many months of storm watching ahead and I am looking forward to learning even more than I did last year.
For those that are new here, you have found a solid source of information from a well informed group of moderators and mets. Trust them, they are cool headed in the face of the storm, and will simply not led you wrong.
Rule of thumb....listen to your local authority on what alerts and such are going on in your neck of the woods.
Stock up on supplies early. Even though I am on the east coast close to Melbourne and not going to see much of Dennis, but for a bit of rain hopefully, I stocked the shelves from last year.
Check any supplies from last year for out dated stuff.
Then let the cooler heads that know far more than we who just watch tell us when to get worried.

Dawn


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 09 2005 12:39 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

well just read recon obs 10.... not much to read, but plane should be on the way back towards the center in a little bit

Dennis!!!

nasty squall just came through, alot of lightning and thunder....winds may have reached 15-25 gusts....heavy shower too


damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 12:42 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Stacey - I am in Bradenton too! So far not to bad here...we live in west-central bradenton, near bayshore gardens. A little windy, but not too bad.

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 12:43 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Down to CAT 1 90 MPH winds..

Could Cuba of killed this storm, it isnt intensifying, its losing strength every hourt if anything.


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 12:53 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

the 1pm says 100mph and pressure down to 965.

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Sat Jul 09 2005 12:53 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Quote:

Down to CAT 1 90 MPH winds..

Could Cuba of killed this storm, it isnt intensifying, its losing strength every hourt if anything.




Latest advisory as of 1 PM...100 mph still....
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/at200504.public.html


gavsie
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 12:56 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

I'm here in Tampa and I just heard a report that the trough to the west is pushing over and high to the east is falling back. Is there any truth to that? I was just told there would be more of a chance for stronger winds. Just wondering.

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 12:59 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Im listening to Hurricanecity.com broadcast of Channel 10 ABC and they said its a CAT 1 with 90MPH Winds. So I dont know, Sorry that what they said...

They just said its getting better organized, so its back to CAT 2...

They said 1PM advisory ups its winds to 100MPH from 90MPH.


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:04 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

the eye is looking much better on radar. eye wall is become more stuctured.

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:07 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

What Radar/Satellite you folks looking at?

LizL
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:08 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Well 1ish here in St cloud, strong wind took my canopy over my house ripped it and bent metal poles.. so much for that very windy here. gloomy and rainy looking too. WOndering what were in for next.

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:11 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Quote:

I'm here in Tampa and I just heard a report that the trough to the west is pushing over and high to the east is falling back. Is there any truth to that? I was just told there would be more of a chance for stronger winds. Just wondering.




The 1PM update from NHC now states they expect a gradual turn toward the N-NW tonite & sunday. The 11 AM disc hinted at perhaps a shift to the east in the FL panhandle for ultimate landfall. I found this line interesting from the 1 PM update.

A STORM SURGE OF
8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

Is the NHC tipping its hat? Do they expect a landfall in the big bend region of FL now? If so, that will probably mean a little worse weather for us folks on the west coast.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:14 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Yes, that was mentioned in the 11AM advisory; the track has shifted ever so slightly to the east a bit; also models are shifting back to the east (per NHC discussion). What this will do is cause him to track more to the NNW/N over time, which in turn would keep him closer to our shoreline - maybe push him a little closer. But don't expect landfall in Tampa; it'll probably happen closer to Pensacola/Panama City Beach.
BTW...where did you hear that report? A news outlet? Radio? Just curious...not skeptical, just curious!


FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:16 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

well we just got hit hard with a band and now under a tornado warning....winds got up to 26 ese....and its rianing hardcore....just thought id let everyone know....im in riverview and be ready....its a nasty one.....

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:16 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Quote:

What Radar/Satellite you folks looking at?




key west long range loop
radar link


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:20 PM
Recon

the pressure is stil dropping (964mb) Fl winds are up

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:21 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

If you read the 11:00am discussion, they talk about not being surprised to see the models shift to the east on the next runs because some of them did not pick up on the strength of the trough coming down. I posted that over on the last thread; unfortunately, it was right after they started a new thread. Of course, the closer he gets to us, the worse our weather will be. We may just see higher gusts than previously forecast along the coast and inland.
Remember...there's still a cone of uncertainty -- and the storm could end up taking the extreme right hand track, which would still LEAVE US out of the "Cone", but affect our weather.
No one can pinfall the exact landfall until it actually MAKES landfall.


msmith43
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:21 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Just started here in S.Tpa -- got very dark suddenly

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:23 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Boy..the winds here just picked up...I guess Im going to get the feeder band they were talking about an hour ago. Clouds look eerie..

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:25 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

First feeder ban coming into pensacola..looks impressive

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:27 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

sure does

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:28 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

just had a bear of a squall come through. A clear channel billboard across the way from me has just broke and the board is just hanging down. not good. Hate to see what happens to it on next squall. going to contact them to make them aware. hopefully they can get out here and secure it before it blows into our yards or houses. Does appear to me that we may get a little more wind than was predicted

jr928
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:28 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

that trough is digging more south than east and is not going to impact dennis with an easterly push because dennis will be north of the trough and if anything will get a boost in speed and intensity upon landfall by ms/al/fl borders. pascagoula trouble

Lysis
(User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:29 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

694mb What is that... like a category 8?

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:30 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

nothing could ever get that low. ha ha ha

cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:31 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Quote:

A STORM SURGE OF
8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

Is the NHC tipping its hat? Do they expect a landfall in the big bend region of FL now? If so, that will probably mean a little worse weather for us folks on the west coast.




The northeastern quadrant of a hurricane is usually considered worst side to be on because it is the location of the greatest onshore winds. The strom surge is usually much greater on the eastern side of the hurricane because winds are blowing onshore, pushing the ocean waters in front of it. On the western side, the predominant wind direction is offshore, and does not create as much storm surge. The path may have changed a bit, but I don't think the NHC is "tipping its hat" about landfall as much as informing those on the northeastern side of the landfall area to be ready for the expected surge.


garrison
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:32 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

lol

Cane Watcher
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:32 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Quote:

694mb What is that... like a category 8?




You beat me to it, I was about to post the same.


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:32 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

The storm will turn more to thennw. That was predicted. If it didn't it would hit Louisiana. Also, the NHC forecast of the FL/AL border is still east of most of the models. Also, Pensacola, Destin and Panama City are considered Northeast Gulf of Mexico, NO is central...Texas northwest.

jr928
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:34 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

east of panama city, I mean

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:34 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

GOM WV loop now shows the Texas/western gulf trough is no longer moving toward the East. Dennis is gaining the upper hand and moving steadily NW which is evident on the radar loops from Tampa and Key West.

jr928
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:36 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

yes, it's quite clear that unless that trough picks up big time energy this thing is going further west. which may be why they say the models aren't picking up the low and trough, maybe they are but they are correctly saying dennis will win the battle with them and continue west. New orleans if that holds

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:39 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

I understand & know the NE quad is the worst. My point, perhaps semantics, was NE GOM. would you label Mobile or Biloxi the NE GOM?? The main surge would only be confined to a relatively small area to the east of the eyewall.

cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:41 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Someone posted a link yesterday to a color satellite (IR or WV, not sure) loop that showed the whole atlantic and GOM. My computer crashed last night before I could add it to bookmarks. Anybody know what I'm talking about?

ohioaninmiss
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:44 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Actually, when they talk about the models not picking up the trough and the storm moving further east, I'm pretty sure that they are talking much further along the path (up near the tennessee border) They are talking about the GDFL and NOGAPS aligning more with others see:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_model.html


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:46 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Dennis eye is really looking impresive.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:46 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

it is strengthening

EaglezFan42
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:55 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

updated winds for west coast of fla to 40-50 mph with higher gusts as oppossed to earlier when 25-35 mph winds forecasted

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:56 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

ts wind radii may have increased

EaglezFan42
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:57 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

probably since dennis is strengthening

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:57 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

I was up at 5am and they forecasted 40-50 mph winds then too...it was on the local stations like FOX 13 and News Channel 8. The NHC said it was 25-35 but that was not updated for some time.

