MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Jul 13 2005 11:18 PM
Emily a Hurricane

11PM Update
The pressure and winds continue to fall within the storm, now at an intensity of 125mph and pressure of 957mb. Additional strengthening is likely and the storm may reach category 4 intensity during the day on Friday. Watches have now been posted for the Cayman Islands in preparation for the storm. The forecast track has been shifted ever-so-slightly northward, with landfall in Northern Mexico likely in about 6 days.



2PM Update
Recon reports and the NHC indicate that Emily is now just below the threshold of major hurricane status, with a pressure of 972mb and winds or 110mph. Further strengthening is forecast, with the storm now having the potential to reach category 4 status in the western or central Caribbean.

8:45AM Update
Hurricane Emily has passed over the island of Grenada, as a Category 1, and maintained itself this morning. Now it has strengthened, although the official advisory for 8AM says 991, recon has just mesured the pressure at 980 mb, which likely makes it a category 2 hurricane.

The future path is still south, probably clipping the northern end of the Yucatan and entering the Bay of Campeche after 5 days or so. At that time, if it continued on its present course, it would make landfall in Mexico. However, once it enters the Bay of Campeche it has the opportunity to slow or turn, but is so far off that it is pure speculation.

The other disturbances in the Atlantic haven't organized yet, but give them a few more days and they probably will as well. These are more llikely to head out to sea before nearing land, however.


Original Update:
Emily is now a hurricane, with 90 mph winds. Approaching the Caribbean islands, including what looks like to be a landfall on Grenada, devestated by Hurricane Ivan last year. After this, it is still expected to head west, and stay south of Cuba, Puerto Rico and us by a good margin, slamming into the Yucatan toward the end of the weekend.

Event Related Links
StormCarib - Individual reports from the Caribbean Islands
Color Sat of Gulf (Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Emily
Visible/IR Floater of Emily with storm track Overlays
Aruba Radar
Animated Model Plot of Emily
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily
Emily Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Emily
QuikScat Image of Emily

Area east of Emily (99L)
Animated Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L
Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)


javlin
(Weather Master)
Wed Jul 13 2005 11:25 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Going up .4N and .5W center relocate some?

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Wed Jul 13 2005 11:28 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

well since i have family in the caribbean, although not Grenada, I ask all of you to keep the people of Grenada in your thoughts. The country was devastated by IVAN last year and they are nowhere near recovery.

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jul 13 2005 11:29 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Quote:

Going up .4N and .5W center relocate some?



Relocated to the northeast under the deep convection.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Jul 13 2005 11:30 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

She is looking very well,and getting better.Bad news for my buds in Playa Del Carmen.

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Jul 13 2005 11:30 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

probably wobbled like crazy as the inner core spun up quickly. since it's deepening the wnw motion should finally set in. it sure waited til it was on top of the islands to do that...
scott's analysis of the track looks fairly sound. wnw for a while then bending back more to the west as it gets near 20/80ish. probably going to be a very significant hurricane in the western caribbean. based on what we have now, there's a modest chance it will threaten texas around july 20/21, but the biggest threat will be for mexico's yucatan and the nw mainland.
HF 0430z14july
to clarify.. made this comment prior to reading the 11pm discussion. they say the center reformed NE.. that accounts for the shift.


Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:02 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

It appears Emily is being helped along also by an anticyclone located near by, around the 200 hPa layer.

HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:53 AM
lateniter

emily: going to move pretty much like the nhc official says. initial intensity is too high.. long term intensity is too low. it may be a major hurricane at midmonth... don't know if there's a recorded precedent for that. future track mostly likely to threaten mexico. the 18z run of the gfdl is what i'd regard as the best example of track/intensity expected, shifted just south.
99L: i was thinking it would be a t.d. some time tomorrow, but this is uncertain. ssts will begin to pick up along its track tomorrow, but there is a large field of subsidence in its path. this will likely keep the convective pattern very sporadic... probably not enough to get this to a tropical cyclone. it also puts the future track in question.. the wave will work further west.. but its development chances are somewhat lower than before. then again, if/once it does develop it have an even lower chance of catching the trough in the central atlantic.
east of 99L: new wave, good cyclonic turning in the associated mcc that came with it. something else to watch if it persists... nothing on the models though.
HF 0552z14july


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:53 AM
Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

From Steve Gregory's wunderground blog:

"JULY 13 10:14PM CDT

Further analysis of the RECON data by NHC indicates that the max wind report near the surface is closer to 80KTS, just shy of the 83kt threshold for CAT intensity. But additionally, the pressure has dropped another 4MB in the past hour alone, down to 992mb! And just as impressive, the temperature difference between the inside and outside of the core circulation (soon to be the eye) has increased to 7 degrees. This is clearly a CAT 2 hurricane.

The rapid increase in intensity, has been accompanied by an equally impressive increase in convection, with a very impressive outflow pattern developing in all directions, and clearly increase the odds that Emily has really begun a rapid intensification phase likely to last till morning. With the storm possibly approaching CAT 3 intensity during the next 12 hours. There is no clear indication yet of an eye, but the thermal characteristics reported by the RECON strongly suggest we will likely see one shortly as subsidence within the core of the storm increases

The new 00Z run of models shows a continued shift northward of the storm track, with the GFDL, and now the BAMD both showing Emily bypassing the Yucatan, and coming through the Yucatan channel by Monday. But the overall majority still show the storm hitting the upper Yucatan coast. But this is over 4 days, and 2,000 miles away. The statistical error leaves room for a potentially wide range of outcomes. Certainly though, recent model trends towards a slightly further northward track raises the risks for the western Gulf Coast states, in particular Texas, for a hurricane landfall towards the middle of next week. "


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:20 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Looks like he has been reading the same RECON info I have.

Hank, two of the models are up at the FSU site.
Canadian model taking Emily near Jamaica, knocking her spin down a notch and then to a course over the Southern Yucatan Peninsula, after knocking the rest of the spin out of her.
Final course is a la Bret...somewhere on the SW GOM coast, Tampico area.
Above notes based on the 850mb level vorticity product.
**************************************************************************
The UKMET model is quite a bit more aggressive with Emily.
UKMET is indicating a Hurricane entering the GOM at the Yucatan Channel around Sunday morning, around daybreak.
Taking her to a landfall near the TX/ MX border sometime on Tuesday.
UKMET notes based on the 500mb level vorticity product.

A dip in the 500mb jetstream, into N MS and N AL at +132hrs could have some influence on the landfall location.
Above models change every 6 to 12 hours and are subject to large changes. Please consult the NHC Official Advisories for the Current and forecast Tracks.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:30 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

I am amazed at how quickly Emily intensified... but, it was like night and day with the sats from earlier when she was weaker, until now.... But, shouldn't she have an eye at 90 mph?

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:36 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Terra -- usually weak hurricane status is when hurricanes really start showing their eye. There may be hints of one forming on IR satellite imagery now, but if not, I imagine we'll see one soon as the system becomes better organized.

I bandied these thoughts about with HF & others around here earlier this evening, but I'm not convinced that the dropsonde used to upgrade the system all the way to 90mph didn't hit a convective tower (localized area of very deep convection with winds temporarily stronger than those found throughout the system as a whole) on its way down. Flight-level winds are usually a bit stronger than the surface winds due to friction (and the fact that they don't fly all that high up), yet they have not climbed above 79kt yet. Pressure has fallen a good 10mb this evening, which does suggest the storm has strengthened, but I wonder if the true intensity is closer to 75-80mph than to 90mph. I do agree that it is a hurricane, however, given the flight level wind evidence and maintained pressure falls. Just me thinking out loud.

Have a good night, everyone...


BullitNutz
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:46 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Is there any data on how much the formation of an eye will affect the course of a storm? The eye's an area of high(er) barometric pressure smack dab in the middle of a hurricane, I'd imagine that would affect the steering properties somehow. Insight?

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:44 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Looks like the 5A maintains 80kt and is just the same as the last forecast. Looks like it should be a Cat 2 later today.

Was looking at 99L earlier...it's looking pretty ragged and still is too weak for t-numbers.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 05:03 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Latest IR compared to Forecast points looks like Emily has wobbled north.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:25 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 12.3N 62.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 13.0N 64.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 68.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.2N 71.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 75.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 82.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 100 KT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/140845.shtml


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:41 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

Is there any data on how much the formation of an eye will affect the course of a storm? The eye's an area of high(er) barometric pressure smack dab in the middle of a hurricane, I'd imagine that would affect the steering properties somehow. Insight?




Actually, the eye is the lowest pressure... since winds blow from high pressure to low pressure, and are deflected because of the Coriolis force, they blow inward and counterclockwise. They eye is essentially the point that the winds rotate around. The lower level winds converge around the eye. Now, nature abhors a vacuum, so if there were no upper level divergence, or outflow, then the pressure would increase and weaken the storm.


BullitNutz
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:47 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Oh. I always thought it was high pressure because I read a book on weather back in elementary school and it explained the eye passing overhead with "The rain stops, the barometric pressure skyrockets, and you might even see the sun shining for a little while."

But perhaps the low pressure is aloft and the high pressure is on the ground.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:52 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

The low pressure is at the surface.... but, the eye temperature aloft is warmer... so maybe that's why the weather is fair. However, that would mean the air is descending, and goes against everything I understand about low presure centers, which make talll heavy air columns and thus precipitation. I always thought since the eye was the point around where the winds rotated, that was why the weather was calmest.

I'm thinking there's validity in both of our points... maybe Clark can fill in the gap?


BullitNutz
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:56 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Calling for Met backup!!

I'd definitely call Clark in to set us straight.

