MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 06:27 PM
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Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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8:45pm -- Dennis has taken a turn to the north over the past couple of hours, something that will have to be monitored to see if it lasts. See Thomas Giella's and Clark Evans' latest blog entries below for reasoning as to why the recent deepening of the storm may be directly related to this recent turn.
The above image is from the NASA MODIS Gallery. They are updated infrequently, but have very very high resolution images. Desktop Wallpaper worthy quality.
The new forecast calls for a Category 4 landfalling system. The only thing that could perhaps weaken it is slightly cooler water over the Gulf near the coast, assuming it stays over the water long enough there. Excessive storm surge is possible, upwards of 10-20ft in some locations, if the forecast verifies.
Jim Williams is doing an audio show tonight over at Hurricane City; if you have RealPlayer, you can listen in with this link.
It is deepening fairly rapidly, and there is nothing in the short term to keep it from doing so a bit more. Track is still towards Pensacola tomorrow evening, but all of the warning area needs to prepare for a potentially Category 4 storm making landfall.
Chat is open tonight, click here or on the link to the left to get there.
Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.
You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down.
Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here.
Hopefully this will only last a short time.
Event Related Links
Emergency Management Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management Monroe County/Florida Keys, Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL, Walton County, FL, Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) http://www.msema.org/index.htm Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar Miami, FL Long Range Radar Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar Mobile, AL Long Range Radar Dennis MODIS Ultra High Resolution Dennis Satellite Images Google Map Plot of dennis along with Ivan High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE Animated Model Plot of Dennis Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis Quikskat Image of Dennis
Color Sat of Dennis Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays (Animated) RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis
98L/Area in Central Atlantic Animated Model Plot of 98L
Webcams, Video, Audio WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL will be streaming video over hte internet from 5:30-6:30 PM tonight and then from 10PM until the storm is over. This is flhurricane met blogger Jason Kelley's TV Station.
Mark Sudduth's at coastal Alabama again ready to move east or west, he has a mobile observation tower he'll be leaving along the coast when Dennis arrives - Hurricane Trak/Mark Suddth Car & Tower Cam
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock Suncam.tv's collection of Dennis cam's and Mobile (not the city) cams - Suncam.tv's Moble Car Cam Hurricane City and Jim Williams do audio shows nightly around 8PM Weathervine.com Storm Chasing Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam - Mobile Bay webcam recording will being the AM of the 10th here Key West Webcams New Orleans webcams WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola i streaming live coverage WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile Alabama - Streaming Video 10PM Pensacola Beach Webcam Beachview webcams from near destin/PCB
Police Scanner Streams Mobile Police - Mobile, AL
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations): Tampa, Mobile Bay, New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee. Melbourne
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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they should be prepared already. but if not they bettere get to work right away
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AndyG
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 06:39 PM
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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Watching both Key West long range and Tampa long range, it looks like Dennis is moving almost due N now.
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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it does maybe it is just a jog
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NewWatcher
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 06:41 PM
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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Hard for me to tell for sure, but man it really looks impressive on the last few sat. images
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ShanaTX
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 06:41 PM
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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Dennis sure reorganized in a hurry! I hope everyone in the path is prepared and done their best to be safe.
Maybe the older topic should be locked now? It would be less confusing during the fast and furious postings... just a suggestion
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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it sure does it is going to be really strong
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javlin
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 06:44 PM
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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NLU I have been asking myself the same question all day.The models are continuing to go W some as far as NO.The Civil Defense of Harrison County has yet to issue any and I mean any kind of statement yet today.While the two counties one to E and one to W have.They say they are waiting till 7:00PM this evening to make any hard decisions(Casino's?).While people hear that the Fl Panhandle and that to the E is the main target.
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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Found this on Weatherunderground, from their Director of Meteorology Dr. Jeff Masters. I do not want to be an alarmist, but given the nature of the situation, I wanted to post this for our Alabama/Panhandle posters....
I urge all residents of the Gulf Coast in Alabama and the Florida Panhandle who were undecided about whether to evacuate to get out now!
Dennis continues to break the rules for what is usual for a hurricane. In my previous blog entry, I wrote that it is very unusual for a major hurricane to regain its former intensity after a long crossing over land. However, Dennis is poised to do just that.
Aircraft recon just measured a central pressure of 947 mb at 5:15pm, an 11 mb drop in 90 minutes--a rarely observed rate of intensification. The eyewall shrank from 15 miles in diameter to 12 miles, and the satellite presentation confirms that the storm is undergoing explosive deepening. Dennis will surely be a strong Category 4 storm in about 6 hours, when the winds have time to catch up to the pressure falls, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Satellite imagery shows an outer wind maximum is probably forming, meaning Dennis will enter another eyewall replacement cycle tonight after this phase of explosive deepening is over.
The current track of the storm is more WNW than NW, and is likely a temporary wobble similar to two others this storm has already done. I expect Dennis will shortly resume its previous northwest track. The most recent wobble occurred as the storm was doing its previous rapid intensification cycle just before it hit Cuba. The current wobble is enough to probably spare Panama City the worst of the hurricane, but increases the danger to Mobile. A direct hit by Dennis just west of Mobile could easily challenge Hurricane Andrew as the most expensive hurricane in history. Dennis's storm surge of 15-20 feet would push into Mobile Bay and cause tens of billions in destruction. Even if Dennis hits further east near Pensacola, as I still expect, the damage will surpass Ivan's $13 billion and Charley's $14 billion to make Dennis the second costliest hurricane on record.
Dr. Jeff Masters
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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Dr. Masters will be on NHCWX radio tonight I think at 9 pmEDT live
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not good
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in the words of the homestar runner... oh cwap. i've been gone six hours, and the pressure has dropped 20 mb. i wasn't sure it would spin back up this fast. maybe it'll go through an erc or shelf waters will mitigate whatever strength it gets to before this time tomorrow.. but this is going to be a heck of a blow. HF 2349z09july
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 06:51 PM
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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Dennis is over the Gulf Loop Current which is very warm. SSTs are lower ahead of the storm as it approaches the NE Gulf coast. I'm expecting Dennis will be a strong Cat 3 or minimal Cat 4 as it makes landfall in the FL panhandle or Alabama (Mobile Bay).
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 06:56 PM
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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OK...can anybody verify this...the escambia county emergency new conference on TV in pcola just stated that the NHC has informed them that DEnnis is now a Cat 4....
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Chat
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is anyone going to the storm chat link is on the left
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BillD
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(User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 06:57 PM
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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The last few visible images are incredible, I know that the shadows in the evening enhance the effect, but just check out any visible from about 22:00Z on... There is no doubt this is a major hurricane.
As far as the wobbles, I've been watching the Tampa radar, I saw the West wobble, and the North wobble, but now it looks like NW again. We need to wait overnight I think to see if the NNW track works out. But so far the NHC has been right on track.
Bill
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7 pm
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from the 7 pm Repeating the 7 PM EDT position...26.1 N... 84.9 W. Movement toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 947 mb. recon flight enroute to the storm
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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The NHC has had a good grip on Dennis thus far and they do have synoptic reasoning, along with climatology and experience to back their track.
Remember though, the NHC harps on the public all the time about the cone and not fixating on the line. Both MS and Alabama are well within the cone and should be very vigilant and doing whatever necessary to protect life and property.
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NW Movement
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Here's a rough unscientific chart I put together showing the movement of Dennis during each 6 hour interval since July 5th. As you can see, historical movement over the last 2.5 days has been pretty much NW (a heading of 315 degrees). You will notice however that in 2 of last 3 intervals (i.e. today), movement was actually at a heading slightly greater than 315 degrees, perhaps signaling that gradual N/NW turn folks have been forecasting.
This might be hard to read, so I've attached it in a .txt format as well. Hope this is helpful.
TIME/DATE LAT LONG LAT CHG LNG CHG HEADING 11p 7/4 12.5 63.1 -- -- -- 5a 7/5 12.6 64.4 0.1 1.3 274.4 11a 7/5 13.3 66.6 0.7 2.2 287.7 5p 7/5 14.2 68.3 0.9 1.7 297.9 11p 7/5 14.6 69.2 0.4 0.9 294.0 5a 7/5 15.1 70.3 0.5 1.1 294.4 11a 7/6 15.4 71.5 0.3 1.2 284.0 5p 7/6 16 72.5 0.6 1 301.0 11p 7/6 16.5 73.4 0.5 0.9 299.1 5a 7/7 17 74.6 0.5 1.2 292.6 11a 7/7 18 75.6 1 1 315.0 5p 7/7 19 76.6 1 1 315.0 11p 7/7 19.9 77.6 0.9 1 312.0 5a 7/8 20.7 79.1 0.8 1.5 298.1 11a 7/8 21.4 79.9 0.7 0.8 311.2 5p 7/8 22.6 81.1 1.2 1.2 315.0 11p 7/8 23 82.1 0.4 1 291.8 5a 7/9 23.9 82.9 0.9 0.8 318.4 11a 7/9 24.7 83.8 0.8 0.9 311.6 5p 7/9 25.7 84.6 1 0.8 321.3
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BillD
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(User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:05 PM
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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This is from the 7:00 PM advisory. They are only saying it MIGHT become a cat 4.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
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not good
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superfly
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:07 PM
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Re: NW Movement
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Got bored so decided to hit the coordinates up on GoogleEarth. Image here.
