(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:37 AM

Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

Good luck everyone. At least this will be the last "Dennis" ever.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:41 AM

Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

Sleep will be very difficult.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:41 AM

Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

Man! Pensicola bridge will be like a pancake again.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:42 AM

Frederick-repost from last thread

Quote:

I'm just north of D.I. in Bayou La Batre. I don't know if much of the island will be left if it sustains a direct hit.

Shan, based on the newest Advisory I would get out now. Before traffic gets too bad.
You are in a very low place. Surge would be terrible if the eye were to come in west of Bayou La Batre'.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:43 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

Teal, I'm watching this like a hawk.... I posted several days ago I felt this could be the second coming of Fredrick, but only stronger.... looks that might be coming to fruition....

Jav, come on by, I'll be up all night and make my decision as to if we'll leave early in the am... got several options on where we can go... still got time... Just want this thing to keep east of me.. ... Fredrick was not all that bad for Biloxi and I think the eye went near the MS/AL line... this could very well happen again... I hope it doesn't get any closer than Pascagoula....

(sorry about the repost but I wanted teal and jav to get the message)

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:47 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

Well One thing I think we can rule out is that this storm will be a CAT 5.

I dont see that much strenghting where winds will be up to 156.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:48 AM

Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

Kissy! Are you going to try to leave now? What's going on there - is everyone asleep or are things happening now like letting people know local evacuation shelters like schools? Do you think people will try to get up 63 to Hattiesburg now? If the storm tracks further west that'll flood real early, only leaving I-10 to go east or west.

Listen I have to leave my friend's house and go home but I'll come back on in a half hour and maybe I can give you the phone numbers of my mom and other brother in Moss Point. I wonder if they should consider evac'ing now. By 6 or 7 am the winds will be too high to leave.

My brother with the Sheriff's dept will be on duty starting at 2am this morning until it is over...his wife will be dispatching. Neither of them will be home, they have to stay and work. I don't know if I'll be able to get hold of him because he'll be pretty busy.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:48 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

Dan, I have the center at 27.00N and 85.62 West.... the past two hours Dennis has gone .38 degrees N and .40 degrees W... pretty much NW by my book, sure would like to see some more northerly component....

Shan

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:49 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

We're a few miles from the water and in a pretty high place. We do have a few businesses around Shell Belt Rd. and Cindy put over two feet of water in them. If I were in that area, I'd be gone!

(Weather Drama Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:51 AM

as strong as IVAN

small eye....15 nautical miles wide...

Ivan devastated Pensacola....just tore it up....

a cat 5....don't even wanna think about it..

(Weather Drama Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:55 AM

ivan vs Dennis

Ivan came in from the west to east

Dennis is coming in from east to west....

no right hook to spare us this time

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:55 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

Quote:

Dan, I have the center at 27.00N and 85.62 West.... the past two hours Dennis has gone .38 degrees N and .40 degrees W... pretty much NW by my book, sure would like to see some more northerly component....

Frank, I couldn't help but notice that. I wish it were different for everyone. Be ready.

I'm not ruling out hazardous conditions at daybreak. We just clouded over here in Hattiesburg. About 30 minutes ago.

Good luck to all. I'll see all of you in the morning.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:58 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

NO Frank..no northerly component...12 miles east of Pensacola in Gulf Breeze...please no north component!

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:02 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

Good night guys. I'm praying for everyone on the Gulf Coast.
Please make your preparations and stay safe.
I said in a previous thread and I'll repeat it here.

Things can be replaced, your human life can not be replaced.
Make sure you are in a secure place to ride this one out.

See you on the other side.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

Dennis a Cat 4 again as of 1AM.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

pcola, I feel your pain, you guys have gone through more than most should ever have to deal with, its going to go where it wants... we all watch in amazement, and times like this, fear.... what ever happens, I just want to be on that west side.... even at its present track, if it holds, you guys will take a beating in the NE quad... good luck to you and all who will face this beast tomorrow.....

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:04 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

1m EDT update - 135 MPH winds - CAT 4

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:05 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

Dennis now Cat 4...135mph winds

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:06 AM

937 mb!

The 1am advisory brings Dennis back to a Cat 4 with 135 mph winds and a central pressure of 937 mb (27.67). This is 1mb lower than when Dennis was south of Cuba with 150 mph winds. I think by 5 am we may be looking at a 150 mph hurricane again.....

This is becoming a true nightmare....

--Lou

superfly

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:07 AM

track

It should be starting to make a more northerly turn now. It has followed the same trajectory for about 24 hours now which would make it hit just to the right of Biloxi without a turn.

kissy

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:09 AM

Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

We are going to weather it out. We're as prepared as we can be with all the windows boarded and a generator ready to go! Praying for everyone that will be in the path of this one! Off to bed tonight, be backin the AM

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:09 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

Quote:

We're a few miles from the water and in a pretty high place. We do have a few businesses around Shell Belt Rd. and Cindy put over two feet of water in them. If I were in that area, I'd be gone!

Shan
No matter where you at down in Batre you need to get to high grounds. I know the main St will be under water. I use to live above the old fire station down there and I know what a little thunder boomer will do. And this aint no thunder boomer.

Larry Lawver

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:09 AM

News From Seminole County FL

Lost at the end of the last thread................

A data point for everyone north, south, east, and west of Oviedo FL in Seminole County: It's eerie quiet here...

We're located just north of the high school for those familiar with the area. We're near the top of the "L" in "Orlando" for those watching the National Weather Service Radar Image from Tampa Bay.

We had one storm band before dusk that barely rated as a normal daily rain. No lightning, no real wind. At this moment, it's cool, damp, and silent outside. It's been overcast all day, but the northwestward skittering low clouds are now gone as well.

We've had no significant weather events here during this regional crisis. Meanwhile, tropical storm events have been reported within twenty miles of here. It reminds me of the aftermath of Charley, when I was dealing with devastation at my house, and my boss who lived five miles away had no damage at all and wondered why I hadn't worked the weekend!

This all meets the higher end of my expectations, because we have not yet repaired all of the damage from Charley. We still have blue tarps over the garage and the southeast side of the house, and probably won't be finished for several more months. Our house is fragile, but it survived Francis and Jeanne without additional damage. Unfortunately, the blue tarps are aging...

There are some bands approaching from the south, and I just hope they continue to spare us.

Thanks to everyone on this board for the spirited discussions that have kept Leslee and me sane during Charley, Francis, Jeanne, and Dennis. For us, FLHurricane.com is one of the most useful places on the Internet. Unlike most Internet blogs, this one has maintained an extraordinary signal to noise ratio!

Regards,

Larry

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:09 AM

Re: track

The local NW service here in Pcola says the storm could track further west. Stay alert in MS

remedios

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:09 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

Weather is windy here on the S E Coast, and I'm feeling a lot of concern and empathy for you folks in the cone. This is not going to be fun for any of you.
Here's wishing you all the best.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:10 AM

Re: Frederick-repost from last thread

This is epic.

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:11 AM

Re: track

My own Prediction is that I see it going to at least 145 MPH by 5AM..

After that I see it going into a lil colder water and losing some punch.. Hitting landfall at 125-130 MPH.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:12 AM

Re: track

Anyone else notice the complete surrounding of the eye by the color purple in the infrared?

Is that a sign that the center is strengthing and deep?

To everyone in the path, you're in our prayers. Just as I wouldn't wish last season on the East coast, I wouldn't wish Dennis on you folks.

Be safe and let us know what's going on.

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:17 AM

Re: track

Good luck to all in the path of Dennis, and I hope you all stay safe. There's not much else I can say at this point. Whether the landfall occurs at Pensacola further west, this storm looks to do a tremendous amount of damage. Best of wishes to everyone in its path.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:17 AM

Re: track

Nate, I hope you're correct, but the pro's are saying that there's nothing in the near future that will weaken it, unless it slows down itself, then it would succomb to the cooler waters, but not at 14mph. No?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:17 AM

Re: track

The water south of Pcola and Mobile is a bit cooler..also the hurricane winds only extend 40 miles from the center...tight storm,...I am thankful it will hit during the day unlike Ivan...night storms are very frigtening..

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:19 AM

Re: 937 mb!

Quote:

The 1am advisory brings Dennis back to a Cat 4 with 135 mph winds and a central pressure of 937 mb (27.67). This is 1mb lower than when Dennis was south of Cuba with 150 mph winds. I think by 5 am we may be looking at a 150 mph hurricane again.....

ouch!!!!

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:34 AM

On another, more local note...

Looks like another squall is coming through the metro Orlando area. If this one is anything like the one earlier tonight, it could be quite intense.

Not that this will even compare to what will happen NW of us tomorrow. Interesting to watch, nontheless.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:37 AM

shelf waters, ERCs, mid-layer dry air, anything...

remember three years ago watching lili get up to cat 4 in the gulf, then spin down dramatically before hitting louisiana? that sort of thing can always happen.. there are lots of unexpected internal changes a hurricane can undergo and lose a lot of its punch. i personally still think it will be a cat 3 at landfall. already too far west for my central panhandle idea to work... over between biloxi and pensacola the greatest danger exists now.
just say a prayer that it finds some way to spin down in the next 18 hrs or so. it's happened before, it can happen again.
elsewhere.. 98L's organization and convection are improving some. the system is now near 40w.. it's going to be a depression inside of 48hrs, more likely closer to 24. i'm betting this one will threaten the northeastern caribbean around wednesday/thursday.
the new emergent wave has some model support too. got a feeling that the july net tropical cyclone activity is going to be well above whatever the previous record was. as far as that seventeen named storms i took a stab at back in the fall.. jiminy christmas, i thought it possible, but i'm still slack-jawed at the way things are going so far this season.
HF 0637z10july

spctymme

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:38 AM

Re: 937 mb!

when viewiew the latest IR sat views you begin to notice the dreaded buzz saw formation of the storm, which is a true indicator that this is a very serious and powerful force

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:43 AM

Re: 937 mb!

Quote:

when viewiew the latest IR sat views you begin to notice the dreaded buzz saw formation of the storm, which is a true indicator that this is a very serious and powerful force

i noticed that....although the most recent shot shows a change. maybe Dennis has peaked out?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:45 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Anyone have a good Lightning Data links for this area?

Thanks

spctymme

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:46 AM

Re: 937 mb!

we can only hope.....

Girlnascar

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:51 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Just starting to get squally again southeast Orlando too...the one earlier around 7 pm reminded me all too well of last August. Makes me sick to my stomach to think about what the folks North of here will go through again! We are very lucky .............this time!

Please take Care all those north of here.

PS Found this site after Charley ravaged my home and our City Beautiful last year and just before we were hit with Francis-thanks to everyone who visits here it has been a great help and source along with NHC, etc. of information during these trying times.

superfly

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:52 AM

Re: 937 mb!

My guess is that it is undergoing an EWRC. That could be very bad news and could mean it would make landfall at the peak of its power tomorrow.

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:59 AM

Re: 937 mb!

Here's what I don't get. I went to bed after I read the discussion and didn't wait for the new 11p track forcast because the discussion said: "THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY."

I wake up, and see the track forecast shifted: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205821.shtml?3day

... which although it is not shifted much, there is still a western shift. So, why say there is no change when you clearly have a change?

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:00 AM

Re: 937 mb!

When are the new reports expected to circulate?

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:00 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Just went thru it here in Belle Isle by MCO Airport.. heavy rains for about 15 - 20 minutes, some high winds but I would guess not much higher than 40 mph..

Saw this in the discussion tonight:

"E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS COMBINING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
WEST TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM GUADELOUPE AND N-CENTRAL VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W-66W."

Is this another system working up a head?

erimus

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:01 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

I've used this site before. Pretty good...

Lightning Strikes

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:08 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Thanks

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:16 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Ha ha, Did someone leave out something in the code when they refreshed the site?????

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:19 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

The site just went all screwy about 10 min ago. What's going on?

I rebooted my PC just in case..no change.

Formatting is all screwed up.

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:19 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

OK. I rebooted my laptop.. I thought it was mycomputer.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:22 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Nate did that help? Because I did the same thing and no change.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:22 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Maybe someone (John?) shouldn't have bragged about being able to even survive a slashdotting....

In all seriousness, though, I'm sacking it in tonight, and even though I can't call myself terribly religious, I will say a quick prayer for those in the path of Dennis. We made it through 3 dingers last year in Lakeland, and we were just winged. I can't even imagine what's ahead in the next 16 hours. Good luck to all and God bless.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:26 AM

Re: 937 mb!

Kissy I'm posting this just in case you need the info.

If Dennis tracks to the west of you, please review the civil defense maps to find an area near you that you can go to ride out the storm surge.

Here is the link:

http://www.ms.gov/frameset.jsp?URL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.msema.org%2Findex.htm

Page down and click on Evacuation Maps Jackson Co,
then on that new page, at the bottom, maps for both Jackson Co. and Pascagoula.

Then, on the same page, under links, go to Hurricane Evacuation Study, then click on Mississippi study, go down to the Surge Maps paragraph, click on MAPS button,
this will bring you to maps for 1) storm surge, 2) evacuation zone, and 3) evacuation route maps in PDF format which means you'll be able to zoom in.

Note:

Worst case - eye to the west - 20 ft storm surge:

In the western part of the co, it appears that the land right around the I-10 route is above even a CAT 5 storm surge, but only right near the I-10. All south of I-10 will be submerged, and right at the county line, a line of land north of I-10 will be submerged. No buildings there however, just forest for the most part.

In the center part of the county, I-10 will be over submerged land and may not be above water.

In the eastern part of the county, all the land around I-10 will be submerged, even with only a Cat 2.

With a CAT 4 storm surge of 20 ft, ALL of Pascagoula will be submerged. There will be no safe place to go. With CAT 3, very little ground will not be under water, a couple blocks here and there.

If the storm tracks east of you, then you only have to worry about high winds (and we are talking 140mph sustained winds if MOB is hit directly).

Be safe.

palmetto

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:26 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

As things go, it's not horribly bad here in Tallahassee--and am I ever praying that it stays at just being rain and some wind. Still, my significant other has been running around getting sandbags as one of our friends' apartments is promising to flood (water was already at her patio slab when we went to get her and her cats out of there) and there's even more rain to come.

For those more directly in the path of this monster, my prayers are with you.

