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6PM 17.July Update Emily is nearing the Yucatan this evening, and the eye is viewable on the Cancun radar. The eye was looking ragged earlier, but it looks like its reforming now. Future track for a second landfall is still into Mexico, with southern Texas still inside the cone. 11AM 17.July Update Emily is holding as a strong Category 4 storm, with a relatively small eye. Warnings are up for the Yucatan, and landfall will likely be overnight. Since it is small it is likely to be weakened considerably by the yucatan so when it re-emerges in the Gulf it will still be a hurricane, but a much weaker one. And depending on how much the storm degrades, it may have a chance to become a major again for a second landfall most likely in Mexico near Tampico. 6PM Update Hurricane Emily is now a high end Category 4 storm, 1 MPH shy away from Category 5 status. It is possible for it to become a Category 5 briefly still. It is still moving toward the Yucatan, and will likely be category 3 or 4 when it makes landfall along the eastern coast. It will weaken some over land, and then emerge into the Bay of Camphece. A second landfall is Mexico beyond that is the most likely scenario. Folks up into southern texas will want to watch it as well. 99L is turning out to sea, leaving not much else currently in the tropics after Emily, which will be a welcome break. Original Update Hurricane Emily continues to Deepen in the Caribbean, now a category 4 storm, and has a chance at category 5, although if it does I doubt it will hold that extreme very long. Emily is passing south of Jamaica, and the Caymans, but close enough that the Caymans will see strong winds, maybe as high as category 1 strength. Before it has moved on The Yucatan will have to deal with this directly later, and Hurricane watches will likely be up for parts of it later today. Beyond that, and after it crosses the Yucatan. (Which should knock a lot of the intensity out of ti) it still looks like a Mexico hit or possibly Texas. The more likely of the two is into Mexico.. Event Related Links StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands Caribbean Island Weather Reports Color Sat of Gulf (Animated) RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms Emily Flhurricane mirror of cancun radar - Cancun Radar Loop Cancun, MX radar (Overloaded please use mirrors) Tampico, MX radar Visible/IR Floater of Emily with storm track Overlays Animated Model Plot of Emily Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily Emily Spaghetti Model from boatus Weather Underground Model Plots for Emily QuikScat Image of Emily Dennis and emily plotted on a google map Webcams, Video, Audio Jim Edds/weathervine chasing hurricane Emily in Cancun Cancun Webcams Cozumel Webcams Hurricane City's audio feed, show starts at 11PM EDT Radio NHCWX Area east of Emily (99L) Animated Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District) |
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Had a question for Clark but it got caught in the last thread. My computer doesnt seem to want to copy and pase this morning, so I'm hoping Clark takes a look at it over there. Thanks. |
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OK, visited the new Forecast Lounge forum, ready to make a forecasting fool out of myself! All as a way to provide a learning experience. Not anything happening over there yet so I hope you'll keep advertising the new forums. Well I think this is the best of everything today - the opportunity to watch a strong storm develop, with no immediate landfall to put many folks in harm's way. Yesterday Emily had it out with that upper level TROF: she strapped on the pistols and announced, "Turn over the warm water, and no one gets hurt!" |
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Quote: I copy your questions to the new thread..... Hey Clark-- Given that Emily has ramped up considerably and may intensify a bit more, is there any way that she might steer on a slightly more northerly heading. Nothing significant, just perhaps a subtle change from ~285 to perhaps, say, ~290 or 295. Isn't it possible for very strong storms to eat into ridges a bit? Just was thinking perhaps she might miss the Yucatan that way, and perhaps spin down a bit in the Gulf of Mexico. As it looks now, the Yucatan Peninsula is going to take some serious heat from this thing. Thanks. Appreciative of your insight, as always. |
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winds 145 gust 185 943 mb at the 11am adv |
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If the storm does get to Texas coast area, there is 90 degree temperature water awaiting her. That could provide the energy for a last hurrah in strengthening if she weakens over a first landfall in the Yucatan. |
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What is going on with the threads?I am lost. |
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Having lived in Playa Del Camen on the Yucatan for 3 years,I have this morning offerd my friends that are there a place to stay here with me.Also I am working with them for flight arrangments to get then out of there.Anyone who has been there knows,there is no place there that is safe,and I mean no where.Many times I used to sit on the beach there and say to myself Ïf a major hurricane ever hit here it would wipe this town out".Well it looks like that is what will happen.For those that have never been there,it is one of the coolest places on this earth.Please pray for all those who can not get out in time. |
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Stronger storms do have a tendency to move a bit further north -- with the upper level flow -- than do weaker storms, but given the current flow pattern, there isn't a lot other than wobbling and the effects of Coriolis to help to move it off towards the north. It might move a little bit more WNW as it nears the Yucutan, but unless the western extent of the subtropical ridge erodes to some degree, it may well turn back moreso towards the west. |
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Thanks, Clark. I have just one more question. The five-day NHC track takes this thing well into central Mexcico, still as a tropical storm. Any chance any of that rain will reach extreme southern New Mexico/Arizona, or will the storm most likely track over Mexico south of the U.S. (including the Southwest)? |
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Quote: Unfortunately, no. |
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Quote: The earliest Cat 5 recorded was 1980's Hurricane Allen, which reached Cat 5 intensity on 00Z August 5. At this point ,the storm had winds of 160mph with a central pressure of 911mb. --Lou |
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Looks to me like Emily's strengthening is done for now, and she maybe even weaken a little until later this aft/early evng, and then start to strengthen again. However the surface winds could still catch up before this happens, initially to go to 150-155 briefly, but then I am thinking they would fall back down to 145, 140, over the next three hours, then strengthening again. Eye is very impressive. It has grown quite a bit - what are the implications of this, if any? |
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latest recon fix has the min pressure at 940mb and winds at 150mph. HF 1655z16july |
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Quote: Not surprising considering Discussion 23 "...with 700 mb flight-level winds as high as 148 kt. This would normally support surface winds of 130-135 kt." But look at the cloud tops on the west side the last couple sat photos - not as cold now. Although to Emily's credit she is staying compact. |
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there is alot of waves out there which one is gonna be named first? |
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has gotten larger, and is perfect now. I suspect Emily will be a cat 5 storm. Is there any chance that she could begin a more northward turn?....if this storm slips through the Yucatan, and hits NO...it'll be a disaster of monumental proportions. Anyone on the Yucatan in anything less than a conrete block building....will be in serious danger of losing their lives....when they get to 150+...we all know it's now a question of survival. HankFrank...watchya think?......could the ridge weaken?...could Emily head more north...?....I wonder....because she "appears" to edging ever so more north than west through the hours.... not wishcasting....I live on a boat, ya know... no. maybe texas. more likely mexico all the way. -HF |
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It is pretty much a given that this storm is headed for Mexico maybe lower teas but Mexico looks like its ending point. Can you not tell by the lack of posts? since no big doom and gloom for the US its a non event to some. Anyway as of this ADV little or no chance for NO. |
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looking at the sat imagery if she stays on that northerly track it looks like the keys will get brushed by her. |
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Don't know if you are reading your PMs...here is a website that shows websites to all the US Embassies and Consulates in Mexico: http://usembassy.state.gov/ And here is the website for the Mexican ones in the US (note there is one in Boston): http://www.mexonline.com/consulate.htm |
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Clever little minx - she's getting smaller (observe overall surface area on sat images between 10:45 and 16:15 UTC). |
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Winds up to 155 at 2pm 937mb |
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Another interesting thing going on is the Super Typhoon Haitang. It is a Cat 5 right now. Quite interesting that we have two incredibly powerful cyclones opposite each other in the world right now. |
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Quote: It dropped 6 mbs in 3 hours. Wow. Strengthening rapidly still. |
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Margie......thanks for the notes.......have been busy calling Mexico.....finally reached the organization through a website.......and they did return my call (from a site in Penn). They are moving the group tomorrow morning by bus from the eastern part to Merida.....more on the western side. Still seems risky, but at least it is a move. Hurricane intensifying is not comforting......Hoping that tomorrow is not too late as well. |
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Should be due for an EWRC soon.... hopefully that will put a stop to this mad strengthening.... |
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Quote: and then what it comes back as a 170 -175 mph cane in 12 hours ? not sure how that's good |
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It doesn't have to though... the weakening phase is a good thing, and then perhaps conditions will change and not allow it to restrengthen.... Seems like there's at least a chance to me, rather than purely intensifying... |
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Quote: Merida looks to be the largest city in the Yucatan, with some fancy hotels, freeways, an airport - and all on the west side of the Yucatan, but not on the coast. Looks very, very safe. I don't think you need to worry any more. Encarta map: http://encarta.msn.com/map_701517806/Yucat%C3%A1n_(state_Mexico).html |
