MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 03:52 AM |
Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also
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Tropical Storm Emily has strengthened a bit tonight, now with winds around 60 MPH. Recon is scheduled to fly into the storm sometime tomorrow so we may have a better idea then on what it will do.
It appears emily will stay on a very westerly course, south of the larger Caribbean islands, and eventually head toward the Yucatan. At that point, east of the Yucatan, the cone of error could take it into the gulf or continue it on into Mexico. More time to watch it. The Caymans, and Jamaica, as well as the Leewards (Who are under hurricane watches) need to watch out for this system.
Beyond Emily, is another area of disturbed weather that will likely be TD#6 sometime tomorrow.
More to come later.
More to come later... in the meantime, look at the blogs below for more Emily information.
Event Related Links
StormCarib - Individual reports from the Caribbean Islands
Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
(Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis
Emily
Animated Model Plot of Emily
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily
Emily Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Emily
QuikScat Image of Emily
Area east of Emily (99L)
Animated Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L
Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:03 AM |
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analog for emily?
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any of y'all remember bret in 1993? based on how emily is acting, that may end up being our analog system. the wnw turn could still happen, but i'm getting less convinced that it will.
back in the east altantic 99L still has it's convective mass near the center. ssts where it is are really marginal, but maybe it's just forcing thunderstorm activity by sheer inertia as it hurtles westward. i think get classification in another 24-48 hrs.. near 40-45w things should start to coalesce for it.
ftlaudbob, from the last thread... i was offering some very active seasons and made it implicit that those records are incomplete.. no satelites or recon, or even thoroughly searched ship logs and local reports of tropical cyclones. notice how you don't see many tropical storms in the east atlantic? lots of storms that stayed at sea escaped record. i'm sure a july like this has happened before. i know of a pre-1851 june that had four systems.. two of them made landfall in south carolina, as a matter of fact. may be part of the work i do here at usc... if funding and such comes through.
HF 0502z13july
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:07 AM |
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Even If..
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even if emily continues on into Mexico..it could bring some eexxttreemmelllyy heavy rain to South Texas JAIMACA IS GETTING BATTERED RIGHT ALONG WITH FLORIDA
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LOVIN THE ISLAND ABOUT NOW
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:14 AM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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To answer Mike N's question at the end of the old thread: models usually do a pretty good job in forecasting troughs out to 4 and 5 days, at least in general, but the specifics -- how strong, how fast, how far -- they sometimes have trouble with. Some models do better than others with different systems & regimes, while others do better solely in the tropics. The forecasting aspects must be incorporated into any track forecast, starting from the outset: if the model doesn't get the initial conditions of the overall regime right, it's likely not going to get the rest of it right. We saw this last year with the subtropical ridge.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:17 AM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Hank,Can we agree on" ïn our life time".
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:25 AM |
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Random..Sorrry
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HurricaneCity
this site states...
How often Long Island gets affected?
brushed or hit every 5.36 years
ehh i dont know about that..sorry if this is random which it is i thought it wouldget everyone off of Emily while she treks across the Lesser Antilles
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:26 AM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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bob.. maybe. we may end up approaching or surpassing 1995 numbers (the big year of recent times). of course, in 1997 on july 16th we were outpacing 1995, with our 4th named storm and 5th depression. we didn't get our 5th named storm until early september, and finished the year with 7 named and 1 unnamed subtropical. in 1966 we were also ahead of the 1995 pace (ella formed on july 22) and finished with 11 named. 1969 had 18 tropical/subtropical cyclones.
yeah, i personally think we're in a hyper-active year. i'm a climate guy, though. to me there's a precedent for everything you see, if you look for it. limiting the domain of what can and does happen to the short period of well-recorded history is asking for surprises.
HF 0526z13july
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:31 AM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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My concern is that these are Cape Verde storms.We did not see that to this degree in the years that you mention.And there has been alot of rainfall in Africa.
| Ryan |
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| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:38 AM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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i have a Emily question..if she hits The Yucatan can she still make a turn toward the west florida coast??
Please give some insight,. thanks
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:56 AM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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the thing about the cv storms.. yeah, that's right. that'll be two to develop east of the islands prior to august if franklin develops, and that's rare. dennis developed as it reached the windwards. so yeah, that's some odd stuff.
as for emily hitting the yucatan then coming back to w florida... no. there's nothing to recurve the storm. maybe in texas or louisiana i'd keep an eyeball on emily... especially if i were in jamaica or cuba, the windwards, the north coast of south america, and nicaragua up to the yucatan. again, this one doesn't look like a florida threat.
HF 0556z13july
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:58 AM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Never say never, but it'd be pretty tough to make it back to the west Florida coast from the Yucutan. Opal in 1995 is the closest I can think of, and it formed near the Yucutan and ended up making landfall near where Dennis did the other day.
A storm forming in that vicinity and then moving to the NE is more likely to affect the west Florida coast than something moving west out of the Caribbean out of respect for inertial forces carrying the latter such storm continually to the west. It'd take an unusually strong trough reaching into the Gulf to result in such a path, no matter the storm, and you usually don't see those this time of year. For Emily? Not likely. For it to be a Florida threat, the initial predictions would have to bear out, something that looks rather unlikely at this point.
As for the debate on the "historic" start to the season -- I think that it's likely that something like this has happened before, like HF says. The satellite era is only about 40-50 years old, recon flights have a similar lifetime, and records from before the mid-1850s are pretty spotty. It may not have occured in our lifetime, but that does not mean that it hasn't happened before.
Ultimately though, all that matters for this season is that we have had a lot of storms thus far, all impacting land, and there doesn't appear to be anything to stem the tide of storms in the short-term. I figured we'd see a pretty active early July with an MJO cycle, but I'm not sure how much longer this will keep up. My best guess is that we'll have a fairly dull late July before kicking into gear once again around the end of the first week of August for the heart of the season. The way SSTs and shear are across the basin (and have been all season), however, it's going to take a trough taking hold across the region or an influx of dry Saharan air to really slow things down. When you have the two biggest contributors to development both favorable this early in the season, plus the requisite tropical waves to kick things off, you are going to see at least some development.
We've been helped by a monsoon trough-like feature across the basin for much of the season, whether in the SW Caribbean earlier in the season or now off of the coast of Africa. It's typically a feature you see with the East & (especially) West Pacific basins, but with it's presence and the added boost from the warm SSTs off of the coast of Africa and an endless supply of tropical waves, most everything that has been coming off of the continent lately has had a shot at developing.
I may post something to that effect to the blogs sometime Wednesday along with a look at Emily once again, but that's what I'm looking at right now.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:12 AM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Quick search of the NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Historical Hurricane Tracks. (1954-2004 only)
I found three storms within 125nm of Emily's beginning track point.
Arlene 7-31-1963 at 25 kts
Arthur 7-22-1990 at 25 kts
Bertha 7-05-1996 at 35 kts.
This was a quick, lat/ long, search using Emily's original track point from Advisory # 1.
There are many ways to utilize this search engine. I was mainly interested in the July storms (All Storm categories).
http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/
Searching HURDAT. I came across this storm.
Storm EMILY is number 6 of the year 1987
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Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 20 0 UTC 9.8N 51.3W -- deg -- mph -- kph 30 mph 45 kph 1008 mb Tropical Depression
September 20 6 UTC 10.4N 53.0W 290 deg 19 mph 31 kph 30 mph 45 kph 1007 mb Tropical Depression
September 20 12 UTC 10.9N 54.7W 285 deg 19 mph 31 kph 35 mph 55 kph 1006 mb Tropical Depression
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/easyhurdat_5102.html
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:11 AM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Looking at the IR-loop, it seems with this last convective burst that Emily might be trying to reorganize a little to the north? If she does this, she could miss land, but otherwise, landfall is imminent
[Edit: I suppose I should correct my misspelling, since it stirred quite an uproar!].
| Ryan |
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| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:44 AM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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if she misses land, she will intensify greatly, but i think a BArbados-St.Lucia-Grenada landfall is imminent as a moderate cat.1 hurricane..then it will strrenghten as it heads passed Jamaica and into the Yucatan to landfall as a cat.3 hurricane..after that its into Mexico/South Texas if it doesnt die over the Yucatan
what are other's opinions on this :confused :?:
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:46 AM |
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5 AM Update
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Emily continues holding together. Nearly symmetrical earlier last night Emily now appears more like a tadpole doing a U-turn.
It appears the the two disturbances behind Emily are interfering with the Outflow Channel on the Northern side of Emily.
IR satellite loop, through 0845Z indicates the systems east of Emily, may be pushing her toward the South American Coastline. 4 hours of satellite loop, shows that the distance between Emily and the coastline has dropped by nearly half. Taken into account the slight increase in the diameter of Emily's main circulation.
The NWS Key West Area Forecast Discussion, from 0728Z/ 3:28 AM EDT, mentions that "The Official National Hurricane Center Forecast Track Of Tropical Storm Emily Has Shifted South For Four Consecutive Advisories".
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/EYW/AFDEYW.0507130728
Official NHC products on Tropical Storm Emily can be found on the Main Page. Or by clicking on the map located in the left sidebar.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Return to Flight", launch of STS-114 and Space Shuttle Discovery is scheduled for 3:51 PM EDT this afternoon. Return to Flight Launch Coverage can be found here. http://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/launch/index.html
http://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/main/index.html
Tanking is scheduled to begin shortly.(delayed at 5:54 EDT)
Clock is at the T minus 6 hour mark and holding.
There are 10 hours and 4 minutes to scheduled launch.
At the time of this posting. 05:46 EDT
Windows Media Player shortcut for Launch Pad 39-A audio and video.
http://www.nasa.gov/55644main_NASATV_Windows.asx
Multimedia Link for STS-114.