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wxman007
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:13 PM
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Special NHC Advisory...
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New Special NHC Advisory calling for a Cat 4 at landfall...
I just did a live interview with Max Mayfield...they are VERY concerned with the rapid deepining that is ongoing...his words, "If you live with 50 miles of the coast from Panama City west, get out".
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drcrazibob
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:14 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Aside from the Technical aspects of Hurricane Dennis, I want to wish everyone up in the panhandle and those of you that have friends and family wherever Dennis lands, all the best and to be as safe as possible. I know we're all doing our best to see where this hurricane is going and how big it's getting, but regardless of that, my prayers are with ya'all. I spent 2 hurricanes in Deltona, Fl last year with my sister and brother-in-law and she was 30 weeks pregnant! What a crazy scary time. So Godspeed to everyone, and be safe!
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NewWatcher
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:14 PM
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Re: NW Movement
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does anyone have the website that was posted, i think last night, with the pics of topography, they were really nice, and i cant find the link grrrr
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WeatherNLU
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:17 PM
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Re: NW Movement
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.2N and .0W in the last hour.........maybe this is FINALLY the turn.
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Kevin
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:22 PM
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Re: NW Movement
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Been away from the computer this afternoon...and look what happens. With each new image that comes onto the visible floater loop, you can see the eye contracting. A sign of intensification. Another sign of a rapidly deepen storm: the stadium look that the eyewall has been taking on over the past couple of hours or so.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:27 PM
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Re: NW Movement
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Classic Discussion pair with the 5PM and special 7PM. I think he NHC was taken off guard by this... I know I am.
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005
WHAT A DIFFERENCE 6 HOURS MAKES! SATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS POSSIBLY STARTED A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE. THE EYE HAS BECOME BECOME DEFINED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY..
Then at 7PM.. HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005
WHAT A DIFFERENCE 2 HOURS MAKES! AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS DROPPED 11 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. .
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Steve777
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(Registered User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:30 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Hello fellow hurricane hunters. I believe this is only the 3rd post ever. I live in St Cloud Fl. I work for Orlando utilities and have been tuned into this site for 8 years now. Lots of times I've used it to just enjoy learning and i do enjoy reading the posts and laughing at the tempermental posts and I've even felt like defending the idiots sometimes cause we all shouldn't take everything so personal and serious.well, last year we got hit with charley and francis and jeanne and i lost shingles, then bedroom ceiling and garage ceiling and porch ceiling and all pool room screens and pool frame damage ect..seems like a nightmare year and i'm really glad storm is west of us cause i've just recieved 1 and half inches of rain in less than hour here and strong gusts. Just wanted to say hi to whoever and thanks for this site always enjoyed it. Stay Kewl.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Have not posted this year myself. I am in Poinciana, kinda gusty, lotsa rain. Had lots of damage last year, hopeing for NONE this...
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:32 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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This is not good. That's about all I can say. Dennis has blown past expectations, climatology, and everything else yet another time. It's well on its way towards being a category 4 storm.
The only saving grace is a pool of colder waters just south of Pensacola. If the storm is moving slow enough, it could have an impact on the storm's intensity just before landfall. A recent wobble north may be the signal of the long-awaited turn moreso towards the north. The system is due south of St. George Island, Florida right now; a north-northwest movement to landfall pretty much takes it to the area Max Mayfield highlighted in his interview with JK.
Stay tuned...this thing's on a tear right now.
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Lysis
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(User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:40 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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So Clark... this may be the most intense July hurricane in recorded history *twice* Absolutely incredible.
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Allison
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:40 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Quote:
The only saving grace is a pool of colder waters just south of Pensacola. If the storm is moving slow enough, it could have an impact on the storm's intensity just before landfall.
Any opinion on how slow he'd have to be going to be weakend by the cooler SST's (a' la Lili)?
Allison
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:44 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Allison -- no idea. If it's moving 15-20mph, it'll see little impact (I believe). If it's moving 5-10mph, it'll see a greater impact. Can't pin down a number, though.
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bn765
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:46 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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any guesses on the wind speed at the 8 advisory?
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Steve H1
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:48 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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he actually running almost due north now. When you observe the eye, be sure to take into account the sun angle and the dense overcast that intermittently covers the east side of the eye. I'd say he's nearing 350 - 355 degrees. On the other question, I don't think he's going to slow down much. The cooler water you're talking about still is above 27c.
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:48 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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There won't be another advisory until 9p ET/8p CT, but assuming current trends have continued, it should be increased by 5-15mph.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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I was wondering about the warmer tops (blue) that seam to be spinning in to the storm from the southeast side. Could this help slow this rapid intensification or is this just an indication of a tightening core?
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Clark, I hate to even mention it, but could we be looking at a possible Camille scenario? Fast moving, fast developing storm, in the central gulf? Or am I just being overly concerned.
Also, I appreciate the time and expertise you devote to this site. I know your are extraordinarily busy right now.
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:54 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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stormchazer -- probably just a sign of the differentiation between the well-defined core of the storm and an outer convective band and not a sign of dry air entrainment. I could be wrong, but I don't believe that there is dry air becoming entrained into the storm.
Big Red Machine -- probably not, as there is still likely an eyewall replacement cycle ahead (and shallower, cooler waters) to slow/halt intensification, but we don't know how strong it is going to get before then. Camille was a once-in-a-lifetime scenario and is the furthest north category 5 hurricane in Atlantic basin recorded history; I think Dennis is not likely to approach those levels. This may be a similar scenario to Opal in 1995, but I'm not willing to call for such drastic weakening right before landfall.
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Frank P
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:58 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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long range radar loop out of tampa indicates that Dennis looks to be on a pretty good NNW track... wobbling between NW and N... my opinion only...
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Agreed! My IR sat looks to be a N mvt. and longer that a wobble.
JK just now metioned the north motion being possible so it may be so.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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that isjust what i was thinking... ?this is a long wobble?
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Frank P
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:04 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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I just looked at the water vapor loop... I agree with you guys, looks like a definite move north... lets see if it continues...
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:06 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Last frame of the radar loop shows a NW movement again.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:07 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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It looks like Dennis is taking steps.. Ivan did this..but from the other direction..looks like he is still pretty close to the NHC track
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BillD
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(User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:07 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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The 8:00 PM Position is 26.2 N 85.0 W, 7:00 PM was 26.1 N 84.9 W.
Update: I thought I should include the actual statement, since the NHC is using the same tool we are (radar) to make this determination!
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND TAMPA INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Bill
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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I agree with the north movement was just watching the local tampa doppler radar. http://www.baynews9.com/StateDoppler.html
now looks like back to nw movement
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WeatherNLU
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:11 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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It's defintely moving more north, but it cannot be considered more than a wobble at this point. When it moved west for 9 hours over Cuba it was a wobble and everyone disputed the westward movement. Now it moves north for 30 minutes and it's a definitive movement??
It's surely trending more north, but will it hold......that's the question.
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Allison
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:11 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Quote:
stormchazer -- probably just a sign of the differentiation between the well-defined core of the storm and an outer convective band and not a sign of dry air entrainment. I could be wrong, but I don't believe that there is dry air becoming entrained into the storm.
The last few frames of the WV loop shows dry air building in the Bay of Campeche. But you're right, it doesn't appear to be affecting Dennis at this time.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Allison
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G. J.
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:12 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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What is crazy to me, is that this monster is just SW of Tampa. I know it's not going to come my way, but damn if it did it would absolutely cause pandamonium on a scale never seen before. It's soo close to me right now, and no harm (yet), but it will be reaking havok on someone far away in 24 hours. Crazy.
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Frank P
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:14 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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If he is wobbling between N and NW then it averages out to be NNW, which is basically what the NHC has forecasted.... we are looking at this system very hard tonight... my evacuation plan will be to leave early in the am before 5:00 am and ride out the storm at the MS Power Plant, where my wife works... but only if it deviates any at all from the NHC forecast track to the west... there will be no sleep tonight I'm pretty sure... worse case scenario would be for Dennis to hit to our west, which would probably put a surge of 15-18 feet along the MS Coast... I'm 20 feet above sea level on the beach... not a very pleasent thought.... my prayers and thoughts go out to the poor unfortunate people of the Panhandle and the Al coast... tomorrow will be an historic weather event
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Incredible transformation last few hours http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...&duration=0
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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agreed G.J.
it almost seems surreal.
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Pressure Drop
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Minimum Pressure: 942 Millibars (27.816 Inches) pressure down i think this will qualify as expolsive deepening
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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I know a few here who won't sleep much
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NewWatcher
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:16 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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hurricane hunters say pressure has dropped another 5mb
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Frank P
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:18 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Storm, you are definitely in harms way Buddy...
good luck
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Littlebit
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:20 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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I agree also G.J. I'm in Plant City and it's very scary to see this monster so close on the radar. We've had some pretty good feeder bands through here with some major wind gusts. A few branches down, but that's it so far. Can't wait until it gets past us. My thoughts and prayers go out to all in Dennis' path. Stay safe everyone!
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sprghill
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:22 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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is there anyway this could make a hard right and go for tampa
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Could if conditions were right. Conditions are not right! It could pass a little closer then forecast but is going North so relax....but be attentive!