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:27 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

nope, didnt help..

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:36 AM

Re: Problems with this site

OK so do you think this is a function of the web site and is happening to everyone?

I am getting for the home page no photos, just the header, then below it everything else grey, all the stuff that was on the LH side is in the center, by itself, everything grey.

If there is someone who is seeing the web site with no problems can you please post.

Is there a moderator that can be notified if this is a problem for everyone?

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:39 AM

Re: Problems with this site

No, I think that when someone updated data on the website, they forgot to enter some code or entered it incorrectly. Everyone is seeing the same thing. But that's just me

ShanaTX

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:46 AM

Re: Problems with this site

It's not you. Maybe the server w/ graphics is down. Or is having a bandwidth problem.

Sangre Azul

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:48 AM

Re: Problems with this site

It's the website. The stylesheet (a file that controls some fonts and images) path in the header code is incorrect. It looks like it needs to point to http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stylesheets/flhurricane.css and http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stylesheets/flhurricaneprinter.css . So as to keep this thread on topic, a mod can PM me if you need more info.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:49 AM

Re: Problems with this site

Yup, it's everyone. Site is probably overloaded or the server could have been zapped. It happens during the big storms sometimes. Mike and the rest of the Admins are on it already, no doubt.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:51 AM

Re: Problems with this site

What's up with the new update? Guess it's comming out at 4am.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:06 AM

Re: Going to get some sleep

I heard back from my brother in Pascagoula MS who just went on duty (Sherrif's Dept) at 2am for the storm. I wanted to stay up to let him know all the news about the new track and intensity.

He'll be on duty probably at least through Mon am with no relief.

He said it's already starting to get windy there.

One of the things he said was that many gas stations in Pascagoula are out of gas. I also heard this was a problem eariler with folks trying to get out of Gulf Shores AL area and that the civil defense folks were trying to get some gas down there. Scary.

I also heard not very many evacuated. My brother said actually that a mandatory evac was issued Friday evening along with a curfew but Kissy said she hadn't heard that. I don't think it got out to everyone, somehow. At the time there was nothing on the TV except Pensacola, FL, etc. with a storm track to hit there, so I don't think many in MS thought an evac was necessary.

I also heard not all evacuated from MOB, I think there are around a half million people and I don't think it would have been possible to evac everyone. Actually the gulf coast is so populated that is the case pretty much everywhere.

Well I'll get a little sleep and catch you all tomorrow.

ShanaTX

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:07 AM

Re: latest info

3am forcast/advisory update is out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/100240.shtml

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:10 AM

Re: Problems with this site

145 MPH winds... HOLY SMOKES!!!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:16 AM

Re: Problems with this site

Yes and the pressure dropped an additional 3mb to 934...it may still be strengthening.

OK am really going to go to sleep now - had intended to until I realized the 3am advisory would be out.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:19 AM

Re: Problems with this site

site is experiencing some problems. not sure what's up, but it appears to be cosmetic only. as long as we can all keep communicating, everything's o.k. if not peachy.
the latest public advisory says the winds are 145mph in the text body and then concludes that they're 140mph. minor inconsistency when you think about it... the winds are just really freakin' strong. the eye hitting just west of either mobile or pensacola are the worse case scenarios i can see here. not to take anything away from pascagoula or biloxi... but the cities on the large bays are at a higher risk for surge, and have more property that can be affected (think most people will get out of dodge).
lets just hope an eyewall replacement cycle spins dennis down before it comes ashore tomorrow. lili went from 4 down to 2 in about 12 hrs... it can happen. i don't see anything quite that dramatic happening here.. but still think it can drop to 3 before coming ashore. no way to be certain, but i think dennis is just about done strengthening... the waters it's over shouldn't support much more intensification. don't see the makings of an erc yet, unfortunately. there's still time.
HF 0818z10july

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:39 AM

Re: Problems with this site

They fix the typo..it's officaly 145MPH. There has been alot of funny little typos this storm. They called Dennis, "Danny" a couple of releases ago.

On the site problems, it look like it was cause by alot of refresh at the same time tonight that knocked the page into print mode.

Anyway, I hope everyone who wakes up tomorrow morning around 6AM know that if they are going WILL GO. This isn't the time to play "Stay or Go". Time is up and your plywood house isn't safe anymore.

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:04 AM

Have a computer backup power supply?

Small light bulbs - 7 1/2 watts; with common type screw-in bases can be used after you shut everything else down in an orderly fashion. My APC 1400 backup gives me power for such a small load almost indefinitely. A weather radio from "The Shack" uses only 5W and so do many portable radios. My thoughts and prayers, from the "Gold Coast", go out to all. Even down here, my power was out 2-3 times starting a little before 11PM Friday night(4 hour outage!). FPL is still trimming trees according to usual schedule and didn't expect such an early onset of this tropical season. Who did? If the activity continues at this rate, the predictions of Dr. Gray and his Colorado associates my be more Pollyannaish than Cassandra like. I'm sure that I'll get mine before this dreadful season ends.

As we used to say in Brooklyn; "Wait 'til next year!"

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:33 AM

Recon

7:57 Zulu
932 MB
8 mile circular eye...

27.36N 86.00W

Good luck people
-Mark

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:35 AM

Re: Recon

Nice breeze here in Mobile NNE@11 G21.

geekicane

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:38 AM

Re: Recon

What millibar pressure is the the threshold between cat 4 and 5 generally?

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:41 AM

Re: Recon

Quote:

What millibar pressure is the the threshold between cat 4 and 5 generally?

It really depends on the relative pressures around the storm... but as a general rule of thumb, 925ish would have a shot at having cat 5 winds....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

I use that chart as a method of rule of thumb pressures vs wind velocity...

-Mark
(IANAM, so what I say is not to be taken as anything more than an enthusiast)

geekicane

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:47 AM

Re: Recon

Thanks for the info. At this point, what are the chances that Dennis can arrive as a cat 5? I've heard about weakening in the north gulf of mexico, I've heard about storms not being able to reorganize and strenghen after a long land transverse--it seems that the forecasters are a bit "out to sea." Any insights as to intensity at landfall?

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:01 AM

Re: Recon

Quote:

Thanks for the info. At this point, what are the chances that Dennis can arrive as a cat 5? I've heard about weakening in the north gulf of mexico, I've heard about storms not being able to reorganize and strenghen after a long land transverse--it seems that the forecasters are a bit "out to sea." Any insights as to intensity at landfall?

I wouldn't say they're 'out to sea', Hurricane intensity is one of the most difficult things to project, and really, they've warned people for a while that this storm was not going to be nice. But as far as intensity goes, The pressure has to start levelling off,

5am sat:972mb
11am sat: 967mb
5pm sat: 955mb
11pm sat: 941mb
5am sun: 932mb

40mb drop in 24 hours
I keep saying, 'it can't keep strengthening' but at this point, it's making it's own environment, the only thing that will slow it down in the next 12 hours are ERC and ssts. It's moving to fast to really upwell too much water, and it's still a very small storm. 145mph winds at the 4am cdt advisory...

take this for what it's worth and I'm gritting my teeth as I say this, peak at 150, landfall at 140, either way, it's going to be very unfun for anyone in the path.

-Mark

Talassee

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:24 AM

Re: Recon

Has anyone seen the 5AM NHC Discussion? It's listed on their main page, but when you open it up, it is last night's discussion....

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Sun Jul 10 2005 06:33 AM

Re: Recon

Hurricane Dennis Discussion Number 24

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 10, 2005

Data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the maximum
winds in Dennis have increased to near 125 kt. This is based on
maximum 700 mb flight level winds of 139 and 140 kt from a couple
of passes through the northeast eyewall. Dennis may undergo an
eyewall replacement cycle prior to landfall...which usually results
in some fluctuations in intensity. Water vapor imagery does not
suggest any environmental mid- to upper-level features that could
weaken the hurricane before landfall... however the waters over the
northeast Gulf coastal areas are of somewhat lower oceanic heat
content...which should limit significant additional strengthening.
Dennis is forecast to make landfall as a category four hurricane.
Track forecast reasoning is basically the same as before. The
hurricane is now moving north-northwetward in the steering flow
between a mid-level high to its east and a mid-level trough near
the northwest Gulf Coast. This general motion should continue
through landfall. The official forecast track is similar to the
previous one and is quite close to the dynamical model consensus
and to the Florida State University superensemble track.
Predicted storm surge heights have been adjusted upward due to the
increased intensity of the hurricane.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/0900z 27.8n 86.1w 125 kt
12hr VT 10/1800z 29.6n 87.4w 125 kt
24hr VT 11/0600z 32.0n 89.0w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 11/1800z 34.5n 90.0w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 12/0600z 36.5n 90.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 13/0600z 38.0n 88.5w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 14/0600z 38.5n 86.5w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 15/0600z 38.5n 84.5w 20 kt...remnant low

$$

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:16 AM

Re: Recon

Quote:

What millibar pressure is the the threshold between cat 4 and 5 generally?

Category is determined by the Maximum Sustained wind.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:24 AM

Mobile Area Forecast Discussion~edited

.SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 4 AM TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC
ADVISORY TRACK...WITH A NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE MOBILE/PENSACOLA
AREA. A MAJOR LANDFALLING HURRICANE APPEARS IMMINENT...ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH
OVERNIGHT. IF DENNIS DOES NOT WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL...THIS IS GOING
TO BE A VERY LIFE-THREATENING...EXTREMELY DAMAGING EVENT. CATEGORY 4
HURRICANES PRODUCE MAJOR DAMAGE TO ALL STRUCTURES. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS FROM OUR OFFICE...AS WELL AS
THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MOB/AFDMOB.0507101045

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:26 AM

More Northerly Component now

Looks to have jogged much more northerly over the past few hours. While this wouldn't have meant much yesterday, it is huge today. I still look for a landfall east of Pcola.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:27 AM

Re: Recon

For the first time in days I have to say that the nhc track may be off.. Radar here shows Dennis on almost a due north coarse, and last 2 positions confirm it. This always seems to happen to storms at the northern gulf coast. Being in Pcola, a landfall east may be our saving grace. TV video already shows waves over the Pensacola fishing pier..9 hours before landfall. I wish nobody had to endure this but it would make me brearhe easier if this trend continues. They have already closed the I-10 bridge...(the one they fixed after Ivan)

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:27 AM

RECON

Latest Recon has pressure down 1mb to 931mb.

(Admin)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:28 AM

Re: Recon

Sorry for the website layout issues, one of the image servers croaked so it lost that for a bit. It's rerouted to the others now, so it should be showing properly again. Also the Mobile webcam recorder display is having issue, but the images themselves are being stored. Adjusting image server network around to handle that. image 1 is down, image3 and image6 are having issues, image 2 is down, so it's a bit crazy. Trying to get things back up.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:31 AM

Re: Recon

Please keep us updated as long as you can. My parents are in Marianna and I chose not to go up there due to the forecasts at the time. PM me if you can with any news. I called my parents this morning and they were unaware that the storm had increased in intensity. There may be even more they are not aware of. I have decided to go in afterwards if possible to take them anything they need. Thanks in advance.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:33 AM

Re: Recon

Good Morning all. Things are picking up here in PC. I expect to lose power shortly. And yes...I think a slight wobble/drift to the north is taking place. We will see.

Kal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:33 AM

Re: Recon

I'm seeing the trends on radar and satellite as well Pcola, but obviously it doesn't offer those of us in the Fort Walton Beach area much to smile about. I don't like what I see at the moment.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:36 AM

Re: Recon

The roads are clear in Hattiesburg,MS as of 6 AM CDT.
Traffic is increasing from the AL/ FL areas, but was very light then.

No traffic per se from Gulfport or New Orleans.

If you need to Leave. Please Do So Now.
Before the traffic get heavy.

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:37 AM

Re: Mobile Area Forecast Discussion~edited

This is NOT what I wanted to wake up and see this morning !!! I rode out Frederick, but didn't want to do it again !! Wish me luck

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:40 AM

Re: Mobile Area Forecast Discussion~edited

Here's the latest Hurricane Local Statements from the NWS Offices.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:40 AM

Re: Mobile Area Forecast Discussion~edited

My prayers are with all who are in the path of this storm. May your only discomfort be the wait.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:47 AM

Re: Mobile Area Forecast Discussion~edited

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 edited

600 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

.NOW...

...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN MOBILE...

...ALL HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION AND EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 9 AM.

THROUGH 8 AM...RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE BANDS
BANDS ARE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGER SQUALLS
LIKELY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF RAIN
SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...EACH BAND WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS AS HURRICANE
DENNIS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH AND GREATER WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO COASTAL BALDWIN AND
ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY
WORSE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HURRICANE
DENNIS APPROACHES THE AREA...LANDFALL OF THE CENTER OF DENNIS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FLORIDA...ALABAMA LINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE IS BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL...THIS WILL INCLUDE AREAS
FROM GULF SHORES TO PENSACOLA. IF YOU HAVE NOT EVACUATED FROM A
COASTAL ZONE...PLEASE DO SO IMMEDIATELY.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 2 PM FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS AND
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR
FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS VERY
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING WEATHER SITUATION

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 07:59 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Well, Pensacola is a ghost town. We're all ready and hunkered down. Pray for us. It's going to be a LONG day. I'm really worried about the aftermath. This is stronger than Ivan. Unbelieveable for early July!

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:06 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

The Mobile local CBS station has tapped in to the city's public safety cameras. I am amazed there is still a good bit of traffic on the roads. I hope they all get where they're going soon.

Kal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:09 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Just think SirCane, over four months of hurricane season to go for all of us on the Emerald Coast...

I was more than a little surprised to hear that the Pensacola Civic Center was serving as a shelter again. It didn't fare so well during Ivan as I recall, and this storm may be exponentially worse for Escambia county.

Pensacola101

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:11 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

A definite jump to the north just happend. I hope it's not just a wobble.

MichaelA

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:12 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

First vis satellite pic is showing a very intense core. Prayers for you who are in the path.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:13 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

The only good thing to come out of this is that maybe the cane will take the heat out of the Gulf so there will not be a repeat of this in this season. Then we will only have to worry about the east coast for the rest of the season.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:13 AM

RECON

MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 11:40:30 Z
Pressure again down 1 mb...to 930mb.
Eye 8 nautical miles in diameter.