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/114_schedule.html
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 10:52 AM |
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Re: 5 AM Update
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Man. At first I was expecting (with the initial TS Emily forecast) her to keep with the initial track, intensify slowly, cut through Haiti and/or Cuba, and curve North, taking a track similar to Charley's projections (just E of N, cutting right up along the Western coastline of the FL panhandle) prior to the sudden turn East. Now it looks more like a fish spinner, possibly an impact in the Yucatan.
Is she simply running on a "lean" mixture in the air, or is there a ridge/air mass impeding Northward motion? Or is this just "the way she's going?"
dude, gotta question that nomenclature. calling a caribbean storm a fish spinner is an oxymoron. a fish spinner refers to storms in the open atlantic that recurve and miss land areas. nobody gets hit by a fish spinner.. and yes, there are people in the yucatan. -HF
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:32 AM |
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Re: 5 AM Update
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If she does not crash in the area she is in now. She will probably do the Texas/Mexico thing. She looks ragged on the satellitte but then I am not sure about the date and time of the satellites I am looking at.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:46 AM |
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Re: 5 AM Update
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Emily doesn't look as health to me this morning. We'll have to see what happens with this storm as the day goes by.
Count me in with the crowd that thinks a seasn like this pobably has happened before. Not in recent history but there is a whole bunch of history prior to the late 1800's and 1900's to think about when records were not even kept very much.
Statistics are fun but only to a point. At least for me.
If a storm impacts my area, I really don't care if it's an early or late storm or the 14th named storm in July. It's still raining and blowing.
]
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 12:08 PM |
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Re: 5 AM Update
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Yeah, I see where you're coming from. I'd imagine the high rate of speed (normally prevalent in weaker storms that are on the verge of falling apart) is telling of impending dissolution.
When they said slow development, they weren't kidding. Emily's just plugging along, moving fast, but not intensifying. I'd give her 50/50 of making it over the islands in front of her.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 12:21 PM |
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Re: 5 AM Update
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I am looking at a blob about to exit the Yucatan/Mexican coast. Ordinarily in July we would be oohhing and blobwatching. But, I have to wonder if this blob, will somehow play into the Emily scenario, or if it is truly just a blob.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 12:24 PM |
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Re: 5 AM Update
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Yesterday afternoon, I think the mm5 showed 3 systems at 120 hrs - Emily in the SW GOM, "Franklin" to the East of the Windwards, and "Gert" in the Tropical Atlantic. Is this a viable scenario? Is it unprecidented? Just curious.
| EMS |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 12:37 PM |
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Re: 5 AM Update
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Recon suggests Emily is significantly weaker than estimated.
666
URNT12 KNHC 131212
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/11:47:50Z
B. 11 deg 12 min N
057 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1458 m
D. 45 kt
E. 325 deg 022 nm
F. 056 deg 041 kt
G. 324 deg 020 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1521 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.31 / 6 nm
P. AF304 0105A EMILY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 11:41:40 Z
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 12:51 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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If Emily is still a viable storm and than hits Yucatan, it can work its way around the periphery of the ridge and hit the north Gulf coast- i don't know about the western part of Florida other than the panhandle (again)
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 01:00 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Quote:
...otherwise, landfall is eminent.
Mount Rushmore is eminent. The NY skyline is eminent. People like Clark, MikeC, HankFrank etc are eminent meterological resources on this board.
If Emily is about to hit land, then landfall is imminent.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 01:13 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Quote:Quote:
...otherwise, landfall is eminent.
Mount Rushmore is eminent. The NY skyline is eminent. People like Clark, MikeC, HankFrank etc are eminent meterological resources on this board.
If Emily is about to hit land, then landfall is imminent.
Whut due you mean buy that? LOL
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 01:25 PM |
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Re: Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also
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If Emily crosses the Yucatan, could she turn north and end up hitting the upper Texas coast?
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 01:39 PM |
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Launch
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I know this is totally off subject but, those of you here in Florida...don't forget to look to the skies this afternoon. The launch is suppose to be at 3:51 p.m.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 01:46 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Quote:
If Emily is about to hit land, then landfall is imminent.
That's why I majored in chemistry... Seriously though, thanks for the comment. I absoutely cannot stand homonym errors and was unaware imminent was a homonym (or misspelled).
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 01:48 PM |
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Re: Launch
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Just in time for our daily thunderstorm....
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 02:19 PM |
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emily/yucatan
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I will be very upset if Playa Del Carmen gets hit.I still have many good friends there.Some of them have sent me emails asking if I want a visit from them ,say........This Monday.All the Corona ads you see are filmed there.
| devgirl00 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 02:22 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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hey yall, i'm new. forgive me for my lack of understanding -- i'm here to learn more than anything.
is it true, at least it seems to me, that the Big Ones are the Cape Verde storms. Why would that be?
If I'm in the wrong forum, let me know and I'll move.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 02:31 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Simply put, Cape Verde storms travel across the entire north atlantic, and are given alot of time and space to develop.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 02:51 PM |
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Re: Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also
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11 am potential track maps for TS Emily out at www.wunderground.com
Are these the same forecasts we see on the left hand column of this site? They look a bit different ...
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 02:55 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Just to add to Lysis's point longer period of travel while the below is taking place:
All hurricanes form from preexisting cloud clusters. Somehow though these clusters need to start spining. More importantly however, where do the clouds come from? Well, the clouds for the most part form along a line of convergence known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ. Here the air converges and is lifted up to form clouds. You may have heard of the ITCZ referred to as the monsoon trough. The monsoon trough is only one type of ITCZ though, there are two types, a trade wind and a monsoon ITCZ. Besides these troughs thunderstorm clusters can form in a multitude of other ways, such as the easterly waves that come off Africa, and along the southern ends of stalled midlatitude fronts. The easterly waves that come from Africa form along the ITCZ there and then migrate off the coast working their way across the Atlantic and then into the Pacific. Along the way they may form into a hurricane in either ocean basin. The ITCZ migrates north and south throughout the year roughly between 20 degrees north and 20 south, although its average position is 5 degrees north. The trough is found in the summer hemisphere and serves as a region of convergence. Those basins that were mentioned to have two peaks of formation have those because the trough makes two passes through those regions, once heading north, the other heading south. To form a hurricane these cloud clusters must persist for a long period of time, generally serveral days. Those systems that persist for long periods of time tend to generate a MCV (mesoscale convective vortex). This is a warm core vortex that forms in the altostratus deck of the system somewhere around 300 to 700 millibars. Below this vortex the system often has a cold core. Remember, cold here is relative, by cold we may mean the core is 30 degrees C while the surroundings are 31 degrees C or something to that effect. Now, somehow in hurricane development this vortex migrates to the surface and turns the surface into a warm core system. How this transition is made is one of the major unknown areas of hurricane formation. However, once the core is at the surface it is now in a position to tap into the oceanic latent heat energy. Not all MCV's turn into hurricanes and much research still goes into determining what differentiates forming from non-forming MCV's. The ITCZ is also a source of spin up. Winds approach it from different directions at the surface and these differences help to start cloud cluster rotation. This spin mechanism is also found at the ends of stalled fronts and in easterly waves.
| Thunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 03:02 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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What he said...
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 03:02 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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I happen to have, well, not quite a front row seat, but close enough: 5th floor (roof) of the South parking garage at the UCF Orlando campus. Last time I saw a launch, it was at night, and we were able to hear the roar of the boosters, see the Eastern sky light up, and then see the shuttle rise on a huge tongue of flame.Since it's a day launch, the shuttle's sound will probably be lost in the noise clutter of a university in full swing. The visuals should be just as breathtaking though.
| DrewC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 03:03 PM |
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Re: 5 AM Update
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Wingman, a few years back, there were 5 storms lined up in the Atlantic at one time. I believe it was 1997, but the years all blur together after a while. The satellite image of all five in a perfect row was my computer's desktop for years.
Drew
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 03:13 PM |
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Re: 5 AM Update
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i am not sure, but i believe it was sept of 96
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 03:18 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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I have to say I'm relieved with Emily's forecasted path...I was sweating about my trip to Chicago. Leaving today and coming back Monday. Looks like I'll get to enjoy my vacation as planned!
I'll probably be back in time for Franklin's debut, LOL.I hope things work out and the shuttle can take off as planned. We usually watch it from Lake Hollingsworth (I like in Lakeland, FL) but I think the storms will be coming inland at the time of liftoff, so I'll just watch it on TV! Can't believe the cockpit window fell off and hit some of those tiles!
I'm sure it will be a safe takeoff and I'll be keeping the crew in my thoughts and prayers.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 03:19 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Yeah I work at the Stennis Space Center where we test and certify all the Shuttle liquid propellant engines (SSME).. we'll be watching the NASA link today for the launch... needless to say, we're ready to get back in the space travel business... there is anxiety however as with every launch... space travel is a VERY risky business to say the least and anyone to say otherwise is clueless.... I'm in the safety business I think that qualifies me to comment accordingly... hopefully the weather will not be an issue as our window of opportunity for launch today is not very long... the feeling at the site today is this perhaps should be the safest launch in history..
It takes an incredible amount of courage to do what the astronauts do...
good luck and god speed Discovery
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 03:21 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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the 11 am forcast track has Grenada in the bulleye... that poor country lost 90% of its homes to IVAN....
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 03:55 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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can someone please send me the link too joe bastardi's forecast for today. thank you!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 03:59 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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Quote:Quote:
If Emily is about to hit land, then landfall is imminent.
That's why I majored in chemistry... Seriously though, thanks for the comment. I absoutely cannot stand homonym errors and was unaware imminent was a homonym (or misspelled).