Sadie
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 01:58 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Quote:

Someone posted a link yesterday to a color satellite (IR or WV, not sure) loop that showed the whole atlantic and GOM. My computer crashed last night before I could add it to bookmarks. Anybody know what I'm talking about?




Is this what you're looking for?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:00 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Quote:

east of panama city, I mean




Where do you live that you confuse Pascagoula with Panama City?


cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:01 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Quote:

Is this what you're looking for?http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html



Yes! Thank you!


EaglezFan42
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:03 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

does anyone know the track of the trop. wave in the atlantic? so we can maybe get an idea if we can relax a little

KimmieL
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:03 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Afternoon everybody! Looking at the radar long range loop out of Key West shows a most impressive eye! It actually looks like the spin is tightening! The NHC spoke about it being over cooler water earlier. It sure seems to be heating up now though! We may see a wind increase in the next advisory or there abouts! Stay safe those of you who are experiencing the feeder bands.

Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:06 PM
dennis will strengthen..the eye has appeared...

could go to cat 4...probably come in as a 3-4...and weaken to a 2-3.. before landfall....

my guess stands as a strike on the Mississippi/Alabama as a major hurricane....

My boat will be toast.


(sure hope I'm wrong)


AndyG
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:09 PM
Re: dennis will strengthen..the eye has appeared...

We had one big gust earlier when that band came through that is almost to Tampa. Other than that, not too bad here.

Weatherbug at the Sarasota/Bradenton Airport shows the highest gust at 41 MPH.


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:15 PM
Re: dennis will strengthen..the eye has appeared...

Mr. Dunham, when are you going to give us your synopsis of what dennis will do?Waiting to hear your thoughts. In fact havent heard from Mr. Evans either. Just curious what the pros are thinking.

lagetawaay
(Registered User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:21 PM
Re: dennis will strengthen..the eye has appeared...

good afternoon folks newbie here real interesting chat sitting here about 40 miles from gulf shores waiting on it to come whats a realistic sustainted wind at land fall

cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:26 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Quote:

My point, perhaps semantics, was NE GOM. would you label Mobile or Biloxi the NE GOM??




I see what you're saying, but the NHC doesn't really talk in semantics. If you look at the whole GOM, 90 degrees west longitude, which runs through Lake Ponchetrain, is about the midline (I am apporximating of course). If you agree with this, then everything to the right of the 90W (including Biloxi anf Mobile) is in the eastern half of the GOM. And since I think we are all still expecting a northern gulf landfall, I think forecaster Stewart was simply making a blanket statement, saying that landfall would be somewhere in the eastern half of the GOM on the northern shore. If Stewart thought that a big bend landfall was a becoming a possibility, Stewart would have said so and explained the reasoning. Stewart does a great job of explaining why the NHC kept the same track, despite model runs pulling more to the left. I enjoy reading Stewart's stuff. Arguably one of the best at NHC.


Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:27 PM
Re: dennis will strengthen..the eye has appeared...

http://weather.unisys.com/eta/loop/eta_500_loop.html

Unysis 500 MB ETA model still has it going wetward hitting Mississippi.


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:27 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Accuweather has moved their track slightly west at 3PM...having landfall near Orange Beach AL,,,the exact same spot as Ivan

teal61
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:28 PM
Re: dennis will strengthen..the eye has appeared...

It is possible that the trough continues to dig south and by tommorow is southwest of Dennis. At that point Dennis could be begin to turn back to the northwest around the north side of it as high pressure builds in.

I'm not saying this will happen, but is another possibility.


drcrazibob
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:28 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

I thought everyone discovered NHC's Stewart was a "she" and not a "he" last year?

cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:29 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Yes, I forgot.

Lysis
(User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:32 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement


good afternoon folks newbie here real interesting chat sitting here about 40 miles from gulf shores waiting on it to come whats a realistic sustainted wind at land fall

While this statement could be rendered utterly erroneous, I would *at least* expect a landfall at an intensity a little stronger than what he is right now. I am thinking strong cat 2/weak 3. This is after a round of further intensification and then some weakening as he treks further up the Gulf of Mexico. 40 miles inland belies the strongest winds... but if he landfalls near your location, I would expect to see winds over the 100 mph mark.


teal61
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:33 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Quote:

I thought everyone discovered NHC's Stewart was a "she" and not a "he" last year?




Stewart is a he, I've seen him on tv.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:35 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Stacy Stewart is a he...............not she!!!

lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:35 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

howdy, does anyone have a link to a long satellite or radar loop? the longer the better. thanks!

sullynole
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:36 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Quote:

I thought everyone discovered NHC's Stewart was a "she" and not a "he" last year?




stewart is male.


drcrazibob
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:36 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Oh, ok... Sorry... I thought during last year's string of hurricanes some had mentioned Stewart being a she. My mistake.

cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:37 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Well I don't know. I just read the what he or she writes. I do remember a discussion about it last year, though.

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:37 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Key West has now had sustained winds over 40 mph for 17 hours (sounds like Francis from last year, eh?) with gusts from 55-74 mph. Total rainfall now 4 inches. I would expect some damage even though winds not that high but due to the long duration. Oh, and 5 ft storm tide too.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:37 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

stacy stewart is a he interview

Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:41 PM
Wow....

Here in Land O Lakes, FL...(North of Tampa) we just had a squall come through that was impressive! Several rotations in this squall. The lake here had white caps. The wind is hallowing and rain coming down so hard at a angle and it feels like needles. A couple of trees have fallen. It is suppose to be more around 6 this evening.

G. J.
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:43 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Quote:

Key West has now had sustained winds over 40 mph for 17 hours (sounds like Francis from last year, eh?) with gusts from 55-74 mph. Total rainfall now 4 inches. I would expect some damage even though winds not that high but due to the long duration.




All of Key West is without power, and a friend on Big Pine said they don't have power either.


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:43 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

anyone have a link to a satellite or radar loop that spans at least half a day, preferably longer? thanks!

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:43 PM
Re: Wow....

Latest recon has pressure down to 962. Would expect 105MPH at next advisory and then at 4 110MPH and an increase in the forecast at landfall back to a Cat 3.

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:45 PM
Re: Wow....

Can someone please send me a good forecast Model for this stom.. I usually use Two, but since I left the weather service, I lost a few of my links..

Thanks

I use Unisys now.


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:48 PM
Re: Wow....

Nate, click coordinates on the menu on the left, and hit play. You get plenty of models.

Anton Ross
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:49 PM
NHC's Stewart is a "he"

All,

Stacy Stewart is a Hurricane Specialist and Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center and has been forecasting hurricanes and tropical storms since 1986.

He is a he!

/grin

FYI...feeder bands are impacting us here in Charleston, SC. Lots of dark clouds, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Poor day to be driving a convertible!

Cheers,
Anton


kempshark
(Registered User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:52 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Yeah, talked to my buddy on Big Pine just 10 minutes ago, still most of the island without power. Some small parts do have power. He said its still fairly windy, but has been slowing down over the last 2 hours or so.

EaglezFan42
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:55 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Does anybody know if the underwater terrain affects a hurricane's path?