The wind listed is the Flight Level Wind.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:14 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

If I recall, the main problem with the Civic Center was the air conditioners on the roof that tore off. I think they have been reenforced when they were replaced. However, I would not want to ride out a Cat 4 in a building with that profille. I am not sure how well it will hold up. Granted, I do not know how many buildings there are in the area that can withstand a direct hit by this storm.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:15 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Quote:

The only good thing to come out of this is that maybe the cane will take the heat out of the Gulf so there will not be a repeat of this in this season. Then we will only have to worry about the east coast for the rest of the season.

Any reprieve would only be for a week or two. We are still very close to peak heating. By August, water temps will likely be back to where they were.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:16 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

weather channel is calling this a northward track and not wobble? what are mets saying?

Kal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:17 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

I hate to say it...believe me, I really hate to say it...but recent radar and satellite trends seem to point to a landfall somewhere between Gulf Breeze and Destin.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:18 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

I am not a met and have not seen TWC but by radar it appears to be a north mvt. Some prior forecast thinking may verify after all.

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:19 AM

Re: Recon

Quote:

For the first time in days I have to say that the nhc track may be off.. Radar here shows Dennis on almost a due north coarse, and last 2 positions confirm it.

It's almost like they changed the forecast path 'by mistake' at 5AM EDT. I mean, the discussion said there was no change, and it doesn't look like there should have been a change... but, it shifted west some. I really don't understand why they did that.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:19 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

but cantore is there , it never hits him

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:22 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

JK just said it is not a wobble but a true north mvt. Will it last is the question.

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:23 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Looks bad with that movement for Pensacola. Unbelieveable.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:24 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

It is looking like it is not a wobble but a true turn to the north. May spare Pensacola the brunt. However, Navarre to east of Destin may be the bullseye if this movement continues. Hopefully, everyone has evacuted from these areas. This is going to destroy the roads into and out of many of these areas as the ocean washes out parts of the barrier islands. This is not a storm to be riding out.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:29 AM

Still NNW

Still moving NNW....there was a wobble due north, but it appears to be starting another wobble back nw in the last few radar frames. Still think landfall is further east than forecast..probably around Ft Walton/Destin.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:30 AM

Re: Dennis' North Movement

Quote:

I am not a met and have not seen TWC but by radar it appears to be a north mvt. Some prior forecast thinking may verify after all.

Definite northerly movement the last 2 hours. Take a look at the color infared - the CDO on the west side of the storm is narrowing and the cloud shield is becoming asymmetrical. A sure sign of upper level W-SW shearing. This is good and bad news. Good in that it may start to weaken him a little, bad in that it may result in a consistent N or perhaps even a N-NE movement to the coast. Looks bad between Ft Walton Bch and Panama City.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:30 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Not wishing this on anyone; but a best case scenario might be if the center can go in around Grayton Beach or Seagrove Beach. This area would leave the least population and buldings at risk to the core of the storm. Damage would still be severe and Panama City would be hit pretty hard. No really good place for this monster to go except away.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:30 AM

Re: Still NNW

I agree, just ever so slightly moving back NNW.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:32 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

morning all.... I still think it has a slight westerly component to the motion and not due north, not looking at the latest radar loops.... my opinion only.... looks to be heading directly to Pensacola... what side of the eye wall it gets yet to be determined.... eye wall on radar looks to be about 10 miles or so in diameter, which is where the 145 miles per hour winds would be.... not a very good place to be so if you have any change of being in it, and you can leave, I'd highly recommend it .... or you better be in a damn strong building or house...

tides at Biloxi look to be about normal, however, we have these glassy two foot waves breaking.... this only occurs with an approaching strong cane off to our SE....

good luck to all .....

StormKrone

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:33 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Hi gang,

Long time...no see.. Just watching, waiting, and reading from over here in Tallahassee..where it is just overcast and rainy.

Have to say, been waiting for the Cantore comments .<g> Thank you!!!

To everyone closer to this monster.... my heart, my prayers and my best wishes are with you. Take care, because I am going to be counting noses when all this is over..

Dee, the StormKrone

stormchazer

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:34 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Wanted to add my concerns and prayers for all who have been and will be effected by Dennis.

Any good thing is often bad for someone. If Dennis is moving North then some of the larger Population centers still recovering from Ivan could be spared. I know that does not say much for Ft Walton, Destin and other areas East.

Again my prayers to you all.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:35 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Good morning everyone, I hope all got some sleep because this could be a bumpy day...

I have to agree with some of the posters that the movement is more northerly rather than a NNW movement....But if Dennis continues a Northerly track and stays that course inland, there's gonna be a flurry of changing watches and warnings further inland from Montgomery to Atlanta.

One thing I'm wondering, what time is this monster expected to make landfall and how close to high tide is it supposed to hit?

Again it bears repeating, if you are to the east of the eye, it is imperative to still watch this storm like a hawk as the right front quadrant of the storm is the most dangerous and causes possible tornadoes and heavy rains...

Also tidal flooding in Madiera Beach, FL.....

God Speed to everyone in PCB to Moblie and everyone in the path....

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:36 AM

ten hours

it still has time to do the ERC thing and spin down to manageable levels. intensity changes with these strong ones are unpredictable... it would be a lot nicer to see the winds drop 20 mph before landfall. that 1mb pressure fall since the last advisory suggests that it's near the upper threshold it can get to... hopefully the only thing that dennis can do from here is weaken. i'm not wanting to see that perpendicular impact effect that accelerates the winds and tightens the core that joe b talks about. not at all.
God forbid that the core moves over pensacola. lots more to break there than port charlotte.
we'll probably have an emily tomorrow, in other news. misery loves company.
HF 1336z10july

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:40 AM

Re: ten hours

there goes cantore again,just on live, warning ms and al that the sky will fall upon landfall, he's more doomsday than the accuweather guy joe b. nhc has surprised me and nailed this forcast thus far, I'm sticking with them and agree with the soon to see west nw wobble back

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:44 AM

Re: ten hours

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in this area. For my job, I handle computer systems in my companies offices up in the Florida Panhandle. I have been there after almost all of the major hurricanes since Erin to hit the area. Opal and Ivan were the worst I had seen. I fear this storm may push past them. Fortunately, I just about everyone I know has evacuated to either Tallahassee or Jacksonville.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:45 AM

Re: ten hours

is this new data ?

URNT12 KNHC 101207
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/11:43:00Z
B. 28 deg 23 min N
086 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2515 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 134 deg 131 kt
G. 49 deg 009 nm
H. EXTRAP 930 mb
I. 9 C/ 3046 m
J. 21 C/ 3008 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1604A DENNIS OB 19
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 11:40:30 Z

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:47 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:48 AM

Re: ten hours

down to 131kts....eyewall replacement?

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:50 AM

Re: ten hours

That is not a complete report. Note the highest winds parameter and lowest pressure is marked as "N"

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:52 AM

Re: ten hours

pressure drop 1 mb too

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:53 AM

Re: ten hours

looks like a right hook

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:57 AM

Re: ten hours

BTW, not to distract, Joe B thinks there are 2 more potential landfalling systems over the next few weeks. He may be hard headed on forecasting landfall of systems; but he has been good on his heads up on potential systems this year.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:58 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Quote:

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...

I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:59 AM

Re: ten hours

Quote:

BTW, not to distract, Joe B thinks there are 2 more potential landfalling systems over the next few weeks. He may be hard headed on forecasting landfall of systems; but he has been good on his heads up on potential systems this year.

run the various loops and you'll see.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:59 AM

Re: ten hours

yes run the mm5 and u can see them both, the first, 98l is gonna be a whopper

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 08:59 AM

Re: ten hours

Well, Dr Steve basically said that teh eyewall will be coming right over my house. He said it should still turn left before landfall but I've never seen one do that. I am 30 miles west of Ft Walton so a right hook would be fine for me right now. Oh well. We are ready. Its amazing how many people returned when this went to a cat1 and the nhc said it would not get back to 3. They are not ready. Lets keep our fingers crossed this weekens a bit before landfall.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:00 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

think daniel said traffic on 98 and 49 from wilmer to hattiesburg and on up towards jackson was not too heavy

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:00 AM

Re: ten hours

TWC just mentioned a very important item that should be repeated.
Do not run a generator indoors. It is not even wise to run it in an attached garage. However, if you do run one in an attached garage(which I do sometimes), make sure you have a CO2 detector above the door to your garage and in other areas of the house(which I also do).

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:00 AM

morning all

The buoy south of Pensacola has started to report 30' wave heights.

Unfortunately the buoy south of Dauphin Island, which you'd really like to see, doesn't seem to be reporting.

Wow this storm is still intensifying...I can't get a handle on what it will be doing in the hours just before landfall when it has had all day over the Gulf.

NHC said the only thing to slow it down was cooler water temps. Yesterday though showed warmer temps right along the shore (I used Oceanweather because it is easy to read with all the different shades of orange). That showed yesterday a band of warmer temps above and around the barrier islands and to the west of the hurricane S of LA. Maybe that isn't a good SST map to go by?

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/sst.html

I don't wish this on anyone, but I'm relieved this morning to see the Nward movement because otherwise MS coastline would be in trouble. Still awful that someone has to get hit with this storm.

Waiting to see the first daylight sat view...looks like very white cloud tops around the eye, the buzzsaw signature, very impressive eye.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:01 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Personally I would leave now and head West/NW.

Pensacola101

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:03 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Local mets are coming on and talking with the NHC, that the north jump will more than likely be a wobble. They are saying that stronger storms are forming on the west side of the eye and that should pull it back to a NW, NNW trend and that is not good for us here in Pensacola. This will put the eye directly onto us.

I hope they are wrong though.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:04 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

I would say if they do evacuate, west would be the way to go. If they are going to go, they have to levae now. I would not suggest leaving an hour from now. All the bridges will probably be closed shortly. So going Northwest would be best.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:05 AM

Re: ten hours

joe's cocky and all, but he's tops when it comes to pattern recognition. yeah, we're gonna be talking about that low at 40w a heck of a lot after dennis is up near paducah.
speaking of which, more globals than not are showing dennis doing a loop/stall scenario inland over the lower midwest and midsouth. this thing will probably be causing flooding all week. that could end up being just as big of a story.
HF 1405z10july

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:05 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Quote:

Quote:

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...

I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....

Go west as far as you can

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:06 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Well I don't think anyone knows exactly where this is going to land, and you wouldn't want to be in Grand Bay if there was any chance of flooding, that's for sure.

If the eye lands to the east, then it will mainly be a lot of wind to deal with.

If the eye lands closer or to the west (looks unlikely now) then much better not to be in Grand Bay, due to storm surge. I just hope everyone got out of that area, and also Foley, Gulf Shores area.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:07 AM

Re: ten hours

Quote:

Its amazing how many people returned when this went to a cat1 and the nhc said it would not get back to 3. They are not ready.

It was forecasted as a Cat 3 possible Cat 4 last night at 5PM. No one had an excuse to be in that area over night, let alone today. How can people not be ready?

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:08 AM

It's not to late to leave Mobile~8 AM

Quote:

I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....

Two hours ago, last time I checked the roads, traffic was very light...but increasing from the Mobile area...i.e. westbound Hwy 98 into Hattiesburg.
Other option at this point is i-10 west toward New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Houston.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:08 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

wilmer area to hattiesburg to jxn is west north west with no bridge closures to fear if you leave soon

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:12 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

No reason why this thing wont go CAT 5.....bad news

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:13 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...

I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....

Go west as far as you can

Well the only way west of Wilmar is to take 98 up past Lucedale to Hattiesburg. Going that way you could get hit with very high winds because there is an inland hurricane warning for that area.

Many gas stations are out of gas around that area.

You don't want to get stuck on that tiny highway without gas.

Plan carefully if you decide to get out to Hattiesburg (or maybe Montgomery). There also won't be any hotel rooms available.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:13 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Quote:

wilmer area to hattiesburg to jxn is west north west with no bridge closures to fear if you leave soon

I think most of the motel rooms north of the area are full. Possibly to Memphis.
Louisiana and Texas may be a better solution for Mobile area evacuees right now. Some left the New Orleans area so there could be motels rooms available.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:13 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

With the latest update at 9am, the northerly track at 16mph, that really has me worried that this fast moving thing is really gonna hammer it's landfalling area.

CNN was saying that the hurricane force winds will probably keep up when it makes inland from 50-100 miles from the center.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:14 AM

Re: ten hours

Quote:

Well, Dr Steve basically said that teh eyewall will be coming right over my house. He said it should still turn left before landfall but I've never seen one do that. I am 30 miles west of Ft Walton so a right hook would be fine for me right now. Oh well. We are ready. Its amazing how many people returned when this went to a cat1 and the nhc said it would not get back to 3. They are not ready. Lets keep our fingers crossed this weekens a bit before landfall.

I dunno about the west turn. Seems counter to what you might expect. If u look at the water vapor, Dennis appears to be getting influenced by some w-sw shear from the ULL south of LA. Notice the more asymmetrical cloud shield.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:19 AM

Severe Weather

I'm seeing frequent Tornado Warnings from Florida.
Please keep your radios and TVs on a local EBS station or turn on your WeatherRadio.
3 warnings in the last hour from the Tampa NWS County warning areas.
Latest Warning from Tampa NWS An hour old, but still severe weather in the area.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 807 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 830 AM EDT * AT 807 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO OVER LARGO...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT... LARGO BY 805 AM EDT. CLEARWATER BY 810 AM EDT. DUNEDIN BY 815 AM EDT. PALM HARBOR BY 820 AM EDT. TARPON SPRINGS BY 825 AM EDT. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:20 AM

Re: On another, more local note...

Quote:

CNN as saying that the hurricane force winds will probably keep up when it makes inland from 50-100 miles from the center.

CNN should listen to the NHC better.

"Hurricane force winds associated with Dennis may occur as far as 150 to 175 miles inland along the track of the hurricane."

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:20 AM

Re: Severe Weather

Yeah, we (Manatee county) had one around 7:30 this morning. Nothing since though.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:25 AM

Flood Tide Prediction Charts

anyone have the link of the site that has flood tide prediction charts for like 10-20 sites in the gulf, all listed on one screen? thanks!