It was just kind of fresh in my mind because there was a post this weekend during Dennis where someone had mentioned a weather newsperson who kept saying it on TV.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:23 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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11am Discussion:
FOR A STORM MOVING WESTWARD AT ALMOST 20 KT...THERE IS A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF WIND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTING UP TO 56 KT AT 850 MB IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AT LEAST 45 KT
AT THE SURFACE...AND THE FLIGHT CREW HAS VISUALLY ESTIMATED WINDS OF 55 KT. GIVEN THIS...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. INCIDENTALLY...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA
CONFIRM THE RAIN-FLAGGED BUT ESSENTIALLY CORRECT QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE 09Z PASS. EMILY CONTINUES ON A STUBBORN WESTWARD TRACK...270/17. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE TRACK MODELS HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET. CLEARLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAN EXPECTED. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET ON THE NORTH...AND NOGAPS ON THE
SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF EMILY IS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE NEAR THE CORE...AND I PRESUME THAT THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UPPER WINDS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IF EMILY DOES NOT GAIN SOME LATITUDE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT COULD LOSE A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND END UP CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FORECAST.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:26 PM |
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Re: analog for emily?
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I think that the weather is very "iffy" for the launch today. It's already rained at KSC and afternoon thunder showers are a rountine around there.
THere are so many contingincies pertaining to weather. MIght get lucky and hit a clear spot however.
It would be nice to be back in space again.
| CarlSpackler |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:28 PM |
|
|
Re: analog for emily?
|
just for clarifiction, it was NOT a cockpit window that fell, it was a cover that goes over the windows until shortly before lift off. it souds even worse to think they could have the window fall out of the shuttle.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:28 PM |
|
Re: analog for emily?
|
I think JB's link is on the main page otherwise it is available through Yahoo.com./weather.
Emily, or what is posing as Emily, seems to be heading due west right now, and the wnw steering currents are about 12 hours ahead of it. NHC stated in the 11am discussion it could lose much of its moisture flow from the south and it already has dry air in from the north.
This area is the classic graveyard area for systems, and Emily may not survive. That is a distinct possibility. If it does, and that may happen too as the LLC will remain off shore as it skirts the coast,then it will track wnw from there to the Yucatan in whatever shape it is in...Still spec. exists that Emily will grow up into a big girl, but I'm not convinced.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:30 PM |
|
|
Blob off the NC coast...
|
It looks like simply some Divergent flow causing storms, but anyone else peeked at it to see if something more might be there?
What's left of Dennis continues to look impressive, and drifting ever so slowly south.
oh did the wanna-be potential depression number 6 die out?
-Mark
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:38 PM |
|
|
Launch doubtful
|
Here is a great link to view current conditions just a few miles from the Space Center:
http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/rg-weather.html
If you scroll to the bottom, you will see local Radar and Sat feeds.
Currently there is a huge rain cloud overhead, I putting today's launch @ 25% go.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:45 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
12Z UKMET and CMC both move Emily back up into Cuba... for all in NewOrleans the UKMET says Emily will see you in 6 days...data fields on the CMC stopped at 72 hours
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
pou
ring rain here guys!
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 04:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
rain alot of rain here in nsb and moving south towards the cape
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:07 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Nice and clear here in East Orlando.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:08 PM |
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
Right, FSU in run mode now shows a jump N from current 11.2 to about 14N in 24 hours. I suppose a ridge breakdown in a similar location to what occurred w/ Dennis is possible? The pattern seems to be close. I am guessing that Emily might get drawn north somewhat. The path and intensity is not the same, I realize. I just think the models underestimate the mid-latitude troughs. Therefore, me not knowing anything, I think Emily will curve northward more than some of the southerly models show. Thoughts?
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:09 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Found the 12z UKMET very fascinating. However, it is the same model that stubbornly insisted Dennis would hit 'Nawlins too. Should be interesting over the next 12 hours or so to see if any other models join the UK and CMC.
If any met would like to speculate why these two models shifted north, I would be very interested. The CMC has consistently been north, but the 12z shift for the UK was more drastic.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:16 PM |
|
|
Re: analog for emily?
|
Quote:
It was just kind of fresh in my mind because there was a post this weekend during Dennis where someone had mentioned a weather newsperson who kept saying it on TV.
Yeah - that was me who pointed it out. I'm a former English education major, so grammatical errors jab under my skin
At any rate, just thought I'd answer that. Back to work for me, and Mike, I'm aiming to have you the goods soon.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:25 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Yeah well the scary part is that they eventually get one right... guess we'll have to start looking for others to trend more north.. nothing surprises me any more with these TCs...
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:45 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
If this trend continues, you can blame me for it, Frank. Past day or so I've been feeling confident that the eastern gulf, basically your area (Biloxi) the Florida peninsula would avoid this one. I thought to myself last night, "Oh good, at least the folks in the Panhandle won't have to worry about this storm."
oops...
Tropical systems do this just to spite me. As soon as I am "sure" they switch it up. 
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:49 PM |
|
|
Shuttle Launch Scrubbed
|
Today's Shuttle launch has been scrubbed at about 1:35pm due to a faulty fuel sensor in the main fuel tank......
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:51 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
the way this hurricane season is going I think they'll be enough blame for everybody to participate in.... the thing I've learned over the years, and especially after Elena 85... take nothing for granted....
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:52 PM |
|
Re: Shuttle Launch Scrubbed
|
Quote:
Today's Shuttle launch has been scrubbed at about 1:35pm due to a faulty fuel sensor in the main fuel tank......
embarrassing
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:53 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
just got word that the shuttle launch has been scrubbed for today.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:53 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Probably more than a 24 hour turnaround to get it back in the count...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:54 PM |
|
|
Weather - Discovery
|
Well, unfortunately, the Discovery will not be launching today...not due to weather. Faulty fuel tank sensors have scrubbed the launch. No date set for a new launch yet. NASA: "IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO REMEDY PROBLEM". Better safe than sorry, that's for sure.
Looks like the inland storms are going to pop sometime soon; most likely on my way to the airport.
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:55 PM |
|
Re: Shuttle Launch Scrubbed
|
Alrighty then, I'm officially addicted to this website. I couldn't connect/refresh for about 10 minutes and started to feel withdrawals. Imagine how bad it would have been if a hurricane landfall had been imminent. (sure
hope I spelled it correctly).
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 05:59 PM |
|
Re: Weather - Discovery
|
yeah they have four liquid level sensors in the large external fuel tank that contains liquid hydrogen... the launch commit criteria requires all four to be working ... apparently one was not... could be sensor in the tank which would be bad news or perhaps a wiring problem, or even software issue...
I'm assuming this is the problem from info I'm getting from KSC... but not 100% positive... regardless, safety of fiight comes first as it should...
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Weather - Discovery
|
I am bummed. I was looking forward to the launch. Even had my video camera at work with me today. Darn.
| Neuro |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:08 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Newbie Question:
These computer maps have very different UKMETs
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=5&Year=2005 (click on last to get most recent)
What's the difference?
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:12 PM |
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
One is up to date the other is not. The one from weatherunderground is current.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
2pm is out. "Emily is not strengthening". Hurricane watches discontinued.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:17 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
you are not using the latest run out to 144 hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:18 PM |
|
Re: Weather - Discovery
|
well if they can't get access to the sensor they will have to roll back to the VAB.... big hit to schedule unfortunately if this comes to fruition..
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:29 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
it's time for tx and mehico to worry , we can get back to work
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:30 PM |
Re: Model mania
|
this looks like joe bastardi's forcast everytime one gets close
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Shuttle Launch Scrubbed
|
Perhaps since we have 1. eminent, 2. imminent, 3. immanent; we should simply use the word expected.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:41 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
The midlevel ridge to the N of Emily is sliding east. Its now located near 52W compared to yesterdays 58-60W. Emily has already jumped just N of west and will begin moving wnw to almost nw at times. There is a strong mid and upper high in the gulf with a branch extending to the midatlantic. A trough extends in the atlantic down to the bahamas to eastern cuba where a weak midlevel low is. This combined with Emily being sw of the small ridge will push her wnw-nw. Computer models are split almost from the start. Nogaps ( genereally the best model in the tropics) continues Emily more w-wnw and takes her towards belieze and the Yucitan......GFS and GFDL takes her near Jamaica and near Cancun,Mex or just north of there. Canadian and UkMet are towards the SE gulf on a track very simular to Dennis. Current thinking is that the ridge over the Gulf will stay in place for awhile longer and the ridge over the midatlantic will be strong but not maybe as strong as forecasted earlier. Also this ridge might be slightly further off in the atlantic. So there should be a weakness that continues near the bahamas and south florida. Dennis remenents will continue over the Ohio valley and get stretched out between the ridges to its south and east and a trough coming into the plains and great lakes by early this weekend.
I feel there is more toss up to what Emily might do then 24 hrs ago when I felt she will stay south and follow what the current Nogaps was saying...and it still could. The weak trough near Cuba and the bahamas stretching in the atlantic might not pick her up enough to bring her towards Cuba. Also though I think the ridge off the mid-atlantic might be further out by the weekend. The Gulf ridge I feel will win out over the midatlantic one causeing more weakness then forcasted over the bahamas. This should drive Emily more towards Cuba and very simular to Dennis. Now not sure yet on landfall in the U.S. The ridge will be strong in the Gulf and could then steer Emily more west towards the Cancun area and Texas-Mexico or it could find even more weakness and head N. Right now its hard to tell.
Only way for this system to head up to Florida or the Bahamas would be for a stronger trough off the bahamas and florida and the ridge in the gulf to slide alittle more W ( which isnt out of the question).
Overall expect a wnw-nw path to near Jamaica and Cuba for now then more w feeling the ridge in the gulf.........
scottsvb
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:43 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
I just wanted to chime in and let y'all know that some of the 'we' on this board are indeed living in Texas (dunno about Mexico). Go on to work tho, I am not fixin to worry about Emily just yet. Way too early.
'shana
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 06:59 PM |
|
|
Low Level Center
|
Is it just me, or does it seem the low level center is on the edge of the convection in the last few visible images even rearing its head for a few secs?