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:26 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Quote:
is there anyway this could make a hard right and go for tampa
Highly doubtful at this time.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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well put
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Prospero
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:27 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Having some of our more respectable winds right now in Sun City Center. Some tree debris in yards.
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WeatherNLU
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:27 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Quote:
is there anyway this could make a hard right and go for tampa
Of course there is always a chance, but the odds of that happening now are EXTREMELY low.
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Re: Pressure Drop
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Almost back to 938, and back to 6.0 on Dvorak, incredible recovery!!!! Runing through part of the GOM w/ 90 deg temps, and this thing is breathing heavy!!!!
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:29 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Quote:
Having some of our more respectable winds right now in Sun City Center. Some tree debris in yards.
Last obs from the St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (NWS station) had winds of 29 MPH sustained with gusts to 43 MPH (7:53 PM)
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Re: Pressure Drop
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look on the ir how the trough is ventlating it up to the north
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Hurricanes are to be respected in terms of what they have done in the past. The unthinkable should not be ignored but the probable should be the thing focused on. In otherwords: Jeanne, Lenny, and Gordon are a few who did things that most people did not think of, but it is probable that this hurricane will do What the NHC says it will do within a 100 miles east or west.
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Prospero
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:31 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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It's a storm alright.
I love it as long as it does no damage, or anyone loses power.
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KimmieL
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:32 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Just saw where the eye is only 10 miles wide.....amazing!
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:33 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Latest Tampa Bay radar loop seems to be confirming a more NNW movement.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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GOOD LUCK EVERYONE IMPACTED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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firestar_1
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:35 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Just looking at the Dvorak IR and it looks like there are two eye walls....does anyone know if it has started an eye wall replacement cycle yet?
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jr928
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:36 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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I remain amazed that noone is talking about the trough that was supposed to steer it north. if the trough ain't there, then the north ain't happening, like several models have said, ms bound
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bn765
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:38 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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CNN just had an update and the met said that it would make landfall at 140mph.....take that for it whats its worth
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:39 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Quote:
I remain amazed that noone is talking about the trough that was supposed to steer it north. if the trough ain't there, then the north ain't happening, like several models have said, ms bound
Dennis is overpowering the trough. Prevailing winds over the gulf remain from the SW. I see little reason to believe that the NHC forecast track will not verify (give or take 50 miles).
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:40 PM
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Reasoning behind more northerly movement
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Reasoning behind the northward motion and why it may not be a temporary wobble have been posted to the met. blogs. It has to do with the upper-level winds and the recent rapid intensification of the storm -- it is now feeling a different subset of upper-level winds since it is a deeper storm, winds which are moreso aiming towards the north than the northwest.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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I think the steering involved a little more then the "trough". We are all watching and waiting.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Was watching CNN at 830pm and the radar they were using, it looked like Dennis was making a more Northerly turn, even the weather person stated that as well...
I may not be reading it correctly, but it is interesting....
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mud1967
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:42 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Has the track been updated in the past 2 hours?
When will the other models info come in? I'm talking about when you go to the spagetti model page?
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:42 PM
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Re: Reasoning behind more northerly movement
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Quote:
Reasoning behind the northward motion and why it may not be a temporary wobble have been posted to the met. blogs. It has to do with the upper-level winds and the recent rapid intensification of the storm -- it is now feeling a different subset of upper-level winds since it is a deeper storm, winds which are moreso aiming towards the north than the northwest.
Agreed.
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Re: Reasoning behind more northerly movement
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co-signed (ditto)
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mud1967
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:44 PM
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Re: Reasoning behind more northerly movement
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Does that mean it will be moving more right ( even just a little ) than expected earier?
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bn765
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:44 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Yea saw the same thing on CNN
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StormSurfer
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:46 PM
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Re: Reasoning behind more northerly movement
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I hate to say it but it looks like he's pissed and ain't going to let no one stop him from doing what he wants. Good luck to all up North. I will say a prayer for you guys shortly. After seeing how scary Dennis was last year and basically holding on to my family tight in a small room I know what the feeling is like. STAY SAFE Please!
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HumanCookie
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:48 PM
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Re: Reasoning behind more northerly movement
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Quote:
I hate to say it but it looks like he's pissed and ain't going to let no one stop him from doing what he wants. Good luck to all up North. I will say a prayer for you guys shortly. After seeing how scary Dennis was last year and basically holding on to my family tight in a small room I know what the feeling is like. STAY SAFE Please!
You mean IVAN last year
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|
Clouds topping out
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Look at the satellite loop, and rock it back and forth. It almost looks like most of the clouds are topping out really high (almost popping like popcorn). even the feeder bands over the florida peninsula and as far as the Atlantic. This sucker looks to be sucking in everything it can.
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Ron Basso
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:48 PM
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Re: Reasoning behind more northerly movement
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Quote:
Reasoning behind the northward motion and why it may not be a temporary wobble have been posted to the met. blogs. It has to do with the upper-level winds and the recent rapid intensification of the storm -- it is now feeling a different subset of upper-level winds since it is a deeper storm, winds which are moreso aiming towards the north than the northwest.
Kudos to you Clark! I think this verifies the northward track you and Ed Dunham have been talking about. I was knocked off the net earlier by a squall but thankfully it's restored. Indeed, I noticed the definite northward motion the last hour or so. I would expect due to the rapid deepening it would remain on this track for a while. In your mind, is there any chance of a N-NE movement or will it be north and then perhaps NW as Dennis approaches the coast?
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bn765
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:49 PM
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Re: Clouds topping out
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Whens the new advisory coming out?
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:49 PM
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Re: Reasoning behind more northerly movement
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Quote:
Does that mean it will be moving more right ( even just a little ) than expected earier?
Quite possible. Keep an eye on it.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:50 PM
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Re: Clouds topping out
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Quote:
Whens the new advisory coming out?
9 PM ET.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Hi all, anyone in Ala on here, my son is on Ala (Enterprise) w/ Grandmother and have tried calling no answer, they had briefly mentioned driving to East Ga today, just curious what the traffic has been up there going East? Hopefully they did not wait around. Thanks in advance for the response.
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NewWatcher
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:52 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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winds 125 mph
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9pm
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Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph...with higher gusts. This makes Dennis a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is expected...and Dennis could become a category 4 hurricane before landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.
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Allison
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:53 PM
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Re: Clouds topping out
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Quote:
Whens the new advisory coming out?
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN
Any minute now...
Allison
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Shan
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:54 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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I'm in southern Mobile County so I'm not sure what the Enterprise area is like. I do know the news is reporting a steady flow of traffic north.
Just heard winds are up to 125mph.
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Lysis
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(User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:54 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Dennis's central pressure is around 942 mb and still dropping... he is on the threshold of become a category 4. Winds up to 125 mph. To be blunt, this is not good.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200504.public.html
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Bamagal
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(Registered User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 08:57 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Hi Taz- traffic going east into Ga was very thin today about lunch . We live about .2 mile off hwy 431 in Eufaula and while trip across bridge to Ga wasn't rough- getting into town northbound on 431 was a nightmare. Hopefully they made it just fine and you will hear from them shortly.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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I am also in the Enterprise, AL area...stationed at Ft. Rucker. Just curious what kind of effects would we feel from this storm 70 miles inland?
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:01 PM
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Re: Reasoning behind more northerly movement
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I don't see any large deviation in movement from here on out. No one from Mississippi eastward to Apalachicola is out of the woods yet despite the movement -- this storm has surprised us before. Kudos should go to WeatherNLU (Shawn) for his analysis of the storm yesterday and into today...he nailed the NW movement.
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:02 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Depends on where it comes ashore -- probably tropical storm force winds with heavy rainfall and locally strong wind gusts. Not going to be a pleasant Sunday throughout much of the southeast, I'm afraid.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Quote:
I am also in the Enterprise, AL area...stationed at Ft. Rucker. Just curious what kind of effects would we feel from this storm 70 miles inland?
Forecast valid 11/0600z 32.3n 88.4w...inland Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
Forecast valid 11/1800z 34.2n 89.3w...inland Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
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Frank P
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
|
Sat Jul 09 2005 09:02 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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the last three hours Dennis' trend as been ~.45 degrees to the NORTH and ~.22 degrees WEST... solid NNW motion to me....
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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When Charley came through South Florida, it tore up places with tornados and hurricane force winds that were more than 70 miles inland. It will depend on how far out the hurricane force winds extend by the time it makes the shore. But you can expect driving rains and constant wind.
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KimmieL
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:03 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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2 degrees north and 2 degrees west--still heading NW
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Bamagal
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(Registered User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:04 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Not entirely sure yet- have been watching and wondering all day but looks like i will have to do that for a while longer. I do kow that if landfall is further east than pensacola it would be worse for us but a lot will depend on all the other factors( intensity, direction, etc) .Glad to know someone else from area is on here though- kinda feel like the lone ranger sometimes.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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they're slow on the NHC "Discussion"
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Terra
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:06 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Only discussions at 5s and 11s.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Ya, I have been watching it for the last couple of days. I know they were packing up a lot of the aircraft when I left post yesterday. I know that a few of my friends who are in the naval pilot training program down in Pensacola were evacuated yesterday.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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they did a special discussion at 7PM. thought they might do another.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:09 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Quote:
they're slow on the NHC "Discussion"
The NHC web site is low to update. They're really busy.
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wxman007
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:11 PM
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See you soon...
|
|
Folks, this will likely be my last post for a while...thing are starting to really get tense here in PC, and we are looking more and more under the gun.