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:26 AM

inland

fortunately southwest alabama is rural once you get inland.. in terms of people and property there is less to be threatened. no comfort for folks in places like atmore, brewton, and grove hill.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:27 AM

Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts

http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:29 AM

Re: inland

NHC will shift the track slightly to the east next adv.

Per JK speaking w/ the NHC.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:31 AM

Family is hunkering down...

Well they have decided to hunker down and stay put. Fear of no gas, high traffic volume and time stuck on the road made their choice. Shelters in Mobile are full also. Thanks for the quick info I was able to pass along to them. Does anyone know if cell phone service will be interrupted in the affected areas?

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:33 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

Cell service depends largely on the ability for the towers to remain up.

Another concern is high volume. For 2 days before and about 36 hours after Frances, I had a difficult time getting calls to go out on my cell - everything was busy.

YMMV SPSFD (Your mileage may vary, see participating stores for details)

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:40 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

Quote:

Cell service depends largely on the ability for the towers to remain up.

Another concern is high volume. For 2 days before and about 36 hours after Frances, I had a difficult time getting calls to go out on my cell - everything was busy.

YMMV SPSFD (Your mileage may vary, see participating stores for details)

Do they have text messaging capabilities? If so, that might be a good option. Still won't work if service is out - but - text messages will be sent when the system is available again (as opposed to calls that have to be re-dialed until you can get through). My prayers are with all in the path.

Karen

Great Idea!

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:42 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

if the westward turn is going to happen it would be soon as the build up of storms on the western wall is what they keep saying may influence the westward shift again. how far east did the nhc say they may adjust and does that keep it heading north upon landfall?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kevx.shtml
shows clear nw float but water vapor makes it look n?

birdwomn

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:42 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

So you don't panic after the storm: I was able to reach my Mom in Pensacola immediately after the storm then she lost phone service for several days, cell and land. It scared me to death. Bottom line phone service will be spotty at best. Often they could call out and not get incoming calls or vice versa. Or the phone would not ring, but if they picked up, it would connect. Fun stuff. DO tell them to try text messages to let you know they are ok or plans they have.

Just keep trying periodically if you can't get them. Eventually you will get through.

I am praying for them and everyone else in the path of this monster.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:56 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

After charley we diddn't have phone service for over a month with Nextel. However, some other companys got up to speed faster. Your ability to reach them may depend on what service they have.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 09:58 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

Cell phone service will be around during and to some extent after the storm. The problem lies not with the towers, although some will fail b/c they are probably not designed for 145mph winds plus gusts especially the old ones, but the antennas they really take a beating in the winds. They move or fall off which will disrupt the network becuase they are not transmitting their signal in the right direction. However, if a tower/antenna site survives (which most do) they will have about 4-12 hours of emergency backup power (generators, batteries) then they fail. That is why most can use a cell phone during and usually one day after the event and then service dies until the main power is restored or the wireless company adds more gas to the generator. They only caveat is capacity...if there are 1 millions calls into a network designed for 500K calls...there will be problems. Good luck to your family...I really feel for all those folks up there!

stormchazer

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:00 AM

Re: inland

Probably but Dennis looks to be going more NW again in last few frames. I guess he is stair stepping.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:01 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

FEMA and the wireless companies also have portable sites that they will have on standby to deploy after the storm. They call them COWs (Cells On Wheels).

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:02 AM

Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts

Quote:

http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/

thanks Daniel, there's another one I'm still looking for.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:03 AM

Re: inland

Hurricanes always seem to move in these wobble steps.
But when it gets close to landfall, a wobble can make a difference
of course on where the eye makes landfall.

ptbies

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:04 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

Usually I just sit back and read but this one I do know about! I went to Port Charlotte after the storm and then living in Vero Beach went through 2 last year. This is what I learned. Have plenty of gas and ice on hand, you will not be able to get it for a couple of days. If you can it will be gone fast. If you want FEMA to reimburse you for a generator do not buy it the day before an event, they will not pay!?? Nextel is used by emergency groups so they may lock you out. We lost two towers on top ot that. Nextel and other companys will give you a break on your payments if you call them! If you have a generator and can run your frig. frozen gatorade is a treat!! Oh, don't forget propane for your gril and a fan. It gets really hot down here! Surviving the next 2 wks after the storm can be the hardest.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:05 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

Quote:

Well they have decided to hunker down and stay put. Fear of no gas, high traffic volume and time stuck on the road made their choice. Shelters in Mobile are full also. Thanks for the quick info I was able to pass along to them. Does anyone know if cell phone service will be interrupted in the affected areas?

Main thing will be if the cell phone towers stay up.

Last year with IVAN my brother was able to call me to let me know when he was off the street and off duty and directed to go to the nearest shelter and hunker down...thank goodness.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:09 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

Thats a great idea about text messaging. Im calling them now to tell them to do just that.

Thanks for the tip!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:09 AM

Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts

Quote:

Quote:

http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/

thanks Daniel, there's another one I'm still looking for.

Try going to each state's web site.

On the MS web site I found all the storm surge and evac maps for the coastal counties.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:14 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

My prayers and thoughts go out to all that are in the path of this monster.Just be smart be safe and do the best that you can.Help will be on they way,soon after the storm.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:18 AM

Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts

Looks like the board lost a style sheet again.

*edit*

As soon as I posted that, it came back - go figure.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:19 AM

wave heights

Wave heights on that buoy SSE of Pensacola now approaching 35 ft.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:23 AM

Re: wave heights

Some of you might not be aware of these guys:

http://hurricanetrack.com/

They had some oustanding video of Charlie last year. They are hurricane chasers.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:26 AM

Direction

Whatever wobble there was is gone...it looks like it is back on course for Pensacola. Ouch!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:27 AM

Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts

Quote:

Looks like the board lost a style sheet again.

*edit*

As soon as I posted that, it came back - go figure.

Same thing happened to me, only it came back between the initial post and the preview.

Good view of the eye on Tallahasee short-range loop:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kevx.shtml

Looks like the area with very high winds has become even more compacted.

Ignoring all the wobbles still looks to be heading generally in NW direction.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:31 AM

Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts

what's up with the Pensacola data not available?
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=TAEOSOTLH&version=0

anyone have links to sites that are up?

(Admin)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:34 AM

Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts

Quote:

Looks like the board lost a style sheet again.

*edit*

As soon as I posted that, it came back - go figure.

Yep, some of our image servers are down, so I had to shuffle things around. Down to 2 at the moment (From 5). Hope they hold, the main server can't handle it alone.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:36 AM

Re: Direction

whoa... no pics. bandwidth issues do not permit those. links are ok. -HF

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:37 AM

Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts

Well, start by disabling the avatars and smilies. They aren't much on the size-load, but they are definitely the largest amount of requests per page.

An ounce of prevention and all that.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:39 AM

Re: Direction

I pitty anyone who is hunkering down in the many wood framed homes and buildings up there!

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:39 AM

Re: Direction

At this speed, it should be a daytime hurricane, which is good. It is far scarier at night... if that is any consolation.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:41 AM

Re: ten hours

Quote:

BTW, not to distract, Joe B thinks there are 2 more potential landfalling systems over the next few weeks. He may be hard headed on forecasting landfall of systems; but he has been good on his heads up on potential systems this year.

I have been searching all over for the link to the navy site, anyone have it?

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:42 AM

Re: Direction

Foxnews is showing an incredible feed from the Pier in Pensacola

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:43 AM

Re: Direction

wood framed bldgs? older construction, maybe. whatever ivan didn't get.. well, dennis is going to have its way with it.
HF 1543z10july

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:43 AM

Re: Direction

Looks like Suddath has picked his spot to continue feed. http://www.hurricanetrack.com/live.html

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:45 AM

Re: wave heights

Quote:

Some of you might not be aware of these guys:

http://hurricanetrack.com/

They had some oustanding video of Charlie last year. They are hurricane chasers.

Can't believe these guys. They are putting themselves right in the path of a storm surge just for some pics of tiny waves lapping at a beach house.

When storm surge comes in, it comes in fast just like the water from a tsunami.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:46 AM

Re: wave heights

They don't stay in the vehicle - they leave it there to collect data - like "dorothy" in the movie Twister.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:48 AM

Re: wave heights

This image struck me.
Outer rain bands coming onto Pensacola beach, yesterday:

http://lightningboy.com/Hurricane_Dennis/DSC00777.jpg

AdvAutoBob

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:48 AM

Re: Hurricanetrack

Sudduth's wind tower is about to get its first REAL field test...

To Rick and all of you in Dennis' path, you're all in my family's prayers. The only upside I can see is at least landfall is during daylight hours.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:48 AM

Re: wave heights

Actually, they are in the vehicle and driving around

(Admin)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:50 AM

Re: wave heights

Mark needs to get that thing up and get out of there pretty soon, he doesn't have much time. Landfall is going to be a little bit sooner in the afternoon now.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:50 AM

Re: wave heights

Quote:

Actually, they are in the vehicle and driving around

But they will leave it and go back to the police station for shelter.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 10:53 AM

flood info from Pascagoula

Just talked to my brother in Pascagoula. He's been on duty since 2am and quite busy but luckily I caught him just at the right time to talk to him for a couple minutes.

He said the county shut down the computer system so he has no way to get direct info about the hurricane, but he knows the barometric pressure must be really low, because of how much the water is already rising (under areas of low barometric pressure the water will rise up like a dome). He said they are already at 7 feet or more in some areas, and already they are getting calls from folks who are in trouble because of the high water. Remember they are getting winds from the N right now.

Also...the eye is clearly visible on MOB radar now:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmob.shtml

I told him I'd give him a call and let him know if it hooked west to make landfall west of the FL/AL border. While we were talking I didn't think that would be the case but wow it is really moving NW now and it is moving pretty fast. If it doesn't hook west or go too far west then they won't have to worry because they won't get too much wind or rain.

superfly

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:00 AM

Re: flood info from Pascagoula

Outer eyewall has formed from radar loops. This could weaken significantly before landfall.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:04 AM

Re: wave heights

Quote:

Mark needs to get that thing up and get out of there pretty soon, he doesn't have much time. Landfall is going to be a little bit sooner in the afternoon now.

Post on the website says they are going to head east as far as they can to setup the tower and get away, webcam will be down while they setup. www.hurricanetrack.com

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:06 AM

Re: wave heights

A little late for this, as the conversation has ended, but...
Believe it or not, these storm chasers are doing the community a service, in my opinion. People need some form of closure with these things. My reconciling with Charley was done through my film. I would then show it to other people, see their emotional impact, and see that they now finally understood. This is most important for the people to evacuate. I will never forget my neighbor coming home that afternoon to survey the damage. When she saw all her windows broken, her roof in shambles, and everything in the house trashed, she started screaming in the street. People don�t understand how this could ever happen to them. When they see my movie, it is like, oh, now I understand.
Another group of storm chasers�.Jeff Gammons, Jim Edds, and Douglas Kiesling , among other guys with their team usually produce some pretty good imagery. I don�t know how long they can keep it up, but they have this �intercepting� business down to a science. However if there is one thing that we have learned about hurricanes, it is to expect the unexpected. I hope no one gets killed in one of these things, because it will probably end it (and worse, it will be on film).

The films storm chasers create generally mean a lot to a community that was hit. That is why the aforementioned team made over $100,000 in just our little town.

http://www.bnvn.com/hurricane_charley/

http://www.extremestorms.com/

http://lightningboy.com/

richisurfs

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:06 AM

Re: flood info from Pascagoula

Mike...I know you're working hard to keep this thing going. It's running great considering whats going on.Thanks alot!!!!!!

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:07 AM

eyewall behavior

not very predictable, those inner core changes. yeah, it could spin down some... but i dunno. that inner eyewall hasn't weakened a whole lot... there's maybe half of an outer eyewall.. and it's approaching the coast. if i had to guess, i wouldn't call on it to spin down below cat 4 status, or the pressure to get back above 940... but i'm not being optimistic. i was going with a 3 earlier but had just about lost hope on that... with it accelerating and coming in perpendicular to the coast, it should more or less keep stable to impact. that'll be in about 4 1/2 hrs.
HF 1606z10july

GLT

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:09 AM

Re: Family is hunkering down...

After Charlie and Frances the land line phones worked for several hours after we lost power - seems they have their own batteries which then died. 4-6 hours.

Verizon cell worked the whole time.

(Please don't stop your prayers for those in the path just because the storm is stlll coming. There will be many miracles, maybe one because of your prayer.)

This makes me feel so bad it hurts.

GLT

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:09 AM

Re: flood info from Pascagoula

There's a chance of it, but we don't know where in the cycle it'll occur. Will one happen before landfall? We can only hope, but it's not a given.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:09 AM

Re: wave heights

I have to agree, the more coverage of these storms, the more informed folks will be, and increase preparedness now and in the future.

BabyCat

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:15 AM

lysis photo

Very impressive photo

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:16 AM

Re: Direction

I would have to disagree, but then again it's merely prefrence. A hurricane's damage would be much more brazen during the day (when you could see it), rather then night when you have no clue what's happening. A crude metaphor would be getting shot and watching it happen.

drcrazibob

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:20 AM

Re: Direction

Well, Good luck to all up there! I have a Cousin in Ft. Walton Beach that has a trailer home, however he and his wife and child are staying in Orlando right now. I'm thinking they'll be coming home to a house boat.

Someone told me there were 2 Lows coming off of Africa?

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:24 AM

Re: Direction

Quote:

Well, Good luck to all up there! I have a Cousin in Ft. Walton Beach that has a trailer home, however he and his wife and child are staying in Orlando right now. I'm thinking they'll be coming home to a house boat.

Someone told me there were 2 Lows coming off of Africa?

Yup,2 more.

Good chance of developing also.What a year this is going to be!!!!!

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:25 AM

Re: Direction

Yeah, they will take a look at what Dennis did and turn around and go the other way so they don't get the blame!

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:31 AM

Re: Direction

Bay County bridges will be closed in about an hour due to expected sustained 55mph winds.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:32 AM

Re: Direction

well, still have power here in gulf breeze. winds probably 60 mph. house is shaking a bit but i am hoping this is no worse than ivan..radar looks like a Pensacola pass or al/fl border landfall

B.C.Francis

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:37 AM

Re: Direction

Correct me if I`m wrong , looking at the radar loop out of Pensacola, it looked like Dennis might hit west of town.......and the two waves out in the Atlantic bares watching. The one that just came off of Africa looks pretty impressive, the one in the mid Atlantic has some convection this morning and a swirl......Trackin time again next week it looks like.......I pray for those of you in Dennis`s path...Be safe...Weather

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:38 AM

Re: Direction

PCola where exactly are you in Gulf Breeze? Are you on the coast?