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:00 PM
Winds still 100MPH, but

Now they are mentioning the possibility of it becoming a cat3 again before landfall.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:02 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

yep and the pressure is still falling steadly

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:02 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

I think regaining Cat 3 is possible. However, I would expect some weakening prior to landfall due to cooler water. Landfall intensity probably no higher then a Cat 2.

BTW, Tornado Watch has been issueduntil 11:00PM; but apears to be only for the western half of Florida.


Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:03 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

3pm puts Dennis 295 miles south of Appalachacola(sp), according to Fox News Channel. Don't know how official that is.......Also CNN Headline was showing an impressive sat shot that you could see a pretty good eye from Dennis...

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:05 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

New blog post -- sorry about the delay!

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:06 PM
New Tornado Watch to 11pm EDT

Code:

FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA CHARLOTTE CITRUS
COLLIER DESOTO DIXIE
GILCHRIST GLADES HARDEE
HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS
HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LAKE LEE LEVY
MANATEE MARION MONROE
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SUMTER SUWANNEE
TAYLOR WAKULLA





Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:07 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

Yep, those are all western counties and the Big Bend area..

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:07 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

So....still think it's going to hit South Fla, as you've been saying the last three days?????? I think you guys need to pay more attention to the NHC. I know i do and if they say the ridge isn't going to weaken enough, then i am with them. All week you guys have been saying the ridge was going to weaken and Dennis would pull a "charley" and hit South Fla. It's a good thing you are not real mets because all of South Fla would evac'd and the panhandle and AL, MS, would be sitting ducks.

Please keep any concerns with one person's forecast to a private message in the future. We have already been through this debate on the boards over the past two days, and it does not need to be rehashed. Let's focus on where the storm is going, okay? -- Clark


jr928
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:09 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

clark, sats show it eating at the trough and winning the battle aleady by continuing nw flow?

weatherunderground models all coming together at ms/al coastline


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:13 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Well I have been keeping track and since 8am this morning the hurricane has moved more north than west. So I think it is looking like the MS Gulf Coast won't get much of anything, thank goodness.

Although the last coordinates (3pm eastern time) showed more of a westward movement, which is a little confusing. Every time it wobbles a bit I see a flurry of posting and questions. However over time the movement seems to be more constant.

My brother was supposed to be off tomorrow but of course the sheriff's office called him in (starting at 2am tomorrow, no kidding). He just called me after they finished boarding up their house in Pascagoula (he doesn't live that far from the beach).


damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:13 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Look, i don't mean any disrespect to any of you, but i am a total novice when it comes to hurricanes and steering currents. All this week you've had me worrying and i know this is just a hobby kind of thing for everyone here, but some of you have been pretty serious about the ridge causing Dennis to turn into the west cost of fla. Someone like me will go to any and all sites to try and get a better understanding of the weather situation, but i have to say that you guys have been way off with this one.

bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:15 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

No doubt this thing will strenghten in my mind......any guesses to how high they will go?

jr928
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:16 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

exactly, you should watch the weather to the west more than the east, once it is tracking west the westerly weather will impact most and that low is not coming east as far as they think. the models have picked it up and that's why the models say ms/al impact. watch nhc this afternoon around 6 or the 10pm, they'll go more west too. maybe?

firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:20 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Clark, Thank you for the update...it does make more sense then some of the comments that have been made in the past 12 hours. I really hope that people will settle down as the season has only just begun.

jr928
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:20 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp

shows biloxi direct hit with new orleans getting a good scare with any wobble


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:21 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Don't forget, do not concentrate on the center line. This burns a lot of people and is why the NHC considered elimnating it completely this year. One of the reasons they didn't is because they know someone else would just draw a line, so they, rightfully so, would prefer it to be one they made. Pay attention to the cone. Especially if you are within 100 miles either side of that line on the Northern Gulf Coast. All it takes is a wobble left or right to mean the difference between 50 MPH winds and 100 MPH winds. If you are on the Northern Gulf coast and in a warned area, especially those within the forecast cone, you should prepare as if the line is drawn at you. That is really the only safe way to do it.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:26 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Quote:

Look, i don't mean any disrespect to any of you, but i am a total novice when it comes to hurricanes and steering currents. All this week you've had me worrying and i know this is just a hobby kind of thing for everyone here, but some of you have been pretty serious about the ridge causing Dennis to turn into the west cost of fla. Someone like me will go to any and all sites to try and get a better understanding of the weather situation, but i have to say that you guys have been way off with this one.




This really should be moved off, but who was saying south florida other than fllaud? I gave plenty of reasons why South Florida wasn't likely. I tried to make the point clear that the most likely spot was the western panhandle for a while. With the cone being in the rest of Florida. The NHC's doing a good job with this storm. I'm not a met either, but I think that comment is wrongly directed. The very last line on every page here is the most important.

Anyway, Jason Kelley's station will be streaming video tonight, I posted a link on the main article.


trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:30 PM
SOUTH FLORIDA CHECK IN

southern miami dade county here. Well thank God this wasn't a direct hit... because we had no power last night for about 8 hours, trees and signs are down... its still very windy and rainy.... and i don't think NHC and the weather folks did a good job of preparing us for what to expect even if it wasn't a direct hit.

my two cents


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:30 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

For conch republic bashing......With all due respect, every person on this site who knows what they are talking about has called this storm right so far. If you spend enough time on here you learn who knows what they are talking about and who really doesn't. Spend time learning as much as you can about these storms and then the people who make uneducated predictions will not get you upset or worried.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:32 PM
Re: SOUTH FLORIDA CHECK IN

That was the job of the local forecasters. NHC's job is to predict the path of the storm. Tornado watches were up for the area. That is usually a sign that you need to be prepared for some rough weather. Not sure how anyone could have expected otherwise down there.

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:32 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

The eye of the storm is following the NHC forecast plots perfectly. If they were here I would buy them a beer. I just drove from Navarre to Gulf Breeze (east of Pensacola)..I can't believe how prepared everyone is. Even the Lowes and Walmart are closed. Very few vehicles on the road and all the boards are up. Pensacola is prepared!

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:35 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

I have bashed NHC in the past when I thought they were wrong. I have to give them very high kudos for their performance so far with Dennis. The verification errors have been about as small as I have ever seen. This is about as close to a perfect track forecast that I think is possible right now.

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:36 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Thanks for the post Mike C. You couldn`t have said it better......Weatherchef

stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:37 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

It may slide west a little but remember that the synoptic reasoning of a slightly more Eastern impact is sound based on the current environment. Tropical Systems tend to want to go North and East when approaching from the SE GoM. I do not know if this due to the Jetstream, Hadley Cell effect or what, but it is more usual then unusual.

Of course, if she hits West of Pascagula, I will gladly apologize. I for one would prefer it dissipate, but that is not an option anyone has.

No one is taking disrespect damejune2 about your comments but this is a forum for people to discuss Tropical Weather and we all post what we think, and sometimes what we feel. You will notice disclaimers everywhere that you should look to the NHC for official forecast. By the same token, we have Mets here and some very knowlegeable folks who make their opinions too, professional opinions based on knowledge and experience. I think you will learn more then you think if you look at the info posted along with the forecast of the NHC.

My opinion of course.


DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:37 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

I am new here also but I do spend many hours here reading and to my knowledge only one person said south florida would be hit and that was ftlaubob. Everyone else has been right on

stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:38 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Agreed about the NHC. They get creamed every Hurricane season, but they have been very sound with Dennis. Cheers to them!

mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:39 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

Quote:

yep and the pressure is still falling steadly




Prolly a dumb question, but why is it that both the other two times that the pressure has dropped to 962 the winds were at 110 mph and they are only at 100 mph now with the same pressure ??


DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:42 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

I second that. I have found the info here to be very helpful and there are many knowledgable folks here but I also look to the experts at NHC and watch the weather updates on tv. Thank you all for the info keep up the great work

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:42 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

This is where Water Temperature becomes a very serious issue in this storm. If the Water is above 78 dgrees, then there is a good chnace thatb this storm will continue to intensify.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:43 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

Wind does not ramp up immediately with the drop in pressure. There is a lag between the events quite often. There is not a direct correlation to a certain pressure and wind speed, either. There are other structural impacts that can cause a storm to have different wind speeds at the same pressure.

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:43 PM
Re: Kudos to NHC!

I agree - they've had this track pretty darn close except for the western jog over cuba (who could have predicted that?) and the consequent dramatic weakening. There seems to be alot of wishcasting by some and most of use can due w/o the "gut feeling" remarks. yes, I know some us our anxious, but let's try to educate ourselves & everyone else.

firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:44 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

I could not have said that better myself...I have learned that while you can not fool mother nature....she just loves messing with us.... I made sure my family was ready for Charlie and had my office ready starting on Wednesday before he hit...all we can really do to be safe is be prepared and have our plans in place. The NHC will provide us with the best information they can...this forum allows those of us who want to learn more to read and try and understand what and why things are happening from people who know alot more than at least I do. It does get tiring listening to ppl basking others and or demanding exact pin point calls every other minute.
As always I am very thankful to the people that are helping the rest of us to learn and understand...


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:44 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

damejune2, that is absolutely untrue. There has been one person -- one, not a professional meteorogist -- who had predicted a landfall in S. Florida, like Charley. Everyone else here -- including all of the professional mets who post here -- has been targeting the Florida Panhandle, with varying guesses as to where along the Panhandle. So far, so good. Please remember that this is a site run by hobbiests and enthusiasts and is not meant to take the place of the NHC.

Please refrain from blanket statements like that, as it only adds to the confusion on the board. People are already harried enough as it is, and making an assertation like that does not help. If you have a question with the forecasts or thinking that any of us posts, such as your previous comments, please send us a private message. Thanks.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:47 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Quote:

I thought everyone discovered NHC's Stewart was a "she" and not a "he" last year?




It's just the well-written, thoughtful discussions that made some people think he was a she, I guess...


TDW
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:48 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

Local weatherman said Mobile, AL has alread gotten 2+ inches of rain today with what they are calling a feeder band. It's only going to get worse.

drcrazibob
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:49 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

OK ok already, I'm sorry... my mistake... I already said I was wrong. it's a done deal. It's a he!!!!!!!

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:51 PM
CFHC POSTER BASHING

First of all, let me explain to you that this is a forum for WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS, not WEATHER EXPERTS...and we have them here, too. Secondly, I will direct you to this part of the 11:00AM discussion in which they address what you said they did NOT SAY earlier in the week. Actually, they DID say it, but the models did not pick up on it:

Quote:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT
CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.




Secondly, they shifted the track slightly to the EAST at 11:00AM, maybe by a hair, but with landfall closer to Pensacola, FL rather than to the MS/AL line.

Thirdly, they have continued to mention in each updated advisory SINCE 11:00AM that the storm is initially moving towards the NW with a gradual turn to the NNW from Saturday night into Sunday. That would rule out another poster's comments that they meant the turn would be up in TN, since the storm is to make landfall tomorrow. I also would think that if the models have now picked up on this trough and the ridge axis shifting more northward, then they will AGAIN adjust the track slightly to the EAST, bringing landfall somewhere in between Pensacola and Panama City Beach.
Lastly, I will address the rudeness of your post This is a site where people are allowed to air their thoughts (I'll admit some overdo it a little too often ). When a storm is approaching, we look at all kinds of scenarios. We happened to look at what we thought was the trough digging deeper down, which would push the storm closer to S. Florida. It did not happen in time, but until it passed the lat/lon of ANY part of S. Florida (and I believe the Keys would be considered S. Florida, don't you?) no one really knew what it was going to do. Now, I haven't seen a single post on here since this morning saying that it was still going to hit S. Florida.
As a longtime poster and member, I would kindly ask you to refrain from bashing others who simply like weather as a hobby. Some of us are better at it than others, but that doesn't mean we can't come here.
Thank you in advance.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:53 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Quote:

I am new here also but I do spend many hours here reading and to my knowledge only one person said south florida would be hit and that was ftlaubob. Everyone else has been right on




And, notice he hasn't been around lately.... After all of those posts the other day.....


firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:55 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Quote:

Quote:

I thought everyone discovered NHC's Stewart was a "she" and not a "he" last year?




It's just the well-written, thoughtful discussions that made some people think he was a she, I guess...




Very good one!!!!!!

Now back to Dennis....Clark...can you help me with this? I am currently looking at the western alt water vapor images and I can see the high appears to be pushing back west from both the west and south west....this appears to be pushing Dennis is a more north west motion....but just to the north west of Dennis I can see to frontal clouds being taken to the north east direction....is this about the area and direction that the turn may happen? Thank you...


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:56 PM
Re: CFHC POSTER BASHING

I couldnt agree more Colleen. Thank you for stating that.

TDW
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:56 PM
Re: CFHC POSTER BASHING

The NHC forcast maps always connect the dots with straight lines, but the path is curved. I know we are not supposed to follow the line, but I can't help it. Since the path is more likely to be curving from NW to NNW then N, should you put some bend in the line?

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:57 PM
Re: CFHC POSTER BASHING

Thank you Colleen A. I`ve been waiting for all the CFHC veterns to tell it like it is. I enjoy this forum. In the time I`ve been a member, I`ve learned more than I can imagine.......Back to the tropics......Weatherchef

lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:57 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

the horse is dead.....move on.

Girlnascar
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:58 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

The fact that the Eye didn't hit So Florida Direct doesn't negate the facts that there is severe and ongoing damage from Dennis. My local TV has been showing damages all day in these areas from this storm and who cares that the eye didn't hit straight on to So Florida, only goes to prove "THE FACT THAT YOU HAVE TO LOOK BEYOND THE CONE".

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 03:59 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

good explaination. dennis' eye is bocoming visible on infared

sullynole
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:02 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

pressure down to 958mb. it was noted in the last vortex msg that radar presentation is excellent!

sullynole
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:03 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

also, the eye is no longer open.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:04 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

yep. so dennis is making it comeback.

Dougyd
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:06 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

The NHC is right on track.

I think if they would expand the "Discussion" or add an additional report for us "weather nuts" it would help.

It would also be useful for them to discuss why they are "lagging" in different situations, as many of us folks are seeing changes that they "ignore".

I guess they do not want to" open up" as they will be subject to even more criticism if they are wrong.

Just a thought.
Doug
i


Hurricane Fredrick 1979
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:06 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

I made a post last night that there was another wave out in the Atlantic. Now they have opened it up as an investigation 98L and the models is carring it along Dennis path.

MarcoResi
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:09 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

Hey Any one have a link for the new depression in the east Atlantic starting to get it self together i think

NOTE: I removed your last post. The misleading/unfounded one liners need to stop.


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:11 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Quote:

It would also be useful for them to discuss why they are "lagging" in different situations, as many of us folks are seeing changes that they "ignore".

I guess they do not want to" open up" as they will be subject to even more criticism if they are wrong.

Just a thought.
Doug
i





Very simply, they don't report in real-time. They need to take the all data, analyze it, write up a report, verify it, create maps, then publish everything. That takes time.