If you are a religious person, pray for all the residents of coastal FL, AL, and MS tonght...it looks more and more dangerous with each passing hour. I'll post as soon as I get a chance, but it's almost go-time here.
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NewWatcher
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:13 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Good Luck
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BLTizzle
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:13 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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first post on here but been keeping up on thie site for about 2 years....
The State of Alabama Tourism Association said at 7:00pm CDT that 90% of hotel rooms between Mobile and Birmingham were full. So pass this info along to anyone who might need it
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|
Re: See you soon...
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GOOD LUCK, GOD SPEED, BE CAREFUL!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: See you soon...
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Good luck to all...
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Re: See you soon...
|
|
be safe wxman praying for you and all others under the gun
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:13 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Quote:
Folks, this will likely be my last post for a while...thing are starting to really get tense here in PC, and we are looking more and more under the gun.
If you are a religious person, pray for all the residents of coastal FL, AL, and MS tonght...it looks more and more dangerous with each passing hour. I'll post as soon as I get a chance, but it's almost go-time here.
By all means - bail now! Prayers are with you and everyone else.
|
|
Re: See you soon...
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I saw on the local news here that hotels are 100% full in the Dothan, AL area as well
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firestar_1
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:14 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Thank you for all of your insight...I am looking at the upper level steering currents roight now and it is not looking good for your area...Good Luck!!!
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Dawn
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:15 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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I am and I will pray for you and your family and all in harms way.
Stay safe and get going!
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:16 PM
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Re: See you soon...
|
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Quote:
Quote:
Folks, this will likely be my last post for a while...thing are starting to really get tense here in PC, and we are looking more and more under the gun.
If you are a religious person, pray for all the residents of coastal FL, AL, and MS tonght...it looks more and more dangerous with each passing hour. I'll post as soon as I get a chance, but it's almost go-time here.
By all means - bail now! Prayers are with you and everyone else.
Also, don't go north. Go East toward JAX.
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Bruce
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:17 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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If Dennis keeps going in a NNW directions and makes landfall near Apalachicola what effects will the storm surge have on the indintation of the land mass right under Tallahassee?
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|
Re: See you soon...
|
|
God Bless, Jason.
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wxman007
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:17 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Quote:
Also, don't go north. Go East toward JAX.
I'm not going anywhere...my place is here, on the air...I will ride this thing out in my studios.
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|
Re: See you soon...
|
|
Take care, we'll be praying for everybody.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:19 PM
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Re: See you soon...
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
Also, don't go north. Go East toward JAX.
I'm not going anywhere...my place is here, on the air...I will ride this thing out in my studios.
Got seatbelts? Good luck and I hope all works out safe. You have a long night ahead.
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Steve H1
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:20 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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|
Looks like he's bending back to the NW again!
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Re: See you soon...
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|
Prayers to you and all Jason! Take care!
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NewWatcher
|
(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:21 PM
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Re: See you soon...
|
|
does ur station do live feeds on the internet jason?
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Re: See you soon...
|
|
rookie here. Can someone post a good link of a current radar/satelite for me? Winds picking up here in Flagler County, been pretty quiet and dry most of the day. I feel for everybody in the path of Dennis. Please be careful.
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Lysis
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(User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:23 PM
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Re: See you soon...
|
|
Having gone through something similar to Dennis... I only wish that I could be with you all and physically help. Surviving such a storm and then going through the aftermath will comprise of some of the most physically and emotionally demanding times of your life. Unfortunately, many of you in the panhandle already know this. Stay strong... and I will say a special prayer tonight for all those that will undoubtedly experience one of the most terrifying things of their lives. If you ever need someone to relate to or talk to, just send me a pm. Godspeed, and goodnight.
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nl
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:23 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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|
look guys im really praying for you guys, it really bring tears too my eyes too see it hit our beautiful state. its sad! i know u guys would be praying for us the same so be safe and god's speed. this year isnt over this year tho. i love this site its great. well im 3-1 so far this year i lost this storm. good job nhc.
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nl
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:25 PM
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Re: See you soon...
|
|
squall line coming through here right now alot of rain hard rain
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Re: See you soon...
|
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Here is Jason's weather center link at WJHG...
Jason
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mud1967
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:25 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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I really want to see if the track has moved. Where can I look?
|
Terra
|
(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:25 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Might want to watch the radar now... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/tbw_N0Z_lp.html
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|
Re: See you soon...
|
|
Look at the last frame of this:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
frightening.
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leetdan
|
(Weather Guru)
|
Sat Jul 09 2005 09:27 PM
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Re: See you soon...
|
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Yeah, it's nestled among all those (great) links in the first post.
"Webcams, Video, Audio WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL will be streaming video over hte internet from 5:30-6:30 PM tonight and then from 10PM until the storm is over. This is flhurricane met blogger Jason Kelley's TV Station."
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NewWatcher
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:27 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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yes i had just found it thanks
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Re: See you soon...
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Pam, winds/rain picking up down there? Up here in Palm Coast it's getting pretty windy
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nl
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:28 PM
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Re: See you soon...
|
|
getting hard rain down in new smyrna.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:29 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Quote:
rookie here. Can someone post a good link of a current radar/satelite for me? Winds picking up here in Flagler County, been pretty quiet and dry most of the day. I feel for everybody in the path of Dennis. Please be careful.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.ktbw.shtml You can use the navigation arrows to get to other NWS radars from there.
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NewWatcher
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:30 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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|
yes very much so, i think this is our first rain today, been waiting all day, then was thinking we werent gonna get a thing, quite squally now
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:30 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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|
Quote:
I really want to see if the track has moved. Where can I look?
NHC won't update that until after the 11 PM ET advisory.
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Talassee
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(Registered User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:31 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Hey Mud...I'm in Tally Town too...don't think we're going to see a new storm track from NHC until 11:00. Wanting to go to bed...but feeling apprehensive re: tornadoes, etc. Kicking myself now for not buying an emergency weather radio...at least I could sleep knowing I would get an emergency signal.....
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VolusiaMike
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:31 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Flagler County, check the site in my signature. It will give you current conditions in Ormond Beach
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Checking in from Atlanta...redux
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We had the first big feeder band from Dennis move through Atlanta and we got what we didn't need, very heavy rain...2" of rain in about 25 minutes and we are under a Flash Flood Warning until 11pm here...looking pretty evil still here....
God Speed to everyone in the Gulf and good luck Jason.
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NewWatcher
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:33 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Good to see you again Mike, my husband has the same thing on Holly Hill's website with the weather, you know him, scott G
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Catawba
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(Registered User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:33 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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I'm in northern Putnam County. It's been overcast and breezy all day, and we just got our first rain of the day. Came down in buckets for a few minutes, but seems to have eased off a bit now.
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mud1967
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:34 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Will any of the other models update soon?
I use the link under coordinates on the left of the page but they are all really old and it says that it will update every hour. I know that the images are the same but It has had 53 images on the page for hours. Is it down?
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mud1967
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:37 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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I know what you mean. I can't wait to see what is on the 11pm. Really got nasty a few minutes ago! Power was on and off. The same for you?
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:39 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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OK guys. You told me when Jim Cantore came to town we were safee since he was always in the wrong place. Tonight he is moving to Gulf Breeze Hospital to broadcast, about 5 blocks from my house. What do you think.
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Talassee
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(Registered User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:40 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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No, I'm actually very pleased...no loss of power or cable (gotta have that for surfing the web) so far. Last year we lost power many times during the hurricanes. Pretty nasty storms coming through now though...
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jr928
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:41 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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I think gulf breeze is obviously safe
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Re: See you soon...
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Thanks for link Mike. Great information there. Many of us who live in Palm Coast will never forget the lack of radio/TV coverage our county received last year during the storms. It appears many of our local stations now have really improved our coverage when forecasting weather. We only get Orlando channels here although we're closer to Jacksonville.
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Terra
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:41 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Oh, is that what he meant when he said they were getting out of there.... Laugh.. silly me, I thought they were getting out of the path of the storm.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:42 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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why JR?
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markg
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(Registered User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:44 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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good luck to you all in the western panhandle and alabama . live stream on wkrg.com . be careful and smart
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VandyBrad
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:46 PM
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Gainesville
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Hi all. I'm currently trying to decide if I should go into my lab and ready it for severe weather. With the more northerly turn and possible landfall near PCB, what can I expect to see in Gainesville with Dennis. The news outlets here really stink and this community provides the most reliable information I can find. Thanks in advance!
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Pressure
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pressure down to 941mb
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:48 PM
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Re: Special NHC Advisory...
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Quote:
New Special NHC Advisory calling for a Cat 4 at landfall...
I just did a live interview with Max Mayfield...they are VERY concerned with the rapid deepening that is ongoing...his words, "If you live with 50 miles of the coast from Panama City west, get out".
Probably the best advice you can hear.
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Margie
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:48 PM
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hi again
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I'm at a friend's house and what did I do but get all three of us looking at Dennis on the web.
Amazing on the sat photo...looks just like it did before hitting Cuba, just like a perfect tire shape in the middle, and perfect on the water vapor view as well. Can't believe it is not a CAT 4 at this point. The pressure is almost down to the 938 before it hit Cuba.
Well I will be very anxious to see the 11pm advisory and discussion, and also to see the results of the models.