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Margie......thanks again. I do feel more relaxed and will save the links that you listed for me. I think my daughter is a hurricane magnet.......this is not the first time we have been in this situation....although this one is harder to deal with. Funny, because I am the hurricane watcher and she has no interest in them! |
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Well would you look at that? The Jamaican land mass didn't affect her that much, the core got smaller, and son of a gun if a band of colder cloud tops wrapping quickly around the western side isn't filling in the circular shape nicely. I thought something was happening a couple of hours ago - looking at the water vapor it seemed like the outflow hit a bit of a wall - at around 82W on a N-S line but I guess that wasn't anything, and I'm just not that good at reading the maps yet. Guess that warm water she's been going over is really helping things along. I had always thought she'd go to a CAT 5 today, but I had envisioned the big strengthening happening later this aft and into this evng. Not looking so good for Cozumel and Cancun, but the roller coaster ride of intensity could mean Emily won't be this powerful at landfall. Looks like the minimum will be a strong CAT 3 though. |
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what bout the wave ne of her? |
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If I were in the Caymans and Cozumel, I would definitely get off the island. |
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the met service in jamica is taking screen shots with a digital camera of emily...take a look http://www.metservice.gov.jm/Emily2.jpg |
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well been watching emily with the RSO vis and have to say....WOW...haven't seen anything like this since IVAN....the pictures (sat shots) are......WOW.......the eye stadium effect is pretty kewl.....i can't wait to see what NASA will have in the next day or so of emily...i wouldn't want to be in cancun this weekend... and looks like we may have the first cat 5 soon...(or second as some folks say) here's a pea at a shot http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/126.jpg |
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Emily may reach Cat 5 status. Have there been other storms that reached Cat 5 in July? Weather experts: Do you think the storms may just be forming early this year and during the normal "peak season" there will be fewer storms? Are do you think the tropics will continue to be active throughout the season? |
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Quote: Lou answered this earlier in the thread -- here's his response: Quote: Allison |
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Quote: Sounds to me as if you have quite an issue with the people that post here. Please remember - we are all REAL human beings with feelings. I for one do not appreciate the fact that my concern for others ends when a storm leaves the borders of FL. I live in Central FL and went through the storms and recovery last year. This makes me a bit gun-shy and a bit more concerned as I see, or hear, possibilities that storms may affect me. IN NO WAY does that make storms that do not appear to affect me a non-issue. I have friends that like all around the GOM basin, including contacts from other organizations that live in other countries. I am very concerned aboput them as well. My prayers are as much with them as they are for my own town when we appear to be in the cross hairs. True many of us do not post as much when a storm turns elsewhere, but that has much more to do with the fear for our own safety subsiding and allowing us the ability to watch and learn from those who are much more knowledgeable about these storms then we are. I realize that this comment would be better directed to PM but since you are unregistered I could not do that. Thanks again to everyone here (and that would be just about all of you) who know more about these incredible storms than I do. You willingness to provide information to me ad everyone else has helped me develop a true healthy respect for these storms. |
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I was wondering about this as Dennis made landfall last weekend, and now it's coming up again with Emily: What is the average time in between EWRC's? And how long after completion of an EWRC does the intensity peak before the next replacement cycle begins? Thanks! |
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Quote: Nope. Earlier in this post or the previous one someone asked and the reply was that the earliest recorded Cat 5 was Allen in 1980 who became a Cat 5 on Aug 5th. And came ashore just south of the Mexico- US border .... almost exactly where Emily is supposed to be heading... 'shana lol @ Allison Great minds and all that! |
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Clark posted a good explanation of this a while back (too much to wade through to find it). I am sure he will elaborate when he has time, or will correct me if I am misrepresenting what he said , But in summary, we know very little about eyewall replacement, we don't know exactly why it happens, and know very little as to the timing of when it happens, just that it does happen, mostly (but not always) with major hurricanes. Bill |
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To me this is more interesting than if a hurricane was headed for the US; one I'm much more relaxed, now that I don't have to worry about someone I love being in a risky weather situation. Two because how many storms to we get to observe that can go to CAT 5 status? It is just facinating to watch. Even the last two sat visuals (17:45 and 18:15 UTC) are facinating; look at the perfectly round donut shape of the tight core of clouds around the eye. |
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Quote: Thanks, Bill! We have been talking alot about eyewalls on this board lately, but I didn't remember seeing anything specifically about timing of the replacement cycle and when peak intensity occurs in the cycle... But I did manage to go back and find one of Clark's explanations from several months ago: Quote: So I guess the answer is... |
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Look at 18:45 UTC water vapor...she is still cooking. EDIT: 19:45 UTC looks even more impressive. She looks like a CAT 5 now; it will be interesting to see the results of the next recon. |
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FYI ... even if Emily goes in south of the border, she could affect alot of people not only in Mexico, but in South and Central Texas. 'shana |
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I don't know if Central Texas may get much out of Emily, maybe some rain but I don't think it would....but anyone else know if Emily is supposed to hit Central Florida or at least bands to hit Central Texas. I think Southern Texas might get hit by Emily...I dont know about Central, it is possible...what does everyone else think? |
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any new recon info ? |
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Can someone tell me if this is the latest vortex? If so 151kts in the NE Quad is almost 170mph. Is this right? URNT12 KNHC 161739 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 16/17:17:40Z B. 16 DEG 22 MIN N 077 DEG 52 MIN W C. 700 MB 2549 M D. 25 KT E. 317 DEG 103 NM F. 052 DEG 141 KT G. 335 DEG 008 NM H. 937 MB I. 9 C/ 2986 M J. 20 C/ 3047 M K. 12 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C11 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 2 NM P. AF302 0705A EMILY OB 23 MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 15:18:30 Z |
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Thats flight level wind = 174 mph. Surface winds would equate to ~ 150 - 160 MPH. Still 155 MPH at 5PM. |
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Pretty Impressive http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/hurseas2005/Emily1845zc-050716-1kg12.jpg (copy/paste into IE) |
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Quote: ok thanks I was getting worried there for a sec thought I was looking at another Camille or something. Aint too good her in da south to read all this recon/ vortex but learning |
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Very well put! |
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I just realized the huge gap between the time I get to see the sat image on NHC's website and the timing of the information from the recon flights...it's quarter to four local time (2045Z) and I just looked at the most recent sat image but it is an hour old (1945Z). Emily's core has looked "better" with every sat image so I can only imagine what she looks like right now. |
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Quote: Yes but that's going on the recon from just after noon today CDT, right? We should be seeing the results of another recon by around dinnertime? |
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Quote: I'm just going by what happened with two previous big hurricanes - Gilbert and Allen. There were tornadoes etc here. It's pretty difficult for a hurricane to actually hit Austin - we're not on the coast. But Carla in 1961 was still a Cat 1 when she got here. And the Rio Grande Vallley (Brownsville on up the river, Larado etc) could possibly get the bad side of Emily depending on how far N/S she is on landfall. I'm not gloom and doomin south and central Texas, just sayin that if Emily makes landfall in Mexico, parts of Texas could be adversely affected. 'shana |
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Quote:Quote: I would assume that they are pretty much in and out all the time. |
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Someone mentioned earlier about the lack of posts on the board, or lack of interest for Emily... I don't agree that there is any lack of interest... I am following Em just as diligently as I did Dennis... only issue or rather non issue with Emily is that is has been so well behaved and basically right on track, with the exception of its tremendous intensification process, which is absolutely amazing to watch... I think things will pick up quite a bit on the board once it enters the GOM... and yes, there is more interest all in all if there appears it could impact the US... I think a threat to Florida generates the most interest, following by a central or east central GOM threat, but that is only natural of course... Emily is an amazing system... I just can't imagine the stress level that would preclude it if it were to threaten the US as a strong 4 or heavens forbid a 5... One only has to wonder what's in store for the all of us for rest of the season... and how likely some poor city is going to get blasted with a major hurricane later on.. It almost seems inevitable at the moment... |
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Quote:Quote:Quote: No, I think they have a schedule and I think it is every six hours. I am not sure if I am understanding it correctly but it looks like right now it takes them about five hours just to get there, after taking off. I was reading about what they do with those C-130s. They take the entire center of the plane where you'd normally have cargo or people, and turn it into one huge gas tank. |