Rob1966
(Registered User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:15 PM
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but

From a "newbe" to the forum, I think you all should give yourselves a pat on the back. For hobbiests to be as thorough, and passionate, and share with others, you should all be commened. I have been viewing posts for 5 days now, and have learned more in that time than in the years of following the media, and other so called "professionals". Keep up the great job!!!!!

gavsie
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:18 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Quote:

Yes, that was mentioned in the 11AM advisory; the track has shifted ever so slightly to the east a bit; also models are shifting back to the east (per NHC discussion). What this will do is cause him to track more to the NNW/N over time, which in turn would keep him closer to our shoreline - maybe push him a little closer. But don't expect landfall in Tampa; it'll probably happen closer to Pensacola/Panama City Beach.
BTW...where did you hear that report? A news outlet? Radio? Just curious...not skeptical, just curious!




Some Met on 38 news. I have no idea how relliable his report was. He was the only one I heard mention the shift at the time.


Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:18 PM
JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

Did anyone catch JB's report at 4pm on Fox News Channel? I mean is he trying to wishcast Dennis into New Orleans?????
He even called this storm a possible "Anti-Ivan" with a sharp left turn just off the coast and he said it would funnel right into NoLA.

Someone needs to tell him to knock it off with the NoLA predictions before someone gets hurt in the panhandle where about 99% of the mets and the computer models are forecasting.....

Just my .02 worth


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:21 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

I guess he figure's he's been saying that from the beginning, so he might as well stick with his original idea.... Who knows! The overall accuweather forcast is much more in line with the NHC.

FelixPuntaGorda
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:22 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

Looking at the current visible sat loop, it looks to me like there was a wobble? jog? to the left in the last few frames. Any comments from somebody who knows about these things?

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:25 PM
NNW Turn

As Clark mentioned in his blog, and as the NHC discussed earlier, it does appear that Dennis is beginning to make the NNW turn that the NHC predicted. I've heard 3 stations now referring to the fact that it is/has begun to make more of turn to the N/NW. You can also see it on the radar. Whether this is wobble or a trend, we'll find out soon enough.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:26 PM
eye

the eye is clearing out on infared we may see the intensity up at 5pm or the forcast up a bit if this trend (eye becoming more defined)

superfly
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:26 PM
looking organized

Dennis is starting to look very organized... here

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:27 PM
Re: looking organized

great pic and does look more formidable

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:29 PM
Re: NNW Turn

The NNW turn has always been predicted..without it, the storm would march ito LA...again..the NHC has been awesome..as to JB..I have been thru 6 storms here in the panhandle and they always turn right before the coast..never left. Even Arlene and Cindy did this this year...

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:29 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

Quote:

Did anyone catch JB's report at 4pm on Fox News Channel? I mean is he trying to wishcast Dennis into New Orleans?????
He even called this storm a possible "Anti-Ivan" with a sharp left turn just off the coast and he said it would funnel right into NoLA.

Someone needs to tell him to knock it off with the NoLA predictions before someone gets hurt in the panhandle where about 99% of the mets and the computer models are forecasting.....

Just my .02 worth




Well, he's got a 50/50 chance of being right (just kidding). JB is stubborn as a mule. I'm sure he truly believes this will happen - so it's an error of passion rather than intent. But as a scientist (I am myself), you gotta leave that stuff in the break room and err on the side of caution. But he is selling a service, I guess.


Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:30 PM
Re: looking organized

I think alot of people un Florida are just sick of what they have gone thru over the last year. Im jot going to rip on ahuone for being upset at tracks, cause I can see if I lived in a state where a devistating storm was going to effect my family, id be on pins and needles too.

That being said, I do believe last night in one of the other threads there was mention of the strom going more easterly and possibly effecting South Florida.


damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:31 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

You are right, i am wrong - sorry to offend any of you. BUT, why is it that i do remember several of you saying that Dennis would hook into the west cost? I am being told off by a bunch of people and for what, stating my opinion? I didn't call names nor did i think i was obscene. I thought my post was professional albeit a little blunt, but not immature in any way. I may not post on here 1000 times a week like some of you, but i sure as heck fire read 99% of the posts and i know i read at least a dozen or so threads with people wish casting this storm into South Fla.

KimmieL
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:31 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

I thought I saw it, you know, very scientifically, holding up a piece of paper and placing it on the loop! In the last hour it "looked" like it went a little more west than north. It is probably just a wobble, only time will tell.


Kimmie


AndyG
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:33 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

I've been seeing a movement to the W also. I thought that maybe I was just seeing things.

DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:33 PM
Re: CFHC POSTER BASHING

Very well said, Thank you for setting that straight, I have been coming here for a year now and found this site very usefull to me as I had to endure the wrath of both Frances and Jeanne last year. I have learned so much and anytime I feel uncertain I am on here reading everything I can. I respect the knowledge and opionions of everyone here and appreciate all that you do

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:36 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

It has not made the NNW turn yet. It continues NW very close to the NHC forecast (at least at the 4 pm advisory here in Pcola. I bet it tracks west of the forecast and then makes the usual turn right as it approaches the coast...I do agree with JB that water tempersture causes this. The water near the coast is slightly cooler than the warm pools in the gulf..at least that is what the local met says.

Lysis
(User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:36 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

Only one person called for a south Florida hit. People were saying that, given the ever-changing circumstances, Dennis *could* trek along the west coast. No one was dogmatic (as I think you are being). Irregardless to that, south Florida is currently being affected in a very minor fashion, which is what most people were forecasting to begin with. Sorry that you feel like everyone is ganging up on you.

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:36 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

I do look to the NHC and then compare it here and i have to say that the NHC, in most discussions i have read, didn't talk about little jogs here, and little jogs there, OH MY GOD does that mean it's turning right?! See, somewhat a little dramatic, know what i mean?! Most of what i read here is right on, but i felt, i don't know, alittle ganged up on by people wishing this thing to hit the west coast of fla. I look to the serious people on this site and i read their posts - they are the ones who don't talk about every single jog left and right and then start a whole string of "it's going right, it's going right!"

FelixPuntaGorda
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:37 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

Kimmie, I also held up a piece of paper. I'm glad I wasn't the only one who saw it.

Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:39 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

Prelim 5pm numbers-----

winds at 105mph

25.7N 84.6 W


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:41 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Dame, I understand what you are saying. But you must remember. The west coast of FL is where these people live and it is their priority. Some do go overboard and you can't blame them. Especially is they went thru a storm.. I try to listen to the 90% who are talking intelligently and trying to actually learn. Therre were a couple of people that really irritated me too, but overall this is a great site. Best I have found and I am glad I found it.

DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:41 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

you could skip over the ones you don't want to read as I sometimes do, I get behind on the post and read the ones I'm interested in

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:42 PM
5pm

90kts pressure 955mb

WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:42 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

Quote:

Prelim 5pm numbers-----

winds at 105mph

25.7N 84.6 W




Yup....955 MB

NW 14


damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:43 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

Sorry for the trouble - lets get back to the storm.

My area, Bradenton, Fla, has receieved a few inches of rain and some gusty winds, perhaps as high as 35-40 in my neighborhood. It's been surprisingly quiet around here most of the afternoon which leads me to believe that Dennis is tracking further west than expected.


damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:47 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Thank you and thats basically what i am saying - there were a few people on here who were really over dramatizing this whole thing and i got sick of it and lashed out - sorry. I went through all the hurricanes last year except Ivan, BUT, i still had to sit and watch to see if Ivan would turn towards the Fla peninsula or not. My family and I are a little anxious about these things now and we get freaked when 10 people say its going this way and then 4 smart alecs say it's coming here....anyway.......