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:00 PM |
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
Based on the latest sat pics looks like Emily is beginning to strengthen as she heads for Greneda, also looks like a little bit N of due west now.
TG
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:07 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
sorry we texans
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:30 PM |
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
Quote:
I just wanted to chime in and let y'all know that some of the 'we' on this board are indeed living in Texas (dunno about Mexico). Go on to work tho, I am not fixin to worry about Emily just yet. Way too early.
I agree, Shana... my first response to JR's post was "ppffftttt"..
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
newbie question
This morning I noticed a piece of the cloud mass of Emily starting to look like it was moving off on its own to the north. This afternoon it looks even more so, and the original cloud mass south of it has become more rounded. So is this northern piece still an integral part of Emily, or is it going to become something separate? Does that ever happen?
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:41 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
If emily was going to go where the ukmet has it going it would already at 2pm adv have to be going wnw nw already and as of 2pm its still due west.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:46 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Also the ukmet and gdfl have been off even on dennis.If its not going west NW by 5pm ADV your therory scot is out the window
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:52 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Not necessarily. Just because the 12hr position may be a little bit off doesn't mean that things won't change and the 120hr position won't end up less correct. It usually doesn't happen, but to blindly state something like that without giving any physical reasoning behind it just doesn't pass muster.
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:53 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
This is a newbie answer...
I think what you are seeing is the outflow of the cyclone to the north, its still "part of the storm" but it is behaving in a manner that is not the norm. The center of circulation in this storm is very weird I think. It seems like the NE quadrant is really lacking clouds structure with the southern regions of the cyclone and the eastern regions being better defined. I believe that the outflow, if indeed thats what I am seeing to the north and the east, projecting itself in the manner it is indicates a good chance of strengthening to come. The most inhibiting thing that I am seeing near term for strengthening is the dry air in front of the storm.
I do not actually know what I am talking about, I am simply guessing. (I would say educated guessing, but I am not that confident.)
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:55 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
the wnw -nw motion is under way..although look for the 5 to officially say w as the motion change is only very recently confirmed in sat pix.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:56 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
No worries and apology accepted (but truly not needed) I just wanted to remind the board at large, while we're not in a crisis situation... that there are forum members from places *other* than Florida here
'shana
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
I do see a 'lift' towards the north as Emily appears ready to take that jog northward as the models had indicated earlier then going W-NW. I'm surprised at the UKMET model having Emily darting across Cuba.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 07:57 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
well im going by the other ones as well and ukmet has had it wrong since the start as they have all the other storms.
I personally by looking at the other runs at the same time as ukmet think it has it way too far north.
And as always on here the mets like to go against the noaa as when they get it right once they can say see.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 08:00 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Quote:
the wnw -nw motion is under way..although look for the 5 to officially say w as the motion change is only very recently confirmed in sat pix.
well even the nws has been waiting on some sort of wnw.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 08:06 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
hello and im sorry but living in florida and going through the hurricanes we had to encounter last year...i think its about time that somewhere else got hit...weve had our fair share...not saying i wish you any danger or harm...but there was alot of damage done to florida last year and this year and we dont need anymore...theres my 2 cents...i do apologize if anyone gets offended but imsure there are others who agree with me...
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 08:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
Quote:
hello and im sorry but living in florida and going through the hurricanes we had to encounter last year...i think its about time that somewhere else got hit...weve had our fair share...not saying i wish you any danger or harm...but there was alot of damage done to florida last year and this year and we dont need anymore...theres my 2 cents...i do apologize if anyone gets offended but imsure there are others who agree with me...
No offense taken, but just a clarification --
I can't speak for Shana, but I think the issue with the earlier post wasn't so much the prediction of a Texas landfall (we could actually use the rain, without the wind of course...
), but rather alluding that storms headed away from Florida aren't as relevant to the people who post here....Then again, this is the Central Florida Hurricane Center...
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 08:22 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
personally i like certian models and this year nogaps and gdfl are ones i like and all but the ukmet has it going west at the end of the 5 day which i know can change i do trust them more then others.
As far as scott's forcast i think he hit it on the head he has it going anywhere from the Yucatan to florida so i think he has ot covered
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 08:33 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
5pm is out no stronger nor any north movement yet.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 08:35 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Allison said it for me
And we're here in the Central Florida Hurricane Center because there's more good info here than anywhere else. I want to *know* when it's time to get ready for imminent inclement weather delivered by a named storm. (Rather than the normal havoc caused by unnamed storms.)
'shana
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 08:36 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
and the cone of error does have cuba in it but then west after that no Florida area not even the keys.Better go NW soon or it will have to go east some to make some peoples prediction.
I would just love to see it hit nobody as life is more important then being right.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 08:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
anyone have a link of africas sat?
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
question could those quakes in puerto rico and everywhere else be shaking up these oceans? and does that have a effect on hurricanes?
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
Quote:
anyone have a link of africas sat?
http://www.weather.com/maps/africaandmiddleeast.html
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
meteosat is only updated every eight hours or something, so it allways looks a little screwy.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:22 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
I don't know about the rest of y'all, but I would take all of our 2004 hurricanes again if they kept another Galveston, Camille or Andrew from landing!!
Talk about horror! I would never wish one of these monsters on someone else just because we had a rough year last year. Granted, the west coast and panhandle had it worse than we did in Central Fla, but still nothing like those buzz saws!
And I'm from Texas, too!
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:31 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Quote:
question could those quakes in puerto rico and everywhere else be shaking up these oceans? and does that have a effect on hurricanes?
Wow.. a friend of mine has that theory, that seismic activity makes water warmer than usual... I told him he was nuts and he better not say that aloud to anyone...LOL
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:34 PM |
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
Quote:
meteosat is only updated every eight hours or something, so it allways looks a little screwy.
Yep, every six hours, so it tends to take bigger jumps, because on a loop, you are looking at almost three days worth of movement.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:40 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
Quote:Quote:
question could those quakes in puerto rico and everywhere else be shaking up these oceans? and does that have a effect on hurricanes?
Wow.. a friend of mine has that theory, that seismic activity makes water warmer than usual... I told him he was nuts and he better not say that aloud to anyone...LOL
He is nuts. Earthquakes occur, for the most part, where the water is coldest in the ocean...on the sea floor. Now I say the for the most part because some do occur in warmer waters. But if anything, it would cause the cold water to move. I wouldn't see any positive effect on hurricanes, maybe if a volcano heated the water enough constantly, close enough to the surface.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:42 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
I don't know about the rest of y'all, but I would take all of our 2004 hurricanes again if they kept another Galveston, Camille or Andrew from landing!!
Talk about horror! I would never wish one of these monsters on someone else just because we had a rough year last year. Granted, the west coast and panhandle had it worse than we did in Central Fla, but still nothing like those buzz saws!
And I'm from Texas, too!
On a very local scale... charley is up there. What seperates him, aside from damage of a somewhat lesser degree, is that we got help the next day... instead of the next month like we did with Andrew.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:44 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
ralphfl, I ask you to provide some proof of your statement that the mets here love to go against NOAA. That, in fact, is not the case. Most of the time, our tracks are very much in line with what the hurricane center forecasts. For the entire life of Dennis, the mets. here were calling for a Florida landfall, something you didn't see from a lot of other forecasts -- except the NHC. And, when the NHC gets one right, we are the first ones to give credit where credit is due (perhaps you forgot Dennis already?)...and when they get it wrong, we are there tempering the lashing that they undoubtedly take. For an example of that, see Charley from last year.
Perhaps you have us confused with other organizations, such as the aforementioned (by you!) Joe Bastardi, who quite often is miles away from NOAA/NHC. Please do not make statements that cannot be justified, as it detracts from the job that people on here are trying to do -- and the conversation at large.
Thanks.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
There is some dissention where appropriate; however everything is in good taste. People remember the bad forecasts forever (like what’s his name on channel six back in 92’ saying, “you heard it here folks, we are NOT having a hurricane.”...heh), and don’t even think about the good ones.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 09:58 PM |
|
|
Emily at 6 p.m
|
My orginal thoughts don't seem too far out about a storm shooting westward around the poleward axis of the subtropical ridge. The caribbean seems to be clearing of any pre-existing shear, and with a building gulf ridge I doubt this storm will make any form of recurvature. Though I am entitled to my doubts by CFHC. SST'S are nice and warm especially in by the Yucatan channel though there is some slightly cooler water by the ABC islands, but I don't think Emily will stay that close to south america. Once past the leeward islands intensification looks good.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 10:12 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Big, big difference in Charley's winds vs Camille's and Andrew's. The latter two...Camill'e's...200+, Andrew's...195+. As I stated before, they were buzz saws! Charley's was 145.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 10:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
Cammile was 190
Andrew was (revised and estimated) 165
Charley was 150 at captiva (for the bugs and mangroves) and weakening to 145mph over downtown Punta Gorda.
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 10:35 PM |
|
|
Re: Model mania
|
One other thing ralphfl, some of the discussions on here by the Mets are done in a sort of "Devils Advocate" type role. Tropical Systems are highly erratic and a nice discussion about possible pattern changes that could effect a landfall is educational and welcomed. Forecasters often look at the synoptic pattern and make a judgement based on the patterns, but some, Stewart at NHC comes to mind, throw in the possible "fly in the ointment" scenario to keep us all honest. I enjoy the discussions of our Mets and hope they continue but the always give credence to the NHC forecast. Isn't that what Joe B does and why he so wildly heralded? He looks at patterns and makes his own judgements even though you have to pay to see him prognosticate and he usual has a personal jab at the NHC everytime he does it. I could not help but laugh when he made a comment on Yahoo yesterday that had Dennis hit here, he would have made his forecast. I can't see the NHC throwing a party because they were right, and Pensacola got pounded again.