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5:00 is up - looks like they will keep her at a 4, although they did say she could fluctuate between a 4 and 5 "SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES. " I guess they don't call it a 5 unless the hurricane stays up there a bit? I mean, nhc won't make updates every hours, minute, (insert fluctuating time period here) saying, "she's a 4, now she's a 5, back to 4, up to 5" over and over, would they? |
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Quote:Quote: Ditto to what Shana said... also, think about what Dennis has done to the Ohio Valley, Atlanta, and other points well inland of the coast. Of course, it all depends on where she makes landfall, which direction she is moving, how big she is at the time, and any other weather features that may be in place -- but sure, Central Texas could see parts of Emily.... |
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That is one perfrct storm. Amazing that we have had TWO CAT 4 Hurricanes of 150mph or more in July! This is one scary Hurricane season. |
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Quote: Welcome back to the forums Sircane. Did ya'll get much damage with Dennis ? |
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With this storm, all afternoon each satellite frame just looks better than the next one (better in the sense the storm looks stronger and balanced), even when you think it can't get more perfect. What an afternoon! We won't get to see anything like this again in a long time. Looks like it may finally start to take that more northerly path, and may just skim the edge of the Yucatan instead of a direct hit, but all afternoon it's been going in a straight line, no jogs, nothing, just smooth sailing for Emily. Just thought it seemed to jog a little north...but maybe it will remain a jog. Am I the only one who can hardly wait to see the results of the next recon? |
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what satelite are you looking at? and what do you think the waves will do that are after emily? doesnt look like any of them will be named |
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Been comunicating via email with my friends in Playa del Carmen.People there are very laid-back , But today it seems to have really hit them that they could lose there town.Some are heading to Merida some will be staying with me here.This was one of the fastest growing towns in the world,but still there are no buildings over 3 stories.Already you can not buy any booze,this is the law there when a hurricane watch or warning is issued.Sadly to say there will be many deaths there.The whole area is about at sea level.Storm surge is going to be the real killer.My first quests from there arrive here late tonight.There are alot of americans that live and work there.Looks like they need a big favor from the man upstairs,to stair this away somehow. |
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The next recon soon...I for one am holding my breath to see just how strong Emily is gonna be. Now that the sun is low you can really see the stadium effect on the visible sat. |
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8 pm update: Pressure down to 929mb, winds are still at 155mph |
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I wonder if that will be enough for Cat 5 at 11.... I'll have to stay up for that... |
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where the heck is franklin? i dont see him or anything out there now. |
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Surprised the winds did not increase, but after all pressure is still above 920. Guess it is better to be on the conservative side. Will be interested to see the recon data! EDIT - OK now, hoping someone will explain this...max flt lvl winds went up from 141kt to 149kt which would seem to indicate Cat 5, although deg thermal gradient went down from 11 to 10. Pressure dropped 8mb in 6 hours. Why not a Cat 5? |
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And, that motion looks like it has clearly been NW for a while.... if it continues on the present course it won't even clip the Yucatan.... |
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Hey have a quick question......have relatives going down to the bahamas leaving next wednesday and returning the week after....should they have any worries? |
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Post deleted by Margie |
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I would think that if it drops anouther 8mb to around 920 by 10pm that they would have to call it a cat 5 . Does anyone think that this could get below 900mb ? |
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Quote: As the storm pressure drops the steering currents change for the system. Here is an analysis of the steering currents at the current pressure and you may be correct. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html |
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Quote: We'll have to wait until morning for the next recon. I don't see how it could get much below 920, 915. It passed over the warmest water today and is running out of ocean real estate before cooler water. |
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Quote: At this time No. They need to be ready to leave on the first indication of anything headed their way. Or around the Virgin Isles. |
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Quote: Answering my own post...a little sick, I guess. I realized maybe there is a lot of analysis for NHC to do with the recon data, and why jump the gun before doing a complete analysis. 11pm advisory is plenty of time to upgrade to Cat 5, and maybe even wait until morning recon if it is borderline. EDIT - I was just thinking also - if deepening continues at this same rate, which is certainly possible, it could be down to 920mb by next recon. |
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That's what I was thinking, as frequently there are changes at 11p, but I wasn't sure, so I kept my mouth shut. |
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Here's a quick way to estimate the Flight Level winds to Surface Winds. Take the reported Flight Level Wind. Change the knots to mph, and you have a rough estimate of the Surface Wind. Without all the math. |
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So we're looking at about 171mph surface winds now? |
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Quote: Here's an interesting tidbit... Gilbert reached 888mb at 19.7N 83.8W -- just south of the Isle of Youth. I don't know if there's any way to find out what the conditions surrounding Gilbert were at that time, and how they might differ from the conditions around Emily -- although most likely he wasn't headed into cooler waters... Margie, out of curiosity, where do you see cooler water ahead? I can't find the link to sea surface temps that I used to use -- do you have a good one? Thanks! |
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Quote: LOL! Maybe that's how NL will get his Cat 6.... (kidding) |
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yeah there ya go. my super 6 lol! j/k |
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Quote:That doesn't seem to be correct. |
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I googled for web sites during Dennis and found several but didn't bookmark them...but the most recent I saw was posted in Steve Gregory's wunderground blog. He's really accurate and an interesting read as well. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html Page down a ways. I don't have a handle on how often the ocean temps change but I think it is something to look at daily, so what is warm one day may not be the next, also the depth of the warm water is a factor as well. |
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Quote: I think he means: 150kt flight level winds = 150mph surface level winds. That sounds about right based on the NWS eyewall profile study: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml - pay particular attention to Figure 1. Changing kt to mph is equivlent of 0.86 flightlevel winds to surface winds, so it would show as slightly weaker than it really "is" (is is appoximate - check the two sample profiles to understand why). --RC (a random lurker) |
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Quote: Thanks. That's a great link, too. It's just a rough, fast way to determine what the Surface Winds are. Each storm is a bit different...as there are no Perfect Storms. 150kts x 1.15=172.5mph x 0.86=148.35mph. So the 150kt Flt Lvl Wind, is roughly 150mph at the surface. |
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Latest pass through the center. At 0117Z 9:17 PM EDT. Pressure now at 931mb. 10 nm Eye. |
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It is now 8:55EST. Winds gusting to just over 21MPH out of the East. A small bit of lightening with some of the bands came in. It was a beautiful day here, and the sunset cast a red glow all around. Looking NW at sunset had beautiful "mare's tails" that were red, looking SW had dark, low heavy clouds. Amazing! The moon peaked through and was turquoise. TS force winds expected at 2300 EST, strongest winds expected at 0500 EST 60 - 85 kts, TS then expected to last until 1000EST. Curfew in place from 2300 tonight until 1100 tomorrow morning. Water company has shut down the water, utilities said it will stay up until a line is down (hopefully that won't happen Everyone is sitting now, waiting. I would like to thank Ed for his fantastic updates, they have helped tremendously! Sher |
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Quote: so shes weakening now ? Or doing an EWRC |
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Quote: Good luck, Sher! |
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anyone watching the history channel? there is stuff bout hurricanes. just seen galveston and 1991 grace. |
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The best site I have found for Surface Sea Temps, Oceanic Heat Content, and Depth of 26°C water is: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ They have both global maps, and ones for main areas, such as Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. |
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From that (if you look at Caribbean and GOM), it appears that temps are only going to get warmer as Emily progresses. |
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Quote:Hoping Emily stays south of you. Cox Lumber, St. Petersburg |
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Quote:Quote: From Steve Gregory's wunderground blog: "Another RECON report shows the pressure is up 2mb, but there are times that the dropsonbde 'misses' the dead center of the storm. But in any case, pressure seems to have stabilized, and the last few stepped IR images seem to be showing a weakning to the convection on the sSSW side of the 10NM wide eyewall, and we may be starting an eyewall replacement cycle. The temp difference is between the inside and outside of the eye is as high as I've ever seen, 16degC. This implies an extyremely tight, very healthy circulation. So the weakening of convection on the south side of the eye wall almost certainly is the first signs of an eye wall cycle replacement. With very warm, high heat content water ahead, and no change seen to impact the outflow a top the hurricane -- Emily will probably resume some further intensification, reaching CAT 5 status during the next 18 hrs. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ JULY 16 - 7:55PM CDT Hurricane Emily has now broken the all-time record for strongest storm so early in the season, with a central pressure of 929mb." |