BillD
(User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:47 PM
Re: 5pm

They also dropped the Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida East coast and the Upper Keys, and downgraded the Hurricane Warning in the Lower Keys to Tropical Storm Warning.

Bill


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:47 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Most folks know that these things wobble along a more general path and take that in stride. Just got "burned" with Charley last year and it's sudden turn inland. We're just a bit jumpy these days after last season. We don't "wish" these storms on anyone let alone ourselves.

KimmieL
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:48 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

Felix,
The more he wobbles to the left, hopefully, the less likely he is to take a direct swat at Pensacola/Mobile. I certainly don't wish this storm on anyone, but, at the same time, all of you guys in Florida from the Keys to the Panhandle have had so much to deal with in the last year! Maybe he will just go away!

Kimmie


Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:50 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Lets drop it okay? This is supposed to be informative and yes fun. I was many that a few days ago questioned where it might go, perhaps closer to the west coast. After all, we had this very good Canadian GEM model which predicted just that. In addition, nobody knew what the effect of going over the land mass of Cuba might do to the path of the storm. People tend to get a little nervous when a storm is blowing at 150 mph. Trying to read the tea leaves about where it might go is what makes this site interesting. Let's all chill out.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:51 PM
Re: looking organized

Yes in just the last three satellite photos...looks like the central core is getting very well-defined.

Well I am going to take a much-needed break and go outside and get some sun. I'll come back this evening and hope to see some good news for my brother in Pascagoula.

We talked awhile ago and he agreed that flooding is the main threat from tropical storms in Jackson Co...he said that some parts of the county were 12-14 ft underwater after George hit (I think the eye from George hit Biloxi or thereabouts). This was mostly not right on the coast, but up on into the back part of the county where it is mostly estuary and rivers. Even though he lives less than a half mile from the beach he is more than 15 feet above sea level, but much of the county is at sea level.

He agreed that even with a hit as close as MOB they won't see too much, and if the storm lands east of MOB and hits in FL they won't see much wind or rain at all. So it is kind of an either or situation for them. I just hope that he won't be having to do too many rescues in bad weather, if they do happen to get hit. They usually have to go out until the weather gets pretty much impossible to do so. That is what makes me worry -- when a hurricane hits he is never hunkering down in a house, safely waiting it out, but is instead pretty much right on the front line.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:51 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

Quote:

Sorry for the trouble - lets get back to the storm.

My area, Bradenton, Fla, has receieved a few inches of rain and some gusty winds, perhaps as high as 35-40 in my neighborhood. It's been surprisingly quiet around here most of the afternoon which leads me to believe that Dennis is tracking further west than expected.


20-30 MPH in Pinellas County now. Nothing to get excited about. Looking at the GOM Vis loop and the Tampa Bay long range radar loop, the NW motion is continuing in general.

gavsie
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:51 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Let it go already. People are wrong everyday about all sorts of things. I doubt being wrong about something as unpredictable as the weather is a crime. Have you read all of the site? Not to be taken as a replacement for other local news. This is just a bunch of people who enjoy trying to figure out whats going on. I am a student and happen to have a Met class right now and I enjoy hearing all views and idea whether they are wrong or right. It is all just educated guessing. Do you have any better ideas?

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:53 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Well said Michael A. History tells us that even a wobble can mean the difference between ts winds and hurricane winds effecting you.

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:53 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

NHC says Dennis will be a CAT 3 by tonight...new track brings it to the FL/AL border.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:54 PM
Re: looking organized

look at that eye

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:54 PM
Re: JB on Fox News at 4pm ET

ok guys i admit i was wrong this time. im now 3-1 this year. but the models were absolutely great. very accurate. ok bout that other storm des the models look bad news for florida again? all my prayers too panhandle and all the other states who get drilled with rain.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:56 PM
Re: NNW Turn

Okay, pcola. You and I may be hearing different things from different outlets. But the turn is predicted to turn BEFORE making landfall, not as it is.
That being said, wherever it hits will be within the "cone". However, if it starts its turn sooner, then it will make a big difference to those who are EAST of the forecasted path.
I'm not going to beat another dead horse; we have enough dead ones lying on CFHC floor to supply an entire school district with Elmers glue.

NW movement on the 5pm advisory is still there, so we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
For now...I'm gonna go have a beer and watch the feeder bands come through. I had enough hurricanes last year to last me a lifetime, so there's no wishcasting going on HERE, believe me.


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:57 PM
New Invest

Yep....been trying to look at that but obviously Dennis is the main action. Been seeing a lot of post info here and other boards, both Hobbiest and Professional, with experts saying that SSTs and low Shear is more like Mid-August then July. It is going to be a long and interesting season.

First we must get rid of Dennis.


BillD
(User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 04:57 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

What some people seem to forget is that Charley did exactly what the NHC said it might do. The landfall was within the cone. This is why "watching the line" is a not a good thing to do. As far as a South Florida hit, there was a short period of time a couple of days ago when we were in the cone, but the cone gradually shifted to the left until all of Florda but the Panhandle was out of it.

Bill


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:01 PM
5pm Disscusion

the disscusion metions the possibillity of of regain Cat 4 status

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:02 PM
Re: NNW Turn

I agree Coleen, I have had enough too. I think they follow me. My first was Agnes in the early 70's. We had a condo at Longboat and went to Disney to ride it out. Got back to Pittsburgh only to have 6FT water in house from Agnes flooding. Since moving to Pcola, have had way to many. This may be my last. Snowstorms are looking pretty good.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:04 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Quote:

NHC says Dennis will be a CAT 3 by tonight...new track brings it to the FL/AL border.




Where do you see the info about the new track? Was it in Discussion #21 (I don't see that yet on wunderground, just adv #21).

So now the pressure is down to what it was when Dennis was a CAT 3 earlier, and adv #21 is certain Dennis will increase in intensity to CAT 3. So this means the winds will catch up with the pressure drops right? Also am I understanding this correctly - did Dennis just go througth an ERC? The eye has appeared and is larger, does this mean that the eye will now shrink a bit, and the winds increase?


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:05 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Its cool. We have a good group who live on the Penisular here and our a bit jumpy when you see sudden moves towards you. I wonder if anyone said that last year with Charley? I'm just saying that you have to sift through some post that are a little emotion driven and weed out the good stuff. I'm done with this because it is to tense watching Dennis.

Dennis may be trying to go more North but still looks NW to me and on NHCs track.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:06 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

firestar_1 -- yeah, that's about where you'd want to look for that turn.

To address another comment I saw (forgot the poster) -- NHC isn't going to ever do anything that would potentially bring more criticism their way. Their time is pretty limited during each 6hr advisory cycle as it is, so it is highly unlikely that you'll ever see anything like a "hobbyist" discussion on their end. But, that's what the rest of the web is good for.


AndyG
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:06 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Does it look to anyone else that Dennis has slowed/stalled a little?

WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:08 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Man guys, I don't like this at all. Dennis is bombing out again, and in my opinion it's going to get ugly. You're not going to find a much better looking early July hurricane and Dennis is really getting it together quickly. The pressure is down to 955, and I promise you the winds are higher than 105. Of course, this is just my opinion, but I think Dennis is going to be a mininmal CAT 4 by landfall. Not trying to scare anyone, but I think it needs to be said.

susieq
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:09 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

What's happening to the right quadrant here? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:09 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Wow they are now saying a Cat 4 is possible. This thing is really strengthening and fast.