On a side note: They kicked the 5-day forecast track to the North a tad. Could this be a trend culminating in a N GoM or Fl Peninsula impact?


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:15 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

The northern trend will have to continue and the storm will have to catch the merry-go-round that is surrounding Florida at this time in order to get into the gulf. It still looks like it will make a westward turn into the Yucatan Mexican coast., If you can imagine the school /park merry -go-round spinning and kids having to jump on it at an angle and hold on like mad to keep from being slung in the general direction away from the ride. Those that had the strength would hangon and get the ride completely around. Those that lost their grip would sling off in opposite direction the wheel was turning. (loose discription.)

BullitNutz
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:18 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Ahh. I see. it'd have to make a sharp northward curve and somehow "catch" the current instead of deflecting. Well, no great sigh of relief yet, but at least they didn't radically shift the track into FL yet.

firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:41 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Not a met...but Charlie has shown me that it is sunny, hot, and humid inside the eye. And be careful about it being calm, I was reading after Charlie hit our area that one of the met vans in our area found evidence of mini vortices inside the eye using it's radar....

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 08:37 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

those two waves off africa look like they have skeletal remains of two huge hurricanes like they are ghost canes or something. we really need too hook them witch doctors up with some chicks cause they are sending some wierd stuff off that coast lol! good morning peeps! so what do we think of emily will she be a charlie or not?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 08:38 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Good morning everyone, Emily creeping up in intensity 14/1145 UTC 12.5N 63.4W T4.5/4.5 EMILY

NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 08:52 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

pressure down to 980

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 08:56 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Can't wait to see scott's forcast and others now that ukmet has shifted back down south with the other models.

I am in NOWAY a expert but for 30 years i have been here in Florida and wached these storms and since the internet have tracked them.

Now sure they can go wacky ways and this may still but when you got the experts saying 1 thing then all of a sudden the ukmet (which stinks) takes it over cuba a few guys jump on it becase if they are right they get to say see i beat the NHC.

This is there buisness and others's hobby and after the last 2 years i am sorry to say a few people only post when they can predict doom and Gloom.And there are many who have no clue and get upset.

Heck when dennis was coming over 30 people i know left Sarasota because just by word of mouth they were scared of it coming here.

In fact last year when charlie was already going to Char county somone on this type board posted he see's something in the vapor and its going to Jog up the coast and rake our area.Well they ran to Arcadia EVEN though it was heading right for Punta Gorda.In fact the people were all screaming on these boards Tampa and Sarasota watch out this just may go right up the coast YET NHC had it going where it went by that time.

Anyway they went to Arcadia and were killed by the Hurricne there.

The guys who posted had to answer to nobody and thats why i get a little bitter as it chases people away and sometimes right into the path of a storm.

Its all about fame and glory for the guys make there predictions on these boards as its boring to say the NHC looks right on target so they always find something different from what the nhc says and last year made fun of them alot when they were wrong.

Yet when they are wrong they just say hey im not the expert.

So Scott now what today? are we waiting to see or what? ukmet has moved south.


And BTW its only 1 or 2 people but they can make the difference in someone to panic.

This storm in the end is wait and see what happends next.


ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 08:59 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

BTW every Jog east by Ivan last year people posted WATCH OUT TAMPA.

And it was a wobble only. many people left the west coast of Florida last year also for that storm yet the NHC never had it coming here.


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:01 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

I gotta say something, i have been reading these posts you have been making and i noticed something. Here you are complaining about people only posting every once in a while about doom and gloom, but i have noticed you have only posted recently to complain about someone. make your predictions, ask your questions
or leave the bandwidth to someone who wants to make positive input to the site

that is just my opinion


Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:17 AM
ralphfl

how dare you make an assumption that someone on this site is responsible for other's deaths. You have no names, not a bit of verifiable fact. It is irresponsible and quite arrogant. I for one find your recent post disgraceful......


000
WTNT65 KNHC 141236
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...CORRECTED PM TO AM IN TIME OF THE UPDATE

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LOWER PRESSURE IN EMILY...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 980 MB...A DROP OF 11 MB SINCE THEIR
LAST REPORT. AS YET THEY HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY INCREASE IN EMILY'S
WINDS...HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE FALL IS AN INDICATION THAT A
STRENGTHENING TREND IS BEGINNING.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:18 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

looks like the spin of death in the gom. geez!

Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:22 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog


Man... I went to sleep with a strong tropical storm, and woke up with a near category two hurricane with impressive satellite presentation to boot. I didn’t think that Dennis's record would be challenged so early!


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:23 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

I need more coffee to deal with her this morning...darn Emily.

HurricaneSteph
(Registered User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:24 AM
Re: ralphfl

Give me a break, ralph. You know as well as everybody else does that people should take some responsibility for their actions. If I said on this board that I thought Emily was going to turn into a Cat 5 and slam directly into Tampa, and somebody evacuated Tampa based on what I said, who's the bigger idiot?

Bottom line: listen to the NHC and follow their watches/warnings. If you make your plans based on something you saw in a chat room, you're not playing with a full deck in the first place.

My two cents......


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:24 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

where's franklin?

NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:27 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

no franklin yet, waiting...........

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:30 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Well before this gets unruly, because I can smell it heating up. I have only been on this site for a couple of years and been in Fl since 1990. I have been watching, tracking, and plotting etc etc since 1991. However, only within the last couple of years have I really taken an interest in the overall genesis, mechanics, tracks and trails of Hurricanes. And with that, an interest in meteorology and climatology. The amount of information and knowledge that I have sucked up from people on this site, REGARDLESS of background, education, experience has been INCREDIBLE. I have always approached this site as any other web site, in which opinions, perspectives, judgements vary, yet I respect that. I do not hold anyone to anything they say here because we are talking about nature. A force that can not be controlled and quite honestly, minimally understood. I do not come to this site for debate, arguments or chastising. People, opinions, culture and nature should be respected, among other things. It's early and I am not on my 3rd cup of Java yet. But it seems more so than in years past we have these bickering sessions that quite frankly, waste people’s time and system resources. Doorbell rings, phone rings, answer or don’t. Show on TV, song on radio, you like it, leave it on. You don’t turn it off. There is choice, believe or not, and if not, validate the point or say nothing. There are a few similar sites out there, none with the accuracy and timeliness of information that this site offers. I suggested this a couple of weeks ago to another poster. You don’t like it, start your own site or just don’t watch! I have not seen that person since, or his friend. Ralphfl, no offense, just an opinion and take on the dialogue currently taking place. Here’s hoping to learn from you.

jbmusic
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:31 AM
Re: ralphfl

Oh my gosh, I don't know what is heating up more the tropics or this message board, how about if we put some of that energy into learning how these storms move and react to the enviroment and take the enegy off of each other.

There are statements all over this board that this is not an official hurricane site it is for hobby interest only, so if someone choices to listen to a hobbiest state their oinion that is their decision


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 AM
did anyone read this about Dennis's effect in the FLA keys?

http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/07/12/dennis.shipwreck.reut/index.html

A story about how waves from Dennis righted a sunken ship to rest on its keel. The ship had been sunk to make a manmade coral reef but had landed on it's side.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

From the site suggestions/comments board when I asked the rules for posting on this forum.... LiPhil said, "there's only 2 hard and fast rules...no cussin' & no attackin'..." Lately, there's been a lot of attachin' going on in my opinion... Is there really a need for blame and argument? Let's just focus more on this storm, and less on pointing fingers....

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:33 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

look the way i see it is if i am in any part of the cone of death not the dotted line. im gonna take precautions too protect my family. last year tom terry did really good on charlie but the rest of them were off. but now days these storms are getting bigger and bigger and maybe one day it will blow up the scale and they will have too cat 6 so if i see that volusia county is any where near the eye then yeah i know what too do. its not peoples faults that people die it just happens. yes i think some local news stations are misleading like last year but noone can always be right except for god.

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:39 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

i agree i love this site. this is my first year and already it has inspired too goto college so i can work the nhc one day. my first major is marinebiology but now i wanna do this too. i cant wait, im only 24 yrs old and i have plenty of time. i enjoy this room when we arent fighting about soemthing thats off topic. lets just get back on track with these canes. come on peeps lets do some investigating this is fun.

Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:41 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

I think the NHC should officialy employ the use of "The Cone of Death". THAT would get peoples attention.

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:44 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

i think im just gonna build be a bomb shelter and ride out thses things this year. equipped with everything i need.lol!

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:48 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Right on Terra, STORMS and WEATHER.......Stick with the program of tracking and weather information ........No bickering, it wastes everybodys time and its boring....Weatherchef

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:50 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

looks like the spin of death in the gom. geez!




I'm sorry but I don't follow you. Could you please explain?


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:53 AM
Ralphfl

Quote:

...many people left the west coast of Florida last year also for that storm yet the NHC never had it coming here.




When you post inflammatory comments, at least be sure you know what you are talking about. The 11pm advisory on Sept 8 for Ivan showed the hurricane making landfall on the FL coast south of Tampa in the 5 day forecast. See for yourself:

Ivan 5 day Forecast 11pm 9/8/2004

--Lou


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:53 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

well look at the water vapor loop on the gom and you will see the spin like a circle and its like if it catches the circle it could be the spin of death from mexico too fl.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:54 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

...the cone of death

...now days these storms are getting bigger and bigger and maybe one day it will blow up the scale and they will have too cat 6




I'm also having a little trouble understanding you here as well. Hoping that you can take the time to provide some scientific background for your conclusions.


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:56 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

i wish i could i seen them talking bout on cnn headline news the other day too scientists and they were talking bout the 50 billion dollar cane and said that the rest of this decade could get worse and worse.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:57 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Emily sure got her act together yesterday. This morning she still looks decent on the vis. sat. and a little better on IR. I'm sure that if she could scoot a little further north of S. Amer. she could get better organized, though I don't see her moving much further north for the time being. The models are looking pretty good right now with the westward movement.

Edit-Here's a good link describing the eye and eye wall.

Eye/Eye Wall


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:57 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

i agree i love this site. this is my first year and already it has inspired too goto college so i can work the nhc one day. .... i cant wait, im only 24 yrs old




You know I think you must be right. You probably don't have to take the plunge to be a college freshman until you are 30 or so.


317288
(Registered User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:58 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Whats the link for the site which has info up to 120 hrs out? It has surface winds,sea level pressure,,etc.... Its nogaps,fsu,and other predictors...I seem to have lost alot of links during dennis..Thanks in advance for your help... Maybe emily will tone down to a cat 1 or better fizzle out.....

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:02 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

so could it still do a charlie or no?

in all likelihood, no. -HF


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:02 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

i wish i could i seen them talking bout on cnn headline news the other day too scientists and they were talking bout the 50 billion dollar cane and said that the rest of this decade could get worse and worse.




Well don't we all implicitly trust every single thing that we hear on the news, especially when it comes to weather. But you know, I think you are really missing out by not watching FOX news.


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:03 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

i wathc fox news alot just been busy tracking thses storms and havent really watched it lately. i love shep hes my favorite. why what did i miss? there is only a little dry air left for emily too suck up where she is now could this mean a strong 2?

Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:07 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

I like watching…uh… my barometer.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:08 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

so could it still do a charlie or no?




A Charley, as in making a "sharp turn" to the east?

Right now, I would say no. I think the models have a pretty good grasp on the weather patterns currently in place, and what their effect is/will be on Emily. This isn't to say that something won't change in a few days because, as we all know, the weather/atmosphere is always changing. However, the setup with Charley was different than what's going on now, or what's happened so far this season. You can't really compare then to now because the similarities aren't there.


TDW
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:09 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Isn't Shep from Ft. Walton Beach? He should have had some experience with a few storms.

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:11 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

so what is that huge stuff over florida right now? if it was too go west could it keep emily from going west?

tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:12 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

You know I think you must be right. You probably don't have to take the plunge to be a college freshman until you are 30 or so.




Hey now, I hope you weren't being facetious.

My first run at college was when I was 18. I had no idea what I wanted to do and it was a waste. My second was at 19 - I still had little idea of what I wanted to do.

Got married at 22, had a few kids. Figured out what I wanted to do at 24, but due to being the bread winner, had to make a clandestine effort to do so. At 30, I went back to school, wrapped up my degree in a year, landed a great job.

I'm now launching my second design studio (first one was co-owned when I was 26 and my business partner and I diverged in our goals).

There's nothing wrong with making a decision on a second major while you're not responsible for bringing in the bacon for anyone other than yourself. There's actually nothing wrong with doing so later in life, it just becomes more difficult to do it for prolonged periods of time unless you are financially independent

Follow your dreams, do what you love and you can't help but love what you do.


Shalafi
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:13 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

I don't understand what's going on this year but it seems like this year the amount of people completely missing the disclaimer is much higher than last year. Nowhere on the site says "we are the offical source for information. We are equal to or greater than the NHC and you need to heed our warnings." It's made clear that this is a site for hobbyists. Yes there are mets on here but that does not mean this is a better source of info than the NHC and no one ever claims to be.
It should be pretty apparent and common sense that most people posting are learning, attempting predictions, discussing. If someone comes here, reads a post and believes it as fact without researching further their injury or death is on them. No one here is responsible for any of that.


Big Red Machine
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:15 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

http://www.wunderground.com/education/steveg_blog/steere1.gif

NL, this should put your mind @ ease, these are the current primary steering currents. For now it does not very likely for a Florida landfall. Things can change, though, so you never know.


drcrazibob
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:33 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:



Its all about fame and glory for the guys make there predictions on these boards as its boring to say the NHC looks right on target so they always find something different from what the nhc says and last year made fun of them alot when they were wrong.





Do you really think someone claims glory on where a storm goes? People here give their opinions on the storms. The DISCLAIMER for this site clearly states that this is not an official NHC site. Generally if someone is looking for information on what to do to keep their property and loved ones safe, they go to their local officials. Please have a little respect for all the folks that do enjoy this site.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:37 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

EMILY STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES... 905 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:38 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.
11 am is out

guess taz beat me by seconds lol


WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 64.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 63.2W


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:51 AM
This site

Thanks everyone for participating in this forum.

Just a note to those that think Emily will suddenly turn toward Florida.
There are weather dynamics that create the conditions that allow these storms
to turn. Right now, there is a ridge of high pressure North of Emily which will keep her moving WNW.
Last year Charley for example was forecast to come in over Tampa Bay.
The trough picked charley up a bit sooner than predicted but the turn was always in the forecast and within the forecast "cone".

I always pay attention to the NHC advisories and when a storm is heading in my general direction, I keep in mind that it can turn. But to panic and worry that each storm is coming to your area or try and wishcast it to do so only creates confusion and needless frustration.


Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:51 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

she will rip the tile off of your roof now.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

Hey now, I hope you weren't being facetious.




Who, me? Noooo...I am just waiting to hear more insights from "nl." I mean, that is why I came to this site, to hear meterological detail from people who know what they are talking about, and in this case someone who also seems to have caught on to something that the entire NHC hasn't considered, such as the "spin of death," " the cone of death," and especially how hurricanes are going to "blow up the scale...too cat 6." It's so helpful, and really adds something, don't you think?


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:58 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Actually, Terra, you've got it right. The eye is the area of the lowest barometric pressure. The strongest warming in a hurricane is found at upper levels in the eye due to sinking air. In fact, the eye is such a clear region because of the sinking air.

This sinking air is a necessary artifact of hurricanes, in fact; with such strong rising motion in the eyewall (and through the convective mass as well), there must be some compensating sinking motion to maintain balance. Some of this is seen on the outer periphery of the storm, but the majority of this is found within the eye. The sinking causes the air at upper levels to warm -- forced descent is a warming process -- and helps drive the warm-core structure of the cyclone. With all of that heating at upper levels, the strongest response in the hurricane, coincidentally enough, is found at the surface. The response of the storm at the surface is to deepen, leading to increased rising motion and, given favorable surface & upper-air conditions, a feedback cycle upon which the storm can intensify.

The stronger the storm, the stronger the descent within the eye. The need for this descent & the associated warming aloft is the primary reason why you don't ever see the eye contract to a near-zero diameter: if it were to do so, the sinking motion would be cut off, weakening the warming aloft (which in a hurricane is not due to convection), and the pressure would begin to rise. That's why you see eyewall replacement cycles with these storms, as the natural tendency for any eyewall is to contract. The science behind that one is pretty complicated, though (heavy in physical and dynamical meteorology), and I'll leave it for another day.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:02 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Discussion 15 is out.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:05 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

ralphfl, it appears as though you have a bone to pick, and if you -- or anyone else -- wish to do so in the future, please talk with the forecaster(s) in question via private message only. This is not the place for such messages. Storm analysis is welcome here; lashing out at others is not. Thank you.

Now, let's get back to the topic of the day: a strengthening category 2 hurricane in the Caribbean Sea.


tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:07 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

I'm sure changing his degree and his courses would help to correct any knowledge deficiency.

We all know that there is no Cat 6 simply because the damage from a Cat 5 (see Camille) is complete and total. A weak 5, a strong 5 - doesn't matter.

He's just asking a question many others have asked over the last year and change that I've been here.

I personally think that if the NHC started using the "cone of death" it might actually get attention too. Sensationalism sells, ya know?


Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:16 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Clark... while you are talking abou eyes, I have noticed in some visible satellite images of intense hurricanes, the indentation around the eyewall (the "calm" I guess) only going down to a certain depth (ie you wouldn't be able to see the ocean while flying around in the eyewall). Something similar happened with Isabel a few years ago:

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/030913.isabel.gif

If you have a fast internet connection where you are, take a look at this one:

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/QTmovies/030912.isabel.mov

What is going on here?

EDIT: While you wouldn't need a cat VI rating (as you said, the damage is allready complete at category 5) you could probably technically do it for those "once in a quarter of a century" storms like Gilbert, Mitch, Camille, etc.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:23 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

I personally think that if the NHC started using the "cone of death" it might actually get attention too. Sensationalism sells, ya know?




That's kinda funny.

You know I was reading a story on cnn.com about someone who stayed in their home during IVAN and the home was hit by the storm surge. The experience they described was horrific. As their home washed away they spent 9 hours in the storm waters. These same folks decided to ignore the evac order for DENNIS as well...the reasoning was as follows: "We've been through the worst. It couldn't get any worse," "You can't run from every one of them," and "I'm a firm believer you don't die before your time."

One of my own brothers said to me about Dennis, when it strengthened to a solid CAT 4 and changed direction to the west, "It doesn't matter where the forecast goes. We're staying here."

There you go...as much as I do like the idea, don't think the "cone of death" would change the minds of the folks whose minds need changing.


jr928
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:24 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

a mexican soaker

Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:26 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Hey... my uncle took his wife and dog and drove from Orlando to Homestead through the outer rain bands to ride out a category five hurricane with us. Now I think that beats them all!

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:28 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

"I'm a firm believer you don't die before your time."

However, you can increase the odds of it being your time?

AdvAutoBob
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:29 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

I think the NHC should officialy employ the use of "The Cone of Death". THAT would get peoples attention.




Actually, it should read "Cone of Doom"


Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:30 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

more so... what if it IS your time?

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:32 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Hey guys,
not posted a whole bunch recently but heres my two pennies worth on Emily. I for one largely agree with the NHC forecast at present - especially on track. I think she will pass just to the SW of Jamaica, then just to the south of Grand Cayman on the weekend. After that it is a tough call. I reckon we will still see a Yucatan crossing, but how far north along the peninsula is another matter. Given how well she has organised in the past 12 to 18 hours, and the excellent satellite presentation, i can see no reason for her not to get stronger. There is an evident CDO which i think we will see open into an eye within the next few hours. Certainly one for everyone around the centrala and western caribbean to be watching closely.


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

If Emily slows down somewaht I can see the UKMET and Canadian models coming to fruition and Emily crossing the Yucatan straits and perhaps onto Texas. It is too early to see this though- but it may come to pass.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 AM
something else on evacuations

My other brother, the one who works for the sheriff's dept, said that when the curfew was lifted before everyone returned who had evacuated because of Dennis, there was a rash of burglaries in those unoccupied homes; between 30 and 40 burglaries. Actually a real incentive for some not to evacuate in the future. This is in part because people have to travel so far now to evacuate, especially along the MS Gulf Coast. Hotel rooms in Hattiesburg, Jackson, and Montgomery are long gone by the time these folks have to evacuate.

drcrazibob
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:38 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

I obviously am not a weather expert, but out of curiousity... what would happen if the storm crosses into the pacific? Is that possible, and if so what would they do about its name?

Bob


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:42 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

1996-Hurricane Cesar (7/25-28) crossed Central America and became "Douglas" in the eastern Pacific, the strongest major hurricane in that basin during 1996. Cesar and Dolly (8/19-23) killed at least 65 people in Central America and Mexico

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:43 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

i didnt say the cone of death would make people leave. i just said they should take precautions if they are in the cone especially 3 days out or less.

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:50 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

and bout the cat. 6 i didnt mean there is a such thing im just saying they could be a super hurricane one day that would have higher winds then a cat 5 therefore they would have too have a cat 6

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:55 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Category 5 has no upper limits; it's anyything with wind in excess of 155 MPH.

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:03 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

ok so then a super 5

tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:09 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

You're missing the point.

They're rated by windspeed because of the damage that certain speed winds can cause.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D1.html

Accordingly, anything beyond 155 will continue to cause catastrophic damage. There's no need for a "super 5" because a 156 mph storm and a 220 mph storm will each cause catastrophic damage.

Until there are new advancements in building design and structural integrity, there's not going to be a need for a 6.

When we get to the point when a "cheap" house survives 200 mph winds and 20+ foot storm surge, drop a line to the NHC - I'm sure they'll consider it then


Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:21 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Yawn..........uh, oh...what's new? Looks like outside of Tex/Mex all's quiet. If Emily behaves anyhow. 99L still a concern for development but the question is does it continues westward. Nice wave behind 99L has cleared the CV Islands may develop down the road. Other than that, all's quiet on the eastern side of central Florida today, and most everywhere else in the CONUS.

Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:24 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog




If you are curious, see hurricane Mitch... Camille... Typhoon Tip. All had winds over 185mph at their peaks and insane low pressures to boot. However, as has been said... 155 sustained is more than enough to completly destroy most structures that we can craft, so it is kind of like adding insult to injury.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:24 PM
hurricane names

Here is the list of all the names:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

Upon reading your post on Cesar becoming Douglas, the following extremely silly thought occured to me: someday a "he" might cross into the Pacific and become a "she," or vice versa.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:32 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

What we saw with Isabel is the breakdown of the eyewall into a number of mesovortices. They are pretty cool to watch, but not exactly the easiest things to model or understand dynamically.

Essentially, when the system gets wrapped up too tightly, the eyewall can breakdown into these vortices. Essentially, the eyewall is a sheet of what we call vorticity -- cyclonic spin. If the conditions are right, as they sometimes are with very intense storms, the eyewall can become barotropically unstable (what that exactly means is a matter which could take awhile to explain due to the math, but focus on the unstable part), leading to its spin-up into a number of vortices. This is where the mesovortices seen with Isabel arose from.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:40 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Mesovorticies was the word I was thinking that day; remember the question about Andrew?

Cancun Weather Watcher
(Registered User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:43 PM
Gilbert 1988

Wondering if it is just me, but doesnt look Emily very much like Gilbert in 1988

Any thoughts??



Worried here in Cancun

Cheers


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:48 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

From yesterday:
I feel the ultimate path will be determined by which way it goes by Jamaica. Looking a visible satellite we see the gulf devoid of any signifcant convection meaning that a large ridge has built there. The latest model run's of the GFDL and GFS seem highly likely given the steering regime. I would consider the NOGAPS or even the WRF solution right now even though that is generally not considered a synoptic model. The GFDL takes it over Jamaica which as we have seen in the past doesn't work, especially with a small tight strong circulation that is forecasted to near the area. Either way I think the BOC is a likely place for it to end up at the end of the forecast period. The biggest area that should be concerned in U.S should be Texas right now.

My thoughts from yesterday are the same today.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 12:48 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Thought I would put this link up for anyone that cares to check the track verification from all models and NHC.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200505.asp?imgfeature=verification&textfeature=track

For a different storm, where it says at200505, just type in 01, 02, 03, 04 etc etc where ending 05 is


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:01 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

Quote:

Wondering if it is just me, but doesnt look Emily very much like Gilbert in 1988

Any thoughts??



Worried here in Cancun

Cheers


I am former Playa Del Carmen local,and I hate to say it but right now it does not look good for you guys.They are pretty confident it will hit near or at Cancun/Playa Del Camen.It does look alot like Gilbert.

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:03 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

Yes, as far as the US is concerned, its either Texas or bust for Emily. 99L is getting a bit better organized today (yes, its still on the NRL backup site). Convection is starting to fire around the circulation near 15.8N. This one continues to move is a general WNW motion.

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:04 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

anyone have any links too gilbert? some info on it?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:05 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HURRICANE EMILY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY BRINGING EMILY WNW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA SAT. EMILY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON. ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS EMILY MOVES WWD. LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS EMILY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE MON AND TUE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON AND TUE OVER THE SW GULF AND FOR MON IN THE S PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF ZONE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT THEN INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF SUN AS EMILY MOVES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ATLC WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND EMILY TIGHTENS. THE WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM E TO W AS EMILY MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING...AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER DGS

Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:07 PM
Emily is looking to begin a more northly gig...

unless I am blind...I see a deepening trend, and a more northly trend...almost dead wnw....the models will all be adjusted. This storm will make it throught the Yucatan...might even skirt Jamaica, mon...

sure hope I just can't read loops on satellites...


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:07 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

off topic but did anyone see the 10 day forecast for death valley. oh boy its hot there.

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:12 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Clark what many people who put forcasts out dont understand when they try and go against what the experts say is this.

Many people are clueless about these storms and when they read someone who really is only guessing say WATCH OUT TAMPA....It scares them and they do something stupid and in some cases kill themself but running right into the storm.

3 days ago i asked about my camp next Monday what was the opinion and many said oh you in GA and tampa area better cancel...Now im not stupid but some people really take to heart what is said on these boards..


Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:17 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

What we saw with Isabel is the breakdown of the eyewall into a number of mesovortices. They are pretty cool to watch, but not exactly the easiest things to model or understand dynamically.

Essentially, when the system gets wrapped up too tightly, the eyewall can breakdown into these vortices. Essentially, the eyewall is a sheet of what we call vorticity -- cyclonic spin. If the conditions are right, as they sometimes are with very intense storms, the eyewall can become barotropically unstable (what that exactly means is a matter which could take awhile to explain due to the math, but focus on the unstable part), leading to its spin-up into a number of vortices. This is where the mesovortices seen with Isabel arose from.


crap... another reason I can't walk around in the eye. I have never seen great footage that isnt overexposed from sunlight of the eyewall from the ground. I was hoping to get some myself. Thanks.


Cancun Weather Watcher
(Registered User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:26 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

here is some

http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/gilbert88.html


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:26 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

Essentially, when the system gets wrapped up too tightly, the eyewall can breakdown into these vortices. Essentially, the eyewall is a sheet of what we call vorticity -- cyclonic spin. If the conditions are right, as they sometimes are with very intense storms, the eyewall can become barotropically unstable (what that exactly means is a matter which could take awhile to explain due to the math, but focus on the unstable part), leading to its spin-up into a number of vortices.




That is interesting. May be a stupid extrapolation, but wondering if this implies a tornado is inherently unstable during its entire lifespan.


Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:28 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Well, that is the ultimate paradox of all this. Instability and randomness divulge efficiency and perfection.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:32 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Your right Ralph about people saying watch out in areas.. remember though you are asking about a storm from 3 days ago and its still 5 days away. No one knows for sure more then 3 days out. Its a safe bet not to let any storm interfere with your plans if its more then 3 days out.
Alot on here make guesses to storms that are not even depressions yet and say where they will go and say watch out. Yes its wrong, but I guess they can do what they want. Speculation is allowed by site management. Thing is, we hope new people who dont come here that often dont take them serious like you said, and change their plans or do drastic things.


jr928
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:39 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

look out detroit?

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:40 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

is that a eye on her or something else lol is there a way too get auto refresh on here like cbs sportsline has?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:44 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

At 2 PM AST...1800z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 12.9 north... longitude 65.0 west or about 490 miles... 795 km... southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph ...30 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Reports from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a strong category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is expected...and Emily could become a category three hurricane later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb...28.70 inches.


Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 01:56 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

hey Mike, if Emily turns, what kind of turn are we tlaking..i dont think its a Pensacola-Mobile-Billoxi turn so i guess you're talking Texas and possibly Louisiana?

TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:01 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988

gained 50mph in 24 hours !!!!

actually 18


Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:13 PM
Wink

A small, ill-defined eye is now observable, tucked in that tightly wrapped cdo.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:14 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:

Thought I would put this link up for anyone that cares to check the track verification from all models and NHC.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200505.asp?imgfeature=verification&textfeature=track

For a different storm, where it says at200505, just type in 01, 02, 03, 04 etc etc where ending 05 is




What caused the models to be so messed up with Jeanne? Even after she made her loop, they still had her going North. (I changed the date in the URL so Jeanne comes up)


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:20 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

It looks like the current forecast has Emily going into Mexico or possibly South Texas. Is there any possibility it could hit around the Galveston/Port Arthur area?

drcrazibob
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:27 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Quote:

It looks like the current forecast has Emily going into Mexico or possibly South Texas. Is there any possibility it could hit around the Galveston/Port Arthur area?




If it does, ya'all better put on your cowboy hats and strap into the saddle real tight cuz it would be one heck of a bumpy ride!


javlin
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 PM
Re:Models & Troph

It looks to be all about the ridge and the maybe troph"s impact 72hrs and out.The CMC and UKMET show the troph,one of them even shows a split(more NW maybe track).The other models lessen the impact of the troph thus the continued W and WNW track.It will be a wait and see for sure.

Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Why is the floater loop an hour old all of the sudden. I just got an image on Emily's eye at 16:45... and now we are back to 15:45 (?) . The guy who runs the RAMSDIS loops is doing something screwy as well (they switch to focus on a close up Emily's extreme southern banding when the eye is forming (?).

ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:46 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

^ bumpy ride? Actually, if it was to head for Port Arthur/Galveston I'd say be prepared to evacuate.

See Harris County OEM Hurricane page for evac routes and a link to surge info for counties nearby.

Evacuation and Risk Maps - NWS Houston/Galveston


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:49 PM
Playa del carmen/Emily

Here is a pic of Playa Del Camen,mx.Where I use to live and where Emily is heading.What a shame.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 02:55 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

ralph, at the time, that is what the forecast models were saying, that is where the NHC track placed the threat undeer towards, and that is what the storm appeared to be doing. Things change, and so do forecasts, as we've seen with Emily many times already -- both on its track and intensity. Being so far out, that is bound to happen with almost any storm. Bottom line, you just have to be prepared in advance and ready to execute a plan in case the storm does threaten you. No one was implying a threat any more so than the official forecast, forecast guidance, and synoptic environment suggested. Take a look at the initial 5-day NHC forecasts and you'll see this.

Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 03:08 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Regardless... there is no room for forecast decent now… Even Joe Bastardi said this morning; the NHC forecast is “perfectly fine” at this juncture (thats right, naysayers!). No one is really way out there with this one, so there is no real reason to complain at the moment. It has no precedence.


EDIT: Indeed, Bob. Not that this is much in the way of consolation... but I have observed that *most* areas spring back better than before in the extended wake of a major hit. This includes enviornmental factors as well.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 03:11 PM
Re: Emily's eye

Quote:

A small, ill-defined eye is now observable, tucked in that tightly wrapped cdo.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html




The eye can be seen more clearly on the water vapor loop.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 03:17 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Last night and this morning I was getting Dennis images ??

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 03:32 PM
Franklin?

That next system out in the Atlantic looks quite impressive on satellite imaging. Any news on its development? I know it's too far out for recon-but it sures looks like it's developing. I wonder how that Atlantic ridge will affect it's track?

Rob1966
(Registered User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 03:40 PM
Re: Playa del carmen/Emily

Well, here I sit in a wireless restaurant in Cancun. Very strange feeling in this town. They are already taking prelimiary action in the event Emily stays on her present course. I am supposed to be here till late Sunday. Hum.................

BullitNutz
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 03:41 PM
Re: Playa del carmen/Emily

Get pictures!!

In all seriousness, keep safe. Even if it means no pictures.


WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 03:44 PM
Re: Emily's eye

Wow...the eye just "popped out" on the last couple of frames...and it looks VERY defined

BullitNutz
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 03:46 PM
Re: Emily's eye

It has been gaining a lot of strength lately, Hopefully this trend doesn't continue too much before landfall, wherever she's going.

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 03:55 PM
Re: Franklin?

Hard to tell right now Joe. I've been watching this one since it came off Africa and today we are finally seeing convection re-fire. This one may very well get steered westward, since it still far enough south to maintain its current motionand the ridge should build between iot and the ULL moving in tandem well to the north.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:05 PM
Re: Franklin?

Not sure which you are referring to:

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E ATLC ALONG 23W S OF 19N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 15-20 KT. THE WAVE DISPLAYS A GOOD SATELLITE SIGNATURE BUT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ALOFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 41W S OF 21N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 15.5N-18N BETWEEN 39W-42W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS. ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS NEARING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHICH IS CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:17 PM
Re: Emily's eye

Looks like she has been going nearly due west last few frames.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:17 PM
Re: Emily's eye

Quote:

Wow...the eye just "popped out" on the last couple of frames...and it looks VERY defined




You're not kidding. Emily sure has come a long way since about 1.5 days ago. Some were thinking she might come to her demise(I thought there was a good chance) because of her proximity to S. Amer., and propensity(at the time) to continue moving south. Now she's almost a cat 3.


Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:35 PM
not due west...a wobble

the eye is wobbling a tad around the overall force of the hurricane, the but general motion is still .2w, 1.0 north, or so....will probably track south of Jamaica.

my guess is Cat 3 status next advisory...and Emily will blow up to a 4 or 5, and go through eyewall replacement cycles....appears to be a small storm like Dennis, since the eyewall is 10 miles dia.

it'll be interesting to see if in three days, the environment around her changes...too far out to discount anything..

never see 'em this far south do we?...

wonder if that means it'll be hard to predict?...what will keep it west?....


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:40 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

holy coconuts! look at the size of the wave behind the second one off africa geez!

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:42 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Emily becomes a dangerous category three hurricane...
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica. At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 13.3 north... longitude 65.9 west or about 445 miles...
720 km... southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. Maximum sustained winds continue to increase and are now near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale...the second major hurricane of the season. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb...28.59 inches


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:42 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

99L is back on NRL now

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:45 PM
I've noticed

Quote:

the eye is wobbling a tad around the overall force of the hurricane, the but general motion is still .2w, 1.0 north, or so....will probably track south of Jamaica.



In the extremely short time I've been here I've noticed that every time deepening occurs, that is when we see wobbles occur in the course, but that overall the course stays steady, so that as far as forecasting direction, it seems better to focus on the overall instead of every wobble.

I am wondering if the wobbles are due to deepening occuring in a non-symmetric manner; that is, more in one quadrant than another, and the wobble is a way to balance momentum and restore equilibrium? As if you were spinning and suddenly someone threw a weight into one hand, and you were off balance for a minute before pulling the weight into the center, but doing so made you move just a little.


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:48 PM
Re: I've noticed

she is booking it 21 mph geez! what she do steal something? anyone have a link too cape verdi storms? i wanna know more bout them.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 05:00 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

That's not a wave necessarily but waves branch off from there. It's a conglomerate of differential heating, the ITCZ, and a mosoonal trof.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 05:08 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Don't leave out Haboob

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 05:08 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Quote:

Don't leave out Haboob




What are you talking about?

heh. he made you say haboob. -HF


firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 05:12 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Quote:


crap... another reason I can't walk around in the eye. I have never seen great footage that isnt overexposed from sunlight of the eyewall from the ground. I was hoping to get some myself. Thanks.




I really would like to see that video....but....would you mind moving first???


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 05:20 PM
Carnac predicts

Well I think I've learned enough to finally make a prediction: not about the weather (lack of scientific knowledge), but I will put on my Carnac hat and predict...new thread soon, Emily a major Cat 3 hurricane.

Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 05:21 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Ha! We have many friends living in various places in Florida. So I have a wide range of places to go. Miami... West Palm... Tampa... Fl keys, obviously here. No worries. I have a strong desire to document the hurricane that will undoubtedly dominate Florida's history for years to come. That is... the major hurricane that passes right over Miami. My family has lived in Miami for as long as anyone can remember, and I remember stories of many hurricanes, including the great Miami hurricane of 1926. If this were to happen today (which it will one day) it would cost 100 billion dollars.

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 05:22 PM
Re: Franklin?

The central Atlantic one Taz (15N/42W) Moving west at 15 knots.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 05:56 PM
First Cat 5 of Season?

i think Emily will become a Cat 4 or even the First Cat 5 of the Season. Also i would recommend checking out jason's weather blog on WJHG.com ( jason's web blog ) seems there is a weather doppler war here in Panama City Market now...

Also here's my favorite new hurricane site for this season
NASA 2005 Hurricanes
have been reading that there may have been an umanned flight into Dennis while in carribean and there could be one very soon with emily. Most NASA and NOAA flights will be out of Juan Santa Maria Airport in San Jose, Costa Rica until July 23rd, which now may be extended until Aug 1st, due too Atlantic early season systems. They project is going to be about pacific storms , but atlantic has picked up sooner than expected and may send some research over. There is a picture of the ER-2 down there on the web site that made a recent hrd flight and are schedule now for our friend Emily. Also the umanned flight information can be found HERE .

***Also the G-IV is in St. Crois, USVI , for Emily now****


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:07 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

A haboob is a specific type of wind event. I don't know the particulars beyond that, but I imagine they are probably available from a Google search.

Storm Hunter -- those flights are based out of the CAMEX/TCSP field program current going on down in Costa Rica. The NRL website has a bunch of 5xL.TCSP listings on their website, which are special regions geard towards assisting in forecasting for their field missions. The primary mission is to fly into convection and developing tropical systems to gather information for future research; the hurricane task is secondary. They flew into Dennis during its formative stages; it remains to be seen as to whether or not they fly into the mature Emily. However, since they have the planes down there, I imagine they will fly them. There is a group from FSU down there, primarily for forecasting tasks...some of my friends as well, thus the connection to the program.


jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:19 PM
Re: First Cat 5 of Season?

Quote:

i think Emily will become a Cat 4 or even the First Cat 5 of the Season. Also i would recommend checking out jason's weather blog on WJHG.com ( jason's web blog ) seems there is a weather doppler war here in Panama City Market now...

Also here's my favorite new hurricane site for this season
NASA 2005 Hurricanes
have been reading that there may have been an umanned flight into Dennis while in carribean and there could be one very soon with emily. Most NASA and NOAA flights will be out of Juan Santa Maria Airport in San Jose, Costa Rica until July 23rd, which now may be extended until Aug 1st, due too Atlantic early season systems. They project is going to be about pacific storms , but atlantic has picked up sooner than expected and may send some research over. There is a picture of the ER-2 down there on the web site that made a recent hrd flight and are schedule now for our friend Emily. Also the umanned flight information can be found HERE .

***Also the G-IV is in St. Crois, USVI , for Emily now****




that blog is great. he backs up the landfall issue with fact and as far as the other stuff goes he is stating his opinion and we can only assume he is correct. nice work jason mixing it up and taking no prisoners.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:25 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Yeah i see that primary mission is IFEX (Intensity Forecast EXperiment) 2005, i see that noaa plans a flight for this too now. i mean two Flights!

aircraft missions
The NOAA N43RF will fly a tropical cyclone genesis mission as part of IFEX in conjunction with the NASA ER-2 jet. The P3 will leave San Jose, Costa Rica at 1:00 AM EDT and will recover at San Jose, Costa Rica by 10:00 AM EDT.

NOAA 42 and 43 both planned for missions

also on the umanned page (aerosonde.com)....pretty cool pictures from down there.... see any friends, clark?


Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:32 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Aw man... that totaly takes all the fun out of it. I guess you see one hurricane (or in these guys cases... thousands) you see them all. I wonder if that job (hurricane hunters) ever gets monotonous?

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:34 PM
Kudos to the NHC and a few thoughts on Emily

So far this year They have done an excellent job of predicting where the storms are headed. Sure there are fluctuations, but as is stressed here to *no* end, The NHC is the source. They are the group to listen to and to base your decisions on.

We have some really smart and intelligent people here, and the meterologists here are as solid as they come. But honestly, most of us are not pros, we're here as hobbiests who have a fascination, if not an outright love of hurricanes. (if you experience enough of them, I'm sure that love turns into a love/hate, but that's another story )

So, I just wanted to give a thank you to the NHC for their hard work.

Ok, On to Emily, As has been mentioned previously, there is nothing really coming down to break the ridge that's holding Emily to a WNW course, however it looks like there could be something pushing down into TX and LA on Saturday. If it's able to erode the ridge, it's possible the storm could shift more to the NW. That's the only thing I can see that *might* affect the forecast path. The storm (and the season for that matter) seems to be throwing climatology out the window so there goes the hurricane graveyard theory.

There's still a few days left, but Anyone in the yucatan is hopefully making the preparations they need to make for a major hurricane. I think the NHC is on target here, but if the storm does shift, I can see landfall happening between Corpus Christi and Houston. Water is warm, 29 - 31 degrees. I'm horrible at making intensity predictions, but if I had to put myself on the record, if it folows the NHC path as expected, 120 kts landfall on the yucatan, and recovering to hit mexico at 105kts. If it treks north, It'll hit harder.

The chances of it hitting Florida are about 1 in 100, if that high.

Just my thoughts
-Mark


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:35 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Also here's the NASA TSCP web page

http://camex.msfc.nasa.gov/tcsp/

(The Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) mission)

For those who would like to see where most hurricanes come from in atlantic, check out this NASA video of Hurricane Isabel from 2003.... Watch nasa follow here from her "Cradle to Grave" across the atlantic. Quote "she packed her bags for United States"....NASA follows her...

Recommend Windows Media Player < click link


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:35 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Eh, not really. For those that I know from FSU, this is their first experience working on a field project like this...and, unfortunately, they may only get one chance to fly during the entire month down there.

Personally, as someone in the field and a tropical nut, I don't think I'd ever grow tired of going into the storms. Perhaps forecasting them, sure, but probably not seeing them up-close-and-in-person.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:01 PM
Wave potential

Something that hasn't received a lot of press in the mainstream -- but is receiving some buzz in the community -- is the potential for very high waves in association with Emily. Essentially, the rapid forward speed of the storm comes close to matching that of the wave propagation outward from the storm, meaning that the waves become trapped within the storm's circulation. As this happens, they continue to grow in response to the high wind speeds and accumulation of energy. This will have the greatest impact to areas to the right of the storm's motion, as this is where the waves will be crashing upon landfall.

Current forecasts are for wave heights -- not surge -- of over 20ft. offshore of the Yucutan in a few days, decreasing into the mid-to-high teens as the storm makes landfall. The coastline of Jamaica may well see these high waves as well...and if the storm passes near enough to them, may take out some of the wave energy and spare the Mexican/Central American coastline. Needless to say, for whichever landmass is most affected by this storm's waves, the potential for damage due to coastal flooding far exceeds that seen with Dennis and is something to watch over the next 3 days.


Lysis
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:08 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Clark, get this:

My mom signed me up for private driving lessons a few days ago, and my instructor was ancient (I felt a little nervous driving with him). We started talking and I invariably brought up the subject of hurricanes and flying into them (I am a pilot in training). To that he responded… you don’t want to fly in one, trust me. I inquired as to why, and to my surprise, this guy was captain on one of the first B-29's to fly through the eye of a hurricane. They were instructed to circle the eyewall as scientist on board took pictures and recorded data. He talked about the downdrafts and updrafts (as you know, they couldn’t detect them back then), and how sometimes planes would come back with salt water in their engines.

I was absolutely astounded, and missed a stop sign because I was asking him so many questions.

EDIT: On your last post, I have a question about wind speed in relation to the systems forward speed. The LI express comes to mind, where the wind gusts were 180mph + despite the fact that the storm was only a category 3. Is that a product of the extremely high speed that the storm was traveling?
Hurricane Hazel in the 50’s (?) is another one.


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:09 PM
Re: Wave potential

so what bout franklin? i dont see 2 much.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:09 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Look at the last daylight sat photo (22:15 UTC) - great view of the eye, and the center "donut" really seems well-defined.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:16 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Quote:

Clark, get this:

My mom signed me up for private driving lessons a few days ago, and my instructor was ancient (I felt a little nervous driving with him). We started talking and I invariably brought up the subject of hurricanes and flying into them (I am a pilot in training). To that he responded… you don’t want to fly in one, trust me. I inquired as to why, and to my surprise, this guy was captain on one of the first B-29's to fly through the eye of a hurricane. They were instructed to circle the eyewall as scientist on board took pictures and recorded data. He talked about the downdrafts and updrafts (as you know, they couldn’t detect them back then), and how sometimes planes would come back with salt water in their engines.

I was absolutely astounded, and missed a stop sign because I was asking him so many questions.

EDIT: On your last post, I have a question about wind speed in relation to the systems forward speed. The LI express comes to mind, where the wind gusts were 180mph + despite the fact that the storm was only a category 3. Is that a product of the extremely high speed that the storm was traveling?
Hurricane Hazel in the 50’s (?) is another one.





Isn't the wind speed to right of the eye going to be roughly the sustained winds + forward speed of the hurricane?

So - at one point you could fly a plane, and not drive a car?


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:22 PM
Re: First Cat 5 of Season?

this would be the second of the season--Dennis was 155 right before landfall in Cuba, as reported by the recon plane; NHC decided not to upgrade it based on pressure being 937 mb (even though Charley last year was 150 mph at 941)

135kt/155mph isn't category 5. it starts 1mph higher.. how petty. but yeah, that's an upper limit 4. they'll probably post-analyze the winds as you described. -HF


Allison
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:26 PM
Damage from Emily

Not sure if this has been posted yet... it's the AP report on Emily from Grenada:

"Hurricane Emily grew even more powerful Thursday after slamming into Grenada, tearing up crops, flooding streets and striking at homes still under repair from last year's storms. At least one man was killed. . . .

"The damage comes as the island nation is still recovering from last year's Hurricane Ivan, which destroyed thousands of residences and damaged 90 percent of the historic Georgian buildings in the capital. . .

"A man in his 40s was killed when a landslide crushed his home in St. Andrew's, said Allen McGuire, Grenada's consul general in New York City.

"In the capital, St. George's, winds blew out windows in a new hospital . . .

"On Carriacou, the storm damaged the roof of the only hospital, forcing the evacuation of patients, officials said. Sixteen houses were destroyed in Carriacou and more than 200 were damaged, McGuire said.

"Elsewhere in the country, two police stations and two homes for the elderly also lost their roofs, landslides and fallen trees blocked roads, streets were flooded and crops were destroyed. . .

"In Trinidad, there was widespread flooding and at least one house washed away in the eastern community of Arima. . .

"The struggle to recover from Ivan has prevented Grenada from thoroughly preparing for this year's hurricane season. Amid a shortage of construction supplies, many islanders still have no roofs and some children are still taught under tarps. Ivan's destruction left few buildings viable as shelters."


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:28 PM
stuff to ponder

just looked at the 18z gfs... it sends emily through the yucatan channel and into the central texas coast on july 20th. it's just one run; that'll have to start appearing in multiple runs for any confidence to build.
99L may or may not have a closed low. the max is around 15-16N/43W... moving w to wnw. the 2pm twd mentioned it gaining some latitude... i don't see the kind of northward movement prescribed by most of the globals.. they're trying to shear it off to the north, and it just isn't deep enough to ride out. also there's a 500mb ridge building in NE of it which should keep pressuring it wnw. the wave signature that doesn't shear off is tracked to a position btw bermuda and puerto rico by this monday. i'm guessing that's where the system will be at that time. with the ridging over the nw atlantic, anything over that were to get there would like come charging westward. i'm not sure if the mechanics for this will work out.. if it does shear off it either won't develop or will get sucked out into the north atlantic.
wave at 20w mildly interesting.. but the models don't seem to notice it.
dennis remnants are still sitting and spinning near the ky/in border. broad weak low at the surface but a still a strong turning aloft. it's been driving the lower tropospheric flow out of the west for much of the southeast and causing good convergence with the deep southeasterly flow we usually get this time of year.. lots of thunderstorms all over the region, moisture being wrenched out of the atmosphere.
HF 0028z15july


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:32 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Lysis -- the strongest wind speeds are generally found on the side of the storm going with its motion, so that theory is pretty sound. Think of the storm's winds and the motion of the storm as two vectors; the actual wind is the vector sum of those two. Generally it's not such a big deal when the storm is moving slowly in the tropics, but when it is moving 50mph, it does play a role. And that's an interesting story...my how things have changed!

Rabbit -- if it was a Cat. 5, I think they've would've mentioned it in the forecast discussion or will in the preliminary report. Remember, 155mph is still category 4 -- it takes 156+ for cat. 5. Not sure we'll see something that strong in the preliminary report, however.

nl -- the wave behind Emily as the potential to become a depression, maybe even a storm, along the lines that HF mentions a few posts before me, but it's not there yet.


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:35 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

do you see any storms hitting central florida this season? go noles!

HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:42 PM
central florida

dunno NL, do you see white sox winning the world series? come on, might as well ask if it's going to rain on march 15, 2007. your question can only be answered in probabilities.
HF 0042z15july


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:54 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

I think you're confusing me with Rabbit...

My bad -- I shoulda been paying more attention. -Clark


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:55 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Like a chinhook; wind's have very weird names and haboob is very weird.

heh. he said haboob again.... -HF


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:56 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Who could realistically answer a question like that? Who knows what the weather patterns will be when future storms develop and what will be the driving force behind a storm to move it where it will eventually end up. you might find the answer in the World Weekly News but never from anyone who really understands these things

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 07:58 PM
Re: central florida

Why does it appear that Emily has been thowing herself all over the Caribbean? It's like her convective bands are somehow going away from the LLC and just getting 'lost' in the oceans. She seems to be shrinking as she loses her bands. Hey... is it possible for these lost bands to start their own convergence around a new center... so, like... can part of one tropical system form another one?

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 08:03 PM
Re: central florida

What you're probably seeing is large clusters of thunderstorms associated with the lift of outflow boundaries and differential heating casused by eddies of warmer water. These storms are most likely temporary because they do not have a supporting UL feature.


EDIT: I don't believe they can form new tropical systems based on the above reasoning and the fact they are mesoscale features and hurricanes are synoptic scale features.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 08:14 PM
Re: central florida

New pressure is 962... ouch... stronger winds to come at 11, I suspect...

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 08:17 PM
Emily

Emily is certainly looking more compact.

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Thu Jul 14 2005 08:53 PM
Box Theory

Looks like Emily is heading right for Paul Herbert's #2 box.. so much for that theory with Emily it seems..

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 08:57 PM
Re: Box Theory

looks like franklin is getting its self together.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:08 PM
Re: Box Theory

nl, Franklin isn't out there, at least not yet. The satellite appearance has become a bit more ragged this evening, with the main convection trailing behind what surface feature there is (where before it was coincident with it). Oh yeah, and there's a deepening category 3 hurricane in the southern Caribbean to deal with, too.

richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:09 PM
Re: Box Theory

There is no Franklin

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:12 PM
models shift back right

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050715 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050715 0000 050715 1200 050716 0000 050716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 66.7W 14.6N 69.8W 15.9N 72.9W 17.4N 76.2W
BAMM 13.3N 66.7W 14.4N 70.2W 15.6N 73.7W 16.7N 77.4W
A98E 13.3N 66.7W 13.8N 70.0W 14.7N 73.0W 16.0N 75.9W
LBAR 13.3N 66.7W 14.5N 70.1W 15.9N 73.6W 17.4N 77.1W
SHIP 105KTS 109KTS 106KTS 103KTS
DSHP 105KTS 109KTS 106KTS 103KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050717 0000 050718 0000 050719 0000 050720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 79.3W 22.1N 85.0W 25.1N 89.7W 27.5N 93.1W
BAMM 17.9N 80.7W 20.4N 86.8W 22.5N 91.3W 24.5N 94.1W
A98E 17.5N 78.8W 20.5N 84.6W 23.3N 89.7W 26.3N 93.2W
LBAR 18.9N 80.5W 21.8N 86.3W 24.3N 91.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 101KTS 99KTS 95KTS 92KTS
DSHP 101KTS 99KTS 57KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 66.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 63.2W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 60.2W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 959MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 110NM


BAMD as far north as 27.5.....


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 PM
Re: models shift back right

Quote:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050715 0000 UTC

...BAMD as far north as 27.5.....




Wow Corpus Christi. Did the models shift N or is it just that they are extrapolating out further? Looking at wunderground...GFS seems to show the possibility of a N trend along the TX coast.


h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:40 PM
Re: Box Theory

Quote:

looks like franklin is getting its self together.




From the latest Atlantic Tropical Wx Discussion...

HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 42W S
OF 22N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 15
KT. THE LOW IS BETTER-DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY WITH HINTS OF
BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTIVE
REMAINS MODERATE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15.5N TO
20N BETWEEN 39W-42W. A LARGE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES
ALONG 50W SHOULD INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION TO THE LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA COULD
BECOME THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TREKS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN... THOUGH UPPER WINDS ARE MARGINAL.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:46 PM
Re: models shift back right

Per scott's mantra "Don't forecast anything past three days" seems to make perfect sense. The models known are finnaly feeling the weaknesses and finding the periphery of the ridge.

StormSurfer
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:49 PM
Tracking info

Does anyone know of anywhere to get up to date info to import into Streets and Trips for hurricane tracking? I know I can get the coordinates etc and do it myself but just wanted to see if anyone was already on the ball so i wouldn't have to start from scratch.
Thanks,


nowhammies
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:49 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Quote:

do you see any storms hitting central florida this season?





Oh darn - where is my crystal ball when I need it :?:


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 14 2005 09:52 PM
Re: models shift back right

its a definite shift north, however, the past several days the models have shifted north somewhat, and the NHC did not really change their forecast track, then the models shifted back west... back and forth, but not that dramatic of a shift all in all... need to see a trend continue to verify if it indeed is a real threat to the Texas coast... in my opinion I think it very well could be...

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:18 PM
Re: models shift back right

Heres a look at Emily from Aruba's radar...

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:39 PM
Pressure still dropping

958 via latest Recon, with max flight winds of 125Kts
T numbers at 6.0/6.0

110 or 115 Kts at 11pm?

-Mark


Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:40 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Quote:

Lysis wrote:

EDIT: On your last post, I have a question about wind speed in relation to the systems forward speed. The LI express comes to mind, where the wind gusts were 180mph + despite the fact that the storm was only a category 3. Is that a product of the extremely high speed that the storm was traveling?
Hurricane Hazel in the 50’s (?) is another one.





in 1938, the year of the LI express was that a very active season and how did the long island express get that name..i'd like to know this ebcuase i live on and lovee long island..haha also, how slim is it that anything hits "the island" and if it does, will the impact be only on the south shore, becuase im on the north shore of nassau county..thanks for the help

.Ryan

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html go look at 1938 there.. not a very active year, but that one little storm... if a hurricane moves over long island you'll feel it no matter which side you're on. -HF


drcrazibob
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:48 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

Here's something a little off topic from Emily... But Do any of you remember anything about Hurrican Agnes in 1972. It originated in the gulf, hit the panhandle of Florida. It continued straid up to through Ga, Sc, Nc, and into the Atlantic. It re-gained it's strength and basically went right up the Hudson River causing over 2 Billion in damage and killing 50 people. Talk about one crazy storm for the Northeast!!!! But I will admit, I was not born yet.

jaxmike
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

11 PM is out...

Emily winds of 125 mph and a pressure of 957 mbs.


bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble

As for the wave behind and emily and up north a little is that supposed to develop and if it does where will it go?

Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 10:58 PM
Re: Box Theory

Re: Hebert's box #2, RedingtonBeachGuy wrote:

"Looks like Emily is heading right for Paul Herbert's #2 box.. so much for that theory with Emily it seems.."

I'm not sure what "theory" he is referring to, but I am guessing it is the interpretation of Hebert's theory to mean that a hurricane that goes through the box will, or is likely to, hit S. Florida. That is not what the theory says.

If I remember correctly, Hebert looked at strong storms that had hit S. Florida and found that a large percentage of them (but not all of them) had passed through one of two boxes, the one near P.R. and the one in the Western Caribbean. However, the theory did NOT say that a storm that passes through those boxes will hit S. Florida; instead, it merely said that storms that hit S. Florida have often gone through one of those two boxes. There is a big difference. But yes, if that were the end of the story, it would generally mean that when a storm passes through one of those two boxes, South Floridians should keep a close eye on the storm.

However, there are differences with every storm, and in the case of Emily (or, for example, a rare storm - which perhaps has not occurred yet - which passes through the P.R. box moving from SW to NE), S. Fla. obvioulsly does not have to keep quite as close an eye on the storm. (Although, of course, we should always be watching anything in the tropics.)

And in fact, I'm pretty sure that the second Hebert box was based on pre-1950 data, and that the actual theory has not really held up for post-1950 storms. (And again, even if it had held up, I think it says a lot less than what RedingtonBeachGuy implied.)

Additionally, I think that Hebert's second box applied only to late-season storms, for which Emily certainly would not qualify. And climatologically that makes sense: storms that form in that area in October often move in the general direction of Florida, similar to Irene in 1999. (Although I'm not even sure if Irene passed through that box; it may have, but I'm just not sure.)

Every year there seems to be a lot of confusion about Hebert's boxes. I haven't read about them in detail in years, but I know Hebert said something a lot different than he's often interpreted to have said.

Best of luck to anyone in Emily's path.

-Brad


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:00 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Based on her CI # of 6, should the MB's be lower? Or has she lost intensity since that reading?

ohioaninmiss
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:00 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

From the 11:

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


What's the record on the earliest date for TWO cat 4 hurricanes?!? Yikes!


ohioaninmiss
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:09 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

From wunderground:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp

I know that Dennis and Emily should not follow the same path later, but look how identical they are now - WOW!


drcrazibob
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:11 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Quote:


What's the record on the earliest date for TWO cat 4 hurricanes?!? Yikes!




I think it's quite possible that almost everything that happens from now on this season will set some kind of record. ya know?


ohioaninmiss
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:12 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

yep - it's one for the books.

52255225
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:13 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Wow! pretty strange. You never know what will happen!

bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:20 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

I heard Franklin will be named a depression soon and could be going west so does this mean it could affect places like the Bahamas, Florida?

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:33 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Quote:

I heard Franklin will be named a depression soon and could be going west so does this mean it could affect places like the Bahamas, Florida?



Where did you hear this?


bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

I read it somewhere a couple of days ago....didnt know if it was true or not so was trying to get some truth to it.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:37 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

if it does it wont be for a day or 2 if at all....

Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:39 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Quote:

Quote:

I heard Franklin will be named a depression soon and could be going west so does this mean it could affect places like the Bahamas, Florida?



Where did you hear this?




yea a littllee to ealry for Frnaklin..Texas should watch out this could be a bad one for south texas..

florida spared..i have never heard of such things?!?!?!


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:44 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

The track seems to be shifting more northward. Could the storm possibly impact the central and upper Texas gulf coast if the high pressure doesn't build to the west?

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 14 2005 11:58 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Well anything is possible but the latest modles from the NHC show it hitting as far north as the upper teas area.So as of now anything in the cone is fair game and the cone can change at 5am one way or the other but the next 3 days look pretty much on target.

Big Red Machine
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 01:09 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Just doing a little speculating before I hit the hay...At first glance the early stage of the current run of the FSU appear to shift the track a tad further north. Should be interesting in the morning to see whether the end result of the current fsu model is any further north (just guessing, but maybe just southwest of Houston?). Perhaps even closer to western LA if the model takes it north of Jamaica.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/EMILY.track.png

Always fun to be devils advocate and play the watch every millimeter move one single computer model makes game.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Jul 15 2005 01:28 AM
Forecast Track

I'm seeing dropsonde HDOBs from one of the NOAA planes. Appears that they are conducting pre-storm enviroment drops. As the lastest dropsonde lat/ longs, are ahead of Emily.
Data may be used in the 12Z models. My speculation there


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Jul 15 2005 01:48 AM
Emily Now a CAT 4

HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 edited~danielw

..DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY REACHES CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

...INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE
AND ARE NOW NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS
NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...
**************************************************************************


Latest Vortex message has yet another pressure fall. Pressure is now down to 952mb at 0503Z.
Previous pressure was 958mb at 0130Z.
That's 6mb in 4.5 hours. A little better than Emily's earlier average of 2mb per hour.


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 01:49 AM
Re: RECON

Cat 4 now pressure down to 952mb

ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 01:53 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

ahhh never mind!






'shana

allrighty then - edited because all my questions were answered when you edited! lol


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 02:01 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

Quote:

ahhh never mind!






'shana

allrighty then - edited because all my questions were answered when you edited! lol





Daniel got me with one of those edits also Have a good night


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Jul 15 2005 02:02 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

Not necessarily faster. But she is stronger.
NHC has classified Emily a CAT 4, as of the latest Advisory.
Latest pressure fall, per hour, is slower than it was earlier today/ last night.
Slower pressure drops don't always mean the storm is leveling off. It's more of a trend than anything.

NHC was issuing information faster than I could post.~danielw


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 02:03 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

Whew... glad I'm not the only one! Daniel's a clever one, huh?

I'll be crashin soon - figure I'll be doin the up all night thing when Emily gets closer to the US...

'shana

Quote:

Slower pressure drops don't always mean the storm is leveling off. It's more of a trend than anything.




Oh ... ok! Everything's a trend with hurricanes... they trend their way across the ocean

And you're editing faster than I can type!!!


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 02:10 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

Does it look like shes doing an EWRC ?

ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 02:13 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

Sure hope you're not askin me about the EWRC! LOL

At least I know what it is....

'shana


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 02:16 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

Quote:

Sure hope you're not askin me about the EWRC! LOL

At least I know what it is....

'shana



Not yet, considering the convection is growing around the eye, not decreasing.


WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 15 2005 02:25 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

Man oh man, nothing ceases at amaze me at this point. I mean the rapid strengthening that Dennis and now Emily have undergone is just something to watch. Let's hope Emily stays south, but I am beginning to get the feeling that Emily might make a US landfall......Texas really needs to watch and I don't think Louisiana is out of the woods yet either.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Jul 15 2005 02:37 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

Quote:

Man oh man, nothing ceases at amaze me at this point. I mean the rapid strengthening that Dennis and now Emily have undergone is just something to watch. Let's hope Emily stays south, but I am beginning to get the feeling that Emily might make a US landfall......Texas really needs to watch and I don't think Louisiana is out of the woods yet either.




I'm with you. I don't feel comfortable with this one until she's made landfall. Or as some of the models are indicating...lost her spin.

Okay, Recon has departed the storm and next Vortex is due at 12Z or 8AM EDT. Unless the NOAA plane is tasked with fixes while the USAFR isn't flying.
NOAA planes pulled double duty with Dennis. They could do it again with Emily.


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 02:41 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

Quote:

Quote:

Man oh man, nothing ceases at amaze me at this point. I mean the rapid strengthening that Dennis and now Emily have undergone is just something to watch. Let's hope Emily stays south, but I am beginning to get the feeling that Emily might make a US landfall......Texas really needs to watch and I don't think Louisiana is out of the woods yet either.




I'm with you. I don't feel comfortable with this one until she's made landfall. Or as some of the models are indicating...lost her spin.

Okay, Recon has departed the storm and next Vortex is due at 12Z or 8AM EDT. Unless the NOAA plane is tasked with fixes while the USAFR isn't flying.
NOAA planes pulled double duty with Dennis. They could do it again with Emily.



Aren't the recon flights dropping drop sondes in the area to help determine the future environment?


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Jul 15 2005 03:04 AM
Dropsondes

I'm not seeing any reports from anyone other than the NOAA plane.
They have been doing High Density Observation type reports since 1 AM EDT.
I haven't looked at all of the reports but they are presently well West of Emily.
Recon normally does a Max Wind drop, an EYEWALL drop and another drop. I believe these three dropsonde drops are done just prior to each Center fix.
So you would get a drop, in reverse order, from inside the Eyewall, just outside the eye should be the Max Wind drop, and I'm not sure where the other drop is made.

This link might help.
http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/05/pdf/f-chap5.pdf
(Caution: large file for dialup users)


jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 15 2005 07:18 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Man oh man, nothing ceases at amaze me at this point. I mean the rapid strengthening that Dennis and now Emily have undergone is just something to watch. Let's hope Emily stays south, but I am beginning to get the feeling that Emily might make a US landfall......Texas really needs to watch and I don't think Louisiana is out of the woods yet either.




I'm with you. I don't feel comfortable with this one until she's made landfall. Or as some of the models are indicating...lost her spin.

Okay, Recon has departed the storm and next Vortex is due at 12Z or 8AM EDT. Unless the NOAA plane is tasked with fixes while the USAFR isn't flying.
NOAA planes pulled double duty with Dennis. They could do it again with Emily.



Aren't the recon flights dropping drop sondes in the area to help determine the future environment?



different missions for different sampling...i have seen recon out to over 500 miles in front of a system to do their sampling.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 07:23 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Quote:

From wunderground:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp

I know that Dennis and Emily should not follow the same path later, but look how identical they are now - WOW!




So much for Dennis churning up cooler water in places they both traveled... But, maybe if they stay on the same course, there's a chance for that?

What changed in the upper atmosphere that allowed Dennis to turn northward and go toward the Panhandle, but doesn't allow Emily to turn and sends her to Texas/Mexico? I'm sure there is no record of what things looked like for Dennis, so I can compare them to Emily, so I'll just have to trust an expert testimony.


firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 15 2005 07:46 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

Found another intresting link that allows you to look at the upper winds and it shows Emily in the central gulf 84 hrs from now. What a year....

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/winds/


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 15 2005 10:39 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane

down to 125mph at the 11am adv 968 mb pressure


Sorry didn't realize that there was a new thread.



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