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The Heat Content map shows Emily should stay strong through landfall on the Yucatan peninsula, but will not have the heat content needed to get back to a Cat 4 on the other side. |
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I love Steve Gregory's blogs, too. Between him, Jeff Masters, and the folks here, I have learned bunches!! |
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Also I figured out why the surface winds didn't change from 155mph from the older recon (from six hours previous). Even though max flt lvl winds were 141kt in section F. (I think also this was from the NW quad), the notes in section P. showed max of 151kt in NE quad. That is the number they went by in the earlier recon, not the 141kt. So change from 151 to 149 max flt lvl winds is not significant. And even though the pressure dropped from 937 to 929 it still wasn't quite low as they look for to determine a Cat 5 (920). I think I looked at it all day, and it looked so perfect I could not believe it was not yet a Cat 5. Still looks so awesome on the sat images. Try a factor of 1.04 for computing the surface winds from the max flt lvl winds. Doesn't look like it would make such a difference, however it makes a little bit of difference. 149 * 1.04 = 155. However this factor doesn't always stay the same. |
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Sher that description is poetry. Well it will really be interesting to have a Cayman Is observer posting on this site when Emily goes by! |
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HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z SUN JUL 17 2005 (edited~danielw) AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES... AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. |
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Still 155 at 11 PM. 930 mb. |
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MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT., but 135kts is 155.5 mph... that doesn't count? |
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The remnants of Dennis are still wandering around the US, raining on everyone's parade. |
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The eye seems to be getting less distinct on the latest IR sat pics. EWRC happening? |
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Terra -- I read somewhere (Steve Gregory, and I think someone here quoted him on this, too) that at this point they prefer to go by pressure, and 920 and below is the pressure to go to CAt 5 |
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Quote: You can see the eye getting a little smaller very clearly on the water vapor loop. It was 12nm this aft I believe, down to 10nm at the last recon? Not 100% sure on those numbers. Well it if is still 10nm it may have a little way to go, maybe down to 8nm, before an ERC? But that seems to be the speculation in the air all 'round anyway. |
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Can't be... that would be against the SS scale... since it is a windspeed scale. The pressure numbers are estimates.... Now, feel free to prove me wrong if you remember where that info was posted. |
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From Steve Gregory... The RECON so far found a max wind of 149kts, but it is likely, that 160kt max flight level winds are occurring. Typically, 920mb is the threshold / benchmark standard, besides wind data, used in the Atlantic basin to Categorize a storm as having CAT 5 intensity -- the highest Category. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html It is confusing...SS is a wind scale, so I was with you, waiting for the upgrade, until I read this... |
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You are correct in that the intensity scale (Category) is based on wind. But, one minor correction: the conversion factor from knots to mph is 1.15, i.e., 135kts times 1.15 equals 155.25mph. Cheers, ED |
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Quote: Intensity a function of both pressure and wind speed - pressure is officially 930. Also deepening has stopped, evening has come, and an ERC might be starting. It is more probable that intensity will now fluctuate downward until after the reorg that will come after an ERC (if one occurs). That might be happening tomorrow when the storm will be going over warm waters again and have the heat from the sun. More likely to see a Cat 5 tomorrow afternoon or evening rather than tonight. One thing though, it seems that in these warm tropical waters it is possible to have just as much strengthening in the nighttime as in the daytime. So maybe time of day is not such a factor at this type of location. |
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Actually, I cheated and used a table.... How about this conversion factor (that came up when I looked for the conversion table I used): 1 knots = 1.15077945 mph That's a lot of significant figures!!! So, that would mean... 155.35522575 Seriously though, I think the 1.15 is plenty of sig figs... I can't imagine a conversion factor having 9! Thanks for the correction. I always seem to get busted when I'm being lazy.... I guess that should tell me something! Hey, it's Saturday. Laziness permitted~danielw |
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From Discussion 25: "EMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HOWEVER... AN AIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED 931 MB. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 135 KT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM TAFB... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A CATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME. SINCE BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO POSE NOTHING OBVIOUS TO WEAKEN EMILY... INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA." Makes a lot of sense. Also looks like NHC knew they'd have to provide detailed logic as to why not upgrade to a Cat 5. Also notice they are now mentioning the possibility Emily may not hit Yucatan peninsula at all. |
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Cayman Islands blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/CaymanMike/show.html Also can listen live to his radio station (only if IE is your browser): http://www.rooster101.ky/ |
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Center fix-Vortex should be out shortly. Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 096 Knots (110.4 MPH) From 281° Minimum Pressure: 939 Millibars (27.727 Inches) Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: E15/16/8 Looks like an ERC is starting.~danielw |
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And just the right time for an ERC too...good for the Cayman Is, and a good time for me to go to bed! |
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Quote: Works jut fine with Safari 2.0 or Firefox under Mac OS X 10.4.1 too... |
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That was three rights. And four rights, go around the block! |
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Just got this info from a friend. Neil Frank from KHOU said Chance for Emily to take a right turn. Key to where she will go is the florida high. Low over Texas is anticipated to weaken & Florida high moves. But if high stalls and doesn't move to the west, emily will take a more northerly track. Wednesday's local forecast is a little uncertain. There is an outside chance the storm could come our way |
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HCW - Saw this earlier http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_strike.html, that put LA/MS in the 5% possibility area. Still really slim, but you never know. Probably not, though...Emily seems to go where she wants to, and there is something to the west that she wants (refried beans?) oops - they changed it ... now just up into LA! I swear it was different earlier!! |
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as far as all the discussion over what defines a cat 5 and whether emily would make the cut... the fact that the pressure has thus far bottomed at 929 and not gotten to 920 means nothing really... a storm with a higher pressure can have cat 5 winds, it's just a function of how tight the inner core gradient is. in this case it's very tight, so a slightly higher than traditional pressure is producing near cat 5. the standard for flight level to surface windspeed reduction is 90%. 150kt X .9 =135kt or 155mph. this doesn't always work out and they call it as best they can based on what the dropsondes and recon onboard instruments say... and adjust by how good the satelite presentation is. not a standard formula to it, really... forecaster interpretation comes into play beyond that. all in all they do pretty good, though. anyhow... expected track mostly unchanged. probably going to get the yucatan higher than i was talking last night, and the mexican mainland perhaps a little south (that left bank under the continental ridge has become more pronounced in the models). on the other hand i can see some weaknesses above the 500mb level (weak upper lows linked from the gulf to yucatan) that may reshuffle the deck. forecast track still looks pretty close to reality, though. i'm not certain yet, but it looks like 99L is breaking through the upper trough. the convective area from this afternoon looked like the shear had won, and was left behind by the low-level cyclonic kink... but more developed after dark closer to 23/54.. and this is moving wnw. if enough has made it through, the main influence will on this system will change to the ridging off the east coast and the northerly flow west of the upper trough... a less mitigating factor as time progresses. i'd say this thing is up to 50-50 now on spinning up. the models don't have it drawn up right, but the piece that got through ought to be enough. be wary of this thing on the east coast if it starts developing. SAL more influential behind the 99L system and is squelching subsequent waves, even though their signature is decent. the east atlantic will have more trouble generating a system for now (until the larger august waves start coming off), but these can still fester further to the west. fortunately the globals aren't latching onto anything. HF 0555z17july |
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The 5 PM EDT Advisory had very low probabilities for Louisiana. New Iberia, LA 2 (not on the latest Strike Probs list) Port Arthur, TX 4 Galveston, TX 7 Freeport, TX 8 Port O'Conner, TX 10 Corpur Christi, TX 11 Brownsville, TX 15 These are from the 5 PM EDT Advisory. THat's probably where they are getting their data for the map. |
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Thanks HF - I was getting a bit confused. Great explanation! |
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To correct a previous post... Hurricane Allen made landfall NORTH of the US-Mexico border... close Laguna Vista and Port Mansfield, TX. Happened Aug 10 1980. By the time Allen moved ashore, it's maximum sustained winds were 100kts. It's greatest impact was in the desolate area of Northern Cameron county and Willacy county. Allen's path was north of Jamaica ... and north of the Yucatan peninsula. |
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Any thoughts on what the former director of the NHC Neil Frank said on the 10pm newscast ? |
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I bet he spends a great deal of the next two days at the office...or online. Not to mention a call or two from NHC. |