VolusiaMike

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:38 AM

Re: Direction

Based on information via HurrTrack, you should be getting sustained winds of around 50 MPH from 55 degrees in Escambia County.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:44 AM

Re: Direction

From experience Keith... I would much rather go through a daytime hurricane than a nighttime one. But perhaps this is a thing of personal preference. It sucks either way... but at least you know what is going on in the day. I guess it doesn�t matter in the bathroom closet.

LadyStorm

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:47 AM

Re: Direction

From the 3 hurricanes I have gone through I would say going through them in the day hours in less scarey than having them happen at night. I like to know what is happening, I hate being left in the dark (pun not intended)

MaryAnn

Quote:

From experience Keith... I would much rather go through a daytime hurricane than a nighttime one. But perhaps this is a thing of personal preference. It sucks either way... but at least you know what is going on in the day. I guess it doesn�t matter in the bathroom closet.

(Weather Drama Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:48 AM

hey ya'll

Still here...just balmy and breezy inland about 20 miles...anticipate things will deteriorate rapidly...

appears movement will oscillate....and now where the eye comes in...everything to the right of it for twenty miles...will be the brunt of things...

boat may survive this...unless it tracks a little bit more west than it is...

doing fine right now...wierd that it's coming in during the day...can't remember that happening in the last 10 hurricanes....will it stall and come in tonight?...

still some suprises, I think, with the ultimate landfall....

garrison

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:50 AM

Re: eyewall behavior

looking at the latest NWS radar loop, looks like the eyewall has weakened in the last half hr

B.C.Francis

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:53 AM

Re: hey ya'll

Good thing your not out in the Gulf near moored bouy 42036, it had peak wave height of 33.5 in the last hour.........Weatherchef

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 11:57 AM

Re: eyewall behavior

Looking at visible, there some thunderstorms clouds extending beyond the general height of the other tops to the SW corner of the eye. Most likely torndaic , but then again it would be offly difficult to notice a tornado when you're experiencing a hurricane with 140 mph winds.

Edit -- Keith234, it's very rare to see any tornadic activity within the eyewall of the storm itself. Conditions just do not support it. It is likely that this is where the strongest winds may be found at this time, particularly as they translate down to the surface, but not an indicator of tornadoes. Radar data -- particularly velocity products -- need to be used to look for tornadic activity, not satellite. --Clark

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:01 PM

Re: hey ya'll

Quote:

Good thing your not out in the Gulf near moored bouy 42036, it had peak wave height of 33.5 in the last hour.........Weatherchef

You mean 42039 (south of Pensacola). 42036 is south of Tampa and had max wave height of around 24 ft earlier this morning.

Actually that data is two hours old...it says 9:50 but if you look above it says the times are one hour older, so that was at 9am.

Sure wish the buoy south of Dauphin Island (42040) was working.

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:01 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Local Weatherman from Mobile-Pensocola area stated the rainbands arent as bad as expected and most likely wont be as Tornadic as one thought. Thats a good sign, also Winds arent as a bda as expected either. I wouldnt be surprised if it gets downgraded to a 3 and maybe even fall apart sooner then expected once it hits land. The cooler water seems to be doing damage.

Steve777

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:03 PM

Re: Direction

Having still damage to fix 11 months later (slept in living room 6 months) I am so sorry to see what folks will be facing again. i'm like in shock . FIVE hurricanes to hit Florida in less than 11 months.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:06 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Nate, I would wait to hear that from NHC...sounds like some of these TV Mets are winging it right now....also...looks like it will be a direct hit on Pensacola...looks like Gulf Breeze and Navarre area will be hammered.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:08 PM

vortex msg

the latest message had 937mb as the central pressure and the max flight level winds at 93kt. the wind sample is probably low, but the pressure is going back up, which is good. it will probably be a 3 when it gets to the coast.. but still stronger than ivan incrementally. the eyewall convection is a little weaker, and the satellite presentation isn't as good as earlier... three hours to go or so.
HF 1708z10july

BabyCat

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:08 PM

Re: hey ya'll

That buoy has been out for awhile. I tried to look at it a while back.
The waves are really picking up around the eye this morning.

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:14 PM

Re: vortex msg

Also seems like the Eyewall and Storm surge arent as big or as destructive as Ivan.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:18 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Nate -- he's right on the rain bands -- they are not nearly as tornadic as seen with last years storms, meaning most areas may have dodged the bullet with that one. The orientation of the rain bands more east-west than north-south may be helping with this, but that's just a hunch. The tropical storm force winds are every bit as much as advertised, however. Remember that the hurricane force winds are still offshore -- this is not one of last year's monster-sized storms -- and believe me, their full force will be felt soon enough.

Tallahassee -- almost 200 miles from the storm and well inland -- has seen gusts over tropical storm force thus far today, with sustained winds continually over 30mph. Storm-total rainfall is nearing 5" in many spots, with 7"+ a good bet once all is said and done. US 98 between Panacea and Apalachicola -- something like 30 miles -- is closed, with water over the roadway in many areas. Observing stations in both Pensacola and Apalachicola are down, with the Tallahassee and Panama City systems struggling to keep up sometimes. And -- most of this is well-removed from the storm!

Bottom line: the worst is still yet to come.

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:20 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Yes, thanks for reminding me. That's why severe thunderstorms the-" windy" kind don't have tornados. Isn't there a term used to describe area's of strong wind that translate down to the surface in hurricanes-the word vector comes to mind but that doesn't seem to make sense? They were attributed with massive damage in isolated area's associated with Andrew. Does anyone know?.

You are thinking of either downdrafts or microbursts, I believe. They are most common with continental thunderstorms, but can be seen with hurricanes as they make landfall and begin to weaken. --Clark

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:22 PM

Re: vortex msg

Nate, again -- the storm is still offshore, including the hurricane-force winds, and is a smaller storm than Ivan. Storm surge will not be a major factor for a little time yet -- and is already affecting other areas, as mentioned in the last post. The eyewall doens't have to be huge for things to be bad -- it just may narrow the scope of the damage (and concentrate it, too) to a smaller area.

GEORGIA GIRL

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:25 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

I MUST ASK THIS QUESTION. MY HUSBAND IS SUPPOSED TO HEAD FOR ATLANTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I HEARD ONE OF THE NEWS STATIONS MENTION THAT ATLANTA MAY RECEIVE SOME PRETTY ROUGH WEATHER. IF THAT IS THE CASE, I WOULD MUCH RATHER HIM REARRANGE HIS SCHEDULE AND STAY IN SE GA, ESPECIALLY IF HE WILL BE DRIVING THROUGH THE WORST OF IT. ANY ONE HAVE ANY ADVICE FOR ME? I REALLY APPRECIATE IT!

garrison

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:30 PM

Re: vortex msg

im suprised that Max wind of 93knots, and at 260, didnt they sample the e and N side?

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:31 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Atlanta will be on the NE corner, but Like they stated Rainbands havent been as heavy as expected. That doesnt mean things wont pick up later this afternoon when the Body of Dennis crosses the coast. I would recommend being put til Morning. I honestly think your going to see this storm lose steam drastically when it crosses land. Cuba took alot out of it, Them saying it will stay a Hurrican til Mid day Monday, I disagree with. I wouldnt recommend driving anywahere in that area today if it isnt a dieing emergency.

GEORGIA GIRL

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:35 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

THANKS NATE FOR TAKING THE TIME TO ANSWER MY QUESTION. WITH EVERYTHING THAT'S GOING ON IN THE GULF, MY QUESTION IS MINOR IN COMPARISON. THANKS!! I PRAY FOR SAFETY FOR EVERYONE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM!

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:36 PM

Bullseye on Pensacola

Looking at the projected track Dennis will landfall on Pensacola.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:37 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Looking at the most recent WV imagery, I'd say the storm is going to bring the eyewall onshore just, just to the west of Pensacola, about along the state line or so. Check out the imagery from the following link, you can zoom in as well. (Just click the zoom button and then click in the window at the desired zoom location).

WV Imagery from UHMET

You can clearly see where the storm was going almost due north, and then see how it's hooked now back to the NW/NNW direction. Not good for Pensacola one bit...my prayers again go out to them, this is going to be a very bad day.

CDMOrlando

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:41 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Quote:

I MUST ASK THIS QUESTION. MY HUSBAND IS SUPPOSED TO HEAD FOR ATLANTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I HEARD ONE OF THE NEWS STATIONS MENTION THAT ATLANTA MAY RECEIVE SOME PRETTY ROUGH WEATHER. IF THAT IS THE CASE, I WOULD MUCH RATHER HIM REARRANGE HIS SCHEDULE AND STAY IN SE GA, ESPECIALLY IF HE WILL BE DRIVING THROUGH THE WORST OF IT. ANY ONE HAVE ANY ADVICE FOR ME? I REALLY APPRECIATE IT!

Here is a link to the JAX florida RADAR
[url=http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/jax_NCR_lp.html]web page[/url
This link will show major roads and the rain.
Charleston S.C. along with the Atlanta area sites were down when i checked.

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:42 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

I'd be interested in anyone's comments on Dennis vs. Camille. Dennis has apparently lost some punch as it has gone over cooler waters. Why didn't that happen with Camille...later in the season=warmer waters, was its path over the Gulf over deeper water, etc?

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:43 PM

Re: vortex msg

GEORGIA GIRL -- yes, Atlanta may receive some rough weather: mainly rain, lots of squalls. Airport operations there will likely be touch and go all day with many flights likely to be canceled.

garrison -- I believe they sampled the west side of the storm, coming from Keesler AFB in Mississippi. They'll move to the NE side next.

CDMOrlando

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:45 PM

Re: vortex msg

garrison -- I believe they sampled the west side of the storm, coming from Keesler AFB in Mississippi. They'll move to the NE side next.

I local TV station had an interview with a Hurricane hunter pilot and they indicated that they had moved to texas to run current operation...but still they would be coming from the southwest through the storm.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:46 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Ed in Va-- a combination of all of the above, plus probably some atmospheric factors that came into play as well. Hard to say, though, without a lot of old data for Camille....about all that can be said now is that Dennis is no Camille, which is a good thing.

Latest recon in: 127kt at flight level in the NE quadrant, 939mb sfc. pressure. Storm is a bit weaker, but still very intense.

Pensacola101

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:47 PM

Re: vortex msg

Winds are picking up here in Pensacola (around 60-70mph gusts). Power is still on at my house, but who knows for how much longer. The compactness of this storm is just going to bring the winds all of a sudden I think.

Everyone stay safe.

BobVee

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:50 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Just talked to one of my cousins who drives a big rig. He is between Montgomery and Atlanta(closer to Atlanta) going toward Atlanta and states that there is but a light breeze with intermittent rain showers. I would expect that driving conditions from SE Georgia would be ok if your husband exercises common sense and drives with caution as one would during any thunderstorm or inclement weather. Just listern to local weather reports and be careful.

kissy

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:53 PM

Re: vortex msg

I'm in Pascagoula. It's pretty windy (of course this is only my second hurricane so it seems like alot to me!) rainy. The roads are starting to flood. I can definetly see a decreasae in the weather within the last hour or so. Good luck to everyone!

Jane219ga

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:53 PM

Re: vortex msg

Just for the sake of curiosity - are you a fan of UGA?

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:57 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Well looks like I might have my first blown forecast of the season with my landfall within 50 miles of Panama City. Only way it wouldnt happen is a direct N turn now and head maybe even slightly NNE. Anyways I expected a north turn more earlier, and it actually did look like it last night but was only a wobble. Looks like Ill miss my spot by 25-50 miles. Not bad but ill take the miss on landfall.
Hopefully everyone from Mobile-Panama City is indoors now and ready for this severe hurricane.
On a side note....Dennis's child should become our next depression late today or more likely tomorrow and threaten the Leeward islands Weds, Puerto Rico by thurs and Bahamas by the weekend.,.,,,US? too far out to tell.

scottsvb

BobVee

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:57 PM

Re: vortex msg

Good luck to you and everyone up there. I cannot be there with you in person but will be there in spirit.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:59 PM

webcam

Looks like http://hurricanetrack.com/ is up...but there isn't any discernable image, and he is saying that the pressure may not register.

But at least it looks like it will give wind speed and direction.

Looks like he took the barrier island road east as far as he could go past Gulf Shores, the tower is on Perdido Key which is a barrier island just south of the entrance to the bay.

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 12:59 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Do you have any guesses on how strong this one will be?

LizL

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:02 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

the guy on channel 9 news in Orlando said the pressure is at 930 lower than Ivans was when he come ashore.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:02 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

The next storm will be a small compacted system. Like Charlie last year. There is no reason right now where we cant see this becoming a hurricane in the next 4-5 days. Right now, we dont know.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 PM

Pasco Beach

Hey Kissy looks like MS coast is in the clear. You will get tropical force winds and rain but will be spared the intense center of the storm, which looks to make an AL/FL landfall.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 PM

Fl County Maps

Anybody have a good link to share with detailed or interactive (zoom) county maps of Escambia/Santa Rosa area?

AdvAutoBob

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 PM

Re: webcam

Image is extremely hard to see.. Are they still working on the tower, or have they left the area?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:07 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Quote:

Do you have any guesses on how strong this one will be?

adv 25a just came out - winds droped to 135pmg and pressure went up from 937 to 939. Somewhere like strong CAT 3 weak CAT 4.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:15 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

What is happening to the eye in this most recent frame? Satellite IR and water vapor imagery it still looks intact, but in the radar it looks like it is breaking up to the south?

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmob.shtml

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:16 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Looks like a jog to the N maybe?

firestar_1

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:18 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

After looking at the water vapor loops, surface pressures, and current radar views it is looking like the eye is rounding out again and it is moving into a position to come onshore to the west of Pensacola...the only questions now is will it move west or east as it makes contact with land...cat3/4 at land fall, but at least a smaller eye...prayers for all in the path...stay safe....