BobVee
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:10 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Thanks for that reminder. My recollection as well is that the NHC and contributors on this site all discussed this at length prior to any landfall. Everyone knew that it was going to turn, just not exactly when thus where. The only bashing that I would ever do would be at the news media who talk so much that it confuses the dickens out of most people. I for one appreciate the people who contribute to this forum and lend a great deal of credibility to the extremely dynamic study of weather. I am not a met. but am an engineer who understands probability. In a constant changing environment, probability is the only mechanism for determination.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:10 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

damejune2, there was just the one person there who continually tried to push the storm into S. Florida. Others may have posted questions asking if it were possible, but it was just the one poster with those comments. You are making a broad assumption about everyone here with your remarks, one that I feel is unearned. I apologize if my post came across as blunt, but I felt it necessary to defend the integrity of this website, as it is (IMO) the best such site on the Internet. The community here is relatively small, but most everyone either knows their stuff or wants to learn more about these things...you don't find that much of anywhere else.

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:10 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

yes it does look like it has slowed. Also the 4:00 estimate and the 5:00 advisory had the same coord.

susieq
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:11 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Come on, people. There's a storm out there. Let this stuff go.

What's happening to Dennis? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:14 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

yes it is really deepening. still not to the rapid or explosive deepening yet. it is just below (1.66 mb/hr for 10hrs) rapid deepening (1.75 mb/hr for 24 hours) still this is significant strengthening.

susieq
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:15 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

It looks like the right quad is losing some of its umph. What would cause it? Is it just temporary?

stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:17 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

It does appear to be exploding in intensity. Hopefully it will hit the cool waters near the coast and fade before landfall. Glad it is not approaching like Charley at a higher speed where it would not feel the effects of the cooler water around the coast.

Seeing the eye appearing in the last few frames to.


dearolecleo
(Registered User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:29 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Going away is a good thing

stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:29 PM
Excited opening statement

5pm Discussion

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 6 HOURS MAKES! SATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA AND
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS POSSIBLY STARTED
A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE. THE EYE HAS BECOME BECOME DEFINED IN BOTH
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE PRESSURE IS NOW 955 MB...DOWN
ALMOST 10 MB IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BEGINNING
TO CATCH UP WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS AS INDICATED BY A 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 101 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 91 KT SURFACE WIND
...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.


G. J.
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:30 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Is it me, or has Dennis stalled???

Dougyd
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:30 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

I think it may be caused by the late afternoon shadows.

Just a thought


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:33 PM
Eye

the eye is becoming more rounded and clearing out some.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:35 PM
Re: Eye

the pressure is down to 947mb!!

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:36 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

susieq, there's nothing really to indicate that, whether on satellite or radar. Recon pressure is now down to 947mb, further indicating strengthening.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:38 PM
Re: Eye

Hey guys, not had chance to post since yesterday so heres my take on Dennis today:

I did say yesterday that the crossing over Cuba would weaken Dennis, and indeed it did. However, he was able to maintain a decent eye even though the overall structure was disrupted. This has given him a kick start into restrengthening, which he evidently is doing in earnest. Radar and satellite imagery show the eye is well defined, and he is showing signs of strengthening rapidly now. I think he will get upto 130mph, if not a little higher, prior to landfall tomorrow. I still think we could be lookng at a Alabama landfall, but will suggest a landfall somewhere between Mobile, AL, and Pensacola, FL, as a 130mph Hurricane. If the centre tracks up Mobile Bay, or just to the west, then there will be some seriously major problems with flooding, let alone from the wind. With the area still in recovery from last year, it seems they are gonna take a hammering. My thoughts are with all of you in the path of this one - i think he is gonna be worse than many of us thought earlier today.

Keep safe


KimmieL
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:38 PM
Re: Eye

Where can u go to check out buoy's? Are there any near the eye?

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:39 PM
Re: Eye

Dennis has come together since leaving Cuba, but that was to be expected. Still looks like a NW heading at a decent pace. The North turn will come gradually as the storm feels its way around the ridge. There will be some wobbles that look like a straight north or straight west heading, but until a trend of more north than west starts I would still call it NW.

superfly
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:40 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

There is no way this is still a cat 2 with that pressure. It has to be a high cat 3 right now borderline cat 4.

Lysis
(User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:40 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Most definitely a major hurricane once again.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:40 PM
Re: Eye

Quote:

Where can u go to check out buoy's? Are there any near the eye?




Here's a list of the FL buoys. Click the link at the top for buoys nearest the storm.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:41 PM
Re: Eye

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml

Too late I guess!


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:41 PM
Re: Eye

Quote:

Where can u go to check out buoy's? Are there any near the eye?




http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/


yecatsjg
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:41 PM
Bradenton

Winds are picking up here in Bradenton, more sustained and higher gusts.....three houses down 2 guys are on a roof nailing down shingles as they fly up. (it's an old roof).

Stacey


B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:42 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Some of the moored bouys out in tthe gulf coming in with some great data last few hours...Weatherchef

KimmieL
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:45 PM
Re: Eye

To all who responded ............"Thanks for the info on the buoy's"!

Kimmie


TDW
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:46 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Local TV weatherman said winds are now 115 MPH in recent NHC update.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:48 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

it is dennis is back to a major. at 115mph

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:49 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

000
WTNT64 KNHC 092140
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
440 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 947 MB.
DENNIS HAS REGAINED DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...CATEGORY 3
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 115 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE THIS
EVENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:49 PM
Dennis 115mph

duplicate post removed

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:51 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Quote:

damejune2, there was just the one person there who continually tried to push the storm into S. Florida. Others may have posted questions asking if it were possible, but it was just the one poster with those comments. You are making a broad assumption about everyone here with your remarks, one that I feel is unearned. I apologize if my post came across as blunt, but I felt it necessary to defend the integrity of this website, as it is (IMO) the best such site on the Internet. The community here is relatively small, but most everyone either knows their stuff or wants to learn more about these things...you don't find that much of anywhere else.





Clark - I am sorry and i need to learn, as a new poster, to sort through the BS. My apologies to you and to all.


Lysis
(User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:53 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

No problem.

bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:54 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Does this thing have a chance to go back up to CAT 4?

Lysis
(User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:57 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing


Does this thing have a chance to go back up to CAT 4?

At this rate, Dennis certainly has business with being atleast a minimal cat IV.


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:58 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Yes, this thing defintely has the chance to get to Cat 4!

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:59 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Good move. Now lets move on........Weatherchef

DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:59 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

I too understand Dame, I was in the eye of two hurricanes last year so needless to say I get a little nervous and anxious but I just try to look over the over dramatic replies and focus on what is real

bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 05:59 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

My guess is 135-145 at landfall......what do you guys think?

pam
(Registered User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:01 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

I am new to this forum. Living in Destin Fl right now , and getting a little nervous after the past few updates. We decided to stay. Hope we are doing the right thing.

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:02 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Does anyone have any links to sites where they have the models; UKMET, NOGAPS, Canadian Models, etc...??? If you do, can you post them? Thanks!

G. J.
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:03 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Quote:

yes it is really deepening. still not to the rapid or explosive deepening yet. it is just below (1.66 mb/hr for 10hrs) rapid deepening (1.75 mb/hr for 24 hours) still this is significant strengthening.




At 7am pressure was 969. At 5:30pm it was 947 = 2.095mb/hr for 10.5hrs. Would this be considered rapid or explosive strengthening yet?


G. J.
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:06 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Quote:

Does anyone have any links to sites where they have the models; UKMET, NOGAPS, Canadian Models, etc...??? If you do, can you post them? Thanks!