To our Texas friends, I hear what you are saying. I enjoy tracking storms, even when they do not threaten us but I won't be burning the midnight oil when a storm is heading for Texas, unless it is a monster. No offense and I would not expect you to burn that oil for a Florida hit. Our concern is for our State and not so much Texas and it is not personal. I do feel for any area that is under the gun.
Anyways, just my humbe opinion.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 10:50 PM |
|
Re: Model mania
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Here's hoping Emily is no Charley!
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 10:51 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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I refer all to this site in reference to Camille:http://www.maritimemuseum.org/camille
At this time I'm unable to find the documentation re:Andrew. Dinnertime!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:13 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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Quote:
Cammile was 190
Andrew was (revised and estimated) 165
Charley was 150 at captiva (for the bugs and mangroves) and weakening to 145mph over downtown Punta Gorda.
Some statistics on Camille.
In the area of the coast about 10 miles long between Waveland and Long Beach, NHC estimates gusts from Hurricane Camille were between 210-220mph, with 190mph sustained winds. For 10 miles to the east of that, about to Biloxi, winds reached 180mph. The wind and coastal surge were so powerful that even plumbing systems were ripped out of concrete foundations. Highest areas of storm surge were 22-25ft, and in places water went over several miles inland - the highest ever in the US - and this is not counting the wave heights over the surge. The web has a story of a house two miles inland that was completely submerged. Pressure was the 2nd lowest recorded ever (1935 hurricane the other): several miles to the right of the eye, 909mb, in Bay St. Louis.
About 20 miles to the east, the Biloxi-Ocean Springs bridge had its pilings moved around. Different pieces of the bridge were moved around - a couple feet higher, or to the side. In order to get people across the police had put what looked to me like sheets of plywood or something between these places. I'll never forget that sight.
My mom and dad had decided to pile us all in the car (six kids) and we drove as far west as we could to see the damage (kind of obnoxious, in retrospect; sight-seeing). The bridge was as far as they would let us go, since we weren't residents of Ocean Springs or points west.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:20 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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I remember Camielle as well. She plowed down my father's little corn patch and we were in the panhandle of Florida! I have a question about the Satellite loops from the NWS. I keep getting flashes of color in the margins on the infrared loops and if I click on a still the picture is distorted like a double exposure. Is this a problem from the satellites or is it the web sites that the pictures are downloaded to, or do I have a java problem that needs fixing? It is very aggravating to try to see anything important and keeps me from enjoying the tracking game. Guessing where the storm will go before checking on the CFHC site to see what every one else is saying. ( My personal game).
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:24 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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Quote:
To our Texas friends, I hear what you are saying. I enjoy tracking storms, even when they do not threaten us but I won't be burning the midnight oil when a storm is heading for Texas, unless it is a monster. No offense and I would not expect you to burn that oil for a Florida hit. Our concern is for our State and not so much Texas and it is not personal. I do feel for any area that is under the gun.
Heh... so true! The boards weren't exactly lit up when Claudette came a-knockin' 2 years ago... (not that a little Cat 1 even compares to what FL has experienced recently....) Granted, though, there was considerably more interest when the remnants of Ivan came back around into LA/TX last year....
Regardless, I always enjoy coming here to absorb the tons of information, analysis, opinions and speculations of all those who know more than me about these things... Even when it's not a Florida storm, the mets here can almost always explain it better than my local mets on TV (except Neil Frank, of course...)
I suppose, in a way, the people from Texas may benefit from these boards more during a storm than people from Florida -- we still get the good info, without having to wade through all the overwrought, one-time posters....
And just to keep this on-topic before I get smacked around by the mods,
... Emily has had a big blow-up of convection in the last few frames, but there's dry air ahead of her.Smack
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Am I correct that, if she remains weak, she's more likely to stay to the south and out of the upper-level steering?
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:32 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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got a nice spin too her, is she going too the prom. we should get her for fui. hopefully she doesnt get any puerto rican rum in her.lol
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:35 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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Quote:
Pressure was the 2nd lowest recorded ever (1935 hurricane the other): several miles to the right of the eye, 909mb, in Bay St. Louis.
I could've sworn that Gilbert was the lowest-ever recorded pressure (888mb)...
Or are we talking about lowest at landfall?
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:39 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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I will probably get slammed for this... but reading statistics like that from Camille should put things in perspective. All you inlanders... God bless you... only have but a trite taste. The "I went through three hurricanes" defense (I am not saying anyone used it just now) is getting a little old. If you went through three, then the truth is, you are probably too inland to complain. Now… of course everyone’s personal experience ultimately defines their reality. No one died in my family, so the family that had someone die in Orlando or Polk county had it considerably worse than I, despite incremental windspeed. Never the less, Cat 1's and 2's, while stressful and certainly destructive, should be virtually cherished.
*emotionally prepares for perhapes the biggest verbal lashing of life*
EDIT: Yeah, that was pressure at landfall.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:41 PM |
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Big Girl?
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Emily (I love this storm, my daughter's name is Emily) is really beginning to look like a big girl. I think we will have our second hurricane by late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
| spencercape |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:44 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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Funny as I thought the mets here went too much with the NHC at times, but in watching the board for over a year, and posting for less than a month, I have been suitably impressed by Clark and most of the others.... Ralph's tensions would more appropriately directed at Bastardi (who might as well be predicting landfall in North Dakota) and at TWC mets (who I believe blindly follow NHC and really do a poor job of thinking on their own. Ex: Charley even when the images were in front of them).
Clark and the other mets here give very valuable opinions and when appropriate alternative theory... and as for the models, I think if you look not just at this year, but over time, you'll find the models all do well under certain situations and poorly under others.. there is NO model that works ALL the time.
| spencercape |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:46 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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Quote:
I will probably get slammed for this... but reading statistics like that from Camille should put things in perspective. All you inlanders... God bless you... only have but a trite taste. The "I went through three hurricanes" defense (I am not saying anyone used it just now) is getting a little old. If you went through three, then the truth is, you are probably too inland to complain. Now… of course everyone’s personal experience ultimately defines their reality. No one died in my family, so the family that had someone die in Orlando or Polk county had it considerably worse than I, despite incremental windspeed. Never the less, Cat 1's and 2's, while stressful and certainly destructive, should be virtually cherished.
*emotionally prepares for perhapes the biggest verbal lashing of life*
EDIT: Yeah, that was pressure at landfall.
WELL SAID
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:48 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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There were some comments yesterday… and you guys need to be real careful about what you say about Joe. I mean… what if the guy is lurking or something? While that is doubtful… he is certainly much more intelligent and much more seasoned than most all of us. A second opinion, even if it is sometimes wrong, is always a good thing.
EDIT: WELL SAID
oh, ... thanks.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:50 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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Lysis, you do make a valid point. I also see valid points of reference to what Allison and some others are saying. Lets not let this become a back and forth match however. Damage and wind speeds are one thing but how one deals with the damage, etc is another. Sure a Cat 3 at the coast is probably way different far inland, but then remember Ivan and the tornados that came along.
| spencercape |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:53 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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Lysis....
I don't really care if he's lurking.... I do know that he's a degreed met, that he's worked at Accuweather for many years and moved up through the ranks to senior status, and I know he's GOT to be very good at what he does in order to achieve that.
I do think, however, he's now at a point where his continued "rise" will now be accomplished through gaining more attention, and the way he's going about it is stepping out on a limb (predicting things others wouldn't), creating "controversy" and generally grandstanding/overacting. So, for me, it's hard to take him seriously any longer.
I don't question his experience and abilities whatsoever, I just question his motives at this point.
And I don't think I am alone.
EDIT:Like I said: It's his methods I question, not his experience.... and the people here who are negative about _________ (fill in the blank) either don't understand or just like to stir the pot. The mets here are just as good (or better) than Joe, than anyone at TWC, and certainly any of us amateurs.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 13 2005 11:54 PM |
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Re: Model mania
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Exactly Storm Cooper... it is all relative. And that means that if we were more fortunate than others, we need to not complain. It is ok to tell a story... or even boast sometimes (look at my sig). But never use any storm as an excuse or to gain respect.
EDIT: Fair... but people were just over the top yesterday. The fact is, it would be an honor for him to "lurk" here... and people were making fun of him as a person and not as a meteorologist.
EDIT II: and just to point out... I have no idea if Joe Bastardi is lurking here or not. He probably isn't. I just said that, so don't run with it.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:07 AM |
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trite taste
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Ask the people in Hardee & Desoto counties if they felt the effects of Charley were only a "trite taste".
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:10 AM |
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Re: trite taste
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Pm me if you have a problem with what I said, as I would be happy to talk to you about it (really!
) ... I don't want to jack the main thread.EDIT: ...especially now that Storm Coopers pulled out the red ink. Ouch.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:14 AM |
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Re: trite taste
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This has to stop now. Everyone understands where I am coming from I think.
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:20 AM |
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Re: Model mania
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My question about Joe Bastardi would be this: Does he really believe, deep in his heart, in what he is forecasting? You know peoples lives are at stake here and to be honest I will never make a decision based on what some renegade weatherman has to say...I dont care how many degrees he has. As far as I'm concerned ,and Im saying this knowing that I am a total layman , his forecasts are a joke to me. I can't believe as many people defend him as they do. I ,for the life of me, don't see what is so wrong with following what the NHC says. You want to bring up Charley? I'll tell you cone of error...it's there for a reason. EVERYONE down there should have been prepared. As has been said about a million times, a hurricane is not a thin line or a point. Can anyone here tell me they don't think the NHC is trying to serve the people out there by giving the best, most accurate forecast that they can? don't you think they know the responsibility they have? i don't think joe bastardi realizes the one he has.... or is this some kind of competition to see whos right? I will say this ,i have alot of confidence in the NHC's forecasts and I have the most respect for the meteorologists who post on this site but I have neither for Joe Bastardi. Oh, and i hope hes lurking
| Girlnascar |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:22 AM |
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Re: trite taste
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This discussion is really ticking me off....how does one person know the "trite" level from one person to another. Well heck how about throwing in the Xenia Ohio killer tornadoes in this pot, how would my trite 3 hit hurricane season from 2004 plus, tornadoes fit in the trite definition.