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True, Allen came in just barely north of the border. I was confused by the graphics they were using on the local news. Our local newscasters keep mentioning Allen and all the tornados Austin had. I didn't live here then. Thank you |
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2 am EDT position...17.7 N... 81.2 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 943 mb. |
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Quote: Neil Frank is the only local guy I trust when it comes to hurricanes near Houston. With that said, I have a lot of confidence in the NHC and how they're tracking storms this year. And their track is pulling more and more to the south, not to the north -- that's good enough for me... (for now) Anytime one of these things gets anywhere near the Yucatan, our local mets get all charged up about it... (not so long ago, one met, Frank Billingsley, was even seen drawing an "xtrap"-type line between Dennis and Houston while all the models clearly showed Dennis moving toward FL/AL... ) If Neil Frank is still talking about it on Monday, then I'll worry... |
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Okay Recon has departed the storm. Unless they happen to find something on the way out, like they did yesterday, no more reports until around 800 AM EDT. |
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Current Weather Conditions: Owen Roberts Airport, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands (MWCR) 19-17N 081-21W 3M Conditions at Jul 17, 2005 - 02:00 AM EDTJul 17, 2005 0600 UTC Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 35 MPH (30 KT) Visibility greater than 7 mile(s) Sky conditions mostly cloudy Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed Temperature 80 F (27 C) Dew Point 73 F (23 C) Relative Humidity 78% Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa) ob MWCR 170600Z 10030KT 9999 FEW016CB BKN080 27/23 Q1011 NOSIG http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html |
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Looks like Emily was a cat 5 for a while tonight....just not long enough to be one at the advisory time. Without doing much looking....how many years in a row have we had a cat 5 now (if we could Emily)? |
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Emily fell short of the CAT 5 category. Both in wind speed and pressure. HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 (edited~danielw) AT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 153 KT. THE STANDARD ADJUSTMENT OF THIS VALUE TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD 138 KT...OR JUST ABOVE THE CATEGORY FIVE THRESHOLD. AT THAT TIME HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND ON THE NEXT PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY 132 KT WINDS WERE FOUND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z... THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/17. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE DURATION. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...EMILY WILL BE APPROACHING A MODEST MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN A RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK BEFORE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION RESUMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. bold emphasis added~danielw |
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Checking the 5 AM Strike Probabilities. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT5+shtml/170840.shtml NHC has added New Iberia, LA., back into the group. This is probably in response to a model showing a northward trend. New Iberia, LA had been removed from the 11 PM Strike Probs. last night. Port Arthur, TX gained 1 point in the 5 AM Probs. Also noted, again probably due to model trends doing their 6 hour swing, were drops in the Total Probability for: Galveston, TX -1 point Freeport, TX -2 points Port O' Conner, TX -3 points Corpus Christi, TX -4 points Brownsville, TX -4points These reflect the 5 AM Advisory only. Please refer to Official NHC Advisories and Strike Probabilities. As they change, to some degree, every 6 hours. If you are In, or Near the 'cone' of certainty. Please make preparations for a landfalling Tropical Cyclone. As of the 5 AM Update. The Cone extends from the Corpus Christi area, South to below Tampico, Mexico. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/085921.shtml?3day?large |
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I think that if we want to look at a CAT5 we should look at the other side of the world and have a look at the supertyphoon Haitang http://www.supertyphoon.com/storms/05w.html |
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...and what a good morning it is! Emily stayed way south, further south than forcasted. Highest sustained winds 35MPH experienced around 0300EST. Currently winds around 25 out of the East with light rain. Electricity stayed on all night. Curfew still in place. Understand waves have come across Pedro Bluff inland 1/2 mile. Waiting for curfew to be lifted before being able to assess. I have enjoyed reading the forums for about a month now, and look forward to continuing to participate. Our thoughts are with those folks in Mexico now. We anticipate business as usual tomorrow--(I have to get all my staff back who we evacuated Friday!) Cheers |
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Quote: Oh no, it really is still headed for a direct hit on Taiwan! Have they ever had one before? They have so many tall buildings that are apartment houses and the island is already so crowded that I cannot imagine the effects of a Cat 5 hitting there. |
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Quote:That is one nasty looking storm! It appears to be somewhat larger than Emily also. |
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Good morning everyone! Well in a way it is a shame that Emily didn't get stronger because isn't it possible that could have changed the steering patterns a bit, and now it looks with the continued west movement, like a direct hit on Cozumel and Cancun. Last night I wondered about that but was too tired to make one more post. I had flhurricane fatigue. And I realized why the warnings are going along the top of the peninsula as well - because of all the winds they will get from the N as Emily goes inland, if she lands close to the N tip. Weird to think of N winds as being a problem because they are onshore. Also I see how different the strengths are in the different quadrants, and that the N of the storm is so much stronger than the southern part. So it is really sad to see that the entire N part of the penisula is going to get hammered, especially the beautiful tourist area. Well the first thing I did was look at the satellite to try to figure out what I could on my own, then read the advisories and discussions. I was surprised to see Emily looking so strong, stronger than I expected to see this morning, and again just so perfectly round. I guess it is "here we go again" because looking so good (except for the outflow to the S), and having warm water, it is possible she might still intensify. Still with all the land to the south and west, how can conditions be quite as good today as they were yesterday. One thing I was confused about was if an ERC did take place, and it seems that it did, since the eye changed diameter and went eliptical before I went to sleep last night, then why is the resulting new eyewall only 10nm? I don't know very much about this but thought the resulting eyewall would be larger. The eye doesn't look nearly as good as yesterday so I am assuming that the storm still has some reorg left to do to finish up the ERC cycle? Since pressure started dropping again I assume Emily is reorganizing now and we can expect to see her looking *better* on into the afternoon. |
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Taiwan actually gets hit pretty frequently. |
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Quote: Well this is interesting because the population is high. Every time a hurricane approaches a major city here it is like a nightmare. They don't have anywhere to go on Taiwan. So what do they do over there with a Cat 5 direct hit? Maybe there is something we could learn from Taiwan. |
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There are mountains in Taiwan, They have mudslides. In 2001 they had 2 typhoons hit in a month, they had hundreds of casualties. 2000-2001 I think they had 11. Not all Cat 5 thank goodness, but Cat 5s are less rare in the Pacific. |
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I found a site that has a boatload of live cams for both Cancun and Taiwan. I had to load an Active X control to see the Taiwan cams but it works really well. http://www.independentwx.com/ |
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Latest recon shows pressure increased to 946mb. Surprised the max winds for the advisory are still as high as 150mph. She picked up speed to 20mph. Sat images are looking different starting at 13:15 UTC. |
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Cancun might be spared the brunt of Emily if this track continues. It looks like Emily might come in well south of the area. Looks like Chetumal might be closer to the landfall point than Cancun. |
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Quote:I agree,but that puts Playa Del Carmen in worse shape.Looks like Cozumel and Playa will be on the worse side of Emily. |
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Its going to be interesting to follow the data that comes from moored bouy 42056 in the Yucatan Basin area of the West Caribbean over the next 24 hours. Emily should come very close to its postion I believe....Weatherchef... |
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OK. Taking into account the latest recon, and looking at the sat images, at first I thought what a mess, Emily is falling apart. Then I looked at the visual, and it seems to me that the tight inner core, now smaller, is still looking organized and good. Before, when Emily reorganized, she left a lot of the stuff on the edges behind, and the inner core emerged and grew into a nice round clean storm. I think this is what is happening now. However it is looking like she won't get more than 12 more hours to reorganize with the higher speed. So it will be interesting to see how soon it takes her to start getting her act together again and how fast she may intensify before landfall. It is interesting to try to understand what is happening, but of course I have no technical background in meteorology so it will be helpful if any of the moderators can provide the technical detail about what is happening now and what we can expect to see in the next 12 hours. |
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Quote: 42057 is adrift and from the data it looks like Emily went by her last night. No impressive readings; the SW side of the storm wasn't very strong at that time. 42056 is at 20N 85W. By the time Emily gets to 85W she is probably not going to be any further north than 19.3N. So how many miles in 0.7 lat? I don't think the inner core of strong winds will make it close enough to the buoy to see any readings like the ones of the Dauphin Island buoy last year before IVAN hit. |