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mud1967
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:51 PM
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Re: Pressure
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Is everyone still convinced that a FL/AL land fall is what will happen? Anyone feel that it maybe more PCB?
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:51 PM
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Re: Gainesville
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Quote:
Hi all. I'm currently trying to decide if I should go into my lab and ready it for severe weather. With the more northerly turn and possible landfall near PCB, what can I expect to see in Gainesville with Dennis. The news outlets here really stink and this community provides the most reliable information I can find. Thanks in advance!
Nah! Get a good night's sleep.
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Re: Pressure
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Me... for some strange reason at this time.
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Re: Gainesville
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Quote:
Hi all. I'm currently trying to decide if I should go into my lab and ready it for severe weather. With the more northerly turn and possible landfall near PCB, what can I expect to see in Gainesville with Dennis. The news outlets here really stink and this community provides the most reliable information I can find. Thanks in advance!
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html
this site has wind and rain maps for the current track
hope it helps
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:55 PM
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Re: Gainesville
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VandyBrad, Gainesville is likely to see quite a bit of rain from this storm, perhaps up to 5-7 inches (depending on how much has already been received). Wind gusts may briefly get to tropical storm force, but that is just in gusts and sustained winds are more likely in the 20s. If you feel that there may be something worth going in and taking precautions for, it's better to play it safe than sorry, but I do not believe that there will be a lot of damage...particularly considering the good quality of most of the buildings at UF. It'll largely be like Florida's afternoon thunderstorms, just over a longer period of time and with a bit more rain.
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Re: Pressure
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im there so i hope not
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Talassee
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(Registered User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:56 PM
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Re: Pressure
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Mud...me again. You know we're only 20 miles from the coast. I didn't think much about the "50 miles inland" statement until someone reposted it. Maybe I will have to stay awake until I feel more comfortable about where this storm is going.
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VandyBrad
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:58 PM
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Re: Gainesville
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Thanks Clark!
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mud1967
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 09:59 PM
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Re: Pressure
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I know. Hurricane run where are you when you say here?
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EMS
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:01 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Where/How do you see Jason's broadcast? I click on the webcast link but it doesn't open a file I can play. Thanks.
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Re: Pressure
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Quote:
Is everyone still convinced that a FL/AL land fall is what will happen? Anyone feel that it maybe more PCB?
I am curious about this too. I know a couple hours ago everyone was saying that it was turning more NNW than NW. I guess the 11pm update will tell us more. I know in the blog they are saying closer to PCB than Pensacola. Any other opinions?
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KimmieL
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:03 PM
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Re: Gainesville
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Latest recon says that they found winds 122Knots in the NE quadrant....what does that equate to, maybe about 130 mph? Would that make it a CAT 4?
Kimmie
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hey ya'll...tied the boat down and am a friends house...
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and looking at the models...don't like the look of the hurricane right now....
nothing to prevent it from weakening now....looks like a more north path..right where Ivan went last year...we'll see.....it will be bad for them...looks like we will dodge a bullet with this one...looks like a Pensacola or further east;...but who knows....
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Re: NW Movement
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Hey! I'm kind of scared of the WVUE meterologist in New Orleans, Jeff Baskin. He's been wong so many times....ya think this thing is really gonna turn N-NW??? Looks like to me that that trough is retreating a bit....
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firestar_1
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:04 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Quote:
OK guys. You told me when Jim Cantore came to town we were safee since he was always in the wrong place. Tonight he is moving to Gulf Breeze Hospital to broadcast, about 5 blocks from my house. What do you think.
I'm thinking it might be time to load the car and head north!!!
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Re: Pressure
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Just got a rainfall count from the feeder band that went through Atlanta earlier and the airport near 6 Flags picked up 3.60" in a 3 hour period......
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Re: See you soon...
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If Jim is there, RUN!!!
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leetdan
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:06 PM
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East Coast ocean pics
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Not meaning to derail, still following the eye on Tampa radar myself. But I went out this afternoon to take some pictures on the east coast, Jupiter Inlet and Juno pier to be exact. It's amazing how strong those offshore winds can be even while the storm is over 300 miles away...
http://img132.imageshack.us/gal.php?g=sdsc023287bo.jpg
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VandyBrad
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:09 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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Big squall here in Gainesville right now.
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VandyBrad
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:13 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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Quick question... anyone in central/south Florida see a lot of lightening with this storm. Or has it been mostly wind and rain in these squalls.
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leetdan
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:13 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Quote:
Where/How do you see Jason's broadcast? I click on the webcast link but it doesn't open a file I can play. Thanks.
I tried opening it in IE and directly in Quicktime, neither worked. I'd imagine their website is getting hammered about now.
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sprghill
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:13 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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is there another storm brewing right behind dennis. good luck to everybody in the panhandle.
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nl
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:14 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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yes i think that is strange
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Prospero
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:14 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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There was a lot of lightning this morning.
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leetdan
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:15 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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Quote:
Quick question... anyone in central/south Florida see a lot of lightening with this storm. Or has it been mostly wind and rain in these squalls.
For the most part no, but one particularly strong band did. Somebody on the pier saw some lightning to the North, then we heard thunder rolling in from the South and West. That ended the photo shoot
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Re: See you soon...
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Quote:
Quote:
Where/How do you see Jason's broadcast? I click on the webcast link but it doesn't open a file I can play. Thanks.
I tried opening it in IE and directly in Quicktime, neither worked. I'd imagine their website is getting hammered about now.
I get a screen that says "webcast is unavailable"
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VandyBrad
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:15 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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Thanks Prospero.
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look at infrared! Cat 5 soon!?!
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Isn't it true that no one can say for sure WHAT this will do for strengthening?...they didn't think a while back it would get to 4 did they?...
anything is possible....it's the Gulf of Mexico in July, ya'll....
HOT SST's.....!!!!
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nl
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:16 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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watch the fsumm5 model and it shows 2 storms right beside each other by next week
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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heavy band going through Palm Coast right now. High winds, heavy rain...lots of lightning as well.
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:17 PM
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Re: Pressure
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Quote:
Mud...me again. You know we're only 20 miles from the coast. I didn't think much about the "50 miles inland" statement until someone reposted it. Maybe I will have to stay awake until I feel more comfortable about where this storm is going.
Renee, I don't know your location. I reposted Jason's quote from Max Mayfield so that those that have just joined in could see it.
If you think you are in a dangerous location, or in a mobile home. Please get out! That applies to everyone in the "Cone".
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Reaper
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:17 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/profe...i&type=loop
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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Good luck to everyone in the path of Dennis the Menace!!!
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dolfinatic
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:20 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND TAMPA INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.
FORECASTER BEVEN This is .1 east and .1 south from the 9:00 fix. hmmm it was at 26.3 85.1
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nl
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:21 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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tornado in live oak
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Frank P
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:21 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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for the last 4 hours Dennis has gone ~,70 degrees NORTH and ~.39 degress WEST... this is NNW...
and for the past hour Dennis has gone ~.25 NORTH and ~.17 WEST... still more north than west...
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VandyBrad
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:21 PM
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Re: See you soon...
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Tornado warning in Live Oak.
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wxman007
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:24 PM
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WJHG Streaming Video
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We are working on it, but having problems...we are efforting now...
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jr928
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:25 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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biloxi looks to be in BIG trouble.
Please use NHC Official forecasts, thanks
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Re: Gainesville
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Quote:
Latest recon says that they found winds 122Knots in the NE quadrant....what does that equate to, maybe about 130 mph? Would that make it a CAT 4?
Kimmie
multiply by 1.15 = 140mph but I believe that recon is at altitude, not the surface (which are lower), and thus they will extrapolate what the surface winds would be.
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jth
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:27 PM
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This NNW motion has been forecast by the NHC since the beginning
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If Dennis were to move NW all the way to landfall, he would hit NO. Check out their forecast maps. The movement from here to the coast has always been NNW. Dennis is still right on track. They have done an amazing job with this storm.
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garrison
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:28 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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wasnt it Camile that hammered Biloxi some 35 yrs ago? can someone give me the exact year and strength?
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jth
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:29 PM
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69 and off the charts.
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nm
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Frank P
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:29 PM
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Re: This NNW motion has been forecast by the NHC since the beginning
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I agree jth, Biloxi is by no means out of the picture, but the more this thing goes NNW, and the numbers don't lie, the better we'll do... I expect right now for us to get Cat 1 hurricane force winds if every thing goes to plan...
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Re: This NNW motion has been forecast by the NHC since the beginning
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key west is still TS force with gusts over 50.
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DebbiePSL
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:31 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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steve lyons said on TWC there are 2 more systems they will be watching
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Margie
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:31 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
wasnt it Camile that hammered Biloxi some 35 yrs ago? can someone give me the exact year and strength?
Camille hit in August of 1969. I was 13. It was a CAT 5 and the winds that hit near the eye, in Hancock Co MS, were around 200mph.
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Frank P
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:32 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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August 17, 1969 my car's clock stopped at 11:36 pm on a Sunday night as that's the time it went under water.. it was a 63 Rambler, I was 16... needless to say the car never worked again.... as I recall it didn't work too good to start with...
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jth
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:33 PM
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Re: This NNW motion has been forecast by the NHC since the beginning
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That sounds reasonable. I believe the storm will make landfall just east of Pcola....maybe as far east as Destin.