PS you probably won't post this but venting!
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:25 AM |
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Re: Model mania
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the basartdi reference was low, man. You are totally right with charley. Of course he totaly believes it. That is what bieng a strong met and sticking to your guns (but not afraid to admit when you are wrong) is all about! I think the reasoning behind Joe is that he wants to remain consistent which, (regardless of the excellent job that they pulled off with Dennis) the NHC is sometimes not so good at. Just like he was visually showing us the other day... it is all balance. The beauty of it is... if you don't like Joe, you can always stick with the NHC.
EDIT: Now I am sorry I posted that. Girlnascar... listen to storm cooper, you will. Lest you invoke the wrath of the red ink.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: trite taste
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OK. As I have said I really can see everyones point but this is getting out of hand and becoming personal between some. Thus it shall end here. If you have issues with someone on the board use the PM feature, otherwise lets change the direction of this now.
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: Model mania
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If you are referring to "********" that was a typo..i editted it as soon as i saw it
| spencercape |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:30 AM |
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Re: Model mania *DELETED*
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Post deleted by spencercape
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:31 AM |
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Re: Model mania
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So.....how about this systems out there in the Atlantic?
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:34 AM |
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Re: trite taste
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Please move these conversations to the private message system or it will be necessary to clear this entire thread.
We have storms to track and debate, not the merits of weather professionals. If you weren't aware, a strong tropical storm is making landfall in the windward islands and looks very impressive on the WATL-IR4 loop. Let's talk about that.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:35 AM |
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Re: trite taste
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Wait, you mean there are storms in the Atlantic? When did this start happening?
| angelswatch |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:37 AM |
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Re: trite taste
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Is it likely that Emily could go between the Yucatan and Cuba and into the Gulf ?
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:38 AM |
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Emily
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What a great idea SkeetoBite... I was actually just looking at the IR of Emily and she does look a lot more organized than earlier in the day and yesterday.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
She's also got a more northerly component to her motion.... I think we should see some strengthening soon... but, I guess we won't know until 11p. I wonder if, since the motion is no longer completely west, that the models will start to shift back to the north some...
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:41 AM |
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Re: trite taste
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Indeed. Man, did you all feel how tense that got? I don't think Clark is around (maybe we scared him off with our bickering)... but varying degrees of low pressure has been bothering me with these things. 1000mb seems awfully high for a 60mph storm. I am interested how the graphs will deal with Dennis… as his highest sustained windspeed and his lowest pressure did not coincide! I don’t know… I can’t seem to get a firm grasp a question to ask about this. I realize it is highly relative, and I wish the records didn’t grade “intenseness” via pressure. The windspeed is what counts (see saffir simpson scale thread).
EDIT: I suppose that would be difficult since there is no way to accurately gauge windspeed all the time on the same level that we can gauge pressure.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:47 AM |
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Re: trite taste
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I did something once that turned out pretty interesting.... Now, it won't explain why pressure/wind relationships aren't always exactly constant, but it can give you a feel for the amount of variation. Windspeed depends on pressure right... Take a storm (any storm, but preferably one that had large variations in windspeed, so like a stronger hurricane).... Plot pressure versus windspeed in Excel, where pressure is the "x" and windspeed is the "y". Add a trendline to the plot (a regression line, really.. Excel just calls it a trendline) and display the equation and "r-squared" value on the graph. It'll generally be a pretty good relationship and while the slopes (which show the relationship between pressure and windspeed) will always be in the ballpark... there is a fair amount of variation.
Something else to do (I tell you, I'm the biggest nerd ever, and I freely admit this) is take a large sample of pressure/windspeed data from many, many storms and do the same thing.... You should end up with the relationship that is the overall estimate between pressure and windspeed that various sites use... I've never done this though.
For what it's worth...
Edit: And the windspeed it what counts as far as Saffir-Simpson numbers, but (as discussed on that thread... I think that's where) damage comes from more than just wind... in fact, storm surge is responsible for most hurricane-related deaths, and flooding is a whole other damage issue.... I'm still all for a Modified-Mercalli-type scale for hurricanes that takes everything into account and provides a gauge of damage.
| spencercape |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:48 AM |
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Winds In Emily
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From the 5pm Discussion: AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 50KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB
-----------------------
So, isn't 60 a bit of an overstatement? I think they were there earlier maybe and they are just hesitant to reduce the winds when there are clear signs that the storm will strengthen overnight? Would that be a fair way of looking at it?
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:52 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Well, 50kt would be about 60mph - and that's if they happened to drop it at the right place for maximum winds. I'd say 60 is probably about right. Satellite intensity estimates are just estimates so I'd tend to stick with the dropsonde reading.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:56 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Thaks Tera. But remember that surge is also dependent upon wind. The actual amount of water that is sucked up from the surface of the ocean by the low pressure will always be, even in the most insane of hurricanes, only a few feet high. I may be mistaken on that... but I am pretty sure that it is the wind driven componant of surge that harbours the real killer.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 12:58 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Just following up on a general newbie-type question posted earlier....
The weaker the system, the less likely it will be picked up by upper-level steering winds, correct?
So generally speaking, if Emily remains weak, she's more likely to keep heading west and into the Yucatan.
But if she gains strength, as is forecast, she's more likely to be caught up in passing troughs, and things of that nature.
Or am I off-base in this particular case?
Thanks!
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:00 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Good point about the storm surge, indeed.... But, flooding has nothing to do with wind.... (hah, my idea isn't totally blown away... pun intended)... And, then there's tornados that can spin up, population, structures, etc.... So, while I'm not saying wind is not important, low wind storms can still cause as much damage as a high wind storm given these other factors.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:02 AM |
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Re: Model mania
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Well Lysis, I for one have gone through two hurricanes, maybe not category four or five but I was in the eye of both Frances and Jeanne last year only three weeks apart. I live on the east coast in Port st Lucie and I can tell you I don't want to do that again. If I hear a four or five is headed my way, I'm gonna run for the hills fast as I can and never look back.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:02 AM |
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Interesting thing about Camille for me
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At the time I was living on the east end of Biloxi, right in the center of the penisula, we had 5 feet of water in our house during the storm... the house I now own on the front beach only had about 2 feet of water surge in it.... still had the water marks and marsh grass stuck on the inside of the sheet rock walls when I was tearing them out for remodeling... my house on the beach has been surveyed at 20 feet above sea level, the house on Oak Steet on the east end of town was 17 feet above sea level .... which is about 7 miles to the east of my house on the beach... both areas had storm surges to 22 feet above sea level... now that's a STORM SURGE.... experienced first hand... and I might add, not much fun either.... I hope no one ever experiences another Camille...
| spencercape |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:02 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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okay, so with the increasing winds, and now most of the models making a progressive move northerly, is it time to stop thinking about Mexico and begin to think about where in the US the storm might lead?
I notice that UKMET (since earlier) and BAM/GDFL now miss the Yucatan entirely... do you think the other models will follow suit?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:08 AM |
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Re: Model mania
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Tropical storms can sometimes wreak just as much havoc as hurricanes. Remember Allison that stalled over Houston?
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Depends on the Low-level flow. Weaker systems tend to ride the low-level flow whereas more intense systems are more effected by the upper level patterns. One of the pros here can likely explain it better.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:11 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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funny how last night it was going right too trinidad and tobago and now she has did a u turn and i mean a fast uturn.
u-turn? emily would be heading back out into the atlantic if it did that. it's turned all of five degrees. -HF
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:11 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Your on Allison weaker storms the cloud tops are not at the same height as a stronger storm so they are steer generally mid-level sterring currents.To were as the stong storm and cane feel the effects of the upper atmosphere and steered by them.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:11 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:
okay, so with the increasing winds, and now most of the models making a progressive move northerly, is it time to stop thinking about Mexico and begin to think about where in the US the storm might lead?
I'm not so sure... there's still that strong high pressure in the gulf, which may keep sending her west....
Granted, I haven't checked any models to see if that high is forecase to weaken or move off....
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:12 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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well all of the models from the 00z run are now north of the NHC 5 day forecast track... Perhaps a shift to the north at 11:00 pm.... maybe as far north as the Yucatan channel?
| spencercape |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:18 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Well, I know this is not much to go by, but the vis loop certainly appears in the last several frames to be making a definate turn WNW or NW.... this should become very interesting over the next day!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:24 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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yeah she is tap dancing around the islands lol! too much rum.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:25 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:
Good point about the storm surge, indeed.... But, flooding has nothing to do with wind.... (hah, my idea isn't totally blown away... pun intended)... And, then there's tornados that can spin up, population, structures, etc.... So, while I'm not saying wind is not important, low wind storms can still cause as much damage as a high wind storm given these other factors.
Absolutely. Case in point, Tropical Storm Allison
'shana
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:29 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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i think we need too hook the witch doctors up with some chicks because they are wishing these waves off of africa on us. lol! sorry a little humor makes me feel better and not so stressed out about this season so i gotta be comical about them.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:42 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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she is getting closer too that box we were talking bout yesterday.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:48 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01126 10598 12505 11410 12052
02124 20600 22493 21515 12047
03122 30602 32481 31510 11066
04120 40604 42446 41810 09077
MF120 M0604 MF079
OBS 01 AT 00:54:00Z
OBS 04 AT 01:07:50Z
Line MF 12.0N 60.4W MF=Max flt level winds 79kts or 91mph??
Could be a spot wind or an eddy due to the mountains.