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Puig
(Registered User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:08 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Pensacola looks like your going to be under the gun again. Im sure after Ivan everyones learned their lesson as Dennis looks like one formidable hurricane. Use your time today wisely. Been through Hurricane Andrew and after that I look at these storms in a different manner. Also, my guess is this storm will be coming on shore sooner than the expected. Maybe even reaching Cat 4 status!

Batten down the hatches!


bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:08 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Could anyone put a link up for the latest recon info?? Thanks

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:08 PM
Deepening Questions

These are the parameters from the NHC
Explosive Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours

Rapid Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.

here is the link
hope this helps


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:09 PM
Recon Link

Recon link

stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:09 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Pam....I hope you guys are battening down the hatches. It is certainly too late to leave now I would think. After this thing passes be sure to post and let us know how you faired.

That goes for anyone in the effected areas!


Lysis
(User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:09 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

Eye clearly visible in the latest infrared
This is absolutely incredible:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:10 PM
Re: Recon Link

Thanks

dearolecleo
(Registered User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:10 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Watching Tampa Radar and looks like ole Dennis has stalled in the last 3 frames. Anybody else see that?

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:11 PM
Deepening

a little faster drop in two hours or maybe some more that would be considered explosive deepening

AndyG
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:11 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Hasn't moved much for a little while now.

G. J.
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:11 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Thanks for setting me straight Hurricane_Run :thumbup:

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:14 PM
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf

not only is the eye visible the high clouds have completly surrounded it

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:15 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

I'm gonna sit in the chatroom tonight, so it's open for Dennis. I'll be slow to respond since I'm doing other things on the site, but I'll be there.

Link on the left...


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:15 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

no problem

HR


pam
(Registered User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:15 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

I will let you all know as soon as I get power (i'm sure we will lose it for a while)
I am in an area where I wont get any storm surge unless it is a Cat 5. And have been through Ivan, Opal, and Eloise (going way back). I have been very lucky each time to have very little damage.


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:15 PM
Re: Deepening

How about "Deepening really fast"? Sorry, a little weather humor to lighten the mood. Thanks for the clarifications.

Safe to say that Dennis has made a strong comeback and just passed right over the NHCs forecast point. The NHC appears to have a good handle on Dennis.


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:18 PM
Re: Deepening

lol, yep they are pretty much on the ball with dennis but hey they're payed to be

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:20 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Quote:

Hasn't moved much for a little while now.




It certainly does appear that he isn't moving as fast as he was... and he might even be showing a slight northward movement(?)

Allison


Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:20 PM
Re: Deepening

several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have also been issued for as far east as the coast.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:21 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Watching the vis loop and Tampa Bay radar, it looks like the westward wobble has ended and the NW movement is resuming. Also, in the WV loops, there is a large, deep layer of moisture following Dennis toward Florida. Looks like several days of above normal rain coming on already saturated ground. More flooding of rivers and streams looks likely.

Magic Hat
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:24 PM
Re: Deepening

Just got an update from Sis in Lucedale, MS (George County). First good feeder band just went thru and the trees were doing the "hoochie koo". That's more than Ivan did. Our girls are in brick houses (safer?) and their campers are in the open. We couldn't get home. Just picked up a load in PA going to Houston, TX. I'm routing us across I-40 and thru Dallas. Driving a big rig in wind is like having a sailboat you can't trim or tack!
God be with you all.


Jeffmidtown
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:25 PM
Re: Deepening

Just got off the phone with a friend of mine whom I take back and forth from the airport here in Atlanta and he lives in Mobile, and he's debating on whether he's gonna ride it out or head up I-65(I believe).

I tell you what, with the latest recon reports coming in I'm really getting concerned for those in the Mobile/Pensacola area and anyone who is in the cone right now.

I think it would be a good idea if before we all went to bed this evening to say a prayer for those in the path of Dennis for their safety.

Also, saw on TWC that hotel rooms as far north as Montgomery are full up and it may not be much better in Georgia from Macon south.


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:28 PM
Re: Deepening

to the west of dennis there looks to be a outflow boundary

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:29 PM
New Thread

There is a new thread up

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:30 PM
Re: Conch Republic Bashing

Quote:

Quote:

Does anyone have any links to sites where they have the models; UKMET, NOGAPS, Canadian Models, etc...??? If you do, can you post them? Thanks!




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/





Thanks!!


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:30 PM
Re: Deepening

That last frame of the IR (or Vis, if you prefer) is darn impressive....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg


Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:30 PM
Re: Deepening

Anyone have a nice Water VaporLoop for that region?

Thanks


damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:31 PM
Re: Deepening

Quote:

to the west of dennis there looks to be a outflow boundary




Boundry? Can you explain? Sorry, but i know nothing about this stuff.


WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:34 PM
Re: Deepening

I rarely call out the NHC, and I am not really, it's just that they seem to be ignoring all of the models except for the A98E. All of the other models have shifted to between Pascagoula and Mobile. Will the NHC come around, or take their chances with their forecast?

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:37 PM
Re: Deepening

there is a new thread up but if you take a look at the pic you will see to the west some coulds that are rope like. This is an outflow boundary. this could be a inhibiting factor. air going away from the storm is trapped so it chokes itself

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:40 PM
Re: Deepening

NLU, The models have changed back and forth every few hours, the nHC has been consistent, and correct...I will go with them

jr928
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:48 PM
Re: Deepening

I would abandon the nhc if I lived in pascagoula and bail now. It's not going back east and the models are showing it , let alone water vapor shows nothing in its way to make too large a push if it hits mid 3 levels soon

jr928
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:50 PM
Re: Deepening

there is actually a band pushing toward mid mississipi right now. It is plowing straight northwest with no resistance from any trough or low. trouble for biloxi- nhc will come around

EMS
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 09 2005 06:58 PM
Attachment
NW Movement

Here's a rough unscientific chart I put together showing the movement of Dennis during each 6 hour interval since July 5th. As you can see, historical movement over the last 2.5 days has been pretty much NW (a heading of 315 degrees). You will notice however that in 2 of last 3 intervals (i.e. today), movement was actually at a heading slightly greater than 315 degrees, perhaps signaling that gradual N/NW turn folks have been forecasting.

This might be hard to read, so I've attached it in a .txt format as well. Hope this is helpful.

TIME/DATE LAT LONG LAT CHG LNG CHG HEADING
11p 7/4 12.5 63.1 -- -- --
5a 7/5 12.6 64.4 0.1 1.3 274.4
11a 7/5 13.3 66.6 0.7 2.2 287.7
5p 7/5 14.2 68.3 0.9 1.7 297.9
11p 7/5 14.6 69.2 0.4 0.9 294.0
5a 7/5 15.1 70.3 0.5 1.1 294.4
11a 7/6 15.4 71.5 0.3 1.2 284.0
5p 7/6 16 72.5 0.6 1 301.0
11p 7/6 16.5 73.4 0.5 0.9 299.1
5a 7/7 17 74.6 0.5 1.2 292.6
11a 7/7 18 75.6 1 1 315.0
5p 7/7 19 76.6 1 1 315.0
11p 7/7 19.9 77.6 0.9 1 312.0
5a 7/8 20.7 79.1 0.8 1.5 298.1
11a 7/8 21.4 79.9 0.7 0.8 311.2
5p 7/8 22.6 81.1 1.2 1.2 315.0
11p 7/8 23 82.1 0.4 1 291.8
5a 7/9 23.9 82.9 0.9 0.8 318.4
11a 7/9 24.7 83.8 0.8 0.9 311.6
5p 7/9 25.7 84.6 1 0.8 321.3


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 09 2005 07:10 PM
Re: Deepening

why? MS is in the cone just like Fort Myers was with Charlie. Don't follow the line, watch the cone. learn to read a chart correctly.


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