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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the GFS prefers the 2nd one.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...ation</a>
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jr928
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:34 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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one weather channel guy said that the blow up on the east quad will swing back around and it could be enough to jog west a bit overnight.
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Talassee
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(Registered User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:34 PM
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Re: Pressure
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Really appreciate the concern Daniel...we're in Tallahassee in brick house with three sides glass exposure to the South. As long as the storm stays on it's track to Al/FL border and we don't get winds too strong here..we'll keep the roof! Thanks again.
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jr928
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:36 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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for this one to occur dennis would have to go due north really soon
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garrison
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:38 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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amazing, I did some checking on Camile http://www.angelfire.com/ms3/n5ycn/camille.html
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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I have been off the site here since 4pm...needed a break. The last radar loops I looked at showed at N/NW motion. Am I correct in that thinking?
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:39 PM
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Leaving
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Jim Cantore just brought up a really good point.
As many found out during the 2004 season. They stayed behind, and when it got really bad they called 911. Most, if not all, Emergency Service Agencies-Fire, Police, Ambulance, Sherriff; Will Not come out after the winds reach 45 mph. It is far too dangerous for them to come out and try and rescue you. If someone has asked you to leave. Be it family, friends or authorities. Please get out now while there is still time.
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jr928
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:41 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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did anyone see the fox weather guy talking about the low off LA that was building south but not east and might push the storm harder or faster to shore some time tomorrow? didn't pinpoint a location just said it could really cause more surge.
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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Hey, where did you hear about it heading more west??? Any validity to it??? Seeing it on radar more N/NW....what do you all think??
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Frank P
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:43 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Yeah Colleen, from my plots over the past 5.5 hours it has gone ~.79 NORTH and ~.44 WEST.... looks to be jogging from NNW to NW.... nothing official, taken from the lat/long plots from TB radar...
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Margie
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:44 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
did anyone see the fox weather guy talking about the low off LA that was building south but not east and might push the storm harder or faster to shore some time tomorrow? didn't pinpoint a location just said it could really cause more surge.
Yeah he also said no buildings could withstand a CAT 3!
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jr928
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:44 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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weather channel, but they didn't say it was going west now but that the convection when it swings back around could pull it a little west.
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VandyBrad
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:44 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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125mph, 941mb at 11pm
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:46 PM
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NWS-Hurricane Local Statements
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Check your area here.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml
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Margie
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:47 PM
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Re: Leaving
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Quote:
Jim Cantore just brought up a really good point.
As many found out during the 2004 season. They stayed behind, and when it got really bad they called 911. Most, if not all, Emergency Service Agencies-Fire, Police, Ambulance, Sherriff; Will Not come out after the winds reach 45 mph. It is far too dangerous for them to come out and try and rescue you. If someone has asked you to leave. Be it family, friends or authorities. Please get out now while there is still time.
Actually my brother who is with the Sheriff's Dept was out in IVAN until the winds got around 60mph. Things got pretty hairy before they told everyone to come in. But yes there was a point beyond which they could not go out to rescue anyone.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:48 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
did anyone see the fox weather guy talking about the low off LA that was building south but not east and might push the storm harder or faster to shore some time tomorrow? didn't pinpoint a location just said it could really cause more surge.
Checking the WV loop, Dennis is pushing that back westward. Dennis's outflow is now the dominate feature in the gulf.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Michael, Ya think that will drag Dennis more westward????
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:51 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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Yes lot's of lightning withe the feeder bands today.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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According to CNN they said the 11pm track puts landfall somewhere near Gulf Shores, Alabama. They had Gov Riley on earlier and he said that the window of evacuation is gonna close in a couple of hours and that 70-80mph sustained winds will go as far north tomorrow as Birmingham
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Margie
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:52 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Yes and new strike probs highest for Pensacola & MOB...looks like it is AL/FL state line.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Jeff,
Jim and Geraldo???? Wow...feel for ya
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Ron Basso
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:53 PM
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Re: Dennis' 12 Hour Movement
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Here's where u can look at Dennis' path the last 12 hours.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
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BillD
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(User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:55 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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We had several strong bands come through Miami over the last 36 hours. Although there were strong winds and heavy rain, I never heard any thunder. We had 100,000+ without power and lots of trees down, still no lightening that I saw.
In fact with comments made earlier today about how the weather wasn't any different than the average afternoon thunderstorm and travelers should have no problems. I didn't want to get into that negative discussion, but that is totally NOT the case. The weather we have been seeing is NOTHING like the regular thunderstorms we get. The winds are much higher and more variable, the rain more intense, and NO lightening. This is NOT normal weather as some stated earlier.
Bill
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:55 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
Michael, Ya think that will drag Dennis more westward????
No. The outflow from Dennis is simply stronger than the trough.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Anyone know of a good streaming radio feed out of Ala?
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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wow........
tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles. Hurricane force winds associated with Dennis may occur as far as 150 to 175 miles inland along the track of the hurricane.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Thanks, Frank...I guess much of the bad weather is to our west...although I know there are still more feeder bands to go., althought according to local mets, won't be all that bad since it's so far off the coast. I guess tonight into tomorrow will tell the tale. I hope that you all are safe and secure...and I can't believe it will be almost a Cat4...may God bless anyone in it's path.
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OrlandoDan
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:58 PM
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Re: Dennis' 12 Hour Movement
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Wew. Central Florida (Orlando) is out of the woods on this one. I have been through three of these bad boys and there is no joking or fun about them. I thought the first I was through would be fun, so I was partying. I quickly realized that partying is not appropriate - like the possibility of death or serious injury would be a serious possibility.
Let us all hope and pray that there is not this such naivety in the panhanlde.
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dolfinatic
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:58 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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latest advisory TS winds extend out 230 miles. Guess us on the west coast are going to get more wind than what the news has been tellin us.
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markg
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(Registered User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:59 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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wkrg.com is streaming video
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leetdan
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 10:59 PM
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Re: East Coast ocean pics
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Heh... there's a fairly strong cell forming off Palm Beach, and there've been three vivid lightning flashes with loud thunder in as many minutes.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
latest advisory TS winds extend out 230 miles. Guess us on the west coast are going to get more wind than what the news has been tellin us.
the eye may be >230 miles away from St Pete.
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VandyBrad
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:02 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Possible tornado east and north of Madison, FL
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:06 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
latest advisory TS winds extend out 230 miles. Guess us on the west coast are going to get more wind than what the news has been tellin us.
Yeah. I'm thinking the west coast is gong to have a rough night. There have already been damage reports exceeding those from last season. Probably from hidden damage from last year. Last 3 hours obs from the NWS station at the St. Pete/Clearwater Airport have been consistent at sustained winds at 25-35 MPH with gusts to 41 MPH. With the larger wind field of Dennis, we might be seeing higher values later.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Yes, I guess that all depends if Dennis is truly on a more N/NW track...if it is, we'll get hammered by the backside,too. Speaking of which...I just felt a rumble of thunder that made me jump. I would guess that this is the next round of feeder bands getting ready to pass through. The Tornado Watch was supposed to expire here at 11pm. I guess I'll go check to see if that's still the case.
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DebbiePSL
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:08 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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couldn't get the video to work
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Prospero
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:09 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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The Tampa Bay area was hit worst by Jeanne well after she passed by.
The wrap-arounds were intense.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
latest advisory TS winds extend out 230 miles. Guess us on the west coast are going to get more wind than what the news has been tellin us.
I checked, it says "up to 230 miles". Last advisory said 175 miles, so you're on the border on maybe getting em as you're about 175-200 miles out.
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leetdan
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:12 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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04Z discussion is up, with more strong and colorful language.
"after deepening at a rate that bordered on insane during the afternoon...Dennis has continued to strengthen at a more normal rate this evening."
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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in Fort Myers the winds were E and SE all day but the strongest winds were when Dennis was South of being due West of us.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KFMY.html
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G. J.
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:17 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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To me, a novice, this storm [center] looks tight and compact like Charley, so why would the TS winds extend out to 230mi.? Charley passed about 30/40 miles to the east of me and we barely got a whisp of wind.
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rjp
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:18 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
To me, a novice, this storm [center] looks tight and compact like Charley, so why would the TS winds extend out to 230mi.? Charley passed about 30/40 miles to the east of me and we barely got a whisp of wind.
Depends on the quadrant you're in, too. The winds don't always extend in a complete round circle exactly the same in every direction from the center.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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LeetDan,
Can you link where that lively discussion is going on???
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Never mind...GOT IT!
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:22 PM
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Mississippi Coast Update
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After reading the 11 pm Discussion and the mention of Pascagoula to Pensacola as the "landfall area." I decided to go ahead and post this.
Evacuation Jackson County:
Jackson County Civil Defense declared a mandatory evacuation of all Zone A residents including all low lying areas, mobile homes, campgrounds and beach front. The Jackson County Civil Defense highly recommends evacuation of all other areas.
A nightly curfew will go into effect from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. beginning Saturday.
For current storm information for Jackson County, listen to the following radio stations:
WPMP AM 1580 or WOSM FM 103.1
Hancock County:
Hancock County EMA is issuing a mandatory evacuation for Zones A & B and all low lying areas that have been prone to flooding. People in mobile homes should make preparations to evacuate.
The people of Bay St. Louis and Waveland are only under a recommended evacuation.