Emily could be getting stronger, too.
New Vortex...edited
P. AF302 0205A EMILY OB 09
STRONG BANDING ON N TO NE AROUND CENTER
MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 01:08:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 356 / 11NM
850mb Flight level wind as stated above.
Pressure 996mb
Temp and dew point inside the 'eye' are 14C or 57.2F
That would equate to near 100% relative humidity or solid clouds.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:50 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:
yeah she is tap dancing around the islands lol! too much rum.
Hope she dont make a pit stop in Cuba. She may do like Dennis did and visit Castro and he give her one of those Cuban cigars and a drank of that funny stuff and she may stay there too long at least till she get bout half way sobered up.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:55 AM |
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Right
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Check out Emily in the latest IR loops. I haven't seen a right like that since Ali-Frazier, Round Three.
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:57 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Looks like 99 is fizzling with T-Numbers dropping to "too weak". On the other hand...looks like we'll have our next hurricane at 11 unless there's something funky about that 79kt flight level wind.
On the way to work tonight I was listening to a couple guys on HAM radio talk about how Trinidad/Tabago and islands in that area "never" getting hit by hurricanes. I felt that to be kinda ironic given one was about to hit..
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:59 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
I feel the ultimate path will be determined by which way it goes by Jamaica. Looking a visible satellite we see the gulf devoid of any signifcant convection meaning that a large ridge has built there. The latest model run's of the GFDL and GFS seem highly likely given the steering regime. I would consider the NOGAPS or even the WRF solution right now even though that is generally not considered a synoptic model. The GFDL takes it over Jamaica which as we have seen in the past doesn't work, especially with a small tight strong circulation that is forecasted to near the area. Either way I think the BOC is a likely place for it to end up at the end of the forecast period. The biggest area that should be concerned in U.S should be Texas right now.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 01:59 AM |
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Re: Right
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yeah maybe she forgot her visa. lol!
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:02 AM |
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|
Emily now a Hurricane
|
...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.
AT 955 PM...0155Z...THE RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:04 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Now wait...did not someone say that storms do not intensify in that part of the Caribbean?
I guess Emily is saying "Fine...you want me to go NW...I'll go NW!
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:04 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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conventional wisdom says stick with the nhc, they get it right 9/10 times. when they move north then we'll start looking north. this storm isn't that powerful and yucatan will kill it.
| KZ |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:06 AM |
|
Hiting a right?
|
Whats the outlook for this thing hitting a right and aiming at Louisiana?????
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:07 AM |
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Hurricane Emily
|
00
WTNT65 KNHC 140154
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.
AT 955 PM...0155Z...THE RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.
FORECASTER KNABB
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:08 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
Quote:
Now wait...did not someone say that storms do not intensify in that part of the Caribbean?
I guess Emily is saying "Fine...you want me to go NW...I'll go NW!
Nature doesn't seem to care much for climatology this year it seems. Climatologically, I believe that area is known as the Tropical Cyclone graveyard, not so this year.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:09 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
I wonder what the NHC is going to strengthen it to...in terms of mph.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:10 AM |
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Re: Emily now a Hurricane
|
Not surprising considering the IR presentation looks like Emily has undergone much more organization in the last few hours. Very symmetrical CDO now.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:12 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
I have yet to see a model that takes it away from mexico or southern edge of texas
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:14 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
Quote:
I have yet to see a model that takes it away from mexico or southern edge of texas
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp
Ummm, thats not recent, thats from 13 hours ago.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:16 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
Quote:
I wonder what the NHC is going to strengthen it to...in terms of mph.
AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:16 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:
I have yet to see a model that takes it away from mexico or southern edge of texas
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp
Here is a more recent one....and if you check the individual globals you can see the northward change...
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:17 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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So much for Tropical Graveyard....unless Emily is the "Living Dead".
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:17 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
Emily on radar
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/MOSAIQUE/200507140000-Mosaique.gif
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:19 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
but even so, except for the wildcard model (which also missed dennis by a long shot) , they still have it heading across yucatan and hitting mex as TS, what am I missing?
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:20 AM |
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Re: Model mania
|
Quote:Quote:
Pressure was the 2nd lowest recorded ever (1935 hurricane the other): several miles to the right of the eye, 909mb, in Bay St. Louis.
I could've sworn that Gilbert was the lowest-ever recorded pressure (888mb)...
Or are we talking about lowest at landfall?
At landfall...recon measured 905mb.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:21 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:Quote:
I wonder what the NHC is going to strengthen it to...in terms of mph.
AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.
I know but I was wondering if they were going to compromise between flight level and drop sonde. I guess not.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:21 AM |
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Re: Model mania
|
how long before joe bastardi at accuweather predicts catastrophe for new orleans? he usually does this when they get within 6 days
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Is it just me or does emily seem to be heading at a NNW direction at the moment? At least for a wobble?
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:23 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
Just wait JR I think it will come in the 24-36hrs just due in part stonger system and the coriolis(sp) effect.The only thing to stop it will be the ridge of course but if a weakness shows up then we have something else.I am still not sold on a NGOM solution by far a more WGOM I think.The CA and MEX only I think is out now.
We do not talk JB via the Coop.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:23 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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if I were the leader in jamaica, I would have jim cantore come and broadcast from the center of my island, thus sparing the country.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:24 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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I'll give it a day but nhc wouldn't err that much huh? or would they claim the cone rule.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:25 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:
if I were the leader in jamaica, I would have jim cantore come and broadcast from the center of my island, thus sparing the country.
Jim Cantore is not who you want broadcasting from your area during Hurricane season.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:29 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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My thoughts are still in the cone personally just to the N side of the cone.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: Model mania
|
Quote:
how long before joe bastardi at accuweather predicts catastrophe for new orleans? he usually does this when they get within 6 days
Hope he doesn't see this,
....12z UKMET...click FWDhttp://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Actually Canetracker he was like insurance that you were not going to get hit till Dennis showed up.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:34 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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anyone have a link too the boxes that we were talking bout last night?
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:36 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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If that keeps up for another 3-6hrs it is no longer a wobble I would say.It has been going at it for 6hrs now.NNW? maybe NW?
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:39 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:
If that keeps up for another 3-6hrs it is no longer a wobble I would say.It has been going at it for 6hrs now.NNW? maybe NW?
Past hours have shown a general northward trend. Not good. Lets see how long it keeps up, because if it lasts another say 5 hours, Florida looks to be in the cross hairs again.
EDIT: Mets. Is it possible this northward trend is due to a possible weakness created by the large piece of convection that broke off earlier and has held together since?
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 AM |
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Re: Model mania
|
I call this the bastardi model. he and that model have something bad against the big easy, they both shoot for it regularly.
Guys, no more Bastardi talk, k? Check earlier in this thread if you have any questions. It's probably my fault in the first place for bringing him up, but it's time to move on. Thanks... -Clark
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 AM |
|
Re: Model mania
|
Quote:
The midlevel ridge to the N of Emily is sliding east. Its now located near 52W compared to yesterdays 58-60W. Emily has already jumped just N of west and will begin moving wnw to almost nw at times. There is a strong mid and upper high in the gulf with a branch extending to the midatlantic. A trough extends in the atlantic down to the bahamas to eastern cuba where a weak midlevel low is. This combined with Emily being sw of the small ridge will push her wnw-nw. Computer models are split almost from the start. Nogaps ( genereally the best model in the tropics) continues Emily more w-wnw and takes her towards belieze and the Yucitan......GFS and GFDL takes her near Jamaica and near Cancun,Mex or just north of there. Canadian and UkMet are towards the SE gulf on a track very simular to Dennis. Current thinking is that the ridge over the Gulf will stay in place for awhile longer and the ridge over the midatlantic will be strong but not maybe as strong as forecasted earlier. Also this ridge might be slightly further off in the atlantic. So there should be a weakness that continues near the bahamas and south florida. Dennis remenents will continue over the Ohio valley and get stretched out between the ridges to its south and east and a trough coming into the plains and great lakes by early this weekend.
I feel there is more toss up to what Emily might do then 24 hrs ago when I felt she will stay south and follow what the current Nogaps was saying...and it still could. The weak trough near Cuba and the bahamas stretching in the atlantic might not pick her up enough to bring her towards Cuba. Also though I think the ridge off the mid-atlantic might be further out by the weekend. The Gulf ridge I feel will win out over the midatlantic one causeing more weakness then forcasted over the bahamas. This should drive Emily more towards Cuba and very simular to Dennis. Now not sure yet on landfall in the U.S. The ridge will be strong in the Gulf and could then steer Emily more west towards the Cancun area and Texas-Mexico or it could find even more weakness and head N. Right now its hard to tell.
Only way for this system to head up to Florida or the Bahamas would be for a stronger trough off the bahamas and florida and the ridge in the gulf to slide alittle more W ( which isnt out of the question).
Overall expect a wnw-nw path to near Jamaica and Cuba for now then more w feeling the ridge in the gulf.........
scottsvb
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: Model mania
|
with a season this busy and a 10yr projection for this much activity, is this big business in vegas yet?
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: Model mania
|
I may be late here, have been off site since 5pm EST. Did I just hear on Fox Emily is all growed up now and a Hurricane? WHA HAPPEN
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:47 AM |
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RECON Update
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Pressure now down to 992mb. That's a 4mb drop in an hour.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: RECON Update
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Wow.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Not sure if that is a significant northward movement or simply the result of the convection finally getting completely wrapped around the center. It is moving more on a WNW direction than W, though.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:
if I were the leader in jamaica, I would have jim cantore come and broadcast from the center of my island, thus sparing the country.
hee hee
I was wondering how, with a newsperson like every block, there was no documentation of Dennis's eye...maybe we have to wait, perhaps Pcola will have got it all on film.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: RECON Update
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WOW, latest IR, she is exploding
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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The center might be doing alittle relocation or the convection is really wrapping around the center(hence the increase to cane status).WNW like Scott said will resume maybe again by tomorrow morning but not before possibly affecting some of the models.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
CaneTracker, not really. The convection and associated outflow would serve to add some additional energy to the ridge above it due to convective heating, but this would be expected to be minor (if not negligible over such a short time scale). It could lead to some convective drag, but really, it's probably just reorganization of the storm once again.