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emily's cloud pattern got jarbled later this morning. recon says it isn't an erc... probably some subsidence intake near the end of the last erc overnight is my reckoning. emily was approaching the detritus of a weak upper low the other day, so maybe the remnant vorticity at the upper levels mixed up the outflow pattern or something. speculation.. either way the pressure is up to 946 which is typically a 3/4 borderline. the winds supported are a little higher according to recon.. i'd expect this to dip back down. path today should take emily in a little south of cozumel around midnight, back offshore near merida/progreso late tomorrow. spindpwn/spinup will probably resemble dennis crossing cuba about a week ago. think the left track bend prior to second landfall is slightly overdone, and that the storm will come in closer to the tx/mex border.. but not by much. cameron/willacy counties might get a few peripheral gales and a t.s. warning out of it... pretty sure it doesn't come close enough for significant damage, though. think second landfall intensity will be 3/4 borderline area. haven't given up on 99L. the low level vorticity is moving under the upper trough axis right now.. two maxes i can see. the southern max is weaker and moving mostly w near 23/58.. spotty convection out in front. the more formidable max is near 28/57 and moving wnw, with convection closer by. most of the convection associated with the wave is being forced near the exit region on the ne flank of that upper trough max near 20/60. as the wave axis passes the upper trough axis, it should start to generate a more conducive convective pattern for organization than the sheared pattern it's had for three days. if none of this happens in the next 36 hrs, or so... the whole thing is probably gone. if enough made it through the upper trough, though... it'll do some interesting things. SAL seems to have killed the wave action for now in the eastern atlantic. they may act up as they near the caribbean.. globals continue to forecast a wave-friendly environment for whatever regenerates when it gets back across... nothing showing right now to speak of. gfs is showing distant interest in a wave that comes off africa in about 9 days... tracking it as a discrete feature through day 16. nao has been mostly positive and soi as well.. oscillations in both can lead to more energetic mid-latitude breakaways and backing at low-latitudes... until they twitch again, it's up to the more energetic of the african waves to trigger disturbances. there is weak mjo action at play as well, so some time in august we may see a flash of that as well. HF 1656z17july |
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Emily on radar http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/Maximos(Animacion).gif http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg |
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Mirroring the cancun radar now since it is so slow to load: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php |
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Bouy 42056 is postioned at 19.87 N and 85.06 W. With the present postion of Emily at 18.6 N and 83.6 W its going to be a close one. The next 24 hours should reveal some impressive information in that vicinity. Watch the wind direction and speed, wave heights, and pressure. Almost as real time as you can get ....Weatherchef |
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This storm really looks like a mess right now. I'd be really surprised if the winds didn't fall to ~135MPH at the next update. |
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Quote:It's about 42 miles. 1º lat = aprx 60 miles. Someone correct me if that's wrong. |
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Post deleted by danielw |
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Depends largely on the longitude. 1 degree at the equator will be a larger distance than 1 degree at the North Pole. |
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Quote: That's fine for me considering it what it was. What I'm more concerned with is why it wasn't moved to admin area or the graveyard. We shouldn't be deleting posts unless it would cause the thread to break. PM me with stuff like this, though. |
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coastal flood watch has been issued for the central gulfcoast Emily will generate waves of a very long period between crests... which will travel northward across the Gulf and result in heavy surf and possible coastal flooding along area beaches late Monday and Monday night. The large waves could also result in erosion of beaches... including those areas previously damaged by Hurricane Dennis last weekend... and tropical storms Arlene and Cindy earlier this Summer. The west end of Dauphin Island Alabama will be particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding... as similar events have produced heavy surf and washover there several times over the past couple of years. Hurricane Mitch... while over the western Caribbean in October of 1998 as a very strong hurricane... produced long period swell which propagated northward across the Gulf... inundating parts of the western end of Dauphin Island. Along the Florida Panhandle coastline... heavy surf should be expected... but there is no precedent for extensive coastal flooding with this type of event. However... with the beaches severely eroded as a result of all the recent tropical activity... some minor coastal flooding could be possible late Monday and Monday night. 2 PM EDT position...19.0 N... 84.4 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 948 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT |
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Quote:Latitude is the same distance from Equator to pole. Longitude gets smaller from Equator to pole. |
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Was just looking on hurricane city and saw a model run of a new wave. Looks pretty interesting.. .... |
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As of 1650 hours at bouy 42056....postion 19.87n and 85.06w....Wind 35.0kts....Gust 44.7kts....Wave height 10.5ft....Pressure 29.83 and falling.......Weatherchef |
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Did I get those two reversed? I mean, even if I did, I can claim accuracy due to the ellipsoid nature of the Earth, but I'd hate to think that I made such a simple mistake |
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Well, what does the run indicate? |
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It has it going toward the Bahamas or around there |
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I'm pertty certain there have been no new model runs on that wave since yesterday so don't put too much into what you saw. |
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Conditions at buoy 42056 postion 19.87N AND 85.06W at 1750 GMT......Wind NE....Windspeed 31.1kts.....Gust 36.9 kts.....Wave height 16.1 ft....Pressure 29.78 and falling........Weatherchef |
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Quote:Quote:It's about 42 miles. 1º lat = aprx 60 miles. Someone correct me if that's wrong. OK so Emily's eye will be about 40m S of the buoy when it crosses around 85W, and it will be more than twice that distance away by the time it comes W of the buoy. Based on the most recent supplemental recon it is likely the buoy will only see at most 70kt winds, just over the threshold of hurricane force, so I am guessing you wouldn't expect to see wave heights over 30ft, maybe 35ft, and that only because it is the NE quad. |
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Does it look like shes moving more north ? |
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Mike, I think it was deleted because moving it would've killed much of the rest of the thread. I saw the article about that in the Orlando newspaper yesterday; it's better suited for the new Predictions forum, IMO. Truth be told, I'm not sure exactly what they are going to try to be getting out of it...real scientists are not going to place their money on a landfall pool for any tropical cyclone; there's simply too much at stake. Thus, it is going to be the semi-pros, the hobbiests, and the general public that tries to make some money off of the market. That will reduce the pools to wild guesses, the NHC forecast, model guidance forecasts, or media outlet forecasts...and I'm not sure what is to be gained there. If it is an attempt to see which forecast performs best, that is already done in a formal basis by the NHC each season. It's not like the stock market, where the goal is money; it is real life, with real lives at stake, and I'm not sure I see how having (essentially) a landfall pool is going to help matters. Perhaps something similar without using money can be adapted to a forecast module to teach students/the general public/others how to better forecast these storms, but this doesn't appear to do that. Just my two cents, however. |
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Mike, that picture you have on the front page of Emily is terrifyingly beautiful. |
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Quote:Just call it a 90º phase shift. |
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Back home and checking the sat images, Emily is looking a lot *better* (3:15p CDT) on the water vapor loop, even with the small scraggly eye. She certainly is the comeback kid. Looks like she is ready to get her act back together, only she really doesn't have a whole lot of time. But I bet she looks even *better* six hours from how, and the next recon will show a pressure drop. |
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Conditions at buoy 42056 as of 1950GMT...Wind NE.......Wind speed 44.7 kts.....Gusts 58.3 kts.....Wave height...22 ft.....Pressure 29.61 falling rapidly......Weatherchef |
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Looking at the Taipei webcams, the city is getting very gusty winds and torrential rains with the typhoon just offshore Taiwan. It's dark there now but should be light in an hour or so and it'll be very interesting to see the webcams then. |
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Watch out Texas There have been some changes in the track model guidance...likely due to better model analyses of the mid-latitude trough over the northwestern United States and its subsequent impact on the southern U.S. Ridge. Large-scale models are now calling for more of a weakness in the ridge over the western Gulf Coast. This causes the track guidance to forecast less of a westward turn while Emily is over the Gulf of Mexico.. |
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I don`t want to seem rude , but shouldn`t your last post be in the Other Storm Basins discussions. I thought we where talking about Emily in News Talkbacks.....Weatherchef |
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Let'em down gently guys. We still will not know where that Emily is going until she does her thing to the Yucatan. Then the next step will be how big is she and who does she want next. |
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Just doing a little checking, those were Nautical miles. Using the distance between the Equator and North Pole = 6222 miles (statute) and dividing by 90 (90º latitude between them) yields 69 statute miles per degree of latitude. So, 0.7º would = 48.3 statute miles. |