Sadie

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:18 PM

Re: Direction

Quote:

From the 3 hurricanes I have gone through I would say going through them in the day hours in less scarey than having them happen at night. I like to know what is happening, I hate being left in the dark (pun not intended)

MaryAnn
Quote:

From experience Keith... I would much rather go through a daytime hurricane than a nighttime one. But perhaps this is a thing of personal preference. It sucks either way... but at least you know what is going on in the day. I guess it doesn�t matter in the bathroom closet.

Know what you mean, they ARE scarier at night. But then again after watching whole oak trees fly by during Charley, maybe being in the dark isn't so bad after all.

My prayers are continuous for those of you in harms way. Favorite aftermath trick -- use your washing machine as an ice bucket. God bless and protect you.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:22 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

You may make your forecast yet. The last hour of radar loop shows the storm moving..can u believe it...maybe an ever so slight N-NE direction. If this trend continues, P'cola may be spared the worst.

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:22 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Defintely a jog to the north and if it contiunes for more than a half hour it's going to make landfall east of Pensacola. I feel so bad for those of you over there who went through Ivan and are now going through Dennis.

It's hard to believe your bad luck and our good luck here in New Orleans.

msmith43

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:23 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

It's a real shame about your forecasting prowess. I'm more concerned about those who will lose their homes and businesses. Your record isn't a great loss.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:27 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

that jog north actually looks northeast jog

no, that just isn't right. -HF

firestar_1

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:29 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

The latest radar is wild...it looks like it is starting to hook to the east...this would make things alot better for pcola....looks like it is starting to feel the land now...

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:30 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

I was watching TWC and the satellite run definately did show a right leaning turn to me.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:31 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Big convective blowup recently in S Alabama...any impact on the track of the storm remains to be seen, but a slight wobble west is not out of the question. This storm looks like it is going directly up Escambia Bay, where damage is going to be catastrophic. This will take the eyewall near or over downtown Pensacola.

Areas from Panama City to Cape San Blas should see their storm surge really kicking up as the center makes landfall and winds begin to come perpedicular to shore in that area. Regions all across the SE from Mississippi to SE Georgia are seeing torrential rains -- here in Tallahassee, we are now well over 5" storm total with much more to come. The FL panhandle, except for perhaps the areas between Apalachicola and Panacea, is bearing the brunt of the heavy rainfall at this time, with S. Alabama next in line as the storm moves north.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:34 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

The radar loop confirms a northward or north-northwestward movement, but not an eastward movement. Surely an eastward movement would be beneficial to Pensacola, but it would doom quite a few other areas just to the east as well. There is the possibility for either an eastward or a westward jog at landfall, but neither is showing up right now. Satellite can be rather deceiving over short intervals, especially if the satellite "jumps" suddenly; radar data is much better to use and offers better resolution at this point in time.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:34 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Its a shame you need to bash me mrsmith. As I said I hope everyone is indoors with this. Your conserns are ours also. Leave it at that.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:35 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Quote:

that jog north actually looks northeast jog

Maybe God is sparing the good people of P'cola from the worst of the rath..if this N or N-NE trend continues much longer the city will be spared. But Ft Walton Beach looks to be severely damaged.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:38 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Clark, I agree its a northward movement, but at this longitude if it holds, Dennis will come in east of P'cola - I'm glued to the short range radar.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:41 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

this large blow up north and west could drag it a bit. what's the mets thinking on motion after landfall?

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:43 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

I'm simultaneously watching radar out of Mobile and Tallahassee with both of them zoomed. It refreshes about every minute or so. I agree that I think it is just a northward movement at this time.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:43 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

It certainly looks like a jog north. Maybe northeast, but too soon to tell. And this late in the game, every jog counts. Last night I was praying east of Mobile. This morning I've been praying east of Pensacola. But with all the thin, vulnerable barrier islands and great communities in this area, there's nowhere good for this thing to go. UGH!

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:45 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Don't disagree with that, Ron, but I do think it'll still come in very near Escambia Bay. Pensacola, IIRC, is on the west side of the bay, but will likely still end up in the eyewall.

After landfall, the storm should continue on its general motion up into the Ohio/Mississippi River valley before stalling out, leading to some heavy rainfall amounts over the next 5 days across the region.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 01:46 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Yeah our main concern is the lives. Homes and Businesses are 2nd. I hope everyone is safe in this storm.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:00 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Looks like still a little westward componant. It seems to be dead on course for Escambia Bay.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:02 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

dirty eye? cloud fill in?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:06 PM

get ready

hats off to the nhc... they've never offered up a track far from the western panhandle and that's just where dennis has gone. everybody who should have gotten out has had ample, exemplary warning. the ugly part is about to start. gulf breeze over to navarre, warrington across pensacola to milton... lots of stuff is about to break. for the people who chose to stay... be safe, don't take risks, stay secure in sturdy places. protect your lives.
HF 1906z10july

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:07 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

I would think, and this is just my opinion, that a path right up the middle of Escambia Bay would at least be better than if this thing lined up a little farther west. Right now and up until landfall, winds are blowing from the east. If Dennis were farther west, winds would be blowing straight up the bay the whole time, piling up the water and increasing storm surge.

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:09 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Indeed moving NNW again, and the eye looks like it will pass right over Pensacola Beach and into Escambia Bay. Downtown Pensacola will be in on the western eyewall along with Perdido Key. Navarre Beach, Destin and Fort Walton Beach will all be in the NE quadrant and will feel the true brunt of Dennis.

My prayers are with you guys!

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:09 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Clark, you're correct it will be very close - Looks like I may be wrong - latest radar shows a slight N-NW movement - looking like a direct hit on P'cola. I'm sorry for the good folks of Pensacola - hopefully most have found safe shelter. I'm guessing we might see an extensive tornado outbreak to the east of the center when it makes landfall too.

BLTizzle

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:11 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

does anyone know how to get to Jason Kelly's live streaming video on his site?

Lisa NC

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:12 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

The eye looks, at this point, like it will pass just west of Escambia Bay, but won't that also bring in the flooding on the back side of the eye. When is high tide? isn't in about an hour?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:12 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

ok...for the second time in my life I will go thru the eye of a hurricane..I live between Pensacola and Navarre near the bGarcon Bridge and we are ground zero..amazingly we still have power..compliments to Ivan and the new infrustructure..its loud..and scary..wish me luck guys

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:13 PM

Eye / Radar presentation.

In the last frames (short range Composite Reflectivity) the eye seems to be collapsing. ERC?

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:14 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Good luck, seriously.

Report back here as long as you can.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:15 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Be Safe Pcola....,...........

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:16 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

ok...for the second time in my life I will go thru the eye of a hurricane..I live between Pensacola and Navarre near the bGarcon Bridge and we are ground zero..amazingly we still have power..compliments to Ivan and the new infrustructure..its loud..and scary..wish me luck guys

Good Luck..Hope you're in a strong building at least 15 feet above sea level. Keep sending reports as long as u can.

sullynole

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:17 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Quote:

I would think, and this is just my opinion, that a path right up the middle of Escambia Bay would at least be better than if this thing lined up a little farther west. Right now and up until landfall, winds are blowing from the east. If Dennis were farther west, winds would be blowing straight up the bay the whole time, piling up the water and increasing storm surge.

better for who? not the people to the east! pensacola isn't the only populated area along the coast there!

Floridacane

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:17 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Stay safe Pcola. My prayers are with you, and everyone up there.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:19 PM

Re: eyewall behavior

Quote:

The eye looks, at this point, like it will pass just west of Escambia Bay, but won't that also bring in the flooding on the back side of the eye. When is high tide? isn't in about an hour?

The worst situation if it occurs. Will pile lots of water into Escambia Bay. I don't think it's really gonna matter whether its high tide or not with a 12-18 foot storm surge predicted

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:21 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Prayers are with you and all in your area. Do you live on Garcon Point or on the island to the south?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:22 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

ok...for the second time in my life I will go thru the eye of a hurricane..I live between Pensacola and Navarre near the bGarcon Bridge and we are ground zero..amazingly we still have power..compliments to Ivan and the new infrustructure..its loud..and scary..wish me luck guys

Good luck...are you out on the E/W penisula where Gulf Breeze is located, or are you north of the bridge on 81 in the N/S peninsula between Pensacola and Eglin (I'm guessing the former)?

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:27 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Just heard on the news that a hotel in Crestview, Fl with 100 or so people in it just had the roof ripped off. Wind gusts and rain in Mobile, but so far so good. I feel bad for the people to the east of me, but have to say I'm still closer than I wanted to be !

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:33 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

To my untrained eye it looks like Dennis will clip Gulf Breeze and goes just west of Escambia Bay.
My heart goes out to each and every one in the path of Dennis and also to the ones further west and those to the east as you too need the prayers. I have a feeling my FIL will be selling his condos at Gulf Shores. The condos were still being repaired and were not livable just yet. I do not wish a hurricane on anyone but I was wishing this area would be spared.

GBPaul

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:40 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

We are in Tiger Point, just East of Gulf Breeze. 1:38 CST and we still have power and cable. It is really kicking up... looks to be gusting 60 or 70.
Judging from the radar, we are going to see the eye.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:43 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Anyone else think it's humorous how Heather Tesh on TWC has been constantly saying "eminent" approach when she has meant "imminent"?

It's one thing for my 8 year-old daughter to misuse a word she is unfamiliar with, but it's obvious that the word-a-day approach has failed with that TV personality.

Forget "hunker down", the word of this hurricane season is now "eminent".

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:47 PM

Re: Hurricanetrack

The tower didn't hold up at all it seems, they're back to streaming from their SUV. It appears they just parked in a lot, I'd be kinda worried for them.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:47 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

pressure up to 942 with the last fix. probably a little higher now. actual impact intensity probably an upper cat 3... definitely nothing to take lightly. looking at mapquest.. looks like oriole beach just east of gulf breeze.. in 30 minutes or so. there'll be an intermediate advisory at 3pm eastern; probably gonna be assigned 130mph intensity.
the western inner eyewall of the hurricane is going to move over pensacola in about an hour.. going to be a hell of a lot of damage.
by the way, high tide was at about half past noon cdt. don't think those waters backed out of pensacola bay at all.
HF 1947z10july

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:47 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Tornado Warning for 3 counties in the extreme western panhandle of Florida.
http://uswx.com/us/wx/FL/004/AFCN.7072/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA
ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA
SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE OUTER EYEWALL OF HURRICANE DENNIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN 2
AND 230 PM. THE EYEWALL CONTAINS THE MOST DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
HIGHEST DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL...AND WILL PRODUCE TORNADO LIKE
DAMAGE.

* THE OUTER EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO BE PASS OVER SANTA ROSA ISLAND
BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND FORT WALTON BEACH BETWEEN 2 AND 230 PM.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 3020 8710 3026 8672 3096 8670 3091 8754

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:52 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

3PM ADVISORY IN..

Eyewall is making landfall neat Fort Walton and Destin..

Winds down to 120MPH

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:52 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

CNN just broke in on it's Hurricane Dennis coverage for btreaking news that...

The Eyewall has landed at or near Fort Walton Beach. Cat 3, 120MPH

Breaking in on a story they are already covering...

GBPaul

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:53 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

We still have power at 1:51 in Tiger Point/Oriole Beach.
Winds are still out of NE so, eyewall has yet to come ashore.
Can't wait...

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:54 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

the fairy godmother has struck. dennis dropped a category just before landfall; it's essentially ivan intensity now. not that that is anything approximating good, but it's a hell of a lot better than the storm we had this morning a couple hours after daybreak.
HF 1953z10july

GBPaul

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:55 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Nate, we are looking at the 300 mile radar.
Eyewall is coming in quiet a bit west of Ft Walton - Destin.
Not here yet.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 02:58 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Cat 3, thank goodness. Storm is getting very near making a complete landfall. Not much that can still be said about this one, other than God speed to those in its path.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:00 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

boy, mike seidel sure got testy with heather on twc.

santa rosa, I hope is empty at this moment. wow

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:03 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I am in the eyewall right noe..Ivan was much worse..I still have power..I don't get it

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:05 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Winds 70-80 mph..radar shows the Eye coming over our house in the next few minutes

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:07 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

anyone have any local pensacola weather observation links that work? trying to get real time (or near real time) winds speeds.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:07 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

98 mph

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:09 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

You've got to remember, first you had Ivan clearing out a lot of the weaker obstacles last year, and second you have much newer, stronger utility infrastructure as a result. Last year we lost power almost 18 hours before Frances, and only two hours before Jeanne.

Stay safe.

(e: typo)

B.C.Francis

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:09 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Good job...Your the foward observer at this moment , keep the infro coming...Weatherchef

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:12 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

pcola.... um, where exactly do you live?

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:14 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

FIrst 70-75 mph wind gust in P-Cola tries to blow TWC reporter (not sure who... didn't look like Cantore, but maybe) over.... I won't start on my thoughts here...

... but, I will add that I hope everyone from here in that area is smarter than these bozo's on television. My prayers are with you, keep safe!

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:18 PM

Landfall.

Radar indicated landfall has occured 2:14 local time near Oriole Beach / Gulf Breeze.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:18 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

uh-oh did we lose Pcola?

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:20 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Lysis,

I would guess he lives in pensacola based on his screename.

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:21 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I live in Gulf Breeze Proper. Got out and headed to my moms in Mobile yesterday. Just wacthing the TWC and see this looks like it made landfall in my backyard. Right now conditions in west Mobile are a bit windy but not bad. Some rain but not torrential. If anyone is from Gulf Breeze and still has internet access and reading please give me an update for that area. I live less than one mile from GBHS football field. Lastly, good luck to whoever stayed for this thing.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:21 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Actually... I gained a little respect of TWC with their forcasting. One guy on Mobile actually got on and said that "this was nothing" compared to what is happening to the east. Jeff Morrow is getting some great footage. On Fox, you know these guys are upset that the eye isn't hitting them, so they play up tropical storm force "gusts" as much as they can. This is why some people think hurricanes are "no big deal".

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:22 PM

eyewall

looks like the se side of the eyewall opened, but the nw side convection deepened.. that's currently moving onto pensacola right now. see jeff morrow gettin' knocked all over the place.
HF 2022z10july

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:23 PM

Re: Landfall.

Wow Pcola really was ground zero. Such a localized area of high winds.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:27 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

pcola, pcola where r u? what's happening?

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:29 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

From what I can tell from Pcola's posts, I think the location is somewhere on the point of land between Garcon Point and Santa Rosa Island, maybe in the oriole beach area but on the backside near the Garcon Point Bridge. If Pcola is still on, is this close?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:30 PM

Re: Landfall.

Hopefully pcola just lost power and is safe

msmith43

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:30 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I think he mentioned he lives near Tiger Point -- just east of Gulf Breeze.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:31 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Judging only from the tv video, this storm does not look as bad as Ivan.
Anyone else get that impression.
Hope I'm right

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:32 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

The close up radar on the TV showed the tiny tiny area of the eye that was still open (which looked to be only maybe a half-dozen city blocks wide) just go over east of Oriole Beach in the area where the strip of land is narrowest. I think this is right where Pcola lives...heck he's probably looking out the window not staring at a computer screen!

I hope he isn't looking out the window. Very, very dangerous to do!

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:33 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

Judging only from the tv video, this storm does not look as bad as Ivan.
Anyone else get that impression.
Hope I'm right

iT JUST HIT LANDFALL, SO LETS WAIT AND SEE..

ALSO. ANY HURRICANE IS BAD, ESPICALLY FOR THAT AREA, THAT IS STILL RECOVERING.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:34 PM

Re: eyewall

Quote:

looks like the se side of the eyewall opened, but the nw side convection deepened.. that's currently moving onto pensacola right now. see jeff morrow gettin' knocked all over the place.
HF 2022z10july

ya Dr Lyons is probably right about the more intense NE winds lifting off of sea level. Destin doesn't look bad at all.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:35 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I watched ivan from tv and it didn't look bad until the next afternoon, LONG way to go for many poor folks.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:35 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

in terms of extent, you're probably right. this storm had a small, tight inner core that was weakening as it made landfall. the extensive damage path will be more limited for that reason. of course, footage ended from around gulf breeze/pensacola as the storm came ashore.. and i haven't seen anything from navarre. milton is getting rocked right now.. atmore and brewton alabama will get it around 4-5pm central.
HF 2035z10july

nandav

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:37 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

They are saying on TWC that there is a lot of lightning around the eye.. that's unusual, isn't it? I have been through 2 eyes (Supertyphoon Pamela on Guam in 1976 and Charley last year) and I know there was no lightning.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:37 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I concur....MSNBC showed a real close zoomed in radar signature view and it was VERY clear where the eye has crossed onto land. The eye went right over Tiger Point Golf & Country Club at roughly the intersection of US 98 & Route 281 (Gulf Breeze Parkway & Garcon Pt. Brg.). I shudder to think of what will be left of that country club.

That's almost exactly in the area where PCola was posting from, I believe. Odds are very good that he's without power; the reporters from the area on MSNBC were saying that most of that area is without power right now, so I wouldn't be surprised.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:37 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

anyone have any good wind speed data?

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:38 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

When you come across the Pensacola Bay Bridge (Three Mile Bridge) you come into Gulf Bereze Proper. That's where I live. Garcon Point / Tiger Point is about 10 miles east of GB Proper. Navarre is about 12 miles east of Garcon Point. Hurricane Ivan wreaked havoc on Tiger Point. Especially soundfront homes. Jim Cantore is at GB Hospital which is on the fringe of GB Proper. GB Proper is less than 3 miles in length along hwy 98.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:38 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Hopefully he's got the windows boarded up and isn't watching his roof peel off. If he had 98 mph winds, he definitely lost power.

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:42 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

I concur....MSNBC showed a real close zoomed in radar signature view and it was VERY clear where the eye has crossed onto land. The eye went right over Tiger Point Golf & Country Club at roughly the intersection of US 98 & Route 281 (Gulf Breeze Parkway & Garcon Pt. Brg.). I shudder to think of what will be left of that country club.

The golf course was still under repair from Ivan.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:42 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

FYI, here in Atlanta, the first main rain band from Dennis is starting to pull into the area. In the past 30 minutes here in South Atlanta, the weather radio has been going crazy with T-Storm Warnings as well as Tornado warnings.....

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:43 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Yes it went right over the bridge. You could see it even on the 19:29Z frame of the Tallahassee short range radar if you looked very closely. That was the left side of the eyewall. I think even though it was clouded over the right side of the eyewall was between Woodlawn Beach and Navarre. Seems odd only about 8 mi wide?

firestar_1

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:44 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

They are saying on TWC that there is a lot of lightning around the eye.. that's unusual, isn't it? I have been through 2 eyes (Supertyphoon Pamela on Guam in 1976 and Charley last year) and I know there was no lightning.

Pamela was bad...my family and I were on Okinawa when Guam was hit before coming our way...at least being off the islands we can get away from these storms when we need too.

yecatsjg

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:48 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

They are showing sustained winds in the 40s around the eyewall on TWC. How is that posssible?

Stacey

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:49 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I was wondering about the atypical lightning as well... I have not seen any such thing in my hurricane experiences.

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:51 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

They are showing sustained winds in the 40s around the eyewall on TWC. How is that posssible?

Stacey

Anderson Cooper of CNN just had some unreal live video where they had to take cover in Pensacola.. Trees and Roofs shredded.

Big Red Machine

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:51 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Did anyone see Anderson Cooper on CNN a few moments ago? What a gust! The guys around him are lucky to be okay.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:52 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

Quote:

They are showing sustained winds in the 40s around the eyewall on TWC. How is that posssible?

Stacey

Anderson Cooper of CNN just had some unreal live video where they had to take cover in Pensacola.. Trees and Roofs shredded.

... and the Ramada sign is officially down.

mom2als

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:53 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

anyone have any good wind speed data?

This is from Navarre. Keep refreshing for updates

http://grove.ufl.edu/~fcmp/Dennis/T0/

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:54 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Yeah, MSNBC just showed an awesome cross section of the storm as it was coming on shore. They took the radar image and turned it on it's side and moved through the storm like it was a CAT scan. Wow! We could have somefun with that program!

I'm wondering how the Garcon Point Bridge held up. It this a newer bridge? Was it damaged at all during Ivan?

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:56 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

CNN and Anderson Cooper just show a large hotel sign(and a tree) get ripped apart near Pcola bay, right in front of them live. This is Anderson's first direct hit(He missed all three canes last year by miles) and he's doing pretty good for a "normal" reporter.

They lost one reporter feed near the center of the eye, so hopefully she is ok.

Edit: Right now Anderson is in the eye(4PM)

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:57 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

The Garcon Point Bridge is fairly new. I think 1999 or 2000. Maybe a little older than that. It did great during Ivan. I drive it once a week to my milton office. The only problem is that there is a 3.00 toll each way.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 03:59 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

WTNT64 KNHC 101940
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT HURRICANE DENNIS MADE LANDFALL AT
1925Z...225 PM CDT...ON SANTA ROSA ISLAND BETWEEN NAVARRE BEACH AND
PENSACOLA BEACH FLORIDA. DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE
RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AS WELL AS
FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
AIRCRAFT...INDICATE THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF DENNIS WAS 100
TO 105 KT...115 TO 120 MPH...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:00 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I honeslty havent heard any winds o ver 75 MPH..

Its getting calm now where Anderson is.. This Cane may not be as bad as thought.

Rain may be the worse part

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:01 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

CNN is live in Crestview now.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:02 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I don't know... some of these news reports are a little silly. The two guys on CNN are pretending that they are in the eye... You guys do realize that this is nothing even remotely close to what going through a major hurricane is like?

EDIT: To be fair... I saw those guys position and they are close. Some good footage. It still doesn't do the storm justice though.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:03 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

From Mobile NWS Office. old data. Read the last line!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...A VERY SERIOUS HURRICANE EMERGENCY IS BECOMING MORE IMMINENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...AT 130...THE CENTRE OF DENNIS IS POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE
BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND NAVARRE. RADAR TRACK HAS DENNIS MOVING AT
344/12KTS. ERRATIC...MESOSCALE WOBBLING CONTINUES...BUT WITH THE
EXPECTED LANDFALL WITHIN THE HOUR...IT'S GOING TO TAKE A SERIOUS
WOBBLE TO TAKE DENNIS TOWARDS MOBILE PROPER.

PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT A NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT

NAIL-BITING HAS REDUCED FINGERS TO NUBS....

(serious, emergency and imminent in the same sentence)

(Admin)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:06 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

High peak windgust report from land was from a small station in Navarre Beach, 131.4 MPH winds.

With the info blackout that happens when a storm passes we really won' know until tomorrow. Maybe parts this evening.

http://grove.ufl.edu/~fcmp/Dennis/T0/

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:09 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Well when you are in a middle of a hurricane, Reporter mode to just speculate kicks in harder. When it gets that calm, you think center.

Now if this was TWC....then we have a problem. Speaking of which, I switch over and see Dustin, Fl still going through hell.

CarlSpackler

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:10 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

must CNN show the same Anderson Cooper video over and over???!!! i've seen it 4 times now!

ShanaTX

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:11 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I think they're getting a little giddy...

On our non cable tv we can watch local channels - showing golf, car racing, movies or the Tour de France. Even HD secondary channels are showing local radar (even tho when there's a hurricane in the gulf our weather is always exactly the same - hot and dry!). Last year, the secondary channels showed hurricane coverage. Not this year.

But wait! ABC broke into their sports show to show a couple of minutes of Dennis update! Looks like wherever they are, 2 miles from Pensacola Beach, they're the only people around. Good.

Stay safe!

From ABCNews.com

Quote:

National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said the distinction between a 3 and a 4 should matter little to those in Dennis' path.

"It's a little bit like the difference between getting run over by an 18-wheeler and a freight train. Neither prospect is good," he said.

eta: spelling and quote

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:13 PM

Re: wind speeds from Navarre

Quote:

Quote:

anyone have any good wind speed data?

This is from Navarre. Keep refreshing for updates

http://grove.ufl.edu/~fcmp/Dennis/T0/

OK I am trying to understand that data. It appears the wind came first from around NE to E to SE as the eye passed near, with wind increasing then decreasing, with wind gusts as high as just over 130mph from the ESE...so these were the winds from the NE quadrant of the storm that had the high gusts.

It looked like the sustained winds were around 90mph for a small period of time.

Is this right?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:14 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

High peak windgust report from land was from a small station in Navarre Beach, 131.4 MPH winds.

http://grove.ufl.edu/~fcmp/Dennis/T0/

Mike, thanks for that link. Do you have a link for a larger menu of sites?

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:14 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

must CNN show the same Anderson Cooper video over and over???!!! i've seen it 4 times now!

TWC reported cane possibly falling apart..

There showing that cause right now thats the worse damage report. CNN also showed the Crestview Hotel no roof, possible on fire also.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:15 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Panama City airport is the only airport I can find that is still transmitting ASOS data.

KPFN 30 12N 085 41W
KNPA 30 21N 087 19W

KPFN 102000Z 17026G38KT 3SM -RA BR PK WND 17038/1959

KNPA 101956Z 32022G44KT 3/4SM +SHRA BR PK WND 01050/1954 PRESFR SLP773 P00

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:15 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

No they were close... and I didn�t see some of the more dramatic footage when I wrote that� while it doesn�t do the storm justice, I will admit that it is better than most of the other stuff coming out. Especially considering that it is coming from a normal media outlet.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:15 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I gave up on CNN after all of four minutes. "Look at the FEAR on their faces!" I was getting tired from rolling my eyes so much.

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:17 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

I gave up on CNN after all of four minutes. "Look at the FEAR on their faces!" I was getting tired from rolling my eyes so much.

Id be fearful too.. That Metsal could slice you in half..

CNN now has on the Crestview Hotel, surprisingly the Emergency Personnel responded. Do you think this storm is alot lighter then some thought it would be?

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:18 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

METAR text: KNPA 101956Z 32022G44KT 3/4SM +SHRA BR OVC014 MM/22 A2884 RMK PK WND 01050/1954 PRESFR SLP773 P0064
Conditions at: KNPA observed 1956 UTC 10 July 2005
Temperature: missing
Dewpoint: missing
Pressure (altimeter): 28.84 inches Hg (976.7 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 977.3 mb]
Winds: from the NW (320 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.4 m/s)
gusting to 51 MPH (44 knots; 22.9 m/s)
Visibility: 0.75 miles (1.21 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1400 feet AGL
Weather: +SHRA BR (heavy rain showers, mist)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

METAR text: KPFN 102000Z AUTO 17026G38KT 3SM -RA BR FEW014 BKN020 OVC040 26/25 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 17038/1959 P0001 $
Conditions at: KPFN observed 2000 UTC 10 July 2005
Temperature: 26.0�C (79�F)
Dewpoint: 25.0�C (77�F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.47 inches Hg (998.1 mb)
Winds: from the S (170 degrees) at 30 MPH (26 knots; 13.5 m/s)
gusting to 44 MPH (38 knots; 19.8 m/s)
Visibility: 3 miles (5 km)
Ceiling: 2000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1400 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 4000 feet AGL
Weather: -RA BR (light rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

http://weather.cod.edu/obs/fl.cooked

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:19 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Microwave data suggests an eyewall replacement cycle was near as it approached landfall, but the system made landfall before it could be completed. Thankfully, that coupled with the cooler waters offshore likely kept intensity in check -- and on the decline -- as it made landfall. It'll be interesting to see the reports trickle in over the next couple of days, but I expect a lot of damage along Navarre Beach and towards Ft. Walton & Mary Esther.

Big Red Machine

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:21 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I'd keep in mind that initial reports always seem better than what was expected. The extent of the damage will not be known until the storm clears and helicopters can go up to survey the damage and people can drive around.

I expect the damage to be worse than many here are assuming now.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:22 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Yes, and I agree. But long after the sign came down, long after the eyewall was north of him, he (Cooper?) kept over-sensationalizing the danger he was in. "I'm going to drag this scrap across the street before it kills one of us" Etc.

On the other hand, Sudduth has been driving along the beach the last few minutes. It looks like the surge wasn't nearly as bad as Ivan, but there's still a good amount of beach sand on the road.

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:25 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Yes� but don�t be fooled. The more destructive winds are going to be over a relatively small area, with is not comparable to the CNN footage (they were experiencing the western quadrants). They are generalizing (ie, they are saying �this is not as bad as it could have been�, whereas they should be saying �this is not as bad as it could have been here.�)

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:26 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KMOB.shtml

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...HURRICANE DENNIS MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND NAVARRE
FLORIDA...CLOSEST TO ORIOLE BEACH FLORIDA...

..EXTREME WIND DAMAGE...FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES A CERTAINTY
AFTER LANDFALL...

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS...

...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS HAVE CHANGED SINCE OUR LAST HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT. FOR THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL WARNING PRODUCTS
PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE
SEE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 1100 PM THIS EVENING. BALDWIN...MOBILE AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ARE
NOT IN THE TORNADO WATCH.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 245 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
AT 30.4 NORTH LATITUDE...87.1 WEST LONGITUDE...OR NEAR ORIOLE BEACH
FLORIDA. DENNIS WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.
THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS
FROM BOTH EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE AND MOBILE ALABAMA SHOW 125 TO 135 MPH
WINDS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET OFF OF THE GROUND...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF DENNIS OVER THE LANDFALL
LOCATION. A PORTABLE WEATHER OBSERVATION STATION NEAR NAVARRE
MEASURED A 121 MPH WIND GUST AT 211 PM CDT. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT DENNIS IS LIKELY A CATEGORY THREE STORM...AND POSSIBLY A
CATEGORY 4 STORM. WE WILL KNOW MORE AS MORE OBSERVATIONS BECOME
AVAILABLE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AT THIS TIME...ALL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED. IF YOU DID NOT EVACUATE...SEEK SHELTER IN THE
STURDIEST INTERIOR STRUCTURE YOU CAN FIND. SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MANY
AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV OR
LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH 2 PM CDT. STORM SURGE VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF DENNIS'S CENTER.
THE GREATEST STORM SURGE HAZARD OVER ESCAMBIA BAY FLORIDA...
ESPECIALLY EAST BAY. RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS ARE IN STORE
THROUGH 5 PM CDT OVER ESCAMBIA BAY AS DENNIS APPROACHES. BE PREPARED!
TIDE LEVELS IN MOBILE BAY ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET DUE TO
OFFSHORE WINDS AS DENNIS. SOME PILING OF WATER ON THE BAY SIDES OF
BOTH THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA AND DAUPHIN ISLAND ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 7 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA BY NOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. THESE WILL SPREAD
INLAND BY 6 PM CDT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR
AROUND AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF DENNIS' CENTER. AFTER LANDFALL
...THE CENTER OF DENNIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
BALDWIN...CLARKE...CHOCTAW....ESCAMBIA AND MONROE COUNTIES OF ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST AS
UPDATES OCCUR. EXTENSIVE TO EXTREME TORNADO-LIKE WIND DAMAGE IS
POSSIBLE AROUND...AND ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF
DENNIS' EYE AS IT MOVES INLAND.

...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
STAY OUT OF THE WATER. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE
RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE
WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY! RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY DUE
TO A FASTER FORWARD MOTION FROM DENNIS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE
RAPID...ESPECIALLY NEAR RURAL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OVER URBAN
CONCRETE SURFACES. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED WHILE DRIVING...
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD BE WORSE
THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998.
AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
MIDWEEK. THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF DENNIS.

...TORNADO THREAT...USUALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT OF HURRICANE
INDUCED TORNADOES IS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS NORTHEAST OF THE STORM'S
CENTER. A SECOND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE EYE
DURING LANDFALL. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS DENNIS PLOWS INLAND. TORNADO WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMMINENT THREAT.

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE DENNIS MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND NAVARRE
FLORIDA...CLOSEST TO ORIOLE BEACH FLORIDA.

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS
AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT
OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE
MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
300 PM CDT...OR EARLIER IF NEEDED.

(Weather Drama Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:27 PM

gettiin gusts of 45-50 mph

heavy bands...nothin dangerous.....we're under a curfew...or I'd drive to Brewton and get some real excitement...

hope noone got hurt....

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:28 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Agreed. This thing is going to have some areas of damage very much like Ivan did -- just not where the reporters are right now.

And, as an aside, the NHC did an absolutely fantastic job with this one. Others...not so much. That's why they make the big bucks, fellows. Just hope everyone is safe out there with this storm.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:31 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

I don't know... some of these news reports are a little silly. The two guys on CNN are pretending that they are in the eye... You guys do realize that this is nothing even remotely close to what going through a major hurricane is like?

I agree.

Well the first thing that I thought was weird was that when it was blowing they kept saying that they must be in the eye...here they are covering hurricanes and they don't even understand the difference between the eye (calm) and the eye wall (big wind).

The second thing is - why the heck do they all go stand out in the wind or knee deep in water or wherever they think it looks the worst? That will just convince people that there isn't any reason not to go right down to see a hurricane because hey look you can stand in it. It seems like either they are out there when they shouldn't be, or they're outside trying to convince you that they are in the middle of some terrible storm and yet standing in front of a bush where the leaves aren't even fluttering.

I am wondering if the winds weren't lifted off the ground a bit. I agree with you those fellows were not in the middle of what you think of when you think of a serious hurricane: high level winds that are sustained over a long period of time.

I think maybe first because it blew through so fast, and second, the high winds were so limited around such a small area. Third, it really is hard to tell just how hard the wind is blowing by seeing someone stand in it on TV, so it could have been blowing harder than it seemed. Finally, I think this storm really did blow itself out a lot before hitting land (starting over an hour before when the radar signature of the eye started looking like a comma with the south side breaking up a bit).

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:31 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Down to a CAT 2.. 96 MPH WINDS as of 5PM...

Worse is def over..

No way this thing stays a hurricane til Monday night as earlier prediction.

Never say never when dealing with the weather.~danielw

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:33 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

nice catch Daniel. can the eyewall finish regerating over land? can those high winds sink?

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:34 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I was just about to say that Clark� kudos to the NHC. Their track remained pretty consistent, and, God willing, the death toll will be dramatically lessened because of it. One positive (and negative) about this storm is that the area it affected was well versed in the reality of hurricanes. Hopefully everyone took it seriously.

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:37 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Quote:

nice catch Daniel. can the eyewall finish regerating over land? can those high winds sink?

Clark, Hank, this question has you guys written on it.
I wish I could answer that for you...I would hope it couldn't finish the cycle!

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:40 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I wouldnt be surprised if Dennis is downgraded to a TS at the next Advisory.

AS TWC stated it is really losing its punch.. This is really great news.Now we all gottaworry about flooding.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:51 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Clark: I echo your sentiments. The NHC did an outstanding job on forecasting the track of this storm. I just went over to the NHC archives and pulled up their 5 day forecast graphics.

In Advisory #6 (July 6, 2005 5am EDT), they literally had the marker sitting RIGHT on top of the final true landfall spot. No kidding - go pull up the chart and see if you don't believe me. The only thing they had wrong about it was the landfall time - they had predicted 2am Monday. Keep in mind that was 105 hours out.

ALSO...keep in mind the storm's location at the time of that forecast was due south of the Dominican Republic. That was a fantastically accurate prediction, all things concerned. And by Advisory #17 (July 8, 5pm EDT...45 hours out) they had nailed landfall at roughly 230pm Sunday.

I'm sorry, but for this isolated case, the NHC could not have better predicted the storm. My heart goes out to any who may have suffered losses from this horrific storm, but I do add one footnote for what its worth: the NHC knew where this storm was going, and did a great job of warning people. If there were those who, despite reason and sense decided to stay put on the beach in the path of the storm....well, I'll still be sympathetic to their plight, but I'll also think in my mind it could have been avoided.

Again, kudos to the NHC for an excellent forecasting job...

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:52 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Hey Clark� did you ever answer the lightning question? I know that it is atypical for hurricanes, so what do you reason was causing it?

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:54 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

The eyewall will simply continue to disintegrate and collapse over land. As it weakens, some of the winds may be transferred down to the surface, but having lost the necessary conditions for development -- energy off of the ocean waters -- there is no chance of regeneration. The eyewall replacement cycle was interrupted in the process, leaving the storm in a transitory state from which it will only weaken.

Nate

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:55 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Looks like the rain bands arent following whole way around the eye, the back part looks like drier air is filling on, which qwill weaken it faster.

VERY GOOD NEWS

Not necessarily. The appearance on radar is much like that of any other storm making landfall and indicative of the effects of land upon the storm. There are less echoes on radar to the east of the storm now, yes, but that is well removed from the center and not near the core. --Clark

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 04:56 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Must've missed that one, but I'll take a stab on lightning in hurricanes in general.

Lightning is caused largely by charged particles aloft...sometimes ice content can be used as a good marker for lightning ability. It's rare with tropical cyclones to see the necessary conditions for lightning due to low ice content and the like, but with the cold convective tops found with Dennis, it's not out of the realm of possibility to have seen some. Most tropical cyclones do have *some* lightning, just not a lot.

I'm not as familiar with lightning processes, however, as with other aspects of the field, so perhaps HF or someone can add in more.

nandav

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:03 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I had just asked because on TWC, they showed that there was a lot of lightning around the eye, and wondered why..

Domino

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:06 PM

Re: Major Category 3 Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

Just on my way into work and was passed on the interstate in Indianapolis by 20+ power line repair trucks from Michigan heading south. Was impressive to see so many trucks from so far north headed all the way down there.

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:07 PM

Re: Major Category 3 Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

Looks like more trouble in the next week or so with some powerful waves coming off of Africa and also a major wave in the Atlantic that is expected to gain considerable strength.

sprghill

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:10 PM

Re: Major Category 3 Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

are there any sats on the other two waves out there

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:10 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Well... it is just I have never seen lightning, and another poster here was reiterating the same� which is not to say it can't happen (I have only been through two afterall). Actually, I suppose it would be difficult to locate, as thunder would be most inaudible. I did read once that lightning is observed when a tropical cyclone interacts with
mountainous terrain. I am not sure why that would happen under those conditions, and this is certainly not what is causing Dennis to do it.

Eh, exploding transformers, lightning� it�s all the same.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:10 PM

Re: Major Category 3 Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

Quote:

Just on my way into work and was passed on the interstate in Indianapolis by 20+ power line repair trucks from Michigan heading south. Was impressive to see so many trucks from so far north headed all the way down there.

That was an amazing thing last year after Charley. Charley hit SW Florida on Friday - early Monday morning I passed a caravan of trucks from Cincinnati that were headed to Charlotte County. They came from all over.

Big Red Machine

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:14 PM

Re: Major Category 3 Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

Quote:

Just on my way into work and was passed on the interstate in Indianapolis by 20+ power line repair trucks from Michigan heading south. Was impressive to see so many trucks from so far north headed all the way down there.

I'm sure the people in Pensacola (who now have to cope with the Florida heat in no ac) will be glad to hear that too, Domino. Last year when Charley tore through Orlando, we had trucks from all over, including Canada and I believe Washington state. (the power guys became the local heroes)

Edit: Looks like great minds think alike KC

CentralFlorida

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:37 PM

Re: Major Category 3 Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon

new post everyone

beatlesgal

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:49 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

I have been monitoring this storm for the past six days, and today after watching the storm approach the Pensacola, Navarre Beach area, I actually got physically sick. I really couldn't understand why I had gotten so sick. I know I have said I went through Andrew in Homestead and I remember it being extremely dangerous to the point we thought we were going to die (we were running from room to room because we lost our roof in the first part of the storm so we had to keep running around the house, each room we went into either the ceiling collapsed or something blew through the door, so we had to keep running, until we came to the last bathroom and then finally the garage because the worst part of the storm had yet to come and we need a safe place, so we got in the car in the garage). So, today I went back and looked at the historical evidence regarding the storm today. I never got a chance to back then and hadn't wanted to until today. What I never knew until today, was that the lowest observed surface pressure and area of the highest winds (with sustained winds 165 MPH and gusts over 200 MPH was located at 288st . My address at the time was 11622 sw 281 st. The point was located between 117 and 288 st. Meaning I had experienced some of the highest winds the storm had to offer. I think even to this day I experience post traumatic stress syndrome from this storm. I just thought I would pass this along just in case anyone else out there was experiencing the same thing.

erikakane2010

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 05:57 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Hey, yes I still get that feeling when I hear the wind scream and that's from when I was a kid and my parents rarely chose to evacuate. We had Cindy pass by (hope they re-classify it a Cat 1 cuz it surely was) and we did not board up or anything b/c we though it would pass well east and it would not be anything. Around 2am, that NOTHING spawned tornadoes and scared me to the point of being physically ill when the winds blew. I feel for anyone that gets any storm, but Dennis sure packed a punch. Is anyone posting from Pensacola Beach/Navarre area???

(User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 06:11 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall

Hey, beatlesgal ... look for your street in this picture:
I lived on 218 street at the time, in the Redlands...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/1992andy.JPG

(Moderator)

Sun Jul 10 2005 06:19 PM

New Thread

New Thread posted. Please post there. Thanks.

starwise

(Registered User)

Sun Jul 10 2005 06:39 PM

Re: Dennis' Landfall + ANDREW

I know the feeling .. it does make you sick. I call it flashback anxiety. I've had it every hurricane season since Andrew .. I could crawl under the bed in a fetal position. And I've come to HATE THE WIND ... I HATE it!! My insides just turn to jello.

Thank you for that view of Andrew .. I've never seen it ... I was 5 mins. from Homestead Air Force Base -- 280 St. and 157th Ave., Naranja Lakes .. didn't have a chance. Across the street were 5 mobile home communities, so all that sheet metal peeled off and ended up as a lethal hazards everywhere. Even experienced pilots who had flown in Viet Nam bringing us our salvation and food said it was worse than what they'd seen in Viet Nam. That's where the bomb went off, and where the most deaths in one development occurred.

30% of the Homestead population moved out after Andrew .. big chunk of the population.

After last season's terrors, where I had located after Andrew east of Tampa, I finally cracked ... fell apart .. had to get out after 30+ years, and I'm SO grateful I don't ever have to face these again. It becomes a wound you carry with you forever. I'll take winter and snow gladly.

I pray for the folks suffering there today ... may God bless them .. what they're facing now is pure heartbreak.. especially after last year, but when you have your life, you have everything .. the rest comes with time. Take care.

Star .. in Chicago