And yes, Emily's a hurricane as of a 10pm special update. Waiting on the particulars in the 11p package, though, which is understandably a little late in coming. Guess the storm finally did decide to get its act together this evening, eh?
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:54 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:
CaneTracker, not really. The convection and associated outflow would serve to add some additional energy to the ridge above it due to convective heating, but this would be expected to be minor (if not negligible over such a short time scale). It could lead to some convective drag, but really, it's probably just reorganization of the storm once again.
And yes, Emily's a hurricane as of a 10pm special update. Waiting on the particulars in the 11p package, though, which is understandably a little late in coming. Guess the storm finally did decide to get its act together this evening, eh?
Clark, you seem to always answer my questions. Hehe. Thanks again.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:55 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
11pm is out...winds increased substantially based upon recon report...
Winds in Emily are now 90mph. No, that is not a typo.
May have to go back and edit my previous forecast thinking just a little bit...didn't expect quite this jump with the convective flareup. Don't think NHC did, either.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:55 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Winds officially up to 90 per wunderground.com.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:55 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Watching these storms form over time is very interesting.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 02:59 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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How many hours do these recon flights have to travel to get down to South America to fly into these storms? Or when they are so far away, do the planes come from somewhere other than the mainland?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
Margie, they have a base in either Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands -- someone with a bit more knowledge can help me out there, please! -- that they use for flying these storms. Usually only one (sometimes two) plane(s) get sent out that way, though, due to cost reasons, limiting the number of flights that can be made into these storms. However, 6hrly fixes usually suffice until they get closer to the mainland, when the full suite of planes can head in and around the storm.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:03 AM |
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|
Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:The NOAA aircraft are based at MacDill in Tampa. They have the Gulfstream jets and a P4 I believe. The AF is based in Louisiana. I wonder if they refuel in Puerto Rico.
How many hours do these recon flights have to travel to get down to South America to fly into these storms? Or when they are so far away, do the planes come from somewhere other than the mainland?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:03 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
|
Puerto Rico
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:04 AM |
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|
Recon
|
Based on some data i saw the other day. I believe they are flying Emily from Puerto Rico. They normally fly the storms this far out from St Croix, US Virgin Isles.
They tend to reposition the aircraft based on storm trajectory and strength.
Houston and Tampa are two of the sites they use for secondary bases on the mainland.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:06 AM |
|
Re: Winds In Emily
|
Do you people even read what the nhc says? they talk about how hard it is to forcast the winds they just dont have a good handle on that but all models but the ukmet takes it to the yucatan.
I love wishcasters and doomcasters who have nothing more then a wish to see a north moevment in this.
What is even more funny is when the last storm was going dennis i talked about what the ukmet modle said and i was told how bad the model is but now since it shows the most intrest everyone wants to jump on it.
Its the wishcasters and doomcasters that makes boards like this sick.
I think its going where they say and why? cause that is there buisness and yes it may be wrong but 99% of the models are showing it not going to florida but only time will tell till the next one comes.
A northward movement right now would equate to a fish-spinner. Not a CAT 1 in the Caribbean.~danielw
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:06 AM |
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Advisory
|
Apparently NHC isn't buying into the different motions that we've been seeing of late. Sticking with a westward track for 24 hours.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...EMILY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
EMERGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THURSDAY
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:10 AM |
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|
|
Re: Winds In Emily
|
Quote:Quote:The NOAA aircraft are based at MacDill in Tampa. They have the Gulfstream jets and a P4 I believe. The AF is based in Louisiana. I wonder if they refuel in Puerto Rico.
How many hours do these recon flights have to travel to get down to South America to fly into these storms? Or when they are so far away, do the planes come from somewhere other than the mainland?
The AF Recon is based in Kesler AFB in Biloxi Ms. And I think I read somewhere that about where these storms are there is a no fly zone for the US so they have to use other planes from other places. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong but that is what I read from another board.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:11 AM |
|
Re: Winds In Emily
|
You got a laugh out of me ralph.
| drcrazibob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:12 AM |
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|
Re: Winds In Emily
|
Quote:
Do you people even read what the nhc says? they talk about how hard it is to forcast the winds they just dont have a good handle on that but all models but the ukmet takes it to the yucatan.
I love wishcasters and doomcasters who have nothing more then a wish to see a north moevment in this.
What is even more funny is when the last storm was going dennis i talked about what the ukmet modle said and i was told how bad the model is but now since it shows the most intrest everyone wants to jump on it.
Its the wishcasters and doomcasters that makes boards like this sick.
I think its going where they say and why? cause that is there buisness and yes it may be wrong but 99% of the models are showing it not going to florida but only time will tell till the next one comes.
I have been watching this site for 2 years now and have a lot of RESPECT for many of the posters on here. I think your statement is very disrespectful. And if you don't like what you're reading, then don't read it.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:15 AM |
|
Re: Winds In Emily
|
ralph, no one is wishcasting this storm anywhere NEAR the United States. No one wants to see this storm become any stronger than it is or affect any landmass. When making a forecast, one must consider all available guidance and weigh it accordingly based upon past performance, initialization, and the forecaster's own intuition. The UKMET model is but one of those tools, one that both the forecasters here and at the NHC use in making their forecasts.
I don't recall anyone here saying that it is going to be a storm to hit Florida; you have people asking if it might affect Florida, but no one saying that it will. Anytime a model changes, especially if it brings the storm closer to the US, people are going to start asking questions for their own peace of mind and because they are curious as to why that might happen. That does not equate to people wish/forecasting it to hit Florida -- or anywhere else in the US at the time being, for that matter.
Please send me a private message if you have any questions or concerns, and I'll do my best to alleviate them.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:16 AM |
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|
|
Re: Winds In Emily
|
Ralph, this is why the NHC hasn't put anything on a northward movement yet:
Due to the scatter in the recon fixes during the past couple of
hours...initial motion is uncertain but is estimated at 275/16.
From the 11:00 PM Discussion
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:17 AM |
|
Re: Winds In Emily
|
Hurricane Fredrick 1979 -- there is a no-fly zone in and around Cuba due to the trade embargo we have levied against their nation, but other than that, most of the other nations in the Caribbean/Atlantic are friendly with the US and permit our recon planes to fly over them. All waters outside of ~45mi. from a nation's shore are termed international waters (someone can correct me on the mileage if needbe) and thus free for flight; over/near a nation, with the exception of Cuba, we should be good.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:18 AM |
|
Re: Winds In Emily
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glad i got a laugh out of you but there are a few who post on here that the only time they post is when they see something the nhc does not see or takes it near a big population.
Dennis was prime example how a few swore the nhc was wrong and it was going up the west coast of florida.
Forcasting a hurricane id easy for non NHC people cause if you are wrong who cares so ill stick with the pro's and yes try and skip the ones who only post when there is a small sign of a north movement.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:18 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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I think that people are not jumping onboard withe UKMET model. What they are doing is looking at a couple models that were once south and are seeing changes in them. The UKMET model was consistent with Dennis, the model moved very little, until the last 24 hours and even then it was wrong.
So I doubt anyone would jump onboard relying soley on the UK Model, but they are curious as to what made the model move further north.
The only thing sick about this board, is the fact that people are quick to criticize others.. If we could just keep an open mind, we could learn from each other. This board is meant for collaboration.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:20 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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It appears that Emily's strengthening is somewhat associated with an anticyclone located very close by at the 200 hPa layer.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:20 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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New thread up on the main page...head on over, everyone!
| nowhammies |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:23 AM |
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Re: Model mania
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I don't really know enough to know whether the mets that post here go too much or too little by the NHC forecasts. I do realize a couple of things though.
1. I learn more from reading their description of what they think could happen , than I have ever learned from the NHC's discussion of what will happen.
2. If I was a met, I would relish a place where I could talk about what I think would happen even if it were only an outside suspicion. I value thier commments as a great way for me to learn more and feel more prepared for these storms.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:31 AM |
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Re: Winds In Emily
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Quote:
Hurricane Fredrick 1979 -- there is a no-fly zone in and around Cuba due to the trade embargo we have levied against their nation, but other than that, most of the other nations in the Caribbean/Atlantic are friendly with the US and permit our recon planes to fly over them. All waters outside of ~45mi. from a nation's shore are termed international waters (someone can correct me on the mileage if needbe) and thus free for flight; over/near a nation, with the exception of Cuba, we should be good.
Just some slight correction/clarification:
Occasionally we do get overflight rights to go over Cuba, but it is not often, and never consistant. Territorial waters actually only extend 12 nautical miles away from the 'mean low water mark", so the hunter's can get really close to the coastline before landfalls.
| nowhammies |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 14 2005 03:39 AM |
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Re: Model mania
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Tradesports.com sells some sort of stock like interest in where a hurricane would strike and how strong it would be. They do a lot of political trades too and have been found to be very accurate. I heard about it on the radio today - maybe I will have to check it out. With my luck in financial matters, if I invest on the fact that a storm will hit me it may be the only security I can ever buy
| jusforsean |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 16 2005 04:45 PM |
Re: Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also
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HI,
Does anyone have up tp date info on the next td no 6.
I am trying to figure out the best way to track these waves that the nws and the news doesnt update on yet.
Thanks
jusforsean
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 17 2005 12:53 AM |
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Re: Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also
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are the disturbances still being watched? If so, are they strengthening and where are they going?
Thanks, Ryan