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Wow. Brings back some memories that I tried to keep from coming out. Rode out two typhoons mid-island near Taichung in 1968 and flew evac. to Itazuki Japan for another. Remember riding a motorcycle to Sun Moon Lake and the road washed out with about 2.0 ft left on the side of the mountain. Got the bike across but no one else could. Happened just after I stopped inside a tunnel to fix a problem. Also, in the late 80s took a train from Shanghai on the mainland south which took over 14 hours. Found out a typhoon had destroyed the track in front of us and the Chinese Army was fixing it as we went along. Got into the city (cant remember the name but it is famous for West Lake) and it was like a Hollywood movie. Thousands of Chinese peasants sitting on the ground in the rain around the train station. Had to walk to the hotel and it was the only one with a generator and air conditioning. Trees were down, buildings were destroyed and people were living in the streets. |
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LIPHIL ??? how is he doing ??? i know this should be someplace else in the forum, but I have been a long time LURKER & miss his insight. |
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He has been sick. We heard from him a while back but have not recently. |
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Anyone seen the recon schedule? Starting about 7pm-ish CDT there should be a lot of recon coming in about the storm. |
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Liphil should be back next week from a much needed vacation . |
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Last vis sat pic and Cozumel radar looks like a new eyewall is forming. |
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Quote: Could you post the link please? Thanks. http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php Don't use the Cozumel direct link, it is massively overloaded. The mirrioring I can do will keep it up longer if folks use it. Mike C |
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Quote:Cozumel radar is linked from this site's home page and the sat pics are linked from NHC.Quote: |
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Quote:Quote:Cozumel radar is linked from this site's home page and the sat pics are linked from NHC.Quote: No they only have a link to Cancun radar on the main page; can you please post the link? |
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http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/Maximos(Animacion).gif |
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Thanks much |
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Thanks to all the info on this site......I tried watching the Weather channel for updates, and you would hardly know that Emily was out there ready to make land fall on the Yucatan. This has been the most informative site for radars, etc. |
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Cool. I was looking for the Cuba radar too but couldn't find it. Dumb moment: Actually I did see the link to the Cancun radar...but you had said Cozumel, and when I saw the word Cancun for some reason I kept thinking it was Cayman and that radar wouldn't show anything right now. Too many C words huh. I just read in the last hour somewhere about the second eyewall but can't remember where I read it, but yes you can definitely see it. Well it'll be a race to see if Emily can reorg any more before hitting shore. Even if not, it appears that the eyewall is still going to pack a pretty hard punch. Just checked on buoy 42056 and sure enough wave height 32 ft and wind just under 60kt gusting to over 70kt. That was about as intense as I thought it was going to be, but maybe not since wind isn't coming out of the SE yet. |
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yeah mexico isnt a concern too the weather channel. now if it hits tx they will all over it. |
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Quote:Oooops! I meant Cancun. Was posting on another board that Cozumel may take a near direct hit. |
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I am a little surprised that there is not more coveage on TWC,Given the number of americans down there.The beaches down there change with just minor storms,I can only imagine what a cat 4 will do.There was not even a beach at Tulum,until a Hurricane made one.The Mexican Goverment has done very well at getting the people out of there.Most people should be safe now. |
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Wind speed may be down a bit at 8PM due to the apparent ERC as seen on Cancun radar. |
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The Weather Channel has Mike Bettis in the Cancun/ Cozumel area doing updates, and live reports. Either CNN or TWC reported late this afternoon, that the Last Flight out of the airports had left. They estimated 130,000 tourists left in the area. I believe I heard that 67,000 or so were from the U.S. They have moved the coastal plain area people to higher ground and/ or evacuation shelters. I heard one newscaster telling people to move to a higher floor. |
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The eye on the Cancun radar is clearly showing evidence of an eyewall replacement cycle, just like what was hinted at during the 5pm discussion. Within the next few hours, we'll see the rest of that inner eyewall collapse and an eye of 25-30mi in diameter consolidate in its place. Once again, it looks like another landmass might just be spared the worst of a storm due to an eyewall replacement cycle right before land...we'll have to see how much this one takes out of the storm, but throwing it into a state of reconsolidation right as it is about to hit land should keep some of the intensity in check, both before it hits land and in the hours across/just past land tomorrow. Given a little time over water Tuesday, the storm could well deepen once again in the warmest waters in the entire basin...though I'm not going to buy the deepening to 910-920mb that our MM5 is calling for. Outside shot at taking a run at its former intensity, but I don't think it'll have enough time. The further north it goes, the longer it sits over those waters...but also the more it interacts with the midlatitudes and the more likely it gets strong enough to have an eyewall replacement cycle occur near landfall. Further south keeps it over water a shorter period of time, which is both good and bad. Only time will tell as to what happens, and for now I see no reason to go against the NHC path, both in terms of intensity and track. |
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Winds are down to 135mph now 951mb |
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Well this may be going out on a limb but ever since awhile ago when the outflow started looking so good, it seems like Emily was on a roll again. Now it seems like this is the case, because the eyewall replacement which has been trying to happen for the longest time is completing, and I think there are enough hours left for the conditions to improve in the core. I am thinking a very very small but powerful center will result before landfall, but everywhere else, not much punch. Now it looks like one of the recon flights is targeted to arrive after the others and to hang around in the area for some hours, so perhaps there will be up-to-date readings of the environment around the core right up until landfall around 11 tonight. Well I'm gonna post this and go track down the 8pm update! |
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is this because of the eye wall replacement or is it over with her? |
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Ok looking at the various floaters at the nhc, it appears that Emily is falling apart *and* trying to make a hard right turn at the same time. What I think I'm seeing is the effect that land has on the hurricane, because it seriously looks like some sort of wall is just ahead of emily and the storm really doesn't want to go that way. I wonder if it could weaken the storm? I'll look again in a couple hours to see if it's more than a wobble or optical effect. But I wonder if something ... odd... is taking place? Any thoughts? -Mark |
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Storm surge is my biggest concern.What will the storm surge be now?Will going from 145mph to 135 make much of a difference?The main street there is only about 3 blocks from the ocean,I assume that will be wiped out.Just looked at the lastest loop,and she has got an nice eye again,in the last image. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html |
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Quote: What is the time on the latest sat image you are seeing? |
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She has an eye again,crap.She is looking much better.Just when I started to feel a little better,she is getting stronger again. [url=http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DAT A/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html[/url] |
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is that almost a td behind her? and is she regaining strength again? |
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She is gaining strength,no question.Just have to look at that last image. |
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why don't people flee these things ahead of time? they've known for a week for pete's sake. who wants to weather a cat 5 at a resort. Emily is not a CAT 5 |
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Quote:What makes you think they have not left??They have. |
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u think its a 5? lets just have a moment of silences and prayers for these people. this is gonna be bad. |
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Convection is still not entirely wrapped around. I wonder if cooler SSTs are upwelling in the shallower waters as she nears the coast. |
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est 67000 us haven't left. I know a couple on honeymoon that stayed too late and aport closed. don't they have tv's |
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OK first recon is on the NHC website, about an hour old, and pressure hasn't changed much, winds look like they're down to 130, maybe 125, thermal degree gradient low (2 deg). To be expected at this point. Doesn't it look like she could be downgraded to a Cat 3 at this point...but it is a couple hours away from the 11pm advisory but it will be interesting to see how she looks in two hours. |
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is that a td behind Emily?? If it is where is it going? |
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Quote:OK,but just look at that last image,to me it is looking much better,you can see a well defined eye. |
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Quote: The eyewall is closed. I think the reorg is just not completed, probably will take a couple more hours for the eyewall to finish rebuilding. Good thing is that now we'll have recon data! |
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The latest NOAA discussion mentions that it is looking to take a more northern turn and the prediction was adjusted, but this is not reflected in the prediction is it? What do you all think? |
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yeah our sister company is in corpus i hope they will be ok. i dont wish this on anyone. not even mexico. |
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Quote:Most all are in shelters,and safe.There are only so many flights out of there.Gudos to the Mexican Goverment,they did a great job. |