Hancock County EMA is now working a skeleton crew on 24 hour operations at the emergency operations center. Any questions, please contact the EMA office at (228)467-9226.
Harrison County:
Mandatory evacuation for Zones A & B and evacuation is strongly recommended for Zone C.
Emergency management officials said following the mandatory order is a matter of life or death. Failing to evacuate puts lives at grave risk. Residents who stay during the storm may at times have no chance of medical, police or fire rescue.
Mississippi Gaming Commission announced that all Harrison County casinos will close at 12 a.m. Sunday.
http://www.msema.org/evacuationinfo..htm http://www.msema.org/index.htm
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cjzydeco
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:23 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Yeah, it appears that forcaster Bevins has a great sense of humor!
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:23 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
To me, a novice, this storm [center] looks tight and compact like Charley, so why would the TS winds extend out to 230mi.? Charley passed about 30/40 miles to the east of me and we barely got a whisp of wind.
The NE quadrant is the most intense and largest. For Charley, Tampa was on the weak side. The worst case scenario for Tampa Bay would be for an eye landfall at Tarpon Springs.
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tenavilla
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:25 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
I checked, it says "up to 230 miles". Last advisory said 175 miles, so you're on the border on maybe getting em as you're about 175-200 miles out.
11pm news here in Tampa just said we were approx 171 miles from the eye right now, so pretty close to the border, but it will depend on whether it goes more NNW or NW.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
To me, a novice, this storm [center] looks tight and compact like Charley, so why would the TS winds extend out to 230mi.? Charley passed about 30/40 miles to the east of me and we barely got a whisp of wind.
charley was pretty small, but strong in the center. if a hurricane is moving due north being west of the storm the winds are the lightest as the circulation is going the opposite direction of the forward speed. check this to compare sizes.
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/fracharivan.gif
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BabyCat
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:28 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#dennis
This site has a nice wind speed graphic Pretty helpful
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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11pm news here in Tampa just said we were approx 171 miles from the eye right now, so pretty close to the border, but it will depend on whether it goes more NNW or NW.
OK. i was guesstimatiing off of this.
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/dennis_22b.gif
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:32 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
Quote:
To me, a novice, this storm [center] looks tight and compact like Charley, so why would the TS winds extend out to 230mi.? Charley passed about 30/40 miles to the east of me and we barely got a whisp of wind.
charley was pretty small, but strong in the center. if a hurricane is moving due north being west of the storm the winds are the lightest as the circulation is going the opposite direction of the forward speed. check this to compare sizes.
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/fracharivan.gif
Yes, Charley was a very compact storm. The area of severe damage at Punta Gorda was only about 15-20 miles in total width.
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Doombot!
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:37 PM
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Help is already on the way.
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To those of you who end up getting the worst of it:
I saw my first caravan of electric bucket trucks heading out of Polk county (and we got three eye's of the storm last year). You'll be amazed that the speed at which both the state and federal govenments will get in the basics (food, water etc) in to you.
If you're in the path, don't dispair, get away from the coast, and get as much gasoline as you can get your hands on, right now.
Good luck all.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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NHC map now shows Alabama landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405W+gif/024557W_sm.gif
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Westward shift from the previous track over Escambia Bay, FL. I still think Gulfport/Biloxi or Pascagoula area......trough not looking as aggessive as it did yesterday.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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I'll say Mobile Bay. High tide is about 3-4PM local time.....ouch!
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is my boat toast?
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probably...It's inland from Dauphin Island about 15 miles...up Mobile Bay...however...it's critical which side of the Bay Dennis comes in from...if it indeed hits Mobile...I'm on the west side, and up the wide part of Dog River about 1/2 mile....
worst case scenario is a 20 ft surge...and of course 120 mph winds or so...ought pretty much wipe it out...
I'm insured...so....at least that's a good thing...
still think a cat 5 is probable...still do....I think it's a category four right now....
take care ya'll...we'll see.....I'm hunkered down and hoping it doesn't turn into an Andrew...however...its a tight little storm.....in the center...and it concerns me.....looks like Andrew did...
a buzz saw
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:49 PM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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erikakane -- I would tend to disagree. The ridge is backing slowly to the east and the trough is actually a bit further south (and now east) than it was earlier today. In my view, Mississippi is in the clear for a direct landfall; it's Alabama and eastward now. Obviously, the whole area is going to see something from Dennis...how much of something depends on a precise track.
I've got to turn in for the day. Everyone, stay safe and get some rest: it's going to be a long day tomorrow.
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Re: is my boat toast?
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i see ya Rick.....near Mann? good luck bud. be safe.
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:53 PM
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Re: is my boat toast?
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Rick, I hope not! 940mb MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 03:27:10
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Re: is my boat toast?
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Rick, you might be on Storm Stories soon....but hopefully with happy ending. BE SAFE!! GOOD LUCK!!!
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recmod
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:57 PM
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Latest Vortex Indicates Cat 4
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Here is the latest Vortex Message from Recon:
Quote:
Storm Name: DENNIS (04L) Mission Number: 15 Flight ID: AF308 Observation Number: 22 Time: 03:29:30Z Latitude: 26.7°N Longitude: 85.4°W Location: 195 mi WSW of Tampa, Florida Minimum height at 700 mb 2566 m Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA Maximum flight level wind: SE (146°) @ 151 mph Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 9 mi ENE (58°) Sea level pressure: 940 mb Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 48°F at 10072 feet Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 66°F at 10000 feet Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 50°F Eye character: CLOSED WALL Eye shape: Circular Eye diameter: 12 mi Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 2 nm MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 03:27:10 Z
At 11:27, recon reports central pressure is down to 940 mb (27.76) with flight level winds of 131 knots. This equates to a surface wind of 135mph.....looks like Dennis is once again a Category 4 hurricane!
--Lou
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Radio links...?
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Does anyone have links to radio stations that may be broadcasting from the affected areas....or perhaps an all encompassing site with numerous links?
Thanks in advance from a long time lurker and new poster.
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HumanCookie
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 11:59 PM
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Re: is my boat toast?
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Quote:
Rick, I hope not! 940mb MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 03:27:10
Where is the latest recon reading from? what site?
131 kt = 150 mph
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recmod
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:00 AM
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Re: Latest Vortex Indicates Cat 4
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As if Dennis weren't enough, we have a new invest for the wave in the central atlantic...looks like this one may develop too! Are we going to see Emily before the second week of July?? Meteorologist Tom Terry on WFTV Channel 9 in Orlando also pointed out yet another healthy wave pulling off of Africa that he feels might be future trouble
--Lou
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cjzydeco
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:02 AM
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Re: Latest Vortex Indicates Cat 4
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940 mb and 135 mph SL winds already? Yikes!
When was the last big hit for Mobile? I know Ivan was close, but was Camille the last direct hit? Anybody got a link for historical Camille info?
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Re: is my boat toast?
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That latest recon came from the weather channel just before midnight.
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TDW
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:04 AM
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Re: Radio links...?
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The CBS station in Mobile has a live webcast of their coverage at www.wkrg.com
fixed link
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Re: Latest Vortex Indicates Cat 4
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The last good direct hit for Mobile was Frederick Sept 1979. High Cat 3
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lagetawaay
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(Registered User)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:05 AM
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Re: Latest Vortex Indicates Cat 4
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fredric in 1979 i was 12 and thought it was fun at the time
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garrison
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:05 AM
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Re: Latest Vortex Indicates Cat 4
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Heres one, but there are probably plenty of better ones http://www.angelfire.com/ms3/n5ycn/camille.html
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cat 4...and jogged west...
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landfall at Mississippi/Alabama state line, I think....
category 4...but maybe a 5.....mass of deep red convection around eyewall is fluxing....first deep red.....then expands...then gets deep red..then expands...then deep red....
if it slows down...they usually die down a tad before landfall...
If it stays at 15 mph...we could have a Camille or Andrew...
I'm allowed to type this because I am a novice....and don't know any better...
He is not a novice, and does know better. Rick!
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WeatherNLU
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(Meteorologist)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:07 AM
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Re: Radio links...?
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11PM estimate?
85.3 back to 85.2?? Did I miss a turn to the east?
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Lisa NC
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:08 AM
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Re: Latest Vortex Indicates Cat 4
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Past Hurricane tracks I use is http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/ enjoy
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Re: cat 4...and jogged west...
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Rick,
For a guy staying on his boat for a cat 4 storm, ya can type what ya want and still be an expert!!!
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WeatherNLU
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(Meteorologist)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:13 AM
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Re: Radio links...?
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Quote:
11PM estimate?
85.3 back to 85.2?? Did I miss a turn to the east?
I have looked at three or four different sites and there is no way that Dennis is at 85.2W.
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Re: cat 4...and jogged west...
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I'm not on my boat silly....only someone wanting to die would be on their boat...I'm in Mobile about 15 miles north........in a 1 1/2 story house...I tied the boat up and left about 6 hours ago....
would never risk my life...but starting to wonder now why I didn't leave Mobile....
the governor of Alabama ordered a mandatory evacuation of Mobile county....
400,000 people...woulda been impossible....anyone south of I-10 should leave..but most haven't...have a lot of friends down that area of Mobile....probably 10-15% of Mobilians have left...maybe even less than that.....
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Re: cat 4...and jogged west...
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Rick,
We evacuated ALOT of people from New Orleans last year for Ivan. More than 500,000 I think. Glad you not on the boat. But still gonna be hairy. Lots o luck!
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SkeetoBite
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(Master of Maps)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:17 AM
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Re: cat 4...and jogged west...
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Quote:
....probably 10-15% of Mobilians have left...maybe even less than that.....
Probably a less than good decision:
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bn765
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:18 AM
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Re: cat 4...and jogged west...
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When is the next advisory supposed to come out from the NHC?
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TDW
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:18 AM
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Re: cat 4...and jogged west...
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I'm disobeying the evac order. I just left Mobile Bay (nice breeze so far), but I'm staying in west Mobile
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Margie
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:20 AM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
NHC map now shows Alabama landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405W+gif/024557W_sm.gif
I am so upset about this. The models showed this at 8am this morning, I saw it myself, and the forecast track wasn't changed until now, and MS Gulf Coast did not evacuate as many people in time as could have been convinced to evacuate. When I talked to my brother, who works for the sheriff's dept, this afternoon he said nothing about a mandatory evac order so it sounds like this was not put in place until after the 11pm advisory that changed the landfall to MOB. All the emphasis was first on FL and then today on AL. Thank goodness the eye is predicted to land to the east, even if it is too close for comfort; in a CAT 3 storm surge, about 80% of Jackson Co is under water (storm surge maps, evac maps, and evac routes are all online on the state of MS web site). If the eye lands to the west it would be a horrible horrible situation for everyone in Jackson Co.
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Re: cat 4...and jogged west...
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Top of the hour....1am EDT....full advisory 5amEDT I believe, but there are hourly updates on position and strength
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teal61
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:21 AM
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00z GFS shifts slightly west from 18z run...
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Shows a MS coast landfall and the 00z NAM is just a little further west than this near the LA/MS border.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_024l.gif
Frank P. don't mess around with this. You take care.
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thanks ya'll
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I'll be logging off in a bit...but be back on tomorrow till we lose power, and keep all of ya posted on the conditions...problem though...is that power is lost about 4-5 hours BEFORE the eye lands ashore....however, I have a TV from Walmart for 38 bucks....black and white...and can run on batteries...car cigarette lighter plug in..or regular power...
when we lose power, at least I can fire the TV up and hopefully catch the news channel on their emergency broadcast...and perhaps watch the eye...during Ivan..power went out...and no one local knew just where the eye was gonna go in....and it jogged east and hit Pensacola....I kept wondering when the winds were gonna pick up...went to bed late...and it just never got bad....
hurricanes are freaky....
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javlin
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:21 AM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Come on Frank you're not that old.Drove by tonight water was slick as glass you where still boarded up from Cindy I guess.Maybe shoot by the place after I finish boarding if on the same path. Javlin
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javlin
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:23 AM
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Re: Radio links...?
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Nlu I have got 85.5W maybe 85.6.
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Re: 00z GFS shifts slightly west from 18z run...
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Teal, this looks like a precip map. Is this just one model shifting to West??? I also agree that they should have ordered evac from Miss Coast sooner....it's alot of people to move on limited highways
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Re: thanks ya'll
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See you tomorrow Rick...take care pls
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WeatherNLU
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(Meteorologist)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:26 AM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Can anyone help me understand where the 85.2W came from? Am I missing something???
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Re: cat 4...and jogged west...
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Quote:
Probably a less than good decision:
skeeto......check data.
Hurricane force winds associated with Dennis may occur as far as 150 to 175 miles inland along the track of the hurricane.
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jth
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:27 AM
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Frederic
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Everyone keeps talking about Camille, but the track is almost identical to Frederic in 1979 that destroyed Mobile. If Dauphin Island gets a direct hit, I don't know if any builing will remain standing.
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
Quote:
NHC map now shows Alabama landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405W+gif/024557W_sm.gif
I am so upset about this. The models showed this at 8am this morning, I saw it myself, and the forecast track wasn't changed until now, and MS Gulf Coast did not evacuate as many people in time as could have been convinced to evacuate. When I talked to my brother, who works for the sheriff's dept, this afternoon he said nothing about a mandatory evac order so it sounds like this was not put in place until after the 11pm advisory that changed the landfall to MOB. All the emphasis was first on FL and then today on AL. Thank goodness the eye is predicted to land to the east, even if it is too close for comfort; in a CAT 3 storm surge, about 80% of Jackson Co is under water (storm surge maps, evac maps, and evac routes are all online on the state of MS web site). If the eye lands to the west it would be a horrible horrible situation for everyone in Jackson Co.
the track has been FL/AL border all day. Alabama is just dense if they choose not to evac. people don't listen. focus on the cone, not the line.
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Shan
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:29 AM
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Re: Frederic
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I'm just north of D.I. in Bayou La Batre. I don't know if much of the island will be left if it sustains a direct hit.
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Re: Frederic
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Nite all!!! Get some rest for tomorrow....looks like a breeze will be a-blowin somewhere....luck to all in its path!!!!
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Re: Frederic
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didn't destroy mobile...just screwed it up real bad...trees down..power out....roofs torn off...sometimes the plywood...a home wiped out here...and right next to it nothing...(had to be a down burst.)....and it was a dry hurricane too....
a cat 4 or 5 would be painful....real painful...
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kissy
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:31 AM
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Re: 00z GFS shifts slightly west from 18z run...
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Tell me about it! Since I'm in Jackson CO and didn't get the evac order until to late. There are still alot of people left in town. Have to say that this morning I was a bit ticked that we still had no solid evacuations even though mobile CO. (right next door) had been fully evaced! Not that I would wish this monster on anyone but I hope it doesn;t hit us!
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G. J.
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:31 AM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
the track has been FL/AL border all day. Alabama is just dense if they choose not to evac. people don't listen. focus on the cone, not the line.
This is a perfect example
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recmod
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:31 AM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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That 12 midnight position update is a mistake..they reposted the 10pm coordinates
--Lou
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:35 AM
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Re: Frederic
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Quote:
I'm just north of D.I. in Bayou La Batre. I don't know if much of the island will be left if it sustains a direct hit.
Shan, based on the newest Advisory I would get out now. Before traffic gets too bad. You are in a very low place. Surge would be terrible if the eye were to come in west of Bayou La Batre'
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:35 AM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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This track could change Pensacola Beach forever...Santa Rosa Island could become 4 islands if there is another storm surge like Ivan, and since the beach faces sse, this looks bad.
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Doombot!
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:38 AM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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New topic
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Margie
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:38 AM
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Re: 00z GFS shifts slightly west from 18z run...
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Quote:
Tell me about it! Since I'm in Jackson CO and didn't get the evac order until to late. There are still alot of people left in town. Have to say that this morning I was a bit ticked that we still had no solid evacuations even though mobile CO. (right next door) had been fully evaced! Not that I would wish this monster on anyone but I hope it doesn;t hit us!
Kissy! Are you going to try to leave now? What's going on there - is everyone asleep or are things happening now like letting people know local evacuation shelters like schools? Do you think people will try to get up 63 to Hattiesburg now? If the storm tracks further west that'll flood real early, only leaving I-10 to go east or west.
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WeatherNLU
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(Meteorologist)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:38 AM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Quote:
That 12 midnight position update is a mistake..they reposted the 10pm coordinates
--Lou
Thanks Lou, I was beginning to wonder what was going on.
I have around 26.9N and 85.6W.
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:39 AM
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New Thread
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New Thread is up. Please post there.
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Frank P
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:41 AM
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Re: WJHG Streaming Video
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Teal, I'm watching this like a hawk.... I posted several days ago I felt this could be the second coming of Fredrick, but only stronger.... looks that might be coming to fruition....
Jav, come on by, I'll be up all night and make my decision as to if we'll leave early in the am... got several options on where we can go... still got time... Just want this thing to keep east of me.. ... Fredrick was not all that bad for Biloxi and I think the eye went near the MS/AL line... this could very well happen again... I hope it doesn't get any closer than Pascagoula....
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News From Seminole County FL
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A data point for everyone north, south, east, and west of Oviedo FL in Seminole County: It's eerie quiet here...
We're located just north of the high school for those familiar with the area. We're near the top of the "L" in "Orlando" for those watching the National Weather Service Radar Image from Tampa Bay.
We had one storm band before dusk that barely rated as a normal daily rain. No lightning, no real wind. At this moment, it's cool, damp, and silent outside. It's been overcast all day, but the northwestward skittering low clouds are now gone as well.
We've had no significant weather events here during this regional crisis. Meanwhile, tropical storm events have been reported within twenty miles of here. It reminds me of the aftermath of Charley, when I was dealing with devastation at my house, and my boss who lived five miles away had no damage at all and wondered why I hadn't worked the weekend!
This all meets the higher end of my expectations, because we have not yet repaired all of the damage from Charley. We still have blue tarps over the garage and the southeast side of the house, and probably won't be finished for several more months. Our house is fragile, but it survived Francis and Jeanne without additional damage. Unfortunately, the blue tarps are aging...
There are some bands approaching from the south, and I just hope they continue to spare us.
Thanks to everyone on this board for the spirited discussions that have kept Leslee and me sane during Charley, Francis, Jeanne, and Dennis. For us, FLHurricane.com is one of the most useful places on the Internet. Unlike most Internet blogs, this one has maintained an extraordinary signal to noise ratio!
Regards,
Larry
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