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Just received a call from my daughter who is with a group of teenagers in Merida after moving away from the east coast this morning....They have students on the 2cnd and 3rd floor of a 3 story building and are talking about shutting down the electricity. She is asking what floor would be best for the group to be on and approx what time they should make the move. Can anyone project what time might present the worst case scenario for them? They had their first band of rain go through about 2 hrs ago. |
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ill pray for your daughter. my friend went on a cruise down there im a little worried. |
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They will probably be just fine where they are and will probably just see some gusty wind and some rain. The eye will pass considerably to the north of them, it will have been over land for quite some time, the intense part of the storm is extremely small, and that intensity doesn't last very far inland. So all they will see is a lot of rain and some gusts, maybe up to 25mph, occasionally. In other words, they could be on any floor, they could go outside in the rain, they will be fine. |
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remember piedras negras? could it be that bad? |
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Quote:I'm glad they made Merida. I'd vote for the second floor-building above and below. Besides, the higher up, the higher the wind speed. Emily should be a much weaker storm by then. Move before sunrise. |
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Quote:They will be fine in Merida,I have been there and it has many solid buildings and is far enough away from the coast.The worst for Merida will be very early Monday,around 5-9am. |
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Thanks, all.....Sounds like it won't be too bad where she is.....I guess all that can be done at this point, has been done! Hopefully, it will move quickly across the Yucan.... |
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Quote: Could that become a depression pretty soon? |
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ne of her does that look like that wave is developing? 90 miles from cozumel. |
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My friends from there that are staying here in Ft Laud.,are getting drunk at the local clubs here.As I said before no booze in Mexico when a hurricane is coming.They just hope they have something to return to.My other friends went to hotels in Cancun and Merida.Were all very upset about our beloved Playa Del Carmen. |
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The northern(well, more of a northern component) jog should just be a result of it being the end of the EWRC, right? |
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Looks like the eye may come ashore around Tancah. If so, I really doubt if Cancun will see much of anything as far as wind. Forgot for the moment they'd still get storm surge. |
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Quote:That is only about 10 miles north of Tulum,I can not see it hitting that far south.Now the eye in not looking great,I give up.For 3 years I was up and down this coast,I do know it well.It is one of the coolest places on earth. |
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Vis sat at 2345Z still shows a ragged eye structure - Convection on East and West sides and overcast. I'm guessing 120 -125 MPH at 11PM. |
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I've checked both the WV and IR imagery. I appears to me that the eye may be displaced to the NW. I see a tight curl in the last hour NW of where the ERC was taking place. I'm using http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/goes |
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Whoa....the eye is projected to pass very near Merida, and given the forward speed of the storm and the relatively flat terrain of the Yucutan, it'll likely keep hurricane intensity throughout. Winds to hurricane force can be expected in the region -- maybe a little less if it passes just east of there -- with gusts higher. The main threat will be rain and flooding, yes, but wind damage is likely in the region too. I don't want to raise an alarm, but they are very much in the projected path. Being a story or so up is fine to keep from feeling any potential flooding impacts; being higher up isn't due to the higher winds aloft. To take on some other questions... * There is no TD behind Emily right now. Anything near Emily is an artifact of the storm itself, while there is nothing else of interest until you get east of the Lesser Antilles. The convection you see there is currently rather disorganized and part of the interaction between the old 99L and an upper-level low. Not likely for development at this time in the next few days due to the upper low and dry air in the region. Upper lows can work their way down to the surface and spin up something, but I don't see it really happening here...and even if it does, it'd take several days. * The overall satellite appearance on Emily has improved from earlier, but it is nowhere near the intensity that it was just a day ago. Even a 20mph drop in winds -- I suspect it may be a little more than that before landfall -- is an exponential drop in damage. Given the small size of the storm, that's a lot. I suspect the storm is feeling the influences of the upper low over the Bay of Campeche, both in the northward jog over the past couple hours and a slightly sheared appearance. Wobbles can be expected to landfall, given the reorganization of the storm, but a maybe slightly further north motion than we've been seeing can be expected in the short-term (~6-12hr), evening back out more towards the west thereafter. * Why have people not left? Well, while there are a number of resorts through the region, there are a lot of people in that region who simply cannot leave. Where else would they go? It's just like in the United States, where people go to shelters or to safe houses...when you are in an isolated region with your entire family with you, where are you going to go? Most people there have taken precautions and should come through the storm relatively okay. It's nothing they want to deal with, of course, but their preparations and lead time are just the same that we get. * Wave action is going to be very high near where the storm makes landfall, despite the dropoff in intensity. The wave action has been building up with the storm for many days now; the fast translation speed of the storm has aided in this, allowing the waves to build and build and build. The jog northward and overall small size of the storm may have helped to contain these effects somewhat, but they will still be felt. The Weather Channel graphics earlier today were showing a broad 1-3' area of water rise...with knowledge of where the center is going to make landfall (give or take) now, I would ramp that up to over 10' near the landfall point, dropping off from there. |
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Thanks Clark.May I ask you about what you think the damage to Playa Del Carmen will be?Most everything there is right on the beach or very close.I know I am asking alot ,but there are people here with me that would really like to know if they will have a town to go back to.How deep will the water be say,3 blocks from the ocean there.Will Cozumel be enough to help with the storm surge in Playa.Please just give me your opinon on the damage to Playa Del Carmen.Thank you very much. |
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I did get carried away, didn't I! Well a very nice line of thunderstorms is passing through. I'm up on the leading edge in a southern suburb of Mpls but the entire nasty thing is starting to bow out further down south, and we just started getting a lot of lightning. Typical MN fun after we get an unusually warm day. Temps will be a lot lower tomorrow. |
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No visible eye on the last frame of the IR loop - 0045Z. |
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Thanks for your view, Clark. I did think Merida was in a direct path, and was confused as to what would take the force down with the lack of any elevation. I know it is not that close to the coast, but did not think there was enough real estate in between landfall and Merida to take it down much. |
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Quote:Or is there one a little farther north??This one is driving me nuts!Eye,no eye,eye,no eye. |
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Quote: I saw that on the 00:15 water vapor and thought, no. Then I saw the 00:45 and 01:15 and was !what! I have no understanding of what's going on now, except that Emily's last bid to reorganize might have failed because she is so close to land. |
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Quote:Quote:That is only about 10 miles north of Tulum,I can not see it hitting that far south.Now the eye in not looking great,I give up.For 3 years I was up and down this coast,I do know it well.It is one of the coolest places on earth. Actually I just heard TWC say Tulim...which I had considered but thought a little too far south. Also they just said pressure up to 955...so they must have access to more of the recon data we haven't seen yet, and the storm is still weakening. |
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Quote: On the current track from the NHC Merida can expect 9 hours of tropical storm force winds starting 7-18-05 05edt peaking at 54 mph at 7-18-05 08edt. If you need any close up maps just let me know. Hurrevac will be up all night long . |
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Thanks....going to be a long night............ |
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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 (edited~danielw) AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0018Z. NORMALLY THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 120 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AND IS NOW UP TO 955 MB. THEREFORE IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER AT THIS TIME...115 KT. THIS IS STILL CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...AND EMILY REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN SHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE FLUCTUATING...BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...EARLY ON MONDAY. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/180253.shtml |
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winds picking up strong still power in cozumel |
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Looks like the outer edges are onshore now. |
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hey bob! give us a shout out here on flhurricane.com im praying for these people. i can hear ya on hurricane city. gl bob! |
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Thanks for the updates.Our son is on Cozumel and we have no word from him since he left hotel for shelter.Please try to keep us posted with condition updates and any news abput damage in Cozumel.Our son is supposed to be in a convention center in Cozumel. Our prayers are with all on the mayan coast. Concerned Dad |
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i have a friend that was on a cruise down there hope she is ok. im praying for everyone there. |
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A new thread has started: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel |